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Tuesday, 7 May 2013

Tennis Picks Madrid 2013 (May 7th)

There has been a complaint in recent years that there isn't the needle on the tennis courts between the best players in the game, but I have never really bought into that line of thinking. Anyone that has seen Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer battle down the years will tell you the same thing as there clearly isn't a lot of love lost between the players, albeit they do have a lot of respect for one another.

However, most of those issues are what we perceive by watching body language and perhaps the odd barbed comment in a press conference, but for the most part, tennis players try and steer clear of anything controversial, particularly when it comes to other pros on the Tour.

With that in mind, it was interesting to hear Sloane Stephens' comments about Serena Williams this week, especially after they seemingly had a fairly close relationship, or so the media kept telling their readers. However, Stephens has disputed that and went so far as to question why Serena had been keeping her distance ever since their match at the Australian Open which was won by the younger American.

Hopefully we will get some kind of response from Serena tomorrow after her Second Round match in Madrid on what is a busy day of tennis. The big names in the Men's draw, Rafael Nadal aside, are all in action in what looks a packed schedule in Madrid.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 5.5 games v Marius Copil: One of the dark horses at the French Open could be Stanislas Wawrinka who backed up a decent performance in Monte Carlo by winning the Portugal Open last week with a convincing win over David Ferrer in the Final. I am not suggesting Wawrinka will win at Roland Garros, but he is certainly a dark horse that is capable of beating one of the big names that will be in the draw and I like his chances of opening his campaign in Madrid with some success.

There is the concern that Wawrinka was playing up until Sunday, but it was only across the border in Portugal and he should be full of confidence in this tournament.

His opponent is a young player from Romania, but not one that has had a lot of success on the clay courts in the past and has actually enjoyed the hard courts more than this surface. Marius Copil hasn't had a lot of results on the surface which makes me think he could take out Wawrinka in the form the Swiss man was displaying last week and I do think he will come through 4 and 2 in this one.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Florian Mayer: This is the first time that Andy Murray and Florian Mayer will meet since a crazy Quarter Final at the Rome Masters in 2011 when Mayer took the first set 6-1, but only won 2 more games in a three set loss.

I would argue that Murray is a much stronger player now with the Grand Slam under his belt and there is a definite argument to suggest Mayer is on the way down the Rankings and I think that will show up in this Second Round match.

The last time we saw Murray, we saw him take a real beating at the hands of Stanislas Wawrinka, but Mayer is a different type of player and one that will allow Murray to play his most natural game of a lot of spin and variation.

It can be awkward at first against Mayer, but the German's serve remains a weakness and I think Murray will be able to come through fairly comfortably after a tough first set. It won't surprise me at all if the score is 4 and 1 for Murray in this one.


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games v Nadia Petrova: These two veteran Russians will be well aware of what the other wants to do on the court, but I do think Svetlana Kuznetsova's better movement and slightly more consistent groundstrokes will help her move on to the Third Round here in Madrid.

The injury to Kuznetsova that saw her miss a lot of tennis at the back end of last season has seen her Ranking plummet to 40 in the World, but she is far better than that and I think I am more surprised that Petrova is actually as high as 11 in the Rankings.

There is every chance that we will see this go to three sets, but I think Kuznetsova will be a little too strong and move through.


MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.74 Units (4 Units Staked, + 93.5% Yield)

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