NFL Super Bowl LX Pick 2026- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8th February)

If you go back in time and let people know that this is the Super Bowl that will conclude the 2025 season, I am not sure there will be too many that would believe you.

It may not be quite up to the 'Back to the Future Part II' odds of the Chicago Cubs winning it all in that movie, but the Seahawks were 60-1 and the Patriots 80-1 in the pre-season odds to win the Super Bowl.

None of that matters to the fans of either teams and it will certainly not matter to the Coaching Staff and the players as they look to cement their place in history.

Out of the two teams, it really does feel like the Seattle Seahawks have a significant edge on both sides of the ball, but the NFL season has been a strange one from the start and it would not be a big surprise to anyone if the New England Patriots were to win the first Championship since Tom Brady departed as Quarter Back.

Many would have been hoping the Patriots were going to have to suffer through a long period without success having been the dominant team with Brady and Bill Belichick, but Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have had plenty to say about that.

Of course there are big stories that can be completed on the other side with Sam Darnold's fight to finally be seen as one of the top players in the position perhaps being determined by the final result. The Seahawkss rebuild has to be admired and of course they have a British Defensive Co-Ordinator in Aden Durde who has been a remarkable success story for others to follow and has helped form a very strong Seattle Defense that looks to be the best unit on the field on either side of the ball.

This has been a tough season for the NFL Picks and snaps a strong run over the last couple of years.

Some of that has been down to what has been an incredibly inconsistent League and perhaps without adjustments being made quickly enough, but it is something to learn from over the next six months before a 'new game' begins.

My Super Bowl thoughts and Pick can be read below.

Super Bowl LX Pick: The AFC Champion New England Patriots (17-3) meet the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in the Super Bowl, which is the repeat of Super Bowl XLIX played in February 2015. That was a game one by the Patriots, but all Seattle fans will still remember the decision to throw the ball rather than handing it to Marshawn Lynch and seeing that pass Intercepted to prevent the Seahawks from repeating as Champions.

The Seahawks have not been back to the Big Game since then, while the New England Patriots won a couple more Super Bowls with Tom Brady at Quarter Back. The future Hall of Famer has also led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl success, but the New England Patriots had been struggling to find a Brady replacement until this season.

Drake Maye is not the most experienced, but the Quarter Back has been a key part of the turnaround for the Patriots who had won just eight games in the previous two seasons before this stunning 2025 season. Head Coach Mike Vrabel deserves a lot of credit for influencing this roster too, but New England will be the underdog when they face Seattle.

They deserve credit for getting past the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos, but it also should be stated that this has not exactly been a 'murderer's row' of opponents. The Chargers and Texans had glaring issues, which were exposed by the Patriots, while the Denver Broncos had to play with a backup Quarter Back and that did make a difference in a close game.

Much of the credit has to be given to the Patriots Defensive unit.

They have really stepped up and will need to be at their best against the Seattle Seahawks who got the better of two Divisional rivals San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams and who have definitely earned their place in the Super Bowl by taking on a much tougher schedule than the one New England have had to play.

All of that won't matter on Sunday in the Super Bowl when it is all about executing properly on the day.

While the Seattle Offensive unit have put up better numbers than the Patriots, the Defensive unit is the stronger for the Seahawks as it is for the AFC Champion.

With that said, it is going to be a game that feels like it is going to be decided by which of the two Defensive units is able to impose themselves the best.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be really important when the Seahawks have the ball- they will want to keep Quarter Back Sam Darnold in third and manageable spots as much as possible and try and keep the pressure from someone who has had a history of struggling in big spots. Over the last month, Sam Darnold has not really had those moments, but there is always a concern about the Quarter Back until he proves there should not be and so the game plan will still involve seeing a lot of Kenneth Walker III.

He is going to be running behind a very good Seattle Offensive Line, but the Patriots have really had a good Playoff clamping down up front and this is going to be a key battleground. You have to feel the Patriots 'must' stop the run and try and see if they can put Sam Darnold in a position where he feels he has to win the game for Seattle, which can lead to mistakes, while the Seahawks missed Zach Charbonnet and his ability to not only pound the rock, but to be that safety blanket for the Quarter Back.

Throwing against this Secondary is going to be a big challenge for Sam Darnold- his favourite Receiver is likely going to be blanketed by New England's best Defensive Back, Christian Gonzalez, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba will be fighting for room, but that will mean focusing on the experience of Cooper Kuup and hoping that Rashid Shaheed can also take the top off the Secondary.

Seattle may ultimately decide that they don't want to make too many mistakes and play the field position and so running the ball is going to be key.

You can say the same on the other side of the ball.

While the Patriots Defensive Line have stepped up the level in the post-season, the Seattle Defensive Line has been one of the best at stopping the run through the campaign.

The Seahawks did have some trouble stopping the Los Angeles Rams running the ball, but that might have something to do with Matt Stafford at Quarter Back and the familiarity the teams had with one another. This time the Seattle game plan may be to ask Drake Maye to beat them with his arm, especially as he is playing behind an Offensive Line that have been much better at run blocking than pass protection.

New England will not shy away from what they want to do and will be happy to play the field position if they have to and that means they will continue to pound the rock for as long and as often as is needed.

Third and long spots will definitely favour the Seahawks who have a decent pass rush and who will certainly have seen the issues New England have had in giving Drake Maye time to throw down the field. Those issues have been compounded by the fact that Maye has struggled to hold onto the ball when he is being Sacked and it is those turnovers that could become a huge factor in the final outcome of the Super Bowl.

Drake Maye will make some plays- he can throw the ball to some experienced Receivers, while he showed he is willing to tuck the ball and run for First Downs when needed. That will help the New England Patriots, but it does feel like the Super Bowl could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewest mistakes.

There is also a feeling that the Seattle Defensive unit is the superior of the two that will be on the field on Sunday and that is where the difference could be made with the likelihood that they can win the turnover battle.

The underdog has covered in each of the last five Super Bowls played, while four of those have ended with the underdog earning an outright win.

Everything is pointing to a low scoring game, which is not uncommon in recent Super Bowl games played, and that does make the spread a little more awkward. Having this many points gives the underdog a chance for a backdoor cover in the worst case, but there is an underlying feeling that the Seahawks are much more battle-hardened and have an Offensive unit capable of making one or two more plays than the Patriots.

Keeping stakes relatively low looks to be the best approach with a game that could come down to one or two plays, but the edge before kickoff is with the NFC Champion to win the Super Bowl for a second year in a row and with another cover in a winning effort.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.14 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 51-66, - 20.45 Units (117 Units Staked, - 17.48% Yield)

Super Bowl LIII NFL Picks 2019 (February 3rd)

Super Bowl LIII- New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams

We could have got a very different Super Bowl if the officials in the NFC Championship Game had an idea on how to enforce the rules which cost the New Orleans Saints to ice the game against the Los Angeles Rams before being beaten in Overtime. The Kansas City Chiefs also came very close to knocking off the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game with the key moment being Dee Ford lining up offside in a play that ended with a Tom Brady pick that would have won the game for the Chiefs.

Instead the Patriots and the Rams got the ball back in both cases and were able to go on and win in Overtime to set up this Super Bowl.

Let's begin with this- I don't like the New England Patriots, which isn't a surprise considering I am a Miami Dolphins fan, while I am very bored of seeing this team find their way into the Super Bowl. This is the third year in a row that the Patriots are representing the AFC and they are 1-1 in the last couple of years, while the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick connection have made it through to a ninth Super Bowl which began with a win over the Rams in 2001.

On that day the Patriots were the underdog against the 'Greatest Show on Turf' but the win for New England began a dynasty in Boston while the Rams suffered through some miserable years. They've moved to Los Angeles since that 2001 game and the Rams are now looking like a team on the up with Head Coach Sean McVay receiving a lot of plaudits for the work done from an Offensive point of view.

Los Angeles have come through a tough path to make the Super Bowl with the win in New Orleans very impressive. They have a strong roster, but the Rams have to make sure they are not predictable on both sides of the ball. You know Belichick is going to have schemed things in a way to try and take away not only weapons from the Los Angeles Rams, but he is going to want to make sure they are not able to open up the play-action which has been a key for them.

CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley are both expected to earn a lot of touches in this game and they are going to be facing a New England Defensive Line that has shown improvement in each passing week of the season. The Patriots have been dominant in the Play Offs having held both the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs to 41 yards or fewer and they have given up those yards at 2.7 yards per carry.

It is going to be important for New England to be stout up front again as it will disrupt a lot of what the Rams want to do. McVay has proven to be someone who does want to make big plays out of the play-action, but restricting the Rams on the ground will perhaps make them a little predictable. Los Angeles can try and open things up by using Gurley as a pass catcher on first and second Downs and then pound the ball against the Patriots but it does feel like an important battle in the trenches.

Forcing teams into obvious passing situations has seen the New England Secondary also vastly improve their play. It should be no surprise after seeing this for many a season, but Bill Belichick has taken young players and moulded them into valuable starters and doing it in a way where he can replace them and bring someone else in to do a stellar job like the Patriots have been doing once again down the stretch.

The pass rush has come alive for the Patriots, but Jared Goff is someone who has shown he can get the ball out of his hands quick enough. However the biggest benefit for the young Quarter Back is having his Head Coach essentially decipher Defenses for him at the line and also being protected by a strong Offensive Line which will give him enough time to make his plays through the air.

That should mean Los Angeles are able to have success throwing the ball, but much depends on the run and the exact same thing can be said for the New England Patriots.

For all the points scored by the New England Patriots and for all the credit that deserves to be given to Quarter Back Tom Brady it has to be noted that his has thrown just two Touchdown passes in the Play Offs. That is down to the Patriots going back to a power running play calling and Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and James White have all had successes with the ball in their hands.

All three Running Backs are going to have their opportunities in this game and over the course of the season this would have been the right play against the Los Angeles Rams. The Defensive Line have some top names on it, but the Rams had not been able to stop the run, but that has changed in the Play Offs as they have held the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints to 2.3 yards per carry.

Containing the likes of Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will set Los Angeles up to be very confident in stopping the Patriots and once again the trenches are going to be a key for the two teams. If the Rams can stop the run they will believe the front four can put a lot of pressure on Brady when he steps back to throw and that has been the successful formula to knock this Quarter Back off his game in the post-season.

Aaron Donald could create huge match up problems right up front and getting into Brady's face may lead to some errant throws and stalled drives.

You would still think the Patriots can move the chains with the way they can scheme mismatches against what may be a pretty predictable base Defense run by Wade Phillips.

The Rams Secondary have not been able to stop teams, but they are playing a 'bend, don't break' system and it may need New England to play out some long drives to get into a position to produce points. What that does is suggest this could be a game that is shortened by the the two teams having long, time consuming drives with both looking to run the ball and create short passes for their Quarter Back which keeps the clock running.

In recent years the Super Bowl has been a high-scoring game and especially higher than the layers have anticipated, while the underdog has been the team to back. However I think this could be far too many points in a game where these two teams may have long drives to score points and barring a number of short field turnovers I do think we could see an 'under' in this game.

I considered backing the underdog in this one with my lean towards the Los Angeles Rams, but I do think going with the total points line is the best play in this Super Bowl.

It could be another close game as we have tended to see in the majority of Super Bowls played recently and Overtime would be a killer for my selection.


But even with that in mind I am going to play the 'under' in this one.

MY PICK: New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams Under 55.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Super Bowl LII Pick- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 4th 2018)

Super Bowl LII- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL season has come and gone in the blink of an eye and we are down to the final two teams in the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles who meet in the Super Bowl in Minnesota on Sunday 4th February 2018.

It looks a good game on paper with enough intrigue to make the Super Bowl 'must watch' TV and not only for the commercials and half time show either.

The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles have come through the Play Offs in similar ways with one dominant win and one tough one that could have easily gone the other way.

For the Patriots it was an easy night in the Divisional Round as they dominated the Tennessee Titans after some early issues, while they were then having a few issues with the tough Defensive Jacksonville Jaguars who could so easily have won the AFC Championship Game.

The Philadelphia Eagles had it the other way around as they battled past the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round when holding them out as the Falcons threw into the End Zone for the win at the end of the Fourth Quarter. They then dominated the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game and the Philadelphia Eagles will not have worry about being the underdog in the Super Bowl having won both home Play Off Games as the underdog already.

That is going to inspire them in the Super Bowl as people failed to believe Nick Foles would be able to do enough to cover for the injured Carson Wentz. Some of that was down to two really average performances in the regular season and I am still not sure Nick Foles is going to be able to reach the level he did against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.

I was very impressed with the throws he made against a very strong Minnesota Defensive unit, but I also have to say that the Vikings produced their worst performance of the season on that side of the ball. The Vikings Defensive unit may be better than the one the New England Patriots have, but that performance in the NFC Championship Game was far below how well the Patriots can play and so Nick Foles has to expect a much tougher test of his ability in the Super Bowl.

Bill Belichick would have been studying the tape over the last couple of weeks and I think that is going to make a difference against Foles. Taking away one of the key contributors is going to be an issue for Foles as he may have to go through his progressions a little more, although a similar level to the one he produced against Minnesota would definitely give the Eagles plenty of chances to move the ball and score points against this New England Defensive unit.

Foles can have success in this one, but has to be aware of the pass rush that New England have been able to generate up front. So far the Eagles have been able to overcome the loss of Jason Peters and Lane Johnson remains as good as any Right Tackle in the NFL, but the Patriots will give them different looks up front to try and get to Foles and at least force him to get the ball out of his hands earlier than he would like.

It might be down to Foles to keep the chains moving as the Patriots continue to play the run effectively enough. However the likes of Jay Ajayi are able to come out of the Running Back spots to catch short passes and make some big plays in the open field so New England will have to make sure they are fully focused on tackling as well as they can.

The Quarter Back will take his shots against a good Secondary and I expect Foles to connect with some of the deep shots too. However the Patriots have some top playmakers in the Secondary and Foles has to be at his best to make sure he gives the Eagles the very best chance to win the big game.

Questions about Nick Foles' temperament have been raised throughout the last two weeks and we really won't know how he can handle the pressure until kick off. That is not the case with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots who are so used to playing in the last game of the season and the match up at the line of scrimmage is crucial for the Philadelphia Eagles to try and at least rattle the future Hall of Famer.

Philadelphia have the talent on the Defensive Line to get after Brady without sending more than four men after the Quarter Back and that is crucial to their chances of the upset. Throughout a stellar career we have seen Brady struggle when being put under pressure by four men and that has led to erratic performances, but his experience should mean he is at least able to make some big plays for the New England Patriots with a full complement of Receiving weapons available after Rob Gronkowski cleared the concussion protocol.

Like the Eagles, New England will likely lean on their Quarter Back more than running the ball against a tough Defensive Line. However, also like the Eagles, the Running Backs are very capable Receivers either lining up wide or coming from out of the backfield and Brady is more than happy to provide short passes that those Backs can catch and produce big plays in the open field.

There will be a respect for the Philadelphia Secondary who have played well and have some stellar talent in their ranks, but Brady will look to open them up with the short to mid-range passes which could see someone like Brandin Cooks break a big one. Mainly I expect Brady to rely on the short passing game to keep the chains moving and try and tire out a Philadelphia pass rush which could then see the Patriots take over this game.

Picking a winner is still tough though because I like the way the Eagles have been built and I honestly think they would win if they had Carson Wentz. As well as Nick Foles played against Minnesota, expecting that level again seems a stretch to me and I can see Bill Belichick finding the system to slow down the Eagles Offensively.

Seeing the New England Patriots as the public team has been the norm in recent years, but the public are firmly behind the Philadelphia Eagles as the underdog in this one. That has seen the point spread shrink to an acceptable level here and I do think the New England Patriots can use their superior Quarter Back play help them get the better of a Philadelphia team that may need the perfect performance from their back up Quarter Back to find a way to earn the upset.

Defensively they can slow the Patriots to some extent, but the no-huddle Tom Brady runs is likely to wear down the Eagles and it will all come down to whether Nick Foles can make the big plays on the other side of the ball. I expect Foles to make a few tough throws, but I expect Belichick makes the adjustments at half time to turn this game in the New England Patriots favour and I think they can win yet another Super Bowl and cover this number.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 2 Recap 2015 (September 23rd)

Week 2 of the NFL is in the books and it has been a very important one with key injuries to some of the teams expecting to challenge for the Super Bowl and some surprising 0-2 teams.

Some things haven't changed in the NFL though, and I will discuss those soon, while I try and figure whether we are about to see some big changes in other franchises.

Without further ado, let's get on with my Week 2 Recap as well as the Power Rankings and Week 2 Picks breakdown.

New England Still the Team to Beat in the AFC East

I was really looking forward to seeing how the Buffalo Bills would do against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and genuinely believed the home team could lay down a marker and show this is going to be anything but the usual cakewalk for the Patriots in the AFC East this season.

Beating down the Indianapolis Colts and getting the game at home meant there was a lot of talking in Buffalo this week and many of the 'wiseguys' in Vegas were also backing the Bills to record a statement win.

I guess we all should have learned that you simply can't disregard New England while Tom Brady is Quarter Backing the team and Number 12 was pretty spectacular against a Defense that could be one of the best in the NFL. They didn't look that way on Sunday as New England tagged Buffalo for 42 points and once again highlighted that there is only so far you can go with a Quarter Back that has struggled for a home through his career in Tyrod Taylor.

The Pats have put a big rival in the AFC East in their place and they would have enjoyed seeing the Miami Dolphins lay an egg in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are issues with the coaching staff and the players in Miami and that looks a situation that could potentially get ugly very quickly despite some good moves in Free Agency and the Draft.

Even the 2-0 and New York Jets won't really worry New England because Ryan Fitzpatrick simply is never far away from bombing out and I do think the Patriots can dominate this Division again.

After the excitement of going into Week 2 with every team at 1-0 in the Division and Buffalo looking like a real contender to knock off New England, Week 3 looks to have a much more familiar feel for the fans in the AFC East.

Is the Drew Brees/Sean Payton Era over in New Orleans?

I am a big fan of Drew Brees and one of the biggest regrets has to be when my team the Dolphins passed him over in favour of Daunte Culpepper ten years ago because they believed the Quarter Back's shoulder was shot.

Brees proved he was far from done and found the perfect home in New Orleans along with Head Coach Sean Payton, a partnership that led to a Super Bowl win.

Father Time remains undefeated though and New Orleans have made some moves which suggested that they are perhaps rebooting things here, while some reports suggested they would try and move on from Brees at the end of the season. There is also a power struggle going on behind the scenes between Tom Benson and Rita Benson whereby the latter winning could see Sean Payton walk as Head Coach.

He might not need to walk if the 0-2 Saints can't turn things around after an embarrassing home defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially as Brees looked to have damaged his shoulder in that loss. The rumour mill believes Brees could be missing time on the field and that is only going to make the decision to reboot and move on from the Quarter Back that much easier especially if he is to miss extended time.

No one will ever doubt Brees' position at the franchise and he will never have to buy another drink in New Orleans, but I am starting to wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the Brees/Payton partnership. I wouldn't be surprised if New Orleans just take the hit on the Brees contract, because they are unlikely to find too many trading partners on his current deal, at the end of the season, but his departure could easily coincide with Payton's if the Saints can't pick themselves up and start winning games.

Can the Dallas Cowboys Overcome Key Injuries to Win the NFC East?

The Dallas Cowboys are up to 2-0 thanks to a second Divisional win in consecutive weeks, but losing one of the two pictured players would have been a blow... Losing both could make it very tough for Dallas to be in a position to win this Division by the time both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return.

Bryant was lost after Week 1 and could miss up to 12 weeks with a foot injury according to some reports, while Romo broke his collarbone for the second time in his career in Week 2 and is likely to be out for up to 8 weeks.

Those are some huge losses for Dallas and I don't think there will be too many out there proclaiming their belief in Brandon Weedon as the starting Quarter Back as Jerry Jones did on Tuesday.

It only magnifies the decision to let DeMarco Murray walk in Free Agency (Dallas did offer him enough money to stay, but Murray ultimately felt unloved) as the Cowboys haven't been as effective running the ball without him. They need to establish a running game to give Weedon as much support as possible, while the Defense needs to keep up the play they have produced for much of the first two weeks.

Reinforcements on that unit look to return in the next few weeks so Dallas might be relying on Weedon to manage them through games, but the Arizona Cardinals showed how difficult that can be last season after losing Carson Palmer. The Dallas Offensive Line should be able to open more holes to at least run the ball and keep the team in third and manageable, but none of the Running Backs on the depth chart have looked capable of making up for Murray's loss.

The schedule isn't kind to Dallas in the coming weeks as they face the likes of Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, the New York Giants, the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles without Romo and Bryant, while the game in New Orleans is always a tough test (well it was before New Orleans lost 6 in a row there).

Dallas could easily be 4-5 by the time Tony Romo is back, but the back end of the schedule is manageable and I don't doubt the Cowboys can make it back to the Play Offs.

One benefit for them has to be the Division and the fact the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are both 0-2 and no one really believes in the Washington Redskins even at 1-1. It doesn't look a Division that would see anyone pull away from Dallas even if they are 4-5 going into Week 11 and so I still believe they can overcome injuries and get back to the Play Offs.

Chip Kelly Under Pressure to get Things Right in Philadelphia

When Chip Kelly won the battle behind the scenes to effectively take over as General Manager as well as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles this off-season, he was automatically under more pressure to make sure he makes the right moves.

Kelly is clearly very confident in his system, but to jettison names like LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin, as well as making big changes on the Offensive Line and trade away Nick Foles for Sam Bradford meant he couldn't afford a poor start to the season.

A 0-2 type start.

The kind of start the Eagles have made.

It was an ugly loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 2 as DeMarco Murray continues to struggle to find the running lanes that the Dallas Cowboys opened for him last season, while Bradford was horrible at Quarter Back. The Defense tried to play their part, but it is the Offense that Kelly has been come to known for and their failure is a reflection on the Head Coach/General Manager.

Troy Aikman made the point on Sunday that the Eagles have only played two good Quarters out of the eight they have competed in this season and the pressure is going to come down on Kelly.

Missing the Play Offs last season was a big disappointment, but when you make the moves Kelly did in chasing some big names out of town you can't afford a poor season. The Philadelphia fans have been known for being an impatient bunch who are quick to voice their displeasure and returning back to Lincoln Financial Field at less than 2-2 might see Kelly hear it all from the stands.

Which 0-2 Team is Best Placed to Make the Play Offs?

There is a statistic that says that only 12% of teams who start the season 0-2 will go on and make the Play Offs (since 1990) and there are a number of pre-season favourites that have fallen into that hole.

The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks have all lost their first two games.

Four of those teams made the Play Offs last season, while the Colts and Seahawks was a favourite Super Bowl pick of many.

Baltimore have regularly been a Play Off team in recent seasons and many expected the New Orleans Saints to bounce back from a disappointing 2014 season, but it simply hasn't worked out for these teams.

So which has the best chance to overcome the odds and join the 12% who have made the Play Offs?

I'd have to go with the Indianapolis Colts to overcome some real conflicts behind the scenes between Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pegano because of the terrible Division they play in. Andrew Luck has feasted on the AFC South teams since coming into the NFL and no team has won both games in the Division so they look to have the best chance of turning things around.

The Seattle Seahawks will find it tough to beat out the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West if Carson Palmer remains healthy, while the Baltimore Ravens have to beat the Cincinnati Bengals this week, although both can fight back for Wild Card spots.

Philadelphia and the New York Giants will have seen Dallas hurt badly by injuries so are also far from finished, but I would pick the Indianapolis Colts if I was told that only one of the nine teams at 0-2 will be making the Play Offs at the end of the season.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (2-0): They only beat the NFC Champions from last season which gives them the confidence to go on and earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC this time around.

2) Arizona Cardinals (2-0): I think the Cardinals are still severely under-rated in some circles and this is a team that can win it all if they have better health than last season.

3) New England Patriots (2-0): I almost put them up to Number 2 after an impressive beat down of the Buffalo Bills on the road, but the New England Patriots remain in this spot as the team to beat in the AFC.

4) Denver Broncos (2-0): Peyton Manning looked so much more comfortable running his own Offense out of the shotgun, but will Gary Kubiak change his mind about his own system.

5) Atlanta Falcons (2-0): Matt Ryan's Offensive Line needs to be a little more solid, but the Falcons have looked better on both sides of the ball compared with 2014.

6) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0): Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals seem to be a dark horse at this stage of the season, but they will have to prove themselves going forward to remain as high as I have them.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1): The Offense looks like it is about to get more dangerous with Le'Veon Bell returning to team duties, but it is the Defense that will hold back Pittsburgh.

8) Dallas Cowboys (2-0): Injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant means I had to drop them down the Rankings, but the Dallas Cowboys could still be the team to beat in the NFC East.

9) Indianapolis Colts (0-2): I can't see the Colts playing as badly as they have in the first couple of games, but they need to prove it on the field with a Divisional game at Tennessee this week.

10) Seattle Seahawks (0-2): There were signs that the Seahawks are still going to be amongst the contenders in their loss to the Packers, but I would be worried by another Fourth Quarter lead given up.

Bottom Five

32) Chicago Bears (0-2): Two home losses, albeit to the teams I consider amongst the best in the NFL, and an injury to Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery means the Chicago Bears might take some turning around.

31) New Orleans Saints (0-2): The Saints still can't get off the field on the Defensive side of the ball, while Drew Brees is hurt and the Offense has been too inconsistent.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1): Jameis Winston was a lot better in Week 2 than he was in Week 1 and winning in the SuperDome is not easy, but I am not sold on the Buccaneers just yet.

29) Tennessee Titans (1-1): Marcus Mariota was brought back down to earth by the Cleveland Browns and the Titans suffered a couple of key injuries.

28) Miami Dolphins (1-1): This might be frustration on my part, but the Miami Dolphins look a mess with reports of discord between the coaching staff and players and a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars was just ugly.

Week 2 Picks Recap

The picks went into the final two games of Week 2 in a decent position to come out with a winning record, but the three points on the Seattle Seahawks and the Indianapolis Colts didn't work out to produce a small loss.

A couple of the picks were just plain ugly and didn't stand much of a chance after the early stages, the worst of which might have been the Buffalo Bills being outplayed by the New England Patriots.

It could have been different if Seattle hadn't thrown an Interception in the Fourth Quarter of the loss to the Green Bay Packers as they looked to be driving effectively for what would have been a tying score.

Even so, I can't complain too much as I am still up through the first two weeks and I will continue to try and keep focused and get Week 3 back into the positive.

As always, you can read my Week 3 Picks on the dedicated post which should be up on Thursday with picks being made through Saturday and I will have updated the season totals on that page too.

Super Bowl XLIX Pick- Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots (Sunday 1st February 2015)

The time for talking is over as we get set to say goodbye to the 2014 NFL season- the 49th edition of the Super Bowl comes from Arizona as the New England Patriots get set to take on the Seattle Seahawks.

I have taken a few days to really get to grips with my pick and seem to be going with the popular choice from the NFL players and journalists that have made their decision on which team they believe will win the Championship. It is a season when the spread doesn't really matter as the teams can't be separated by the layers so it simply comes down to a choice of which of these teams you believe will win.

I am looking to extend my run to 4 straight Super Bowl winners this season and I have my pick below.


Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots: For the second season in succession, the Number 1 Seed from the AFC plays the Number 1 Seed from the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year it is the Seattle Seahawks (14-4) taking on the New England Patriots (14-4) in Super Bowl XLIX which will come from the home of the Arizona Cardinals.

Both teams made it to the Super Bowl in contrasting fashion, although the Patriots win has been tainted a little from 'Deflate-Gate' which has dominated the media over the last two weeks. New England crushed the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Conference Championship, but it was later revealed that the balls had not been inflated to the League's minimum requirement, an issue which makes it 'easier' to throw and catch in the rainy conditions we saw at Foxboro two weeks ago.

Most of the Colts team have made it clear that they don't believe there was any reason to think the game would have ended much differently, but the Patriots have previous which has made this a story. It was only a few seasons ago that Bill Belichick was fined half a million dollars and the Patriots lost Draft picks following 'Spy-Gate' when caught filming the signals of their opposition and this is another issue where many are saying the New England successes have not been clean.

The blame on this occasion shifted from Belichick and the spotlight was on Tom Brady, but the NFL have tried to put the issue to bed by saying they will deal with the outcome of their investigation following the Super Bowl. The Patriots may try and use the whole furore to rally the troops together, but they are facing the defending Champions who look to become the first team in ten years to repeat.

The Seattle Seahawks somehow got through the NFC Conference Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers and I am still not sure how they won that game. The Seahawks were down by 12 points with less than five minutes remaining, but it seems the footballing gods were on their side as they converted a number of unbelievable plays to knock off the Packers.

A Touchdown brought Seattle to 5 points behind Green Bay, but they then converted an onside kick, scored another Touchdown before converting a 'Hail Mary' two point play and then scored a winning Touchdown in Overtime. It was one of the most surreal endings to any NFL game that I have seen, let alone one with so much on the line and the Packers must still be wondering how they have lost on 2 of their last 3 visits to the tough Seattle environment.

The big question out of that game against Green Bay was the health of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, but both are going to be available this Sunday. Sherman is expected to be a father at some point over the next seven days, but it would be extremely bad timing for him to miss this game.

Sherman has been making himself available to the media all through the week, but one of the more ridiculous stories has been concerning Marshawn Lynch. That isn't me criticising the Running Back either because I think it is a farce to ask Lynch to have to talk to the media when he is clearly not comfortable doing so. We have then been treated to Lynch saying the same thing over and over again for five minutes and writers going home to make headlines about the whole thing... As I said, ridiculous!

The Seattle Seahawks had to come from 13 points behind to beat the New England Patriots when they last met in 2012. That game was played in Seattle and is now known as the 'you mad bro?' Game following a tweet that Richard Sherman sent out after the game.


PICK: I have been going back and forth about this game ever since it was set two weeks ago, but I think I have perhaps been over thinking things. Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks match up well against one another, but I was convinced the NFC is the better Conference and I think Seattle prove that by winning back to back Championships.

I will be absolutely honest with you- I don't like either of these teams. Being a Miami Dolphin fan means the New England Patriots will always be a big rival, but they have also been very successful and that does breed a little more dislike. The Seahawks have never really been a team I was overly concerned about, but I can't be the only person who hates seeing any team with their 'bandwagon support' and my dislike comes from the amount of two year fans the Seahawks have picked up.

That does help me clear my head for this game though and look at it from a very cold perspective, which is always the best way when it comes to making picks. I try and put my heart aside when it comes to making picks, but I will admit it couldn't be any easier in this game!

It does seem like the sharps are all over the under at the moment with that total shrinking over the last two weeks and that is understandable. Despite the 40 plus points that New England scored against Indianapolis, the Patriots are not the quick strike Offense that went unbeaten in the regular season in 2007 and instead take a much more methodical approach to their games.

Seattle are the same, although Russell Wilson can air it out at times, and both Defenses are very strong so this game may be 'shortened' with the clock running through plays on the ground and quick passes being completed.

Tom Brady will have success against the Legion of Boom simply because he is unlikely to be testing them deep down the field and instead will look to his possession Receivers like Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski to take his short passes and produce yards after the catch. LeGarrette Blount is a punishing Running Back, but it won't be easy for him to produce a big game against this Seattle Defense, while the Seahawks will feel they can rattle Brady with their four man pass rush.

I expect the New England Patriots will use the blueprint set out by the San Diego Chargers in a win over Seattle earlier this season, although the Seahawks are playing better now. Philip Rivers used quick plays to prolong drives in a methodical manner which kept the Seattle Defense out of sync and I imagine New England will try and do the same.

If Blount can get something going on the ground, the Patriots will definitely have a chance to win this game, but the feeling is that the Seattle Defense can keep Brady in third and long on enough occasions to force punts or mistakes.

While the Seattle Secondary will receive all the attention thanks to a nice moniker, the New England Secondary is also one of the best in the NFL. Darrelle Revis is very comfortable in the system ran by Bill Belichick and he will take away one Receiver, although Seattle don't have one big threat in those positions. Brandon Browner will want to give away some of the secrets of the Seattle Defense to his team, but the Corner Back can sometimes be a penalty machine in the Secondary and Russell Wilson will know that.

On the other hand, Seattle may not need to make big plays against the Secondary with Marshawn Lynch likely to have a good match up against the Patriots run Defense. New England have actually been an improving unit on the ground, but they haven't faced someone like Lynch who is capable of breaking tackles and creating big gains when there seemingly aren't any.

Lynch might not have the success early in the game, but his style wears down Defenses and the second half might when he explodes for some big gains. The threat is magnified by the fact that Russell Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and making gains on the ground and I think it will be tough for the Patriots unless they jump out to a very big lead.

Wilson helped Green Bay do that with his Interceptions thrown, but it is hard to imagine Seattle making those mistakes again and that should keep the running game very much a part of their plans. I also think the Seattle Defense is going to make enough big plays to keep New England from getting too far ahead and my lean is towards Seattle in this game.

Teams playing in back to back Super Bowls haven't played that well in recent seasons, although the last two have managed to win the game. Prior to that, 5 in a row had lost when returning to the Super Bowl, although the Buffalo Bills have accounted for 2 of those back when they reached the Super Bowl in four straight seasons.

There are other trends that really do favour Seattle in this game including the fact that New England have lost the last 2 Super Bowls they have played, both against the New York Giants and one of those in this Stadium. The Patriots also have to overcome the statistic that shows teams scoring 40 or more points in the Play Offs are just 3-22 against the spread in their next game.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have also raised their game when they meet teams led by Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs and everything is pointing to them being the right side. I do have respect for Bill Belichick and the Defensive game plan he will have put in place with two weeks preparation for this game, but the NFC is the better Conference and I always felt they are the more likely winner of the Super Bowl this season regardless of which team came through.

The NFC are 4-1 in the Super Bowl over the last five seasons and the only exception was the San Francisco 49ers who had shots at the end zone to beat the Baltimore Ravens two years ago. The spread is virtually a pick 'em now so I will just back the Seattle Seahawks to win.

MY PICK: Seattle Seahawks @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)

SuperBowl 46 Pick- New England Patriots v New York Giants

After a tough stretch in the regular season, the post-season has at least been a little better with the picks going 6-4 and with this final game to go... One that I feel will be definitely worth viewing for all.

So how do I think this game will break down:

We all know what the New England Patriots (15-3) are about- It all begins with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, with the other players just fitting into a model of professionalism,  a system that has clearly served them well over the years.

There has always been some special players on either side of the ball that has complemented the two key members of the Patriots, this year being the turn of Rob Gronkowski, but it really all begins and ends with Belichick and Brady.

The big story before this game is the health of Gronkowski, but I would be more than just a little surprised if he does not take part in this game. As you would have heard throughout the week, his running routes do not involve a lot of cuts so his high ankle sprain will be relatively protected unless taken down in a tackle.

The Patriots will look to take their chances against this Giants Secondary, although a lot of their passing prowess is horizontally with routes from the flat rather than the vertical game that took them to their unbeaten path through to the SuperBowl in 2007.

A key to this game is whether the Giants front 4 has been cooled off by the 2 week break between the Conference Championship Games and the game tonight, as they had built a lot of momentum in the last 5 weeks of the season. They should be able to penetrate the Patriots Offensive Line, although I am not a fan of the Giants poking Brady with a big stick and announcing that they think he is a little scared of them.

It is obviously very important for the Giants to get some penetration into the backfield as Brady can be turned into a mere mortal with pressure in his face... If they can do this consistently, it will slow down the Patriots Offense as a whole, while also giving New York their best opportunity to win the game outright.

On the other side of the ball, I do expect Eli Manning to show why he considers himself to be an 'elite' Quarterback and also shoving a few taunts he received in the media back down the throats of those who made them before the season started.

He has his full complement of receivers that will match up very well with the New England Secondary and I expect one of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz to have a big game.

Manning will also be ably backed up by a running game that was non-existent for much of the season, but one that has come alive in the Play Offs. New England were torched effectively by Baltimore and I have no reason to think that New York will not have enough success in this game to keep the chains moving and help keep Brady and the Patriots Offense off the field.

Like a lot of people out there, I do like the Giants to win this game for the following reasons:

First, I think they do generate enough pressure to keep Brady from just sitting in the pocket and decimating the Secondary... That will be the key to this entire pick as it has been the foundation for the Giants moving through to this game.

Second, Eli Manning should be able to have his way with a New England Secondary that struggled to stop Baltimore at times in their game, and I think the Giants are a better Offense than they have faced this season.

Third, the Giants should not have too much fear in this game considering they knocked off the Patriots 4 years ago and they have also been to Foxboro this season and won a game with a last minute drive.

Fourth, the higher seed has gone just 1-11-2 against the spread in the last 14 SuperBowl games.


It should be a fascinating game tonight, but I don't think it will be as high scoring as the layers are expecting and the 54 points looks a touch high to me, although it will get close to the total I am sure.

If you go to the right places, especially if you are in Vegas, it might be a nice little double to play the Giants with the points and taking the under total, although it is a shame we missed the 56 points the total opened up.

You may be a little worried with the Patriots in a 'revenge' spot after losing earlier this season, and they do have an impressive 11-2 record against the spread in such a spot, but I think the Giants are better in all aspects bar the Head Coach and the Quarterback, but even those two spots you would say New York are not too far behind.


MY PICK: New York Giants + 2.5 Points/Under 54 Points Double @ 3.60 (1 Unit) Most British layers will not accept this, but you can use other places OR if you're lucky enough to be in Vegas

NFL Week 1 Picks (Monday Night Football)

I have only the one pick tonight as the New England Patriots visit my Miami Dolphins.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11587-Miami-Dolphins-v-New-England-Patriots.htm)

The full reasoning behind my pick can be seen at the link posted.


MY PICK: New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (3 Units)


WEEK 1 UPDATE: 3-2, - 0.32 Units