Tennis Picks 2021- ATP Finals (November 21st)

The final Singles match of any importance of the 2021 Tennis Tour will be played on Sunday as the ATP Finals tournament Champion is decided for another season.

This has all the makings of a really good match to decide the Champion and it is a rematch of an earlier Group match which was won by Daniil Medvedev.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It was the closest match of the week for Daniil Medvedev, but he came through with a win over the opponent he is facing in the final match of  ATP Finals in Turin in 2021.

That gives the Russian a huge mental edge as he continues his recent dominance of Alexander Zverev and it was some loose play at big moments that made the first match closer than it perhaps should have been. Daniil Medvedev had a considerable edge on the serving numbers and he has looked much more impressive on his return in the last couple of matches as he has perhaps gotten used to the conditions at this new tournament.

However, Daniil Medvedev might need one more big effort to slow the momentum picked up by Alexander Zverev who has won two pressurised matches to earn his place in the Final. The win over Novak Djokovic will have really give Alexander Zverev plenty of belief, but the timing of that Semi Final is one that might be detrimental as the German tries to get one over his opponent.

Alexander Zverev was playing in the second Semi Final on Saturday and he needed almost two and a half hours to finally get past Novak Djokovic. That would have meant needing a huge physical and mental effort and I do wonder if he is going to be a little short of both when facing a steady Daniil Medvedev who had a straight-forward win in his own Semi Final against Casper Ruud much earlier in the day.

In the last couple of matches, Alexander Zverev has served much better, but Daniil Medvedev has been consistent behind that shot throughout the tournament. In his two toughest matches of the week, Zverev has struggled with his return and I do think that is going to make the difference between these two players in the Final, especially if Daniil Medvedev can build up some pressure with his return and steady groundstrokes.

When they met earlier this week, I mentioned the numbers behind the serve with Daniil Medvedev holding around 91% of his service games compared with Alexander Zverev at around 70% in their four meetings on the hard courts before Turin. It was Daniil Medvedev who earned the sole break of serve when the two met in the Group and I think the Russian player is in the better form, while the additional rest on Saturday should serve him well for this Final.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)

ATP Finals: 7-2, + 9.12 Units (18 Units Staked, + 50.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021- ATP Finals (November 20th)

The ATP Finals have gotten down to the final four players and both Semi Final matches are set to be played today.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Casper Ruud: Winning a Group with a perfect record will give Daniil Medvedev plenty of confidence going into Finals Weekend at the ATP Finals. He is a previous Champion of this event, but the move to Turin has meant dealing with different conditions, although the US Open Champion has looked pretty good in the tournament.

The serve has been a major weapon for Daniil Medvedev and the key to winning all three matches, although he has been forced to dig deep in each match played. All three have needed a final set decider, but the last two have both needed a final set tie-breaker and that means the Russian has spent plenty of time on the court.

At least he had Friday off to prepare for this Semi Final on the day that Casper Ruud had to come back from a set down to finally beat Andrey Rublev for the first time. That means a recovery from an opening match defeat to Novak Djokovic and in both wins this week, Casper Ruud has had to come from a set down to turn the match around and that is going to give him a mental boost.

He will have to improve markedly from what we have seen in the Group Stage of the tournament though- Casper Ruud won 12 fewer points than Andrey Rublev in his winner takes all battle against the Russian on Friday, while he was significantly down in both the service and return numbers compared with his opponent.

Now he has to take on another big serving Russian and one who has shown a lot more mental strength than Andrey Rublev who had been guilty of throwing the match away. Daniil Medvedev has been particularly impressive behind serve and looked to be getting to grips with his return a little more in the win over Jannik Sinner.

There have been moments of really good serving from Casper Ruud which will test Medvedev, but it should also be noted that the Norwegian has faced eleven break points in his win over Andrey Rublev. While serving well enough in the win over Cameron Norrie, the other two matches in the Group saw Casper Ruud fail to win more than 60% of the service points played and I do think Daniil Medvedev can match the margin of win that was recorded by Novak Djokovic over this opponent.

Daniil Medvedev has dominated their two previous matches and his serve has been a potent weapon in those wins over Casper Ruud. Earlier this season, Medvedev broke the Ruud serve five times on the grass courts in Mallorca, arguably the World Number 2's worst surface, and I think he is going to move through to another Final at the ATP Finals with a convincing win.

Novak Djokovic-Alexander Zverev over 22.5 games: You can't win the ATP Finals by dominating your Group, but you can certainly lay down a marker about your ambitions in those early matches. There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic has looked the strongest player by some distance in Turin and his numbers have been very, very impressive as he has won all three Group matches heading into the Semi Final.

It is no surprise that the layers are thinking Novak Djokovic is going to blow past another opponent when he takes on Alexander Zverev in this Semi Final, but this has proven to be a tough match up for the World Number 1. The point is underlined by the fact that Alexander Zverev beat Novak Djokovic in Tokyo and their match at the US Open also needed all five sets to separate them.

Four tough sets were needed at the Australian Open, which is Novak Djokovic's favourite Grand Slam, and the numbers actually back up how well Alexander Zverev has matched up with this opponent.

The big question for Alexander Zverev is whether he can serve well enough to push Novak Djokovic all the way in this one and perhaps even earn the upset. For the most part, his serve has been very effective in the conditions in Turin and it has resulted in the German being broken just once so far at the tournament.

Of course, Zverev has not really faced too many returners with the capabilities of Novak Djokovic who has had his eye firmly in while dominating his matches here. It can be pointed out that Novak Djokovic was in a relatively weak Group and now he has to really step up his level to compete with someone like Alexander Zverev.

The return has proven to make the slight difference in favour of Novak Djokovic more often than not against this opponent, but matches have rarely been straight-forward. I would not be surprised if the two players split the first two sets played and have to get through a decider to earn their spot in the Final and that is why I will look for the players to surpass the total games line.

Their last four matches have all seen both players win a set and all of those have been on the hard courts. Only the match in Tokyo resulted in some easy sets being won by the two players, but in general Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev have pushed each other into long matches and looks like being the outcome of this one too.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic-Alexander Zverev Over 22.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

College Football Week 12 Picks 2021 (November 20th)

The regular season is winding down in College Football and that means teams are jockeying for position to at least win a Conference Championship even if they are not going to be invited into the College Football PlayOff in December/January.

Very few issues have been decided going into Week 12 and there are some huge games to be played in the Conferences around the nation before the big Thanksgiving Weekend coming up.

After a winning week, I am looking to back that up with another with the regular season coming to a close over the next few days.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The PlayOff Committee didn't really like the Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) while they were unbeaten so a first defeat of the season has unsurprisingly seen them drop further in the Rankings. At this point, the Sooners are going to have to do something pretty special and require a lot of help to return to the PlayOffs and I honestly think they would be placed behind a two loss Alabama team even if they win the Big 12 Championship.

That is for another day and the Oklahoma Sooners are still in control of their own destiny going into Week 12 of the College Football regular season despite the loss to the Baylor Bears. It does make things a little more awkward than they could have been, but the Sooners know two wins will be enough to play in the Championship Game and give them at least one more chance to impress those picking the four teams to play out the National Championship.

Bedlam is coming up over Thanksgiving Weekend, but the Sooners first have to play the Iowa State Cyclones (6-4) who have virtually been eliminated from the Championship Game contention after the loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out. This has been a season of underachievement for the Cyclones, but they are Bowl eligible, they are one win away from a fourth consecutive winning record under Head Coach Matt Campbell and the Cyclones have given the Sooners plenty to think about in recent seasons and a win will give them a chance of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game in Week 13.

Iowa State can't be dismissed as the only team who have beaten the Oklahoma State Cowboys this season and they have plenty of talented players that should be respected.

The Cyclones have not played badly Offensively and that is what is going to make them dangerous, especially if the Oklahoma Sooners are as poor as they were on the Offensive side of the ball in their defeat to the Baylor Bears. Iowa State are going to be able to establish the run and that is only going to make life simpler for Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.

I expect him to target Charlie Kolar as much as he can before the Tight End heads to the NFL and the Cyclones should be able to move the ball with consistent success in this one, especially if the Sooners Defensive Line continues to struggle up front.

However, the Cyclones have lost four times this season and that is largely down to the experienced Defensive unit failing to match the intensity they produced in 2020 to lead the team to a 9-3 record. In recent games the Cyclones have allowed teams to find a real balance Offensively and that always spells trouble for teams no matter what level of Football they are playing at.

Lincoln Riley will be looking for his Sooners team to bounce back Offensively after a stunningly poor performance in the defeat to the Bears which saw him switch up his Quarter Back a couple of times to try and spark a reaction. Caleb Williams is expected to start the game and he has been strong for much of the season, so the feeling is that the Quarter Back can have a better game in Week 12 than he managed the last time we saw him.

Caleb Williams will also benefit from being at home where the fans are going to want to get behind him and I do think his ability to scramble around and make plays will benefit him in this match up. The Sooners should be able to establish the run against the Iowa State Defensive Line which has been allowing 4.4 yards per carry over their last three games, while the Cyclones Secondary have allowed too many big plays.

Both teams are coming in off a loss so the focus should not be an issue, while the Cyclones have to be respected with the way they have performed as an underdog. However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record and I do think the Oklahoma Sooners can get back on track in Norman.

Games between these schools have been competitive and I don't doubt that will be the case again, but Oklahoma's balance Offensively can provide the key to the win and they can cover this spread in a bid to try and impress the PlayOff Committee who have been anything but with the Sooners this season.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Their run as the dominant team in the ACC is very likely to be coming to a close at the end of this season, but the Clemson Tigers (7-3) can at least push their chances until the final week of the regular season. They are a couple of games behind the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1) in the ACC Atlantic Division, but a win here and another loss for Wake Forest and NC State would see Clemson climb into the Championship Game against all odds.

It has been a very difficult season for the Tigers who did not anticipate the fall off from 2020 despite Trevor Lawrence being Drafted as the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL. They have to be feeling better about themselves after three straight wins, but injuries have not really helped the Tigers in 2021, although it may set them up for a big 2022.

No one will be giving up on this season though and that means the Tigers have to be ready for one more big effort and to then shift the pressure onto their rivals around them in Week 13. The public are not convinced, but the sharp money has been on Clemson with the spread moving a little further in their direction.

You can't dispute how Wake Forest have played this season and they may even have an outside shot of reaching the PlayOff if they can win out. It will need some support from other teams, but the Demon Deacons are Ranked in the top ten and they have shown plenty of Offensive firepower that makes them tough to write off.

That Offensive output has to be massively respected, but the Clemson Tigers Defensive unit have played their part for a team that was expected to challenge for the National Championship again. While the Demon Deacons have overachieved, this is a massive test for them on the Offensive side of the ball and it would mean there is a lot of pressure on them to perform much better Defensively than they have shown.

A question is whether the young, injury hit Tigers can really expose those Defensive vulnerabilities that Wake Forest have displayed- while it has been possible to run the ball with some huge gains against the Demon Deacons Defensive Line, the Clemson Offensive Line have not really opened holes as they would have expected and that battle in the trenches is going to be all important.

Justyn Ross is expected to miss out for the home team and that leaves Clemson really inexperienced in the Receiving corps, but DJ Uiagalelei can at least finish up at home with a strong performance after an underwhelming year. The Tigers will benefit from a younger Offensive unit taking to the field and they are facing a Secondary which has given up some big plays.

The key to the outcome of this game remains on the other side of the ball where the Tigers continue to trot out one of the best Defensive units in College Football. Clemson's Defensive Line continues to be incredibly stout against the run and they have thrived in getting the pass rush going and getting after the Quarter Back which will make it a tough day for the Demon Deacons to have the kind of Offensive successes they have become used to in the 2021 season.

Sam Hartman had almost 300 passing yards and 3 Touchdown passes last week in the win over the NC State Wolfpack, but he also threw 3 Interceptions and those extra possessions could be devastating against a team like Clemson. The Tigers may not have the same Offensive power as we have been used to, but the Demon Deacons have struggled for stops and I think that is why I want to back the home team to cover what is a wide spread on paper.

Clemson have dominated this Divisional rival in recent seasons, albeit with a much stronger team than the 2021 edition, but the public are firmly behind the overachieving road underdog. I think that is ignoring the tough match up in front of the Demon Deacons who have struggled Defensively themselves and I think the Tigers can put in a big effort to win this game by a good margin.

That may not be enough to eventually compete in the ACC Championship Game, but the Tigers can lay down a marker for what they can achieve in the weeks and seasons ahead with a big win over the Divisional leader.

Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: It is very unlikely that there will be two teams heading to the College Football PlayOff from the Big Ten Conference, but things are still going to be shaken up over the last three weeks of the season. The regular season will come to a close after the top three in the Big Ten East having finished facing one another and determining which of the teams is set to play in the Championship Game.

The Michigan State Spartans and Ohio State Buckeyes are facing each other this week, but the Michigan Wolverines (9-1) can only control what is in front of them. The Buckeyes are a big favourite to beat the Spartans and, assuming that happens, it would mean the Wolverines are in control of their own destiny with two wins likely pushing them into the Big Ten Championship Game.

It has been some time since the Wolverines have played meaningful games in November, but the win over Penn State Nittany Lions means they have produced back to back wins since losing their sole game of the season to their rivals Michigan State. Michigan can ill-afford to overlook their opponent in Week 12 as that would effectively eliminate them from the PlayOff consideration, but they do look to be facing the Maryland Terrapins (5-5) at the right time.

Injuries have been piling up for the Terrapins who still need one more win to become Bowl eligible and who have lost five of their last six games. They fought pretty hard in Week 11, but the Terrapins were still beaten by 19 points on the road at the Michigan State Spartans and I do think the Michigan Wolverines are the better team despite the loss to their rivals.

The Maryland Terrapins have lost a couple more Receiving options ahead of this game and it would have been tough to move the ball against the Wolverines even if at full health. It all starts up front for the Wolverines who have a Defensive Line capable of dominating the line of scrimmage and forcing teams into third and long spots.

In recent games the Terrapins have continued to throw the ball with some success despite injuries in the Receiving areas, but this is a tough Secondary to play against. With a Defensive Line stopping the run with consistency, the Michigan pass rush has been able to pin back their ears and really get after the Quarter Back which has made it much easier for the Secondary to make big plays.

That should give the Wolverines a chance to pull away for a big win on the road and they have shown enough consistency Offensively to believe they will be able to do that. Cade McNamara has arguably been the best Quarter Back that Michigan have had under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh and I think he is going to have a very good game against the struggling Terrapins Secondary.

Blake Corum is expected to be ruled out, but Michigan should still be able to produce enough on the ground to keep the Terrapins honest and open things up for McNamara at Quarter Back.

Looking ahead could be a fatal mistake from Michigan, but I think they will be focused on Saturday as they finally have an important game to play in November. Since the upset to the Terrapins in 2014, Michigan have blown them out five times in a row including two years ago when these schools last played.

Michigan are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite, while Maryland have not covered in their last five as the underdog. Injuries are hurting a lot of teams at this stage of the season, but the Wolverines look better placed to deal with their absentees compared with Maryland and I will look for the road team to produce a big win.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: After the Auburn Tigers were beaten, the Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) would have to suffer a serious capitulation to not make it through to the SEC Championship Game. The team are still earning plenty of respect from the College Football PlayOff Committee, but another loss would be difficult for them to ignore and especially if that comes against either of their remaining two regular season opponents.

First up for the Crimson Tide is the final home game of the season against the Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3) and there will be a huge amount of respect for the job that Head Coach Sam Pittman is doing in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks only won three games in 2020, but they have more than doubled that and have secured a winning record for the first time since 2016.

Sam Pittman and his team should not be satisfied with that and they have three games remaining, assuming they will be selected for a Bowl Game after becoming eligible with their seven wins on the board. The Razorbacks need two wins to secure their most wins in a single season since 2011, while the chance to play spoiler has to be a motivation for a team who have won three in a row since losing their opening three Conference games.

A win would also mean the Razorbacks have an outside chance to win the SEC West, although a lot of things need to go their way to do that even if they can upset the Crimson Tide. No one associated with the team will be thinking of anything other than trying to upset their hosts in Tuscaloosa.

The Razorbacks don't really match up that well with the Alabama Defensive unit- the Crimson Tide have a Defensive Line which is very sure of themselves when it comes to stopping the run, while the Razorbacks really need to spark themselves on this side of the ball by being able to pound the rock on the ground.

Arkansas have continued to run the ball pretty well, but they were not able to score against the Georgia Bulldogs and I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success against the Crimson Tide on this side of the ball. Failing to be able to run the ball consistently will also mean KJ Jefferson has to deal with a vicious Alabama pass rush and that has been able to protect the Secondary. The Quarter Back has not really shown enough consistency throwing the ball to believe he can hurt Alabama over and over again in this one and I think the Razorbacks will have a hard time moving the ball throughout this game.

An opportunity for Arkansas to keep this game closer than some may expect will be determined by their own Defensive Line that has proven to be a stable part of this unit. They have been able to stop the run during the three game winning run and this Crimson Tide team have not been as strong in the rushing Offense as we have been used to seeing.

However, Bryce Young is playing at a really high level at the Quarter Back position and he has been very good at managing games. The fact he has 33 Touchdown passes with 3 Interceptions means he can do more than simply avoiding mistakes and Young should make some big plays against this Secondary, although being in third and long would see the Razorbacks come after him with some success.

Both have been pushed by the LSU Tigers and come away with narrow wins, but the Alabama Crimson Tide will have been preparing for this game for two weeks and I think that makes them very dangerous for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Blow outs in favour of the Crimson Tide have been common in the last four years between these schools and I do think they will want to build some momentum heading towards the expected massive showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.

Trends favour both teams, but Arkansas are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five SEC games and I think the Crimson Tide can produce a statement win that covers a huge spread.

MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Florida Gators - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baylor Bears + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-4, + 0.73 Units (9 Units Staked, + 8.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 9: 5-3, + 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, + 15.63% Yield)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.57 Units (8 Units Staked, - 32.13% Yield)

Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)

Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

2021 Season: 51-45-1, + 0.96 Units (97 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 12 2021 (November 20-21)

You wouldn't need more than one hand to count the number of times I have agreed with Jurgen Klopp and admitted to it, but I completely understand his feelings ahead of the return of the Premier League this weekend.

'I hate international breaks'.

His reasons are going to be different to mine, but the largely pointless World Cup Qualifiers are now in the books and it means the top clubs can get ready to embark on a very busy run through to the middle of January.

There is going to be another international break at the end of January, which is the return of the Winter Break for clubs in England's top flight, but between now and then there are going to be a mammoth TWELVE rounds of fixtures to be completed. That doesn't include the two European games that the top clubs in the Premier League will be faced with as well as the League Cup Quarter Final and Semi Final and the FA Cup Third Round all to be played.

Squads are going to be needed and the same can be said for those of us who are playing the Fantasy Football game. I will have a few more thoughts on that below, but first you can see what I think about the upcoming games in the Premier League this weekend.

Leicester City v Chelsea Pick: The last international break until January is now behind us and those playing in England are about to embark on a really intense part of the season. Over the coming six weeks, the Premier League title race could really see some twists and turns with games being played thick and fast.

Those involved in European competition and the League Cup Quarter Final have little time to breathe and the squads are going to need to be utilised to the maximin. It is a situation for both Brendan Rodgers and Thomas Tuchel to deal with, and both managers should be encouraged by the fact that their squads could be overcoming injury issues at just the right time.

It is key for both Leicester City and Chelsea who have plenty of big games to come over the coming weeks and it is important for the managers to see their team come out of the break with a big performance. Leicester City have not been in the best form of late with too many draws blighting their progress, while Chelsea will have been very disappointed after only securing a 1-1 draw with Burnley two weeks ago.

However, Chelsea have been very efficient away from home and they will feel that gives them an edge as they look for a positive response to the last Premier League fixture. They have not given up many chances and Chelsea have founded their success on being hard to break down, while Leicester City have failed to score in home defeats to Manchester City and Arsenal.

Chelsea may also have Romelu Lukaku back this week to lead the line and I do think they are going to be a little too good for their hosts.

Brendan Rodgers will feel his team can play a part, but Chelsea do not give teams a lot of encouragement and I would not be surprised if they can keep another clean sheet here. As good as Leicester City have been under Brendan Rodgers, they have been inconsistent this season and will potentially have to play without Youri Tielemens this weekend.

Jamie Vardy will be well rested and looking to exploit any tiredness in the Chelsea backline, but Leicester City have been inconsistent in the final third. They have been a little stronger at creating chances at home, but Chelsea should be able to hold them at arm's length and win a game that features fewer than four goals on the day.

Aston Villa v Brighton Pick: Things can change really quickly in football and just a little over a month after beating Manchester United at Old Trafford, Aston Villa were Sacking their manager Dean Smith.

They didn't really wait too long before announcing that Steven Gerrard had accepted the vacant job at Aston Villa after a strong tenure managing Rangers in the Scottish Premiership. It is a risky move for both the club and the manager as they look to come together and start moving away from the relegation zone.

A new manager bounce could be in play on Saturday and Gerrard may benefit from the squad returning from the international break looking healthier than when they went into the November break. Aston Villa have been underperforming, but Dean Smith had not been helped by the injuries and his new signings have yet to really settle in and replace Jack Grealish.

Steven Gerrard will have to find a way to get more from those players, but you have to imagine the atmosphere will give the squad another boost.

Aston Villa will have a tough outing against Brighton who have proven to be a difficult team to beat, but who can be vulnerable unless they find a way to be a little more productive in the final third. Earlier in the season they looked to have figured out the issues from last season, but once again Brighton have looked a team that will create chances without the consistency to take them.

It cost them two points in the home draw with Newcastle United and Brighton have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of their last 6 Premier League games. That did come in their last away game at Liverpool, but Brighton are hard to trust when they continue to lack a killer end product to their football.

They should be able to create chances at Villa Park considering what we have seen from the home team, but the new manager is someone who is keen on having a solid foundation. There hasn't been enough time to really imagine Steven Gerrard can have a serious impact on the defensive shape of Aston Villa just yet, but this feels the kind of game where the new manager bounce could really play out.

As inconsistent as Aston Villa have been and as much as the confidence will have been dented by the 5 game losing run, they are a team that has enough quality to score goals. Brighton will be without their first choice goalkeeper this week and I think Aston Villa will reward their new manager with a positive approach to produce a positive result this Saturday.

Burnley v Crystal Palace Pick: Neither of these teams will be considered as title challengers, but both have surprised leading clubs in the Premier League in the couple of weeks before the November international break.

Burnley weathered the storm to earn a 1-1 draw at Chelsea, but Crystal Palace did a little better all around when beating Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium the week prior to that.

No one will be that surprised to see Burnley picking up some big results under Sean Dyche and they look to be moving with some positive momentum behind them. The previous experiences under Sean Dyche suggested it would happen for Burnley if they remained patient, but Crystal Palace fans have to be pleasantly surprised by the early impact made by Patrick Vieira.

It is one thing if Vieira had come into Selhurst Park and just looked to operate in a similar way to Roy Hodgson, but the former Arsenal Captain has improved the football being played by Crystal Palace. He has been rewarded for that approach with some big results and Crystal Palace have been able to turn a few draws into the wins they have deserved.

The away record may not make for great reading, but Crystal Palace are arguably overachieving despite only earning 5 points from a possible 15 on their travels. Four of their five away games have been at the current top four in the Premier League and the other was a fixture at the much improved Arsenal so the points on the board show how well Crystal Palace are doing.

They have scored at least twice in 3 of their 5 away games and that attacking threat has to be a problem for Burnley. As much as the results have improved of late, Burnley have still been a team that allows teams to create chances against them and Crystal Palace have also got to be respected for the way they have performed defensively.

Burnley did snap their 14 game run without a home Premier League win when beating Brentford here in their last game at Turf Moor. However, Crystal Palace are playing with a lot more confidence than Brentford at the moment and this is a team who can create the chances to win at Turf Moor on Saturday.

Newcastle United v Brentford Pick: A new manager arrives at Newcastle United and the fans have to be hoping that Eddie Howe can spark an upturn in form for their struggling club. The future looks bright for Newcastle United, but there could be a delay to the good times if the club are relegated to the Championship.

The main task for Eddie Howe over the coming six weeks is to make sure his team are in touch with those clubs outside of the relegation zone. That is when Newcastle United can use the January transfer window to bring in some real quality to ensure they are not dropping out of the top flight.

Eddie Howe won't be fooled by the task in front of him, but he has experienced a relegation battle before and that may stand him in good stead with Newcastle United. There are also a number of players he would have worked with previously and the fixtures coming up in the next two weeks look very winnable on paper.

After the recent Brentford results, this is another fixture that the home team have to be targeting. Thomas Frank has seen his team lose some momentum with 4 straight Premier League defeats, but the performances have remained relatively strong and that will be important for a club that really uses the statistical side of the game to their benefit.

The worst of the recent performances has been the 3-1 defeat at Burnley and that is a concern for Brentford ahead of this game as they look to douse the enthusiasm that will likely build at St James' Park. That has been an exception rather than a rule for Brentford though and I do think they will cause plenty of problems for their hosts who have conceded goals for fun for much of this season.

With that in mind it is perhaps a surprise that Newcastle United have appointed someone like Eddie Howe whose Bournemouth team used to concede an alarming amount of goals in the Premier League. I think the manager will make use of some of the attacking quality in the squad, but Newcastle United could remain a work in progress defensively and I think Brentford are capable of exploiting that.

Losing their starting goalkeeper to an injury has put some doubt into the Brentford defensive performances too though and I think both teams can find the back of the net. Neither is likely going to be satisfied with a 1-1 result and I think that will mean two teams playing with attacking intent throughout much of the afternoon which could spark into a lively fixture.

Norwich City v Southampton Pick: There is an irony in the fact that the last time Dean Smith managed Aston Villa came in a fixture against Southampton and that is the same opponent that will be in front of his new team, Norwich City, when he takes charge of this team for the first time.

It will be interesting to see how much Dean Smith learned from that experience in the 1-0 defeat at St Mary's which ended up being the result that decided his future as Aston Villa manager. And it was surprising to see the manager jump straight back in with Norwich City who have so much work to do to even be competitive at this level.

Norwich City do have some momentum having beaten Brentford two weeks ago before Daniel Farke was Sacked, but they are a team that have struggled at both ends of the field. At least this week they are facing an opponent that has rarely been able to score multiple times within the same match, although Southampton have been pretty secure defensively and that has enabled them to win 3 of their last 4 League games.

However, they don't score a lot of goals and it should give Norwich City a chance of securing a result. They have played better here than their results would indicate and a new manager could see the squad just put in the extra effort to show they are capable of being trusted.

Two seasons ago, Southampton beat Norwich City easily here.

However, they had stronger and more consistent attacking options that day and one goal may be enough for Norwich City to get the Dean Smith era off to a positive start. It may not be good enough for the three points, but Norwich City may be able to secure at least a point against a Southampton team who have not travelled that well and who continue to struggle for goals.

Watford v Manchester United Pick: It speaks volumes that Manchester United have allowed Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to remain in charge of the club despite embarrassing 0-5 and 0-2 losses at Old Trafford to Liverpool and Manchester City. Clouded thinking has become the norm at Manchester United from the very top of the club and the fans are becoming increasingly frustrated at what they see as poor planning.

The match-going fans are very unlikely to turn on the manager, but that does not hide the fact that many of those have begun to give up on their current manager. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is much admired by the fans, but even the likes of David Moyes and Jose Mourinho were supported to the very end.

However, it would be foolish of the manager and the board to believe that the inconsistent performances can continue indefinitely. Losing half of their last 12 games in all competitions is a real worry, while Manchester United have needed goals inside the last nine minutes to even manage 3 wins.

Away form has been a little stronger than at Old Trafford and that is important for Solskjaer and the Manchester United team ahead of a very big week out of the November international break.

This looks the 'easiest' of the three away games to be played, but Manchester United have lost 2 of their last 4 visits to Vicarage Road and can ill-afford to take Watford lightly. Claudio Ranieri has yet to work his magic to full effect at Watford and his team have failed to score in 3 of their 4 League games under their new manager, but there have been one or two signs of defensive improvement in the last couple of games.

Watford are still looking for the balance between attack and defence, but they will feel there are gaps in the Manchester United defence that can be exploited if they are able to build momentum. They have rattled Manchester United in home games over recent years, but Watford have to be aware of their own frailties and this feels like a match in which both teams will have their moments of success.

The last fixture between these teams here ended 2-0 to Watford, but the 7 prior to that at Vicarage Road have all ended with at least three goals shared out. Neither team can be too confident of being able to keep the other out in this one and I think goals are likely to be the outcome of the fixture.

It is a vital game for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his Manchester United team, but they have looked far from sure of themselves of late and this has the makings of a 2-1 score... Which way? That's the question.

Wolves v West Ham United Pick: A stunning 3-2 home win over Liverpool has kept the good times rolling at West Ham United and they are now up to 3rd in the Premier League table and with a real belief they can earn a Champions League spot at the least.

Strong performances on the field in all competitions they have entered will excite the fans, but a potential new owner off the field could take West Ham United forward very quickly. David Moyes won't be worrying too much about the impact that will have for him and his transfer budget just yet, but instead he will be looking for his team to continue building the momentum in each passing match.

The manager will not want his team to drop their intensity, but it can be a challenge out of an international break and that is something that West Ham United will have to face head on. They have really enjoyed playing away from home and West Ham United have been creating a lot of chances and scoring plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous here.

In recent games Wolves have looked a touch more vulnerable defensively and I do think West Ham United can expose those with their attacking intent.

However, Wolves have also been in good form and they have recovered from a slow start to the season to move into the top eight. Losing to Crystal Palace will have hurt, but Wolves had won 4 of 5 Premier League games before that and they have won their last 2 League games at Molinuex.

Both of those wins have come in 2-1 scorelines and Wolves have looked like a team that have more of an attacking edge under their current manager, but one that is not as secure defensively as they were under Nuno Espirito Santo.

It could lead to an exciting game with both teams looking to get forward in numbers and I do think we will see at least three goals shared out on the day. My edge has to be with West Ham United who look to have more of a consistent threat outside of their Number 9, but Wolves can play their part and both teams are likely to hit the net in a relatively high-scoring game on Saturday.

Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: After a really poor August, Arsenal have been motoring up the League table over the last couple of months.

There have been some impressive performances and results in that time, most notably being the 0-2 victory at Leicester City, but Mikel Arteta is going to find out plenty about his team this weekend. This time Arsenal will be significant underdogs when they head to Anfield to take on a genuine title contender, but The Gunners may be visiting at the right time.

Injuries have hurt Liverpool throughout the squad and they look like they could be down another couple of players after international duty. The squad is being stretched again and Liverpool have looked a little vulnerable of late, even if those cracks were papered over in the big win at Manchester United.

In their last couple of Premier League games, Liverpool have conceded five goals to Brighton and West Ham United and that is a major concern for them. They could be without Andrew Robertson this weekend too, while they are likely down at least one key midfielder too.

It gives Arsenal a chance here, but they will have to be careful with their defensive performance regardless of what their results may tell you. Arsenal have been earning clean sheets, but Leicester City and Burnley have created good chances against them and Liverpool are the form team in the Premier League when it comes to attacking output.

Sadio Mane would be a big absentee to add to Roberto Firmino and that is the one worry for Liverpool, but Mohamed Salah is available and should be good to go. He has played like the best player in the world and Salah has scored plenty of goals against Arsenal, as he has against most teams he faces.

Liverpool have been very creative at home and they are scoring goals for fun no matter where they play, so it is a big test for Arsenal and where they are at with their own football. The young players have performed without any fear, which makes Arsenal dangerous, but they might not be able to weather the Anfield atmosphere in the late kick off and Liverpool have largely dominated Arsenal in recent years.

In home games in the Premier League, Liverpool have scored a hatful of goals against Arsenal in recent seasons and they can come out and get the better of an overachieving team with a good looking win in front of the television cameras.

Manchester City v Everton Pick: The return to domestic action comes at the beginning of a really tough stretch for every club in the Premier League, but Manchester City have the squad to cope with the demands in front of them.

This is a big week for Manchester City with three home games to come and they can secure top spot in their Champions League Group with a win over Paris Saint-Germain during the week. However, Manchester City cannot overlook their Premier League commitments as they look to keep the pressure on leaders Chelsea having closed the gap after comfortably beating rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford two weeks ago.

Manchester City were beaten in their last Premier League game at home as they struggled to deal with Crystal Palace, but they were not helped by being reduced to ten men. Before that defeat, Manchester City had kept 5 home clean sheets in a row in the Premier League and they are likely to have much of the play in this one.

Rafael Benitez is managing a team with more quality than his Newcastle United team that used to be set up to limit the damage when facing Manchester City. However, I expect the manager to want his Everton team to be compact and try and exploit Manchester City on the counter attack and the tactic will be clear from the off.

However, his Everton team are lacking confidence of late and they created very little at home against Tottenham Hotspur. Now they face a better defensive team, while Everton continue to miss the likes of Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin which may mean they are not able to attack Manchester City as they would like.

I expect there to be a couple of dangerous moments for Everton, but the majority of the game is going to be played in their half.

Manchester City have only won 1 of their last 3 home Premier League games, but they should be able to create chances against an Everton team who had been conceding goals at an alarming rate before the goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur.

It has been a case of feast or famine for Manchester City in front of goal at the Etihad Stadium, but they have mainly been very comfortable in games here. They have rarely been threatened and I think they can contain Everton in a home win to move into the big game with Paris Saint-Germain with confidence in their own level.

Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United Pick: Some of the top managerial names in the world are operating in the Premier League and this is a match between two teams led by a couple of those.

Antonio Conte versus Marcelo Bielsa should be interesting to watch on the sidelines as much as what we will see on the pitch. Tottenham Hotspur have only just been taken on by Antonio Conte so this is a work in progress, but there has been enough from the first couple of games to believe the players will be much happier under the Italian than they were with Nuno Espirito Santo in charge.

Leeds United will know exactly what Marcelo Bielsa will be expecting of them and there has been an improvement in their performances. However, they have missed Patrick Bamford in recent weeks and the England international may not be quite ready to produce a full effort in this system.

His absence would give Tottenham Hotspur the edge and the fans will be excited to have seen the impact Harry Kane had for England. He has yet to produce the goods for Spurs this season, but Kane could be ready to fire under their current manager and this is a chance for him.

As well as Leeds United have competed of late, they are a team that will give up some chances and that is where Tottenham Hotspur can expose them. In what has been a disappointing season, the bottom line is that Tottenham Hotspur have beaten the teams they would have expected to at home and this Leeds United team will fit under that category.

I do think the visitors can cause one or two problems of their own, particularly through Raphinha, but Tottenham Hotspur should create the majority of the chances. With the fans behind them as they welcome Antonio Conte in the Premier League, I think Tottenham Hotspur can beat Leeds United in a game that features two or more goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap

Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals

Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Watford-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals

Wolves-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals

Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester City Win to Nil

Tottenham Hotspur to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 12

It was far from an easy set of fixtures between the October and November international break and my Fantasy Premier League team had been suffering, but a solid GameWeek 11 has at least pushed my team back up the Overall Rankings.

I need more out of the selections being made, but I did manage to carry a Free Transfer over through the latest international break and that means I have two to play with in GW12.

Robert Sanchez was sent off in his last fixture against Newcastle United so the suspension means I am likely going to use one of those transfers on moving in a new Goalkeeper. With the fixtures coming up and with the form being shown by teams, my clearest option looks to be picking up Vincent Guaita from Crystal Palace considering the fixtures that are coming up for The Eagles.

Aaron Ramsdale is a popular choice, but Arsenal are overachieving defensively with the chances they have been giving up and I do think the fixtures look pretty tough to negotiate in the weeks ahead. The Gunners can earn a couple of clean sheets in their next six games and Ramsdale has proved himself capable of producing save points, but Vincent Guaita's Crystal Palace look to have the better run of games and I won't feel the need to remove him from my choices until the New Year.

But what about the other transfer? Before the Sanchez issue, I was thinking about finding the value to upgrade Kai Havertz to Heung-Min Son.

After Roberto Firmino was ruled out and looked like he could be missing a number of weeks, my focus was perhaps changing Havertz to Diogo Jota.

A couple of weeks ago it looked certain that Chelsea would have Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner available for the trip to the King Power Stadium, but both are now unlikely to start and that means Havertz can be kept around for the next GameWeek.

All in all it makes it a viable idea to roll the transfer again and have two Free Transfers in the pocket in GameWeek 13.

By then we should have much more information on the likes of Firmino and Andrew Robertson, and it will also mean I can focus on moves that I believe I have identified as being important.

For example, I would like to sell Michail Antonio, but I do think a visit to Wolves is not the time to do that. Another player is Cristiano Ronaldo, but Manchester United have a tough run after GameWeek 12 so this doesn't feel an ideal time to change him either.

I quite like the make up of my squad outside of the goalkeeper issue in GameWeek 12 and I think the options off the bench will cover any absentees. I am planning to post my team on Twitter at around 12pm on Saturday, half an hour after the deadline this week, but the starting eleven is very similar to the one I would have employed even if the international break had not created a gap between fixtures.

The Captain choice is perhaps the most difficult- a part of me is keen on picking Cristiano Ronaldo, but Mohamed Salah's record against Arsenal and being at home means it is hard to overlook the Egyptian.

However, the Watford defence have been truly terrible at home which is swaying me back to the Portuguese legend leading the line for Manchester United. You have to expect a more attacking approach from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, if only to ease the pressure that has built up on him, and that could suit Ronaldo who will be dangerous throughout and with a week off since last playing for Portugal in the World Cup Qualifiers.

In saying that, I have already mentioned that Arsenal's defensive numbers are perhaps papering over the actual performances. Even an injury hit Liverpool team should be able to create chances against them at Anfield and Mohamed Salah is likely to be a key player towards that.

It is a decision I am going to sleep on before making on Saturday morning, while any second transfer will also be used then. My strong lean in terms of the transfers is to simply bring in the Crystal Palace goalkeeper in place of Robert Sanchez as a set and forget until the New Year and that should mean having options to reshape the squad next week.

Tennis Picks 2021- ATP Finals (November 19th)

There are only five players that are officially left in the ATP World Tour Finals and by the end of the afternoon session we will know all four Semi Finalists that will be competing for the last Singles title of 2021.

The line up for the next couple of days looks strong and there will be some top matches to watch as players look to lay down a marker for 2022. It should be a lot of fun for those tuning in and I am hoping the Tennis Picks will also round out the season in good form.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Casper Ruud: Both of these players have won one match and lost the other in the Group and that means there is a Semi Final spot on the line on Friday afternoon. The ATP Finals organisers have made the right decision to put this Group match on first on Friday with the likelihood that they will be playing in the first Semi Final on Saturday and there is plenty on the line for both Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud.

They have faced different opponents in the match they have won in Turin, but both Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud were well beaten by Novak Djokovic who looks like a man on a mission this week. There are some similarities in their performances against the World Number 1 after they both opened up with a break of the serve, but Rublev and Ruud were well beaten and will need to be much stronger in the next Round, regardless of who goes through.

Andrey Rublev will hold the mental edge having beaten Casper Ruud in all four previous matches on the Tour and three of those have been on the clay courts, which is a favoured surface of the latter. On the hard courts, Andrey Rublev has been considerably stronger than Casper Ruud and especially when it comes to facing some of the top names on the Tour and I think the Russian player can get the better of his opponent here.

The serve is going to be a key weapon for the two players, but that is an area in which Andrey Rublev can find a little more pop and it could be decisive in the conditions. In matches against the top names on the Tour on the hard courts, Casper Ruud has really not had an easy time serving or returning and this is where he could come short again.

Casper Ruud has only broken in 20% of return games played against Andrey Rublev and that is considerably lower than the 38% mark that the latter holds in their head to head. In their two meetings in 2021, Rublev's return has been much stronger than Casper Ruud's and I think he will be able to hammer his way past the Norwegian player in this winner takes all contest.

The Russian impressed in his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and he should be good enough to cover the handicap set for this match as he moves into a big Semi Final against compatriot Daniil Medvedev.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Cameron Norrie: With the Semi Final scheduled less than twenty-four hours after this match begins, you have to feel that Novak Djokovic is not going to want to exert too much energy into this final Group match. He is not only through to the Semi Final, but Djokovic will know there is a big match coming up against Alexander Zverev, the player who ended his hopes of winning the Olympic Gold Medal in the summer.

That has to be the focus for Novak Djokovic, but he also will want to avoid going into the next Round of the tournament with a defeat behind him. Balancing the two is not going to be easy, but Novak Djokovic is used to playing multiple days in succession to win tournaments and he did have Thursday off to recuperate and get himself ready for the challenges he is going to face this weekend.

The final Group match is against Cameron Norrie and not Stefanos Tsitsipas who has withdrawn from the tournament. All credit has to be given to Norrie for even being an alternate here as the new British Number 1 and Cameron Norrie did win a big title in Indian Wells since the US Open, while also showing considerable improvement on all surfaces over the course of the season.

Cameron Norrie may feel his best surface is the hard courts, but he was not at his best in the first match he has played in Turin which ended in a defeat to Casper Ruud even after an incredibly fast start to the match. That has eliminated him and means the Tour Finals will have to wait at least one more year before an alternate player makes the Semi Final, but this is a good chance for Cameron Norrie to test himself against the best players in the world.

Now he has to face THE best player in the world and the numbers have taken a significant dent when he has faced top 20 and then further when facing top 10 Ranked players. That isn't a massive surprise, but Cameron Norrie has only held 74% of his service games played on the hard courts against top 10 Ranked players compared with 80% over the course of 2021 on the surface.

Where the big impact has been is on the return of serve with the break percentage dropping from 30% overall to just 10% when playing a top 10 Ranked opponent on a hard court in 2021. Facing Novak Djokovic is a huge challenge at the best of times and the World Number 1 has looked increasingly focused in Turin which may be his last big Singles tournament until February or March 2022 if the rules at the Australian Open means Djokovic will need to skip the event he has dominated in his career.

That is for another day, but this tournament also feels like a real chance for Novak Djokovic to stamp his authority over the next generation of talent that may feel they are getting closer to the top player in the world. Winning in Turin would mean an aura is around Djokovic once again entering every Grand Slam in which he competes and that kind of mental edge will not be lost on the Serb.

Novak Djokovic has produced potent serving numbers this week and he has only added to that by producing an immense amount of pressure from his return of serve. He has broken his first two opponents at least three times each and I think he will be focused from the off to make sure he is not dragged into a battle in this one and that should mean a tough evening for Cameron Norrie.

It is a big spread, but Novak Djokovic is more than covering through his exceptional returning and I will look for him to do that.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)

ATP Finals: 4-1, + 4.98 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.80% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2021 (November 18-22)

We are passed the halfway mark of the 2021 NFL season and it is quite remarkable to think we are now just a week out from Thanksgiving Day, a holiday which usually marks the run towards the PlayOffs and separates the contenders from the pretenders.

The extra game on the schedule doesn't really change that outlook and there are plenty of teams who are going to be looking to push forward in the weeks ahead, while others may already believe it is a time for evaluation to prepare for the 2022 season. Things do change quickly in the NFL with injuries taking a toll and momentum critical to teams heading towards January, but it would be foolish for players to look too far ahead and assume they are on the right path to success.

The last two weeks have underlined that with teams suffering upsets and records suddenly looking not nearly as strong as they do right now. But things can change quickly as I have said and Week 11 is a good time to set yourself right.

It is the same for the NFL Picks which have now had three difficult weeks- I have to look at myself about a couple of those selections, but the bounce of the ball has not really been in my favour and I do hope that is something that will change.

For example, you couldn't really tell me that the Indianapolis Colts would struggle to move the ball after leading 17-0 in the First Quarter last week and expect me to believe that, but that was exactly what happened in their narrow win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I need to be better too and that will hopefully begin on Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Thursday Night Football produced an upset in Week 10 and I do think the public are backing the favourite to such an extent that they are perhaps underestimating another to occur in Week 11.

You can't blame people for wanting to back the New England Patriots (6-4) who have won four in a row to get themselves back in contention in both the AFC East Divisional race as well as the Wild Card positions in the AFC. Mac Jones is playing at a really high level and the Patriots have looked pretty secure on both sides of the ball, while they are coming in off a blow out of the Cleveland Browns.

And the last time anyone saw the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) play, they were being thumped by the Dallas Cowboys in a game that got out of hand before it really began. That will have influenced people, but despite all that, the sharps are behind the home underdog who are going to be very keen in proving themselves better than what they showed last time out.

Cordarrelle Patterson could be a big miss for the Atlanta Falcons, but they should be much stronger all around with the experience of Matt Ryan likely to be important for them. Without Patterson there are some holes in this Falcons Offensive unit that is also without Calvin Ridley, but Atlanta can find a way to establish the run and that should make things a little more comfortable for Matt Ryan despite his struggles last week.

You have to question the Falcons Offensive Line after recent performances, but this is an opportunity for them to show a little more than they have been. It won't be easy for Matt Ryan throwing against this New England Secondary, which has been playing well and is organised under Bill Belichick, but I think the Falcons will have more success than some may think.

On a short week it can be difficult for the Defenses to be prepared and that is where the Falcons can have some success, especially with some banged up players on the Offensives side of the ball. It is not ideal to be playing on Thursday for those players, but I think Mac Jones has played well enough to keep the chains moving and giving New England a chance to at least win the game even if they are not able to cover the handicap.

It could come down to Mac Jones and the passing game and that is largely down to the stronger Defensive Line performance from the Falcons. Damien Harris may still be absent and the Falcons may be able to at least force New England to take to the air to keep the team moving down the field.

Mac Jones has shown he has the capability to do that, but I do think the New England Patriots could still leave the backdoor open for a cover for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

The spot is not an ideal one for the New England Patriots who are playing a non-Conference game and with the likes of Tennessee and Buffalo to come after the blowout defeat to the Cleveland Browns. Atlanta have also been pretty competitive this season and their two biggest losses have come on the road, but I would limit the stakes on this one only because of the inconsistencies of the home team.

One of the other reasons for the smaller stake for this game is that the New England Patriots have been well prepared for recent Thursday Night Football games and have gone 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in that spot. However, I do think the public deserve to be faded here and Atlanta can do enough to keep this close as the home underdog.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons + 7 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021- ATP World Tour Finals (November 18th)

The final match of the 2021 WTA season is in the books after Garbine Muguruza beat Anett Kontaveit in straight sets to take home the WTA Finals trophy. It is a big win for Muguruza, but the Women's Tour looks wide open and I think you could make a case for multiple players to win the Australian Open which is set to begin in just shy of two months from now.

Those players on the WTA Tour get to rest for a couple of weeks before rebuilding towards the 2022 season, while the majority of players on the ATP Tour are also heading for breaks at the end of a very long season. However, there are still a couple of tournaments that need to be completed and the conclusion of the ATP Finals will be played out over the coming days.

The Davis Cup is also set to go this month before big decisions will be made ahead of the Australian Open when non-vaccinated players look increasingly unlikely to compete. If rumours are correct, the defending Champion will not be playing in Melbourne in January, but that is for another time and right now the focus for Novak Djokovic and the other seven players in Turin is to finish their Singles season off on a solid note before playing team tennis and recuperating for the tough slog of 2022.

Alexander Zverev-Hubert Hurkacz over 22.5 games: A Semi Final spot is on the line for Alexander Zverev, but he has to win this final Group match after investing so much in the middle match before succumbing to a narrow loss to Daniil Medvedev. His opening match only lasted a set and a single game, but that has offered Alexander Zverev a win and he will progress as long as he can win this match.

Nothing has been lost as far as Hubert Hurkacz has been concerned, even with two losses on his sheet in his debut season at the World Tour Finals. All the Polish player has to be thinking is that a win would give him a chance of progressing as long as Daniil Medvedev can beat Jannik Sinner, but ultimately that match won't be of any concern for Hurkacz unless he can win this match.

He won the opening set at the tournament, but Hubert Hurkacz has lost the last four sets in succession and he is going to need to be a lot better than he was in his last match if he is going to beat Alexander Zverev. Hubert Hurkacz would have been expecting to play Matteo Berrettini, but the highest Ranked Italian was forced to withdraw with an injury and another Italian took his place in the Group and I am not sure Hurkacz ever really figured out his game plan to take on Jannik Sinner.

There isn't much familiarity between these players with their sole meeting coming back in March 2019, but there also shouldn't be too much that is unexpected. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev are going to want to use a big first serve to try and get on top of the rallies and that is going to be very important.

However, it can be argued that it is imperative for Hurkacz to serve well as he has struggled with his return in the conditions and it is unlikely to be given a lot from Alexander Zverev who has only been broken once in the tournament. On the other hand, Hubert Hurkacz has to be encouraged by what he can do if he is serving well knowing that Zverev has yet to break serve in the conditions and barely got to grips with what Daniil Medvedev was producing on Tuesday.

The feeling is that Alexander Zverev has a little more in his return game that can make the difference for him and I do think he will win the match. At the same time, I can't expect Hubert Hurkacz to be as poor serving as he was in his heavy defeat to Jannik Sinner and he can at least push his higher Ranked opponent, while helping this match surpass what is a pretty big total games line with all things considered.

There will be some tension to deal with as both players chase the victory that may be enough to secure a Semi Final spot and that may play its part in the contest. Serving well is the best way to control nerves though and I will look for both players to produce their best in this department to ensure enough games are needed to cover the line.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Winning a couple of titles and having a couple of other strong runs since the end of the US Open pushed Jannik Sinner into a high enough Ranking to be set as the first alternate at the World Tour Finals. While he will be glad to have an opportunity to play in front of his home fans in the first year the Tour Finals have been played in Turin, Jannik Sinner is likely to be the first to feel for compatriot Matteo Berrettini who has had to withdraw from the event.

The Tour Finals have been played for a long time, but there is a potential of a first this time around and that is having an alternate entering the tournament and then securing passage out of the Group. After crushing Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner has a chance of doing that as long as the Pole has been able to beat Alexander Zverev earlier in the day.

Having a chance of progressing would be a bonus for Sinner, but I don't think elimination will dent the enthusiasm nor will it quieten down the crowd who will be firmly behind the Italian number two. That should see Jannik Sinner bring his best tennis to the court after a very strong performance a couple of days ago.

Motivation for Daniil Medvedev is harder to understand having put in a huge effort to beat Alexander Zverev a couple of days ago, a result that has secured the Group win and likely avoiding Novak Djokovic before the Final. With that in the bag and with a Semi Final to be played in a couple of days, you have to wonder how much fight Daniil Medvedev will have in this match.

However, I do think the Russian is someone who will be using the energy in the crowd to really give himself a good chance and that should also be a motivating factor for Daniil Medvedev who has previously produced some of his best tennis when seemingly dealing with the crowd as much as anything else.

Daniil Medvedev will also want to just produce a stronger performance than in his first two matches too as that can be important to show opponents that he is looking to win the title here. He has really served well at the ATP World Tour Finals, but the return has been surprisingly underachieving and I do think Medvedev will want to show more on that side of his tennis so he is ready to compete in the Knock Out Rounds.

The head to head has also seen Daniil Medvedev largely dominate Jannik Sinner and both wins have come on an indoor hard court. Those wins have both come in Marseille in 2020 and 2021 and Daniil Medvedev has been able to get a lot more from his serve compared with the young Italian and that has allowed Medvedev pull clear and cover the handicap mark he has been set in this match.

In those two matches, Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his service games and won 74% of the points played behind serve compared with Jannik Sinner's 65% and 56% marks respectively in those categories.

Those are vastly encouraging numbers, although the motivation side is a concern, and I do think Daniil Medvedev will enjoy playing with the crowd against him. It should see him just show Jannik Sinner that there is still some work to do to challenge the very top players on the Tour and leave him waiting for his first ever top five win on the Tour.

Jannik Sinner has struggled to hold onto serve in those matches, and while he will be aided by the faster conditions here, I do think Daniil Medvedev can find a way to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)

ATP Finals: 3-0, + 5.16 Units (6 Units Staked, + 86% Yield)