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Saturday 26 May 2012

French Open Preview and Outright Picks (2012)

The second Grand Slam of the tennis calender is upon us and this is the beginning of a hectic few months where the French Open, Wimbledon, the Olympic and the US Open titles will all be decided.

I will preview both the Men's and Women's events below and any outright picks recommended and the daily picks from the tournament will begin on Sunday as we have the First Round split over the first three days of the event.


Men's French Open Preview
First Quarter
The World Number 1 and top seeded player at the event is Novak Djokovic and that means he is given the honour of sitting on top of the draw.

2012 has not been as good as 2011 was at the same stage, but Djokovic can make history in becoming the first player since 1969 to hold all four Majors at the same time having already won in Australia earlier this season.

I was more than a little surprised to read a report on ESPN that Djokovic has some dangerous players in his section, although it did seem it was written by someone who may not have seen much tennis since 2009. It was mentioned that the likes of Jurgen Melzer, Nikolay Davydenko and Fernando Verdasco are 'dangerous floaters' in this section, but none of those three can really be expected to cause a surprise against Djokovic in the form he has shown over the last 18 months.

I mean Melzer has won just 2 of 7 matches on the clay courts this season, while falling in the Second Round last year at this event, Davydenko is far removed from where he was when he won the 2009 End of Year Championships, and Verdasco's belief against the best players struggles to last more than a set these days (I am ignoring his win over Rafael Nadal on the Madrid blue courts).

Djokovic shouldn't have too many problems in this section with the Fourth Round clash with Verdasco his biggest challenge ahead of a Quarter Final with either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Stanislas Wawrinka or Gilles Simon.

Again, I don't expect any of those three players to pose too many problems for Djokovic, although Tsonga could have his best showing at his home tournament if the conditions stay as they are which will favour his big serving game. The Frenchman may have to beat Wawrinka in the Fourth Round if he is to reach his first Quarter Final here and earn some revenge from the five set Third Round loss to the same player last season.

The biggest news in this section could involve Brian Baker, a former junior Finalist at this event but one who has come back from injuries to earn a Wild Card spot in the draw. Baker reached the Final in Nice last week and his story will be one I am sure you will read if he can beat Xavier Malisse in the First Round and set up a potential meeting with Gilles Simon in the Second Round.

Prediction: I would be absolutely gobsmacked if Novak Djokovic has dropped more than a couple of sets let alone not get through to the Semi Final

Second Quarter
The biggest question in the early stages of the draw is to see how the top four players have been split in the draw and it is Roger Federer who joins Djokovic in the top half of the draw, although this does look the toughest section so far.

That is down to the fact that Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych have both been placed in the quarter, two players that were potential dark horses before the draw was even made. I was seriously hoping Berdych would have been in the same section as Andy Murray as I would have heavily favoured the big serving Czech player to get through to the Semi Final but this is the worst case scenario as far as I am concerned.

Roger Federer may feel a little disappointed with the draw, but he can't have too many complaints as his section within the quarter looks fairly straight-forward for him to solve. A potential Second Round clash with David Nalbandian will be one for the purists, but there is nothing before the Quarter Final that will bother the Swiss man as far as I can see.

The likes of Andy Roddick, Radek Stepanek and Feliciano Lopez are much more dangerous on faster surfaces.

The Fourth Round may provide the epic battle between Del Potro and Berdych and you have to think that Federer may be presiding over scraps in the Quarter Final no matter which of those players comes through the draw.

Marin Cilic could be a potential spoiler for Del Potro in the Third Round, while Berdych needs to erase memories of his First Round exit last year, but I would expect the top seeded players to meet in the Fourth Round and then the winner to face Federer.

Prediction: At first glance, this looks a horrible quarter for Roger Federer, but the draw has panned out in such a way that I think he will be able to breeze through to the Quarter Finals and take advantage of a tired opponent in the Quarter Final to move through.

Third Quarter
The third quarter has been the one that most consider a surprise can be sprung as Andy Murray has not had much clay court tennis in his locker this year and has been vocal about issues with his back that he believes he has had to play through since December.

That has had people scrambling for other players to back to come out of the quarter, but I think those players have their own issues to address if they are to take advantage of any lingering issues Murray has.

The main player people will focus on is the tenacious David Ferrer, but he has flattered to deceive throughout his career on the clay courts of Roland Garros and has not been beyond a Quarter Final despite achieving so much success on other clay courts. I don't think there are too many people out there that would have predicted Ferrer having greater success at both the Australian and US Opens than he has had in Paris.

Ferrer could have a couple of tough tests to negotiate if he is to make it to the Quarter Final here as a potential Third Round clash with Mikhail Youzhny could pose problems as well as a Fourth Round clash scheduled against John Isner.

However, both of those players have had their own problems this season, although Isner is an interesting character with the conditions at Roland Garros generally making their courts a little faster than other clay courts. With his serve, Isner will cause problems for opponents, although I don't know how he will handle the heat in Paris if he is involved in some long matches, something that is a possibility when he struggles in his returning game and can be involved in plenty of tie breaks.

The other player that people seem to be enamoured with is Richard Gasquet- Gasquet beat Andy Murray en-route to a good run in Rome recently, but he is under immense pressure in his home tournament and has flattered to deceive in the past.

The Frenchman did have his best showing here in Paris last season when he reached the Fourth Round and, while the first couple of rounds favours him, he does have an awkward match with Alexandr Dolgopolov scheduled for the Third Round and then would have to play Andy Murray in the Fourth Round.

It is Gasquet's win over Andy Murray in Rome earlier in the month that has inspired people to believe he can come out of the quarter, but I think they are under-estimating the pressure on his shoulders in front of a public that are not shy about showing their unhappiness with a performance. Murray can also point to the fact that he had MANY chances in their clash in Rome, a venue where Gasquet also reached the Semi Final in 2011 so clearly enjoys, and he also recovered from two sets down to beat Gasquet here in 2010.

Prediction: There are enough doubts about other players in this section to think Andy Murray will make it through, although I would favour David Ferrer against him IF he can find his form here after struggling so often in the past.

Fourth Quarter
I was going to start this section off by saying that Rafael Nadal could not have picked a better draw himself... But then remembered that he DID pick the draw himself so I guess he couldn't be happier.

The highest seeded player in the section is Janko Tipsarevic, a personal favourite of mine, but Nadal won't have to see him until the Quarter Final at the earliest and I see almost no problems for him before that stage.

The first three rounds here look to pose few problems, with the biggest threat being a potentially awkward Third Round meeting with Ivo Karlovic. However, the big serving Croatian is not the same problem as a couple of years ago and Nadal will not be overly concerned about that clash if it happens.

One player who could be an issue if the conditions stay as they are is Milos Raonic- the Canadian has already caused problems for the likes of Roger Federer on a clay court this season, and he has the tools that can make life very difficult, especially at Roland Garros where the balls tend to move faster and the courts really play quick when they are under a hot sun.

Raonic would have to beat Juan Monaco in the Third Round, no easy task in itself these days, and there are also some concerns as to how he would handle best of five matches in the heat that is expected in Paris, and overall it would seem Nadal cannot be happier.

While the draw says Tipsarevic would meet Nadal in the Quarter Final, I would suggest that Nicolas Almagro is the most likely opponent for Nadal. Almagro comes into the event having won the tournament at Nice last week and he seems to be playing with much more belief this season than he has previously.

The Spaniard doens't have an easy draw, but I think he is playing with enough confidence to see him through to a Fourth Round with Tipsarevic and I would favour him to win that match.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal... Nothing more to say!

Winner
I am not going to offer you any surprises here and I am going to suggest that Rafael Nadal wins this tournament- he has been playing well on the clay courts and has also got the mental belief back in his game having beaten Novak Djokovic in two clay court Finals already this season.

Ignore the result at Madrid when he clearly was unhappy with the blue courts and played as such, but take into consideration the relative ease in which he won at Rome and Monte Carlo.

It is funny to think Nadal was odds against to win this tournament last year, but he has to remain the call with the way he has been playing despite his price shortening since the draw was made.

The other Semi Final between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic would be harder to call, although the fact that Djokovic has won 6 of their last 7 meetings, including at the last two Grand Slams, has slightly edged me towards the Serbian. However, the conditions in Paris will favour Roger Federer and the way he wants to play the game and he will also have the mental edge after beating Djokovic here last season.

Last season I tipped Federer at 17.00 as an each-way selection, but he looks a little short at 11.00 this year considering his record against Djokovic and the fact he has a tough looking Quarter Final in prospect.

While I will take Nadal on the outright, I am also going to have an interest in a market put up by Bet Victor where they are offering 3.00 that the Champion, no matter who it is, will lose less than 3 sets... I favour Nadal to win, and I don't see him dropping too many sets along the way if I am honest and that looks a decent price considering Federer and Djokovic also have some pretty straight-forward matches before the Final. It looks a pick that can be laid off at the appropriate time, if at all, and will be my second selection from the Men's event along with Nadal.


Women's French Open Preview
First Quarter
The World Number 1 and Number 1 seed at the French Open is Victoria Azarenka and she has been given a kind draw to get up and running in the tournament. Azarenka had to pull out in Rome with a shoulder injury and there have been real concerns about her fitness ahead of this tournament.


There is also a potential threat looming in front of her as diminutive Dominika Cibulkova is a potential Fourth Round opponent. After a couple of great seasons on the Tour, Cibulkova has not really played up to that level in 2012 so far, but she has proven to be more than just a thorn in the side of Azarenka in the past.


Their last 5 meetings have all gone to the full three sets distance and although Azarenka has won 4 of those, Cibulkova has really pushed her all the way and reached match points in a couple of those contests. If Azarenka is not feeling at 100%, there is a big chance that this could be the end of the road for the World Number 1.


Cibulkova will have a tough Third Round match to negotiate if she is to get to Azarenka, likely facing either Lucie Safarova or Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, but a win there could be the downfall of Azarenka this time.


With Azarenka's health a little doubtful, Sam Stosur may be the biggest beneficiary in this section having reached a Final at Roland Garros before. The Australian could have a really tough contest against Nadia Petrova in the Third Round having lost 5 of their 7 meetings against her, but a win there could see her take advantage of this section.


If not Stosur, a dark horse could be Ekaterina Makarova, but her consistency can be a real hindrance and that is why I do feel Stosur could be the key to opening up the top half of the draw.


Prediction: Victoria Azarenka is the favourite, but I have a feeling that Sam Stosur could be the one reaching the Semi Final.


Second Quarter
This is by far the most difficult section of the draw, but it is one from where we could potentially see a surprise come through at a big price.

Agnieska Radwanska and Marion Bartoli are the top seeded players in the draw, but take your pick from Ana Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Angelique Kerber or Flavia Pennetta as choices to be made from this quarter of the draw alone.

All of those players will feel they can get a run going in the Championships if they can get 'hot', but one who may really surprise is Venus Williams.

Granted, Venus Williams has only reached the Final once in her career at Roland Garros and is yet to win this tournament, but she has the added motivation of playing for a place in the Olympics, while she has shown some decent form on the red dirt in recent weeks.

Wins over the likes of Sam Stosur, Jelena Jankovic and Ekaterina Makarova have shown that Venus is in a good place with her game, but it is the potential Second Round clash with Agnieska Radwanska that will either see the end of her tournament or the chance to open up the draw.

Williams has the game to see off Radwanska, particularly if the courts are playing as quick as expected in the early days of the tournament, while her defeat to the Pole in Miami earlier this year was clearly because Williams was struggling with an injury.

I can see a situation where Venus Williams wins that match and, outside of Radwanska, only Angelique Kerber would be a real threat in the quarter. However, Kerber doesn't have an easy path herself and potential Third Round clash with Flavia Pennetta could decide which of those players is playing in the Quarter Final.

Prediction: This is a great section of the draw for those that love to watch great tennis... Picking a Semi Finalist is really tough, but I think there is every chance that Venus Williams will be the surprise package at this stage judging by some of her recent wins.

Third Quarter
This is a quarter dominated by a couple of Grand Slam Champions from last year and includes the defending Champion in the form of Na Li. The Chinese player admitted that her life changed after reaching the Final in the Australian Open and following that with a win here at Roland Garros last year, but there have been signs recently that she could be returning to form at the right time to really give her defence a shot.


The biggest test before the Quarter Finals is likely to come from Mona Barthel, a young German player that can provide a real test for some of the best players on the Tour. Barthel has had some close losses this season against the likes of Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka and I think she can cause problems for Li, although I would expect the greater experience of the defending Champion to tell.


Petra Kvitova, the Wimbledon Champion, has not had the best 2012 season so far and I do struggle to believe she can have a real impact on the slower surfaces after seeing her inconsistent performances in tournaments leading to this one. The Czech player has been given a kind draw in the early rounds of the event, but a potential Fourth Round clash with Jelena Jankovic or Francesca Schiavone will be more difficult than some may imagine.

Jankovic would be the tougher test for Kvitova in my opinion, although Schiavone is a former Champion here and also finished as Runner Up last year so clearly enjoys her time in Paris. However, the conditions here may just favour Kvitova a little more than those opponents and I think there is a potential top Quarter Final in the offing.

Prediction: The quarter seems like it will be decided by the two top seeded players in the section and I am going to favour Na Li to keep her chances of retaining her title.

Fourth Quarter
This is the section of the draw that will have people salivating as the prospect of seeing Serena Williams take on Maria Sharapova in the Quarter Finals looks like being a real chance of deciding the winner of the whole French Open.

Out of the two of those players, I would say there is a 75% chance that Maria Sharapova will reach that stage and a slightly less chance that Serena Williams will with the draw being made as it was.

Sharapova has show what she is all about on the clay courts these days by winning events in Stuttgart and Rome, beating the likes of Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka, Sam Stosur, Angelique Kerber, Ana Ivanovic and Petra Kvitova, who's who of players on the Tour. Her only defeat in that time has come at the hands of Serena Williams.

I really don't see any issues for the Russian before the Quarter Final, the most difficult test being Maria Kirilenko or Anastasia Pavyluchenkova in the Fourth Round, but neither should be a match for her at this moment in time.

The reason I believe Sharapova is more likely to reach the Quarter Final is the tough nature of the draw handed to Serena Williams. The first two rounds don't look like they will pose too many problems, but a Third Round encounter with Julia Goerges is a tough but winnable contest and then it is a potential Fourth Round clash with Caroline Wozniacki.

Wozniacki had to retire from her match in Rome through breathing issues, but she is expected to be feeling better for this tournament having had two weeks to recover. She does have a tough looking Third Round clash with Kaia Kanepi on slate, but she has 3 wins from 4 matches against the Estonian and will feel she can see her off again.

The Williams-Wozniacki match up is very interesting to me as the Dane is one of the few players that has really given Serena problems in the last couple of matches between the pair and also one of the few during Serena's 17 match winning run on clay to actually win a set against the American. Wozniacki also beat Williams in Miami in straight sets and I expect there is a 10-15% chance that she can take out Serena at a tournament where she has struggled throughout her career (compared with the other Majors).

Prediction: Serena is the right favourite to win this tournament, but I think Maria Sharapova may just be the surprise player to get out of this section.

Winner
This looks like a fascinating tournament all around and I have a sneaky feeling that we will see a Williams sister in the Final, but perhaps not the Williams sister that everyone would have predicted.


Venus Williams has shown a lot of heart in recent weeks and she has picked up some big wins on the clay courts. The Paris courts should also suit her if the conditions remain quick as it will allow her to attack the net and also put a little more behind her groundstrokes.


The Second Round clash with Agnieska Radwanska is the key, but 51.00 to win the tournament could look very big if she gets through that and is definitely worth the smallest of interests.


Venus' younger sister, Serena, is the favourite to win the tournament, but I think she could possibly have a bit of trouble getting out of her section. My biggest concern for Maria Sharapova against Serena is the mental side of the game and whether she believes she can beat her considering the Russian has lost 7 straight times to Williams now. However, Serena's potential match with Caroline Wozniacki could see a surprise result and so I will also take a small each-way interest in Maria Sharapova at 9.00.

The last player I will take an interest in is Na Li who is the defending Champion so clearly has to be respected here. Li will be looking to follow Francesca Schiavone who managed to reach the Final last year having won in 2010, and I think there have been real signs that she is finding her belief again.

Li lost a close Final to Maria Sharapova in Rome last time out and she has a respectable draw that I think she can take advantage of. The Chinese Number 1 is currently priced at 15.00 and that looks interesting in the hope that she may be in the Semi Final opposite whichever player comes out of the Fourth Quarter and may be a little better in fitness terms.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 1.73 William Hill (7 Units)
Men's Champion to lose less than 3 sets @ 3.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venus Williams @ 51.00 Bet Victor (0.5 Units E/W)
Maria Sharapova @ 9.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Na Li @ 15.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)

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