Saturday, 24 November 2012
Weekend Football Picks (November 24-25)
These are my picks for the weekend games in the Premier League and the reasons I have made them:
Manchester United v Queens Park Rangers Pick: It has been over 10 years since Manchester United have lost three games in a row and I think we are going to see a reaction from the loss at Norwich City last weekend.
Mark Hughes is gone as manager of Queens Park Rangers and it will be interesting to see what kind of reaction the players have.
However, as well as wanting to recover from the loss last week, I have no doubt that Sir Alex Ferguson will be reminding his team of the lack of effort QPR gave at the end of their match with Manchester City that ultimately cost United the title when it was clear that Rangers were not going to be relegated.
Fergie will not want his side to let up here and I think United can score a few goals in this one and cover the 2 goal handicap with an exact 2 goal win returning the stake.
Aston Villa v Arsenal Pick: I don't know if I can trust Arsenal fully after a couple of wins, but Aston Villa look a side that is struggling with the inexperience in the squad and they look ripe for the taking after a couple of big games against Manchester United and Manchester City in the last couple of weeks.
The side host Reading on Tuesday night and there is every chance that Villa are targeting that game as the one where they can pick up three points so I think Arsenal will be a little too good for them when all is said and done in this game.
Arsenal have won 1-2 on their last two visits to Villa Park and a similar scoreline is definitely in the offing in my opinion so I'll have a small interest that they pick up the three points in a game that has either 3 or 4 goals in total.
Swansea v Liverpool Pick: I don't really have a lot of statistics to back this pick up, but I do like over 2.5 goals between these sides as both have been scoring and conceding goals in equal measure at the moment.
Swansea will know what to expect from Brendan Rodgers and Rodgers will also be able to give his new team some insight into what the Swans will be doing.
Both sides will consider this a winnable game and I just think someone will win after both sides have at least scored one each so taking the over looks the call to me.
Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: Newcastle United have been a disappointment in recent games and I think they have struggled without the likes of Yohan Cabaye and that can only be more of an issue now Hatem Ben Arfa has been ruled out.
Southampton should be full of confidence thanks to their win at Queens Park Rangers last weekend, but they are always liable to concede at least one goal through a mistake and that does put the pressure on them to turn draws into wins.
However, I do like Southampton to win this game after their performance last week and I do think Newcastle have had some tough losses of late and confidence can't be high for this long trip down south.
Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Why are Manchester City the underdog in this game? I know a new manager can bring a change of fortunes so Chelsea will be hoping for that in this one, but the fans are not happy with recent events at the club and that could cause a tense performance from the home side.
To make matters tougher for them, Chelsea have been conceding plenty of goals at the moment and have conceded at least 2 goals to the likes of Manchester United (twice) and Shakhtar Donetsk here at Stamford Bridge.
Confidence also has to be a little shot after a comprehensive loss to Juventus has left Chelsea's Champions League dreams in tatters, and I just think City can take advantage here.
It won't be easy for City who have a bad record at Stamford Bridge in recent seasons, but I just think they have enough firepower to prove they are better than being the underdog in this one and will back them for a small interest to win the game.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (4 Units)
Arsenal Win and either 3 or 4 Goals Scored @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Swansea-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Southampton Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City @ 2.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
November Update: 8-16, - 3.25 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.2% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Friday, 23 November 2012
College Football Week 13 Picks 2012
It has been a tough season, as I say every week, but the last couple of weeks has at least seen a small profit develop, although again teams have left points on the board and cost me.
This is the final week of the regular season for many of the College teams up and down the nation, but these are the picks I'll go with before the start of the Championship Games next weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to all those celebrating.
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Eastern Michigan Eagles Pick: It is a big spread, but I like the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover for the following reasons:
First, the Huskies have won their last 3 at Eastern Michigan while covering the spread and have recorded some huge wins including a 68 point win last time they played here.
Second, the Huskies have a lot of momentum and will want to complete the sweep of the MAC in Conference play ahead of the Championship Game next weekend.
Third, the Eagles are just 5-9 against the spread as the home underdog since Ron English took over as Head Coach.
Marshall Thundering Herd @ East Carolina Pirates Pick: I'll back the home favourite to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, East Carolina have dominated Marshall at home, winning 6 in a row by an average of 20 points per game.
Second, the Pirates are also a decent home favourite going 5-3 against the spread, compared with Marshall who are 5-7 as the road underdog.
Buffalo Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons Pick: I'll back the Bowling Green Falcons for the following reasons to cover the spread:
First, I think the Bowling Green Defense has the definite edge in this contest and they should be able to slow down the Bulls enough to win this game and cover the spread.
Second, the Falcons did lose any hopes of winning the MAC East with a home loss last week, but they will still want to get some momentum ahead of their Bowl game that they should be involved with.
Third, Bowling Green have been very strong as the favourite this season and should be able to overcome Buffalo as long as their minds haven't wandered after the loss last week.
LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: I will back the LSU Tigers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Arkansas have never recovered from the Bobby Petrino scandal before the season began and they have played like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season from day one. That's not good against a LSU team that will be focused on reaching double-digit wins again.
Second, the Tigers should have enough turnovers to pull away from the Razorbacks and I think their Special Teams could also have a big impact in the game.
Third, LSU are usually a solid road favourite, going 6-2 against the spread in that spot over the last 3 seasons.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think this will be a high-scoring game, but I'll be looking for Purdue to win the turnover battle and secure the win by a touchdown at least.
Second, Purdue have been pretty dominant in the recent series and won't be under different pressure having beat Indiana to become Bowl eligible last season.
Third, the Boilermakers are also in revenge mode having lost here the last time they played one another, and had previously beaten Indiana comfortably in 4 straight home games.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I said a few weeks ago that Derek Dooley wouldn't be long for the Tennessee Head Coach role and that was confirmed last week. I still like the Tennessee Volunteers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tennessee have been a big disappointment this season but I do think they are the better team here and should be able to do enough at home to win by pulling away late.
Second, Tennessee are also in a revenge spot having lost in Lexington last season and they had covered in 4 straight games in this series before that.
Third, Kentucky are an awful road underdog, going 2-10 against the spread under Joker Phillips when in that spot.
Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: I'll back the Florida State Seminoles to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida State have blown out the Florida Gators two seasons in a row and I think they will have more focus here as the Gators think about missing their chance of winning the SEC East.
Second, the Seminoles are better on both sides of the ball and should make enough big plays to cover the spread in a winning performance.
Third, Florida are only 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog over the last three seasons.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: I'll take the points in this one with the Wisconsin Badgers for the following reasons:
First, Wisconsin will want to pick up some momentum ahead of the Big Ten Championship Game next week and so they should be fully focused against a rival.
Second, the Badgers have fallen short against the best teams in the Big Ten, but I think they match up well against the Nittany Lions and may just be able to win this outright.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I'll take the Clemson Tigers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the match up seems to favour the Tigers more than South Carolina and I think Tajh Boyd makes the big plays that lead to the victory.
Second, Clemson have been playing the better football of the two teams and will be focused on the game with the ACC Championship Game not in their future this season.
Third, the Tigers have also been exceptional at home in the last two seasons and I think that will also make the difference in this game.
MY PICKS: Northern Illinois Huskies - 20.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 12 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
This is the final week of the regular season for many of the College teams up and down the nation, but these are the picks I'll go with before the start of the Championship Games next weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to all those celebrating.
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Eastern Michigan Eagles Pick: It is a big spread, but I like the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover for the following reasons:
First, the Huskies have won their last 3 at Eastern Michigan while covering the spread and have recorded some huge wins including a 68 point win last time they played here.
Second, the Huskies have a lot of momentum and will want to complete the sweep of the MAC in Conference play ahead of the Championship Game next weekend.
Third, the Eagles are just 5-9 against the spread as the home underdog since Ron English took over as Head Coach.
Marshall Thundering Herd @ East Carolina Pirates Pick: I'll back the home favourite to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, East Carolina have dominated Marshall at home, winning 6 in a row by an average of 20 points per game.
Second, the Pirates are also a decent home favourite going 5-3 against the spread, compared with Marshall who are 5-7 as the road underdog.
Buffalo Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons Pick: I'll back the Bowling Green Falcons for the following reasons to cover the spread:
First, I think the Bowling Green Defense has the definite edge in this contest and they should be able to slow down the Bulls enough to win this game and cover the spread.
Second, the Falcons did lose any hopes of winning the MAC East with a home loss last week, but they will still want to get some momentum ahead of their Bowl game that they should be involved with.
Third, Bowling Green have been very strong as the favourite this season and should be able to overcome Buffalo as long as their minds haven't wandered after the loss last week.
LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: I will back the LSU Tigers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Arkansas have never recovered from the Bobby Petrino scandal before the season began and they have played like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season from day one. That's not good against a LSU team that will be focused on reaching double-digit wins again.
Second, the Tigers should have enough turnovers to pull away from the Razorbacks and I think their Special Teams could also have a big impact in the game.
Third, LSU are usually a solid road favourite, going 6-2 against the spread in that spot over the last 3 seasons.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think this will be a high-scoring game, but I'll be looking for Purdue to win the turnover battle and secure the win by a touchdown at least.
Second, Purdue have been pretty dominant in the recent series and won't be under different pressure having beat Indiana to become Bowl eligible last season.
Third, the Boilermakers are also in revenge mode having lost here the last time they played one another, and had previously beaten Indiana comfortably in 4 straight home games.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I said a few weeks ago that Derek Dooley wouldn't be long for the Tennessee Head Coach role and that was confirmed last week. I still like the Tennessee Volunteers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tennessee have been a big disappointment this season but I do think they are the better team here and should be able to do enough at home to win by pulling away late.
Second, Tennessee are also in a revenge spot having lost in Lexington last season and they had covered in 4 straight games in this series before that.
Third, Kentucky are an awful road underdog, going 2-10 against the spread under Joker Phillips when in that spot.
Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: I'll back the Florida State Seminoles to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida State have blown out the Florida Gators two seasons in a row and I think they will have more focus here as the Gators think about missing their chance of winning the SEC East.
Second, the Seminoles are better on both sides of the ball and should make enough big plays to cover the spread in a winning performance.
Third, Florida are only 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog over the last three seasons.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: I'll take the points in this one with the Wisconsin Badgers for the following reasons:
First, Wisconsin will want to pick up some momentum ahead of the Big Ten Championship Game next week and so they should be fully focused against a rival.
Second, the Badgers have fallen short against the best teams in the Big Ten, but I think they match up well against the Nittany Lions and may just be able to win this outright.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I'll take the Clemson Tigers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the match up seems to favour the Tigers more than South Carolina and I think Tajh Boyd makes the big plays that lead to the victory.
Second, Clemson have been playing the better football of the two teams and will be focused on the game with the ACC Championship Game not in their future this season.
Third, the Tigers have also been exceptional at home in the last two seasons and I think that will also make the difference in this game.
MY PICKS: Northern Illinois Huskies - 20.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 12 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Thursday, 22 November 2012
NFL Week 12 Picks 2012
Wow, I can't believe how quickly the week has come through. I will be fleshing out this thread in the next couple of days, but for now, these are my Thanksgiving Day Picks.
EDIT: Will have to wait to have a more fleshed out thread as just been too hungover/busy/going to see United since Thursday so it'll only be the picks for the games again this week.
Have a great Thanksgiving if you're celebrating it.
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Pick: I like the Houston Texans in this game for the following reasons:
First, Detroit are off back to back emotional Divisional losses and they could easily be a little down in this one.
Second, the Lions have notoriously struggled on Thanksgiving Day, losing their last 8 against the spread.
Third, I think the Detroit Offense has just been too banged up and I believe the Texans Defense will play much better than they did against Jacksonville on Sunday.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Picks: I'll back the Washington Redskins to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, Dallas are so up and down as a team and have struggled as the home favourite, going 3-14 against the spread in that situation.
Second, they have been even worse as a home favourite against NFC East teams, going 4-15 in that spot over the last few seasons. Washington are also 12-3 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional contests.
Third, I think RG3 has a huge game coming back to Texas and I think the Dallas Secondary has just slipped a little bit of late so I expect he can make enough big plays with the spread over a field goal in difference.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: I'll back New England to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think they will be play up and hard with the loss of Rob Gronkowski and the Jets Defense has really struggled at the moment.
Second, Mark Sanchez had a decent outing against the St Louis Rams but I don't trust him to have back to back strong games and that could be the difference.
Third, the Patriots are 14-6 against the spread as the road favourite against AFC East teams over the last few seasons.
Four, I think Aqib Talib does make the Patriots a better Defense and he should help in shutting down this Jets Offense that makes too many mistakes with dropped balls and bad decisions from the Quarter Back.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Steelers in this contest to grab an important win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers have dominated this recent series, winning 21 of 23, and they will also be focused despite this game being the meat in a Baltimore sandwich.
Second, I expect the Pittsburgh Defense to step up again this week (remember they only allowed Baltimore to 6 Offensive points) and I think they will be able to create one big turnover that wins the game for them.
Third, very few rookie Quarter Backs get the better of Dick LeBeau who is 17-1 straight up against them.
Fourth, Cleveland are just 2-9 against the spread over the last 3 seasons when set as an underdog of less than 3 points.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I like the road favourite to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, road favourites have a very high percentage of covering games when they are off a bye.
Second, the Jaguars lost a heartbreaker to the Houston Texans last week and while this is a Divisional game, they could still be flat with nothing really going except playing out the string this season.
Third, the Titans have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Jacksonville and the Jaguars have really played badly at home all season.
Fourth, Jacksonville are 3-10 against the spread as the home underdog this season and have already lost to both Divisional rivals here while failing to cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Another road team I will be backing is the Denver Broncos and I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Denver have Peyton Manning... Kansas City start Brady Quinn.
Second, the Broncos have also won 2 of their last 3 visits to Arrowhead and will not take the game lightly as it is a Divisional game and Denver can still force their way into one of the top two seeds in the AFC with the way the schedule has gone down.
Third, the Chiefs just don't protect the ball and a couple of turnovers should allow Manning and this Offense to pull away and earn the cover.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I'll take the momentum and pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think the Buccaneers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and they will have been given a real boost by their come from behind win over Carolina last week. That momentum and the home field advantage could be huge.
Second, this is an important game for the Falcons as it is a Divisional game, but I am still not convinced that they are not looking ahead to their Thursday night tussle with the New Orleans Saints.
Third, the Buccaneers knocked off the Falcons here last season to snap a 2 game home losing run in the series and that should bolster their confidence.
St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I'll back the road underdog to pull the upset, but I'll take the small number of points to be on the safe side. I like St Louis for the following reasons:
First, Arizona have been on a long losing run and they are starting a rookie Quarter Back behind an Offensive Line that blows. Rian Lindley struggled last week and I expect Chris Long and Robert Quinn make it tough for him this week.
Second, St Louis haven't been playing well at all in recent weeks, but they have shown some signs of being able to move the chains and I expect Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson to do enough to score enough points to win the game.
Third, the Cardinals shouldn't be favoured over any team right now and they are 1-6-2 against the spread as a home favourite over the last three seasons.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers Pick: I'll take the San Diego Chargers in this spot for the following reasons:
First, this game doesn't mean as much to Baltimore as it does to San Diego as the Ravens are much more likely to be looking ahead to the second clash with Pittsburgh in 3 weeks, a game they can win and basically wrap up the AFC North.
Second, Baltimore are 2-10 against the spread when playing on the West Coast, which includes a 20 point loss here last season.
Third, after beating the Steelers twice last season, Baltimore failed to win or cover the spread in their next game. In fact, over the last five seasons, the Ravens are just 3-6 against the spread in their game immediately following one with the Steelers in the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: I'm backing the New Orleans Saints to win this game for the following reasons:
First, New Orleans have been playing a lot more like their old selves in the last few weeks to bring them back in contention in the NFC and I think they are ready to show off what they can do and earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss at Candlestick Park last year.
Second, the Saints should not really be considered a home underdog with Drew Brees as they are 5-0 against the spread in that spot.
Third, I just believe the Saints are playing with a lot of momentum and confidence right now and I just think the revenge angle helps their cause in this one to win the game outright, although expect some swings and turns.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I don' think the Green Bay Packers should be an underdog, let alone one by 3 points so I am picking them to cover for the following reasons:
First, actually that above is a pretty good reason- should the Packers really be giving anyone a field goal start with the way they have been playing? Personally, I don't think so.
Second, Eli Manning was not himself in the weeks prior to the bye and he is going to have to have recharged his batteries to keep up with the Packers in what could be a shoot-out.
Third, the Giants are 7-18-1 against the spread as the home favourite... Green Bay are 17-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog including that shelling of Houston earlier this season.
Fourth, this looks a shoot out and I favour Rodgers over Manning in that sense.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
St Louis + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (3 Units)
EDIT: Will have to wait to have a more fleshed out thread as just been too hungover/busy/going to see United since Thursday so it'll only be the picks for the games again this week.
Have a great Thanksgiving if you're celebrating it.
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Pick: I like the Houston Texans in this game for the following reasons:
First, Detroit are off back to back emotional Divisional losses and they could easily be a little down in this one.
Second, the Lions have notoriously struggled on Thanksgiving Day, losing their last 8 against the spread.
Third, I think the Detroit Offense has just been too banged up and I believe the Texans Defense will play much better than they did against Jacksonville on Sunday.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Picks: I'll back the Washington Redskins to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, Dallas are so up and down as a team and have struggled as the home favourite, going 3-14 against the spread in that situation.
Second, they have been even worse as a home favourite against NFC East teams, going 4-15 in that spot over the last few seasons. Washington are also 12-3 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional contests.
Third, I think RG3 has a huge game coming back to Texas and I think the Dallas Secondary has just slipped a little bit of late so I expect he can make enough big plays with the spread over a field goal in difference.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: I'll back New England to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think they will be play up and hard with the loss of Rob Gronkowski and the Jets Defense has really struggled at the moment.
Second, Mark Sanchez had a decent outing against the St Louis Rams but I don't trust him to have back to back strong games and that could be the difference.
Third, the Patriots are 14-6 against the spread as the road favourite against AFC East teams over the last few seasons.
Four, I think Aqib Talib does make the Patriots a better Defense and he should help in shutting down this Jets Offense that makes too many mistakes with dropped balls and bad decisions from the Quarter Back.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Steelers in this contest to grab an important win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers have dominated this recent series, winning 21 of 23, and they will also be focused despite this game being the meat in a Baltimore sandwich.
Second, I expect the Pittsburgh Defense to step up again this week (remember they only allowed Baltimore to 6 Offensive points) and I think they will be able to create one big turnover that wins the game for them.
Third, very few rookie Quarter Backs get the better of Dick LeBeau who is 17-1 straight up against them.
Fourth, Cleveland are just 2-9 against the spread over the last 3 seasons when set as an underdog of less than 3 points.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I like the road favourite to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, road favourites have a very high percentage of covering games when they are off a bye.
Second, the Jaguars lost a heartbreaker to the Houston Texans last week and while this is a Divisional game, they could still be flat with nothing really going except playing out the string this season.
Third, the Titans have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Jacksonville and the Jaguars have really played badly at home all season.
Fourth, Jacksonville are 3-10 against the spread as the home underdog this season and have already lost to both Divisional rivals here while failing to cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Another road team I will be backing is the Denver Broncos and I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Denver have Peyton Manning... Kansas City start Brady Quinn.
Second, the Broncos have also won 2 of their last 3 visits to Arrowhead and will not take the game lightly as it is a Divisional game and Denver can still force their way into one of the top two seeds in the AFC with the way the schedule has gone down.
Third, the Chiefs just don't protect the ball and a couple of turnovers should allow Manning and this Offense to pull away and earn the cover.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I'll take the momentum and pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think the Buccaneers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and they will have been given a real boost by their come from behind win over Carolina last week. That momentum and the home field advantage could be huge.
Second, this is an important game for the Falcons as it is a Divisional game, but I am still not convinced that they are not looking ahead to their Thursday night tussle with the New Orleans Saints.
Third, the Buccaneers knocked off the Falcons here last season to snap a 2 game home losing run in the series and that should bolster their confidence.
St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I'll back the road underdog to pull the upset, but I'll take the small number of points to be on the safe side. I like St Louis for the following reasons:
First, Arizona have been on a long losing run and they are starting a rookie Quarter Back behind an Offensive Line that blows. Rian Lindley struggled last week and I expect Chris Long and Robert Quinn make it tough for him this week.
Second, St Louis haven't been playing well at all in recent weeks, but they have shown some signs of being able to move the chains and I expect Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson to do enough to score enough points to win the game.
Third, the Cardinals shouldn't be favoured over any team right now and they are 1-6-2 against the spread as a home favourite over the last three seasons.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers Pick: I'll take the San Diego Chargers in this spot for the following reasons:
First, this game doesn't mean as much to Baltimore as it does to San Diego as the Ravens are much more likely to be looking ahead to the second clash with Pittsburgh in 3 weeks, a game they can win and basically wrap up the AFC North.
Second, Baltimore are 2-10 against the spread when playing on the West Coast, which includes a 20 point loss here last season.
Third, after beating the Steelers twice last season, Baltimore failed to win or cover the spread in their next game. In fact, over the last five seasons, the Ravens are just 3-6 against the spread in their game immediately following one with the Steelers in the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: I'm backing the New Orleans Saints to win this game for the following reasons:
First, New Orleans have been playing a lot more like their old selves in the last few weeks to bring them back in contention in the NFC and I think they are ready to show off what they can do and earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss at Candlestick Park last year.
Second, the Saints should not really be considered a home underdog with Drew Brees as they are 5-0 against the spread in that spot.
Third, I just believe the Saints are playing with a lot of momentum and confidence right now and I just think the revenge angle helps their cause in this one to win the game outright, although expect some swings and turns.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I don' think the Green Bay Packers should be an underdog, let alone one by 3 points so I am picking them to cover for the following reasons:
First, actually that above is a pretty good reason- should the Packers really be giving anyone a field goal start with the way they have been playing? Personally, I don't think so.
Second, Eli Manning was not himself in the weeks prior to the bye and he is going to have to have recharged his batteries to keep up with the Packers in what could be a shoot-out.
Third, the Giants are 7-18-1 against the spread as the home favourite... Green Bay are 17-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog including that shelling of Houston earlier this season.
Fourth, this looks a shoot out and I favour Rodgers over Manning in that sense.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
St Louis + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Tuesday, 20 November 2012
Midweek Football Picks (November 20-22)
It's back to the Champions League and European football this week as we get set to enter a busy two months in England with a heavy run of fixtures around the festive period.
Remember to keep an eye on team news ahead of these games as some teams have qualified and others are already out of the competitions so resting players in not against the norm at this stage.
Galatasaray v Manchester United Pick: I find it horrible to back against my team and usually steer clear of doing so... Unless it is a Capital One Cup game or a meaningless Champions League game like we have on Tuesday evening.
Sir Alex Ferguson has taken a youthful looking squad to Turkey and that is not the easiest place to get some experience as Galatasaray have been very tough to play out there in front of their passionate fans.
After seeing the amount of chances Galatasaray created against a stronger United team at Old Trafford, I have little doubt they will be able to do the same in this one, but I also think the home side have shown some vulnerabilities in the Champions League this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet.
The layers know United have a weaker squad out here, and they have also priced down the home win simply because Galatasaray 'need' to win... However, I would rather have a small interest in Galatasaray winning with a few goals scored in the game as I doubt they keep a clean sheet.
BATE Borisov v Lille Pick: Talking about skeleton squads, Lille have taken a very young squad to Belarus to face a BATE Borisov side that has played well in the Champions League and already thumped the French side on their travels and beaten Bayern Munich here.
BATE should be on the front foot for much of this game and the inexperience in the away side may make all the difference.
I expect Lille to make an effort to get off the pointless track, but BATE should be too strong when it is all said and done.
Juventus v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea have really hit the wall in recent weeks and I think they are going to have another tough day in the office and could be faced with the prospect of being knocked out of the Champions League at the Group Stage.
Juventus should be on the front foot in this game and they look capable of exposing a Chelsea back line that is missing John Terry and one that has struggled for clean sheets. The Blues have conceded at least 2 goals against the likes of Manchester United (twice), Shakhtar Donetsk (twice) and West Brom in recent games and you have to favour Juventus to grab the win here.
However, Chelsea should be able to get on the scoreboard themselves in this game as they have players that will certainly help create chances. My issue is that they are too open at the back and could be picked off by a Juventus team that could have beaten them at Stamford Bridge and clearly can create chances against this defence.
We should see goals in this game so a small interest in Juventus winning a high-scoring game looks the call.
Valencia v Bayern Munich Pick: Two teams in very good form meet each other in a game that could determine the winner of this Group and a chance to avoid some of the bigger names in the last 16.
Valencia have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions, while Bayern Munich have only lost 1 of their last 9 away games. The German side will be very happy avoiding defeat in this one as that would mean a win over BATE at home would win them them the Group.
A draw actually would suit Bayern down to the ground in this one and I think Valencia would be happy too as that would secure their place in the last 16.
Arsenal v Montpellier Pick: Arsenal look remarkably short considering their recent struggles in both the Premier League and the Champions League, but Montpellier have been a little exposed in the competition as they are inexperienced and struggling to reach the heights of last season when they won the French domestic League.
I think Arsenal probably win, but the best way to get on seems to be Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to win which is offered at 3.00 by Ladbrokes.
The home side have earned just 1 clean sheet in their last 14 games in all competitions and look vulnerable, something that Montpellier could expose as a team that has scored in every away game they have played this season, including at Schalke and Olympiacos in this competition.
Arsenal have also had 3 clean sheets in their last 10 Champions League home games and this looks a spot of value considering they have won 8 of those games.
Manchester City v Real Madrid Pick: This looks like a game that may continue from where they left off in Madrid as both teams will be pushing forward to win the game.
Manchester City have to win and hope Ajax beat Borussia Dortmund to give themselves a small chance of progressing from the Group, while Real Madrid come here with less pressure as they can afford to lose as long as they beat Ajax at home in their final Group game. However, Jose Mourinho will still harbour ambitions of finishing top of the section and he has to see his side earn 2 more points than Dortmund if they are to do so and that means they cannot sit back and wait for things to happen either.
Both defences have shown vulnerabilities in the competition, while both attacks are definitely clever enough and have enough pace and creativity to cause problems.
The over 2.5 goals has been priced down accordingly, but I still think taking the odds against quote for over 3.5 goals may be the way to go.
MY PICKS: BATE Borisov @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Galatasaray Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Juventus Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Valencia-Bayern Munich Draw @ 3.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
November Update: 6-12, - 3.75 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.4% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Remember to keep an eye on team news ahead of these games as some teams have qualified and others are already out of the competitions so resting players in not against the norm at this stage.
Galatasaray v Manchester United Pick: I find it horrible to back against my team and usually steer clear of doing so... Unless it is a Capital One Cup game or a meaningless Champions League game like we have on Tuesday evening.
Sir Alex Ferguson has taken a youthful looking squad to Turkey and that is not the easiest place to get some experience as Galatasaray have been very tough to play out there in front of their passionate fans.
After seeing the amount of chances Galatasaray created against a stronger United team at Old Trafford, I have little doubt they will be able to do the same in this one, but I also think the home side have shown some vulnerabilities in the Champions League this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet.
The layers know United have a weaker squad out here, and they have also priced down the home win simply because Galatasaray 'need' to win... However, I would rather have a small interest in Galatasaray winning with a few goals scored in the game as I doubt they keep a clean sheet.
BATE Borisov v Lille Pick: Talking about skeleton squads, Lille have taken a very young squad to Belarus to face a BATE Borisov side that has played well in the Champions League and already thumped the French side on their travels and beaten Bayern Munich here.
BATE should be on the front foot for much of this game and the inexperience in the away side may make all the difference.
I expect Lille to make an effort to get off the pointless track, but BATE should be too strong when it is all said and done.
Juventus v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea have really hit the wall in recent weeks and I think they are going to have another tough day in the office and could be faced with the prospect of being knocked out of the Champions League at the Group Stage.
Juventus should be on the front foot in this game and they look capable of exposing a Chelsea back line that is missing John Terry and one that has struggled for clean sheets. The Blues have conceded at least 2 goals against the likes of Manchester United (twice), Shakhtar Donetsk (twice) and West Brom in recent games and you have to favour Juventus to grab the win here.
However, Chelsea should be able to get on the scoreboard themselves in this game as they have players that will certainly help create chances. My issue is that they are too open at the back and could be picked off by a Juventus team that could have beaten them at Stamford Bridge and clearly can create chances against this defence.
We should see goals in this game so a small interest in Juventus winning a high-scoring game looks the call.
Valencia v Bayern Munich Pick: Two teams in very good form meet each other in a game that could determine the winner of this Group and a chance to avoid some of the bigger names in the last 16.
Valencia have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions, while Bayern Munich have only lost 1 of their last 9 away games. The German side will be very happy avoiding defeat in this one as that would mean a win over BATE at home would win them them the Group.
A draw actually would suit Bayern down to the ground in this one and I think Valencia would be happy too as that would secure their place in the last 16.
Arsenal v Montpellier Pick: Arsenal look remarkably short considering their recent struggles in both the Premier League and the Champions League, but Montpellier have been a little exposed in the competition as they are inexperienced and struggling to reach the heights of last season when they won the French domestic League.
I think Arsenal probably win, but the best way to get on seems to be Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to win which is offered at 3.00 by Ladbrokes.
The home side have earned just 1 clean sheet in their last 14 games in all competitions and look vulnerable, something that Montpellier could expose as a team that has scored in every away game they have played this season, including at Schalke and Olympiacos in this competition.
Arsenal have also had 3 clean sheets in their last 10 Champions League home games and this looks a spot of value considering they have won 8 of those games.
Manchester City v Real Madrid Pick: This looks like a game that may continue from where they left off in Madrid as both teams will be pushing forward to win the game.
Manchester City have to win and hope Ajax beat Borussia Dortmund to give themselves a small chance of progressing from the Group, while Real Madrid come here with less pressure as they can afford to lose as long as they beat Ajax at home in their final Group game. However, Jose Mourinho will still harbour ambitions of finishing top of the section and he has to see his side earn 2 more points than Dortmund if they are to do so and that means they cannot sit back and wait for things to happen either.
Both defences have shown vulnerabilities in the competition, while both attacks are definitely clever enough and have enough pace and creativity to cause problems.
The over 2.5 goals has been priced down accordingly, but I still think taking the odds against quote for over 3.5 goals may be the way to go.
MY PICKS: BATE Borisov @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Galatasaray Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Juventus Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Valencia-Bayern Munich Draw @ 3.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
November Update: 6-12, - 3.75 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.4% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Sunday, 18 November 2012
NFL Week 11 Picks 2012
It's the short Thanksgiving week coming up so I'll have a full thread for that day where I'll look back at how my pre-season predictions have been doing and it will be a much fuller thread than this one.
It has been a long week at work for me so I'll only be posting my picks and reasons for them this week:
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: I'll back the Green Bay Packers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both teams have some major injuries on both sides of the ball, but at least the Packers are coming off a bye and can have planned for this game without the likes of Clay Matthews, Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson.
Second, the Packers are 6-0 against the spread when coming off a bye under Mike McCarthy.
Third, Green Bay picked up some serious momentum before their bye, while the Lions loss in Minnesota last weekend could be the body blow to their Play Off chances and they may be emotionally down because of that defeat.
Fourth, road favourites coming off a bye generally do cover the spread.
Fifth, Green Bay have dominated this series, going 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games and they are also 3-1 in their last 4 visits to Detroit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This is essentially a 'pick 'em' contest and I am backing the road team for the following reasons:
First, the Buccaneers are one of the hotter teams in the NFL, while Carolina have struggled for most of the season and so Tampa Bay should be able to make that momentum count.
Second, I believe the Buccaneers have more play-makers on both sides of the ball and a turnover here or a big play there could make all the difference in what should be a high-scoring game.
Third, the Buccaneers do have Atlanta on deck and I have seen that being an argument for them perhaps being unfocused on this game- personally, I think Tampa Bay know that game will be almost meaningless if they lose this one as they are already 3 games behind in the Division. To earn a Wild Card, they can't pick and choose games on which to focus.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I'll be backing yet another road team to win and cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, Kansas City put in a big effort on Monday Night Football before coming up just short in pulling the upset over Pittsburgh and they may have emptied the tank for that game and could be flat in this one.
Second, the fans are planning on showing their discontent in this game and that could make it tougher for an Offense that has given the ball away far too much this season.
Third, the Bengals are 4-2 in the last 6 games of this series and they will know they could potentially have a big impact in the AFC North if they win this game with Pittsburgh and Baltimore meeting one another twice in three weeks and both suffering with major injuries.
Fourth, Cincinnati are 4-1-1 against the spread as the road favourite since the beginning of last season.
New York Jets @ St Louis Rams Pick: I am taking the New York Jets to keep this close enough to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Jets have been blown out twice, but teams generally respond well to that dynamic in their next game, although I am a little concerned with the way they seem to be imploding from within for a second season in succession with players blaming Tim Tebow under anonymous names.
Second, a stat I picked up from another site was that teams coming off a tie are just 2-6 against the spread in their next game if they are playing a non-Divisional game.
Third, the Jets may be focusing on the Thanksgiving Day game where they host the New England Patriots, but that game will be meaningless if they lose this one. However, the spot the Rams find themselves in is even worse as they have two Divisional games after this one while coming off a Divisional game.
Fourth, the Rams are 8-17 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons.
New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders Pick: I am backing the New Orleans Saints to continue their late run and also cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both teams are going to move the chains all day long in my opinion, but the difference will be that New Orleans will convert more drives into touchdowns than Oakland will and I also think Carson Palmer is more likely to throw turnovers than Drew Brees.
Second, momentum is a huge factor and I think the Saints have a lot more momentum than the Raiders who have allowed at least 42 points in each of their last 2 games.
Third, the Saints are 14-5 against the spread when playing non-Conference opponents, the Raiders are 8-17-1 against the spread in the same spot.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: I haven't picked too many home teams, but I like the Denver Broncos in this one for the following reasons:
First, the San Diego Chargers just make far too many mistakes and that has hurt them all season, while the pressure on Norv Turner is beginning to take its toll.
Second, as I said before, momentum is a huge factor and the Broncos have won 4 in a row while they have scored at least 30 points in each game. Peyton Manning is on fire and the Chargers were torched by Josh Freeman last week.
Third, the Broncos will be fully focused in putting the Chargers away in the Division and a win today would do just that.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: It does look a big spread, but I am going to back the New England Patriots to cover for the following reasons:
First, Tom Brady is one of the 'bitter' players in the NFL who seems to raise his game when he is playing against someone who is getting all the attention at the Quarter Back position. Brady made a point of crushing Tim Tebow twice last season and I think he is focused on doing the same here and putting Andrew Luck 'in his place'.
Second, the Patriots should be a little better on the Defensive side of the ball now that Aqib Talib is back from suspension and can make his debut for them here. Talib is a good Defensive Back and I expect he will make New England a little tougher.
Third, Indianapolis are playing really well, but they were blown out in Chicago and by the New York Jets and Luck is definitely not as good on the road as he is in his dome.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I will take the home side to keep this close despite missing Ben Roethlisberger and I like the for the following reasons:
First, I imagine the Steelers Defense is going to step up their play knowing the Offense will need a lot of help without their Quarter Back leader.
Second, the Ravens Defense has given up some big plays on the ground and they should be given a healthy does of runs which may open things up for Byron Leftwich to make deep plays to Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.
Third, 6 of the last 10 games between these teams have been decided by 3 points so getting more than a field goal on the points looks generous to me.
Fourth, over the last 10 seasons, Pittsburgh have only been the home underdog on 4 occasions and they have covered the spread in every one of those games.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I am going to take the Over 36.5 Points in this game as I think that looks too short considering both Defenses are capable of scoring points themselves or creating turnovers that lead to short fields.
I think the layers may be under-estimating Chicago's chances of moving the chains with Jason Campbell on last weeks performance against Houston, but there were a couple of factors in play. First, the weather was ridiculous and even the Texans had a hard time finding consistency, particularly in the passing game, and second, Campbell will have had a week learning with the first team Offense this week and should be more clued in.
Alex Smith should be starting for the 49ers despite leaving the game against St Louis with a concussion last week, and I think he'll have some success too. A 20-17 result either way would not be a surprise to me so the over total points looks the call for a small interest.
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1 Point @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Tote Sport (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Tote Sport (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers-Chicago Bears Over 36.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
It has been a long week at work for me so I'll only be posting my picks and reasons for them this week:
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: I'll back the Green Bay Packers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both teams have some major injuries on both sides of the ball, but at least the Packers are coming off a bye and can have planned for this game without the likes of Clay Matthews, Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson.
Second, the Packers are 6-0 against the spread when coming off a bye under Mike McCarthy.
Third, Green Bay picked up some serious momentum before their bye, while the Lions loss in Minnesota last weekend could be the body blow to their Play Off chances and they may be emotionally down because of that defeat.
Fourth, road favourites coming off a bye generally do cover the spread.
Fifth, Green Bay have dominated this series, going 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games and they are also 3-1 in their last 4 visits to Detroit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This is essentially a 'pick 'em' contest and I am backing the road team for the following reasons:
First, the Buccaneers are one of the hotter teams in the NFL, while Carolina have struggled for most of the season and so Tampa Bay should be able to make that momentum count.
Second, I believe the Buccaneers have more play-makers on both sides of the ball and a turnover here or a big play there could make all the difference in what should be a high-scoring game.
Third, the Buccaneers do have Atlanta on deck and I have seen that being an argument for them perhaps being unfocused on this game- personally, I think Tampa Bay know that game will be almost meaningless if they lose this one as they are already 3 games behind in the Division. To earn a Wild Card, they can't pick and choose games on which to focus.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I'll be backing yet another road team to win and cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, Kansas City put in a big effort on Monday Night Football before coming up just short in pulling the upset over Pittsburgh and they may have emptied the tank for that game and could be flat in this one.
Second, the fans are planning on showing their discontent in this game and that could make it tougher for an Offense that has given the ball away far too much this season.
Third, the Bengals are 4-2 in the last 6 games of this series and they will know they could potentially have a big impact in the AFC North if they win this game with Pittsburgh and Baltimore meeting one another twice in three weeks and both suffering with major injuries.
Fourth, Cincinnati are 4-1-1 against the spread as the road favourite since the beginning of last season.
New York Jets @ St Louis Rams Pick: I am taking the New York Jets to keep this close enough to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Jets have been blown out twice, but teams generally respond well to that dynamic in their next game, although I am a little concerned with the way they seem to be imploding from within for a second season in succession with players blaming Tim Tebow under anonymous names.
Second, a stat I picked up from another site was that teams coming off a tie are just 2-6 against the spread in their next game if they are playing a non-Divisional game.
Third, the Jets may be focusing on the Thanksgiving Day game where they host the New England Patriots, but that game will be meaningless if they lose this one. However, the spot the Rams find themselves in is even worse as they have two Divisional games after this one while coming off a Divisional game.
Fourth, the Rams are 8-17 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons.
New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders Pick: I am backing the New Orleans Saints to continue their late run and also cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both teams are going to move the chains all day long in my opinion, but the difference will be that New Orleans will convert more drives into touchdowns than Oakland will and I also think Carson Palmer is more likely to throw turnovers than Drew Brees.
Second, momentum is a huge factor and I think the Saints have a lot more momentum than the Raiders who have allowed at least 42 points in each of their last 2 games.
Third, the Saints are 14-5 against the spread when playing non-Conference opponents, the Raiders are 8-17-1 against the spread in the same spot.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: I haven't picked too many home teams, but I like the Denver Broncos in this one for the following reasons:
First, the San Diego Chargers just make far too many mistakes and that has hurt them all season, while the pressure on Norv Turner is beginning to take its toll.
Second, as I said before, momentum is a huge factor and the Broncos have won 4 in a row while they have scored at least 30 points in each game. Peyton Manning is on fire and the Chargers were torched by Josh Freeman last week.
Third, the Broncos will be fully focused in putting the Chargers away in the Division and a win today would do just that.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: It does look a big spread, but I am going to back the New England Patriots to cover for the following reasons:
First, Tom Brady is one of the 'bitter' players in the NFL who seems to raise his game when he is playing against someone who is getting all the attention at the Quarter Back position. Brady made a point of crushing Tim Tebow twice last season and I think he is focused on doing the same here and putting Andrew Luck 'in his place'.
Second, the Patriots should be a little better on the Defensive side of the ball now that Aqib Talib is back from suspension and can make his debut for them here. Talib is a good Defensive Back and I expect he will make New England a little tougher.
Third, Indianapolis are playing really well, but they were blown out in Chicago and by the New York Jets and Luck is definitely not as good on the road as he is in his dome.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I will take the home side to keep this close despite missing Ben Roethlisberger and I like the for the following reasons:
First, I imagine the Steelers Defense is going to step up their play knowing the Offense will need a lot of help without their Quarter Back leader.
Second, the Ravens Defense has given up some big plays on the ground and they should be given a healthy does of runs which may open things up for Byron Leftwich to make deep plays to Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.
Third, 6 of the last 10 games between these teams have been decided by 3 points so getting more than a field goal on the points looks generous to me.
Fourth, over the last 10 seasons, Pittsburgh have only been the home underdog on 4 occasions and they have covered the spread in every one of those games.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I am going to take the Over 36.5 Points in this game as I think that looks too short considering both Defenses are capable of scoring points themselves or creating turnovers that lead to short fields.
I think the layers may be under-estimating Chicago's chances of moving the chains with Jason Campbell on last weeks performance against Houston, but there were a couple of factors in play. First, the weather was ridiculous and even the Texans had a hard time finding consistency, particularly in the passing game, and second, Campbell will have had a week learning with the first team Offense this week and should be more clued in.
Alex Smith should be starting for the 49ers despite leaving the game against St Louis with a concussion last week, and I think he'll have some success too. A 20-17 result either way would not be a surprise to me so the over total points looks the call for a small interest.
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1 Point @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Tote Sport (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Tote Sport (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers-Chicago Bears Over 36.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Saturday, 17 November 2012
College Football Week 12 Picks 2012
It's been a remarkably poor season for my NCAA College Football Picks and it really has been a big disappointment for me.
Last season was very successful, so it is balancing it out into a small profit over the last two years, but I expect much more from the picks.
Some of it has been bad luck... Some of it has been terrible picking, but it all adds up to the same thing and I'll be hoping for some sort of comeback over the last couple of months left this season.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: I am taking the road underdog to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, these teams have both been very good against the spread this season, but I just think Rutgers can make more big plays on the Defensive side of the ball and that could keep them close throughout.
Second, Rutgers are 4-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last 18 months.
Third, the underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games in this series.
Memphis Tigers @ UAB Blazers Pick: I'll be backing the UAB Blazers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, UAB have just picked up a bit of momentum with back to back wins and I like their chances to make it three in a row despite Memphis snapping a 4 game losing run last time out.
Second, I have more faith in the Blazers Offense and like their match up more than I like the Memphis Tigers doing the same.
Third, UAB have won 3 in a row in the series and they are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 in the series.
East Michigan Eagles @ West Michigan Broncos Pick: Neither of these teams have been playing well of late, but I'll take the West Michigan Broncos to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Broncos were beaten last season so they will be in a revenge spot and West Michigan had on the previous 3 games in the series by at least 15 points per game.
Second, the Broncos Offense matches up better against the Eagles Defense than when the other two units are on the field in my opinion.
Third, West Michigan are 7-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season. East Michigan are 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog this season.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: I am going to back the home team to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Nebraska should be fully focused with the Big Ten Legends Division still within their grasp and they are the better team.
Second, the Cornhuskers bashed Minnesota on the road last season and they have been incredibly strong at home this season, going 4-1-1 against the spread as the home team this season.
Third, Minnesota were comfortably beaten when facing the best of the Big Ten teams this season, losing by at least 22 points to both Michigan and Wisconsin and I think Nebraska can reach the same margin in this one.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Second, Oklahoma State are 8-3 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season.
Third, Texas Tech just seemed to be off the pace since their beating from Kansas State and Tommy Tuberville is suspended so they'll be missing their Head Coach for this one.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ South Alabama Jaguars Pick: I'll be backing the Middle Tennessee State team to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Middle Tennessee have certainly enjoyed the team bonding when going on the road this season as they are 4-1 straight up and against the spread in those games so far and should be motivated with the Sun Belt Championship still within their grasp.
Second, South Alabama are a school that has faced this level of opposition for the first time and they may just be feeling the tiredness after a long season.
Third, South Alabama have lost all 5 home games against the spread so far this season.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Illionois Fighting Illini Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to cover the spread against a poor Illinois team for the following reasons:
First, Illinois have been blown out in 7 straight games and have looked like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season and they are also 0-7 against the spread in those games.
Second, Purdue can at least point to a 3-1 record against the spread in their 4 road games this season.
Third, the Boilermakers are 6-1 in the last 7 games of this series.
Oklahoma Sooners @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I'll back the Sooners to win this high-scoring game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, West Virginia have just struggled in the last few games as they get used to playing the higher level competition in the Big 12 than they were used to in the Big East. They have lost their last 4 games and they are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games.
Second, the Sooners will be in a big revenge spot as they were beaten in the Fiesta Bowl by West Virginia in 2008 and this is still an important game for Oklahoma as they look to finish in 2nd in the Big 12.
Third, West Virginia are just 3-8 against the spread in their home games since the beginning of last season.
Arizona Wildcats @ Utah Utes Pick: I am taking the Utah Utes to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Utah have won the last 3 games in the series, including a 13 point win on the road last season.
Second, the Utes have a 4-1 record at home this season and Arizona have lost every game on the road so far in 2012.
Third, the Utes have the better Defense and that could make all the difference in what figures to be a close game.
California Golden Bears @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: I'll take the home team to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Beavers have won their last 2 home games against California and they have covered the spread in each of those wins.
Second, the Golden Bears have just hit the wall as far as this season has gone with 4 straight defeats and 4 losses against the spread and only one of those losses has come by less than 18 points.
Third, I think the match ups favour Oregon State on both the Defensive and Offensive sides of the ball and I just think they can break Golden Bears hearts and run away with this game when it is all said and done.
MY PICKS: Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UAB Blazers - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Michigan Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 20 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders - 7 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Utah Utes @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oregon State Bears - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 11: 5-4, + 0.71 Units
Week 10: 1-3, - 2 Units
Week 9: 1-2, - 1.08 Units
Week 8: 3-3, - 0.21 Units
Week 7: 2-4-1, - 2.03 Units
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 33-45-1, - 13.02 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Last season was very successful, so it is balancing it out into a small profit over the last two years, but I expect much more from the picks.
Some of it has been bad luck... Some of it has been terrible picking, but it all adds up to the same thing and I'll be hoping for some sort of comeback over the last couple of months left this season.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: I am taking the road underdog to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, these teams have both been very good against the spread this season, but I just think Rutgers can make more big plays on the Defensive side of the ball and that could keep them close throughout.
Second, Rutgers are 4-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last 18 months.
Third, the underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games in this series.
Memphis Tigers @ UAB Blazers Pick: I'll be backing the UAB Blazers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, UAB have just picked up a bit of momentum with back to back wins and I like their chances to make it three in a row despite Memphis snapping a 4 game losing run last time out.
Second, I have more faith in the Blazers Offense and like their match up more than I like the Memphis Tigers doing the same.
Third, UAB have won 3 in a row in the series and they are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 in the series.
East Michigan Eagles @ West Michigan Broncos Pick: Neither of these teams have been playing well of late, but I'll take the West Michigan Broncos to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Broncos were beaten last season so they will be in a revenge spot and West Michigan had on the previous 3 games in the series by at least 15 points per game.
Second, the Broncos Offense matches up better against the Eagles Defense than when the other two units are on the field in my opinion.
Third, West Michigan are 7-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season. East Michigan are 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog this season.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: I am going to back the home team to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Nebraska should be fully focused with the Big Ten Legends Division still within their grasp and they are the better team.
Second, the Cornhuskers bashed Minnesota on the road last season and they have been incredibly strong at home this season, going 4-1-1 against the spread as the home team this season.
Third, Minnesota were comfortably beaten when facing the best of the Big Ten teams this season, losing by at least 22 points to both Michigan and Wisconsin and I think Nebraska can reach the same margin in this one.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Second, Oklahoma State are 8-3 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season.
Third, Texas Tech just seemed to be off the pace since their beating from Kansas State and Tommy Tuberville is suspended so they'll be missing their Head Coach for this one.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ South Alabama Jaguars Pick: I'll be backing the Middle Tennessee State team to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Middle Tennessee have certainly enjoyed the team bonding when going on the road this season as they are 4-1 straight up and against the spread in those games so far and should be motivated with the Sun Belt Championship still within their grasp.
Second, South Alabama are a school that has faced this level of opposition for the first time and they may just be feeling the tiredness after a long season.
Third, South Alabama have lost all 5 home games against the spread so far this season.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Illionois Fighting Illini Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to cover the spread against a poor Illinois team for the following reasons:
First, Illinois have been blown out in 7 straight games and have looked like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season and they are also 0-7 against the spread in those games.
Second, Purdue can at least point to a 3-1 record against the spread in their 4 road games this season.
Third, the Boilermakers are 6-1 in the last 7 games of this series.
Oklahoma Sooners @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I'll back the Sooners to win this high-scoring game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, West Virginia have just struggled in the last few games as they get used to playing the higher level competition in the Big 12 than they were used to in the Big East. They have lost their last 4 games and they are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games.
Second, the Sooners will be in a big revenge spot as they were beaten in the Fiesta Bowl by West Virginia in 2008 and this is still an important game for Oklahoma as they look to finish in 2nd in the Big 12.
Third, West Virginia are just 3-8 against the spread in their home games since the beginning of last season.
Arizona Wildcats @ Utah Utes Pick: I am taking the Utah Utes to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Utah have won the last 3 games in the series, including a 13 point win on the road last season.
Second, the Utes have a 4-1 record at home this season and Arizona have lost every game on the road so far in 2012.
Third, the Utes have the better Defense and that could make all the difference in what figures to be a close game.
California Golden Bears @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: I'll take the home team to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Beavers have won their last 2 home games against California and they have covered the spread in each of those wins.
Second, the Golden Bears have just hit the wall as far as this season has gone with 4 straight defeats and 4 losses against the spread and only one of those losses has come by less than 18 points.
Third, I think the match ups favour Oregon State on both the Defensive and Offensive sides of the ball and I just think they can break Golden Bears hearts and run away with this game when it is all said and done.
MY PICKS: Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UAB Blazers - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Michigan Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 20 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders - 7 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Utah Utes @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oregon State Bears - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 11: 5-4, + 0.71 Units
Week 10: 1-3, - 2 Units
Week 9: 1-2, - 1.08 Units
Week 8: 3-3, - 0.21 Units
Week 7: 2-4-1, - 2.03 Units
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 33-45-1, - 13.02 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks (November 17-19)
November has sucked for my football picks, but it isn't the end of the world with a couple of weeks left this month and it has been a very successful season which covers the small backward steps I have taken.
Below are my picks from the weekend Premier League games:
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The North London derby has produced some high-scoring games in recent seasons and the way that both of these sides have defended in recent weeks suggests this should be another one for viewers to enjoy on Saturday lunchtime.
While Tottenham haven't won too many games recently, their away form in the Premier League has to be respected and they had been scoring freely before being held to just the one goal in their loss at Manchester City last weekend.
However, I think Spurs can take advantage of the vulnerabilities in the Arsenal backline that has seen them concede at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 games, while teams like Manchester United and Schalke could have scored far more than they managed in their games against the Gunners.
Spurs have scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 visits to the Emirates Stadium and they had scored at least 2 goals in Premier League visits to the Majedski Stadium, Old Trafford and St Mary's so are capable of doing the same here if Andre Villas-Boas can hold back his defensive tendencies that have taken over at times.
Manchester City v Aston Villa Pick: Even at 2-0 down last weekend, I still thought United could come back and beat Aston Villa at Villa Park and that should tell you what you need to know about what I think of this young side that has a lot of pressure on their shoulders.
I appreciate Villa have won at the Etihad Stadium this season in the Capital One Cup, but I think the Manchester City win over Spurs last weekend will have given them some momentum to carry into this game.
If City hadn't been virtually knocked out of the Champions League, the game against Real Madrid next Wednesday would be seen as a real distraction, but I think their position means that game has significantly less pressure on them now. I expect they can ride the momentum from last week and win this one with some room to spare.
Newcastle United v Swansea Pick: Newcastle United lost 0-1 at home to West Ham United last week and their inconsistencies this season were shown up again as a lackluster display saw them fail to get anything from the game.
Swansea are another team that has struggled on their travels and they were fortunate to get a draw against Southampton last weekend when being outplayed for large periods and that is why I think they will lose here.
The injury list for the home side is a major concern, but they have three forwards that should pose Swansea plenty of problems and I'll back them for a second week in a row and hope they can bounce back in a positive manner.
West Brom v Chelsea Pick: Manchester City may not have a 'massive' Champions League game to look forward to, but Chelsea certainly do as a defeat in Turin against Juventus would mean the Italians and Shakhtar Donetsk would be in a very powerful position in the Group and Chelsea could be knocked out at the first hurdle when trying to defend their Champions League title.
That's not the only factor that will make this a difficult game, but the fact that a number of players will be returning from international duty means preparation for the game is not at the best level it could be.
Add to the fact that West Brom have been very, very good at the The Hawthornes this season and everything is pointing to Chelsea being far too short and the home side should be able to get a result in the game.
Only Manchester City have won at this ground in the League, but even that was with the final kick of the game and West Brom could easily have won that game too, while the Baggies beat Chelsea last season to remove the mental baggage that comes with 5 straight defeats to Chelsea prior to that win.
I am surprised that you can pick up West Brom to avoid defeat at a little under odds against and that looks to be the call.
Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: Last weekend, I mentioned the fact that United just seem incapable of keeping clean sheets at the moment, but they have the attacking firepower to deal with most of the Premier League teams (although I remain convinced that this will be highlighted by teams in the Champions League once the Group Stage is completed).
That could be the case again this weekend as they face a Norwich City side that have been playing much better in recent weeks and have beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur here.
Grant Holt should cause as many problems as Christian Bentenke did at times last week and it just seems United are making a few mistakes in defensive areas to expect a clean sheet this week.
It took a late Ryan Giggs goal to win the game for United last season here, but hopefully that won't be the case this time and it will be a little easier for the away side- however, I can't imagine them keeping a clean sheet, so it is likely another nervy, but entertaining game, is in the offing.
West Ham United v Stoke City Pick: Both of these teams have likely circled this as a game that they can pick up points from, but I just think the home side will be a little more motivated to grab them in front of their own supporters, especially considering they follow this one with a run of games against Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Stoke have been one of these sides that struggle away from home because of a lack of goals, but they did perform well at Old Trafford in a recent away game and are clearly capable.
Both of these sides have a similar philosophy when it comes to style, but I think the game being played at Upton Park makes the difference. West Ham have won 3 of their last 4 home games against Stoke City in the League and they look worth a small interest at odds against.
MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Brom + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
November Update: 3-9, - 5.60 Units (17 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Below are my picks from the weekend Premier League games:
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The North London derby has produced some high-scoring games in recent seasons and the way that both of these sides have defended in recent weeks suggests this should be another one for viewers to enjoy on Saturday lunchtime.
While Tottenham haven't won too many games recently, their away form in the Premier League has to be respected and they had been scoring freely before being held to just the one goal in their loss at Manchester City last weekend.
However, I think Spurs can take advantage of the vulnerabilities in the Arsenal backline that has seen them concede at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 games, while teams like Manchester United and Schalke could have scored far more than they managed in their games against the Gunners.
Spurs have scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 visits to the Emirates Stadium and they had scored at least 2 goals in Premier League visits to the Majedski Stadium, Old Trafford and St Mary's so are capable of doing the same here if Andre Villas-Boas can hold back his defensive tendencies that have taken over at times.
Manchester City v Aston Villa Pick: Even at 2-0 down last weekend, I still thought United could come back and beat Aston Villa at Villa Park and that should tell you what you need to know about what I think of this young side that has a lot of pressure on their shoulders.
I appreciate Villa have won at the Etihad Stadium this season in the Capital One Cup, but I think the Manchester City win over Spurs last weekend will have given them some momentum to carry into this game.
If City hadn't been virtually knocked out of the Champions League, the game against Real Madrid next Wednesday would be seen as a real distraction, but I think their position means that game has significantly less pressure on them now. I expect they can ride the momentum from last week and win this one with some room to spare.
Newcastle United v Swansea Pick: Newcastle United lost 0-1 at home to West Ham United last week and their inconsistencies this season were shown up again as a lackluster display saw them fail to get anything from the game.
Swansea are another team that has struggled on their travels and they were fortunate to get a draw against Southampton last weekend when being outplayed for large periods and that is why I think they will lose here.
The injury list for the home side is a major concern, but they have three forwards that should pose Swansea plenty of problems and I'll back them for a second week in a row and hope they can bounce back in a positive manner.
West Brom v Chelsea Pick: Manchester City may not have a 'massive' Champions League game to look forward to, but Chelsea certainly do as a defeat in Turin against Juventus would mean the Italians and Shakhtar Donetsk would be in a very powerful position in the Group and Chelsea could be knocked out at the first hurdle when trying to defend their Champions League title.
That's not the only factor that will make this a difficult game, but the fact that a number of players will be returning from international duty means preparation for the game is not at the best level it could be.
Add to the fact that West Brom have been very, very good at the The Hawthornes this season and everything is pointing to Chelsea being far too short and the home side should be able to get a result in the game.
Only Manchester City have won at this ground in the League, but even that was with the final kick of the game and West Brom could easily have won that game too, while the Baggies beat Chelsea last season to remove the mental baggage that comes with 5 straight defeats to Chelsea prior to that win.
I am surprised that you can pick up West Brom to avoid defeat at a little under odds against and that looks to be the call.
Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: Last weekend, I mentioned the fact that United just seem incapable of keeping clean sheets at the moment, but they have the attacking firepower to deal with most of the Premier League teams (although I remain convinced that this will be highlighted by teams in the Champions League once the Group Stage is completed).
That could be the case again this weekend as they face a Norwich City side that have been playing much better in recent weeks and have beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur here.
Grant Holt should cause as many problems as Christian Bentenke did at times last week and it just seems United are making a few mistakes in defensive areas to expect a clean sheet this week.
It took a late Ryan Giggs goal to win the game for United last season here, but hopefully that won't be the case this time and it will be a little easier for the away side- however, I can't imagine them keeping a clean sheet, so it is likely another nervy, but entertaining game, is in the offing.
West Ham United v Stoke City Pick: Both of these teams have likely circled this as a game that they can pick up points from, but I just think the home side will be a little more motivated to grab them in front of their own supporters, especially considering they follow this one with a run of games against Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Stoke have been one of these sides that struggle away from home because of a lack of goals, but they did perform well at Old Trafford in a recent away game and are clearly capable.
Both of these sides have a similar philosophy when it comes to style, but I think the game being played at Upton Park makes the difference. West Ham have won 3 of their last 4 home games against Stoke City in the League and they look worth a small interest at odds against.
MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Brom + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
November Update: 3-9, - 5.60 Units (17 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
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