The 1972 Miami Dolphins normally have to wait a little longer before they can crack out the champagne and celebrate being the only team that finished with an unbeaten season for another year, but the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles fell in Week 5.
This is the first time in eleven years that there has not been an unbeaten team through five weeks of the NFL season and there is a real feeling that very little is separating a number of teams at the top of the mountain.
The Eagles have a very good record, but have far from impressed, while the Buffalo Bills have not exactly had the toughest of schedules.
Out of all of the teams, the likes of the Detroit Lions have perhaps impressed the most, but we have already seen the huge impact that injuries can have on any team at any time.
It has felt like a season when more injuries have been at play- the Baltimore Ravens look a shell of themselves with the Defensive unit banged up and Lamar Jackson out with a hamstring issue- and there does feel like vacuum to be filled at the top. The likes of the Eagles and Bills should still have enough about them to reach the post-season, but it is Washington, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis who are perhaps looking sharper right now.
That also means an opportunity for the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs to fight through the early issues they are having after being dropped to 2-3 with a defeat on Monday Night Football. The AFC really does look weaker without the Ravens operating near to their best and the Chiefs looking like they have taken a backwards step and that could open the door to a team like the Denver Broncos to surprisingly come through the pack.
However, we are only just entering Week 6 and so much Football is still to play before we can think about Playoffs and potential Super Bowl Champions.
There are some who believe that any time a Pick goes down the wrong way that the system has been rigged against them, but it's never the case.
In saying that, it does not mean I was not hugely frustrated with the shenanigans in the Arizona Cardinals game last week.
Having a Running Back drop the ball just before crossing the line for a Touchdown to prevent the Cardinals from leading 28-6 in the Fourth Quarter is one thing, but then to have a player earn an Interception only to Fumble the ball, have a team-mate kick the ball back inside his own End Zone and then give up the recovery to the Titans for another Touchdown meant an epic fourteen point swing in the most foolish of fashions.
Instead of being what looked a comfortable cover twice, the Cardinals managed to shoot themselves in the foot for long enough to lose outright.
Adding to the Miami Dolphins inability to make a Fourth Quarter stop, two potential winners turned out moving in the wrong direction and it has continued what has been a relatively slow start to the season.
Of course there is plenty of time to move the margins back in the right direction for the NFL Picks as the pages search for another winning season from the sport, but starting sooner than later is the ambition and that begins with the Week 6 selections.
Those will be added to the thread across the next few days, beginning with another Thursday Night Football selection from the NFC East.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: As one of two teams who lost their unbeaten record in Week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) are looking to bounce back on a short week when travelling to the Divisional rivals the New York Giants (1-4).
The loss to the Denver Broncos felt like it has been coming for a while and the Eagles will want to get back on the horse immediately. None of the performances this season have been a complete four Quarter success for the Eagles, but the talent has allowed them to make some big plays at key times to help the team win even when not at their best.
Head Coach Nick Sirianni will not want to panic, but the will want to see the Eagles put a strong game on the board before having something of a mini-break before heading back out in Week 7.
Running the ball more efficiently has to be the focus for the team to help them get back to basics, but it has been a slog so far this season. The Offensive Line has not been able to stay healthy, which doesn't help, and Landon Dickerson will be a big miss, although it should not take too much for Saquon Barkley to find the motivation needed to face his former team.
You have to expect the Eagles can have success running the ball against this Giants Defensive Line, although it may be another day when they struggle for consistency in moving the ball through the Running Back.
Jalen Hurts can take the ball and make some gains with his legs, but the Wide Receivers have not been completely on board with some of the play-calling and the Eagles have made a real effort to get the passing game going. AJ Brown had a big outing in Week 5, although he was not able to haul in the Hail Mary pass that would have kept the Eagles unbeaten.
There have been signs of improvement in the passing game and Jalen Hurts is not expected to be under the same pass rush pressure against this Giants team that have struggled to get to the Quarter Back. In the main the Secondary has still been able to hold up, but this Eagles team will give the New York Giants a significant test, even if they have yet to show the form that took them to the Super Bowl.
Injuries have been an issue for the Giants on the Offensive side of the ball, but they are expected to have success running the ball and especially if Jalen Carter is ruled out for the Eagles.
One of the disappointments early this season has been the play at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball and teams have continued to run the ball efficiently against the Eagles, which should be the case on Thursday Night Football as long as this game is close.
The problem for the Giants is that the Quarter Back has yet to force teams to respect him, whether that is Russell Wilson or Jaxson Dart operating behind Center. The Giants have beaten the Los Angeles Chargers with Dart at Quarter Back, but they were blown out by the struggling New Orleans Saints in Week 5 and the Eagles could sell out to stop the run and force New York to beat them through the air.
It really doesn't help that Malik Nabers is out and Darius Slayton could also be absent for the Giants, which will take away some key Receivers for Jaxson Dart. The Eagles have not really gotten the pass rush ramped up, but Jaxson Dart may not be able to make much use of the time he may be given against this solid Philadelphia Secondary.
Interceptions could be a problem for the young, inexperience Quarter Back in this primetime spot and the short week of preparation certainly does not favour the Giants.
Last year the Giants struggled when facing Divisional rivals and they have already been beaten by the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles ended with six wins in seven games against NFC East rivals in 2024 and they have already added to that here and they can bounce back from a Week 5 defeat.
Nick Sirianni does not have a good record when trying to pick his team up from a loss, but the Eagles should still be much stronger than the New York Giants. The spread is one that allows a backdoor cover to be in play, but the Giants have struggled for consistency Offensively and it may see the road team pull away for a double digit win to maintain control of the Division.
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos Pick: The second of three games to be played in London in the NFL will kick off the Sunday action in Week 6.
When the six teams were announced for the London games it was something of a disappointment and the New York Jets (0-5) have been as poor as some feared. They have had a couple of competitive losses in the early tenure of Head Coach Aaron Glenn, but the last couple of defeats to the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys have been really bad and the team are already on course to finish with the Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft as the only one that has yet to win a game this season.
The hope for the Jets is that they can produce better playing outside of the United States, but they were beaten at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by the Minnesota Vikings in 2024.
This year they are facing the Denver Broncos (3-2) who are heading to London after upsetting the defending Champions Philadelphia Eagles on the road. With Divisional rivals Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers both losing in Week 5, the Broncos are tied for the best record in the AFC West and they have been set as significant favourites.
Denver are expected to be a well balanced team when they have the ball- the Offensive Line have been key in helping JK Dobbins establish the run and they will have seen the successes that the Dolphins and Cowboys have had when pounding the rock against the New York Jets Defensive Line. Head Coach Sean Payton is always keen to establish the run and the Broncos should be in a position to make Bo Nix's life pretty comfortable when the young Quarter Back is stepping back to throw the ball.
Respect has to be given to some of the personnel that the Jets have on the Defensive unit, but they have had a tough time in the Secondary with the team trying to send more men to the Line of Scrimmage to try and stop the run. The Denver Broncos have a good Receiving corps to find spaces down the field and that should mean Bo Nix is able to make plenty of plays with his arm, especially with what is going to be mainly a clean pocket from which to throw.
In what has been a tough season, one of the positives has to be the way the Jets have been able to run the ball with dual-threat Quarter Back Justin Fields and Breece Hall both performing well on the ground. However, this Broncos Defensive Line have prided themselves on being able to locate runners very quickly and it may be one of the tougher days for the Jets.
Justin Fields will try and extend plays where he can, but his Offensive Line have offered very little time as they have struggled to stop the pass rush. This is an area that the Broncos are expected to have a huge edge and rushing Fields could lead to stalled drives, although credit has to be given to the Quarter Back for not throwing into troubled spots.
However, trying to make plays with the pocket collapsing and pass rushers swiping at the ball can lead to Fumbles and the Broncos should win the turnover battle.
Any extra possessions could see Denver pull clear of the New York Jets- the latter have only lost two of the five games by more than 6 points, but the Jets have simply not seen a Defensive unit as good as the one they are facing in London.
Backing up big wins is not always easy, but the Denver Broncos should have the balance Offensively to do what they like for much of the afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There was a time when the Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1) would have been seen as the top team in the NFC East, but they are chasing the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. Credit has to be given to the team for not feeling sorry for themselves as injuries have piled up and the crushing win over the New York Jets in Week 5 keeps the Cowboys in touch with the two leading teams in the Division.
Games against Divisional rivals are going to be tough, but the Dallas Cowboys have other games on the schedule which look winnable and that includes this one in Week 6.
The Carolina Panthers (2-3) found a way to rally a couple of different times in the Fourth Quarter of the win over the Miami Dolphins.
They can thank Rico Dowdle for a monster performance against the Dolphins and the former Dallas Cowboy will be looking to punish the team for allowing him to leave. It has been possible to run the ball against this Dallas Defensive Line and so it could be another very good day for Rico Dowdle as he looks to put the Panthers in a position to have success.
It will mean needing Bryce Young to build on the momentum from the Week 5 win over the Dolphins and he should have a chance to do that when you think of the numbers that this Dallas Secondary have been giving up. They have not been able to generate much pressure and so Carolina are going to be a position to at least keep the scoreboard ticking over, which will give them a chance for the home upset.
However, it may not be enough to keep the scoreboard simply ticking over and the Panthers could be forced to go Touchdown for Touchdown in this one if the Dallas Cowboys continue from where they have left off in each of the last two weeks.
Dak Prescott may not have Ceedee Lamb, but it has not slowed this passing game, while Javonte Williams is playing at an exceptional level and underlying the reason Rico Dowdle was allowed to leave.
In recent games the Panthers Defensive Line have been stronger against the run, but containing Williams behind this Dallas Offensive Line will not be easy.
And if the Quarter Back is playing in front of the chains, the Dallas Cowboys should be able to keep the ball moving and ultimately make this a game where the pressure will be on Bryce Young to put a consistent performance together.
Turnovers are likely to be key in a game where both teams will be confident with the ball in hand, but Dallas have been playing with a bit more confidence and that can show up here.
They have beaten Carolina three times in a row between 2021 and 2024 and Dallas can keep that streak going, while covering this line set.
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: These two were both involved in late plays that determined the outcome of their Week 5 games- the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) made a mistake that saw them lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) were able to score a Touchdown late in the win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The home team will be heading over to London for the annual trip next week, but they will be keen to keep up with the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South before travelling.
There have been positives about this Jaguars team, which is not a surprise considering they are 4-1, but the record does feel a little flattering. They are going to be tested by a Seattle team that could easily have the same record as the Jaguars if not for a late turnover that cost them a defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5, and the Seahawks have looked pretty confident on both sides of the ball.
One of the key factors on the Defensive side of the ball is the play of the Linemen and the Seattle Seahawks have been able to shut down the run all season. They will be expected to do the same against a Jacksonville team that have had some issues on the ground in recent games and that will mean the pressure is on the shoulders of Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence.
Some have wondered if Lawrence would ever reach the level that people expected from him, but he is doing what is needed to keep the chains moving. He is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game across the last three games, but Trevor Lawrence may find a few more spaces to exploit against this Seattle Secondary with the connection to Brian Thomas Jr looking stronger as the Wide Receiver gets up to speed.
That should help the Jaguars, but it is tough to continue to throw with success from behind the marker and that may be the case if the run is not something operating with any consistency.
Jacksonville will still feel they can have some success against this Seahawks Defensive unit, but the same will be said when Sam Darnold trots onto the field with the Seattle Offense.
Unlike the Jaguars, the Seahawks should have more success to find some balance in their Offensive game-plan and that is because there have been a few more holes that have opened up against the Jacksonville Defensive Line. Kenneth Walker III had a big day against the Buccaneers impressive Defensive Line last week and he can pick up from that performance against this Jaguars team that have been allowing 5 yards per carry in recent games.
This can only be good news for Sam Darnold who will be attacking a Secondary that has given up plenty of yards.
The Quarter Back is building up a good connection with his Receivers and Sam Darnold has been given plenty of protection by his Offensive Line, which should lead to another big performance. He will have to be aware that this Jaguars Secondary have given up yards by taking risks, but those have also led to the team picking up Interceptions to turn the momentum and Darnold will have to be careful.
If he can, Sam Darnold should be able to put up enough points to help the road team win this pick 'em contest, especially with the Jaguars perhaps thinking about the game in London next week. The Jaguars are also playing on a short week, which is never easy, and Seattle can bounce back from the disappointing defeat in Week 5 by getting back on the horse immediately.
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Losing is never fun, but the fans attending the Week 5 game at M&T Bank Stadium made it clear how disappointed they were in the effort of the Baltimore Ravens (1-4). Injuries are a big factor, but the fans will have wanted those coming in to really put in a top effort instead of what they saw as Baltimore were beaten by 34 points against the Houston Texans.
The Defensive unit has been ravaged by injury, but it is the hamstring injury suffered by Lamar Jackson that really feels like a season changing blow. Cooper Rush comes in as the backup Quarter Back, and has experience doing so, but he showed in Week 5 that he is not Lamar Jackson and the team are already chasing in the AFC North.
One positive for the Ravens is that they are playing in what looks a weak Division, while the other is that they are entering the Bye Week after this game.
First off the Ravens do have to deal with the Los Angeles Rams (3-2) who last played on Thursday Night Football and so have had a mini-Bye to prepare for this game before they travel to London for a Week 7 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In usual circumstances, the Rams Defensive Line would be expecting a tough day in the office as they prepared to face a dual-threat Quarter Back who has a running mate in Derrick Henry to pound the rock. The Baltimore Offensive Line have opened up some decent holes for the ground and pound game, but that task looks very difficult without Jackson and especially not against a Los Angeles Defensive Line that that has been built to stop the run and been doing that pretty effectively this season.
The Rams have also generated a solid pass rush and the pressure is on the Ravens Offensive Line to give Cooper Rush time- the Quarter Back does not have the scrambling ability of Lamar Jackson to move away from the pressure and that will stall the passing game.
Los Angeles have allowed teams to have some success throwing against them, but keeping Baltimore in third and long and then unleashing the pass rush against the backup Quarter Back should stall drives. Avoiding mistakes and giving up short fields has to be a big ambition for Cooper Rush and the entire Baltimore Offense in this game, but it could be tough to put up a lot of points.
It means relying on the Defensive unit to contain the Rams for long enough to give the home team a chance to win.
However, this is a unit that has been hit really hard by injury and it feels like Sean McVay could have a fun day calling the plays.
The Ravens Defensive Line have not been able to stop the run and that is only music to the ears of the Los Angeles Rams as they look to keep the team in front of the chains. A couple of solid Running Backs have been piling up the yards on the ground and the Rams may pick up from where Nick Chubb left off in this one.
Matthew Stafford is likely to be operating in a relatively clean pocket and he can find his Receivers down the field out of the play-action that will be working really well if the Rams are running the ball as expected.
This should all add up to the Rams being very comfortable when they do have the ball in their hands and Los Angeles could come away with a strong win.
Teams travelling across the country to play in an early time slot is never easy, but the Rams should have won in Philadelphia in the same spot. They have won at Tennessee before that and they can continue their move East with a win in Baltimore, a cover of this mark and the momentum to take to London for the game at Wembley Stadium next Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: All credit has to be given to the San Francisco 49ers (4-1) for overcoming a huge amount of injuries and beating rivals Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. They created a couple of big turnovers at key moments to turn the game in their favour, but this is another tough test for a team missing several key figures on both sides of the ball.
Mac Jones will be under Center for this game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) who had an improbable win over the Seattle Seahawks.
Like the 49ers, the Buccaneers are not allowing injury to let them make excuses and they look the team to beat in the NFC South again. There should not be any reason to be looking past a team with a 4-1 record, even with the Detroit Tigers on deck, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can get the better of another NFC West team.
Mike Evans has been missing, but that has not prevented the Buccaneers from continuing to keep the ball moving with rookie Emeka Egbuka leading the way. He can be very grateful to strong Quarter Back play from Baker Mayfield and this is another game in which the passing game should be working well considering the lack of pressure San Francisco are getting up front without Nick Bosa.
Bucky Irving is out and the Buccaneers have been inconsistent at running the ball, although the 49ers Defensive Line has not been the best at stopping the ground attack in recent games. They will believe they can beat this Offensive Line, but Tampa Bay will not shy away from looking to run the ball and it just keeps teams honest enough to allow Baker Mayfield to work.
Tampa Bay will feel they can dominate the Line of Scrimmage on the other side of the ball and that is where they may have the edge in this game.
Christian McCaffrey is still operating at a decent level, but he has been more of a factor in the passing game of late with the Offensive Line struggling to open up running lanes up front. The 49ers are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry in their last three games and they are not expected to get much change out of this Tampa Bay Defensive Line, which means it will be up to Mac Jones to make the plays needed to keep the chains moving.
To the credit of the 49ers, the passing game has actually been working pretty well with Kyle Shanahan and his Coaching staff finding a way to keep Defensive units off balance.
San Francisco have injuries in key Receiving positions, but players are stepping up and making plays and they should be able to do the same in Week 6. However, the Buccaneers Secondary have been in good form and they will feel they can do enough to take advantage of what may become a one-dimensional game that is being called by the road team and Tampa Bay can force a mistake or two in order to earn the victory.
The Buccaneers have lost four in a row in the series against this NFC rival, including a home loss last season. However, Tampa Bay have covered the spread in the last two against the San Francisco 49ers and this time they can do enough to be the one that comes out on top in this meeting of two 4-1 teams.
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: At the start of the season, this match up would have been right up amongst the leading selections from those predicting Super Bowl teams for next February.
Out of the two teams, the Detroit Lions (4-1) have impressed more than the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3).
Monday Night Football saw Kansas City lose at the Jacksonville Jaguars in dramatic fashion and there is a concern that something is not quite right with this team. The AFC in general still looks wide open and the Chiefs have not lost touch in the AFC West, but this is another tough game and the hosts look a vulnerable favourite.
Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and he does have a 16-10 record against the spread following a loss, although just 1-1 this season. He is trying to put the team on his back but Mahomes has some inconsistent Receivers, while injury and suspension has meant his biggest targets have been missing.
The legs have been key for Mahomes, but establishing the run will not be easy considering how well the Detroit Defensive Line have been playing. The Quarter Back can pick up yards on his own and the Kansas City Offensive Line have played well when asked to run block, while the Detroit Secondary are missing Terrion Arnold and so this is an opportunity for the hosts to have success.
It will be hard work though and certainly feels like it will be tougher than what the Detroit Lions will expect when they have the ball themselves.
The Running Back tandem continues to be a big factor for the Lions and they will have noted the huge amount of yards that the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed on the ground. Detroit will want to bully the Chiefs, while keeping Patrick Mahomes and company on the sidelines, and the Lions can certainly make sure Jared Goff is operating from third and manageable spots on the field.
Jared Goff has a few Receivers that are capable of making the plays he needs from them and the Lions should be able to keep things ticking over in this one.
This feels like another game in which turnovers are going to be massively important, but the Lions as the underdog have been strong to back under Dan Campbell. He has already led them to a win as the underdog in Baltimore before the injuries really hit the Ravens hard, and Detroit are 13-5 against the spread when being given points.
Sunday Night Football gives the Lions another chance to remind the nation of their qualities and they look worth backing with the start.
MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 7 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 13-13, - 1.24 Units (26 Units Staked, - 4.77% Yield)
