NFL Week 3 Picks 2023 (September 21-25)

First it was Aaron Rodgers.

Next it is Nick Chubb.

The NFL is a brutally tough year for all of the athletes involved and it is really difficult to watch some of the biggest names suffer serious injury. They will be the players that make the headlines, and it was good to hear Saquon Barkley has escaped a season ending injury of his own, but there are players throughout the League who are going down with long-term injuries.

Once again, it is the main reason it is so difficult to pick the Super Bowl Champion in August with the outlook for any team changing drastically. The Jets looked terrible without Rodgers amidst Zach Wilson continuing to struggle, although it feels like they will have to make a move to bring in another Quarter Back to give this team a chance, while the Cleveland Browns will have a hard time without their best Offensive player.

The Giants might have put a big comeback on the board in Week 2, but would not have been the same team without Saquon Barkley if he was forced to miss the entirety of the season.

Last season we saw how quickly things changed for the Miami Dolphins when Tua Tagovailoa continued to deal with concussion issues and it is the main reason my enthusiasm is still being contained after a very good 2-0 start. Winning games behind a big Offensive effort in Week 1 and then a strong Defensive effort in Week 2 is very encouraging, but the Dolphins will need better health than last season and it would give them every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

There are some good looking teams in the AFC, while the NFC continues to look like a three horse race between the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Those three teams looked the best in the Conference going into the season and nothing has changed through the first two weeks of the 2023 season, although it is again wise to point out how quickly things can shift with an injury or two.

Week 3 begins with a Thursday Night Football game between two NFC teams playing after road wins on Sunday.

Further selections will be placed in this thread in the coming days as we begin another busy week before the first London games of the 2023 season in Week 4.

It was a mixed week for the NFL Picks, but a couple of those selections could have easily turned my way with late plays changing the eventual outcome.

Hopefully there is better to come in Week 3, beginning with this Thursday Night Football game.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: At one stage it looked like the New York Giants (1-1) were on their way to a second blowout loss of the 2023 season as they trailed the Arizona Cardinals by 21 points into the second half. All credit has to be given to the team for fighting back and earning the victory on a late Field Goal, even if they missed the cover of the line, but it may be tough to replicate just days later with a game on Thursday Night Football.

Putting in as much of an emotional effort, as well as a physical one, will have taken something from the New York Giants. The win will have made them feel better, but they are facing the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) in their first home game of the season and the limited time to recover certainly favours the home team.

The Giants have stuck around on the West Coast in preparation for the Thursday Night Football schedule in Week 3, but they may have to do without Saquon Barkley who was injured late in the win over the Cardinals. The Running Back was vitally important to the recovery made by New York and the only positive news for the Giants is that the ankle injury picked up in the Week 2 victory is not expected to keep Barkley out for too long.

Even now, Brian Daboll has refused to rule out Barkley playing on Thursday, but that is a long shot and it would make sense to keep him out with the additional time between Week 3 and Week 4 games on the short week.

The pressure will be on Daniel Jones, who had struggled in the first half against Arizona as he continues to operate behind a shaky Offensive Line. That does not bode well for the Giants against this San Francisco Defensive unit, which may be the best in the NFL, and keeping the 49ers pass rush out of the backfield is going to be an almost impossible task for this Giants Offensive Line.

It is very difficult to imagine the Giants being able to establish the run with any kind of consistency, even if Daniel Jones is capable of some big gains on the ground himself. Without Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida will be looking to make an impact against his former team, but the 49ers Defensive Line is tough and it could be a long day for the entire Giants Offensive unit.

Unfortunately for fans of New York, the San Francisco Offense is not expected to have many issues moving the ball up and down the field.

Kyle Shanahan designs some very creative Offensive plays, but he may lean on a more traditional approach in this one with Christian McCaffrey expected to have a big game on the ground. The 49ers are moving the ball at 5.6 yards per carry early in the 2023 season and they are facing a New York Defensive Line that were getting run over by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.

This time the Giants are also facing a Quarter Back who has been comfortable in the San Francisco system and Brock Purdy is likely to be playing in a relatively clean pocket. Brandon Aiyuk could be absent for the 49ers, but Purdy is expected to have a solid game operating from short down and distance more often than not and the San Francisco 49ers look capable of covering what is a big spread.

The Giants did win the last time they played a road game in San Francisco, but that was back in November 2018 and they were blown out at home by the 49ers in September 2020.

This is a spread that leaves a team open to a backdoor cover, but the feeling is that the San Francisco 49ers could pile up the points and make a few more plays on the Defensive side of the ball. Some could be concerned with this being a game set between two Divisional games for the 49ers, but San Francisco will not be too concerned with an upcoming game against Arizona and they may be able to shut down the Giants Offensive output for long enough to clear this mark.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns Pick: A devastating injury to Nick Chubb has left the Cleveland Browns (1-1) wondering what they can achieve in the 2023 season. Losing the best Offensive player clearly affected the team in the loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, but it also means having to put more pressure on the shoulders of Deshaun Watson, who has yet to reach the levels he was producing with the Houston Texans prior to the allegations about his conduct which meant missing almost two years of playing time.

The Quarter Back is still speaking with plenty of confidence, but the play on the field has been erratic and it will be even tougher for him if teams are not focusing on Nick Chubb and shutting down one of the top Running Backs in the NFL.

Kareem Hunt has returned to Cleveland and his familiarity with the system should help, but he isn't Nick Chubb. The Offensive Line has opened some big holes for the running game, although they are a little banged up and trying to move the ball on the ground against this Tennessee Titans (1-1) Defensive Line is going to be tough. You have to believe Hunt and Jerome Ford will have some success, but the Titans have been tough up front and they may feel that locking down the run will make this all the easier to shut off the Cleveland Offensive game plan.

On the other hand, this could be a big opportunity for Deshaun Watson considering some of the yards that the Titans have given up through the air. Amari Cooper is banged up and potentially limited in Week 3, and the Offensive Line has really had issues keeping teams from out of the backfield, but Watson could have some success when he does get a bit of time.

Having that time is perhaps not going to be easy against this Tennessee pass rush and the Titans have to feel the Defensive unit can give them every chance of earning the potential upset on the road.

In saying that, we have to see more out of the Tennessee Offense and that may be tough if Derrick Henry is not able to suit up. Even with Henry in the line up, the big Running Back will be hitting the Cleveland Defensive Line that is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry on the season and this is an entire unit that has played well in both games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

Ryan Tannehill is difficult to trust considering the form of the veteran early this season- he is not being helped by the Offensive Line which has been stronger in run blocking compared to pass protection, but Tannehill has also made some poor decisions when throwing and it has led to Interceptions.

There were signs of improvement in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2, but Tannehill struggled on the road in the loss at the New Orleans Saints. This Cleveland Defense is perhaps even better than the one the Saints are running out onto the field and they can get pressure up front which may rattle the veteran into more mistakes.

A low-scoring game is likely in this one between two tough Defensive units and it could come down to a mistake or two in determining a winner. The Browns have yet to lose two in a row since Deshaun Watson became their Quarter Back, but losing Nick Chubb for the season will have sent shockwaves through the locker room.

The Browns can bounce back and win this one, but the Titans look a solid team to back with the points. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has a solid record as the underdog, both outright and against the spread, and it feels Tennessee can make enough plays to keep this one close at the very least.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: You have to immediately note the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) have failed to cover as a home favourite in the Trevor Lawrence era at Quarter Back, while the team are travelling to London next week for back to back games.

This could be a potential distraction, but you have to believe the Jaguars will be focused seeing as they are playing a Divisional rival and were just beaten by the Kansas City Chiefs. They would have circled that home game with the Chiefs having been beaten by the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the PlayOffs and coming up short will have hurt, but the Jaguars should be motivated to compete in Week 3.

They are big favourites to beat the Houston Texans (0-2) who have started the CJ Stroud era with a couple of relatively comfortable defeats. The loss last week at home against the Indianapolis Colts was a concern considering the Texans had been narrow favourites against their Divisional rivals, but this is going to be a transitional season for the team and every week it is going to be a learning curve for the young Quarter Back.

CJ Stroud did throw for almost 400 passing yards and had 2 Touchdown passes last week and this Jaguars Secondary is one that will give up some yards. However, the pressure may be all on the Quarter Back, who can scramble around, especially if the Texans are not able to establish the run.

Doing so will not be easy against the Jacksonville Defensive Line- the Houston Offensive Line is banged up and not going to be at full strength in Week 3 and so it is a big ask for the Texans to get much going on the ground. The Offensive Line issues have also meant CJ Stroud has been hit far more than the Houston Texans would have liked and the Jaguars can certainly get into the backfield and prevent Stroud from having the time to attack the Secondary.

While the Offensive unit may have some issues finding consistency, the Houston Defensive unit have really knuckled down and played pretty well. Running the ball well is going to be key for Jacksonville, who have not really established the ground game as well as they would have liked through the first couple of weeks of the season, but doing so will just ease any pressure on Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.

It will also give Lawrence a chance to use play-action to try and attack a Secondary which has played well through the first couple of weeks of the season. Of course it should be noted that Houston have played Baltimore and Indianapolis and neither team have really had a lot of success throwing the ball early on, but Trevor Lawrence has a solid set of Receivers that should offer a much bigger challenge to the Texans.

Calvin Ridley has returned with a vengeance and the Jaguars should be able to offer up more of a test for the Houston Secondary, even if Jacksonville are still working their way into the season.

A balanced Jacksonville Offensive performance led to a big road win over the Houston Texans on New Year's Day, but the expectation is that Trevor Lawrence will be able to have a bit more success throwing. That win snapped a long losing run to the Houston Texans and the Jaguars are capable of backing that up as they look to head to London with some momentum behind them.

Covering as a favourite has been tough, but the Jaguars can make enough plays to do that against the Houston Texans with the Defensive Line likely to set up some short fields that will help the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence will be looking to bounce back from the loss in Week 2 and Jacksonville can find the points to cover here.

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Back to back road wins to start the season looked tough on paper, but the Miami Dolphins (2-0) have won impressively at the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. They have picked up the victory in different ways in those two games and that will be hugely encouraging to the fans with some already thinking this is a Super Bowl team in the making.

Health will be key for the Dolphins and they play at home for the first time this season when hosting the Denver Broncos (0-2).

A couple of plays landing a different way would have seen Sean Payton and Russell Wilson's relationship begin with two wins, but the Broncos have fallen to defeat at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders and already feel like they are playing catch up.

Being in the AFC West means the Broncos can ill-afford to drop another game to fall into a 0-3 hole, but this is a tough place to pick up a victory.

Sean Payton was brought in as Head Coach with the task of 'fixing' Russell Wilson, but it has not worked out as planned so far this season. There have been one or two positive signs from the Quarter Back in the loss in Week 2, but the worry will be the stretches of poor play coming from the veteran, who is also on a very big deal.

The pressure can be relieved if the Denver Broncos are able to run the ball and they will feel that is possible against this Miami Defensive Line. The Dolphins played the run pretty well last week, but are still dealing with some injuries on the Line and this Denver Offensive Line has been able to open up one or two big lanes for Javonte Williams.

Russell Wilson is no longer the scrambling Quarter Back of his prime with the Seattle Seahawks, which is perhaps holding the Broncos back. He has been holding onto the ball a little too long and not able to move away from the pass rush pressure like he once did, but Wilson will be helped if the Broncos are able to push the ball on the ground and give him third and manageable down and distance to deal with.

Vic Fangio may not be talking about the 'revenge' factor, but the former Denver Head Coach may want his Defensive unit in Miami to really get after the Broncos. He will know that the Broncos Offensive Line have had some issues in pass protection and the Dolphins are more than capable of getting into Russell Wilson's backfield, especially if the Broncos become one-dimensional with their play-calling.

Overall you do have to think the Broncos can run the ball and at least give themselves a chance to stay with the Miami Dolphins in this one. The trenches tend to be very important in determining games in the NFL and the Denver Broncos may feel they can run the ball, but also do pretty well at stopping the Miami rushing attack.

This could be pretty important this week with Jayden Waddle expected to have to sit out for the Dolphins as he goes through the concussion protocol. It might mean needing to rely on the run a little more than the Miami Dolphins might have done otherwise, although the Tua Tagovailoa connection with Tyreek Hill is still expected to flourish.

The health of Tagovailoa is going to be very important in determining how the 2023 season is going to develop for the Dolphins and he is playing behind an Offensive Line which is offering up plenty of protection. Mike McDaniels is also a strong Offensive mind who is helping his Quarter Back by getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly at times and the Dolphins will feel this Denver Secondary is still vulnerable after watching how the Washington Commanders attacked them last week.

It should mean the Miami Dolphins are still going to have plenty of Offensive success, even if Waddle has to sit out, and you can imagine plenty will back them to win this by at least a Touchdown. However, the Denver Broncos look capable of scoring a few points of their own and the backdoor cover will certainly be available to the road team.

This is especially so considering the spot in which this game is scheduled- the Dolphins have beaten two potential PlayOff rivals on the road, including a Divisional rival on prime time in Week 2, and Miami are next facing the Buffalo Bills on the road. That is an important game that could be a major factor in working out which of these teams is capable of winning the Division and it could mean the Dolphins are distracted and not focusing so much on the blowout, even for Defensive Co-Ordinator Vic Fangio.

Miami should win, but Sean Payton can design enough plays to help the Broncos keep this one close on the scoreboard. The Broncos can control the clock with their running attack and make sure they keep the Miami Offensive unit on the sidelines for long periods to cool down and the road team could make the points count.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 10 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals + 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Las Vegas Raiders - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2022 (September 24th)

Under the current alignment of College Football, the reality is that the real moves in the PlayOff shake up don't really begin until Conference play gets underway.

While one or two teams have already played a big game within their Conferences, for most teams those games begin in Week 4 and we will begin to see some separation of those hoping to crash the four team PlayOff and those who are going to fall away and perhaps target Bowl Games, and play spoiler for others, at best.

The four team PlayOff system has encouraged schools to take on tougher non-Conference games rather than the blowout warm ups we have tended to see, but the reality is that the unbeaten season is no longer the be all and end all of the final shake up. Of course if we have four unbeaten Power 5 Conference teams they are very likely to make the post-season and try and win a National Championship, but in reality a one loss team is far from done.

Winning Conferences remains a very important part of being invited into the final four, although the SEC has a leg up on most others and the losing team in the SEC Championship Game has a big opportunity to earn a PlayOff spot as long as they have not suffered a defeat in the regular season before that Championship defeat.

Picking a final four in late September is a foolish task, but you have to imagine the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide would both make it having competed for the National Championship last season. If they are both unbeaten in the regular season, they will meet in the SEC Championship Game in December and even a losing team would have a chance of another National Championship run.

However, this season there seems a number of teams who have genuine hopes of winning a Power 5 Conference as an unbeaten Champion and that could hurt the loser of the SEC Championship Game if the season shapes up as it has the potential to do on paper.

For example, the Oklahoma Sooners, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Clemson Tigers and USC Trojans have all looked very impressive. None of those teams have easy runs to remain unbeaten (of course Ohio State and Michigan play in the same Division, never mind Conference), but all will feel they have laid the foundations for what could be a special season and I am really excited about this 2022 College Football season to say the least.

The first couple of weeks for the College Football Picks have been a little up and down, but it is early in what is a long, long season and there is plenty of time to get things motoring in the right direction.

Conference Games are starting this week and there are plenty of good games on the Week 4 slate.

Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Even fans of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) must have forgotten the time when they were amongst the very top teams in the SEC, but there is an excitement building in Knoxville. Head Coach Josh Heupel is only in his second year at the helm here, but is already well on the way to at least matching the seven wins earned in his first season, although expectations are much greater than that.

It is never going to be easy to sit in the same Division as the National Champions, but the Tennessee Volunteers have opened the season playing well enough to be considered one of the main rivals to the Georgia Bulldogs. The schedule in Conference play is going to provide a significant test for the Head Coach and the Volunteers over the weeks ahead, but they have an opportunity to go into the Bye Week unbeaten before big games against the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide from the SEC West.

In Week 4 the concentration is on their own Division as the Volunteers prepare to host the Florida Gators (2-1), a school that has gotten the better of Tennessee on an almost annual basis. In fact, the Gators have won sixteen of the last seventeen games between these SEC East rivals to dominate the series, although this time around the Volunteers are significant favourites to come out on top.

After beating the Utah Utes to open the season, Florida have been undone in their first Conference game against the Kentucky Wildcats and barely held on for a win over in-State rivals the USF Bulls last week. Pressure is building on Anthony Richardson after consecutive games where he has underperformed and all talk of him being compared with the likes of Cam Newton are on hold.

This is going to be a challenging game for Anthony Richardson and the Florida Offensive unit as they don't seem to match up that well with the Tennessee Volunteers who have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball. The Volunteers have not really been able to reach the standards set in the 2019 season in the last two years, but the experience of playing in this system has led to three strong performances to open this season and that will give them confidence after seeing the Gators looking a little toothless.

Much depends on the battle at the line of scrimmage where Florida's Offensive Line will be looking to set the table by establishing the run. Running the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers will be a challenge though and the key for the home team will be to force Anthony Richardson to become a passer from third and long spots, a situation that will not play to the strengths of the Quarter Back.

There have been one or two opportunities to throw against this Volunteers Secondary, but the numbers may be skewed by the fact that teams have had to throw to keep up. While Anthony Richardson has largely had a clean pocket to operate from, he has not been consistent and I would not be surprised if there are one or two Interceptions up for grabs for the home team.

Extra possessions could really see Tennessee turn the screw against a Divisional rival that has made this series embarrassingly one-sided in recent times.

The Volunteers will certainly feel they can have plenty of success whenever they do have the ball in the hands of an Offensive unit that has eight starters back from the team almost doubled the points per game from 2020 (21 points per game) to 2021 (39 points per game). Key skill players returned and Hendon Hooker is much more experienced at Quarter Back now he is in the second year of this system and the early results have been really encouraging for the Volunteers.

Throwing against the non-Conference opponents that have been beaten is a different test than facing a SEC Secondary, but the Volunteers can make things easier for Hooker at Quarter Back by establishing the run. They are up against a Gators Defensive Line which has struggled early this season and I do think Tennessee will be able to get their Offensive Line chugging in run blocking, while also making them more effective in pass blocking from third and short situations.

I can't ignore how one-sided this series has been in recent years, but this Tennessee team looks like they are on the up and up and they can make a statement against the Florida Gators. Make no mistake that this is a big spread in a SEC Divisional Game, but the Volunteers look to have a superior edge on both sides of the ball and I think Head Coach Josh Heupel will know how important it is for his team to really announce themselves on a big stage.

With a Bye Week coming up, Tennessee can leave it all out on the field and I think they will as they use the Secondary to create a couple of turnovers and give their potent Offense the chance to pull away in the second half. Anthony Richardson will be playing with a point to prove at Quarter Back for the Florida Gators and he can be dangerous as a dual-threat, but I will look for the Volunteers to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that can ultimately make the difference for them.

While Florida have a strong record against Tennessee, they have failed to cover in their last eight road games overall and I think that trend continues at Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers are 5-2 against the spread as a home favourite under their current Head Coach and I will back Tennessee to win this one and cover the big mark set.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: They may have dominated the yardage on the day, but the Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) will be frustrated by the home loss to the Washington State Cougars in Week 2 of the College Football season. Head Coach Paul Chryst has only led the Badgers to a single double digit winning season in the last four and that defeat has put him under a bit of pressure even if it came in a non-Conference setting.

They have failed to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game since winning ten games in the 2019 season and that has to be the aim in 2022 considering some of the struggles of the other teams in the West Division. This is easily the weaker of the two Divisions within the Conference, but Wisconsin have a tough schedule to negotiate beginning with this trip to Columbus.

Wisconsin will be facing the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) who have made yet another strong start to a season where National Championship aspirations are very high. Ryan Day has continued to lead the team to double digit winning seasons after the 11-2 record in 2021 and only the shortened 2020 season has been the outlier as Ohio State have won at least ten games in every season since 2012.

However, winning the National Championship has eluded this proud school since 2014 and Ryan Day will feel that anything less than that will always be something detractors could hold over him. Losing the Big Ten Championship last season will have hurt the Buckeyes, who had not failed to win their Conference since 2016, and especially as Ohio State were finally beaten by the Michigan Wolverines.

Ryan Day is unlikely to be sitting on a hot seat, but reaching the PlayOffs has to be the very minimum of aims for the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2022 and that brings pressure. His team have started like they have something to prove too and there is plenty of experience on both sides of the ball which makes the Buckeyes very dangerous.

A win over Notre Dame to open the season perhaps does not look as impressive as it did after Week 1, but Ohio State have crushed overmatched non-Conference opponents in the last two weeks. This is a much tougher test for them Offensively compared with facing Arkansas State and Toledo, but CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit will believe they can push the Wisconsin Badgers.

As with many games, the line of scrimmage will be very important- Ohio State have been able to run the ball efficiently this season, but the Badgers Defensive Line prides itself on shutting down the run and forcing Offensives to become one-dimensional against them.

It is never easy to run the ball against Wisconsin, but I do think the Buckeyes Offensive Line is a real strength for them this season and can give their Quarter Back a chance by putting the team in third and manageable situations. This will be key to give CJ Stroud to hit his playmakers in the Wisconsin Secondary and ease the Badgers pass rush, which has been able to get after the Quarter Back in their early games, although the Buckeyes Offensive Line have provided clean pockets for Stroud when he has stepped back to throw.

Ohio State will be able to move the ball, even if not as efficiently as they did against the Toledo Rockets in their last game, and that means Wisconsin are going to have to find the Offensive plays to stay with their hosts.

The Badgers have crushed a couple of overmatched opponents with their Offensive output, but there has to be a concern that they managed just 14 points against the Washington State Cougars, a team not nearly as strong as Ohio State's Defensive unit are.

Like their opponent, the Buckeyes Defensive Line have been stout against the run and I do think they may not have the same respect for the Wisconsin Quarter Back as the other way around. Graham Mertz is plenty experienced, but the Quarter Back has a tendency to make poor decisions when throwing in the Secondary and that is underlined by the fact he had more Interceptions than Touchdown passes in 2021.

You simply do not want to get too far behind if you are the Wisconsin Badgers as Graham Mertz will be throwing against an elite Ohio State Secondary. Turnovers have not really come about just yet, but the Buckeyes are not giving away too much through the air and I do think the focus will be to shut down the run and make Mertz beat them.

Ultimately this feels like it is going to be a game that sees the difference in levels between the two Quarter Backs prove to be a pivotal factor in the outcome of the game. Where CJ Stroud could make one or two big time throws to keep the chains moving, the worry about Graham Mertz is that he may have a back-breaking Interception and it could be the reason the Ohio State Buckeyes are able to pull away and eventually cover what is a massive line, all things considered.

The Badgers have not been a very good road underdog to back in recent times and they are 1-3 against the spread in their last four in that situation. Ryan Day's Ohio State have not always been the best home favourite to back, but I expect them to be really focused on a team many consider to be the best in the Big Ten West and they have beaten Wisconsin eight times in a row, while the Buckeyes are also 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six hosting the Badgers.

Sharp money looks to be moving this spread further in the direction of the favourite and I think the Ohio State Buckeyes will find a way to cover a huge number.

Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: There will have been a real sense of disappointment in the Kansas State Wildcats (2-1) locker room after the defeat to Tulane, but there will be some feeling that they were looking past an opponent as a big favourite and thinking ahead to the start of Big 12 Conference play.

That is no excuse for the Wildcats, but I certainly think we are going to see a much better effort all around in Week 4 of the College Football season.

They will need a much better effort if they are going to beat the Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) in Norman and the Wildcats will be confident as they have become something of a bogey team for one of the National Championship favourites. There is always quite a heavy turnover of players out of Oklahoma between seasons as players decide to move to the NFL, but the school will be well aware of how tough Kansas State are within this Conference, whether you play them at home or on the road.

A first year Head Coach is taking over a team with five starters returning on both sides of the ball, but the Oklahoma Sooners usually have strong recruiting years and the crushing of the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road shows how good this team can be. Head Coach Brent Venables won't be getting carried away, but he has to like what he has seen from Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back and from a Defensive unit which has looked imperious in dismissing three non-Conference opponents.

However, Venables will also be well aware of the increase in challenge that comes with playing in the Big 12 and much of their Offensive success depends on the Offensive Line establishing the run. The Oklahoma Sooners are going to have a tough test of their credentials against the Kansas State Defensive unit which has seven returning starters and who have proven to be a difficult team to attack either through the air or on the ground.

I do think the Sooners have the power on the line of scrimmage to set Dillon Gabriel up in third and manageable spots, and that is going to be really important for them. Running the ball opens up play-action down the field and I do think Dillon Gabriel will be able to attack what may be one of the better Secondaries in the Big 12 and perhaps even the nation of College Football.

Offensively the Sooners look strong, but it could be the Defensive unit that takes them back into the College Football PlayOff and perhaps even win a National Championship. There are likely to be bigger tests to come compared with what they have faced early in the 2022 season, but the Sooners have been strong on the Defensive Line and shutting down the Kansas State running game is going to give them a real edge in this game.

It won't be easy as the Wildcats bring in an experienced Offensive Line who will feel they can force their will on any team they face with the numbers already produced this season. Doing that against the Sooners is a tougher test, but Kansas State have to find a way to put their Quarter Back in a promising position by getting in front of the chains.

Having Adrian Martinez behind Center helps, but the Wildcats will need the Quarter Back to show off a little more with his arm if they are going to give Oklahoma something to think about. He proved he can do that when playing Quarter Back for the Nebraska Cornhuskers against Oklahoma in 2021, although Adrian Martinez is never too far away from an Interception and will have to be a little wary of the Sooners Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.

I do think Kansas State can have success and they can be competitive, but my feeling is that the Oklahoma Sooners will be too consistent on both sides of the ball and eventually that can lead to a turnover or two to help them pull away.

The Wildcats do have a strong recent record when facing the Sooners, although the home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six in the series.

Over the last decade, Kansas State have been a strong road underdog to back, but in Chris Klieman's time as Head Coach they are just 6-5 against the spread in this spot. Oklahoma continue to be a productive home favourite to back and they can stay focused to beat a team that have given them problems in recent years as the National Championship talk ramps up around Norman.

USC Trojans @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: Not many fans in Oklahoma will be impressed with the way Lincoln Riley not only left their Sooners to become the new Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0), but the fact he managed to bring a couple of huge names with him in the transfer portal would have really stung. I would personally love to see a Trojans-Sooners game in the post-season, preferably in the College Football PlayOff, but there is a long road to run between Week 4 and the final selections.

All the USC Trojans can do is win the Pac-12 Conference and they may need to do that as an unbeaten team to be invited in, barring other big schools falling short of expectations. Lincoln Riley has become a Coach that has regularly guided teams to the PlayOff and he will know that the focus has to be on performing at their maximum in each passing week and the Trojans have looked strong.

The Trojans already have one Conference win under their belt, but this is another big test for them as they face the Oregon State Beavers (3-0) on the road. Jonathan Smith guided the Beavers to their first winning season in eight years when leading them to a 7-6 2021 season and the start made this season comes behind a team that is loaded with experience.

Over the next two weeks we will learn plenty about Oregon State as they face the top two teams from the Pac-12 South and it looks like Smith has made sure the cupboard is far from bare despite losing some key Offensive skill players. The powerful Offensive Line will feel they can open holes for any Running Back and the Beavers have produced some big numbers on the ground and I expect them to have success against the USC Defensive Line allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Staying in front of the chains will mean the Beavers are not going to be dealing with the fierce USC pass rush, while Chance Nolan continues to produce strong numbers from the Quarter Back position. As long as the Beavers remain in third and manageable spots, Nolan and company should be able to make the throws against the Secondary to keep the chains moving and try and stay with the Trojans on the scoreboard.

And it will be about staying with the USC Offensive unit who are averaging over 50 points per game and who have crushed the Stanford Cardinal on the road. Bringing in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back from the Oklahoma Sooners has been huge for the Trojans and he has been very good at looking after the ball as well as producing the big numbers.

Caleb Williams has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the Beavers Secondary, although there are holes to exploit too with what has to be the best Receiving corps in the Pac-12. The options for the Quarter Back are very dangerous and it may mean teams are bring in more Defensive Backs to slow down the Trojans, but that is not an easy decision when you think of how well the USC Offensive Line is playing.

The expectation is that the Trojans can continue dominating at the line of scrimmage and they should be able to pound the ball with a lot of success against this Beavers Defensive Line.

Both teams should have success moving the ball, but you have to have a little more belief in the Trojans who have the talent to win a National Championship. USC are also playing with revenge after being beaten by 18 points at home by the Oregon State Beavers last season and this is a team who are 7-0 against the spread when playing a Conference opponent with revenge, as long as that opponent is coming in off a straight up win in which they covered the spread.

It is the situation here in Corvallis, although Oregon State have to be respected for going 8-1 against the spread in their last nine at home.

In some ways this line feels like a trap, but I do think the USC Trojans are the superior team with the Offensive talent they have.

A blow out is unlikely, but the line is below a key number and I think that gives USC the opportunity to win a second road game in the Pac-12 and also cover. The Trojans have been good to me early in this season and I think they can be backed here to win a high-scoring game in which their Secondary makes one more play than the Oregon State one.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 19.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 17 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 23.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Washington Huskies - 13 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Joe Joyce vs Joseph Parker (September 24th)

Father Time remains unbeaten in all sports and this is a week in which Roger Federer announced that he will retire from Tennis as his body has finally begun to break down.

Serena Williams is another fading legend who called time on her career earlier this month, but both are playing tennis and the latter days of a player's career are hard to watch, but not nearly like what Boxing fans have to endure.

I hate the Muhammad Ali-Larry Holmes fight and have never taken the time to sit down and watch that in full as the faded 'Greatest of All Time' was badly advised to take the fight against a much younger and fresher Champion.

Last weekend was not that level of one-sided beating that should never be allowed to be seen again, but Gennady Golovkin is clearly a long way down the other side of the mountain after reaching his peak level. He was not really competitive against Canelo Alvarez as the trilogy between these two came to a conclusion and, much like Ali, I think his toughness will end up working against him if he decides to continue his career much longer.

Retirement is a personal decision and Gennady Golovkin may still feel he has something to offer at the Middleweight limit where he is still holding Belts to be called a World Champion, but the Kazakhstan future Hall of Famer has nothing left to prove. He should have had a win over Canelo on his resume, but you cannot go back and fix that now and I am not sure there is much point carrying on rather than finishing off as a World Champion as Golovkin can if he calls time on his career now.

A fight against Erislandy Lara has been touted and I do think that is one where Gennady Golovkin will have a real chance to go out with a win against another veteran, while unlikely to ship the kind of punishment that the likes of Jermall Charlo could dish out.

I just don't want Golovkin to go on too long now- he is set from a financial perspective and there is nothing much for him to prove, while unlike legends from most other sports, Father Time in Boxing can have long-term consequences for fighters that no fan of the sport would want to see.

There is a big weekend of fights coming up, although at a level below the very elite in the Division, Shakur Stevenson apart.

The two cards in the United Kingdom look exciting, although it is a shame they are being run on the same night, while Shakur Stevenson will end his Super Featherweight time on Friday in the United States.

Last week saw the Picks go 1-2 and earn a very slight profit, but I am still looking for a better win-loss ratio to end the 2022 year of Boxing selections.

Shakur Stevenson vs Robson Conceicao

Losing World Titles on the scale is never ideal, but Shakur Stevenson has long felt his time at the Super Featherweight limit was coming to a close.

In an ideal world he would have become Undisputed at 130 pounds before moving up into the loaded Lightweight Division, but the American was not quite able to get the other World Champions into the ring.

However, the win over Oscar Valdez has meant most consider Stevenson as the man in this Division and there will be a lot of interest in him as he moves alongside the likes of Devin Haney, Vasyl Lomachenko, Gervonta Davis and Isaac Cruz.

There are some big fights ahead, but Shakur Stevenson cannot overlook Robson Conceicao even after losing his Belts on the scale. People will question how much he has drained himself to try and even make the 130 pound limit, while a defeat here will knock some of the superstar shine that has begun to build on Shakur Stevenson so this is a massive fight for him, even now.

I do think he will be too slick and clever for Robson Conceicao who is a solid fighter, but one who lacks the punch power that may be needed to try and take Shakur Stevenson out of his comfort zone.

The Brazilian was pretty handily beaten on the cards by Oscar Valdez in his sole professional loss, but he has a decent amateur background and Robson Conceicao may feel he has nothing to lose by taking this fight to Shakur Stevenson.

My concern is that the Robson Conceicao could lose interest in trying to win the fight if he has not been able to make a dent early and even Shakur Stevenson has admitted that his bouts can be a little 'boring' when he coasts towards the finish. I do think he has been advised to turn on the style when in control and he has made a more concerted effort to try and get rid of opponents without going to the cards and my feeling is that he will be approaching this one in the same way.

His natural size advantage may come into play now he has decided not to shift the remaining pounds to get into the 130 limit, although Robson Conceicao looks a pretty durable character. Taking nothing away from the Challenger, Shakur Stevenson may just have enough sharpness to find a way to get this done late on and I do think a small interest is warranted on that happening.

Since the win over Jeremia Nakathila, when Shakur Stevenson was critical of his own performance, the American has pushed ahead and stopped Jamel Herring and almost managed to d the same against a very tough Oscar Valdez. I expect Stevenson to sit on his punches in the second half of this one when it feels it is firmly under control and he may show enough for the referee to step in and call off the assault before the move into the Lightweight Division.

There are some decent prospects on the undercard of this Friday night offering, but the most exciting has to be Keyshawn Davis.

At 23 years old, Davis looks like he could become a major star with the expectation he will fill out and move up the Divisions from the 135 pound limit he is currently operating within.

The comparison has been made with Terence Crawford and Keyshawn Davis is trained under the same umbrella. There is much to like about the way he goes about his 'business' in the ring and a lethal finisher could steal the show on Friday.

Four of his five wins have come inside the distance and he won't have to look too hard to find veteran Omar Tienda Bahena who at 34 years old is looking for a career defining upset. The Mexican has only been Stopped once before, and he has won seven in a row, but Bahena has not really faced this level of opponent and that should show up here.

Keyshawn Davis should have been out in July, but instead has had five months between fights due to an illness. He has spoken about getting one more bout in before the end of the year and then stepping up his level of opponent in the coming twelve months, and I think Davis can keep that plan in place by making sure this fight is over before the halfway mark.

You can never dismiss the toughness of a Mexican, but Keyshawn Davis hits very hard for the weight and standing in front of him could be a very bad mistake.

Maxi Hughes vs Kid Galahad

The Matchroom card on DAZN was expected to be topped by Leigh Wood vs Mauricio Lara in what looked like being a barnstormer of a fight, but injury to Wood has postponed that bout to another date.

Instead Maxi Hughes vs Kid Galahad has been promoted into the main event spot and the IBO World Lightweight Title is on the line. The IBO trinket is perhaps not the main draw of the fight, but Kid Galahad is coming up in weight and the winner of this one may earn themselves a strong IBF Ranking by the end of the contest.

The last time we saw Galahad was ten months ago when he was blitzed by Kiko Martinez having seemingly been in complete control of that fight. A huge punch put him down hard at the end of the Fifth Round, and Kid Galahad was clearly not right coming out for the Sixth Round as he was Stopped after a further six seconds.

Moving up two weights is going to be a challenge for Kid Galahad, but the expectation is that he will be stronger for the extra pounds he can carry and he is the favourite against Maxi Hughes.

All credit has to be given to Maxi Hughes who has won six in a row since his defeat to Liam Walsh in 2019 and being an underdog is not something that will bother a boxer who is overachieving to get to this stage of his career. Most would have expected his career to be over after that defeat in 2019, but Hughes has upset the odds a number of times to produce the six wins in a row and he will feel he is the naturally bigger fighter in the ring.

I expect Hughes to try and impose that on Kid Galahad, but I do think the latter is the better boxer.

He should be better having looked drained to make Super Featherweight, while Galahad has shown enough in his career to think he was just caught with an almost perfect punch from a hard hitting Kiko Martinez. Maxi Hughes has not really shown he has that same power with just five stoppages in his career and I think Kid Galahad can make a big statement of his intent in this Division on Saturday.

This is a crossroads fight for Kid Galahad, but he is only a couple of fights removed from breaking down Jezza Dickens and I think he can do something similar in this one. Maxi Hughes has been stopped twice before and I believe a slick Galahad can begin to sit on his punches in the second half of this Title fight and he looks a big price to earn a stoppage victory.

There is a deep undercard to back up the main event and there are a couple of fights of interest when it comes to the Boxing Picks.

First up is Hannah Rankin's defence of her World Title against Terri Harper who is coming up a couple of weight classes as she looks to become a two weight World Champion.

Her Knock Out defeat to Alycia Baumgardner was a real eye-opener, and I do think this is a considerable rise in weight, although it has not always been a big issue in the women's side of the sport.

Terri Harper is fortunate to also have been given a Draw when facing Natasha Jonas and now has to face a confident Hannah Rankin who has been in with the likes of Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall. The defeats to arguably the two best pound for pound boxers on this side of the sport are nothing to be overly concerned about and Hannah Rankin is experienced and confident at the weight.

The Scot has recovered from the loss to Marshall to win three in a row and I do think the layers are underestimating her chances of winning this bout too. I simply am not that high on Terri Harper and I do think the comfort of fighting at the Light Middleweight limit gives Rankin enough of an edge to earn the upset.

She did earn a Stoppage in her last fight and the way Terri Harper was hurt at the lower weights has to be a major concern, so I think a small interest on the Champion to hold onto her Titles is the play at a big price.

Joe Joyce vs Joseph Parker

Take away Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury and there are a host of Heavyweight contenders jockeying to position themselves as the next contender for World Title honours.

Ring Magazine has Joe Joyce and Joseph Parker Ranked in their current top six and the Interim WBO World Title will be on the line when they choose to meet on Saturday.

Joe Joyce is unbeaten, but at 37 years old it does feel like time is very much not on his side.

At 30 years old Joseph Parker is a former World Champion who gave up his Title in passive style when losing to Anthony Joshua in 2018. He suffered another defeat later in the same year when going down to a Unanimous Decision defeat to Dillian Whyte in what was a back and forth battle, but Parker has reinvented himself under the guidance of Andy Lee and has won six in a row.

The last two have been wins over Dereck Chisora after partnering with Lee and I do think there is something left in the tank. However, Joseph Parker is going to have to find a way to stop the Juggernaut and this has proven too difficult for fourteen other men of which thirteen have not made it to the final bell.

Sometimes you can watch Joe Joyce and believe he is going to struggle when he steps up his level of competition- he ships plenty of punches, but the chin has been unbreakable so far, although in this one Joe Joyce is going to have to deal with speed as well as some pop.

I think early on Joseph Parker is going to be a real threat, but he is unlikely to deter Joe Joyce from coming forward and the big question for the New Zealander is how he can handle the older fighter if his own power has not stopped the Juggernaut continuing to push forward. It broke down Daniel Dubois, although Joyce's performance against Christian Hammer was less impressive back in July.

Shaking off the ring rust is important and I do think Joe Joyce is going to make Parker work a lot more than most Heavyweights are used to doing.

As impressive as Joseph Parker was in his win over Dereck Chisora in December, I do think there are some questions for him to answer- he was once in the same boat as Joe Joyce as being able to rely on a solid chin, but in more recent times those defences have been breached by both Chisora and Dillian Whyte who have been able to put Parker down.

Assuming Joe Joyce's chin is able to stand up to Joseph Parker's early power and speed, I do think the British fighter can wear down someone who is comfortable fighting in Manchester. Joe Joyce may even be the one with fewer support on the night, but I don't think that will bother him and he can do what he has become famous for and that is to break down his opponent who perhaps loses some faith when their own punches are not having the desired effect.

Joseph Parker is a tough Kiwi and stopping him will be far from easy, but this is a chance for Joe Joyce to really make a statement and a small interest on a second half stoppage for the unbeaten boxer at a big price looks the play.

This card is being put together by Queensberry and Boxxer and that has enabled them to have a decent undercard for the main event in Manchester.

Arguably the biggest name on the undercard is Amanda Serrano who has dropped back down to Featherweight as she returns to the ring for the first time since losing narrowly to Katie Taylor at Lightweight.

Both of those boxers have spoken about a rematch, but for now Amanda Serrano looks to Unify the Featherweight Division. She is taking on an unbeaten Sarah Mahfoud, but this is a big step up for the Danish fighter who has never fought outside of her own country.

Amanda Serrano hits plenty hard and she forces Stoppages early in fights, even in the two minute Round setting, and I do think she bounces back from her loss to Katie Taylor with a stylish performance in front of the British fans.

Clamour will only increase for a rematch with Taylor with an impressive win and I do think Amanda Serrano can earn that with an early night.

Mark Heffron will have a relative homecoming as the new British Super Middleweight and Commonwealth Middleweight Champion following a hugely impressive win over Lennox Clarke in July.

He is facing a rugged Argentinian, but I think the match up is one that gives Heffron a chance to just show off his new found form at this weight and secure an early win.

There is a very good fight at the Welterweight limit as the British and Commonwealth Belts are on the line and it is one which could go back and forth between Ekow Essuman and Samuel Antwi.

Both have shown a solid level, but Essuman looks to be peaking at 33 years old and can find a stoppage in this one as 'The Engine' wears down a tough opponent.

MY PICKS: Shakur Stevenson to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Keyshawn Davis to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kid Galahad to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Hannah Rankin to Win @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Joe Joyce to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Amanda Serrano to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mark Heffron to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Ekow Essuman to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 29-49, + 13.91 Units (140 Units Staked, + 9.94% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 24th)

Last week was a pretty tough one for the Tennis Picks, but the season results are still in good shape going into the final two months of the 2018 Tour.

There are a number of tournaments beginning on Monday this week too, although the biggest event looks to be the WTA Wuhan event. On Monday my Tennis Picks are focusing on that event and you can see the selections I have made below.

I should be creating fuller threads for the Tennis Picks through the rest of the week, but for Monday it is the selections only being posted.

MY PICKS: Bernarda Pera - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 27.18 Units (1499 Units Staked, + 1.81% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2016 (September 24th)

I can't believe we have already reached Week 4 of the College Football season.

This week I am going to simply put up the picks I have from the games to be played through Saturday as I've just come back from my trip to the West Coast of the United States. Week 5's thread will be back to the usual breakdowns of the picks and why I have made them.

The last two weeks have been tough with little luck and poor picks mixed in to make it a poor start to the season. Hopefully I can begin to get that turned around in Week 4.

MY PICKS: Mississippi Rebels - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 8 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 3 Points @ 1.87 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Season 2016: 14-16, - 2.97 Units (30 Units Staked, - 9.9% Yield)

Season 2015: 87-77-2, + 2.77 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1.67% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (September 24-26)

I am only just back from Los Angeles and Las Vegas so the threads this weekend will all be shortened and should be back to normal from the middle of next week.


Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: It has been a difficult week for Jose Mourinho, but he would have been relieved his Manchester United team avoided any upset in the English Football League Cup when beating Northampton Town during the week. This is another big test for Manchester United having lost back to back Premier League games and it might also be a big test of the Mourinho character as he tries to solve the Wayne Rooney conundrum.

Rooney has been a player on the decline for a few years which has been papered over by some poor performances from those around him. However he is looking to be the problem more and more and Mourinho has to see what the fans have been seeing for years and the same thing the media chooses to ignore.

The England captain is terrible in possession and the only passes he can make with confidence are usually from his own half and going back towards his own goal. His presence in the team is making it harder for Paul Pogba to flourish and Rooney has to be dropped.

Otherwise another poor performance from Rooney will result in another potentially damaging loss against an improving Leicester City who are now comfortable playing with the tag of Champions. They are not as strong at the back, but Leicester City have shown they do have goals in the side and I can see this live Saturday lunchtime kick off perhaps being one of the more entertaining ones of the weekend.

Both games last season ended with both teams scoring and the same occurred in the Community Shield with a winner being found by Manchester United. I do think both teams will likely hit the back of the net in this one too, but once again I will be looking for a winner and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between the two clubs.


Bournemouth v Everton Pick: This is another Premier League game which looks like it could produce a few chances at both ends and I am looking for Bournemouth and Everton to share three goals between them.

There will be plenty of attacking play in the game and I think both managers are going to expect a reaction to poor exits in the English Football League Cup that both suffered during the week.

Everton have shown they have got some goals in the side, while Bournemouth are more than capable in front of their own fans. If Romelu Lukaku misses out it would be a blow to Everton, but I think he will play and this feels like a game that might end up 2-1 either way.


Middlesbrough v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The loss of Harry Kane is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur, but the England international has not exactly been in the best of form and I don't think his team will miss too many beats.

I certainly think they can still go to Middlesbrough and come away with the three points as Aitor Karanka tries to get more attacking threat from his side. The home side won't be an easy out for any team at the Riverside Stadium, but a team like Tottenham Hotspur have shown they can win on their travels under Mauricio Pochettino.

At odds against, I do think Tottenham Hotspur can make the odds count and I will back them to win.


Swansea City v Manchester City Pick: If anyone saw the Swansea City Premier League game against Chelsea, there has to be some trepidation in the home team ranks as to what might happen on Saturday. Yes, Swansea City earned a 2-2 draw with Chelsea, but they could have been 0-4 down by half time and a team like Manchester City are playing well enough to take the chances if they come their way.

I do think Francesco Guidolin is on the verge of being let go and the players might have given up playing for him.

With Sergio Aguero back, I think Manchester City will be too strong and I am going to back them to not only win, but win by a margin bigger than on Wednesday night.

MY PICKS: Manchester United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September Update: 33-22-1, + 26.82 Units (103 Units Staked, + 26.03% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Week 3 Picks 2015 (September 24-28)

The Thursday Night Football schedule means there is little turnaround from week to week in the NFL and the games are spread over three days which means there isn't a lot of time for some of these players to recover from their bumps and bruises.

Injuries have been a real feature of the new season with big names looking like they will be missing plenty of time on the field and so affecting their teams chances of making the Play Offs.

My Week 2 Recap is up and includes comments about the Dallas Cowboys, Chip Kelly, the New England Patriots, Drew Brees, my pick for the 0-2 team that is in the best place to recover and make the Play Offs as well as the usual Power Rankings. You can read that here.

Week 3 Picks

It was the expected bounce back week for Vegas as highlighted by the Survivor Pools that were being played- ESPN noted that the top six picks for the straight up win all lost last week including the New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens who were all favoured by 5.5 points or more on the spread.

Fortunately I missed the majority of the big spreads except the Colts and that defeat meant it was a small loss in Week 2 having gone into the last two games ahead. The Seattle Seahawks blew a Fourth Quarter lead again to miss their cover and then the Colts were pretty terrible in their home loss to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football to drop the picks into the losing column for Week 2.

It could have been a lot worse having missed out on the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, so I am alright with the season total still in the black.

As I mentioned last week, going forward the Thursday Night Football pick, if I have one, will be up first with the rest of the week picks out in the next couple of days. I will keep them in this one thread though so check back before Sunday to see where I am going this week.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: This has suddenly become a really big NFC East game in a Division that has opened up thanks to the injuries the Dallas Cowboys have picked up in the first two weeks of the season. Losing the likes of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo for a number of weeks will give the rest of the Division a lot of hope they can peg back the 2-0 Cowboys, although the New York Giants are in the more desperate position of the two teams playing on Thursday Night Football.

The Giants are 0-2, but they would be 2-0 if anyone on the coaching staff had ever paid attention to kids that play Madden on a console with clock management being the main reason they have lost to the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons. Fortunately for Tom Coughlin, the Giants are far from done and they are favoured to beat the Washington Redskins in Week 3.

Washington are 1-1 thanks to a very good win over the St Louis Rams who were coming in off a stunning upset of the Seattle Seahawks having come from behind to win in Overtime. The Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins was ugly, but Matt Jones came together with Alfred Morris in Week 2 to dominate the Rams vaunted front seven.

Jones and Morris will be given the ball to try and keep the Redskins in third and manageable for Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Offense. After two weeks when they were in a good spot to run the ball, they take on the New York Giants who have excelled against the run and get Jon Beason back to improve the Linebacker unit.

Restricting the Dallas Cowboys behind that impressive Offensive Line to just 3.5 yards per carry and keeping Washington in third and long will give the Giants every chance to get off the field. That is me talking about a lack of faith in Cousins at Quarter Back who is never too far from a couple of big errors, although he won't have to worry about a pass rush or going against a Secondary that has played that well.

One of the more surprising aspects of the early NFL season is how well the Washington Redskins have done Defensively, although this is clearly the biggest test they would have faced in the early part of the season. The Giants have actually moved the ball effectively enough when running the ball, but the Offensive Line is banged up and it might be up to Eli Manning to open up the running game by throwing the ball effectively.

He has been able to hit Odell Beckham, although the continuing absence of Victor Cruz has to be a worry for the Giants. There are some decent targets that the Giants still have, but they have to cut out the mistakes that have blighted them in the early going.

Like many teams in the NFC East, Washington have excelled as the road underdog, but they have lost and failed to cover in their last four games against the New York Giants. I also think New York have been close enough to coming into this game 2-0 and they would have been perhaps as many as three points bigger on the spread, while I am not sold on the Washington Defense because they've played well against St Louis and Miami.

The Giants have gone 9-4-1 against the spread when off a loss as the favourite, while Washington are 3-8 against the spread when trying to back up a win as the underdog. I think New York are in a desperate spot to get back into the NFC East and I like them to come through and make it five in a row straight up and against the spread versus the Washington Redskins.

There is no doubt the sharp money is going on the Washington Redskins which has seen the spread shrink to the key number of three points, but I like the New York Giants to get out of their own way and put the first win on the board in the 2015 season and will back them to cover on Thursday Night Football. It very possibly shortens even more up to kick off, but I will lock it in here.


Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When Tony Romo went down with an injury to take away the biggest piece of the Dallas Cowboys Offense and join Dez Bryant on the sidelines, I did think the Atlanta Falcons were going to be the right side to back.

Let's fact facts, who in their right mind would trust Brandon Weeden as a Quarter Back after he struggled in relief last season? The Cowboys did trade for Matt Cassel this week from the Buffalo Bills, but that had more to do with the fact that Dallas were the only team to come into the season with two Quarter Backs prior to the injury to Romo.

There is no doubting that this is Weeden's team for the foreseeable future and I actually have had time to break this game down and believe the Dallas Cowboys are the right side to back.

Dallas are coming off two wins in Divisional games which means they could be set for a let down, but there are reasons to believe in the Cowboys. Atlanta might have a few issues to contend with as they have struggled to run the ball and have lost Tevin Coleman for this game.

Julio Jones is also banged up, although he will be a surprising scratch, and the Atlanta Offensive Line hasn't protected Matt Ryan as well as they would like to have done. Dallas' Defense might have looked like a potential weakness at the beginning of the season but they have played very well with Sean Lee back leading the way at Linebacker and I think the Cowboys Defense steps up their play in this one to another level.

The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread as the home favourite and Weeden still has some weapons on the Offensive side of the ball to attack a Secondary that is allowing over 315 yards per game through their first two games. I imagine Jason Garrett leans on the Offensive Line and tries to establish a strong running game, which has been missing early in the season, and that should give Weeden a chance to be playing out of third and short.

And how about this statistic- over the past five years, teams playing their first game without their starting Quarter Back cover around 65% of the time. Teams will tend to really rally around the back up Quarter Back and I think Dallas will do that too so they are worth a small interest in this one with the point and a half being given to them. A chance to fade the public is a bonus too after the first two weeks Vegas have had so Dallas do look the call.

I can't go bigger than a single unit because it is Brandon Freaking Weeden at Quarter Back and I wouldn't trust him to avoid the big turnovers that have blighted him through his NFL career. If Jason Witten is ruled out on Sunday this spread might even increase by a couple of points, but I will lock it in here.


Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is the second season in a row the Indianapolis Colts have opened the season 0-2 so the fan base can't panic at the moment. The AFC South is one of the weaker Divisions outside of the Colts and I imagine Indianapolis will get back into Play Off contention unless the discord between General Manager Ryan Grigson and Head Coach Chuck Pegano is deeper than anyone thinks.

It was a similar level of discord at the San Francisco 49ers last season that eventually saw Jim Harbaugh leave the franchise after a disappointing season. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Pegano move on at the end of this season, he will be hoping that it isn't because Indianapolis have failed to get out of the hole they are currently in.

Pegano wasn't too kind about Andrew Luck in the wake of the Monday Night Football loss to the New York Jets, but Luck has dominated the Division and I think he bounces back this week. The Colts are 13-3-2 against the spread in Divisional games since Luck was picked Number 1 in the Draft and they are 6-0-1 against the spread as the road favourite in those Divisional games.

Last season they went into Week 3 0-2 and Indianapolis crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road and I truly don't think Tennessee are that much improved from last season or much better than Jacksonville were a year ago.

Marcus Mariota sparked them in the first game and they Defense hasn't really been tested having faced Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel in the first two games. The Titans should be able to control Frank Gore and get pressure on Andrew Luck, but the Quarter Back and the Offense made some big errors in Week 2 and I don't think that happens again.

While the headlines have all been about the pressure the Offensive Line have allowed to come onto Luck, Indianapolis did find ways to get to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and they will be able to put pressure on rookie Mariota too. Indianapolis have played the run well and I think Luck outduels Mariota here to put his team on the board.

The Colts are now 6-1-1 against the spread when coming off a loss as the favourite, have dominated games against Divisional rivals since Andrew Luck has come in as Quarter Back. Tennessee are 0-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against teams from the AFC South, while they are 1-6-1 against the spread when set as an underdog of three points or fewer over the last two seasons.


New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Drew Brees was officially ruled out on Friday and the public have been pounding the Carolina Panthers to cover the bigger line against the New Orleans Saints who are 0-2 and looking for Luke McCown to hold the team together in the absence of Brees.

There remain some doubts about Brees and whether he is going to have a future in New Orleans beyond this season and now he misses his first game in his NFL career. The problem for Brees is that no one will really know how long he is going to have to sit for the Saints and New Orleans could easily be out of the Play Off picture if they lose this weekend to their Divisional rivals who are 2-0.

Carolina have shown how a team can overcome injuries to win their first couple of games despite some Offensive inconsistencies. It might be a chance for them to put together their best performance on that side of the ball as Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton should both find some big running lanes against this Defensive Line.

The Saints haven't got a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back and they have struggled to get off the field in a similar manner to last season which should give the Panthers confidence in avenging their home loss from 2014.

Am I backing Carolina to cover though? No, I think the Saints can rally behind their back up Quarter Back and cover with this large amount of points behind them.

The media might only have had it confirmed on Friday that Drew Brees is out, but the rumours were there since last Sunday and Sean Payton would have had McCown preparing all week. He would love to get some support from Mark Ingram in the running game, while the Offensive Line has struggled, but this is a spot where McCown has performed in the past.

In 2007, McCown came in for an injured Jeff Garcia and threw for over 300 yards and 2 Touchdowns in a NFC South Divisional game although ironically that was against the New Orleans Saints for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I already mentioned the high covering rate for teams in their first game without their starting Quarter Back, while the Carolina Offense has struggled for consistency and can't be called upon to cover a big number.

The fact McCown's one and pretty much only big performance in the NFL came in relief for a starting Quarter Back is enough to think he can lead the Saints to the cover in a spot that should see a 0-2 squad rally to the cover at the least. It's another one unit play because it's Luke McCown under Center after all!


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets Pick: You just have to love it when there is a huge overreaction that sees a spread make a huge move on the basis of two weeks of football.

Don't misunderstand me, I can't deny the Philadelphia Eagles have looked pretty terrible while the New York Jets have looked better than advertised, but this is not the best of spot for the latter who are being pounded by the public to cover 'just two points'.

Coming off Monday Night Football is difficult, but the New York Jets are now playing a non-Conference game prior to facing the Miami Dolphins in a Divisional battle. That alone might make this a bad spot, but the fact that game is going to be played in London is another distraction and the favourites go 3-8 against the spread the week prior to the International Series game in England.

DeMarco Murray might miss out for the Eagles who have had two disappointing games in the first couple of weeks of the season and Sam Bradford has to find a way to get going behind an Offensive Line that will be challenged by a very strong New York Jets Defensive Line. However, the Jets might miss Darrelle Revis this week which should open up some passing lanes.

On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick has done just enough to make sure the Jets are 2-0, although he will be missing Eric Decker this week. Brandon Marshall should collect his numbers, but the Eagles have been pretty stout against the run and forcing Fitzpatrick to throw from third and long doesn't usually end well for his teams.

It just strikes me as a game that might not feature a lot of points and the Jets are 1-6 against the spread coming off a win as the underdog like they had on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer under Chip Kelly and they can't look ahead to the big game with the Washington Redskins next week. With the distraction of London and the Jets overachieving in their first two games, I think a small interest on the underdog Philadelphia Eagles has to be worth backing.

All the money seems to be on the Jets this week in this game and fading the overreacting public looks the play.


Tampa Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was a very big win for rookie Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the SuperDome last week, but backing that up might be difficult in a non-Conference game on the road.

Take a look at the spot- Tampa Bay have had a road game against a Divisional rival, this game and then they host NFC South rivals Carolina next week. A team that was sloppy against the Tennessee Titans from the AFC South in the opening week can't be overly trusted in my opinion to have the ability to repeat their big win from Week 2.

Winston is going to have some ups and downs in his rookie season and now faces a Defensive Line that can put the fear of God into any Quarter Back. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line hasn't been that effective in protection and Winston does have the tendency to hold onto the ball a little too long from his time at the Florida State Seminoles so might have the likes of JJ Watt, Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney in his face in this one.

It is not like Winston is going to have Doug Martin picking up huge chunks of yardage on the ground and might be in third and long a little too often for his liking. With Mike Evans still a little banged up and Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been ruled out for a few weeks so Winston might not have a lot of places to throw the ball with the expectation Jonathan Joseph will be on Vincent Jackson for much of the afternoon.

Lovie Smith may look at his Defense to propel them to victory and they should have some success in this one. Ryan Mallett just hasn't looked comfortable at Quarter Back and makes too many bad decisions, while the Offensive Line will be under pressure from the pass rush led by Jacquies Smith.

DeAndre Hopkins could be missing so Houston are missing a key piece of their Receiving corps and the continued absence of Arian Foster is a concern with the likes of Alfred Blue not getting it done. That might have something to do with the Offensive Line issues, so Houston will need Mallett to be at his absolute best if they are going to reverse their 0-2 start.

The game could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewer mistakes and Ryan Mallett doesn't have that much more game time experience than Jameis Winston at this level. However, I love the spot for the Houston Texans who are desperate to get out of their 0-2 hole and facing a team who are off a big Divisional road win and facing another Divisional rival next week.

It just feels a natural spot for Winston and the Buccaneers to have a step back in their performance and there is a statistic I read that shows 0-2 teams are 19-10 against the spread when favoured by six points or higher. I think the Texans find a way to get this done and back in contention in the weak AFC South and cover the spread too.


San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It isn't an ideal position for the San Diego Chargers to be playing back to back road games at the 1pm kick off time, although Mike McCoy has had them playing well in that spot. This is a non-Conference game though and I think the Chargers might have a tough time to stay with the Minnesota Vikings who are off a very impressive home win over the Detroit Lions.

The Chargers have had a hard time slowing down teams who want to run the ball against them over the first couple of weeks of the season and that doesn't bode well for them heading to Minnesota. That is because Adrian Peterson looked close to his best last week when trampling the Detroit Lions, although he needs to get the fumbling issues back under control.

Peterson helped the Minnesota Vikings wrack up 378 yards on the ground when they last hosted the San Diego Chargers in 2007 and he will be licking his chops at this match up. The Chargers have allowed 122 yards per game on the ground at 4.7 yards per carry and I expect Norv Turner to dial up Peterson's number early and often and he should keep the Offense chugging along.

It will help Teddy Bridgewater whose Offensive Line was a lot better last week than in the opening game at the San Francisco 49ers. That was partly because Peterson was given the ball and picking up large chunks on the ground and I expect a similar game plan to come to the fore in this one.

San Diego should also be able to run the ball effectively through Melvin Gordon and that will be what they need to do to make sure Philip Rivers is not under pressure behind this Offensive Line. If they can establish the run, Rivers is good enough to move the chains from third and manageable even without Antonio Gates and that is a key for the San Diego Chargers.

It is tough back to back road games though and the Chargers were 0-2 against the spread in that spot last season. I think Minnesota might have rediscovered their Offensive identity last week and I believe they are a better team than San Diego which makes the spread look a little out of sync here.

The public and the sharps seem to be on the Chargers, but I am going the other way and I think the Minnesota Vikings win and cover.


San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I have picked the Arizona Cardinals to win and cover in their first two games of the season because I have felt they are under-rated and this is not the time to get off the bandwagon.

The San Francisco 49ers are not the force of the last few seasons, but this is still a big game for the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer has never beaten the San Francisco 49ers so it is a big game for him personally, while this is a NFC West game that are always that little bit more important for teams.

This is a weaker San Francisco team than in recent years as I have said and they have been decimated Defensively. After a strong performance to open the season against the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco were torn apart by the Pittsburgh Steelers through the air and Palmer with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Juron Brown and Michael Floyd will be confident of doing the same.

I can't imagine there will be a lot of room for either Chris Johnson or David Johnson running the ball, but Arizona might not need to do that too much until later in the game when they want to control the clock. San Francisco didn't get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger last week and Palmer has been very comfortable behind his Offensive Line and should have his way with this Secondary.

That puts the pressure on Colin Kaepernick to find some consistency from the Offense before they are down by three scores like last week. Carlos Hyde will be back, but Arizona haven't conceded too much on the ground and it might be down to Kaepernick to throw the ball to keep them in the team.

While there are some decent Receivers here, San Francisco's Offensive Line has struggled in protection and Kaepernick could be under some pressure. The Arizona Secondary have given away some yards as teams try to keep up with the Cardinals Offense, but they are better than what the statistics show and I like Arizona to create a couple of turnovers in this one.

The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread when set as the road underdog in a Divisional game in recent years while Bruce Arians has inspired his team to 8-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite. This has become a very, very tough team to visit and Arizona are also 5-0 against the spread when favoured by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

I like the Cardinals to get it done and cover what might be a big number at first glance, even if it means being on the same side as the public in this one.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills were put in their place by the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now they have a big AFC East game at the Miami Dolphins. With two teams in this Division already at 2-0, these two 1-1 teams will be desperate to avoid being dropped into the basement in what was seen as a promising season prior to kick off.

The Bills have gone 4-2 in the last six games against the Miami Dolphins although they were beaten here last season. Can they bounce back in this underdog spot? I certainly think it is a big possibility despite being a Dolphins fan.

One of the big issues against the Dolphins this season has been an awful Defensive Line performance which has seen them struggle to stop the run. The reports about Ndamukong Suh going rouge is troublesome considering the money paid to him and the Dolphins have been hammered on the ground which is exactly what Suh was supposed to help.

Now they face a run first Offense who have gained almost 5 yards per carry and should have LeSean McCoy ready to go. Tyrod Taylor didn't escape the big mistakes last week which has to be a concern, but he can run the ball and Miami might have some trouble stopping Buffalo rolling in this one, while Dan Carpenter won't miss too many kicks against his former team.

A lack of pressure up front thanks to the discord between the Defensive Line and Defensive Co-Ordinator Kevin Coyle hasn't helped Miami get to the Quarter Back and Cameron Wake remains banged up.

I am also expecting the Bills Defense to rebound after being picked apart by Tom Brady and the Patriots this season. They should be able to because Ryan Tannehill and the Offense here is simply not at that level and it is a big test for the fourth year Quarter Back.

It is very unlikely that Tannehill gets much support from the running game and that means the Bills will see him in third and long and allow this pass rush to get at him. They have given up a lot of yards through the air, but Andrew Luck and Tom Brady can do that to you and the Bills are better than the statistics show on that front. Luck was under siege in Week 1 and only improved the numbers in garbage time, and Tannehill might feel the rush for much of the afternoon.

The Dolphins are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite in a Divisional game, while they are 7-12 against the spread as the favourite of three points or fewer in recent years. I mentioned a statistic I had read previously which shows teams are 3-8 against the spread when favoured the week before a game in London.

Miami are also just 2-6 against the spread following a loss as the favourite and Buffalo are 6-4 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer. The money being pounded on the Bills without the spread being moved suggests this is another heavily backed public team, but I like Buffalo with the points on the road.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There are a couple of emotional aspects at play on Monday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs somehow try and pick themselves up from blowing a late lead to lose to the Denver Broncos. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers picked up a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 and you know that was a game they were heavily invested in and had to win.

The spot might have favoured the Kansas City Chiefs in the last couple of years as the Packers are going to San Francisco next week, but Green Bay are looking to make Lambeau Field a fortress no one wants to visit and the 49ers are no longer the big NFC threat they have been.

Eddie Lacy might not be available, even if he was back in limited fashion on Friday, but James Starks can spell him effectively. Let's face facts though, this team is all about Aaron Rodgers and he has played lights out at home and will have his success against a Secondary that couldn't contain a faded Peyton Manning.

Manning beat the Chiefs with his mind and a late, efficient drive, but Rodgers will give them that for 60 minutes and it is hard to believe the Packers are going to score their points.

It comes down to what the Kansas City Chiefs can do against them and Jamaal Charles might rebound from a crucial fumble that gave the Broncos the win last week. Charles will have seen the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears produce effective ground games and he will have his chance both rushing and receiving out of the backfield.

Matt Forte had a big game against Green Bay and Charles can follow suit while also giving Alex Smith third and manageable conversions to pick up. Smith is still someone who perhaps manages the game more than being able to win it, but the Offensive Line hasn't helped him and Green Bay can get effective pressure on the Quarter Back.

The turnover battle is always key too and Rodgers has simply not turned the ball over at home, while the same is unlikely to be said of Smith. Green Bay are 30-14-1 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years and they are 7-1-1 in that spot since the beginning of the 2014 season.

I respect the fact that Andy Reid inspires his team as a road underdog, Kansas City going 7-3 against the spread in that spot since he took over as Head Coach, but this is a team that is 4-7 against the spread when coming in off a loss as the favourite. Green Bay simply aren't making mistakes at home and while Monday Night Football sees the favourite getting pounded, I think the Packers are the first favourites to cover in the final game of the week.

MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Betway (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 9-7-1, + 4.75 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units