Almagro has looked a different character so far in the 2012 season, one that is playing with plenty of belief and positive outlook on his own game. The conditions here in Madrid should also favour his big hitting and allow him to get some shots through David Ferrer, but it is the consistency of the latter that is likely to lead to Almagro's downfall.
Ferrer will always force an opponent to hit one ball too many and will force Almagro to get closer and closer to the lines and that will soon lead to errors. David Ferrer can also point to the fact that he has been a fairly easy winner against Almagro in their last three meetings, all on clay, and he would have covered this spread on offer on all of those occasions.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: I think the Roger Federer win over Milos Raonic in the last Round cannot be under-estimated in any way, shape or form as he did brilliantly to hang in against an opponent whose massive game would have been magnified on the courts in Madrid.
This match should be much more to Federer's liking as he will be given plenty of chances to dictate the points as Richard Gasquet seems to love doing his work from miles behind the baseline. There are occasions the Frenchman comes in and volleys, but he seems to retreat under pressure and that is where Federer will be able to control the rallies.
Federer is also likely to be given chances on the Gasquet serve and, with his favouring serving first, I think the Swiss master may only need a break in the first two sets to cover this spread.
Gasquet has lost 9 of the 11 meetings with Federer, but may look to the positives of beating Federer on a clay court last year in Rome, but I would be surprised if he can hang in and do that here.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: Novak Djokovic was disgusted with the court in his Second Round win, but I do think the experience he had will serve him in good stead for the rest of the tournament and I expect a much better performance against a more dangerous opponent in the form of Stanislas Wawrinka.
Wawrinka is more than comfortable on a clay court and he has enjoyed a couple of straight forward wins to get to this stage of the tournament. He has also only lost close matches against Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro on the clay courts this season and will be a real test for Djokovic. However, I think his best shot, the back hand, is negated by Djokovic and that is why he is 2-11 against the World Number 1 in his career.
This will be their first meeting in 2012, but I think Djokovic is the stronger player in almost all departments and that should give him the edge if he can escape the negative mentality he has about this court.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: There is no doubt in my mind that Marin Cilic is getting back to the form that moved him just outside the World Top Ten after recovering from an injury that hurt his beginning of the 2012 season. This, however, looks a really tough match up for him and one I think he is still not ready to overcome.
Juan Martin Del Potro has been in very good form all season and comes into this tournament having recorded a win in Estoril last week. There is a concern that all the tennis he has played recently will catch up with him, but he has looked solid enough for the most part so far here in Madrid.
Del Potro has also handed Cilic as recently as last month in the Davis Cup when he gave up just 4 games to the Croatian in three sets played and I just think the Argentinian has too much for Cilic right at this moment.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.70 Units (12 Units Staked)
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