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Friday, 10 May 2013

Tennis Picks Madrid 2013 (May 10th)

After all the controversy regarding the blue clay here in Madrid last year, the organisers of the tournament will feel much more comfortable as all the headlines this time around are from the tennis being played.

However, it has been a tournament full of surprises as some of the big names have exited the event very early, especially on the Men's side of the draw. Roger Federer was the latest casualty yesterday, while Andy Murray is very fortunate to still be involved after a really poor display for the most part against Gilles Simon.

Victoria Azarenka and Petra Kvitova are the big names from the Women's draw that have already left the tournament and it is no surprise it has been a tough week for the picks being made.

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: Rafael Nadal is now the clear favourite to win this tournament from the ATP side and I think he is going to be too strong for David Ferrer in this Quarter Final.

Ferrer has certainly played well, but not looked entirely himself so far this week or for the last couple of weeks in fact, and I think it will be tough for him to reverse the trends from the last two times he has faced Nadal.

In those occasions, Ferrer has lost all 5 sets they have played against one another and won a grand total of 7 games as Nadal has found it fairly comfortable to get rid of him. If Ferrer serves well, he could potentially keep this close, but I do think Nadal will find a way to grab a couple of breaks in one set and come through 2 and 4 in this one.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Stanislas Wawrinka: These two are becoming a little more familiar with one another as this is their fourth meeting on the clay courts in the last couple of seasons, including a three set win for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Monte Carlo last month.

I understand that the layers set this match with the Frenchman as the underdog simply because the clay courts are his worst surface, while it is arguably the best surface for Stanislas Wawrinka, but I don't buy into that line of thinking.

While the backhand wing is certainly favouring Wawrinka, the serve and the forehand lands on Tsonga's side of the edge in the match and I think he does find a way to force the issue a little more than Wawrinka does. I think Tsonga just has the capability of winning 'cheaper' points on serve that will lend him the chance of winning this match, although it is bound to be close again.

There is every chance this one goes to three sets, but the conditions here in Madrid and the bigger shots should go in Tsonga's favour and I think he is worth backing here.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.31 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-7, - 8.26 Units (20 Units Staked, - 41.30% Yield)

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