Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 7 Picks 2021 (October 2-3)

The next international break is set to begin from Sunday evening through to Saturday 16th October and so it is a big weekend for managers who will want to ease any itchy fingers any owners or boards have over the 'sack' button.

To be fair the majority of the Premier League are likely to be sitting in comfortable seats at the moment, but the two week gap between games is a good chance for any reevaluations to take place. The most concerned may be Daniel Farke at Norwich City, but results can quickly change a mood around the club.

It is how I felt after my worst Fantasy Football GameWeek of the season, but I will discuss that below with two free transfers to be used this week (definitely need to use one or lose one).

Manchester United v Everton Pick: There was a real buzz at Old Trafford at the end of the Champions League win over Villarreal, but the cold light of day shed a different stance on the fixture.

Even the most positive of Manchester United fans would have to accept that they were very fortunate to beat Villarreal with the visitors creating multiple strong opportunities. They could have been out of sight by half time and Manchester United will need to improve massively on that performance with some huge games to come between the October and November international break.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can ill-afford to look too far ahead and has to make sure his team bounce back from the Premier League setback last Saturday. In the same time slot, Manchester United were beaten 0-1 by Aston Villa at Old Trafford and they will need to be better organised and more creative if they are going to earn the three points in this one.

They are facing an Everton team who have earned the same number of points as Manchester United in the Premier League so far this season, but Rafael Benitez' men have not faced too many of the big clubs in the Division. That doesn't take anything away from the 13 points produced, but Everton were beaten 3-0 at Aston Villa two weeks ago and they are potentially going to be without a number of key performers.

Jordan Pickford, Seamus Coleman, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin would all likely be involved in the first eleven, but all could be missing this weekend. As organised as Rafael Benitez will make the visitors, Everton are a team that have been learning what the new manager demands of them and that has seen them concede too many away goals.

Everton do have a good record at Old Trafford in recent years which has to be respected and Manchester United can struggle to break down teams that sit in. However, the ground should be feeling really positive after the win on Wednesday and the fans can inspire the squad to a big performance, one that can give Manchester United something to build upon later this month when bigger tests are to come.

I do think Everton could play their part, but Manchester United should be able to score the goals to secure the three points and end this week with momentum behind them.

Burnley v Norwich City Pick: There are still five teams in the Premier League who are waiting for their first win of the season, but two of those are facing one another on Saturday.

Both Burnley and Norwich City will have likely targeted a fixture like this one for important points in their bid to avoid the drop, but it is the former who have looked stronger this season.

Burnley may not have the points on the board they would have liked, but they have led in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games. Poor finishing and/or game management have let them down at times, but Burnley will feel the opening game is going to be vital in their bid to earn the victory on Saturday.

They have created chances and Burnley were unfortunate to lose to Arsenal in their last League fixture here. A similar level of performance would certainly have Sean Dyche and his players believing they can beat Norwich City, a team who have struggled at this level both in their relegation season in 2019/20 and in the early part of this campaign.

Norwich City have not played too badly at home, but have not been able to negotiate a tough fixture list. However, they have not been so strong away from home and that is where it looks like they could be vulnerable and a poor record at Turf Moor does not really inspire a lot of confidence.

Some believe Norwich City may end up with a new lowest point tally in the top flight since the Premier League was formed in 1992 and there hasn't been much encouragement for them. They have created some chances, but Norwich City have looked seriously vulnerable at the back and Burnley have shown enough going forward to believe they can take advantage of that.

The first goal is likely to be crucial and Burnley have managed to score the opener in 4 of their 6 Premier League games this season. It may just set them on their way to the three points and I think Burnley look likely to earn those this weekend.

Chelsea v Southampton Pick: In recent seasons Southampton have matched up pretty well with Chelsea and it has seen them pick up plenty of positive results against this opponent. They may be encouraged by the fact that Chelsea have lost back to back fixtures, although Ralph Hasenhuttl has to also expect there will be a reaction from the hosts.

The early season results had been decent as far as Chelsea were concerned, but there has been this feeling that they have not been playing as well as they would have liked. Thomas Tuchel will certainly not be happy with some of the attacking displays Chelsea have produced and he will be hoping that Mason Mount can return to offer a creative edge.

No one will dispute the talent that Chelsea have and you have to believe they will begin to get things right, but they look plenty short considering the form of the last week.

Southampton have only lost 2 of their last 7 games at Stamford Bridge and they have already secured draws with the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City this season. Two weeks ago they showed plenty of resiliency to earn a point at the Etihad Stadium, but Southampton have given up some big chances in those draws and that should be encouragement for Chelsea.

It might be a tighter match than expected and Southampton are likely to pose problems from set pieces. However, the feeling is that they are going to want to defend deep and try and catch Chelsea on the counter-attack and it may mean The Saints struggle to create enough to win this game.

Chelsea are not likely to win without some drama on the day, but I do think they will do just enough to do that. They have not played well in their last two games, but The Blues should have enough defensive strength to set their team up for a victory, although it may be a tense atmosphere in West London right through to 5pm on Saturday afternoon.

Romelu Lukaku has had a couple of quiet games, but the big Belgian striker could make the difference for Chelsea. Another home clean sheet could be earned too as Chelsea secure three points that may see them top the Premier League table over the next two weeks.

Leeds United v Wolves Pick: The fans still very much believe that Marcelo Bielsa is going to turn things around for Leeds United who have had a hard time with injury early this season.

They are going to be without a couple of key players on Saturday, but defensive reinforcements could be arriving at the right time with Leeds United looking to secure a first League win of the season. Patrick Bamford is a miss, but I do think the style used by Leeds United means they can make up for that as long as they are responsible defensively.

Having a loud Elland Road behind them should be a boost for Leeds United who will have been sickened by the late goal conceded to West Ham United here last weekend. The visitors probably did enough to deserve the points, but Leeds United have played pretty well against Liverpool and The Hammers and they will feel this is a big step down from the level of those two clubs.

No disrespect will be intended for Watford, but this is a team who have struggled away from home and were very fortunate to earn a 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United last time out. They did crush Norwich City a couple of weeks ago, but Leeds United are a much stronger team than that and Watford have some huge defensive concerns that need to be resolved if they are going to consolidate back at this level.

Watford do have a very good recent record at Elland Road, but the last meeting was back in 2015 and Leeds United will feel this current squad is more than capable of turning the tide on that run. The first goal could be very important for either team, but I think Leeds United are creating enough to believe they can become the latest to expose the Watford back line and the home team can secure a vital victory that can ease any tension developing in the fan base.

Wolves v Newcastle United Pick: This is not as easy a game as the layers may think and that is largely down to the fact that Wolves continue to be a very difficult team to read.

They won last weekend at Southampton in a game where continued poor decisions in the final third may have been costly for what has been a wasteful team this season. Defensively Wolves looked sound, but Bruno Lage likes his teams to get forward and score goals and he is still trying to fit in the right players to his forward line to make sure they are more clinical in front of goal.

This certainly looks like a fixture in which Wolves will find spaces to exploit as Newcastle United continue to give opponents plenty of chances. It cost them two points in the 1-1 draw with Watford last week despite an improved performance, but I do think Newcastle United can be dangerous with the pace they have in the final third.

Last time out, Newcastle United created plenty of chances of their own against Watford, but Steve Bruce has not really seen his team produce consistently. They have matched up pretty well with Wolves if 5 straight 1-1 draws is anything to read into, but this is a more forward thinking Wolves and I think that could be important for them.

Failing to score a home League goal has to be a concern in backing Wolves, but I do think this is an opponent that will present chances to them. Add in the creativity that Wolves have shown and I do think they will have every chance to win this game and, like London buses, a home goal may be something the fans have waited so long for that two come at once.

Brighton v Arsenal Pick: The late Saturday afternoon kick off sees Brighton looking to prove they could potentially be a club challenging for European places at the end of this season.

A late Neal Maupay goal salvaged a point against Crystal Palace last Monday and Brighton are a team playing with confidence. Before that draw, Brighton had won 3 in a row in all competitions and they have looked pretty good at both ends of the field.

However, they are not nearly as dominant as they were on the expected goals stat as they were for much of last season and Brighton may see results just dip over the coming weeks and months. Playing at home will be a boost for a Brighton team that have lost 1 of their last 9 games here in all competitions, but Graham Potter's men are going up against a much improved Arsenal team.

Results have picked up over the last month and that has eased the pressure on Mikel Arteta with his Arsenal team winning 4 in a row in all competitions. The first half blitz of Tottenham Hotspur would have been massively enjoyed by the Arsenal fans, but they had been struggling to convert chances into goals prior to that victory.

It may be another tough outing for them in this game, but they showed resiliency in the 0-1 win at Burnley. Arsenal were perhaps a touch fortunate that day and they will need to be a lot better against a Brighton team that will play their football and look to take the game to their visitors.

Last season both games were tight and competitive and I think this one will be no different. 4 of the last 6 between Brighton and Arsenal have ended with fewer than three goals shared out and there is every chance this is going to be another fixture that trends in that direction.

The first goal could be key in deciding the winner, but I am not anticipating a lot of goals between these clubs on their current form. Both are decent going forward, but they are looking to be defensively responsible as much as possible and it could see the managers looking to make life difficult for the other.

One of these teams failing to score would not be a massive surprise and a relatively low-scoring fixture could develop.

Crystal Palace v Leicester City Pick: They may have created the chances to earn a result in Poland on Thursday night, but Leicester City were beaten 1-0 at Legia Warsaw and they have considerable work to do if they are to progress in the Europa League.

It underlines the poor start made to the 2021/22 season as Leicester City have struggled for consistency. They are conceding too many goals and Leicester City have not been as creative in the final third as they have been over the last couple of years under Brendan Rodgers and there has to be some concern about the opening two months of the season.

A big result on Sunday will at least give Leicester City some confidence before they return in two weeks time to take on Manchester United. They were able to rest some key players, but travelling back from Poland is not ideal for a team that has won 1 of their last 6 games in all competitions.

To compound the issue, Leicester City will be taking on a Crystal Palace team who have looked pretty good over the last month and who will have been resting and preparing for this fixture. Patrick Vieira's tactics have been much more eye-pleasing for the neutrals to enjoy and the Crystal Palace players have responded with some strong performances.

It can be argued that Crystal Palace have deserved more than they have gotten from those fixtures, but Vieira has to be encouraged by what he has seen. His team have created chances in their last couple of home games and they can expose what has been a soft underbelly at Leicester City who have yet to build a partnership at the back with injuries hurting them.

Crystal Palace have only lost 1 of their last 5 at home against Leicester City and I do think they are a surprising home underdog this weekend. On current form, Crystal Palace have every chance of earning the upset outright, but I certainly think they can avoid defeat as they look to keep the points ticking over against an opponent lacking confidence and travelling back from Europe.

Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa Pick: An easy home European game on Thursday evening will have been a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to erase the performance at Arsenal from their minds, but the fans won't have easily forgotten.

It felt like Tottenham Hotspur had waved the white flag very early in the North London derby and they have lost all 3 Premier League games played since the September international break. Even more embarrassing is the fact that Nuno Espirito Santo is known for being defensively well-organised, but Spurs conceded three goals in each defeat to Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Arsenal.

There is a sense of tension around this ground and inside the Stadium and that means there is pressure on the manager to make sure Tottenham Hotspur start much better in this one. They did not play badly in the first half of the 0-3 home defeat to Chelsea, but Tottenham Hotspur are a team lacking confidence and there is a sense of vulnerability when teams get forward and take their chances to attack them.

Dean Smith is likely going to be setting up his Aston Villa team to test this Tottenham Hotspur backline if their performances at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford are anything to go by. They were well beaten at Chelsea in the Premier League, but Aston Villa could have gotten so much more out of that game with better finishing when the game was in the balance.

Last week it looked like poor finishing was going to be costly for Aston Villa again, but a late goal earned them three points at Manchester United. It was another forward thinking system that Dean Smith had Aston Villa playing and I do think they have every chance of matching the win they earned here in May.

This won't be easy if Tottenham Hotspur make a fast start and try and get on top of Aston Villa, but I do think the visitors are being under-rated. They were the better team at Stamford Bridge and the same could be said at Old Trafford, while this is a step down from that level despite the likes of Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane being in the home dressing room.

Beating Mura is a good, confidence boosting result, but Tottenham Hotspur are a little vulnerable. If Aston Villa can score first, I think the home fans could add to the pressure on the Spurs players and it may lead to another big away result for Dean Smith's progressive team.

West Ham United v Brentford Pick: You have to give a lot of credit to both David Moyes and Thomas Frank for not only the results that their respective sides have earned, but the kind of performances that West Ham United and Brentford have put together.

Both of these London clubs may feel there is a big season ahead of them to build on the foundation laid and I do think the fans will have a good game to look forward to.

West Ham United are still trying to find the balance between Europa League and Premier League commitments and I do wonder how they will handle the short turnaround between fixtures. There hasn't been much to worry about in the main, but it could be argued that West Ham United's worst performance of the season came against Manchester United days after Match Day 1 of the Europa League Group Stage.

They were comfortable winners over Rapid Vienna at home on Thursday, whereas the previous Premier League match came after an away game in Croatia, but it is something to consider.

The Hammers are creating chances and they have Michail Antonio in the form of his career leading the line. I certainly think they can challenge a well organised Brentford team who have struggled for goals despite the three they managed against Liverpool.

Brentford have been a breath of fresh air in the top flight and I do think this is a club that is progressing. The development under Thomas Frank makes them a team to be respected and I do think every club in the top flight will have a tough test when visiting the Brentford Community Stadium.

However, I do think home advantage could be key for West Ham United here and that may give them enough of an edge to earn the three points. Nothing will come easy against Brentford this season, but David Moyes' team have been pretty good at the back in recent games and, with Michail Antonio, there is always the quality in the final third which may end up making the difference for the East London club.

Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The top two in the Premier League table going into this weekend will be meeting one another on Sunday afternoon and it is a big chance for Liverpool and Manchester City to lay down a marker for their title ambitions.

Both teams have made a strong start to the season, but there have been a couple of setbacks too. I do think that raises some questions as to the direction this fixture will take, but for the large part you would expect Liverpool and Manchester City to try and impose their game on the other.

They are heading into this weekend off the back of different Champions League away experiences during the week, but Manchester City may feel hard done by in losing at Paris Saint-Germain. The 0-1 win at Stamford Bridge last weekend shows what kind of level Manchester City are still capable of performing at and I think they are going to cause problems for Liverpool.

The key for Manchester City will be getting through what is likely to be an early Liverpool storm, but they have largely been defending pretty well. It took a couple of special goals to break them down in the French capital, while Manchester City were able to keep Chelsea at arm's distance for much of the fixture last weekend.

Liverpool will believe they can do better than Chelsea, while their own defensive performances have been decent enough. Virgil Van Dijk's return has been a huge boost for the home team and I think this is a fixture which is likely to go against the trend of recent Liverpool and Manchester City clashes at Anfield.

4 of the last 5 between these clubs at this ground have ended with at least three goals shared out, but I don't think either manager will want to give too much away here. Manchester City are still lacking goals, especially away from home, while Liverpool will find it tough to break down their visitor's defences.

A tight game is expected between two confident clubs and the feeling is that we will see fewer than three goals on the day with every chance of the points being shared.

MY PICKS: Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals

Burnley

Chelsea Win to Nil

Leeds United & Over 1.5 Goals

Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals

Brighton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals

Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Aston Villa + 0.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United

Liverpool-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 7

That was a hard week to get through.

My decision to essentially pick Mason Greenwood over Diogo Jota looked a poor one, while Cristiano Ronaldo was not able to extend his run of scoring goals on his return to Manchester United and ended any hopes of my Captain salvaging the week.

Injuries to Luke Shaw and Trent Alexander-Arnold have put their participation in doubt for GameWeek 7, but those two players combined for a monster 1 point last time out.

And all in all, a sub-40 point score is an absolute disgrace, although overall I have pushed over the 400 point mark which is the only positive I can lean on after the horrible scenes.

I did manage to hold a Free Transfer through the week and have two for GameWeek 7, although the feeling is that I am going to hold off making both this week.

Initially the plan had been to bring in Romelu Lukaku and another Chelsea player ahead of what looks to be a very promising run of games for that team, but the disappointing last week means I am going to take a risk and have to deal with any fallout of not picking up the Belgian number nine.

Michail Antonio is too important to drop at the moment, while those injuries to key defenders means I am likely going to spend one transfer in that position of my team. I am actually fairly happy with the options I have in the squad, and might even have rolled through this week if that was going to give me another Free Transfer to hold.

There is no doubting the kind of asset Trent Alexander-Arnold can be in this game, but the Liverpool run over the next several weeks may not result in a lot of clean sheets. His attacking starts are obviously highly encouraging, but the groin injury has to be a concern and I do think I can drop him now and bring him back in a month/six weeks when other areas of my team can be downgraded.

An easy choice here looks to be doubling down on the Chelsea defence before their run of games that could easily see the team put a number of clean sheets on the board. It saves some considerable cash with the Alexander-Arnold move to someone like Antonio Rudiger, who looks the most set of the Chelsea back line with Cesar Azpilicueta, and the risk of two defenders from the same team could pay off.

As mentioned before, I had also planned to move Mason Greenwood from my team this week- I like the young Manchester United player and I think he is going to be a star for the club for years to come, but the last couple of weeks have been difficult for the 20 year old. With Jesse Lingard producing off the bench and with Marcus Rashford expected to return in two weeks time (possibly on the bench this weekend) and I do think Mason Greenwood is going to become a rotation casualty.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will want to look after Greenwood and it could be a time to take him out of the starting eleven with senior players in form and returning from injury. With the games coming up, I do think the decision to move Mason Greenwood and pick up Raphinha from Leeds United looks too much to ignore.

Raphinha is someone who looked underpriced in the game, but his form remains exceptionally high, while the attacker has four very good looking fixtures coming up from which he could truly benefit. He could pay immediate dividends in a home game with Watford and Raphinha should be well rested for what is to come next.

Using both Free Transfers without taking a hit will put some pressure on my team if the international break plays havoc as it can do, but I do like the shape it gives my squad and the huge amount of options I have in GameWeek 8 and further ahead into the fixtures coming up.

I don't want to be in a position where I have to take too many hits, but that's an option for GameWeek 8 which I will discuss in the next thread in two weeks time (if needed).

Hopefully I can have a much better week all around this time after the horrible showing in GameWeek 6.

College Football Week 5 Picks 2021 (October 2nd)

Another week of College Football action is set to begin and I am looking for a fourth winning week in succession.

The last couple of weeks have been close run things, but I am hopeful a big week for the College Football Picks is just around the corner.

Texas Longhorns @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: I am never a big fan of being on the same side as the public play and especially not when you think of how poor the Texas Longhorns (3-1) record is against the TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) since the latter joined the Big 12 Conference. The Longhorns have bounced back from a setback against the Arkansas Razorbacks, but they will likely need to run the table in the Big 12 and win the Championship Game if they are going to have any chance of being involved in the College Football PlayOff.

They have begun in a positive manner by absolutely dismantling the Texas Tech Red Raiders, but the TCU Horned Frogs is a different kind of test. Texas have also been boosted by the form that the Razorbacks have continued to produce and it will be a defeat that will largely be ignored if Arkansas are able to beat the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 5.

However, that won't mean anything if the Texas Longhorns cannot win this game before they face the Oklahoma Sooners next week. The performance last week is encouraging and the Longhorns will feel they have finally identified their starting Quarter Back, which should also help with the consistency moving forward.

Hudson Card had begun the season at Quarter Back for Texas, but it was Casey Thompson who dominated the Texas Tech Secondary in Week 4 and he will believe he can pick up from where he left off. The benefit for the Quarter Back is the strong Offensive Line the Longhorns are running onto the field and that has seen Texas pummel teams into submission on the ground.

Bijan Robinson had another huge outing for Texas and he can certainly make life easier for Casey Thompson by establishing the run behind this Offensive Line. The Longhorns are picking 6.1 yards per carry this season and Robinson will be going up against the Horned Frogs Defensive Line which was just trampled by the SMU Mustangs in an upset home loss.

It would be a big surprise if Texas are not able to establish the run and that should put the team in third and short spots at the very least. It is a position that Casey Thompson will be looking to exploit as the Longhorns try and extend their run of drives without the need for a Punt and Texas should have considerable success moving the chains in this game.

Even with that in mind, this is going to be a far from easy game for the Longhorns against the TCU Horned Frogs who have matched up well with them. Gary Patterson will be extremely upset with the way his team played in the defeat to the Mustangs in Week 4 and I do think the Horned Frogs will be a lot stronger all around in this one.

While they may not be able to stop the Texas Longhorns regularly, the TCU Offensive Line has been impressive when setting up the run themselves and we saw Texas struggle to contain that aspect of the Arkansas Offensive unit in the loss earlier this season. The Horned Frogs will look to pound the ball right at the Longhorns and that should give the experienced Quarter Back, Max Duggan, an opportunity for a big showing too.

Both teams should be moving the ball and it may come down to a turnover or two to determine the outcome of this one, but I also think the Texas Longhorns have something to prove which should motivate them plenty. This is the toughest team the TCU Horned Frogs will have faced in 2021, but they are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven against Texas and that really can't be ignored easily.

Texas are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games as the favourite and although they laid an egg in the defeat in Arkansas, I think they can put some momentum behind their performances before the big game with the Oklahoma Sooners. This is a spread where the sharps look to be on the TCU Horned Frogs, but I think the Texas Longhorns may have enough Offensive power and in the Secondary to cover the mark in the road win.

Louisville Cardinals @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: A perfect start to the season for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-0) and that includes winning their opening two ACC Divisional games. With the Clemson Tigers struggling, the Demon Deacons may be a surprising contender to not only win the ACC Championship, but perhaps even earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff.

Dave Clawson has to be demanding his players focus on just getting through to their Bye Week with an unbeaten record and he won't want the Demon Deacons overlooking the Louisville Cardinals (3-1). Wake Forest have already matched the same number of wins recorded in the 2020 season, but it would still be a remarkable achievement for them to win this Division and take part in the ACC Championship Game despite the strong form shown.

Their visitors are also overachieving early in the season. but back to back road games is a tough ask for a Louisville team that had lost some key players on both sides of the ball between the 2020 and 2021 season. Head Coach Scott Satterfield may have been wondering how his future with the Cardinals would shape up as he sat on the hot seat before the season began, but he is Coaching a team that is also being very unfortunate with injuries and so the performances have to be respected.

This is another tough test for the Cardinals, but they have upset their last two opponents as the underdog and it has to be encouraging for Louisville. Malik Cunningham has not really reached his potential at Quarter Back for the Cardinals and the challenge for him this week is how confident he is with his throws rather than his legs.

Malik Cunningham is a dual-threat Quarter Back, but the Wake Forest Defensive Line has been stout against the run and they are looking to force opponents to become one-dimensional when it comes to their Offensive play-calling. The Cardinals Offensive Line has been a little inconsistent in the trenches and I do think Wake Forest can force Cunningham to try and beat them with his arm.

There are one or two holes in the Demon Deacons Secondary so Malik Cunningham can have a big game, but he is likely going to be under pressure from the pass rush. Add in the ball-hawking ability of the Demon Deacons and there is every reason to believe Wake Forest can make enough big plays on this side of the ball to give the unbeaten team a chance of making it five in a row to open the 2021 season.

It feels like the Wake Forest team are going to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball and I do think they are going to be able to establish the run in this one. The Demon Deacons have picked up some big gains on the ground already this season, but they could be further encouraged to run the ball at the Louisville Defensive Line considering they have given up 5.5 yards per carry this season.

Sam Hartman is then able to have success from the Quarter Back position and I do think he will have another decent outing for Wake Forest. You can't underestimate the Louisville Secondary, but if the Demon Deacons are running the ball as effectively as they can, they should be able to open up the Secondary for Hartman.

The Cardinals are 3-11-1 against the spread in their last fifteen as the road underdog and they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against Wake Forest, who will also be looking for revenge after losing to this opponent in 2020.

Wake Forest are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite, and they are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven against Divisional opponents. This is a big spread, but I do think the unbeaten Demon Deacons have the will in the trenches to take the game away from the Louisville Cardinals and cement their position as a big threat to upset the odds and win this Division.

Syracuse Orange @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: There is no doubt that this was going to be a transitional season for the Florida State Seminoles (0-4) in Mike Norvell's second season as Head Coach. They finished with a 3-6 record in 2020, but the Seminoles have been even worse than advertised and you have to serious worry about the Head Coach and his chances of avoiding being fired.

Three of the losses could be somewhat excused, but the Seminoles have also fallen to the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and that might not be the lowest point of the season either. The toughest portion of their schedule comes the other side of their Bye Week and it is imperative for Florida State to make the plays to win this game.

They will be hosting the Syracuse Orange (3-1) who may be benefiting from giving Head Coach Dino Babers an opportunity to improve a team that finished with a 1-10 record in 2020 in his fifth season in charge. A lot of people thought that record would end Babers time in Syracuse, but the Orange have earned a couple of upset wins already and that has seen the team triple the win number from last season and with the majority of the schedule still in front of them.

Opening up in the ACC should see the challenges intensify for Syracuse and the focus in Week 5 will be on Sean Turner who has been identified as a key piece of the Orange Offensive unit even before the season began. The Running Back has lived up to the hype in the first four games and Sean Turner will feel his Offensive Line can help him establish the run in this game.

You have to credit the Seminoles for largely being a strong team against the run, but this is going to be a tough battle for them in the trenches and it will be where Syracuse will be trying to win the game. Running the ball is the main focus, but it will also be key to opening up the Secondary where the Seminoles have made some very questionable decisions as they have tried to stop teams moving the ball up and down the field.

Florida State can have success on the Defensive side of the ball, but I am still surprised to see them set as such a big home favourite considering the limitations they have displayed when they have the ball in their hands. While we don't know how good the Syracuse Defensive unit can be without seeing them against better teams, they will believe they can at least restrict the Florida State Offense and that will make it very difficult for the home team to cover the spread here.

The Orange Defensive Line looked like a potential strength for the team before the season began and they have been incredibly stout up front. Making Florida State one-dimensional would be a massive win for Syracuse and would allow them to take advantage of the Seminoles Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection.

Syracuse have had an effective pass rush all season and they can give McKenzie Milton some questions at Quarter Back, even if Milton is massively experienced in College Football and also a story that most neutral fans can easily get behind. The lack of a real pass protection has hurt the McKenzie Milton Quarter Back numbers and this Orange Secondary have also thrived by the pressure being brought up front which is taking time away when players are throwing at them.

Slowing down the Florida State Offensive unit will give the Orange every chance of the upset, but they should certainly be good enough to keep this one close as long as Sean Turner can establish the run.

Playing Florida State has been very difficult for Syracuse in recent years, but this Seminoles team may be the worst one they have seen in Tallahassee in a long time. The Seminoles are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite, while Syracuse are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog.

You may expect a big reaction from a 0-4 Florida State team, but they are 1-7 against the spread following a loss under Mike Norvell and I simply don't think they are capable of blowing out this Divisional rival.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: There are some incredibly high hopes surrounding this Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) team, but an unbeaten start to the season has not really matched those expectations. No one would have realistically expected the Sooners to lose any of their first four games, but they have been struggling Offensively and it is actually the loaded Defensive unit which has proven to be the difference maker for them.

Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma Sooners have averaged at least 42 points per game in each of his four years as Head Coach here, but they are just shy of 39 points per game this season. Even that does not tell the full story with Oklahoma blowing out an overmatched FCS team, but only managing 39 points in total in their last two wins over the Nebraska Cornhuskers and West Virginia Mountaineers.

An expected push for a National Championship was based on the fact that the Sooners would now have a Defensive unit that could make the Offensive powerhouse they have been, but only the Defensive side of the ball has stood up so far. The Sooners are likely going to need that unit to have another big outing when taking on the Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) who are looking to bounce back from a defeat to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Week 4.

Kansas State will be encouraged by the fact that the Oklahoma Sooners have lost four times over the last two seasons and it is the Wildcats who have produced half of those defeats. However, it is hard to really be excited about a hat-trick of upsets in favour of the Wildcats considering they are without Skylar Thompson, the starting Quarter Back, and have been struggling on the Offensive side of the ball without him.

A committee at Quarter Back is far from ideal, and that is only made worse by the fact that the Kansas State Offensive Line are unlikely to have an opportunity to bully what has been a very stout Oklahoma Defensive Line. Clamping down on the run will put a lot of pressure on Will Howard and Jaren Lewis with their limited experience at this level.

The Wildcats have not been as confident throwing the ball without their starting Quarter Back, while struggles to run the ball is likely going to see the Oklahoma pass rush get the better of the Wildcats. It will likely mean a tough afternoon moving the ball with consistency and it may give the Sooners an opportunity to produce their best win of the season to underline their hopes of becoming a National Champion.

Spencer Rattler will be feeling the pressure and the Quarter Back has not really come close to matching the Heisman Trophy levels that many believed he would be operating at. The fans have gotten on his back at times with the lack of consistency making their patience wear thin, but the Sooners are still behind Rattler.

It may be on Spencer Rattler to win this game because the Kansas State Defensive Line has been very stout against the run and they may be able to contain the Sooners, even though the Offensive Line has been bullying in the trenches. There may be some pressure on Spencer Rattler if the Sooners are not able to establish the run in the manner they have been able to do in the first four weeks of the season.

However, there are issues in the Wildcats Secondary and this is a big chance for Spencer Rattler to show why so many believed he might even be the top Quarter Back to move into the NFL. Kansas State have been able to turn the ball over, but I do think the Wildcats could struggle Offensively which may give the visitors the chance to cover the spread.

The Sooners are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road favourite and I do think this spread would be much greater if Oklahoma had matched the expectations. Kansas State have long been an underdog that is worth giving plenty of respect, but they were beaten by double digits by the Oklahoma State Cowboys and I am looking for the Oklahoma Sooners to show off their National Championship aspirations with a big win.

Mississippi Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This is a game that many would have been looking forward to after the meeting between these schools in Oxford in 2020, and the spread is much tighter this time around compared with the one we saw last year. The hype will not have slowed down after both the Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) and Mississippi Rebels (3-0) have begun this season unbeaten.

The winner of this game may feel that the SEC West is a Division they can go on and win, but neither team can afford to look beyond their opponent in Week 5. The Mississippi Rebels are coming in off a Bye Week and extra preparation time for Lance Kiffin as Head Coach can only be beneficial for the Rebels.

He will know what to expect from the Alabama Offensive unit, but the Mississippi Rebels have not played anyone of the level of the Crimson Tide. Bryce Young has underlined his status as one of the top Quarter Backs in College Football and I do think the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to challenge the Rebels Defensive unit way more than the other schools they have faced.

There was an expectation that the Mississippi Defensive unit would be much stronger in 2021 compared with 2020 with nine starters back on this side of the ball. The Defensive Line has been playing really well and the Rebels have been able to generate a strong pass rush, but beating on the Alabama Offensive Line is a huge challenge for any team in the nation.

Having Bryce Young at Quarter Back also means Alabama have a genuine threat against the Rebels Secondary which has given up some plays to weaker Quarter Backs faced so far this season. It is certainly an Alabama Offensive unit that will have learnt a lot from the film when they racked up 63 points against the Mississippi Rebels in 2020, although the Rebels managed to score 48 points of their own last season.

Matt Corral gave Alabama plenty to think about in that game last season and he has opened this season like a leading contender for the Heisman at the end of the season. Beating the Crimson Tide on the road would be an achievement that could almost wrap up that individual trophy for the Quarter Back, but this is one of the best Defensive units in the nation.

Lane Kiffin's experience with the Crimson Tide and his Offensive mind should give Matt Corral plenty of chances to be placed in positive positions on the field. However, the Quarter Back is not likely to have the same kind of support on the ground that he has experienced so far in 2021 and it could be a big test of the Rebels Offensive Line that has had one or two difficulties when it comes down to the pass protection.

Even then, Matt Corral is likely to have a decent showing and he can make the Rebels competitive and I think Mississippi are right to be excited about this opportunity. However, I also think this is a game that Nick Saban would have been circling before the season began and he is going to be pushing his team to put down a marker for the rest of the 2021 regular season.

The Rebels have been a very good road underdog to back, but Alabama are 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven games as the home favourite. Despite the huge performance from Mississippi in their game last season, they were still beaten by 15 points and I think Alabama will be much more prepared and with a stronger Defensive unit going into this season.

It won't be easy and the backdoor cover may be open for the Rebels right down to the end of the Fourth Quarter, but the Alabama Crimson Tide look powerful and they will be much more prepared for this test this time around. Covering won't be easy, but being at home should see Alabama have enough of an edge and I will back them to do that.

Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: A big road win at the Ohio State Buckeyes means the Oregon Ducks (4-0) are going to be very high up on the list of potential College Football PlayOff teams as long as they remain focused on games as they come. They are the favourites to win the Pac-12 and if they can do that unbeaten, Oregon are surely going to be playing in the final four of the 2021 season.

The next challenge in front of them is a game against the Stanford Cardinal (2-2) who have been very hard to read from week to week and who are coming in off a defeat to the UCLA Bruins. They have upset the USC Trojans already this season and that is the kind of result that has to give the Ducks plenty of reason to be focused on the task at hand.

They have earned fewer yards than their opponent in three of the four games played this season though and Stanford are going to find it very difficult against the Ducks, even though they are hosting this game. It does feel like the Cardinal do not match up Offensively with the Oregon Defensive unit and that is going to be an issue for them in Week 5.

It is clear that the Cardinal need to run the ball effectively if they are going to set up the rest of their Offensive game plan, but Stanford's Offensive Line will struggle against Oregon up front. The Ducks, on the other hand, have had issues defending the pass as teams have been forced to play keep up with them, but I am not convinced that Tanner McKee has the consistency to expose Oregon in this one.

The Quarter Back will likely have some pressure around him if the Cardinal are not able to establish the run and I think that will give Oregon an opportunity to put another statement road win in the books.

Moving the ball should be something that Oregon are able to do throughout this game and that is because they are likely to have a lot more balance with their Offensive play-calling. The key is the Oregon Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes up front and this Stanford Defensive Line is not of the level we have come to expect from this school.

The Ducks have been moving the ball on the ground really well and they should be able to get CJ Verdell going against a Stanford team that have allowed 5.4 yards per carry. Being set up in third and manageable spots is the key for the Oregon Ducks who can then use play-action to expose the Secondary and continue putting up some big Offensive numbers.

With little pass rush pressure, Oregon should be able to have a very strong day on the Offensive side of the ball and they can maintain their unbeaten start to the 2021 season.

The favourite has covered in five in a row in this series and I do think the Oregon Ducks can extend that run even with this big spread in mind.

You would think there will be plenty of motivation in the Stanford Cardinal locker room when they see how much they have been written off by the oddsmakers, but they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog. That includes dropping a game in that spot last week against the UCLA Bruins and Oregon should have enough here.

MY PICKS: Texas Longhorns - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Syracuse Orange + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

West Virginia Mountaineers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baylor Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Michigan State Spartans - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2020 (October 2nd)

The poor weather has not arrived in Paris through the first five days of the Autumn French Open, but the luck of the tournament may have run out when Day 6 gets going.

At least the event has managed to complete the first two Rounds of the tournament and that should mean there is enough play time to keep the French Open on schedule, although I would not be surprised to see some delays through the day.

The Philippe-Chatrier court will be unaffected though as the roof is likely going to be employed throughout the day, although the conditions maybe another real challenge for the players who are much used to being at Roland Garros when the weather is naturally that much warmer.

It has been a bit of a disappointing tournament for the Tennis Picks and I do think the nature of the scheduling has meant I have not made adjustments to the selection methods as I should have done. Those methods have produced three winning seasons in a row and had a very good Australian Open, but the new Tour schedule has made things much more difficult.

I wish I could simply say it is bad luck, but I have identified some very poor selections and I am looking for much better in the final days of the French Open.

Dominic Thiem - 7.5 games v Casper Ruud: There is no doubt that Casper Ruud is a very competent clay court player and I would not be overly concerned by the fact that he had to come through a five set match in the Second Round. It wasn't a long match against Tommy Paul, but Casper Ruud should not have been pushed that far by an opponent who is nowhere near the level that he is going to have to deal with on Friday.

Playing Dominic Thiem on the clay courts has long been a very difficult challenge as the Austrian looks to extend his run to five consecutive years reaching the French Open Semi Final. In fact Dominic Thiem has reached the Final in both 2018 and 2019 and now he is a Grand Slam Champion having picked up the title in New York City and I do think that is going to give Thiem plenty of confidence.

His first two Rounds have underlined how good Thiem is feeling having won all six sets competed and largely dominated the matches. The serve has been a big weapon for him, while Thiem has admitted he probably enjoys the conditions more than most having grown up and played tennis in similar conditions back home.

The colder weather and the heavier courts and balls means Dominic Thiem can really take his place behind the baseline on the return of serve and force players to try and hit through his strong defences. Like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem can set his stall out to frustrate opponents and then push forward and use his own aggression to dominate rallies and break down the player on the other side of the net.

It won't be easy to do that against Casper Ruud considering how well he has played on the clay courts. However I do think it is hard to ignore the fact that Ruud has a losing record against top 20 players on the clay courts and his numbers do take quite a serious dip in those matches, while his two losses in preparation events have come against Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev and both were in fairly comfortable wins for those two players.

Last year it was Roger Federer who did for Casper Ruud at the French Open and that was another fairly routine win for another top ten Ranked opponent. Casper Ruud has been serving well on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons, but those numbers also decline significantly when facing the better players on the Tour and that is where I think Dominic Thiem will break his game down and eventually pull away for a big win.

In the coming years Casper Ruud should improve and get closer to the better players on the clay courts, but that is unlikely to occur in this Third Round match.

Caroline Garcia + 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There have been some big names that the home fans have placed their hopes with when it comes to a French player winning at Roland Garros, but it does feel like there is not the same sense of expectation on them with the limited crowds allowed to attend this event.

It is very possibly going to make the French players produce without the usual pressures on their shoulders, although it is a long shot for a home favourite to take the time.

The best player positioned to perhaps do that might be Caroline Garcia who has long failed to fulfil the kind of potential so many had for her. She has played well in her first two matches here which is a far cry from the levels she has produced on the clay heading into the French Open and Garcia has both handled being a favourite and an underdog on her way through to the Third Round.

Unsurprisingly she is the underdog in this match against Elise Mertens who has produced some consistent results on all surfaces over the last two seasons. She is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, although the Belgian needs to show she can beat some of the better players on the Tour on a regular basis if she is going to be considered a genuine Grand Slam winner in the making.

Elise Mertens had a very solid 7-3 record on the clay courts prior to the French Open beginning and she has been a pretty good winner in both matches played here. However it should be noted that while she does produce the wins, Mertens is not an overwhelming player on this surface and that should mean there are chances for Caroline Garcia to keep this close if not quite able to go on and complete the upset.

The Frenchwoman has won both previous matches against Elise Mertens although both were played on the hard courts. As well as Mertens has played on the clay, she isn't returning as well as she would like and I do think Caroline Garcia is able to serve well enough to give herself a real chance here.

She should also have the opportunities to break serve and I think everything is pointing to a pretty close match here and that makes this amount of games being given to the underdog look incredibly high. Elise Mertens could try and frustrate with her defensive skills on what is a slow clay court, but Caroline Garcia has handled herself well in this tournament and she can trouble the Belgian who has not always been at her best against the best.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 7.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Anna Schmiedlova @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tsvetana Pironkova @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pedro Martinez - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannick Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

NBA Finals Picks 2020- Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat (September 30-October 12)

NBA Finals 2020- Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat

I am going to have a few more words to say about this Series when Game 1 is in the books, but for now you can read my thoughts about the opening tip of the NBA Finals below.

Wednesday 30th September

Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals are here and the easy storyline is LeBron James going up against the team he has won the majority of his NBA Championships with. After moving to the Western Conference there was always a chance that James would meet one of his former teams, but not many would have expected that this season.

The Miami Heat need to be given a lot of respect for not only coming through the Eastern Conference, but only dropping three games despite seeing off the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. There is a real stubbornness about this team that never seems to know when they may be beaten and they have had some of their role players stepping up and becoming much more than that in the PlayOffs.

Jimmy Butler is without a doubt the leader of the team and he has finally made it to the NBA Finals having not quite done enough when with the Chicago Bulls, Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers. He is helping some of his team-mates become better players, but it is the improvement of Bam Adebayo which has been instrumental for the Heat.

They will need Adebayo to have overcome a couple of physical issues that he was dealing with in the Eastern Conference Finals, especially as he may be the main player that is going up against Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The Heat will believe that in Butler, Adebayo and Goran Drajic they have the experience to help some of the other players make an impact in the biggest Series of their careers.

Miami have been shooting the ball well and they are going to need their three point shooters to have their rhythm very quickly if the underdog is going to make this a real Series. Those players have to take advantage of the spaces that the Lakers have left for teams on the outside and especially early in the NBA Finals before the adjustments are going to be made.

Ultimately the Lakers are favourites because they still have the best basketball player in the world in their rotation. LeBron James has been playing like that, but the Heat have enough Defenders to try and slow him down and at least force someone other than James and Davis to beat them in this Series.

The role players have not always been the most consistent, but the Lakers have gotten enough from them although there is a feeling that they do have the lack of consistency that can lead to some huge cold shooting spots. This time they are facing a Heat team who are arguably the best Defensive team the Lakers have seen in the PlayOffs and that brings its own challenges to the fore.

LeBron James would have been motivated anyway, but the chance to get one over on Pat Riley after the acrimonious end to their relationship in Miami is going to fuel him even more. There will be a healthy respect for Erik Spoelstra who is showing himself to be a really strong Head Coach, but you can understand why the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be favoured in the NBA Finals.

The Lakers have started slowly in Series in the PlayOffs though and I think that may give Miami the chance to at least push them all the way in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Heat do look to match up pretty well with the Lakers with their role and bench players making things a little closer even though Los Angeles Lakers will be hard to knock off.

It was the Lakers who won both regular season games, but those were played in the 2019 calendar year and Miami are much improved now. They have also coped with the bubble very well and I like the way the Heat are operating at the moment, although they do live or die by the three point shot.

Out of the two teams the Heat have dealt with the break between games better than the Lakers as far as the against the spread numbers are concerned. LeBron James' teams have also tended to come out slowly out of the game in the PlayOff Series he has played and I think that could be the case here in Game 1.

Friday 2nd October

Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 2 Pick: The First Quarter was going to plan for the Miami Heat and maybe they thought things were going to be too easy for them in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. After an early 13 point lead, the Heat were obliterated by the Los Angeles Lakers for around 25 minutes and found themselves 87-55 down in the middle of the Third Quarter.

It would be easier to imagine things are going to change if Miami had not seen Goran Drajic and Bam Adebayo both banged up to the point that their status is in question for Game 2. Neither player will want to be sitting on the sidelines, but it is hard to imagine either being effective and this looks a terrible match up for the Heat.

They simply were not able to stop the Lakers when the Western Conference Champions got on a roll and they were dominated on the boards. Finding the answers to that is not going to be easy, especially if Miami are short-handed for this one and the layers have responded by making the Lakers a much bigger favourite in Game 2 than they were in Game 1.

Jimmy Butler has urged his team-mates to play with more aggression and belief in this one having given up a big lead with some poor Defensive effort. That would have been easier without the injuries they are dealing with and I really do struggle to see Miami competing.

In saying that Game 2 should be the one moment where the Heat rally around one another and put in the best effort they can without two of their three best players. That is something the Los Angeles Lakers will be expecting having taken the best punch in Game 1 and turning things around in their favour.

Anthony Davis and LeBron James are the best players on the court and both were very strong in their opening win. It is hard to believe that the two are going to be fatigued or looking too far ahead and everything is pointing to the Lakers moving into a 2-0 lead.

The spread may be more interesting than most will believe as I imagine the Lakers are going to be a popular play. With a big effort put in by Miami, the Heat should be looking to keep tabs with the Lakers by putting in a huge Defensive stand to slow down the favourites.

Even if they can't the feeling is that Miami may struggle with the depth of their rotation and I think that is going to lead to a game that may narrowly miss the over again.

It came close to the point of covering in Game 1, but that was largely down to the Lakers and I do think the best chance Miami have is by slowing things down and winning the battle on the boards. As long as they are much more competitive than in Game 1, it may just slow the scoring enough in this one too.

MY PICKS: 30/09 Miami Heat + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

02/10 Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat Under 216.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (October 1-3)

Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes centre stage during the week and I am looking to open up October in the same fashion in which September ended.

It was a much stronger month than August, and it was good to wipe out the poor first month of the 2019/20 season. I do want to kick on now and really start producing some strong returns to move forward and the few selections during this week will hopefully begin to do that.


I had wrote a short piece about Manchester United prior to their League Cup win over Rochdale which can be read here. They have an important game in the Europa League this week and a win would mean Manchester United can start thinking about Qualifying for the Last 32 with a couple of games to spare and that is important for a thin squad that will need some rest ahead of the busy December period that all English clubs face.


Onto the Champions League Picks from Match Day 2 and the update to the season totals below.


Real Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: You don't want to completely rule out Club Brugge causing problems for Real Madrid considering how they played in the Group Stage of the Champions League twelve months ago. Atletico Madrid needed late goals to see them off and Borussia Dortmund had to settle for a draw with them at home, while Real Madrid seem to be playing with some vulnerable confidence at the moment.

Even then it is hard to see Real Madrid doing anything but bouncing back after the 3-0 defeat in Paris on Match Day 1. They have looked very good in the League since that defeat to move to the top of the Spanish top flight, and Real Madrid have shown some resiliency with 3 clean sheets in a row.

The return of Nacho and Sergio Ramos will help and I do think Real Madrid are very dangerous at home where they are looking to snap a run of consecutive Champions League defeats. The side have scored at least twice in their last couple of wins here overall and Real Madrid should be able to get on the front foot against Club Brugge who were beaten heavily at Salzburg in the Europa League Last 32 last season.

Club Brugge will be playing with the belief of a team that is unbeaten in 14 games to open the 2019/20 season, but that may not be enough. They can create chances here with the spaces Real Madrid tend to leave behind when getting forward, but I am not sure it will be enough to really challenge a team who want to get this Group back on the right track.

Last season late goals saw Atletico Madrid pull clear of Club Brugge and I think Real Madrid will match that margin of victory.


Galatasaray v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: I really did fancy Paris Saint-Germain to get the better of Real Madrid on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage, but injuries to the front three tempered by enthusiasm for them. It ultimately proved to be little problem for the French Champions who deservedly won on the day and Paris Saint-Germain have to be looking to secure a Last 16 place as soon as possible.

Wins over Galatasaray and then in the double header with Club Brugge over the next month will put Paris Saint-Germain through to the Last 16 and I do think they are capable of doing that.

Both away games will be difficult beginning with this trip to Istanbul, but Paris Saint-Germain have won 7 of their 12 away Champions League Group games and they have also won back to back away games in the competition overall at Crvena Zvezda and Manchester United.

Playing in Istanbul is rarely an easy task for any team in European Football and Galatasaray are unbeaten in 14 at home in all competitions. That has to be respected, but both Porto and Benfica won here in the Champions League and Europa League respectively last season and this Paris Saint-Germain team are stronger than those two even without Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

This won't always be easy for Paris Saint-Germain, but they have been defending well enough in recent away games to lay the foundation for success here. The chances created in Bordeaux is encouraging even if they have been lacking goals away from home and I think there is enough here to back Paris Saint-Germain to record a good looking win on the night and earn their third away win in a row in the Champions League.


Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The layers are not going to be offering anything too short in terms of a margin of victory for Manchester City in this fixture and I am not surprised when you think of the amount of goals the English Champions have been scoring. It is very difficult to see how Dinamo Zagreb are going to keep it competitive against a team who have scored four or more goals in 3 of their last 4 home Champions League games.

The win over Atalanta will make Dinamo Zagreb believe, but that was at home and this is a club who have lost 12 away games in a row in the Champions League Group Stage. A lot of those defeats have been by wide margins and I think Manchester City have rested enough big name players to believe they are going to produce a very strong win in this one.

It is a big Asian Handicap though and it will need a three goal margin of victory to secure a full payout, but I would be surprised if Manchester City did not win by that margin. The defensive problems are a concern as one goal for the visitors would make it very difficult to see how Manchester City can cover the number, but I think Dinamo Zagreb will soon see this as a damage limitation exercise.

Fast starts have been common for Manchester City since the 3-2 defeat to Norwich City and they have scored within 25 minutes in each of the four wins since then. Another one would set them up for a big win on Tuesday and put Manchester City in a very strong position to Qualify and win this Group before the end of November.

I think Dinamo Zagreb will find their 4-0 win over Atalanta on Match Day 1 has not really prepared them for a test like this and Manchester City can win easily enough on the day.


Barcelona v Inter Milan Pick: It sounds like Barcelona will have some attacking players back in contention for a starting spot for the Match Day 2 game in the Champions League, although Lionel Messi is a doubt.

Both Barcelona and Inter Milan drew their opening Champions League games which has increased the importance of this one as they look to get going in a difficult looking Group. The Barcelona draw in Dortmund certainly looks more positive than the home draw Inter Milan had with Slavia Prague and I do think the Italian club are built for success domestically and perhaps not in the European competitions.

Inter Milan appointed Antonio Conte to break the Juventus domination of Serie A and the manager has had his best successes in domestic competitions. He has struggled for an impact in the Champions League and Inter Milan looked short of ideas in their home draw with Slavia Prague.

Now they have to face a Barcelona team that remain very strong at home and who have won 29 of 32 games at the Nou Camp in the Champions League. A Lionel Messi-less Barcelona beat Inter Milan 2-0 here last season and I think they can do the same on Wednesday on Match Day 2 of the Group Stage this time around too.

Barcelona have been scoring plenty of goals at home and they should be able to break down an Inter Milan team who do have questions to answer at the back. The Italian side will head to Spain with some confidence from their League form and they do have attacking players to make a difference, but Barcelona should be too strong on the day.

Backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap is the selection.


Lille v Chelsea Pick: Both Lille and Chelsea were beaten on Match Day 1 of the Champions League which means this could be a vital game for both in their bids to get Qualification to the Last 16 back on track.

This should be a good match with both Lille and Chelsea capable of playing impressive attacking football while perhaps not looking as secure at the back as they would like.

Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every away game played under Frank Lampard and Lille have managed two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 home games going back to last season. All four played this season have seen Lille hit that mark so they will feel they can get hurt their visitors on Match Day 2.

On the other side Chelsea have scored eight goals in their last couple of away games and played well on their travels in the Europa League last season. The Blues have scored at least three goals in their last 2 away games at Norwich City and Wolves, and I do think they can challenge a Lille team who won't have faced too many teams of the quality of Chelsea on a regular basis.

Both teams will feel they can get on the scoreboard here and the importance of the three points should help encourage an attacking and expansive game. Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call here.


Liverpool v Salzburg Pick: This has the makings of a really good Champions League game with the approach that both Liverpool and Salzburg will take to the game.

While many teams will head to Anfield and look to be tight and well organised defensively, Salzburg have shown in the last couple of years in the Europa League that they are willing to take chances with their attacking play. Last season they were beaten 3-0 in Naples in the Europa League Last 16, but Salzburg created plenty of good chances of their own and they must recognise that the Liverpool defence is not playing as well as it was last season.

The absence of Alisson does leave Liverpool a little vulnerable at the back, but attacking this team at Anfield can expose defences to the much vaunted front three who should all be starting for the home team. Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have the perfect blend of pace and creativity in the final third and I do expect they will be in a position to hurt Salzburg in this one too.

Liverpool have been very strong at Anfield and 10 of their last 11 here have ended with wins by two or more goals. They also have won 7 of their last 8 at home in the Champions League and I do think the defeat in Napoli on Match Day 1 will focus the players for a big performance here.

I would not be surprised if Salzburg score here, but I think their attacking intent will leave them open to the home team too. It could be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals when two attacking teams take the field, but at the end of the fixture I would expect Liverpool have won by a good margin.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lille-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)