Another European week of Group matches is in the books, but it feels like a lot of things have happened in the Premier League between GameWeek 10 and 11.
A new manager has arrived at Tottenham Hotspur after their Halloween weekend horror show, while Newcastle United are set to lean on Eddie Howe to get them out of trouble having seemingly been turned down by multiple managers before picking the Englishman. It is not ideal for Howe who will have seen how things can sour when not the first choice at Tottenham Hotspur, but he has experience with some of the players in the Newcastle United squad and he will be tasked with getting them closer to the teams above them before the January transfer window opens and reinforcements can be brought in.
This is an important week for managers in the top two Divisions in England and throughout the top European Leagues with the final international break of the calendar year beginning on Monday. Having a two week break between games has proven to be a fruitful time for reevaluations of a managers position and there are a few on the hot seat going into November.
Fortunately mine has cooled down in the dressing room of my Fantasy Football team, but more on that below.
Southampton v Aston Villa Pick: The expectations for these clubs were markedly different going into the 2021/22 season, but the pressure is on Dean Smith to turn things around for Aston Villa.
Instead of pushing up the Premier League table and potentially challenging for European places, Aston Villa have struggled for consistency all season. Jack Grealish has moved on, but the players have not really filled the gap as effectively as Dean Smith would have liked, while injuries and out of form have hurt the key players remaining.
Aston Villa are likely to be without Danny Ings this week, while the likes of Bertrand Traore, Leon Bailey and Emiliano Buendia have not really been performing as the fans would have expected. Ezri Konsa is suspended and I think Aston Villa are looking vulnerable heading to the south coast and especially when you note their level of performance in defeats over the last month.
Now they have to face a Southampton team who are operating far more effectively than many believed they would be. Many tipped them up for relegation, but Southampton are beginning to turn their performances into the kind of results they deserve and they look more than capable of beating Aston Villa at home.
There is a consistency at either end of the field that Aston Villa have been lacking and Southampton look happy in the system that Ralph Hasenhuttl has them playing in. Players are in form and the wins over Leeds United and Watford could have come by much wider margins with a little more composure in front of goal.
Southampton were recently held to a 2-2 home draw by Burnley, but they deserved more out of that game and a similar level of performance will be expected to be too good for Aston Villa.
A home win will put Dean Smith in an uncomfortable position during the November international break, but on current form it is hard to see any other outcome. Southampton would like to add more goals to their football to really begin pulling away from the bottom three, but they should be able to create the chances they need to win this fixture and I think they can be backed to do that on the Asian Handicap.
Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: The Manchester derby is still a very big fixture on the calendar, although these days Manchester United are less likely to use any success in this fixture to take them on to bigger and better things.
Instead it is Manchester City who have been loading up the trophy cabinet, but Manchester United have been the team who have been getting the better of the head to head. They are unbeaten in 4 Premier League games against the noisy neighbours and Manchester United have won 3 of those fixtures, although the majority of recent successes have been in games at the Etihad Stadium.
That is backed up by the fact that Manchester United have won 1 of their last 6 at Old Trafford against Manchester City and there will be some nervousness amongst the fans on Saturday. The last time they saw their team play here it ended in an embarrassing defeat to a major rival, and some fans will be worrying that a similar kind of result could be the outcome of this one.
A late Cristiano Ronaldo goal salvaged a point for Manchester United in the Champions League during the week, but it was another sub-par performance under the current manager. After barely escaping with his job following the defeat to Liverpool, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can ill-afford another really bad loss ahead of the November international break.
He has found a way to earn big results against Pep Guardiola and that has to offer Manchester United some encouragement. However, they cannot keep playing at their current level with the magic moments helping Manchester United out of a hole, while they look pretty poor defensively and are going to be without Raphael Varane and, potentially, Victor Lindelof this week.
Manchester City have produced some big wins away from home in the Premier League and they have been much more solid all around than their rivals. In recent games they have been punished for mistakes being made, but in the main Manchester City continue to be tough to break down and they will control much of the play.
Unlike Liverpool, Manchester City have been a little more inconsistent in converting their chances in the final third as they continue to struggle without a real number nine. The win over Brighton showed Manchester City can still score goals without a recognised striker, but the narrow wins over Leicester City and Chelsea have been founded on strong defensive performances.
It does feel like a game in which the first goal is going to be huge and I do think it will be a close match, mainly because of the way these teams have matched up with each other. The last 5 Manchester derby games have seen one of the teams fail to score and that could be the outcome again.
My feeling is that Manchester City will show the superior defensive system which ends up helping them find a way to earn the victory. I hate to say that, but it is also not much of a surprise to see the visitors at a much shorter price than Liverpool considering the underlying numbers produced.
However, Manchester United have matched up well with Manchester City and any team with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line have to be respected. The injuries at the back and the absence of Paul Pogba does not help the home team much though and I do think Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is going to want to set his team up to be dangerous on the counter attack.
Manchester City should be aware of that and they have looked good enough at the back to make me believe that the team that scores first may be able to do enough to contain the other in the first derby of the season. It would be a major upset if Manchester United were to win on current form, but Tottenham Hotspur managed to do that behind a strong defensive foundation and this could be the sixth derby in a row where one of these teams fails to score.
Brentford v Norwich City Pick: If Norwich City are serious about finding a way to survive in the Premier League the feeling is that they are going to have to make a managerial change. It is a risky decision as Daniel Farke has proven he can manage through the choppy waters of the Championship, but the manager has also shown he has not been able to find the tactics, system or the motivational tools to produce wins at the Premier League level.
The 1-2 defeat to Leeds United means Norwich City have lost 18 of their last 20 Premier League games and you won't find too many people who will believe they can bridge the 8 point gap between themselves and 17th place in the table. Even with 28 fixtures left, Norwich City look doomed to continue their yo-you existence between the top two Divisions.
The fixtures either side of the November international break give Norwich City a chance to pick up some big results, but it is very hard to trust them. They are simply not scoring enough goals and Norwich City are being punished at the back and now have to face a Brentford team that will be keen to bounce back from a poor run.
Brentford have lost 3 Premier League games in a row, but they were unfortunate against Chelsea and Leicester City. That was not the case last weekend when beaten at Burnley, but Brentford will feel they can get back on track against an opponent who are lacking confidence.
In their home games, Brentford have been unfortunate not to have picked up more points. They arguably deserved to beat both Liverpool and Chelsea, while Brentford did enough to pick up a point against Leicester City. The level of performance will certainly give Norwich City plenty of problems to deal with and Brentford created enough chances in the 1-1 home draw with this opponent last season to have deserved to win.
That was behind closed doors, but a full Brentford Community Stadium should push Brentford forward and I think they are going to have enough to see off the struggling Canaries. It will be important to make a positive start, while Brentford have been pretty good defensively in the majority of their home games to believe they can mainly contain what Norwich City are likely to bring.
Scoring enough goals is still a question for Brentford to answer, but I think they will find spaces and chances against Norwich City. The home team should be able to pick up the three points in a game that features at least two goals on the day.
Chelsea v Burnley Pick: The machine keeps rumbling forward at Chelsea under the guidance of Thomas Tuchel and they are expected to produce another three points on a weekend when their main title rivals have difficult looking away games.
The manager made it clear last weekend that he does not celebrate his rivals dropping points, but instead is focused on making sure Chelsea look after themselves. It has worked for a team that have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions in normal time and look on the brink of progressing to another Champions League Last 16.
Chelsea have won 6 of their last 8 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge with the exceptions being defeats to Arsenal and Manchester City. That is something that will bother Tuchel and he will be reminding his players of the importance of making sure they remain focused with his lowest point as manager of the club being a 2-5 home defeat to West Brom.
In the main Chelsea have been very good at both ends of the field and they should have too much for a Burnley team who have conceded at least twice in all 5 away Premier League games played this season.
Burnley are coming in off an important home win over Brentford, perhaps their best performance of the season by some distance, while they have recently drawn 2-2 at Leicester City and Southampton. However, Burnley were beaten 2-0 at both Liverpool and Manchester City this season and their last 2 visits to Stamford Bridge have resulted in comfortable defeats too.
The home team may be without their top two striking options, but that hasn't stopped Chelsea piling up 10 goals in their last 2 Premier League games. They should be able to create chances against this Burnley team who have been giving up some big opportunities and it would be a surprise if Chelsea cannot match the margin of wins that their two main title rivals secured in home wins against this opponent.
You have to say that Burnley have nothing to lose and they can cause problems for teams, but Chelsea look really strong at the moment and I think they will likely win this one by a couple of goals on the day.
Crystal Palace v Wolves Pick: The fan bases of Crystal Palace and Wolves might have been a little frustrated by what they would have considered to be 'negative' football under the previous management regimes.
Both Roy Hodgson and Nuno Espirito Santo did what they had to for Crystal Palace and Wolves respectively and I do think the work would have been appreciated by all associated with those clubs. However, a decision was made to bring in someone with a more expansive system and both Patrick Vieira and Bruno Lage have been well received.
I do think Crystal Palace and Wolves perhaps deserve even more points than they have put on the board, but the positive approach has players and fans smiling. It has led to a number of very good results and both clubs are coming in off victories last weekend which should mean we have two confident teams ready to face one another.
There won't be much between these two teams, but I do think Crystal Palace have been producing the superior underlying numbers in recent games. They may have drawn 3 in a row at home, but Crystal Palace could have easily won all three games with the chances created and given away and I think they may edge to the points against a team they have beaten in 3 of the last 5 at Selhurst Park.
You can't underestimate how well Wolves have played this season, but in recent games they have perhaps struggled with the balance between attack and defence. Better finishing from Leeds United and Everton may have led to a single point rather than the four picked up from those Premier League games, while Wolves have had a slightly better bounce of the ball than some of their recent opponents.
Crystal Palace are hard to trust as they are still looking to put the finishing touches to what has been some very good, eye-pleasing football. They have struggled to put teams away, but I do think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to edge to the three points with a draw meaning the stake is returned.
There may not be much between them- Wolves have been the more clinical of the two in recent games, but I do think Crystal Palace have played very well at home and could easily have secured as many as three wins here instead of the single one.
Before the season some may have tipped this match to be the last one on the highlights show at the end of the night, but both Crystal Palace and Wolves are playing really well and it could be an enjoyably match for the neutrals too. Goals could be on the cards with the narrow lean going with Crystal Palace to secure another vital three points.
Brighton v Newcastle United Pick: Last season the luck seemingly was going against Brighton who were playing fine football, but not being rewarded with enough goals. That has looked like it could potentially be an issue for them again this season, but Brighton have found a few more goals which has led to more points being placed on the board.
The injury to Danny Welbeck is a blow, but Brighton are creating chances and they showed their character in coming from 2-0 down to earn a point at Anfield last Saturday. Building on that before the November international break is the key for Graham Potter as Brighton look to come out of a sequence of games in which they have struggled to turn draws into wins.
They are still hard to beat and Brighton are still creating enough chances to be confident in getting the better of struggling Newcastle United. Brighton did that twice in very impressive fashion last season and they may be facing this opponent at the right time.
Newcastle United are getting healthier, but they are struggling at both ends of the field and it feels like no one really wants to take over as manager despite the potential in the North East. That underlines the difficult position they find themselves with plenty of time before the January transfer window opens and they can bring in reinforcements.
The side have drawn at Watford and Crystal Palace in recent away games and that has to be respected. However, Newcastle United were so fortunate to get away with a point from Selhurst Park and they are still giving up some huge chances in their fixtures as the squad are lacking belief in themselves.
If they do that here, Brighton should be able to take advantage and secure another good win over this opponent. Both fixtures ended 3-0 in favour of Brighton last season and I think The Seagulls are performing at a high enough level to think they can win a game that features at least two goals on the day.
Arsenal v Watford Pick: The last international break until March is going to get underway following the latest round of Premier League fixtures and this is a big chance for Arsenal to enter the two week break with plenty of optimism.
A slow start to the season has been replaced with a strong run of form and Arsenal are now back in amongst the top six and with a chance to close the gap on the teams above them. The Manchester derby and West Ham United host Liverpool means the four teams immediately above Arsenal are facing one another and this is a real chance for Mikel Arteta's men to get a little closer to the top four.
The manager will be urging his team to focus on what they can do for themselves and Arsenal have found a pretty decent balance in home games which makes them dangerous. The goalkeeper has been vital to their recent positive results away from home, but Arsenal have been much more confident at the Emirates Stadium and they are scoring plenty of goals here.
I expect them to do the same against a Watford team who are still working out the patterns that Claudio Ranieri is trying to implement on them. The manager is known for his organisation, but Watford have looked really vulnerable when teams have attacked them and they were fortunate that Southampton's poor finishing kept them in the game last weekend.
Even then, the 0-1 home loss to Southampton is a huge blow for Watford who would have expected to back up the 2-5 win at Everton the week before. They have a very difficult run of fixtures beginning with this game at Arsenal followed by games against Manchester United, Leicester City, Chelsea and Manchester City.
There doesn't feel like a lot of points to be earned in that run so there is some pressure on Watford.
It is hard to see them earning anything here with Arsenal likely to dominate the chances and I do think they can secure another win at home. They have beaten Watford 3 times in a row at home and Arsenal have been creating a lot more chances here than they have on their travels, which is a real concern for Watford and their vulnerable defence.
The counter attack is the best approach Watford will take, but I think they will struggle to contain a home team playing with the swagger that Arsenal have been. If they get in front, I think Arsenal will be able to produce too much in the final third for Watford to deal with and they can win by a couple of goals as they secure another three points.
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is going to be a lot of excitement around Tottenham Hotspur after the appointment of Antonio Conte and the upcoming fixture list gives them a very good opportunity to come together and produce some big results.
This is far from an easy game, but Tottenham Hotspur may benefit from taking on Everton at the right time.
Rafael Benitez has seen his team lose 3 games in a row and Everton have been hurt by injuries to some key players. The international break may give the team a chance to get some of those players back and Everton back on track, but this could be another tough outing in front of the home fans who have been a little tense.
Everton have been disorganised at the back and that has seen West Ham United, Watford and Wolves create a huge amount of chances against them in winning Premier League games.
It is not easy to believe in Tottenham Hotspur considering their inconsistent performances all season, but the squad never seemingly got behind their former manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Antonio Conte is not likely to be happy watching his players produce sub-par performances and I do think his system will suit the squad and make Tottenham Hotspur a more cohesive attacking unit.
Sorting out defensive issues will be a challenge, but the game against Vitesse showed the kind of confidence Antonio Conte may give the squad with his enthusiasm. They attacked well that day and Spurs have a decent record at Everton, which makes me think they are going to find a way to win here.
The home team are not looking sure at the back and that is where the attacking talents of Tottenham Hotspur should be able to shine through. Backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap looks the play as Antonio Conte returns to the Premier League with some style.
Leeds United v Leicester Pick: For the second time this week, Leicester City have created a host of chances at home but they have failed to win the fixture played.
There has to be some real frustration in the squad that they continue to produce inconsistent results and Leicester City will be looking to bounce back this weekend to give themselves a boost to take into the next two weeks. They have played well at times, but Leicester City will have to take their chances when they arrive and they have to show a little more composure in the final third if they are going to start putting a strong set of results together.
This is far from an easy game for Leicester City after Leeds United beat Norwich City last Sunday and they have had a week to prepare for this fixture. Injuries are finally clearing up for Marcelo Bielsa and Leeds United may have an upturn in form going forward, but they have been a little up and down themselves.
Leeds United have been strong at times, but they have also been a team that have given up good chances and they would have lost 3 of 4 home Premier League games if not for a late Penalty in the last game here against Wolves. The pressure of playing at Elland Road has perhaps affected the levels of the squad and I do think Leeds United have shown enough vulnerabilities here to suggest Leicester City can earn the edge.
Leicester City have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 away games in all competitions and they may have enough in the final third to edge to the points in this one too. I do think Leeds United can cause problems, but they have missed Patrick Bamford and I think Leicester City can end their poor run of results with a win here.
West Ham United v Liverpool Pick: One of the big questions about West Ham United this season was how were they going to cope with Europa League Football and Premier League commitments. The results have largely been pretty good overall, but West Ham United earned an important win over Tottenham Hotspur after playing in Europe last time out.
Before that, West Ham United had lost to both Manchester United and Brentford after Europa League games and in both they had conceded very late on as fatigue potentially played a part. A strong team played in Belgium on Thursday in a 2-2 draw and West Ham United will have to dig deep if they are going to earn a result here.
There are still some areas in which West Ham United can improve and they have given up some decent chances to opponents in recent games. However, The Hammers keep producing in the final third and that is going to make them a threat against any team they face.
This week it is Liverpool who will head to the London Stadium and they are looking to bounce back from two points dropped against Brighton last Saturday. A win over Atletico Madrid has moved Liverpool through to the Last 16 of the Champions League as Group Winners to restore confidence, while Liverpool have been really dangerous away from home having scored at least twice in each fixture on their travels this season.
Liverpool have a very strong record at West Ham United too, which adds to their short price, but Jurgen Klopp's men have not looked that secure defensively. Back to back 0-5 wins away from home at Watford and Manchester United will inspire plenty of confidence, but Brentford held Liverpool to a 3-3 draw and this West Ham United team are very good.
Their poor record out of a Europa League tie is a concern, but West Ham United have not been easy to see off and I expect them to push Liverpool more than they have in recent seasons. The midfield injuries are hurting the visitors and West Ham United look like they are being disrespected by the prices here.
MY PICKS: Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United-Manchester City Both Teams to Score- NO
Brentford & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap
Brighton & Over 1.5 Goals
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap
West Ham United + 0.75 Asian Handicap
Fantasy Football GameWeek 11
It has not been a good month and the major mistake made was allowing myself to let the heart speak over the head and refuse to Captain Mohamed Salah at Old Trafford.
That one decision has seen me drop massively in the OR in the Fantasy Premier League game, but GW10 was better even if I did end up leaving 18 points on the bench.
The green arrows were back and I quite like the look of my team going into GW11, although I do have two FTs and am certainly not going to waste them. The attitude is to roll one over so I have two coming out of the international break, but it is a case of 'use it or lose it' in regard to the other.
The focus, as it will be for many, is looking at the incoming Antonio Conte at Tottenham Hotspur and wondering how quickly he can get this team turned around. They are struggling, make no mistake about that, and the 3-2 win over Vitesse shows there is still a vulnerability to them at the back which will take time to work on.
However, Tottenham Hotspur have a really good month of fixtures coming up and I do expect most to have at least two players from their squad and others going in hard and bringing in a third player.
My main focus has to be on the two wing backs, Sergio Reguilon and Emerson Royal, as well as the two big hitters. Heung-Min Son has actually played pretty well this season and been effective, but the hope for Spurs fans and Fantasy players is that Harry Kane may be rejuvenated with a demanding, intense and strong manager like Antonio Conte who seems a good fit here.
Out of the two wing backs, I think Reguilon has less competition and he may be worth the extra outlay to bring him in. Heung-Min Son has been very popular, unsurprisingly, but I am happy to wait to bring him in and give Kai Havertz one more chance. I do think Tottenham Hotspur can win at Everton and Son will play a big part, but others could look to pick Lucas Moura who scored on Thursday and is certainly going to be given the early opportunities on the right side of the attack.
The Brazilian is significantly cheaper than Son and his price could take some big leaps if Lucas Moura gets off to a strong start under this manager, but I think I want to take a watching brief on the attack this week.
Moving in Sergio Reguilon looks much easier with Luke Shaw struggling (and on four bookings meaning one from a suspension). The price has dropped on Shaw over the last couple of weeks, which means losing some value, but I would not be surprised if he is booked this weekend which would mean his missing out on the trip to Watford and the next fixtures at Manchester United being Manchester City, Watford, Chelsea and Arsenal.
None of those are that appealing, so the sideways move at the back looks a good one and especially with the Spurs fixtures easing from now until GameWeek 16. It will also give me time to determine whether I want either Son or Kane, while also allowing the international break to cause the usual amount of havoc it does.
This is going to be slightly late as Chelsea look to be entering a much tougher part of their schedule after the international break than the one they have been working their way through over the last month.
Most have now begun to double up on the Chelsea defenders, especially with Romelu Lukaku out of the equation and the two wing backs have been getting plenty of support.
Both Reece James and Ben Chilwell were rested in the Champions League and I do expect both to start against Burnley, which could be damaging to any of us non-owners out there.
I picked Antonio Rudiger to join Andreas Christensen, who had been my 'cheap' way into the Chelsea backline, but I have noticed something which may just be an early coincidence.
Thomas Tuchel has options at the back and he has begun to give minutes to Trevoh Chalobah too- in his favoured back three, the options are Rudger, Chalobah, Christensen and also Cesar Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva.
Out of those players, I do feel that Antonio Rudiger (£5.9) is the most secure, followed by Silva (£5.5). At one time it would have been Azpilicueta (£6.0) leading the way, but he has not started either of the last two Premier League games and I do wonder if he is dealing with a knock or is he being fazed out.
Both wing backs Ben Chilwell (£6.0) and Reece James (£5.8) look to be cementing those positions in the team and look like rewarding owners when they start, although Tuchel can be streaky with his selections in those positions. However, I think both have played so well that it will be hard to drop them now.
The interesting part for me, and perhaps the worrying part, is how Tuchel has been dealing with his third centre back spot in recent weeks.
Like I say it may just be an early coincidence, but Andreas Christensen (£5.0) has only started one of the last four home Premier League games and that came against Manchester City. It is Trevoh Chalobah (£4.9) who has started the other three Premier League home games against Aston Villa, Southampton and Norwich City.
However, Andreas Christensen has gotten the nod in every away game played by Chelsea this season compared with Trevoh Chalobah who has started in just one and I do think this is something to keep in mind this weekend. After starting in Malmo, it would perhaps not be a major surprise if Andreas Christensen does not play this weekend and it hurts my double up of the Chelsea defence, although the bench should cover any absence.
Maybe Thomas Tuchel feels the 'easier' home games is a good chance to blood Chalobah while giving him two solid partners in Rudger and Thiago Silva, but Andreas Christensen may be considered for all of the 'bigger' games they are facing.
It certainly gives me some pause for thought when it comes to transfers going forward, but the Chelsea fixture list does get more difficult after the international break so any defensive moves with the players I have may have to wait.
I do like the squad I have, but I also think there are one or two players that may need to be moved around to really get it into a position I want to be in. The FOMO life means avoiding the Mohamed Salah Captaincy is a difficult choice, although this weekend may be the best time to do that if you favour fixtures over form.
It makes it much more difficult to look elsewhere when considering that Mohamed Salah has nine goals in eight games against West Ham United and has scored at least once in all but one of those fixtures. The West Ham United defence has looked vulnerable at times this season and tire off the back of their European exploits, while Liverpool continue to score goals at a huge rate away from home.
Couple those factors together and I think you have to stick your armband on the Egyptian who has been clear of all rivals in the Fantasy Premier League game too.
I am sticking with Kai Havertz for at least one more week, while the sub bench should be able to take care of any absentees with doubts about Bryan Mbeumo (injury knock) and Andreas Christensen (rotation risk as highlighted above).
The big decision may end up being whether I start with Michail Antonio or Cristiano Ronaldo, although the lean is with the West Ham United striker when looking at the underlying numbers of the Liverpool and Manchester City defences respectively.
My team should be posted on Twitter at around 7pm on Friday evening, but remember, the deadline is 6:30pm this week.
