Super Bowl LII Pick- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 4th 2018)

Super Bowl LII- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL season has come and gone in the blink of an eye and we are down to the final two teams in the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles who meet in the Super Bowl in Minnesota on Sunday 4th February 2018.

It looks a good game on paper with enough intrigue to make the Super Bowl 'must watch' TV and not only for the commercials and half time show either.

The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles have come through the Play Offs in similar ways with one dominant win and one tough one that could have easily gone the other way.

For the Patriots it was an easy night in the Divisional Round as they dominated the Tennessee Titans after some early issues, while they were then having a few issues with the tough Defensive Jacksonville Jaguars who could so easily have won the AFC Championship Game.

The Philadelphia Eagles had it the other way around as they battled past the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round when holding them out as the Falcons threw into the End Zone for the win at the end of the Fourth Quarter. They then dominated the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game and the Philadelphia Eagles will not have worry about being the underdog in the Super Bowl having won both home Play Off Games as the underdog already.

That is going to inspire them in the Super Bowl as people failed to believe Nick Foles would be able to do enough to cover for the injured Carson Wentz. Some of that was down to two really average performances in the regular season and I am still not sure Nick Foles is going to be able to reach the level he did against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.

I was very impressed with the throws he made against a very strong Minnesota Defensive unit, but I also have to say that the Vikings produced their worst performance of the season on that side of the ball. The Vikings Defensive unit may be better than the one the New England Patriots have, but that performance in the NFC Championship Game was far below how well the Patriots can play and so Nick Foles has to expect a much tougher test of his ability in the Super Bowl.

Bill Belichick would have been studying the tape over the last couple of weeks and I think that is going to make a difference against Foles. Taking away one of the key contributors is going to be an issue for Foles as he may have to go through his progressions a little more, although a similar level to the one he produced against Minnesota would definitely give the Eagles plenty of chances to move the ball and score points against this New England Defensive unit.

Foles can have success in this one, but has to be aware of the pass rush that New England have been able to generate up front. So far the Eagles have been able to overcome the loss of Jason Peters and Lane Johnson remains as good as any Right Tackle in the NFL, but the Patriots will give them different looks up front to try and get to Foles and at least force him to get the ball out of his hands earlier than he would like.

It might be down to Foles to keep the chains moving as the Patriots continue to play the run effectively enough. However the likes of Jay Ajayi are able to come out of the Running Back spots to catch short passes and make some big plays in the open field so New England will have to make sure they are fully focused on tackling as well as they can.

The Quarter Back will take his shots against a good Secondary and I expect Foles to connect with some of the deep shots too. However the Patriots have some top playmakers in the Secondary and Foles has to be at his best to make sure he gives the Eagles the very best chance to win the big game.

Questions about Nick Foles' temperament have been raised throughout the last two weeks and we really won't know how he can handle the pressure until kick off. That is not the case with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots who are so used to playing in the last game of the season and the match up at the line of scrimmage is crucial for the Philadelphia Eagles to try and at least rattle the future Hall of Famer.

Philadelphia have the talent on the Defensive Line to get after Brady without sending more than four men after the Quarter Back and that is crucial to their chances of the upset. Throughout a stellar career we have seen Brady struggle when being put under pressure by four men and that has led to erratic performances, but his experience should mean he is at least able to make some big plays for the New England Patriots with a full complement of Receiving weapons available after Rob Gronkowski cleared the concussion protocol.

Like the Eagles, New England will likely lean on their Quarter Back more than running the ball against a tough Defensive Line. However, also like the Eagles, the Running Backs are very capable Receivers either lining up wide or coming from out of the backfield and Brady is more than happy to provide short passes that those Backs can catch and produce big plays in the open field.

There will be a respect for the Philadelphia Secondary who have played well and have some stellar talent in their ranks, but Brady will look to open them up with the short to mid-range passes which could see someone like Brandin Cooks break a big one. Mainly I expect Brady to rely on the short passing game to keep the chains moving and try and tire out a Philadelphia pass rush which could then see the Patriots take over this game.

Picking a winner is still tough though because I like the way the Eagles have been built and I honestly think they would win if they had Carson Wentz. As well as Nick Foles played against Minnesota, expecting that level again seems a stretch to me and I can see Bill Belichick finding the system to slow down the Eagles Offensively.

Seeing the New England Patriots as the public team has been the norm in recent years, but the public are firmly behind the Philadelphia Eagles as the underdog in this one. That has seen the point spread shrink to an acceptable level here and I do think the New England Patriots can use their superior Quarter Back play help them get the better of a Philadelphia team that may need the perfect performance from their back up Quarter Back to find a way to earn the upset.

Defensively they can slow the Patriots to some extent, but the no-huddle Tom Brady runs is likely to wear down the Eagles and it will all come down to whether Nick Foles can make the big plays on the other side of the ball. I expect Foles to make a few tough throws, but I expect Belichick makes the adjustments at half time to turn this game in the New England Patriots favour and I think they can win yet another Super Bowl and cover this number.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

College Football Week 1 Picks 2017 (August 26-September 4th)

It feels like only yesterday I was watching the National Championship Game and just like that College Football is back on our television screens with Week 1 just about to get underway.

You can't deny it is a strange Week 1 with the games spread out over two weekends and I am not entirely sure what the reasoning is behind that. Some teams, Hawaii for example, are actually playing twice in the time period, but essentially the next two weekends are all a part of the same stretch of games.

Unsurprisingly it is Alabama who come in as the favourites with defending Champions Clemson losing key starters from the team that won it all. The Crimson Tide are probably still wondering how they managed to lose the National Championship and most will be expecting them back in the Play Offs and likely making amends with better experience at the Quarter Back spot.

However Lane Kiffin has moved on as Offensive Co-Ordinator having been dropped from that role before the National Championship Game and the SEC continues to be one of the toughest Divisions to negotiate.

That may give teams like the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines and Florida State Seminoles to take advantage and I have no doubt how good this season is going to be. Quality teams around the nation will be desperate to make the College Football Play Offs and it will all begin over the next two weekends with some big non-Conference games set up for the fans to watch.

The NFL is also just two weekends away as we get set for six months of brilliant sporting drama.

The College Football Picks for Week 1 will all be collated here. I will have this post as the 'featured post' from Saturday 2nd September for the two days remaining of Week 1 and picks will be added throughout the week. 2016 proved to be a difficult season for the College Football Picks, but I am looking to bounce back in 2017 as I have the year after poor seasons previously.


South Florida Bulls @ San Jose State Spartans Pick: College Football is back on Saturday and this is a genuinely interesting game even though it is a non-Conference game. The South Florida Bulls have some big expectations in the comings season under new Head Coach Charlie Strong, while San Jose State Spartans also have a new Head Coach although mainly because they underachieved last season.

Strong comes in after a disappointing tenure with the Texas Longhorns and will be looking to rebuild his reputation as he takes over a team who have had a winning record in each of the last two seasons and South Florida finished 11-2 last season. Having 16 starters back from last season means plenty of experience and the Bulls only had a vacancy because Willie Taggart's success saw him offered the job with the Oregon Ducks.

There is room for improvement on an 11-2 record and that is by winning the American Athletic Conference as South Florida missed out on the Conference Title Game because of their loss to the Temple Owls, who did go on to win the Conference. The schedule also looks to be kind enough to give Strong every chance of heading up a team that runs the table and the goal for South Florida is to earn a spot in one of the big Bowl Games at the end of the season.

South Florida have 7 returning players on the Offense including Quarter Back Quinton Flowers, but matching the totals of last season is going to be a real test for them with their top Running Back and Wide Receiver from the 2016 season now playing in the NFL. Working with a new Offensive Line Coach makes things a little tougher for the Bulls too when it comes to match 2016's 43.8 points per game, but Flowers has the experience to guide them.

The Offensive Line will be key for the South Florida Bulls over the course of the season and they can get off to a good start against the San Jose State Spartans who have a new Head Coach in Brent Brennan who takes on this role for the first time in his career. The Spartans finished 4-8 last season for their third straight losing season, but they bring back 8 starters from the Defensive unit last season.

However this is a team that has struggled to stop the run in the last four seasons and the Bulls should be able to gain enough yards on the ground to open up the rest of their Offense. Brennan is going to be on a learning curve too and the first year under the new Head Coach has all the makings of a difficult one despite the returning starters on both sides of the ball.

Brennan will likely use more of his own recruits where possible and the Spartans are not really up to the level of the South Florida Bulls anyway. A lack of experience at Quarter Back could be an issue for San Jose State in 2017 and that certainly looks to be a problem for them in this opening game of the season against a South Florida Defensive unit that are expected to be significantly stronger than a season ago.

The Bulls are expected to field a Defensive Line that is able to shut down the run and that is going to put pressure on San Jose State especially as the Offensive Line is seen as a strength on that side of the ball. Whoever takes the ball under Center will be inexperienced and San Jose State struggling to run the ball will make life very difficult for the Quarter Back to have a lot of success in this one.

That is the way I feel this opening game will go for both teams with the South Florida Bulls having the better consistency with the ball in their hands. I will look for the Bulls Secondary to step up at key times and perhaps even help win the turnover battle and allow South Florida to pull away in the second half.

Charlie Strong's reputation may have taken a significant knock at Texas, but his teams have been decent at covering the spread as the road favourite and I will look for South Florida to win this by around twenty-seven points.


Stanford Cardinal @ Rice Owls Pick: The 2016 regular season ended in the same way as the 2017 season will open up for the Rice Owls and Stanford Cardinal. The only difference is this game will not be played in the United States, but the two College teams have been sent to Australia to open the season.

There is so much to like about Stanford who have not missed a beat with David Shaw as Head Coach who took over from Jim Harbaugh. The team won ten games in 2016 to win double digit amount of games for the fifth time in six years under Shaw as Head Coach. This year they have got 16 returning starters with 8 on both sides of the ball and that could make up for the loss of their two best players in Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas who have both been Drafted into the NFL.

Even with McCaffrey gone, the Offense looks like it may have more overall success than they did in 2016. They will be looking to establish the run with one of the stronger Offensive Lines in the nation and a Running Back in Bryce Love who has had experience playing for Stanford in relief of McCaffrey and also has produced some really strong yards per carry.

Stanford crushed Rice on the ground when they met at the end of 2016, but this time Rice feel they are much more experienced and will be stronger up front. That will be tested by Stanford who look like they will be able to run the ball effectively throughout the season, and could be the key to the entire outcome of this game.

David Bailiff is hoping the teething problems for the younger players in a 3-9 season will help Rice develop this season. There is plenty of experience here and Rice will be another team who will look to run the ball efficiently enough to open things up for Sam Glaesmann who is making his debut at Quarter Back for the Owls.

Anything other than a Stanford win will still be a surprise though and this is all about whether they have enough to cover what looks a big spread. With both teams looking to run the ball, the game may be a quicker one and that may mean Stanford are not given the time to really pull away by as many as people think they might.

The Owls have a Defensive unit that is returning 8 starters from 2016 and, like other units on the team, they do look stronger all around. Matching one of the best teams in the nation is going to be a huge challenge for them but Rice should be able to give themselves a chance to hang with Stanford for long enough to make the points count.

A long journey to Australia is a tough factor to weigh up, but neither should have much of an advantage there. Importantly Rice kept things close enough to get within this number when travelling to Stanford at the end of 2016 and having that much more experience should give Rice the chance to cover.

Rice have a decent record against the spread when facing non-Conference opponents and I think they will do enough here.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: They made the College Football Play Offs without winning their Conference last season, but there are even bigger expectations of the Ohio State Buckeyes coming into the 2017 season. Even Head Coach Urban Meyer has alluded to that by talking about the comfort going into the new season with 15 starters returning from the team that went 11-2 last season.

This time last year the Buckeyes were coming into the season with the least experienced team so having 8 starters back on the Offensive unit and 7 back on the Defensive unit is a huge boost for the team. It also means there is some pressure on Ohio State to bounce back from a humiliating College Football Play Off loss to the Clemson Tigers with the fans looking for another place in the final four.

The Big Ten East is a tough Division with the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines coming in with big expectations of their own. Even the Indiana Hoosiers are a team more than capable of playing spoiler, although they do have a new Head Coach in Tom Allen who is taking over a team that has not had a winning record since 2007.

Indiana have room for improvement Offensively with a team who have 6 starters returning and will Allen being an internal promotion it does mean that the systems are all the same for the players. Richard Lagow has plenty of experience at Quarter Back in his second season as the man under Center, but he has to avoid the Interceptions that blighted what would have been a good first year as the starting Quarter Back.

More important for Allen and the Hoosiers has to be the 9 returning starters on the Defensive side of the ball and this Indiana team do look capable of earning a winning record for the first time in a decade. There will be excitement for this opening game against the Ohio State Buckeyes, but that Defensive unit is in for a big test against a team that could be one of the strongest Offenses in the nation at this level.

If the Hoosiers Defensive Line can have a big game, they do have a chance against Ohio State, but the Offensive Line they face is as good as it gets. On the other side of the ball the Hoosiers are facing a really strong Defensive unit and all in all it does feel like the Buckeyes will be able to earn enough of an edge on both sides of the ball to pull away for the win.

A less experienced team could be a serious upset candidate, but that is not the case with the 2017 Buckeyes and I think they can win this one and cover the number. Ohio State have not been the best road favourite to back as they tend to be over-rated by the layers who know the money will come in, but this Buckeyes team looks to be one of the best in College Football and I think they can make a statement here.

There is also the added factor of Kevin Wilson- Wilson was fired at the end of the 2016 season as the Indiana Head Coach because of differences with the Athletic Director. He has since taken over as the Offensive Co-Ordinator of the Ohio State Buckeyes and his insight into a Hoosiers Defensive unit that has 9 starters returning should give the road team a significant edge in my opinion.

I don't doubt that Wilson will want to keep the scoreboard ticking over to make a point and his extra insight into the opposition is another reason I want to back the Ohio State Buckeyes to win and cover on the road.


New Mexico State Aggies @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Back to back losing seasons is not what was expected from the Arizona State Sun Devils, but the struggles of 2016 could reap rewards in 2017. Injuries meant a lot of players earned some experience in 2017 and having the chance to bring back 13 starters on both sides of the ball gives Head Coach Todd Graham every chance of producing a winning record.

His seat may be feeling a little warmer going into the season though and Arizona State are in the tough Pac-12 South Division which is expected to be headed up by the USC Trojans. However the problems of 2016 should mean the Sun Devils have plenty of depth to call upon, while they also have an experienced Quarter Back in Manny Wilkins compared with twelve months ago.

The Offensive unit is never really a concern for the Sun Devils and they are expected to be one of the top scoring teams again this time around. That will be tested immediately by the New Mexico State Aggies who may not have the best Defensive unit, but bring back 9 starters this time around and are expected to make big improvements from 2016.

Arizona State will look to establish the run against the tougher New Mexico State Defensive Line that is expected to take to the field in 2017. The problems for the Aggies will always be in the Secondary which has struggled to stop the pass which has been amongst the weakest in the nation in back to back years.

It would be a surprise if the Sun Devils were not able to put up around 40-50 points in this one at home, but the big question for them will be how much have they improved Defensively. Last year Todd Graham's Defensive unit gave up the most points in his time as Head Coach, but the injuries contributed to that and they are expected to be almost a Touchdown better in terms of points per game in 2017 compared with 2016.

The 7 returning Offensive starters for the Aggies will test that out though with New Mexico State being able to call upon some veterans who have plenty of experience. The key to this game could be how effectively New Mexico State are able to establish Larry Rose and the running game against what looks like a strong Arizona State Defensive Line.

I do think the Aggies will have some success with their Offense looking like it could be a decent one at the SBC level, but this is a big step up for them to do that consistently. Tyler Rogers is likely to end the season as the career passing record holder at New Mexico State, but Interceptions have been an issue for him. However Rogers should have some success against the Arizona State Secondary which struggled in 2015 and 2016 and who have lost some key players back there.

Arizona State are 17-9 against the spread as the home favourite under Graham's guidance while they have won their last eighteen home openers by 32 points per game. New Mexico State have not been a great road underdog to back under Head Coach Doug Martin and I think the home team from the Power 5 Conference can earn a big win after a close first half.

I will look for the Sun Devils to pull away far enough to cover this big number and get 2017 off to a positive start for Todd Graham.

MY PICKS: South Florida Bulls - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Rice Owls + 30.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

College Football Week 11 Picks 2015 (November 14)

I have avoided the midweek set of games in the College Football Week 11 because I really didn't like the games that were on offer. Plus I do tend to find those are games that play out in strange ways so often that I have to really like a pick before I think to get involved.

Week 10 was an up and down one for the picks that eventually landed on the wrong side, but the season totals remain strong and hopefully the last month can provide plenty more winners than losers.


The Play Off picture has really begun to clear up in College Football now and the number of teams who have genuine ambitions of reaching the final four have been reduced massively in the last two weeks. There are still a few unbeaten teams around, but the likes of the TCU Horned Frogs and LSU Tigers have suffered terrible losses in Week 10 that might end their hopes of reaching the Play Offs.

Last season we had a couple of one loss teams that were invited into the final four and I think that will be a similar case this time around, especially with the SEC likely to have a one loss Champion as is the likes of the Big 12 and Pac-12.

I still think the Big 12 lack of a Championship Game could be critical against them, but my current Play Off Rankings would be as follows:

1) Ohio State Buckeyes- they remain unbeaten, but now face a critical stretch as they have to run through Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and potentially an unbeaten Big Ten West Champion in Iowa.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide- proved to be the class of the SEC with a crushing win over the LSU Tigers and are now favourites to win that Conference.

3) Clemson Tigers- unbeaten, they look a legit team and likely to win the ACC while the 'committee' has them Ranked Number 1.

4) Baylor Bears- I still think the Bears can run the table in the Big 12 which would make them impossible to leave out.

Looking In- Notre Dame Fighting Irish, LSU Tigers, Utah Utes, Stanford Cardinal, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Oklahoma Sooners, Houston Cougars, Michigan State Spartans, TCU Horned Frogs.

Week 11 Picks

As I have mentioned, Week 10 went through some peaks and troughs for my picks and sadly eventually came out on the wrong side for the week. Games are getting more tense and competitive as we race towards the end of the regular season, but I have found myself a few picks for Week 11 which will hopefully restore the winning weeks.

Disappointingly it has been three losing weeks in a row now, but I have still got a healthy season total and that is the key.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: The North Carolina Tar Heels have the inside track to the ACC Coastal Division having beaten both Pittsburgh and Duke in the past couple of weeks, but both of these schools still might be able to get back in contention over the last month.

The game is far more critical for the Duke Blue Devils who are two games behind the Tar Heels and also lose out on the tie-breaker, while the Pittsburgh Panthers are just a game behind the Division leaders albeit with the tie-breaker going against them too.

I have little doubt this is going to be a close game, but getting a full Field Goal in favour of the road team, who have won each of the last two games in the series in the previous two years, looks very generous as far as I am concerned.

These teams have three common opponents and Pittsburgh have outgained two of those teams compared with Duke. The two losses in a row will have had an effect on the players of the Blue Devils too especially the manner of the blow out to North Carolina.

I do think Duke have the slightly more balanced Offense and the slightly better Defense, but I think the latter unit might have begun to wear down and I like the Panthers to keep this close. David Cutcliffe has done a wonderful job with the Blue Devils and made them a very solid home favourite to back, but I want the points in this one and will back the road team to perhaps even win this one outright.


Kansas Jayhawks @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: After losing to the Oklahoma State Cowboys which may have cost the TCU Horned Frogs a chance to reach the National Championship Play Off, usually this would be a spot where I would want nothing to do with them or a massive spread like this one.

However, it has to be noted that the Horned Frogs are a significantly better team at home than they have been on the road and they are playing a team that has taken some big beatings through the season. There is still an outside chance the Horned Frogs can get back in contention in the Big 12 too as they play Oklahoma and Baylor to close out the season so I can see Gary Patterson inspiring his team to a very big win at home this week.

Baylor, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have all beaten Kansas by at least 48 points each this season and TCU have covered the spread they have been asked to in three of four home games.

It won't be a blow out where Kansas don't score points as the TCU Secondary hasn't been at their best thanks to injuries and a high turnover from the unit last season. However, TCU are going to be able to move the chains with some big plays through the afternoon and should be able to take out their frustration on the Jayhawks.

TCU are 9-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season and Kansas are 6-14-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons. It is a lot of points but I think TCU can cover it with a fifty point win at home and build momentum for two big games left in the Big 12.


Texas Longhorns @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: There is an absolutely mammoth game in the Big 12 Conference this week, but I will get to that later on. Before all of that, I am looking at another Big 12 game as I like the West Virginia Mountaineers to get the better of the Texas Longhorns and cover the spread this week.

Last week I backed Texas Tech to keep things close here because I though they had the balanced Offense to do that, but it was a much lower scoring game than I anticipated to be perfectly honest. Both of these teams are two wins away from becoming Bowl eligible so it is a huge game with three left to play including this one.

I am liking West Virginia because Texas have been horrific on the road this season with all three losses coming by at least twenty-four points while the Offense has produced a wonderful tally of TEN points from those THREE road games.

There is little doubt that Texas can double that tally or even treble it in this one as they should be able to establish the run. However, inconsistent passing is a problem and their Longhorns Defense has been a little suspect at times. I fully expect West Virginia to have the better balance with the ball in the hands of their Offense and that should mean more consistent scoring.

My one real concern is that West Virginia have been a terrible home favourite to back under Dana Holgorsen, but the Longhorns are 0-3 against the spread as the road underdog since Charlie Strong took over. I will look for the Mountaineers to score enough points for a double digit win and extend that sequence for Coach Strong.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: It would be easy to suggest the Ohio State Buckeyes could overlook Illinois this week knowing that Michigan State and Michigan are left on the schedule. However, the Buckeyes have looked more and more focused as the weeks have gone on and the introduction of JT Barrett as the starting Quarter Back has seen the team cover in two straight wins.

Of course that was snapped by Barrett's brainless act of driving while under the influence which meant he was suspended from the win over Minnesota last week. However Urban Meyer has recognised what Barrett gives the team over Cardale Jones and he was restored as the starter this week.

The Buckeyes certainly aren't the best team to back as a road favourite under Meyer, but I think they make a statement this week to show the two Michigan based schools that they are ready for them. Barrett will certainly want to make amends for his mistakes and had led the team to back to back wins of 28 points or more prior to his suspension.

You can't just dismiss the threat Illinois have as they have played unbeaten Iowa close as well as the likes of Wisconsin and they will want to avenge a blow out loss to Ohio State last season. However, this is a Buckeyes Defensive unit that should be able to slow down the Fighting Illini and I do think Barrett will have a very big game as I have mentioned.

Ohio State have blown out Illinois in all three games under Meyer and the Fighting Illini's 38-0 loss in Penn State is hard to ignore. Big spread again, but I like the Buckeyes to get ready for their next two games behind a big win.


Maryland Terrapins @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: The Michigan State Spartans were controversially knocked off the unbeaten ranks last week in Nebraska thanks to what has looked a blown call. There was still time for the Cornhuskers to win that game if the right call had been made, but it wasn't and the Spartans have to feel aggrieved.

Aggrieved, but certainly not down and out.

Michigan State can still win the Big Ten Conference if they win their remaining three games and then the Championship Game and I imagine Mark Dantonio has used last week's injustice to spark his team. They do face a Maryland team that has been competitive in the wake of Randy Edsall's firing as Head Coach and that should be another reason Michigan State focus on the task at hand rather than looking ahead to the game with Ohio State next week.

I do think both teams will have success moving the chains, but the key is that Michigan State's Defensive unit seems to match up better with Maryland's Offensive schemes than the other way around. That should lead to enough stops to cover a number that the Spartans have struggled with all season barring a win over the Indiana Hoosiers thanks to some late turnovers.

Maryland have covered four games in a row and Michigan State have been a bad team to back all season when it comes to cashing at the window. However, I think their motivation to make up for the controversy of last week as well as still being in contention in the Big Ten produces one of their better performances of the season.

The Terrapins continue to be a solid road underdog to back as they have improved to 11-5 against the spread in that spot... But I can't ignore the motivation the Spartans have and the way they match on both sides of the ball in this one so will take the home team for a rare cover this season. Michigan State have gone 3-1 against the spread after their first loss the previous four years and they are 8-4 against the spread off a straight up loss in recent seasons.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: The inside track to the SEC Championship Game belongs to the Alabama Crimson Tide after they beat the LSU Tigers last week. Now they are looking to back up that win and make sure they don't allow the Tigers and the Mississippi Rebels back into things by dropping this game in Starkville.

The game against the Tigers has been a big one for Alabama in recent seasons and it doesn't surprise me that they have perhaps been a little over-rated the week after that win. That might be part of the reason Alabama have gone 0-3-1 against the spread in the last four seasons after playing LSU and this looks a fair few points to overcome on the road.

I can understand why people will back Alabama though- they looked dominant against LSU and have had six double digit wins over Mississippi State before last season. Even that five point win would have been much larger if the Bulldogs hadn't scored a meaningless TD as time was expiring.

Dak Prescott played well in that game for the most part and has had a strong season to think the backdoor cover would potentially be on in this game too. Mississippi State are also 6-3 against the spread as the home underdog while Alabama are just 3-6 against the spread as the road favourite.

This is a spot pick for me as Alabama have struggled after playing LSU and might just do enough to win this one. With Prescott playing very well, I will look for him to make enough plays at home to stay within this number.


Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The Michigan Wolverines would be going into this week as an unbeaten team barring one of the strangest plays in College Football all season in their loss to the Michigan State Spartans. However, they still have every chance of winning the Big Ten in Jim Harbaugh's first season as Head Coach and Michigan can ride their Defensive unit in the next couple of weeks to make sure their game with Ohio State is potentially a winner take all game.

That Defense was the key for the Wolverines in blowing out Rutgers last week which put to rest a couple of difficult weeks for the team. You can't just think they will shut down Indiana who have been effective at moving the chains against Ohio State and Michigan State while also being much better at home than on the road even though they have lost three in a row here.

None of those losses at home have been heavy defeats compared with their two on the road so the Hoosiers have to be expected to give Michigan things to think about. However, I think the Wolverines will find a way to slow them down on that side while having the balance Offensively to punish the Hoosiers Defensive unit.

This is the last home game for many of the Indiana players which means I am expecting a big effort from the players to go out on a high. A win will put them on the brink of becoming Bowl eligible for the first time since 2007 so you can't dismiss the motivation Indiana will have in this game.

My problem is I can't see them finding consistent success against what is arguably the best Defense in the Big Ten, while Michigan will be able to move the chains more readily. The Wolverines have been a poor road favourite in recent games, but I like them to find a way to get it done and cover a big number in Indiana.


Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: This has been a season of close losses for the Nebraska Cornhuskers, but last week they found themselves on the right side of a close game, albeit one dipped in controversy. That has given the Cornhuskers an outside chance of becoming Bowl eligible as they need to win their last two games and they can put in a big effort into this one knowing they go on a bye next week.

They are facing a Rutgers Scarlet Knights team that have been blown out three straight times, although they do get Leonte Carroo back against this porous Nebraska Secondary.

Rutgers had a similar run of losses last season before beating Indiana at home, but they have looked pretty bad Defensively all season. Nebraska have the personnel to exploit that and will certainly be able to score plenty of points, although they have to improve Defensively if they are going to get to six wins for the season.

There just seems to be more consistency on the side of the Cornhuskers and they can be motivated by their controversial win over Michigan State. It hasn't been the kind of season you have wanted to back the Cornhuskers as a favourite, but I expect them to win by at least ten on the road this week.


Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Idaho Vandals Pick: It is going to be tough for the Appalachian State Mountaineers to win the Sun Belt Conference but they are already Bowl eligible and will try to find a way to chase down the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

A loss to the Red Wolves last week has put the Mountaineers in a tough position to win the Conference, but I think they can bounce back against the Idaho Vandals.

The Vandals will look to their loss to the Georgia Southern Eagles as the blueprint to play the Mountaineers better, but they will find it difficult to stop Appalachian State scoring points in this one. That will put all the pressure on their own Offense to keep up and I think Idaho won't be able to do that effectively.

I would expect Appalachian State to move the ball both through the air and on the ground for most of the game. On the other hand, Idaho will have to rely on the pass if they are playing catch up which can lead to turnovers and give the Mountaineers the extra possessions to cover a big number.

Appalachian State are 3-0 against the spread as the road favourite this season and I think they match Georgia Southern's twenty plus point win here. Idaho will put together some scoring drives, but Appalachian State should be too consistent Offensively and pull away.


Memphis Tigers @ Houston Cougars Pick: The Houston Cougars might genuinely be thinking they could get into the final four Play Off if they can win the American Athletic Conference and remain unbeaten. The game against the Memphis Tigers looks a huge test for them even if the latter dropped a silly game against the Navy Midshipmen last week.

The Cougars have to be favourites to win the American Athletic West considering they host both Memphis and Navy, but I can't help think this is too many points to be giving to the Tigers.

Memphis have played the tougher games to this point and that makes them more battle hardened as far as I am concerned, while they know a win could give them every chance of winning the Division. The home loss to Navy is a bitter blow, but the Midshipmen are under-rated and Memphis should have more consistent success in this one.

Paxton Lynch looks to be a First Round Draft choice at Quarter Back and I think he will have a big game against this Houston Secondary. He has looked after the ball and I do believe Memphis will have success in what could be a shoot out. That is because Greg Ward has been playing well for Houston too and the Cougars might be the team with the better balance on Offense as Ward is effective with his legs too.

I do think Houston will have plenty of success throwing the ball against the Memphis Secondary and the team with the last possession could easily be driving to win the game. One thing I will say is that Houston shouldn't be seven point favourites in a game that could see both teams score plenty of points and Memphis will have a chance for a backdoor cover in this one.

Memphis also look to have a little more experience of dealing with truly big games and I will back the Tigers to give themselves a chance to get back into the American Athletic Conference hunt.


Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears Pick: The biggest game of the week comes in the Big 12 Conference as the Baylor Bears look to show they are more than a team that has taken advantage of a kind schedule. Art Briles felt disrespected last season when Baylor were not included in the Play Offs and his 'leave no doubt' philosophy this season has yet to pay dividends in the minds of the committee.

The last four games won't leave any doubt if Baylor can win all four and run the table in the loaded Big 12 and they would arguably be the favourites to win the National Championship if they can do that. First up is the Oklahoma Sooners who should be unbeaten barring a poor defeat to the Texas Longhorns.

The Sooners genuinely believe they have the Defensive unit to slow down Baylor for long enough to allow their own Offense to get onto the field and win this game. However, I am of the belief that this Baylor Defense is very under-rated with most of the props going to the Offensive side of the ball and the Sooners might be surprised.

I do think Oklahoma will have some success thanks to arguably the best Defensive unit in the Big 12, but it would be a big surprise to me if they can win this on the road. Baylor look very strong and I think they are the best team in the Big 12, while you can't ignore 20 straight home wins.

Baylor have won three of the last four against Oklahoma including the last two at home and they are 19-5 against the spread as the home favourite. No disrespect to the linemakers, but this spread looks far too low and I am liking Baylor to put together a win that will give them a lot of momentum to take into their remaining games against Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Panthers + 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 45 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs + 8 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 11 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers - 19 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 9: 3-6, - 3.29 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.56% Yield)
Week 8: 5-6, - 1.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.09% Yield)
Week 7: 11-3, + 7.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 50.71% Yield
Week 6: 8-5, + 2.49 Units (13 Units Staked, + 19.15% Yield)
Week 5: 6-7, - 1.50 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.54% Yield)
Week 4: 8-4-1, + 3.26 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.08% Yield)
Week 3: 6-4, + 1.57 Units (10 Units Staked, + 15.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-4-1, + 0.68 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.80% Yield)
Week 1: 7-6, + 0.48 Units (13 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield

Season 2015: 63-50-2, + 8.10 Units (115 Units Staked, + 7.04% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2014 (December 28th)

The majority of the Play Off places have been taken, but there are still some elements to clear up including Seeding in both Conferences as we reach the final week of the regular season. Last season saw Week 17 have a whole bunch of games that had Play Off implications, but that isn't the case this time around.

With the way that Christmas has landed this season, it does mean that the picks for the final week of the regular season are the only thing I have concentrated on, although there will be a few more minimum stake ones with a lot of meaningless games on offer.


Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: Any team that is going to be playing in the Wild Card Weekend of the Play Offs next week need to be second guessed as to whether they will give their starters enough time to win games this week. Week 17 doesn't really matter to either the Dallas Cowboys or the Washington Redskins in the grand scheme of things, but Jason Garrett seems determined to make sure the Cowboys keep winning going into the Play Offs and practice has seen the starters playing this week at their usual rep level.

It will be interesting to see how much Washington have left considering the effort they put into ruining the Philadelphia Eagles season and the likes of DeSean Jackson put in a huge emotional effort into that game. RG3 hasn't been consistent either this season and I wonder if he can back up a relatively good game that he produced last week.

Prior to that win over the Eagles, Washington had been a mess on both sides of the ball and while I do think they can have success against this Dallas Cowboys Defense, I also think Tony Romo, if given a full game or close to a full game, can really carve up the Secondary of the Redskins.

DeMarco Murray is unlikely to receive his usual level of carries out of the backfield, but Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle can establish the run and that should only mean Romo can make the plays downfield. Washington's Secondary is banged up and the Offensive Line hasn't had the best season protecting the Quarter Back which makes me believe Dallas can go into the Play Offs with another win behind them.

Dallas haven't been the greatest favourite to back, but they have an impressive 6-1 record against the spread on the road and they have been a team that has excelled at revenging a loss under Jason Garrett. When you consider Washington are just 2-5 against the spread at home this season and are coming off a hugely emotional win, I think the Cowboys can record an impressive win to take some confidence in their first Play Off appearance for a few seasons.


Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is a meaningless game for both teams, but I do think there is still something for the Indianapolis Colts to achieve by putting together a strong performance here and definitely more than the Tennessee Titans can achieve. The Colts are looking for some momentum to take into the Play Offs next weekend after being embarrassed by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, while Tennessee would likely hurt themselves by winning the game and ruining their place in the NFL Draft.

However, this is a Divisional game and players will have some pride to try and end their 9 game losing run and give the Tennessee fans something to enjoy. Unfortunately for the Titans, I just don't think they are a very good team and Charlie Whitehurst doesn't inspire at Quarter Back for them. He might make some plays against the Indianapolis Defense which has struggled at times this season, although mainly against the better teams in the NFL, but it is a big ask for the third string Quarter Back to win the game.

Without an effective running game, Whitehurst will be under immense pressure behind an Offensive Line that has been porous and it may be tough for Tennessee to do much Offensively having scored 31 points in their last three games combined.

Indianapolis' Offense was completely out of sync in their loss at Dallas, but the return of TY Hilton and facing this Tennessee Secondary should give Andrew Luck a real chance to get on the same page as his Receivers. Hilton's ability to stretch the field should open up the passing lanes for some of the other Receivers Indianapolis have and Luck should be able to carve up Tennessee in this game.

A concern would be how long Chuck Pegano decides to play his starters, but all the noise coming out of Indianapolis suggests he wants to put in a momentum earning performance. The Colts have been a decent favourite to back all season and they have continued to dominate their Divisional rivals who they own a 13-2 against the spread record since Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis.

The Titans have had additional time to prepare for this game but they are 3-9 against the spread as the underdog this season and they have dropped to 2-13 against the spread against Divisional rivals over the last three seasons. That includes a 0-5 against the spread record against them this season under Ken Whisenhunt and I like Indianapolis to cover.


San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Since the Alex Smith injury was revealed and it was stated that he would miss this game against the San Diego Chargers, the layers have chopped down the amount of points given to the road team although Kansas City remain a small favourite. That could be down to the fact that the Chiefs will put in a huge effort to ruin the San Diego season as well as the injury that Philip Rivers is dealing with, but I think the public underdog looks the right team to back.

Chase Daniel has 200 passing yards and 1 Touchdown in his Week 17 appearance against the San Diego Chargers last season and he will be fortunate to have both Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis at Running Back who could have some real success against this Defense.

Rivers will also need to deal with the very impressive Kansas City pass rush that should cause him some problems, but he has shown he is willing to take a hit and make the throws downfield. Like Daniel, Rivers will also be able to hand the ball to Brandon Oliver who should make some plays running the ball and this looks like a chance for Rivers to cement his place as one of the better Quarter Backs in the NFL.

The Chargers have won twice in a row at Arrowhead Stadium so this San Diego team should not be intimidated by having to come here and win to make the Play Offs and they are 3-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or fewer this season.

Over the last three seasons, Kansas City are a poor 1-4 against the spread as the home favourite of a Field Goal or less and San Diego have so much motivation behind them to win this game. While the Chiefs would love to spoil their Divisional rivals season, I can see Brandon Flowers making a huge play against his former team and giving the Chargers the sixth spot in the AFC Play Offs.


New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: After putting in a huge effort to try and derail the New England Patriots season and with a loved Head Coach already clearing his office in anticipation of being fired, the New York Jets might have too much to deal with from an emotional level to be able to compete in this final game of the season.

There is no doubt that the players in New York love playing for Ryan, so they might want to raise their game to give him a fitting farewell present, but the Jets really had to dig deep within themselves a week ago and I am not sure how much is left in the tank.

However, the Jets showed when they met the Miami Dolphins at home that their Offensive Line is capable of opening holes for the Running Backs to take advantage and I think Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson can continue doing that for them. It will make it easier for Geno Smith to make some plays too and prove he is capable of becoming the franchise Quarter Back that the Jets have been craving for a long time, although the Jets have to finish drives with Touchdowns and not Field Goals as they did against the Patriots and in the first game with Miami.

The Secondary of the Jets has been a problem, but that is not really where the Offense of the Miami Dolphins concentrate on attacking, unless down big as they were against the Vikings last week. Ryan Tannehill had some big numbers in that game, but this Jets Defensive Line will give him some issues and the short passes will be music to the ears of Ryan who can devise another strong game for his team.

New York have been good against the spread when trying to revenge a loss and the Dolphins are not a good favourite to back. I am restricting stakes because of the effort the Jets put in last week, but I will take the points.


Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: No one can really second guess Bill Belichick and what he wants to do as the Head Coach of the New England Patriots, but it would be something of a surprise if he decides to rest his starters and perhaps risk the team losing their rhythm ahead of the Play Offs. The bye and home field have been secured, but the Patriots weren't quite on the same page against the New York Jets last week and that could be a risk to go into the Play Offs without the Offense at least trying to put some points up.

This is a meaningless game against the Buffalo Bills who were knocked out of Play Off contention by losing at the Oakland Raiders last week. There has to be some real disappointment that the Bills couldn't give themselves a chance going into the final week of the season as the longest Play Off drought in the NFL continues for another year.

Marcel Dareus could be missing on the Defensive Line which may at least give Tom Brady a little more time to make his plays from the Quarter Back position and New England have dominated the Bills with 13 straight home wins against them.

Kyle Orton will get the chance for the Buffalo Bills despite some people calling for Doug Marrone to check what EJ Manuel has learned on the bench over the last couple of months. Orton is a limited Quarter Back and might not have much help on the ground in this one which means he is throwing against a Secondary that has been playing better and better as the season wore on.

The Bills have been a strong underdog to back this season, but New England will be looking for more momentum and I like the Patriots to cover. With the season already over for Buffalo, they might not have a full effort in the game and the Patriots could run away with this one as long as they keep the starters in for at least three quarters.


Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The NFC South will be won by a team with a losing record and that winner will be decided on Sunday afternoon with the Carolina Panthers visiting the Atlanta Falcons.

Both teams have actually been playing with some momentum in recent weeks and may feel they will have a 'winnable' Play Off game as they could potentially be hosting the Arizona Cardinals next week which makes this a very important game.

The Panthers have won 3 in a row and Atlanta have won all 5 Divisional games they have played, and they do have Julio Jones back fully healthy for this game.

I like Carolina with the points in this game because I do think they are about as healthy as they have been all season and Cam Newton showed no discomfort from the automobile accident he had a couple of weeks ago when playing last week. The Panthers have also found something of a pass rush in the absence of Greg Hardy and may put some pressure on Matt Ryan who isn't backed by a deep rushing Offense and is also missing Steven Jackson.

Ryan should still be able to hit the likes of Jones and Roddy White downfield, but I think the Panthers can control the clock with their power running game and keep the Falcons Offense on the sidelines. Running the ball effectively will also open things up for Newton to hit Greg Olson and Kelvin Benjamin up the field and the Panthers did win here outright last season.

It would have been a lot more fun getting the points from the start of the week, but even the three points being offered look like they could be productive and I will back Carolina in this game.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been incredible at home this season and haven't lost to the Detroit Lions here for over two decades and the expectation is that they prove too good again while winning the NFC North and earning a bye in the Play Offs next week.

While Detroit have struggled to run the ball this season, their Defensive Line has been very stout and the key for the Lions is getting Matt Stafford to play one of his better games on the road. Stafford hasn't been as effective on the road and it could be cold for a team that plays in the Dome, although Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are two Receivers that can win their battles.

However, Stafford has to be given time by the Offensive Line which is dealing with a Green Bay team that have changed where they line up the likes of Clay Matthews, which in turn has improved their ability to get to the Quarter Back.

Aaron Rodgers is likely to be under pressure too from the Detroit Defensive Line, particularly if his calf is still bothering him from last week. However, Rodgers has been very good at home and has the ability to move around in the pocket and allow his Receivers to get free and earn some big gains.

However, this is a Defense that has seen Rodgers often enough to know some of his tendencies and have given him some trouble in the past, although mainly back at Ford Field rather than at Lambeau. I can see the the Lions slow down Rodgers to keep him below the 41 points he is helping the Packers average at home this season, although I do think Green Bay still win the game.

That might only be by a Touchdown because Stafford should have success throwing the ball to his own Offensive weapons and I will take the points in this one.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The AFC North is up for grabs on Sunday Night Football and both the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have to feel they would have a better chance of progressing in the Play Offs by hosting a game next week rather than visiting the Indianapolis Colts.

That makes this an important game for both teams with the winner becoming the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and the loser getting ready to go on the road and I do think the Pittsburgh Steelers have a slight edge.

I'd always favour Ben Roethlisberger over Andy Dalton in a big game, even if that didn't work so well for me last week when picking Peyton Manning to beat Dalton in a primetime game. However, the Cincinnati Bengals had a huge game Defensively which was an exception to their general performance this season and I actually think the Steelers Offense is in a better place than Denver right now.

Big Ben should be able to hurt Cincinnati downfield if Le'Veon Bell tramples all over the Bengals as he did when the teams met in Cincinnati and Roethlisberger has a number of Offensive weapons that are capable of plenty of yards after a catch.

Jeremy Hill should have a solid game for the Bengals too as long as they don't get away from the run too early, although he will need AJ Green's presence just to keep the Steelers honest. However, I don't think I am ready to trust Dalton to make the big throws under pressure with so much on the line and that is where the Steelers could force a turnover that allows them to win this game.

One concern is the very good 6-1 record against the spread that Cincinnati have as the underdog this season, although they haven't been that good at trying to avenge a loss. The Steelers are notoriously one of the worst favourites to back too, especially as a fairly big home favourite, but this Pittsburgh team is playing with some momentum and I will back them to win this one by a Touchdown at least.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Jets + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 3 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 16: 5-6, - 3.55 Units
Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 65-73-2, - 15.45 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 16 Picks 2014 (December 18-22)

Week 15 Thoughts

A clear picture of Head Coaches about to be out of a job has developed: Some changes that are likely to be made are perhaps unfortunate, for example the horrible situation that is way beyond Rex Ryan's control at the New York Jets, but so many other Head Coaches are just about done with their current teams in the NFL.

Jim Harbaugh has overseen a poor season, relative to recent years at least, for the San Francisco 49ers and it now seems a given that he will be leaving this team.

Mike Smith will likely only be retained by the Atlanta Falcons if that team wins the NFC South and they can do that by winning out.

Marc Trestman is reportedly out of Chicago, but the Bears have so many issues which start with what they can do about Jay Cutler at Quarter Back and the huge contract they gave him before this season.

Joe Philbin is unlikely to be kept as the Miami Dolphins Head Coach thanks to a second successive season when the team has missed their chance to get to the Play Offs in December.

Should Denver be concerned with Terrance Knighton's comments regarding a Super Bowl win? Knighton himself has said that every player on a Play Off team should be thinking the same way and Tom Brady made it clear that none of the New England players will be looking ahead nor talking about things, but will let their play on the field dictate matters.

So should Denver be concerned they have offered the Patriots, as well as other potential Play Off opponents, some bulletin board material after 'Pot Roast's' comments? Personally I don't think so.

Most outside of the Broncos locker room saw this team as a potential Super Bowl Champion and it doesn't surprise me that the players believe they are capable of doing that too.

What would be a concern is some of the issues around Peyton Manning in recent weeks as this team is not going anywhere without their star Quarter Back behind Center. Manning has not been throwing the ball well and some are suggesting fatigue has gotten to him considering Denver had a very early 'Bye' week, while even some of the throws being completed have looked ugly coming out of his hands.

Getting a First Round bye in the Play Offs could be a huge benefit for Manning, but he just hasn't looked himself over the last month and I do have some concern for the Broncos that Manning has perhaps hit the wall this season.

So how does Johnny Football time feel for fans of the Cleveland Browns? There were a few Play Off places decided in Week 15, but seemingly most people were interested in seeing how Johnny Manziel would do in his first NFL start.

It was about as horrific a performance as anyone could have imagined!

I have not been sold about Manziel's potential as a long-term starter in the NFL and I thought the Cleveland Browns made a big mistake not taking Teddy Bridgewater or Derek Carr ahead of him in the Draft, a mistake that could set the franchise back a few more years.

The Browns are desperate for success and were right to give Manziel a chance to see what he has in the final three games of the season with the Play Offs already a reach. They will be desperate for much improved performances in the next two weeks to show the fans that there is some potential in what Manziel will do for this team, but another couple of performances like the one he produced against Cincinnati will really put the team in a tough spot.

Wasting a First Round pick on Manziel is going to be tough to overcome immediately and Cleveland may want to give the Quarter Back another full off-season before making any long-term rash judgements. But I am not going to be surprised at all if there isn't a couple of veteran Quarter Backs brought in to challenge Manziel for the starting spot in the 2015 season barring two huge performances for him over the last two weeks of the season.

The NFC South has been terrible, but the next two weeks are full of drama: The winner of the NFC South is not going to have a winning record, although the New Orleans Saints are still in a position to finish the season 8-8, and it has been a poor year for teams in the Division.

However, the last two weeks should produce some fascinating viewing with New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina all in a position to win the Division and the schedule makers have made sure that these teams are facing one another.

The Saints host the Atlanta Falcons this week and then the Carolina Panthers will visit Atlanta in Week 17 and it could be all to play for for any of those teams by next week. Even if the Saints beat Atlanta this week, Carolina can still win out and take the Division as long as New Orleans lose in Tampa Bay next week.

Nothing has been easy for teams in the NFC South this season so it would be something of a surprise if New Orleans clinch this week without the drama the Division has provided all season, but it will be up to Carolina to make sure the South title goes one more week by beating Cleveland at home.

Aaron Rodgers is still the MVP and Green Bay Packers will make the Play Offs: Aaron Rodgers was bamboozled by the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 and admitted he played a 'stinker', but it shouldn't take away from what has been an MVP season for the Quarter Back.

With games against Tampa Bay and Detroit left, I still expect the Green Bay Packers to make the Play Offs, although the biggest issue for them may be the fact that they have likely lost home field advantage through the Play Offs.

Seattle are closing in on the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will make them the favourites to win that Conference and it is going to be a big ask for the Green Bay Packers to go back to Seattle and win after their Week 1 loss there.

At Lambeau Field, the Packers have been dominant so losing out on the Number 1 Seed would be a real disappointment, although Green Bay won't give up fighting for it. If the Packers win out, they need Arizona and Seattle to drop a game each and that looks has a chance with those teams facing one another this week.

Play Off Prediction: AFC- New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Cincinnati

NFC- Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans, Arizona, Detroit

Top Ten

1) Seattle Seahawks (10-4): Defense is playing to the level of last season and they are in pole position to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

2) Green Bay Packers (10-4): The loss in Seattle means Green Bay are likely to finish with the Number 2 Seed in the NFC after failing to win out.

3) New England Patriots (11-3): The Patriots can clinch the Number 1 Seed in the AFC by beating the New York Jets and hoping the Cincinnati Bengals beat Denver on Monday Night Football.

4) Denver Broncos (11-3): I was tempted to drop Denver at least one place more because I just don't think Peyton Manning is all there.

5) Detroit Lions (10-4): The Detroit Lions can really prove how much of a Super Bowl contender they are if they win at Lambeau Field in Week 17, but for now that Defense is legitimate enough to pose a threat to win it all.

6) Dallas Cowboys (10-4): Huge win in Philadelphia, but Dallas have to win out to take the NFC East title.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5): The game in Atlanta is one that Pittsburgh could have blown in recent years, but they remain in control of their own destiny in the AFC North.

8) Indianapolis Colts (10-4): Clinched the AFC South, but unlikely to finish better than the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and may already be looking ahead to the Play Offs.

9) Baltimore Ravens (9-5): They did lose to Cincinnati twice in the regular season, but I think the Ravens are the better team and remain the race for the AFC North Division title.

10) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1): Cincinnati are leading the AFC North, but face Denver and Pittsburgh over the last two weeks and might need help to win the Division.

Bottom Five

32) Tennessee Titans (2-12): Lost a vital game against the New York Jets that keeps them in pole position to 'win' the Number 1 pick in the Draft... However, another 'big' game against Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football may determine if Tennessee can secure that.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12): Lovie Smith has a big job to turn this Tampa Bay franchise around, but getting one of the top two Quarter Backs likely coming out of College Football could be a start.

30) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12): Jacksonville used a number of trick plays, got some help from Baltimore's Field Goal kicker missing twice and a bad call resulting in a turnover for them... Yet they still lost by 8 and Blake Bortles may be done for the season.

29) Oakland Raiders (2-12): Derek Carr looks like a potential franchise Quarter Back, but Reggie McKenzie still has some work to do to make Oakland relevant again.

28) Washington Redskins (3-10): Dysfunctional times in Washington show no sign of ending and now the Quarter Back carousel has come back around for Robert Griffin to start.

Week 16 Picks

Week 15 produced a slight winning record, which makes a change after three terrible weeks in a row, and I hope I can at least finish the regular season with two more winning weeks.

Games in Week 16 take place on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday with the festive period meaning the television cameras will be going to a few more games for national coverage than in a normal week.

More Play Off situations will be resolved in the coming days, while other teams will be looking to improve Seeding in what should be another fascinating week in the National Football League.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Pick: I've been waiting and waiting to see if the line for the Philadelphia Eagles trip to the Washington Redskins would change, but Vegas have held their nerve and the Eagles remain a little more than a Touchdown favourite.

I actually still like the Eagles in this spot against a Washington team that has been dysfunctional to say the least- Jay Gruden looks to be on the hot seat as Head Coach because he continues to defy the owners and his criticism of Robert Griffin III shows little sign of ending.

This week Gruden admitted the Redskins need to play with a lead, clearly not having the faith in RG3 to be put in obvious passing situations. Unfortunately for Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles have played the run pretty effectively all season and even did a fairly good job against Russell Wilson so they may force RG3 to play from third and long situations more than Gruden would want to see.

The Eagles also get a lot of pressure up front and they should be swarming the Quarter Back in that position. On the other hand, the Washington Defense might have some success up front against the Eagles Offensive Line, particularly if Philadelphia struggle to establish the run of their own.

Mark Sanchez has been a little iffy in the pocket, missing some of his targets by wide margins despite his Receivers finding space downfield, but Washington's Secondary is banged up and I expect the Quarter Back has a chance to make some big plays in this one. Turnovers and inaccuracy has been the problem for Sanchez and he has to play a cleaner game than he has produced in the last two weeks if the Eagles are going to come through.

Games between teams in the NFC East are usually very competitive and Washington have spoken about playing spoiler for both Philadelphia and Dallas in their last two games. However, the Redskins have not been consistent enough for me, even if DeSean Jackson has a big game against his former team.

The Redskins are 0-2 against the spread as the home underdog this season, while their four home losses have all come by at least 10 points. In fact, 3 of those 4 losses have been by 20 points or more and the Eagles have a quick strike Offense that can put up big points very quickly. If Philadelphia get into a double digit lead, it may be too much for Washington to drag back and I like the Eagles to cover.


San Diego Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: It seems the San Diego Chargers are a public underdog in the second of the Saturday games in the NFL and I do believe they are the pick in this game, although only for a small interest.

The pick is mainly because I want to fade the San Francisco 49ers who have been eliminated from the Play Offs with their second loss to the Seattle Seahawks in a three week period. Jim Harbaugh looks to be moving on at the end of the season, Ray McDonald has caused more issues and has been released, there are injuries on both sides of the ball and Colin Kaepernick has had a really tough season where he has regressed from where the 49ers believed he was last season.

If the San Diego Chargers weren't so banged up themselves and on the brink of Play Off elimination, I would perhaps be a little more keen on this game. Unfortunately, Philip Rivers is hurt, although expected to play, while Keenan Allen has been lost for the season.

The 49ers Defense is giving up a few more yards on the ground than usual and the Secondary has been hit by some big plays, plus this unit gave their all to keep the game in Seattle as competitive as it was. San Francisco as a whole put so much into that game that I can't see where they get the motivation to play San Diego, an inter-Conference game, with nothing on the line.

San Diego's Defense has played pretty well in recent games, but they will need more from the banged up Rivers. However, San Francisco are just 1-2 against the spread as the home favourite of less than three points and the team playing against Seattle are 0-8 over the last eight weeks.

That is enough to think the underdog could take advantage of a team whose focus could be gone with the future direction of the franchise up in the air.


Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It would be a bigger surprise than at the end of last season if Stephen Ross does not decide to dispense of Joe Philbin once the regular season comes to a close. The lame duck Head Coach has seen his Miami Dolphins falter down the stretch for the second season in a row and the Play Offs already look a distant hope for the team in the strong AFC.

Recent games have seen Ryan Tannehill under immense pressure from the pass rush and it is unlikely to change in this game with the Minnesota Vikings very capable of getting to the Quarter Back. Lamar Miller has struggled to establish the run to ease the pressure on Tannehill and there is no guarantee the Dolphins can do that in this game even if the Minnesota Vikings have not been that stout against the run all season.

Injuries on the Offensive Line has made it difficult for Miami to get the run going and also to protect Tannehill and that has seen the latter respond with a short passing Offense that struggles when they are behind. The additional pressure that Minnesota have got up front has also protected their Secondary and they have given up less than 200 passing yards per game in their last three games and did well to slow down the Detroit Offense for much of last week.

Teddy Bridgewater has also shown improvement regularly and he looks like a player that will develop exactly the way that Minnesota would want. It might not be all down to Bridgewater either as Miami have begun to struggle against the run and even Matt Asiata may be able to establish something on the ground.

That should ease things for Bridgewater and I think he can hit his Receivers Charles Johnson, Kyle Rudolph and Greg Jennings down the field.

The line looks too big in this game considering how these teams have played in recent games. Minnesota may have put a big effort together against Detroit last week, but this is a team that has been playing hard for Mike Zimmer through much of the season. On the other hand, Miami might be a little demoralised with their Play Off hopes almost certainly dashed and they are playing for a Head Coach that is very unlikely to be here in 2015.

Minnesota have thrived as the underdog in recent seasons, going 21-13 against the spread over the last three seasons, and they have bounced back from Divisional losses to go 3-1 against the spread this season. With almost a Touchdown amount of points being handed to the Vikings, it is a big ask for Miami to cover under their current pressures and I believe the underdog road team has to be the pick.


Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: There are some real similarities between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens with the way their Defenses have been performing as both teams can get after the Quarter Back as well as slowing down the run game of their opponents. Their Secondary play has not been the best, but is protected by the pressure they have got up front and they have some big names on the Defensive Line that have made waves in the NFL.

However, both teams also have decent Offensive Lines that have protected their respective Quarter Backs so this could be a tough day for the likes of JJ Watt, Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to continue building on the big numbers they have.

One major difference between the teams is the fact that Baltimore have their Super Bowl winning Quarter Back behind Center in Joe Flacco, while Houston are going to have to go with either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum. That is down to the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage joined Ryan Mallett on the sidelines for the Texans and the team suffered a big blow to their post-season chances with the loss in Indianapolis last week.

The Ravens have so much still to achieve this season and I think Flacco will have enough big plays to make sure Baltimore get one step closer to earning a Play Off berth. I also feel that Keenum or Lewis may be a little rusty and could hold the ball a touch longer than required to be sure of themselves and that should give the Ravens pass rush the chance to really crash down on them.

Another key for Baltimore could be the presence of Gary Kubiak who was the Houston Head Coach until the end of last season. He will have a few tricks and suggestions up his sleeve at Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Ravens and could give Flacco the chance to make some big plays in this one.

Houston also put in a huge effort against the Indianapolis Colts last week and came up a little short and that may have left some players perhaps a little downhearted, especially with the Quarter Back issues too. The Ravens have been a decent favourite this season, including going 2-1 against the spread on the road, and I think their Defensive Line makes the bigger plays and helps the team come through with a Touchdown win.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: This has been one big mess of a season for the Chicago Bears and they are very likely to end it with the firing of Marc Trestman as Head Coach. There are also question marks about Phil Emery as General Manager and Jay Cutler as Quarter Back with the latter being benched for the final two games for Jimmy Clauson.

Yes, Jimmy Clauson, the Quarter Back with a 1-9 record as a starter! I am not sure whether he sees this as a chance to secure a starting spot for next season or whether he feels like the Christians back in Roman times being led to the Coliseum.

They were being fed to the Lions and it seems like Clauson has been given the same fate this week with the Detroit Defensive Line likely licking their chops in anticipation for this game. They have been so strong against the run which means Clauson won't be able to rely too much on Matt Forte and the penetration this Offensive Line allowed against the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football doesn't bode well for the new Quarter Back.

The Lions have only allowed more than 17 points in 1 of their last 6 games and this Chicago Offense has been so out of sync that it is tough to see them becoming the latest to do that. On the other hand, Matt Stafford should have a bounce back game after struggling against the Minnesota Vikings because this Bears Defense has been about as horrific as they come.

Injuries in the Secondary have been a problem, while teams have also begun to establish the run against Chicago and that will be an issue on Sunday. If the Lions are running the ball effectively, Matt Stafford should have the time to hit Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate for big gains... Then again, even if they don't have a strong running game, Stafford can move effectively enough from pressure to still get the ball to Megatron and Tate and the Lions should pick up from where they left off on Thanksgiving Day against this Defense.

I don't think Detroit will look ahead to the game against Green Bay next week because a loss could see them falling out of the Play Off positions with another at Lambeau Field. The Bears have also shown such little life and now bring in Jimmy Clauson and I am struggling to see them score enough points to keep this close.

Outdoor, cold conditions may slow down Detroit a little, but I would expect them to limit Chicago Offensively and this Bears Defense has not been able to get off the field consistently.

Chicago haven't been good at revenging losses in the same season, going 1-4 against the spread in recent years, while they have failed to cover in their last 5 games as the home underdog. The Lions haven't been a great road favourite themselves, and this is a big number, but I expect they have too much Offense for a Chicago team that has perhaps lost their motivation and whose own Offense has a new Quarter Back to break in.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: This is a huge NFC South game that can go a long way to decide which team will win this Division and move into the Play Offs- the Saints will be on the brink of doing that if they win with a Carolina loss giving them the Division.

On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons know they will be representing the South in the Play Offs if they win out so this game has plenty on the line for both teams.

New Orleans Saints have lost 4 in a row at home, a stunning sequence, but they have managed to stay in pole position in the NFC South thanks to 2 road wins in that time. Drew Brees played very well in Chicago on Monday Night Football, but I can't say I am convinced that the Saints have turned the corner by beating the awful Bears and the blow out loss at home against the Panthers is hard to ignore.

Brees should have considerable success against this Atlanta Secondary that was torn apart by the Green Bay Packers recently, while he should be helped with Mark Ingram likely to establish the run too.

However, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Offense won't be too worried about getting the chains moving themselves, even if Julio Jones is beginning to look like a doubt for the game. Harry Douglas can fill in, even if not to the level of Jones, and his play can help Ryan in the passing game.

A key for Atlanta is that they should be able to get either Steven Jackson or Jacquizz Rodgers considering the Saints are allowing 6.6 yards per carry over their last three games. The Saints can't sell out to stop the run simply because of the threat Ryan possesses in the passing game and this has all the makings of a shoot-out that will be decided by last possession.

Atlanta haven't played well as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, going 0-3 against the spread in that spot, but the Saints are just 4-8 against the spread as the favourite this season. In fact, the Saints are just 1-6 against the spread as the home favourite and have lost their last 4 home games straight up despite being favoured by 7, 10, 2.5 and 9.5 points.

Games between these teams do tend to be tight affairs too with the last two games in the Superdome being decided by a combined 10 points, albeit both in favour of New Orleans. Neither Defense has played well this season so both Quarter Backs can have a lot of success and I think Atlanta can keep this within the number.


Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Green Bay Packers were not on the same page against the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 which may have cost them the chance to host the NFC Play Offs, but all is not lost for this team. Earning a bye in the Wild Card Round is very much within their grasp by winning their last 2 games of the season and the Packers should have a really good chance to bounce back from last week.

The Packers Offense is going up against a Tampa Bay Defense that is banged up and sitting the likes of Gerald McCoy for the rest of the season. Aaron Rodgers won't have a lot of pressure on him and that will only make it easier for the Quarter Back to get back to the form that makes him the favourite to land the MVP award for the regular season.

Tampa Bay's Secondary has struggled for much of the season and injuries across the board for their Defense suggests Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy will all have strong games too.

It is a big number for the Packers to cover considering their own problems in the Secondary, but Josh McCown is not Matt Ryan and is likely to be under immense pressure for much of the afternoon. McCown does have the luxury of throwing the ball up to Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, who should both make some big catches for the Buccaneers, but he is also susceptible to a big turnover or two as well as holding the ball too long.

With the Green Bay pass rush being fairly effective in recent games and the Defense playing the run better than earlier in the season, McCown could find himself in third and long and trying to deal with Nick Perry, Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews penetrating the backfield.

Green Bay haven't played as well on the road all season, but the Packers have gone 3-1 against the spread following a loss, although only one of those games was on the road. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 1-5 against the spread at home and I am not convinced they have the Offense to try and keep up with an angry Green Bay team that will want a big bounce back from last week.

I am concerned that the Packers haven't been as good on the road this season as at Lambeau Field, but injuries to the Tampa Bay Defense should make this a more routine day in the office for them.


New York Giants @ St Louis Rams Pick: The New York Giants have continued to play hard despite being out of Play Off contention, although the one concern is that they are looking ahead to finishing the season against the Philadelphia Eagles.

However, Odell Beckham's arrival on the scene has reinvigorated Eli Manning and I still expect the Receiver to have some big numbers despite coming up against this St Louis Rams Defense. Like the Giants, the Rams have a huge Divisional game coming up in the final week of the season against the Seattle Seahawks so could perhaps be looking ahead to play spoiler.

While their Defense has played so well, the Rams have struggled for consistency on Offense with Shaun Hill at Quarter Back, although Tre Mason has every chance of having a huge day running the ball.

There really isn't a lot I want to say about this game expect that the Giants look like they have been given a lot of points for a team that hasn't given up on the season despite sitting at 5-9. The Rams are off a physical game against the Arizona Cardinals, even if they had additional time to prepare for this game, and I still think that Seattle game will be on their mind.

The Rams might win, but New York have played well enough to keep this close for a small interest.


Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Another public underdog this week are the Indianapolis Colts, but I do think Andrew Luck is going to miss TY Hilton and I like the Dallas Cowboys to win a game that will see them back into the Play Offs.

If DeMarco Murray was to miss out, it would be a big blow to Dallas but it does look like the Running Back will be available for this game. Murray and the Offensive Line have been finding their groove again in recent games, although the Colts have also played the run fairly effectively in recent games.

However, those came against Washington, Cleveland and Houston where the Colts didn't really respect the Quarter Back to the same level that you have to respect what Tony Romo can do. Romo carved up the Philadelphia Secondary last week and while I expect Dez Bryant to have a tougher day in the office against Vontae Davis than against Bradley Fletcher, I still think Romo has enough weapons to move this ball from third and short situations that the running game can provide.

Of course, backing against Andrew Luck isn't going to be much fun, but his Offensive Line has struggled in protection and he has also made some big mistakes in games that haven't been punished like Dallas can. I think you have to be crazy to think Luck doesn't make some big plays in this one against a Dallas Secondary that can make some big mistakes, but losing the downfield target of Hilton is a tough loss.

With the Colts also earning their place in the Play Off last week, there could be some players perhaps wanting to take a breath and rest some niggles ahead of the post-season. Dallas haven't been as good at home as they have on the road which has to be a concern for them, but they are playing a team that could just have relaxed enough.

So I said I think Dallas win, but does that mean I think they cover? Getting more than a Field Goal seems to be a little too much to be given to the Colts considering they are 12-9 against the spread as the underdog since Andrew Luck has been with the team. Take in the fact that Dallas have been a poor home favourite to back and that they have lost 3 of their last 4 at home, plus two of their triplets could be limited in this one and this has the makings of a field goal kind of game.


Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: This is another game I don't want to spend too much time on despite the winner going to be the favourite to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Why not? Ryan Lindley is why not! He has never thrown a Touchdown in the NFL and is now facing a Seattle Defense that is playing as well as when they won the Super Bowl last season. Bruce Arians said there are some packages for Logan Thomas too, but I can't imagine either Quarter Back haven't a lot of consistent success.

As good as the Arizona Defense have been playing too and as many times as they got to Russell Wilson when the teams met in Seattle, the Seahawks could make some big turnovers which allow them to cover what is a big number in what could be a low scoring game.

The Seahawks are desperate to win the NFC West, which is likely to bring the Number 1 Seed in the NFC to them too, and I think Wilson makes enough plays and Lindley perhaps turns the ball over a couple of times to allow Seattle to win this by at least ten points.

I will keep the play to minimum stakes because I do respect the Cardinals Defense and home record and this team may dig way deep within themselves for another big effort. Arizona have surprised me constantly this season and while I don't think they are a top team, they have earned my respect.


Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: I am not always a fan of picking these late Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games because some of the heavy action comes in on those games and backing the favourites can be a dangerous play.

However, the Denver Broncos look like a far better team than the Cincinnati Bengals and I think backing Peyton Manning over Andy Dalton in a prime time game is an easy selection to make. Win or lose, Manning should never 'only' be a three point favourite over Dalton in a game that matters in a prime time spot and the play has to be made.

There are some concerns over Manning and the thigh injury he has, although the Quarter Back hasn't looked himself for a few weeks now. Denver have made a point of running the ball more than we have become accustomed to seeing, although they have been effective enough to establish it against Cincinnati in this one too.

Whether that was done to protect an unhealthy Manning, preparation for the January Play Off games or simply because of some key injuries at Receiver, it has raised some questions about Manning. However, he has been doing enough on Offense and the Denver Defense has raised their game to make sure the Broncos remain in a position to try and steal away home field advantage through the Play Offs from the New England Patriots.

Andy Dalton and the Bengals have thrived as the underdog this season, going 5-1 against the spread in that spot, but he hasn't been confident enough in the prime time games which is a concern. The fact that Dalton won't be able to rely on much of a running game and that both Receivers are dealing with some top Corner Backs in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris and it could be another negative prime time performance from the Quarter Back.

Denver have been stout against the run and have a very effective pass rush so Dalton could feel some pressure and mistakes may be made. The Broncos can give up passing yards when they play soft coverage with a lead, but this is a team that hasn't allowed more than 17 points in their last three games, although it is arguable that Cincinnati are the best Offensive team they have faced in that time.

The Broncos are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 road games, while Cincinnati have been blown out in their last 2 home games. Both teams need this victory to achieve some of their goals, but it has to be Manning over Dalton for me and I will back Denver to cover the three point spread.

0 Unit Pick: Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points, Carolina Panthers - 4 Points, Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points, New York Jets + 10.5 Points, Buffalo Bills - 7 Points

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 8 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 6 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
New York Giants + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 60-67-2, - 11.90 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units