The draws have been released from the tournaments taking place at Hamburg and at Atlanta this week as the ATP rolls on.
The tournament in Atlanta represents the start of the American Summer hard court swing, while Hamburg is an important 500 event for the clay courters.
ATP Atlanta
Atlanta will welcome back the two finalists from last season, Mardy Fish and John Isner, as the top two seeds in a 28 man draw.
Overall, I have to be honest in saying it is not the best set of players that have got together for this tournament, and that is highlighted by the fact that the likes of Somdev Devvarman and Alex Bogomolov Jr are actually seeded.
Mardy Fish is the reigning Champion here and he looks in a very strong position to get back to the Final at the very least. Fish was disappointed in being beaten in both Rubbers in the Davis Cup by the Spanish team, but he has had over a week to recharge his batteries for this event.
The top American has really been in decent nick since he lost weight and found renewed focus on his tennis. He is given a bye into the 2nd Round so is likely not due in action until Wednesday, giving him further rest from the Davis Cup exploits, and will only need to win 3 matches to reach the Final for a 2nd year in succession.
And those 3 matches should not be that taxing if Fish is indeed motivated for this tournament. It is likely that he would need to beat Nicolas Mahut, while the likes of Devvarman or Ryan Sweeting would be a Quarter Final opponent.
The biggest danger may come from Xavier Malisse in the Semi Finals, although the Belgian is in a tough looking section with the dangers of Lleyton Hewitt and Grigor Dimitrov lurking.
With winning records against a lot of the players in this section, I see no reason to doubt Mardy Fish being in contention at the end of the week.
It would also not be a huge surprise if John Isner is once again the opponent for Fish on Sunday. Isner will get a lot of local support being a graduate of the University of Georgia but does have a tough looking 2nd Round match against either James Blake or Ernests Gulbis while it is also likely that the dangerous Kevin Anderson or Gilles Muller could wait in the Semi Finals.
Both Isner and Fish have been priced at very similar prices, and I just feel the defending Champion has the easier route and is the better option to take.
ATP Hamburg
The tournament in Germany this week is actually an ATP 500 Event and the last major clay court tournament of the season. That doesn't mean you can expect to see many of the top players in action, most of those getting ready for the hard court swing in North America and therefore missing tournaments until August.
The only top 10 player in action this week is Gael Monfils but I would very much avoid backing this player to win tournaments with the amount of inconsistency he throws around.
Much like Stuttgart last week, a lot of question marks can be placed over the seeded players this week and the prices show that with 8-1 being the starting price of Monfils and Gilles Simon as the favourites.
I can look at almost every seeded player in this draw and have some reservations about their ability to win the tournament. Automatically I ruled out the likes of Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Verdasco, Jurgen Melzer, Fabio Fognini, Florian Mayer and Janko Tipsarevic all for reasons of lack of form, ability on the surface and mental ability to win 5-6 matches for a tournament.
Nicolas Almagro intrigued me but he faces Potito Starace in the next round before a seeded match with Albert Montanes, both players that have strong head to head records against him.
One name who did interest me here at the prices is the big Croatian Marin Cilic- Cilic is placed in the top half of the draw, arguably the easier half, and may just make a mockery of the 33-1 being offered on him.
There are again doubts surrounding Cilic, like many others. He has been out of form and has been struggling with a couple of niggles while the serve has been letting him down far too much considering his size and natural talent.
However, his better performances have come on the clay courts and he has reached 2 Quarter Finals on the surface this season, at Munich and at Rome.
The draw has also been kinder to Cilic than many others- he is likely to face Ivan Dodig in the 2nd Round before being seeded to meet Juan Ignacio Chela. Chela has had a solid season, but he is not the same player as a few years ago and I would fancy Cilic to get the job done, even if it had to go 3 sets.
The Quarter Final could see Cilic face Mikhail Youzhny or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but both of those players are in a tough section and instead there could be a surprise in seeing Carlos Berlocq come through, a player Cilic beat in Rome.
I wouldn't want anyone reading this to get me wrong- there are plenty of question marks surrounding Cilic himself, but 33-1 looks far too big in a field where many others have just as many issues surrounding their game and might just give us a run for our money.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS
Mardy Fish @ 3.75 Stan James (2 Units E/W)
Marin Cilic @ 34.0 Stan James (0.5 Units E/W)
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Sunday, 17 July 2011
Tennis Profit/Loss Update July 11th-17th
It was a terribly disappointing week which was wrapped up with the Nicolas Almagro defeat in the Semi Final to David Ferrer yesterday. With both Finals at Stuttgart and Bastad looking tough to call, I am wrapping up the weeks action where there was more loss than at anytime this season.
I was let down by some terrible collapses from players in large winning positions and it could have been a different story otherwise. Unfortunately, you do get these ups and downs during the tennis season so sometimes you just have to take your medicine.
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 9.85 Units (- 5.85 Units Daily Picks, - 4 Units Outright Picks)
OVERALL PROFIT/LOSS: + 38.76 Units
I was let down by some terrible collapses from players in large winning positions and it could have been a different story otherwise. Unfortunately, you do get these ups and downs during the tennis season so sometimes you just have to take your medicine.
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 9.85 Units (- 5.85 Units Daily Picks, - 4 Units Outright Picks)
OVERALL PROFIT/LOSS: + 38.76 Units
Saturday, 16 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 16th
I was so angry with the way things had gone for me the day before yesterday that I could not bring myself to make more picks until I felt I was back on the straight and narrow.
The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.
Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.
David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.
The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.
Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.
Now on to the Semi Final Picks:
Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.
Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.
Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.
Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.
MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: A very disappointing - 8.61 Units
The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.
Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.
David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.
The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.
Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.
Now on to the Semi Final Picks:
Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.
Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.
Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.
Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.
MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: A very disappointing - 8.61 Units
Thursday, 14 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 14th
It was a much better day for me yesterday with Juan Monaco and Potito Starace both winning their matches, albeit making life much tougher for themselves than was likely required.
It has been tough picking in matches this week as a lot of the favourites have struggled. For example, in Stuttgart 6 of the 8 seeds fell before the 2nd Round and there are some big priced winners in that tournament.
That's not to say it is easy to pick these matches- some of the results could easily have gone another way if 1 or 2 points had landed differently, but the week has shown how tough it can be in the World of tennis to consistently pick winners.
I had felt my luck was all but out earlier in the week as players seemed to be crumbling without much notice in matches; the worst example was Igor Andreev losing a 3-0 lead in the final set against Diego Junqueira.
It didn't help my mood much to notice Junqueira won just 1 game against Robin Soderling tonight. That result just makes me wonder what Andreev was playing at in his match to blow a lead as badly as he did.
Now is not the time to complain though, not while one of my outright picks of the week is still alive and the loss from earlier in the week has been reduced somewhat.
On to the Days Picks:
Double- Juan Monaco vs Blaz Kavcic and Filippo Volandri vs Andreas Haider-Maurer: Juan Monaco had to dig deep to get through his match with Carlos Berlocq yesterday, but I am going to keep faith with the Argentine in a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.
Blaz Kavcic has not really had the wins on clay courts previously to suggest he can beat a player of Monaco's calibre, but he can up his level for short bursts.
If Monaco can stay with him while Kavcic is on a high level of play, he should be able to take advantage of his dips and win through.
Filippo Volandri is a clay courter, but has really struggled to maintain the form that saw him beat Roger Federer in Rome in 2007. However, he should hold the mental edge over Andreas Haider-Maurer since he has 2 wins over him, both in straight sets, on clay courts this season.
Haider-Maurer took advantage of a favourable draw against Mikhail Kukushkin, but this is a much stiffer test and one he has failed to pass twice. I dont expect the Austrian to make it third time lucky.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games vs Pere Riba-Madrid: I was a little concerned with David Ferrer's state of mind after all the mental efforts it took to lead Spain to a Davis Cup win over the USA on Sunday. He has also had to travel from Texas to Sweden, but the extra day of rest could be crucial to his ability in this match.
Pere Riba-Madrid has not had the same impact on the main tour as he has had on the Challenger circuit and I see Ferrer's consistency causing him problems during this match.
Ferrer is a player that will give it his all if he does take part in a tournament and I expect he will come through 6-4, 6-2.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Mikhail Youzhny was excellent in his comfortable win over Phillip Petzschner in the last Round and I expect he will come out on top against the classy Juan Carlos Ferrero here.
Ferrero usually reserves his best tennis for the clay, but a lack of matches could seriously undermine him against a tough opponent like Youzhny.
This will only be Ferrero's 7th match since the US Open last September and I just feel Youzhny can grind him down.
The Russian is 1-2 against Ferrero in the head to heads, but his sole win came in 4 sets at the French Open and I think he can remain the highest seed left in Stuttgart.
MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Filippo Volandri @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.61 Units
It has been tough picking in matches this week as a lot of the favourites have struggled. For example, in Stuttgart 6 of the 8 seeds fell before the 2nd Round and there are some big priced winners in that tournament.
That's not to say it is easy to pick these matches- some of the results could easily have gone another way if 1 or 2 points had landed differently, but the week has shown how tough it can be in the World of tennis to consistently pick winners.
I had felt my luck was all but out earlier in the week as players seemed to be crumbling without much notice in matches; the worst example was Igor Andreev losing a 3-0 lead in the final set against Diego Junqueira.
It didn't help my mood much to notice Junqueira won just 1 game against Robin Soderling tonight. That result just makes me wonder what Andreev was playing at in his match to blow a lead as badly as he did.
Now is not the time to complain though, not while one of my outright picks of the week is still alive and the loss from earlier in the week has been reduced somewhat.
On to the Days Picks:
Double- Juan Monaco vs Blaz Kavcic and Filippo Volandri vs Andreas Haider-Maurer: Juan Monaco had to dig deep to get through his match with Carlos Berlocq yesterday, but I am going to keep faith with the Argentine in a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.
Blaz Kavcic has not really had the wins on clay courts previously to suggest he can beat a player of Monaco's calibre, but he can up his level for short bursts.
If Monaco can stay with him while Kavcic is on a high level of play, he should be able to take advantage of his dips and win through.
Filippo Volandri is a clay courter, but has really struggled to maintain the form that saw him beat Roger Federer in Rome in 2007. However, he should hold the mental edge over Andreas Haider-Maurer since he has 2 wins over him, both in straight sets, on clay courts this season.
Haider-Maurer took advantage of a favourable draw against Mikhail Kukushkin, but this is a much stiffer test and one he has failed to pass twice. I dont expect the Austrian to make it third time lucky.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games vs Pere Riba-Madrid: I was a little concerned with David Ferrer's state of mind after all the mental efforts it took to lead Spain to a Davis Cup win over the USA on Sunday. He has also had to travel from Texas to Sweden, but the extra day of rest could be crucial to his ability in this match.
Pere Riba-Madrid has not had the same impact on the main tour as he has had on the Challenger circuit and I see Ferrer's consistency causing him problems during this match.
Ferrer is a player that will give it his all if he does take part in a tournament and I expect he will come through 6-4, 6-2.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Mikhail Youzhny was excellent in his comfortable win over Phillip Petzschner in the last Round and I expect he will come out on top against the classy Juan Carlos Ferrero here.
Ferrero usually reserves his best tennis for the clay, but a lack of matches could seriously undermine him against a tough opponent like Youzhny.
This will only be Ferrero's 7th match since the US Open last September and I just feel Youzhny can grind him down.
The Russian is 1-2 against Ferrero in the head to heads, but his sole win came in 4 sets at the French Open and I think he can remain the highest seed left in Stuttgart.
MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Filippo Volandri @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.61 Units
Wednesday, 13 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 13th
It was another poor day yesterday for the picks as the bad run stretches back 10 days now.
I will write more on the week's events so far tomorrow, but today I will just put up my one pick from tomorrow:
Double: Juan Monaco vs Carlos Berlocq and Potito Starace vs Jonathan Dasnieres de Veigy: Just a quick note why I am picking these two short priced favourties to win.
Juan Monaco comes in off a morale boosting 2 wins in the Davis Cup for Argentina and faces an opponent he has beaten on all 3 occasions they have played.
There is the danger of jet lag from travelling, but he was given an extra day to prepare and should be too strong.
Potito Starace already has a win here and I have already said previously how much he enjoys playing on clay courts. He faces an opponent that is not used to playing at this level and someone who beat a local hope in the 1st Round.
I expect Starace's experience will take him through.
MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Potito Starace @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 4.78 Units
I will write more on the week's events so far tomorrow, but today I will just put up my one pick from tomorrow:
Double: Juan Monaco vs Carlos Berlocq and Potito Starace vs Jonathan Dasnieres de Veigy: Just a quick note why I am picking these two short priced favourties to win.
Juan Monaco comes in off a morale boosting 2 wins in the Davis Cup for Argentina and faces an opponent he has beaten on all 3 occasions they have played.
There is the danger of jet lag from travelling, but he was given an extra day to prepare and should be too strong.
Potito Starace already has a win here and I have already said previously how much he enjoys playing on clay courts. He faces an opponent that is not used to playing at this level and someone who beat a local hope in the 1st Round.
I expect Starace's experience will take him through.
MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Potito Starace @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 4.78 Units
Tuesday, 12 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 12th
It was disappointing to see Gilles Simon lose out to Albert Montanes last night as that ended my outright interest in the Stuttgart tournament at the first hurdle and also saw the picks begin badly this week.
Hopefully, tomorrow brings a better reward so on to the Picks:
Double: Potito Starace vs Julian Reister and Igor Andreev vs Diego Junqueira: I am picking these two men as they have far more clay court experience, and play at a higher level on a consistent basis respectively.
Potito Starace's main body of good work comes on the clay courts and 85% of his wins in the last 4 seasons have been on clay courts. He has also won 74% of his matches on clay in that time and comes in off the back of Davis Cup success with Italy.
Reister has lost 10 of his last 11 matches on all surfaces, but does favour the clay. Unfortunately, the main tour looks a little too good for him at this time and he now plays a player that does the majority of his damage on this surface.
Igor Andreev has never really fulfilled the potential he clearly has, but the majority of his success remains on the clay courts. He might not have had to go through 3 Rounds of Qualifiers as his opponent has, and that is a slight concern as he has not played since the first week of Wimbledon.
In saying that, Diego Junqueira has not won on the main tour in 2 years and has been mainly playing on the Challenger tour. While he has grown up on the clay, I expect Andreev will be too strong.
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: This looks a mismatch on paper, but Nikolay Davydenko is not the player of 18 months ago and faces a young hungry German player here.
Davydenko has won in Munich already this season, but comes in to the match in poor form and will need to pick his game up early. However, Stebe has not played an opponent like Davydenko, a player that can out hustle and grind down the best of opponents.
I just think Davydenko will eventually be too consistent for the novice and pull away for a 2 set win.
Jeremy Chardy vs Tobias Kamke: I should have learnt my lesson in backing short priced French players after Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon have let me down in the last few days, but I am going to the well again, mainly because I want to oppose Kamke.
Kamke will have been travelling back from the United States after reaching a Semi Final on the grass of Newport so it could be an adjustment for him mentally in this game.
Add to these factors the issue of Kamke struggling on clay so far in his career, and the pendulum swings towards Chardy here.
Chardy himself has struggled a little bit on the slower surface in his last 2 seasons, but has previously found success on the clay courts.
As I said, I am not the biggest fan of short priced French players, but the odds are just tempting enough on this occasion.
MY PICKS: Potito Starace and Igor Andreev Double @ 1.82 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 1.61 Stan James (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units
Hopefully, tomorrow brings a better reward so on to the Picks:
Double: Potito Starace vs Julian Reister and Igor Andreev vs Diego Junqueira: I am picking these two men as they have far more clay court experience, and play at a higher level on a consistent basis respectively.
Potito Starace's main body of good work comes on the clay courts and 85% of his wins in the last 4 seasons have been on clay courts. He has also won 74% of his matches on clay in that time and comes in off the back of Davis Cup success with Italy.
Reister has lost 10 of his last 11 matches on all surfaces, but does favour the clay. Unfortunately, the main tour looks a little too good for him at this time and he now plays a player that does the majority of his damage on this surface.
Igor Andreev has never really fulfilled the potential he clearly has, but the majority of his success remains on the clay courts. He might not have had to go through 3 Rounds of Qualifiers as his opponent has, and that is a slight concern as he has not played since the first week of Wimbledon.
In saying that, Diego Junqueira has not won on the main tour in 2 years and has been mainly playing on the Challenger tour. While he has grown up on the clay, I expect Andreev will be too strong.
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: This looks a mismatch on paper, but Nikolay Davydenko is not the player of 18 months ago and faces a young hungry German player here.
Davydenko has won in Munich already this season, but comes in to the match in poor form and will need to pick his game up early. However, Stebe has not played an opponent like Davydenko, a player that can out hustle and grind down the best of opponents.
I just think Davydenko will eventually be too consistent for the novice and pull away for a 2 set win.
Jeremy Chardy vs Tobias Kamke: I should have learnt my lesson in backing short priced French players after Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon have let me down in the last few days, but I am going to the well again, mainly because I want to oppose Kamke.
Kamke will have been travelling back from the United States after reaching a Semi Final on the grass of Newport so it could be an adjustment for him mentally in this game.
Add to these factors the issue of Kamke struggling on clay so far in his career, and the pendulum swings towards Chardy here.
Chardy himself has struggled a little bit on the slower surface in his last 2 seasons, but has previously found success on the clay courts.
As I said, I am not the biggest fan of short priced French players, but the odds are just tempting enough on this occasion.
MY PICKS: Potito Starace and Igor Andreev Double @ 1.82 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 1.61 Stan James (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units
Monday, 11 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 11th
The first day of a new week are generally much quieter as the Qualifying matches are completed and there usually are only a couple of matches to pick from.
With Bastad being a 28 player main draw this season, it means there are even fewer matches scheduled on the opening day from the main draw- today we will only have Tommy Robredo vs Filippo Volandri.
Stuttgart is a bigger draw so we have a couple more matches taking place from that draw and it is from Germany that I will make my first pick of the week:
Gilles Simon vs Albert Montanes: This is a pick I will make even though I have taken Simon to win the tournament in the outright market as I feel the Frenchman is being slightly underrated to come through.
Simon has been in much stronger form than Montanes this season, with the latter looking like he might be slowing down against the better players on the tour.
That is not to say that Montanes should be underestimated, especially considering he is the defending Champion at the tournament this season. However, Montanes has not had the best clay court season so far this year and has already been beaten by Simon in straight sets on the surface.
Simon is a very consistent player and I think that will be the difference between the two players again. He has a 3-1 head to head record against Montanes and I think he will at least move on to the next Round with a win on Monday.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon to win @ 1.60 Pinnacle (2 Units)
With Bastad being a 28 player main draw this season, it means there are even fewer matches scheduled on the opening day from the main draw- today we will only have Tommy Robredo vs Filippo Volandri.
Stuttgart is a bigger draw so we have a couple more matches taking place from that draw and it is from Germany that I will make my first pick of the week:
Gilles Simon vs Albert Montanes: This is a pick I will make even though I have taken Simon to win the tournament in the outright market as I feel the Frenchman is being slightly underrated to come through.
Simon has been in much stronger form than Montanes this season, with the latter looking like he might be slowing down against the better players on the tour.
That is not to say that Montanes should be underestimated, especially considering he is the defending Champion at the tournament this season. However, Montanes has not had the best clay court season so far this year and has already been beaten by Simon in straight sets on the surface.
Simon is a very consistent player and I think that will be the difference between the two players again. He has a 3-1 head to head record against Montanes and I think he will at least move on to the next Round with a win on Monday.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon to win @ 1.60 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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