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Showing posts with label November 23rd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label November 23rd. Show all posts

Sunday, 23 November 2025

NFL Week 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 20th November-Monday 24th November)

The end of November is fast approaching and this is the time when people will begin to wonder which of the fourteen NFL teams are going to work their way into the Playoffs.

It really does feel like six of those teams will be playing in the West Divisions- both AFC and NFC- while the NFC North has set the table for three of the teams to be also be playing in the post-season.

Some big teams could still be missing when it is all said and done in early January and some are worrying about the Kansas City Chiefs- this feels like a big week for them against the Indianapolis Colts, while injuries have been really impacting teams all around the League at a much higher rate than is usually the case.

However, that has also kept the door open for some teams to challenge for Playoff spots and the Baltimore Ravens are proof of that with just a game separating them and the AFC North lead, while having big games against the Pittsburgh Steelers to be played.

The NFL have made a good decision to put plenty of Divisional games on the second half of the regular season schedule and that will keep players motivated.


It has been a difficult opening eleven weeks of the NFL season and the Picks are running just under 0.500, which is a real disappointment.

Special Teams have been having a big impact with the new kick off rules, and those have landed in the wrong way more often than not, but that should be something that reverts to the mean.

Once you reach Thanksgiving Day, it does feel like the regular season is on the turn towards home and that means there is some pressure to get the Picks moving with some momentum and consistency.


New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: They won, and that matters, but the Baltimore Ravens (5-5) will be aware that they need a stronger performance from Lamar Jackson at Quarter Back if they are going to have the kind of season hoped. He looked a little wary in the win over the Cleveland Browns and made some mistakes, but the Ravens have managed to remain hot on the heels of the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers and they still have to face this rival twice in the final weeks of the regular season.

The Ravens are scheduled to play on Thanksgiving Day and will have a mini-Bye ahead of the first game with the Steelers, but Baltimore have been playing catch up after a slow start to the season and cannot afford any slips against teams they are expected to beat.

In Week 12 they are hosting the New York Jets (2-8) who had won two in a row before losing on Thursday Night Football against the AFC East leading New England Patriots.

This defeat has been seen as an opportunity to make a change at Quarter Back, which does feel harsh on Justin Fields.

Tyrod Taylor was scheduled to come in as starter during the opening run of losses, but the Jets backup was injured and Justin Fields helped put together a couple of wins. This has only delayed the move, but it will be asking a lot of the veteran to help the Jets find an Offensive spark they feel has been missing.

He started his career with the Baltimore Ravens, but Tyrod Taylor has bounced around the League as a backup since then and this is going to be a tough test against an improving Ravens Defensive unit.

The hope for the Jets is that they can hand the ball to Breece Hall and look for him to attack a Baltimore Defensive Line that is looking better, but which does give up some big runs when losing a bit of focus. The Quarter Back is capable of moving the pocket with his legs and looking to escape down the field where he can, which will also help, although you have to feel the Baltimore Ravens will know more than most how to handle someone behind Center who can make as many plays with his legs as he does with his arm.

New York will not want to have to rely on Tyrod Taylor and an inexperienced group of Receivers to have to step up and so it is very important to not lose touch with Baltimore on the scoreboard.

Lamar Jackson was clearly dealing with something in the win over Cleveland, but the Ravens are trying to downplay any injury being more than 'wear and tear' that comes with playing Football.

It was the lack of plays with his legs that caught the eye, but the Baltimore Ravens may be comfortable using Derrick Henry in the main to pound the rock against a Jets Defensive Line that have lost some key players in recent weeks. It has resulted in a decline in the numbers against the ground attack and the Ravens should keep Jackson and company in third and manageable spots.

The Sacks piled up last week against the Ravens, but it should be more comfortable for the team if they are running the ball as they should be able to do against the Jets.

This should mean Lamar Jackson does not have to hold onto the ball for too long and there is likely to be a lot more consistency from the home team when it comes to keeping drives moving up and down the field.

A distraction of playing on a short week against a Divisional rival is a concern, but Lamar Jackson has an 11-5-1 record against the spread when set as a double digit favourite in regular season games. After the poor overall performance in the Week 11 win, Baltimore can be much stronger all around in this one and rattle the veteran Tyrod Taylor into a mistake or two, which should see the Ravens pull away.


New York Giants @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has not been a good season for the two New York teams in the NFL and the Giants (2-9) are right there with the Jets in the fight for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

They have already fired the Head Coach, but the team have been decimated by injury and are going to be without rookie Quarter Back Jaxson Dart again. He was a part of the old regime so you do have to wonder if the Giants will think about taking a Quarter Back in the next Draft if they finish with the top Pick, so it is important for Dart to get back in the lineup and show what he can do as soon as possible.

It will be Jameis Winston again in Week 12 and the veteran did help the New York Giants to a competitive loss against the Green Bay Packers last week.

However, it was another defeat and that was at home, while this time they are travelling to face a NFC North team on the road and one that is looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat.

The Detroit Lions (6-4) made too many mistakes and were unable to reach double digits in terms of points in the defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. They are home this time and Detroit have regularly bounced back from setbacks, even in a season where they have suffered double the number of regular season defeats compared with 2024 and with seven games yet to play.

There is also the potential distraction of playing the early kick off on Thanksgiving Day, but the Lions are 3-1 against the spread in the last four years before that big game.

This season they are also facing an important game against Divisional rivals Green Bay Packers who are above the Lions in the standings, but Head Coach Dan Campbell will want to see a positive response from his team after the below par performance against the Eagles.

We should see a pretty comfortable game plan from the Detroit Lions when they have the ball- the Giants have struggled to stop the run and that is something that the Lions are going to exploit.

Jared Goff had some issues with his timing in the loss to the Eagles, but he should have more time with the team in front of the chains and the Quarter Back can also bounce back with the Lions looking to show off their teeth before the big rematch with the Packers.

Overall it is going to be a much more testing experience for the New York Giants when they have the ball.

Jameis Winston offered up some leadership to a young and banged up crew, but he is likely going to have to make some plays out of third and long spots on the field. The Giants have been operating well enough behind this Offensive Line, but running the ball against the Detroit Defensive Line is never easy and the Giants could soon become one-dimensional with the play-calling as they look to keep themselves in the game.

Despite the injuries in the Secondary, the Detroit Lions have continued to play the pass effectively- they are helped out by the fact that the team can generate a solid pass rush to put the pressure onto Quarter Backs, and that has aided the backup players coming in to plug holes.

This is where the Lions could take control of this game and they are facing a New York Giants team that have not been as effective on the road as they have been at home.

Over the last two and a half years, the Giants are 8-15 against the spread when playing on the road and Dan Campbell's record after a loss suggests the Lions will have too much for the visiting team in Week 12.


New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The trade for Joe Flacco looked a decent decision for the Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. They would have been hoping that the veteran could keep them on track, while waiting for Joe Burrow to return, but the Bengals have lost three in a row.

This is a team that has been competitive in those games, but ultimately they needed to get over the line a couple of times.

Joe Burrow has been back in practice, but a decision has been made to not take any risks with the franchise Quarter Back and he has been ruled out for this Week 12 game. The Bengals do play against Divisional rivals Baltimore on Thanksgiving Day, which is a game that Burrow may be targeting, and that is a potential distraction knowing Ja'Marr Chase is also missing this week.

The Bengals are hosting the AFC East leading New England Patriots (9-2) who have been the big surprise package in the 2025 season and who will be looking to extend the lead over the Buffalo Bills.

Right now the Patriots look good to finish with the top Seed in the AFC and they have won eight in a row, while also having had a mini-Bye ahead of this game after beating the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

Drake Maye has really been growing into the Quarter Back position and he will be encouraged by some of the life being shown by the Offensive Line when it comes to run blocking. The more carries being picked up TreVeyon Henderson, the better the Patriots are becoming, and they can punish this Bengals team on the ground and just make things very comfortable for the Quarter Back.

Injuries on the entire Defensive unit has held the Bengals back and the Secondary have been struggling, which is going to be exposed if the New England Patriots are in third and manageable spots on the field. A confidence has been growing in the chemistry between Drake Maye and his Receivers and the Patriots should be able to keep drives moving with some real consistency.

This is unlikely to be a blowout immediately with the Bengals Offensive Line and Chase Brown showing life in recent outings, while they will have noted some of the issues the Patriots have had in stopping the run. However, the absence of Ja'Marr Chase makes it so much easier to find a game plan to deal with Cincinnati and that could mean focusing on clamping down on the run and asking Quarter Back Joe Flacco to beat them with the Receivers that are available.

Throwing against this Patriots Secondary would have been challenging even with a full complement of Receivers, and Joe Flacco will have to be careful after a back-breaking Interception in what had been a close game against Pittsburgh beforehand.

You cannot dismiss the spread and it being a touch high.

However, the feeling is that the Bengals could be gearing up to give Baltimore all they can handle on Thursday night and that may see them lose a bit of focus for what has been a very good New England team.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 30-31, - 3.87 Units (61 Units Staked, - 6.34% Yield)

Friday, 22 November 2024

College Football Week 13 Picks 2024 (Saturday 23rd November)

There may be an expanded College Football Playoff format in place at the end of this season, but the tougher schedules that teams have chosen to face has really kept the end of the regular season hugely exciting for fans of the sport.

The SEC are expected to have as many as five teams taking part in the twelve team Playoff, but a number of those leading the way have already been beaten twice.

What does that mean? Well, some Head Coaches have made it clear that any SEC team that has two losses on the schedule may actually be better off if they miss the Championship Game.

Winning that would mean a top four Seed and a Bye through the First Round, but a third defeat would likely mean elimination, even if that is in the Championship Game, and so there is a real belief that the better option would be to win out in the regular season and hope to miss out. Until the change is made to perhaps give the two teams in any Championship Game an edge over those that miss out, you can imagine this is a situation that will come up again and so the first change to be made is to reorganise Conferences into Divisions.

That is for another season and for now teams are going into the final two weeks of the regular season hoping to do enough to be invited into the new College Football Playoff bracket. There are some big games for the likes of the Indiana Hoosiers, who visit the Ohio State Buckeyes, while the top of the Big 12 Conference could have the Championship Game set this weekend.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Army Black Knights Pick: The expanded College Football Playoff was always going to offer a bit more room for a team like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) to join eleven other teams chasing the National Championship. Despite an upset earlier this season, the Fighting Irish are 6th in the latest Playoff Rankings that have been released and Notre Dame are likely to be one of the teams selected, albeit without a Bye Week, as long as they win out in the regular season.

There is no Championship Game that could bolster the resume for Notre Dame and there is little doubt that they have not exactly faced the top teams in College Football. Even some of the better looking wins have been weakened by other upsets, but the Fighting Irish are doing what they need to.

In Week 13 they are hosting an unbeaten Army Black Knights (9-0) team that will put an unbeaten record on the line having secured a spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game against Tulane. They moved up into 19th place in the College Football Rankings, but Army would make a considerable move and likely into the top twelve places if they find a way to upset Notre Dame at Yankees Stadium.

This feels like a 'prove it' moment for the Black Knights who have not exactly had a lot of top wins through their unbeaten run, which has contributed to a relatively low Ranking considering they have yet to lose.

The game plan won't take much to work out with the Black Knights looking to run, run and run some more when they have the ball in their hand. This is going to be the toughest Defensive Line that Army would have faced all season and you have to believe that the Bye Week to prepare for this game can only aid the Black Knights further as they look to not only establish the run, but to make sure this is a huge part of their day in New York.

Bryson Daily has had almost double the amount of yardage on the ground as he has throwing the ball from Quarter Back, but everything depends on the Line of Scrimmage and whether the Black Knights can push the Notre Dame Defensive Line out of position or give them a scheme that they do not recognise.

It is going to be a tough ask for Army all the same and containing this Notre Dame Offensive unit will be plenty challenging too.

Eight wins in a row have almost erased that painful loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies, but the Fighting Irish cannot afford another slip. They have scored at least 28 points in each win since scoring just 14 against the Huskies, and there is a fine balance to the play-calling on the Offensive side of the ball.

Much like when Army have the ball, the Line of Scrimmage is going to be all-important when Notre Dame are in position and the test for the Black Knights Defensive Line in stopping the run will surpass any they have faced this season. The Fighting Irish have ripped open some big gains on the ground and the talent edge is with Notre Dame, which should show up here.

Riley Leonard has offered some dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, although he is much more likely to build up the yardage behind his arm rather than his legs.

What has to be expected from this game is that Leonard and the Notre Dame passing game should be able to exploit some of the holes in the Army Secondary. That will be much more difficult for Bryson Daily at Quarter Back for Army, and that balance should allow Notre Dame to push past this unbeaten opponent in the grand setting of Yankees Stadium.

Notre Dame have been impressing the Playoff Committee by now only winning games, but by doing so by wide margins. That has also made them a very productive favourite to back when it comes to the spread since that upset loss to the Huskies and the Fighting Irish should put up another impressive victory to maintain their push towards the twelve team Playoff coming up next month.


SMU Mustangs @ Virginia Cavaliers Pick: Seven wins in a row have kept the SMU Mustangs (9-1) on track for a place in the ACC Championship Game in their first season in this Conference.

Head Coach Rhett Lashlee will not be concerning himself with the Number 13 placing given to the SMU Mustangs in the latest Playoff Rankings. Instead he will be reminding his team that winning out and becoming ACC Champion would likely end with a Bye through the First Round of the post-season and especially as the Championship Game is likely going to be against the Miami Hurricanes, who are still at Number 8.

The Mustangs have shown character when needed during their seven game winning run and that is highlighted by some close wins. However, twice in this run the Mustangs have won as the outright underdog and those are the kinds of wins that build confidence and will have players believing in everything the Coaching staff as asking them to do.

Next up is the last road game in the regular season when SMU travel to face the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) who are still in need of one more win to become Bowl eligible. Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a game that looked much closer on the scoreboard than it actually was and that means Virginia have lost four of their last five games.

One of those was against the Clemson Tigers and the Cavaliers have also gone down to Louisville and North Carolina.

Turnovers have been an issue and five in the first half against the Fighting Irish meant it was never going to be a competitive outing for Virginia. Head Coach Tony Elliot is hoping his team can be much more careful with the ball as they look to upset the SMU Mustangs hopes for the season, while there is also some real uncertainty about the Quarter Back position.

Whoever lines up at the position will have a good match up against a SMU Secondary that has given up plenty of yards of late. Of course teams have been chasing the Mustangs and have been forced to take to the air, but there is a chance to impress for the Virginia Quarter Back.

However, the problem for the Cavaliers is that they have been one-dimensional Offensively with the team struggling to establish the run. This has really exposed the failings of the Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, which in turn meant a Quarter Back under pressure has made mistakes when trying to throw down the field.

The Mustangs Defensive Line have played well in recent games and they have been able to put up plenty of hits on the opposition Quarter Back so the match up will feel a decent one for them on this side of the ball.

Of course it is the SMU Offensive unit that has really pushed the momentum behind the team and they will be relying on Kevin Jennings and his playmakers to keep the team on track to reach the ACC Championship Game.

Like so many of the top teams in College Football who are chasing berths in the Playoff, the Mustangs have been pretty well balanced Offensively. This Offensive Line will be able to establish the run against this Cavaliers team that has been struggling of late and that is only going to open things up for Jennings and the passing game to have plenty of success.

The Quarter Back has been well protected, while Virginia have struggled to really make an impact in the backfield having had issues stopping the run. This should allow Kevin Jennings to have another strong game, although he will have to be aware of the Virginia Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.

Extra possessions can be so important in these games, but the Mustangs are more likely to take advantage of those and the road team may just be able to produce another quality win on the road. In reality, we are down to that point of the season where merely winning is the most important goal for any team to achieve, but the Mustangs will want to remind the Playoff Committee of their abilities.

In Week 12, Notre Dame crushed Virginia at home, but SMU can do enough on the road to perhaps not reach the same margin of victory, but to win by double digits and ensure they cover and maintain their place in line for a spot in the ACC Championship Game.


Mississippi Rebels @ Florida Gators Pick: There are six SEC teams that are still in contention to reach the Championship Game in the Conference and a number of them have two losses on the board already. In previous years the ambition would still have been to reach the Conference Championship Game regardless, but there has been open talk in and around the SEC that it would be better for a two loss team to win out and hope to miss out on playing that Championship Game knowing a loss would almost certainly mean they miss out on the College Football Playoff.

Right now the two loss teams in the SEC have been given plenty of respect with those four being placed between Number 7 and 11 in the latest College Football Rankings. While other Conferences are likely going to be punished for multiple defeats, the SEC are going to be given plenty of respect for the level of competition that their top teams have taken on in the regular season.

The Mississippi Rebels (8-2) are currently the Number 9 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings and Head Coach Lane Kiffin has been speaking about the predicament that a two loss team reaching the SEC Championship Game brings. Instead of being respected for making it that far, losing would likely mean elimination from the Playoff and Kiffin and the Rebels want to be involved.

Of course they cannot let the focus slip knowing a loss in either of their remaining two Conference games would likely mean elimination too.

First up is the Florida Gators (5-5) who have a 3-4 record when playing within the SEC, but who are playing behind an upset of the LSU Tigers.

Motivation for the Gators begins with trying to earn Bowl eligibility first and foremost and this is the final home game of the season, which is going to be a big day for some of the seniors. DJ Lagway being back at Quarter Back was a huge boost for Florida who had been blown out by the Texas Longhorns without him, and there is a confidence about Lagway that has to be respected.

Much of the pressure is going to be on the shoulders of DJ Lagway because it has been very tough to run against the Rebels Defensive Line all season. That does not mean Lagway cannot have success considering the inconsistent play of the Mississippi Secondary, but will also mean that the Quarter Back will need to be well aware of the pass rush pressure that the road team have put together in recent outings.

Sacks have been produced at a high rate and it could lead to a mistake or two from the Florida Quarter Back, which could be key in determining the direction of this game. DJ Lagway has played with a lot of belief and that can be hard to shake, but this Rebels Defensive unit will look to make Florida a little one-dimensional and then further that pressure through the strong Offensive play that Mississippi have been able to produce.

Jaxson Dart has really been playing at a high level at Quarter Back and showing off the experience he has built up in College Football and he has been a key part of the three game winning run that the Rebels are riding. His arm has been very important considering some of the inconsistent performances produced when it comes to running the ball, although the Rebels may have a bit more success against this Florida Defensive Line.

More exciting for the fans of the Quarter Back is seeing some of the big yards that the Gators have allowed through the air in recent games and Jaxson Dart is playing well enough to capitalise. There is every chance that Tre Harris is also going to be back on the field after missing the three game winning run through injury and the Wide Receiver is close to cracking the 1000 Receiving mark despite the run of absences.

The Rebels Offensive Line have been stronger in pass protection than run blocking in recent outings and Jaxson Dart can just remind the Playoff Committee of the talent that this Mississippi team possess.

These two SEC teams have not met since 2020 when the Gators blew out the Mississippi Rebels on the road, which will still give the road favourites motivation here.

Florida have to be credited for showing plenty of competitiveness, even in defeats, before the blow out to the Texas Longhorns. However, they were beaten by 13 points by Texas A&M and 14 points by Georgia Bulldogs and the feeling is that the Rebels can match those margins in this big Week 13 game.


Vanderbilt Commodores @ LSU Tigers Pick: He came in with a big contract signed, but Head Coach Brian Kelly is under immense pressure at the LSU Tigers (6-4). Six teams are still firmly involved in the race to reach the College Football Playoff from within the SEC, but it is a real disappointment for all associated with LSU that they are not one of them with a 3-3 record within the Conference.

They had begun with three SEC wins, but the Tigers have now lost three in a row to the Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. All of those defeats have been by double digits to end LSU's hopes of making the Playoff, while some of the sideline issues involving Brian Kelly and a couple of the players have gone viral.

The Tigers host the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) who hold the same record as LSU, but who will be feeling much more positive about their record compared with the home team. The Commodores have lost two of their last three SEC games, but they still have a 3-3 record within the Conference, while the upset over Alabama will live long in the memory for all of the fans who attended.

Diego Pavia has played well at Quarter Back for Vanderbilt and the team are coming out of a Bye Week, which has given Pavia the time that should see him overcome his issue and start in Week 13. Others have also used the time to make sure they are ready to play in this big road game as Vanderbilt look for another upset and having key players available is a big boost.

The key on this side of the ball for the Commodores is going to be finding a way to exploit the big problems that the Tigers Defensive Line have had in stopping the run. In recent games, Vanderbilt have not exactly been very consistent when it comes to running the ball and so the battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be key for both teams.

The Quarter Back has offered a dual-threat out of the position so the Commodores could look to Diego Pavia to move the ball on the ground to open up the passing lanes. He has been a pretty efficient passer for much of the season, but Pavia has just struggled in recent games with the injury potentially restricting his performance.

Throwing against this Tigers Secondary will be challenging if Pavia is being forced to make plays from behind the chains, but having the Quarter Back available will give Vanderbilt the opportunity to make some big plays on the ground.

Running the ball will be a struggle for the LSU Tigers in this game too, although they may feel the competition being faced is a step down compared with the teams beaten in the three game losing streak. Even then, the Tigers have not been able to break the big runs and this is a Vanderbilt Defensive Line that has been the strength of the team this side of the ball.

It has placed more pressure on Garrett Nussmeier at Quarter Back and he has had an inconsistent season to say the least. 22 Touchdown passes have come with 11 Interceptions and there will be further pressure on Nussmeier to show what he can do after a highly rated Quarter Back recruit changed his mind and flipped his commitment from LSU to Michigan.

Garrett Nussmeier is at least throwing against a Vanderbilt Secondary that has been struggling to deal with the pass, although the Quarter Back will not have a lot of time in the pocket if the team are not able to establish the run. This could lead to turnovers, which could spark an upset for the road team, and it looks like it could be a tough evening for LSU.

However, they are playing under the lights and this is a team with something to prove, which should at least give LSU some motivation. Brian Kelly might be under pressure, and players could easily lose focus with a season that has unravelled, but the Commodores have also been playing without the intensity of earlier this season.

Injuries are hurting the road team and that may be the key for LSU to earn a win and a rare cover against the spread.


Colorado Buffaloes @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: With two weeks left in the regular season, the surprising 2024 Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) have been set as favourites to win the Big 12, which should also come with a Playoff spot. That will mean winning out and then winning the Big 12 Championship Game, but the momentum is with the Colorado Buffaloes, although they are facing a tough road game in Week 13.

Arrowhead, the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, will be the venue when the Buffaloes travel to face the Kansas Jayhawks (4-6). There has to be plenty of respect for a team that has won three of their last four games to just about keep their Bowl bid alive after a miserable run to open the season, while that respect deepens when noting that the Kansas Jayhawks upset the BYU Cougars last time out.

That win ended the unbeaten hopes of the Cougars, while also knocking them out of the current top twelve in the Playoff Rankings so Head Coach Deion Sanders will be reminding his players of the threat that will be offered by the home team.

A number of the big name Colorado players have to be excited about playing in a NFL Stadium with that likely to be in their future once Draft Day passes. Impressing in such a setting may just boost the Buffaloes Ranking, which is currently Number 16, and you do have to believe that Sanders and his team will feel a little disrespected in their current positioning having won four games in a row since losing narrowly to the Kansas State Wildcats.

Colorado have been heavily relying on the arm of Shedeur Sanders as they have continued to struggle to run the ball, but even knowing what to come has not made life any easier for Defensive units facing this Buffaloes team. He is not the dual-threat that some Quarter Backs are, but Sanders is likely to be the first name called out in the next NFL Draft having thrown for over 3200 passing yards with 27 Touchdowns and just 7 Interceptions.

His life would be all the easier if the Buffaloes Offensive Line could help establish the run, but that has been an issue all season and even facing this Kansas Defensive Line is not expected to change those fortunes. It is not going to really impact the play of Shedeur Sanders though, especially with the Jayhawks Secondary giving up plenty of yards through the air and the Buffaloes are expected to keep the chains moving.

Deion Sanders is demanding more from his team, despite the strong run, and he will certainly expect a challenging test from the Jayhawks.

Much like when the Buffaloes have the ball, it may be tough for Kansas to really look to the run to set up the pass, even if the Offensive Line has been playing well. The Colorado Defensive Line have played really well when it comes to the run during their winning streak and they will certainly believe they are capable of at least containing the Jayhawks on the ground with their strengths at the Line of Scrimmage.

The difference when it comes to running the ball is that the Jayhawks can call plays for Jalon Daniels at Quarter Back compared with the Buffaloes who know Shedeur Sanders is an effective passer. That is not to say that Daniels cannot have success throwing the ball, but he has yet to hit 2000 passing yards and 13 Touchdown passes with 10 Interceptions shows there is a marked difference between the Quarter Backs when it comes to throwing down the field.

Jalon Daniels can move around the pocket to give himself some time, but he will be hoping to be in third and manageable spots on the field to just ensure the Buffaloes pass rush is not able to have a big impact on the game. This ability to sense the pressure has helped with the pass protection though and Daniels will be able to exploit some holes in the Colorado Secondary, albeit with the potential danger of being turned over when he steps back to throw.

Turnovers are likely to be very important in this game, and a potentially big deciding factor considering where the line sits.

You do have a feeling that this game could come down to whichever teams possesses the ball last, but the Colorado Buffaloes have been playing with a lot of confidence right now and that may just see them edge to a success. The Kansas Jayhawks invested a lot into the upset of the BYU Cougars, but they were slightly fortunate too and will need the bounce of the ball to work in their favour to win this one.

Colorado look to have a slight talent edge and the team are playing with momentum right now, which can be hard to shake off. There is also some motivation from being placed outside the top twelve in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings and Deion Sanders can use that to inspire his team to an important road win and edge that much closer to participating in the Big 12 Championship Game.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Saturday, 23 November 2019

Boxing Picks 2019-Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz 2 (November 23rd)

I have been largely disappointed with my Boxing Picks in 2019, but it just goes to show it can be a difficult sport to produce a positive return from- there is no point predicting a fighter to win at 1.10 because I am not sure how much profit you are going to end up with when backing such a strong favourite.

It is certainly that much more difficult when you think of the amount of upsets we have seen in Boxing in 2019 and there is a real chance that we are going to see one or two more before the calendar year comes to a close.


On Saturday night we have a big night of Boxing as Callum Smith returns to the ring, while Deontay Wilder completes what we all hope will be the first of two big rematches to take place over the next several months.

I am looking for a strong weekend to get things moving back in a positive direction after the tough few months for the Picks.


Craig Glover vs Chris Billam-Smith
The chief support in Liverpool this evening is a Commonwealth Title bout in the Cruiserweight Division and there is no doubt that Craig Glover is going to have the majority of the support inside the Arena.

Tony Bellew manages Glover, and the Liverpudlian is back in a position to fight for a big Title just months after a shocking defeat in this very Arena.

An early stoppage will have raised some eyebrows and I think Glover is going to be tested very quickly by Chris Billam-Smith who impressed in a narrow defeat to Richard Riakporhe in July. You don't always know how a fighter will respond to a defeat, but Billam-Smith has to believe that his power is going to be enough to rattle the home fighter in this one.

Craig Glover does have some pop himself, but I am not sure he has fought at this level and I would fancy Billam-Smith to have a bit too much for him. At some point we are going to see the chin being tested and I just think Billam-Smith is a step above here.

The home fighter has plenty of pop himself and it could be a very fun fight to enjoy, but I will look for the favoured fighter to find the stoppage at some point in the Twelve Rounds to be competed.


Callum Smith vs John Ryder
For me Callum Smith is the Number 1 Super Middleweight in the World, but I also think this is a fighter that can't really stay in this Division for too much longer.

Ultimately Smith is chasing some big names to take on with a suspected date in 2020 where he will be headlining Anfield. The problem is that the majority of those are in and around 168 and I am not sure Smith will want to take on one of the top Light Heavyweights in that fight.

Instead you can make an easy case for taking on Chris Eubank Jr or having a Unification with Billy Joe Saunders, although any chance of tempting Canelo to Liverpool looks a long-shot to say the least.

None of that will matter if Smith can't handle the fight in front of him on Saturday when he takes on John Ryder who has won four in a row since losing on a Split Decision to Rocky Fielding. All credit has to be given to The Gorilla for forcing himself into this position to have a crack at the top fighter in his Division, but all of the attributes look to be in favour of the Champion and I can't see anything but an impressive Callum Smith win.

John Ryder has only been stopped once before, but Smith is a very big puncher and could break the heart and spirit before forcing a Stoppage. There are quite a few who believe this could be a very early night for Smith like it was when he crushed Fielding, but I think Ryder will show some resilience before being put away.

Having a small interest in Smith to win this at some point in the middle Rounds looks the call here and I imagine he will then mention the biggest fighters around his weight Division for a fight at Anfield next year.


Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz
Eighteen months ago Deontay Wilder and Luis Ortiz were involved in one of the best Heavyweight fights in recent years, but it is hard to imagine the rematch reaching that kind of level.

Now the Cuban is that much older and he has not looked like he has recovered his punch resistance since facing Wilder for the first time. I have to credit the shape in which Ortiz has gotten into at the 40 years old he is stated to be (most think Ortiz is older than that), but we can't ignore the fact that Wilder should be stronger having struggled with flu ahead of the first fight.

Deontay Wilder will know he has the power edge in this one and I was of the opinion that this would be a win for the American in fewer Rounds that were needed to win the first time around. I do think he will be a little careful early, but I don't think Wilder is someone who wants to warm into fights and he will look to detonate the big right hand whenever he gets a chance to do that.

This time I think we will see Wilder find the mark around the same time he did in the first fight, but the difference will be that the WBC Champion will not allow Ortiz off the hook. In that initial bout Wilder put Ortiz down in the Fifth Round and I think the play here has to be backing Deontay Wilder to win anywhere between the Fifth and Eighth Round.

There have been some who think this could be another Dominic Breazeale moment, but I think Ortiz will be respected for the first couple of Rounds by Wilder. I do think Wilder will then start motoring through the gears and he can push ahead and find the winning shots at some point through the middle of this Championship Bout as Ortiz perhaps loses his gas tank a bit earlier than eighteen months ago.


MY PICKS: Chris Billam-Smith to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Callum Smith to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.20 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Deontay Wilder to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing Picks 2019: 22-46, - 1.39 Units (105 Units Staked, - 1.32% Yield)

Friday, 22 November 2019

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (November 23-25)

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year has come and gone and we have been given the twenty nations that will definitely be playing at the next European Championships which begin in June 2020.

Before this month comes to a close the draw for the Finals will be made and that will be of huge interest to fans of England and Wales. Before that the Play Off draw is also made as the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland look to make the most of the reprieves they have been given after failing to finish in the top two of their respective Qualifying Groups.


Having a major international tournament coming up in the summer is obviously going to be exciting, but that is for another day for most players. The focus now will be getting ready to enter what is always a very hectic part of the English Football calendar as most Premier League teams will be ready to play nine games in the top flight before the FA Cup Third Round over the first weekend of January.

During that time the top teams will have two more European Champions League/Europa League Group games to negotiate as well as the Quarter Final of the League Cup. Watch out for rotations and injuries becoming a major factor at this time of the season with teams looking to make sure they don't lose any momentum in a period where matches are played every few days.

That is difficult for the managers to negotiate and also for all the Fantasy Football players that will be looking to make some hay during this time of the season. I would definitely keep an eye on deadlines for transfers with limited time between games to pick up information and it is going to be a tough time for all.


In this thread you will see my Picks from the latest round of fixtures and I will then move onto GW13 and my Fantasy thoughts out of the international break.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Things can change very quickly in football and proof of that came in North London this past week as Jose Mourinho takes over from Mauricio Pochettino as manager of Tottenham Hotspur.

Within the space of twelve hours Tottenham Hotspur made the decisions that have taken over all of the headlines in England. Whether this is the correct decision will be seen in the months and years ahead, but Tottenham Hotspur have an underachieving squad that should quickly pick up under new guidance.

A toxic environment seems to have been partly the reason for Pochettino to be moved on months after reaching the Champions League Final. We saw at Manchester United last December that teams can quickly turn their form around when the manager has been replaced and I think we could see that with Tottenham Hotspur too.

Winning in East London won't be easy, but West Ham United have been in miserable form and this looks as good an opportunity for Tottenham Hotspur to snap their poor away run as they could have hoped for. Spurs have won on their last three visits to the London Stadium and this is a team who have the goals within the squad to hurt a West Ham United team who are defending poorly.

West Ham United might feel they can create chances of their own considering the performances of Tottenham Hotspur away from home, but I think the new voice is going to get off to a positive start.

Jose Mourinho suffered an embarrassing loss when he took Manchester United to the London Stadium last season, but I think this squad is capable of turning around their form very quickly. The price has shrunk for an away win as soon as the news came out about the Mauricio Pochettino sacking, but I think Tottenham Hotspur can be backed.

At odds against you can back Spurs to win a game featuring at least two goals and I think that is a good price considering I feel the away team will need at least two goals to win here.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: On the face of things you can understand why Arsenal are such favourites to beat Southampton on Saturday, but it is not easy to trust the home team on their current form.

No wins in 5 games in all competitions have just increased the pressure on Unai Emery as manager of the club, while Arsenal have found it difficult to blow teams away even at home.

Back to back teams have visited the Emirates Stadium and come away with a point so there will be some belief in the Southampton squad. However they have also been having some difficulties in finding positive results despite being a competitive team outside of the stunning 0-9 defeat to Leicester City.

Ralph Hasenhuttl is another manager feeling the pressure at the moment, but his team have been more competitive away from home. They had the lead at Manchester City in the Premier League earlier this month and have scored in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea in the League this season.

The Saints can definitely play their part here, but Arsenal should have too much for them when it is all said and done. I can't really back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap on their current form, but they can win a game featuring two or more goals and that is the selection here.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: If there is one team in the Premier League I have yet to really get to grips with it is Wolves and that is largely down to the fact that the team doesn't score a lot of goals, but also doesn't concede a lot either.

For the majority of the season that has meant me moving past their games even though Wolves secured a winner when earning a draw at Arsenal earlier this month.

This is a difficult looking game out of the international break, although I do think Bournemouth have been dented by the injury suffered by Josh King. A team who have not been as free-flowing in the final third as in recent years can ill-afford another attacking absentee, but Bournemouth have to be respected for the strength they have shown defensively this season.

It makes this a tough game to really have a good feel for and I think there are better options out there.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: I had little doubt that Brendan Rodgers could guide Leicester City to the best of the rest position outside of the top six at the beginning of the season, but even I have to be surprised by how much they have pushed on. This was a team I felt were a dark horse for a top four spot when you think of the issues the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea had coming into the season, but Leicester City have been stronger than anyone could have really believed.

They are big favourites to keep their positive run going when travelling to Brighton on Saturday and I am sure there will be plenty ready to back The Foxes here.

However I am a little cautious because Brighton have been very good at home under Graham Potter. They won't be afraid to attack Leicester City and can also hurt them on the counter attack too and I think this could be a close match.

Aaron Connelly's injury is a blow for the home team, but Leicester City are a team grabbing the headlines which makes them plenty short in the market. They may well win here and keep the momentum going, but I have to give this one a watching brief.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: Over the next few weeks Liverpool could really take a firm grip on the Premier League title race as they manage a good looking fixture list at a time when Manchester City have to play the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal.

Jurgen Klopp doesn't need to worry about what other clubs are doing if his Liverpool team keep winning and they should be good enough to see off a Crystal Palace team who have struggled in recent weeks.

Those struggles have come at a time when Crystal Palace have faced a number of teams inside the top six and the back to back losses to Manchester City and Leicester City at home shows the kind of ceiling this team have.

If Wilfried Zaha is not fit to play then it makes things all the more difficult for Crystal Palace and that is even accounting for the fact that Mohamed Salah may not be available.

At this stage of the season I do think we already have a clear favourite for the Premier League title and Liverpool have continued to find big results through difficult times. They have goals in the side and Crystal Palace struggle in the final third which should mean a sixth straight win for The Reds at Selhurst Park.

Backing Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap is difficult because this is a team who seem to do just enough to secure the points on their travels. Only one of their five away Premier League wins have come by more than a single goal margin and that is going to be needed to win on the Asian Handicap.

Instead backing Liverpool to win a game featuring two or more goals looks the best angle in this Premier League game.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Earlier this month I mentioned that Brighton looked very short to beat Norwich City in the Premier League, but they were comfortable winners and it seems more and more likely that the latter are simply not up to the standards of the Premier League.

That could change with some huge investment in January, but Norwich City have to make sure they are still in touch with the teams above them at that time.

We have the busy festive period coming up first and Norwich City have looked short of the quality needed at both ends of the field. They have particularly struggled away from home and all 5 losses have come by at least two goal margins.

Everton can match those results as they have proven to be a much better team at home than on their travels. The win at Southampton should be a boost in confidence the players might need and Everton should have the majority of the play in this one.

I do sometimes worry about the ability of a team like Everton to break down a side they should be beating. They also don't have the best record against Norwich City in recent years, but I can't ignore how poorly Norwich City have been defending and I think that shows up here.

Backing Everton to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick.


Watford v Burnley Pick: A win over Norwich City will have given Watford Football Club a big lift, but the international break could not have come at a worse time.

They are favoured to beat Burnley this weekend, but I don't really want to oppose Sean Dyche's men who have made it a habit to surprise in fixtures like this one.

Both teams scoring would not be a big surprise, but the fixture is one that will turn on the first goal and I am not prepared to guess which may that goes. I can make a case for all three results in this fixture, although with a gun to my head I would likely pick a 1-1 draw.

Luckily for me I am not being forced to put any units down on this one and so I will move onto the late Saturday kick off.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The headlines this Premier League weekend might be all about the return of Jose Mourinho, but Manchester City versus Chelsea is the big game in this round of fixtures.

Manchester City are looking to bounce back from the 3-1 loss at Anfield which leaves them 9 points off the leaders, but this is a club who have responded to setbacks under Pep Guardiola. The manager will know his team need a long winning run to see if they can at least pressurise Liverpool into mistakes and Manchester City have been very strong at home.

Wolves won here though and Chelsea won't be intimidated by the task in hand with their young players seemingly thriving when playing away from home. The Blues have won 7 away games in a row including twice in the Champions League and Frank Lampard won't want to shift too far from his principles to make sure Chelsea threaten Manchester City way more than they did under Antonio Conte or Maurizio Sarri.

Last season Chelsea were hammered 6-0 here, but Lampard's team have been scoring goals for fun away from Stamford Bridge.

They will feel they can hurt a Manchester City who have looked vulnerable at the back ever since Aymeric Laporte went down with an injury and they have to be respected. However I think it is difficult to ignore the fact that Chelsea have lost twice to Manchester United, once to Liverpool and drawn with Leicester City so far this season.

Even 5th placed Sheffield United earned a draw with Chelsea and I do think Frank Lampard's team have struggled against the top teams. Chelsea did win at Ajax, but The Blues were 1-4 down at home before their hosts were reduced to nine men and I think Manchester City will prove to be too strong on the day.

Backing Manchester City to win the game and cover the Handicap in a high-scoring game looks to be the play here.


Sheffield United v Manchester United Pick: There is one Premier League game being played on Super Sunday this week and it looks an intriguing one between Sheffield United and Manchester United.

On the face of things you would likely expect a low-scoring, tough to read match and in all honesty Sheffield United look a very big price to win the game when you think of how they have played this season.

Sheffield United have beaten Arsenal here already, while Liverpool needed some luck to win thanks to a mistake from Dean Henderson. The goalkeeper has largely been effective for Sheffield United though and his absence this weekend is a blow for Chris Wilder who has a preferred eleven in his thoughts.

That absence could make Sheffield United a little more vulnerable to the Manchester United attack which has come to life in recent games. After struggling for goals, the return of Anthony Martial has just sparked things for Manchester United and they have now scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions.

Chances are being created too and I do think the front three of Martial, Marcus Rashford and Daniel James can cause problems here.

In saying that I also think Sheffield United will be effective going forward thanks to the style employed by Chris Wilder. They don't score a lot of goals, but Sheffield United do create chances too and I think the layers might be underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals shared out this Sunday.

Goals might not have been flowing at Bramall Lane, but I think that could potentially change if teams continue to create chances at both ends like we have seen. Better finishing will see different results from what we have seen so far this season and I think that could potentially begin this weekend.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the play.


Aston Villa v Newcastle United Pick: The final match of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park as Aston Villa host Newcastle United in a big game for both clubs.

Dean Smith and Steve Bruce will recognise the importance of picking up points from fixtures like this one for Aston Villa and Newcastle United respectively in the fight to avoid the drop.

Both teams were playing well enough prior to the international break to think this could be a good game of football for the neutrals to enjoy. Aston Villa have proven to be strong at home, but Newcastle United have just found an identity to produce goals and I can see the two teams scoring in this one.

Much of that is down to Aston Villa being a solid attacking team, but one that has allowed too many chances throughout the course of the season. It should mean Newcastle United can be in a position to work some good openings in this match, but holding out against Aston Villa won't be easy for a team who have lost 66% of their away games played this season.

Aston Villa look like a team that will be involved in some higher scoring games throughout the season with their current approach. However they will believe they can win plenty of games if they perform as they have been and I give them a narrow edge in this one.

My bigger feeling is that this game will feature at least three goals shared out though and that is the approach I am going to have to this fixture. At close to odds against quotes I believe backing goals is the best way forward in this fixture.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Aston Villa-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November 2019/20: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)




Fantasy Football GameWeek 13
The last international break of the 2019 calendar year is now behind us and there are plenty of Fantasy Football decisions to be made in the coming days and weeks.

Remember this is the time of the year when games come thick and fast which means multiple GameWeeks are also scheduled to be played. It does mean you should be looking to make some long-term decisions (those that will take you through until the change of the calendar year), while I would also make sure you are happy with your bench option at a time when rotations are going to be made by the managers.

I picked up 68 points in GameWeek 12 which is a decent enough return and above the average of the week. My Captain also put in a good effort too, but you can read the changes I have been forced to make to my team in GW13 when you read further below.

Before that I have a few thoughts about teams that seem to be in vogue at the moment and those that might be ready to have us join a potential bandwagon.


Leicester City- fantasy players have been falling over themselves to bring in Leicester City squad members into their teams thanks to a 4 game winning run.

Many of their assets have increased in value and I don't think you can be put off by what looks a generous fixture list over the next four GWs.

I have two players, but I still believe it is not worth adding a third. Jamie Vardy is in great form, but I continue to look past him as some of the underlying stats are simply not making great reading. He is someone who can over-perform expectations, but I do think all the value is gone and going with a midfielder and a defender is good enough.

James Maddison is still the midfielder I would target if I was playing from scratch, although I am happy enough with Youri Tielemans.


Arsenal- Unai Emery's uncertain position as manager does make it hard to really trust Arsenal assets, but I do think this is a good time for them to make some hay.

The fixture list looks very kind in the weeks ahead and I really like Alexandre Lacazette at a price which is below Roberto Firmino and Jamie Vardy's in the FPL game. He is usually the main centre forward when getting a start for Arsenal and the shot count underlines that.

Injuries do leave him more open to rotation which is a concern, but I think Lacazette will enjoy games against Southampton, Norwich City, Brighton and West Ham United.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is another choice, but he is largely played out on the left when Lacazette plays, while I would have a second look at Nicolas Pepe too.


Tottenham Hotspur- I doubt this has gotten past anyone, but Jose Mourinho is back in the Premier League and takes over a Tottenham Hotspur team who have been underperforming to say the least.

It is going to be interesting to see how Tottenham Hotspur line up under Mourinho, but I would expect to see an improvement defensively so those assets could be worth bringing back.

Harry Kane had been playing deeper than we have become accustomed to under Mauricio Pochettino, but he is another I fully expect to be back in a more standard Number 9 spot and this is a team I am keeping a close eye on. After the Manchester United game in early December I think I will be using some Spurs players with a more manageable fixture list to come.


Crystal Palace- I know they have been in poor form, but don't ignore the fixture list Crystal Palace have been involved in.

They finish up their run of matches against top six clubs this weekend and this is a club that looks to have a generous run until January after that.

Jordan Ayew, Wilfried Zaha and a couple of defenders have to be on the potential shortlist to bring into the squad.


My GameWeek 13 Team
Injuries have just been getting the better of my Fantasy team in recent weeks and that forced me into making the change from Ederson to David De Gea two weeks ago.

The international break wasn't very kind to my team with doubts about Andrew Robertson and both Callum Hudson-Odoi and Josh King also suffering.

I really don't want to take a hit right now and so I have to try and manage what transfers I can make and that means going into GW13 with a potential of being short of a starting XI.

There had to be at least one transfer used this week to try and avoid that fate, but I have a clear plan in place and that means I am not going to be too rush right now.


David De Gea- Manchester United seemingly concede whenever put under any kind of pressure, but the goalkeeper remains in place.

Andrew Robertson- another team without as many clean sheets as I would have imagined at this stage of the season. Robertson still provides an attacking threat and may be able to shake off an ankle injury in time for this one.

Benjamin Mendy- he was surprisingly a healthy scratch against Liverpool, but Manchester City's defensive performance was far from ideal. The Frenchman could be back in the starting line up this week.

Caglar Soyuncu- Brighton away is far from easy, but Leicester City have three clean sheets in a row.

John Lundstram- I think the game against Manchester United might be more eventful than what the layers believe. Using Lundstram means having a midfielder rather than the designated defender he is.

Anthony Martial- the Manchester United Number 9 has sparked a return to scoring goals for the club.

Sadio Mane- in the form Mane is in, you can't afford to be without him.

Raheem Sterling (C)- it wasn't the best international break for Sterling having got into it with Joe Gomez which led to a one game suspension. Should mean the England winger is fresh enough for this one and I am going to Captain him in what could be a high-scoring game against Chelsea.

Youri Tielemans- a tough game at Brighton, but Tielemans with every chance of an assist or a goal.

Andreas Pereira- this will surprise many, including those who I speak to about Manchester United on a regular basis, but Andreas Pereira is going to be starting more often than not while Paul Pogba is out.

In the position he is being asked to play, Pereira is set for potential returns in goals and assists even if he is not the long-term answer for United fans. With the games coming up, he looks a no brainer for me and being a lot cheaper than Callum Hudson-Odoi.

Tammy Abraham- Chelsea should head to the Etihad Stadium with more ambition than the last two managers. With the home team looking vulnerable defensively, I don't mind playing Abraham (although I don't have a lot of choices).


Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyaki Tomori (playing at Manchester City, but also my only fit sub), Josh King (injured), Xande Silva (injured).