NFL Week 13 Picks 2024 (Thursday 28th November-Monday 2nd December)

Thanksgiving Day Weekend is here and that means the ambitions of teams will begin to clear up.

There are a host of teams that may be thinking ahead to finishing with a high NFL Draft Pick and beginning to turn around their franchises, even if Head Coaches refuse to entertain the idea of tanking. Ultimately they are being paid to win NFL games, even if those above them would prefer to finish with enough losses to secure a top Draft Pick and that kind of split is hard to balance up.

We have seen the New York Giants players unafraid of voicing their opinions having seen Daniel Jones dropped as the starting Quarter Back and later released- to then follow that up by picking the third string Quarter Back to take over as the starter has made it clear that the Giants are not serious about winning games and that is not going to go down very well with the locker room.

Some teams are looking ahead to the future and picking a player that can change their fortunes, but for many teams the focus is on trying to earn a Playoff spot and then making a real run towards the Super Bowl.

There looks to be some stand out teams, but we are only just heading into December during Week 13 and the schedules are designed in a way where the bigger games are played in the remaining weeks of the regular season. Things could quickly unravel for teams who look good, while there always seems to be one or two teams that can pick up a lot of momentum in the final month of the regular season and take that into the post-season where they can upset some of the higher Seeds.

Identifying those potential teams is not easy, but the Miami Dolphins are looking pretty good and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a team used to making late runs that have led to the Playoffs too.

Week 13 brings a number of primetime games with three on Thanksgiving Day and then the Black Friday game before heading into the weekend.

It has been a tough three weeks for the NFL Picks, although the last two weeks have been more frustrating than anything else.

On another occasion Week 12 would have ended with a 4-2 record, but the Minnesota Vikings blew a huge lead in Chicago and the Arizona Cardinals made a couple of key mistakes in losing in Seattle when they looked to be in a position to win.

Things like this happen, but it is a bit annoying off the back of a couple of rough weeks and the hope is tha the bounce of the ball is a bit more favourable over the next few days to get things turned back around.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: Seven defeats in a row on Thanksgiving Day might be hard to swallow, especially as the Detroit Lions (10-1) host the first game of the holiday, but this current team is all about breaking new ground. Nine wins in a row have kept them in front of the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in the loaded NFC North and many feel Detroit might be the best team in the NFL.

Next up is a Divisional showdown with the Chicago Bears (4-7) who have actually handed three of the last seven Thanksgiving Day defeats to the Detroit Lions.

However, the Bears have dropped five games in a row to fall out of contention within the Division, although they could easily have won three of those. The stunning Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders has sparked the losing run, but the Bears also have had a blocked Field Goal prevent them from beating the Green Bay Packers and suffered an Overtime loss in Week 12 against the Minnesota Vikings.

At 7-5, the Bears might have been arriving in Detroit filled with confidence, but losing five straight means this is very much a learning season for Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. He had been struggling, but performed well in the last two games against Divisional rivals and that may at least mean he can play with some belief when opening up Thanksgiving Day on the road.

He will have to be aware of the huge challenge in front of him against this Detroit Defensive unit which has been playing with a lot of energy and intensity for three straight weeks. They were the reason that the Lions were able to overcome the Houston Texans in Week 10 thanks to some big second half turnovers and the Lions Defense has allowed just 12 points in their last couple of wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts.

Stepping up their play from the front, the Lions Defensive Line have made it very tough to run the ball against them and that is going to be problematic for Caleb Williams and the Bears. With an Offensive Line struggling in pass protection, the run has been key to pushing the Chicago Bears into third and manageable spots on the field and subsequently enabled Williams to not have to hold onto the ball for too long.

He does have some veteran Receivers to help out, but Caleb Williams will find it tough to allow routes to develop whenever the Bears are playing from behind the chains. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions can generate some pressure up front and Williams has made a couple of rookie mistakes in taking Sacks when he should be getting rid of the ball to fight in another Down.

Credit has to be given to the rookie Quarter Back for at least avoiding big mistakes in the passing game, but he will have to be aware of the danger of throwing into this Detroit Secondary when they are expecting the pass to be made. Interceptions could be key to turning this game completely in favour of the Lions, especially if the Bears Defensive unit cannot pick up their own level of play.

They have been involved in some competitive losses recently, but the Bears are giving up almost 400 yards of Offense in recent defeats and that is significantly higher than their early season performances. Now they have to face a Detroit team that has a hugely balanced Offense and that is going to make it very difficult for the Chicago Bears to make stops.

A one-two punch out of the backfield sets everything up for the Lions, although former Bears Running Back David Montgomery could potentially miss out. Even if he cannot go, Jahmyr Gibbs has shown he is more than capable of breaking out a big run or two and is also offering a real threat in the passing game.

The Chicago Secondary has just found it tough to stop teams as they have stepped up their level of competition and it is very likely that Jared Goff is able to turn the Detroit fortunes around on Thanksgiving Day. He is well protected, which means having plenty of time to let his Receivers break open, and Goff has bounced back from his horrific primetime peformance against the Houston Texans.

Playing at home has been very productive for the Quarter Back and Jared Goff has been able to produce cleaner performances here and he should be able to lead the Lions up and down the field.

With the spread where it is, the backdoor cover will certainly be open for the Chicago Bears.

However, the feeling is that the Lions will have heard plenty about their losing run on Thanksgiving Day and they will be motivated to show the nation how far they have come in the last couple of years. The Bears have a solid recent record in this Stadium on Thanksgiving Day, and they have been competitive against the other two top NFC North teams, but the Bears were blown out in their last road game against Arizona and they may find this Detroit Offensive unit too much to handle in the first of three games on Turkey Day.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When the schedule makers set this game for Thanksgiving Day, the hope would have been that it would be one between two contenders in the NFC East. Instead, the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) and New York Giants (2-9) have vastly underachieved and the latter are perhaps looking to finish the season with the Number 1 Draft Pick.

After deciding to bench Daniel Jones at Quarter Back, who was then later released, the decision to go with the third string QB Tommy DeVito rather than Drew Lock, who has been the backup to Jones all season, has made it pretty clear what the ownership may want. Some of the Giants players have voiced their frustration about the direction being taken by the team, while Head Coach Brian Daboll will do well to retain his job going into 2025.

Six losses in a row have sunk the Giants and there will be some real questions being asked as to why they spent so much money on extending Daniel Jones' contract and allowing Saquon Barkley to leave. They were miserable in Week 12 when being blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and this is a short week to get things right.

At least one positive is that New York are facing a Dallas Cowboys team that has also been in the midst of a miserable run, albeit one that was snapped with the win over the Washington Commanders last time out. Prior to that, the Cowboys had lost five in a row and they will need another big effort from the Special Teams unit to make up for what has been a stagnant Offense without Dak Prescott behind Center.

Cooper Rush has struggled and the Offensive Line has been banged up, so the Cowboys have not been able to rely on a consistent running game to help out. There is an opportunity to have more success on the ground against this New York Defensive Line, especially if players begin to dial it in, but it looks like being another inconsistent night in the office on this side of the ball.

CeeDee Lamb is playing through an injury, while Cooper Rush will receive a significant boost if Jake Ferguson is back on Thanksgiving Day. Brandin Cooks could also be back, which should give the backup Quarter Back an opportunity to at least make some positive plays against this Giants Secondary.

Much like the Cowboys, the New York Giants are going to want to lean on their Offensive Line to open up running lanes for Tyrone Tracy. This should be a good match up for Tracy, although he might not have the amount of carries you would expect after another Fumble, and Tommy DeVito is going to be asked to use his legs to just move away from the Dallas pass rush pressure and keep the Giants in front of the chains.

Teams have been able to run the ball effectively against the Dallas Defensive Line so it looks the clear game plan to use for the Giants, which should in turn give DeVito a bit more time to throw the ball from third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back did not have his best game last week in the blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but this may be an 'easier' spot for DeVito, even if Trevon Diggs is back for the Cowboys.

It looks a tough game to call with both the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys significantly underperforming this season and with backup Quarter Backs leading the teams out. The Cowboys have dominated this Divisional rival of late with seven straight wins in the series, but Cooper Rush is hard to trust to cover as a favourite of more than a Field Goal.

At the same time, the Giants organisation is making it pretty clear that their focus has become tanking the season and you do have to wonder how players react to that. They did not show up in Week 12, but this is a big national televised spot and you have to believe the Giants can run the ball well enough to keep this competitive, even if they are eventually beaten.

There has to be a concern that this could get very ugly, very quickly for the New York Giants and that their opening couple of drives are going to be very important. If they can at least show some pride, the Giants should be able to make enough plays against Cooper Rush to keep this one close on the scoreboard and make use of the points that are being given to them.

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Barring a huge collapse from the Buffalo Bills, the hope of winning the AFC East is already over for the Miami Dolphins (5-6). However, three wins in a row have just pulled this team back into the mix for a Wild Card spot in the Playoffs and that has to be the target for Miami the rest of the way, especially if they can keep their key players healthy.

Wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots have built momentum, but none of those teams are above 0.500 for the season as we move into Week 13 of the regular season.

With that in mind, the Dolphins have to know there is a significant challenge coming up for them when travelling to face the Green Bay Packers (8-3) who are very much on course to return to the post-season. There is still a hope that the Packers can move past either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings or both in the NFC North, and Green Bay are certainly going to be feeling pretty good about where they are at right now after beating the San Francisco 49ers.

There has been a real balance to the way they have been performing Offensively with Josh Jacobs running the ball effectively and Jordan Love continuing to show his development and confidence at Quarter Back. It was the Jacobs power-running that helped the Packers crush the 49ers in Week 12 and also alleviated any pressure that Jordan Love has been feeling, which has led to some big mistakes in the passing game.

Those mistakes have not dented Love's confidence, but playing a clean game against the 49ers will just serve as a reminder that Green Bay can go extremely far if they are able to avoid turnovers.

Green Bay can lean on the Offensive Line in this final game on Thanksgiving Day and they should be able to have some success behind Josh Jacobs, even if the Dolphins have been playing the run better during this winning run than they have for much of the season. Some of that may have been down to the opponents faced though and the threat of the Jordan Love arm should mean the Dolphins have to be aware of the plays being called, which should also also give Jacobs a chance to continue to run hard behind the O-Line.

It should open up the passing lanes for Jordan Love who had an efficient game on Sunday, rather than one where he was putting up huge numbers. Ultimately it is about winning Football games and Love can back up that performance against this Miami Secondary.

The Packers Offensive Line has given Jordan Love time in the pocket, which is only aided by being able to run the ball and playing from third and manageable spots, while a cold, snowy evening in Green Bay gives the team another edge.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are downplaying the impact of the likely conditions, but there is no doubting that Miami have something to prove. This Quarter Back and this team have not been as effective in the cold, and Miami have also struggled when playing against stronger teams in the NFL so the challenge in Week 13 is pretty clear.

The Dolphins would love to find a way to establish the run and ease the burden on Tagovailoa at Quarter Back, but they have not run the ball as they would have liked during their three game winning run. In recent history, the Packers Defensive Line have had issues stopping the run, but they have been playing well enough to believe they can contain the Miami rush on Thanksgiving Day and force Tua Tagovailoa to beat them through the air.

Miami do have very strong Receiving options for their Quarter Back to target, but this is a Packers Secondary that have looked very solid all season. Playing out of third and long spots will mean Tagovailoa could be under some pressure from the Packers pass rush, while he will will also have to be aware of the potential for turnovers when throwing against some of these Defensive Backs.

With the expected conditions, running the ball is likely going to be very important and this is where the Green Bay Packers look to have an edge. The Dolphins still have so much to prove when it comes to playing in the cold and when facing stronger teams and that is where the edge has to be given to Green Bay who can find the big plays to pull clear.

Tua Tagovailoa has given the Dolphins a spark since his latest return from a concussion, but it will be tough to extend the three game winning run. He will make some big plays for Miami, but the cold and snow may just highlight the issues that the Dolphins Offensive Line have been having and Green Bay can just ensure they keep the pressure on the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North with a solid win in the nightcap on Thanksgiving Day.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: A new tradition has begun in the NFL with a Black Friday offering and this season it is battle between the top and bottom of the AFC West.

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) and it is no surprise that they have been set as a heavy favourite. That line is likely going to get wider and wider as we approach kick off with this being the sole NFL offering on Friday, and that can be concerning when you think the Kansas City Chiefs have rarely won games easily this season.

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are well aware that blowouts in the regular season mean nothing when it comes to the post-season and so they have only done what is needed to keep the wins ticking over. Earning the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is important, but not going to be the be all and end all for the Kansas City Chiefs who are simply using this time to make sure they are ready to fight for another Super Bowl ring.

That was perhaps the reason for the tougher than expected road win at the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, but the Chiefs are back home and can push forward against this struggling Raiders team.

There will be a real battle at the Line of Scrimmage where the Raiders have at least played the run pretty well in recent games. However, the Chiefs Offensive Line have prided themselves on being able to open some big running lanes and the threat of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back may mean the Raiders cannot focus on clamping down on the run as they would usually do.

For all of those successes up front, the Secondary has not been able to step up and stop teams from extending drives and we have to expect more of the same on Friday. It is a short week for both teams, but Mahomes performed really well in the win over the Panthers and he can pick up from where he left off against this Raiders team that may be thinking about the end of the season already.

Well the players might be, but Head Coach Antonio Pierce has made it clear that he has no interest in 'tanking' with the Raiders amongst the 'leading' teams for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

Like a number of teams struggling, the Raiders have not gotten enough consistency from the Quarter Back position and they would love to be able to take one of the top players coming out of College Football in that position. Gardner Minshew is not going to be ready to go this week, but Aidan O'Connell is back having not appeared in Week 12 and he will get the start ahead of Desmond Ridder.

No matter who was going to get the call, this was always going to be a significant test for the Quarter Back with the Raiders unlikely to be able to establish the run. That means Aidan O'Connell is going to have to perform under some duress, especially considering the Offensive Line struggles in pass protection, and his recovery from a broken thumb will be tested.

After a strong start, the Kansas City Secondary have had some issues when teams have chosen to throw against them in recent games and the Raiders may have some success too. Slowing down Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers will not be easy, but the Chiefs may just get O'Connell thinking at times and that is where they may extract a mistake or two from the Quarter Back.

This is the second Divisional game between these two in a little over a month and the Kansas City Chiefs were 7 point winners on the road to continue their recent dominance of the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Chiefs should not have forgotten being embarrassed at home on Christmas Day last year when set as an 11 point favourite against the Raiders, which should keep the home team focused on Black Friday. Prior to that, the Chiefs had beat Las Vegas pretty convincingly twice in a row and the feeling is that they will be able to secure a solid win at home, while giving the Raiders plenty to think about it when it comes to the direction this franchise is heading.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2023 (November 23-27)

Week 10 was a very poor one for the NFL Picks, but the bounce back in Week 11 is important and keeps things ticking along this season.

As we approach Thanksgiving Day in the United States, attention will have turned to the NFL PlayOffs and there were more big injuries in Week 11 that has changed the outlook for teams.

One of those is the Cincinnati Bengals- many believed the Bengals could win the Super Bowl, but it has been a tough season with Joe Burrow struggling with injury early on. And just when the momentum looked to be finally building behind the Bengals, Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury last Thursday, which has left the Cincinnati Bengals looking well short in the AFC.

It doesn't help that they are the only team in the AFC North that doesn't hold a winning record and Jake Browning is extremely inexperienced at Quarter Back as he takes over from Burrow. It feels like a long shot for the Bengals to even make the PlayOffs right now, especially with six of the remaining seven teams on the schedule all holding a winning record.

Another year is also over for the New York Jets for all intents and purposes after a blowout loss at the Buffalo Bills.

Last week the decision to hold onto Zach Wilson as the starting Quarter Back, despite the Jets making it clear they did not feel he was ready in the off-season, was criticised. And it feels like the Jets have had enough too with Wilson pulled out in the Third Quarter of the blowout loss in Buffalo and now being relegated to third string Quarter Back as the Jets begin to think about getting Aaron Rodgers healthy and trying to go again in 2024.

The Seattle Seahawks will be concerned about Geno Smith at Quarter Back and will know that their season is likely resting on the outcome of any scans he has this week. Drew Lock looks way below the standards needed and the Seahawks face the San Francisco 49ers twice in the next three weeks when their chances of winning the NFC West will be decided.

If Smith is ruled out, the Seahawks may struggle to even make the Wild Card places, but otherwise they should be able to win enough games to earn one of those places.

Three more wins is expected to be enough to make the PlayOffs in the NFC, but Seattle may struggle to even do that if Lock is asked to spend considerable time at Quarter Back.

This will change on a week to week basis, but a very early look at how the PlayOffs could stand did bring up some surprises.

Looking ahead, I can see the NFC South being won by a team with a losing record, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may just sneak out the Division and host a Wild Card Game in January.

The Dallas Cowboys could be the team heading into that game with all of the pressure on the road team who should be able to secure as many as 12 wins, although still finishing behind the Philadelphia Eagles.

There is still a chance that the Detroit Lions could finish with the joint-best record in the NFC along with the aforementioned Eagles with a much more comfortable looking schedule of the two teams. Winning the Number 1 Seed could actually be determined by a big Week 17 game when the Lions visit the Cowboys, but we have seen how quickly an outlook can change for a team depending on injuries.

I have said for a while that the top teams, injury withstanding, in the NFC look pretty easy to pick out. The NFC South is competitive, but you could pick out at least five of the seven teams to make the post-season with some confidence.

My early look had a few more surprises in the AFC side of the PlayOffs- the Buffalo Bills miss out if the season plays out as predicted, while the Miami Dolphins do go on and win the AFC East.

Three of the AFC North teams find a way into the post-season, including the Cleveland Browns without Deshaun Watson, while the Houston Texans win the AFC South. CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level and the Texans have yet to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could be a Division decider, although I also expect the Jaguars to make the post-season.

Guessing the post-season picture ahead of Week 12 is always going to be hazardous, but there does feel like some surprises and upsets could be seen between now and the end of Week 18 and that is what makes it exciting for fans.

After another week of action, the top five in my standings are as follows:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): wins over two of the top AFC teams and the Dallas Cowboys and with a big game coming up against the Buffalo Bills keeps the Eagles at top spot.

2) Detroit Lions (8-2): they did not produce their best in Week 11, but the Lions won and look healthy.

3) San Francisco 49ers (7-3): a strong couple of wins have gotten San Francisco back on track and their main rivals in the NFC West might have lost their starting Quarter Back.

4) Baltimore Ravens (8-3): it is hard to know where the Ravens are considering they ended up crushing a Cincinnati team that played the second half without Joe Burrow, but Baltimore deserve credit for bouncing back in a big win.

5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3): there is no doubt that it feels harsh dropping Kansas City several places after a loss to the Eagles, but they looked out of sync Offensively. The Chiefs will need to find their identity on this side of the ball if they are going to repeat as Champions, while finishing with the Number 1 Seed has to be the goal to try and make life that much easier.

There are some quality teams that are just outside of these places, but they will need to get through some tough challenges to enter the top five places.

The Dolphins need to beat a 'good' team, while the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans also have something to prove.

Dallas look strong, but again need to prove themselves in a big game, while the likes of Cleveland and Seattle could be down starting Quarter Backs and that does/will hold them back.

The NFL Week 12 schedule is split over four days with games to be played on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Picks will be placed in this thread over the next couple of days with the momentum from Week 11 something we can look to build upon.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has been seven years since the Detroit Lions (8-2) last won a game on Thanksgiving Day, but they continue to open up the day of NFL Football.

In previous years, some have questioned whether the Lions deserve to hold onto a Thanksgiving Day Game, but that is not going to be the case in 2023 with the team only trailing the Philadelphia Eagles for the most wins in the NFC. They do have a healthy lead at the top of the NFC North, but the Lions will want to maintain some of their current momentum knowing that four of the next six games are going to be played on the road.

The Lions needed some late magic to overcome the Chicago Bears in Week 11 and there is a feeling that Detroit were perhaps looking past the team in the basement of their Division. Head Coach Dan Campbell and many of the players will know this game on Thursday gives them a big opportunity to impress a national audience and the Lions might have already been mentally checked in for this important outing.

It shows plenty of character that the Lions were still able to fight back and win that game in Week 11 and they are a similar priced favourite when Detroit host the Green Bay Packers (4-6) who have kept their slim hopes of earning a PlayOff spot alive after a win of their own on Sunday.

That came at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, and now Green Bay have to show they can take the show on the road having lost four in a row outside of Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love had a decent game against the Chargers, but this is expected to be much more challenging for the Quarter Back who threw 2 Interceptions in a home loss to the Detroit Lions earlier this season. The pressure may be on Love's shoulders with Aaron Jones picking up another injury on Sunday that is likely going to keep the Running Back from taking part.

The Quarter Back did have 246 passing yards and 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Touchdown run to his name in the home defeat to the Lions, but Jordan Love will know he needs to be much better if he is going to help his team pick up the upset.

He would be more comfortable with Aaron Jones behind him in the backfield, but either way it will be a big challenge for the Packers Offensive Line to establish the run. While the game is competitive, the feeling is that Green Bay will continue to pound the rock and look to shorten the game, while also keeping their Quarter Back in manageable down and distance.

However, it is not going to be an easy day for Jordan Love if he has to rely on his arm- while he has been playing a little better of late, Love will be under plenty of duress from the Detroit pass rush, while the Lions Secondary has been playing the pass effectively and may be able to tempt Jordan Love into a mistake or two, much as they did in the road win.

The game plan on the other side of the ball should be pretty simple for the Detroit Lions who have gotten a significant punch from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. It was Montgomery who pounded the Packers into oblivion earlier this season and he had a solid return game against the Chicago Bears in Week 11, while Gibbs has the ability to break out a big play every time he touches the ball.

With the Packers Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, Detroit should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and they can keep the Offensive unit in very strong field position. Jared Goff had 210 passing yards in the road win over the Packers and he may not be asked to do much in this one aside from making sure the team is lined up and able to set up those big run plays.

Jared Goff is facing a Green Bay Secondary that has not given up a lot of passing yards in recent games, but that is also down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball very well against them. It also should be noted the level of Quarter Back and overall Offensive units they have played in their last few games and Detroit are going to be significantly more challenging than the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.

The Lions have a lot more balance than those teams and that is going to create fits for the Green Bay Packers as Detroit chase a first win on Thanksgiving since 2016.

They failed to cover as a home favourite on Sunday, but we had the Chicago Bears with the points that day and the feeling is that the Lions will be a lot more focused from the off against the Green Bay Packers.

Jordan Love may have an opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the expectation is that the Lions can clamp down on the run and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to make the mistakes that gives the home team extra possessions. With the Offensive unit particularly effective at home, the Lions should be able to put up enough points to clear this spread and move right alongside the Philadelphia Eagles with nine wins, the joint-most in the NFL this season.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The rumours are gathering pace that this could be the last game that Ron Rivera is the Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-7). Losing twice to the New York Giants is simply not going to make management change their mind, while Rivera has to know the writing is on the wall after the Commanders traded away two key pass rushers and knowing that the Head Coach was not selected by the current ownership team.

If it wasn't for the short week with the Commanders set to play on Thanksgiving Day, the feeling is that Ron Rivera might have been fired this week. Instead, he is given one last chance to be given an opportunity to at least play out the season, while a loss for Washington may mean Ron Rivera has plenty of time to spend with his family on Thanksgiving weekend and beyond.

They are huge underdogs when visiting the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) who are still chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Playing a Divisional rival does make things tougher for any team, but the Cowboys have been crushing 'weak' opposition all season- they have beaten the Giants (twice), Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Rams and Panthers this season and only one of those wins has been by less than a 20 point margin.

As written above, Dallas have been crushing weak opponents and this is another for them on Thanksgiving.

Playing on this day has not usually resulted in big wins for the Cowboys, and they have lost plenty of Thanksgiving Day games in recent years, but this Washington Commanders team looks tailor made for a Dallas team that has played four home games this season and won by margins of 20, 35, 23 and 32 points.

They are being asked to cover a big spread, but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys Offensive unit should be able to score a lot of points in this one after seeing Tommy DeVito carve up the Commanders Secondary in Week 11 (that is Tommy DeVito the New York Giants Quarter Back, although Tommy DeVito, the infamous Goodfellas film character would have likely done the same).

Montez Sweat and Chase Young are gone so it is expected that Dak Prescott will have a relatively clean pocket to make his plays down the field, while the Cowboys are also likely going to be able to rip off some big gains on the ground. It should be a relatively 'easy' day in the office for Prescott operating from third and manageable whenever Dallas have the ball, while the play-action should see him have opportunities to make some big throws down the field and the Cowboys have every chance of getting close to the 40 point mark they are averaging at home.

The Dallas Defensive unit will certainly believe they can contribute and they have played much better at home than on the road.

In Week 11, the Cowboys gave Bryce Young all he could handle and they are likely going to put immense pressure on second year Quarter Back Sam Howell in this one.

Sam Howell is not helped playing behind a revolving door of an Offensive Line and continues to be hit hard whenever he takes a snap and looks to pass the ball. The key for the Commanders will be to try and keep this game competitive and continue to feed Bijan Robinson has much as they can, either running the ball directly or as a pass-catching Running Back coming out of the backfield.

Getting the ball into Robinson's hands as quickly as possible might see the Commanders stay in front of the chains, but any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Cowboys pass rush is going to be wreaking havoc in the backfield. Sam Howell may not have the worst passing numbers and there are some quality Receivers who can step up for him, but it is tough to continue to make plays with defenders hanging onto you, while the Cowboys Secondary are also playing at a pretty good level right now.

The pass rush has certainly made it easier for the Secondary and the Cowboys may be able to force a couple of turnovers that helps them pull away and cover what is a very big line for any NFL game, let alone a Divisional game.

Dallas are 14-6 against the spread as a home favourite under Mike McCarthy, while you have to question how much the Commanders team have left to give a Head Coach that is a lame duck to say the least.

However, you have to respect the fact that the Commanders could easily secure a backdoor cover in this game with the spread as big as it is. They are also 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog this season and have a couple of 3 point losses at Philadelphia and Seattle.

Divisional games usually are plenty motivating on their own, regardless of a season situation, but the Cowboys might be able to come out and make a big statement against a team that is perhaps lacking some direction. If the Commanders do feel that their Head Coach could be out of the door on Friday, they might check out of this one and the Dallas Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays that helps the home team secure a big victory.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Three losses in a row would worry some teams, but others will go out and make a big trade to bring a player like Chase Young. This comes twelve months after the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) traded for Christian McCaffrey and the team are firmly back on track after winning back to back games.

Over the next three weeks, the 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) twice and the NFC West Division race will look much clearer by the end of those.

Bringing in Chase Young is clearly going to have a positive impact on the 49ers team, but the reality is that their three game losing run was largely down to injuries that the team had been dealing with. They went into a Bye, got healthier, and San Francisco have looked like a team that could win the Super Bowl once again.

There would also have been very little panic in the San Francisco locker room considering the team have reached the Super Bowl in 2019 and the NFC Championship Game in 2021 and 2022. That will be the minimum aim for Kyle Shanahan and his team again, while the 49ers may feel they deserve to have much better health going into January after their NFC Championship Game defeat in January 2023.

The 49ers look healthier than the Seattle Seahawks who could be without Geno Smith at Quarter Back and Kenneth Walker III at Running Back in a short week. Pete Carroll is still talking up the chances of Smith playing this game, but it feels like a long shot when you think of the injury he picked up on Sunday, one that meant he missed much of the second half before returning for one last drive as Smith tried to guide the Seahawks to an important win.

A missed Field Goal meant it was not worth the effort and Geno Smith is going to banged up at the very least.

Playing this pass rush is far from ideal for the Quarter Back and even if Smith starts, it has to be considered short odds that he will not be able to finish.

Drew Lock playing against this Defensive unit could be a bloodbath.

The Seahawks may look to run the ball and see if that can ease the expected pressure all around Geno Smith, but the Offensive Line have not been opening big holes of late and the 49ers may not respect the Quarter Back's ability to throw the ball at his usual level. That could see them load the line of scrimmage and force Seattle to try and keep the chains moving through the air.

Again, if Geno Smith was healthy, he might have a chance, but either Smith at less than 100% or Drew Lock throwing feels like a recipe for disaster.

If this game was played earlier in the season, some may have felt that the Seahawks Defensive unit could at least keep them in the contest, but that has looked less likely in recent games. There was always a feeling that the Seahawks were playing at an unsustainable level and San Francisco have the players that can expose the holes at all levels.

Christian McCaffrey and the Offensive Line should have a big day and they should be able to move the ball very efficiently on the ground. In the last three games, the Seattle Defensive Line have allowed teams to move the ball at 5.5 yards per carry so being able to clamp down on McCaffrey looks to be wishful thinking, while the Running Back is also expected to be a threat coming out of the backfield and making some plays in the passing game too.

Things are also looking up for Brock Purdy, even if there is still some feeling that he is a product of the Kyle Shanahan system. The Quarter Back won't care what people think and Purdy had a very good outing in Week 11 and the expectation is that he can pick up from where he left off.

Recent games has seen the Seattle pass rush lose some of its effectiveness and it will be tough to get to a Quarter Back who is likely going to be operating in front of the chains and who is willing to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.

Brock Purdy should also be able to exploit play-action to hit the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle down the field and the expectation is that the 49ers can score enough points to clear this spread.

It would have been perfect if the line had dipped below a key number 7, but that looks unlikely now even if Geno Smith is cleared to suit up.

Any other decision and it is expected to perhaps rival the line the Cowboys are being asked to cover earlier in the day and so it might be worth locking in.

Seattle did have a decent record against San Francisco with five wins in six games played between November 2019 and December 2021, but the 49ers have won three in a row since then. All of those wins have been by at least eight point margins and there is every chance that San Francisco can extend that run in the late Thanksgiving Day game

You do have to respect the fact that the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but Geno Smith's health is a massive concern for this one and the 49ers can pull away.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: When Amazon decided to offer the NFL.a huge amount of money so they could have the chance to broadcast a 'Black Friday' game, they had to be pretty happy with the game that was offered to them.

Both the broadcaster and NFL schedule makers would have anticipated this to be a leading AFC East Divisional clash, but instead of Aaron Rodgers, they will have Tim Boyle leading the New York Jets (4-6).

And instead of being a clash between two of the leading AFC East teams, Amazon will be featuring a Jets team that is barely clinging on to relevancy this season after losing three games in a row. Things had to change and the Zach Wilson era in New York looks to be officially over with the former First Round Draft Pick now the Number 3 Quarter Back on the depth chart behind Boyle and a recently signed Trevor Siemian.

Jets fans will be critical of the management for allowing this tough Defensive unit to be wasted by horrible play from the Quarter Back and the decision to not bring in another veteran after Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury looks to have backfired badly. Perhaps Tim Boyle is the answer, but his history in the NFL suggests not and he is going to have a tough day against the Miami Dolphins (7-3).

It was not the best performance from the Dolphins out of their Bye Week, but they did beat the Las Vegas Raiders and errors might have been down to the fact they were focusing on this Friday game. The Offensive unit made the mistakes, but Jalen Ramsey and the Defensive players more than did their part to beat the Raiders and are expected to shut down whatever kind of Offense the Jets try running with Boyle at Quarter Back.

The expectation will be that Tim Boyle has to lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook and try to establish the run, but that will not be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. Instead, much like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle may need to get the ball quickly into the hands of Hall out in space and hope the Running Back can pick up some big yards after the catch and make that some form of running game for the team.

Asking Tim Boyle to throw against this healthier Miami Secondary seems too much, especially with the Jets Offensive Line banged up. It should give the Dolphins a chance to pin back their ears and really get after Boyle whenever the Jets are in obvious passing situations and any mistake from the Quarter Back is likely going to be punished in more New York turnovers.

Neutrals tuning in should get plenty more consistency out of the Miami Offensive unit, although it will be a test for Tua Tagovailoa considering this is where the strength of the Jets lies. Some may see the 32 points next to Buffalo's name and think the Defensive unit are not up to much, but it is asking too much for any Defense to be out on the field over and over and trying to protect short fields.

The Dolphins might be able to have some joy pushing the ball on the ground, but Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game needs to be cleaner than it was in Week 11. They are still putting up good numbers and the Offensive Line is giving their Quarter Back some time, but Tua will know that this New York Secondary is not one to take too many risks against as he looks to bring Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill into the action.

Play-action and moving pieces on the Offensive side of the ball can make life tough for a Defensive unit to slow down, and Miami are expected to have enough success on this side of the ball to be in a position to cover this spread.

Ultimately, the feeling is that Tim Boyle will make similar mistakes to Zach Wilson and end up putting the Jets Defensive unit in a bind.

It becomes a vicious circle with Boyle then likely to be asked to make more throws to try and keep the Jets in the game, which will lead to more mistakes and the Miami Dolphins can win and cover as long as they are not as generous with their own errors as they were in the victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

A backdoor cover could be in play, but another big Defensive stand from the Dolphins can see them get over the line with a big road win against this Divisional rival.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The loss to the Cleveland Browns and a backup Quarter Back meant big changes this past week. Matt Canada has long been criticised as Offensive Co-Ordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and was fired after the 13-10 loss to the Browns, as Mike Tomlin looks to find an answer to what has been a season-long problem.

Despite being Offensively challenged, the Steelers may still feel they are strong enough to earn a spot in the AFC Wild Card, although chasing down the Baltimore Ravens cannot be ruled out.

Back to back road games is not ideal for any team in the NFL and it is even tougher when you have to face Divisional rivals in both. That is the test for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), a team who have had a bit of extra time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the season.

They were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens in that game, but worse for the Bengals is the loss of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Not many have great expectations for Cincinnati with Jake Browning's inexperience taking over for Burrow, a Quarter Back who has won a National Championship at College level and played in the Super Bowl in the pros.

Unsurprisingly there are plenty of confident statements being made about Browning's preparation for his first start in the NFL, but this is a good Steelers Defensive unit in front of the young Quarter Back. The Bengals are also going to be without Tee Higgins this week, while Ja'Marr Chase is not at full health and that makes it difficult to believe in the Bengals.

Joe Mixon is going to be important for the Bengals, but running the ball against the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be more difficult than usual if they do not respect the ability of Jake Browning behind Center. A few throws may open things up on the ground, but even at full health, the Bengals may not have been able to grind the ball on the ground.

This all means it will be up to Browning to show that he is capable of leading the team in place of Joe Burrow. Any doubt in his play is going to mean Jake Browning is dealing with the Pittsburgh pass rush behind shaky Bengals Offensive Line play, while the injury-hit Steelers Secondary can make enough plays to stall drives.

A big question will be on the other side of the ball and trying to work out if the firing of Matt Canada will spark the Steelers.

The game plan should be pretty easy for the Steelers- with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, they will look to establish the run against the Bengals Defensive Line which has allowed recent opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. These two players have been combining for some big yards on the ground in recent games, although the Steelers fans are hoping to see better from Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.

Kenny Pickett should be well protected, while the expected ground gains should mean play-action can be employed early as the Steelers look to attack this Cincinnati Secondary. George Pickens may not be available, but the Pittsburgh Steelers may choose to try and expose some of the Defensive holes that Cincinnati have displayed, while Pickett can also try and get the ball to Warren in space and hope the Running Back can make some big yards after the catch.

There should be a balance to the Steelers Offensive play compared to what we have seen in recent weeks as the players look to show that it was Matt Canada's calls, rather than their own execution of those plays, that have held them back.

Pittsburgh won here last year, in Overtime, and they do have a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Week 11 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Defensive unit may make one or two plays against the inexperienced Quarter Back that helps set up the Steelers with strong opportunities to score points in short field situations.

Backing the Steelers as a road favourite does not feel that good, but the uncertainty around the Cincinnati Bengals does make Pittsburgh the play.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: A third loss in the 2023 season is not going to derail the plans of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), but Head Coach Andy Reid and his Staff will know they have things to work on. They won the Super Bowl last season thanks to a very strong Offensive unit, but Patrick Mahomes has not been getting the same level of support from those around him and that proved costly in the home defeat on Monday Night Football to the Philadelphia Eagles.

This not the time for panic with a number of miscues that the Chiefs made easy to turn around, but they will want to put things right pretty quickly. They have been very strong Defensively and it is that side of the ball that will feel largely responsible for the eight wins produced, so it won't take a lot to really get the Kansas City Chiefs motoring again.

They are on a short week having played on Monday and with this Divisional game set for Sunday, while the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) have looked better under interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce since firing Josh McDaniels. Both home games played under Pierce have resulted in wins, while Aidan O'Connell was picked off in the End Zone in the 7 point loss to the Miami Dolphins last week.

However, Antonio Pierce will know his team will need to be a lot stronger than they were in that loss to Miami- the scoreboard might not show it, but the Dolphins dominated that day and it was only a number of turnovers that prevented Miami from winning by a margin much more in line with the expectations of the oddsmakers.

This Divisional game poses a significant challenge for the Raiders Offensively and they do not match up that well with the Kansas City Chiefs. You have to imagine they are going to try and feed Josh Jacobs as much as possible and the Running Back may pick up some yards on the ground, but Las Vegas cannot afford to fall a couple of scores behind and then need their inexperienced Quarter Back to try and make plays against this tough Chiefs Secondary.

A fierce pass rush makes Kansas City very tough to throw against and Aidan O'Connell may have a banged up Davante Adams in the line up too. It will mean needing to get others going, but it should be pointed out that the Raiders have scored just 29 points in their last couple of games against Defenses playing to a similar level to where the Kansas City Chiefs are.

Las Vegas will be going into their Bye Week after this game so can leave it all on the field, but the feeling is that they are going to need another big turnover day to keep this one competitive.

The Dolphins made mistakes and there is a cleaning up process taking place at Kansas City, but the Chiefs will believe they have the capabilities of moving the ball up and down the field. They do need a Receiver or two to step up alongside Travis Kelce and give Patrick Mahomes a consistent player to throw to, but that should be 'easier' to manage with Isiah Pacheco likely going to pick up from where he left off against the Eagles.

Andy Reid is not someone who loves to run the ball over and over, but Pacheco should be able to pick up some big gains on the ground and keep the Kansas City Chiefs in front of the chains. That should be key in helping Patrick Mahomes earn a little more time behind the Offensive Line, especially with the Quarter Back comfortable being able to move around and allow Receiving routes to develop down the field.

He has not been at his best of late, but Mahomes has had his numbers dip because of the inconsistent play of his Receivers. That does raise some doubts about the Chiefs covering a spread like this one, but the feeling is that the defeat on Monday Night Football focuses minds and a much better game is played all around, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

Losing has not been a familiar feeling for the Chiefs in recent years and over the last two seasons they are 4-1 against the spread when playing after a defeat. They are also 2-1 against the spread against AFC West rivals and the question mark about how many points the Raiders can put on the scoreboard certainly gives the road team enough of an edge to be backed in this one.

Hopefully the Receivers have removed the teflon from the gloves this week as they will need much stronger hands to ensure the backdoor cover is not possible for the home team.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The AFC looks a loaded and deep Conference in 2023 and earning a Wild Card spot is going to be a challenge. The feeling is that ten wins will likely be needed to do that and that means the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) are beginning to feel the pressure after consecutive losses.

They earn a primetime spot in Week 12 of the 2023 season and Head Coach Brandon Staley is going to be hoping for a big reaction from his players after showing his frustration to the gathered reporters following the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

It feels like it gets much tougher for the Chargers in Week 12 as they prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens (8-3) who will be hoping this game offers them a chance to extend their lead in the AFC North before entering their Bye Week.

A big win over the Cinncinati Bengals on Thursday Night Football does mean the Ravens have had a few extra days of preparation time for this road game. That will help as the Offensive unit looks to find a way to replace Mark Andrews after the Tight End picked up a season ending injury in that win.

It takes away a big target from Lamar Jackson, who is also going to be looking forward to the Bye Week so he can rest up. The Quarter Back is not going to be sitting out this week and a late Bye can be beneficial with many believing the Ravens to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Lamar Jackson helps the Ravens run game with the threat he poses and big gains could be ripped off by Baltimore against this banged up Chargers Defensive Line which is allowing recent teams to pick up yards at 4.6 per carry. If they are not able to slop down Jackson, Gus Edwards and Keaton Michell, it is going to be a very long day for the Los Angeles Chargers on this side of the ball.

Slowing down the Ravens is going to be tough and that should mean Lamar Jackson is able to make a few big plays down the field, even without Andrews in the line up.

Isaiah Likely has flashed potential and will be getting a lot more targets, while it will be music to the ears of Lamar Jackson that the Chargers will be without Joey Bosa. Playing out of third and manageable should also mean Jackson has that touch more time to hit his Receivers against this Los Angeles Secondary which has allowed plenty of yards through the air.

An expectation of seeing a balanced Offensive unit makes the Ravens dangerous, while their Defense continues to play hard through the injuries.

While there have been some holes on the Baltimore Defensive Line that has seen teams pick up some big gains on the ground, the Los Angeles Offensive Line have been inconsistent. Recent games have been stronger as they look to get Austin Ekeler going as a runner, rather than a pass-catching Running Back, and it is key for the Chargers to have success establishing the run.

Moving the ball through Justin Herbert's arm and the banged up Receiving corps he is throwing too will be very difficult considering the level the Ravens Secondary have been operating at. Marlon Humphrey could be back for the Ravens with the extra time he has had between Week 11 and Week 12, while the Chargers have been inconsistent throwing the ball as the likes of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have moved onto the Injured Reserve, while Keenan Allen is fighting through the pain.

An inability to establish the run or being forced into obvious passing situations will mean Justin Herbert has to face a powerful Baltimore pass rush and it looks like a game that the Ravens should be able to dictate on both sides of the ball.

While the Ravens have not exactly been great road favourites to back, it should be noted that the Los Angeles Chargers have a losing record against the spread as the home underdog with Brandon Staley at the helm. There is a growing feeling that Staley is about to be fired as the Head Coach of the Chargers too and that can see players just drop their heads, while it is far from ideal to be distracted before facing this strong looking Baltimore team.

Covering on the road will not be easy, but Baltimore can be asked to lay the points over Thanksgiving Weekend where the road favourites have been good through Thursday and Friday.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2021 (November 25-29)

The season is moving at a rapid rate and hitting Thanksgiving Day is usually a strong turning point towards the home stretch towards the PlayOffs.

Week 12 is also one in which I am looking to bounce back after three rotten weeks of NFL Picks, but I will add to this thread before the Sunday games.

For now you can read my thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day games to be played.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: Despite some rumours of recent years, the Detroit Lions (0-9-1) are still one of the two teams that have a permanent place playing on Thanksgiving Day and they will once again get the day underway with a game at home. There have been suggestions the NFL may remove the honour that has been given to the Lions and another season in which they are struggling massively does not really do much for those who want to stick with tradition.

The Lions are winless in 2021, but at least they won't be the first team to finish a regular season with a 0-17 record having earned a tie at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They will be hosting a Divisional rival in Week 12 of the 2021 season with the Chicago Bears (3-7) once again being given the call to head into Mo-Town to take on the Detroit Lions. Two seasons ago, the Bears narrowly won here thanks to a late Touchdown to take the lead and they are favoured to win here despite some difficulties in the preparation.

Injuries are not helping the Bears who have lost Justin Fields at Quarter Back and will also be missing Khalil Mack on the Defensive side of the ball. Even without Mack, the Bears Defensive unit did as much as they could against the Baltimore Ravens, but the Offense struggled yet again and it sounds like Head Coach Matt Nagy will be fired before completing the season.

With those rumours rampant enough that the Head Coach was asked about them, I do wonder if the Bears will be focused even with this game being played on National television on a Holiday. Failing to be ready to compete is going to end with another defeat for the Bears and the season will not be able to end quickly enough, but they do match up well with the Detroit Lions.

Having a veteran at backup Quarter Back will be a big help for the Chicago Bears and Andy Dalton should be able to have a strong outing, even if Allen Robinson is not able to go. The Chicago Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection, but the Lions have generated very little pressure up front in recent games and that should mean Andy Dalton has all of the time he needs to throw against this Secondary.

The Quarter Back should be aided by David Montgomery who scored two Touchdowns against the Detroit Lions earlier this season and who scored the winning Touchdown when these teams met on Thanksgiving Day in 2019. Chicago's Offensive Line may have had some issues in pass protection, but they have opened up some decent running lanes and that should give David Montgomery every chance to rip off some big gains against this struggling Detroit Defensive Line.

Third and manageable spots can only bode well for Andy Dalton and I do think the Bears will have every chance of moving the chains and especially if they know the Head Coach is going to be fired whether they win or lose. That should provide enough motivation for the Bears, rather than a situation where the players want to make sure the Head Coach is thrown under the bus, and I do think a veteran presence at Quarter Back is important for the Chicago Bears after back to back close defeats.

Motivation is the one aspect that raises doubts, but they played well Defensively in the Week 11 defeat to Baltimore and their backup Quarter Back. The Bears could be up against another backup behind Center in this Thanksgiving game too if Jared Goff is not able to go for the Lions, but it may actually not be the worst thing for Chicago if they are facing someone that was banged up enough to miss out playing just a few days ago.

Detroit will be encouraged by the way they have been able to run the ball and I do think they are going to lean on D'Andre Swift who has been able to rip off some big gains on the ground. He had a decent game against the Cleveland Browns despite that team being one that can close on the run, and even the improved performance of the Chicago Defensive Line in recent games may not be enough to clamp down on the Running Back.

Controlling the clock and the field position is going to be hugely important for the Lions and keeping Jared Goff or Tim Boyle in third and manageable spots is vitally important. Like the Bears, the Offensive Line has not been as strong in pass protection as they have in opening up the run, but the Chicago Defensive Line do have the kind of players that can breakthrough the Line and get after the Quarter Back if Detroit need time for their running routes to develop.

It would not be a surprise if a big play from the Chicago Defensive Line makes the difference between the teams on the day and I think the Bears can be backed here.

Detroit are struggling Offensively and, at best, they are going to have a banged up Quarter Back who is going to be facing a pass rush pressure in his face. Both teams should have success running the ball, but the Bears Defensive Line may be the best unit on the field in this one and they can make enough plays to give their team the possessions to win and cover.

The rumours about Matt Nagy have to have an impact on the way this game is played, but the players may already know the Head Coach is gone and losing in front of the nation to a winless team would be embarrassing. That may focus the Bears who won here on Thanksgiving Day two seasons ago and Chicago are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in the series between these NFC North rivals.

There are some terrible trends opposing both teams, but Chicago are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record and I will look for them to win and cover in the first of three Thanksgiving Day games.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but it is Thanksgiving Day and playing well on this day is going to be a big motivation for the players that are able to take to the field. The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) dropped their Week 11 game at the Kansas City Chiefs, but they still have a healthy lead in the NFC East and look the favourite to win the Division with the other three teams all holding losing records.

That defeat to the Chiefs hurt the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) who have dropped to the bottom of the AFC West with three losses in a row behind them. There were so many positives when the Raiders were three games above 0.500, but this has been a difficult season for them off the field with Jon Gruden fired over emails he sent before he took over as Head Coach here and Henry Ruggs released and looking like he will be facing multiple years in jail after a car crash that left a victim dead.

It certainly hasn't helped the Raiders concentrate on their Football and the short week means little time to prepare for this game. The Raiders were also beaten here on Thanksgiving Day in 2013 and they are going to have to be a lot better all around if they are going to beat a Dallas team that have been really strong at home.

Dallas hold a 4-1 record at home in 2021, although things are not going as smoothly as Mike McCarthy will have been hoping. Injuries and Covid-19 issues have been a problem for Dallas and they could be without their top two Receivers for this one, while Dan Quinn's Defensive unit have just fallen away from the kind of high standards they were setting earlier this season.

Dak Prescott did not play as well as he would have liked in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but he has largely been in top form at Quarter Back and I do think the Cowboys can bounce back with Prescott leading the way. I do think he will be looking to lean on his running game a little more in this one with the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb potentially sitting, although Lamb looks to be on the right path to playing in this one despite suffering a concussion in Week 11.

Even then, Dallas will look for their powerful Offensive Line to get back to basics and set the team up Offensively by controlling the clock on the ground. Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard give the Cowboys a strong one-two punch out of the backfield and I think they will pick up from where Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Bengals left off last week.

For large parts the Las Vegas Defensive unit have played well, but they have not been given a lot of support from the Offensive side of the team. Short fields being given up through turnovers, or too many three and outs has meant the Raiders Defense have spent too much time on the field and eventually worn down in their losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in their last couple of games.

If the Raiders Defensive Line can make some plays against the run, they will feel they can get too Dak Prescott who may have to rely on Receivers with whom he does not have the same chemistry as those who are absent. It can lead to stalled drives or settling for Field Goals and that should mean the Raiders have a chance to at least keep this close even if they cannot win outright.

The three losses in a row will have dented the confidence of the road team and Derek Carr is not playing at a very good level right now. He is not being helped by the players around him that have been unable to stretch the field as the Raiders would have liked and that has just closed the space around the Receivers that Derek Carr prefers to target, most notably Darren Waller.

Derek Carr can not afford to hold the ball for too long to set routes develop as he faces up to the Dallas Defensive Line that have generated a really effective pass rush in recent games. Micah Parsons is coming into his own and the Raiders could face some pressure if they are left in third and long spots, although Josh Jacobs is set to have one of his better games of the season.

Injury has slowed down Jacobs at Running Back, but he will be operating behind an Offensive Line which has helped the Raiders pick up some solid gains on the ground in terms of yards per carry. Being in large deficits have forced Las Vegas to get away from the run, but Josh Jacobs should be able to move the ball on the ground in the early part of this game and that should ease the pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back.

He will still need to make plays, but operating out of third and manageable is a big difference than third and very long and I expect Carr to have a decent game too. The ball hawking Dallas Secondary will have to be respected, but I do think the Raiders can establish the run and that will give them a chance to move the ball with relative consistency.

The Cowboys have played well off a straight up loss and have covered the last four times in that situation, while they have been very good at home and as the home favourite. They are capable of taking a game away with their ability to create turnovers and with an Offensive unit that can pile up some big numbers, but the Raiders have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five as the road underdog.

Add in the short week which may leave the Cowboys without a couple of key players and I think there is going to be enough from the Las Vegas Raiders to keep this one close even if they are unable to avoid a fourth defeat in a row.

Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The last six weeks have been a difficult time for the Buffalo Bills (6-4) who have lost three of their last five games, including a blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts last time out. A big game is on deck for the Bills, but they can't overlook this Thanksgiving Day game after losing the lead in the AFC East to the New England Patriots and I do expect to see a focused performance from the road team.

Another team looking to bounce back from recent setbacks is the New Orleans Saints (5-5) who have dropped three games in succession and fallen a little further behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. Those three consecutive losses have also pushed the Saints down the overall standings and the Wild Card berths may be beyond them if they cannot begin to turn things around soon.

New Orleans will be back in action next Thursday Night, but injuries are piling up with Alvin Kamara set to miss out again. Mark Ingram may also be missing for the Saints and they may struggle to get the run going into this game despite the Buffalo Bills giving up a huge amount of yards to Colts Running Back Jonathan Taylor in Week 11.

In the main part, the Buffalo Defensive Line have been pretty good at clamping down on the run and I do think the absence of Alvin Kamara hurts the New Orleans Saints. Sean McDermott is a solid Head Coach and even in the short week I imagine he is going to be looking for the Buffalo Bills to force Trevor Siemian to beat them through the air.

The backup Quarter Back has been well protected, but Trevor Siemian has had difficulty in finding consistency throwing the ball down the field with the Saints continuing to miss the presence of Michael Thomas. New Orleans have had some good performances from the Receivers that are available, but they are inconsistent performers and this Buffalo Secondary should be capable of making enough plays to ensure their team are in a position to bounce back from the embarrassing loss to the Colts.

If the Bills can set up some shorter fields for their Offensive unit, I do think they are going to be capable of pulling clear and covering this spread. They are a big road favourite and the public look to be behind Buffalo, which is never a great position to want to be in, but the Bills should be capable of showing they are much better than their performance in Week 11 and try and build some momentum before the Week 13 meeting with the New England Patriots.

Josh Allen did not play well and has admitted that he cannot continue to be as guilty in hurting his team with turnovers as he has been. The Quarter Back has not played with the consistency he produced last season, but Josh Allen can be as dangerous with his legs as he can be with his arm and I also think the Dome conditions in New Orleans will suit this entire Buffalo Offensive unit down to the ground.

The Buffalo Offensive Line has been able to make plays on the ground, but it looks like being a much tougher task against the New Orleans Defensive Line. However, Philadelphia were able to make some really strong gains with their rushing Offense in Week 11 and I do think Buffalo have been able to run the ball well enough to at least get in front of the chains and open up the playbook for Josh Allen.

There are some solid Receiving options in the Buffalo rotation and getting in front of the chains will give Josh Allen a chance of making sure he is hitting the likes of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox down the field. New Orleans are a talented team, but they are one that can give up some significant plays through the air and I do think Josh Allen can out-duel Trevor Siemian in leading his team to an important win to try and get back on track.

New Orleans will hope their Defensive Line can clamp down on the run and put them in a position to unleash the pass rush towards Josh Allen. Mistakes have occurred when Allen has felt pressure or been forced to try and do too much, and that may be the best way for the Saints to keep this close.

However, they are not the same team with Trevor Siemian at Quarter Back and he is just as likely to make an errant throw or two that gives the Bills a chance to pull clear and cover this spread.

Buffalo are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four following a loss, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a blowout loss at home. The Bills are also 7-3 against the spread in their last ten road games and I think they will really enjoy the conditions indoors compared with playing in the outdoors.

Sean Payton has led New Orleans to an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five off a loss. That one loss against the spread in that time occurred in Week 11 and I think the Buffalo Bills can find a way to win this one by at least a Touchdown and then take the extra time to prepare for a big game with the New England Patriots.

I expect the Bills to show off their power behind both the Offensive and Defensive unit in this one and I will look for them to cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: We may be past the halfway point of the regular season, but even being two games below 0.500 has not dented the ambitions of the Atlanta Falcons (4-6). Teams in the NFC have struggled for consistency and there is still every chance that the Falcons can right their wobbling ship and get back into contention for Wild Card spots in the Conference.

That should keep them focused after back to back embarrassing losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots, while the Atlanta Falcons have had a little more time to prepare for this Week 12 game. They do have a very big game coming up against Divisional rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Falcons have to win this game to move back alongside the likes of the New Orleans Saints in the Conference.

As poor as the last couple of outings have been for the Atlanta Falcons, they are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) who have lost two in a row and who look like they have are having some real struggles from an Offensive point of view. They did upset the Buffalo Bills in a Defensive encounter, but the Jaguars have been hit hard by injuries on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that may show up here.

Much depends on James Robinson and whether he can establish the run, but that has not been something that has been very easy to do against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons Defensive Line have stepped up their level of play and they did not play badly on this side of the ball in the blow out loss to the New England Patriots.

Trevor Lawrence should have some spaces to exploit in the Secondary, but he has not really played as well as the Jaguars would have liked in recent weeks. He has not been helped by the lack of top Receiving options and injuries have hurt the Jaguars in the passing game and I do think Trevor Lawrence is still a work in progress, which should give the Atlanta Falcons an opportunity to get back to winning ways.

A struggling passing game has been a major problem for the Atlanta Falcons as Matt Ryan has been given very little time by his Offensive Line and the absence of Calvin Ridley has been a blow for the team. It doesn't help that the Falcons have struggled to open up running lanes and left Ryan in third and long spots, but there have also been suggestions that the Falcons have been predictable with their play.

You have to think the extra preparation time will allow the Falcons to put some creases into their Offensive output, while Cordarrelle Patterson should be able to play to give Matt Ryan a solid safety valve to rely upon. His return should also mean Atlanta have a little more success running the ball and it should be key to the outcome of the game with Ryan likely to have a bounce back game with extra preparation time to get the Atlanta Falcons back on track.

They are not an easy team to trust, but the Falcons are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a losing record and I think they can win on the road at a struggling Jacksonville team.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: All four teams in the AFC North have a winning record and all will believe they can earn a Wild Card spot in the Conference at the very least. The Division is up for grabs over the coming weeks and so every one of the Divisional games remaining is going to be very important and games that will mean more than most.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) have failed to win either of their last two games and that has seen them fall off the pace being set, while the Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) returned from their Bye Week and ended a run of back to back losses. They were big winners over the Las Vegas Raiders to get back on track and the Bengals already hold a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

Earning another won't be easy, but they look like they could match up well with the Steelers who have been struggling on both sides of the ball. Some of the Defensive injuries have not helped Pittsburgh, but they could be back at full strength on that side of the ball ahead of this game and that is very important for them.

The Defensive Line have just had some issues stopping the run and I do think Joe Mixon is going to show off some of the talent that had him compared with Le'Veon Bell when the latter was with the Steelers. Joe Mixon should be able to keep the Bengals in front of the chains in this one and that should make things a little easier for Joe Burrow.

The Quarter Back has the talent and the supporting cast to expose some of the Pittsburgh issues in the Secondary, but running the ball means Joe Burrow will not have to hold onto the ball for too long. That is all important to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush from getting on top of him and it should mean Cincinnati are in a position to keep the ball moving and hurt a Steelers Defensive unit that has given up plenty of yards in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11.

It might not need to be a game in which the Bengals need to score too many points though and that is because the Steelers are still having issues with their own Offensive play. Ben Roethlisberger has not looked like himself and I am not sure he will be playing with Pittsburgh in 2022, while the Steelers Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection as well as run blocking.

Big Ben did have some successes throwing the ball last week, but he will be put under pressure by the Bengals pass rush and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this Divisional game.

The Bengals Secondary have been hurt by some big plays in recent games, but Pittsburgh have been guilty of throwing the ball in front of the Defensive units they have been facing and I think the Cincinnati team can beat Pittsburgh for a second time this season.

However, I am not sure the Bengals will blow the Steelers away and it has to be remembered that they earned fewer yards than Pittsburgh in the road win earlier this season. Beating the same Divisional opponent twice in a year is very difficult and I do think the Steelers can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to at least keep this one relatively close.

Cincinnati are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite, while Pittsburgh are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven as the road underdog.

The Steelers have a strong record in Cincinnati too and I think getting more than a Field Goal start with a team that will have Defensive reinforcements should be enough on the spread.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Two teams from opposing Conferences will meet over Thanksgiving Weekend with every belief that they can earn a PlayOff spot at the end of this season. It may be surprising when note both have losing records, but the Carolina Panthers (5-6) and Miami Dolphins (4-7) will be looking to build some momentum before entering late Bye Weeks.

The Panthers were beaten by the Washington Football Team in Week 11 in Cam Newton's first start at Quarter Back having returned to the team that Drafted him. He has taken over from Sam Darnold as the starter, but that loss also means Carolina have lost the last nine games in which Cam Newton has started at Quarter Back.

This is a chance to end that run, but they are facing a Miami Dolphins team that have won back to back games and who look like they might have the push that will take them back into PlayOff contention. Games coming up give the Dolphins the chance to do that, but this looks like it could be a really difficult match up for them.

While the Carolina Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run of late, the Miami Dolphins have not really been able to open many holes for Myles Gaskin and even the performance against the New York Jets looks like being an exception to the rule. The Miami Offensive Line have been struggling in all aspects of their play for some time and I am not sure they are going to be able to exploit the issues the Panthers have had and they do not match up well with their opponent.

Tua Tagovailoa has been playing well over the last couple of games at Quarter Back, but he will be throwing into a strong Carolina Secondary. While I expect him to make some good throws, Tagovailoa is also operating behind an Offensive Line which has not played well in pass protection and who will be facing a pretty solid Carolina pass rush.

I expect those pass rushers to give Tua Tagovailoa some issues when it comes to waiting for his Receivers to get down the field and it is a key part of the reason I feel the Carolina Panthers will win this game on the road.

The Panthers do match up well with the Dolphins on the other side of the ball too and the return of Christian McCaffrey is very important for Carolina. For much of the season, Miami have struggled to stop the run and I do think McCaffrey and Cam Newton can use their legs to keep the Panthers in front of the chains and that should make it possible for Carolina to move the ball down the field and score the points they need to win here.

Cam Newton will have to be aware of the strength of the Miami Secondary, but he should have time to make his throws with the way his Offensive Line have been playing. An ability to scramble with the ball also helps and I think the Panthers can get the better of this non-Conference opponent.

Carolina are 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve road games and can put in a full effort knowing they will be entering their Bye Week following this game.

Brian Flores has Coached Miami well and his team are always in games even when set as the underdog, especially at home, but I do think this is not a good match up for the Dolphins on either side of the ball. I think the Carolina pass rush may be the key factor in the outcome of the game and I think they can rattle Tua Tagovailoa, while the Panthers are expected to control the clock with their rushing Offense and that can lead to a win for the road favourite here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Reaching the PlayOffs is the bare minimum that both of these teams will have been expecting of themselves before the season began, but only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) are playing up to the level they would have been hoping. They snapped a two game losing run with a win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, although there is still plenty for the Buccaneers to play for as they look to finish with the top Seed in the NFC.

They are going to have to fight for that right through to the final week of the regular season with the way things are looking, but the Buccaneers will have to prove themselves on the road if they are going to earn the top Seed. Tampa Bay have simply not been as good on the road in 2021 and both Bruce Arians and Tom Brady have noted that in recent weeks.

Now they head back out on the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) who have moved back above 0.500 thanks to a blow out win over the Buffalo Bills. Even then, the Colts would not hold a PlayOff spot if the season ended now and they are still 2 games behind the injury hit Tennessee Titans in the AFC South having lost both games to their Divisional rival.

Indianapolis blew out the Buffalo Bills thanks to Jonathan Taylor who scored five Touchdowns alone in Week 11 with a dominant performance on the ground the key. The Colts have an Offensive Line that feel they can bully any opponent they face, but it will still be a big challenge for them to impose themselves on the Tampa Bay Defensive Line who have prided themselves on being able to stop the run.

I am not sure they will be able to clamp down on Taylor and the Colts totally, but the Buccaneers may dare Carson Wentz to try and beat them through the air and it is something that could give them the edge in the contest if they can make the Colts rely on the pass. Carson Wentz has not played badly in recent weeks, but he has not been able to put together big passing days, while Wentz is never far away from making a big mistake which can be costly for his team.

The Offensive Line has at least protected Carson Wentz of late, but the Buccaneers Secondary is looking a little healthier and this side of the ball will come down to the line of scrimmage. Both teams will feel they can win there and it will certainly be the area from which Tampa Bay can find a big win if they can find a way to limit the damage Jonathan Taylor is able to do.

So far this season we have yet to see Tampa Bay at their best on the road, but this looks a good chance for Tom Brady and the Offensive unit to have a solid outing. Bruce Arians and the Buccaneers prefer the pass to the run, but I think they will have a reasonable balance in this game which gives the Super Bowl Champions an opportunity to win an important game to match the Green Bay Buccaneers record for the season.

The Colts Defensive Line have allowed some big plays on the ground, but rushing the ball is something the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can move away from. Leonard Fournette has played well when he has been given the ball, but Tom Brady has the Receiving options to expose some of the Indianapolis Secondary who have allowed over 250 passing yards per game in their last three games.

Tampa Bay have really protected Tom Brady well and I think the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can pick up some big gains through the air which will give the Buccaneers every chance of scoring enough points to win this non-Conference game. Rob Gronkowski gives Tom Brady another valuable Receiving option and I think Tampa Bay can finally produce a solid road performance to get into a position to win this game.

The Buccaneers have not covered in their last six as the road favourite, but Indianapolis are 1-6 against the spread as the home underdog.

The Colts are coming in off a big win, but that may be tough to back up with the match up in front of them and I will look for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have too much Offensive firepower for Indianapolis to stick with.

It feels like the sharps are behind the road team here and I want to be on their side and against the public who are sticking with the home underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: Joe Judge might be given some time to turn things around for the New York Giants (3-7), but the Head Coach has heard the frustrations of the fans. That is based around some of the Offensive play-calling that Jason Garrett had been offering and the former Dallas Cowboys Head Coach has been relieved of his role as Offensive Co-Ordinator at the Giants.

The fans will be arriving for this Divisional game hoping to see some improvement from the Giants on that side of the ball, even though they are playing on a short week having been blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. The Giants are still in contention for a Wild Card spot if they can turn their form around and that will need to begin here against their NFC East rivals.

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) look to be rolling with three wins from four games and they will be getting excited when seeing how the Dallas Cowboys are playing at the moment. A win for the Eagles will have the fans believing they can push for a Wild Card spot in the NFC at the very least and they are playing with some real confidence at the moment.

Both of these teams will actually look to attack the other in very similar ways- the Offensive Lines have been playing really well and helping the Eagles and the Giants establish the run. Both are going up against Defensive Lines that have given up some big plays on the ground so you have to imagine the likes of Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard and Saquon Barkley all to have big games.

Running the ball should open things up for the two Quarter Backs too and both Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones are going to be throwing into a Secondary which has struggled to make plays. Out of the two, I think Jones is the more confident passer and he certainly has some big time Receiving weapons compared with Hurts and the Eagles, but this does feel like a game in which both teams will move the ball and it could easily come down to which of the two teams has the ball last to determine a winner.

Daniel Jones has struggled at times with the pass protection that has been offered to him, but he may benefit from the fact that the Eagles have not been able to generate much of a pass rush of late. With Barkley likely to be able to establish the run, I think Jones will have a bit more time to throw the ball down the field, while losing Jason Garrett's vanilla play-calling can only benefit the Quarter Back.

I think that is important for the New York Giants and they can certainly make enough plays to make use of the amount of points that are being given to them. Stopping the Philadelphia Eagles will not be easy considering the form they have been showing of late, but a close, competitive game means getting more than a key number of points is crucial.

Games between these NFC East rivals do tend to be competitive and that is underlined by the fact that the underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series.

The Giants are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against Divisional opponents.

This feels like it will be a game that comes down to the final touches and I will look for the New York Giants to keep this close with their ability to match up well with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: None of the teams in the AFC West have a losing record and some of that has to be down to the way each have been performing against opponents from the NFC East. It does mean that every Divisional game increases in importance and especially as we get into Week 12 of the regular season and with all four teams chasing a Divisional crown as well as a potential Wild Card spot in the PlayOff.

The Denver Broncos (5-5) had won two in a row, but they were beaten by the Philadelphia Eagles last time out and that has dropped them back into 0.500 for the season. They are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) who had lost three of their previous four games, but rallied late in their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are half a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the Division.

The AFC is tightly bunched up and so it is very important to try and build some momentum as we finish up the November schedule and get into the home run towards the post-season. There is an extra game on the regular season schedule in 2021, but that is not going to have a major impact on the focus of teams and both the Broncos and Chargers will be desperate to post a win on Sunday.

It is the Los Angeles Chargers who will enter the game as a narrow favourite and I certainly think they are playing well enough to get the better of the Denver Broncos who have a losing record when facing AFC opponents. Beating up on the NFC has proved to be the key for the Broncos, but Teddy Bridgewater and company are not playing with consistency and Vic Fangio has to be feeling the Head Coach seat warming up underneath him.

Teddy Bridgewater is going to be operating behind a banged up Offensive Line and it has not been as easy running the ball against the Chargers Defensive Line in recent games as it has been for much of the season. That may see the Los Angeles Chargers looking to clamp down up front and force Bridgewater to find the time to try and beat them down the field, but that will be an issue behind this Offensive Line if the Chargers continue to generate a solid pass rush.

The veteran Quarter Back has largely avoided mistakes, but the Broncos continue to struggle without a consistent player in this position since Peyton Manning retired. Rumours suggest they will get a massive upgrade in the spot next season, but for now the Broncos may have issues moving the ball with any consistency and that should give Justin Herbert and the Chargers every chance of winning this Divisional game on the road.

Unlike the Chargers Defensive Line, Denver have begun to wear down up front and I do think the road team will be able to move the ball on the ground to keep Justin Herbert in third and manageable spots. Austin Ekeler is as big a threat catching the ball out of the backfield and taking short passes a considerable distance down the field, and I do think that helps the Quarter Back who has some big time Receiving options to target when he drops back to throw down the field.

Being able to establish the run either on the ground or with short passes should mean Herbert does not need to hold the ball for too long. That should also calm the Denver pass rush and it should open up the passing lanes for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen who can win their battles on the outside against the Defensive Backs.

The Chargers do not have the best recent record at Mile High, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five on the road as the favourite. They have also covered in their last five against teams from the same Division, although the Broncos will be strong coming out of the Bye and that has to be respected.

Denver have not played well against the AFC though and he has failed to cover in any of his last four in that spot and I will look for the Chargers to win and cover here.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Two of the leading teams in the NFC are meeting in Week 12 and this could have serious ramifications for the Number 1 Seed in January. There is only one team that will be receiving a Bye this season and these two teams will both believe they can earn that spot.

The Los Angeles Rams (7-3) are coming out of a Bye Week after losses in back to back games and Sean McVay has spoken about the benefit of having that time to re-evaluate and get back to basics. Matthew Stafford has been struggling with some issues with his back, but the Quarter Back should be ready to go in this one and he has been practicing all week.

He certainly looks to be in better shape than Aaron Rodgers who will be starting for the Green Bay Packers (8-3) and looking to drag the team back from a disappointing loss to Divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Rodgers has admitted that his toe is causing plenty of discomfort and the Green Bay Packers are down a couple of Offensive Linemen that could spell trouble against the Los Angeles Rams.

Revenge will be on the mind of the latter after losing in the PlayOff at this Stadium back in January, and they are certainly looking healthier on the Defensive Line which has to benefit the Rams. Aaron Donald was not in peak shape back in January, but he looks strong again and the Los Angeles Rams will be looking to get after Aaron Rodgers who may not be able to scramble away from pressure in the same way he has been able to do in his career.

The Packers will look to ease the pass rush by running the ball, but establishing the run against the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is a huge challenge for any team in the NFL. AJ Dillon may have some decent gains, but the banged up Offensive Line is going to be under pressure and I think the Rams can clamp down on the Green Bay Packers.

Los Angeles are all in when it comes to the Super Bowl, and their Defensive unit has played well even in the back to back losses suffered. The key for the Rams is seeing how they can cope without Robert Woods who has been lost for the season, although the Bye Week has given Los Angeles the chance to get Odell Beckham Jr up to speed.

Matthew Stafford's main target will remain Cooper Kuup and the Green Bay Packers may have some difficulty stopping the Rams, especially if they play as they did last week in the defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. The quick passing game can be very dangerous when Stafford is at his best, and it also opens things up on the ground for the Rams.

Injuries in the Secondary could leave Green Bay exposed and I do think the Los Angeles Rams can bounce back with the extra preparation time that will have been afforded to Sean McVay and his Coaching staff.

Revenge is motivation enough, but the Rams are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen off a loss. The Packers are another team who regularly bounce from losses with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back, but they are surprisingly 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and I think this is a good time for the Rams to be visiting town.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team Pick: When the Monday Night Football selections were made back in April, the feeling would have been that this would be an important game in Week 12 of the regular season. Both the Washington Football Team (4-6) and the Seattle Seahawks (3-7) are used to playing Football in January, but the season has been a difficult one for both.

However, there is an expanded PlayOff this season and that means a team that finishes 8-9 will have a chance of earning a spot in the post-season come January. The pressure is on both of these teams though with their losing records and that makes it a very important Monday Night Football game for both Washington and Seattle.

Injuries have not really helped either team and both have become used to playing second string Quarter Backs this season. At least the Seahawks have Russell Wilson back in the line up, but the veteran has not looked himself and there are rumours that he is no longer happy playing with the Seahawks and under Pete Carroll as Head Coach.

The Seahawks have lost back to back games, while the Washington Football team have won back to back games and the momentum is with the home team. Travelling across the country is not ideal for Seattle who have other players that have been banged up, but Russell Wilson has to be feeling a little better with a couple of games under his belt and I do think the Quarter Back will have a much better outing than what we have seen from him since his return from an injury.

Chris Carson is out, but Alex Collins is capable of running the ball and I do think he can help Seattle establish the run in this one. With injuries on the Washington Defensive Line, I do think establishing the run will just offer Russell Wilson a touch more time to find the likes of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf down the field.

He has not been at his best, but Russell Wilson is not someone that has been used to Quarter Backing teams that are on the brink of losing three games in a row.

Seattle will have some drives stalling on current form, but the Defensive unit have at least stepped up their play and that is important in keeping the Seattle Seahawks in games. They have really found a way to clamp down on the run in recent games and I do think they can get the better of the Washington Offensive Line which has not been able to open too many big holes up front.

Antonio Gibson will make some plays, but the Seahawks can at least force the Football Team to throw the ball from third and long spots and that is an issue for the home team considering the pass protection breakdowns they have had in recent weeks. Taylor Heinicke has shown he is a capable backup, but this is a Quarter Back that has struggled for consistency throwing the ball and I am not sure being in third and long is the best spot for him to try and expose the Seattle Secondary.

I expect Taylor Heinicke to have some success, especially as Seattle have struggled to generate a strong pass rush, but moving the ball from obvious passing down and distance is never easy.

I do worry about the spot with Seattle possibly playing spoiler for rivals San Francisco next week, while the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson rumours are of concern too. It may see the Seahawks self-combust over the remainder of the 2021 season, but they can still get back into PlayOff contention with a win here and next week and I think Wilson will want to show he is far from done after back to back defeats.

Seattle have a strong record against the spread coming off a straight up loss, while they have a much stronger record on Monday Night Football than the Washington Football Team. This is effectively a pick 'em game and I think the run will be more effective for Seattle that can lead them to an important victory on the day.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)