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Tuesday, 28 May 2013

French Open Day 3 Picks 2013 (May 28th)

The weather in Paris is supposedly taking a turn for the worse as the week goes on so that will mean disruption in matches and a lot of delays if the forecasters have got things right. The temperature will remain at a decent level, but the showers and rain period will have the fans wishing they could have the roof over the main court sooner rather than later.

One player that won't be concerned about what happens with the weather is Tomas Berdych who became the biggest casualty of the First Round after being upset by Gael Monfils. The Frenchman was in inspired form as he really played a much more aggressive brand of tennis than fans will be used to and it goes back to the point people have made about the Monfils game for some time- he has a lot of talent, but had to get himself out of a position where his mentality was happy to let opponents dictate play and Monfils could just use his athletic ability to return as many balls as possible.

That tactic is never going to let Monfils move into the top ten, where his talent belongs, but the performance against Berdych was hopefully a sign of things to come. He will need to be on his game as he has set up an intriguing Second Round encounter against Ernests Gulbis, another player trying to reach his potential and one that could go very deep here at Roland Garros now the top seed is out of his section up to the Quarter Finals.

Another player who might be a touch disappointed with their result on Monday would be Laura Robson as she was comfortably brushed aside by former World Number 1 Caroline Wozniacki. This certainly looked like a match that Robson could win, but she has to work on her serve ahead of the grass court season as it remains too much of a liability when it should really be one of her strengths.

I have constantly said that Robson has the talent to really go far on the WTA Tour, but her results have failed to get up to a level expected on a consistent basis. She has recently split with her coach so I do hope she thinks long and hard about the next person she employs in that role as working on her serve and some tactics in matches will help Robson start moving up the Rankings.

Tommy Haas - 6.5 games v Guillaume Rufin: Tommy Haas had to withdraw from Dusseldorf last week as he has an illness, but he has had a few days to get ready for the French Open and I think he has a real chance to go deep at this years tournament.

Haas will first have to deal with one of the French players at Roland Garros, so I expect Guillaume Rufin to have the home support and really want to put on a show in front of those fans. I am also a little concerned with the fact that Haas can sometimes lose focus in matches and he may end up dropping a set, but the German also has the game to pressure Rufin on his own serve and find a way to grab a couple of breaks of serve in a single set.

The young Frenchman does have a decent game, but I have a feeling it will translate onto the faster courts a lot more effectively than it does on the clay courts, even taking into account his success at Challenger level on this surface. I think Haas is going to show his experience to come through with a 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 win.

Victor Hanescu - 4.5 games v Bernard Tomic: This is a simple pick for me based on the fact that Victor Hanescu seems to be the more solid player of the two on the clay courts, while Bernard Tomic may not be completely focused on this match.

I might be wrong, but the incident with Tomic's father and his training partner has to be playing on the mind of the young Australian and it does look a big ask for him to perform on his worst surface under those circumstances.

The fact that Tomic is up against Hanescu, a player that would consider the clay courts his most effective surface, also seems to be a reason to back the Romanian to come through fairly comfortably and that is what I will be expecting.

Lucie Hradecka - 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: Ashleigh Barty certainly has a lot of potential, but the youngster doesn't have a lot of experience playing Tour matches and could be exposed as she is facing Lucie Hradecka. The latter made it to the Final in Strasbourg last week and she is very comfortable on the clay courts and that may give her the edge.

I expect this will be close for a while and I expect Barty to put in a much closer match than when she played Petra Kvitova in the First Round last season, but Hradecka should be a little too tough when it is all said and done.

This match could easily just have Hradecka coming through with a break more in each set and recording her path into the Second Round with a 64 64 win.

MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 6.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victor Hanescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucie Hradecka - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

French Open Update: 2-4, - 3.90 Units (12 Units Staked, - 32.5% Yield)

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