NFL Week 11 Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th November-Monday 17th November)

Time has been a factor this week and that means that some of the additional NFL Picks will have to be placed in this thread on Sunday.

A longer thread should be put together for Week 12, but at least in this one you can read my thoughts on the selections being made.

It is the time of the season when some momentum is needed with the Picks and the last three all returned winners in Week 10 to make sure we avoided a really bad return. Hopefully that can be carried into this one and the following selections can produce a lot more winners than losers.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Pick: The Coaching staff may privately feel that their time in charge of the Miami Dolphins (3-7) is going to come to a conclusion at the end of the 2025 season, while there are questions around Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa. Despite that, and with some trades of key players, those remaining continue to be very focused and the upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 will have everyone feeling good.

This week the Miami Dolphins are playing the Washington Commanders (3-7) out in the Spanish capital in the latest of the international series games that the NFL continue to expand.

There were some concerns about what this season would look like for Miami before the first kick off, but the Washington season has been far below expectations. Injuries have been a real issue, but the Commanders reached the NFC Championship Game last season and they are unlikely to even make the Playoffs right now.

Jayden Daniels has suffered a couple of different injuries, but the one suffered most recently could see him miss the rest of the season if the Washington Commanders are not able to stay in touch with those chasing post-season spots.

Five straight losses have been suffered and the Washington Commanders have fallen apart Defensively in the last couple of games.

An inability to stop the run has made things very difficult for the Commanders and the Defensive Line are set for another significant challenge if the Miami Dolphins are able to pick up from where they left off in the win over the Bills. De'Von Achane had a big game in the win over the Bills and he should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and keep the Dolphins in third and short situations around the field.

He is also going to be a factor in the passing game and Tua Tagovailoa is likely going to have plenty of time to throw the ball in this one.

The Quarter Back will be facing a Secondary that has been banged up and Washington will struggle to contain this Miami team, which is going to put some real pressure on the team when they have the ball.

Without the athleticism of Jayden Daniels and his play-making skills, the Washington Commanders have struggled to run the ball with any consistency in recent games. The Offensive Line is not going to have things as easy they may have done several weeks ago to turn things around considering they are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has just found the right solutions to clamp down on the run.

Marcus Mariota is 32 years old now, but he is still capable of exploiting any running lanes that left in front of him, although the Commanders cannot afford to lose another Quarter Back and so will not ask him to do that too often.

His protection has not really been as strong as Mariota would have liked and the Commanders are banged up on this side of the ball, which means a lack of consistency.

This is not a Miami Secondary with some of the stars of recent years, but they have been competing pretty well and that should give the Dolphins the edge.

Backing up the big win over Buffalo is never going to be easy, especially for what has been a bad team, but recent performances have offered encouragement. With the Defensive unit still playing with some intensity, Miami can do enough to beat the Washington Commanders in Madrid and they can do it behind dominance at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The announcement that CJ Stroud is not going to be able to suit up for the Houston Texans (4-5) will be a disappointment, but you have to give Davis Mills so much credit for the performance produced in the Week 10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

He has been a backup over the last couple of years, but Mills showed he can be very solid in that spot having helped the team fight back and win the game after falling behind by a couple of scores.

That has pushed the Houston Texans back to close to 0.500 for the season and they remain in touch with the teams chasing a Playoff spot. The chances of catching the Indianapolis Colts are not lost with the Houston Texans due to play the AFC South leaders twice before the end of the regular season, but they cannot afford to overlook the Tennessee Titans (1-8).

Plenty of changes will be coming up in the off-season, but the Titans are dangerous as hosts and coming out of a Bye Week.

Losing four games in a row is obviously not a good thing, but the real disappointment has been the lack of competitiveness the Titans have been able to produce in those defeats. Once again they could be finishing with a top Draft Pick, although this time they are likely to trade out of the position and try and earn a quicker rebuild around Cam Ward at Quarter Back.

You do have to feel so sorry for Cam Ward who is in a very difficult spot.

The talent around him is not good enough if the upper management are being honest and it has meant asking far too much out of a rookie Quarter Back.

They failed to score in the first meeting with the Houston Texans and this is going to be another challenging afternoon for Cam Ward and the Titans Offensive unit. Coming out of a Bye means having had more preparation time to help out, but the Titans have found it very difficult to run the ball and that has heaped the pressure on Ward.

Adding to that is the inability of the Titans Offensive Line to keep the pass rush from out of the backfield and the Houston Texans are likely going to be able to rattle Cam Ward when he is in obvious passing situations. Even with time, the Quarter Back will be tested having to throw into this Houston Secondary considering the lack of playmakers on the team and it could be another day where Tennessee have their issues moving the ball with any kind of consistency.

While the Houston Offensive Line have not exactly been opening up big running lanes in recent games, they should still be good enough to keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field.

Aiding that is the fact that the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams from pounding the rock against them and this should make the life of Davis Mills very comfortable.

One thing the Titans do do well is rushing the passer, but that becomes all the tougher when a team is playing in third and short spots and Davis Mills should be able to expose a Secondary that has struggled.

As long as the backup Quarter Back avoids turning the ball over, Houston can win this one and cover the spread.

They are due to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, but the Texans cannot afford to look past a Divisional opponent after the start made this season and that should keep Houston motivated.

In recent years the Titans have a solid record against the spread when coming out of a Bye Week,  but they are now 0-13 against the spread when facing a fellow AFC team that has a losing record and in a game where Tennessee are given more than 3 points.

This could play out here as Houston chase a third straight win over this AFC South rival.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams are amongst the leading contenders to be playing in the Super Bowl next February and both are going to be wanting to bounce back from disappointing defeats.

It may be a non-Conference game, but it is an important one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and Buffalo Bills (6-3) who share the same record, but that leaves them in different places as far as the standings go.

The Bills are suddenly finding the New England Patriots pulling clear in the AFC East with their 9-2 record, but the Bills will have to travel to Foxboro before the season is concluded. After losing at home, that is a big game for the Buffalo Bills, but they cannot afford to look past a dangerous opponent and make sure they remain touch with the Patriots.

Buffalo also have to avoid thinking ahead to the Thursday Night Football game on deck, but the loss to the Miami Dolphins will have refocused the team.

In Week 11 they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have a lead in the NFC South and they remain the team to beat in the Division.

Injuries are having an impact, but Baker Mayfield has really found a good home as Quarter Back of the Buccaneers and he will be confident he can help the team bounce back after losing to New England.

There is a real chance that Baker Mayfield could have a bit more run support in this game- Bucky Irving will not suit up, but the Buccaneers have to be encouraged by seeing how the Dolphins battered Buffalo on the ground in the Week 10 upset. Merely being in front of the chains would be a big success for the team and really give the Quarter Back an opportunity to keep the chains moving without having to settle and wait for routes to develop down the field out of third and long spots.

He needs that with the likes of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans missing from the passing game, although the competitor in Baker Mayfield will find a way to get things done.

Baker Mayfield will be a little wary of the pass rush that the Buffalo Bills have been generating in recent games and obvious passing situations will be considered a poor outcome for the Buccaneers. Instead they will want to control the clock and make sure Josh Allen, a close friend of Mayfield's, is left to cool down on the sidelines.

Running the ball would be expected to a challenging task for the Bills to take on considering what has been seen from this Tampa Bay Defensive Line this season, but recent games have been disappointing.

You could excuse the performance against the Detroit Lions, but Tampa Bay were bullied by the New England Patriots too and allowed some big runs to be ripped off against them.

James Cook and company should be able to pound the rock with some real success in this one, while Josh Allen is capable of using his legs to move down the field.

The Quarter Back will want a bounce back effort from the whole Offensive unit after the really poor display in losing in Miami last week.

With the Tampa Bay pass rush, the pocket will collapse around Josh Allen, but he can escape that and run down the field, while also being able to have success attacking this Secondary. One of the big criticisms of the Bills upper management is not bringing in a real top Receiver for Josh Allen to target, but they should be able to find enough successes to keep the chains moving in this one and Buffalo can bounce back with a victory.

Head Coach Todd Bowles is very adept at getting his team to perform when set as the road underdog, and that potential distraction by an upcoming Thursday Night Football game for the Buffalo Bills is a concern.

However, Buffalo are looking to bounce back from a loss- Baker Mayfield has been very successful at doing that for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, but his team is still short of Offensive options and the Line of Scrimmage issues on the Defensive side of the ball leaves them vulnerable here.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Three wins in a row having given the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) momentum as they look to keep the pressure on the Denver Broncos at the top of the AFC West. A lot of credit has to be given to the Chargers for finding a way to winning positions even as the injuries have piled up and they can keep that going when travelling to the East Coast to play in the early Sunday slot.

They are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) who have lost three of the last four games and who will still be wondering how they managed to blow the big lead built up against the Houston Texans.

If the Playoffs begun today, the Jaguars would actually be playing in the post-season, but the momentum is against them and injuries have been hurting the team.

Trevor Lawrence is going to be without Travis Hunter for the foreseeable future, while Brian Thomas Jr remains a doubt. The Jaguars have traded for Jakobi Meyers, but he was supposed to complement what the team had rather than having to step up and learn the playbook very quickly to become the top Receiving option available to the Quarter Back.

In recent games, the Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Line have really begun to step up to clamp down on the run and they can have success against this Jacksonville team.

This is going to be a huge part of the game on this side of the ball- if the Chargers can keep the Jacksonville Jaguars in third and long spots, the Los Angeles pass rush is going to cause havoc going against this Offensive Line. With the Secondary playing at the level they have been in recent games, that pressure up front could lead to mistakes and Jacksonville may struggle to move the ball as effectively and efficiently as they will hope.

The Chargers will also look to lean on the run in order to put Justin Herbert in positive field position and not have this makeshift Offensive Line have to give the Quarter Back time to find Receivers down the field.

Injuries to the first two Running Backs on the depth chart have offered Kimani Vidal an opportunity and it is one that he has largely taken, although this week he will be facing a Jacksonville Defensive Line that have played the run quite well.

The Secondary have not operated at the same level and the Jaguars pass rush has been disappointing in recent games.

They should have success facing this Chargers Offensive Line, but Justin Herbert is showing why he is one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL by keeping the team moving in a positive direction. He has not been afraid to take the big hit for the benefit of the team and there are Receivers on the roster who can make the big plays for Justin Herbert and put the Chargers in a position to win this game.

He will make enough plays in this one to put Los Angeles in a position to remain in touch with the AFC West leaders and they can win here.

One factor that does hold back the enthusiasm for backing the Chargers is the fact they have won road games at Miami and Tennessee without covering, but they perhaps should have in the second of those games.

The Jaguars have shown some positive signs this season, but they were beaten at home by the Seattle Seahawks when set as the home underdog and the Chargers may have more Offensive consistency that gives them the edge in this one.

MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 28-27, - 1.64 Units (55 Units Staked, - 2.98% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2014 (November 13-17)

Week 10 Thoughts

2015 International Series announced for London: This past weekend saw the final International Series game in London for the 2014 season as Dallas blew out Jacksonville, but that was preceded by the announcement of the 2015 games.

To say it was a 'meh' moment would be an under-statement- three of the teams that have played in London this season are coming back, while the arrival of the New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills is not exactly the marquee names that fans might have been hoping for.

It was rumoured that the Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals were potential teams coming over, but instead we have the three teams in the AFC East that are not the New England Patriots and four of the six teams could easily end up the 2014 season with a losing record.

Detroit's return is good and Kansas City could come in off back to back Play Off appearances, but it does feel a slight let down to be honest.

Aaron Rodgers would have broken the NFL record for TD passes in a single game if Chicago had been anything like a competitive match up: That is not exactly true when you think of some of the ridiculous tackling and blown coverages the Bears made on at least three of the Touchdown passes that Aaron Rodgers threw, but the fact is that he has 6 at the half and the NFL record of 7 looked set to be broken.

However, Rodger was pulled from the game soon after half time and there was no need for the Packers to keep throwing as the Bears found themselves in a big hole by half time and the game was over.

Chicago look lost as a team and Jay Cutler continues to prove that he is not capable of leading what is a talented Offense to the next level, but it would be harsh to blame him completely.

Defensively the Bears have been a joke for much of the season, especially with injuries piling up on that side of the ball, and there isn't much anyone can do if teams hang 50+ points on you in back to back games. That was the first time it has happened in the NFL and it seems to put more pressure on Cutler to push to score points in a bid to keep up which also leads to more turnovers and mistakes.

With Detroit and Green Bay moving clear in the NFC North and a Wild Card spot already looking beyond them, this is a disappointing season for Chicago who might make some big changes once the season is over.

Soon find out how the Andy Dalton contract will work out against the Salary Cap: A good friend and I regularly catch up and talk some NFL and one of those conversations in the summer was how the Andy Dalton new contract would stand up against the salary cap- would it be as easy to cut Dalton and not be stuck with a lot of dead money against the cap or had the lawyers/agents worked out a way where it really was a yearly contract like the one Colin Kaepernick signed in San Francisco?

Both of those contracts are interesting ones to see how those teams can move on, but we could soon have our answer if Andy Dalton continues playing as horrifically as he does in Prime Time or Play Off games.

The latest was in the Bengals crushing home loss against the Cleveland Browns which means the latter lead the AFC North, the latest they have led a Division for twenty years.

But the story was about Dalton and his terrible play that consisted of overthrows, under-throws and picks and it must have the Bengals upper management wondering if he will ever be able to take them over the hill. The same questions existed about Joe Flacco in Baltimore, but he at least had Play Off success before his Super Bowl win and hasn't been as consistently average as Dalton.

If the Bengals miss the Play Offs, which is a real concern in a tight AFC North battle, there will be big questions that need answering in Cincinnati this off-season beginning with Dalton at Quarter Back.

Everyone must have had a Brock Osweiler moment:

This is by far and away one of the best things I have seen through the last week, absolutely priceless reaction from Brock Osweiler! He did actually get into the game the next play which moved the game into the Fourth Quarter and he has admitted that it has been taken with humour in the dressing room, but I bet he can't believe it was all caught on camera despite the number in the stadium on a game day.


Did you ever think there would be a worse Division than the NFC West from a few years ago? You remember right? The NFC West that sent a 7-9 Division winner to the Play Offs? Well the NFC South is on target to be even worse this season as was pointed out on Monday Night Football during yet another Carolina Panthers blow out loss.

At this point, the NFC South has seen their teams win just 5 of 25 games played outside of their Division games, while the NFC West that sent Seattle into the Play Offs managed to win 12 games outside of their Division.

It has been remarkable and highlighted by the Atlanta Falcons- the Falcons are just one game behind New Orleans for the lead in the Division, but the same Falcons are 0-6 in games against teams from outside the NFC South!!

Top Ten

1) New England Patriots (7-2): The New England Patriots move to the top of the class despite a bye week and can make their claims for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC by beating the Indianapolis Colts on the road this week.

2) Philadelphia Eagles (7-2): Mark Sanchez played well enough in his first game as starter to think the Eagles will be ok in the Nick Foles absence, but Green Bay will pose a much bigger test than the Carolina Panthers did.

3) Denver Broncos (7-2): Denver bounced back from their loss in New England by dominating Oakland.

4) Arizona Cardinals (8-1): Might be harsh to drop the team with the best record in the NFL despite winning in Week 10, but the loss of Carson Palmer is huge as is the fact that Drew Stanton starts the rest of the way.

5) Detroit Lions (7-2): Calvin Johnson is back, but Detroit can count their lucky stars they beat Miami last week. However, they would have lost that game in past seasons and deserve some credit for earning the W.

6) Green Bay Packers (6-3): Aaron Rodgers looked healthy and Green Bay are still the favourites to win the NFC North as they host Detroit down the stretch.

7) Indianapolis Colts (6-3): Andrew Luck can prove Indianapolis are for real in their home game with New England.

8) Dallas Cowboys (7-3): Tony Romo led Dallas to a blow out of Jacksonville and now has two weeks to get healthy for the big games down the stretch.

9) Kansas City Chiefs (6-3): The Chiefs had no right winning in Buffalo but can now push on with their belief they can make the Play Offs in back to back seasons.

10) Cleveland Browns (6-3): Credit to Cleveland for leading the AFC North at this late stage of the season, but there are more twists and turns to come in the most competitive Division in the NFL.

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (0-9): It is becoming more and more likely that Oakland are going to go winless this season.

31) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9): Congratulations London, Jacksonville are coming back in 2015 to avoid a third straight blow out loss at Wembley Stadium.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8): You can see how much things mean to Josh McCown, but Tampa Bay have been bad in Defense and may not win another game this season.

29) Tennessee Titans (2-7): Hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers may give Tennessee some belief considering the Steelers tendency to play up and down to opponent's levels.

28) New York Giants (3-6): I needed a New York team in the bottom five and give the Jets enough credit for their win over Pittsburgh to move them out and move the Giants in after they 'improved' their run to 4 losses in a row.

Week 11 Picks

After a pretty terrible Week 8, Week 10 proved to be another bounce back week thanks to four of the six picks coming in as winners. The Pittsburgh Steelers pick was bothering me all week, but I still went for it and it turned out to be as disappointing as I thought it might be, while the Dolphins were not just covering, but winning until the final minute of that game.

The disappointing aspect of the Miami pick was that they almost held Detroit to a Field Goal twice which would have meant overtime at worst and very likely to at least be a push.

Kansas City earned that luck instead by somehow beating Buffalo, while Dallas, Denver and Green Bay were very easy winners. It was the beating that Vegas took last weekend that prevented me picking Philadelphia on Monday Night Football, but the carnage continued with another blow out and a slight missed opportunity, although I won't be complaining after another decent week.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It does look like all the smart money in Vegas is backing the Buffalo Bills in this Thursday Night Football game as the spread has come down two points since Sunday, but I still believe getting more than a Field Goal start looks very promising.

The reason for that is I think both Offenses are going to find it very difficult to move the chains consistently with the Defensive pass rush likely to cause havoc on both sides of the ball. While they won't match Philadelphia's 9 sacks from Monday Night Football, I won't be surprised if the Buffalo and Miami teams don't combine for double digit sacks in this one.

Miami have a problem with Brandon Albert lost for the season which means a new Left Tackle and shifting an Offensive Line that struggled against Detroit on Sunday. Buffalo are no slouches at getting to the Quarter Back so expect Ryan Tannehill to be under immense pressure, particularly as the Bills have been stout against the run too and Lamar Miller is banged up.

On the other hand, the Dolphins have the likes of Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon making their way into the backfield and Kyle Orton might not be able to hold the ball as long as he likes. Like Buffalo, Miami have been decent at limiting the gains made on the ground which keeps Offenses in third and long and allows the likes of Brent Grimes to show off their coverage skills in the Secondary.

Cortland Finnegan may be missing for Miami which could give Orton some opportunities, but this looks a game that is going to be decided on big Defensive plays with turnovers likely to be a key. Leodis McKelvin has given Miami bulletin board material with his comments about 'beating that ass', but this looks a tight game in the making.

Buffalo hav won the last three in the series including a blow out win in Week 2, while they are also 4-2 against the spread in the last three seasons when dogged by more than a Field Goal and up to a 7 points. During the same time, Miami are 2-5 against the spread as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 7 points and in a tight game, I think taking the points is advisable.


Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I was hoping that the Seattle Seahawks would be a bigger underdog than this, but they remain the underdog and I do believe they can surprise people in Arrowhead. Marshawn Lynch could potentially miss the game for Seattle that does pose a problem, and I would be a lot more confident if it was announced that he is going to be active.

For all the pass rush ability Kansas City have, they have given up 4.7 yards per carry on the ground and you just know Seattle are very happy to try and run the ball down a team's throat all day. They proved that against the New York Giants last week and the Chiefs have also been outgained in back to back games, even though they have won both games.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks should have enough success running the ball to control the time of possession, although Kansas City will feel they can do the same with Jamaal Charles. Seattle have lost Brandon Mebane which could open up some of the running lanes that the Chiefs would not have expected to see, but Alex Smith will also look for the short, quick pass to keep the chains moving.

It's a close game and both have big games on deck, although Kansas City have to prepare for the short week which has proved difficult for teams this season. The Chiefs are also just 1-4 against the spread when favoured by 3 points or fewer at home, while Seattle are 4-1 as the road underdog of the same amount of points in the last three seasons.

The fact the Chiefs have been outgained in their last two games is a real worry too and I like taking the points in this game.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The Carolina Panthers look like a team that are desperate to get to their bye week and try and get healthy for the final few weeks of the regular season. Somehow they are still in the NFC South Divisional race despite losing 4 in a row and not winning any of their last 5 games, but this is a critical game for them as they are 1-1 in the Division and facing an Atlanta Falcons team that have won all 3 Divisional games already.

A big problem for Carolina is whether their Defense can step up and slow down the Falcons Offense which has played well in Divisional games if not against teams from outside of the NFC South. Atlanta should be able to run the ball which will only give Matt Ryan time to hit his Receivers down the field, while a limited Carolina pass rush won't disrupt him too much either, even if the Offensive Line has struggled at times.

It is the porous Offensive Line that has been a problem for Carolina and it has prevented them being able to establish the run, while also seeing Cam Newton being beaten around to the point of being banged up. Newton hasn't been as effective moving the ball with his legs and he seems a little tentative to do that, while also making a few mistakes in the passing game.

With the Defense giving up points as they are, I just don't think Cam Newton can lead this Panthers team to enough points to keep up with Atlanta. Carolina are just 3-5 against the spread as a small home underdog over the last three seasons and they are just 0-2 against the spread coming off Monday Night Football.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints Pick: You have to expect Andy Dalton is going to be a lot better than he was the last time Cincinnati played as he struggled to do the simple things right against Cleveland. The New Orleans Defense has given up some big plays through the air this season and Dalton should find his Receivers like AJ Green without the outdoor elements playing havoc with him as it did in Week 10.

Dalton should have success and he will need to because Drew Brees and the New Orleans Offense should be moving the chains all day. Mark Ingram has been playing very well in his contract year and should find a lot of room against a Bengals team that may focus on stopping the pass and have given up 4.5 yards per carry on the season.

With Ingram ripping off big gains on the ground, Cincinnati's lack of pass rush could be a concern as Drew Brees won't feel the pressure that he has in recent games that have led to mistakes. That is a bad trend for Saints fans as Brees has made plenty of errors that you wouldn't expect from him, but a healthy Jimmy Graham and being in third and short situations should clear those up for this week at least.

New Orleans have surprisingly failed to cover in two home games as the favourites this season which has not been typical of things under Sean Payton. They still have a strong record in that spot and I think they will be too strong for Cincinnati even if the Bengals have some strong trends backing them in this game off a big home loss.

Still, the spread has come down to a key number 7 and I think the Saints will come through and finally begin to take control of the NFC South.

Denver Broncos @ St Louis Rams Pick: I am trying to stay away from those teams that are being heavily backed by the public this week, but the Denver Broncos have made a habit of beating up on teams with losing records and the St Louis Rams could be in a spot of bother here.

The pass rush might have shown signs of life in their brutal beating of Colin Kaepernick, but the Denver Offensive Line protects Peyton Manning very well, thanks to the fact that Manning gets the ball out of his hands so quickly. There are too many Offensive weapons for St Louis to cover even if the Defense has shown improvement.

The bigger issue is how is Shaun Hill going to make enough plays to keep up with Denver, who should enjoy the quick field inside the Dome in St Louis? Hill was benched for Austin Davis earlier in the season after being knocked out of a game, but he isn't the most mobile of Quarter Backs and won't be afforded a lot of protection in this one. With DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller teeing off, Denver can shut down the run game and get to the Quarter Back.

Denver are also now 4-1 against the spread as the road favourite of more than a Touchdown up to 10 points and they are 14-3 against the spread against teams with losing records over the last three seasons. Jeff Fisher will have his St Louis team playing hard, but Denver are one of the best in these situations where Manning doesn't stop throwing and they could pull away for a big road win.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: It has been a tough few weeks for the Chicago Bears with their Defense taking some beatings from high-powered Offenses in New England and Green Bay, but they might have a little more luck taking on a Minnesota team led by a rookie Quarter Back.

The presence of Teddy Bridgewater might not be enough for the Bears Defense to slow them down completely as the Vikings should have success running the ball, but the rookie Quarter Back may make mistakes under pressure behind a porous Offensive Line.

Mistakes have been a big problem for Jay Cutler who might just be losing the support of the locker room and that could be a big problem for the Chicago Bears going forward. However, Cutler could restrict those mistakes by using Matt Forte in this one against a Vikings Defense that has given up yards on the ground, while Forte is also capable of coming out of the backfield and turning short passes into first downs.

If Chicago can run the ball and slow down the Vikings pass rush, they should have success moving the chains too and I think the Bears can bounce back from a couple of horrific performances.

Minnesota are very strong as a road underdog of a Field Goal or less, but I don't see them at the same level as Chicago on a neutral field which the spread suggests. As long as the Bears haven't given up on their Quarter Back, I think they can bounce back and win this game and cover the small spread.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: A game that will decide which team is leading the NFC through 11 weeks of the season should be a fascinating one and I am not surprised that the Arizona Cardinals are only a small favourite to beat the Detroit Lions.

Actually, scrap that, I am surprised Arizona are the favourites after losing Carson Palmer and was hoping to be able to pick the Cardinals as the underdog. However, this is a small spread and I still like Arizona to beat the Detroit Lions for the eighth time in a row at home, even with Drew Stanton at Quarter Back.

Stanton seems to be comfortable in the system that Bruce Arians will run in Arizona and he showed earlier this season that he can make enough plays to be successful. It won't be easy against this Detroit Defense, but Stanton could have time if the Offensive Line can protect him as they have whichever Quarter Back lines up behind them.

Matt Stafford could also have a big game throwing the ball and he will also need to with neither team excelling at running the ball. Yards on the ground could be hard to come by, but Stafford will like his chances throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate if Arizona can't get pressure on the Quarter Back.

However, the Detroit Offensive Line hasn't played that well and Stafford can be guilty of staring down Receivers which won't be a good thing against this ball-hawking Secondary. I also can see Arizona really putting it together to continue rallying around Stanton who would have eased some doubts with his 40 yard Touchdown pass after coming into the game last week.

Arizona have found they get the better of Detroit in recent games and this Defense may make enough plays against the Lions to do the same in Week 11. Detroit are just 1-5 against the spread when coming into a game off 2 or more consecutive wins and they haven't excelled as an underdog over the last three seasons.

The Cardinals are 24-10 against the spread in their last 34 games as the home favourite of less than a Field Goal so clearly feel inspired when there are some doubts about them and I like Arizona to win this game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Both the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles Defensive units will feel they can win their battles with the Offense in this one and lead their respective teams to a very big win in Week 11. They are right and I do think the Defense that steps up and makes the big play and give their Offense extra possessions will come through with the win.

Make no mistake about this- after Carson Palmer went down with an ACL injury that rules him out for the season, the Arizona Cardinals look vulnerable to maintain their lead in the NFC. That means either the Green Bay Packers or the Philadelphia Eagles will believe that winning their Division can lead to not just a bye in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs, but potentially the Number 1 Seed.

Games like this could be key tie-breakers to that regards and so both teams should be fully focused and it comes down to me believing Aaron Rodgers can make the big plays to win the game more than I do Mark Sanchez.

Both teams should have success with the ball in their hands, but Sanchez is more likely to turn the ball over in my opinion and that could make the difference in this one. Green Bay have been a strong home favourite with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and Philadelphia have also had the short week to prepare for this game.

The Eagles are 1-3 against the spread in the last three seasons coming off Monday Night Football and I think Rodgers is playing too well at the moment and can make some big throws to win his one.

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This is a game full of Play Off implications and which teams in the AFC are potentially going to have home field advantage through the Play Offs. Denver have beaten Indianapolis, and New England have beaten Denver so a win for the Patriots would give them the advantage for the Number 1 Seed, while a Colts win would give them a great chance considering the schedule left.

Tom Brady has raised his game when coming up against the Colts either because he was facing Peyton Manning or the upstart Andrew Luck and he has dominated Luck led teams. New England haven't just won those games, they have blown out the Colts including in the Play Offs last season and I like taking the points in this one.

Both teams should have a lot of success throwing the ball, but I like Darrelle Revis' ability to take away one of Andrew Luck's options and I still think the young Quarter Back can be forced into mistakes from time to time.

Brady has been playing at a very high level and has Rob Gronkowski back to full health, although I also will expect New England to employ Julian Edelman in running plays as well as Shane Vereen to take advantage of a Colts weakness and keep Luck off the field. The Colts have got a decent pass rush going, but Eric Walden could miss this game and failing to get pressure on Brady will only lead to another New England win.

The Patriots will feel they can limit anything Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw can do running the ball and this could be a game decided by the team with the ball last. I just won't be surprised if these three points given to the road team prove to be the vital difference.

0 Unit Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7.5, New York Giants + 3.5 Points, Houston Texans + 3.5 Points, San Diego Chargers - 10.5 Points

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 4 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 1 Point @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
New England Patriots + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 42-36-2, + 10.06 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units