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Monday, 6 May 2013

Tennis Picks Madrid 2013 (May 6th)

The second big Masters event on the clay courts has begun in Madrid and the television cameras will pick up the event from Monday after only five First Round matches were scheduled for Sunday. My outright picks from the tournament this week can be found here.

Most of the big names in the Men's draw won't be starting their path to the winner's circle until Tuesday or Wednesday, while the Women's draw has all of the top players getting in on the action from the First Round.

It is a big month of tennis starting this week, some would argue it is a big couple of months with two Grand Slam events and two Masters being played, and hopefully this will be the start of a productive period for the blog.

Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Nicolas Almagro should experience plenty of support in Madrid and this looks a decent match up to get things going in this tournament against Tobias Kamke.

There is no doubt that Kamke can get things going at times in his matches, but more often than not his best success will come on the faster courts where his attempts at winners are a little more productive. On the clay courts, he would have to rely on consistency and that isn't always a strong point, particularly when it comes to playing someone who is as comfortable on the clay courts as Almagro certainly is.

Kamke will also be a little more familiar with the current conditions in Madrid, following the removal of the blue court experiment from twelve months ago, after coming through qualifying, but his serve is a definite weakness that can be exposed on the clay.

I also think Almagro looked in very good nick when reaching the Final in Barcelona a couple of weeks ago, only finding Rafael Nadal too good for him and I do like his chances of winning this match 4 and 2.

Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Javier Marti: There is no doubting Grigor Dimitrov's natural ability on a tennis court, but it is wonderful to see the Bulgarian putting in the hard work that will surely help him reach the top 10 in the World Rankings sooner rather than later. In my personal opinion, Dimitrov certainly has the talent to become a future Grand Slam winner and a World Number 1, but he has to keep working hard at his game.

Dimitrov has pushed some of the biggest names on the Tour in matches throughout 2013 and he will have another chance to take on Novak Djokovic if he can get through this First Round clash.

He is playing a young Spaniard in Javier Marti to open his campaign here and it is clear that you have to take any player that grows up on the clay court seriously. However, he has struggled when playing at this level and was comfortably beaten in matches against Jarkko Nieminen and Mikhail Youzhny last season and I would say that Dimitrov has more ability than both of those players.

Marti has also tried to qualify for Main Tour events all season and failed to do so and I think Dimitrov will be strong enough to knock him off with a 3 and 3 win.

Jerzy Janowicz v Sam Querrey: The clay court season is not the favourite time of the year for the big-serving Americans and it hasn't been a good time for Sam Querrey. It looks like he hasn't had the best First Round draw considering Jerzy Janowicz, although it has to be said that the majority of success the Pole has had on the surface has come below the Main Tour level.

This season Janowicz has lost both of his matches played on clay, but he could take advantage of the fact that Querrey is yet to play a match on the surface and the American has also been suffering with an injury that has kept him off the Tour since the Davis Cup tie against Serbia a couple of months ago.

With Querrey likely still going to need some time to get himself adjusted to the slower courts, he could have a tough time in this one and that is the main reason I like Janowicz at the prices. However, don't be surprised if he needs three sets and this is fairly nip and tuck towards the end.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.07 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jerzy Janowicz @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)

Daily Picks2-3, - 2.74 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.40% Yield)
Outright Picks1-1, + 0.50 Units (4 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Season 2013+ 39.04 Units (531 Units Staked, + 7.35% Yield)

Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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