NFL Week 12 Picks 2023 (November 23-27)

Week 10 was a very poor one for the NFL Picks, but the bounce back in Week 11 is important and keeps things ticking along this season.

As we approach Thanksgiving Day in the United States, attention will have turned to the NFL PlayOffs and there were more big injuries in Week 11 that has changed the outlook for teams.

One of those is the Cincinnati Bengals- many believed the Bengals could win the Super Bowl, but it has been a tough season with Joe Burrow struggling with injury early on. And just when the momentum looked to be finally building behind the Bengals, Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury last Thursday, which has left the Cincinnati Bengals looking well short in the AFC.

It doesn't help that they are the only team in the AFC North that doesn't hold a winning record and Jake Browning is extremely inexperienced at Quarter Back as he takes over from Burrow. It feels like a long shot for the Bengals to even make the PlayOffs right now, especially with six of the remaining seven teams on the schedule all holding a winning record.

Another year is also over for the New York Jets for all intents and purposes after a blowout loss at the Buffalo Bills.

Last week the decision to hold onto Zach Wilson as the starting Quarter Back, despite the Jets making it clear they did not feel he was ready in the off-season, was criticised. And it feels like the Jets have had enough too with Wilson pulled out in the Third Quarter of the blowout loss in Buffalo and now being relegated to third string Quarter Back as the Jets begin to think about getting Aaron Rodgers healthy and trying to go again in 2024.

The Seattle Seahawks will be concerned about Geno Smith at Quarter Back and will know that their season is likely resting on the outcome of any scans he has this week. Drew Lock looks way below the standards needed and the Seahawks face the San Francisco 49ers twice in the next three weeks when their chances of winning the NFC West will be decided.

If Smith is ruled out, the Seahawks may struggle to even make the Wild Card places, but otherwise they should be able to win enough games to earn one of those places.

Three more wins is expected to be enough to make the PlayOffs in the NFC, but Seattle may struggle to even do that if Lock is asked to spend considerable time at Quarter Back.

This will change on a week to week basis, but a very early look at how the PlayOffs could stand did bring up some surprises.

Looking ahead, I can see the NFC South being won by a team with a losing record, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may just sneak out the Division and host a Wild Card Game in January.

The Dallas Cowboys could be the team heading into that game with all of the pressure on the road team who should be able to secure as many as 12 wins, although still finishing behind the Philadelphia Eagles.

There is still a chance that the Detroit Lions could finish with the joint-best record in the NFC along with the aforementioned Eagles with a much more comfortable looking schedule of the two teams. Winning the Number 1 Seed could actually be determined by a big Week 17 game when the Lions visit the Cowboys, but we have seen how quickly an outlook can change for a team depending on injuries.

I have said for a while that the top teams, injury withstanding, in the NFC look pretty easy to pick out. The NFC South is competitive, but you could pick out at least five of the seven teams to make the post-season with some confidence.

My early look had a few more surprises in the AFC side of the PlayOffs- the Buffalo Bills miss out if the season plays out as predicted, while the Miami Dolphins do go on and win the AFC East.

Three of the AFC North teams find a way into the post-season, including the Cleveland Browns without Deshaun Watson, while the Houston Texans win the AFC South. CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level and the Texans have yet to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could be a Division decider, although I also expect the Jaguars to make the post-season.

Guessing the post-season picture ahead of Week 12 is always going to be hazardous, but there does feel like some surprises and upsets could be seen between now and the end of Week 18 and that is what makes it exciting for fans.

After another week of action, the top five in my standings are as follows:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): wins over two of the top AFC teams and the Dallas Cowboys and with a big game coming up against the Buffalo Bills keeps the Eagles at top spot.

2) Detroit Lions (8-2): they did not produce their best in Week 11, but the Lions won and look healthy.

3) San Francisco 49ers (7-3): a strong couple of wins have gotten San Francisco back on track and their main rivals in the NFC West might have lost their starting Quarter Back.

4) Baltimore Ravens (8-3): it is hard to know where the Ravens are considering they ended up crushing a Cincinnati team that played the second half without Joe Burrow, but Baltimore deserve credit for bouncing back in a big win.

5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3): there is no doubt that it feels harsh dropping Kansas City several places after a loss to the Eagles, but they looked out of sync Offensively. The Chiefs will need to find their identity on this side of the ball if they are going to repeat as Champions, while finishing with the Number 1 Seed has to be the goal to try and make life that much easier.

There are some quality teams that are just outside of these places, but they will need to get through some tough challenges to enter the top five places.

The Dolphins need to beat a 'good' team, while the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans also have something to prove.

Dallas look strong, but again need to prove themselves in a big game, while the likes of Cleveland and Seattle could be down starting Quarter Backs and that does/will hold them back.

The NFL Week 12 schedule is split over four days with games to be played on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Picks will be placed in this thread over the next couple of days with the momentum from Week 11 something we can look to build upon.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has been seven years since the Detroit Lions (8-2) last won a game on Thanksgiving Day, but they continue to open up the day of NFL Football.

In previous years, some have questioned whether the Lions deserve to hold onto a Thanksgiving Day Game, but that is not going to be the case in 2023 with the team only trailing the Philadelphia Eagles for the most wins in the NFC. They do have a healthy lead at the top of the NFC North, but the Lions will want to maintain some of their current momentum knowing that four of the next six games are going to be played on the road.

The Lions needed some late magic to overcome the Chicago Bears in Week 11 and there is a feeling that Detroit were perhaps looking past the team in the basement of their Division. Head Coach Dan Campbell and many of the players will know this game on Thursday gives them a big opportunity to impress a national audience and the Lions might have already been mentally checked in for this important outing.

It shows plenty of character that the Lions were still able to fight back and win that game in Week 11 and they are a similar priced favourite when Detroit host the Green Bay Packers (4-6) who have kept their slim hopes of earning a PlayOff spot alive after a win of their own on Sunday.

That came at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, and now Green Bay have to show they can take the show on the road having lost four in a row outside of Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love had a decent game against the Chargers, but this is expected to be much more challenging for the Quarter Back who threw 2 Interceptions in a home loss to the Detroit Lions earlier this season. The pressure may be on Love's shoulders with Aaron Jones picking up another injury on Sunday that is likely going to keep the Running Back from taking part.

The Quarter Back did have 246 passing yards and 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Touchdown run to his name in the home defeat to the Lions, but Jordan Love will know he needs to be much better if he is going to help his team pick up the upset.

He would be more comfortable with Aaron Jones behind him in the backfield, but either way it will be a big challenge for the Packers Offensive Line to establish the run. While the game is competitive, the feeling is that Green Bay will continue to pound the rock and look to shorten the game, while also keeping their Quarter Back in manageable down and distance.

However, it is not going to be an easy day for Jordan Love if he has to rely on his arm- while he has been playing a little better of late, Love will be under plenty of duress from the Detroit pass rush, while the Lions Secondary has been playing the pass effectively and may be able to tempt Jordan Love into a mistake or two, much as they did in the road win.

The game plan on the other side of the ball should be pretty simple for the Detroit Lions who have gotten a significant punch from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. It was Montgomery who pounded the Packers into oblivion earlier this season and he had a solid return game against the Chicago Bears in Week 11, while Gibbs has the ability to break out a big play every time he touches the ball.

With the Packers Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, Detroit should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and they can keep the Offensive unit in very strong field position. Jared Goff had 210 passing yards in the road win over the Packers and he may not be asked to do much in this one aside from making sure the team is lined up and able to set up those big run plays.

Jared Goff is facing a Green Bay Secondary that has not given up a lot of passing yards in recent games, but that is also down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball very well against them. It also should be noted the level of Quarter Back and overall Offensive units they have played in their last few games and Detroit are going to be significantly more challenging than the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.

The Lions have a lot more balance than those teams and that is going to create fits for the Green Bay Packers as Detroit chase a first win on Thanksgiving since 2016.

They failed to cover as a home favourite on Sunday, but we had the Chicago Bears with the points that day and the feeling is that the Lions will be a lot more focused from the off against the Green Bay Packers.

Jordan Love may have an opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the expectation is that the Lions can clamp down on the run and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to make the mistakes that gives the home team extra possessions. With the Offensive unit particularly effective at home, the Lions should be able to put up enough points to clear this spread and move right alongside the Philadelphia Eagles with nine wins, the joint-most in the NFL this season.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The rumours are gathering pace that this could be the last game that Ron Rivera is the Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-7). Losing twice to the New York Giants is simply not going to make management change their mind, while Rivera has to know the writing is on the wall after the Commanders traded away two key pass rushers and knowing that the Head Coach was not selected by the current ownership team.

If it wasn't for the short week with the Commanders set to play on Thanksgiving Day, the feeling is that Ron Rivera might have been fired this week. Instead, he is given one last chance to be given an opportunity to at least play out the season, while a loss for Washington may mean Ron Rivera has plenty of time to spend with his family on Thanksgiving weekend and beyond.

They are huge underdogs when visiting the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) who are still chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Playing a Divisional rival does make things tougher for any team, but the Cowboys have been crushing 'weak' opposition all season- they have beaten the Giants (twice), Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Rams and Panthers this season and only one of those wins has been by less than a 20 point margin.

As written above, Dallas have been crushing weak opponents and this is another for them on Thanksgiving.

Playing on this day has not usually resulted in big wins for the Cowboys, and they have lost plenty of Thanksgiving Day games in recent years, but this Washington Commanders team looks tailor made for a Dallas team that has played four home games this season and won by margins of 20, 35, 23 and 32 points.

They are being asked to cover a big spread, but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys Offensive unit should be able to score a lot of points in this one after seeing Tommy DeVito carve up the Commanders Secondary in Week 11 (that is Tommy DeVito the New York Giants Quarter Back, although Tommy DeVito, the infamous Goodfellas film character would have likely done the same).

Montez Sweat and Chase Young are gone so it is expected that Dak Prescott will have a relatively clean pocket to make his plays down the field, while the Cowboys are also likely going to be able to rip off some big gains on the ground. It should be a relatively 'easy' day in the office for Prescott operating from third and manageable whenever Dallas have the ball, while the play-action should see him have opportunities to make some big throws down the field and the Cowboys have every chance of getting close to the 40 point mark they are averaging at home.

The Dallas Defensive unit will certainly believe they can contribute and they have played much better at home than on the road.

In Week 11, the Cowboys gave Bryce Young all he could handle and they are likely going to put immense pressure on second year Quarter Back Sam Howell in this one.

Sam Howell is not helped playing behind a revolving door of an Offensive Line and continues to be hit hard whenever he takes a snap and looks to pass the ball. The key for the Commanders will be to try and keep this game competitive and continue to feed Bijan Robinson has much as they can, either running the ball directly or as a pass-catching Running Back coming out of the backfield.

Getting the ball into Robinson's hands as quickly as possible might see the Commanders stay in front of the chains, but any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Cowboys pass rush is going to be wreaking havoc in the backfield. Sam Howell may not have the worst passing numbers and there are some quality Receivers who can step up for him, but it is tough to continue to make plays with defenders hanging onto you, while the Cowboys Secondary are also playing at a pretty good level right now.

The pass rush has certainly made it easier for the Secondary and the Cowboys may be able to force a couple of turnovers that helps them pull away and cover what is a very big line for any NFL game, let alone a Divisional game.

Dallas are 14-6 against the spread as a home favourite under Mike McCarthy, while you have to question how much the Commanders team have left to give a Head Coach that is a lame duck to say the least.

However, you have to respect the fact that the Commanders could easily secure a backdoor cover in this game with the spread as big as it is. They are also 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog this season and have a couple of 3 point losses at Philadelphia and Seattle.

Divisional games usually are plenty motivating on their own, regardless of a season situation, but the Cowboys might be able to come out and make a big statement against a team that is perhaps lacking some direction. If the Commanders do feel that their Head Coach could be out of the door on Friday, they might check out of this one and the Dallas Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays that helps the home team secure a big victory.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Three losses in a row would worry some teams, but others will go out and make a big trade to bring a player like Chase Young. This comes twelve months after the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) traded for Christian McCaffrey and the team are firmly back on track after winning back to back games.

Over the next three weeks, the 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) twice and the NFC West Division race will look much clearer by the end of those.

Bringing in Chase Young is clearly going to have a positive impact on the 49ers team, but the reality is that their three game losing run was largely down to injuries that the team had been dealing with. They went into a Bye, got healthier, and San Francisco have looked like a team that could win the Super Bowl once again.

There would also have been very little panic in the San Francisco locker room considering the team have reached the Super Bowl in 2019 and the NFC Championship Game in 2021 and 2022. That will be the minimum aim for Kyle Shanahan and his team again, while the 49ers may feel they deserve to have much better health going into January after their NFC Championship Game defeat in January 2023.

The 49ers look healthier than the Seattle Seahawks who could be without Geno Smith at Quarter Back and Kenneth Walker III at Running Back in a short week. Pete Carroll is still talking up the chances of Smith playing this game, but it feels like a long shot when you think of the injury he picked up on Sunday, one that meant he missed much of the second half before returning for one last drive as Smith tried to guide the Seahawks to an important win.

A missed Field Goal meant it was not worth the effort and Geno Smith is going to banged up at the very least.

Playing this pass rush is far from ideal for the Quarter Back and even if Smith starts, it has to be considered short odds that he will not be able to finish.

Drew Lock playing against this Defensive unit could be a bloodbath.

The Seahawks may look to run the ball and see if that can ease the expected pressure all around Geno Smith, but the Offensive Line have not been opening big holes of late and the 49ers may not respect the Quarter Back's ability to throw the ball at his usual level. That could see them load the line of scrimmage and force Seattle to try and keep the chains moving through the air.

Again, if Geno Smith was healthy, he might have a chance, but either Smith at less than 100% or Drew Lock throwing feels like a recipe for disaster.

If this game was played earlier in the season, some may have felt that the Seahawks Defensive unit could at least keep them in the contest, but that has looked less likely in recent games. There was always a feeling that the Seahawks were playing at an unsustainable level and San Francisco have the players that can expose the holes at all levels.

Christian McCaffrey and the Offensive Line should have a big day and they should be able to move the ball very efficiently on the ground. In the last three games, the Seattle Defensive Line have allowed teams to move the ball at 5.5 yards per carry so being able to clamp down on McCaffrey looks to be wishful thinking, while the Running Back is also expected to be a threat coming out of the backfield and making some plays in the passing game too.

Things are also looking up for Brock Purdy, even if there is still some feeling that he is a product of the Kyle Shanahan system. The Quarter Back won't care what people think and Purdy had a very good outing in Week 11 and the expectation is that he can pick up from where he left off.

Recent games has seen the Seattle pass rush lose some of its effectiveness and it will be tough to get to a Quarter Back who is likely going to be operating in front of the chains and who is willing to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.

Brock Purdy should also be able to exploit play-action to hit the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle down the field and the expectation is that the 49ers can score enough points to clear this spread.

It would have been perfect if the line had dipped below a key number 7, but that looks unlikely now even if Geno Smith is cleared to suit up.

Any other decision and it is expected to perhaps rival the line the Cowboys are being asked to cover earlier in the day and so it might be worth locking in.

Seattle did have a decent record against San Francisco with five wins in six games played between November 2019 and December 2021, but the 49ers have won three in a row since then. All of those wins have been by at least eight point margins and there is every chance that San Francisco can extend that run in the late Thanksgiving Day game

You do have to respect the fact that the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but Geno Smith's health is a massive concern for this one and the 49ers can pull away.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: When Amazon decided to offer the NFL.a huge amount of money so they could have the chance to broadcast a 'Black Friday' game, they had to be pretty happy with the game that was offered to them.

Both the broadcaster and NFL schedule makers would have anticipated this to be a leading AFC East Divisional clash, but instead of Aaron Rodgers, they will have Tim Boyle leading the New York Jets (4-6).

And instead of being a clash between two of the leading AFC East teams, Amazon will be featuring a Jets team that is barely clinging on to relevancy this season after losing three games in a row. Things had to change and the Zach Wilson era in New York looks to be officially over with the former First Round Draft Pick now the Number 3 Quarter Back on the depth chart behind Boyle and a recently signed Trevor Siemian.

Jets fans will be critical of the management for allowing this tough Defensive unit to be wasted by horrible play from the Quarter Back and the decision to not bring in another veteran after Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury looks to have backfired badly. Perhaps Tim Boyle is the answer, but his history in the NFL suggests not and he is going to have a tough day against the Miami Dolphins (7-3).

It was not the best performance from the Dolphins out of their Bye Week, but they did beat the Las Vegas Raiders and errors might have been down to the fact they were focusing on this Friday game. The Offensive unit made the mistakes, but Jalen Ramsey and the Defensive players more than did their part to beat the Raiders and are expected to shut down whatever kind of Offense the Jets try running with Boyle at Quarter Back.

The expectation will be that Tim Boyle has to lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook and try to establish the run, but that will not be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. Instead, much like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle may need to get the ball quickly into the hands of Hall out in space and hope the Running Back can pick up some big yards after the catch and make that some form of running game for the team.

Asking Tim Boyle to throw against this healthier Miami Secondary seems too much, especially with the Jets Offensive Line banged up. It should give the Dolphins a chance to pin back their ears and really get after Boyle whenever the Jets are in obvious passing situations and any mistake from the Quarter Back is likely going to be punished in more New York turnovers.

Neutrals tuning in should get plenty more consistency out of the Miami Offensive unit, although it will be a test for Tua Tagovailoa considering this is where the strength of the Jets lies. Some may see the 32 points next to Buffalo's name and think the Defensive unit are not up to much, but it is asking too much for any Defense to be out on the field over and over and trying to protect short fields.

The Dolphins might be able to have some joy pushing the ball on the ground, but Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game needs to be cleaner than it was in Week 11. They are still putting up good numbers and the Offensive Line is giving their Quarter Back some time, but Tua will know that this New York Secondary is not one to take too many risks against as he looks to bring Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill into the action.

Play-action and moving pieces on the Offensive side of the ball can make life tough for a Defensive unit to slow down, and Miami are expected to have enough success on this side of the ball to be in a position to cover this spread.

Ultimately, the feeling is that Tim Boyle will make similar mistakes to Zach Wilson and end up putting the Jets Defensive unit in a bind.

It becomes a vicious circle with Boyle then likely to be asked to make more throws to try and keep the Jets in the game, which will lead to more mistakes and the Miami Dolphins can win and cover as long as they are not as generous with their own errors as they were in the victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

A backdoor cover could be in play, but another big Defensive stand from the Dolphins can see them get over the line with a big road win against this Divisional rival.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The loss to the Cleveland Browns and a backup Quarter Back meant big changes this past week. Matt Canada has long been criticised as Offensive Co-Ordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and was fired after the 13-10 loss to the Browns, as Mike Tomlin looks to find an answer to what has been a season-long problem.

Despite being Offensively challenged, the Steelers may still feel they are strong enough to earn a spot in the AFC Wild Card, although chasing down the Baltimore Ravens cannot be ruled out.

Back to back road games is not ideal for any team in the NFL and it is even tougher when you have to face Divisional rivals in both. That is the test for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), a team who have had a bit of extra time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the season.

They were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens in that game, but worse for the Bengals is the loss of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Not many have great expectations for Cincinnati with Jake Browning's inexperience taking over for Burrow, a Quarter Back who has won a National Championship at College level and played in the Super Bowl in the pros.

Unsurprisingly there are plenty of confident statements being made about Browning's preparation for his first start in the NFL, but this is a good Steelers Defensive unit in front of the young Quarter Back. The Bengals are also going to be without Tee Higgins this week, while Ja'Marr Chase is not at full health and that makes it difficult to believe in the Bengals.

Joe Mixon is going to be important for the Bengals, but running the ball against the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be more difficult than usual if they do not respect the ability of Jake Browning behind Center. A few throws may open things up on the ground, but even at full health, the Bengals may not have been able to grind the ball on the ground.

This all means it will be up to Browning to show that he is capable of leading the team in place of Joe Burrow. Any doubt in his play is going to mean Jake Browning is dealing with the Pittsburgh pass rush behind shaky Bengals Offensive Line play, while the injury-hit Steelers Secondary can make enough plays to stall drives.

A big question will be on the other side of the ball and trying to work out if the firing of Matt Canada will spark the Steelers.

The game plan should be pretty easy for the Steelers- with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, they will look to establish the run against the Bengals Defensive Line which has allowed recent opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. These two players have been combining for some big yards on the ground in recent games, although the Steelers fans are hoping to see better from Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.

Kenny Pickett should be well protected, while the expected ground gains should mean play-action can be employed early as the Steelers look to attack this Cincinnati Secondary. George Pickens may not be available, but the Pittsburgh Steelers may choose to try and expose some of the Defensive holes that Cincinnati have displayed, while Pickett can also try and get the ball to Warren in space and hope the Running Back can make some big yards after the catch.

There should be a balance to the Steelers Offensive play compared to what we have seen in recent weeks as the players look to show that it was Matt Canada's calls, rather than their own execution of those plays, that have held them back.

Pittsburgh won here last year, in Overtime, and they do have a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Week 11 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Defensive unit may make one or two plays against the inexperienced Quarter Back that helps set up the Steelers with strong opportunities to score points in short field situations.

Backing the Steelers as a road favourite does not feel that good, but the uncertainty around the Cincinnati Bengals does make Pittsburgh the play.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: A third loss in the 2023 season is not going to derail the plans of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), but Head Coach Andy Reid and his Staff will know they have things to work on. They won the Super Bowl last season thanks to a very strong Offensive unit, but Patrick Mahomes has not been getting the same level of support from those around him and that proved costly in the home defeat on Monday Night Football to the Philadelphia Eagles.

This not the time for panic with a number of miscues that the Chiefs made easy to turn around, but they will want to put things right pretty quickly. They have been very strong Defensively and it is that side of the ball that will feel largely responsible for the eight wins produced, so it won't take a lot to really get the Kansas City Chiefs motoring again.

They are on a short week having played on Monday and with this Divisional game set for Sunday, while the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) have looked better under interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce since firing Josh McDaniels. Both home games played under Pierce have resulted in wins, while Aidan O'Connell was picked off in the End Zone in the 7 point loss to the Miami Dolphins last week.

However, Antonio Pierce will know his team will need to be a lot stronger than they were in that loss to Miami- the scoreboard might not show it, but the Dolphins dominated that day and it was only a number of turnovers that prevented Miami from winning by a margin much more in line with the expectations of the oddsmakers.

This Divisional game poses a significant challenge for the Raiders Offensively and they do not match up that well with the Kansas City Chiefs. You have to imagine they are going to try and feed Josh Jacobs as much as possible and the Running Back may pick up some yards on the ground, but Las Vegas cannot afford to fall a couple of scores behind and then need their inexperienced Quarter Back to try and make plays against this tough Chiefs Secondary.

A fierce pass rush makes Kansas City very tough to throw against and Aidan O'Connell may have a banged up Davante Adams in the line up too. It will mean needing to get others going, but it should be pointed out that the Raiders have scored just 29 points in their last couple of games against Defenses playing to a similar level to where the Kansas City Chiefs are.

Las Vegas will be going into their Bye Week after this game so can leave it all on the field, but the feeling is that they are going to need another big turnover day to keep this one competitive.

The Dolphins made mistakes and there is a cleaning up process taking place at Kansas City, but the Chiefs will believe they have the capabilities of moving the ball up and down the field. They do need a Receiver or two to step up alongside Travis Kelce and give Patrick Mahomes a consistent player to throw to, but that should be 'easier' to manage with Isiah Pacheco likely going to pick up from where he left off against the Eagles.

Andy Reid is not someone who loves to run the ball over and over, but Pacheco should be able to pick up some big gains on the ground and keep the Kansas City Chiefs in front of the chains. That should be key in helping Patrick Mahomes earn a little more time behind the Offensive Line, especially with the Quarter Back comfortable being able to move around and allow Receiving routes to develop down the field.

He has not been at his best of late, but Mahomes has had his numbers dip because of the inconsistent play of his Receivers. That does raise some doubts about the Chiefs covering a spread like this one, but the feeling is that the defeat on Monday Night Football focuses minds and a much better game is played all around, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

Losing has not been a familiar feeling for the Chiefs in recent years and over the last two seasons they are 4-1 against the spread when playing after a defeat. They are also 2-1 against the spread against AFC West rivals and the question mark about how many points the Raiders can put on the scoreboard certainly gives the road team enough of an edge to be backed in this one.

Hopefully the Receivers have removed the teflon from the gloves this week as they will need much stronger hands to ensure the backdoor cover is not possible for the home team.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The AFC looks a loaded and deep Conference in 2023 and earning a Wild Card spot is going to be a challenge. The feeling is that ten wins will likely be needed to do that and that means the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) are beginning to feel the pressure after consecutive losses.

They earn a primetime spot in Week 12 of the 2023 season and Head Coach Brandon Staley is going to be hoping for a big reaction from his players after showing his frustration to the gathered reporters following the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

It feels like it gets much tougher for the Chargers in Week 12 as they prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens (8-3) who will be hoping this game offers them a chance to extend their lead in the AFC North before entering their Bye Week.

A big win over the Cinncinati Bengals on Thursday Night Football does mean the Ravens have had a few extra days of preparation time for this road game. That will help as the Offensive unit looks to find a way to replace Mark Andrews after the Tight End picked up a season ending injury in that win.

It takes away a big target from Lamar Jackson, who is also going to be looking forward to the Bye Week so he can rest up. The Quarter Back is not going to be sitting out this week and a late Bye can be beneficial with many believing the Ravens to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Lamar Jackson helps the Ravens run game with the threat he poses and big gains could be ripped off by Baltimore against this banged up Chargers Defensive Line which is allowing recent teams to pick up yards at 4.6 per carry. If they are not able to slop down Jackson, Gus Edwards and Keaton Michell, it is going to be a very long day for the Los Angeles Chargers on this side of the ball.

Slowing down the Ravens is going to be tough and that should mean Lamar Jackson is able to make a few big plays down the field, even without Andrews in the line up.

Isaiah Likely has flashed potential and will be getting a lot more targets, while it will be music to the ears of Lamar Jackson that the Chargers will be without Joey Bosa. Playing out of third and manageable should also mean Jackson has that touch more time to hit his Receivers against this Los Angeles Secondary which has allowed plenty of yards through the air.

An expectation of seeing a balanced Offensive unit makes the Ravens dangerous, while their Defense continues to play hard through the injuries.

While there have been some holes on the Baltimore Defensive Line that has seen teams pick up some big gains on the ground, the Los Angeles Offensive Line have been inconsistent. Recent games have been stronger as they look to get Austin Ekeler going as a runner, rather than a pass-catching Running Back, and it is key for the Chargers to have success establishing the run.

Moving the ball through Justin Herbert's arm and the banged up Receiving corps he is throwing too will be very difficult considering the level the Ravens Secondary have been operating at. Marlon Humphrey could be back for the Ravens with the extra time he has had between Week 11 and Week 12, while the Chargers have been inconsistent throwing the ball as the likes of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have moved onto the Injured Reserve, while Keenan Allen is fighting through the pain.

An inability to establish the run or being forced into obvious passing situations will mean Justin Herbert has to face a powerful Baltimore pass rush and it looks like a game that the Ravens should be able to dictate on both sides of the ball.

While the Ravens have not exactly been great road favourites to back, it should be noted that the Los Angeles Chargers have a losing record against the spread as the home underdog with Brandon Staley at the helm. There is a growing feeling that Staley is about to be fired as the Head Coach of the Chargers too and that can see players just drop their heads, while it is far from ideal to be distracted before facing this strong looking Baltimore team.

Covering on the road will not be easy, but Baltimore can be asked to lay the points over Thanksgiving Weekend where the road favourites have been good through Thursday and Friday.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2020 (November 26-30)

It's that time of the year for turkey and for Football, although the 2020 Thanksgiving Day schedule is one game lighter than we have become used to seeing.

The AFC North battle between the Steelers and the Ravens has been moved to Sunday, although at this point there is no guarantee the game will even be played then. A Covid-19 outbreak in the Baltimore camp has meant the prime time showing on Thanksgiving Day will be empty, although the bigger questions that will be answered in the coming days will be how the game would be re-scheduled IF the Sunday slot doesn't work either.

Before that we do have a couple of traditional Thanksgiving hosts taking to the field beginning in Detroit and then heading to Dallas. Both games look to be competitive ones on paper and the layers are not taking too many chances with the lines.

You can read my selections from Thanksgiving Day below and the remainder of the Week 12 selections will be posted later this week.

Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Pick: The traditional Thanksgiving Day NFL opener comes from Detroit where the Lions are looking to bounce back from a horrible Week 11 showing. Losing to the Carolina Panthers without Teddy Bridgewater or Christian McCaffrey would have been a disappointment anyway, but failing to score a single point has really warmed up the hot seat underneath Matt Patricia with Detroit struggling at 4-6.

They actually have the chance to host a team with a worse record on Thanksgiving Day as the Lions host the Houston Texans. However the latter are coming in off a win to move to 3-7 and while the season looks to be a lost one, the Texans are looking for a strong end to the season and have something to build upon going into 2021.

As a Miami Dolphins fan I want to see nothing but Houston losses with their first two Draft Picks in 2021 heading to South Florida. But it feels like a game that the Texans can back up their win over the New England Patriots even if it doesn't feel great thinking about backing Houston as a road underdog.

Deshaun Watson was spectacular in Week 11 and he has every chance of keeping the good times rolling against a Detroit Secondary which has struggled in pass coverage. The Lions are getting very little pressure up front and it feels like a tough day is coming up for them with Watson likely to move away from any he does see and make sure he is making some huge plays down the field.

It may be all down to Watson and his arm, but he is capable of keeping Detroit off-balance with an ability to scramble down the field when things open up for him. Duke Johnson should also be able to make one or two big plays running against a porous Detroit Defensive Line, although the main chunk plays will come from Deshaun Watson who has some strong Receivers ready to make the catches for him.

In usual circumstances I would think the Detroit Lions are the right play as the home underdog, but coming off the showing in Week 11 I do wonder if they have enough time to make adjustments and whether the players are still behind the Head Coach. The biggest factor may actually be Matthew Stafford who really struggled in Week 11 as his thumb injury continues to affect his level of play.

Matthew Stafford is missing a couple of key Receivers and the issues with the thumb do make it difficult to believe the Quarter Back can expose some of the issues that Houston have had in the Secondary. The Offensive Line has not really protected Stafford as well as they would have liked either so there may be an opportunity for the likes of JJ Watt to slow the passing game by getting to Stafford too.

There is a potential return for D'Andre Swift this week and that is a huge boost for the Detroit Lions and may ease the game for Matthew Stafford. The Running Back has shown more than flashes of his ability from the backfield and he looks to be in a favourable match up against the Houston Defensive Line giving up 144 yards per game on the ground across their last three games at 4.7 yards per carry.

Keeping Matthew Stafford in front of the chains will help and I expect Swift to have a big game from scrimmage, although at some point Houston may force the Quarter Back to have to beat them through the air. If they can force Detroit to have to throw to stay with them, it could be a long day for the hosts with the injury Stafford is dealing with.

The Texans do have some poor trends as the favourite in recent times, but they are 5-2-2 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record at home. Detroit are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog and they have lost their last three Thanksgiving Day games.

While the spread has not crossed the key number 3 I do think the road favourite can be backed here to cover.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Does anyone want to win the NFC East? At least one of the four teams are going to be hosting a PlayOff Game in January, but all four teams have won three games this season which leaves the Division wide open with six weeks of the regular season remaining.

With that in mind every Divisional game left is absolutely massive and the one on Thanksgiving Day could be pivotal for the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys. Both come into the game at 3-7 which leaves them half a game behind the Philadelphia Eagles, but the winner will move to the top of the NFC East and that is going to bring plenty of motivation to the field.

Injuries have hurt both teams but particularly the Dallas Cowboys, although signs over the last two weeks is that they are finally moving past those and focusing on their performances on the field. The win in Week 11 at Minnesota has snapped a four game losing run, while Washington also come in with some confidence having won for the second time in four games when knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals a few days ago.

The Football Team have turned to veteran Alex Smith at Quarter Back and he has played well enough without taking too many risks that produced costly turnovers in the loss to the New York Giants. This is not going to be an easy game for Smith with the Cowboys Defensive unit showing improvement in recent weeks as they finally begin to understand the new schemes that have been brought in by the Coaching staff, although Smith has to take advantage of the injuries in the Secondary if Washington are to win this game.

Ron Rivera will game plan to lean on the running game through JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson and earlier in the season it may have been a plan that was guaranteed to work. However one of the big improvements from the Dallas Defensive Line has been finding a way to clamp down on the run as injuries have cleared up a Linebacker and it may mean those two players are actually bigger threats catching short passes from the Quarter Back and trying to make plays in open space.

Both McKissic and Gibson are capable of doing that, but Washington will continue to pound the ball on the ground and look to keep the Cowboys thinking. Alex Smith is not someone who is going to take a lot of deep shots down the field, but he has been getting the passing game going and has playmakers who can cause problems for the Cowboys if he can avoid the increasingly productive Dallas pass rush and get the ball to them.

Effectively Alex Smith is a game manager who will be looking to give Washington a chance and Dallas have someone similar running things at Quarter Back at the moment too. Andy Dalton is a big upgrade on the backups that have had to start while he gets through the concussion protocol and the Quarter Back will have a point to prove having suffered that hit against the Football Team in the nation's capital a few weeks ago.

Like his counterpart, Dalton is likely going to lean on the running game to give himself a chance to keep the chains moving and Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard look to have a very good match up here. With the Offensive Line getting a couple of more secure players back, Dallas have begun to run the ball efficiently and both Elliot and Pollard should have a big impact on the game on the ground.

Tony Pollard in particularly should also give Andy Dalton a safety blanket when he seeps out of the backfield and it is an important facet of the game for Dallas as they look to slow down the much vaunted Washington pass rush. That pass rush has been able to get to the Quarter Back time after time and they are very effective when Washington have a lead, but running the ball and quick passes will slow them down a touch.

It has also been a key reason Washington have strong passing numbers in 2020, but Dallas do have some very talented Receivers who will believe they can win their battles outside and make plays for their Quarter Back too. Andy Dalton was solid throwing the ball in the win over Minnesota, although I don't think Dallas will want to lean on him having to win the game.

This feels like a good match up and I certainly think it will be a lot closer than the Washington blow out of Dallas in Week 7 when I backed the Football Team as a narrow home underdog. Dallas have to be playing with something to prove this time and I think they are definitely improving with a real belief they can win the NFC East and with a better balance Offensively the Cowboys should be more capable of winning.

However I do think the Washington Football Team have the tools to at least slow down Dallas Offensively in a better manner than the Minnesota Vikings were able to do. As long as Alex Smith avoids the big turnovers Washington should be able to move the chains and if they can get in front the pass rush should be able to rattle Andy Dalton.

It feels close as I said so taking the road team with the start that will give us a push with a Field Goal defeat is the play. The underdog has long held a strong edge in the against the spread market in this Divisional series and Washington are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen visits to Dallas.

The Football Team do not have a good recent record as a road underdog, but Dallas have not covered as a favourite in five attempts so taking the points feels good enough for me.

Markus Paul sadly passed away this week which should motivate the Dallas Cowboys to honour their Head Strength & Conditioning Coach.

New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There will have been plenty inside the organisation who feel the Cincinnati Bengals have found their franchise Quarter Back in Joe Burrow and they would have been really worried to see him go down with a serious looking injury in Week 11. The rookie is expected back in 2021, although there is no telling whether he will miss any regular season time next season.

For now the Bengals are just focusing on completing their regular season as healthy as possible, but Burrow is out and Joe Mixon is set to miss the remainder of the year too. When you are at 2-7-1 for the season the injuries to your best players will likely see the rest of the team perhaps calling time on the amount of effort they want to put in.

That is especially the case in these non-Conference games left and the Bengals will not be pushed along by a full house in the stands either.

In saying that it is not easy to back the 3-7 New York Giants to win as a big road favourite, although they are in a position to move to the top of the Division with a win on Sunday. The Giants have won back to back games and they are looking for a three game winning run for the first time in four years which is quite staggering to think.

Recent games have seen the Giants look like they are getting in some kind of rhythm and that will be encouraging to a franchise that must see the PlayOffs as a real possibility at the end of the season. Daniel Jones might not have been the most efficient Quarter Back this season, but he has been looking after the ball better than he was and that could be key for the Giants as they look to join the Washington Football Team on four wins for the season.

Daniel Jones should be able to have a decent game, although it won't be all down to the Quarter Back with the Giants Offensive Line coming together and opening some solid holes up front. They are facing a Cincinnati Defensive Line which has not been able to contain the run throughout the season and so the Giants should be in front of the chains and that should make life easier for Daniel Jones.

The Offensive Line have not always been the best in pass protection, but New York are not expected to be challenged by the Cincinnati pass rush which may mean Daniel Jones has time to expose the holes that have existed in the Secondary with an improving Receiving corps.

If Joe Burrow was playing I do think the Bengals would have made this a really competitive game, but Brandon Allen will be going at Quarter Back and that should make the game plan a little easier for the Giants. Brandon Allen does have starting experience in the NFL, but he averaged just over 170 passing yards per game in the three starts with the Denver Broncos and the key for the road team is making sure they shut down the run.

It has been an issue for the Giants Defensive Line at times this season, but they are not facing Joe Mixon which should make it easier for them to shut down the line of scrimmage. That will be what they are aiming to do and make Allen beat them through the air.

There are definitely opportunities for Allen to make plays down the field, but I do have to wonder how he will cope with the pass rush pressure that the Giants are likely to bring to the field. The Bengals should have their successes when the ball is in their hands, but I do think relying on these back ups in key skill positions Offensively will make it a big challenge to keep up on the scoreboard.

The game is definitely more important for the Giants than the Bengals and that motivation is likely to show up.

I am a little worried about backing the Giants as a road favourite, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven in that spot. They are also 15-5-1 against the spread in the last twenty-one against a team with a losing record and I like the New York Giants here.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Two weeks ago these two AFC South Divisional rivals met for the first time this season and both are coming off impressive Week 11 wins to go into this Week 12 game at 7-3. The Indianapolis Colts got the better of the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 and they are a favourite to see off their Divisional rivals in this one, although you can never underestimate the difficulty of not only beating a team twice in the same season, but also the motivation that the Titans will have in earning revenge.

The Colts deserved to win their first game although many will point to a blocked punt being the turning point in favour of Indianapolis.

Tennessee have to play a much cleaner game, but they have to be very confident having knocked off the Baltimore Ravens on the road. That win came in Overtime on the same day the Indianapolis Colts had to recover from being in a big hole to eventually knock off the Green Bay Packers.

The winning team will go into the final five weeks of the season with a big edge in terms of the Divisional race, although it feels more important for Tennessee to win this game. They can't really afford to go into those five weeks being a game behind in terms of their record and also losing the tie-breaker with the Colts.

As they do most weeks, the Titans will look to be carried on the shoulders of Derrick Henry and he is a Running Back that will never worry about the reputation of Defensive Lines that he is facing. Derrick Henry did have over 100 yards against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, but those were hard yards he had to earn and the Colts Defensive Line have been one that have played the run very well all season.

Last week they clamped down on Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams despite having to worry about the ability Aaron Rodgers has throwing the ball and that will offer the Indianapolis Defensive Line encouragement that they can at least contain Henry in this one too. Doing that will shift the pressure onto Ryan Tannehill who has just lot a bit of rhythm when throwing the ball to his Receivers in recent games.

Ryan Tannehill is likely to have some time as he is largely well protected by his Offensive Line and he is now facing a relatively pedestrian pass rush. In their previous meeting Tannehill was only put down once, but the Colts Secondary don't really lose focus on their schemes and I do think the Titans may have some issues Offensively as they did in Week 10.

Running the ball may be more of an issue for Indianapolis who have Jonathan Taylor missing out this week, although it was Nyhiem Hines who was the most effective Back in their first meeting. That should mean Indianapolis are still able to have some success on the ground, although Tennessee's Defensive Line have been tough in recent games and so Hines may instead be a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield.

Injuries in the Tennessee Secondary have made them vulnerable to the pass and I do think Philip Rivers is able to take advantage of that. He might have only had one Touchdown, but Rivers threw for over 300 yards against the Titans and I very much expect the veteran to have another very good game here.

Ultimately Rivers should have all the time he needs to hit his Receivers down the field because the Titans are missing their best pass rusher and have simply not been able to get any consistent pressure up front all season. That time has seen the Titans Secondary struggle to contain the pass and I do think the Colts are going to have too much firepower for them in this big Divisional game.

The road team has covered the spread in the last four in this series, but the favourite is 13-3 against the spread in the last sixteen in this Divisional rivalry. The Colts are also 7-2 against the spread in the last nine at home against Tennessee.

Indianapolis are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite overall, while the Titans are 1-4 against the spread in the last five on the road. I would have loved this spread to be under the key number 3, but even where it is I do like the Indianapolis Colts to take control of the AFC South.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: This is not really an ideal spot for either of these teams who are coming off tough Divisional losses in Week 11, although the Las Vegas Raiders have to be more motivated than the Atlanta Falcons. While the Raiders are at 6-4 and firmly in the PlayOff race, the Falcons are at 3-7 which leaves them in the basement of the NFC South and planning for 2021 must already have begun.

There is also the chance that the Falcons are not concerning themselves with the Las Vegas Raiders knowing they get a second crack at the New Orleans Saints in Week 13 and would love to play spoiler against them.

With that in mind I would not be that surprised if some of the key players that have been limited in practice this week are not risked in a bid to get them back on the field for the game against the Saints. One of the major names that is in doubt is Julio Jones and that would be a huge loss for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Offensive unit.

It presents a problem for the Falcons because they have been struggling to run the ball and are not likely to get a lot of joy from the Raiders Defensive Line which has been strong at controlling the line of scrimmage. That will likely mean Ryan is having to throw from third and long and missing someone as talented at getting open and making plays as Julio Jones would be a big blow.

I still think Matt Ryan can have some success against a young Las Vegas Secondary that are still learning their trade at this level and who have been exposed through the air. A late drive from the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Raiders in Week 11 and it was a fairly easy one for Patrick Mahomes- Matt Ryan isn't as good as Mahomes but Calvin Ridley gives him options and he should make some plays in this one to give the Falcons a chance.

Even then, Matt Ryan has to be careful that he is not holding the ball for too long as his Offensive Line continues to struggle to offer him passing protection. The Raiders might not be the most productive team at getting to the Quarter Back, but if the Falcons are in obvious passing down and distance Las Vegas could have some success in getting to Ryan and bringing him down.

The Raiders pass Defense may have let them down in Week 11, but Derek Carr and the Offensive unit were in an impressive rhythm and I do think Las Vegas will be able to move the chains with some consistency in this one. We have yet to see Carr show the consistency at Quarter Back to suggest he can be the franchise player for Las Vegas, but when he has been good he has been very good and the performance against the Kansas City Chiefs gives him something to build upon.

A key for Derek Carr is the balance that the Raiders should be able to set out Offensively- they have been running the ball very well even during Offensive Line injuries, but Las Vegas look to be getting healthier in that department and that is music to the ears of the team. Through the injuries they have been opening holes for Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker and both should be able to pick up from where they have been in recent weeks against an Atlanta team struggling on the ground.

Derek Carr does have some quality Receiving options and he has been given as much time as he needs to make plays by his Offensive Line. I think he will be able to throw the ball down the field as play-action slows down the Atlanta pass rush, which is not the best, and I really do like the Raiders to win on the road.

The second game with the New Orleans Saints in three weeks sandwiches this game and that has to be a distraction for the Atlanta Falcons in a non-Conference game with the season likely over.

Las Vegas are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven on the road and they are 11-5 against the spread in their last sixteen when looking to bounce back from a defeat. I do have to respect the Falcons who are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen as the home underdog, but they may be concentrating on other opponents and I like the Raiders to be the one who can bounce back from a Week 11 Divisional loss.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: It is all change at Quarter Back for both of these AFC East teams going into Week 12 and it may be the final chance for Sam Darnold to show the New York Jets that he can be a franchise Quarter Back for them. He has only recently been the First Round Draft selection of the Jets, but injuries and a really poorly built roster around him and a terrible Head Coach have all been detrimental to Darnold's development.

The problem for Sam Darnold is that if there are sweeping changes made at the Jets in the off-season, the likelihood is that any new General Manager or Head Coach may want their own Quarter Back behind Center and won't want to live or die by choices made by those previously in charge.

The New York Jets are the only team in the NFL who have yet to win a game and they are very much on course to finish with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2021 Draft which would likely mean a choice between Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. It is the nature of the NFL, but Sam Darnold will be looking to display his talents over the last six games and at least earn another opportunity with a different team even if things don't work out with the Jets.

Sam Darnold will be coming in for veteran Joe Flacco who almost helped the Jets produce a maiden win in his last couple of starts. However Darnold is going up against a very good Miami Dolphins Defense which has been the main reason the team are at 6-4 for the season and on course to challenge for the AFC East as well as a PlayOff spot.

With the Offensive Line banged up, the Dolphins may be able to crack into the backfield and either clamp down on the run or get to Sam Darnold and force errant throws or drop him for Sacks. The Dolphins have not always been strong on the ground, but Frank Gore is unlikely to intimidate this Defensive Line which has some key names back from injuries and illness.

I do feel there is a talented player inside Sam Darnold that would be unlocked in a better environment, but that we are not likely to see that in Week 12. This Miami Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and the Dolphins have made big play after big play which is going to make it very difficult for Sam Darnold to avoid making a mistake or two that really gives the visiting team the edge.

The Miami Dolphins will be hoping their own young Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa is able to show he is capable of performing at this level for years to come, but injury looks set to keep him out. Personally I would have kept Tagovailoa on the sidelines and learning for the whole year, but Head Coach Brian Flores brought him in and the Dolphins kept winning until an ugly loss in Week 11 at the Denver Broncos.

Prior to that it was Ryan Fitzpatrick who was leading the Dolphins very successfully and he only just came up short in helping Miami recover from a big deficit in Week 11. The veteran is going back behind Center this week and I do think Fitzpatrick is the better option for Miami for the remainder of the season and certainly encourages me to pick them to win this game.

The AFC East is still up for grabs for the Miami Dolphins and so is the Wild Card places in the AFC so there should be a motivation to bounce back from the disappointing loss last time out. One of the main issues the Dolphins have had Offensively is being able to run the ball with any consistency and they are not likely to have a lot of success in this one either.

However I am more encouraged by the news that Fitzpatrick will be starting at Quarter Back rather than Tagovailoa because I think he is the better player for the Dolphins at this stage of their respective careers. I do think 'Fitz Magic' can expose the New York Secondary which is banged up and giving up some big gains in recent games, while the Miami Offensive Line should give Ryan Fitzpatrick the time he needs to help Miami win this game.

The Dolphins have won five of their last six games against the New York Jets including beating them 24-0 at home earlier this season.

Miami are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite and they have covered in their last four games following a loss. The Jets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog, but I am not sure they can make enough Offensive plays to make up for the weak Secondary performances we have seen and it should see the Dolphins beat the Jets again and cover this mark too.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: These two teams may have contrasting records, but both the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles go into Monday Night Football in Week 12 with a chance to end the evening on top of their Division. The Seahawks have enjoyed the Sunday NFL schedule as their two closest rivals in the NFC West were both beaten, while the Philadelphia Eagles can retake the NFC East lead with a win after seeing the New York Giants and Washington Football Team produce a fourth win of the season.

This feels like a bigger game for the Eagles who have a more difficult remaining schedule than the Seattle Seahawks, but that does not mean Pete Carroll's men are arriving on the east coast of the United States without ambition. They last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and that means Seattle are not only well rested, but they have also gotten some really good injury news that will bolster the team on the Defensive side of the ball.

While the Secondary has not played up to the best level, there have been signs that the overall Seattle Defensive performances have been improving. The Secondary has not been helped by injuries, but they are getting a couple of key players back and that is going to make things difficult for Carson Wentz who has been inconsistent to say the least in the regular season.

He has not been helped by his Offensive Line nor the injuries in the Receiving positions, but that is not an entire excuse for Wentz whose long-term future as the Quarter Back of the Philadelphia Eagles will be beginning to be questioned. In this game his team are going up against a strong Seattle Defensive Line which has not only been able to rattle the Quarter Back, but who have shut down the run and that is only going to increase the challenge for Carson Wentz.

If the Eagles are not able to run the ball there is a real doubt that Wentz will be given the time to try and convert third and long spots and that has regularly seen the Quarter Back push too much and end up making key mistakes. The injuries being cleared up in the Seattle Secondary should mean they are able to make one or two plays that have not been there in the 2020 season and I think it will be very hard for Philadelphia to have consistent Offensive success.

It is the Philadelphia Defensive unit which may be able to keep them in this Monday Night Football game. They have been strong against the run too, although I do think Seattle are going to be able to make one or two plays on the ground with an increasingly healthy Running Back committee that should be music to the ears of Russell Wilson.

The Quarter Back has shown he can make plays on the ground when he is looking to scramble away from trouble and Russell Wilson is going to need all of that if they are going to win this game. While there have been one or two holes exploited in the Secondary, the Philadelphia Defensive Line has been able to really get after the Quarter Back and this Seattle Offensive Line have long been struggling when it comes to protecting Russell Wilson.

Fortunately for Seattle Wilson is one of the premier play-makers on the run and he has some big weapons in the Receiving corps that are able to scramble with him and make space for throws down the field. The pressure up front has meant that the Secondary have been able to make one or two plays, but I am not sure the Eagles will be able to shut down this Seattle passing game with the size and speed they have outside.

Turnovers could really play a big part in this game, but.I do think the Seattle Seahawks have had the time to prepare which will give them a chance of winning this one. They have covered the spread in their last five games at Philadelphia and Seattle won twice in this Stadium last season by the same 17-9 scoreline.

Seattle are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record at home. The Eagles have won their last two home games, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten here and I will look for the Seattle Seahawks to cover.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders - 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2016 (November 24-28)

Thanksgiving Day is here and that means the NFL are going to provide three games for the viewers to go along with their turkey (at least for those in the United States).

Week 12 of the NFL season is about to get set to go and this is the point of the season when I do try and predict the Play Off teams as we start seeing the difference between the pretenders and the contenders.

I would be surprised if New England and Dallas don't hold the Number 1 Seeds in the two Conferences, although there isn't much room for mistakes as I see both Oakland and Seattle being able to push them all the way and eventually ending with the Number 2 Seeds in their respective Conferences.

At the moment I also see the NFC East and AFC West both sending three teams to the Play Offs with Denver and Kansas City joining Oakland and Philadelphia and Washington joining Dallas in the post-season.

Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Minnesota and Atlanta make up the remaining teams to make the Play Offs if I was to predict the rest of the season, but we all know the NFL is so fluid and changes week after week with upsets never far away.

Last week I felt a little sick to not come away with a winning week as I seemed to get little fortune on my side. Both Dallas and Detroit scored late Field Goals which saw them cover their numbers after I had backed Baltimore and Jacksonville who had been in winning positions going into the final two minutes of games.

You could even make an argument for Arizona being closer than the six point loss, but Green Bay were bad again as the picks went 3-4 but could easily have been 5-2 if they had finished in the manner they perhaps should have.

This week I am going to have my picks from the NFL Thanksgiving Day games out first and will add the Sunday and Monday picks in the next couple of days. Hopefully a positive Thursday can set me up for a big Week 12 to get back to winning ways.


Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: The first Thanksgiving Day game is hosted by the Detroit Lions and this might be one of the bigger ones they have played in years with the NFC North Division lead on the line when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. Both teams have 6-4 records and the Detroit Lions also have beaten the Minnesota Vikings which means this game might mean a lot more to the visitors who will effectively be two games behind the Lions if they are to be beaten on Thursday.

The first game was very close with Matt Prater forcing Overtime with a huge Field Goal before the Lions were able to prevail on the road. There looks to be little doubt that this will be another low-scoring game between these teams barring short fields thanks to Special Teams plays and turnovers.

There is a chance we will see big time Special Teams with both the Lions and Vikings using a big Punt Return and a Kick Return to win games respectively last week. However those elements can be very difficult to predict and instead you have to look at this game and look at how it is most likely to go down.

The Defensive units look to be the superior ones on the field at any time, but the Minnesota Vikings have not been as effective as earlier in the season. The first five opponents the Vikings faced didn't score more than 16 points, but the last five opponents have all scored at least 20 points which has to be a concern. On the other hand the Detroit Defense have given up 20 points or fewer to their last four opponents and so the chances of seeing a lot of scoring from this Thanksgiving Day game seems unlikely to say the least.

One of the issues the Vikings have had in recent weeks is slowing down the run, but that isn't exactly the strength of the Detroit Offense and so it hard to see how they take full advantage of that. Instead much looks like it will be down to Matt Stafford at Quarter Back who has had a decent season, but doesn't have the best set of Receivers now that Calvin Johnson is gone.

There is some criticism that Stafford used to be too obvious in going to Johnson at big moments, but he has shared the ball around a lot more and that hasn't always been helpful with some bad routes run and drops at critical times. Stafford could be under some pressure if dropping back from third and long spots, but he gets the ball out quickly and has avoided taking too many Sacks or turning the ball over.

Drives could bog down and Detroit could have to settle for Field Goals in this one, while the Punter should get plenty of work too.

The same could be said for Minnesota though who have really had a hard time of late and just about snapped a four game losing run last week. While the Defensive unit should be improved with players returning from injury, the continued absence of Adrian Peterson has resulted in the Vikings struggling to run the ball and it is not likely to change much this week.

It will mean Sam Bradford has to make plays through the air and he is likely to be without Stefon Diggs in this one. While Kyle Rudolph is a threat and Bradford did have a solid game against Detroit two weeks ago, Detroit have Ziggy Ansah back on the Defensive Line and might have more success getting to the Quarter Back than they did in Week 10 when taking down Bradford twice.

Like Stafford, Bradford has looked after the ball and that is going to be key in a game where points could come at a premium. Therefore it could once again come down to the kickers after Prater hit two from 50 plus yards in the first game earlier this month, while Blair Walsh missed an Extra Point and a Field Goal for Minnesota. Walsh has since been cut and Kai Forbath has been signed as a replacement.

I am not sure I trust Forbath more than Prater, but I do think the Vikings can make enough plays to win this one on the road. These teams are closely matched, but I do think Detroit are not quite as good as their record while they have a 4-8 record against the spread in recent Thanksgiving Day games. Minnesota are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Detroit and I think they might be on the right side of a close game this time.

I do think the Minnesota Defensive unit is getting healthier and they can make a few more big plays to stop Detroit than the other way around. I think the Lions are underrated on the Defensive side of the ball, but Bradford has been smart with the ball and I will take the points with the Minnesota Vikings.


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The NFC East might be the best Division in the NFL or at least it would be arguing it out with the AFC West and two of the teams meet in a big Thanksgiving Day game. The Dallas Cowboys moved to 9-1 thanks to another win in Week 11 and remain on course to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but the Washington Redskins are not too far behind with their 6-3-1 record and another appearance in the Play Offs looks to be on course.

For now these teams will concentrate on their second Divisional meeting after a really good game in Week 2 that the Washington Redskins will feel they gave away. Since then they have had a number of injuries on the Defensive side of the ball as they try to slow down the two rookie sensations that have been leading the Cowboys to nine straight wins.

Not many teams have been able to slow down Ezekiel Elliot at Running Back and I don't really think the Redskins Defensive Line are going to have a lot of success in this one. While recent games might have shown improvement, Washington have played Cincinnati, Minnesota and Green Bay and none of those teams have an Offensive Line like the Dallas Cowboys. Instead you have to think Elliot is going to have a really big game for the Cowboys which should set up Dak Prescott to follow suit.

Dez Bryant might be shadowed by Josh Norman in this one, but there are plenty of holes in the Washington Secondary if Prescott sees the Washington pass rush slow down by the running game. I expect Bryant can win some of his battles with Norman, but the likes of Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten can see their fair share of big catches as well as Elliot leaking out of the backfield.

Dallas should be moving the chains with some consistency in this one, but the Redskins are going to be confident behind Kirk Cousins who has improved significantly from the start of the season. The doubters in the locker room after the loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home have been silenced and Cousins outplayed Aaron Rodgers in a home win in Week 11.

'Fat Rob' Kelley at Running Back has given Washington a real boost after the fumbles of Matt Jones and he is the kind of Back that will get a few yards after initial contact. I do like the way Dallas have played up front, but Kelley can have some big gains which can help Cousins who is good enough to make some big plays against a Cowboys Secondary that is dealing with injuries.

You do have to think the Dallas Defenders are going to be focused on shutting down Kelley after he called them the Cowgirls a couple of days ago, but the bigger challenge will come against Cousins at Quarter Back. Cousins has been well protected by his Offensive Line although the absence of Trent Williams is still an issue despite how well Ty Nsekhe has played at Left Tackle and Dallas will look to get near the Quarter Back and force him to throw the ball much quicker than he wants.

However getting time should mean Cousins is able to make some big throws to the likes of Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson although the last of those may not be available. I do think Cousins will have success but he will be under pressure to keep up with the Dallas Cowboys in a shoot out and having to play in the late game on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 going into this one looks a really tough spot for them.

There has to be some fatigue with even less time to travel and prepare for this game and that could be a big factor as the game wears on. Washington do have a very good record in Dallas in recent years, while playing on Thanksgiving Day has been tough for the Cowboys, but I think these trends will be reversed in Week 12. The Dallas Cowboys will look to wear down Washington with their Offensive Line and I can see them pulling away for a win by around ten-fourteen points in a high scoring shoot out.

Both teams should have success Offensively, but fatigue might mean Washington playing keep up and Cousins eventually making a mistake which allows Dallas an extra possession to cover this number.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I have picked the Pittsburgh Steelers twice as a road favourite of more than a Touchdown twice this season and so far those picks have gone 1-1. The first lost when Ben Roethlisberger was virtually knocked out of the game at Miami, but the Steelers did cover as a big road favourite at the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in Week 11.

Now I am going to go back and look to break the tie in a positive way as I like the Pittsburgh Steelers to remain focused and win this game at the Indianapolis Colts. The Steelers are in the midst of a really tough AFC North Divisional race and Pittsburgh catch a break, and also face this big spread, because Andrew Luck has been ruled out for the hosts.

That's not what the television companies would have wanted to hear when obviously picking Roethlisberger versus Luck in the late Thanksgiving Day game, but the latter is in the concussion protocol after taking a heavy fall to the turf in the Week 11 win over Tennessee. It means Scott Tolzien will get the start at Quarter Back and it is a big test for the former Green Bay Packer on a short week and with the television cameras broadcasting this game to the entire United States.

The pressure will be on Tolzien as it is unlikely that Frank Gore and the running game is going to offer too much support on the ground. The Steelers have shown improvement up front with just 3.1 yards per game given up over their last three games despite going up against Ezekiel Elliot and the Dallas Cowboys during that time. Pittsburgh will likely force Tolzien to throw the ball by loading the line of scrimmage and daring Indianapolis to take advantage through the air.

With Andrew Luck under Center the Colts would have been able to make some big plays through the air, but it will be much tougher for Tolzien who was average when having to start in place of Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers. This Offensive Line doesn't offer the same level of protection and Pittsburgh could be in the Quarter Back's face a lot in this one which can lead to mistakes although the Secondary have had some problems to suggest Tolzien makes some plays.

He will need to do that because this looks a really nice match up for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers even though they are dealing with some issues at the Wide Receiver position. Importantly none of those issues involve Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell and Big Ben is going to be throwing into a Secondary missing some key players which makes it tough to slow down this passing Offense. Ladarius Green gives Roethlisberger another big weapon in the End Zone and Bell is also off a big running performance and can keep the yards churning on the ground.

Barring drops or Roethlisberger having one of his worst games of his career, I can only see the Steelers being too strong for the Colts on a short week and with a back up Quarter Back. That might mean others bring their best to try and help Indianapolis, but they won't be able to run the ball as they want and I can't see the Colts keeping up with a potent Offense like the Steelers.

Pittsburgh have blown out Indianapolis in 2014 and 2015 as they hung 51 and then 45 points on them, but both games were played at home. The fast track in Indianapolis should suit Pittsburgh too though and I will look for them to record a big win on the road.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I still don't know how the Jacksonville Jaguars failed to cover in Week 11 in their loss to the Detroit Lions but missing out by a couple of points can be thanked on three moments. One was a Punt Return TD, another was a Interception returned for a TD and the third was giving up a Field Goal with less than 30 seconds to play in the game.

That loss has virtually eliminated their chances of making it to the Play Offs in what has become a very disappointing season for the Jaguars. They dropped to 2-8 when many tipped them up as a dark horse this season for the Play Offs and now the pressure is on Gus Bradley to show he is the right Head Coach to take this team forward into 2017.

They head to the Buffalo Bills this weekend who are coming off a big win at Cincinnati and very much in the Play Off race in the AFC. The Bills can't afford to overlook the Jaguars with some big games to come, but a loss would put Buffalo in a really difficult position and Rex Ryan has to be preaching that all week.

Injuries are an issue for the Bills who have LeSean McCoy banged up, although set to play in Week 12, while both Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins are big losses in the Receiving position. With Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back the Bills have been very much a run orientated Offense and he should combine with McCoy to give Jacksonville some problems, although the Jaguars Defensive unit is perhaps underrated. The Defensive Line has been very strong through the season and they could have success in at least slowing the huge gains that the Bills have been known to rip off on the ground.

The Offensive Line has also been much better when running the ball and protection for Taylor will break down with the pressure Jacksonville are able to get up front. That has helped an improving Secondary and the Jaguars can continue to show the improvement Defensively to keep this one close. But then it all comes down to whether the Offense can provide a spark if the Jaguars are going to win this game.

Blake Bortles has regressed significantly at Quarter Back and has been guilty of the back breaking turnovers which have cost the Jaguars in recent games. He is actually a doubt for this game, but I don't think the move to Chad Henne will hurt as much as it would have in the 2015 season if Bortles can't go.

It hasn't all been on Bortles because the Jaguars have been made to look a little one-dimensional of late with issues running the ball. They won't have much success to do that against the Bills this week whose Defensive Line have been bolstered by Marcel Dareus although the Buffalo Secondary have given up some big plays.

A fierce pass rush is a problem for whoever plays at Quarter Back but I do think the Jaguars can make this a competitive game and getting more than a Touchdown worth of points looks huge. With the Bills having Oakland and Pittsburgh next up on deck, there is every chance they are a little lacklustre against a 2-8 Jaguars team whose underrated Defensive unit can prevent Buffalo from running away with it.

That is as long as Jacksonville avoid the turnovers which have killed them in recent games and play the Special Teams better than they did last week in Detroit. Those are the 'x factors' in games that are hard to predict, but this does look a lot of points for the road team to be given in this one and I will back the Jaguars in this game.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Marvin Lewis has had a successful time as Head Coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, but failing to make the Play Offs might put him on the hot seat at the end of the season. The Bengals are 2.5 games out of the AFC North lead, but a loss to the Baltimore Ravens will really put them behind the black ball and injuries have contributed to a difficult season for them.

It hasn't been that much easier for Baltimore who were beaten in Dallas last week which means they have dropped five of their last seven games. However they are 3-0 in the AFC North Divisional games and a win would move the Ravens to 6-5 for the season and once again give them the lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to a head to head win over them.

The Ravens have been inconsistent Offensively which has slowed down their win rate in recent weeks but they could find some encouragement against this Cincinnati Defensive unit. Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon have not separated themselves as the main Running Back, but both could have solid games against this Bengals Defensive Line which has struggled in recent weeks with some signs in recent games that Baltimore are getting the run going effectively.

That is so important to keep things open for Joe Flacco who has begun to take a few more shots down the field since Marc Trestman was fired as Offensive Co-Ordinator. Flacco has been protected by the Offensive Line and the Bengals pass rush has not been as strong as in recent seasons, while their Receivers can find separation against a Secondary that hasn't been able to replace Reggie Nelson and whose Corner Backs look to have lost a step in coverage.

It should mean the pressure is on Cincinnati and Andy Dalton to stay with the Ravens and that is not going to be easy with both Giovani Bernard and AJ Green on the sidelines. The loss of Green should have a huge impact in this game for Dalton, although he does have Tyler Eifert who is a big time Receiver from Tight End. However playing against this Baltimore Defensive unit is not easy with a fully healthy Offense and it could be a long day for Dalton.

There won't be a lot of support from Jeremy Hill running the ball after Baltimore showed they could compete with the vaunted Dallas Offensive Line and that will put the pressure on Dalton. He has had a hard time behind the Offensive Line which has not protected him well and Baltimore should get some pressure on Dalton which can lead to mistakes without the go-to Receiver in Green.

Baltimore have not been that consistent this season, but they can snap their five game losing run to the Bengals in this one. They look to have enough of an edge on both sides of the ball as they take advantage of the injuries in the Cincinnati team and I think the Ravens can come away with a win by around seven to ten points.


Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Bruce Arians has returned from hospital having been taken there last weekend and he has been back Coaching up the Arizona Cardinals who have fallen far short of expectations. A loss to the Minnesota Vikings has put the Cardinals in a desperate spot and anything other than going 5-1 in their final six games might mean missing out on the Play Offs.

Games against the likes of the Atlanta Falcons could have huge Play Off implications for the Cardinals going forward and they can't afford to lose this game with potential tiebreakers in play in January. It won't be easy against an Atlanta team that have likely been steaming for two weeks since losing to the Philadelphia Eagles and trying to keep their rivals in the NFC South in arms distance.

The Arizona Defensive unit have performed to the kind of level expected and it was Special Teams and turnovers which cost them in Minnesota last weekend. One concern has to be that Patrick Peterson might be missing this weekend as the cover Corner who would have been assigned Julio Jones, a big time Receiver who has had two weeks to get back to better health.

Tevin Coleman is also back for the Falcons at Running Back to give them a one-two punch with DeVonta Freeman, but the Arizona Defensive Line have been stout for much of the season. However both players give Matt Ryan another Receiving option when they leak out of the backfield and I can see them having an impact in this game.

There has also been a decent pass rush established by the Cardinals and Matt Ryan has had to scramble around to make plays. He will have some more issues making plays into the Secondary which has performed well although the absence of Peterson would be a big blow for the Cardinals.

So this may come down to whether Carson Palmer can finally start showing that he is far from a faded force in the NFL at Quarter Back. He has been a big problem for the Cardinals this season and one of the big reasons they are at 4-5-1 going into Week 12 of the season. A vintage Palmer and any decent Quarter Back in the NFL would be very keen on the match up against this Atlanta Secondary which is missing Desmond Trufant although his availability for this game is questionable.

A problem for Palmer has been an Offensive Line hasn't been that good in protection and Atlanta have been able to get some pressure up front, but a bigger issue for the Quarter Back has been the bad throws that have led to Interceptions. This isn't a Secondary that has made too many big plays through the season though and I do think Palmer can bounce back from a really poor performance at Minnesota where he virtually cost the Cardinals the win.

He will be helped by the fact that David Johnson should find better running lanes in this one and could churn out some yards on the ground to keep the Offense in third and short which will help. Johnson is one of the best Backs in the NFL, and he can also be dangerous as a Receiver out of the backfield and I do think the Cardinals can keep this one close.

They are getting a few more points than last week because of the Peterson status but they can move the chains in this one and the Falcons have been involved in plenty of close games this season. Only one of the last five Atlanta games has seen the Falcons win by more than six points and I will look for Palmer to have one of his better games this season and help the Cardinals keep up with the Falcons in a shoot out.


New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The New York Giants go into Week 12 with the Number 5 Seed in the NFC and they can't afford to drop a silly game against the winless Cleveland Browns. The Giants have some really tough games to play the remainder of the 2016 season if they want to get into the Play Offs and that makes it even more important that they don't overlook the Browns who have lurched from disaster to disaster.

There are still some questions about the Giants and how good they actually are with some tough, grind it out victories. One of the problems for them has been the one-dimensional nature of the Offense as they have struggled to run the ball and the Giants won't have much of a chance to do that in this game either.

In recent games the Browns have been better on the Defensive Line and slowing down the run will mean Eli Manning has to drop back and make plays to a number of solid Receivers he has at his disposal. Manning should have the time to throw the ball as Cleveland have struggled to get to the Quarter Back and Manning has been willing to throw the ball quickly to Receivers running slants and capable of making plenty of yards after the catch.

With Joe Haden banged up at best, the Giants should be able to get the ball to the likes of Odell Beckham Jr to keep the chains moving and the New York Football Giants to score their points.

It will be up to Josh McCown at Quarter Back this weekend for the Cleveland Browns as their musical chairs approach to that position continues to frustrate the fans and the media. This is a difficult game for McCown to come into as he is going to have to make a lot of the plays himself with the difficulties that Cleveland have had in running the ball in recent games and facing a Giants Defensive Line that have been stout up front.

With the Offensive Line issues, McCown is going to have some real problems throwing the ball even if Jean Pierre-Paul is unable to suit up. They have been giving up too many Sacks as Receivers have struggled to get open, and the Giants can get close to McCown and look to take him down or force him to make mistakes. Landon Collins has been an Interception machine for Giants and it would be no surprise if he was to pick up another one as a poor Cleveland team self-destruct again.

This is a lot of points for the Giants to cover, but it is hard to see how Cleveland can keep up with them thanks to the Offensive problems they have been having in recent weeks. I can't imagine the Giants overlooking them with the games they have got coming up and I think the Browns have been a mess while they are going to be missing a key Corner Back, or at least have Haden limited, which will make it tough to stop the Giants.

I can only see the Giants taking control and pulling away in the second half for a comfortable road win and I will back them to cover the points.


San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: As a Miami Dolphins fan, the 1-4 start to the season has become too much of a familiar sight and not many would have predicted the kind of turnaround they have had since then. Adam Gase needs a lot of credit at Head Coach as the Dolphins have won every game since to move to 6-4 and very much in the Play Off mix in the AFC.

One concern has to be the injuries they have suffered on the Offensive Line which may see the Dolphins missing at least two of the five starters this week. That Offensive Line has been the reason Miami have started winning games as they have punched out some big holes for Jay Ajayi which has also meant huge gains for the Running Back and keeping Ryan Tannehill from making mistakes at Quarter Back.

Even a banged up Dolphins Offensive Line will feel they win the battle with the San Francisco Defensive Line who have been battered on the ground over the last few weeks. I fully think Ajayi has a solid outing in this one, while Tannehill has the Receivers who can make plays down the field when the Linebackers edge forward.

Eric Reid is the latest player to go down for the season for the 49ers and Miami can take advantage of a team that has to travel across the country to play an early start. That is never easy for any team and the 49ers could have a long day if their Defensive unit are not able to get off the field and have to stay out in the sun for extended time.

It won't go completely the Miami way as San Francisco have started some of their games effectively on the Offensive side of the ball. Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde gives the 49ers a chance to at least run the ball although the Miami Defensive Line have been able to shut down better Offensive Lines than the one they will face in Week 12.

Kaepernick also has a couple of targets in the passing game that could make the plays to keep the chains moving forward. However the Quarter Back can't hold the ball for too long with the pressure Miami have gotten up front thanks to the likes of Cameron Wake and it has felt like Kaepernick has been unable to put in a 60 minute game as teams adjust to what he is trying to do.

This is a big number for Miami who simply don't get asked to cover these spreads too often. In fact it has been at least three seasons that they have been favoured by at least seven points and that could play a part in the mindset even if the Dolphins can't afford too many more losses thanks to their poor start.

I still think Miami can do it though because they are facing a San Francisco team who haven't been able to keep up in games with Defensive problems. Injuries are hurting that unit too and I think Miami will wear them out with Jay Ajayi and they can pull away for a win by double digits like so many have done against the San Francisco 49ers.


Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Seattle Seahawks are doing Seattle Seahawks things by getting hot in the final third of the NFL regular season which makes them a big danger in the Play Offs. The Seahawks are travelling across the country for this road game, but they haven't played badly in this spot previously and Seattle are fully focused as they look to chase down the Dallas Cowboys for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

They can't take anything for granted at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have won two in a row and that has seen them close on the Atlanta Falcons for the lead in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have been a little inconsistent though and they have not been as good at home which is a concern going forward, while Jameis Winston has not always shown his best when the top teams face him.

Winston is facing one of the best Defensive units in the NFL in Week 12, but one that is missing Earl Thomas at Safety. That is a blow to the Legion of Boom who have allowed some big numbers through the air, but some of that has been down to teams playing catch up and having to throw against them.

The Buccaneers can have some success moving the ball through the air with Cameron Brate and Mike Evans proving to be reliable targets for Winston. However the Quarter Back is likely to feel the pressure when he drops back to throw the ball and Seattle have been very strong at getting to the Quarter Back and taking him down even without Michael Bennett in the line up.

Slowing down the pass rush by running the ball effectively is not really possible for Tampa Bay in this game either and so it could be tough for the Buccaneers to consistently move the chains even though Thomas is out at Safety.

Moving the chains doesn't look like being as big a concern for the Seattle Seahawks with Russell Wilson back to full health at Quarter Back. His ankle issues look to be behind him and the Buccaneers are going to have some problems preventing Wilson having a big game with Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham capable of making the moves to break down the coverage as Wilson scrambles around the backfield.

Thomas Rawls is also back to give Seattle a better running game which should be able to get going against the Buccaneers who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry in recent games and might be more focused on stopping the pass. With Russell Wilson looking after the ball effectively too, it could be tough for Tampa Bay to stay with Seattle in a shoot out and I do like the road team to win this one.

The Buccaneers have had some problems at home in recent seasons and this game is kicking off at around 1pm West Coast time which should suit the road team. The public are backing Seattle but I can see the Seahawks being too good and making some big Defensive plays to come through with a ten point win on the road so I will back them to cover this number.


New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: The New England Patriots have made some big trades with players leaving the team and those don't look like they will be the ones that the Patriots will look back on with fondness. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins have been moved out since the end of last season and the Patriots Defensive unit have had some problems this season.

Most will feel they can bounce back and blow out the New York Jets on the road in Week 12 and I am not surprised with the public pounding the Patriots. However I think this is going to be closer than most people think and want to back the Jets with more than a Touchdown start in this game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not going to be the answer for the Jets at Quarter Back but he is back as the starter coming out of the bye week which hasn't impressed the local media. However Todd Bowles believes this Quarter Back gives the Jets the best chance of winning the game and I have to agree with him.

It won't be up to Fitzpatrick to win the game though as Matt Forte should have a great game running the ball against a New England team that have been struggling up front. Forte is also a pass catching threat out of the backfield and he can help keep the Jets in third and manageable spots where Fitzpatrick isn't asked to make too many risky throws that have blighted his career.

Running the ball should also be effective in slowing down the pass rush that the Patriots have been able to generate and Fitzpatrick does have Receivers like Brandon Marshall who can make the big catches to keep the chains moving. The Jets have not been that productive in recent games Offensively, but they can do better against the Patriots Defense especially coming out of a bye week.

On the other side of the ball it is going to be far from easy for the Patriots and Tom Brady to have the kind of Offensive production they are used to. The Jets Defensive Line is amongst the best in the NFL so you have to think this will come down to Brady's arm if the Patriots are going to win the game, but the Jets Secondary have also shown some improvement prior to the bye.

However you do have to believe Brady can have a solid outing even if Rob Gronkowski is limited and the Patriots can have some success. On the other hand this is the kind of game that the Jets look forward to more than any other and and I expect their team to come out firing out of a bye week and trying to at least ruin a rival's season.

The Defensive unit can keep this close immediately, but a clean game from Fitzpatrick should mean the Offensive unit can keep up with New England and make these points very important. Getting more than a Touchdown looks too appealing and I will back the home underdog in this spot.


I've added the pick from Monday Night Football below to close Week 12 of the NFL season.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)