The Australian Open has basically reached its conclusion with the two Singles Finals to be played over the next couple of days.
First up it is the turn of the women as Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki compete for not only the first Grand Slam title of the 2018 season, but the first Grand Slam either player will have won. Add in the fact that the World Number 1 Ranking is on the line between the two top Seeds at the Australian Open and it looks to be the most fitting way for the tournament to end.
Simona Halep-Caroline Wozniacki over 21.5 games: The World Number 1 Ranking and a maiden Grand Slam is on the line as Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep compete for the Australian Open title on Saturday. Both players deserve their spot in the Final and much of the match could come down to which of these players is able to hold their nerve the best.
The edge in terms of fitness has to be given to Wozniacki who has not had nearly the same kind of difficult path through the draw as Halep. While it has to be remembered that Wozniacki was down match points and recovered from a 5-1 hole in the final set of her Second Round match, the Dane has only dropped another set on her way through to the Final.
Compare that to Halep who rolled an ankle in the First Round and has admitted she has played through some pain during the last couple of weeks. The current World Number 1 also needed to win one match 15-13 in the third set, while Halep saw off Angelique Kerber 9-7 in their Semi Final on Thursday after saving match points in the deciding set before beating one of the form players on the Tour.
Halep does come in as the last unbeaten player in 2018 having won the title in Shenzhen before her run through to the Final here. She will have to show some mental toughness to take on Wozniacki who won their two matches in 2017 including a brutal 6-2, 6-0 win at the WTA Finals in the final tournament of the season on the hard courts.
On the face of things you would think Halep would match up well with Wozniacki with an ability to scramble around the court and play solid defensive tennis, but also as the player who should have a little more aggressiveness in her play when she is on the front foot. It has been Halep's return game which has been firing wonderfully well in her last couple of wins and I think playing Wozniacki gives her a chance to get after this serve and put the pressure on her opponent.
However you can't ignore the mental aspect of losing two matches to Wozniacki in 2017 and also being 2-4 down in the head to head. In saying that, Wozniacki has shown some mental lapses as she has got closer and closer to winning her maiden Grand Slam title and that saw her drop a set to Carla Suarez Navarro in the Quarter Final and have to fend off some set points in her Semi Final win over Elise Mertens in the second set.
At some point I would expect the nerves to affect whoever is leading this match and the layers are right to have it down as a very close one. It would not be a big surprise to me if a player dominates the first set and a half before seeing the finishing line and allowing their opponent back in to force a decider.
I am really struggling to pick a winner, but these two players had needed a decider in three consecutive matches before the stunning win Wozniacki had over Halep in the WTA Finals. I am going to suggest that was an exception in what should be a match where both players are closely matched and have to deal with considerable nerves to decide who will take home all of the prizes on offer.
The biggest surprise for me would be to see one of the players run away with the match considering how both Halep and Wozniacki have been playing. Both have shown the desire and character to win matches where they have faced match point and I would expect to see two incredibly tight sets at the very least in this one as nerves keeps things close.
There is every chance a decider will be needed too and I think backing the total games line to be surpassed is the way to go in the Final.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep-Caroline Wozniacki Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-38, - 6.50 Units (143 Units Staked, - 4.41% Yield)
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Friday, 26 January 2018
United Corner- The Arrival of Alexis Sanchez (January 26th)
United Corner- The Arrival of Alexis Sanchez (January 27th)
I refused to get carried away when the news first broke that Manchester United were interested in signing Alexis Sanchez from Arsenal in the January transfer window.
It was almost universally accepted that Sanchez was going to Manchester City either in this window or on a free in the summer having seen the move to the Etihad Stadium pulled from underneath him in the summer transfer window in 2017.
But then the story developed.
And developed.
And Manchester City pulled out with the 'financial package' one they were not prepared to pay and that opened the door for Manchester United to bring in one of the best players in the Premier League.
What a transfer and the right choice to take over the famous Number 7 shirt which had been left vacant to be filled by a name of the magnitude of Alexis Sanchez.
This was the player I wanted United to bid for when he was leaving Barcelona in the same summer the club spent more to bring in Angel Di Maria from Real Madrid. At the time I thought Sanchez was the better fit at the price and the style of play, although Di Maria was also a player I admired, and it turned out to be the case with Sanchez thriving in the Premier League and Di Maria lasting just a single season before moving on to Paris Saint-Germain.
But now finally United have their man and I have to say there are so many positive feelings about the transfer. Alexis Sanchez is the kind of special player United have been missing in the final third, someone who can change a tight game in an instant with a brilliant pass or a fine shot and the Number 7 shirt is fitting for him.
I have little doubt Sanchez is going to be a success at United and now I am feeling glad that Chile have missed out on the World Cup, purely for selfish reasons. I do enjoy watching Chile play, but they, and Sanchez, haven't had a summer off for a number of years due to World Cups, Confederations Cup or Copa America commitments.
Sanchez can help United achieve big things in the second half of this season, but I am looking forward to a rested and settled Sanchez taking off next August as a stronger bid to win the Premier League title will be expected of the side.
Do I think this makes Manchester United a threat to win the Champions League? While not a favourite, Sanchez is the kind of signing that can change tight Knock Out ties in Manchester United's favour and I definitely think United are a dark horse to go all the way to Kiev in what looks a remarkably open Champions League.
Sanchez can also play in the Cup and I don't see any downside to this deal with the obvious talent the Chilean brings to the squad.
I am sorry that Henrikh Mkhitaryan had to be sacrificed to get the deal done, but it had become clear that our midfield Armenian didn't have the full temperament to play for Manchester United. I think he will thrive in the less pressurised atmosphere of playing for Arsenal, but the expectations of Manchester United wore heavy on Mkhitaryan's shoulders and he was almost certainly going to be leaving in the summer.
To swap him for Sanchez was an absolute no-brainer as far as I am concerned.
The big question most Manchester United fans had in the cold light of day once the excitement of the Sanchez transfer was completed was where Sanchez was going to play- Jose Mourinho has made it clear that he feels Sanchez can play anywhere in the front four of his favoured 4-2-3-1 system, and I don't agree with the critics of the deal who suggest the Sanchez signing is a hindrance to some of the young players in the squad.
The most notable is Anthony Martial who has been in stellar form this season and looks to have seen off Marcus Rashford as the starter for Mourinho on the left of the three chief supporting players to Romelu Lukaku. That left side has been an effective position for Alexis Sanchez and neither the Chilean or Martial are as comfortable on the right, but I still believe both will be accommodated in this team.
Ever since it was becoming clear that Sanchez would be arriving at Old Trafford, my feeling has been he will chiefly play in the 'Number 10' spot in the team with some creative license from there.
Jesse Lingard has been playing fantastically well in that position, but I do think Lingard is going to be shifted to the right side which remains the real problem position for United. I would expect Lingard and Mata to fight for that place, while Martial and Rashford battle for the left side.
Rotation will play a factor, but I imagine if all of the players are available to Jose Mourinho then his team would look like this:
De Gea, Valencia, Young, Jones, Bailly, Matic, Pogba, Lingard, Martial, Sanchez and Lukaku.
In big games where Mourinho wants an extra body in midfield it may be Martial sacrificed to be used as an impact player with Sanchez moving over to the left. The counter attacking options are improved too as Mourinho could choose to use Sanchez up front with Martial and Lingard in support in those games and use Lukaku as the impact player instead if United need a goal.
For me this makes Sanchez an excellent signing to give Mourinho the options he is craving and I really can only seeing this being a successful signing for the side.
There has been one negative around the Sanchez deal but it is one being pushed by the media and nothing to do with the player being signed. This whole situation of it being a decision to win trophies or sign for money when it came to signing for United or City is laughable.
I must have been asleep during the time that Manchester United have stopped being the most successful English club and one that is clearly improving. Yes City are ahead at this moment in time, but I honestly think United have as good a chance to win the Champions League and with one more transfer window I would expect Mourinho to get us much closer to the leaders next season.
The other element of the deal was the way the fees have been reported- I am not sure when the media started reporting deals including every cost because it sounds like United are paying millions while Arsenal are paying nothing to have Mkhitaryan arrive (who has become their highest paid player by all reports).
Liverpool just paid £75 million for Virgil Van Dijk to Southampton, but I didn't see a report mentioning how much all his wages and agent fees and signing on bonuses were going to cost them over the course of his contract? I can imagine it will be much closer to a £140 million deal if reported the same way as the Sanchez deal.
But you know what, that won't matter if Mourinho can create another United versus the World atmosphere around the club. That has proved to be very successful in the past and this is the kind of signing that will put all the ABUs on notice that Manchester United are taking another step back towards the top of the English and European game.
United certainly look to be making the right moves and I just hope Mourinho is backed again in the summer transfer window to really get things right at the club. His new contract to extend his time at Old Trafford keeps the positive vibes coming out of the club and hopefully United can back that up with a couple more big results to end the month of January.
The signing of Alexis Sanchez could be a catalyst for a really strong end to the 2017/18 season and then a rested Sanchez can help Manchester United produce a huge Premier League title push next season.
A special player wearing a special number is what has been missing at United in the last few years and I am looking forward to seeing Sanchez with the famous red shirt on.
Thursday, 25 January 2018
Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2018 (January 26th)
Day 11 was the last in the Australian Open with multiple Singles matches scheduled and the remaining three days are set for one men's Semi Final, the woman's Final and then the men's Final.
It was a tough day in the office for Kyle Edmund who ran out of energy in his defeat to Marin Cilic, but the British player should not be too down on himself. The Australian Open should have given him a lot of belief that he can go on and fulfil the potential many have long seen in him and at 23 years old this is the time for Edmund to make his move.
I would not be surprised if he is deciding to pull out of the Great Britain Davis Cup tie in Spain next weekend as Edmund looks to evaluate how the last month has played out for him. He can then return to the Tour later in February before the back to back big Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami as Edmund looks to push his career forward.
All credit has to be given to Cilic for the way he handled himself in a Semi Final where all the expectation was on his shoulders. A multiple time Grand Slam Finalist will be feeling good about his chances to win another Slam to add to the US Open, and Cilic also has a chance to show he is completely over the Wimbledon Final last year which saw him suffer with an injury that held him ut for a couple of months afterwards.
On Day 11 the women's Final was also set as Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep moved past Elise Mertens and Angelique Kerber. The Halep-Kerber match had some dramatic swings with both players able to save match points and it is the second time in this event that Halep has needed to play multiple games beyond 6-6 in a final set decider.
The Romanian will need all the rest possible over the next couple of days before another tough battle, while both Halep and Wozniacki are going to have to handle the nerves as they look for a maiden Grand Slam which would underline their status as the World Number 1. That Ranking is also on the line and the first major winner of the season will deserve that tag.
The Kerber defeat was frustrating as it meant my last outright pick in the women's draw exited the tournament one step away from the Final. However the German needs to be given a lot of credit for her performances in Australia this past month and Kerber looks to be back to her best which will make her a threat to win any of the three remaining Slams this season.
Of course the biggest worry for the top women's players is the impending return of Serena Williams who will go into any event she enters as a big favourite to win it. Serena has won titles off big lay offs throughout her career and that sense of aura around her still exists for any player that will face up to her across the net.
On Day 12 the men's Final will be decided and my picks is below.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Hyeon Chung: The old faces the new in the Australian Open Semi Final on Day 12 at the tournament, although Roger Federer has shown little sign of losing his grip at the very top of men's tennis. One of the leading contenders to lead the next generation of male players at the top of the sport faces him in the Semi Final as Hyeon Chung looks to take out another former Australian Open Champion.
After beating Novak Djokovic in the Fourth Round, Chung will take aim at the defending Champion and the confidence has to be flowing through the body of the South Korean player. Beating Djokovic and Alexander Zverev during the tournament will have given Chung a shot in the arm, but I don't think many will argue when saying that facing Federer is another step up in terms of a challenge for the youngster.
Djokovic is coming off a long injury lay off and had chances to turn around a couple of sets in the defeat to Chung, while Zverev has not made the kind of impact at a Grand Slam that his general tennis suggests he should have. Even then Zverev dominated the first three sets against Chung before falling away and there is no way that Federer would do that in barring something unforeseen, like an injury mid-match, occurring.
It has been a really good defence of the Australian Open title so far for Federer who has yet to drop a set. That stat is perhaps a little fortunate when you see how well Tomas Berdych played in the first set against Federer in the Quarter Final a couple of days ago, but there is also little doubt that Federer is playing at a very high level which is going to put pressure on Chung.
There is a lot to like about Chung and the way he plays- the comparison to Novak Djokovic is apt, but I also remember the first time Djokovic played a rock solid Federer in a best of five set match. That came in the Davis Cup and Federer dominated before next playing Djokovic here in Melbourne back in 2007 and crushing a young challenger in a match where some thought it could be very close.
Federer has been serving well enough to put plenty of pressure on Chung who simply is a player still developing and who doesn't look after the serve nearly as well. The defensive skills have to be respected, but Federer won't go away like Zverev and is playing at a higher level than Djokovic at this stage of their careers.
I would expect Federer to have the majority of break points in this one and I think the confidence and belief in his game means the Swiss superstar won't be ruffled by Chung's defensive skills. I expect Chung to have some really good moments too to highlight the potential he has, but ultimately I would expect Federer to make his way into yet another Australian Open Final and I can see the scoreboard perhaps looking tough on Chung.
Federer should be able to wear down his opponent as he produces a 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 win to make his way through to the Sunday Final against Marin Cilic.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-38, - 6.50 Units (143 Units Staked, - 4.41% Yield)
It was a tough day in the office for Kyle Edmund who ran out of energy in his defeat to Marin Cilic, but the British player should not be too down on himself. The Australian Open should have given him a lot of belief that he can go on and fulfil the potential many have long seen in him and at 23 years old this is the time for Edmund to make his move.
I would not be surprised if he is deciding to pull out of the Great Britain Davis Cup tie in Spain next weekend as Edmund looks to evaluate how the last month has played out for him. He can then return to the Tour later in February before the back to back big Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami as Edmund looks to push his career forward.
All credit has to be given to Cilic for the way he handled himself in a Semi Final where all the expectation was on his shoulders. A multiple time Grand Slam Finalist will be feeling good about his chances to win another Slam to add to the US Open, and Cilic also has a chance to show he is completely over the Wimbledon Final last year which saw him suffer with an injury that held him ut for a couple of months afterwards.
On Day 11 the women's Final was also set as Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep moved past Elise Mertens and Angelique Kerber. The Halep-Kerber match had some dramatic swings with both players able to save match points and it is the second time in this event that Halep has needed to play multiple games beyond 6-6 in a final set decider.
The Romanian will need all the rest possible over the next couple of days before another tough battle, while both Halep and Wozniacki are going to have to handle the nerves as they look for a maiden Grand Slam which would underline their status as the World Number 1. That Ranking is also on the line and the first major winner of the season will deserve that tag.
The Kerber defeat was frustrating as it meant my last outright pick in the women's draw exited the tournament one step away from the Final. However the German needs to be given a lot of credit for her performances in Australia this past month and Kerber looks to be back to her best which will make her a threat to win any of the three remaining Slams this season.
Of course the biggest worry for the top women's players is the impending return of Serena Williams who will go into any event she enters as a big favourite to win it. Serena has won titles off big lay offs throughout her career and that sense of aura around her still exists for any player that will face up to her across the net.
On Day 12 the men's Final will be decided and my picks is below.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Hyeon Chung: The old faces the new in the Australian Open Semi Final on Day 12 at the tournament, although Roger Federer has shown little sign of losing his grip at the very top of men's tennis. One of the leading contenders to lead the next generation of male players at the top of the sport faces him in the Semi Final as Hyeon Chung looks to take out another former Australian Open Champion.
After beating Novak Djokovic in the Fourth Round, Chung will take aim at the defending Champion and the confidence has to be flowing through the body of the South Korean player. Beating Djokovic and Alexander Zverev during the tournament will have given Chung a shot in the arm, but I don't think many will argue when saying that facing Federer is another step up in terms of a challenge for the youngster.
Djokovic is coming off a long injury lay off and had chances to turn around a couple of sets in the defeat to Chung, while Zverev has not made the kind of impact at a Grand Slam that his general tennis suggests he should have. Even then Zverev dominated the first three sets against Chung before falling away and there is no way that Federer would do that in barring something unforeseen, like an injury mid-match, occurring.
It has been a really good defence of the Australian Open title so far for Federer who has yet to drop a set. That stat is perhaps a little fortunate when you see how well Tomas Berdych played in the first set against Federer in the Quarter Final a couple of days ago, but there is also little doubt that Federer is playing at a very high level which is going to put pressure on Chung.
There is a lot to like about Chung and the way he plays- the comparison to Novak Djokovic is apt, but I also remember the first time Djokovic played a rock solid Federer in a best of five set match. That came in the Davis Cup and Federer dominated before next playing Djokovic here in Melbourne back in 2007 and crushing a young challenger in a match where some thought it could be very close.
Federer has been serving well enough to put plenty of pressure on Chung who simply is a player still developing and who doesn't look after the serve nearly as well. The defensive skills have to be respected, but Federer won't go away like Zverev and is playing at a higher level than Djokovic at this stage of their careers.
I would expect Federer to have the majority of break points in this one and I think the confidence and belief in his game means the Swiss superstar won't be ruffled by Chung's defensive skills. I expect Chung to have some really good moments too to highlight the potential he has, but ultimately I would expect Federer to make his way into yet another Australian Open Final and I can see the scoreboard perhaps looking tough on Chung.
Federer should be able to wear down his opponent as he produces a 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 win to make his way through to the Sunday Final against Marin Cilic.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-38, - 6.50 Units (143 Units Staked, - 4.41% Yield)
Wednesday, 24 January 2018
Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2018 (January 25th)
There might be some unfamiliar and unexpected names at the business end of the first Grand Slam of the season, but this isn't a bad thing for tennis which needs to produce some new stars to challenge the established names on the Tour.
It also makes for some intriguing matches which look very competitive on paper, although some of the big names will be hoping they can still leave their mark on the event.
By the end of Day 11 at the Australian Open we will know the two Finalists in the women's tournament and half of the men's Final will also be determined. This is the last really busy day of the Australian Open with the final three days having one Singles match set for each day.
Tennis Picks from Day 11 are below.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Kyle Edmund: Both Marin Cilic and Kyle Edmund went into their Quarter Final matches as significant underdogs, but both were able to move past Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov respectively. Beating players who are in the top 5 of the World Rankings will have given both Cilic and Edmund plenty of belief to take into this Semi Final and there will be a similar approach from both players.
The heavy serve followed by a big forehand is going to be the play for both Cilic and Edmund as they try and dictate rallies on their own terms. I do think Cilic has the slightly better serve, particularly on the second serve, but Edmund has the bigger forehand that can cause havoc when he is hitting the marks.
Cilic will believe his backhand is a little more secure too and I do give the Croatian the edge in a tough Semi Final.
It won't be easy with the way Edmund has fought through some difficult moments all week, but at some point I do wonder if all the tennis he has played is going to come back and be a factor. At the moment Cilic has dropped half the number of sets that Edmund has through the tournament and he will have benefited from the unfortunate injury Rafael Nadal suffered in their Quarter Final match.
This is all about making sure recovery times are used to the fullest for both Cilic and Edmund in the time between their Quarter Final and the start of this Semi Final. However another edge that seems to be leaning towards Cilic is the superior returning ability and I think he is going to be able to have plenty of joy against the Edmund second serve which is going to prove to be the difference in the match.
Edmund has seemed a calm character this past week as he has come through difficult moments against Kevin Anderson and Nikoloz Basilashvili, while character was shown in losing his break advantage in the fourth set against Grigor Dimitrov by breaking again in the next return game. However now he has to deal with the chance of making a maiden Grand Slam Final and that puts a different emotional baggage on a match, although Cilic will also deal with the pressure of being a favourite and expected to win.
Cilic has made it through to Grand Slam Finals though and he has won the US Open which is going to give him another edge in experience. It does feel like things are falling down on his side of the court a little more and I think Cilic can use that to get the better of Edmund in what is likely to be a tough match.
The returning numbers look significantly better in favour of Cilic through the tournament and I think he is able to cover this number of games in a four set win. The Croatian likely will have to deal with some early nerves and Edmund is playing well enough to take a set, but I think Cilic will have the majority of break points.
He is playing at a level where you think he will take those that chances when they come his way and I like Cilic to progress to another Grand Slam Final on Thursday.
Elise Mertens v Caroline Wozniacki: It might not have been the best performance Elina Svitolina has ever produced, but much of the credit has to be given to Elise Mertens for the way she handled her first Grand Slam Quarter Final. The Belgian has long been considered one of the brightest young talents on the WTA Tour, and she has made her move at the Australian Open after winning the title in Hobart this month.
Confidence can be so important for players to find the extra percent or two which can take someone from an also-ran into a contender. That has to be helping Mertens who has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and who has the kind of game that looks like it will be very difficult to break down.
The task falls to Caroline Wozniacki who has to know her chances of winning a maiden Grand Slam may not ever get better than here in Melbourne. The Dane has been in good form herself, but I do wonder if the incredibly late finish in her Quarter Final win over Carla Suarez Navarro could have a negative influence on her in this Semi Final.
Even then, Wozniacki has a considerable edge in experience and she will feel her Second Round win over Jana Fett means it is her destiny to win the title here. Wozniacki was down match points and 5-1 in the deciding set before turning things back in her favour and she has looked strong ever since with just a single set dropped.
It is no surprise that Wozniacki comes in as the favourite having beaten Mertens in their one previous match on the clay courts in Bastad in 2017. That is a surface that is perhaps better for Mertens than for Wozniacki so the latter has to be feeling good about her chances of winning this Semi Final and competing for the title on Saturday evening.
That is probably the sensible thinking too, but I have to say I have been impressed with the way Mertens has played this week. The numbers have been incredibly good on both the service and returning side and Mertens will absolutely believe she has the defence and attack to really go after Wozniacki here, especially if Wozniacki is not hitting through the court which can be a criticism of her game at times.
I imagine there will be a few breaks of serve in this one with the way the two players can return the ball, but I have a feeling the underdog is a big price and worth backing to win. Mertens has the kind of game that should match up well with Wozniacki's and I think there is a little more pop off the ground that can see the Belgian go on and win this match.
We can't really figure out how Mertens will feel in the pressurised situation of a Grand Slam Semi Final but she has handled herself so well this week that I think she will thrive in the situation. I certainly think she will produce close to her best tennis and I believe Mertens has the tools to take the game to Wozniacki and win this one as the underdog.
I will keep the interest to a minimum with Wozniacki capable of playing enough balls to make Mertens begin to feel the nerves, but I think the numbers suggest the latter can win this match. I will look for her aggression and confidence to help protect the serve and the strong returning numbers to get the better of Wozniacki over three sets.
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 games v Simona Halep: A lot of people may consider the winner of this second women's Semi Final as being the favourite to win the title on Saturday as the Australian Open reaches its conclusion.
Both Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep were impressive winners in their Quarter Final matches on Wednesday and fatigue shouldn't be an issue as both dominated those matches. Kerber lost just three games in dismissing Madison Keys, while Simona Halep overcame a slow start to win twelve of the final fourteen games played against Karolina Pliskova to move into the Semi Final.
There is no doubt that this match is going to have a different feel for the two players as there are similarities in their games with movement and strong defensive tennis that can quickly be switched into aggressive offensive tennis. In the Quarter Finals they played two big hitting opponents against whom Kerber and Halep could use the power coming across the court against their opponents and expect their superior movement to wear those opponents down.
I am expecting some long and gruelling rallies in this one and I do think it will be a close match with little between them. The mental edge may belong to Kerber who has won four of the last five matches against Halep, although these two have not met in over twelve months and the latter has taken over as the World Number 1 in that time.
The ankle injury Halep had earlier in the tournament has not really lingered on as the Romanian has continued to move very well, and even the tough 15-13 final set decider against Lauren Davis has not held her back. Both will believe their return game has been working effectively enough to set them up for the victory in this Semi Final and neither Kerber nor Halep possesses a serve that will offer up a lot of cheap points so this is going to be a grind for both players.
The recent head to head does give Kerber and edge, even a slight one, between two players who have yet to lose a match in 2018. Matches between them have been decided by who has returned better on the day and I am giving Kerber the slight edge with a little more power coming out of her racquet that could make the difference in the match.
Expect to see plenty of breaks of serve and I would not be surprised if a final set is needed to decide the outcome of the match. However I think Kerber is playing the best tennis in the tournament and I think she will be able to test the Halep ankle much more than Naomi Osaka and Karolina Pliskova have been able to do and I will look for the German to wear her down over three sets.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games@ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens @ 3.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 33-36, - 5.12 Units (138 Units Staked, - 3.71% Yield)
It also makes for some intriguing matches which look very competitive on paper, although some of the big names will be hoping they can still leave their mark on the event.
By the end of Day 11 at the Australian Open we will know the two Finalists in the women's tournament and half of the men's Final will also be determined. This is the last really busy day of the Australian Open with the final three days having one Singles match set for each day.
Tennis Picks from Day 11 are below.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Kyle Edmund: Both Marin Cilic and Kyle Edmund went into their Quarter Final matches as significant underdogs, but both were able to move past Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov respectively. Beating players who are in the top 5 of the World Rankings will have given both Cilic and Edmund plenty of belief to take into this Semi Final and there will be a similar approach from both players.
The heavy serve followed by a big forehand is going to be the play for both Cilic and Edmund as they try and dictate rallies on their own terms. I do think Cilic has the slightly better serve, particularly on the second serve, but Edmund has the bigger forehand that can cause havoc when he is hitting the marks.
Cilic will believe his backhand is a little more secure too and I do give the Croatian the edge in a tough Semi Final.
It won't be easy with the way Edmund has fought through some difficult moments all week, but at some point I do wonder if all the tennis he has played is going to come back and be a factor. At the moment Cilic has dropped half the number of sets that Edmund has through the tournament and he will have benefited from the unfortunate injury Rafael Nadal suffered in their Quarter Final match.
This is all about making sure recovery times are used to the fullest for both Cilic and Edmund in the time between their Quarter Final and the start of this Semi Final. However another edge that seems to be leaning towards Cilic is the superior returning ability and I think he is going to be able to have plenty of joy against the Edmund second serve which is going to prove to be the difference in the match.
Edmund has seemed a calm character this past week as he has come through difficult moments against Kevin Anderson and Nikoloz Basilashvili, while character was shown in losing his break advantage in the fourth set against Grigor Dimitrov by breaking again in the next return game. However now he has to deal with the chance of making a maiden Grand Slam Final and that puts a different emotional baggage on a match, although Cilic will also deal with the pressure of being a favourite and expected to win.
Cilic has made it through to Grand Slam Finals though and he has won the US Open which is going to give him another edge in experience. It does feel like things are falling down on his side of the court a little more and I think Cilic can use that to get the better of Edmund in what is likely to be a tough match.
The returning numbers look significantly better in favour of Cilic through the tournament and I think he is able to cover this number of games in a four set win. The Croatian likely will have to deal with some early nerves and Edmund is playing well enough to take a set, but I think Cilic will have the majority of break points.
He is playing at a level where you think he will take those that chances when they come his way and I like Cilic to progress to another Grand Slam Final on Thursday.
Elise Mertens v Caroline Wozniacki: It might not have been the best performance Elina Svitolina has ever produced, but much of the credit has to be given to Elise Mertens for the way she handled her first Grand Slam Quarter Final. The Belgian has long been considered one of the brightest young talents on the WTA Tour, and she has made her move at the Australian Open after winning the title in Hobart this month.
Confidence can be so important for players to find the extra percent or two which can take someone from an also-ran into a contender. That has to be helping Mertens who has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and who has the kind of game that looks like it will be very difficult to break down.
The task falls to Caroline Wozniacki who has to know her chances of winning a maiden Grand Slam may not ever get better than here in Melbourne. The Dane has been in good form herself, but I do wonder if the incredibly late finish in her Quarter Final win over Carla Suarez Navarro could have a negative influence on her in this Semi Final.
Even then, Wozniacki has a considerable edge in experience and she will feel her Second Round win over Jana Fett means it is her destiny to win the title here. Wozniacki was down match points and 5-1 in the deciding set before turning things back in her favour and she has looked strong ever since with just a single set dropped.
It is no surprise that Wozniacki comes in as the favourite having beaten Mertens in their one previous match on the clay courts in Bastad in 2017. That is a surface that is perhaps better for Mertens than for Wozniacki so the latter has to be feeling good about her chances of winning this Semi Final and competing for the title on Saturday evening.
That is probably the sensible thinking too, but I have to say I have been impressed with the way Mertens has played this week. The numbers have been incredibly good on both the service and returning side and Mertens will absolutely believe she has the defence and attack to really go after Wozniacki here, especially if Wozniacki is not hitting through the court which can be a criticism of her game at times.
I imagine there will be a few breaks of serve in this one with the way the two players can return the ball, but I have a feeling the underdog is a big price and worth backing to win. Mertens has the kind of game that should match up well with Wozniacki's and I think there is a little more pop off the ground that can see the Belgian go on and win this match.
We can't really figure out how Mertens will feel in the pressurised situation of a Grand Slam Semi Final but she has handled herself so well this week that I think she will thrive in the situation. I certainly think she will produce close to her best tennis and I believe Mertens has the tools to take the game to Wozniacki and win this one as the underdog.
I will keep the interest to a minimum with Wozniacki capable of playing enough balls to make Mertens begin to feel the nerves, but I think the numbers suggest the latter can win this match. I will look for her aggression and confidence to help protect the serve and the strong returning numbers to get the better of Wozniacki over three sets.
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 games v Simona Halep: A lot of people may consider the winner of this second women's Semi Final as being the favourite to win the title on Saturday as the Australian Open reaches its conclusion.
Both Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep were impressive winners in their Quarter Final matches on Wednesday and fatigue shouldn't be an issue as both dominated those matches. Kerber lost just three games in dismissing Madison Keys, while Simona Halep overcame a slow start to win twelve of the final fourteen games played against Karolina Pliskova to move into the Semi Final.
There is no doubt that this match is going to have a different feel for the two players as there are similarities in their games with movement and strong defensive tennis that can quickly be switched into aggressive offensive tennis. In the Quarter Finals they played two big hitting opponents against whom Kerber and Halep could use the power coming across the court against their opponents and expect their superior movement to wear those opponents down.
I am expecting some long and gruelling rallies in this one and I do think it will be a close match with little between them. The mental edge may belong to Kerber who has won four of the last five matches against Halep, although these two have not met in over twelve months and the latter has taken over as the World Number 1 in that time.
The ankle injury Halep had earlier in the tournament has not really lingered on as the Romanian has continued to move very well, and even the tough 15-13 final set decider against Lauren Davis has not held her back. Both will believe their return game has been working effectively enough to set them up for the victory in this Semi Final and neither Kerber nor Halep possesses a serve that will offer up a lot of cheap points so this is going to be a grind for both players.
The recent head to head does give Kerber and edge, even a slight one, between two players who have yet to lose a match in 2018. Matches between them have been decided by who has returned better on the day and I am giving Kerber the slight edge with a little more power coming out of her racquet that could make the difference in the match.
Expect to see plenty of breaks of serve and I would not be surprised if a final set is needed to decide the outcome of the match. However I think Kerber is playing the best tennis in the tournament and I think she will be able to test the Halep ankle much more than Naomi Osaka and Karolina Pliskova have been able to do and I will look for the German to wear her down over three sets.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games
Tuesday, 23 January 2018
Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2018 (January 24th)
I have always been a big fan of all of the Grand Slam events, but the Australian Open is the toughest one from a viewing point of view thanks to the time difference between London and Melbourne.
At this point of the tournament it becomes a little easier with the matches now mainly coming from the evening in Melbourne which means an early morning start in the United Kingdom. Both Finals are 8am starts in London, but I have to say this has not been a good tournament for the picks.
In fact it is looking on course to be my first Grand Slam record since the US Open in 2015 and has been incredibly frustrating with so many of the picks being right on the edge for success and just missing out. It happens at times, but that doesn't make it any better to deal with and I am hoping for a lot more luck behind me than going against me in the last few days of the first Grand Slam of the 2018 season.
The four remaining Quarter Final matches are played on Day 10 and that means there are only two more days of multiple Singles matches on the same day. From Friday it'll be one match a day which signals the end of the Grand Slam and I want a positive run to end this week.
On Tuesday the four Quarter Final matches played saw three big upsets as Elise Mertens, Kyle Edmund and Marin Cilic beat Elina Svitolina, Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal respectively. All credit to the three underdogs who were all worthy winners, although the injury to Nadal is a really disappointing one for a player who has suffered too many in his career.
There is every chance we can get two new Grand Slam Champions by the end of the weekend, although Cilic and Roger Federer look the stand out candidates in the men's event. I love how Edmund has played this week with some battling displays, but that is a lot of tennis to have come through and he has not been scheduled for night sessions which means extra fatigue.
I think that Semi Final with Cilic will be a very close one, and much will depend who serves best on the day, but Edmund is feeling good. He could finish the week as the new British Number 1 and I like the fact new names have started to break through at the top of both the men's and women's games.
However I did say that the women's event has a big void to fill with Serena Williams out and I would have the American down as a big favourite to win any event she enters in 2018. It wouldn't be a big surprise if Serena comes back and dominates the remaining Slams to be played with the aura around her tough to break for the other players on the Tour. I also don't think anyone comes close to the consistency, serving prowess and power Serena Williams brings to the court and it will be a big challenge for any player on the WTA Tour to beat her.
On Tuesday the four Quarter Final matches played saw three big upsets as Elise Mertens, Kyle Edmund and Marin Cilic beat Elina Svitolina, Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal respectively. All credit to the three underdogs who were all worthy winners, although the injury to Nadal is a really disappointing one for a player who has suffered too many in his career.
There is every chance we can get two new Grand Slam Champions by the end of the weekend, although Cilic and Roger Federer look the stand out candidates in the men's event. I love how Edmund has played this week with some battling displays, but that is a lot of tennis to have come through and he has not been scheduled for night sessions which means extra fatigue.
I think that Semi Final with Cilic will be a very close one, and much will depend who serves best on the day, but Edmund is feeling good. He could finish the week as the new British Number 1 and I like the fact new names have started to break through at the top of both the men's and women's games.
However I did say that the women's event has a big void to fill with Serena Williams out and I would have the American down as a big favourite to win any event she enters in 2018. It wouldn't be a big surprise if Serena comes back and dominates the remaining Slams to be played with the aura around her tough to break for the other players on the Tour. I also don't think anyone comes close to the consistency, serving prowess and power Serena Williams brings to the court and it will be a big challenge for any player on the WTA Tour to beat her.
Hyeon Chung win 3-1 v Tennys Sandgren: Not many people would have picked Hyeon Chung versus Tennys Sandgren to be the Quarter Final in the third Quarter of the draw this year at the Australian Open. However both players upset Seeded players in the Fourth Round to make their way through to the Quarter Final and this has to be seen as a major opportunity to get into a position to win a Grand Slam title.
Of course there are still names like Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the final eight who may have something to say about that, but both Chung and Sandgren will see this match as one they can win. From there anything can happen and it is going to be interesting to see how both players respond to emotional and physical efforts put in to win their last match.
Sandgren needed five sets and four hours to beat Dominic Thiem, while Chung beat six time Australian Open Champion Novak Djokovic in straight sets as he held his nerve in three tight sets. Those results will not only give both men huge amounts of confidence, but also a significant boost in the World Rankings which can see them gaining automatic entry to other big events played throughout the year.
Surprising runs also wins added media scrutiny and Sandgren has seen the negative side after being forced to defend who he 'follows' on social media. Some suggestions that he is part of the 'alt right' movement in the United States, or at least highly interested in their activities, puts a different burden on the American player who could see the crowd come out to double up their support for his young opponent.
I do have to say I was surprised to see Chung priced up as big a favourite as he has been considering how well Sandgren has played so far this week. The serve has proven to be a big weapon for Sandgren and he won't be overawed by Chung considering their close match in Auckland earlier this month.
That match ended in three sets in favour of Chung, but the numbers were tight enough to think another competitive match between these players could develop here. However I think the Chung superior fitness will lead him through this contest and into his first Semi Final at this level.
Sandgren had a long match in the Fourth Round and that may come back to haunt him the longer this one goes on. He might have enough to sneak a set again though to back up what has been a fabulous week so far, but Chung should have enough consistency and strong enough defence to find his way to a four set win and that is worth a small interest.
Roger Federer win 3-0 v Tomas Berdych: There is no way Roger Federer will be overlooking Tomas Berdych considering some of the battles these two players have had over the years, but while Federer has remained at a very high level, Berdych has slipped off the top standards players set.
Berdych does really enjoy playing at the Australian Open- in terms of pure results you would perhaps say Wimbledon is the best Grand Slam for Berdych having reached a Final there, but he has reached more Quarter Finals in Melbourne. This is the seventh time in the last eight years that Berdych has reached this Round at the Australian Open so it shouldn't be a surprise that he is back here, while the wins in the last couple of Rounds over Juan Martin Del Potro and Fabio Fognini have to be respected.
A few years ago Berdych was also a huge danger to Federer. Between January 2009 and February 2013, it was Berdych who led the head to head 5-4 and regularly troubled the Swiss superstar.
However it has been one way traffic since then and Federer has moved 19-6 ahead in the head to head with eight straight wins over Berdych since February 2013. A bigger worry for Berdych has to be the fact that he has lost nineteen of the last twenty sets played against Roger Federer and last year was beaten in straight sets in both the Australian Open and Wimbledon as Federer went on to win both tournaments.
Federer has beaten Berdych four times at the Australian Open including straight sets wins in 2016 and 2017 and the numbers lean heavily towards the former World Number 1. The serve continues to set Federer up and Berdych's decline in the return numbers have really shown up against Federer in their matches against one another, while Berdych doesn't defend his serve as well as he once did.
That hasn't shown up in back to back straight sets wins and Berdych has been pretty dominant in Melbourne so far. However he has not played anyone playing close to the level Federer has reached with the latter yet to drop a set in the event and I expect a fully focused Federer to be a little too good in each set they play.
You can't ignore the long run of successes Federer has had against Berdych recently and that has to play on the mind of the Czech player. If he makes a fast start and puts a few games under the belt then perhaps this will be a match that takes a different feel, but the numbers lean heavily towards Federer and he can move into another Semi Final in Melbourne behind a strong straight sets win.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: The Fourth Round was a much easier day in the office for Madison Keys than it was for Angelique Kerber, but I do think this is the kind of match the latter will enjoy more than the one she faced a couple of days ago.
While Keys came out and used her power to get through the challenge of Caroline Garcia in straight sets, Kerber had to come from behind to beat surprising Su-Wei Hsieh who has bamboozled her opponents this week.
The difference in this one is that Kerber is not going to be involved in long winded rallies where her opponent is going to use slice, drop shots and plenty of movement to keep the German from finding her rhythm. Another big difference was that Kerber had to generate plenty of pace of her own as Hsieh was trying to frustrate her into mistakes and moving the ball around with accuracy to just get the Kerber mind all confused as to what was coming next.
That won't be the case against the big hitting American Madison Keys who will look to power down big serves and heavy forehands to penetrate the Kerber defences. This should mean Kerber is able to play the defensive brand of tennis which frustrated Maria Sharapova in the Third Round and also use the pace of the ball coming across to her to find plenty of big shots of her own.
The win in the Fourth Round may have given her confidence too having lost some silly matches in 2017 after a hugely successful 2016.
Keys will feel she can dictate this match on her racquet with the power she possesses, but it is all about the consistency she can produce. At the US Open Keys was able to hold herself together to reach the Final before coming apart against Sloane Stephens in that Final, but she should enjoy the conditions in Melbourne and her numbers have been very strong so far this week.
In saying that, Keys has not met someone like Kerber who has all the tools to really put her in some tough positions. Mentally it is the German with the advantage having won six of their previous seven matches including in all five previous hard court matches.
They haven't met since the end of the 2016 season, but I do like the way Kerber matches up with the Keys game and I think that is important for her here. She can frustrate Keys by getting plenty of balls back in play off the big serve and I think Kerber's defences and ability to turn a rally by using the Keys power to direct the ball back into some awkward positions will give her the edge.
Putting Keys on the move is a strong play to win the match and I like Kerber's chances to do that in this Quarter Final.
Simona Halep - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Arguably the best looking Quarter Final match across both the men's and women's event is the one between Simona Halep and Karolina Pliskova. Both players have held the World Number 1 position on the WTA Tour in the last few months, while they will both feel this tournament represents a real chance to underline that status by winning a maiden Grand Slam.
I can see both players heading into the match with the confidence of thinking they can win and move onto the Semi Final.
Karolina Pliskova has a huge serve which should be a big weapon on the faster courts that have been on display at the Australian Open. While it has been a factor in helping her through her matches, I do think Pliskova has to be even better than she has so far at the Australian Open to keep the pressure on Halep. Too many second serves or not hitting the mark with the first serve would mean Halep is able to get into the rallies and that would shift the momentum of the direction of the match.
On the other hand Halep has to make sure she gets enough first serves in to make sure Pliskova is not able to get on the attack immediately in her own service games. By doing that Halep should have a chance to move Pliskova around the court which reduces the threat from the big groundstrokes and once again would make Halep favourite to win the match.
The Pliskova return game has not been in great form over the last couple of matches which is a concern, while Halep looks like she has recovered from any lingering issues with her ankle.
It is Halep who has the mental edge having won five of the six previous matches these two have played against one another. That includes a win in Cincinnati where the hard courts have traditionally played amongst the fastest on the Tour and that should mean Halep is confident enough to get the job done in this Quarter Final.
Small factors will make big differences in the match and those are hard to read. However it does feel like Pliskova is not peaking as she would have liked going into the last eight of the tournament and I like Halep to find a way to get involved in enough rallies to wear down her more powerful opponent.
I imagine it will be a close match with very little between them, but Halep should be able to just get the better of a tough opponent. Barring Pliskova suddenly finding a huge serving day and returning to the best of her ability, Halep should have the edge.
Ultimately I can't back a player who needs to have an almost perfect day and also hope her opponent is perhaps not quite at the races in this one. With Halep dominating the previous matches, including on fast hard courts, I think she will find a way to get the better of Pliskova in an entertaining Quarter Final and move onto the Semi Final.
Roger Federer win 3-0 v Tomas Berdych: There is no way Roger Federer will be overlooking Tomas Berdych considering some of the battles these two players have had over the years, but while Federer has remained at a very high level, Berdych has slipped off the top standards players set.
Berdych does really enjoy playing at the Australian Open- in terms of pure results you would perhaps say Wimbledon is the best Grand Slam for Berdych having reached a Final there, but he has reached more Quarter Finals in Melbourne. This is the seventh time in the last eight years that Berdych has reached this Round at the Australian Open so it shouldn't be a surprise that he is back here, while the wins in the last couple of Rounds over Juan Martin Del Potro and Fabio Fognini have to be respected.
A few years ago Berdych was also a huge danger to Federer. Between January 2009 and February 2013, it was Berdych who led the head to head 5-4 and regularly troubled the Swiss superstar.
However it has been one way traffic since then and Federer has moved 19-6 ahead in the head to head with eight straight wins over Berdych since February 2013. A bigger worry for Berdych has to be the fact that he has lost nineteen of the last twenty sets played against Roger Federer and last year was beaten in straight sets in both the Australian Open and Wimbledon as Federer went on to win both tournaments.
Federer has beaten Berdych four times at the Australian Open including straight sets wins in 2016 and 2017 and the numbers lean heavily towards the former World Number 1. The serve continues to set Federer up and Berdych's decline in the return numbers have really shown up against Federer in their matches against one another, while Berdych doesn't defend his serve as well as he once did.
That hasn't shown up in back to back straight sets wins and Berdych has been pretty dominant in Melbourne so far. However he has not played anyone playing close to the level Federer has reached with the latter yet to drop a set in the event and I expect a fully focused Federer to be a little too good in each set they play.
You can't ignore the long run of successes Federer has had against Berdych recently and that has to play on the mind of the Czech player. If he makes a fast start and puts a few games under the belt then perhaps this will be a match that takes a different feel, but the numbers lean heavily towards Federer and he can move into another Semi Final in Melbourne behind a strong straight sets win.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: The Fourth Round was a much easier day in the office for Madison Keys than it was for Angelique Kerber, but I do think this is the kind of match the latter will enjoy more than the one she faced a couple of days ago.
While Keys came out and used her power to get through the challenge of Caroline Garcia in straight sets, Kerber had to come from behind to beat surprising Su-Wei Hsieh who has bamboozled her opponents this week.
The difference in this one is that Kerber is not going to be involved in long winded rallies where her opponent is going to use slice, drop shots and plenty of movement to keep the German from finding her rhythm. Another big difference was that Kerber had to generate plenty of pace of her own as Hsieh was trying to frustrate her into mistakes and moving the ball around with accuracy to just get the Kerber mind all confused as to what was coming next.
That won't be the case against the big hitting American Madison Keys who will look to power down big serves and heavy forehands to penetrate the Kerber defences. This should mean Kerber is able to play the defensive brand of tennis which frustrated Maria Sharapova in the Third Round and also use the pace of the ball coming across to her to find plenty of big shots of her own.
The win in the Fourth Round may have given her confidence too having lost some silly matches in 2017 after a hugely successful 2016.
Keys will feel she can dictate this match on her racquet with the power she possesses, but it is all about the consistency she can produce. At the US Open Keys was able to hold herself together to reach the Final before coming apart against Sloane Stephens in that Final, but she should enjoy the conditions in Melbourne and her numbers have been very strong so far this week.
In saying that, Keys has not met someone like Kerber who has all the tools to really put her in some tough positions. Mentally it is the German with the advantage having won six of their previous seven matches including in all five previous hard court matches.
They haven't met since the end of the 2016 season, but I do like the way Kerber matches up with the Keys game and I think that is important for her here. She can frustrate Keys by getting plenty of balls back in play off the big serve and I think Kerber's defences and ability to turn a rally by using the Keys power to direct the ball back into some awkward positions will give her the edge.
Putting Keys on the move is a strong play to win the match and I like Kerber's chances to do that in this Quarter Final.
Simona Halep - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Arguably the best looking Quarter Final match across both the men's and women's event is the one between Simona Halep and Karolina Pliskova. Both players have held the World Number 1 position on the WTA Tour in the last few months, while they will both feel this tournament represents a real chance to underline that status by winning a maiden Grand Slam.
I can see both players heading into the match with the confidence of thinking they can win and move onto the Semi Final.
Karolina Pliskova has a huge serve which should be a big weapon on the faster courts that have been on display at the Australian Open. While it has been a factor in helping her through her matches, I do think Pliskova has to be even better than she has so far at the Australian Open to keep the pressure on Halep. Too many second serves or not hitting the mark with the first serve would mean Halep is able to get into the rallies and that would shift the momentum of the direction of the match.
On the other hand Halep has to make sure she gets enough first serves in to make sure Pliskova is not able to get on the attack immediately in her own service games. By doing that Halep should have a chance to move Pliskova around the court which reduces the threat from the big groundstrokes and once again would make Halep favourite to win the match.
The Pliskova return game has not been in great form over the last couple of matches which is a concern, while Halep looks like she has recovered from any lingering issues with her ankle.
It is Halep who has the mental edge having won five of the six previous matches these two have played against one another. That includes a win in Cincinnati where the hard courts have traditionally played amongst the fastest on the Tour and that should mean Halep is confident enough to get the job done in this Quarter Final.
Small factors will make big differences in the match and those are hard to read. However it does feel like Pliskova is not peaking as she would have liked going into the last eight of the tournament and I like Halep to find a way to get involved in enough rallies to wear down her more powerful opponent.
I imagine it will be a close match with very little between them, but Halep should be able to just get the better of a tough opponent. Barring Pliskova suddenly finding a huge serving day and returning to the best of her ability, Halep should have the edge.
Ultimately I can't back a player who needs to have an almost perfect day and also hope her opponent is perhaps not quite at the races in this one. With Halep dominating the previous matches, including on fast hard courts, I think she will find a way to get the better of Pliskova in an entertaining Quarter Final and move onto the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Hyeon Chung to Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Roger Federer to Win 3-0 @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 30-35, - 9.86 Units (131 Units Staked, - 7.53% Yield)
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 23-24)
January has been rough.
The only positives I can take is that Manchester United are producing the wins, but for the Football Picks it has been a very difficult month.
Late goals have proven to be a kick on the teeth on more than one occasion now, while I have completely misread a few games too and I have to take that on me.
Another positive is that Alexis Sanchez has been signed by United from Arsenal- I will admit I didn't believe it was going to be possible up until the last week and I didn't want to get too excited about the potential arrival until the deal was done. That was concluded on Monday and means Sanchez, or Alexis as he will have on the back of the famous Number 7 shirt, will be available for the FA Cup Fourth Round tie at Yeovil Town on Friday evening.
I will have a short piece for United Corner about the arrival of Sanchez and what it potentially means which should be posted before the FA Cup Fourth Round begins.
This is another slower week of football with the top English clubs getting a chance for a bit more rest ahead of another big push of games. Not all of the clubs are getting a rest though with the League Cup Semi Final Second Legs played on Tuesday and Wednesday with both ties very much up for grabs.
Bristol City v Manchester City Pick: The recent form of Bristol City may not be the best, but you have to think the players are going to be really up for the challenge of trying to add Manchester City to the list of Premier League clubs they have beaten in the League Cup. The 2-1 loss at the Etihad Stadium would have been a result that Lee Johnson would have taken before kick off as it gives his side the chance for the upset in the Second Leg.
It is still a big ask of Bristol City and Manchester City are a short price to make it to the Final as well as to win the Second Leg. They are being asked to cover a big number in this Second Leg, but there are expected to be a number of changes to the first eleven to keep the squad as fresh as possible.
Pep Guardiola has mentioned some of the squad players that deserve a chance, but I think he will sprinkle in some of the more familiar names in the starting eleven to make sure there isn't a shock on the cards. The Manchester City players will have played in tough atmospheres before so I am not concerned with how loud Ashton Gate will be and Guardiola will also believe how much his team dominated in the First Leg should have been rewarded with a bigger lead.
A similar level in the Second Leg should be enough to see Manchester City through to the Final, but Bristol City are certainly going to play their part. The direct and speedy counter attacking in the First Leg gave Manchester City some real problems at the back and Eliaquam Mangala is likely to be back in the line up after having been culpable for the troubles in defensive areas in the First Leg.
Bristol City can trouble Manchester City when they do come forward, but I also think there will be more spaces for Manchester City on the counter attack than in the First Leg. At some point Bristol City are likely going to have to open up with the expectation they are still trying to get back into the tie and the second half could be very entertaining.
A little more composure in the final third from both teams could see the number of goals from the First Leg surpassed in the Second Leg. Both teams should have big chances to score at least once and I think both teams are more comfortable going forward than defending which should be evident from the approach taken.
At odds against I will look for at least four goals to be provided by this fixture. All but one of Manchester City's games in 2018 have ended that way and Bristol City have been a decent attacking team at home which should melt together into a good game of football. A late goal can help this fixture get to the four goal mark as the spaces open up in this Cup tie and I will back that to be the outcome of the Second Leg.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The Alexis Sanchez saga has come to an end at Arsenal and it is up to the players to prove that they are able to produce the quality to replace one of the best players in the Premier League.
It is a big challenge ahead for Arsene Wenger who is once again under pressure from sections of the fanbase who feel he should have moved on as manager some time ago. A Premier League title challenge is long gone and finishing outside of the top four would be a huge blow for the club.
However there is a chance Arsenal can replicate what Manchester United did last season by winning the League Cup and Europa League which would be a very successful season for the club. It would mean trophies and a place back in the Champions League so this League Cup Semi Final Second Leg is a very important one for the entire club.
It is no less important for Chelsea and Antonio Conte who has been under pressure during a run where the side have drawn too many games. That has put them in a tough spot when it comes to challenging for a top four berth in the Premier League and Chelsea also have a lot of football coming up with League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League commitments to come.
Even with that in mind, the team selections made by Conte shows how much he wants to see Chelsea progress in all the competitions they have entered. A strong team is expected to start at the Emirates Stadium too, but there has to be a concern at the poor Chelsea run against Arsenal since the FA Cup Final last season.
Chelsea lost that Final and have drawn all 4 games against Arsenal this season. They should have won with the chances created at the Emirates Stadium earlier this month though and that should give the players belief they can achieve a big result in this Second Leg.
Both teams will feel they can create chances against the other with the way they have matched up and I don't think there will be a lot between them in the ninety minutes. For the most part Arsenal and Chelsea have played tight games, but the Second Leg of the League Cup Semi Final could be a more open one.
These teams drew 2-2 here in early January which means the last couple of games between them at the Emirates Stadium have both ended with at least three goals shared out. I will look for the Wednesday game to go the same way as both teams will be desperate to earn their place at Wembley Stadium for the League Cup Final.
MY PICKS: Bristol City-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
The only positives I can take is that Manchester United are producing the wins, but for the Football Picks it has been a very difficult month.
Late goals have proven to be a kick on the teeth on more than one occasion now, while I have completely misread a few games too and I have to take that on me.
Another positive is that Alexis Sanchez has been signed by United from Arsenal- I will admit I didn't believe it was going to be possible up until the last week and I didn't want to get too excited about the potential arrival until the deal was done. That was concluded on Monday and means Sanchez, or Alexis as he will have on the back of the famous Number 7 shirt, will be available for the FA Cup Fourth Round tie at Yeovil Town on Friday evening.
I will have a short piece for United Corner about the arrival of Sanchez and what it potentially means which should be posted before the FA Cup Fourth Round begins.
This is another slower week of football with the top English clubs getting a chance for a bit more rest ahead of another big push of games. Not all of the clubs are getting a rest though with the League Cup Semi Final Second Legs played on Tuesday and Wednesday with both ties very much up for grabs.
Bristol City v Manchester City Pick: The recent form of Bristol City may not be the best, but you have to think the players are going to be really up for the challenge of trying to add Manchester City to the list of Premier League clubs they have beaten in the League Cup. The 2-1 loss at the Etihad Stadium would have been a result that Lee Johnson would have taken before kick off as it gives his side the chance for the upset in the Second Leg.
It is still a big ask of Bristol City and Manchester City are a short price to make it to the Final as well as to win the Second Leg. They are being asked to cover a big number in this Second Leg, but there are expected to be a number of changes to the first eleven to keep the squad as fresh as possible.
Pep Guardiola has mentioned some of the squad players that deserve a chance, but I think he will sprinkle in some of the more familiar names in the starting eleven to make sure there isn't a shock on the cards. The Manchester City players will have played in tough atmospheres before so I am not concerned with how loud Ashton Gate will be and Guardiola will also believe how much his team dominated in the First Leg should have been rewarded with a bigger lead.
A similar level in the Second Leg should be enough to see Manchester City through to the Final, but Bristol City are certainly going to play their part. The direct and speedy counter attacking in the First Leg gave Manchester City some real problems at the back and Eliaquam Mangala is likely to be back in the line up after having been culpable for the troubles in defensive areas in the First Leg.
Bristol City can trouble Manchester City when they do come forward, but I also think there will be more spaces for Manchester City on the counter attack than in the First Leg. At some point Bristol City are likely going to have to open up with the expectation they are still trying to get back into the tie and the second half could be very entertaining.
A little more composure in the final third from both teams could see the number of goals from the First Leg surpassed in the Second Leg. Both teams should have big chances to score at least once and I think both teams are more comfortable going forward than defending which should be evident from the approach taken.
At odds against I will look for at least four goals to be provided by this fixture. All but one of Manchester City's games in 2018 have ended that way and Bristol City have been a decent attacking team at home which should melt together into a good game of football. A late goal can help this fixture get to the four goal mark as the spaces open up in this Cup tie and I will back that to be the outcome of the Second Leg.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The Alexis Sanchez saga has come to an end at Arsenal and it is up to the players to prove that they are able to produce the quality to replace one of the best players in the Premier League.
It is a big challenge ahead for Arsene Wenger who is once again under pressure from sections of the fanbase who feel he should have moved on as manager some time ago. A Premier League title challenge is long gone and finishing outside of the top four would be a huge blow for the club.
However there is a chance Arsenal can replicate what Manchester United did last season by winning the League Cup and Europa League which would be a very successful season for the club. It would mean trophies and a place back in the Champions League so this League Cup Semi Final Second Leg is a very important one for the entire club.
It is no less important for Chelsea and Antonio Conte who has been under pressure during a run where the side have drawn too many games. That has put them in a tough spot when it comes to challenging for a top four berth in the Premier League and Chelsea also have a lot of football coming up with League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League commitments to come.
Even with that in mind, the team selections made by Conte shows how much he wants to see Chelsea progress in all the competitions they have entered. A strong team is expected to start at the Emirates Stadium too, but there has to be a concern at the poor Chelsea run against Arsenal since the FA Cup Final last season.
Chelsea lost that Final and have drawn all 4 games against Arsenal this season. They should have won with the chances created at the Emirates Stadium earlier this month though and that should give the players belief they can achieve a big result in this Second Leg.
Both teams will feel they can create chances against the other with the way they have matched up and I don't think there will be a lot between them in the ninety minutes. For the most part Arsenal and Chelsea have played tight games, but the Second Leg of the League Cup Semi Final could be a more open one.
These teams drew 2-2 here in early January which means the last couple of games between them at the Emirates Stadium have both ended with at least three goals shared out. I will look for the Wednesday game to go the same way as both teams will be desperate to earn their place at Wembley Stadium for the League Cup Final.
MY PICKS: Bristol City-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Monday, 22 January 2018
Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2018 (January 23rd)
The Quarter Final Round in any Slam is going to see the pressure ramped up on the players who had made it this far as they begin to smell a place in the Final at the weekend. No one will want to lose at this stage, but having the conviction to play your best tennis in tense situations can be tough.
Most of the players that have got to this Round in the men's draw from the top half have had considerable success at Slams in the past, although Kyle Edmund does give us a new name. He is very likely to be the British Number 1 before Andy Murray is able to make his return to the Tour, but a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final is a tough new experience to deal with and one that will give Edmund a boost to take into the rest of the season no matter if he wins or loses.
The women's bottom half is also one filled with experience of big matches, but there will be tension in the air. None of the players have won a Grand Slam tournament and the likes of Caroline Wozniacki and Elina Svitolina may feel this is their best chance to reach the Final in what has always looked a draw they could dominate.
Both Elise Mertens and Carla Suarez Navarro have made their way through the draw in surprising fashion, but both will feel they have nothing to lose. For Mertens it is a new experience, while the veteran Suarez Navarro could believe this is the last time she has a chance to seriously compete for a Grand Slam title.
It is a big day with four of the Quarter Finals scheduled to be played including Edmund's opportunity which will get some big headlines back home.
Grigor Dimitrov-Kyle Edmund over 37.5 games: After reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open last year and then finishing off 2017 with the ATP Finals success in London, Grigor Dimitrov would have expected to be at the business end of the first Grand Slam in 2018. More unexpected would have been the opponent Kyle Edmund who has really started to fulfil some of his potential this week.
This is not someone that Dimitrov will take lightly having played such a close match against Edmund in Brisbane. That is the second time Dimitrov has beaten Edmund over the last six months, but both times he has needed to come through a deciding set and the Bulgarian will be fully aware of the kind of threat the British player poses.
A heavy forehand backs up a serve that has been very effective and I don't think there should be too many concerns with the amount of tennis Edmund has had to play this week. While getting through in straight sets is obviously a better way to progress through the tough Grand Slams, Edmund will have benefited tremendously from winning close matches like he has to move into a maiden Quarter Final at this level.
Edmund needed five sets to see off Kevin Anderson and Nikoloz Basilashvili, while also needing four sets to beat Andreas Seppi in the Fourth Round. However the numbers have been good enough to give him the belief that he can go even further in the draw, while Dimitrov himself has had some tough and emotional battles himself this week.
Out of the two players it is Dimitrov who holds a significant experience edge which should prove to be a key to the outcome of this match. However Edmund should not be intimidated in facing an opponent he pushed all the way in their two previous matches including in Brisbane earlier this month and the serves are likely to be crucial for both men.
Both have strong numbers behind the serve, but I also think both Dimitrov and Edmund can be put under pressure at times which can lead to a sloppy service game or two. The Edmund forehand has to be firing to make this a match, but I think he is capable of at least winning a set against Dimitrov even if my overall lean is towards the higher Ranked player.
I did consider making this a small interest in Dimitrov winning this in four sets, but it may be more prudent to back the total games line to be surpassed. That makes sense when I look at the serving numbers of both players and there is also the possibility, albeit slim one, that the total games would be potentially covered in a three set win for either player.
Matches between these two have been tight and needed to go the distance so taking the over looks the right way to make a play on this Quarter Final.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: There are always going to be tougher than expected matches during the Grand Slam for any player that wants to win the title. In seven matches you can't expect players to be at their very highest level each time and the key is to make sure you get through matches where you have to tough it out.
Both Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal had to do that in the Fourth Round but both have made it through to the Quarter Final and as former Grand Slam Champions they will know how to deal with the pressure that comes in the final few Rounds of a Slam.
The pressure is on Cilic to try and do something a little different against an opponent who has dominated him in their matches on the Tour. It can be tough for someone with Cilic's game to really change his approach as he will always feel that his best shot is to be aggressive and try and punch through his opponent behind a big serve and heavy groundstrokes.
However that has not really worked against someone who defends as well as Nadal and who is very capable of shifting the momentum of a point very quickly. They played each twice last season and while one match ended in favour of Nadal much more comfortably on the scoreboard than the other, it was the Spaniard who won all four sets these two players competed.
The numbers were comparable in both matches though as Nadal was able to win plenty of points on the return of serve and protected his own serve effectively. Someone like Cilic will force break points with the heavy shots he can produce and the aggressive return, but Nadal is someone who will find a way to break down the groundstrokes and he is capable of getting enough balls back in play to set up plenty of opportunities of his own.
Nadal has played some solid tennis in the draw to get through to the Quarter Final too and he is a far better player than Pablo Carreno Busta who gave Marin Cilic unnecessary troubles in the Fourth Round. This is a much different test for Cilic who has to wipe out previous experiences against Nadal and I think it is going to be another tough day for the Croatian in this one.
Since beating Nadal in their first meeting back in 2009, Cilic has won one of the next twelve sets these players have competed. That includes a straight sets defeat at the Australian Open in 2011 and I think Nadal is going to be the dominant player in this one with the numbers favouring him too.
While Cilic could cause problems for a while, I think he may lose some heart if he falls behind and I think Nadal is going to win this match and cover the number of games he is being asked to.
Carla Suarez Navarro-Caroline Wozniacki over 19.5 games: Both Caroline Wozniacki and Carla Suarez Navarro have shown some tremendous character to get through to the Quarter Final with both players having to come through some difficult moments on their way to this Round.
There has to be a question mark about Suarez Navarro who has won three consecutive matches in a final set decider and needed 14 games to beat her last opponent 8-6 in the third set. That will have taken something out of the tank both physically and emotionally for the Spaniard who has had a splattering of Quarter Finals at Grand Slam events through her career.
This is as far as Suarez Navarro has reached in these Grand Slam tournaments and the worry for her fans has to be the number of times she has been blown away in those previous Quarter Finals. 5 times Suarez Navarro has played a Grand Slam Quarter Final and 4 of those have been incredibly uncompetitive which has to be playing on her mind.
Concerns could be eased by the fact that Suarez Navarro has played Wozniacki tough in their career meetings and beat her on the clay courts last year. That is a surface that should favour the Spaniard over Wozniacki, but she may also be able to use the pace of the court to be an effective challenger to the Number 2 Seed.
Much will depend on the mindset coming into this match and whether Suarez Navarro can forget about her past Grand Slam Quarter Final nightmares. There also has to be some recovery from three tough matches in a row compared with Wozniacki who has come through her last two matches relatively comfortably with her aggressive style suiting the courts here.
Wozniacki has reached this stage of a Grand Slam 9 times and moved through to the Semi Final 6 times which means she has a significant experience edge. However I do think Wozniacki's game blends well with the Suarez Navarro one and I am expecting a tighter Quarter Final than the layers are thinking.
My problem with Suarez Navarro is having seen her enough times go completely awol in these huge Grand Slam matches, especially behind the serve. Doing that here will be a very tough spot for the Spaniard to recover with the way Wozniacki has been playing, while the tennis in the legs could cause fatigue to set in.
However this is the kind of opponent who should match up well for Suarez Navarro and I will look for her to keep this relatively competitive. There is every chance she can take a set off Wozniacki despite the performances the latter has been producing and their last two matches against one another on the hard courts have gone the distance.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There have been some quality performances from some of the top players that remain in the Australian Open, but one of the best came from Elina Svitolina in the Fourth Round. She demolished Denisa Allertova after a difficult start and the Ukrainian does look like being the player to beat in the women's draw.
There is a confidence that is in evidence when you hear how Svitolina refuses to downplay her chances of going all the way in the draw and I favour her to come through what could be a difficult test in Elise Mertens.
The young Belgian has yet to drop a set in the tournament and wins over the likes of Daria Gavrilova and Alize Cornet do sit very well. Mertens has shown she is more than a competent returner and the last serving performance in the win over Petra Martic will give her confidence.
However it has to be said that now she faces a consistent player with plenty of power from the back of the court who will be looking to put Mertens under some significant pressure. The Svitolina serve can sometimes be one that is vulnerable, but there have been little signs of that at the Australian Open and her numbers behind the serve have actually been very impressive.
This might be the toughest returner she has played since her win over Katerina Siniakova in the Second Round though and so I would expect Svitolina to be more challenged than she has in the last two Rounds. However the free flowing, heavy hitting is providing plenty of dividends on the return too and that makes Svitolina dangerous when you think of how Mertens has had her serve attacked by the likes of Gavrilova and Cornet.
It was a real problem for Mertens when these two met on a clay court in a Final last year as Svitolina dominated on the return to secure an easy win. The feeling is that this Quarter Final is going to go in a similar fashion with Mertens likely to put under pressure and trying to fight off the break points that Svitolina will be creating.
She will likely have some success on the Svitolina serve to stay competitive, but I think a few more bigger points will be won by the Ukrainian and that can see her come away with the cover and a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov-Kyle Edmund Over 37.5 Games @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro-Caroline Wozniacki Over 19.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 28-34, - 11.40 Units (125 Units Staked, - 9.12% Yield)
Most of the players that have got to this Round in the men's draw from the top half have had considerable success at Slams in the past, although Kyle Edmund does give us a new name. He is very likely to be the British Number 1 before Andy Murray is able to make his return to the Tour, but a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final is a tough new experience to deal with and one that will give Edmund a boost to take into the rest of the season no matter if he wins or loses.
The women's bottom half is also one filled with experience of big matches, but there will be tension in the air. None of the players have won a Grand Slam tournament and the likes of Caroline Wozniacki and Elina Svitolina may feel this is their best chance to reach the Final in what has always looked a draw they could dominate.
Both Elise Mertens and Carla Suarez Navarro have made their way through the draw in surprising fashion, but both will feel they have nothing to lose. For Mertens it is a new experience, while the veteran Suarez Navarro could believe this is the last time she has a chance to seriously compete for a Grand Slam title.
It is a big day with four of the Quarter Finals scheduled to be played including Edmund's opportunity which will get some big headlines back home.
Grigor Dimitrov-Kyle Edmund over 37.5 games: After reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open last year and then finishing off 2017 with the ATP Finals success in London, Grigor Dimitrov would have expected to be at the business end of the first Grand Slam in 2018. More unexpected would have been the opponent Kyle Edmund who has really started to fulfil some of his potential this week.
This is not someone that Dimitrov will take lightly having played such a close match against Edmund in Brisbane. That is the second time Dimitrov has beaten Edmund over the last six months, but both times he has needed to come through a deciding set and the Bulgarian will be fully aware of the kind of threat the British player poses.
A heavy forehand backs up a serve that has been very effective and I don't think there should be too many concerns with the amount of tennis Edmund has had to play this week. While getting through in straight sets is obviously a better way to progress through the tough Grand Slams, Edmund will have benefited tremendously from winning close matches like he has to move into a maiden Quarter Final at this level.
Edmund needed five sets to see off Kevin Anderson and Nikoloz Basilashvili, while also needing four sets to beat Andreas Seppi in the Fourth Round. However the numbers have been good enough to give him the belief that he can go even further in the draw, while Dimitrov himself has had some tough and emotional battles himself this week.
Out of the two players it is Dimitrov who holds a significant experience edge which should prove to be a key to the outcome of this match. However Edmund should not be intimidated in facing an opponent he pushed all the way in their two previous matches including in Brisbane earlier this month and the serves are likely to be crucial for both men.
Both have strong numbers behind the serve, but I also think both Dimitrov and Edmund can be put under pressure at times which can lead to a sloppy service game or two. The Edmund forehand has to be firing to make this a match, but I think he is capable of at least winning a set against Dimitrov even if my overall lean is towards the higher Ranked player.
I did consider making this a small interest in Dimitrov winning this in four sets, but it may be more prudent to back the total games line to be surpassed. That makes sense when I look at the serving numbers of both players and there is also the possibility, albeit slim one, that the total games would be potentially covered in a three set win for either player.
Matches between these two have been tight and needed to go the distance so taking the over looks the right way to make a play on this Quarter Final.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: There are always going to be tougher than expected matches during the Grand Slam for any player that wants to win the title. In seven matches you can't expect players to be at their very highest level each time and the key is to make sure you get through matches where you have to tough it out.
Both Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal had to do that in the Fourth Round but both have made it through to the Quarter Final and as former Grand Slam Champions they will know how to deal with the pressure that comes in the final few Rounds of a Slam.
The pressure is on Cilic to try and do something a little different against an opponent who has dominated him in their matches on the Tour. It can be tough for someone with Cilic's game to really change his approach as he will always feel that his best shot is to be aggressive and try and punch through his opponent behind a big serve and heavy groundstrokes.
However that has not really worked against someone who defends as well as Nadal and who is very capable of shifting the momentum of a point very quickly. They played each twice last season and while one match ended in favour of Nadal much more comfortably on the scoreboard than the other, it was the Spaniard who won all four sets these two players competed.
The numbers were comparable in both matches though as Nadal was able to win plenty of points on the return of serve and protected his own serve effectively. Someone like Cilic will force break points with the heavy shots he can produce and the aggressive return, but Nadal is someone who will find a way to break down the groundstrokes and he is capable of getting enough balls back in play to set up plenty of opportunities of his own.
Nadal has played some solid tennis in the draw to get through to the Quarter Final too and he is a far better player than Pablo Carreno Busta who gave Marin Cilic unnecessary troubles in the Fourth Round. This is a much different test for Cilic who has to wipe out previous experiences against Nadal and I think it is going to be another tough day for the Croatian in this one.
Since beating Nadal in their first meeting back in 2009, Cilic has won one of the next twelve sets these players have competed. That includes a straight sets defeat at the Australian Open in 2011 and I think Nadal is going to be the dominant player in this one with the numbers favouring him too.
While Cilic could cause problems for a while, I think he may lose some heart if he falls behind and I think Nadal is going to win this match and cover the number of games he is being asked to.
Carla Suarez Navarro-Caroline Wozniacki over 19.5 games: Both Caroline Wozniacki and Carla Suarez Navarro have shown some tremendous character to get through to the Quarter Final with both players having to come through some difficult moments on their way to this Round.
There has to be a question mark about Suarez Navarro who has won three consecutive matches in a final set decider and needed 14 games to beat her last opponent 8-6 in the third set. That will have taken something out of the tank both physically and emotionally for the Spaniard who has had a splattering of Quarter Finals at Grand Slam events through her career.
This is as far as Suarez Navarro has reached in these Grand Slam tournaments and the worry for her fans has to be the number of times she has been blown away in those previous Quarter Finals. 5 times Suarez Navarro has played a Grand Slam Quarter Final and 4 of those have been incredibly uncompetitive which has to be playing on her mind.
Concerns could be eased by the fact that Suarez Navarro has played Wozniacki tough in their career meetings and beat her on the clay courts last year. That is a surface that should favour the Spaniard over Wozniacki, but she may also be able to use the pace of the court to be an effective challenger to the Number 2 Seed.
Much will depend on the mindset coming into this match and whether Suarez Navarro can forget about her past Grand Slam Quarter Final nightmares. There also has to be some recovery from three tough matches in a row compared with Wozniacki who has come through her last two matches relatively comfortably with her aggressive style suiting the courts here.
Wozniacki has reached this stage of a Grand Slam 9 times and moved through to the Semi Final 6 times which means she has a significant experience edge. However I do think Wozniacki's game blends well with the Suarez Navarro one and I am expecting a tighter Quarter Final than the layers are thinking.
My problem with Suarez Navarro is having seen her enough times go completely awol in these huge Grand Slam matches, especially behind the serve. Doing that here will be a very tough spot for the Spaniard to recover with the way Wozniacki has been playing, while the tennis in the legs could cause fatigue to set in.
However this is the kind of opponent who should match up well for Suarez Navarro and I will look for her to keep this relatively competitive. There is every chance she can take a set off Wozniacki despite the performances the latter has been producing and their last two matches against one another on the hard courts have gone the distance.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There have been some quality performances from some of the top players that remain in the Australian Open, but one of the best came from Elina Svitolina in the Fourth Round. She demolished Denisa Allertova after a difficult start and the Ukrainian does look like being the player to beat in the women's draw.
There is a confidence that is in evidence when you hear how Svitolina refuses to downplay her chances of going all the way in the draw and I favour her to come through what could be a difficult test in Elise Mertens.
The young Belgian has yet to drop a set in the tournament and wins over the likes of Daria Gavrilova and Alize Cornet do sit very well. Mertens has shown she is more than a competent returner and the last serving performance in the win over Petra Martic will give her confidence.
However it has to be said that now she faces a consistent player with plenty of power from the back of the court who will be looking to put Mertens under some significant pressure. The Svitolina serve can sometimes be one that is vulnerable, but there have been little signs of that at the Australian Open and her numbers behind the serve have actually been very impressive.
This might be the toughest returner she has played since her win over Katerina Siniakova in the Second Round though and so I would expect Svitolina to be more challenged than she has in the last two Rounds. However the free flowing, heavy hitting is providing plenty of dividends on the return too and that makes Svitolina dangerous when you think of how Mertens has had her serve attacked by the likes of Gavrilova and Cornet.
It was a real problem for Mertens when these two met on a clay court in a Final last year as Svitolina dominated on the return to secure an easy win. The feeling is that this Quarter Final is going to go in a similar fashion with Mertens likely to put under pressure and trying to fight off the break points that Svitolina will be creating.
She will likely have some success on the Svitolina serve to stay competitive, but I think a few more bigger points will be won by the Ukrainian and that can see her come away with the cover and a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov-Kyle Edmund Over 37.5 Games @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro-Caroline Wozniacki Over 19.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 28-34, - 11.40 Units (125 Units Staked, - 9.12% Yield)
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