US Open Day 1 Picks 2013 (August 26th)

The final Grand Slam tournament of the season kicks off on Monday and I think both men's and women's events have a sense of intrigue around them and this should be a fascinating two weeks of tennis.

The men's Final has been moved to the Monday this year after all the disruptions we have seen over the last few years, while the situation for the second men's Semi Final winner had begun to show a clear of picture of that player being hindered in the Final that was played on Sunday.

It won't be a long-term solution of having the Final on a Monday as it goes up against the first Monday Night Football of the new NFL season and fans across the nation will be tuning into the biggest sporting event in the United States, so it was no real surprise that the USTA announced that they will be building a roof over Ashe in the coming years.

The choice was a no-brainer for the United States who believe their tournament is the best of the Grand Slams so they couldn't be seen to be behind the other three Major events who all will have roofs on their main courts by 2017 and the Australian Open is already preparing to put a roof on their second main court.

The rain delays in New York over the last few years have shown that this event needed to do something about the lack of a roof, especially with television coverage suffering, and they have made the correct choice.


It has been a tough season for the tennis picks, especially since Wimbledon, and I have been disappointed with the little things that haven't fallen right. However, it has been so far, so good, when it comes to the Grand Slams, although I found the US Open the toughest event to cap last season.

However, a slight change of fortune is hopefully in the offing at the start of this two weeks of tennis. I have made four outright picks for the tournament and they can be seen here.

What follows are my picks from Day 1 at Flushing Meadows which begins on Monday.


Guillaume Rufin - 1.5 sets v Jan-Lennard Struff: This is a First Round match between two players that are only just ranked inside the top 100 and there is a lot for both young players to gain from a win with the monetary return funding another few months on the Tour.

I have seen both Guillaume Rufin and Jan-Lennard Struff play and I believe the faster surfaces will end up suiting the former more than the latter and I would expect the Frenchman to be a little too strong in this one.

Rufin has a decent serve and can get forward to attack the net and may put enough pressure on Struff during the course of the match to see himself through to the next Round. However, you can't always tell how these players can come out onto the court and I expect there will be some critical points late in a couple of sets, with tie-breaks very much in play to separate the two.

I just have the feeling that Struff isn't too convinced of his own chances on the hard courts, although he can't have asked for a much better opportunity to register a win. Rufin certainly has more experience at a higher level on the hard courts and I believe he comes through in three or four sets.


Bradley Klahn - 2.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: American tennis fans are on the look out for the next breakthrough star from their country that will take on the mantle that has been left by Andy Roddick's retirement last year.

Bradley Klahn will be hoping he can take over and give the audience a new hope in the men's game and, despite being outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, I think this is the kind of First Round draw he would gratefully accept.

He is facing Kenny de Schepper from France and while the big man has an expected big serve, he is fairly limited in other things he can do on the court and I would expect his confidence is a little beaten having lost five straight times on the Tour, although a run to the Fourth Round at Wimbledon cannot be dismissed lightly.

In saying that, de Schepper was the beneficiary of Marin Cilic pulling out of their Second Round match and he is just 3-5 in hard courts matches this year and wasn't ranked high enough to enter the tournament here last year.

I don't want anyone to think I am over-estimating Klahn, but he has won a Challenger on the hard courts during this summer, is playing in front of a crowd that will give him a lot of support, and reached the Second Round here last year so confidence will be on the side of the American in this one and I will back him to come through in four tough sets, but enough to cover the spread.


Nikolay Davydenko win 3-1 v Rhyne Williams: Another young American hope that is playing on the first day of the US Open Grand Slam is Rhyne Williams and he looks a player with some potential, although the consistency is still not anywhere near where it needs to be to win a match of this magnitude.

Williams has a decent serve and a heavy forehand, but rallying against someone like Nikolay Davydenko is going to expose some of the shortcomings, especially with the way the Russian has been playing this summer.

Davydenko isn't the player of a few years ago when he was very much in the mix in the top 5 of the World Rankings, but he has proven that he is a capable player this summer and I expect his experience will be too much. However, he isn't as consistent as he used to be and he can lose concentration in matches, while his serve isn't completely dominant, and that should allow his opponent to steal a set, although I still think Davydenko proves too strong.



Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Ivan Dodig: I am still a little high on what Fernando Verdasco brings to a tennis court and I know there will be a lot of people out there who no longer believe the Spaniard is capable of reaching the latter stages of big events as a singles player.

In all honesty, those people would mainly be right as Fernando Verdasco is back to the erratic ways that blighted his early career before he had his eureka moment at the 2009 Australian Open which led to a couple of decent years on the Tour.

I still believe Verdasco has the game that can perform strongly on the hard courts and his love for the best of five set matches should also inspire a decent tournament out of him, although Ivan Dodig is certainly no pushover as a First Round opponent. The Croatian has a strong serve, powerful groundstrokes and loves getting to the net to put away volleys, but he can go through long periods of making too many unforced errors.

I expect plenty of errors from both men in this one, but I do think Verdasco can come through with a 64, 46, 63, 76 win and will back him at the price on offer for this spread.


Robin Haase win 3-1 v Frank Dancevic: Robin Haase took on a new coach at the beginning of the season and there have been signs that he is taking on board what is being told to him and achieving some real success now. He has made some deep runs at the clay courts that were played over the summer and won a couple of matches in Winston Salem last week in preparation for this tournament so Haase should be in a good place mentally.

The Dutchman hasn't had a lot of success on the hard courts over the last couple of seasons, and he was beaten in the First Round at both the Australian Open in January and here last year.

This isn't an easy match against Frank Dancevic who qualified for the event and has also had a couple of strong runs at recent Challenger tournaments on the surface. The Canadian has a big enough serve to at least keep this match competitive and there is every chance he is going to be good enough to take a set against Haase who can throw in a poor service game from time to time.

I think Haase is likely to come through, but it may just take four sets to get the job done.


Carlos Berlocq v Santiago Giraldo: I won't say a lot about this match as I back the underdog to come through in what the layers believe will be a tight match. Carlos Berlocq has spent his summer playing on the clay courts where he picked up a title and he isn't as effective on the hard courts where the speed of the surface allows opponents to hit through him.

However, Santiago Giraldo can be terribly erratic and has lot the last three matches played against Berlocq, including two of those matches taking place on the hard courts.

Giraldo hasn't had a strong summer during this North American swing, and his erratic play can be exposed by someone like Berlocq who has the habit of getting under the skin of his opponent. That irritating habit may get Giraldo forcing the issue a little too much so a small interest on Berlocq is the call here.


Marinko Matosevic v Tommy Robredo: I was surprised to see Tommy Robredo as such a strong favourite to beat Marinko Matosevic in this First Round match and I do think this has the hallmarks of an upset.

'Mad Dog Matosevic' hasn't played since the Montreal Masters when he picked up some more form following a good run in Washington and his game is comfortable on the faster surfaces. Tommy Robredo has had three wins on the hard courts over the last two weeks, but he has struggled on this surface for much of the last twelve months.

The Australian also beat Robredo earlier this year at Indian Wells and I can see his bigger serve and heavier groundstrokes helping him to earn the upset and he certainly should not be as big a price as I have seen for him in this one. Robredo will be better known by the casual fan, but I think Matosevic deserves a small interest in this one and that is what I will be doing.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Grega Zemjla: It has been a tough 2013 for Roger Federer and while I would be extremely surprised if he wins the tournament in New York, I do think he is capable of coming through this First Round match without too many problems.

Federer likes serving first and has gone back to his old tennis racquet, while Grega Zemlja is one of these players that has a decent serve, but can become very erratic around it and I would not be surprised at all if Federer records at least one 61 scoreline.

That will immediately put him in a strong position to cover this spread, although he is not the kind of player that can be backed with the same confidence of a couple of years ago as he is not defending his own service games with full authority.

I am not concerned too much about that in this match as I think Zemlja doesn't have the belief that he is capable of winning a match like this and he was dominated by Federer when they met earlier this year in Rotterdam.

It is a big spread, but a 61, 64, 64 win would see Federer cover the number and I like him to do so in this First Round match to be played in the evening session.


MY PICKS: Guillaume Rufin - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bradley Klahn - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko win 3-1 @ 3.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Robin Haase win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Carlos Berlocq @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marinko Matosevic @ 2.75 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

US Open Outright Picks 2013 (August 26-September 9)

To say it has been a really poor last two months would be a real understatement when it comes to the tennis picks made, but the frustrating aspect is how close some of the picks have come... That has been a constant source of disappointment and was again highlighted by Juan Martin Del Potro in his Semi Final collapse against John Isner in Cincinnati- he got to match points without giving up a break point, choked it and then proceeded to get broken two of the next three times he served.

That kind of weird situation aside, the outright picks have been a stream of disappointment after players continue to get close before failing- the failings of Novak Djokovic have hurt, while the one time I backed Rafael Nadal to win a tournament this season, he lost in the First Round at Wimbledon.

Things can swing in roundabouts and it has been a poor time- bad luck is one thing, but I have also been guilty of making some bad picks when I wasn't convinced of their suitability and that is down to me. Hopefully the US Open will provide a boost to the coffers although I am expecting a lesser success at the end of the Tour this season as the last two have provided.

Men's Tournament

First Quarter

The Number 1 seed at Flushing Meadows is still Novak Djokovic although he could very easily have been knocked off the top spot in the World Rankings by the time the Australian Open comes around in January, especially if Rafael Nadal continues displaying the form he has since his return.

Djokovic is under pressure to cement his place at the top of the Rankings in tennis viewers minds at this tournament as he currently holds just one of the Grand Slams and his two main rivals, Nadal and Andy Murray, both have the chance to hold two. The points may still call Djokovic the Number 1 player in the World for the time being, but he has to win this tournament to really show that is still the case in reality and not just the twelve month period of consistency.

Up until the Quarter Final, I expect Djokovic will be good enough to come through the draw with few problems, although Grigor Dimitrov will provide something of a test in the Third Round.

The Quarter Final has him seeded to meet Juan Martin Del Potro and the former US Open winner is certainly one of the most dangerous players in the draw. However, Del Potro can be a little vulnerable at times, especially early in the draw and the potential Second Round match against the winner of the Brian Baker-Lleyton Hewitt clash is certainly one potential banana skin before he gets to the Quarter Final.

Other players in the this section like Tommy Haas and Mikhail Youzhny are having strong seasons in their veteran status, but neither would be putting the fear of God in Juan Martin Del Potro and this is likely to be a clash between the top two seeded players in the quarter.

Novak Djokovic beat Del Potro here at the same stage last season and I would expect him to be too strong again- even at Wimbledon, Djokovic blew the chance of winning his Semi Final against the big Argentine in four sets, and he will be focused not to waste energy this time with big matches to be played after this Quarter Final.

First Quarter: Novak Djokovic with a four set win over Juan Martin Del Potro

Second Quarter

We won't be a seeing a repeat of the last US Open, Australian Open and Wimbledon Final this year as Andy Murray was dropped from his Number 2 seed by Rafael Nadal ahead of the tournament and the defending Champion has been placed in the second quarter of the draw this year.

Murray may have been given what looks a semi-awkward start against the serve-volleying of Michael Llodra, but his run through to the Quarter Finals present almost no real dangers as long as the British player is on his game.

I think the days of Murray having a real lapse in the Grand Slams have gone now that he has two under his belt, although this is the first time he enters a Slam as a defending Champion. I don't foresee that producing early problems and there is not one player in the top half of this quarter that I think could take more than a set off of Murray in a best of five at Grand Slam level.

It does seem Murray has been a touch fortunate on that front because the bottom half of the draw has a couple of real awkward characters in it. The favourite to get through to the Quarter Final will be Tomas Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year and also beat Murray in Cincinnati earlier this month.

Berdych should come through the early Rounds with few problems, but he can be wildly erratic on his day and there have been a number of Grand Slam tournaments where he has been a surprise early casualty in the seeded ranks.  However, I would expect him to come through to face either Kevin Anderson or Stanislas Wawrinka, although neither of those players has shown the form at the Masters tournaments to think they would be able to stop what should be a confident Berdych by the Fourth Round.

Andy Murray v Tomas Berdych is a very interesting match up- Berdych leads the head to head, but Murray adapted to the terrible conditions better than Berdych did when they met in the Semi Final here last year to level their Grand Slam matches at 1-1. There is no doubt that Berdych has the power and the mentality to knock off Murray and may well be aided by the fact that it will be for a place in the Semi Final rather than the Final... It is hard to go against Murray considering his form at Wimbledon and the conditions in New York certainly are more to the Brit's liking, but Berdych could spring the surprise.

Second Quarter: Tomas Berdych in five tough sets over Andy Murray, but I hate under-estimating how good Murray is these days.

Third Quarter

Now that the big four have become the big three, there was always a real chance that one of the quarters at the US Open would be void of a really big name- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's absence from the tournament hasn't helped and it is the third quarter where we could see a surprise Semi Finalist.

Usually, David Ferrer would certainly be favoured to come through a wide open section like this one, but the Spaniard has been in terrible form this summer and I am not convinced that he is 100% healthy. He was suffering with some kind of issue at Wimbledon and whether that is still lingering means the doubts about the Number 4 seed are too real to consider him to come through.

Ferrer is a former Semi Finalist in New York so he does have the pedigree, but he didn't play well in Montreal or Cincinnati against opponents he would be expected to beat comfortably so he has to be ignored over the next two weeks.

The draw hasn't been unkind to Ferrer and gives him a chance to play his way into the tournament if I am being fair, but the potential Third Round match against Ernests Gulbis has warning signs flashing brightly all around it for the Spaniard. Gulbis has been a disappointment at Grand Slam level for the most part and I have been expecting him to make a push at this level at the last two events at the French Open and Wimbledon, but it hasn't come as it perhaps should have with the talent he possesses.

Gulbis should get through to the Third Round comfortably, but the match up on a usual day against the terrier like performance of Ferrer would not be a great one. However, on current form, you have to say that the Latvian has a huge chance of emulating his best performance here by reaching the Fourth Round.

I am not convinced that Gulbis has enough to hold himself together mentally for enough best of five set matches to get through to the Semi Final and we may yet have to wait a few more months before he is ready to have his best year on the Tour. Dangerous players like Jerzy Janowicz, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic and possibly Feliciano Lopez are perhaps better players to look at as a surprise Semi Finalist.

Janowicz can at least point to the fact that he reached that position at Wimbledon, although an injury to his forearm has to be a concern, while the other three players I mentioned have all got fragile mental strengths.

Third Quarter: Either Richard Gasquet, who has a very nice draw, or Jerzy Janowicz if he proves to be healthy and ready to go.

Fourth Quarter

The final quarter of the draw sees two old rivals once more on a collision path, although it will actually be the first time they have met in New York despite long and illustrious careers.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are two of the most famous names in men's tennis, but have traded places when it comes to favouritism on the hard courts and I would be extremely surprised if many have tipped Federer to get the better of the Spaniard here when you consider recent form of these two players.

There shouldn't be an under-estimation of Nadal's first opponent this week as he meets Ryan Harrison, one of the big hopes of American tennis, although I can't see the youngster have enough flashy winners to keep Nadal at bay in a best of five set match.

Other awkward matches against an in-from Vasek Pospisil and John Isner are also ahead of Nadal before the Quarter Final, but as long as he remains focused, he would expect to win those matches.

Unlike Nadal, Roger Federer has a chance to play himself into the tournament and I would expect the Swiss man to still have too much in the tank for Sam Querrey in a potential Third Round match. A bigger concern may be a potential Fourth Round clash with the talented, but extremely inconsistent, Kei Nishikori- the Japanese player has beaten Federer already this season and has the game to certainly trouble the 17 time Grand Slam Champion, although there is no guarantee he gets through someone like Bernard Tomic or Tommy Robredo.

If we do end up seeing Nadal v Federer for the first time in New York, I would be surprised if the former isn't the winner... He has always had the style to give Federer problems, but the lack of confidence in some of Federer's play over the course of the season means I could not back him to win that match and you can't ignore the fact that Nadal has a strong winning record against Federer on this surface.

Fourth Quarter: It has to be Rafael Nadal who will be battle hardened by the time he reaches the Semi Final

Winner

If Rafael Nadal's knees are holding up on the hard courts, which he clearly must feel after back to back Masters wins in Montreal and Cincinnati, then it is hard to see anyone taking out the Spaniard before the Final from the bottom half of the draw.

The best of five nature of a Grand Slam does raise some doubts about Nadal's fitness, especially the way he went down at Wimbledon, but his form in the two Masters events certainly makes him the man to beat as far as I am concerned.

We may see a repeat of the 2010 and 2011 Finals here at the US Open as I do think Novak Djokovic is going to be the last man standing from the top half of the draw, although he has fallen in some big matches earlier this season in a concerning manner.

His previous Indian sign over Rafael Nadal has not been there in their recent matches and back to back matches against Juan Martin Del Potro and potentially Andy Murray is a big ask before facing Nadal, although the men's Final has been moved to the Monday.

Current form dictates that the favourite is correct at the tournament with Rafael Nadal leading the way, especially with the way the draw has panned out and the Spaniard will be my pick.

My other pick from the men's draw will be taking Richard Gasquet to come out of the third quarter- I am the first to say that it is an open draw and anyone could come through, but the Frenchman has been given what looks a favourable draw on paper and looks far too big a price. If he has a tough Quarter Final, it could be worth laying him off then, but I will put Gasquet in my staking plan to win the third quarter.

Women's Tournament

First Quarter

There is no doubt that Serena Williams is still the player to beat in any tournament she enters and it is no surprise that she will be going off as an odds on favourite to win this tournament as defending Champion, especially with Maria Sharapova out of the draw.

However, Williams can be vulnerable early in tournaments and she can always be upset as she has been in Australia and England in Slams this season and there is one player in her section that will know how to upset Serena at the very highest level.

Sloane Stephens is a potential Fourth Round opponent who beat Serena at the Australian Open back in January and she has the confidence to upset the apple-cart as shown with her win over Maria Sharapova this summer. If Williams and Stephens met 10 times on a hard court, I would back Serena to win the match 9 times, but there is every chance that the young American could cause a huge sensation in the Fourth Round.

Another former US Open is also in the first quarter of the draw, but Serena's older sister Venus Williams is not the player of old and I would be surprised to see her in the second week of the tournament. Angelique Kerber has reached the Semi Final here before, but her form hasn't been great this summer and she has found herself coming up a little short a few times in 2013.

First Quarter: Serena Williams can't be opposed in 99 out of 100 occasions with the draw as it is, but Sloane Stephens is a live threat.

Second Quarter

The women's event is very top heavy according to the layers and this second quarter of the draw looks one that could be one by a number of players, although the third and fourth favourites to win the US Open are both amongst the players in it.

Agnieszka Radwanska and Na Li have both reached Finals at Grand Slam events in their careers, although the former is yet to pick up her first Major prize.

Out of the two players, I would give the edge to Radwanska with the draw as Li has a couple of tough matches that could potentially make her path to the Quarter Final that much more awkward. Li was beaten by Laura Robson here last season and that could be a Third Round match this year, although Robson has been struggling with an injury.

After that, Jelena Jankovic could be waiting for Li and the Serb could be a dangerous player after reaching the Semi Final in Cincinnati earlier in the month. However, Jankovic is very hit and miss on her day and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary if she is beaten before that potential Fourth Round match.

Li has a decent record against Radwanska in recent meetings, while I am not sure what state of mind the Polish player will be in after the recent passing of her grandfather which has affected her hugely considering the impact he had on her life.

Second Quarter: Na Li can be so erratic at times, but she looks the pick of the players in this section

Third Quarter

Another section of the women's draw that really looks wide open is the the third quarter and we could see another surprise Semi Finalist from this one.

The likes of Caroline Wozniacki, Roberta Vinci, Maria Kirilenko, Simona Halep and Sara Errani will all have their supporters, but there are also some doubts about form, fitness and ability on the hard courts.

Sara Errani was a Semi Finalist last season when she beat her fellow Italian Roberta Vinci in the Quarter Final and there is every chance there could be a repeat of that Quarter Final this year, although Vinci will feel she can turn that around after beating her doubles partner twice in a row.

This is an extremely difficult section to pick a winner from as there are just too many doubts to really give me a chance to pick someone with conviction.

Third Quarter: Really tough part of the draw, but Sara Errani is probably the most consistent player.

Fourth Quarter

The second favourite to win the US Open is Victoria Azarenka and she will have plenty of supporters after beating Serena Williams for the title in Cincinnati and coming so close to winning this Grand Slam last season.

However, there are dangers lurking around every corner of the final quarter of the Women's draw and she will have to negotiate a minefield to go all the way this year.

Alize Cornet has shown very strong consistency on the hard courts this summer and could pose some problems in the Third Round after giving Azarenka all she could handle at the French Open, while Dominika Cibulkova has won the big tournament in Stanford and is a possible Fourth Round opponent.

Even the other half of the draw is not straight-forward as Sam Stosur, a former US Open Champion and winner in Carlsbad with a win over Azarenka in the Final and Petra Kvitova are both very capable players on their day.

Azarenka would start as the favourite against both, especially considering she had owned the head to head against Stosur before the defeat earlier this month, and the win in Cincinnati should have filled the World Number 2 with plenty of confidence.

The hard courts remain her favourite surface and Victoria Azarenka has all the makings of a player that could go very deep this week.

Fourth Quarter: Victoria Azarenka can negotiate a minefield and reach the Semi Final from a tough section

Winner

I am not trying to be overly smart here and anything other than a Serena Williams win would constitute a surprise and the layers would certainly feel the same way with the American odds on to take the title away for the second year in a row.

However, Victoria Azarenka is certainly not afraid of going toe to toe with Williams and she had a chance to win the title here in New York last year, while the win over Williams in Cincinnati will also make her a bigger believer that she can win the title here.

If Williams is surprised early as happened in Melbourne and London, Azarenka will shorten rapidly and I will back her in the outright market here.

I did also say the third quarter of the draw is a tough one to get a real feel for, but Sara Errani looks a big price to win that section in the event. I was surprised that she is double the price that Caroline Wozniacki is in the section and Errani did reach the Semi Final a year ago, although she hasn't had the best summer.

If Errani can come through her first two matches, she may have the momentum behind her to come through this tricky section and I'll have a small interest in keeping her on board.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (3 Units)

Richard Gasquet to win Third Quarter @ 9.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Victoria Azarenka @ 4.50 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Sara Errani to win Third Quarter @ 7.00 Coral (1 Unit)

Tennis Outright Picks (August 12-18): 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (August 12-18): 18-18, + 0.52 Units (71 Units Staked, + 0.7% Yield)

Season 2013: + 10.62 Units (1104.5 Units Staked, + 1.01% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Weekend Football Picks 2013 (August 24-26)

The Premier League and La Liga Divisions both kicked off last week and now we have Serie A beginning this weekend- with the European Champions League Groups being drawn later this week, it is clear that football is back after a long, warm summer.

I have written a few thoughts from the football last weekend which can be read here.

As I have said, it is too early to make long-term judgements on what we have seen on the opening weekend, but a few things did catch my eye. Now we move on to another new weekend with plenty of football taking place throughout Europe and I have a few picks after what proved to be a difficult midweek.

Fulham v Arsenal Pick: The first live game of the weekend comes from Craven Cottage and it seems people can't get enough of Arsenal to win this game after an impressive win in Turkey on Wednesday night.

I'll be the first to admit that I expected a lot more from Fenerbache, but the home side were disappointing and I expect Arsenal to be given a much tougher test by this Fulham team. There are goals in the home side with Dimitar Berbatov, Darren Bent and Bryan Ruiz to call upon and Arsenal will be using Bacary Sagna as a makeshift centre half in this one so I do expect the home side to create chance.

Fulham have also proven time after time that they are more than capable of giving the 'big' teams all they can handle at Craven Cottage, even if they were disappointing last season when being beaten here by all the sides that finished in the top five. However, the game against Arsenal was changed with an early sending off for Steve Sidwell and I think Fulham are definitely capable of avoiding defeat here.

Without reinforcements, Arsenal are not quite as bad as they were against Aston Villa nor as good as Fenerbache made them look on Wednesday- while I think they will be a threat going forward and recognise their performances from last season on their travels, I am looking for Fulham to bring all they can handle and I do think the home side can escape with at least a point with the striking options they have in the side.

I am not convinced Fulham can win the game, but backing them to avoid defeat is the call for me.

Everton v West Brom Pick: Roberto Martinez has sometimes been criticised for favouring style over substance during his time as manager of Wigan Athletic, but Everton fans could certainly be in for an entertaining season if the 2-2 draw at Norwich City is anything to go by from last weekend.

Much like his Wigan teams, Everton poured forward and looked threatening with the ball, but their defensive frailties has to be a concern. although a record of 1 defeat in 23 home games in the Premier League will be expected to be defended by the new manager.

West Brom do look short of striking options without Romelu Lukaku and their new signings will need time to get used to the Premier League, while the unfortunate news for Nicolas Anelka means he misses out. However, Everton look like a side that will present chances to the opposition with the way they approach the game under Roberto Martinez.

With a strong home record against West Brom, I am expecting them to win this game and I think it would make sense to back Everton to win a game with either least 3 or 4 goals scored.

Stoke City v Crystal Palace Pick: Mark Hughes has been tainted badly by his performance as manager of Queens Park Rangers last season, but I still think the Welshman is capable at this level as his spells at Blackburn Rovers and Fulham suggest.

Therefore, I am also not of the belief that Stoke City are in big trouble solely because of Hughes, but they could face some problems after a poor second half of last season. They could have got off to a great start this season when Jon Walters missed a penalty that would have secured an unlikely point at Liverpool last weekend but it is games like this where Stoke need to win.

Facing a newly promoted team in Crystal Palace looks right up Stoke's street and I expect they will have a little too much Premier League know-how for the new boys who still want to strengthen a squad that is weaker than the one that was promoted- Glenn Murray and Wilfried Zaha are big players that are missing this time around.

Palace can at least match the physical side of things that Stoke will bring to the table, but I also think the home side have a touch more quality and that will prove to be the difference in this one.

Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: It took around six months for Aston Villa to finally get on board with what Paul Lambert wanted from his young side, but they were much improved by the end of last season and have opened this campaign in tremendous form.

Whether playing an extra game this week will have taken it out of Aston Villa will only be clear once this game kicks off, while there will be a different onus on the side to attack in front of their own fans rather than the predominantly counter-attacking performances at Arsenal and Chelsea in the last seven days.

They are also going against a recent history which has seen Aston Villa win just 1 of their last 16 home games against Liverpool, especially considering they have lost 10 of those games. Liverpool are a side that can create a lot of chances but the missing Luis Suarez could be a big loss, while I am not convinced they have the pace in the back four to deal with the three forwards that Villa are likely to start with.

Aston Villa were poor against the best sides in the Premier League last season, but they have shown they are going to be a much more difficult proposition this time around in early games and I think they can surprise Liverpool who look very short in the market. If Liverpool are as wasteful as they were at times last Saturday, Villa could certainly spring a second shock win of this young season, but I just think backing them to avoid defeat is the best option.


Cardiff City v Manchester City Pick: We should all expect to see a loud and boisterous Cardiff City crowd in their first game in the Premier League after coming so close to promotion on a number of occasions in recent years. After a poor performance on the opening weekend at West Ham United, I think there will be some improvement in the Cardiff game this week, although facing Manchester City is no easy task.

A lot of people have gone overboard with the way Manchester City played against Newcastle United- it was a top performance, but they were aided massively by their visitors who defended terribly and then saw Steven Taylor sent off before half time.

Manuel Pellegrini has been tasked with winning the Premier League title and that means improving an away record that saw Manchester City win just 9 of their 19 games in the Premier League. However, they have been successful for the most part against the weaker teams and their record against sides that have been relegated in the last three seasons reads at 7-2-0 away from home.

However, City haven't been great when visiting newly promoted teams so Cardiff will feel they can take advantage of the defensive injuries that have blighted the away side ahead of this one. To do so, they will have to do better than the one shot on target they managed last week and I think Manchester City will prove too strong if they can weather the inevitable early storm.

Dutching a couple of correct scores together for the away side could prove very profitable.


Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea Pick: Both Tottenham Hotspur and Swansea were involved in Europa League on Thursday and both scored 5 goals in wins that should make sure they are moving through to the Group Stage of that competition.

It had looked like being a very strong summer for Spurs, even though Gareth Bale is unlikely to still be at White Hart Lane after the international break, but Willian deciding to move to Chelsea late in the day has kind of stopped some of the momentum they had. Spurs still have a good team together, although a little short in defence, but some of the new faces will still need time to settle into life in England.

Roberto Soldado has certainly felt comfortable with three goals to his name already, but I suppose Swansea will pose many more problems than Crystal Palace or Dinamo Tblisi did in the first two games Spurs have played. Swansea are a team with goals in the side and they can be solid defensively, mainly thanks to keeping the ball away from their opponents for much of the game.

I believe Swansea will make it tough for Spurs to get ahead of steam here and it may take just the one goal to separate the teams. There were times at White Hart Lane last season when Spurs struggled and it took some magic from Gareth Bale to help earn the win- without him it could be tough, but I believe Soldado is capable of scoring a goal if a half chance comes his way and that may prove to be the difference between the teams.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: This is the biggest game of the early Premier League season between two teams that may see this as a 'can't lose' rather than a 'must win' kind of game.

I expect the pressure on David Moyes to try and succeed at Old Trafford means he will not want to lose to Chelsea and see Manchester United trail them by 6 points by the end of the first two weekends of action and with a game at Liverpool next on the horizon.

Jose Mourinho has insisted that he did not want to the Manchester United job in the wake of Sir Alex Ferguson's surprise retirement, but I do feel he doth protest too much- I think Mourinho would have jumped at the chance to take over at United, but he is clearly perturbed that he wasn't even called in for a chat and this game will mean a lot to him no matter what he may tell the press that laps up everything he does.

In his first stint as manager of Chelsea, Jose Mourinho was a cautious manager and I think he is still the same when it comes down to it. He will be desperate to avoid defeat here, which would be a very good result for Chelsea and I think that is what they will likely be coming for with the hope they can steal a win.

Recent games between these teams have produced a lot of goals for the most part, but this looks like it will be an exception- 7 of the 10 games between Manchester United and Chelsea while Mourinho in charge of the latter ended with fewer than three goals and 2 of his 3 matches at David Moyes' Everton was the same and this has the makings of a tense, tight Monday night game.


Championship Picks: The Championship is one of the strangest Divisions in all of Europe with so many surprise results, but this is the small section where I put down a few reasons as to why I am picking any teams from this Division to win this weekend.

The first one I am picking is Reading who are playing at Blackpool this week- Blackpool have got 7 points so far this season, but they have ridden their luck in their last couple of games and they may find the relegated Premier League outfit. Reading played well at Bolton Wanderers and can certainly find the goals to give Blackpool some problem, although the home side are boosted by the return of Tom Ince from suspension.

Even then, at the prices, Reading look good for a win this weekend and to extend their unbeaten run to the new season.

The second team I will back is Ipswich Town as they host Leeds United at Portman Road- Ipswich haven't had a great start to the new season, but they have played at Reading and Queens Park Rangers and could have certainly picked up a result at both of those grounds, although they lost twice.

Ipswich have a strong home record against Leeds and have also been playing well here under Mick McCarthy and I like them to make it two out two at home this season.

MY PICKS: Fulham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Everton to Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals scored @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Stoke City @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aston Villa + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City to win 0-2 or 0-3 @ 4.98 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur to win by one goal @ 3.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Reading @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Ipswich Town @ 2.50 William Hill (1 Unit)

August Update: 7-9, + 1.52 Units (22 Units Staked, + 6..91% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Review (August 17-19)

The first weekend of the Premier League is always too soon to make snap judgements for what is going to happen for the next nine months- I mean the top three contenders for the Premier League title all won, the three promoted sides from last season all lost.

That doesn't mean anything in the long run, but there were still a few things that caught my eye from a long weekend of football and these are below.


Sergio Aguero staying fit could bridge the gap to Manchester United: As a Manchester United fan, I would be the first to tell you that Robin Van Persie's decision to move to Old Trafford rather than Manchester City was a major reason for the title coming back to Manchester United last season.

Van Persie's goals were critical and United managed to score 20 goals more than City over the course of the Premier League season and that definitely made the difference between the teams and is a real reason for such a gap at the end of the season between the two top sides.

Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez have both left Manchester City over the last year, while they have signed Stevan Jovetic and Alvaro Negredo have been brought in to help the team get back to scoring ways, but it may be most critical for them to keep Sergio Aguero fit.

Aguero started 22 games last season and was a substitute for a further 8 games, while scoring 12 goals for City, but he had been suffering with a knock during the course of the year and he has the goalscoring knack that could make a big difference in the title race this time around.

I also think City will be boosted by the more attacking mentality that Manuel Pellegrini will employ compared with Roberto Mancini- with the talent they have in forward positions, I think they will score a fair few more than the 66 goals they managed last season and may just make the difference in bridging the 11 point gap between themselves and United.


Arsenal fans booing ridiculous: It is very much a feature of the new world that instance success is all that fans want to see and social networking makes it easier for everyone to voice their opinions.

While reading Twitter is down to each individual, Arsenal fans have a tendency to bring their negative vibes to the Emirates Stadium. It isn't the first time the team have been booed off at home, but that isn't the only reason I find it quite ridiculous.

They boo their OWN players when they may be under-performing... Did anyone else find it quite ironic the cheers and claps Emmanuel Eboue got during a pre-season friendly against Galatasaray, yet this was the same player they would ridicule and boo while he played FOR Arsenal.

Theo Walcott has received the same 'adulation' during his poor runs of form, and it just feels ridiculous that one game into a season they are already on the players backs. Granted there are frustrations in what has been a quiet summer on the transfer front, and the result against Villa was a poor one, but it seems to be a far quicker negative reaction in this stadium than any other.

I don't know whether that is simply down to the fact that the new stadium has only been built in the last few years and the increased attendance from the Highbury days has allowed more 'Soccer Am' watching fans turn up, but the booing comes far too quickly at that stadium.


Promoted sides all lose but some positive signs: I said above that it is too quick to make snap judgements after one game of the season, but I do think all three promoted sides will take some positives from their opening Premier League game.

Cardiff City struggled at West Ham United, but Upton Park is one of the tougher places to play in the Premier League and I think the team will be looking to their home form to provide the real foundation for survival. They will certainly feel better now that the tension of the first game is out of the way, although the next game against Manchester City may give them another rude awakening of the challenges that lie ahead.

While Cardiff have fewer positives, both Crystal Palace and Hull City will feel they showed enough to think they can snare some points this season. Hull were outclassed for the first half at Chelsea, but the second half performance suggests they have made some astute signings, particularly Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore from Tottenham Hotspur.

Steve Bruce has experience and I think Hull City will surprise some if they take their second half performance on. Crystal Palace also played well in their game against Spurs, although I do wonder if they have enough goals in the side to survive in the top flight.

Over the last twenty years, all three promoted sides being immediately relegated is almost unheard of and even two of the sides going down would be a surprise. With that in mind, and with the performances on the opening weekend, all three promoted clubs will still have a real belief in what they are trying to achieve this season.


Wigan and the two relegated clubs won't have an easy ride in the Championship: When all three relegated clubs from the Premier League made winning starts in their opening game in the Championship, the general feeling was that all three would have a strong shout for promotion.

The one that most were excited about were Wigan after they won 0-4 at Barnsley, but one point from their next two games shows how tough the Championship is- I wasn't convinced by the appointment of Owen Coyle who had to be sacked by Bolton Wanderers last season as he struggled to make the adjustment to the Championship.

All 3 of the relegated sides are no longer the 'underdog', but a team with a target on their back as others will raise their game against opponents that were Premier League clubs up until May. Wigan have the additional pressure of playing in Europe and being the FA Cup holders which makes them a bigger scalp, although Queens Park Rangers financial clout puts a huge target on them too.

Being immediately promoted following relegation is not an easy task in a competitive Division like this one and all three will have a long, tough season ahead with a lots of ups and downs to reach their goal.


Spurs without Bale could still be a top four club: I have been impressed with the way Tottenham Hotspur have invested in the squad with the imminent departure of Gareth Bale to Real Madrid- they are getting a lot of money for their Welsh winger, but there does seem to be more of a feel of a team being put together and a good one at that.

The latest news that Willian may not be moving to White Hart Lane is a blow to what had looked a very strong summer of business, but I like the signings they have made and there is every chance they could be a top four club even in the absence of his talisman.

The big question may be who Arsenal sign to strengthen their squad to decide which of the North London teams finish in the final coveted Champions League place, but at the moment, players like Roberto Soldado and Paulinho can make a difference for Spurs.

Spurs do look a little short in defensive areas, so staying healthy will be key to their chances of negotiating what is a tough nine months of football, but there are some really positive signs. Andre Villas-Boas has to find the right blend at White Hart Lane where Spurs dropped too many points against teams they would be expecting to beat as they certainly look capable of picking up plenty on their travels and I like the business being done in this part of North London.

Midweek Football Picks 2013/14 (August 20-22)

With the Premier League and La Liga back in action last weekend, the attention will turn to the final round of Champions League qualifiers which will have their first legs played this week.

Later on this week I will put up a short review of the weekend football that is in the books and that will likely go up with the upcoming picks from the next weekend games.

On this post, I will put up the picks from the games to be played across Europe on Tuesday through to Thursday.


Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic Pick: Only someone telling porkies would say they know all about Shakhter Karagandy, unless of course you come from Kazakhstan, but that isn't the case for me. I have been impressed with their win over BATE Borisov in the first of the qualifying rounds, especially as we saw how decent BATE are in their wins over Bayern Munich and Lille last year in the Group Stage.

While Shakhter Karagandy won the match against BATE, it was said that they had to ride their luck as the latter had a lot of chances to score the goal that would have turned that tie around particularly when they visited Kazakhstan.

It is a trip into the unknown for Celtic who will think anything other than competing in the Group Stage in the coming months is a failure- with Rangers demoted from the Scottish top flight, Celtic's biggest challenges come from the Champions League and being knocked out before the Group Stage will certainly remove some of the excitement the fans would be feeling in the early part of the new season.

Celtic have to play their third away qualifier on an artificial surface and had a lot of complaints in the last round at Elfsborg when playing on a similar pitch as the one they will see on Tuesday. The loss of Gary Hooper has taken away some of the goal threat Celtic have and they are yet to bring in his replacement.

Neil Lennon may also just want his side to get into a position to win this game at Celtic Park next week and to get out of Kazakhstan with an injury-free squad and a chance to win the tie at home. It's tough to know what to really expect from Shakhter Karagandy, but Celtic look a little short against a side from an improving nation and I can see the home tie avoiding defeat.


Lyon v Real Sociedad Pick: Out of the two teams, Lyon have the name that a lot of fans would recognise, especially at the Champions League level, but they missed out last year and have to negotiate this tough tie to make it back to the Group Stage this time around.

It is a tough tie to read as both teams will have the belief that they can come through over two legs- Lyon have the more experience at European level and won 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League last season; Real Sociedad haven't played in Europe since 2004 when they reached the last 16 of the Champions League, but they are an improved team and any team that finishes 4th in La Liga has to be respected.

This has all the makings of a tie that could go into extra time and possibly even need penalties next week in Spain. Home advantage should be key in both legs and Lyon have been strong here over the years, even if they are not of the same quality of teams that reached Quarter Finals in this competition and beat some of the biggest names in European football.

Real Sociedad can't be underestimated having won games at the teams that finished 3rd, 5th and 6th in Spain last season, but I just give the edge to the French side to have a lead going to Spain next week.


PSV Eindhoven v AC Milan Pick: A tie between two former winners of the European Cup is certainly the one that has interested most fans around Europe and it is incredibly tough to separate them in this first leg, although AC Milan are the favourites to move through to the Group Stage.

PSV Eindhoven haven't played in the Champions League in a few seasons but will remember how close they came to upsetting AC Milan in the 2005 Semi Final, although they are now a young team. They should be confident having won all 5 games they have played so far this season, but the lack of experience may pose problems, while PSV were knocked out early in the Europa League last season, albeit after beating Napoli of Italy twice in the Group Stage.

On the other hand, Milan certainly have more experience after reaching the last 16 of this competition last season, but they have yet to play a competitive game this season and that may pose problems. After struggling away from home in the Champions League for a few seasons, Milan won 2 of their 4 away games last season and it was actually their away form that helped them out of the Group Stage.

I am sure Milan would be happy to leave Eindhoven with a draw as that would set them up to complete the tie at the San Siro next week, but there is some talent in the former 7 time European Cup winners squad and they may just have a little bit more in hand at the end of this one.

Milan will have to ride out what will be an early storm as PSV's youthful exuberance will push for an early goal to take advantage of any rustiness that may be in the away squad. If Milan can ride that period out, they may just have enough up front to win this one and have a big advantage to take back to Italy next week.


Dinamo Zagreb v Austria Vienna Pick: Dinamo Zagreb have fought through the qualifiers to reach the Group Stage of the Champions League in each of the last two seasons and are once again just one tie from making it back to that lucrative round.

While the side have struggled when they have got into the Groups, losing 11 of 12 and earning just 1 point from a possible 36, Dinamo Zagreb have proved very capable in the qualifying rounds. Dinamo have won 9 straight qualifiers in the Champions League and they have won 8 in a row at this stage at home.

That experience should give them a chance to take a lead to Austria next week as they take on perhaps the most famous name from that country, Austria Vienna. The latter have never reached the Group Stage of the Champions League and they struggled through the last round with a 1-0 aggregate win against FH from the Faroes Islands.

Austria Vienna's Croatian manager may give them some insider knowledge, but Dinamo's experience and know how to win these qualifiers should give them the edge in this home tie.


Fenerbache v Arsenal Pick: Both Fenerbache and Arsenal are coming into this important tie off the back of disappointing defeats in their respective domestic Leagues so it will be interesting how they have recovered mentally from those losses.

Both teams had leads, but both saw those overturned by opponents they would have been expected to beat. Fenerbache also have a ban from European football hanging over their heads and won't know if they can actually compete in the competition until after this tie is concluded.

These little issues makes it a tougher game to get a grip of, but I do think Fenerbache look a touch under-rated in their home stadium. Everyone knows how difficult it is to come to Turkey to take on their teams because of the loud support they receive from the stands, although Arsenal have plenty of experience to fall back on.

Arsenal have also won all of their qualifying games for the Champions League in recent years and that experience, as well as a 2-5 win in this stadium a few seasons ago, will give them belief that they can win here.

However, there just seems to be a little too many negatives in the Arsenal camp at the moment and while I believe they will come through this tie, I do think a small interest in Fenerbache having a lead to take to London is the call at the prices.


Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: The Aston Villa fans travelling to Stamford Bridge will be hoping the team shows a lot more resiliency than they have in recent 7-1 and 8-0 losses at this ground, but the performance on Saturday at the Emirates Stadium will have given them confidence.

The pace in forward positions mean Aston Villa are likely to be a dangerous counter-attacking side all season, especially away from home where they can sit back and try and spring on teams. That won't be easy if Chelsea play in the same manner as they did in the first half against Hull City on Sunday afternoon.

Jose Mourinho's second era as manager of Chelsea got off to the perfect start with a couple of early goals and completely dominating Hull in the opening half, but the game settled in the second half and this Chelsea side will still give their opponents some opportunity.

Without the protection that his former Chelsea had, the lack of pace in John Terry is a little more exposed and I do anticipate Villa causing some problems. However, anything less than a home win would be a surprise although I am expecting a closer game than we saw last season.

I do anticipate Villa getting a couple of chances to trouble Petr Cech and I think both teams will score in this one, although I will keep my interest to a minimum simply because of the way Mourinho can set up his team once they have a lead.


Swansea v Petrolul Ploiesti Pick: This is clearly a competition that Michael Laudrup wants to take seriously for Swansea this season and I am also expecting a reaction from the home side after their 1-4 loss to Manchester United on the opening day.

While United were ruthless in front of goal, I think it would be fair to say that the scoreline did Swansea a disservice considering the pattern of the game. They are playing a confident team from Romania that has made a strong start to the season, but Swansea are going to be a stronger team than Petrolul Ploiesti are used to play on a regular basis.

I expect Laudrup will use his European managerial experience to make sure his team know that they cannot afford to allow an away goal and I expect the focus will be to keep a clean sheet. With the likes of Michu and Wilfried Bony in the line up, Swansea will expect to score and I think they will have the advantage for the return leg in seven days time.


MY PICKS: Shakhter Karagandy + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lyon @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
AC Milan @ 2.70 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Dinamo Zagreb @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Fenerbache @ 2.90 William Hill (1 Unit)
Chelsea-Aston Villa Both to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Swansea Win to Nil @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


August Update: 5-4, + 4.60 Units (15 Units Staked, + 30.67% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 17th)

There was a little bit of strange news yesterday as Maria Sharapova decided to part company with Jimmy Connors after just one match together- I am not entirely sure what the reason behind that was, perhaps the latter was a little too intense for Sharapova, but it does mean her preparation for the US Open is going to be hindered.

Serena Wiliams is clearly the favourite to win the women's event at Flushing Meadows and this has just strengthened her position to do so in my opinion as there are big doubts about almost every one of her rivals.


It was a good day for the picks after that terrible start to the week, although surprisingly both outright picks were knocked out in the Quartet Finals. Over the course of 2013, I have barely hit any of my outright choices, but have come close on a consistent basis with a few points here and there making the difference.

However, a strong end to this week should provide a welcome boost after a tough month or so.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v John Isner: This is a big chance for Juan Martin Del Potro to finally break his Masters duck and win one of these 1000 events, especially with the top two players out of the tournament although Rafael Nadal is still in the event.

The match up against John Isner is one that Del Potro doesn't seem to mind having won all four previous matches between the two including in the Final at Washington last month. Being his size, Del Potro is able to return the big kick serve that Isner has with some real effect and he showed his effectiveness by breaking Isner four times in their last match.

Del Potro should be able to look after his serve for the most part, although he needs to keep his concentration and not drop serve with some poor play as he has earlier this week in his three matches.

As long as Del Potro takes the chances that come his way, which won't be frequent, he should find a way to cover this spread.


Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Roger Federer played about as good as at any point that I have seen him this season, but he was still not good enough to hold on to the coat-tails of a flying Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard had to recover from dropping the first set, but he played very well and wore down Federer.

I have no doubt that this all feels very special to Nadal- people were wondering whether he could play on the hard courts at all, and I don't think anyone would have expected him to not just play in back to back Masters tournaments on this surface, but also have a real chance of winning both.

I wasn't sure if Nadal would have enough time to close Novak Djokovic in the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings this season, but this form suggests he will finish in that position barring a complete drop off in performances.

This match against Tomas Berdych has been good to Nadal ever since their infamous match in Madrid in 2006, winning 14 matches in a row against the Czech player in that time. Nadal puts enough pressure on Berdych's serve simply with the way he plays every point like it is the last he will play and I expect Nadal to find a break more in each set to win the match.

Berdych is in good form after his win over Andy Murray and he hasn't dropped a set this week, but Nadal is playing at a phenomenal level at the moment and I expect the Spaniard to be too good.


Na Li + 5.5 games v Serena Williams: This spread looks a touch high considering how hard Na Li plays Serena Williams and that is why I think it is worth backing.

I know that Serena Williams is capable of obliterating anyone she plays on the Tour on any given day, but Li has a strong mentality and I don't think she is overawed when coming up against the World Number 1.

That strong personality means Li can hit out and force Williams to move and there aren't many players that have that ability. Her serve is also a little under-rated, especially when on form, and she has big enough groundstrokes to win some of the rallies.

I am not sure she has enough consistency in the locker to actually win the Semi Final, but Li is capable of taking at least one of the sets to a tie-break and definitely capable of keeping this close and competitive at least. Serena Williams has also played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks and could be a touch fatigued, although Li will have to play hard and consistently if she is to keep this as close as I think it will be.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li + 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 17-16, + 2.32 Units (65 Units Staked, + 3.57% Yield)

Weekend Football 2013 (August 17-19)

The start of the Premier League is finally upon us, although I don't feel good to notice that only five of the ten League games to open this weekend will actually be kicking off at 3pm- that alone does back up the belief of those that think we should no longer have the block on showing live games at that time as the fans are the ones who suffer with the awkward times of matches.

It is a bit of joke that a team like Newcastle United will have to play at Tottenham Hotspur in a noon kick off later on this season as that is absolutely scandalous for the fans that will be travelling down to London for the game. What can you do though? The TV companies have pumped in so much money into the game that they have a right to do what they want now and the fans, as usual, are only the last concern.


I wrote a small piece about Manchester United before the Community Shield last week and that can be read here. Below I have a few thoughts about who I believe will win the major honours in the Premier League in the coming season and who may just have some sobering thoughts come May.


Champions: The transfer window this summer has been fairly quiet, but the team that has made the most moves is Manchester City as they look to grab the Premier League title back off of Manchester United. The only other real contender when it comes to winning the title is Chelsea and it would be a huge surprise if any other team is lifting the title in May.

It is all change when it comes to the manager's office at all three clubs and the arrival of Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge certainly has given the fans and the layers the belief that Chelsea are the team to beat. If they do sign Wayne Rooney before September 2, those chances will definitely increase, while the current squad were flying at the end of last season under Rafa Benitez.

However, I do think Manchester City have the strongest squad and will be the team that comes out on top next May. It was clear that a lot of the City fans really appreciated what Roberto Mancini did for the club, but his removal is a big positive for them as far as I am concerned as he was too negative and didn't bring a good vibe to the team with constant criticisms.

The Italian was extremely fortunate to win the title in 2012, which owed a lot more to Manchester United's collapse and an extremely one in a million recovery on the final day. His performances in the Champions League showed that he was out of his depth at the very top level and the lack of a title challenge would have infuriated the owners of the club. Manuel Pellegrini is a strong manager and the signings he has made have definitely improved City to a point where they should finish top of the Premier League.

Of course, I would dearly love Manchester United to be that team that lifts the title in May, but the absence of Sir Alex Ferguson will mean dropping points when perhaps the former manager would have galvanised the team. He has certainly got the best out of a squad that shouldn't really be finishing 11 points clear of what Manchester City have and I think there were a few games last season where United recovered to win in situations that are unlikely to be repeated.

Unless a couple of big name players are signed, I don't think this squad is capable of reaching the heights of last season and even finishing in the top two may end up beyond them. David Moyes is worthy of receiving the support from the stands, but he has an extremely tough start to negotiate which could leave United playing catch up on City and Chelsea and I do feel it might just be a tougher season than some fans may believe.


Final Champions League Spot: After trying to unsuccessfully buy a few big name players, Arsenal's biggest hope may be that Tottenham Hotspur sell Gareth Bale if they are to once again finish above their North London rivals.

The return of Jack Wilshire will boost Arsenal for the coming season, but they have missed out on Gonzalo Higuain and are unlikely to prize Luis Suarez from Liverpool which means virtually the same squad will begin this season that ended the last in impressive fashion. However, their rivals Tottenham for the final Champions League spot have strengthened hugely, especially if they can keep hold of Bale for one more season at least.

That is looking a little more likely at the moment, although there is still plenty of time before the close of the transfer window, but if Spurs hold on to the Welshman, it would make the signings of Roberto Soldado and Paulinho look very good and the side stronger than last season. I expect Soldado to get goals in the Premier League if the service is there, while Paulinho looked good in the Confederations Cup for Brazil although both will need to settle quickly in a new League.

I still see holes in the Spurs first eleven which will prevent them challenging for the title and they do still rely too much on the counter attack which makes them less effective at White Hart Lane- if Spurs can be a little more ruthless at home this season, they could certainly pip Arsenal for a top four place behind the big three teams.


Relegation: The first of the teams that look set to be relegated into the Championship next season is last season's Play Off Winners, Crystal Palace. I was impressed with Ian Holloway in his last stint in the Premier League as manager of Blackpool, so he has form in getting the best out of a squad that looks a little short of quality.

Even with that in mind, this Palace team are missing two key players from their promotion push from last season- Glenn Murray suffered a serious injury at the back end of last season which could see him miss the whole season after scoring 30 goals last season, while Wilfried Zaha has moved to Manchester United.

Palace haven't strengthened significantly and were poor in the second half of last season and I can't see them having enough to stay in the Premier League as I just don't believe there are three worse teams than the Eagles.

All three of the promoted teams have questions about their ability to survive at this level, but all three getting relegated would be going against the trends over the last twenty years. Even two teams being relegated that were promoted the season before is not that common, but Hull City are another that don't look to have the necessary quality to survive in the top flight.

Steve Bruce is still strengthening the side so my opinion could change in the coming weeks and the signing of Tom Huddlestone is not a bad one, but do the newly named Tigers have enough up front at this level? I would say no and while they had a solid defence in the Championship, it is a different story when it comes to the Premier League.

A lot of people would be worrying about the likes of Sunderland, Stoke City, and perhaps Fulham as a potential established Premier League team that may fall through the cracks. One I would worry about is West Brom who made a really fast start last season before tailing off a little even with a top half finish under their belt.

The loss of Romelu Lukaku means they may just have a problem up front, even after signing Matej Vydra who performed so well on loan at Watford in the Championship last season. The Albion would have finished 17th in the Premier League if we took results from their last 18 League games played.

West Brom do have the fixtures to make a fast start to this season as they did last year, but failure to do so could be the beginning of a long, tough season for the fans and management alike.


I guess we will all know more about how these short predictions will pan out in nine months time, but the Premier League does look set to have a fascinating season ahead with a lot of intrigue. I am sure most fans are just looking forward to the big kick off this weekend now and getting back to the grounds to support their teams.


It ended up being a profitable season last year for the picks, but I will look for an improvement in what is a notoriously difficult sport to make profit on over a nine month period. Another profitable season would be welcome as the season kicks off, although I do have for a slightly higher yield when it is all said and done.


Liverpool v Stoke City: This is the opening game of the Premier League season as Liverpool take on Stoke City at Anfield. It has been a turbulent summer at Anfield as Luis Suarez tried to push through a transfer away from the club, while a big name signing has not come in despite some of the remnants of Kenny Dalglish's poor reign at the club being moved on.

Liverpool will be looking to make a more concerted effort to get into the top four in Brendan Rodgers second season in charge of the club, but they do look a little short of quality in a couple of areas to think they can do that. However, taking on Stoke City, who are under the new management of Mark Hughes, should give the home side the perfect opportunity to kick off this new season with a positive start.

I expect Stoke to be a little more adventurous at times this season, but it may not be at Anfield that we see that happening. Even in the absence of Suarez, I expect Liverpool to be on the front foot in this one and I do think they will create chances. Daniel Sturridge played well in Suarez' absence at the back end of last season and he will need to be at his sharpest if Liverpool are to win this game.

The home side did have plenty of clean sheet last season and they are playing a side that scored the second fewest away goals last season. 3 of the last 5 games at Anfield between Liverpool and Stoke City have ended in goalless draws, but I am going to back the home side to win this one with a clean sheet to boot.


West Ham United v Cardiff City: West Ham United have got a lot to look forward to with a move into the Olympic Stadium in the coming years, but the key for the Hammers is to make sure they are still a Premier League club when that comes about.

Sam Allardyce is certainly one of the best names to have in charge when you want to build a team and work ethic to keep a side afloat and he is well versed in keeping teams ticking along in the Premier League. He is a vastly under-rated manager for what he brings to the table and I expect him to help West Ham United to another season in the Premier League.

This is the kind of game that Allardyce would have circled as must win games if they are to survive in the Premier League and I do think West Ham will be too good for a Cardiff City side that won the Championship last season.

Cardiff might be given a rude awakening as they face a side they met in the Championship just two seasons ago, but one that has brought in plenty of Premier League class since being promoted to this League. West Ham had a strong record at home against teams that finished below them in the table and they have the size and power to beat Cardiff at their own game and the home side look worth backing in this one.


Swansea v Manchester United: David Moyes will begin his competitive era as manager of Manchester United on Saturday afternoon, but he could have wished for a far easier match than having to go to Swansea.

The home side have the belief in their own game to keep hold of the ball for long periods and that could make all the difference in the match, especially considering they have already played two competitive games this season in the Europa League.

Swansea were also strong enough to hold all of the top three to draws last season and while I don't think they are good enough to win the game, Michael Laudrup will have his team ready to cause the Champions of England plenty of problems.

The long periods of possession that Swansea will likely enjoy in this game will test Manchester United and I can certainly see the home side being good enough to avoid defeat. However, I believe Robin Van Persie always offers a team the chance to grab a goal from nothing and I do think the David Moyes era at Manchester United will truly begin with a point here.


Bournemouth v Wigan Athletic: At the end of this season, I would expect Wigan Athletic to finish in the top half of the table and Bournemouth to finish in the bottom half and I do think the Latics will be too strong for them at Dean Court in this Championship clash.

While teams are likely to sit back and defend against Wigan when they travel to the DW Stadium, I do think the side will find it easier on their travels as the onus will be on the home side to get on the front foot and look to win the game.

With the likes of Shaun Maloney and Callum McManaman in the ranks, Wigan should be very effective on the counter attack and they will have good recent memories of this ground where they won 0-1 on the way to winning the FA Cup last season.

Bournemouth were given a rude awakening as to the strength of the Championship when beaten 6-1 at Watford last weekend. They will be stronger at home, but I do think Wigan can make it two wins out of two away from home in the Division with more quality in their squad than Bournemouth, although this may be a close game that ends 0-1.


Middlesbrough v Blackpool: Middlesbrough lost both home games to open this season, one of those in the Capital One Cup, but on both occasions they were leading those games. They then followed that up with a 0-1 win at Charlton Athletic last weekend which has eased some of the pressure on Tony Mowbray.

They should be a little too strong for a Blackpool team that may have won both League games they have played, but were incredibly fortunate last weekend when they scored an injury time winner against Barnsley, even though Blackpool failed to register one shot on target.

The absence of Tom Ince and the number of injuries in the squad has restricted what Paul Ince can do in this game and Middlesbrough should be a little too strong for them in this one. Middlesbrough were a very strong home team last season, and they should be able to follow the win at the Valley with another three points on Saturday.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur: The Gareth Bale sage is still rumbling along at White Hart Lane and I can't help think that Tottenham Hotspur need to keep hold of the Welshman if they are to finish in the top four this season.

Bale will be absent on Sunday afternoon for the first game of the season, but Spurs should still be a little too strong for Crystal Palace, a team that haven't invested in the squad in the way that Ian Holloway would have liked in the summer. The injury to Glenn Murray and Wilfried Zaha moving to Manchester United means Palace will have to do without their two best players from last season, while their form in the second half of the season was poor to say the least.

I do think this is going to be a tough season for Palace, but Holloway is likely to send out his team with an attacking intent, although that could leave them very open at the back. Spurs need their new signings to settle quickly as they bid to finally finish above Arsenal in the League and secure one of the Champions League berths.

I like the signing of Roberto Soldado and I think he will score goals in this League if he is given the right service. This won't be an easy match for Tottenham but the Spaniard may prove to be the difference as a proven goalscorer in a top competition like La Liga and he may just get off the mark and help his new side leave Selhurst Park with the three points.


Chelsea v Hull City: The media have been having a great time now that Jose Mourinho has returned to English football and he will once again look for Chelsea to build a strong home record on which to put together the foundations of a title challenge.

Chelsea haven't made too much of an investment in the squad this summer, but their end to last season shows that they do have plenty of quality in the side, while Eden Hazard and Oscar have a season in English football under their belt.

I expect the home side to be too strong for a Hull City team that have made some interesting signings in the last week- the Tigers will want to show that they are not willing to lie down for any team in the League, but this is one of the tougher grounds they will visit this season.

With the amount of attacking talent in the Chelsea team, I would be surprised if they don't open the season with a fairly comfortable win although the layers all feel the same. Instead, I would recommed the Blues getting a few goals in the bank and scoring at least three goals in the game, which has been priced up a little short of odds against.


Manchester City v Newcastle United: Manchester City will begin a new era as Manuel Pellegrini takes over from Roberto Mancini as manager of the club and they look to have brought in some very good talent that should lead to a sustained challenge to win the Premier League title.

I also think Pellegrini will give City the confidence to perform in the Champions League and they do have enough talent in the squad to see off Newcastle United in their first match of the season.

It was another strange summer at St James' Park with the return of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football and Alan Pardew will certainly feel the pressure if Newcastle make a poor start to this season. They really struggled away from home last season and conceded far too many goals when it came to playing the sides in the top four.

City do look tougher than Newcastle and stronger in all the key areas- they have also dominated Newcastle in recent games between the two teams and it would be a surprise if they don't win this fairly comfortably.

Backing City to win this one by a couple of goals looks the call in the final game of the opening weekend of the Premier League.


MY PICKS: Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Swansea-Manchester United Draw @ 3.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wigan Athletic @ 2.10 Coral (1 Unit)
Middlesbrough @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August Update: 1-0, + 1.90 Units (2 Units Staked, + 95% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)