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Monday, 14 May 2012

Tennis Picks May 14th (Rome)

The layers have taken their time putting up markets for the first real days play at the Rome event so this post has had to come out later than planned. However, the matches I have short-listed still have some time before they begin so plenty of time to follow if you like them as much as I do.

David Nalbandian - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos: I like the veteran to get the better of his younger opponent today as I think his returning game will cause the Spaniard plenty of problems.

David Nalbandian had a tough draw in Madrid last week, but he is still capable on his day to cause problems for opponents in tournaments. However, I do have a slight concern that he still has some inconsistent performances these days and that could spell trouble against someone who can serve decently as Albert Ramos can.

Ramos' best performances have come on the clay courts throughout his career, but he has had some tough losses lately and I think Nalbandian will still be too strong for him.

Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: I know Robin Haase has the service prowess to win his games his easily, but I think the slower surface can expose the inconsistencies in his ground game and that is an area that Stanislas Wawrinka can expose.

Wawrinka is a tough clay court player and one that has enjoyed playing in Rome in the past. It has taken the best players in the World to stop his runs in recent weeks and he is playing an opponent that can mentally check out of matches when he falls behind.

The Swiss player has also won all 4 matches against Haase in the past, including a 6-1, 6-4 win in Estoril a couple of weeks ago.

Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Julia Goerges has been surprisingly poor in recent weeks on the clay courts just a year after having so much success on the slower surfaces, but I think she will be a little too strong for Aleksandra Wozniak.

Wozniak has recently been playing at a lower level than the likes of Goerges and I think this will be a tough test for her, but it will all depend on which Goerges turns up.

If the shot-making player arrives, I think she wins fairly comfortably, but the only concern is whether the unforced error machine is in operation which will make this far closer than it should be.

Goerges has beaten Wozniak comfortably in the past on two occasions so I will look for her to complete a third win today.

Svetlana Kuznetsova + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: These two players are very evenly matched so I am a little surprised that Svetlana Kuznetsova has been given as many games in the handicap as she has.

Kuznetsova was forced to retire with a thigh injury around three weeks ago, but she played in Madrid last week and really pushed Victoria Azarenka in what was ultimately a losing effort. The Russian player has a strong pedigree on the clay courts in the past and there is every chance she can win this match outright, but I expect her to at least push Ana Ivanovic.

Ivanovic remains an enigma despite her hook up with Nigel Sears and she continues to put in a lot of inconsistent performance. At her best, Ivanovic is a really tough player to beat and she can take matches away from opponents, but anything less than that and she is capable of throwing in a stinker.

Kuznetsova has won 2 of the last 3 meetings between the players including a three set win on a clay court in the Fed Cup around a month ago. If this one goes to three sets, I would expect Kuznetsova will be in a strong position to at least get the cover even in a losing effort.

MY PICKS: David Nalbandian - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacles (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 3.5 games @ 1.95 Panbet (2 Units)

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