NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 5-7 (April 29-May 5)

 

NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 5-7 (April 29-May 5)

The NBA PlayOffs have perhaps not been filled with the drama some would have hoped for, but we are moving into a position to have some very strong looking Conference Semi Final Series beginning next week.

That does not mean there is still not some work to do for the leading teams to move through to the next Round.

At the time of writing, only the Minnesota Timberwolves have swept their way through the First Round after humiliating the Phoenix Suns, although the Oklahoma City Thunder play on Monday bidding to become the second team through without dropping a game.

Six of the eight Series that have begun will need at least a Game 5, but there are a couple of teams heading back home to complete wins, while another is looking to secure the upset that many tipped in the First Round.

Will we get to a Game 7 in any of the First Round Series? Two are tied at 2-2 through four games, and so the feeling is that the Conference Semi Final Round could potentially begin this weekend instead of any Game 7's being scheduled to be played.

It has been an up and down time for the NBA PlayOff Picks and the key going forward is trying to find the consistency to at least push the positive surge forward.

In the main there has not been too many really down days, but that does not mean there is not room for improvement if trying to get anywhere near the number produced at the end of the 2023 post-season.

Tuesday 30th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: There has been frustration throughout this First Round Series for the Philadelphia 76ers- in Game 2 they feel the officiating cost them the chance to leave Madison Square Garden with a split of the first two games, while Joel Embiid voiced his disappointment that there has been so much vocal support for the New York Knicks in both Philadelphia road games.

He did not say much about that after the Game 3 win, but on Sunday night the Knicks held off the Philadelphia 76ers for an important victory that moves them 3-1 clear in the First Round Series.

The first chance of eliminating the 76ers comes on Tuesday when the Series shifts back to New York City and the Knicks have to be confident having won a game where Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo combined for 12 points and had a 3/18 shooting day from the field.

That isn't to say they did not impact Game 4 in a different way, but it also meant the New York Knicks had to lean on Jalen Brunson for the win. After struggling in the first couple of games, Brunson has found his touch in the post-season and set a new franchise record of 47 points while leading the Knicks to the road win.

Momentum is certainly with the Knicks now.

Outside of Game 3, the Knicks have really ramped up their Defensive strengths and they have been able to contain the Philadelphia threats. Shutting down Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey completely always looks to be unlikely, but they are harassing the two best 76ers and ultimately the role players have not been able to make an impact except for in the one game the 76ers won.

The hope for Philadelphia is that they can make the adjustments to get those role players going, but it has long been a much tougher test for those players when having to perform on the road. They almost won Game 2 inside The Garden so there is still hope for the 76ers to at least push this Series into Game 6 back at home, but the momentum has certainly swung very much behind New York.

The Knicks did not shoot the three ball very well in Game 4, which makes the win that much more impressive, but they should get back on the horse on Tuesday. Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5 of the First Round in the PlayOffs in recent years and the Knicks may just do enough to secure passage into the Conference Semi Finals without having to travel again.

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: The Fourth Quarter of Game 2 saw the Orlando Magic rally, but ultimately come up short against the Cleveland Cavaliers and they returned to Florida 2-0 down in this First Round Series.

However, it seemed like the Magic had found something that could give the Cavaliers problems in that Fourth Quarter and back to back home blowouts have seen them run with the momentum that may have been gained, even when coming up short.

All four games in this Series have been won by the home team and backing the home favourite has led to a 4-0 record against the spread.

Things may be about to change.

While the Magic have found the adjustmens and really ramped up their shooting, the steady Cleveland Cavaliers have not really found Offensive answers. Winning the first two games behind strong Defensive performances is one thing as the Cavaliers held the Magic to an average of 84.5 points per game, but Orlando's adjustments have seen them average 116.5 points per game in winning two in a row at home.

A young, inexperienced team have to show they can take those adjustments on the road, and that is where that Fourth Quarter rally in Game 2 may just give Orlando the confidence to win a game in this Arena. They did do that once in the regular season, although this will depend on the bench players showing they can compete in a very different kind of PlayOff intensity and atmosphere that comes with playing on the road.

The Cavaliers have yet to find their own Offensive identity and they may be relying on the Magic to miss more than actually sorting out their own issues as we move into Game 5 of the Series. Cleveland have yet to score more than 97 points in any game in this Series, although they will at least point to their better Offensive performances being at home having failed to crack 89 points in either road loss.

Being at home will help, and home teams have been strong in Game 5 in First Round Series outside of the NBA Bubble of 2020. However, those teams are only 20-20 against the spread, while being 31-9 straight up, and the Orlando Magic look to have rolled some serious momentum behind them.

This looks enough points to expect the road team to keep this one within the number set, especially as Orlando have every chance to winning this one outright.

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: The First Round exit to the Miami Heat twelve months ago meant there were some serious discussions in Milwaukee as to how the Bucks can get closer to winning another NBA Championship.

Pairing Giannis Antetokounmpo with Damian Lillard looked a very good plan and am mid-season decision to fire Adrian Griffin and replace him with Doc Rivers suggested they were all in to try and win the NBA Championship for the second time in four years.

Unfortunately the injury bug has bitten the Bucks at the wrong time with both Antetokounmpo and Lillard out of Game 4 as they ran out of steam in the defeat to the Indiana Pacers. A tough looking match up has now left Milwaukee with no room for error with the team trialing 3-1 and with both star players still doubtful to return.

To make matters worse, the Bucks have a banged up Khris Middleton trying to hold things down, while Bobby Portis was ejected during Game 4 to really make things very difficult for the road team. It means the Pacers have won three in a row and have all the momentum they need to try and secure a gentlemen's sweep of this First Round Series.

Quite a lot of factors have fallen in favour of the Indiana Pacers, but there is still room for improvement from the team leading 3-1. In two of the four games played in this Series, the Pacers have lit things up from the three point range, but they are still searching for the consistency that may give them a chance to progress further than the next Round.

Sharing the ball around and finding the hot hand worked in Game 4 as a short-handed Milwaukee team just could not keep up and especially not after Middleton was banged up again and Portis was thrown out of the game.

At home you would expect the Bucks to show their Championship resiliency, but something similar may happen here.

You would make a hard case for the Milwaukee Bucks having enough bodies to keep this one competitive if they fall into a early hole and the Pacers might just be ready to move through to the Conference Semi Finals, which may begin as soon as Saturday if Indiana can win one of the next two games.

Wednesday 1st May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The three point onslaught in Game 2 saw the Miami Heat upset the odds and earn a split of the first two games of this First Round Series, but most would have expected that to be an outlier in the overall scheme of this PlayOff clash.

And ultimately those opinions look to be proven to be right.

The Boston Celtics might have had one or two mental demons to exorcise after losing Game 2, but this is a team that has a clear focus on trying to win the NBA Championship. That means needing to respond like Champions and the Celtics have done just that by blowing out the Heat in back to back road games and now moving to the brink of earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

At this stage it would be a real upset if the Celtics are not able to complete the job and most likely as soon as Game 5 is played on Wednesday.

It has not been a perfect Series by any stretch of the imagination and Kristaps Porzingis looks to have picked up an injury that may keep him out until the Eastern Conference Finals at best. The Celtics are unlikely to risk him considering the important role he has been playing with the team, but they will be confident that they can make relatively comfortable passage even if they have to give Porzingis time to recover.

There is also still more to come from the top names on the roster, but the Boston Celtics have to be pleased with the dominance they are showing in this Series even without Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown needing to take control of games. The roster has been built to have threats all over the court and that is what we have seen, coupled with Defensive intensity that has suffocated a Miami Heat team badly missing Jimmy Butler.

The only real hope the Heat had was to nail their three pointers at the clip they managed in Game 2, but that has always felt unsustainable for four out of seven games to win this Series. They managed 23 three pointers in that Game 2 win, but just 18 combined in the last two games at home and neither has been as close as the 20 point and 14 point margins of victory would suggest.

Covering this spread will not be easy as the Celtics have clearly taken their foot off the gas in the last couple of wins, and did the same in Game 1, but they have shown they can build massive leads before they do that.

The chance to eliminate the team that upset their NBA Championship aspirations last year will have given Boston the motivation to ensure they have gotten into position to have those big leads, and that may be the case again in Game 5.

The line has moved up a couple more points with the Series heading back to Boston, but it is shorter than the one set for Game 1 and Game 2 with the Porzingis injury perhaps being a contributory factor. The Celtics have covered double digits spreads in all three of their wins in this First Round Series and they can do that again on Wednesday as they move into the Conference Semi Finals, which could begin this weekend.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 5 Pick: The end of the First Quarter in Game 4 of this First Round Series saw the big road underdog finish with a 23 point lead over the Dallas Mavericks as they looked to square up the Series. There will have been some panic on the Los Angeles Clippers sideline when the Mavericks fought all the way back to level the game, but somehow the veteran team held off the rally and return home at 2-2.

It was a remarkable game and one that will have hurt the Dallas Mavericks.

Perhaps they were overconfident having won two in a row in the Series and with Kawhi Leonard sitting out, but the deep hole of the end of the First Quarter proved to be costly for the Mavericks who now have to win at least once more in Los Angeles if they are going to progress to the Conference Semi Finals.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be rested by the time that Series comes around, and so it is important for the Mavericks to exert some control. The last three Quarters of Game 4 will have given them some momentum and the Mavericks have been favoured in all four games in this First Round Series, which makes the fact it is tied at 2-2 all the more disappointing as far as they are concerned.

For the Clippers, replicating the hugely efficient three point shooting day will be the challenge as they look for a couple more upsets to keep the NBA Championship hopes alive for a veteran roster. Failing to win a Championship will likely mean big chances are coming this off-season, although a deep PlayOff run may persuade the higher ups to give the likes of Leonard, Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook one more run.

In the previous two games, both losses, the Clippers had struggled to have an impact from the three point shooting range and that has given the Dallas Mavericks an edge. Defensively the Clippers are giving themselves a chance, and that is going to be key for the team again if they are going to find a way through to the Conference Semi Finals.

It has been a competitive Series, but the response of the Mavericks in the last three Quarters of Game 4 should see them come out much faster than they did in that one. They cannot afford to be chasing again, but showed they do have an ability to drag back the Clippers if needed.

This time the Mavericks may be in the game at the end of the Third Quarter and that could lead to them finding the big plays late on to secure a win and cover.

Thursday 2nd May

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: The First Quarter ended with an 8 point deficit, but the Milwaukee Bucks were not prepared for the season to end and dominated the middle two Quarters to pummel the Indiana Pacers and force Game 6 on the road.

Keeping the positives going will not be easy without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Milwaukee Bucks have found something in the last three games.

Bobby Portis had a very big Game 6 having apologised to his team mates for being ejected in Game 5 and allowing the team to be overwhelmed. Without the top two names on the roster, Portis and Khris Middleton have become major players for the Milwaukee Bucks and the former showed in his 29 point effort in Game 6 just how important he is going to be for the remainder of this Series and potentially beyond.

Finding the same quality of shots on the road will be a challenge for the Milwaukee Bucks, but they will feel they are still being very competitive against the Indiana Pacers, who are not as experienced when it comes to winning PlayOff Series.

The depth of the Pacers makes them dangerous, and they should be all the better for being back at home despite absorbing a big haymaker in Game 5. They shot the ball incredibly well in Game 4 at home, but the three point shooting has not been as strong for the Pacers in the games around that one and it should give the Bucks an opportunity if they can keep all of their players involved in the game.

Winning here will be very tough, but road teams are 29-10 against the spread in Game 6's of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent years and the Milwaukee Bucks look to be receiving enough points where they can be backed to keep this one competitive.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: We have already seen the Philadelphia 76ers recover from an incredible collapse in a PlayOff game once in this First Round Series, but it is going to be the New York Knicks looking to do the same when Game 6 is played on Thursday.

The Series looked to be coming to an end with the Knicks holding a two possession lead and with thirty seconds remaining, but things turned around just as unexpectedly as the Game 2 that New York won. This time they were forced into Overtime before coming up short as they looked to close out a Series at Madison Square Garden for the first time in almost thirty years.

Bouncing back will not be easy and the Knicks have struggled to find their shooting rhythm outside of Jalen Brunson, who is trying to carry this team into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals again.

Earlier in the Series others were stepping up for New York, but there has be a concern with the level of performance in the last couple of games. Josh Hart has been having his struggles, while the depth of rotation is not as great as the New York Knicks fans would have hoped.

Injuries have played a part and the Knicks have to find a way to lift themselves having more than a single foot moving into the Conference Semi Finals before capitulating late on in Game 5.

For Philadelphia, the feeling is that they have deserved to at least have one more game at home even if it came about in unexpected fashion. They have been very much relying on Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid to lead the way and have some of the other players on the roster chip in, something that should be easier to do at home.

It will be the game plan going forward for the 76ers, but the feeling is that the Defensive schemes are getting on top of the opponent.

This has been key in Game 6's in recent years in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and that has also been important for road teams in their bid to cover. Those on the road looking to close out a Series have also been very successful against the spread and the New York Knicks can be backed to bounce back from the heartbreak of Game 5.

Friday 3rd May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic Game 6 Pick: A strong start was needed and made by the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 having dropped back to back games in this First Round Series. Both losses had been on the road and they would have been extremely concerned about potentially losing in the First Round of the PlayOffs for a second season in a row if the Orlando Magic had stolen home court advantage away.

It all came down to the final ninety seconds of Game 5 with the Cleveland Cavaliers holding on to a narrow lead and they did just enough to secure a single point win, one point that means leading 3-2 and with the chance of earning a spot in the Conference Semi Finals against the Boston Celtics as soon as Friday evening.

Doing so without Jarrett Allen made the win that much more special for the Cleveland Cavaliers and gives them options- they can either choose to begin Allen on the bench for Game 6 to make sure he is fully ready to go in case of any Game 7, or bring him back into the fold as long as he can deal with the bruised hip that kept him on the sidelines a couple of days ago.

This is a game time decision for the Cavaliers, but the 3-2 lead has allowed them to think ahead as to how they can approach the end of this First Round Series. They did crack 100 points for the first time in this Series, but the Cavaliers have to show they can compete much better on the road than they have in Game 3 and Game 4 when suffering blowouts.

The Magic will be disappointed with the defeat in Game 5, but they have been much more confident at home and the shooting efficiency backs up that belief. After nailing down 12 three pointers in Game 3 and 13 in Game 4, the Magic only managed 9 in the last game and that effectively proved to be pivotal to the narrow margin in which they were beaten.

Players have been much more comfortable in home settings and Orlando have been stronger on both ends of the court in front of their own fans. Hosts of Game 6 have not had a very successful time of late and road teams closing out a Series in Game 6 have tended to be strong covering options, but the Magic have to have more confidence after the way in which they have both games at home in this Series.

Game 5 proved to be the first one in which the host has failed to cover in this First Round Series and the Orlando Magic can ensure that is the exception as they push for a win and cover that forces a Game 7 decider on Sunday.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: It really did feel like the Dallas Mavericks may still have had the momentum, despite dropping Game 4 at home, and that was largely down to how they performed for all but a single Quarter in that one.

Game 5 had a similar feel with the First Quarter being closely contested against the Los Angeles Clippers, but this time the Mavericks were not 23 points behind and instead a single point ahead. From that moment it was all Dallas and the blowout win on the road has given them a 3-2 lead in the Series and with an opportunity to close out and progress into the Conference Semi Finals as soon as Friday evening when the Series shifts back to Texas.

Luka Doncic played through illness and an injury, one that he felt would have meant rest in the regular season. However, this is the PlayOffs and it is all pumps to the deck as Dallas look to fight past an injury hit Los Angeles Clippers who have a veteran core that may be wearing down.

They did hang onto the win in Game 4 even when the huge lead evaporated, but that would have meant a considerable effort from the Clippers and it perhaps hurt them last time out. There is little time for rest between Game 5 and Game 6, but having the likes of Paul George and James Harden playing fewer than 34 minutes each will at least help a little bit as the Clippers hope to bring this Series back to Los Angeles for a PlayOff decider.

Kawhi Leonard missed out again and has to be considered doubtful for Game 6- even if he finds a way to suit up, Leonard is going to be limited and all of the chips are now in favour of the Dallas Mavericks having won three of the last four games.

Most have been close so this spread seems a touch high, especially if the travelling back and forth from Los Angeles means a little more suffering for Luka Doncic. He showed he can battle through and be very effective and was also given considerable rest in the Fourth Quarter of Game 6 to ensure he is going to be ready and that should mean Dallas are in a position to move into the Conference Semi Finals.

Covering might be more challenging, but it should be noted that the last two Dallas wins in this Series have been by double digits so the play is to back them to find some big buckets in the Fourth Quarter to pull clear of this line set.

Sunday 5th May

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick: Out of all of the First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, there was a feeling of inevitability about seeing a Game 7 between the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Seven of the eight Conference Semi Finalists have moved through to the next Round without the need for a decider, but this one is going to have that Game 7 on Sunday after the Orlando Magic made it six straight wins for the home team on Friday evening.

They covered the mark after a meaningless three pointer was missed at the buzzer by the Cleveland Cavaliers, but it was another close game following the one point win for the Cavaliers in Game 5. Donovan Mitchell was huge for Cleveland, despite not looking at 100%, but he was not supported enough and the Cavaliers might be a touch concerned about their top player and what he has left in the tank.

Being back at home will help considering the impact of the role players at home compared with on the road.

The same can be said for the Magic, albeit from a negative stance, with the team not nearly as effective in their three road games as they have been at home. Momentum is with Orlando having won three of the last four games and only just coming up short in Game 5 on the road, but this is a young core of players lacking post-season experience and that could be telling.

Jarrett Allen has missed the last two games and his return will be very important for Cleveland as they look to fend off the opponent they 'wanted' to face in the First Round having allowed themselves to tank on the final day of the regular season. The Number 1 Seeded Boston Celtics will be rested and waiting in the wings for whoever comes through, but there feels like a bit more pressure on the Cleveland shoulders with another First Round exit likely leading to significant off-season decisions to be made.

In recent times, the favourite has tended to prevail in these First Round Game 7s, although those teams are only 6-10-1 against the spread when going 13-4 straight up.

Cleveland are unsurprisingly the favourites, but the line has dipped a couple of points from where it stood in Game 1 and Game 2 and that underlines the feeling that the Orlando Magic have been the better team.

Backing the Magic to finally get over the line on the road looks to be the right decision as the First Round concludes on Sunday.

SIDE NOTE- the Conference Semi Finals begin on Saturday, the day before the First Round is concluded. The first selection and thread for Game 1-4 can be read here.

MY PICKS: 30/04 New York Knicks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/04 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/04 Indiana Pacers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

01/05 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

01/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

02/05 Milwaukee Bucks + 8 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

02/05 New York Knicks + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

03/05 Orlando Magic - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Dallas Mavericks + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

05/05 Orlando Magic + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 5th)

After a solid couple of weeks, things came crashing down with a thump on Wednesday.

I have written before that I have needed some luck with my selections to pick up the results I have had, but that luck can turn against you at a moment's notice.

Bad Picks have largely been avoided, but that was not the case on Wednesday- Casper Ruud and Amanda Anisimova were poor selections all things considered, but I could not have seen Simona Halep playing as poorly as she did.

However, the Picks that have bothered me are the Alexander Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Stefanos Tsitsipas selections.

Alexander Zverev was leading 4-2 and had break points to move further ahead in the first set before losing four games in a row. He later missed a 0-40 position to earn a double break in the second set which would have given him a chance to cover against Marin Cilic, but ultimately won comfortably enough.

That loss hurt and was followed by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina somehow losing to Hubert Hurkacz- in his case he had break points in two games in the first set and couldn't convert either time before losing the set with the first break points faced.

Later he had moved ahead by a double break, but could not seal the second set without dropping his serve at 5-2 and that meant needing a break of serve in the final set. Again he could not hold onto serve.

Finally Stefanos Tsitsipas was winning 6-3, 3-1 and had a 0-40 situation... Of course that would wrap up the day with a failure to earn the double break and eventually cruise through the remainder of the win over Lucas Pouille in a 6-3, 6-4 win and another miss of the cover by half a game.

I couldn't believe the way the day went down and it is my worst one on the clay courts by a considerable distance.

Things can turn around, but I do think it is important to try and relax and focus on what you are doing.

Anything that could go wrong, went wrong on Wednesday, but those were selections which would usually have been much more likely to have covered than not. With that in mind I am disappointed, but I am also a realist and accept that the research wasn't wrong, but the luck was simply missing when players were not converting situations that had come up.

On Thursday there are a lot of matches scheduled to be out on the Madrid courts, and I would be extremely disappointed to have as a poor a day again.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Both of these players were a part of the 'Big Four' of Men's Tennis a few years ago, but Andy Murray was not really able to keep up with the consistency of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. He was still a player that has been involved in Finals against all of those top players of the Tour and the fact of the matter is that this is the thirty-seventh time Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be facing one another on the Tour.

While Andy Murray is trying to regain some of the form and consistency he once displayed on the Tour, Novak Djokovic is still the World Number 1.

However, Andy Murray has played more matches than Novak Djokovic in 2022 largely down to the unvaccinated path the latter has chosen and that does raise some questions as to how this match will develop. The British player was not supposed to play on the clay courts this season, but he has taken a Wild Card here in Madrid to get some more competitive tennis underneath him and Andy Murray has been a very strong winner in his two matches played.

Wins over Dominic Thiem, who is coming back from injury, and Denis Shapovalov means Andy Murray has won two matches in the same tournament for the first time since January. His level of performance in those wins has to be greatly respected, although Andy Murray has already admitted that this is a really tough match for him and will be a marker to see how far he is from really competing with the top players again.

Novak Djokovic reached the Final in Belgrade in the last tournament he has played and he was a very comfortable winner over Gael Monfils in the Second Round in Madrid. The lack of competitive tennis has meant Djokovic has been struggling with his own consistency and the serve has been particularly difficult for him with Novak Djokovic winning less than 60% of the points played behind serve on the clay courts.

He has also not returned as well as we have become used to seeing from Novak Djokovic, but the battling wins in Belgrade will stand him in good stead.

Matches between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have tended to be competitive, but the clay courts have given the Serb a little more of an edge.

I am expecting Murray to be inspired to show how much he still has in the tank, but Novak Djokovic will be comfortable with the match up too and my feeling is that the World Number 1 can build on the Second Round win. Novak Djokovic did win the Madrid Masters when he last played here and I do think he will be able to find enough quality returns to attack the Andy Murray second serve and eventually pull clear in this match, even while still looking to rediscover his very best form on the court.

Andy Murray had lost all five matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2022 before the win over Denis Shapovalov and he has found himself just wearing down against those opponents. Someone like Novak Djokovic is likely going to want to keep Andy Murray moving as much as possible and it could see fatigue wear down the former World Number 1 against a player that is looking like he will soon be finding his best on the court.

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v David Goffin: He may have been watching his beloved Real Madrid produce a stunning comeback in the Champions League Semi Final on Wednesday, but Rafael Nadal has been producing plenty of his own over the last twelve months. An injury layoff saw the Spaniard return and win the Australian Open earlier this season, while Rafael Nadal has returned to the Tour in Madrid having been missing since reaching the Indian Wells Final.

The rib injury did not seem to be bothering Rafael Nadal too much in his Second Round win over Miomir Kecmanovic and it was an impressive return against an in-form opponent.

He may feel he has to raise his level again in the Third Round when Nadal takes on David Goffin who has won a couple of Qualifiers and then followed that up with a couple more wins in the main draw of the Madrid Masters. After a couple of really underwhelming years on the clay courts, David Goffin has already won a title on the surface in 2022 and the wins being stung together will have given him a lot of confidence.

As much as you have to respect any Qualifier that has won four matches in a row and clearly enjoying the conditions at the event, David Goffin has not faced anyone of the quality of Rafael Nadal. This is the clay court event where Rafael Nadal has tended to be more vulnerable than the others on the Tour, but I am not sure someone like David Goffin has the tennis to really take advantage of the conditions to hurt Nadal regularly.

David Goffin has put together some decent numbers on the clay courts and he has not played badly when he has been put up against top 50 Ranked opponents either.

Again, I cannot emphasise enough how much of a challenge Rafael Nadal presents on the surface and I do think he is going to be able to break down David Goffin, much as he has done in their previous matches.

They have not met since 2019 on the clay courts at the French Open, but Rafael Nadal has won all four previous matches on the surface against David Goffin. In those matches, Rafael Nadal has held 93% of the service games he has played, while David Goffin has only managed to hold 61% of his own service games.

It may be a little closer in terms of numbers in this Third Round match with Rafael Nadal having missed a few weeks of the Tour and David Goffin in decent shape on the clay courts.

Even with that in mind, I do think the Spaniard will be able to find the tennis to move through to the Quarter Final and I think Nadal's ability to break the Goffin serve should give him every chance of covering a big spread.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jil Teichmann @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 12-17, - 12.42 Units (58 Units Staked, - 21.41% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 5th)

There is another busy day coming up at the Madrid Masters and I am looking to back up what was a decent Tuesday.

It could have been better, but over the last month I can certainly feel things could always be worse and especially after more Set/Match Points that came and went in some of the matches that I had selected.

Petra Kvitova + 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty:  There had been very little sign throughout her career to suggest that the first Grand Slam title that Ashleigh Barty was going to win would come at the French Open. The best run the Australian had previously had any Grand Slam was reaching the Quarter Final at the Australian Open in 2019, but Barty surprised many by picking up the French Open title later in the same year and she will head to Paris as one of the two players whose last appearance on those courts had been in winning the title.

After missing the entirety of the 2020 season following the Covid-19 outbreak, Ashleigh Barty has returned to clay court action by winning the title in Stuttgart and she has won three matches in reaching the Madrid Quarter Final. Confidence on the red dirt is clearly still very high in the Barty camp, although the most evident part of her performances over the last month has been the fight that Barty has shown to turn matches that looked to have gotten beyond her.

The ability to work out where a match is being won and lost and to be able to make the changes to the tennis to turn them around is highly impressive from Barty and something her opponent will know all about. On a number of occasions Ashleigh Barty has recovered from tough positions to beat Petra Kvitova and I am not that surprised to see the current World Number 1 going into this Quarter Final as the favourite.

In saying that, I think it would be foolish to ignore the amount of tight matches that Barty has been involved in regardless of the fact she has found the right tennis to win many of those. Now she has to take on Petra Kvitova who has twice reached the Semi Final at the French Open and who has long been a very competent clay court player despite her only Grand Slam successes coming on a vastly different surface as the grass at Wimbledon is.

Petra Kvitova has not been at her very best on the clay courts so far this season, but her three wins in Madrid have been impressive and the faster conditions here should suit the kind of style that the Czech lefty wants to bring to the court. Both players have been serving well in Madrid and there is room for improvement in their return games and I do anticipate a tight match between these two top WTA players.

The underdog does look to be peaking in this tournament and matches between Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty have been very, very competitive in recent years which makes the amount of games being given to the Czech player look very appealing. I think she is a comfortable enough clay courter to hurt Ashleigh Barty and the latter has just about crossed over the line in the last two Rounds compared with Petra Kvitova who has looked the stronger player.

Ashleigh Barty has been facing a lot more break points than Petra Kvitova in the tournament to this point too and I expect the returning of the latter to at least give her a chance to win a set and keep this match very close even in a losing effort.

More than half of their previous nine matches have needed a third set decider to determine the winner and both have had four match winning streaks against the other. Petra Kvitova snapped her four match losing run by beating Ashleigh Barty in Doha fifteen months ago and I think this has all the makings of a very tight match when looking at the numbers both have been producing on the clay courts over the last month.

Paula Badosa - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: A career best World Ranking was reached by Paula Badosa last month and you would think the next few weeks offers her a really good chance to build on that with the clay courts her favoured surface. A run to the Semi Final in Charleston was a good start for the Spaniard, but she has backed that up with three wins here in Madrid to reach the Quarter Final where she will begin as favourite.

At 23 years old, Paula Badosa looks like an improving player on the Tour and she is beginning to put some consistency on her performances which are pushing her up the World Rankings. It is important to help Badosa enter the biggest tournaments without the need for a Wild Card in the future, but she has taken full advantage of the opportunity that has been afforded to her in Madrid.

The first three matches have been tough for Badosa and the big concern has to be the amount of time she has spent on the court. The Spaniard needed more than two and a half hours to beat Anastasija Sevastova in the Third Round, but the set up in Madrid this season has given the players a chance to have a day of rest between matches and that could be vital for Badosa.

She will take on a higher Ranked opponent in the form of Belinda Bencic, but consistency has been a big issue for the Swiss player over the last twelve months. When the World Rankings return to the usual format I fully expect to see Bencic have a significant drop from her current World Number 11 spot, although the run to the Quarter Final in Madrid will be valuable to her.

Valuable and surprising considering the level that Belinda Bencic has found on the clay courts where she has proven to be a pretty average performer in recent years. Belinda Bencic had been just 1-2 on the clay courts in 2021 before her run in Madrid and she has been a touch fortunate in the last two Rounds to work her way past a couple of opponents who will feel they could have had a different result on a different day.

Belinda Bencic has been producing better service numbers than Paula Badosa, but there is a massive edge in the returning aspect the two players have produced. The Spaniard is winning over 50% of return points played compared with Bencic's 39% mark in this tournament and I do think that will be the key difference when this Quarter Final is decided.

Paula Badosa also holds an edge mentally when you think of the way she dismantled Bencic over three sets in Charleston last month- the American clay is different to the European clay and the faster conditions should help Bencic here, but Badosa got enough out of her first serve to break down the Bencic game over the two plus hours they spent on the court.

The expectation to win might be a hindrance to Paula Badosa, but I think she will likely see herself as the underdog and I expect that to focus her and help get the better of Belinda Bencic. I do think the Spaniard is the better clay courter of the two and looks to be playing the better tennis too which could make all the difference in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 12-10, + 1.74 Units (44 Units Staked, + 3.95% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Second Round Picks 2019 (April 27-May 6)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- Second Round Series Games 1-4 (April 27th-May 6th)

The Second Round of the NBA PlayOffs begin this weekend and the Eastern Conference Semi Finals have been decided a few days ago while we have yet to get the pairings of the Western Conference at the time of writing.

It was always felt that the Eastern Conference was top loaded while the Western Conference was more competitive from Number 1 through 8 Seed and that is how the PlayOffs have worked out. However from this stage we should be expecting to see both Conferences producing some top PlayOff games and that all begins on Saturday.

One of the Western Conference First Round Series has gone to a Game 7 so the Second Round Series involving the Portland Trail Blazers will begin on Monday, but the other three Series could all get underway on Saturday and Sunday as long as the Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 6 on Friday.

Saturday 27th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 1 Pick: The Eastern Conference half of the NBA PlayOffs has offered very little drama outside of the opening day of the post-season. On that day both the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers were upset at home as they dropped Game 1 of their First Round Series, but both were then able to sweep up the next four games to move through to this Second Round Series.

The intensity of the PlayOffs are going to ramp up now and the Toronto Raptors have to face their poor history in the post-season which has seen them lose fourteen of their sixteen Game 1s played. A number of those Series have been turned around, but the Raptors are looking to make a statement with this opening game of this Second Round Series and they are favoured to make a positive start.

That is going to encourage a fair few to back the Philadelphia 76ers, but the visitors are going to need to play a pretty perfect Series if they are going to work their way past this opponent. The Raptors have matched up well with the 76ers in the regular season, although both teams have changed somewhat thanks to moves made ahead of the trade deadline.

Marc Gasol's arrival with the Raptors was a trade made to counter what Joel Embiid can bring the 76ers on the court. However the bigger concern for Philadelphia may be the knee issue that has been plaguing Embiid in the First Round Series with the Brooklyn Nets. If he is limited it is going to be that much more difficult for the 76ers to win this Series especially as they don't have the same depth that the Raptors can bring to the court.

The likes of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are capable of getting very hot from the field, but it does feel like the 76ers are going to be relying on special performances from individuals to win this Series. Toronto have a superstar of their own in Kahwi Leonard who dominated the First Round Series against the Orlando Magic and the roster around him looks more capable than the one the 76er have.

Toronto won and covered in both home games against the Philadelphia 76ers in the regular season and have improved to 4-0 against the spread in their last four here against the 76ers. The home team and the favourite has had strong trends in the recent games between these teams and I do think the Raptors are the better team.

Their Game 1 record in the NBA PlayOffs is a bit of a concern, but I will lay the points with the Raptors.


Sunday 28th April
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: This looks like being the Eastern Conference Second Round Series which is most likely to produce the team that will compete for the NBA Finals out of this Conference. The Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers will feel they can have something to say about that, but the Milwaukee Bucks finished with the best record in the East and the Boston Celtics were the pre-season Eastern Conference favourites.

Both teams looked very strong in the First Round as they swept past the Detroit Pistons and the Indiana Pacers respectively and both look to be peaking for this time of the Play Offs.

Right now it feels like the Milwaukee Bucks are still the stronger team, but the way the Boston Celtics have built their chemistry in the final few weeks of the regular season as well as their performances in the First Round of the Play Offs bodes well for them. It certainly makes Game 1 much more intriguing despite the fact that the Bucks are pretty big favourites to win.

Revenge will also be on the mind of the Bucks who were beaten in the First Round of the PlayOffs by the Boston Celtics in 2018. That Series needed all seven games to separate the teams and the home team won all of those games so the feeling is that home court is going to be very important in this Second Round Series too.

In the regular season the Milwaukee Bucks edged out the Boston Celtics 2-1 in the head to head and the only game played between these teams in Milwaukee ended with a single point win for the home team.

The rest is going to make this an interesting Game 1 with both teams admitting they have had enough time to take a break between the First and Second Round Series. It does make you wonder if the Offensive chemistry may just be affected without the rhythm of games that teams are used to in the NBA, especially as both teams have some of the better Defensive players in the League.

Marcus Smart's continuous absence is a concern for the Celtics, but I do think the total points line could be a touch on the high side for this Game 1. The 'under' has gone 7-1 in the last eight games Boston have played against a team who have won at least 60% of their games, while it is also 6-2 in their last eight games when playing on three or more days rest between games.

The 'under' has also covered in the last four games Milwaukee have played when playing on three or more days rest and I think the two teams will have something of a feeling out process against each other in Game 1. They are two talented teams capable of scoring plenty of points when they find their rhythm, but I am looking for the rest to have just cooled down the Offenses and both teams being challenged by much teams than they played in the First Round.

I am looking for a slow first half that may be enough to make sure the total line is not breached in Game 1.


Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: The Houston Rockets have been well rested and have been preparing in the Bay Area for a couple of days in anticipation of the Western Conference Second Round Series beginning on Sunday. It turned out to be the correct decision when the Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday to earn their spot in the next Round.

It was a more difficult Series for the Golden State Warriors than most would have imagined as they needed six games to see off the Clippers. A bigger worry has to be the knocks suffered by the key players of Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry which makes them a doubt for Game 1.

The task to beat the Houston Rockets would be that much tougher for the Warriors if both are sitting out and it would be something of a measure of revenge for the Rockets who feel they lost the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors last year because of a key injury to Chris Paul when 3-2 up in the Series.

Any sympathy for any injury concerns for the Golden State Warriors would have been lost in that moment and this is a Houston team who have been preparing for twelve months for revenge. They will feel they are the team best equipped in preventing the Warriors from making it to five straight NBA Finals out of the Western Conference and I do think this has the makings of a classic Series.

Games between these teams in the regular season have shown how close this Series could be as Houston have really played well against Golden State. With Game 1 coming just two days after the Warriors completed their First Round Series I do think we are going to see a situation where Houston have every chance of stealing away Home Court from their hosts.

The hosts do have a strong record in the Second Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but teams coming off big wins have struggled against the spread. Th Rockets are also 3-0 against the spread when set as the underdog of 5 or more points this season and I do think they are going to be mentally ready to make a statement against the Warriors on Sunday.

Houston have not performed off a rest as they would have liked, but Golden State are 19-40-2 against the spread off a double digit win. I will look for the Rockets to cover with the start on the handicap in this one.


Monday 29th April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: The Toronto Raptors may have had something more to prove than simply winning Game 1 as they didn't want to hear the same naysayers speaking about their team if they had dropped that game yet again in the NBA PlayOffs. After doing that in the First Round the likes of Kahwi Leonard made it clear the history of the franchise was not bothering him at all in first PlayOff run as a Raptor and it was Leonard who dominated Game 1 of this Second Round Series.

The Raptors comfortably saw off the Philadelphia 76ers and it is a big test for the road team to come out and show they can make this a much more competitive Series than it has looked at the outset. They can't match the bench that the Raptors can send out onto the court and if the starters are struggling it is very difficult to know how Philadelphia can extend Toronto.

You have to think the manner of the loss in Game 1 will have focused the 76ers to perform much better this time around, but they are going to need to make some serious adjustments. Defensively they had a hard time dealing with the Raptors who shot over 50% from the field and it is also up to Philadelphia to find a way to get the best out of their own star players.

Joel Embiid is not at 100% and it is clear from Game 1 that he is going to be tested much more than in the First Round Series. Marc Gasol was traded from the Memphis Grizzlies with the assignment to guard the likes of Embiid in mind and Gasol got the better of the battle in Game 1 and it looks to be a key part of this Series.

If Embiid is struggling again and the rest of the starters can't raise their level by a couple of notches it is going to very difficult for the 76ers. Historically it is tough for teams to cover the spread as the host in Game 2 of the Second Round, especially if they are off a big win like the Toronto Raptors, but the latter have covered a similar number in all three home wins over the 76ers this season.

The 76ers dropped to 3-10 against the spread as an underdog of 5 points or larger this season. They have failed to cover in their last five visits to Toronto and the favourite has improved to 21-7 against the spread in the last twenty-eight games between these teams.

Philadelphia have bounced back from double digit losses in recent spots, but Toronto are 6-2 against the spread off a double digit win and I will lay the points with the Raptors for a second time in this Series.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: While most of the NBA PlayOff Second Round Series have already played Game 1 this weekend, the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers had to wait until Monday to get underway. That is down to the fact that the Denver Nuggets needed a Game 7 to see off the San Antonio Spurs and they will be hoping being in rhythm can overcome any potential fatigue against the well rested Trail Blazers who blew out the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games to reach the Second Round.

This really is not a Second Round Series many would have predicted even a few months ago and it is a big opportunity for both Denver and Portland. The Nuggets had the better of the regular season which will give them confidence, especially as Portland look like they are going to struggle to have an answer to Nikola Jokic in Game 1.

It should have been a monumental battle with Jusuf Nurkic coming up for Jokic, but the Portland Center was lost for the season and replacement Enes Kanter is a doubt for Game 1. Regardless of whether he suits up or not, Kanter is not going to be at 100% for Game 1 and I think Jokic can pick up from where he left off.

The Nuggets have also been able to play enough good Defensive basketball which has seen them slow down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. It is almost impossible to think those two players will not get their points, especially with the way Portland have been shooting the ball from the three point arc, but Denver will feel they can make them earn their points inefficiently and that should give them the edge.

Home Court advantage could be very strong for the Nuggets in this Second Round Series and I think they are a team I am happy to lay the points with. The Nuggets are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five at home against the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver are now 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight overall against them.

Portland have not played since last week thanks to an early wrap up of their First Round Series with the Thunder and with Denver's First Round Series being extended to go the distance. However they have played well when on three or more days rest so I am going to give them their respect, but I think the Nuggets have some momentum and being at home can inspire them to a win.

In recent years the host of Game 1 of the Second Round Series have covered more often than not and Denver's match up with Portland looks to be a good one. Barring any lingering fatigue from Saturday's Game 7 win over San Antonio, I think the Nuggets can edge out Portland in Game 1 here and I will lay the points with them.


Tuesday 30th April
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: In Game 1 of this Second Round Series I favoured the two teams to use their Defensive prowess to just get the better of two Offenses that had not played a game of basketball for a few days. It turned out to be a comfortable winner, but I was just as surprised as anyone else out there that the Boston Celtics were able to blow out the Milwaukee Bucks in the way they did on the road.

Game 2 comes from the same venue and you have to expect a real reaction from the Bucks who finished with the Number 1 record in the NBA. They will be looking to make the adjustments to free up Giannis Antetokounmpo who struggled in the opening game of the Series thanks to the stellar work Al Horford was doing at both ends of the court.

Pressure is on Antetokounmpo who needs to get more support from his team-mates who had struggled in Game 1. Players like Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez have huge PlayOff experience to think they are going to be able to bounce back from sub-par efforts in Game 1 and Milwaukee have shown through the course of the season that they don't allow themselves to dwell on losses.

Boston will be looking to get more of the same out of their roster which has entered the PlayOffs believing they have finally all turned to the same page. The returns of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward from injuries that kept them out of the Celtics run to the Eastern Conference Finals twelve months ago were supposed to give Boston a strong regular season, but those players are beginning to rally together and Boston are the only team in the post-season who have won all of their PlayOff games.

Last season these two teams needed all seven games in the First Round Series to separate them and all of those games were won by the home team. Winning on the road will give Boston huge belief, but they would love to secure a second win here before heading home although I think that may be beyond them with the feeling the Bucks have a big bounce back performance in them.

Milwaukee are an incredible 18-4 against the spread off a loss this season and they have covered in their last five following a defeat of double digits. The Celtics are in very good form and they have some strong recent trends overall and in their visits to Milwaukee, but they did suffer a couple of big losses here in the PlayOffs last season and I think the Bucks can cover what is a big number.

The money is heavily slanted to the Celtics on the spread, but I don't mind opposing the public in this one.


Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: Both teams bemoaned some of the refereeing in Game 1 of what is going to be a tense Series between the two best teams in the Western Conference. The Houston Rockets were particularly upset with some of the calls that went against them including James Harden being fouled on what was a game tying three pointer inside the final minutes of Game 1.

The NBA have made it clear it was a blown call and Harden and the Rockets have urged the referees to be 'fairer' to them in Game 2.

In most cases when capping the NBA PlayOffs you would want to think about the kind of adjustments teams are likely going to make between games, but for the first time I think you have to think about the Officials. With all the talk out of Game 1, there is a feeling they may err on the side of caution whenever there is contact and we could see a long Game 2 which has both teams going to the Free Throw line at a much more frequent rate than usual.

That is part of the reason I am expecting more scoring in this one after a relatively low-scoring Game 1 which saw the Houston Rockets lose, but cover. The public are very much behind the Rockets again in Game 2, but I think they are going to have be much stronger at both ends of the court after failing to take advantage of the 20 turnovers Golden State gave up.

Both Klay Thompson and Steph Curry looked fairly healthy after ankle injuries in the Series win over the Los Angeles Clippers and I think they are going to be two players who could find themselves up at the Free Throw line. With James Harden likely to keep attacking and Defenders perhaps also easing off challenging those three point shooters if the referees call some early fouls then it could also be a chance for both teams to have a strong Offensive showing.

The total points line has come down a few points from Game 1 and the 'under' is trending 5-1 in the last six between these teams in Golden State. However the two regular season games here produced at least 230 points in each one and with the extra scrutiny on the foul calls being made in Game 2 I think the teams can surpass the line where it is at the moment.


Wednesday 1st May
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The followers of the old zig-zag theory will be feeling very happy with the way the NBA PlayOffs Second Round Series have begun. All three of the Game 2s played have seen the opposite team cover from Game 1 and that is a major reason I have been put off from backing the Denver Nuggets to win and cover the spread for a second game with the Portland Trail Blazers.

A couple of days ago the Nuggets were deserved winners of Game 1, although the Portland Trail Blazers were not happy with some of the decisions that seemed to be going their way in that one. Now it is up to the visitors to make the adjustments, although I can't really back them with confidence considering their poor recent record in Denver.

The Trail Blazers did not allow a poor record to dictate the way their First Round Series was going to be approached though and that saw them beat the Oklahoma City Thunder comfortably. They will feel they need to play slightly more careful basketball if they are going to steal Home Court from the Denver Nuggets.

Fatiguing the home team might be difficult considering this is a roster used to playing in the altitude of Denver, although the fact they were pushed to Game 7 against the San Antonio Spurs and are playing this game as the third one in a six day period can't be easily set aside.

The Trail Blazers will be looking to be more efficient from three point range while they are looking to cut down on the turnovers that effectively cost them Game 1. It won't be easy, but neither team played a lot of quality Defense in Game 1 and I think Game 2 could follow suit which means backing the 'over' to come through for a second game in a row.

Both teams have recently struggled to pick up the intensity on that side of the court when they are being asked to play on one day rest like they are for this one. Both have strong trends favouring the 'over' in that situation, while that has been the play when Portland have travelled to Denver as seven of the last nine have ended with more points than the layers have anticipated.

The 'over' is also 9-3 in the last twelve games following a Portland loss, while it is 5-2 in the last seven following a Denver win. There is no doubt that it is a very big number and will need some heavy three point shooting and continued porous Defensive work to surpass it, but I will look for that to be the case in Game 2.


Thursday 2nd May
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: We are going to learn a lot about the Toronto Raptors and the Philadelphia 76ers over the next few days as they complete their Game 3 and Game 4 of this Second Round Series. The 76ers managed to tie up the Series by stealing Home Court in Game 2 in Canada, but the Toronto Raptors may feel they have more room for improvement of the two teams.

The Raptors really did not shoot the ball as well as they can in Game 2 and while some of the credit can be given to Philadelphia, the Raptors will be more than aware that their role players just did not perform as they did in Game 1. It was a poor start that left the Raptors chasing their tails throughout Game 2, but I am expecting a positive reaction from the road team.

A huge effort from Jimmy Butler helped the 76ers secure the upset in Game 2 and they are going to need more of the same from the player that was traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves during the season. The problem for Philadelphia is that they can't really rely on Joel Embiid to bail them out with his issues piling up and the Raptors having the kind of players who will thrive when it comes to battling Embiid.

Toronto have to be better when it comes to securing the ball off the glass having been out-rebounded by a wide margin in Game 2. The 76ers look like they will have the better of the boards anyway, but the margin is the key and Toronto have to challenge them better if they are going to recover Home Court.

It does feel this Series is going to be in Toronto's hands having held Philadelphia under 100 points for a second game in a row and I do think they are going to bounce back despite going 1-4 in their last five Game 3s in the NBA PlayOffs.

Toronto are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games following a loss and a road team coming off a Game 2 defeat have been very strong historically in this Round of the PlayOffs. The Raptors are 27-12-2 against the spread in their last forty-one games in Philadelphia and won here in February, while it seems like the public might be moving behind the 76ers despite some of the bigger money coming down on the Raptors.

I want to be with the sharps in this one as I think Toronto are the better team and I believe they have the bigger scope to make the adjustments from Game 2 to Game 3 compared with the Philadelphia 76ers.


Friday 3rd May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: These two teams have split blow out wins over the other already in this Second Round Series and Game 3 is played on Friday evening. Game 4 will have to wait until Monday evening so there is a real chance for one of these teams to make the other have a really good think about what they need to change by taking a 2-1 lead in the Series.

It is a very close Series and I do think it is very difficult to split them in Game 3 with the amount of adjustments we have seen between the two games. I have to admit I am tempted to back the Milwaukee Bucks as the underdog which has been a situation in which they have thrived throughout this season, but this is a very difficult Arena in which to perform.

The Boston Celtics have been a little inconsistent at home this season, so I would be surprised if they win both Game 3 and Game 4, although the PlayOff record under Brad Stevens deserves to see the home team well respected. The Celtics are 16-3 against the spread in nineteen home games that does not involve facing LeBron James and it is enough for me to take a watching brief as far as picking a side is concerned.

There are too many unknowns to determine a side in Game 3 when you think the first two games have changed on the way one or two players have performed. The Celtics certainly have the players who can slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Eric Bledsoe stepped up where he failed in Game 1 and that was a big factor in the Milwaukee win.

Instead of picking a side I am going to back these teams to combine for fewer than the total points line that has been set for Game 3. Game 1 finished with an 'under' and Game 2 barely went 'over' and I do think the two teams have shown enough Defensively to think one of them will fail to score the points to aid the 'over' in this one.

It took some late scoring to make sure Game 2 went 'over' the mark and I am not surprised the layers have adjusted by dropping the number for a third game in a row. However I think they may still not have gone as low as they should have and I am looking at these teams to step up their Defensive play and not see a franchise record number of three pointers like Milwaukee had in Game 2 which was the main reason the mark was surpassed.

To be fair, the 'over' has a strong trend in both Milwaukee and Boston games in recent weeks, while it is also a favourable option when these teams have met one another. However the majority of the numbers on the total points line have been much lower than the one we are seeing in Game 3 and I am going to back the adjustments to have been made Defensively which will mean the selection is going 'under' the total point line.


Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: One of the factors that has to be considered going into Game 3 of this tied Second Round Series is the health of Jamal Murray. He didn't finish Game 2 once it became clear that the Denver Nuggets were going to be dropping it to the Portland Trail Blazers, but he hasn't had a lot of time to recover from the issues picked up when trying to fight through screens.

The Nuggets have to be pretty disappointed with the way they played in Game 2 as they continue to miss open three after open three in the second quarter. Instead of adjusting and making plays towards the basket, which was not being that well guarded by the Trail Blazers, Denver persisted with a shot that wasn't falling and the total 12 points scored in that quarter is the reason they went down to a 7 point defeat.

They were improved in the second half and the Nuggets will be asked to make the adjustments to try and regain Home Court advantage which has been lost in Game 2. For the most part they are playing well, but Denver will know they can't be as poor from the field as they were last time out if they are going to beat this Portland Trail Blazers team.

Portland have to be much happier as Enes Kanter continues to not only fight through the pain, but also the traffic on the court which is leading to plenty of action around the glass. He has been a key figure in the first two games for the Trail Blazers and Portland will need his energy to keep Nikola Jurkic having to work very hard and making sure he is needed to have a big impact at both ends of the court to tire him out.

They have yet to have a really big game from Damian Lillard despite heading back home at 1-1 in this Second Round Series, and Portland will need one if they are going to hold serve twice over this weekend. It is a difficult spot for the Trail Blazers considering how closely matched these two teams are and coming off a win as an underdog and then being favoured by this many points is not easy in these close Series.

Toronto did not cover on Thursday, but historically road teams off a Game 2 loss at home have been very strong when it comes to covering the number. Teams coming off a loss as a favourite and then being set as the underdog also have a strong cover rate in the Second Round Series of the NBA PlayOffs and both of those trends favour the Denver Nuggets.

You can't ignore the fact that Denver have not been as strong on the road as they have been at home, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven visits to Portland. The Nuggets also have a very strong 8-4 record against the spread when looking for revenge against an opponent who beat them as the underdog.

With Portland going 6-6-1 against the spread in their last thirteen as the home favourite I am going to take the points on offer here and that despite the concerns about the availability of Jamal Murray.


Saturday 4th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 3 Pick: This was supposed to be the Series that the Houston Rockets had been preparing for in anticipation of revenge for what happened twelve months ago. Instead they find themselves 2-0 down in the Second Round Series to defending Champions Golden State Warriors, although the mindset has to be that the Warriors have only been holding serve by winning two games at home.

The key for the Rockets is to find an answer to Kevin Durant who is showing the entire world why he is the best basketball player on the planet. It is quite a remarkable showing from someone who is rumoured to be taking his player option to end his contract with the Warriors in the next few weeks and possibly heading to new pastures.

Kevin Durant himself has refused to get involved in the speculation and is doing his best to put that to the back-burner with the kind of performances he is producing on the court. The Rockets have to find a way to slow him down, but they will also be hoping James Harden is able to recover from having his eyes raked in Game 2 which he admitted affected his vision.

I would expect Harden to play knowing the Series is almost certainly on the line in the next couple of days with Houston needing to win both games at home to have a chance of upsetting the defending Champions. The Warriors also have a couple of injury concerns with the most notable one being Steph Curry who hurt his fingers in Game 2, but again finished that one and is expected to suit up in Game 3.

The Warriors have been favoured in the first two games in the Series, although they are 1-1 against the spread despite winning both straight up. This time the Series has shifted favouritism to the Houston Rockets and I do think that is a difficult spot for them to be in.

One favoured trend of recent times of backing a team that is 0-2 down in a Series to cover the spread in the first half of a Game 3 is no longer a big option in my opinion. At one time you could get some deflated spreads on the Half Time Spread from the layers, but that has been worked out by the oddsmakers after a strong run of wins from those teams and so Houston are favoured to cover by the same number at half time as they are at the conclusion of this game.

It still may be the best avenue to approach if you want to back the Rockets who have to come out desperate to get back into this Series, but I also think the Warriors are looking to make a statement. In the Second Round of the NBA PlayOffs it has not been a winning play to oppose a Number 1 Seed as an underdog and that was the case again in Game 3 of the Boston-Milwaukee Series on Friday.

Golden State will be looking to keep that trend going as they are picking up quite a few points in this one in what feels like being another close game. Teams being given less than five points as the underdog and the Number 1 Seed have a very strong covering record in the Second Round of the PlayOffs and that is also a trend that was continued by the Bucks on Friday evening.

The road team is 4-1 against the spread in games between the Rockets and Warriors and it is Golden State who have tended to perform better with the kind of rest we are getting between Game 2 and Game 3.

You can't discount the Houston Rockets finding a way to get things done by a clear margin with their ability shooting the three pointer, but Golden State look in the mood to make a statement. I will take the points with the road underdog in Game 3 of this Series.


Sunday 5th May
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Pick: The last two games have seen the Philadelphia 76ers take control of this Second Round Series and they could move to the hill by holding serve at home for a second time. Game 3 saw the Toronto Raptors go cold at the wrong time at the beginning of the fourth quarter in a tight game and that allowed the 76ers to pull clear and comfortably see off their visitors.

There are some problems for the Toronto Raptors to address with news that Pascal Siakam looks set to miss Game 4 and it is a big loss to lose someone who has scored at least 20 points in the first three games of this Series. It puts more pressure on Kyle Lowry to find a way to get out of his slump and offer some support to Kahwi Leonard who has been a one man wrecking ball for the Raptors.

Ultimately Toronto are not going to win this game with only Leonard contributing which has been the case in the last couple of games. Over the course of the regular season the Raptors depth has been very important for them, but the absence of Siakam will hurt their production and they are going to need to dig very deep if they are not going to be on the brink of yet another early NBA PlayOff exit in the coming days.

Philadelphia have fewer adjustments to make as they managed to pull away and crack 100 points for the first time in the Series in Game 3. The starting five are very important for the 76ers so it was good to see them all scoring in double figures, while the 76ers also broke down the Toronto Defensive unit which had performed well in the first two games north of the border.

Joel Embiid is the face of the franchise, but it is the play of Jimmy Butler which is sparking Philadelphia and it is up to the Raptors to find a way to get their feet back under them. Slowing down the 76ers won't be easy, but Toronto fans have to believe their team is still very much alive in the Series having been very close in Game 3 before finding their shooters going cold at the beginning of the fourth quarter which was the turning point of the game.

Toronto do have a favourable trend of being in the position of underdog in Game 4 off a loss as favourite in Game 3. Teams in that spot have a very good covering rate in the NBA PlayOffs Second Round while the Raptors are also 17-4-1 against the spread in their last twenty-two visits to the 76ers when they are not being favoured by 4 points or more.

The 76ers are also going to have to find a different sort of motivation- it would have been easy to come out fired up in Game 3 after being set as the home underdog, but the 76ers are only 4-11 against the spread as the favourite of less than 4 points this season.

We have also seen the Raptors cover in their last five games coming off a straight up loss of double digits, while Philadelphia are 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen following a double digit win. I have to respect the way the 76ers have performed in the last couple of games to move 2-1 ahead in this Series, but I think the Toronto Raptors can rally together and I will take the points in this one.


Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 4 Pick: The first NBA PlayOff game since 1953 that needed FOUR Overtimes to decide the winner is in the books and there is not a lot of time for the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers to rest between Game 3 and Game 4.

I don't imagine a lot of work was done on the court on Saturday after the late Friday finish and the early afternoon Sunday start in Portland. Both Head Coaches will know they need to extract another big effort from their wounded teams without rest and it is a big moment in this Second Round Series with the Portland Trail Blazers trying to take a 3-1 lead in the Series having won the last two games.

Rodney Hood was the hero for the Trail Blazers, but there were many players out there deserving praise on Friday. Now it is a big task for Michael Malone to extract something from his Nuggets players having been on the wrong side of the defeat and with the Portland Trail Blazers looking slightly healthier even if Enes Kanter is somehow battling through his own personal pain.

Both teams have admitted there are going to be some tired bodies going out onto the court on Sunday and it does make it a much harder game to predict. You have to imagine it is going to have an impact on the Defensive effort the teams are able to put together, but that might be an issue for the Denver Nuggets with the Trail Blazers players finding some rhythm shooting the ball.

It could also be tough to play the fast tempo that both teams like and I would not be surprised to see this game hit the 'under', although my preference is to pick the Portland Trail Blazers to make it 3-1 in the Series. I backed the Denver Nuggets to cover in Game 3, but they are off back to back straight up losses now and road teams have suffered in the Second Round of the NBA PlayOffs in that spot down the years.

Out of the two teams it is Portland who have the stronger record against the spread when playing with just one days rest and I think that could play a part in this one too considering the way Game 3 ended. The Trail Blazers are also 16-7 against the spread as a favourite of less than 4 points this season and I think they might have the energy of the crowd behind them which can help prop up the flagging players in this game.

Laying the points with the home team looks to be the play in Game 4 having also played through the First Round in five games compared with the seven Denver needed to get through. That may also add to the potential fatigue in play and I think Portland can move into a commanding position in this Second Round Series.

MY PICKS: 27/04 Toronto Raptors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
28/04 Milwaukee-Boston Under 223.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
28/04 Houston Rockets + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
29/04 Toronto Raptors - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
29/04 Denver Nuggets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
30/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
30/04 Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets Over 220.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
01/05 Denver Nuggets-Portland Trail Blazers Over 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
02/05 Toronto Raptors - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/05 Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Under 219 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
03/05 Denver Nuggets + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
04/05 Golden State Warriors + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/05 Toronto Raptors + 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
05/05 Portland Trail Blazers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Second Round Update: 7-5, + 1.37 Units (12 Units Staked, + 14.16% Yield)

First Round PlayOff Final: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)