And just like that we are down to one Singles match per day at the Australian Open as the first Grand Slam of the season gets ready to close this weekend.
It has been a fabulous tournament and there are three potentially very good Singles matches left to go.
I won't lie, I am massively looking forward to the Women's Final between Petra Kvitova and Naomi Osaka which is going to crown a new World Number 1 as well as the first Grand Slam Champion of the 2019 season. Both players played tremendously in Semi Final wins and have looked very strong in Melbourne throughout this tournament and I think this could be one of the best Finals we have seen in a long time.
I will post my thoughts on that Final tomorrow, but on Friday we need to find out who is going to face Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open Final on Sunday. The Spaniard crushed the hopes of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Semi Final on Thursday to such an extent that the youngster was at a loss for words to describe what had happened to him.
This was a great tournament for Tsitsipas, but that loss was a reminder that the hard work is still in front of him if he is to achieve all he wants to. I do respect the fact that he didn't lose at one speed though and trying new tactics when present ones were not working is a strong attribute to have and one that will make Tsitsipas a great player for years to come.
For now the old guard remain fairly strong although Lucas Pouille will have something to say about that on Friday evening in Australia.
All three Tennis Picks returned as winners on Thursday which means this is going to be the positive start to the 2019 season I would have hoped for. Last year I had a miserable first three months of the season before turning things around so I am hopeful better is to come through the remainder of the 2019 year.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Lucas Pouille: The first reaction to seeing this spread was one of disappointment for me as I was hoping Lucas Pouille may be rated a touch higher than he is. It was a number I was still willing to back Novak Djokovic at, but I would have loved to have seen the same kind of overreaction to a tournament that Stefanos Tsitsipas got in his Semi Final against Rafael Nadal when he was in receipt of one less game on the handicap.
Never mind, we have to focus on what we have and I still think Lucas Pouille is going to have to play much higher than what he usually has produced if he is going to beat Novak Djokovic.
The Frenchman has been receiving plenty of praise for his support of Coach Amelie Mauresmo who has joined his team recently, but that doesn't count for a lot when going to the court. Some will suggest her impact has seen Pouille breakthrough at Grand Slam level, but he is a two time Quarter Finalist in the majors and I think the draw has been a good one for him.
Take nothing away from Pouille as he has beaten Borna Coric and Milos Raonic as the underdog and played very well in both matches. However this is another step up in terms of quality of opponent and Pouille has to show he can produce his best tennis against a top 5 Ranked opponent which has not been the case in his career so far.
Pouille is 1-5 in those matches on the hard courts and he has seen his serve attacked more than he is used to with only 70% holds in those matches. The return game has always needed work and the numbers are dented significantly in those matches too and I do wonder if the belief is there for a match like this one.
Winning matches adds to the confidence, but Novak Djokovic is a player who should be fresh having beaten Kei Nishikori in the Quarter Final after playing less than two sets. The World Number 1 is serving wonderfully at this tournament and even concerns about his back may have passed with the extra time to recover for this Semi Final, while the return is right up there with Rafael Nadal's and should put Pouille under intense pressure.
There is plenty of talent being brought to the court by Pouille, but he has struggled when facing Andy Murray and I do think Novak Djokovic is an upgrade on that type of player. Novak Djokovic should be able to force Pouille into some longer rallies and I do think he is going to return the serve better than anyone the Frenchman has faced in this tournament which should put his overall game under pressure.
It is a big number being asked of Novak Djokovic when you think of the serving numbers Pouille has produced, but the World Number 1 is winning 45% of return points through the tournament. He has broken in 43% of return games and even accounting for the slightly skewed nature of that by the Nishikori win, I do think Djokovic will challenge Pouille's tournament numbers considerably.
Those service numbers are some way higher than what he managed on the hard courts in 2017 and 2018 and I do think they will head back to a more consistent level over the course of the season. The Rod Laver Arena is a court Novak Djokovic has loved to play on and I think he will wear down Lucas Pouille in this one and begin to pull away once the first set and a half are in the books.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 58-43, + 22.39 Units (199 Units Staked, + 11.25% Yield)
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Thursday, 24 January 2019
Wednesday, 23 January 2019
Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2019 (January 24th)
The Semi Final line up was completed on Day 10 at the Australian Open and it really feels like the women's draw is where the real interest lies ahead of the two Finals to come this weekend.
In the men's draw we have two veterans who have achieved great things in the sport taking on two opponents playing in their first Grand Slam Semi Final and I think most will already be looking forward to the potential Novak Djokovic versus Rafael Nadal match as the final one to go on in Melbourne in 2019.
While there is obviously some interest in the men's Semi Final matches, the women's matches look fantastic and I can only imagine three really good contests remain in that draw.
Karolina Pliskova stunned Serena Williams in the Quarter Final to make another Grand Slam Semi Final, but she is yet to win a major and there are a couple of players left who have held their nerve to pick up big titles. Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova are both favoured to win their Semi Final matches, but they should at least be challenged by Pliskova and Danielle Collins who is having the best two weeks of her career at this event.
Collins is not going to back down from Kvitova having pushed in a tight three setter in Brisbane to open the season, and I do think we are going to have a brilliant day of tennis on Day 11 which is the final one of the tournament with multiple Singles matches scheduled.
The third match going on court on Day 11 is the first of the men's Semi Final matches as Rafael Nadal takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas under the lights on Rod Laver Arena.
The positive results from the tournament kept ticking along the 2019 totals for the Tennis Picks and I am hoping for more of the same on Thursday.
You can read my selections from the three matches scheduled for Thursday below.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: In the last couple of Rounds Danielle Collins has been very good to me as she has managed to beat opponents as the underdog to work her way through the draw. Only once in her five matches at the Australian Open has the confident American player been favoured to win so the situation in this Semi Final is not going to worry her one iota.
What will be a bigger worry is the form of Petra Kvitova who has looked very strong throughout the Australian Open following up her win in Sydney a couple of days before this event began. Fatigue hasn't been an issue at all with Kvitova being able to dismiss opponents relatively comfortably and she should be well rested after dismissing Ashleigh Barty in straight sets on Tuesday.
It was yet another strong win for Kvitova who has yet to drop a set and has not lost more than five games in any of the five matches played. Her intensity on the serve has made it very difficult for opponents to fashion too many break point chances and Kvitova has not been broken in any of her last three matches which is going to put pressure on opponents.
Petra Kvitova will need to find her best serving to contain Danielle Collins who is confident enough to step into the baseline and try and dictate rallies. It was that strength of conviction that allowed her to come from behind and beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the Quarter Final and the manner Collins was able to crush Angelique Kerber was mightily impressive.
The problem for Collins is that players who have been willing to take the game to her have had some success with Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges both winning the first set and getting very close to beating the American in the second. The first serve has been strong for Collins so she will feel she can earn some cheap points, but her return is going to be tested by the incredible serving Kvitova has put together in this tournament too.
An edge on the return has to be given to Kvitova too who is well known for her first strike tennis and I can see the Collins second serve being a shot she attacks from the off. That could put Collins into a tough position of having to defend a lot of balls and it is not her game nor does it look like Kvitova is going to head into a direction of making unforced errors galore.
That has been an issue for Kvitova in the past, but she looks confident and strong and I think she is going to have Collins under a lot more pressure than the other way around. The tight match in Brisbane will give Collins some belief she can upset the two time Wimbledon Champion, but I think Petra Kvitova is on a tough roll to stop and I will back her to win and cover in this Semi Final.
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: You do have to wonder how Karolina Pliskova is going to recover emotionally from not only beating Serena Williams in the Quarter Final, but the manner in which she saved match points and came from 5-1 down in the final set decider to win the match 7-5.
Usually Pliskova is a pretty stoic character, but you could see how much the win meant to her as she continues her unbeaten start to 2019. Now she has to avoid the pitfalls of the last seven women who have beaten Serena Williams before the Final of a Grand Slam tournament.
Only two of those seven women have gone to win their match in the next Round, but that means five of them have been beaten including Karolina Pliskova who lost in the US Open Final in 2016 after beating Serena Williams in the Semi Final. Emotionally it is the biggest achievement in women's tennis despite the American not being in the top 10 of the World Rankings and many players have struggled to back up a win of such importance particularly with so much usually on the line at the Grand Slam level.
Managing her emotions is going to be the key for Pliskova, but even if she can do that she does have a big test in front of her when facing Naomi Osaka who is looking to reach back to back Grand Slam Finals.
I did a quick search through the records and I believe Naomi Osaka would become the first female player to win her maiden Grand Slam title and reach the Final of the next Grand Slam since Jennifer Capriati back in 2001. In the last few years we have seen a number of first time winners struggle to cope with the new pressures on them, but the young Japanese star seems to take everything in her stride and is making her way towards World Number 1 status.
Naomi Osaka destroyed Elina Svitolina in her Quarter Final and she has been playing very well here and I do think she will be the steadier player between the ears in this one. I do like how Karolina Pliskova can compose herself on the court and she has also been producing at a high rate, but it is hard to ignore how big a win it was for her over Serena Williams and knowing how difficult players have found backing up that success over the 23 time Grand Slam Champion.
Both players beat the other on the hard courts in 2018, but they were two tight matches. Even though Pliskova was able to beat Osaka without facing a break point in their last match in Tokyo, I do think the latter has the slightly superior return game while their serves are just as strong as each other.
In a match like this the slight emotional fatigue and the slightly better return game may give Naomi Osaka the edge and the chance to play for another Grand Slam title.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: With a large Greek community in Melbourne and Australia it is no surprise that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been backed by a loud following in his breakthrough Grand Slam tournament. As I have said before, Tsitsipas has the 'x' factor which can separate those from being a very good player to one who can win multiple Grand Slam titles, but to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final he is going to have to beat arguably the best performing player in the Australian Open.
It shouldn't be a test that overawes Tsitsipas who has already beaten Roger Federer here and backed that up with an important four set win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the Quarter Final. The win was a good one, but the young player will know he can't afford to drop serve first in the opening three sets of this Semi Final because this time he is facing a relentless opponent who won't crack under pressure.
Rafael Nadal has been dominating through the first five matches here and his change on the service motion has paid immediate dividends for him. His win over Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final saw Rafael Nadal play his fourth match in a row at the Australian Open without being broken while the Spaniard is continuing to produce exceptional returning numbers.
Those will be tested by Tsitsipas whose return has been a key weapon his run to the Semi Final. During the Australian Open Tsitsipas has held over 93% of his service games and is winning 72% of points behind that shot and he is going to need to produce something very similar to give him a chance of upsetting the odds in this match.
A big part of those numbers is the 12/12 break points saved in the Fourth Round win over Roger Federer, but I am not convinced Rafael Nadal will be as generous at those key moments. The World Number 2 has not been as clinical as he perhaps would have liked to be, but he has been very strong and I think Tsitsipas will need to have learned something from his defeat to Nadal in the Canadian Masters Final back in August.
In that match Nadal was able to put the Tsitsipas serve under pressure, but his own serve was barely threatened. So far in this tournament the return of serve has still been a relative weakness for the youngster and he is only breaking serve in 14% of his return games which doesn't really bode well against Nadal in the serving form of his life.
Ultimately I do think the difference in the return of serve is going to be a key difference between the players and that will decide the outcome of the match. I think there will be times when Tsitsipas plays some big time tennis to push Nadal around the court, but the return of serve from the Spaniard will keep the pressure on and I don't think he misses the huge chances Federer did when losing to the Greek player earlier in the tournament.
Rafael Nadal looks pretty clinical at the big point situations and he has his eye well and truly in on the return. The two matches between these players in 2018 both were won relatively comfortably by Nadal and I think he has too much experience and too much strong tennis for Tsitsipas at this stage of their respective careers.
I will be looking for the Spaniard to break serve enough times to cover this number even if he is finally broken himself for the first time since the First Round.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 55-43, + 17.13 Units (193 Units Staked, + 8.88% Yield)
In the men's draw we have two veterans who have achieved great things in the sport taking on two opponents playing in their first Grand Slam Semi Final and I think most will already be looking forward to the potential Novak Djokovic versus Rafael Nadal match as the final one to go on in Melbourne in 2019.
While there is obviously some interest in the men's Semi Final matches, the women's matches look fantastic and I can only imagine three really good contests remain in that draw.
Karolina Pliskova stunned Serena Williams in the Quarter Final to make another Grand Slam Semi Final, but she is yet to win a major and there are a couple of players left who have held their nerve to pick up big titles. Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova are both favoured to win their Semi Final matches, but they should at least be challenged by Pliskova and Danielle Collins who is having the best two weeks of her career at this event.
Collins is not going to back down from Kvitova having pushed in a tight three setter in Brisbane to open the season, and I do think we are going to have a brilliant day of tennis on Day 11 which is the final one of the tournament with multiple Singles matches scheduled.
The third match going on court on Day 11 is the first of the men's Semi Final matches as Rafael Nadal takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas under the lights on Rod Laver Arena.
The positive results from the tournament kept ticking along the 2019 totals for the Tennis Picks and I am hoping for more of the same on Thursday.
You can read my selections from the three matches scheduled for Thursday below.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: In the last couple of Rounds Danielle Collins has been very good to me as she has managed to beat opponents as the underdog to work her way through the draw. Only once in her five matches at the Australian Open has the confident American player been favoured to win so the situation in this Semi Final is not going to worry her one iota.
What will be a bigger worry is the form of Petra Kvitova who has looked very strong throughout the Australian Open following up her win in Sydney a couple of days before this event began. Fatigue hasn't been an issue at all with Kvitova being able to dismiss opponents relatively comfortably and she should be well rested after dismissing Ashleigh Barty in straight sets on Tuesday.
It was yet another strong win for Kvitova who has yet to drop a set and has not lost more than five games in any of the five matches played. Her intensity on the serve has made it very difficult for opponents to fashion too many break point chances and Kvitova has not been broken in any of her last three matches which is going to put pressure on opponents.
Petra Kvitova will need to find her best serving to contain Danielle Collins who is confident enough to step into the baseline and try and dictate rallies. It was that strength of conviction that allowed her to come from behind and beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the Quarter Final and the manner Collins was able to crush Angelique Kerber was mightily impressive.
The problem for Collins is that players who have been willing to take the game to her have had some success with Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges both winning the first set and getting very close to beating the American in the second. The first serve has been strong for Collins so she will feel she can earn some cheap points, but her return is going to be tested by the incredible serving Kvitova has put together in this tournament too.
An edge on the return has to be given to Kvitova too who is well known for her first strike tennis and I can see the Collins second serve being a shot she attacks from the off. That could put Collins into a tough position of having to defend a lot of balls and it is not her game nor does it look like Kvitova is going to head into a direction of making unforced errors galore.
That has been an issue for Kvitova in the past, but she looks confident and strong and I think she is going to have Collins under a lot more pressure than the other way around. The tight match in Brisbane will give Collins some belief she can upset the two time Wimbledon Champion, but I think Petra Kvitova is on a tough roll to stop and I will back her to win and cover in this Semi Final.
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: You do have to wonder how Karolina Pliskova is going to recover emotionally from not only beating Serena Williams in the Quarter Final, but the manner in which she saved match points and came from 5-1 down in the final set decider to win the match 7-5.
Usually Pliskova is a pretty stoic character, but you could see how much the win meant to her as she continues her unbeaten start to 2019. Now she has to avoid the pitfalls of the last seven women who have beaten Serena Williams before the Final of a Grand Slam tournament.
Only two of those seven women have gone to win their match in the next Round, but that means five of them have been beaten including Karolina Pliskova who lost in the US Open Final in 2016 after beating Serena Williams in the Semi Final. Emotionally it is the biggest achievement in women's tennis despite the American not being in the top 10 of the World Rankings and many players have struggled to back up a win of such importance particularly with so much usually on the line at the Grand Slam level.
Managing her emotions is going to be the key for Pliskova, but even if she can do that she does have a big test in front of her when facing Naomi Osaka who is looking to reach back to back Grand Slam Finals.
I did a quick search through the records and I believe Naomi Osaka would become the first female player to win her maiden Grand Slam title and reach the Final of the next Grand Slam since Jennifer Capriati back in 2001. In the last few years we have seen a number of first time winners struggle to cope with the new pressures on them, but the young Japanese star seems to take everything in her stride and is making her way towards World Number 1 status.
Naomi Osaka destroyed Elina Svitolina in her Quarter Final and she has been playing very well here and I do think she will be the steadier player between the ears in this one. I do like how Karolina Pliskova can compose herself on the court and she has also been producing at a high rate, but it is hard to ignore how big a win it was for her over Serena Williams and knowing how difficult players have found backing up that success over the 23 time Grand Slam Champion.
Both players beat the other on the hard courts in 2018, but they were two tight matches. Even though Pliskova was able to beat Osaka without facing a break point in their last match in Tokyo, I do think the latter has the slightly superior return game while their serves are just as strong as each other.
In a match like this the slight emotional fatigue and the slightly better return game may give Naomi Osaka the edge and the chance to play for another Grand Slam title.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: With a large Greek community in Melbourne and Australia it is no surprise that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been backed by a loud following in his breakthrough Grand Slam tournament. As I have said before, Tsitsipas has the 'x' factor which can separate those from being a very good player to one who can win multiple Grand Slam titles, but to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final he is going to have to beat arguably the best performing player in the Australian Open.
It shouldn't be a test that overawes Tsitsipas who has already beaten Roger Federer here and backed that up with an important four set win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the Quarter Final. The win was a good one, but the young player will know he can't afford to drop serve first in the opening three sets of this Semi Final because this time he is facing a relentless opponent who won't crack under pressure.
Rafael Nadal has been dominating through the first five matches here and his change on the service motion has paid immediate dividends for him. His win over Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final saw Rafael Nadal play his fourth match in a row at the Australian Open without being broken while the Spaniard is continuing to produce exceptional returning numbers.
Those will be tested by Tsitsipas whose return has been a key weapon his run to the Semi Final. During the Australian Open Tsitsipas has held over 93% of his service games and is winning 72% of points behind that shot and he is going to need to produce something very similar to give him a chance of upsetting the odds in this match.
A big part of those numbers is the 12/12 break points saved in the Fourth Round win over Roger Federer, but I am not convinced Rafael Nadal will be as generous at those key moments. The World Number 2 has not been as clinical as he perhaps would have liked to be, but he has been very strong and I think Tsitsipas will need to have learned something from his defeat to Nadal in the Canadian Masters Final back in August.
In that match Nadal was able to put the Tsitsipas serve under pressure, but his own serve was barely threatened. So far in this tournament the return of serve has still been a relative weakness for the youngster and he is only breaking serve in 14% of his return games which doesn't really bode well against Nadal in the serving form of his life.
Ultimately I do think the difference in the return of serve is going to be a key difference between the players and that will decide the outcome of the match. I think there will be times when Tsitsipas plays some big time tennis to push Nadal around the court, but the return of serve from the Spaniard will keep the pressure on and I don't think he misses the huge chances Federer did when losing to the Greek player earlier in the tournament.
Rafael Nadal looks pretty clinical at the big point situations and he has his eye well and truly in on the return. The two matches between these players in 2018 both were won relatively comfortably by Nadal and I think he has too much experience and too much strong tennis for Tsitsipas at this stage of their respective careers.
I will be looking for the Spaniard to break serve enough times to cover this number even if he is finally broken himself for the first time since the First Round.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 55-43, + 17.13 Units (193 Units Staked, + 8.88% Yield)
Tuesday, 22 January 2019
Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2019 (January 23rd)
The first men's and women's Semi Final matches were set on Tuesday at the Australian Open and it features a couple of the leading contenders facing upstarts who have had their best success at a Grand Slam event in the relatively young careers.
Rafael Nadal has been relentless throughout the Australian Open and it has looked clear enough for a few days that he is going to be very hard to beat in his current form. The Spaniard has not had the same type of consistent success on the hard courts as he has on the clay courts, but he has proven time and time again that he can be very strong in this surface as long as his body holds up.
He dismissed 'Next Gen' Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final with a thoroughly professional performance and Nadal goes on to face Stefanos Tsitsipas who once again held himself together at pivotal moments throughout his win over Roberto Bautista Agut.
The young Greek star actually gave away the first break in each of the first three sets played, but in two of them he managed to turns things around before winning a Fourth Set tie-breaker to move into his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final. I am sure many more are to come for Tsitsipas, but he is going to need to have a monster serving day to win this one as far as I am concerned.
Either that or have Nadal's body let him down as it did twelve months ago in a defeat to Marin Cilic in Melbourne.
There is a real heartwarming story in the women's draw and you would have to be made of stone to not appreciate Petra Kvitova.
The two time Wimbledon Champion suffered a knife injury a little over two years ago and it has taken time for her to really return to the kind of form the Czech player can play. I've always enjoyed watching Kvitova play, especially when she is playing as well as she is in Australia and it is going to take something special to beat her.
Ashleigh Barty has nothing to be ashamed of having made it to a Grand Slam Quarter Final for the first time and the Australian should have plenty more to give as the 2019 season develops.
Petra Kvitova will face one of the players who has newly entered my favourite list- Danielle Collins.
The American is not your normal tennis interview and while that seems to rub some people up the wrong way, I love the fact that Collins is not shy to admit where she sees herself.
Confidence and brashness together can be hard for many to see, but I loved Muhammad Ali and Collins is backing up her own talk in a big way. She is great to watch on the court with emotion being worn on her sleeve and I hope the smart player coming out of College can use this tournament as a springboard for much better over the course of 2019.
Beating Petra Kvitova is going to be very difficult, but I know Collins will believe she can do that and her fight shown so far in this tournament suggests she won't crumble or give this one up easily. Unfortunately Kvitova doesn't ask to dictate on the court and this could be a really fun match for thos who like big hitting tennis.
On Day 10 we complete the Semi Final line up with Rod Laver Arena hosting the remaining four Quarter Final matches in succession. It is a great day for the fans, but a long day with a Night Session in place too, although I think the fans will get a lot of bang for their buck.
In my opinion the two women's matches are better than the two men's on paper, but tennis is played on the court and not on paper so hopefully it is another strong day.
Day 11 is the last where multiple Singles matches are played on the same day and the last three days of the tournament see the Singles match scheduled for the Night Session which is great news for those who have been staying up through the night to watch the tennis in the United Kingdom.
A strong Day 9 has kept the tournament ticking along in the way I would have hoped ten days ago, but there is still work to do to lock in a positive event to open 2019.
Milos Raonic - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: You could have been forgiven for thinking the Australian Open may have come too early for Milos Raonic who is returning from an injury hit 2018, while Lucas Pouille had never performed well at this Grand Slam. Yet here we are with these two men making the Quarter Final of the tournament and I can guarantee both Raonic and Pouille recognise the path that has opened to them.
It can put some pressure on players when they realise how much they can achieve by winning a match, but Raonic and Pouille have both played in Quarter Final matches at Slams before so they should understand what is expected of them.
Out of the two players it is Milos Raonic who has made the Semi Final and Final of Grand Slams before so he may feel a little less pressure than his opponent. The run to this Quarter Final would have likely surpassed many expectations Raonic has had for himself and it is very difficult to ignore the head to head record against Pouille which has seen Raonic win all three previous matches including at the Australian Open in straight sets in 2016.
The Raonic serve has been working to almost perfection and he has only faced five break points in his four matches here. However the Canadian will want to have played the big points a little better as he has been broken four times from those five break points faced, but I am not sure Pouille's average return game is going to get much joy out of the Raonic serve here.
The Frenchman has linked up with former Grand Slam Champion Amelie Mauresmo, but his return game at the Australian Open has remained average with just 16% of those games resulting in a break of serve. That return has been a real weakness for Pouille for some time and it says a lot that he has only created two break points against Raonic in three matches against the Canadian and the big server has held at over 97% of the time.
It puts some real pressure on Pouille and while he has been serving well and Raonic is not exactly Novak Djokovic when it comes to returning, mentally it will be a challenge to keep things going if he can't get near the Raonic serve. Even in the run to the Quarter Final and including the devastating win over Alexander Zverev, the Raonic return numbers are not that impressive.
They haven't needed to be to win matches though and you may think one or two breaks of serve is all Raonic is going to need to win this match relatively comfortably. Milos Raonic has had success attacking the Pouille serve in their three previous matches, although the one in 2018 on the grass courts of Stuttgart was unsurprisingly serve orientated.
Even then Raonic broke serve and he does have a break number of over 23% against Pouille and I do think the Canadian is serving well enough to win this match by a good margin.
Trusting Raonic to break serve and cover big spreads is not easy, but he has been in fine form in Australia and I would not be surprised if Pouille was to offer some lapses of concentration on which the Canadian can pounce upon.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There were some uncomfortable signs from Novak Djokovic at the end of his gruelling win over Daniil Medvedev and the World Number 1 admitted he will need some time to recover. He clutched his back and looked to be short of energy in a tough encounter against a young, hungry opponent who pushed Djokovic all the way to the finish line.
Ultimately Djokovic came through and will have had almost a full 48 hours before he is being asked to come back to the court. The match with Kei Nishikori should hold no surprises for Novak Djokovic with these two being paired together for the eighteenth time and more importantly is the fact that Nishikori has needed five sets in three of his four matches at the Australian Open.
Confidence will be high having made an unbeaten start to the 2019 season, but Nishikori has twice needed to come from two sets down including in the last Round against Pablo Carreno Busta. His opponent left the court steaming after a controversial point was awarded to Nishikori in the final set breaker, but you could see how much the win meant to Nishikori and his team.
Picking themselves up emotionally and physically won't be easy for Nishikori whose game does not match up well with Djokovic's. If the World Number 1 is close to 100% it really is going to be very difficult for Nishikori who was beaten at Wimbledon and the US Open by Djokovic in 2018 and both times relatively comfortably and by a wide enough margin to cover the games being asked of the Serb in this Quarter Final.
In the Grand Slam matches between these two, Djokovic holds at just under 85% of the time while Nishikori is down at 63%. That's a huge margin and I don't know how the Japanese star bridges that while those numbers become 83% and 53% for those players respectively when they have played on the hard courts.
Novak Djokovic has been in very good form throughout this tournament and while these players are holding at about the same rate, it is Djokovic who is breaking at almost a 20% higher rate.
The fitness issues for the Number 1 Seed are a concern, but there is no way Nishikori can be in great physical shape for this one. The match with Pablo Carreno Busta was a long one with intense rallies and I will back Novak Djokovic to continue his dominance of this opponent with the assumption he is relatively in good shape to compete.
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: This looks to be a very interesting Quarter Final match between the current US Open Champion and a player who has flattered to deceive in the Grand Slam events. Naomi Osaka is playing at her home Grand Slam with the Australian Open representing Asia and the Pacific, but she seems to be very level headed and her experiences of the US Open just a few months ago will stand her in good stead.
For Elina Svitolina winning the WTA Finals in Singapore was expected to be the big breakthrough she needed to show she can handle the pressure of playing at these huge tournaments. She has a chance to show what she has learned but you can't ignore the fact Svitolina has never been beyond the Quarter Final at any Grand Slam and she has really fallen away in her three previous matches played at this stage of a Slam.
In the last couple of Rounds Svitolina could have easily crumbled in her matches against Shuai Zhang and Madison Keys, but both times she was able to rally and then show some toughness to go through. I do think the win in Singapore will have helped her, but this is another big test against someone who hits the ball very hard and can take the racquet out of Svitolina's hands.
Naomi Osaka has needed three sets in each of the last couple of Rounds and she has fallen a set down in both of those matches before fighting back. That is impressive enough, but I have to say I have really admired the fact she has worked out two very awkward opponents and not allowed the defensive skills of Su-Wei Hsieh and Anastasija Sevastova to rattle her.
In this tournament Osaka has been producing slightly better numbers on both the serve and return but this does feel like a close match. It is Elina Svitolina who won both their head to head matches on the hard courts in 2018 in Dubai and Miami and she did have the better of the return of serve out of the two players and that could be a critical factor in such a close looking match.
My slightest of edges goes to Naomi Osaka though who I think can have the power to dictate the direction this match goes. Both Zhang and Keys showed you can rattle the Svitolina game if you start hitting through the court and the Ukrainian is under some pressure to show she is capable of winning a Slam having never been beyond this stage before.
The pressure has gotten to her in those matches previously and I will back Naomi Osaka to move through to another Grand Slam Semi Final.
Serena Williams-Karolina Pliskova over 21.5 games: This is the Quarter Final I am looking forward to the most on Wednesday when Serena Williams takes on big hitting Karolina Pliskova. The top half of the women's draw is loaded with talent and all three matches left to play to determine the Finalist from his half of the draw look like they could be special on paper, but let's first focus on this Quarter Final.
In the 2016 US Open, Karolina Pliskova stunned Serena Williams in the Semi Final, but in 2018 Serena had some revenge when beating the Czech player in the Quarter Final. Both matches could have easily gone the other way too and I do think this is could be another real battle.
Both players are very much relying on a big first serve and then being able to play first strike tennis. Neither of these two players will want to offer up too many second serves for the other to attack while taking the break point opportunities when they come up will be very important, especially for Karolina Pliskova.
She only took 2/12 at the US Open in September, but Pliskova has been very strong on the return in this tournament and taken 20/43 break points created in her four matches. A crushing win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round has kept the roll going after the Czech player won the title in Brisbane while the serve has been firing as she would like.
Of course Serena Williams will test both of those areas of Pliskova's game, but the American is coming off a tough Fourth Round win over Simona Halep when she only just held herself together in the final set. That might be the low point of this tournament for Serena Williams who continues to produce big serves, but I do think she is perhaps more vulnerable than she has been in throughout her career.
Players are not overawed by Williams as they once were and Pliskova has to feel her best tennis will give her every chance of success. I am not sure to be honest, but I do think she has the capability of winning at least one set in this match which should help push the match over the total games line set.
If they both serve as well as they can, I can see this match having two tight sets being competed and there is every chance they need a decider to work out the outcome. None of their previous three matches have gone the distance which would be a concern, but I do think both players are performing at a very high level that suggests neither will allow themselves to be steamrolled out of the way.
There is always a fear Serena Williams will do that to any opponent when she really feels her tennis, but I will back at least twenty-two games to be needed in this Quarter Final that should excite the fans.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams-Karolina Pliskova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 53-42, + 15.65 Units (187 Units Staked, + 8.37% Yield)
Rafael Nadal has been relentless throughout the Australian Open and it has looked clear enough for a few days that he is going to be very hard to beat in his current form. The Spaniard has not had the same type of consistent success on the hard courts as he has on the clay courts, but he has proven time and time again that he can be very strong in this surface as long as his body holds up.
He dismissed 'Next Gen' Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final with a thoroughly professional performance and Nadal goes on to face Stefanos Tsitsipas who once again held himself together at pivotal moments throughout his win over Roberto Bautista Agut.
The young Greek star actually gave away the first break in each of the first three sets played, but in two of them he managed to turns things around before winning a Fourth Set tie-breaker to move into his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final. I am sure many more are to come for Tsitsipas, but he is going to need to have a monster serving day to win this one as far as I am concerned.
Either that or have Nadal's body let him down as it did twelve months ago in a defeat to Marin Cilic in Melbourne.
There is a real heartwarming story in the women's draw and you would have to be made of stone to not appreciate Petra Kvitova.
The two time Wimbledon Champion suffered a knife injury a little over two years ago and it has taken time for her to really return to the kind of form the Czech player can play. I've always enjoyed watching Kvitova play, especially when she is playing as well as she is in Australia and it is going to take something special to beat her.
Ashleigh Barty has nothing to be ashamed of having made it to a Grand Slam Quarter Final for the first time and the Australian should have plenty more to give as the 2019 season develops.
Petra Kvitova will face one of the players who has newly entered my favourite list- Danielle Collins.
The American is not your normal tennis interview and while that seems to rub some people up the wrong way, I love the fact that Collins is not shy to admit where she sees herself.
Confidence and brashness together can be hard for many to see, but I loved Muhammad Ali and Collins is backing up her own talk in a big way. She is great to watch on the court with emotion being worn on her sleeve and I hope the smart player coming out of College can use this tournament as a springboard for much better over the course of 2019.
Beating Petra Kvitova is going to be very difficult, but I know Collins will believe she can do that and her fight shown so far in this tournament suggests she won't crumble or give this one up easily. Unfortunately Kvitova doesn't ask to dictate on the court and this could be a really fun match for thos who like big hitting tennis.
On Day 10 we complete the Semi Final line up with Rod Laver Arena hosting the remaining four Quarter Final matches in succession. It is a great day for the fans, but a long day with a Night Session in place too, although I think the fans will get a lot of bang for their buck.
In my opinion the two women's matches are better than the two men's on paper, but tennis is played on the court and not on paper so hopefully it is another strong day.
Day 11 is the last where multiple Singles matches are played on the same day and the last three days of the tournament see the Singles match scheduled for the Night Session which is great news for those who have been staying up through the night to watch the tennis in the United Kingdom.
A strong Day 9 has kept the tournament ticking along in the way I would have hoped ten days ago, but there is still work to do to lock in a positive event to open 2019.
Milos Raonic - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: You could have been forgiven for thinking the Australian Open may have come too early for Milos Raonic who is returning from an injury hit 2018, while Lucas Pouille had never performed well at this Grand Slam. Yet here we are with these two men making the Quarter Final of the tournament and I can guarantee both Raonic and Pouille recognise the path that has opened to them.
It can put some pressure on players when they realise how much they can achieve by winning a match, but Raonic and Pouille have both played in Quarter Final matches at Slams before so they should understand what is expected of them.
Out of the two players it is Milos Raonic who has made the Semi Final and Final of Grand Slams before so he may feel a little less pressure than his opponent. The run to this Quarter Final would have likely surpassed many expectations Raonic has had for himself and it is very difficult to ignore the head to head record against Pouille which has seen Raonic win all three previous matches including at the Australian Open in straight sets in 2016.
The Raonic serve has been working to almost perfection and he has only faced five break points in his four matches here. However the Canadian will want to have played the big points a little better as he has been broken four times from those five break points faced, but I am not sure Pouille's average return game is going to get much joy out of the Raonic serve here.
The Frenchman has linked up with former Grand Slam Champion Amelie Mauresmo, but his return game at the Australian Open has remained average with just 16% of those games resulting in a break of serve. That return has been a real weakness for Pouille for some time and it says a lot that he has only created two break points against Raonic in three matches against the Canadian and the big server has held at over 97% of the time.
It puts some real pressure on Pouille and while he has been serving well and Raonic is not exactly Novak Djokovic when it comes to returning, mentally it will be a challenge to keep things going if he can't get near the Raonic serve. Even in the run to the Quarter Final and including the devastating win over Alexander Zverev, the Raonic return numbers are not that impressive.
They haven't needed to be to win matches though and you may think one or two breaks of serve is all Raonic is going to need to win this match relatively comfortably. Milos Raonic has had success attacking the Pouille serve in their three previous matches, although the one in 2018 on the grass courts of Stuttgart was unsurprisingly serve orientated.
Even then Raonic broke serve and he does have a break number of over 23% against Pouille and I do think the Canadian is serving well enough to win this match by a good margin.
Trusting Raonic to break serve and cover big spreads is not easy, but he has been in fine form in Australia and I would not be surprised if Pouille was to offer some lapses of concentration on which the Canadian can pounce upon.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There were some uncomfortable signs from Novak Djokovic at the end of his gruelling win over Daniil Medvedev and the World Number 1 admitted he will need some time to recover. He clutched his back and looked to be short of energy in a tough encounter against a young, hungry opponent who pushed Djokovic all the way to the finish line.
Ultimately Djokovic came through and will have had almost a full 48 hours before he is being asked to come back to the court. The match with Kei Nishikori should hold no surprises for Novak Djokovic with these two being paired together for the eighteenth time and more importantly is the fact that Nishikori has needed five sets in three of his four matches at the Australian Open.
Confidence will be high having made an unbeaten start to the 2019 season, but Nishikori has twice needed to come from two sets down including in the last Round against Pablo Carreno Busta. His opponent left the court steaming after a controversial point was awarded to Nishikori in the final set breaker, but you could see how much the win meant to Nishikori and his team.
Picking themselves up emotionally and physically won't be easy for Nishikori whose game does not match up well with Djokovic's. If the World Number 1 is close to 100% it really is going to be very difficult for Nishikori who was beaten at Wimbledon and the US Open by Djokovic in 2018 and both times relatively comfortably and by a wide enough margin to cover the games being asked of the Serb in this Quarter Final.
In the Grand Slam matches between these two, Djokovic holds at just under 85% of the time while Nishikori is down at 63%. That's a huge margin and I don't know how the Japanese star bridges that while those numbers become 83% and 53% for those players respectively when they have played on the hard courts.
Novak Djokovic has been in very good form throughout this tournament and while these players are holding at about the same rate, it is Djokovic who is breaking at almost a 20% higher rate.
The fitness issues for the Number 1 Seed are a concern, but there is no way Nishikori can be in great physical shape for this one. The match with Pablo Carreno Busta was a long one with intense rallies and I will back Novak Djokovic to continue his dominance of this opponent with the assumption he is relatively in good shape to compete.
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: This looks to be a very interesting Quarter Final match between the current US Open Champion and a player who has flattered to deceive in the Grand Slam events. Naomi Osaka is playing at her home Grand Slam with the Australian Open representing Asia and the Pacific, but she seems to be very level headed and her experiences of the US Open just a few months ago will stand her in good stead.
For Elina Svitolina winning the WTA Finals in Singapore was expected to be the big breakthrough she needed to show she can handle the pressure of playing at these huge tournaments. She has a chance to show what she has learned but you can't ignore the fact Svitolina has never been beyond the Quarter Final at any Grand Slam and she has really fallen away in her three previous matches played at this stage of a Slam.
In the last couple of Rounds Svitolina could have easily crumbled in her matches against Shuai Zhang and Madison Keys, but both times she was able to rally and then show some toughness to go through. I do think the win in Singapore will have helped her, but this is another big test against someone who hits the ball very hard and can take the racquet out of Svitolina's hands.
Naomi Osaka has needed three sets in each of the last couple of Rounds and she has fallen a set down in both of those matches before fighting back. That is impressive enough, but I have to say I have really admired the fact she has worked out two very awkward opponents and not allowed the defensive skills of Su-Wei Hsieh and Anastasija Sevastova to rattle her.
In this tournament Osaka has been producing slightly better numbers on both the serve and return but this does feel like a close match. It is Elina Svitolina who won both their head to head matches on the hard courts in 2018 in Dubai and Miami and she did have the better of the return of serve out of the two players and that could be a critical factor in such a close looking match.
My slightest of edges goes to Naomi Osaka though who I think can have the power to dictate the direction this match goes. Both Zhang and Keys showed you can rattle the Svitolina game if you start hitting through the court and the Ukrainian is under some pressure to show she is capable of winning a Slam having never been beyond this stage before.
The pressure has gotten to her in those matches previously and I will back Naomi Osaka to move through to another Grand Slam Semi Final.
Serena Williams-Karolina Pliskova over 21.5 games: This is the Quarter Final I am looking forward to the most on Wednesday when Serena Williams takes on big hitting Karolina Pliskova. The top half of the women's draw is loaded with talent and all three matches left to play to determine the Finalist from his half of the draw look like they could be special on paper, but let's first focus on this Quarter Final.
In the 2016 US Open, Karolina Pliskova stunned Serena Williams in the Semi Final, but in 2018 Serena had some revenge when beating the Czech player in the Quarter Final. Both matches could have easily gone the other way too and I do think this is could be another real battle.
Both players are very much relying on a big first serve and then being able to play first strike tennis. Neither of these two players will want to offer up too many second serves for the other to attack while taking the break point opportunities when they come up will be very important, especially for Karolina Pliskova.
She only took 2/12 at the US Open in September, but Pliskova has been very strong on the return in this tournament and taken 20/43 break points created in her four matches. A crushing win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round has kept the roll going after the Czech player won the title in Brisbane while the serve has been firing as she would like.
Of course Serena Williams will test both of those areas of Pliskova's game, but the American is coming off a tough Fourth Round win over Simona Halep when she only just held herself together in the final set. That might be the low point of this tournament for Serena Williams who continues to produce big serves, but I do think she is perhaps more vulnerable than she has been in throughout her career.
Players are not overawed by Williams as they once were and Pliskova has to feel her best tennis will give her every chance of success. I am not sure to be honest, but I do think she has the capability of winning at least one set in this match which should help push the match over the total games line set.
If they both serve as well as they can, I can see this match having two tight sets being competed and there is every chance they need a decider to work out the outcome. None of their previous three matches have gone the distance which would be a concern, but I do think both players are performing at a very high level that suggests neither will allow themselves to be steamrolled out of the way.
There is always a fear Serena Williams will do that to any opponent when she really feels her tennis, but I will back at least twenty-two games to be needed in this Quarter Final that should excite the fans.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams-Karolina Pliskova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 53-42, + 15.65 Units (187 Units Staked, + 8.37% Yield)
Monday, 21 January 2019
Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2019 (January 22nd)
The Australian Open is really heating up now with the Quarter Final line up set in both the men's and women's draws and a number of the big names still involved in trying to add to the Grand Slam titles they have won previously.
However it has been a good tournament for some young players, while others have reached the latter stages of a Grand Slam in a bid to perhaps win one of these major tournaments before their window closes.
It should make for a fascinating couple of days and I have to say I have mainly enjoyed the tennis that I have been able to see over the last nine days. I do still feel it would be a major surprise if the winner of the men's tournament did come out of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, while Serena Williams is the player to beat in the women's draw but ultimately this will all be played out on the court in the next few days as the first Grand Slam of the 2019 season comes to an end.
Day 8 proved to be better than Day 7 and the positive position of this tournament remains, but things could still change with some poor selections and bad luck in the next few days.
I am going to keep chugging along and looking to make the right plays as I focus on the bottom half of the men's and women's draws and the four Quarter Finals to be played on this day.
Roberto Bautista Agut v Stefanos Tsitsipas: There will be an element of surprise in seeing these two players competing for a spot in the Australian Open Semi Final and the absence of Roger Federer from his section of the draw is an unfamiliar sight at this tournament in recent years. The two time defending Champion was dumped out by Stefanos Tsitsipas after missing a host of break points and it is going to be up to the Greek to regain his energy and to level out his physical and emotional effort put into the Fourth Round win over Federer.
So many have compared it to Federer's own big moment back in 2001 when he was able to beat Pete Sampras at Wimbledon in the Fourth Round, but what is less likely to be put out is that Federer actually lost his next match at that tournament. He wouldn't go on and win his first Grand Slam until two years later when beating Mark Philippoussis at that same tournament.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to receive plenty of support in this Quarter Final which may make things easier for him to deal with the emotion of beating Federer in the last Round. Back in 2001 Federer had to play local hope Tim Henman in the Wimbledon Quarter Final after beating Sampras, but it is still a huge test for Tsitsipas to back up his biggest Grand Slam win when many suggest it could be a passing of the torch moment.
He may also benefit from the fact he is playing Roberto Bautista Agut who at 30 years old is playing in his first Grand Slam Quarter Final too. It has been a very difficult tournament for the Spaniard as he has needed to dig deep three times already to win a deciding fifth set to move through the Rounds, but confidence has to be high having won the title in Doha prior to the four wins he has put together at the Australian Open.
Fatigue and accumulation of the time spent on court is an obvious concern for Roberto Bautista Agut, but I do think he is playing at an incredible standard and can ride the momentum to success. Both players have been superb when it comes to serving at this tournament, but Bautista Agut has a real advantage when it comes to the return of serve having broken at 24.7% this week compared with Tsitsipas who is down at 13.3%.
The Spaniard has created at least ten break points in every match he has played and is clearly the more comfortable returner on the hard courts. Some may say the number of break points created is not a major factor considering the time Bautista Agut has spent on court, but he has only played two more sets than Tsitsipas who has not created more than seven break points in three of the four matches he has played.
Tsitsipas was doing something similar in his run to the Canadian Masters Final back in August 2018 and he does seem to have a knack for playing the big points very, very well. He is going to need all of that to win this one though and I think his opponent is playing at a very high standard and looks to have the real edge when it comes to the return of serve that can see him win this as the underdog in the match.
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: The headlines might have been taken by Stefanos Tsitsipas in his win over Roger Federer, but another very young and talented player from the ATP Tour made his first big impact at a Grand Slam event. While the Greek player is still 20 years old, Francis Tiafoe was beating Grigor Dimitrov on the day of his 21st birthday to make it through to his first Grand Slam Quarter Final.
It was clearly an emotional moment for the American who had not shown much form going into the Australian Open to think this run was about to happen. Beating Kevin Anderson and Dimitrov will have given Tiafoe a lot of belief that is he is going to be able to compete with the best players on the Tour, but in this Quarter Final Tiafoe is facing one of the very best.
Rafael Nadal might have had some fitness concerns coming into the Australian Open, but those have not really been evident as he has breezed through four Rounds at the tournament. The crushing wins over Alex de Minaur and Tomas Berdych in the last couple of Rounds have been very impressive and Nadal is a big favourite to reach the Final when you think of the four names left in the bottom half of the draw.
If you think Nadal is going to have that in his mind you have another think coming because the Spaniard has based his career on making sure he works for every point and treats every point like it is the last he is going to play.
You always have to expect young players are going to show improvement, but Tiafoe's service numbers have been considerably higher than 2018. It is a small sample though so I am expecting to get a much better idea as to where his serving is when he faces Nadal who has broken opponents 41.2% of the time in this tournament as he has comfortably move through the draw.
The change in the service action has also reaped rewards during the Australian Open and Nadal has only been broken twice in the tournament. Both of those breaks came in the opening match and he has held serve 96.2% of the time in this event which should mean he is going to exert plenty of pressure on Tiafoe throughout this match.
Francis Tiafoe is going to have to improve his return if he is going to offer some sort of resistance to Nadal and this will have to be a day when he produces his very best serving. Picking himself up from an emotional win just two days ago is going to be very tough and his overall numbers against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts have shown there is still plenty of room for improvement for Tiafoe.
I don't think it will all go Nadal's way with Tiafoe plenty talented to at least give the veteran something to think about, but I think this match is going to see Nadal eventually start wearing down an opponent and pulling away for a good looking win and a place in the Semi Final.
Danielle Collins v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I might have picked Danielle Collins with the start on the handicap against Angelique Kerber, but even I was not ready to see the American crush a multiple time Grand Slam Champion for the loss of just two games. After spending time on the College circuit in her home nation, Collins is making up for lost time and her hard court pedigree makes her a very dangerous opponent for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Before this tournament Collins had only ever played in the main draw of five previous Grand Slam events and her combined record was 0-5 from those tournaments. She suffered three First Round losses last season while she failed to make the main draw in Melbourne having lost in the final Qualifying Round.
Even with that in mind Collins has managed to get inside the top 40 of the World Rankings and is set for a move further up at the end of this tournament. Her numbers in Melbourne have been improving in each passing match and having to break Julia Goerges to stay in the tournament on Day 1 seems a long time ago now.
It is hard to see how Collins can maintain this level and that is what Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will be thinking as she enters this match as the favourite. While her numbers are better than 2018 on the hard courts, the Russian has not massively exceeded the kind of level she had been producing in the early 2019 matches in order to make it through the draw and the same cannot be said for Collins.
There is a different pressure on Pavlyuchenkova though she bids to make a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time. She has suffered number of Quarter Final defeats over the years, but she may feel there isn't much of a window left for Pavlyuchenkova to potentially win a Grand Slam title whereas Collins should be able to play this match with a nothing to lose attitude having surpassed all expectations to get here.
Over the last couple of years Collins has shown a little more form on the hard courts than Pavlyuchenkova and coupled with the hotter performances in Melbourne I do think she can be backed as the underdog. Both possess strong first serves, which are going to be very important, but it is Collins who has the slightly better ability to protect the second serve that may prove decisive.
They have similar return numbers from this tournament but I do think Collins has been protecting serve a little better and I will look to ride the American's momentum into the Semi Final as the underdog.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: These two players contested the Final in Sydney a couple of days before the Australian Open begun and both players have taken the confidence from that tournament into this one.
On that occasion it was Petra Kvitova who came from a set down to beat Ashleigh Barty and that will help her hold the mental advantage in this match as the Czech player is now 3-0 against Barty in her career.
Like in Sydney it will be Barty who receives the large majority of the backing from the crowd, but Kvitova doesn't really strike me as someone who will be that bothered by that. Instead she should be focused on having the chance to match her best ever run at the Australian Open and being in a position to win a third Grand Slam title having previously won twice at Wimbledon.
The performances have been scary from Kvitova who has bludgeoned her way past her opponents and not really been threatened at all. In her eight sets won at the Australian Open, only Belinda Bencic managed to reach four games in a single set, while it was Bencic and Magdalena Ryabrikova who have had the most success against Kvitova with five games won in their defeats to her.
Ashleigh Barty has not been much less impressive and her win over Maria Sharapova in the Fourth Round despite dropping the first set will really help her belief. After leaving tennis to play cricket for two years, Barty has come back and looked like one of the best players on the WTA Tour, but reaching a Quarter Final for the first time will feel like a real breakthrough for her.
There are still some questions about Barty's ability to challenge the best players on the Tour and her record against top 10 Ranked opponents is not that impressive. She has gone 2-1 in that spot in 2019, but Barty was just 1-4 in 2018 and her numbers really took a significant dent when playing those opponents.
On the bare numbers there isn't much between these players, but Kvitova may just have the slight edge on both the serve and return. In matches like this one that can make all the difference while the head to head can't be ignored as I would surely expect Kvitova to come into this match knowing she can find a win no matter what situation arises early in the match.
It is much more imperative for Barty to get off to a good start to give herself a shot of confidence that she can compete at this level against a player in some of the best form she has shown on a tennis court. Ultimately I have a little bit more faith in the Petra Kvitova serve and this is a player who is going to dictate the direction of the match with her big hitting.
At times that has let Kvitova down as she won't shy away from looking for winners even when making unforced errors galore, but the form and confidence should give the higher Ranked player enough of an edge in the sets played to win and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 50-41, + 11.73 Units (179 Units Staked, + 6.55% Yield)
However it has been a good tournament for some young players, while others have reached the latter stages of a Grand Slam in a bid to perhaps win one of these major tournaments before their window closes.
It should make for a fascinating couple of days and I have to say I have mainly enjoyed the tennis that I have been able to see over the last nine days. I do still feel it would be a major surprise if the winner of the men's tournament did come out of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, while Serena Williams is the player to beat in the women's draw but ultimately this will all be played out on the court in the next few days as the first Grand Slam of the 2019 season comes to an end.
Day 8 proved to be better than Day 7 and the positive position of this tournament remains, but things could still change with some poor selections and bad luck in the next few days.
I am going to keep chugging along and looking to make the right plays as I focus on the bottom half of the men's and women's draws and the four Quarter Finals to be played on this day.
Roberto Bautista Agut v Stefanos Tsitsipas: There will be an element of surprise in seeing these two players competing for a spot in the Australian Open Semi Final and the absence of Roger Federer from his section of the draw is an unfamiliar sight at this tournament in recent years. The two time defending Champion was dumped out by Stefanos Tsitsipas after missing a host of break points and it is going to be up to the Greek to regain his energy and to level out his physical and emotional effort put into the Fourth Round win over Federer.
So many have compared it to Federer's own big moment back in 2001 when he was able to beat Pete Sampras at Wimbledon in the Fourth Round, but what is less likely to be put out is that Federer actually lost his next match at that tournament. He wouldn't go on and win his first Grand Slam until two years later when beating Mark Philippoussis at that same tournament.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to receive plenty of support in this Quarter Final which may make things easier for him to deal with the emotion of beating Federer in the last Round. Back in 2001 Federer had to play local hope Tim Henman in the Wimbledon Quarter Final after beating Sampras, but it is still a huge test for Tsitsipas to back up his biggest Grand Slam win when many suggest it could be a passing of the torch moment.
He may also benefit from the fact he is playing Roberto Bautista Agut who at 30 years old is playing in his first Grand Slam Quarter Final too. It has been a very difficult tournament for the Spaniard as he has needed to dig deep three times already to win a deciding fifth set to move through the Rounds, but confidence has to be high having won the title in Doha prior to the four wins he has put together at the Australian Open.
Fatigue and accumulation of the time spent on court is an obvious concern for Roberto Bautista Agut, but I do think he is playing at an incredible standard and can ride the momentum to success. Both players have been superb when it comes to serving at this tournament, but Bautista Agut has a real advantage when it comes to the return of serve having broken at 24.7% this week compared with Tsitsipas who is down at 13.3%.
The Spaniard has created at least ten break points in every match he has played and is clearly the more comfortable returner on the hard courts. Some may say the number of break points created is not a major factor considering the time Bautista Agut has spent on court, but he has only played two more sets than Tsitsipas who has not created more than seven break points in three of the four matches he has played.
Tsitsipas was doing something similar in his run to the Canadian Masters Final back in August 2018 and he does seem to have a knack for playing the big points very, very well. He is going to need all of that to win this one though and I think his opponent is playing at a very high standard and looks to have the real edge when it comes to the return of serve that can see him win this as the underdog in the match.
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: The headlines might have been taken by Stefanos Tsitsipas in his win over Roger Federer, but another very young and talented player from the ATP Tour made his first big impact at a Grand Slam event. While the Greek player is still 20 years old, Francis Tiafoe was beating Grigor Dimitrov on the day of his 21st birthday to make it through to his first Grand Slam Quarter Final.
It was clearly an emotional moment for the American who had not shown much form going into the Australian Open to think this run was about to happen. Beating Kevin Anderson and Dimitrov will have given Tiafoe a lot of belief that is he is going to be able to compete with the best players on the Tour, but in this Quarter Final Tiafoe is facing one of the very best.
Rafael Nadal might have had some fitness concerns coming into the Australian Open, but those have not really been evident as he has breezed through four Rounds at the tournament. The crushing wins over Alex de Minaur and Tomas Berdych in the last couple of Rounds have been very impressive and Nadal is a big favourite to reach the Final when you think of the four names left in the bottom half of the draw.
If you think Nadal is going to have that in his mind you have another think coming because the Spaniard has based his career on making sure he works for every point and treats every point like it is the last he is going to play.
You always have to expect young players are going to show improvement, but Tiafoe's service numbers have been considerably higher than 2018. It is a small sample though so I am expecting to get a much better idea as to where his serving is when he faces Nadal who has broken opponents 41.2% of the time in this tournament as he has comfortably move through the draw.
The change in the service action has also reaped rewards during the Australian Open and Nadal has only been broken twice in the tournament. Both of those breaks came in the opening match and he has held serve 96.2% of the time in this event which should mean he is going to exert plenty of pressure on Tiafoe throughout this match.
Francis Tiafoe is going to have to improve his return if he is going to offer some sort of resistance to Nadal and this will have to be a day when he produces his very best serving. Picking himself up from an emotional win just two days ago is going to be very tough and his overall numbers against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts have shown there is still plenty of room for improvement for Tiafoe.
I don't think it will all go Nadal's way with Tiafoe plenty talented to at least give the veteran something to think about, but I think this match is going to see Nadal eventually start wearing down an opponent and pulling away for a good looking win and a place in the Semi Final.
Danielle Collins v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I might have picked Danielle Collins with the start on the handicap against Angelique Kerber, but even I was not ready to see the American crush a multiple time Grand Slam Champion for the loss of just two games. After spending time on the College circuit in her home nation, Collins is making up for lost time and her hard court pedigree makes her a very dangerous opponent for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Before this tournament Collins had only ever played in the main draw of five previous Grand Slam events and her combined record was 0-5 from those tournaments. She suffered three First Round losses last season while she failed to make the main draw in Melbourne having lost in the final Qualifying Round.
Even with that in mind Collins has managed to get inside the top 40 of the World Rankings and is set for a move further up at the end of this tournament. Her numbers in Melbourne have been improving in each passing match and having to break Julia Goerges to stay in the tournament on Day 1 seems a long time ago now.
It is hard to see how Collins can maintain this level and that is what Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will be thinking as she enters this match as the favourite. While her numbers are better than 2018 on the hard courts, the Russian has not massively exceeded the kind of level she had been producing in the early 2019 matches in order to make it through the draw and the same cannot be said for Collins.
There is a different pressure on Pavlyuchenkova though she bids to make a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time. She has suffered number of Quarter Final defeats over the years, but she may feel there isn't much of a window left for Pavlyuchenkova to potentially win a Grand Slam title whereas Collins should be able to play this match with a nothing to lose attitude having surpassed all expectations to get here.
Over the last couple of years Collins has shown a little more form on the hard courts than Pavlyuchenkova and coupled with the hotter performances in Melbourne I do think she can be backed as the underdog. Both possess strong first serves, which are going to be very important, but it is Collins who has the slightly better ability to protect the second serve that may prove decisive.
They have similar return numbers from this tournament but I do think Collins has been protecting serve a little better and I will look to ride the American's momentum into the Semi Final as the underdog.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: These two players contested the Final in Sydney a couple of days before the Australian Open begun and both players have taken the confidence from that tournament into this one.
On that occasion it was Petra Kvitova who came from a set down to beat Ashleigh Barty and that will help her hold the mental advantage in this match as the Czech player is now 3-0 against Barty in her career.
Like in Sydney it will be Barty who receives the large majority of the backing from the crowd, but Kvitova doesn't really strike me as someone who will be that bothered by that. Instead she should be focused on having the chance to match her best ever run at the Australian Open and being in a position to win a third Grand Slam title having previously won twice at Wimbledon.
The performances have been scary from Kvitova who has bludgeoned her way past her opponents and not really been threatened at all. In her eight sets won at the Australian Open, only Belinda Bencic managed to reach four games in a single set, while it was Bencic and Magdalena Ryabrikova who have had the most success against Kvitova with five games won in their defeats to her.
Ashleigh Barty has not been much less impressive and her win over Maria Sharapova in the Fourth Round despite dropping the first set will really help her belief. After leaving tennis to play cricket for two years, Barty has come back and looked like one of the best players on the WTA Tour, but reaching a Quarter Final for the first time will feel like a real breakthrough for her.
There are still some questions about Barty's ability to challenge the best players on the Tour and her record against top 10 Ranked opponents is not that impressive. She has gone 2-1 in that spot in 2019, but Barty was just 1-4 in 2018 and her numbers really took a significant dent when playing those opponents.
On the bare numbers there isn't much between these players, but Kvitova may just have the slight edge on both the serve and return. In matches like this one that can make all the difference while the head to head can't be ignored as I would surely expect Kvitova to come into this match knowing she can find a win no matter what situation arises early in the match.
It is much more imperative for Barty to get off to a good start to give herself a shot of confidence that she can compete at this level against a player in some of the best form she has shown on a tennis court. Ultimately I have a little bit more faith in the Petra Kvitova serve and this is a player who is going to dictate the direction of the match with her big hitting.
At times that has let Kvitova down as she won't shy away from looking for winners even when making unforced errors galore, but the form and confidence should give the higher Ranked player enough of an edge in the sets played to win and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 50-41, + 11.73 Units (179 Units Staked, + 6.55% Yield)
Sunday, 20 January 2019
Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2019 (January 21st)
The Quarter Final line up is beginning to take shape with half of the matches in both the men's and women's half of the draw.
One surprise is the fact that Roger Federer is not going to be one of the eight remaining players in the men's draw after he was beaten in four sets in the Fourth Round against Stefanos Tsitsipas. It was a huge effort from the young Greek player, but Federer was right to be critical of himself and the failure to take any of a host of break points secured in the second set and that really did feel like the key part of the match.
I also tend to agree with Federer in calling this a changing of the guard would be premature especially with both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal favourites to make it through to the Final from this point.
Rafael Nadal in particular has looked very, very good so far in the tournament and the exit of Federer has opened up the bottom half of the draw for him. The Spaniard helped himself by crushing Tomas Berdych in the Fourth Round and it is hard to see which of the other three players in his half of the draw can stop him reaching another Australian Open Final.
The women's draw didn't escape the upsets on Sunday with both Sloane Stephens and Angelique Kerber exiting the tournament. The winner of the Petra Kvitova versus Ashleigh Barty Quarter Final will be a big favourite to reach the Final, but Danielle Collins and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have nothing to lose having surpassed all expectations by making the last eight.
On Day 8 the remaining Quarter Final matches will be set as the Fourth Round comes to a conclusion. There are some top matches to come on Monday as we begin to get closer and closer to the business end of the tournament.
Will there be more upsets? It is obviously possible, but the I am not so sure about it compared to the bottom half of the draw where those upsets have mainly resided.
Alexander Zverev-Milos Raonic over 44.5 games: Once you get to the Fourth Round of any of the Grand Slams that are played over the course of a season you have to expect to see some really good looking matches being put together.
The Australian Open is no different and this match between Milos Raonic and Alexander Zverev really has all the makings of being a classic.
Both players have been in very strong form in Australia and both possess a very big serve that can offer up plenty of short balls and cheap points that makes them hard to beat. Alexander Zverev is yet to have the same kind of impact at the Grand Slam level as opponent Milos Raonic has been able to have, but he is coming into the match as a narrow favourite although I am really finding it very difficult to separate the players.
One key difference between Zverev and Raonic is the performances against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018. The former had a 10-5 winning record, while Raonic was 2-4 in those matches, but the numbers for the two players were very similar and this has the feeling of a match that will need at least four sets and possibly go the distance as it did when Zverev and Raonic met at Wimbledon in 2017.
Over the last week both Zverev and Raonic have very strong serving numbers with the German holding 88% of his service games and Raonic up at 93%. One difference is Zverev seems to have gotten more out of his return game, and I do think that may end up being what separates the two, but the serving should lead the day and I would not be surprised if we are going to see a couple of tie-breakers and potentially a match going the distance.
These two are playing each other for the third time and the numbers from the previous two matches shows how evenly they have been matches. Neither of those matches came on the hard courts though and I do think the serving could be a bigger weapon for both players in this big Fourth Round match.
The total games have been set on the high side, which is not a surprise, but I do think there is a real chance this number would be covered as long as the match goes at least four sets.
Borna Coric - 4.5 games v Lucas Pouille: The majority of headlines at the Australian Open would have been earned by the big names and those creating the big upsets, but these two players have just focused on working their way through the draw. While Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev are perhaps leading the way for the next generation of men's players, Borna Coric may be the best of the lot and the Croatian has already matched his best Grand Slam run and looking for a first Quarter Final at this level.
Lucas Pouille has been more familiar with featuring in the second week of a Grand Slam compared with Coric, but his back to back Quarter Final runs came at Wimbledon and the US Open in 2016. Since then Pouille has only reached a single Fourth Round in eight Slam appearances so his run to the second week has perhaps been even more surprising than Coric's.
It has to be said that Pouille was perhaps overachieving by reaching back to back Slam Quarter Finals back in 2016 and his numbers have remained pretty average on the hard courts. There is no doubting that the Frenchman has some talent, but he is perhaps still a little over-rated by some of the layers after some eye-catching runs in tournaments, but Pouille is far from consistent.
Last week was a tougher run through the first three Rounds than what Coric experienced and Pouille did need five sets in the last Round. The serve remains the key weapon for Pouille but there has been little to suggest he will maintain the numbers he has been producing in Melbourne over a long term.
There is also a pressure on the Frenchman's shoulders considering his return game is one of the poorer ones out there, especially amongst those in the top 50 of the World Rankings. I would fully expect Borna Coric to keep the pressure on Pouille having held 91% of service games in Australia and also breaking at over 28%.
Borna Coric is also perhaps serving better than expected, but he has shown improvement behind that shot in each of the last three seasons on the hard courts and is a player on the rise. It is the return of serve that the Croatian possesses which I expect to impact this match the most and the head to head is also 2-0 in favour of Coric with both of those wins coming on the hard courts.
He has managed to break the Pouille serve at just under 35% of the return games played in those two matches and I think the match up does work for Coric. As long as he can keep his nerves in check I would think Coric is good enough to win and cover this number.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: An injury suffered by Pablo Carreno Busta at the US Open saw the backend of his 2018 season fall away and the run of losses continued in Auckland to open 2019. The Spaniard has been surprisingly effective in the Grand Slams played on the hard courts in the last couple of years though and perhaps the return to the longer format of the sport was exactly what he needed.
Pablo Carreno Busta has won three matches in a row for the first time since the tournament in Winston Salem in the week prior to the US Open beginning. There clearly must have been some confidence earned from coming from 0-2 down to beat Luca Vanni in the First Round of the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has played well since then.
He has been playing some strong tennis behind the serve and there is no doubt that the Spaniard is going to need to be at his best on that side of his game if he is going to upset the odds here.
While Carreno Busta came through some hard times to win in the First Round, Kei Nishikori had to dig deep in his first two Rounds before comfortably dismissing Joao Sousa in the Third Round. Those wins means Nishikori is now up to 7-0 for 2019 having won the title in Brisbane to open 2019 and his serving numbers have been stronger than Carreno Busta's in the tournament while having a similar break number and that despite playing against the monster serve possesses by Ivo Karlovic.
Nishikori has been winning 8% more points behind serve than Carreno Busta in the first three Rounds of the tournament while there really isn't much in the returning statistics between them.
The match is not going to be straight-forward because there will be some long, gruelling rallies to deal with as neither player can really hope to earn too many easy points behind the serve. With some fitness doubts about Carreno Busta going into the tournament, those could show up the longer this match goes and I do think the superior play of Nishikori will eventually come to the fore.
It shouldn't matter if this needs four sets either as I can see Nishikori wearing down Carreno Busta and potentially putting up a set with a couple of breaks secured in it. That should give him every chance of covering this number in a victory.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: If anyone thinks the veterans are going to have an easy time holding off the 'Next Gen' of men's tennis then Stefanos Tsitsipas' win over Roger Federer on Sunday would have perhaps changed some opinions.
I also expect that win to be a very important to the old guard to perhaps refocus and double down on the efforts. On Tuesday Rafael Nadal will take on 21 year old Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final, but before that the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic takes on Daniil Medvedev who recently reached the Final in Brisbane.
The Russian youngster has been in great form in 2019 and he has built on a very successful time on the hard courts over the last six months of 2018. Daniil Medvedev has been strong behind the serve and his numbers at the Australian Open have been pretty incredible to put it frankly.
Any player holding serve at over 92% of the time and breaking at 47% is going to be winning matches very easily and that is what Medvedev has done. Sometimes those numbers can be skewed because of a kind draw, but Medvedev has beaten Ryan Harrison and David Goffin in the last couple of Rounds and confidence has to be at an extremely high level.
This does mark a step up for Medvedev who has not beaten any player inside the top 10 of the World Rankings on the hard courts since the beginning of last season. He is 0-6 in that time but I can only respect the fact that Medvedev has won at least one set in four of those matches even if his serve and return of serve have not been quite as effective in those matches.
I expect Novak Djokovic to offer the sternest of tests for Medvedev and you can't ignore how well the World Number 1 is playing at a tournament he has won six times before. With Roger Federer out, Novak Djokovic is the only player left in the men's tournament who can become the first to win the Australian Open seven times and he has been in dominant form in Melbourne.
Outside of 'Floodgate-gate', Djokovic has looked very comfortable and this is a player who has been one of the toughest returners to face. He might not have quite the same level of success as Medvedev, but Djokovic has broken in 43% of return games in the tournament and I think he is going to prove too much for his young opponent.
They have met twice before, but Medvedev is a much improved player since those matches in 2017. However what can't be ignored is the fact that Djokovic was really struggling during their two previous matches and still broke serve often in those two matches with Medvedev yet now is back to the level of World Number 1.
I do have a lot of time for Medvedev and he is developing into a top player like many expected of him. However I think Djokovic is going to be ready for this match after seeing what happened to Federer and I think he is playing at a level that will be hard for Medvedev to match.
This is a big spread, but Djokovic showed how strong the return of serve can be in his wins over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Denis Shapovalov and I think he is going to break down the Medvedev game and pull away from his opponent.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: Two players who have been a regular feature of the top 10 of the WTA World Rankings meet in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. The reason for that is Garbine Muguruza, a two time Grand Slam Champion, has struggled over the last year and see her Ranking drop down to Number 18.
The Spaniard has been in really good form in Melbourne over the last week and Muguruza is one of those players that can get very hot the deeper she gets into the tournament. Her title win at Wimbledon in 2017 really came out of left-field so I would not be too concerned about her overall form going into the Australian Open.
2018 did prove to be a tough year for Muguruza but some of that is down to the standards she has set for herself and perception of how she has played. Her numbers are solid enough on the hard courts to think she is going to be tough to beat, but Muguruza has to overcome a poor head to head record against Karolina Pliskova to get through to the Quarter Final.
While Muguruza would have been disappointed with her 2018 season, Karolina Pliskova really did have a tough season. You would expect the Czech player to be much more effective on the hard courts than she was in 2018, but the turn of the calendar year might have been all she needed to get back to a more realistic level.
So far 2019 has been a very productive time for Pliskova who has won all seven matches played having won the title in Brisbane to open the new season. Karolina Pliskova has needed three sets to win her last couple of matches here against Madison Brengle and Camila Giorgi, but she has been playing better than those dropped sets would suggest.
Both players have been in good nick and I do think this is going to be a close match, but that is where the Pliskova 7-2 head to head advantage over Muguruza could make the difference in the tight moments. Eight of those matches have been played on the hard courts and Pliskova has won seven of those although I won't ignore the fact that they have not played each other in 2018.
In previous matches the Pliskova serve has been stronger than the Muguruza delivery and proved to be the difference in matches. The Spaniard has not been able to generate nearly as many break point chances as Pliskova and I think the bigger serve of the Czech player will make the difference in a match that could go the distance on Monday.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: Not many players have been able to beat both Williams sisters at Grand Slam events, but Simona Halep will be looking to add her name to that list. After beating Venus Williams in the Third Round, the World Number 1 faces Australian Open favourite Serena Williams in the Fourth Round and this time Simona Halep is the underdog.
You can't blame the layers for thinking that way considering the form that Serena Williams has produced at the Australian Open. She has dominated all three players she has faced, while Serena also has an incredibly strong record against Halep although the two players are meeting for the first time since September 2016.
In that time Halep has become a Grand Slam Champion and she also reached the Final at the Australian Open so I don't imagine the Romanian will feel she is the same player that has lost eight of nine matches against Serena Williams.
There were some worries about the Halep fitness going into the Australian Open but she has been playing well in Melbourne. While the serve may not be as big a weapon as the one that Williams possesses, Halep has been using the angles on the delivery effectively and she does back it up with some very consistent tennis off the ground.
It is the return of serve that has really helped Halep come through three Rounds at the Australian Open, but facing the Serena serve is the biggest challenge in women's tennis. In three matches Serena has faced just three break points and she has been as close to perfect on the serve as you could ask of any player either male or female.
Serena Williams will know about the qualities of Halep and she has to make sure her powerful groundstrokes are not gifting too many unforced errors away. So far she has been doing that and Williams has also been winning an incredible 57% of points AGAINST the serve.
I do think Halep is going to offer challenges to Serena Williams that the American has not seen so far in the Australian Open. However I am not sure it will be enough to win the match and Williams has been playing to a level that should see her break the Halep serve on enough occasions to cover this spread even if she needs three sets to beat the World Number 1 like she did when these players last met.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Milos Raonic Over 44.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 45-38, + 8.67 Units (163 Units Staked, + 5.32% Yield)
One surprise is the fact that Roger Federer is not going to be one of the eight remaining players in the men's draw after he was beaten in four sets in the Fourth Round against Stefanos Tsitsipas. It was a huge effort from the young Greek player, but Federer was right to be critical of himself and the failure to take any of a host of break points secured in the second set and that really did feel like the key part of the match.
I also tend to agree with Federer in calling this a changing of the guard would be premature especially with both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal favourites to make it through to the Final from this point.
Rafael Nadal in particular has looked very, very good so far in the tournament and the exit of Federer has opened up the bottom half of the draw for him. The Spaniard helped himself by crushing Tomas Berdych in the Fourth Round and it is hard to see which of the other three players in his half of the draw can stop him reaching another Australian Open Final.
The women's draw didn't escape the upsets on Sunday with both Sloane Stephens and Angelique Kerber exiting the tournament. The winner of the Petra Kvitova versus Ashleigh Barty Quarter Final will be a big favourite to reach the Final, but Danielle Collins and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have nothing to lose having surpassed all expectations by making the last eight.
On Day 8 the remaining Quarter Final matches will be set as the Fourth Round comes to a conclusion. There are some top matches to come on Monday as we begin to get closer and closer to the business end of the tournament.
Will there be more upsets? It is obviously possible, but the I am not so sure about it compared to the bottom half of the draw where those upsets have mainly resided.
Alexander Zverev-Milos Raonic over 44.5 games: Once you get to the Fourth Round of any of the Grand Slams that are played over the course of a season you have to expect to see some really good looking matches being put together.
The Australian Open is no different and this match between Milos Raonic and Alexander Zverev really has all the makings of being a classic.
Both players have been in very strong form in Australia and both possess a very big serve that can offer up plenty of short balls and cheap points that makes them hard to beat. Alexander Zverev is yet to have the same kind of impact at the Grand Slam level as opponent Milos Raonic has been able to have, but he is coming into the match as a narrow favourite although I am really finding it very difficult to separate the players.
One key difference between Zverev and Raonic is the performances against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018. The former had a 10-5 winning record, while Raonic was 2-4 in those matches, but the numbers for the two players were very similar and this has the feeling of a match that will need at least four sets and possibly go the distance as it did when Zverev and Raonic met at Wimbledon in 2017.
Over the last week both Zverev and Raonic have very strong serving numbers with the German holding 88% of his service games and Raonic up at 93%. One difference is Zverev seems to have gotten more out of his return game, and I do think that may end up being what separates the two, but the serving should lead the day and I would not be surprised if we are going to see a couple of tie-breakers and potentially a match going the distance.
These two are playing each other for the third time and the numbers from the previous two matches shows how evenly they have been matches. Neither of those matches came on the hard courts though and I do think the serving could be a bigger weapon for both players in this big Fourth Round match.
The total games have been set on the high side, which is not a surprise, but I do think there is a real chance this number would be covered as long as the match goes at least four sets.
Borna Coric - 4.5 games v Lucas Pouille: The majority of headlines at the Australian Open would have been earned by the big names and those creating the big upsets, but these two players have just focused on working their way through the draw. While Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev are perhaps leading the way for the next generation of men's players, Borna Coric may be the best of the lot and the Croatian has already matched his best Grand Slam run and looking for a first Quarter Final at this level.
Lucas Pouille has been more familiar with featuring in the second week of a Grand Slam compared with Coric, but his back to back Quarter Final runs came at Wimbledon and the US Open in 2016. Since then Pouille has only reached a single Fourth Round in eight Slam appearances so his run to the second week has perhaps been even more surprising than Coric's.
It has to be said that Pouille was perhaps overachieving by reaching back to back Slam Quarter Finals back in 2016 and his numbers have remained pretty average on the hard courts. There is no doubting that the Frenchman has some talent, but he is perhaps still a little over-rated by some of the layers after some eye-catching runs in tournaments, but Pouille is far from consistent.
Last week was a tougher run through the first three Rounds than what Coric experienced and Pouille did need five sets in the last Round. The serve remains the key weapon for Pouille but there has been little to suggest he will maintain the numbers he has been producing in Melbourne over a long term.
There is also a pressure on the Frenchman's shoulders considering his return game is one of the poorer ones out there, especially amongst those in the top 50 of the World Rankings. I would fully expect Borna Coric to keep the pressure on Pouille having held 91% of service games in Australia and also breaking at over 28%.
Borna Coric is also perhaps serving better than expected, but he has shown improvement behind that shot in each of the last three seasons on the hard courts and is a player on the rise. It is the return of serve that the Croatian possesses which I expect to impact this match the most and the head to head is also 2-0 in favour of Coric with both of those wins coming on the hard courts.
He has managed to break the Pouille serve at just under 35% of the return games played in those two matches and I think the match up does work for Coric. As long as he can keep his nerves in check I would think Coric is good enough to win and cover this number.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: An injury suffered by Pablo Carreno Busta at the US Open saw the backend of his 2018 season fall away and the run of losses continued in Auckland to open 2019. The Spaniard has been surprisingly effective in the Grand Slams played on the hard courts in the last couple of years though and perhaps the return to the longer format of the sport was exactly what he needed.
Pablo Carreno Busta has won three matches in a row for the first time since the tournament in Winston Salem in the week prior to the US Open beginning. There clearly must have been some confidence earned from coming from 0-2 down to beat Luca Vanni in the First Round of the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has played well since then.
He has been playing some strong tennis behind the serve and there is no doubt that the Spaniard is going to need to be at his best on that side of his game if he is going to upset the odds here.
While Carreno Busta came through some hard times to win in the First Round, Kei Nishikori had to dig deep in his first two Rounds before comfortably dismissing Joao Sousa in the Third Round. Those wins means Nishikori is now up to 7-0 for 2019 having won the title in Brisbane to open 2019 and his serving numbers have been stronger than Carreno Busta's in the tournament while having a similar break number and that despite playing against the monster serve possesses by Ivo Karlovic.
Nishikori has been winning 8% more points behind serve than Carreno Busta in the first three Rounds of the tournament while there really isn't much in the returning statistics between them.
The match is not going to be straight-forward because there will be some long, gruelling rallies to deal with as neither player can really hope to earn too many easy points behind the serve. With some fitness doubts about Carreno Busta going into the tournament, those could show up the longer this match goes and I do think the superior play of Nishikori will eventually come to the fore.
It shouldn't matter if this needs four sets either as I can see Nishikori wearing down Carreno Busta and potentially putting up a set with a couple of breaks secured in it. That should give him every chance of covering this number in a victory.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: If anyone thinks the veterans are going to have an easy time holding off the 'Next Gen' of men's tennis then Stefanos Tsitsipas' win over Roger Federer on Sunday would have perhaps changed some opinions.
I also expect that win to be a very important to the old guard to perhaps refocus and double down on the efforts. On Tuesday Rafael Nadal will take on 21 year old Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final, but before that the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic takes on Daniil Medvedev who recently reached the Final in Brisbane.
The Russian youngster has been in great form in 2019 and he has built on a very successful time on the hard courts over the last six months of 2018. Daniil Medvedev has been strong behind the serve and his numbers at the Australian Open have been pretty incredible to put it frankly.
Any player holding serve at over 92% of the time and breaking at 47% is going to be winning matches very easily and that is what Medvedev has done. Sometimes those numbers can be skewed because of a kind draw, but Medvedev has beaten Ryan Harrison and David Goffin in the last couple of Rounds and confidence has to be at an extremely high level.
This does mark a step up for Medvedev who has not beaten any player inside the top 10 of the World Rankings on the hard courts since the beginning of last season. He is 0-6 in that time but I can only respect the fact that Medvedev has won at least one set in four of those matches even if his serve and return of serve have not been quite as effective in those matches.
I expect Novak Djokovic to offer the sternest of tests for Medvedev and you can't ignore how well the World Number 1 is playing at a tournament he has won six times before. With Roger Federer out, Novak Djokovic is the only player left in the men's tournament who can become the first to win the Australian Open seven times and he has been in dominant form in Melbourne.
Outside of 'Floodgate-gate', Djokovic has looked very comfortable and this is a player who has been one of the toughest returners to face. He might not have quite the same level of success as Medvedev, but Djokovic has broken in 43% of return games in the tournament and I think he is going to prove too much for his young opponent.
They have met twice before, but Medvedev is a much improved player since those matches in 2017. However what can't be ignored is the fact that Djokovic was really struggling during their two previous matches and still broke serve often in those two matches with Medvedev yet now is back to the level of World Number 1.
I do have a lot of time for Medvedev and he is developing into a top player like many expected of him. However I think Djokovic is going to be ready for this match after seeing what happened to Federer and I think he is playing at a level that will be hard for Medvedev to match.
This is a big spread, but Djokovic showed how strong the return of serve can be in his wins over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Denis Shapovalov and I think he is going to break down the Medvedev game and pull away from his opponent.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: Two players who have been a regular feature of the top 10 of the WTA World Rankings meet in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. The reason for that is Garbine Muguruza, a two time Grand Slam Champion, has struggled over the last year and see her Ranking drop down to Number 18.
The Spaniard has been in really good form in Melbourne over the last week and Muguruza is one of those players that can get very hot the deeper she gets into the tournament. Her title win at Wimbledon in 2017 really came out of left-field so I would not be too concerned about her overall form going into the Australian Open.
2018 did prove to be a tough year for Muguruza but some of that is down to the standards she has set for herself and perception of how she has played. Her numbers are solid enough on the hard courts to think she is going to be tough to beat, but Muguruza has to overcome a poor head to head record against Karolina Pliskova to get through to the Quarter Final.
While Muguruza would have been disappointed with her 2018 season, Karolina Pliskova really did have a tough season. You would expect the Czech player to be much more effective on the hard courts than she was in 2018, but the turn of the calendar year might have been all she needed to get back to a more realistic level.
So far 2019 has been a very productive time for Pliskova who has won all seven matches played having won the title in Brisbane to open the new season. Karolina Pliskova has needed three sets to win her last couple of matches here against Madison Brengle and Camila Giorgi, but she has been playing better than those dropped sets would suggest.
Both players have been in good nick and I do think this is going to be a close match, but that is where the Pliskova 7-2 head to head advantage over Muguruza could make the difference in the tight moments. Eight of those matches have been played on the hard courts and Pliskova has won seven of those although I won't ignore the fact that they have not played each other in 2018.
In previous matches the Pliskova serve has been stronger than the Muguruza delivery and proved to be the difference in matches. The Spaniard has not been able to generate nearly as many break point chances as Pliskova and I think the bigger serve of the Czech player will make the difference in a match that could go the distance on Monday.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: Not many players have been able to beat both Williams sisters at Grand Slam events, but Simona Halep will be looking to add her name to that list. After beating Venus Williams in the Third Round, the World Number 1 faces Australian Open favourite Serena Williams in the Fourth Round and this time Simona Halep is the underdog.
You can't blame the layers for thinking that way considering the form that Serena Williams has produced at the Australian Open. She has dominated all three players she has faced, while Serena also has an incredibly strong record against Halep although the two players are meeting for the first time since September 2016.
In that time Halep has become a Grand Slam Champion and she also reached the Final at the Australian Open so I don't imagine the Romanian will feel she is the same player that has lost eight of nine matches against Serena Williams.
There were some worries about the Halep fitness going into the Australian Open but she has been playing well in Melbourne. While the serve may not be as big a weapon as the one that Williams possesses, Halep has been using the angles on the delivery effectively and she does back it up with some very consistent tennis off the ground.
It is the return of serve that has really helped Halep come through three Rounds at the Australian Open, but facing the Serena serve is the biggest challenge in women's tennis. In three matches Serena has faced just three break points and she has been as close to perfect on the serve as you could ask of any player either male or female.
Serena Williams will know about the qualities of Halep and she has to make sure her powerful groundstrokes are not gifting too many unforced errors away. So far she has been doing that and Williams has also been winning an incredible 57% of points AGAINST the serve.
I do think Halep is going to offer challenges to Serena Williams that the American has not seen so far in the Australian Open. However I am not sure it will be enough to win the match and Williams has been playing to a level that should see her break the Halep serve on enough occasions to cover this spread even if she needs three sets to beat the World Number 1 like she did when these players last met.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Milos Raonic Over 44.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open 2019: 45-38, + 8.67 Units (163 Units Staked, + 5.32% Yield)
NFL Play Offs Championship Game Picks 2019 (January 20th)
I had a pretty awful Divisional Round of the Play Offs for the second season in a row and I know exactly where I went wrong.
If I do the same next season I deserve to go 0-4 for the third year in a row.
Idiot selections aside, we have reached the NFL Championship Games and I think the four most deserving teams make up the final quartet. Home Field should be the difference maker, but you can see how closely the teams are matched that the layers are hesitant to give the home team more than the three points that is standard practice when beginning to compile spreads.
I do think both games will be fascinating and we won't see the blow outs like we did in a couple of the Play Off Games played in the Divisional Round.
Below you can read my selections for the Championship Games.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Back in Week 9 of the regular season the New Orleans Saints beat the Los Angeles Rams at home and that not only ended the unbeaten run of the visitors, but it also meant the Saints were able to secure home field advantage through the Play Offs. Even after the game in Week 9 the feeling was that the two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game and that has proven to be the case.
Both received a Bye in the Wild Card Round which would have been a huge help, but the Saints and Rams showed they are the two best teams in the NFC with the performances in the Divisional Round. The Rams dominated the Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, while the New Orleans Saints survived being punched in the mouth early in the game with the Philadelphia Eagles and overcame a 0-14 deficit to earn their spot in the Championship Game.
Two Offensive minded Head Coaches will receive plenty of media attention during the week, but it is going to be the play of the Defensive units which decide this game. While the Saints and Rams have been capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the two Defensive units have played their part at pivotal moments and that is going to be all important in this one.
Beating the Saints in the SuperDome may be one of the biggest challenges in the NFL and they proved that through the season. A Week 1 upset to Tampa Bay and a Week 17 loss to the Carolina Panthers with rested starters should not cloud the difficulty the Los Angeles Rams have in winning here on Sunday afternoon.
The Rams Defensive Line was huge for them against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round as they clamped down on Ezekiel Elliot. However Wade Phillips has seen his Defense struggle against the run all season and I don't think one game is enough to suggest things would have changed significantly.
When they played here in Week 9 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara had big games for the Saints and I do think the two dynamic Running Backs can do the same here. Ultimately the Rams have to respect the quality Quarter Back Drew Brees and his ability to make plays through the air and that may lead to more holes for the New Orleans Offensive Line to exploit and set the team up in third and manageable situations.
Michael Thomas had a monster game in Week 9, but I think the Saints will be looking to other options with Aqib Talib back. Drew Brees has been able to throw many unfamiliar names open and I do think play-action and short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield will keep the chains moving and put some pressure on Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams to keep up in what could be another shoot-out.
Last week the Rams were able to establish both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson in their win over Dallas and they had some really long, time consuming drives which may be the game plan for this one too. Keeping Brees and company off the field and cooling them down would be huge for the Rams, but they are playing an under-rated New Orleans Defensive unit that may feel they have the talent to make some big plays.
There has been a key injury on the Saints Defensive Line which may have a big impact on the game. Sheldon Rankings is done for the season and is a big body in the middle of the Saints Defensive Line which helped them hold teams to 3.6 yards per carry through the season. Now the Saints have to face Gurley and Anderson without him having seen the two prove huge in the win over the Cowboys in the Divisional Round and that could be where this game is won and lost.
New Orleans will feel they have enough playmakers to win this game if they can stop the run like they have for the season, but it looks a big ask. That makes things a little more comfortable for Jared Goff who has not maintained his form from the first half of the season through to the second half.
Goff has not been asked to do a lot with the run game working as well as it has for the Rams and he will need all the support he can get again if they are going to win this game. There are holes in the New Orleans Secondary to exploit, but those are much easier to attack from third and manageable than third and long so Gurley and Anderson have to have a big game and Los Angeles can't afford to fall into a big hole on the scoreboard.
It is a difficult game to predict because you simply can't know how the loss of Rankings is going to affect the New Orleans Saints. If the Rams can run the ball effectively they will be very difficult to beat, but what I do think is that we are not going to get the same time of shoot out as we did in Week 9.
Both teams will look to run the ball and I don't think the Saints will get the chunk plays through the air as they did last time. Running the ball means the clock gets worn down that much quicker and long, effective drives will be the order of the day for the Rams.
It is a big total with many expecting the teams to pick up from where they left off in Week 9, but both Offensive units have not been as explosive in the back part of the season. The Championship Game looks a good one, but one where I will look for the total points line to be a touch on the high side.
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is another rematch in the Championship Round of the Play Offs, but this time the Kansas City Chiefs will get to host the New England Patriots having lost in Foxboro in the regular season. This is the second of the Championship Games to be played on Sunday and the layers are finding it very difficult to split the teams with home field being given the three points that is the general rule for those layers creating the spreads.
It was the New England Patriots who won the regular season game in another shoot out, but the second half performance from the Kansas City Chiefs will be a big encouragement to them. Patrick Mahomes grew in that game and has proven to be a level headed Quarter Back that can play at a very high level no matter the intense nature of the NFL.
The Chiefs comfortably handled the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round at home and having the chance to host this one at Arrowhead is a huge advantage for them. They have won eight of their nine games played at home in the 2018 season and Kansas City will be very confident against a New England Patriots team that were only 3-5 on the road.
There were a lot of people writing off the Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick to beat them last week in the Divisional Round. It was never a contest though and the Patriots dismissed the Chargers, but for once they are not hosting the AFC Championship Game and that does feel like a difference maker.
In recent years the Patriots have been very vulnerable when losing home advantage in the Play Offs and I really do think that could be the case again. I don't want to write off Bill Belichick and his brilliant mind especially as he has seen Patrick Mahomes once this season and likely compiled a great game plan to limit the young Quarter Back, but I love the way Mahomes has handled all situations.
There is no doubt that there has been an improvement in the levels the New England Defensive unit have been operating at, but those performances have been with home comforts. It has been a very different story on the road and I do think the Chiefs can find a very good balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will make it very difficult to stop them.
Damien Williams and Spencer Ware are not as good as Kareem Hunt, but both are solid enough Running Backs who should be able to have success in this one. Andy Reid is someone who will look to establish the run in different ways so Tyreek Hill running a jet sweep will also have an impact on this game, while Mahomes is an athletic Quarter Back too, but I would expect Williams and Ware to have success against the Patriots Defensive Line despite the recent strength shown up front.
Patrick Mahomes has been put under pressure at times by the opposing pass rush and that may be the case again in this one, but third and long doesn't faze him. There have been too many occasions when those have been converted into First Downs to think he is 'lucky' so I do think Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have success moving the chains as they did when these teams met in the regular season.
Beating Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Play Offs is a huge test for any team in the NFL and you know these two men are unlikely to put New England in a spot where they beat themselves. You just know Brady is itching to keep proving the doubters wrong after hearing his thoughts following the dominant win over the Chargers and the Patriots did score 43 points against the Chiefs at home.
With Josh Gordon gone, New England have been happy to lean on their Running Backs either as Receivers coming out of the backfield or pounding the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Sony Michel has been a huge success for the Patriots and have a big game in the Divisional Round, but both James White and Rex Burkhead get their touches too and the Patriots will feel they can establish the run.
This is huge for New England who know that the one thing Kansas City do very well is rushing the passer and putting them under intense pressure. It has proven that the best way to beat Brady in the Play Offs is with a strong pass rush which leads to the future Hall of Famer just getting a little edgy inside the pocket and perhaps makes him feel some phantom pressure that lead to mistakes.
That pressure for the Chiefs has been a key reason the Secondary have improved as the weeks have gone on in the NFL. While Brady will have some success, I do think the Chiefs have the edge with the pass rush that can at least stall some drives and give Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
As you can tell I do like Kansas City, although some of the enthusiasm is taken away when you think of the Coaching battle. I like Andy Reid, but he has Coached some poor Play Off games which would concern me against someone like Bill Belichick.
However Reid seems to hold all the Aces in this one and my favourite to win the Super Bowl is Kansas City so I do believe they win this one. Backing the home team to cover against the Patriots in the Play Offs may seem dangerous, but New England are 1-4 in their last five road Play Off games and they are also 1-4 against the spread in that time.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams Under 56.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
If I do the same next season I deserve to go 0-4 for the third year in a row.
Idiot selections aside, we have reached the NFL Championship Games and I think the four most deserving teams make up the final quartet. Home Field should be the difference maker, but you can see how closely the teams are matched that the layers are hesitant to give the home team more than the three points that is standard practice when beginning to compile spreads.
I do think both games will be fascinating and we won't see the blow outs like we did in a couple of the Play Off Games played in the Divisional Round.
Below you can read my selections for the Championship Games.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Back in Week 9 of the regular season the New Orleans Saints beat the Los Angeles Rams at home and that not only ended the unbeaten run of the visitors, but it also meant the Saints were able to secure home field advantage through the Play Offs. Even after the game in Week 9 the feeling was that the two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game and that has proven to be the case.
Both received a Bye in the Wild Card Round which would have been a huge help, but the Saints and Rams showed they are the two best teams in the NFC with the performances in the Divisional Round. The Rams dominated the Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, while the New Orleans Saints survived being punched in the mouth early in the game with the Philadelphia Eagles and overcame a 0-14 deficit to earn their spot in the Championship Game.
Two Offensive minded Head Coaches will receive plenty of media attention during the week, but it is going to be the play of the Defensive units which decide this game. While the Saints and Rams have been capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the two Defensive units have played their part at pivotal moments and that is going to be all important in this one.
Beating the Saints in the SuperDome may be one of the biggest challenges in the NFL and they proved that through the season. A Week 1 upset to Tampa Bay and a Week 17 loss to the Carolina Panthers with rested starters should not cloud the difficulty the Los Angeles Rams have in winning here on Sunday afternoon.
The Rams Defensive Line was huge for them against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round as they clamped down on Ezekiel Elliot. However Wade Phillips has seen his Defense struggle against the run all season and I don't think one game is enough to suggest things would have changed significantly.
When they played here in Week 9 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara had big games for the Saints and I do think the two dynamic Running Backs can do the same here. Ultimately the Rams have to respect the quality Quarter Back Drew Brees and his ability to make plays through the air and that may lead to more holes for the New Orleans Offensive Line to exploit and set the team up in third and manageable situations.
Michael Thomas had a monster game in Week 9, but I think the Saints will be looking to other options with Aqib Talib back. Drew Brees has been able to throw many unfamiliar names open and I do think play-action and short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield will keep the chains moving and put some pressure on Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams to keep up in what could be another shoot-out.
Last week the Rams were able to establish both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson in their win over Dallas and they had some really long, time consuming drives which may be the game plan for this one too. Keeping Brees and company off the field and cooling them down would be huge for the Rams, but they are playing an under-rated New Orleans Defensive unit that may feel they have the talent to make some big plays.
There has been a key injury on the Saints Defensive Line which may have a big impact on the game. Sheldon Rankings is done for the season and is a big body in the middle of the Saints Defensive Line which helped them hold teams to 3.6 yards per carry through the season. Now the Saints have to face Gurley and Anderson without him having seen the two prove huge in the win over the Cowboys in the Divisional Round and that could be where this game is won and lost.
New Orleans will feel they have enough playmakers to win this game if they can stop the run like they have for the season, but it looks a big ask. That makes things a little more comfortable for Jared Goff who has not maintained his form from the first half of the season through to the second half.
Goff has not been asked to do a lot with the run game working as well as it has for the Rams and he will need all the support he can get again if they are going to win this game. There are holes in the New Orleans Secondary to exploit, but those are much easier to attack from third and manageable than third and long so Gurley and Anderson have to have a big game and Los Angeles can't afford to fall into a big hole on the scoreboard.
It is a difficult game to predict because you simply can't know how the loss of Rankings is going to affect the New Orleans Saints. If the Rams can run the ball effectively they will be very difficult to beat, but what I do think is that we are not going to get the same time of shoot out as we did in Week 9.
Both teams will look to run the ball and I don't think the Saints will get the chunk plays through the air as they did last time. Running the ball means the clock gets worn down that much quicker and long, effective drives will be the order of the day for the Rams.
It is a big total with many expecting the teams to pick up from where they left off in Week 9, but both Offensive units have not been as explosive in the back part of the season. The Championship Game looks a good one, but one where I will look for the total points line to be a touch on the high side.
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is another rematch in the Championship Round of the Play Offs, but this time the Kansas City Chiefs will get to host the New England Patriots having lost in Foxboro in the regular season. This is the second of the Championship Games to be played on Sunday and the layers are finding it very difficult to split the teams with home field being given the three points that is the general rule for those layers creating the spreads.
It was the New England Patriots who won the regular season game in another shoot out, but the second half performance from the Kansas City Chiefs will be a big encouragement to them. Patrick Mahomes grew in that game and has proven to be a level headed Quarter Back that can play at a very high level no matter the intense nature of the NFL.
The Chiefs comfortably handled the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round at home and having the chance to host this one at Arrowhead is a huge advantage for them. They have won eight of their nine games played at home in the 2018 season and Kansas City will be very confident against a New England Patriots team that were only 3-5 on the road.
There were a lot of people writing off the Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick to beat them last week in the Divisional Round. It was never a contest though and the Patriots dismissed the Chargers, but for once they are not hosting the AFC Championship Game and that does feel like a difference maker.
In recent years the Patriots have been very vulnerable when losing home advantage in the Play Offs and I really do think that could be the case again. I don't want to write off Bill Belichick and his brilliant mind especially as he has seen Patrick Mahomes once this season and likely compiled a great game plan to limit the young Quarter Back, but I love the way Mahomes has handled all situations.
There is no doubt that there has been an improvement in the levels the New England Defensive unit have been operating at, but those performances have been with home comforts. It has been a very different story on the road and I do think the Chiefs can find a very good balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will make it very difficult to stop them.
Damien Williams and Spencer Ware are not as good as Kareem Hunt, but both are solid enough Running Backs who should be able to have success in this one. Andy Reid is someone who will look to establish the run in different ways so Tyreek Hill running a jet sweep will also have an impact on this game, while Mahomes is an athletic Quarter Back too, but I would expect Williams and Ware to have success against the Patriots Defensive Line despite the recent strength shown up front.
Patrick Mahomes has been put under pressure at times by the opposing pass rush and that may be the case again in this one, but third and long doesn't faze him. There have been too many occasions when those have been converted into First Downs to think he is 'lucky' so I do think Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have success moving the chains as they did when these teams met in the regular season.
Beating Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Play Offs is a huge test for any team in the NFL and you know these two men are unlikely to put New England in a spot where they beat themselves. You just know Brady is itching to keep proving the doubters wrong after hearing his thoughts following the dominant win over the Chargers and the Patriots did score 43 points against the Chiefs at home.
With Josh Gordon gone, New England have been happy to lean on their Running Backs either as Receivers coming out of the backfield or pounding the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Sony Michel has been a huge success for the Patriots and have a big game in the Divisional Round, but both James White and Rex Burkhead get their touches too and the Patriots will feel they can establish the run.
This is huge for New England who know that the one thing Kansas City do very well is rushing the passer and putting them under intense pressure. It has proven that the best way to beat Brady in the Play Offs is with a strong pass rush which leads to the future Hall of Famer just getting a little edgy inside the pocket and perhaps makes him feel some phantom pressure that lead to mistakes.
That pressure for the Chiefs has been a key reason the Secondary have improved as the weeks have gone on in the NFL. While Brady will have some success, I do think the Chiefs have the edge with the pass rush that can at least stall some drives and give Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
As you can tell I do like Kansas City, although some of the enthusiasm is taken away when you think of the Coaching battle. I like Andy Reid, but he has Coached some poor Play Off games which would concern me against someone like Bill Belichick.
However Reid seems to hold all the Aces in this one and my favourite to win the Super Bowl is Kansas City so I do believe they win this one. Backing the home team to cover against the Patriots in the Play Offs may seem dangerous, but New England are 1-4 in their last five road Play Off games and they are also 1-4 against the spread in that time.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams Under 56.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
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