NFL Week 12 Picks 2014 (November 20-24)

Week 11 Thoughts

The AFC North continues to beat on the NFC South: These two Divisions have been paired up in the inter-Conference games this season and the fact that the every team in the AFC North has a winning record and every team in the NFC South has a losing one only highlights the fact that those teams in the AFC have dominated these games so far.

Last week the Cincinnati Bengals walked into the SuperDome and knocked off the New Orleans Saints meaning teams from the AFC North are now 8-1-1 against teams from the NFC South. The likes of the Baltimore Ravens actually have a losing record against AFC teams but are powering their push for the Play Offs by beating on the NFC South, while the Atlanta Falcons are only leading the South Division because they are unbeaten in Divisional play but lost every game other game.

I would never have expected this kind of record in the pre-season and it is a real surprise to see the New Orleans Saints losing to teams like Cleveland and Cincinnati, but I also think it has said a lot more about the NFC South and how poor it is than how good the AFC North may be.

Team with a losing record making the Play Offs: It has only been four seasons since the first ever team with a losing record made the NFL Play Offs, but talk about the NFC South leads me to the situation where that could be matched. It is ironic that the New Orleans Saints were beaten by the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks in the Play Offs in January 2011 as they are still the favourites to come out of the NFC South and may have a chance to avenge that loss this season, except as the team with the losing record.

With the 4-6 Atlanta Falcons leading the way, the chance of the NFC South having a Division winner with a sub 8-8 record has grown ever more likely- the team with the best schedule left is the Saints, but they haven't shown enough to think they will go 4-2 down the stretch and I would rule that out if they lose on Monday Night Football to the Baltimore Ravens.

It will see many writers re-visit the suggestion that the Play Offs should be re-seeded once they have been decided and that a Division winner should not have the right to host a Play Off game, although I still disagree with that sentiment. Winning the Division has to bring with it some benefit, even if it is the terrible NFC South this season and home advantage can be critical as the Seattle Seahawks showed in January 2011 despite finishing the season with a 7-9 record.

New Orleans have a very strong home field advantage (well they did before this season anyway) and they would feel they can beat anyone in the SuperDome which could make them a very dangerous opponent for a Wild Card team. But it doesn't take away from how bad things have been for teams in the NFC South this season that their Division winner is likely to have a losing record for the season.

Mark Sanchez is not good enough to start in the NFL: Those were essentially the headlines around the NFL following Philadelphia's crushing loss to the Green Bay Packers, but I don't buy them just yet.

There were a couple of terrible throws from Sanchez, particularly the Interception to Julius Peppers, but his Receivers also dropped a couple of passes they should have and he was perhaps a little flustered with a couple of overthrows after a fumble led to another Green Bay Touchdown.

It was always going to be a difficult test for Sanchez when Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he is and I think a lot of teams would struggle to keep up- plus the point has been made that Sanchez doesn't play Defense or Special Teams which is where the Eagles were killed through the day.

I still think Sanchez is a decent fit for the Chip Kelly Offense and I think he will have a bounce back week against the Tennessee Titans who put in an awful lot before coming up short on Monday Night Football. Of course the doubters won't be silenced unless Sanchez can lead the Eagles into Dallas on Thanksgiving Day next week and leave with the victory.

Green Bay Packers best team in the NFL right now: Right now is the key- right now really doesn't matter all that much and the Super Bowl has really been won by teams who can get hot around December and ride that momentum to the title.

We have seen the Giants (twice) and the Baltimore Ravens do that in recent years so Green Bay fans shouldn't be getting carried away and must hope Aaron Rodgers isn't using his best form of the season in November and unable to sustain that through December and January.

Rodgers is my favourite Quarter Back and I love how he is playing, but Green Bay are not running away with the NFC North just yet and there are lots of big tests ahead if the Packers are to get back to the Super Bowl this season.

The New England Patriots will certainly feel they deserve this title too (and they are still the Number 1 team for me) and I think that has every chance of being the Super Bowl we see in Arizona this season. However, both have some significant hurdles to overcome which can be eased if both can wrap up the Number 1 Seed in their respective Conferences.

Top Ten

1) New England Patriots (8-2): Been Number 1 in my list since beating the Denver Broncos and have followed that with a road win at the Indianapolis Colts which makes the Patriots the team to beat in the AFC.

2) Green Bay Packers (7-3): Done enough to overtake Arizona by putting up another 50 plus points and look the best team in the NFC.

3) Arizona Cardinals (9-1): A three game lead in the NFC West and a two game lead in the NFC means all roads to the Super Bowl in Arizona will have to go through Arizona in this Conference.

4) Dallas Cowboys (7-3): A bye week to get healthier and seeing their nearest rivals Philadelphia blown out at Lambeau Field made Week 11 a good one for the Cowboys.

5) Denver Broncos (7-3): Injuries hurt Denver in their loss at St Louis, but that's two bad performances in three games for the pre-season Super Bowl favourites.

6) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3): They keep winning, but Kansas City will have a chance to prove they are for real in next two weeks after this one when they face Denver and Arizona.

7) Philadelphia Eagles (7-3): Losing in Lambeau Field is no disgrace, but the manner of the loss would have bothered Chip Kelly.

8) Indianapolis Colts (6-4): Might be more of a battle to win the AFC South than they would have though, but the Colts should still win out with Andrew Luck leading the charge.

9) Detroit Lions (7-3): Disappointing loss in Arizona because the Offense couldn't move the ball and use what the Defense had given them by holding the Cardinals to 14 points.

10) Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1): As long as they don't play on national television, Cincinnati may be alright and can win the AFC North.

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (0-10): Closing in on matching the St Louis Rams for third longest losing run in NFL history.

31) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9): Had a bye week but now prepare for a big game against an Indianapolis team coming off a big home loss.

30) Tennessee Titans (2-8): Showed heart in a close loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but it is another loss.

29) New York Giants (3-7): The Giants continue to find creative ways to lose games.

28) Carolina Panthers (3-7-1): They needed this bye week desperately after losing 5 games in a row, although the Panthers are still very much in contention in the awful NFC South.

Week 12 Picks

It was another week with a positive trend for the picks, but I was still able to be mad with myself for changing units from two games- which two games? The Seattle and Denver ones! Some might say that is easy to say in hindsight, but I have never hidden my results or my picks so you will have to take me at face value when I say both games I had as one unit picks, but upgraded them at the last minute and I am not entirely sure why.

I was a bit annoyed with the Seattle pick considering they were stuffed on Fourth and One on two separate occasions, once underneath the Kansas City goalposts when a Field Goal would have given them the cover and every chance of getting the ball back with the chance to win the game with another Field Goal.

Denver had no chance when Julius Thomas and then Emmanuel Sanders were knocked from the game, but I won't complain too much about a winning week. Hopefully the management is better in Week 12 and I can continue the positives since an awful Week 8 with a slate of games that is only missing two teams completing the end of the 'bye' process for the season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders Pick: Thursday Night Football has produced a number of lopsided wins during this season and there is every chance the Kansas City Chiefs can continue that trend against Divisional rivals the Oakland Raiders.

Some have mentioned the poor scheduling spot for Kansas City, but they have plenty of time to prepare for the next game against the Denver Broncos and won't want to lose momentum heading into that vital game that could determine the winner of the AFC West. The short week also should give them an advantage as the better team has generally prevailed in these Thursday Night games and Oakland did spend a lot of energy in coming up short against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.

The problem I see for Oakland is I am not sure how they are going to be able to move the chains on Offense with consistency and also how they are going to slow down Jamaal Charles who has been flying on late. The Raiders have struggled to run the ball, which is the weakness of the Kansas City Defense, and Derek Carr is likely to be under immense pressure from the Chiefs pass rush which has given them one of the top pass Defenses in the NFL.

Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles should make enough plays to keep the Chiefs moving and this looks a big task for Oakland to stay with Kansas City. The Raiders Defense has actually played pretty decently considering, but the Chiefs are a methodical bunch that should make the right plays to keep the team moving forward.

Kansas City beat Oakland easily in both games last season and I do like them to win this one going away.


Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: There was a loud thud as many people jumped off the Mark Sanchez and Philadelphia Eagles bandwagon following their blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 11, but I think they can bounce back in this home game.

One concern is that the Eagles are going into Dallas to play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in just four days time, but they can't afford to drop any games at the moment and Chip Kelly is a Head Coach that preaches taking things one game at a time.

LeSean McCoy may finally have a really big game for Philadelphia if he can pick up where Le'Veon Bell left off on Monday Night Football and that would aid Sanchez if the Eagles can establish the run. However, the Secondary is a bit of problem for the Titans and I would still think Sanchez can have enough success downfield in this Offense that loves to take big shots.

I would also expect the Philadelphia Defense to come out and try and prove the loss to Green Bay and having 50 points hung on them was something of an anomaly and I think the pressure the Eagles get up front will be a problem for Zach Mettenberger to deal with. Tennessee also put in a huge effort on Monday Night Football and they are 1-3 against the spread as a double digit underdog over the last three seasons so may not have the required energy levels to keep this competitive.

While the game with Dallas is looming, Philadelphia can't afford to overlook Tennessee and I think they win this one big.


Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots Pick: This really isn't that important a game for the New England Patriots all things considering, but I don't think Bill Belichick is going to risk seeing the Miami Dolphins get a little closer to them in the AFC East considering the Dolphins have beaten them already this season.

They are also facing a Detroit Lions team that lost a big game agains NFC rivals Arizona in Week 11 and who have to host the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day and so it can be argued that this game is perhaps one that the Lions would rather not play.

It is a tough game for the Lions who have struggled to run the ball and Matt Stafford may see Calvin Johnson blanketed by Darrelle Revis for much of the day. Stafford has shown some stubbornness to force the ball to Megatron which could be an issue against New England who are always well prepared for games and Detroit may have a few issues moving the chains consistently.

One thing going in their favour though is the fact that the Lions can get a lot of pressure up front on Tom Brady without taking more players out of coverage. With Detroit's ability to stop the run, that pressure could make it much more difficult for New England to have a strong Offensive showing too which does make this amount of points to lay look a lot.

However, the Detroit Secondary will have a tough job slowing down Rob Gronkowski who is healthy and making some outstanding plays, while Brady will also look to get the ball out of his hands quickly and could challenge the Lions.

Detroit haven't been a great road underdog in recent seasons and New England are also 7-1 against the spread when favoured by between 3.5 and 7 points over the last three seasons. I'm liking the Patriots to ride their momentum to a double digit win in this one.


Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Green Bay Packers have put up 50 points in back to back games and they have become the third team to do that in the NFL- the last two teams have gone 1-1 against the spread and I look for Green Bay to make that 2-1 this week.

The Packers have been playing so well and it is hard to see how Minnesota are going to slow them down in this one with the balance shown on Offense. Green Bay should have success throwing and running the ball in this one and while they won't get to 50 points, they should reach at least 30 with the way they have been playing.

So the question shifts to whether Minnesota can find enough points to keep up with the Packers and it would be a surprise if they can do that with Teddy Bridgewater not really being asked to take too many risks. This Packers Defense isn't really one you want to throw against all too often either with the added pressure they have gotten up front in recent games which has seen the Secondary turn the ball over.

Extra possessions for Aaron Rodgers won't be a good thing for the Vikings and they might not be able to rely on the run either if Minnesota find themselves in a big hole in this one.

Green Bay are 12-5 against the spread against NFC North rivals over the last three seasons and they have enjoyed being a favourite over between 3.5 and 9.5 points, going 12-6 against the spread in that same time frame. I like the Packers to find a double digit win in this one.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a loss and Andrew Luck has generally bounced back in the best way as he has helped the Colts go 11-1 against the spread in that spot and I think there is every chance they can cover this big number.

Andrew Luck will need to be leading the Colts in this one as he will have to make do without Ahmad Bradshaw for the rest of the season and I am not sure Trent Richardson will ever prove he was worth a First Round pick. However, Luck should be fine throwing against this Secondary and I do think the Colts can score plenty of points.

It'll be tough for Blake Bortles to keep up, while there is every chance that he will offer up some extra possessions with turnovers being a problem for him. Bortles hasn't been helped by a porous Offensive Line which has seen him throwing under pressure, but he could rely on Denard Robinson to run the ball as long as this game doesn't get out of hand.

It is a big number as I have mentioned but the Colts have dominated Divisional rivals though and they are 12-2 against the spread in those games over the last three seasons. The Jaguars are also just 2-3 against the spread as the road underdog being given between 10.5 and 14 points and Indianapolis have won the last 4 games by an average of 24.5 points per game and I will look for the Colts to have a big win in this one too.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Pick: I have little doubt that both of these Offenses will be heavily reliant on the big Receivers that will take the field as Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans of Tampa Bay take on Alshon Jeffrey/Brandon Marshall of Chicago.

The added intrigue comes from the fact that Lovie Smith returns to Chicago, where he did have a lot of success as the Head Coach, along with Josh McCown who played so well in relief of Jay Cutler last season.

That additional motivation along with the importance of the game for Tampa Bay who still challenge in the NFC South could give the Buccaneers the edge in this game and I do like the amount of points they are being given.

I backed Chicago to beat Minnesota in Week 11, but the Bears were a small favourite in that instance and they haven't been as good when asked to lay bigger numbers. In fact the Bears are just 2-5 against the spread when set as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 7 points over the last three seasons and they are also just 5-14 against the spread at home in that same period.

Tampa Bay have also been an effective road team this season, including both straight up wins, and they are 4-1 against the spread on their travels. All the money in Vegas seems to be pouring on the home team after their dominating win over Minnesota in Week 11, but I think this Buccaneers team is capable of making this a very competitive game and have a real shot at winning it too.


Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos Pick: When the spread was initially released at the start of the week, I wasn't going to have anything to do with this game because I thought giving up more than a Touchdown was perhaps too much for Denver to cover. Some will obviously be interested in backing the Dolphins in the current form of both of these teams, but I also didn't want to go against Peyton Manning looking to bounce back from a loss.

Since then, the sharp money has seen the spread come down below a Touchdown and I think now is the time to back the Broncos who may have Emmanuel Sanders and possibly Julius Thomas in the activated numbers.

I am super impressed with the way the Miami Defense has played, but Ryan Tannehill trying to keep up with Peyton Manning on the road in these conditions looks a big ask. This is a Denver team that has gone 5-0 against the spread in the last three seasons when favoured by more than a Field Goal up to a Touchdown at home and I think Manning is going to have something to prove.

Some have pointed to Miami's record as an underdog in recent seasons, but they are just 2-3 against the spread in that spot this season, while the Dolphins have struggled coming off a Divisional game. In fact, they are 4-8 against the spread in their next game over the last three seasons, going just 1-4 in that time when winning a Divisional game.

Oh and about Peyton Manning off a loss? Denver have covered their next game 5 times in a row since the beginning of last season when losing the previous game straight up.


New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Unless you have been living under a rock for the last week or so, you will know the extreme weather that has gripped Buffalo has meant this game had to be moved to a neutral site. The big question has to be how the Buffalo players have been able to prepare and focus on the New York Jets with the problems that have been affecting their homes and families?

Both teams wouldn't normally be expected to run the ball that effectively against the Defenses they are facing, but the faster track on the indoor turf in Detroit may actually assist in ripping off some yards on the ground.

Neither team will want to leave Michael Vick or Kyle Orton in third and long situations considering the pass rush the Bills and Jets have gotten and the poor Offensive Lines that both are playing behind. Of the two teams, the Bills have the better Secondary, but the Jets have had the better preparation coming into the game and I think they have a real chance of upsetting the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo are just 1-4 against the spread as the favourite this season and I can't help but feel all of the distractions of the last week are going to be too much for players to overcome. Before all of the events during the week, I loved the Jets with a 4.5 point head start, but I still like them getting the points albeit for a small interest.


Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints Pick: It hasn't been that long since backing the New Orleans Saints in the SuperDome was an automatic good choice from a slate of games, but this season has proven to be much different.

In fact, the Saints are looking to avoid a third straight home loss although they should have a real opportunity to get back to winning ways against the Baltimore Ravens. Losing Brandin Cooks is a disappointment, as is Drew Brees' play, but the Baltimore Secondary has been struggling with injuries and the Saints are capable of hitting the deep ball.

The Ravens can get pressure up front and Brees has made some stunning mistakes at Quarter Back, but New Orleans should be able to pass the ball on Baltimore. On the other hand, Joe Flacco and the Ravens Offense is likely to have plenty of success themselves with New Orleans Secondary being in disarray for much of the season.

Flacco should find the likes of Steve Smith and Torrey Smith downfield, while Baltimore should be able to establish Justin Forsett which is more than what will be expected of Mark Ingram.

The AFC North has dominated the NFC South too including Cleveland beating Atlanta on Sunday and that is another reason I am a little wary of backing New Orleans.

However, I think this is a Saints team that can generally play better at home and who are 4-0 against the spread when favoured by three or fewer points in the SuperDome over the last three seasons. The Ravens are just 2-4 against the spread when set as the road underdog of three points or less over the same period and a think a small interest in New Orleans is warranted to take the sole lead in the NFC South.

0 Unit Picks: Cleveland Browns + 3 Points, Cincinnati Bengals + 1.5 Points, Arizona Cardinals + 7 Points, San Diego Chargers - 5 Points, San Francisco 49ers - 8.5 Points, New York Giants + 3.5 Points

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.85 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 11 Points @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 47-40-2, + 11.26 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 12 Picks 2013 (November 21-25)

This is the final week where some teams can enjoy their bye and that means the Play Offs are looming large. It was a good week for the picks as the season continues in fine form, but I am aware that is was between Week 12 and Week 17 that I really struggled last season after a good start to that season.

Why do I think that happened? I do believe it was down to teams with losing records taking more chances as they had 'nothing to lose' with the Play Offs already out of reach, while my focus probably wasn't at its best which was only recovered by the time the Play Offs rolled around. I'll be looking to avoid that fate this time around as a very important week for a number of teams begins.

Week 11 Thoughts

The big no call at the end of the Carolina-New England game on Monday Night Football: It was quite an unbelievable end to the Panthers-Patriots game on Monday night as Tom Brady looked to lead New England on a game winning drive.

I was more bemused by the fact that the officials barely gave an announcement as to why the flag had been picked up and instead the head referee was walked down the tunnel with Tom Brady telling him what a 'fucking brutal' call had been made.

The NFL have, unsurprisingly, backed the officials decision as being the correct one, but I think the best point being made at the moment is that this is a call that would have been called pass interference if it occurred anywhere else on the field. Forget the last drive too- if this happens at any other time bar the last play of the game, I am sure that DPI would have been called and New England could have the ball on the Carolina 1 yard line.

Like many other sports, the inconsistency in the calls made by the referees is what infuriates fans/players/coaches and this is another example of that... And just out of interest, move this game to New England and what are the chances of the referee picking up the flag and ending the game on a play like that for the HOME team?

Jim Schwartz, what are you thinking? Your team is up by four points and you have a chip shot to score a Field Goal and go up by a Touchdown... So why would any Head Coach decide to try a fake Field Goal there?

I really don't understand Jim Schwartz' thinking here, especially after saying last week that Detroit look a team that is going places, but a defeat like that has me questioning the Lions again. They are known for shooting themselves in the foot, but the loss has given Chicago a way back into the NFC North, while Green Bay are also in contention despite losing 3 games in a row.

The game on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers is all important for Detroit now, but the Lions have to do better with their play-calling if they are to achieve their aims of making the Play Offs and also find someone outside of Calvin Johnson to make the big plays down the stretch.

Kansas City are who we thought they were: I haven't really respected the 9-0 record that the Kansas City Chiefs brought into their Week 11 game against Denver and the problem certainly came from the fact that they had to come from a big deficit to get into the game.

I had my doubts that the Chiefs could come back from a two possession deficit with the way the Offense runs and that proved to be the case on Sunday.

The Defense is probably even better than I thought, although they will need to get the pass rush going in the second game against the Broncos in Week 13, but Kansas City will need to score more points if they are to go deep into the Play Offs.

I remain unconvinced they can do that if I am honest, but they have another chance to change my mind in Week 13.

Gary Kubiak may just have cost himself the Head Coach job at Houston: I feel sorry for what Gary Kubiak had to go through when he suffered a mini-stroke recently at half time of a nationally televised game, but he may just have punched his ticket out of Houston with his decision on Sunday in the loss to Oakland.

Being 2-8 is one thing, but why in the world did Gary Kubiak think it was a good idea to pull Case Keenum and bring back Matt Schaub? His reasoning makes no sense, while the fans teed off on Schaub for the rest of the game.

Schaub then got into an argument with Andre Johnson, who has been in great form since Keenum took the starting job, to end the game and it was a strange decision that has backfired badly and will ultimately cost Kubiak his job in my opinion.

Making matters stranger, Kubiak has announced that Keenum will be the starter again next week which makes Sunday that much more baffling as far as I am concerned.

Seattle Seahawks should win home-field advantage: I think the San Francisco loss to New Orleans has given Seattle the inside edge to home-field advantage in the NFC and that means big trouble for the rest of the teams in that Conference.

Seattle just don't lose at home these days, riding a 13 game winning run there and a win over the New Orleans Saints there after their bye this week will surely give the Seahawks the Number 1 seed.

They would have tie-breakers over the Saints and Panthers, while they hold a big lead over the 49ers in the Division and the schedule would favour Seattle too. Pete Carroll knows the window isn't that big for this Seahawks team to win it all and they are the favourites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

My Play Off teams: For the rest of the season, I will make the prediction of which teams will make the Play Offs and their seedings. Of course these predictions could change on a weekly basis as surprise results, injuries and other intangibles take their toll.

AFC- 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Indianapolis, 4) Cincinnati, 5) Kansas City, 6) Pittsburgh

NFC- 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Green Bay, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco

Top Ten

1) Seattle Seahawks (10-1): Only team with ten wins and in control of the whole NFC

2) Denver Broncos (9-1): A huge win for the Broncos in their bid to win the Number 1 seed in the AFC.

3) New Orleans Saints (8-2): That was an impressive win over San Francisco, but another big test awaits in Week 13 in Seattle.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1): Could this be the start of a real slip for the Chiefs?

5) Carolina Panthers (7-3): One of the hottest teams in the NFL, although they got away with a win over New England on Monday Night Football.

6) Indianapolis Colts (7-3): I am not convinced about a team that can't run the ball and has lost Reggie Wayne, but they have virtually won the AFC South already.

7) Cincinnati Bengals (7-4): Andy Dalton has to play better after the bye if the Bengals are to win the AFC North.

8) Philadelphia Eagles (6-5): A bye this week, but may still have lead in the NFC East depending on the Giants-Cowboys outcome.

9) Chicago Bears (6-4): Back in the NFC North Division hunt despite being swept by Detroit.

10) Arizona Cardinals (6-4): It may be controversial to put them above the 49ers, but Arizona are on a winning streak, are back in the Wild Card mix with a tie-breaker win over Carolina and San Francisco are on a two game slide.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9): Things are back to normal as the Jaguars lose by double-digits again.

31) Houston Texans (2-8): Taking out Case Keenum, their best chance to win, and eight losses in a row is terrible for a team that was thinking Super Bowl.

30) Atlanta Falcons (2-8): Injuries have killed the Offense, Matt Ryan has regressed the last few weeks and Atlanta have four losses in a row.

29) Minnesota Vikings (2-8): Minnesota have permanently been in my bottom five, but they are unlikely to move out with issues at Quarter Back and the whole Defense.

28) Washington Redskins (3-7): Lost to the Vikings, and played an awful game for much of their loss to Philadelphia with questions about Mike Shanahan's future as Head Coach.

Week 12 Picks

It was a strong Week 11 for the picks and this has all felt good after seeing the way Vegas have been battering the public according to the financials released each week. This is an interesting week where there are a number of the Play Off chasing teams facing one another and the race to the post-season is going to be fascinating in both Conferences.

It will all begin with a Divisional game on Thursday night which should have been a very important one for both teams and I hope another good week is in the offing. I am also looking to avoid the collapse that came last season at around this time, but paying full attention to the games and spots should hopefully help me avoid that carnage.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I don't like being on a team that is being backed by the public as heavily as the New Orleans Saints are, but they do look the right side to me and I will take them to inflict a big win over their Divisional rivals.

While some will worry about the Saints having to face Seattle next, I am of the belief that they will feel they have enough time to prepare for that game with this being a Thursday Night tilt and not facing the Seahawks until Monday Night Football. New Orleans also can't afford to drop a Divisional game with Carolina just a game behind so I expect a full focus from the Saints.

I just don't see a way where Atlanta can slow down this Offense and it would not surprise me in the least if New Orleans become the fourth team in a row to surpass 30 points against them. There are too many Offensive weapons, even without Darren Sproles, for Drew Brees to lean on and that means the question shifts to Atlanta's Offense.

Matt Ryan has struggled without the Receiving weapons he had last season and he is making too many mistakes in recent weeks. He might be revitalised, with the rest of the team, to try and play spoiler against a Divisional rival, but it is a big ask for Atlanta to score enough points to make this competitive.

I am expecting a fully focused New Orleans team to pull away from Atlanta as this game goes on and record a double digit win on the road.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: It isn't a familiar position for the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the underdog when going up against the Cleveland Browns, but I do think they are worth backing with the points in this game.

The Cleveland Defense is legit, but does anyone really trust the Offense not to implode in a similar fashion to last week? On the other hand, it has to be considered that the Steelers will find it tough to move the chains themselves as Joe Haden should be able to take out Antonio Brown for much of the game and force Ben Roethlisberger to look elsewhere.

Running the ball won't be easy for the Steelers, but Cleveland should have more success doing that and I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns can complete a Divisional home sweep with another win today. However, the momentum has definitely been behind Pittsburgh in recent weeks and I have a suspicion that they are going to sneak the 6 seed in the AFC. They can't afford to lose here and I'll have a small interest with the points.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It may have taken the Tampa Bay coaching staff a little too long to realise what kind of quality player that they have in Darrelle Revis, but they have learned that in time and have begun to win games. It was  a poor start to the year for the Buccaneers, but back to back wins gives them confidence and they gave Seattle fits on the road only three weeks ago.

Having Revis in man coverage will mean he is matched up with Calvin Johnson and the key for Tampa Bay is their big Corner Back acquisition will consider this a successful game if he can restrict Johnson's impact.

If Tampa Bay can force Detroit to look for other options, they will have a chance in this game to spring the surprise, especially if Mike Glennon can exploit a Secondary that has struggled this season. Tampa Bay will need to at least keep Detroit honest and pound the ball on the ground too, although I can't see too much success for them when trying that.

It does feel the Buccaneers are getting too many points in this one, especially if you consider Detroit have a huge game on Thursday when they host the Green Bay Packers. That game is far more important than this one and the Lions may be guilty of overlooking Tampa Bay to an extent.

The Buccaneers are playing well enough to make Detroit pay if that is the case and I will take the points in this one.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I really don't know why the Green Bay Packers are being backed so heavily to cover the spread in this one unless Aaron Rodgers has secretly made it clear that he will be playing... If Rodgers was starting, I would like the Packers to win this one going away, but don't have the same faith of Scott Tolzien doing that.

Tolzien hasn't played badly between the 20's, but he has made critical mistakes inside the red zone, and turnovers in general have hurt his play. I don't think the Vikings are playing well enough in the Secondary to slow down this Offense, but they have been solid against the run so Eddie Lacy might not be as effective and force the Quarter Back to win the game.

As bad as Minnesota have been Defensively, they will be completely focused on trying to derail a Divisional rival and have a decent match up on paper when they have the ball. The Packers have begun to struggle Defensively, perhaps because their own Offense isn't having long drives to give them enough rest, and I can see Adrian Peterson being a real factor in this one.

Peterson should have a lot of running room in this one, while Christian Ponder, the most likely starting Quarter Back, is going to be facing a Defense that has struggled against the pass in their most recent games. The Vikings should be able to score enough points to at least keep this close, even if they don't win, especially with the Packers having a big 'win or bust' game at Detroit during the week. Green Bay can't afford to drop this game if they are to make the Play Offs, but I have a feeling it will be closer than the points suggest.


New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I know, I know, Geno Smith was a travesty last week in the loss to the Buffalo Bills, but he has been bad one week and followed that up with a comeback performance and that will hopefully be the case in this one for the Jets backers.

I am more convinced with the Jets Defense and I expect them to make it tough for Joe Flacco and a lethargic Baltimore Offense that we have seen for most of the season. They have struggled to put together sustained drives and it is only their own Defense that has kept them in games.

Baltimore should be able to at least pressure Smith in the pocket and neither team is going to be able to run the ball effectively so the Jets Quarter Back has to avoid the turnovers that cost the Jets the game last week. This has all the making of a low-scoring game so mistakes are going to be highlighted as those extra possessions or short fields will be critical.

The Jets Secondary hasn't played that well at times, but I am not sure the Ravens can exploit that and getting more than a field goal start for the road team looks good. Baltimore could easily be focused on the big Thanksgiving Day game against the Steelers at home too so a three point win might be the best they can hope for.


San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Backing against teams in a bad spot in the NFL is usually a productive place to start and the Kansas City Chiefs can't be in a worse spot. This game comes between two big games against the Denver Broncos, who handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season last weekend.

Emotionally it can be tough to recover from such a loss, while the Kansas City Offense isn't exactly known for putting a lot of points on the board and all that should give the desperate San Diego Chargers a chance in the game.

San Diego lost an important game at the Miami Dolphins last week and another loss this week will seriously dent their chances of earning the final Wild Card place in the AFC, but they have one of the more effective Quarter Backs of the season and Philip Rivers is capable of engineering long scoring drives.

As long as Rivers avoids turning the ball over, the Chargers certainly have half a chance to spring the surprise in this one, even with their turgid Defense on the field. Both teams will chew up a lot of clock with their drives so getting more than a field goal start for San Diego is the call.


Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Carolina are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment and are coming off two huge wins at the San Francisco 49ers and at home against the New England Patriots, but that might make them a little susceptible for a surprise result in this one.

Carolina are not in a great spot after those big wins and a quick look at their schedule shows the game against Miami is the 'easiest' one they have in a run of around 6 games. The Panthers could potentially overlook the Dolphins after an emotional couple of close wins and they are on a short week.

The absence of Charles Johnson may make it easier for Ryan Tannehill to find time in the pocket to hurt Carolina in the Secondary, while I expect the Dolphins to establish the run in this one.

Establishing the run makes it easier for Tannehill to complete the passes he needs to, while Miami will try and set their pass rush up to hurry Cam Newton and try and force him to make mistakes.

Both teams will look to run the ball, which could shorten the game, and I think the emotional let down spot is too big to ignore and the Dolphins are perhaps being given too many points in this one.


Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: It is the time of the season when you do have to look at spots that teams find themselves in and there is no doubt that the Indianapolis Colts are in a bad spot with this non-Conference game coming between the big games with the Tennessee Titans.

Winning the game next week would secure Indianapolis' place in the Play Offs as they can wrap up the Division and they could easily overlook a game at a non-Conference foe.

Arizona also have a lot of momentum behind them and I think Carson Palmer could have a big game against this Secondary with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The Colts haven't been at their best Defensively in the last three weeks, while the Offense could struggle to sustain drives against the Cardinals Defense.

We saw another NFC West team bamboozle Andrew Luck recently when the St Louis Rams turned the ball over and won at a canter. I don't expect this to be as easy, but I think Arizona will shut down the running game and force Luck to throw to Receivers that have had drops, while also trying to avoid mistakes against a ball-hawking Secondary.

I wish the spread had come under the key number of 3, but I do like the Cardinals to win this game.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys Defense has been brutal the last few games and they are giving up far too many yards per game on that side of the ball. The loss of Sean Lee is critical to their chances and I think this has swung the edge in the game towards the New York Giants who are rallying in the NFC East with a 4 game winning run.

I still don't fully trust Eli Manning to avoid the mistakes that have plagued his game this season, but the Giants have found a semblance of a running game that keeps the pressure off the Quarter Back. Dallas will find it tough to bring down Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs without their inspirational Linebacker Lee.

If the Giants can run the ball, Eli will feel he doesn't have to push too much, the reason he has given for the number of Interceptions thrown, while Dallas haven't shown they are capable of slowing down too many teams when throwing the ball.

Tony Romo is capable of leading the Offense in a shoot-out as shown in the game with the Denver Broncos, but he hasn't played that well of late and the pressure will be on him as the Cowboys are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball.

Romo will at least have Miles Austin back and Dez Bryant healthier, but I think the Giants are going to find a way to win this game and level their record with the Cowboys in the NFC East.


Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick: It is always fascinating to see Tom Brady go up against Peyton Manning, but I do feel the edge is with the Denver Broncos in this one, particularly on the Defensive side of the ball.

Both Offenses should keep the chains moving, but I can see Denver making more stops and perhaps forcing more field goal attempts than the other way around.

Denver create so many match up problems that it is tough to slow down their Offense, although this is coming between two big Divisional games against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is also exceptional when coming off a loss and rarely will guide his team to back to back losses.

The gusty wind forecast could also be a problem for the passing game and that would swing the momentum to New England in my opinion as they are better at the ground game of the two teams. However, I think the Broncos are going to make enough plays to win this one and put Denver in a strong position to secure home field advantage in the Play Offs for the second season in a row.

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 9 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 51-39-1, + 17.88 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units