NFL Week 11 Picks 2022 (November 17-21)

I will add a few more paragraphs to this Week 11 thread before the Sunday games, but for now you can read my Thursday Night Football Pick.

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Pick: A two Touchdown deficit looked to be the start of the end of the season for the Green Bay Packers (4-6), but a Fourth Quarter rally followed by an Overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys may just have saved the year. It is going to take a monumental change of fortunes for the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings for Green Bay to get back into the NFC North Divisional race, but the victory in Week 10 means the Wild Card positions are still very much in reach.

A short week is perhaps not ideal for the Green Bay Packers having put in a huge emotional and physical effort to beat the Dallas Cowboys.

They are also going to be very much aware of the physical effort needed to take on the Tennessee Titans (6-3) who have won six of their last seven games having beaten the Denver Broncos on Sunday. It is a victory which keeps the Titans in a position of control in the AFC South, but this is another team that would have preferred having a usual week building up to a Sunday game rather than being scheduled to play on Thursday Night Football.

Injuries to key players on both sides of the ball will hurt the Titans, but this is a team that is built in the image of their Head Coach Mike Vrabel meaning they will always put in a full effort. Having Ryan Tannehill back at Quarter Back in Week 10 was a boost, but the game plan remains very clear for the Titans and that is giving the ball to Derrick Henry and looking for the big Running Back to crash through the Defensive Line that is in front of him.

Despite the fact that most Defensive Co-Ordinators will be spending time trying to stop the run, the Titans Offensive Line has been able to bully opponents up front and open the door for Derrick Henry to do the damage on the ground. A couple of players are missing from that Line on Thursday Night Football, but the Green Bay Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run all season and I am not sure things will be much different in Week 11.

Keeping the Tennessee Titans in third and manageable spots is important to Tannehill and the Offensive unit and I do think the Quarter Back will have enough protection to try and keep the chains moving. The Titans will not want to ask too much of Tannehill, but the veteran can do enough to make sure he does not give the game away and handing the ball off to Derrick Henry should be the first and foremost plan as long as Tennessee remain competitive.

They should be able to do that thanks to a Defensive unit that have overcome the absence of key players to continue to make big plays as the 'next man up' philosophy shines through.

Despite having Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back, the Green Bay Packers have been much better running the ball than throwing this season as a young Receiving corps have struggled to make up for the loss of Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been in strong form for the Packers and were key to their comeback against the Dallas Cowboys last time out, but they are not expected to get a lot of change out of the Tennessee Defensive Line.

In recent games the Titans Defensive Line have held teams to 3 yards per carry and they will feel they can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which is very important. Jeffery Simmons has been a huge part of the Defensive Line, although he could be missing this week, but even then the Tennessee Titans will feel they can clamp down on the rush and then turn to a pass rushing team that can pressurise Aaron Rodgers.

The veteran Quarter Back has to be much happier with the impact Christian Watson was able to make in the win over the Dallas Cowboys, and there are some holes in the Tennessee Secondary that can be exploited. However, there is still an inconsistency to the passing game in Green Bay that is hard to ignore and I do think the Tennessee Titans look worthy of backing with the points being given to them.

I am not a big fan of going against a quality Quarter Back like Aaron Rodgers and the short weeks can play havoc with preparation for all involved. That may be a factor against the Tennessee Titans in this one simply because of the amount of injuries they are dealing with, but I do think Derrick Henry will provide enough of an Offensive spark to back up the strong performances being produced by the Tennessee Defense.

The Packers have a strong record on Thursday Night with a 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight in that situation, but they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven following a win.

Tennessee have some very strong recent trends and have been a covering machine in their last seven games and this really feels like enough points given to the road underdog to be worth backing in this one.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: There is only one Division in the NFL which has all four teams holding a winning record going into Week 11 of the 2022 season.

The AFC East is going to produce a tough path into the PlayOffs with all four teams looking and feeling pretty good, but that also means the importance of the Divisional games increases tenfold.

Both the New York Jets (6-3) and the New England Patriots (5-4) went into their Bye Week behind a strong win and they are two well Coached teams that should be perfectly prepared for this big Week 11 game. The Patriots do hold a win over the Jets from just three weeks ago, but Robert Saleh will feel his team made some very bad mistakes that day, which ultimately proved costly in the 5 point loss at home.

It might not sound perfect, but the Jets need to make this game much more manageable for Zach Wilson who threw three Interceptions in the defeat at home to New England. He is more experienced, but playing a Bill Belichick Defensive unit has proven to be very difficult for Wilson and the Jets will know they need to make sure this game is competitive and they do not have to over-rely on the arm of the young signal caller.

He did throw for over 350 yards and added two Touchdown passes in the defeat, but the game plan for the road team has to be to establish the run against this New England Defensive Line. You have to believe that Bill Belichick is firmly aware of that plan and will be loading the box and daring Wilson to beat them with his arm, but the Patriots Defensive Line has given up some big yards outside of that first game with the Jets and Zach Wilson could open things up if he is able to avoid mistakes.

Overall the Jets have been a team that can run the ball effectively and I do think they will be better in this one than the first meeting with the Patriots. I expect the Coaching staff would have spent the last couple of weeks working on a few creases to manage the game on the ground and keep their Quarter Back in a position where he isn't pushing to move the chains.

Avoiding mistakes is a key for the New York Jets because they have a Defensive unit that is very capable of shutting down some of the best Offenses in the NFL. They showed that in their last game when holding the powerful Buffalo Bills to 17 points and the overall numbers being produced by the Jets is very impressive.

As long as they are not having to defend short fields, the New York Jets won't feel they have a lot to fear from the New England Offense having held them to under 300 total yards in the home defeat. Mac Jones has yet to really prove he can be a franchise Quarter Back for the New England Patriots, who have not been the same since Tom Brady left, and the Jets do look to match up pretty well with this AFC East rival.

Running the ball is the main ambition for the Patriots, like it is for the Jets, and that is important to keep Mac Jones in a position to have success. However, it has been a real challenge to run the ball against the New York Jets Defensive Line all season, while the Patriots Offensive Line has not been playing as well as they would have liked in recent games.

If the Jets can put the Patriots in a position of third and long, New York will feel they can have the edge in this game and rely on a strong Secondary to make some big plays. It will also unleash what has been a strong Jets pass rush and I expect they could pressure Mac Jones into some mistakes.

One concern is that the Jets have had a poor record against the New England Patriots in recent seasons, while they were blown out off a Bye Week by the Patriots in 2021. However, New England have not covered in their last couple of games when playing out of a Bye Week, while the Jets have covered in their last four on the road.

Having a little more than 3 points looks a value play with the New York Jets who should be able to keep this one close as long as they don't have Zach Wilson giving it away again. This feels like a game that will offer the Jets an opportunity of a backdoor cover at the least, while the New York Jets Defense can contain the Patriots and limit the point output.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants Pick: Two teams who are going to be playing on Thanksgiving Day in a few days time are playing one another in Week 11 and you have to wonder whether the short week coming up is a distraction. The Detroit Lions (3-6) earned a vital win over the Chicago Bears last week and they are used to playing on Thanksgiving Day, but it is different for the New York Giants (7-2).

They continue to overcome the numbers and the Giants beat the Houston Texans in Week 11, which has taken them to a game behind the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles. While the team are going to try and concentrate on this game, you cannot discount the fact they are playing in an unfamiliar spot on Thanksgiving Day and they are facing the Dallas Cowboys in a huge Divisional game.

That game could be a distraction for the Giants, while the simple Offensive game plan means they are not likely to blow teams away. Shortened games are the norm with the New York Giants who are very much a team that will pound the rock through Saquon Barkley and look to wear down the opponents in front of them.

Strong play from the Offensive Line has helped Barkley in his bounce back year, while Quarter Back Daniel Jones is someone who is very comfortable moving the ball with his legs rather than his arm. The Giants should be able to get things going on the ground against the Detroit Defensive Line that has been giving up 5.5 yards per carry and who were pounded on the ground by the Chicago Bears and their dual-threat Quarter Back last week.

Injuries in the Receiving corps have been an issue for the Giants, but Darius Slayton has stepped up for the team and there are holes in this Lions Secondary which can be exploited. As long as the Giants are in third and manageable spots, Daniel Jones won't have to push too hard to keep the ball moving and the New York Giants should be able to produce a positive Offensive return.

As much as the New York Giants are going to be comfortable with the ball in their hands, the Detroit Lions have been pretty strong Offensively even through a difficult season. The Lions Offensive Line should be able to bully the Giants up front and they can establish the run in this game to keep the team in front of the chains and put Jared Goff in a winning position.

There has been a touch of inconsistency with the way the Lions have been running the ball and that is partly down to the fact that D'Andre Swift has not been used as many would have hoped. Injury hasn't helped him, but it may mean Jared Goff has to step back and make some plays down the field, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a huge feature of the Receiving corps and he has piled up the yards in the last three games.

New York have been a team that have bent without breaking Defensively, but I do think Jared Goff will be able to get St. Brown rolling in this one.

The Lions did put in a huge effort to beat the Chicago Bears in Week 10 and they had to fight back from a big deficit to do that and I think that is potentially going to catch them out here. I do like the way they have been competing, but the New York Giants have shown they contain opponents in what has been a surprising season and I do think the Giants will have a touch more balance Offensively that makes the difference on the day.

Both have some solid trends behind them, but playing on the road on back to back weeks is a tough task for any team in the NFL. Head Coach Dan Campbell has always gotten the best out of his team and that makes the Lions dangerous, but I do think they could come up short emotionally in this one with the New York Giants improving their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games at home.

I am of the mind that the New York Giants hold an over-inflated record, but I think they will be able to control the clock and ultimately do enough to beat the Lions by around a Touchdown mark, assuming the Giants won't blow a big lead like the Chicago Bears did.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This was a game supposed to be hosted by the Buffalo Bills (6-3), but extreme weather conditions have led to the relatively extreme decision to move this game to Detroit. The fact that the Bills are on the short week with a Thanksgiving Day game coming up on Thursday meant it wasn't really feasible for the game to be hosted by Buffalo on Monday or Tuesday and so the decision was made to relocate in Week 11.

In a quirk in the schedule, Buffalo will now be playing back to back games in Detroit with a game against the Lions following this one with the Cleveland Browns (3-6). However, Sean McDermott and the Bills will be travelling back and forth between Detroit and home for the next few days in a bid to try and keep their routine as consistent as possible.

This is a big game for Buffalo who have lost back to back games to fall to third in the AFC East as well as falling a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs who hold the current Number 1 Seed in the Conference. After winning on the road in Kansas City, the Bills Mafia would have been hoping to see their team secure home field through the PlayOffs, but work has to be done to turn things around.

Josh Allen has admitted that he needs to take care of his arm having picked up an injury that had him questionable to suit up last week- that means practice sessions are perhaps not as tough as they would be for the franchise Quarter Back. I don't think that is the reason he has been guilty of throwing some really bad Interceptions in the last couple of defeats to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, but Allen admits he needs to clean up his game to get the Bills back on track.

Playing indoors is expected to suit this Buffalo Offensive unit right down to the ground and they are facing a Browns Defense that was mercilessly torched by the Miami Dolphins last week. Coming out of their Bye Week, Cleveland disappointed and they may not have left enough time for Deashaun Watson to bail them out when he returns in a couple of weeks time.

After giving up almost 500 yards of total Offense last week, I do have to believe the Cleveland Browns will be much stronger this time around. A problem for them has been the struggle to stop the run and I have little doubt that Buffalo can rip off some big gains in this one through Devin Singletary and the ability of Josh Allen to tuck the ball and make huge plays on the ground.

It does open up the Secondary to be attacked, while also making sure the Cleveland pass rush cannot disrupt the game, and last week the Browns struggled to slow down the Miami Dolphins. I still think the Buffalo Bills are the top Offensive team in the AFC and I think they can pick up where their Divisional rivals left off by establishing the run and then having Josh Allen throw to the likes of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs down the field.

A more pertinent question for the Browns is whether they can find the Offensive success this week to try and stay with the Buffalo Bills.

They are being given a lot more points than they were on the road against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, but Jacoby Brissett is going to have to make more plays than he did in that defeat. First and foremost the game plan for the Browns is to establish the run and to control the clock doing so, but they showed last week it is much tougher for them when they are behind by a couple of scores and things can quickly slip away from them.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can have success in this one when you think of the recent struggles the Buffalo Defensive Line have had in stopping the run. In their last three games, the Bills have almost given up 6 yards per carry with the likes of the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings racking up big numbers on the ground.

That will be music to the ears of the Browns as long as this game is close, but the Offensive Line have not been as productive when it comes to protecting Jacoby Brissett when he drops back to throw compared with their ability to pave the road for the Running Backs. If the Browns are behind the chains, Brissett will be under pressure from the pass rush, while his inconsistencies throwing the ball could be a problem against this injury-hit, but still productive Buffalo Secondary.

Unlike the Vikings, Cleveland don't really have the same all around threat when it comes to throwing the ball. However, Amari Cooper may feel he can offer his Quarter Back plenty of support as Justin Jefferson did for Kirk Cousins in Week 10, and it may give the Browns the chance for a backdoor cover.

I do think Cleveland could be dangerous, but the indoor conditions should suit Buffalo right down to the ground.

Josh Allen has not had the best record against the spread when suffering back to back losses, but the Bills did cover in that lone situation in 2021 and I think this is a team that will be focused in putting in a big performance.

You do have to expect a reaction to the blow out loss suffered last week, but Kevin Stefanski has only guided Cleveland to a 1-5 record against the spread in the last six games after a double digit defeat. The Browns are also just 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen against AFC opponents.

Buffalo have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six against the Cleveland Browns and I think they have the Offensive firepower to get into a double digit lead and then force a few mistakes out of Jacoby Brissett on their way to getting back on track here.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: There is a huge AFC West game taking place in Week 11 with the two top teams in the Division facing off in Los Angeles, but the other Divisional game is not really going to be attracting the same sort of attention. Two new Head Coaches are already under pressure after what has been underwhelming seasons at the Denver Broncos (3-6) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7).

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders finished with ten regular season wins which took them into the PlayOffs, but Josh McDaniels has struggled in his second Head Coaching role. He did not perform as expected when he was the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos either and fans are already calling on the Raiders to end this experiment before the end of McDaniels' first season in charge.

The losses have been piling up, but owner Mark Davis has suggested he is going to stick with the under pressure Head Coach, although that decision could come under the microscope even further if the Raiders keep losing. One of their rare successes in 2022 was the win over the Denver Broncos in Week 4, but the performances have not taken much inspiration from that victory and the Raiders have lost three in a row.

Things have not been much better for Nathaniel Hackett in charge of the Denver Broncos as the big trade for Russell Wilson has proven to be a dud. The Offense has struggled with Wilson at Quarter Back and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 means the loser of this game can begin thinking about next season.

Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment and the Denver Broncos have not been helped with some key injuries to skill players around him. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are expected to be missing for the Broncos this week so the team will lean on the Defensive Line and hope they can open up some holes up front for the likes of Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray.

Denver could not run the ball effectively against the Tennessee Titans, but that Defensive Line is considerably stronger than the one the Raiders will run onto the field and I think the Broncos could at least have a bit more success in this game. Regardless, they also need much more efficient play from Russell Wilson, who could finally have a little bit more time in the pocket than he has become used to and that should see the veteran Quarter Back put up some decent numbers when throwing the ball.

Finding a consistent Receiver is the bigger challenge for Russell Wilson as he looks to prove to the upper management that his deal is not one that the Broncos should regret going forward. A strong end to the season will at least offer that encouragement as Denver look for Wilson to make enough plays that the Defensive unit can back them up.

There has been nothing wrong with Denver on this side of the ball, but the one big weakness has been stopping the run and Josh Jacobs could have another big game against them. The Raiders Offensive Line have not been at their best in recent games, but they should be able to establish the run against the Denver Defensive Line which allowed Jacobs to pile up 144 yards in their first meeting and have allowed the last three opponents to average 5.2 yards per carry.

In recent games the Raiders Offensive Line have struggled to open holes for Jacobs, but this is a chance to bounce back.

This is so important for Las Vegas as Derek Carr continues to voice his frustrations with the way the season has gone for his team. The trade for Davante Adams was supposed to open things up for the Raiders and give them a real balance Offensively, but Line issues have meant protection has broken down and the inconsistency of the Offense has cost Las Vegas.

Derek Carr may get a little more time if Josh Jacobs can run the ball efficiently, but throwing into this Denver Secondary will be difficult anyway. The inconsistent passing game is not really one that can be trusted and this has the makings of a low-scoring game, although you do wonder how much the players are willing to give for Josh McDaniels after all of the rumours about his future.

I do think that has to be a factor in this game as the Las Vegas Raiders look to improve their 1-5 record against the spread in their last six road games. The Raiders have tended to play well against their Divisional rivals, but they are also 1-7 against the spread in their last eight when playing a team with a losing record.

Denver are hardly pulling up trees at the window, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six when hosting a team with a losing record on the road and I think Russell Wilson may do just enough to lead his team to a win here. Both have issues on the Defensive Line, but the Raiders have one or two more holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by the Broncos and I think it will lead to a narrow win for Nathaniel Hackett and push Josh McDaniels a little closer to another early exit when Head Coach in the AFC West.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: You could see the visible frustration of Mike McCarthy on the sidelines, but everyone associated with the Dallas Cowboys (6-3) will know they blew a big opportunity to win at the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. A double digit lead and with the Defensive unit they have, the Cowboys could not have envisioned allowing a struggling Aaron Rodgers back into the game as they did, although the Week at least ended with the Philadelphia Eagles losing to keep the Cowboys 2 games behind the Division leaders.

With a big game looming on Thanksgiving Day against the New York Giants, the Dallas Cowboys head out on the road against another NFC North team this week in a bid to right the wrongs of the defeat to the Packers. This time the Dallas Cowboys have to face the Minnesota Vikings (8-1) who now have the joint best record in the NFC alongside the Eagles.

Last week the Vikings looked doomed after failing to score from the one yard line against the Buffalo Bills, but a mistake from the Center handing off to Josh Allen allowed them to somehow win in Overtime. No one will be bothered about how they win in Minnesota, but it is the latest victory from the jaws of defeat that have many questioning whether the Vikings are really as good as their record would say.

Like the Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings are also set to play on Thanksgiving Day, but a healthy lead in the NFC North means they won't be overlooking any opponent on their way to trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. That provides a huge boost to whichever team can earn it with the sole Bye through the Wild Card Round as well as home advantage through the PlayOffs.

The Vikings will likely turn to Dalvin Cook as their main source of Offensive firepower in this one as they look to expose the weakness on the Dallas Defensive unit. Throughout the 2022 regular season, it has been possible to run the ball right at the Dallas Cowboys and in recent games that weakness has been magnified so it would be worth the Vikings handing the ball to Cook and looking to stay in front of the chains.

This is vitally important to Kirk Cousins and the passing game as it will open up the passing game for the shots downfield that have been key to the success the Vikings have had. Adding TJ Hockenson to the passing game has been a boost, while Justin Jefferson is almost a player that cannot be guarded by any Defensive Back in the League.

However, this all works if the Vikings are in front of the chains.

Any third and long spot is likely going to see Kirk Cousins put under immense pressure from this Dallas pass rush and that has led to many issues for the Quarter Back throughout his career. After allowing Aaron Rodgers to connect with some big plays in the passing game, the Cowboys do have something to prove this week, but Kirk Cousins is someone who can be rattled into mistakes and that will be the key for the visiting team.

On the other side of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys will be looking to achieve the same as the Minnesota Vikings and that is to remain in a situation where they can hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard and look for them to rip off some big games. Like the Cowboys, the Minnesota Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run and now face a strong Dallas Offensive Line which will feel can dominate the line of scrimmage.

Personally I would like to see Dallas give Pollard the majority of the carries with the speed he has and the momentum the younger Running Back has picked up in the absence of Elliot, although the latter's superior pass protection abilities could be useful when the Cowboys want to break out some play-action for Dak Prescott. Both Running Backs should be able to keep Dallas in front of the chains and there are some holes in the Minnesota Secondary that Dak Prescott can exploit as long as he improves his accuracy.

Unfortunately that has been a big problem for Prescott at times and leads to some ugly looking turnovers, but he is blessed with some solid Receiving options. Unlike Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott does receive some pass protection and I do think the Dallas running game could slow down the Minnesota pass rush to make things that much more comfortable for their own Quarter Back.

The Vikings have thrived in turning the ball over through the air and that has helped them win some close games so it is something Dak Prescott has to hope to avoid. His two Interceptions absolutely hurt the Dallas Cowboys last week, but I think Prescott and the Cowboys bounce back here and they can win this one on the road.

Dallas have covered in their last four after a straight up loss, while they are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen on the road.

You can't take anything away from any team that has an 8-1 record, but I do think the Vikings have benefited from a few breaks that have gone their way and that means they are a vulnerable team. The Vikings are also 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six against NFC opponents and I think the Dallas Cowboys can win this one on the road.

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers Pick: The record may have the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) sitting in second place in the NFC West, but the trades made by the team and the roster as it is may be signs that this is the team to beat in the Conference. They are a half game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional lead, but the 49ers have won two in a row and injuries are also clearing up on both sides of the ball, which is key as we progress towards the end of the regular season.

Finishing with the top Seed in the NFC will be tough considering the records the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings have put together, but winning the Division will mean at least one home PlayOff game and potentially more. That is going to be the ambition of the San Francisco 49ers as they head to Mexico City for what is the final international game being played in the NFL in the 2022 season.

The 49ers will be playing Divisional rivals the Arizona Cardinals (4-6) in this one and the team will be sweating on the availability of Kyler Murray who missed the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. It was an important win with Colt McCoy behind Center after the Cardinals had lost four of their previous five games, but they cannot afford too many more slip ups between now and the end of the regular season if the Cardinals have genuine hopes of returning to the post-season themselves.

Injuries have also been an issue for the Cardinals in building their losing record, but that is not likely going to keep Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury in a job unless he can turn things around. Some of the decisions made by the Coaching staff will have fans scratching their heads and it certainly will have upper management considering the direction the team are heading in.

There is no doubting how different the Arizona Offensive unit looks with Colt McCoy at Quarter Back and when Kyler Murray lines up in that spot. The athleticism of the former cannot be dismissed, but no one would accuse anyone of being disrespectful if they say Murray offers much more of a dual-threat and may have the San Francisco Defense thinking a little more.

Regardless, this is a very tough 49ers Defensive unit for any team to face and they have been strong along the Defensive Line with an ability to clamp down on the run. Having Kyler Murray may pose a few more problems, but the San Francisco Defensive Line will feel they can contain a Quarter Back who cannot be at full health and force him to beat them with his arm.

In recent games there have been one or two holes in a banged up Secondary, but whoever lines up at Quarter Back is likely going to be facing a fierce pass rush around them with the team expected to be operating out of third and long spots. Stopping DeAndre Hopkins won't be easy, but the 49ers have to feel they can win more often than not on this side of the ball and at least put themselves in a position to win this game.

Unlike the Cardinals, the 49ers have added Christian McCaffrey to their Running Back room and this is a team that will just throw in a few creases to establish the run. They should be able to do that against this Arizona Defensive Line and that only makes life that much more comfortable for Jimmy Garoppolo, even if the Quarter Back still feels like little more than a game-manager.

Running the ball may give Garoppolo more time to try and hit a vulnerable Secondary, while the Quarter Back also picks up big yards by shooting out short passes and letting his Receivers pile up the yards after the catch. That will be the key for the 49ers as they look to keep the chains moving and put the pressure on the Cardinals to keep up on the scoreboard, and I do think this could lead to a relatively strong win for San Francisco.

Arizona won both regular season meetings between these teams last season so there will be a huge amount of motivation in the 49ers locker room to get this right.

The 49ers have covered in their last five games against their Divisional rivals, while San Francisco are also 15-4 against the spread in their last nineteen Monday Night Football games.

On the other side, Arizona are now 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Divisional games, while they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight against a team with a winning record. This is a big spread, but the feeling is that there will be one or two mistakes by the Arizona Cardinals, which allows San Francisco to have the extra possessions to come away with a victory and a cover.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021- ATP Finals (November 21st)

The final Singles match of any importance of the 2021 Tennis Tour will be played on Sunday as the ATP Finals tournament Champion is decided for another season.

This has all the makings of a really good match to decide the Champion and it is a rematch of an earlier Group match which was won by Daniil Medvedev.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It was the closest match of the week for Daniil Medvedev, but he came through with a win over the opponent he is facing in the final match of  ATP Finals in Turin in 2021.

That gives the Russian a huge mental edge as he continues his recent dominance of Alexander Zverev and it was some loose play at big moments that made the first match closer than it perhaps should have been. Daniil Medvedev had a considerable edge on the serving numbers and he has looked much more impressive on his return in the last couple of matches as he has perhaps gotten used to the conditions at this new tournament.

However, Daniil Medvedev might need one more big effort to slow the momentum picked up by Alexander Zverev who has won two pressurised matches to earn his place in the Final. The win over Novak Djokovic will have really give Alexander Zverev plenty of belief, but the timing of that Semi Final is one that might be detrimental as the German tries to get one over his opponent.

Alexander Zverev was playing in the second Semi Final on Saturday and he needed almost two and a half hours to finally get past Novak Djokovic. That would have meant needing a huge physical and mental effort and I do wonder if he is going to be a little short of both when facing a steady Daniil Medvedev who had a straight-forward win in his own Semi Final against Casper Ruud much earlier in the day.

In the last couple of matches, Alexander Zverev has served much better, but Daniil Medvedev has been consistent behind that shot throughout the tournament. In his two toughest matches of the week, Zverev has struggled with his return and I do think that is going to make the difference between these two players in the Final, especially if Daniil Medvedev can build up some pressure with his return and steady groundstrokes.

When they met earlier this week, I mentioned the numbers behind the serve with Daniil Medvedev holding around 91% of his service games compared with Alexander Zverev at around 70% in their four meetings on the hard courts before Turin. It was Daniil Medvedev who earned the sole break of serve when the two met in the Group and I think the Russian player is in the better form, while the additional rest on Saturday should serve him well for this Final.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)

ATP Finals: 7-2, + 9.12 Units (18 Units Staked, + 50.67% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2021 (November 18-22)

We are passed the halfway mark of the 2021 NFL season and it is quite remarkable to think we are now just a week out from Thanksgiving Day, a holiday which usually marks the run towards the PlayOffs and separates the contenders from the pretenders.

The extra game on the schedule doesn't really change that outlook and there are plenty of teams who are going to be looking to push forward in the weeks ahead, while others may already believe it is a time for evaluation to prepare for the 2022 season. Things do change quickly in the NFL with injuries taking a toll and momentum critical to teams heading towards January, but it would be foolish for players to look too far ahead and assume they are on the right path to success.

The last two weeks have underlined that with teams suffering upsets and records suddenly looking not nearly as strong as they do right now. But things can change quickly as I have said and Week 11 is a good time to set yourself right.

It is the same for the NFL Picks which have now had three difficult weeks- I have to look at myself about a couple of those selections, but the bounce of the ball has not really been in my favour and I do hope that is something that will change.

For example, you couldn't really tell me that the Indianapolis Colts would struggle to move the ball after leading 17-0 in the First Quarter last week and expect me to believe that, but that was exactly what happened in their narrow win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I need to be better too and that will hopefully begin on Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Thursday Night Football produced an upset in Week 10 and I do think the public are backing the favourite to such an extent that they are perhaps underestimating another to occur in Week 11.

You can't blame people for wanting to back the New England Patriots (6-4) who have won four in a row to get themselves back in contention in both the AFC East Divisional race as well as the Wild Card positions in the AFC. Mac Jones is playing at a really high level and the Patriots have looked pretty secure on both sides of the ball, while they are coming in off a blow out of the Cleveland Browns.

And the last time anyone saw the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) play, they were being thumped by the Dallas Cowboys in a game that got out of hand before it really began. That will have influenced people, but despite all that, the sharps are behind the home underdog who are going to be very keen in proving themselves better than what they showed last time out.

Cordarrelle Patterson could be a big miss for the Atlanta Falcons, but they should be much stronger all around with the experience of Matt Ryan likely to be important for them. Without Patterson there are some holes in this Falcons Offensive unit that is also without Calvin Ridley, but Atlanta can find a way to establish the run and that should make things a little more comfortable for Matt Ryan despite his struggles last week.

You have to question the Falcons Offensive Line after recent performances, but this is an opportunity for them to show a little more than they have been. It won't be easy for Matt Ryan throwing against this New England Secondary, which has been playing well and is organised under Bill Belichick, but I think the Falcons will have more success than some may think.

On a short week it can be difficult for the Defenses to be prepared and that is where the Falcons can have some success, especially with some banged up players on the Offensives side of the ball. It is not ideal to be playing on Thursday for those players, but I think Mac Jones has played well enough to keep the chains moving and giving New England a chance to at least win the game even if they are not able to cover the handicap.

It could come down to Mac Jones and the passing game and that is largely down to the stronger Defensive Line performance from the Falcons. Damien Harris may still be absent and the Falcons may be able to at least force New England to take to the air to keep the team moving down the field.

Mac Jones has shown he has the capability to do that, but I do think the New England Patriots could still leave the backdoor open for a cover for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

The spot is not an ideal one for the New England Patriots who are playing a non-Conference game and with the likes of Tennessee and Buffalo to come after the blowout defeat to the Cleveland Browns. Atlanta have also been pretty competitive this season and their two biggest losses have come on the road, but I would limit the stakes on this one only because of the inconsistencies of the home team.

One of the other reasons for the smaller stake for this game is that the New England Patriots have been well prepared for recent Thursday Night Football games and have gone 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in that spot. However, I do think the public deserve to be faded here and Atlanta can do enough to keep this close as the home underdog.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons + 7 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

College Football Week 12 Picks 2020 (November 21st)

The College Football regular season has been hit with a number of postponements and plans have begun to be made about the PlayOffs and whether they are going to have to be rescheduled from their current place in the calendar.

Those things have to be considered at all times, but there looks to be time to make sure games are completed, although we will see how the end of the regular season looks first.

More postponements have been confirmed for Week 12, but there are plenty of big games to come. Pivotal games that could impact the PlayOff picture are being played and the majority of the SEC are back having seen their Week 11 schedule decimated by Covid-19 concerns.

Indiana Hoosiers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The Big Ten East looks to be a two horse race for a place in the Championship Game scheduled for next month and those two teams will be lining up against each other on Saturday. The Indiana Hoosiers lead the Division with a surprising 4-0 record and they are coming off an impressive blow out of the Michigan State Spartans having already beaten the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines as an underdog this season.

Now they face their biggest challenge when they take on a rested Ohio State Buckeyes team who are 3-0 in 2020 and one of the favourites to win the National Championship. An unbeaten run in the Big Ten would certainly give Ohio State one of the four College Football PlayOff places, but they can't take anything for granted in this game and they won't want to think too much about the huge spread they are being asked to cover as favourites.

The line has raised some eyebrows and the Hoosiers are certainly well aware of the chances that Vegas believe they have in upsetting another Divisional rival. It is bulletin board material for Indiana, but Tom Allen is not going to allow his players to feel like they are second best to their more illustrious opponents.

At the end of the day Indiana will know they are playing on a level playing field and I do think Michael Penix Jr and the Offense will feel they can do much better than in their blow out loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2019.

It won't be easy against the Buckeyes Defense which is reliant on a strong Defensive Line to clamp down on the run and force teams to become a little one-dimensional against them. They have allowed 4.2 yards per carry so far this season, but I am not sure Indiana have the Offensive Line to really believe they are going to have great success on the ground.

The Offensive Line have been better in pass protection though and they are going to need to be if they are going to give Penix Jr time against a fierce Ohio State pass rush. Even if the Quarter Back is given time, he has to be aware that the Buckeyes Secondary have played well enough to make some plays and slow down the Indiana passing game.

Leaning on the Defensive unit might be the best way Indiana can at least produce some short fields, but I am not sure the Hoosiers are going to find a way to slow down Justin Fields who looks the clear Number 2 selection in the next NFL Draft behind Trevor Lawrence. The passing game is averaging over 300 yards per game in the early going and Fields has been very efficient with only 11 passes missed all season.

He will be going up against an Indiana Secondary which has held their last three opponents to an average of 200 passing yards per game. The Hoosiers Defensive Line can also have a big impact on the passing game with their ability to get to the Quarter Back and it does have to be said that protecting Justin Fields has perhaps been the biggest issue Ohio State have faced this season so there is hope for Indiana.

The Defensive Line has also clamped down on the run and the team who wins the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball are likely to come out with a successful result. The Buckeyes Offensive Line may not have been the best in pass protection, but they have opened holes to produce 4.8 yards per carry and if they can do that against Indiana they are likely to win and win well.

I do believe the Indiana Hoosiers will be highly motivated to 'prove it' as a big underdog though and I think they can play well enough to keep this one relatively close. Tom Allen has Indiana playing hard and they are 6-0 against the spread in their last six as the road underdog.

Ohio State have some very strong trends which need to be respected, but Indiana are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine in this series. They did not cover last season, but the Hoosiers will be motivated to show how far they have come in the last twelve months with the experience behind them now and I will take the points here.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Quarter Backs making their first starts for the Illinois Fighting Illini and Nebraska Cornhuskers must be wondering what all the fuss is about at the College Football level having led those teams to first wins of the season. Isaiah Williams and Luke McCaffrey will head into Week 12 with a bit more confidence and both are going to feel they can back up their last successes with strong performances here.

Neither team is going to challenge for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the Illinois Fighting Illini and Nebraska Cornhuskers will be looking to finish with a flourish over the next month and perhaps earn a Bowl spot somewhere. At this stage of the season we are still not sure how the Bowl season will look compared with normal, but the players for these two teams can't worry about that and instead want to get out and win Football games.

There is going to be a similarity with the way both Illinois and Nebraska are going to want to play this game as they look to control the clock and wear down the opponent's Defensive Line.

You do have to factor in the level of opponent that Nebraska have played compared with Illinois, and so the numbers might not be as bad when the Cornhuskers begin to get into a weaker portion of their schedule. Even then the Defensive Line will be a little concerned with amount of yards they have given up on the ground in their first three games and a team like Illinois with Williams at Quarter Back have shown they can have success on the ground.

The Fighting Illini Offensive Line has helped the team produce 232 yards per game on average in their last three and that kind of push may at least give the underdog an opportunity to keep this one close. Isaiah Williams was not asked to throw the ball too often in his first start and I think the game plan will be the same barring Illinois falling into a very big hole in this one.

As long as Illinois are in front of the chains Williams should be able to make some plays with his arm, but I think the key for the underdog is keep the ball on the ground and drain the clock while wearing down the Nebraska Defensive Line.

I have mentioned above that Nebraska are likely to have the same approach with Luke McCaffrey at Quarter Back who has taken over from Adrian Martinez. Like Illinois, the Nebraska Offensive Line is likely going to open some big holes against the Illinois Defensive Line which has allowed 4.9 yards per carry and I do think the Cornhuskers will be able to establish the run with confidence.

There has to be more confidence in McCaffey to make plays through the air too after his first performance compared with Williams for Illinois. It feels like there are some real holes in the Fighting Illini Secondary which Luke McCaffrey can take advantage of and I think that balance is a real good reason to have the Cornhuskers as a strong favourite.

He should be well protected for the main too and I do think the home team are more likely to win the game, but my feeling is that Illinois can make enough plays on the ground to keep this one close. Getting more than two Touchdowns on the handicap is a big advantage and Illinois are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog.

There was a time when Nebraska would have been a good team to back, but they are 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen as the home favourite. They might also be coming down from the high of recent opponents to 'only' playing Illinois this week which may mean they are taking things for granted and Illinois may have enough about them to find the plays to get within this number.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: Covid-19 postponements in College Football have had a real effect on how the season is going to end and the Big Ten have been dealing with plenty of those. It did mean the Wisconsin Badgers have only played twice this season and have had a considerable gap between games, but it did not prevent them from crushing the Michigan Wolverines and moving to 2-0.

They are up against the Northwestern Wildcats who have a 4-0 record and who are leading the Big Ten West and this game could be a real difference between the teams when it comes to the representative in the Championship Game.

The Wildcats have had a decent schedule to negotiate, although they have perhaps played games closer than they would have hoped. However the credit has to be given to a team who have won four games already this season to match the win record from 2019, although it will be interesting to see how Northwestern cope with the standards that the Wisconsin Badgers have shown in their two wins.

It would be fair to say that Wisconsin have not exactly beaten two powerhouses with their wins coming against teams who have a combined 2-6 record in 2020. However the Badgers have been dominant in those wins and they do look to have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will give Wisconsin a chance to have another strong showing.

The team have dominated Illinois and Michigan and won by margins of at least 38 points in back to back Conference games for the first time in over a hundred years. The Offensive Line has once again shown they can dominate the line of scrimmage and young Quarter Back Graham Mertz is capable of making plays through the air.

He wasn't needed much last week and the Badgers will be looking to grind down the Northwestern Defensive Line with their ground game to make things easier for the Quarter Back. It won't be easy but the rhythm Wisconsin had last week suggests they can rip off some big gains on the ground which should mean Mertz has the time to attack this Secondary which has also been playing well.

There are still one or two areas that can be exploited though and Graham Mertz has to make sure he is looking after the ball to avoid allowing the Wildcats to get a feel of this game.

Wisconsin will also feel very confident in the way their own Defensive unit have been playing and they are facing a Northwestern Offense which has not really been very consistent even if the team are winning games. Peyton Ramsey has been playing well at Quarter Back for the Wildcats, but turnovers have been an issue for him and this Badgers team have made some big plays when it comes to protecting the pass.

It is unlikely that Ramsey is going to have a really strong outing and the key is making sure he protects the ball as much as possible. Turnovers could be a difference maker in this game and those could certainly be the reason one of these teams are able to get away from the other and pull clear for the win.

The Badgers look more likely to create those as they are capable of putting Peyton Ramsey in third and long spots and forcing the Quarter Back to take risks. It feels like they have a similar approach to the way they want to play Football, but the talent looks to be with Wisconsin and I think they can win and win well.

Northwestern do have a strong home record against Wisconsin and beat them when last hosting them in 2018, while the Wildcats are 5-1 against the spread in the last six at home against Wisconsin too. That has to be respected, but this Wisconsin team may be one of the stronger ones they have faced in recent seasons and I do think Northwestern are not as good as their record may indicate.

The Wildcats are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog and they are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog. Add in the fact that Wisconsin are 14-4 against the spread in their last eighteen as the road favourite and I will look for the fresher Badgers to pick up from where they left off in their demolition of Michigan in the Big House and I will look for the visitors to cover here and take control of this Division.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Bedlam is set for Week 12 and there is plenty on the line for the Oklahoma Sooners and the Oklahoma State Cowboys despite the fact that neither is expected to be invited into the College Football PlayOff. That won't be a major concern for the players in Week 12 and the focus is to win this game and make sure there is a Big 12 Championship Game to look forward to later in the season at the very least.

The Sooners are 4-2 in the Big 12 this season and the Cowboys are 4-1 which underlines the importance of the 2020 Bedlam rivalry game. It feels like only one, at most, of these teams will earn their spot in the Championship Game and both teams are going to be relying on relatively inexperienced Quarter Backs going up against underrated Defenses in this one.

Spencer Rattler is the Oklahoma Quarter Back and he looks to have a very bright future with his school, although he has only be thrown in earlier this season when guiding the Sooners to a win over the Texas Longhorns. That has sparked a four game winning run for the Sooners and I do think they are playing with confidence having suffered narrow losses to Kansas State and Iowa State earlier this season, two of the three teams who are head of Oklahoma in the Big 12 standings and which makes the importance of winning this game even more than the sole fact the Sooners want bragging rights over their rivals.

The Sooners have to be encouraged by the recent performances of the Oklahoma State Defensive Line which has not been able to stop their last three opponents from piling up the yards on the ground. Over the course of the season the Line has been stronger, but Oklahoma should be able to get things moving on the ground which should only ease the pressure on their young Quarter Back.

I expect Spencer Rattler to be well protected, but he is throwing against a Secondary which has made big plays for much of the season. Of course the Sooners will point out their passing attack is the best the Cowboys Secondary will have seen this season, but Spencer Rattler is inexperienced and has to make sure he does not lose the game.

His opening performances suggest that will be the case, but the same pressure will be on Spencer Sanders who will go in as Quarter Back for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Turnovers have been an issue for Sanders and he is going to be facing a Secondary that has thrived on making big plays and that could be a key to the outcome of Bedlam in 2020.

The focus may be on Spencer Sanders because the Cowboys have struggled to establish the run in recent games and the Oklahoma Defensive Line have been stout up front. Building big leads in recent games have also meant teams have had to take to the air to keep up with the Sooners and the fear for the underdog is that they are made a little predictable in their play-calling.

In saying that I do think Sanders will have some success throwing the ball, although a lack of running game could mean he is under siege. The Oklahoma Sooners have generated a huge pass rush in recent games and the Oklahoma State Offensive Line have not only struggled to open holes for the run, but they have not protected their Quarter Back as they would like.

It will mean Spender Sanders is having to force throws and that could lead to turnovers which helps the Sooners pull away.

I do like Oklahoma with their four wins in a row building the confidence of the entire team, and the Sooners have covered the mark in each of those wins. Mike Gundy as an underdog has a very good record with Oklahoma State and his team needs to be respected, but I am looking for the bigger Defensive plays to come from the Sooners which may lead to a double digit win.

Both teams should be well rested and well prepared, but I like the home team here.

Michigan Wolverines @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: It feels like the end if nigh for Jim Harbaugh as Head Coach of the Michigan Wolverines as they suffered a third defeat in a row. He came in with high expectations to help the Wolverines not only become the dominant team in the Big Ten, but also with National Championship aspirations.

However the Wolverines have fallen far below those and the 1-3 record in 2020 with a defeat to rivals Michigan State and blow out losses to Indiana and Wisconsin means there are some major questions as to the direction this school are heading. It is not good enough and the only benefit of the pandemic is that the fans have not been in the Big House to voice their displeasure in person to the Coaching staff.

They are a big favourite on the road in Week 12, but Michigan do feel hard to trust despite the fact they are facing a 1-3 Rutgers Scarlet Knights team. Even that may not be enough for me to believe the Wolverines are capable of winning here as they have lost to a Spartans team who were beaten by Rutgers earlier this season.

The triangle theory is far from foolproof, but the Wolverines have Penn State Nittany Lions on deck on Thanksgiving Weekend and I do think the team may not be focused on putting in a full effort for the current Coaching staff. Inconsistent play at Quarter Back is also not very encouraging for those backing Michigan, although they are facing a Defensive unit which has struggled to contain Offenses.

In recent games Michigan have struggled to run the ball which has put pressure on whoever is taking the ball behind Center, although the Wolverines may find more space on the ground against the Scarlet Knights Defensive Line. That will help whoever is chosen at Quarter Back and there are some holes in the Rutgers Secondary which will give the Wolverines a real chance to end their run of losses as long as they can avoid making the mistakes which have blighted them in their three game losing run.

Rutgers have also lost three in a row, but Greg Schiano's team will be looking for a response against a Michigan Defensive unit which has been struggling massively. Noah Vedral will retain the support of his Head Coach at Quarter Back, but he will be looking for the Scarlet Knights running game to get going in this one to make things a little more comfortable when he does decide to throw into the Secondary.

Noah Vedral has made too many mistakes, but the Wolverines Secondary have not really been able to make the plays they would like as the Defensive Line can't stop the run. That has meant teams have been able to burn them in play-action and the Wolverines have also generated little pressure on the Quarter Back which should only aid Vedral all the more.

I am not sure he has enough to pull the upset, but Rutgers look to be getting too many points here and I think they are worth backing. We may see Michigan play with a freedom having lost three in a row, but they might also have quit on the Head Coach and instead look to win the big rivalry game with Penn State in Week 13 rather than taking on a 'weak' Rutgers team.

The Wolverines are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve games following a huge blow out loss at home. Rutgers are not exactly trustworthy as a team that has a 2-5 record against the spread as the home underdog, but I do think they can score enough points to stay with Michigan here.

If Jim Harbaugh is going to be fired at the end of this season, the players may not have a full effort for him and covering double digits does not look like something Michigan are capable of doing.

MY PICKS: Indiana Hoosiers + 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Illinois Fighting Illini + 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wisconsin Badgers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 12.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats + 12.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Picks 2020 (November 21st)

The Semi Final matches at the ATP World Tour Finals are set and I think the fans will be pretty pleased with the final four names involved.

I mean they would be if we were allowed to attend the O2 Arena for the last World Tour Finals played in London for at least five years.

Instead the players continue to admit that they are not finding it easy to be stuck in sterile conditions and you realise that everyone is feeling the same. Stefanos Tsitsipas spoke about things during his final press conference as he admitted it is hard to keep yourself stimulated and able to focus on the job at hand when so many of the things you would take for granted usually at these events are not enjoyed during a pandemic.

The players are still awaiting news from Australia as to how the Open is going to be run in January although it sounds like more and more believe the exemption that will be given to those travelling to the event is that they will be able to practice during the second week of the two week Quarantine set up. That likely means the Australian Open will be able to run from mid-January to the end of the month as it is scheduled, although any final decision is expected next month when the grander restrictions on travel are perhaps changed.

We should also have a better idea as to how the early weeks of the Tour are going to look, while the longer term picture is that there has to be a confidence that limited fans will be allowed at the French Open and Wimbledon when they come around in the months ahead. I would hope that is the case, although it remains a day to day discussion in the ever changing world.

Both Tennis Picks came back as winners on Friday with Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev covering as big favourites. My thoughts for the Semi Finals are below, but it does feel like the underdogs could have their day.

Dominic Thiem + 2.5 games v Novak Djokovic: For the second season in a row Dominic Thiem has done the hard work early in the week at the World Tour Finals before losing his final Group match. Again it has not prevented the Austrian from reaching the Semi Final as Group Winner and he is now ready to face the World Number 1 for a place in the Final of this tournament for the second season in a row too.

Unsurprisingly players at the top end of the ATP Tour tend to meet each other regularly at the World Tour Finals and these two are playing for the third time at the O2 Arena. It was Novak Djokovic who won the first, but Dominic Thiem beat him in a Group match last year which contributed to the early exit of the top Seed.

Only a win on Friday against Alexander Zverev prevented Novak Djokovic surprisingly losing in the Group Stage in back to back years and he is still on course for a sixth title at the World Tour Finals. It wasn't a long match, but it was a tough one and Djokovic has to know his level needs to be much improved if he is going to take the title here.

This match is one where Novak Djokovic can't expect to see the Dominic Thiem that was going through the motions on Thursday, but rather the one that has found the big shots to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafael Nadal already on this court. The US Open has been far from a dominant winner in either of those matches, but the conditions should suit his style and he has been serving well enough to bring the heat to Djokovic.

Dominic Thiem's serving could cause problems for Novak Djokovic who has not really been as effective on that side of his game as you would expect from the World Number 1. He did beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman well enough, but Djokovic has won less than 29% of return points played against Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev and that has to be a major concern.

The last two hard court matches between these two players have been highly competitive and my feeling is that this will be another considering neither player is really returning as well as they would like. It could come down to a point here or there when it comes to deciding sets and I would not be surprised if we need a decider again between Thiem and Djokovic to determine who is playing in Sunday's Final.

In those last two hard court contests, Novak Djokovic has a very slight edge when it comes to the percentage of points won on serve/return, but it is Dominic Thiem who has played the bigger points a little more effectively. I think something similar is going to come out of this one and instead of picking a winner I will look for Dominic Thiem to keep things very, very competitive in this Semi Final and back him with the games behind him.

Rafael Nadal v Daniil Medvedev: The second Semi Final might be played at an awkward time for sports fans in the United Kingdom, but it has the makings of being a really good, high quality match between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal.

The only player to make it through to the Semi Final without losing a match, Daniil Medvedev has already made up for what he considered his poor showing at the World Tour Finals twelve months ago. Back then he exited at the Group Stage without winning a match, but Medvedev has not dropped a set in the tournament this year as he builds on the Paris Masters title he won earlier this month.

That run of form will give Daniil Medvedev confidence as he looks to beat Rafael Nadal on the professional Tour for the first time. Their previous three matches have all been won by the Spaniard, but Nadal will know how difficult they have been as he needed five sets to beat Medvedev in the US Open Final in September 2019 and then needed three sets to see him off at the ATP World Tour Finals in the Group Stage last year.

It was the only match Rafael Nadal won here in London in 2019, but it is a result that will give him confidence having beaten the defending Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas to reach the Semi Final. This is a tournament in which Nadal has not had a lot of success in the past, but he has played well through the Group matches and that will give the French Open Champion a belief that he can perhaps win this tournament for the first time.

Both players are winning over 71% of the points played behind serve in this tournament which will always give them a chance to win matches, but it is Daniil Medvedev who has displayed the stronger returning. The Russian has created at least eight break points in every match so far this week, but Rafael Nadal has only created fifteen break points in total and Daniil Medvedev has had a significant edge in terms of break percentage and percentage of points won on return compared with Nadal.

It is perhaps the reason he is favourite to win this match, but I can't help but feel Nadal has had the edge in their previous matches and could hold the mental advantage in this one. The last two matches have been very close, but Rafael Nadal has created more break points each time and he has held serve in 82% of service games played compared with Daniil Medvedev's 76% if you only count those two matches and not the one-sided win the Spaniard had in the Canadian Masters in August 2019.

Again I feel this could be a close and competitive Semi Final that goes the distance like the first one which is played earlier in the day. Daniil Medvedev has to be full of belief in his current form, but Rafael Nadal is playing really well too and I will look for the former World Number 1 to come through the key moments here.

As the underdog Rafael Nadal looks a bit of a value play even if Daniil Medvedev has had a narrow edge in numbers so far in this tournament. In their clashes it does feel like Nadal can get a little more out of his return against this opponent without compromising his own service performance and it may be key to the outcome of the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Picks 2015 (November 21st)

The ATP World Tour Finals have reached the Semi Finals in London and that means there are only two days left for the Singles tournaments before the Davis Cup Final next week which will conclude the 2015 season.

Andy Murray's defeat on Friday was a big disappointment and means he is a little vulnerable as World Number 2 with a Roger Federer title win meaning the latter will be taking that position in the World Rankings.

Murray was not impressed with his performance, but he will now have a week to get back on the clay courts and get ready for the trip to Belgium where is likely going to need to win two Singles and one Doubles rubber if Great Britain are to win the Davis Cup. He won't be facing the level of competition he has this week though and I think Murray will be confident by the time that Final rolls around even if there are some weird vibes from his camp which saw them sitting high in the O2 Arena rather than courtside on Friday.


On Saturday we have the two Semi Finals played and both look like they could be very good matches on paper especially in the form that the four players have shown this week.

Hopefully I can pick three winners over the next two days to end this week in a very positive manner.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Rafael Nadal still holds the head to head advantage over Novak Djokovic, but it is the World Number 1 who has won seven of their last eight matches against one another. That includes straight sets wins at the Monte Carlo Masters in April, the French Open back in May and in Beijing last month.

I don't think you can doubt that Rafael Nadal is in much better form than in those matches earlier in the season, but he was quite convincingly pushed aside by Djokovic in Beijing when the Spaniard won just four games.

I would be very surprised if this Semi Final is not a lot closer with Nadal producing some very strong tennis to win all three Group games. On the other hand Djokovic has not quite looked up to his very best the last couple of matches, although he had Friday off while Nadal was having to dig deep to beat David Ferrer in three sets.

It is a match up that Djokovic has enjoyed in recent matches as his more consistent length has made it very difficult for Nadal to stay in the extended rallies. His serve is also under-rated and I think Djokovic will have the higher number of break point chances in this one and Nadal is perhaps not fully restored at his top level to challenge the World Number 1.

In the last eight matches, Djokovic would cover this number of games in a victory over Nadal six times including in all three matches they have played this season. A couple of years ago Djokovic also beat Nadal by a five game margin in the Final here at the World Tour Finals and I think he will have a little too much for the Spaniard again.

After some battling rallies, I think Djokovic comes through 64, 63 in this Semi Final.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Last year at the O2 Arena, Roger Federer beat Stan Wawrinka in what had to be the most controversial match between a pair of friends. Wawrinka and Federer's wife Mirka got into something on the court which saw both players meet up and hash things out backstage at the conclusion of the match in anticipation of their Davis Cup Final exploits that were to take place later in the week.

Both men have put that incident behind them, but you know the cameras will be fixed on Mirka and Wawrinka in this match as the media perhaps hope to catch a second coming together. It is unlikely though with the respect Wawrinka and Federer have for one another and this could be a very intriguing Semi Final on Saturday evening.

There are questions that both will need to answer- Stan Wawrinka had to play Friday night and it was a tough win for him over Andy Murray although he did get it done in two sets. However, it will be interesting to see if he can recover physically, while Roger Federer had been suffering with a cold on Thursday and will hope to be in better shape come Saturday.

In their three matches this season, all of them have seen the winner dominate. Federer has won two of those and Wawrinka has won one, but each win has come in straight sets and I do favour Federer in this Semi Final. Last season's Semi Final was very competitive, but Federer played the big points not as well as he would have expected and he can make things a little more straight-forward this time around.

Federer will need to serve better than he did against Kei Nishikori, but that might be possible with the additional focus with this being a more competitive match for him. I am also thinking he will be feeling better by this moment and Federer can find his way to a 63, 64 win and a rematch with Novak Djokovic in the Final.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-5, + 2.70 Units (24 Units Staked, + 11.25% Yield)

College Football Week 12 Picks 2015 (November 21st)

This month has been a hectic one for me but I am hoping things will settle down somewhat over the next few days.

Life is seemingly too busy for my usual posts and that is just the way it goes at times, but I am going to put up my College Football Week 12 Picks after a solid Week 11 returned the picks to profitable status.

Week 12 Picks

The Week 11 Picks went 7-4 although I have to say I was remarkably surprised with how poorly the Baylor Bears played in a home loss to the Oklahoma Sooners. I was convinced the Bears would be the team to beat in the Big 12 this season, but that Conference looks certain to have a one loss Champion for the second season in a row, although it will be 'joint-Champions' that potentially leaves the Conference out of the National Championship picture.

One of the surprise elements could be seeing a team like the Houston Cougars perhaps getting into the final four or the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as the best of the one-loss teams that won't be involved in a Championship Game.

These things will all be cleared up in the next couple of weeks I feel and that means the games in Week 12 and Week 13 are absolutely huge as the regular season winds down.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: The Kansas Jayhawks haven't had much success in the Big 12 games in recent years and they are coming off a big effort where they ultimately came up short against the TCU Horned Frogs.

I am not sure how they can pick themselves up again this week and the seniors may instead be looking ahead to their final home game next weekend. I have little doubt the Jayhawks will want to finish their season with a flourish and they did beat West Virginia when they last met here two years ago, but this Mountaineers team is battle hardened and looking to secure Bowl eligibility as soon as possible.

Revenge for that defeat two years ago will be on the mind of West Virginia and I think the Mountaineers have the balanced Offense to beat a team that put a huge emotional effort into a losing effort in Week 11.

Indiana Hoosiers @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: With two teams that have lost at least six games in a row and are almost both out of Bowl contention, it is little surprise that the public are backing the road underdog. The Indiana Hoosiers put in a huge effort to barely fail to beat Michigan last week and I do wonder if that has taken something from their tank.

However, the Hoosiers can win their last two games to reach six wins for the season and become eligible for a Bowl game and they have been looking much more competitive than Maryland.

Even the firing of Randy Edsall has done nothing for Maryland who have lost seven in a row even if the players are still trying. However, the Bowl chances are gone and you have to wonder if they have enough motivation to beat an Indiana team that is still fighting for a post-season berth.

The Maryland Defensive unit have played well enough to keep the team in this one and I think they are a dangerous team. However, I have to take the points with the road team here to keep this competitive.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: When the spread was released at the start of the week, the Miami Hurricanes were surprisingly favoured to win this game. That is no longer the case but I still think the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are going to be the too strong for the home team who have struggled to stop anyone running the ball against them.

It is something of a surprise if you were to just read the records of these two teams as to who is favoured. Georgia Tech are secured a losing record while Miami are Bowl eligible, but the Yellow Jackets have been unlucky so often this season that they are a better team than their record suggests.

On the other hand Miami are fortunate to be 2-2 in their last four games after a controversial win over the Duke Blue Devils, but the bigger fear will be the way they have been pounded on the ground. Both Clemson and North Carolina have had enough success to think the triple-option run by Georgia Tech is going to be too much for them this week.

Miami might not have the same level of success against an under-rated Georgia Tech Defensive unit and I like the road team to come through with the win.

Michigan State Spartans @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The Michigan State Spartans had a controversial loss attached to their name else this would be a battle of the unbeaten teams in the Big Ten East. It is no surprise that the public have decided to back the road underdog, but don't be surprised that the sharps are backing the defending Champions Ohio State Buckeyes as there have been signs the spread is going to move upwards.

Neither team has been cashing too many cheques at the counter, but the Ohio State Buckeyes have certainly looked stronger with JT Barrett as the starting Quarter Back. Connor Cook is the star for the Spartans and is expected to play too, but I think the Buckeyes have the better Defensive unit which will make all the difference on the day as well as the fact that they host this game.

Ohio State were 12 point winners on the road last season and they have won their last five games by at least fourteen points each. When you add in that Michigan State should have lost to the Michigan Wolverines I think there is definitely a talent edge leaning towards the home team.

You can't doubt it is a big spread, but I think the Buckeyes make more plays on both sides of the ball and come through to cover.

LSU Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: A once promising season is petering out for the LSU Tigers who have lost back to back games heading into this game at the Mississippi Rebels. While they try and pick themselves up, the Rebels are off a bye and should be ready for the challenge of hosting the LSU Tigers.

Les Miles' Head Coaching role has been questioned this week and I do wonder how his players can pick themselves up. Both Alabama and Arkansas dared LSU to beat them through the air and they have failed to do that, but I am looking for them to have a response to their two losses in a row.

The game against Arkansas was always going to be one where the Tigers would be flat after losing to Alabama, but I think they would have heard all the negatives about their team. That should fire them up and while I think the Mississippi Rebels are a solid team, to cover this big number is not going to be easy for them.

The road team is 11-4 against the spread in the series and I like the Tigers to cover and show they are better than they have the last two weeks.

USC Trojans @ Oregon Ducks Pick: The Oregon Ducks have looked a lot better with Vernon Adams healthy at Quarter Back and they have won four in a row, although they have been outgained in terms of yardage in two of those games. A big win over the Stanford Cardinal have given Oregon a chance of perhaps getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game again, but they still look to be asked to cover a big number this week.

It has been a disappointing season for USC of whom so much was expected this year, but they have also won four in a row and are also not too far away from getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game themselves.

I really think both teams have a chance of putting up some big points in this one and I can see this being competitive throughout. That makes the points on the road underdog look attractive and I think Oregon are perhaps over-rated a little having won games when they have not been winning the yardage battle.

The win over Stanford would have taken some emotional effort too and getting more than a Field Goal looks a lot of points.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Missouri Tigers Pick: With the two games they have yet to play in the regular season, Tennessee look on course to have their most wins in a single season since 2007. Of course it won't be easy on the road at Missouri considering the Tigers still need a win to become Bowl eligible and this is their final home game of the season.

Missouri had a surprise win over the BYU Cougars last week but Tennessee are a better team and I do think the Volunteers can underline their improvement this season by winning this one by a Touchdown at least.

My concern would have to be that the Tigers Defensive unit is a very good one and seems to match up well with Tennessee's, but I still do think the Volunteers are the better team and will show that on the scoreboard. There is enough balance Offensively for Tennessee to get through the Tigers and keep the chains moving while I don't know if Missouri have a strong enough Offense to get this done.

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: The Baylor Bears were beaten at home by the Oklahoma Sooners last week and were a little banged up Offensively. It doesn't get easier in the Big 12 as they visit the only unbeaten team in the Conference in the Oklahoma State Cowboys who might be the Conference's best bet to reach the National Championship Play Off.

This has recently been a very tough place for Baylor to visit and I do wonder if they can bounce back from a very disappointing home loss to the Sooners. The Cowboys have already blown out the TCU Horned Frogs at home and Oklahoma State arguably look a stronger team on both sides of the ball especially in the current health of both teams.

Even the narrow win over the Iowa State Cyclones has to be taken with a pinch of salt as the Cowboys were off a big win over the Horned Frogs and perhaps looking ahead to this game.

I think the Oklahoma State Defense might create a couple of turnovers and stall a couple of Baylor drives to lead them to the win in this one and I like them to cover, especially as the disrespected home underdog.

Boston College Eagles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish might just have a chance to reach the National Championship Play Off if they can remain unbeaten in their final games of the season. Their one loss to the Clemson Tigers, by only two points, looks an incredibly strong one and Fighting Irish have been playing very well despite being hit with the injury bug through the season.

I think they have will have a little too much on both sides of the ball for the Boston College Eagles. The Boston College Eagles have lost six in a row and they have struggled Offensively and now face a pretty strong Fighting Irish Defensive unit.

One thing I will say is that the Boston College Defense is definitely legit and will give Notre Dame something to think about. However their Offensive struggles means that Defensive unit can be worn down and that has been a problem for them all season.

Three of their last four games have seen Boston College lose by at least sixteen points and I will look for Notre Dame to reach that margin too.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: I was very impressed with the way the Oklahoma Sooners handled themselves in their victory over the Baylor Bears and now they face a banged up TCU Horned Frogs team on both sides of the ball.

Trevone Boykin is questionable while Josh Doctson is out for the rest of the season and I am not sure how the Horned Frogs will find enough Offense against this Oklahoma Defensive unit which might be the best in the Big 12.

On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield looked incredibly confident last week and it would be a surprise if he suddenly moved into a really nervous position. Oklahoma looked very good Offensively and they moved the chains consistently last week and I think they have enough success against this Defensive unit to keep things going.

It is a big number, but TCU look too banged up to compete with Oklahoma to me and I think the Sooners can set up a huge game with State rivals Oklahoma State next week.

MY PICKS: West Virginia Mountaineers - 28 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Indiana Hoosiers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

LSU Tigers + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

USC Trojans + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 15.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 11: 7-4, + 2.33 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.18% Yield)
Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 9: 3-6, - 3.29 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.56% Yield)
Week 8: 5-6, - 1.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.09% Yield)
Week 7: 11-3, + 7.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 50.71% Yield
Week 6: 8-5, + 2.49 Units (13 Units Staked, + 19.15% Yield)
Week 5: 6-7, - 1.50 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.54% Yield)
Week 4: 8-4-1, + 3.26 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.08% Yield)
Week 3: 6-4, + 1.57 Units (10 Units Staked, + 15.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-4-1, + 0.68 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.80% Yield)
Week 1: 7-6, + 0.48 Units (13 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield

Season 2015: 70-54-2, + 10.43 Units (126 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)