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Showing posts with label October 3rd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label October 3rd. Show all posts

Friday, 3 October 2025

College Football Week 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 3rd October-Saturday 4th October)

When you look back at the results and being on the wrong side of four results by a combined nine points, frustration will set in.

That was the way things worked out in Week 5 and it could have been a much different story if not for a few breaks going the wrong way.

There is still a number of weeks to negotiate between now and the National Championship Game in January and so time to turn things back around, but it would be good to snap a poor run with a solid week.


West Virginia Mountaineers @ BYU Cougars Pick: They opened the 2025 Big 12 schedule play with a road win and the BYU Cougars (4-0) have to feel very confident about their chances of going a little better than last season. Missing out on the tie-breaker for the Championship Game will have stung, but this is a team that looks like it is playing with a real ambition in mind and they are continuing to roll even as injuries have been piling up.

It is the depth that looks like being a potential issue for the Cougars with the Running Back position causing most concern, but starter LJ Marin is available on this short week.

The Cougars are perhaps fortunate to be facing the West Virginia Mountaineers (2-3) who have lost both Big 12 Conference games without offering much resistance at all. Those defeats to the Kansas Jayhawks and Utah Utes have been by 31 points and 34 points respectively and the upset over the Pittsburgh Panthers feels like a long time ago for the team.

Much like the hosts, the West Virginia Mountaineers are a little banged up, although they are down more important players.

In Week 6, the Mountaineers are set to be without starting Quarter Back Nicco Marchial again having seen him miss the thumping loss to the Utah Utes. Backup Jaylen Hendersen did not impress at all and was benched before the second half began, and it will be a real test for him if he is called to start again or for Khalil Wilkins, despite the solid enough performance in the second half against the Utes.

This Cougars Defensive Line is stout up front and they will look to clamp down on the Mountaineers running game and force the Quarter Back to beat them, no matter whether that is Hendersen or Wilkins.

Playing from behind the chains will mean having to deal with a real pass rush pressure and trying to attack a Cougars Secondary that have continued to produce at a high level.

Turnovers are a potential problem for the Mountaineers and those extra possessions would give the home favourite a huge chance to cover what is a big line.

The difference between the teams Offensively is that the BYU Offensive Line is likely to establish the run and give LJ Martin plenty of room to keep his personal numbers ticking over nicely. An extra wrinkle was seen last week with Quarter Back Bear Bachmeier picking up almost 100 yards on the ground and it should mean the Cougars are playing in front of the chains for much of the evening.

It only makes life easier for Bachmeier if he steps back to throw the ball down the field against a Mountaineers Secondary that have allowed Quarter Backs to have success against them. There should be time given to the Bear Bachmeier if the BYU Cougars are running the ball as expected, and it should mean BYU are able to keep the ball moving effectively and efficiently for much of the contest.

Covering this big number is not going to be easy for a Cougars team that have not been that accustomed to being set as a home favourite, but they have been playing with real confidence.

At the same time, West Virginia have struggled massively since stepping up into Big 12 play and the backup Quarter Backs could have real issues making play against a good looking Cougars Defensive unit. A turnover or two may be needed to get over this line, but the Cougars can give the Offensive a couple of short fields with three and outs and that should help the BYU at least get up to a 20 point win.


Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: In previous years, one defeat in the regular season would have been enough to cost a team the opportunity to finish as National Champions, but that is not the case in 2025.

With that in mind, it is important for the Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) to get back on track after losing to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 5. The schedule will still pit them against the likes of Ole Miss and Texas to show the Playoff Committee what they are all about, while the SEC is a tough Conference and it would be a really big surprise if two unbeaten teams were to compete in the Championship Game in a couple of months time.

The Bulldogs have had some difficult tests against the Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) in recent years, despite continuing to find a way to earn the win- last season the Wildcats came incredibly close to a home upset, but were beaten 13-12, while they have given the Mississippi Rebels something to think about earlier this season.

A second SEC defeat was more worrying for Kentucky having been crushed by the South Carolina Gamecocks, and the team may be arriving in a tough scheduling spot as well as being banged up at the wrong time.

Kentucky are set to have veteran Quarter Back Zach Calzada back behind Center having missed out with an injury following the defeat to the Mississippi Rebels. Without him, the Wildcats were much more experienced at this important position and they should be much the stronger with Calzada, although there are going to be questions about his overall health.

The match up against this Georgia Defensive unit looks a tough one- the Wildcats want to get behind the Offensive Line and establish the run, while the passing game has been a touch erratic. However, stopping the run has been something that the Georgia Defensive Line pride themselves in doing, and it is actually the Secondary which has been exposed by Tennessee and Alabama.

This time the Bulldogs may feel that their superior talent can come out on top, especially if Zach Calzada's shoulder is still not at 100%. The Bulldogs may also get a little more out of the pass rush against an Offensive Line that has not been as good in pass protection as they have been in run blocking and that should mean Georgia control this game.

There will be some envious eyes in Athens who have one eye on Carson Beck and his performances at Quarter Back for the Miami Hurricanes and so there is some pressure on Gunnar Stockton after a relatively poor performance against Alabama.

It is unlikely to be all on Stockton's arm though with the Bulldogs Offensive Line expected to help establish the run and that should allow the Quarter Back to find a bit more time in the pocket. He is also going to be throwing against a Kentucky Secondary that has struggled to make stops at times and the balance Offensively gives the Bulldogs the platform from which to bounce back from the loss last weekend.

This is a big line, but Head Coach Kirby Smart has led the Bulldogs to a 10-6 record against the spread after a loss.

Last year was a close, competitive battle between these SEC teams, but two years ago Georgia crushed Kentucky by 38 points here and an angry home team may be able to create a couple of turnovers to pull clear in this one.


Clemson Tigers @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The move from the NFL to Head Coach in College for the first time was always going to be a challenge, but the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-2) may have surprised Bill Belichick. The transfer portal can perhaps help turn things around quicker these days than in the past, but the Tar Heels finished 6-7 in 2024 and there will have been a lot of changes for the players to have to take in.

The disappointment is that the Tar Heels have been so uncompetitive when facing the Power 4 teams on the schedule, and they have been outscored 23-82 in those two games.

It makes the wins over outmatched opponents feel a little more than bullying, but the Tar Heels have an opportunity to change the narrative when hosting the Clemson Tigers (1-3).

There have been one or two murmurings of discontent about the job Head Coach Dabo Swinney is doing with the Tigers in recent years, but they were back in the Playoffs in 2024 and won at least ten games again. That helped quiet some of those voices, but it will have been very loud around Swinney over the last couple of weeks after Clemson were blown out by Syracuse and already 0-2 within the Conference.

It is a long path back towards relevancy, and Clemson are clinging on by their fingernails as far as a return to the Playoff is concerned. Winning out is all they can control and the hope is that the two week break will have given the team a chance to reset and get back on the horse.

Cade Klubnik has been one of the leading disappointments early in the 2025 season, but the Quarter Back will feel he is up against a team that will allow him to at least showcase some of his talent.

The help will come from the Offensive Line as they look to establish the run and at least put their Quarter Back in a position where he can throw from in front of the chains. Clemson still have talent and running the ball would also mean Cade Klubnik has time to attack this Secondary, although the lack of a North Carolina pass rush early in the season is a real concern for the Tar Heels.

Like the Tigers, North Carolina are playing after a Bye Week following a crushing defeat to the UCF Knights, while they were battered at home by the TCU Horned Frogs to open the season.

Quarter Back play has been inconsistent and North Carolina may have to start with a backup in Max Johnson if Gio Lopez is still struggling.

Regardless of who plays, the pressure will likely be on their shoulder with the North Carolina Offensive Line yet to find a groove up front to get the run game firing. They are not expected to have a lot of joy against this Clemson Defensive Line, while the Quarter Back, whether that is Lopez or Johnson, have been inconsistent.

This makes it tough to believe the Tar Heels can become the latest to try and exploit the gaps in the Clemson Secondary, while turnovers in the passing game have been costly too.

North Carolina may have some successes having seen the Clemson Defensive unit struggling, but those turnovers could ultimately lean this game in favour of the road team and they can come out on top.

Bill Belichick has a strong record when his team have been set as double digit underdogs, but that is in the NFL and he is facing a Coach who has led his team to an 8-3 record against the spread in the last eleven following a loss. Dabo Swinney has yet to find that Midas touch in 2025, but he has had two weeks to prepare and the Clemson Tigers can produce a win that reminds the rest of the ACC that they are not quite done yet.


Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: Back to back blowout losses will have sent the Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) into the Bye Week with a lot of soul-searching to do.

A loss by 21 points to the Alabama Crimson Tide can be put to the back of the mind, but the Badgers opened Big Ten play with a 17 point home loss to the Maryland Terrapins.

The Head Coach, Luke Fickell, has to be feeling some of the heat having put together a 14-15 record so far in his time in Madison, while the next month will see his Wisconsin team take on Ohio State, Oregon and, first, the Michigan Wolverines (3-1).

Two weeks ago, the Wolverines won an important game in Nebraska to move to 1-0 in Big Ten play and they are set as a considerable favourite to win this one in the home Conference opener. You cannot really argue with that considering what has been seen from the visiting team, and especially not with a Michigan Defensive unit that has looked in good shape for much of the season.

Stopping the run is where the Badgers strength lies, but they are about to be given another significant test when up against this Michigan Offensive Line that wants to bully teams up front. They have opened up some big lanes early in this season and Michigan could have more room if the Badgers are trying to find the answers to protect a Secondary that has given up huge yardage.

Bryce Underwood has perhaps not played at a level where he would be expected to exploit those gaps, but he should be given time and there will perhaps be more opportunities for him. He has at least avoided making big mistakes and the field battle is just as important when it comes to the Michigan Wolverines being in a position to win and perhaps cover this line set.

Through the first four games, Wisconsin have struggled to run the ball and now they are going up against a ferocious Wolverines Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run really well. Keeping the Badgers behind the chains will be seen as a big win and especially with the erratic Quarter Back play that Wisconsin have been getting all season, regardless of who has begun behind Center.

Wisconsin's Offensive Line have not only struggled in run blocking, but have not been able to keep the Quarter Back upright and this Wolverines pass rush could create havoc in the backfield. Forcing the ball to leave the hands quicker than hoped and from third and long spots can lead to big mistakes with the pass rush closing around the Quarter Back and Michigan's Secondary have been able to force turnovers.

That could be key to moving into a position to cover even against this big number and Michigan fans will also not have forgotten the humiliating 38 point home loss to the Badgers in November 2020.

This time it is the Wolverines who can put up some big points and they can take advantage of a Wisconsin team that are 1-6 against the spread when playing a team with rest having also lost their last game.


Texas Longhorns @ Florida Gators Pick: SEC Conference play has begun for all but one school in 2025, but that changes in Week 6 when the Texas Longhorns (3-1) return from a Bye Week to head to Gainesville. The one loss on the resume to the Ohio State Buckeyes is unlikely to be one that forces the Committee to overlook the Longhorns at the end of the season, but Texas fans do know that the team have to improve out of the Bye Week to come through the gauntlet of the SEC schedule.

Revenge will be on the mind of the Florida Gators (1-3) having been blown out by the Longhorns in 2024, but the bigger ambition has to be snapping the three game losing run.

The road losses to the LSU Tigers and Miami Hurricanes have underlined the Offensive issues that the Florida Gators have had all season, while the defeat to the South Florida Bulls is likely going to mean changes at the end of the 2025 campaign.

Simply put, it is difficult to work out how the Gators can have much more success in this one against the Texas Defensive unit that have been pretty well balanced.

As the competition has ramped up, the Gators Offensive Line have simply not been able to find a way to open up the running lanes and they are not expected to get much change out of this Longhorns Defensive Line. A two week preparation may see them look for other ways to get the ground game going, but this is a Longhorns team that will pride themselves on making teams try and beat them from behind the chains and they can certainly do that here.

All of the pressure may be on DJ Lagway, who has not really gotten on track at the Quarter Back position early in 2025.

He is likely to be faced with significant pass rush pressure, while also trying to throw with consistency against this Texas Secondary, and it could be another long day for a Quarter Back who has 61 passing yards in the big loss to the Miami Hurricanes. DJ Lagway did have almost 300 passing yards against the LSU Tigers, but that was a day in which he threw 5 Interceptions and the Gators may be stuck in the mud in The Swamp when trying to put consistent Offensive plays on the board.

If it wasn't for the Florida Gators Defensive unit, games might have seriously got out of hand for the struggling team.

However, it can become a big ask for a team to spend a lot of time on the field and maintain high levels and in the three game losing run, there has been some opportunity for teams to run the ball against the Gators Defensive Line. This is something the Longhorns will look to do and make sure their own Quarter Back is in the best position to succeed.

Arch Manning has not really played to the level that some may have expected, but he is still learning and there are signs he is improving.

He should be faced with limited pass rush pressure and that should give Arch Manning the time to make plays from third and manageable spots on the field and that should keep the Longhorns in decent shape to win on the road.

There are reasons that the Gators should be respected- they have been very good at home when playing with rest (5-0 against the spread), and the Gators are also 6-3 against the spread as the home underdog with Head Coach Billy Napier at the helm.

Florida have revenge on the mind after being humiliated by the Longhorns eleven months ago, and the Texas Longhorns have a poor record when favoured by less than 17 points in the SEC.

These have to give pause for thought, but there is a talent differential on the Offensive side of the ball and Texas may create a turnover or two that allows them to win this one by around 10 points on the road.


Michigan State Spartans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Two Big Ten teams with the same record are hoping to bounce back from Conference losses.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) will be hosting the Michigan State Spartans (3-1) and both have fallen to 0-1 in the loaded Big Ten, which means the losing team can already accept that they are not going to be invited into the Playoff.

Both have a decent win on the board against a Power 4 opponent, while the Cornhuskers at least offered some resistance to the Michigan Wolverines in Week 4.

The same cannot really be said for the Michigan State Spartans who were blown out by the USC Trojans on the same weekend and so it does feel there are more questions for the road team to answer.

Michigan State have to lean on the run against this Cornhuskers Defensive Line and try and keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field. Doing that will control the tempo of the game, but also take away some of the pressure that is perhaps being felt by Quarter Back Aidan Chiles.

In the main, the Quarter Back has handled that really well, although this is another tough challenge against a Nebraska Secondary that have handled the pass exceptionally.

Out of the two teams, Nebraska should have the greater balance when they have the ball and that could make the difference in this important game for two schools still searching for a way to get back amongst the elite of the Conference and the nation.

The Offensive Line should be able to open up enough holes to ensure the Cornhuskers are in third and manageable spots, while Quarter Back Dylan Raiola is producing at a high level.

He will be encouraged by the spaces that the Spartans Secondary have shown all season and it should mean the home team are able to move the chains with some efficiency. Dylan Raiola has 11 Touchdown passes with just a single Interception so far this season and he should be able to put the Cornhuskers in a position to win the game.

Covering will not be easy if the Spartans establish the run, but Michigan State were well beaten when travelling to USC and this Nebraska team could score every time they have the ball.

One or two stalled drives could put Michigan State under pressure and throwing against this Nebraska Secondary has proven to be tough enough to imagine the home team will do enough to win and cover.

MY PICKS: BYU Cougars - 19.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Sunday, 3 October 2021

NFL Week 4 Picks 2021 (September 30-October 4)

The Week 4 of the NFL is not a pivotal time of the season as far as the Super Bowl Winner will go, but it is a time teams can blow chances to earn post-season spots.

That may sound dramatic, but history has shown falling into 1-3 and 0-4 holes have been almost impossible to overcome. We do have an expanded PlayOff this season, but I still think it is difficult to overturn those starts, so it is a big week for some big name teams.

I should have a much fuller thread in Week 5 of the NFL season which will begin next Thursday.


Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Playing on a short week is never ideal for any team in the NFL, but back to back wins will have given the Dallas Cowboys (2-1) plenty of confidence. The spot is a little concerning with this Week 4 game being played between two Divisional games, but the Cowboys have momentum and they are not expected to overlook an opponent that is unbeaten.

The Carolina Panthers (3-0) have been one of the more surprising teams to open the season, but they have taken advantage of a very soft schedule and this is a big step up for them. To make matters worse, the Panthers are going to be without some key players on both sides of the ball and that leaves them vulnerable, even though they have had additional time to prepare for this game having beaten the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.

Christian McCaffrey is the big loss for the unbeaten Panthers and that may mean they are going to have to lean on Sam Darnold even more. The young Quarter Back has not played badly at all for his new team and he is going up against another Defensive unit that is perhaps not up to the standard of the top units in the NFL.

Running the ball may be an issue for the Carolina Offensive Line as they have struggled to get McCaffrey going and now will have to do something for a back up Running Back. There has been one or two holes up front for the Dallas Cowboys so the Panthers may have some success, but the feeling is that this could potentially develop into a shoot out and that means needing to lean on the pass more than usual.

Sam Darnold has produced some very positive performances for the team, but Dallas Defensive Co-Ordinator may be a little more aware of what the Panthers want to do than most. His Secondary have given up some big plays, but Dallas are also a ball-hawking team that will create turnovers, even with some issues they have had putting pressure on the passer.

Giving up extra possessions to Dak Prescott and the Dallas Offensive unit is not going to be ideal for the Carolina Panthers even though the Defensive unit have played above expectations so far this season. Beating Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston and Davis Mills is not exactly a list of a 'who's who' of the NFL Quarter Backs and Dak Prescott has looked like he has never been away despite a serious injury early in the 2020 season.

With an Offensive Line which is looking to pave the way for big gains on the ground and with a Quarter Back making the right decisions and the big plays, I do think Dallas can move the chains against this tough Carolina Defensive unit. The trenches are going to be key, but Tony Pollard is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and I do think the Dallas Receivers can pick up from where they left off in the dominant win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.

As I have said, the spot is not exactly ideal between two Divisional games, but I do think the Cowboys will be focused and they should have too much for the improved Carolina Panthers team. I have to respect the fact that the Panthers have covered in their last eight road games, but they are without their top Offensive player and this may be the most pressurised spot for Sam Darnold so far early in his Panthers career.

The bigger plays should come from the Dak Prescott arm and I think he will lead the Cowboys to a third straight win and a fourth cover of the season.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Friday, 1 October 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 7 Picks 2021 (October 2-3)

The next international break is set to begin from Sunday evening through to Saturday 16th October and so it is a big weekend for managers who will want to ease any itchy fingers any owners or boards have over the 'sack' button.

To be fair the majority of the Premier League are likely to be sitting in comfortable seats at the moment, but the two week gap between games is a good chance for any reevaluations to take place. The most concerned may be Daniel Farke at Norwich City, but results can quickly change a mood around the club.

It is how I felt after my worst Fantasy Football GameWeek of the season, but I will discuss that below with two free transfers to be used this week (definitely need to use one or lose one).


Manchester United v Everton Pick: There was a real buzz at Old Trafford at the end of the Champions League win over Villarreal, but the cold light of day shed a different stance on the fixture.

Even the most positive of Manchester United fans would have to accept that they were very fortunate to beat Villarreal with the visitors creating multiple strong opportunities. They could have been out of sight by half time and Manchester United will need to improve massively on that performance with some huge games to come between the October and November international break.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can ill-afford to look too far ahead and has to make sure his team bounce back from the Premier League setback last Saturday. In the same time slot, Manchester United were beaten 0-1 by Aston Villa at Old Trafford and they will need to be better organised and more creative if they are going to earn the three points in this one.

They are facing an Everton team who have earned the same number of points as Manchester United in the Premier League so far this season, but Rafael Benitez' men have not faced too many of the big clubs in the Division. That doesn't take anything away from the 13 points produced, but Everton were beaten 3-0 at Aston Villa two weeks ago and they are potentially going to be without a number of key performers.

Jordan Pickford, Seamus Coleman, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin would all likely be involved in the first eleven, but all could be missing this weekend. As organised as Rafael Benitez will make the visitors, Everton are a team that have been learning what the new manager demands of them and that has seen them concede too many away goals.

Everton do have a good record at Old Trafford in recent years which has to be respected and Manchester United can struggle to break down teams that sit in. However, the ground should be feeling really positive after the win on Wednesday and the fans can inspire the squad to a big performance, one that can give Manchester United something to build upon later this month when bigger tests are to come.

I do think Everton could play their part, but Manchester United should be able to score the goals to secure the three points and end this week with momentum behind them.


Burnley v Norwich City Pick: There are still five teams in the Premier League who are waiting for their first win of the season, but two of those are facing one another on Saturday.

Both Burnley and Norwich City will have likely targeted a fixture like this one for important points in their bid to avoid the drop, but it is the former who have looked stronger this season.

Burnley may not have the points on the board they would have liked, but they have led in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games. Poor finishing and/or game management have let them down at times, but Burnley will feel the opening game is going to be vital in their bid to earn the victory on Saturday.

They have created chances and Burnley were unfortunate to lose to Arsenal in their last League fixture here. A similar level of performance would certainly have Sean Dyche and his players believing they can beat Norwich City, a team who have struggled at this level both in their relegation season in 2019/20 and in the early part of this campaign.

Norwich City have not played too badly at home, but have not been able to negotiate a tough fixture list. However, they have not been so strong away from home and that is where it looks like they could be vulnerable and a poor record at Turf Moor does not really inspire a lot of confidence.

Some believe Norwich City may end up with a new lowest point tally in the top flight since the Premier League was formed in 1992 and there hasn't been much encouragement for them. They have created some chances, but Norwich City have looked seriously vulnerable at the back and Burnley have shown enough going forward to believe they can take advantage of that.

The first goal is likely to be crucial and Burnley have managed to score the opener in 4 of their 6 Premier League games this season. It may just set them on their way to the three points and I think Burnley look likely to earn those this weekend.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: In recent seasons Southampton have matched up pretty well with Chelsea and it has seen them pick up plenty of positive results against this opponent. They may be encouraged by the fact that Chelsea have lost back to back fixtures, although Ralph Hasenhuttl has to also expect there will be a reaction from the hosts.

The early season results had been decent as far as Chelsea were concerned, but there has been this feeling that they have not been playing as well as they would have liked. Thomas Tuchel will certainly not be happy with some of the attacking displays Chelsea have produced and he will be hoping that Mason Mount can return to offer a creative edge.

No one will dispute the talent that Chelsea have and you have to believe they will begin to get things right, but they look plenty short considering the form of the last week.

Southampton have only lost 2 of their last 7 games at Stamford Bridge and they have already secured draws with the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City this season. Two weeks ago they showed plenty of resiliency to earn a point at the Etihad Stadium, but Southampton have given up some big chances in those draws and that should be encouragement for Chelsea.

It might be a tighter match than expected and Southampton are likely to pose problems from set pieces. However, the feeling is that they are going to want to defend deep and try and catch Chelsea on the counter-attack and it may mean The Saints struggle to create enough to win this game.

Chelsea are not likely to win without some drama on the day, but I do think they will do just enough to do that. They have not played well in their last two games, but The Blues should have enough defensive strength to set their team up for a victory, although it may be a tense atmosphere in West London right through to 5pm on Saturday afternoon.

Romelu Lukaku has had a couple of quiet games, but the big Belgian striker could make the difference for Chelsea. Another home clean sheet could be earned too as Chelsea secure three points that may see them top the Premier League table over the next two weeks.


Leeds United v Wolves Pick: The fans still very much believe that Marcelo Bielsa is going to turn things around for Leeds United who have had a hard time with injury early this season.

They are going to be without a couple of key players on Saturday, but defensive reinforcements could be arriving at the right time with Leeds United looking to secure a first League win of the season. Patrick Bamford is a miss, but I do think the style used by Leeds United means they can make up for that as long as they are responsible defensively.

Having a loud Elland Road behind them should be a boost for Leeds United who will have been sickened by the late goal conceded to West Ham United here last weekend. The visitors probably did enough to deserve the points, but Leeds United have played pretty well against Liverpool and The Hammers and they will feel this is a big step down from the level of those two clubs.

No disrespect will be intended for Watford, but this is a team who have struggled away from home and were very fortunate to earn a 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United last time out. They did crush Norwich City a couple of weeks ago, but Leeds United are a much stronger team than that and Watford have some huge defensive concerns that need to be resolved if they are going to consolidate back at this level.

Watford do have a very good recent record at Elland Road, but the last meeting was back in 2015 and Leeds United will feel this current squad is more than capable of turning the tide on that run. The first goal could be very important for either team, but I think Leeds United are creating enough to believe they can become the latest to expose the Watford back line and the home team can secure a vital victory that can ease any tension developing in the fan base.


Wolves v Newcastle United Pick: This is not as easy a game as the layers may think and that is largely down to the fact that Wolves continue to be a very difficult team to read.

They won last weekend at Southampton in a game where continued poor decisions in the final third may have been costly for what has been a wasteful team this season. Defensively Wolves looked sound, but Bruno Lage likes his teams to get forward and score goals and he is still trying to fit in the right players to his forward line to make sure they are more clinical in front of goal.

This certainly looks like a fixture in which Wolves will find spaces to exploit as Newcastle United continue to give opponents plenty of chances. It cost them two points in the 1-1 draw with Watford last week despite an improved performance, but I do think Newcastle United can be dangerous with the pace they have in the final third.

Last time out, Newcastle United created plenty of chances of their own against Watford, but Steve Bruce has not really seen his team produce consistently. They have matched up pretty well with Wolves if 5 straight 1-1 draws is anything to read into, but this is a more forward thinking Wolves and I think that could be important for them.

Failing to score a home League goal has to be a concern in backing Wolves, but I do think this is an opponent that will present chances to them. Add in the creativity that Wolves have shown and I do think they will have every chance to win this game and, like London buses, a home goal may be something the fans have waited so long for that two come at once.


Brighton v Arsenal Pick: The late Saturday afternoon kick off sees Brighton looking to prove they could potentially be a club challenging for European places at the end of this season.

A late Neal Maupay goal salvaged a point against Crystal Palace last Monday and Brighton are a team playing with confidence. Before that draw, Brighton had won 3 in a row in all competitions and they have looked pretty good at both ends of the field.

However, they are not nearly as dominant as they were on the expected goals stat as they were for much of last season and Brighton may see results just dip over the coming weeks and months. Playing at home will be a boost for a Brighton team that have lost 1 of their last 9 games here in all competitions, but Graham Potter's men are going up against a much improved Arsenal team.

Results have picked up over the last month and that has eased the pressure on Mikel Arteta with his Arsenal team winning 4 in a row in all competitions. The first half blitz of Tottenham Hotspur would have been massively enjoyed by the Arsenal fans, but they had been struggling to convert chances into goals prior to that victory.

It may be another tough outing for them in this game, but they showed resiliency in the 0-1 win at Burnley. Arsenal were perhaps a touch fortunate that day and they will need to be a lot better against a Brighton team that will play their football and look to take the game to their visitors.

Last season both games were tight and competitive and I think this one will be no different. 4 of the last 6 between Brighton and Arsenal have ended with fewer than three goals shared out and there is every chance this is going to be another fixture that trends in that direction.

The first goal could be key in deciding the winner, but I am not anticipating a lot of goals between these clubs on their current form. Both are decent going forward, but they are looking to be defensively responsible as much as possible and it could see the managers looking to make life difficult for the other.

One of these teams failing to score would not be a massive surprise and a relatively low-scoring fixture could develop.


Crystal Palace v Leicester City Pick: They may have created the chances to earn a result in Poland on Thursday night, but Leicester City were beaten 1-0 at Legia Warsaw and they have considerable work to do if they are to progress in the Europa League.

It underlines the poor start made to the 2021/22 season as Leicester City have struggled for consistency. They are conceding too many goals and Leicester City have not been as creative in the final third as they have been over the last couple of years under Brendan Rodgers and there has to be some concern about the opening two months of the season.

A big result on Sunday will at least give Leicester City some confidence before they return in two weeks time to take on Manchester United. They were able to rest some key players, but travelling back from Poland is not ideal for a team that has won 1 of their last 6 games in all competitions.

To compound the issue, Leicester City will be taking on a Crystal Palace team who have looked pretty good over the last month and who will have been resting and preparing for this fixture. Patrick Vieira's tactics have been much more eye-pleasing for the neutrals to enjoy and the Crystal Palace players have responded with some strong performances.

It can be argued that Crystal Palace have deserved more than they have gotten from those fixtures, but Vieira has to be encouraged by what he has seen. His team have created chances in their last couple of home games and they can expose what has been a soft underbelly at Leicester City who have yet to build a partnership at the back with injuries hurting them.

Crystal Palace have only lost 1 of their last 5 at home against Leicester City and I do think they are a surprising home underdog this weekend. On current form, Crystal Palace have every chance of earning the upset outright, but I certainly think they can avoid defeat as they look to keep the points ticking over against an opponent lacking confidence and travelling back from Europe.


Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa Pick: An easy home European game on Thursday evening will have been a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to erase the performance at Arsenal from their minds, but the fans won't have easily forgotten.

It felt like Tottenham Hotspur had waved the white flag very early in the North London derby and they have lost all 3 Premier League games played since the September international break. Even more embarrassing is the fact that Nuno Espirito Santo is known for being defensively well-organised, but Spurs conceded three goals in each defeat to Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Arsenal.

There is a sense of tension around this ground and inside the Stadium and that means there is pressure on the manager to make sure Tottenham Hotspur start much better in this one. They did not play badly in the first half of the 0-3 home defeat to Chelsea, but Tottenham Hotspur are a team lacking confidence and there is a sense of vulnerability when teams get forward and take their chances to attack them.

Dean Smith is likely going to be setting up his Aston Villa team to test this Tottenham Hotspur backline if their performances at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford are anything to go by. They were well beaten at Chelsea in the Premier League, but Aston Villa could have gotten so much more out of that game with better finishing when the game was in the balance.

Last week it looked like poor finishing was going to be costly for Aston Villa again, but a late goal earned them three points at Manchester United. It was another forward thinking system that Dean Smith had Aston Villa playing and I do think they have every chance of matching the win they earned here in May.

This won't be easy if Tottenham Hotspur make a fast start and try and get on top of Aston Villa, but I do think the visitors are being under-rated. They were the better team at Stamford Bridge and the same could be said at Old Trafford, while this is a step down from that level despite the likes of Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane being in the home dressing room.

Beating Mura is a good, confidence boosting result, but Tottenham Hotspur are a little vulnerable. If Aston Villa can score first, I think the home fans could add to the pressure on the Spurs players and it may lead to another big away result for Dean Smith's progressive team.


West Ham United v Brentford Pick: You have to give a lot of credit to both David Moyes and Thomas Frank for not only the results that their respective sides have earned, but the kind of performances that West Ham United and Brentford have put together.

Both of these London clubs may feel there is a big season ahead of them to build on the foundation laid and I do think the fans will have a good game to look forward to.

West Ham United are still trying to find the balance between Europa League and Premier League commitments and I do wonder how they will handle the short turnaround between fixtures. There hasn't been much to worry about in the main, but it could be argued that West Ham United's worst performance of the season came against Manchester United days after Match Day 1 of the Europa League Group Stage.

They were comfortable winners over Rapid Vienna at home on Thursday, whereas the previous Premier League match came after an away game in Croatia, but it is something to consider.

The Hammers are creating chances and they have Michail Antonio in the form of his career leading the line. I certainly think they can challenge a well organised Brentford team who have struggled for goals despite the three they managed against Liverpool.

Brentford have been a breath of fresh air in the top flight and I do think this is a club that is progressing. The development under Thomas Frank makes them a team to be respected and I do think every club in the top flight will have a tough test when visiting the Brentford Community Stadium.

However, I do think home advantage could be key for West Ham United here and that may give them enough of an edge to earn the three points. Nothing will come easy against Brentford this season, but David Moyes' team have been pretty good at the back in recent games and, with Michail Antonio, there is always the quality in the final third which may end up making the difference for the East London club.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The top two in the Premier League table going into this weekend will be meeting one another on Sunday afternoon and it is a big chance for Liverpool and Manchester City to lay down a marker for their title ambitions.

Both teams have made a strong start to the season, but there have been a couple of setbacks too. I do think that raises some questions as to the direction this fixture will take, but for the large part you would expect Liverpool and Manchester City to try and impose their game on the other.

They are heading into this weekend off the back of different Champions League away experiences during the week, but Manchester City may feel hard done by in losing at Paris Saint-Germain. The 0-1 win at Stamford Bridge last weekend shows what kind of level Manchester City are still capable of performing at and I think they are going to cause problems for Liverpool.

The key for Manchester City will be getting through what is likely to be an early Liverpool storm, but they have largely been defending pretty well. It took a couple of special goals to break them down in the French capital, while Manchester City were able to keep Chelsea at arm's distance for much of the fixture last weekend.

Liverpool will believe they can do better than Chelsea, while their own defensive performances have been decent enough. Virgil Van Dijk's return has been a huge boost for the home team and I think this is a fixture which is likely to go against the trend of recent Liverpool and Manchester City clashes at Anfield.

4 of the last 5 between these clubs at this ground have ended with at least three goals shared out, but I don't think either manager will want to give too much away here. Manchester City are still lacking goals, especially away from home, while Liverpool will find it tough to break down their visitor's defences.

A tight game is expected between two confident clubs and the feeling is that we will see fewer than three goals on the day with every chance of the points being shared.

MY PICKS: Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals
Burnley
Chelsea Win to Nil
Leeds United & Over 1.5 Goals
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals
Brighton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa + 0.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United
Liverpool-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 7
That was a hard week to get through.

My decision to essentially pick Mason Greenwood over Diogo Jota looked a poor one, while Cristiano Ronaldo was not able to extend his run of scoring goals on his return to Manchester United and ended any hopes of my Captain salvaging the week.

Injuries to Luke Shaw and Trent Alexander-Arnold have put their participation in doubt for GameWeek 7, but those two players combined for a monster 1 point last time out.

And all in all, a sub-40 point score is an absolute disgrace, although overall I have pushed over the 400 point mark which is the only positive I can lean on after the horrible scenes.

I did manage to hold a Free Transfer through the week and have two for GameWeek 7, although the feeling is that I am going to hold off making both this week.

Initially the plan had been to bring in Romelu Lukaku and another Chelsea player ahead of what looks to be a very promising run of games for that team, but the disappointing last week means I am going to take a risk and have to deal with any fallout of not picking up the Belgian number nine.

Michail Antonio is too important to drop at the moment, while those injuries to key defenders means I am likely going to spend one transfer in that position of my team. I am actually fairly happy with the options I have in the squad, and might even have rolled through this week if that was going to give me another Free Transfer to hold.

There is no doubting the kind of asset Trent Alexander-Arnold can be in this game, but the Liverpool run over the next several weeks may not result in a lot of clean sheets. His attacking starts are obviously highly encouraging, but the groin injury has to be a concern and I do think I can drop him now and bring him back in a month/six weeks when other areas of my team can be downgraded.

An easy choice here looks to be doubling down on the Chelsea defence before their run of games that could easily see the team put a number of clean sheets on the board. It saves some considerable cash with the Alexander-Arnold move to someone like Antonio Rudiger, who looks the most set of the Chelsea back line with Cesar Azpilicueta, and the risk of two defenders from the same team could pay off.


As mentioned before, I had also planned to move Mason Greenwood from my team this week- I like the young Manchester United player and I think he is going to be a star for the club for years to come, but the last couple of weeks have been difficult for the 20 year old. With Jesse Lingard producing off the bench and with Marcus Rashford expected to return in two weeks time (possibly on the bench this weekend) and I do think Mason Greenwood is going to become a rotation casualty.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will want to look after Greenwood and it could be a time to take him out of the starting eleven with senior players in form and returning from injury. With the games coming up, I do think the decision to move Mason Greenwood and pick up Raphinha from Leeds United looks too much to ignore.

Raphinha is someone who looked underpriced in the game, but his form remains exceptionally high, while the attacker has four very good looking fixtures coming up from which he could truly benefit. He could pay immediate dividends in a home game with Watford and Raphinha should be well rested for what is to come next.


Using both Free Transfers without taking a hit will put some pressure on my team if the international break plays havoc as it can do, but I do like the shape it gives my squad and the huge amount of options I have in GameWeek 8 and further ahead into the fixtures coming up.

I don't want to be in a position where I have to take too many hits, but that's an option for GameWeek 8 which I will discuss in the next thread in two weeks time (if needed).

Hopefully I can have a much better week all around this time after the horrible showing in GameWeek 6.

Saturday, 3 October 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 3-4)

The final weekend before a two week international break kicks off on Saturday morning with Chelsea looking for a victory and all ten Premier League games are going to have live television coverage in the United Kingdom through to Sunday evening.

I will have a few thoughts about the GW4 in the Fantasy Football game below, but before that you can read my thoughts about those Premier League games coming up.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: The first game in the Premier League this weekend comes from Stamford Bridge and Frank Lampard will be looking to just go into the international break with a little bit of positive momentum.

Going out of the League Cup at Tottenham Hotspur on Penalties and losing to Liverpool before falling 3-0 down at West Brom in the Premier League is not where Chelsea fans would have expected to see their team after a month of football considering the investment made into the side.

Individual errors have been a real problem for Chelsea, much as it was last season too, but they have been creating chances. Injuries are not helping them, but Lampard will be demanding one more big effort before reinforcements will return after the internationals.

They will have to be careful against a Crystal Palace team who have started the season better than expected. This is a team with pace and a real ability to get into positive positions on the counter attack as they showed in their win at Manchester United.

Controlling that counter attack won't be easy for Chelsea unless they are better collectively when it comes to defending, but they have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace in recent times. The Blues have beaten them 3 times in a row at Stamford Bridge and the last two wins have come by at least two goal margins.

With the squad still strong enough, I think Chelsea will be able to get the better of Crystal Palace again. There are goals in this Chelsea team and I expect Frank Lampard to be aware of the counter attacking ability of the visitors as he was last season.

I have to respect the performance at Old Trafford, but Chelsea should be able to cope a little better than Manchester United did that day. That should lead to a good win for Chelsea ahead of a very busy October and early November coming up.


Everton v Brighton Pick: You have to give Carlo Ancelotti some credit for the way Everton have opened up this season and the fans have to believe that their team are going to be able to maintain their 100% start to the season in this one.

They have a very good home record against Brighton in recent seasons and Everton have scored at least three goals in each of their home games over the last month. Granted two of those fixtures came in the League Cup and West Brom were reduced to ten men in the Premier League game, but Everton are creating chances and look to be playing with real confidence.

In players like Dominic Calvert-Lewin they have someone who doesn't look like missing at the moment and should have an extra bounce in the step after being called up by England for the first time.

Everton are also facing a Brighton team who have given up some big chances at the back, although there has to be a respect for the visitors who are unbeaten in 8 away Premier League games.

Graham Potter's men may have lost last weekend, but they deserved so much more against Manchester United and it could easily be argued that they are unfortunate not to have more points on the board. His style means Brighton will get forward and look to cause problems for Everton and I think the home team have shown a little vulnerability especially with Jordan Pickford in goal.

I expect the visitors to be in this game, but at the moment it is hard to oppose Everton. They look to be in form and if Richarlison is passed fit I think they will edge to the win in a game that does feature goals.

It did end 1-0 to Everton in the corresponding fixture last season, but there were a host of chances for both teams in that one. Both look to be showing a little more composure in front of goal at this moment and I will look for Everton to win a game featuring at least two goals.


Leeds United v Manchester City Pick: Marcelo Bielsa and Pep Guardiola famously spent several hours discussing philosophies during a time that the latter was just starting his Coaching career.

Ever since Guardiola has had an immense respect for his counterpart and described Bielsa as the best coach in the world.

Respect is one thing, but he won't have an inferior complex and Manchester City are going into Elland Road as a big favourite despite the heavy home loss to Leicester City. They bounced back from that defeat to beat Burnley in the League Cup during the week, and Manchester City have won 3 away Premier League games in a row while scoring plenty of goals in that time.

Losing the likes of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus is a blow to the way Manchester City want to play, but they have shown they can cope with the performance at Burnley. Manchester City also should not be concerned about a team sitting in as they were when they played Leicester City last weekend and the spaces that Leeds United do leave behind should be exploited.

In saying that, Leeds United will also get forward in numbers and challenge a Manchester City defence that looked shot in their defeat last Sunday. Leeds United have scored plenty of goals and in their last two League games they have been creating chances, although the absence of Jack Harrison and Pablo Hernandez does hurt them.

I don't believe Bielsa will allow his team to sit and be hard to beat but instead will want to take the game to Manchester City. The evidence is the way they approached the FA Cup game against Arsenal last season and the opening League defeat at Liverpool and that should be music to the ears of the Manchester City players who are superior to their Leeds United peers.

It would be a real surprise if the home team do not cause problems of their own, but Manchester City should have spaces to exploit in this one and I think they win a high-scoring fixture with a little room to spare.


Newcastle United v Burnley Pick: If it wasn't for the staggered kick off times being used by the Premier League while the fans are not able to attend games, I don't think any of the broadcasters would have been rushing out to pick this one for television coverage.

That is no disrespect to Newcastle United or Burnley, but injuries are hurting both clubs and I think the managers would happily take the international break right now. It would give them time to bring back key names for the squad and both Steve Bruce and Sean Dyche will also be hoping their clubs are able to bring in some more bodies before the transfer deadline hits on Monday.

For now the concentration will be on trying to add to the points tally before the break in play.

Neither Burnley nor Newcastle United have been creating a lot of chances, but both managers will also set their team up to be difficult to beat and I do think goals will be in short supply. There was just a single strike across the two Premier League games between them last season and 4 of the last 6 has seen one of the clubs fail to hit the net.

With chances coming at a premium, I do think there will be a real possibility of one of the teams failing to score in this one. The new handball rule could change things very quickly, while set pieces are always a threat for both Burnley and Newcastle United, but the two defences have been on top so far this season.

Limited opportunities are being put together when these teams move into the final third and I think this may not be the most entertaining Saturday night game.


Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams will be very pleased with their opening performances even if it is Leicester City who have secured the more consistent results.

Better finishing and a bit more luck might have given West Ham United far more than the 3 points they have earned so far, but the 4-0 win over Wolves shows what this squad is capable of. The heavy loss at Everton in the League Cup also shows the defensive vulnerabilities that exist in the West Ham United squad and I do think that is where Leicester City have to try and get forward and put pressure on their visitors.

You don't always know what to expect from Leicester City when they are being asked to break down opponents, but the 4-2 win over Burnley in the first home League game will give them belief. Confidence has to be at a very high level after the win over Manchester City last weekend anyway and Leicester City did beat West Ham United twice last season.

The 4-1 win at the King Power Stadium before the suspension of League Football around Europe in March shows what Leicester City can do when they put their football together. Injuries are a slight concern with some key names likely to be absent on Sunday, but Leicester City should still have enough quality to get the job done and potentially go into the international break leading the Division.

I do think West Ham United will cause some problems with the levels they have been producing in the first month. They created a lot of chances in the last two games against Arsenal and Wolves so The Hammers won't be intimidated by this fixture, but this is a confident Leicester City team and I think they will edge a high-scoring game.


Southampton v West Brom Pick: There were a lot of people tipping up Southampton as being capable of a strong season who would have been surprised by their opening two League defeats.

The win over Burnley last weekend was a big one for The Saints and they will be looking at matches like this one as being very important to their survival bid. Southampton were poor at home last season, but they did create chances and ended the season with 2 wins from 3 Premier League games.

Better finishing would have put Southampton in a strong position to perhaps beat Tottenham Hotspur, but they collapsed when the chances came and went in the 2-5 defeat. However there was enough positive vibes from the players to believe they can do better and I think they are going to enjoy playing West Brom if the latter keep defending as they have done.

Slaven Bilic was furious that Chelsea's equaliser was allowed to stand last week, but he should be pretty worried about the defending. Despite a 3-0 lead, it always felt West Brom were vulnerable to Chelsea and in the first three games The Baggies have given up some huge opportunities.

The fact is that they haven't gotten away with it either having conceded at least three times in each Premier League game played. They also conceded twice in the eventual Penalties defeat to Brentford in the League Cup and I do think Southampton are going to cause plenty of problems for them.

West Brom should play their part with their speedy counter attacks likely to find spaces, but I don't think Southampton will let them off the hook when they get forward. With Danny Ings the home team have goals in the squad and I think they win this one in another potentially high-scoring Premier League fixture.


Arsenal v Sheffield United Pick: There has been a trend of seeing some high scoring games in the Premier League since the resumption of play in September and I think that is partly down to the lack of fitness some clubs have.

A short turnaround between seasons was always going to be difficult to deal with and having four Rounds of the League Cup scheduled to be played within a month has not helped.

The short off-season also means momentum can seep into this campaign from the last even more so than normal. Chris Wilder has to be worried about that now Sheffield United have lost 6 League games in a row and the lack of goals is a real issue for The Blades.

It is not for the lack of chances either with Sheffield United guilty of missing some glaring opportunities in the last two games including a missed penalty. Those lack of goals is certainly one of the reasons they are the underdog in North London this weekend, although Arsenal are still making some defensive mistakes which are allowing teams to create chances.

Both West Ham United and Liverpool did that so Sheffield United should arrive at the Emirates Stadium believing they can get off the mark in the goals for and points column.

However it will be a challenge to keep Arsenal out considering the early levels being produced by Sheffield United. The Gunners should be well rested despite having been scheduled to play on Thursday and they have been creating chances even if not at the rate to suggest they deserve to have 6 points on the board.

Under Mikel Arteta Arsenal definitely seem to be playing with a bit more confidence in front of goal and they remain a clinical team which is unsurprising considering the attacking talents at their disposal.

Arsenal will want to get forward and they do have a team that will have success, but I am expecting Sheffield United to find a bit more fortune in front of goal if nothing else. They can't keep missing big chances and I think this will help this game produce at least three goals on the day.


Wolves v Fulham Pick: Now I know Fulham are not going to lose every Premier League game they play this season, but at the moment it is very difficult to see where they are going to get their points from.

Certainly not enough points to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

Scott Parker wants his team to play football, but the defensive mistakes being made are absolutely embarrassing and putting the manager under pressure. You can't concede three times in every League game played and expect to pick up results, but that is what Fulham have done after losing 0-3 at home to Aston Villa last week.

Defensive signings are likely to be made before the deadline, but those are not arriving just yet and Fulham look vulnerable.

To make matters more difficult, they are facing an angry Wolves team who were humiliated in their 4-0 defeat to West Ham United last Sunday. That is back to back losses for Wolves in the Premier League, but they have not lost 3 League games in a row since November 2018.

They have lost back to back League games four times since those three defeats in a row and Wolves have won 2 and drawn 2 the next time out. Being back at home should help and I do think Wolves have pace and power in the final third which will give them a real edge in this clash.

Wolves are simply going up against a team that offers up two or three really good chances every game they play and in Raul Jimenez they have someone who can gobble up those opportunities. Barring some huge turnaround in their defensive resiliency in the last couple of days, I think Wolves win this fixture.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There have been some petty words back and forth between Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Jose Mourinho in the lead up to this huge fixture in the Premier League.

Those are going to mean nothing when Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet on Sunday and this is a massive game for the two clubs. While Tottenham Hotspur look to have gotten the majority of their business done in the transfer market, Manchester United are under pressure to back their manager and that will only increase tenfold if they were to lose another game at Old Trafford.

It won't be lost on Jose Mourinho that he can put his successor in a heap of trouble by winning here and while he will speak about Spurs alone, I have no doubt it is something he is thinking about privately.

The schedule is not ideal having played Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday and now Sunday again. However Tottenham Hotspur have built up some momentum with their wins in the Cup competitions and the side have played some good attacking football, albeit against teams not quite of the level of Manchester United.

It has not been the best start for Manchester United and their own defensive shortcomings have to be a worry ahead of this Premier League fixture. Brighton should have beaten United, let alone draw, last weekend and Crystal Palace showed how effective the counter attack can be.

Both teams will feel they are better on the front foot in this one and I do think that will be the approach they take. Manchester United have to want to play attacking football at Old Trafford and Tottenham Hotspur will sense a vulnerability in the home team.

With their own defensive issues clear to see in the opening month of the season, I would be surprised if we don't see three or more goals scored for the third time in a row between these clubs at Old Trafford.


Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park where the improved hosts really get to test how far they've come along when they meet the Champions.

Aston Villa have definitely improved defensively since the three month break between March and June and Dean Smith's team have been able to produce a lot more positive results thanks to that. There is some quality going forward, although this is still a huge challenge for them against a club who have won 6 games in a row on this ground in the Premier League.

Last season Aston Villa came awfully close to cracking the code as they led Liverpool into the dying embers of the fixture, but two late goals turned things around for the visitors.

They deserve to win that day, but it was a much closer and more competitive meeting when they played at Anfield in early July. On that day Aston Villa were able to restrict the chances that Liverpool created, although it has to be said there is something of the inevitable about this Liverpool team.

Like many top teams before them, there is a real sense that Liverpool are going to get things right no matter the situation at the moment. Even when they are under pressure they seem to put the right football together to earn the victory, or they have a couple of big defensive moments to swing the momentum towards them.

That does make it very hard to oppose Liverpool as it was to oppose Manchester City two seasons ago.

With the quality Liverpool have going forward you have to favour them to win most games they play, but Aston Villa have shown resiliency and I think they can make this competitive. It is harder for the underdog without the fans in the Stadium, but Aston Villa have beaten Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Sheffield United in that time and pushed Chelsea all the way.

They were giving Manchester United as good as they got before a controversial penalty was awarded against Aston Villa and I do think Dean Smith will have his troops ready to compete.

I would be very surprised if Aston Villa were to capitulate and lose really heavily in this one, although opposing Liverpool is a hard task these days.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals
Southampton & Over 1.5 Goals
Arsenal-Sheffield United Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa + 1.75 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 4
After a pretty solid GameWeek 1, the last two weeks have been disappointing to say the least with both finishing under 50 points for the week.

That is not going to cut it although I think this could be a week in which it may be wise for me to stay steady and have two transfers to use following the international break.

I do think there are a couple of players I need to replace in my squad and I can use a transfer this week to move one of those out, although at this stage I want to make sure I am in a position to make the right choices once the real life transfer deadline is hit.

The kind of names that can't be long for my team are Luke Shaw, Ben Davies, Ayoze Perez, Tomas Soucek, Che Adams and Timo Werner.

Take away the two defenders and the other four have had their opportunities to put a big haul on the board, but missed chances and some poor luck has accounted for that and unsurprisingly some of the value has already been lost.

I still believe Adams and Werner can come good and I am willing to give Perez one more chance knowing the injuries in the Leicester City line up and with a very good looking home game come.

At this point you can't win any major prizes in your Leagues, but with the Wild Card to be used this side of the New Year it may be the best time to play it before GW5.

There have been some frustrating moments in the first three GWs of the season, but I am hoping some of the luck returns to my eleven selected before the two week break to have a real think about how I want to approach my team going forward.