Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 14th February)

Thursday proved to be a really frustrating day- there were times within each of the three Picks made where it felt the momentum was going to turn back in our favour, but ultimately all three dropped into the losing column.

Those results have erased the positive start to the week, but the weekend can still turn things back around beginning with a busy Friday filled with Quarter Final matches on the ATP Tour and the two Semi Final matches to be played in Doha.

Both of those Semi Final matches look competitive on paper and hard to call and so have not fit the selection policy for the pages, but any selections from the ATP events will be placed in this thread.

The events in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires will have markets set later so will be added, if any selections are to be made, but the focus for now will be on the Marseille Quarter Finals.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Some controversy was attached to Zizou Bergs' win at the Davis Cup, but he has built up some momentum and this tournament in Marseille represents a good chance to earn important World Ranking points.

Winning the tournament will be anything but easy, although Zizou Bergs has put a couple of solid wins on the board and that will have given the World Number 62 plenty of confidence.

After coming through Qualifying, Zizou Bergs reached the Final in the tournament in Auckland in the build up to the Australian Open and the two wins in Marseille will mean that the Belgian is set for a new career high World Ranking mark early next week.

He is serving very well in his two wins that have been put on the board and that has allowed Zizou Bergs to play aggressively on the return and mentally break down opponents.

Next up is World Number 52 Zhizhen Zhang who is trending back towards the career high Ranking that was set in July last year. An upset of Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round is a huge boost for Zhizhen Zhang, but backing that up will not be easy and not on a surface on which Zhang has had struggles to find his consistency.

Much like his opponent, Zhizhen Zhang has served well so far this week and his 4-5 record on the hard courts is partly down to the difficult draws he has faced. Four of those defeats have been against opponents Ranked Number 13 or higher, while the exception is a loss to Denis Shapovalov, who has shown signs of getting back to his best tennis.

This has to be encouraging for Zhizhen Zhang, but Zizou Bergs has had a considerable edge when it comes to the return of serve.

Over the last twelve months, Zhang has an 8-8 record on the hard courts when facing opponents Ranked lower than himself and he has only broken in 17% of return games played.

When these players met in Shanghai towards the end of last season, Zizou Bergs was able to play the key points much more efficiently compared with Zhizhen Zhang. He will need to do the same here, but has shown a bit more than the World Number 52 on the return of serve and that can just see Bergs push through to another Semi Final on the Tour in 2025.

Thiago Seyboth Wild v Laslo Djere: At his best he was a comfortable top 50 Ranked player, but it has been a difficult year for Laslo Djere and the World Ranking has plummeted.

He has begun this week outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings and that meant having to Qualify for the tournament in Buenos Aires, but you have to consider the confidence boost the Serb will have given himself by putting four wins together.

The first three were comfortable, but Laslo Djere needed a final set tie-breaker to get the better of Alejandro Tabilo in the Second Round and set up this Quarter Final match.

There is nothing wrong with the numbers being produced by Laslo Djere and he has been a solid clay court competitor in his career so the surface is not going to be one that is concerning him at all. Facing a Brazilian in this Quarter Final should mean any support from the stands is very going to be heading to his side of the net and Djere will be tough to beat if he continues to back up his serve as he has all week.

With that in mind it is perhaps not a surprise that the Serb is the favourite in this Quarter Final, especially as he is facing an opponent who has also been trending in the wrong direction as far as the World Ranking goes over the last nine months.

Confidence will not have been helped by opening 2025 with three straight losses, but the Golden Swing through South America should be an opportunity for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just begin to turn things around.

He has two wins over home favourites already this week, so dealing with the crowd on Friday is not expected to be a massive problem, and one of the wins has eliminated a Seeded player from the tournament.

Like Laslo Djere, Thiago Seyboth Wild has found a way to protect his serve on a surface where it is that much more difficult to do, while he has also played the key points slightly more effectively than the Serb on the return.

This could be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final, as will the fact that Thiago Seyboth Wild managed to beat Laslo Djere twice on the clay courts in 2024.

Previously he had lost all three matches against Djere, but was dominant behind serve and then able to get into the return games in those two wins. Both have been played since July 2024 and that mental edge could make the difference in what is expected to be a competitive, and closely fought out battle for a place in the last four and the chance to earn some vital Ranking points ahead of bigger tournaments to come.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Thiago Seyboth Wild @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.43 Units (6 Units Staked, - 7.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 10th February)

Another week on the Tour is coming to an end with the six tournaments being played all crowning Champions at the end of the weekend.

The Tour is making its way through the Middle East with a number of stops and that does mean some of the tournaments of next week are beginning on Sunday. The WTA Doha event is the first 1000 event on that Tour, while the ATP Tour has an event in Rotterdam which is the first 500 event of the season, although that will begin on Monday.

What it does mean is that some of the top players on the Tour should be in action and that is underlined in Doha where eighteen of the top 20 WTA players are scheduled to play.

Only Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula are going to miss out, but it is a deep tournament beginning on Sunday.

The hope is that there will be a decent foundation on which to build this month when the tournaments of this week come to a conclusion.

It has been a mixed week for the Tennis Picks through to this point, but the hope is a decent end can be produced to end with a positive number as we look to begin the slow ascent out of the Australian Open hole.

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: The long Second Round match did not have any impact on Beatriz Haddad Maia in her Quarter Final win over Ons Jabeur.

She was helped by an out of sorts opponent, but Beatriz Haddad Maia will be heading into this Semi Final with plenty of confidence.

A match against Daria Kasatkina will always be challenging considering the amount of balls that the World Number 14 will get back into play. However, it has been an extremely mixed start to the season for Kasatkina, even if her best win and performance was in the Quarter Final on Friday when she crushed Sorana Cirstea for the loss of just two games.

Daria Kasatkina has to expect a lot more resistance in this match and she has lost both previous matches against Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Both were on the hard courts in 2023 and all four sets were won by the Brazilian, which will give Haddad Maia a considerable mental edge.

This should be close, but you have to give Beatriz Haddad Maia the edge with her power and serve likely to be key on the faster surfaces.

Daria Kasatkina will have to serve well to keep herself from being put under pressure, but too many second serves will end up being attacked and Beatriz Haddad Maia should have enough to reach the Final in Abu Dhabi.

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The disappointing defeat at the Australian Open is the only negative on the Grigor Dimitrov resume in the early part of the 2024 season.

He has won a hard court title and Grigor Dimitrov will feel he should have won his match at the Australian Open when going down to Nuno Borges in an upset.

We have not seen Dimitrov since that defeat, but he has returned in Marseille and has won two matches in strong fashion which will give him confidence. He will know that he needs to serve well to win this Semi Final against Karen Khachanov, especially if the World Number 18 continues to serve as well as he has been in his own two victories at this event.

Both players will feel there is an area of improvement that can be made when it comes to the return of serve, but Dimitrov has the edge in that department.

Wins in all three previous professional matches against Karen Khachanov will certainly help Grigor Dimitrov believe he has the tennis to win this Semi Final. The last of those wins was in Shanghai and Grigor Dimitrov has won six of the seven sets played against the Russian.

In those previous matches, Grigor Dimitrov has a massive edge on the service numbers and he can get the better of Karen Khachanov in this good looking Semi Final in Marseille.

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Harriet Dart: After coming through the Qualifiers and making a run into the Semi Final in Cluj, Harriet Dart will be back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings when the new list is released on Monday.

This is a positive for a player who has not really pushed on as far as she would have liked, although earning a spot in the Final will be a big challenge for Harriet Dart.

She has taken advantage of what has been a kind draw and only one of the wins has been earned against someone Ranked inside the top 100. That win was against someone Ranked higher than Karolina Pliskova right now, although the Czech player may feel she is on the road back to a more natural place in the World Rankings.

Winning the tournament would see Karolina Pliskova head back towards the top 50 of the World Rankings as injury and a loss of form has seen the World Ranking slump.

Karolina Pliskova has dominated her last two opponents after a tougher than expected First Round win and the confidence has to have grown.

The serve has always been a big weapon for Pliskova and it looks to be working this week, which will give her a chance to contain the threat Harriet Dart brings to the court.

It has been the key difference in their previous two meetings on the Tour, including last year in the Middle East, and the expectation is that Karolina Pliskova will be able to show the tennis that took her to World Number 1 in getting past her British opponent.

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games v Luciano Darderi: These two players met in the Second Round in Cordoba twelve months ago and both players have improved their World Rankings since that match.

Sebastian Baez is still Ranked considerably higher than Luciano Darderi as they prepare to face off for a spot in the Final, but the home favourite will have plenty of respect for a Qualifier who has won a lot of matches to get to this stage of the tournament.

Being the defending Champion and having won two matches here will show that Sebastian Baez is very comfortable in his surroundings.

However, he will have to respect Luciano Darderi who has beaten consecutive top 60 Ranked opponents without dropping a set. Both Sebastian Ofner and Yannick Hanfmann are not Ranked as high as Baez, but they are solid wins for the 21 year old Italian who is edging closer to a first appearance in the top 100 of the World Rankings.

Like many from his home nation, Darderi is a comfortable clay court player and he has been playing at a really high level this week. It makes him dangerous, but Sebastian Baez is no slouch on the red dirt and he was a straight-forward winner when these two players met last year.

This match should be closer, but Sebastian Baez can still earn a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-6, - 0.76 Units (26 Units Staked, - 2.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 8th February)

A mixed bag of results on Wednesday were a touch frustrating considering the amount of opportunities that were missed by the final selection of the day.

It is something that has been common in 2024, but the Picks have largely performed better this week and the Thursday selections will come from the WTA Abu Dhabi and ATP Marseille events being played.

Hopefully another winning day can be produced and this week can be the positive start of the recovery period that I have been looking for after the truly rough Australian Open.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Danielle Collins: Priorities certainly can change for all athletes, but especially female athletes that wish to start a family.

That is the situation for Danielle Collins even if some have suspected the frustrating injuries that have seen her World Ranking drop from Number 7 in July 2022 to her current Number 71 spot.

This is going to be the final year on the Tour and Collins has already shown that she wants to go out with some serious memories left on the court. After pushing Iga Swiatek all the way, and perhaps even blowing the chance to beat the top Seed in the Australian Open, the American crushed Naomi Osaka in the First Round in Abu Dhabi and that gives her a real edge in terms of knowing what to expect when Collins heads out onto the court.

She is facing Elena Rybakina who had a disappointing Second Round exit in Melbourne when going down 22-20 in an epic Tie-Breaker.

A title has already been won by Rybakina on the hard courts this season and she will be looking to bounce back when heading to the Middle East for the big tournaments before Indian Wells and Miami. Elena Rybakina knows she needs to string the wins together now before the clay court portion of the season and her big game will be tough for Danielle Collins to contain.

That was the case in the two hard court matches played between Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins in 2023 and the former had a massive edge when it comes to the serving numbers.

You can never tell how a player is feeling after having almost three weeks off from the Tour and playing a first match in an event, but Rybakina could have too much power for Danielle Collins as long as she serves well.

An aggressive return game will keep Collins under pressure too and the World Number 5 can put a big win on the board.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: It has been a difficult twelve months for Felix Auger-Aliassime and he can be a tough player to trust to cover spreads with his relatively poor return performances.

He looked good in his first match in Marseille and Auger-Aliassime is likely going to receive plenty of support.

Serving well will always give him a chance to put some scoreboard pressure on opponents and he is facing some with a lot less experience in Zhizhen Zhang.

The three tournament losses suffered by Zhizhen Zhang this season have all been against top 20 Ranked opponents- Felix Auger-Aliassime is not amongst those numbers right now in his career, but he is capable of that level and Zhang may struggle to stick with this opponent if the Canadian can find his best.

In the matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhizhen Zhang has really struggled to have an impact on the return and that is expected to be the case here.

And while the Felix Auger-Aliassime return is not always the most impressive part of his tennis, he has broken in 24% of return games played this season. This is a small sample and maintaining that level will be the challenge for Auger-Aliassime, but he can impose his tennis on this match and earn a solid win.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.66 Units (14 Units Staked, + 4.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 7th February)

There may be a number of tournaments being played, but the idea over the coming weeks is to try and narrow the focus when it comes to the Tennis Picks after the disappointing Australian Open.

Both selections from Marseille should have returned winners when Denis Shapovalov found the first break in the final set having won the second set 6-1, but the Canadian collapsed badly from that stage and only managed to win two more points in losing four games in a row to blow the match.

It will be a tough road back for Shapovalov after injury, but you could sense the disappointment of losing the match in the manner he did.

The same can be said for Andy Murray who continues to underperform in 2024 and with more and more people questioning whether he should think about calling time on his career.

I tend to agree with Murray that the choice should be down to him and him alone, although the talk of moving down to the Challenger Tour in order to rebuild confidence may be the best approach to take. Losses on the ATP Tour have destroyed some of the confidence, even if Andy Murray is still playing well in practice, and he just needs to put some wins together to restore some of the lost belief.

Tomas Machac - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There has been a continuous flow of quality WTA Tour players coming out of the Czech Republic, but the nation is still looking for someone to take over from Tomas Berdcyh on the ATP Tour.

Another Tomas may be the best player to back to do that and it was Machac who got the better of Andy Murray in the First Round.

He has played well on the hard courts for much of the opening six weeks of the season, and the youngster looks to be an improving force on the Tour.

The Second Round pits him against one of the higher Seeds in the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti has been struggling to really find consistent form on this surface over the last twelve months, but he has earned a solid win to open his time in Marseille. The difference between the two players looks to be their ability behind serve and Tomas Machac should be able to keep the pressure on the Italian in this match.

As a clay court specialist, Musetti will believe he can win the longer rallies- the feeling is that the Tomas Machac can play enough first strike tennis on this indoor court to come through though and he can pay out as the favourite.

Federico Coria - 1.5 games v Albert Ramos: These two players are very much all about playing on the clay courts as much as possible at this stage of their careers.

Both did make the trip to Melbourne to pick up a paycheque for losing in the First Round at the Australian Open, but Albert Ramos and Federico Coria have been playing clay court tennis before and afterwards.

While the Rankings remain high to take part in Grand Slam events, you would expect Ramos and Coria to travel where they need to, but the reality is that the majority of their matches will be played on this surface.

Both have enjoyed a lot of success in Cordoba in recent years at the start of the South American Golden Swing- Albert Ramos is a former Champion and has had a number of deep runs, while Federico Coria was the Runner Up here twelve months ago.

They actually faced off in the Semi Final in 2023 in Cordoba and Federico Coria dominated the match, even if the scoreboard shows a very competitive scoreline. He had 20 Break Points compared with just 8 for Albert Ramos and over the last twelve months the Coria return has been the more effective of the two players.

Albert Ramos can still cause problems with the lefty serve and that will give him a chance in this match, but Federico Coria has a very good career record against southpaws Ranked outside the top 50 and he can frank the win from last season.

Both players have had confident three set wins in the First Round and this should be plenty competitive with breaks all over the show, but Federico Coria can just use the home crowd to edge this one in his favour.

Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: The South American Golden Swing will always bring together a number of players that are used to playing clay court tennis through much of the season.

Players like Facundo Bagnis are all about trying to build their World Ranking and earn a place at Roland Garros in May, although his best hopes may be through the Qualifiers this year.

He has had to do that to take his place in the main draw in Cordoba and Bagnis will not be lacking for confidence having won three matches in this tournament already. That has backed up winning a title on the Challenger circuit on the red dirt, but this is a considerable step up from the kind of opponents Facundo Bagnis has been beating.

The home crowd will be behind him, but Roberto Carballas Baena is very comfortable on the clay courts and the World Number 65 is the first player inside the top 100 of the World Rankings that Bagnis has faced since July.

Roberto Carballas Baena had a tougher than expected win in the First Round and had to spend a considerable amount of time on the court. Coming from a set down and having to spend almost three hours on the court on Tuesday is not ideal preparation for this match on Wednesday, but the Spaniard should be used to the relative lack of recovery time.

And the fact he pushed through to win in three sets might have just got Carballas Baena adjusted to the red dirt as he looks to beat Facundo Bagnis for a fourth time in a row.

They have not played one another since July 2021 when it was Bagnis who would have been higher Ranked, but Roberto Carballas Baena is still playing at a decent level more consistently. He has edges in the return department which could show up in this Second Round match and the favourite can be backed.

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 games v Jaume Munar: It has been a difficult few months for Francisco Cerundolo as he has lost form and confidence on the Tour. The World Number 22 has played a couple of matches on the clay courts for Argentina in the Davis Cup, but split those 1-1 and Cerundolo may be hoping the Golden Swing through his home country and neighbouring South American nations can help him restore some of the shattered belief.

He was given a Bye through to the Second Round in Cordoba as the top Seed in the draw, but Cerundolo will know that he will need to be at his best immediately if he is going to prolong his time in the tournament.

First up is Jaume Munar, a Spaniard who is very comfortable on the clay courts and who gave Francisco Cerundolo a scare at the French Open last year.

Ultimately the Argentinian was able to come through in four sets, but Munar may feel he was the better player in the two middle sets and the third set Tie-Breaker swung the match in the favour of the higher Ranked player.

Jaume Munar has earned a very solid First Round win and this is a player who can be a very effective return player on the clay courts. This is going to be a challenge for Francisco Cerundolo, who has just been lacking when it comes to consistency on the serving side of his tennis, although the top Seed should be able to put pressure on the Munar serve.

Francisco Cerundolo has been far from the most convincing player when it comes to facing those players he is expected to beat, but the 3-0 head to head over Jaume Munar will help. He crushed him in Argentina's Capital last season, although there is little doubt this one will be much more competitive.

Even with that in mind, Cerundolo should be able to play with enough quality to get the better of the Jaume Munar serve and lead to a win in front of the home fans.

MY PICKS: Tomas Machac - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.16 Units (6 Units Staked, + 19.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 6th February)

It has been a really poor start to the season for the Tennis Picks and that means there is a lot of work to do in order to turn things around.

However, it is a marathon not a sprint and it would be a big mistake to chase from the off.

Instead the plan is to rebuild slowly and that means putting strong weeks together as the Tours move into big tournaments in the Middle East before the two hard court Masters events played in North America.

That also means there will not be selections every day as I tighten the approach a little bit after a frustrating time at the Australian Open.

The first Grand Slam of 2024 was a good one as far as entertainment goes and the two Champions, Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka, will both feel they can add to the big titles won.

They will know there are a number of contenders that will be keen to bounce back and it looks like a good season is in store for all of the fans around the world.

It is the hard court events that continue to be the main focus for the players, but the Golden Swing in South America is another strong part of the Tour schedule.

We have some big Ranking points on offer over the next month before both the ATP and WTA Tours combine to play at Indian Wells and Miami and the focus for these pages is getting the season moving in a positive direction.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 games v Gregoire Barrere: An early exit in Montpellier has continued the poor start to the season made by Gregoire Barrere.

His two wins this season have been against the then World Number 256 and 214 and the confidence has to be a little dented after the defeats around those victories.

The home crowd will be behind him and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is returning to the Tour for the first time since his surprising defeat in the Second Round at the Australian Open. The Spaniard is going to have to deal with the emotion of facing a home player, while the serve is not as strong as it should be on the faster surfaces.

However, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did earn a good looking win over Hubert Hurkacz in the build up to the Australian Open and that is the best win either of these players have produced.

Gregoire Barrere has had some successes on the hard courts, while he did produce some solid indoor hard court tennis at this time of the season twelve months ago. He did not put together that kind of level in Montpellier last week, but in 2023 Gregoire Barrere had played well there, in Rotterdam and here in Marseille.

On his best day, Barrere has a decent enough serve, but his return game is not as effective as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's. This could be the difference in this First Round match and the higher Ranked player can find a way to move past the home player.

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Hugo Gaston: Injury and a loss of form has contributed to Denis Shapovalov slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but he can frank his win over Hugo Gaston from last week by beating the same opponent again.

It has been a difficult opening month on the ATP Tour for Denis Shapovalov who has lost three of the four matches played.

The one exception was his win over Hugo Gaston when the lefty dropped just four games as he dominated the Frenchman in all aspects of the match.

Two wins in the Qualifying Rounds will have given Hugo Gaston a boost in confidence, although he will have noted the gap in level that will need to be bridged if he is going to turn the result around.

Hugo Gaston does not have the most productive serve and that does tend to put a lot of pressure on his return game. Over the last twelve months, Gaston has only held 73% of his service games played on the hard courts, and he was broken four times by Denis Shapovalov last week.

While Hugo Gaston has been able to return well enough to make up for the inefficient serve, it was very difficult for him to push Shapovalov last week. Having that experience will certainly help Gaston to prepare for this First Round match, but Denis Shapovalov showed enough in Montpellier to believe he may be approaching some of his best form and he can get the better of this opponent again.

Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 games v Juan Pablo Varillas: The South American Golden Swing is seen as a very good chance for the clay court specialists to really get their 2024 season underway after the hard court tennis played over the last month.

Both Yannick Hanfmann and Juan Pablo Varillas are very comfortable on the surface and both will arrive in Cordoba hoping for a better run than 2023.

Early exits were the order of the day for Hanfmann and Varillas last year and this is the first clay court match of the season for either.

There is very little doubting the qualities of both of these players when it comes to the tennis on the red dirt, but it was Yannick Hanfmann who showed a bit more last season. Neither enjoyed much positive form in the opening month of the season, but the slightly superior return performances produced by Hanfmann on the clay courts over the last twelve months should help him come through.

He has also won all three previous matches against Varillas and all three wins have been on the clay courts.

Yannick Hanfmann's win last year in Madrid was the toughest of the three victories over this opponent, but he still holds the mental edge.

The German has been the stronger player in the return part of any match against Juan Pablo Varillas and Yannick Hanfmann can find a way to earn the breaks of serve to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 18th)

This has been a difficult week and some of the frustration was felt when Marton Fucsovics was not able to take his chances in the third set in his eventual defeat to Nikoloz Basilashvili.

At least Karen Khachanov prevented it being a really bad day, but this has not been a fun week as the inches have largely been against the selections.

Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: After winning the French Open there would have been quite a few people out there that were looking forward to seeing how Jelena Ostapenko could kick on with her career. It was a surprising win back in 2017 when the Latvian upset Simona Halep in the Final of Roland Garros and almost a year later Jelena Ostapenko reached a career high World Ranking.

However, the last few seasons have been much tougher for Ostapenko who plays a high risk game, although there have been signs she could be returning to her best.

Jelena Ostapenko has made a positive start to 2022 and there will be a feeling that she can use the momentum of her early season form to carry her forward. The clay court season will soon begin, and that is when Ostapenko may feel her best tennis can be produced, while a couple more big tournaments are to come on the hard courts next month for the Semi Finalist in Dubai.

The Latvian has played well in this tournament, although she has been involved in a couple of tight, physical matches that have lasted around two and a half hours on the court each time. There hasn't been much in her matches and Jelena Ostapenko could have easily been beaten in her last couple of matches, and now she has to take on arguably the player of the tournament.

Simona Halep has benefited from a good draw to reach another Semi Final, but she has been producing some very strong numbers and she has spent a lot less time on the court than her opponent in this Semi Final. The serve will be tested by an aggressive Jelena Ostapenko return, but Halep has had an edge on this side of her tennis and I think that will put her in a good position to beat someone who could be feeling the effects of playing as much tennis as she has needed to in order to move through the draw.

Both players will feel the return of serve is going to be key for them, but I think there has been more consistency in the Simona Halep first serve which can give her the edge.

The Romanian has also been able to protect the second serve with a bit more belief in her own game and I think that will lead to a good win for the former World Number 1.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 16th)

It has not been a very good week for the Tennis Picks at all, but I have also been on the wrong end of some poor fortune.

Ultimately I have to hold my hands up and say it has not been good enough, but Wednesday offers a chance to turn things around.

Any selections from Delray Beach or Rio will be added to this post.

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Jill Teichmann: It says plenty about the quality of the field at any tournament that someone Ranked at Number 35 has to come through the Qualifiers to take part in the main draw. That is the case for Jill Teichmann, although she benefited as one of the Lucky Losers from the final Qualifying Round to earn her spot in the draw in Dubai.

The Swiss player has taken full advantage of that by beating Elise Mertens in the First Round, but Jill Teichmann is going to have to win more big matches if she is going to have a deep run here. Performances in 2022 has shown that Jill Teichmann is not intimidated by facing the better players on the Tour, although she has not been able to find the consistency she has needed to win those matches.

In saying that, the hard court numbers before this event in Dubai have been less than impressive as Jill Teichmann has found her second serve and her return game put under some pressure. The second serve could be a problem in this match, but I think the left hander should have a bit more success on the return against what has been a vulnerable Elina Svitolina serve, although perhaps not enough success for Teichmann to be able to earn the upset.

Elina Svitolina may have missed her window to win a Grand Slam, and she has slipped outside the top 10 of the World Rankings after a disappointing Australian summer. Like Jill Teichmann, Elina Svitolina played well in her First Round match here and was relatively comfortable in progressing through to the Second Round, while her overall hard court numbers in 2022 have been slightly more convincing than her opponents.

Both previous matches between these players have come on the clay courts, but in both Elina Svitolina has battered the Jill Teichmann second serve. The matches have been split 1-1, but the Ukrainian player has looked the better player in both and I do think the hard courts suit her game a little more than for Teichmann.

The first serve should be important to both players, but Elina Svitolina has shown a little more ability to protect the second serve and has the superior returning numbers. While I expect Jill Teichmann to have her moments throughout this match, Elina Svitolina can do enough to win and cover this mark.

Simona Halep - 6.5 games v Elena Ruse: I still think there is a Grand Slam or two that Simona Halep can win before she calls time on her career, but the 30 year old has the first ambition of trying to make her way back up the World Rankings. She has started 2022 on fire and Simona Halep was a comfortable winner over Alison Riske in the First Round to continue what has been a largely dominant run to open the season.

A couple of disappointing setbacks will have concerned Simona Halep, but her tennis should be well suited to the quick conditions most players face in Dubai. Her serve was working particularly well in the win over Alison Riske and it could have come by a much wider score on the board if Halep had taken all of the chances she had created.

There might be something of an inferiority complex on the court for this Second Round match too and that can be understandable as Elena Ruse takes on a compatriot at a relatively early stage of her own career. Elena Ruse would likely have looked up to Simona Halep and she has only recently hit her career best World Ranking of Number 59, which is someway below the level that Halep operates at.

Mentally it will be a challenge for Ruse, but she has come through the Qualifiers and earned a win over Paula Badosa in the First Round. It has to give the younger Romanian plenty of confidence having never beaten a top 20 Ranked opponent before, while Elena Ruse has struggled in most aspects of her tennis when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

The 24 year old may be improving, but she has struggled in her two matches against Simona Halep which have been played over the last four months. Both were on hard courts and Simona Halep lost a total of six games across four sets these two have competed in, something that may underline the point I made about there being a mental obstacle for the younger player to overcome.

Elena Ruse has struggled with her serve and barely been able to get into the Simona Halep service games in those losses and I think that may be the same in Dubai. The quicker conditions could give Ruse a chance to put more pressure on Halep, but any rally will likely end in advantage to the former World Number 1 and I will look for Simona Halep to win by a good margin against her compatriot yet again.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 15th)

There are plenty of matches set to be played on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches at the five tournaments are scheduled to go onto the courts around the world.

I will be looking to add any selections from Rio and Delray Beach to this thread, but for now I have selections from Doha, Dubai and Marseille which can be read below.

Corentin Moutet - 3.5 games v Hugo Gaston: The primetime evening session at the ATP Marseille tournament features French players on Tuesday, but the second match may be of more interest from a picks point of view.

That is the match featuring two of the younger ATP players from France after Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Gilles Simon have met prior to this First Round encounter. In this one Hugo Gaston and Corentin Moutet are facing one another and the poor form of the former has got to be a worry when they meet in Marseille.

Hugo Gaston has only won once in 2022, while the numbers have been really worrying. The left hander has only held 62% of the service games played on the hard courts so far in 2022 and that has placed a big burden on the returning aspect, something that has ultimately broken down the Hugo Gaston game.

He is not a bad return player though and that should give Hugo Gaston some chances to get into the Corentin Moutet serve considering the lower Ranked, but older, Frenchman can sometimes have issues holding on his serve. In 2022 it has been a different story for Corentin Moutet though who has held 84% of the service games played on the hard courts and that is where I think the difference will be made in this match.

Like his opponent, Corentin Moutet has actually returned pretty well, but his serve has been better protected than Hugo Gaston's and I think that will show up to separate the two players on the day. Corentin Moutet has the slightly superior return numbers too and I am going to look for him to produce the better tennis in this match which eventually sees him wear down and beat Hugo Gaston.

In matches between compatriots, there can be a pecking order when it comes to how players deal with one another on the court and I think the older Corentin Moutet will have an edge over Hugo Gaston overall. The latter may start turning his form around, but I think he will have to wait at least one more week to do that and Corentin Moutet can find the breaks of serve to win this one and cover the spread.

Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 games v Elias Ymer: There is a bright future ahead of Lorenzo Musetti, but the young Italian has yet to find the consistency he would like on the Tour. Plenty of new faces are beginning to make a real impact on the Tour led by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, but Lorenzo Musetti will feel he has the tennis to challenge those players for the big titles in the years ahead.

A poor Australian summer would have hurt, but Lorenzo Musetti has reached the Quarter Final at the last two tournaments he has played. Some may feel it is a little surprising that the Italian has not decided to play in the events in South America rather than the indoor hard courts, but it may be a learning experience for a player that has been a little inconsistent on this surface.

The returning side of his game has been letting Lorenzo Musetti down, but he may have more joy against Elias Ymer who enters this tournament as a Lucky Loser. Those players can be dangerous having had a couple of matches in the conditions to become accustomed to how the court and the balls are playing, while Elias Ymer also reached the Quarter Final of a hard court tournament played in 2022.

Unlike his brother Mikael, Elias Ymer has yet to really find his feet on the full ATP Tour and remains well outside the top 100 of the World Rankings. Many felt he had the talent to produce more than we have seen and Elias Ymer has yet to crack the top 100, but he has beaten both players from inside the top 100 that he has faced so far this season.

Eiias Ymer may have surprised some with his two top 100 wins considering he was 1-8 in those matches on the hard courts in 2021. His return has been pretty decent in those matches, but Elias Ymer has a serve that can be attacked and that should give Lorenzo Musetti a chance to produce one of his better days in the office.

Last week Lorenzo Musetti actually beat Mikael Ymer in Rotterdam and I think the tennis he will be facing in this one will be similar, although Elias Ymer is not playing at the same kind of level as his brother.

It will be a tough test for the young Italian, but it is one that he can find a way of winning and I think he will be able to cover this spread too.

Taro Daniel + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: After meeting at the Australian Open, Taro Daniel and Andy Murray will face each other once again at the ATP Doha tournament being played this week. This First Round match could be quite interesting after Daniel upset the former World Number 1 at Melbourne Park, but the layers are not convinced there will be much chance of a repeat.

I think that underestimates Taro Daniel who had a very productive Australian summer, although he has not played any competitive tennis since losing in the Fourth Round at the first Grand Slam of the season. His numbers have been very productive behind serve and return in 2022, although the big question for someone like Taro Daniel is how long he can continue to produce at a level that he has not been able to sustain previously.

Taro Daniel has been serving really well, but winning 68% of points played behind that shot is a level that he is unlikely to keep performing at. However, Andy Murray has been a mixed bag in 2022 as he looks to find the tennis that took him to World Number 1 and it can be hard to know what kind of form he is going to bring to the court on a day to day basis.

At his peak, Andy Murray's return was a key part of the successes he was able to have on the Tour, but he hasn't always been able to defend around the court as he did at his best, That has allowed opponents to get on top of rallies and break down Andy Murray, while the British player is only holding 80% of service games played on the hard courts so far this season.

Andy Murray did reach the Final of a tournament in Sydney before the Australian Open begun, but his numbers have been disappointing since then. The service hold percentage has dropped to 72% in the four matches played after the Final in Sydney, and that has to offer Taro Daniel plenty of belief when he arrives on the court.

Their match at the Australian Open was closer than a straight sets win for Taro Daniel would suggest, but it may be a big ask for Andy Murray to turn the result and win by a wide enough margin to cover this spread. If Taro Daniel serves anything like he has been in 2022, I expect him to keep this match tight on the scoreboard and he can be backed with the games being given to him by the layers.

MY PICKS: Corentin Moutet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Taro Daniel + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 14th)

I took a little time away from the Tennis Picks after the Australian Open, but there are some big tournaments to be played through the remainder of February.

This week there are five tournaments across the ATP and WTA Tours and that includes a couple of events with plenty of Ranking points attached in Dubai and Rio.

Monday is usually one of the quieter days of the week as tournaments complete Qualifiers and only a few of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played. I will add any selections from the tournaments in Rio and Delray Beach to this thread, but these will be the opening selections of the week.

Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Andy Murray once famously stated that he believed Caroline Garcia was going to be the Number 1 Singles player on the WTA Tour, but the career high World Ranking has been Number 4 for the Frenchwoman. That Ranking was earned back in September 2018, but things have been much tougher over recent months and Caroline Garcia needs a big tournament to stop the decline as she has slipped to the edge of dropping out of the top 70 of the World Rankings.

Big points are available to her in Dubai this week, but Caroline Garcia had a poor Australian summer with a single win in four Singles matches played. An early loss at the Australian Open will have really hurt when you think of the performance produced by Caroline Garcia on the day, but now she has to take on players that are going to be amongst the best on the Tour in what is regularly an important tournament in this part of the Middle East.

Soon this will be a tournament that Caroline Garcia will not be able to play in without going through the Qualifiers and it is imperative for her to produce big wins over the coming weeks before heading onto the clay courts of Europe.

Caroline Garcia could have asked for a much easier draw than facing Barbora Krejcikova in the First Round in Dubai- she will have some mental hurdles to overcome having been beaten by this opponent in Australia while winning just two games.

Losses to Madison Keys and Paula Badosa over the Australian summer don't look terrible when you think of how well both of those players are playing, but Barbora Krejcikova has increased expectations as the World Number 3 and as a Grand Slam Champion. The Czech player reached the Final in Dubai last year before really announcing herself as one of the top performers on the WTA Tour, and her numbers on the serve and return so far in 2022 are very encouraging.

It has been the return where Caroline Garcia have really struggled in her matches over the first month of the season and I expect that is going to be an issue for her here. When they met in Sydney, Barbora Krejcikova had 12 break points compared to a single one for Caroline Garcia and I do think the higher Ranked player is going to have the better of the play.

This is a big spread, but Barbora Krejcikova has covered this number of games in both her previous wins against this opponent. With a serve that is pretty decent, Barbora Krejcikova can get her teeth into the return and eventually pull away for a comfortable enough passage through to the Second Round here.

Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Alison Riske: After turning 30 in September last year and with injuries perhaps hindering some of her tennis, Simona Halep may have been at a crossroads in her career. It didn't take long for the Romanian to knuckle down and look to return to the top of the WTA Tour and the main goal for the 2022 season has to be recovering to move back inside the top 10 of the World Rankings.

Her performances in Australia certainly suggest that Simona Halep is capable of doing that in what is a wide open Tour and it was a good start to the year to reach the Australian Open Fourth Round and also win a title in Melbourne. Simona Halep will be demanding more from herself though and will believe she missed an opportunity at the first Grand Slam of the season having looked in very good form before losing to Alize Cornet.

This is a good chance for Simona Halep to keep the momentum going after producing some very strong performances already this season and looking like she is getting back to her best. The serve can sometimes be a little vulnerable, but Simona Halep has been returning really well in 2022 and has won 55% of return points already played.

That is a very impressive number and it is certainly going to be good enough to give Alison Riske plenty to think about, although the American is a hard working player that definitely gets the most out of the talent she possesses. She has regularly been an effective hard court player without pulling up trees, but Alison Riske never shies away from the challenge that is given to her from the top players on the Tour.

Alison Riske has not returned as well as she would have liked in 2022, while her serve is one that can be attacked and that is an issue for her in this match up. At least Simona Halep is unlikely to overpower Alison Riske, but the longer rallies should see the higher Ranked player come out on top enough times to move into a position to cover this spread in this First Round match.

The American has taken a set from Simona Halep in two of the three matches played between them, and their sole hard court match was very competitive. However, I think Halep has been producing the stronger tennis by some distance so far in the early weeks of the season and I think that will be enough for her to attack the Alison Riske serve and work her way to the cover of this spread.

Mikael Ymer - 1.5 games v Richard Gasquet: The 36th birthday is coming up in a few months and injuries have begun to take their toll on Richard Gasquet as he has dropped to Number 77 in the World Rankings. He clearly still has a desire to compete having taken part in a number of Challenger events to close out 2021 as the Frenchman looks to have an Indian summer to his long career.

The numbers suggest it is going to be a tough ask for Richard Gasquet to do that as his body has broken down, although he did reach the Quarter Final in Montpellier following the Australian Open.

However, that tournament was ended by Mikael Ymer who is the opponent he will face in the First Round in Marseille. The Swedish player has struggled to really bring his tennis to the full ATP Tour level, but he has made a positive start to the 2022 season and Mikael Ymer has had plenty of time to get used to the conditions in Marseille having been beaten early in Rotterdam.

He had reached the Semi Final in Montpellier before being beaten by Alexander Zverev and Mikael Ymer beat a couple of Frenchmen at that tournament, including Richard Gasquet. The return game has been hugely important for Mikael Ymer so far this season with breaks in 27% of return games played, and that has been key considering he has a vulnerable serve that opponents do look to attack.

Richard Gasquet hasn't really had the same level of success on the return as Mikael Ymer and that was the case when they met earlier this month. He has only broken in 16% of return games played and won 7% fewer return points than Ymer when these two players met in the Quarter Final in Montpellier and I am looking for Mikael Ymer to frank that form.

I do think it can be hard to trust the younger player when you think of his serve and the vulnerabilities has had on that shot, but Mikael Ymer returned well enough against Richard Gasquet in the two previous matches against him. He has won both of those in France and I think the Swede can complete the hat-trick by seeing off the veteran in the First Round.

When Mikael Ymer has won, he has tended to do so by a good margin and I think he can do that here. Richard Gasquet can give him opponent something to think about with the adjustments he is likely to make, but that may not be enough and I will look for the favourite to move through.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mikael Ymer - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 12th)

The tournaments are getting down to the final couple of days as the Semi Final and Quarter Final matches scheduled for Friday are set to be played.

A busy day means this thread is far shorter than the previous ones this past week, but you can see my selections below for those set to go on Friday.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pierre-Hugues Herbert + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arthur Rinderknech-Ugo Humbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-9, - 2.38 Units (36 Units Staked, - 6.61% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 11th)

It is unsurprising that the biggest news story in the world of tennis this week is the return of Roger Federer after being off the courts since the 2020 Australian Open. There is clearly a lot of respect for the former World Number 1 on both the ATP and WTA Tours and Federer didn't let anyone down in showing off some of the shot-making which has made him so wonderful to watch over the last twenty plus years.

I'm a fan, I've always loved watching Roger Federer live and I think it would be a travesty if he was not able to have his moments in front of big crowds again. There are some suggestions this could be the final year on the Tour for the Swiss superstar, but I can only hope those are premature reports and Federer is able to not only find his best tennis, but to be able to compete at as close to 100% health as possible.

He has admitted himself that he is unlikely to play completely pain-free again, but it is all about how he can manage his schedule and make sure he gives himself his best shot to compete on the court. Roger Federer won't want to make up the numbers and will only continue as long as he can see a path to winning more Grand Slam titles and I do hope I have not seen him play for the last time.

The win over Daniel Evans was a tough one, but shows the kind of level Roger Federer can operate at considering the form the British player has already produced in 2021. A bigger question will be about how well Federer can recover with the tournament in Doha being played in a small window before he moves onto Dubai and that means being back out on court on Thursday in the Quarter Final.

A winning day for the Tennis Picks will always be well received, but I am still looking to put the week back into a positive number and try and secure a first win of the 2021 season. Each week on the Tour feels like a 'new game' but I am 0-3 down when it comes to the positive-negative returns and I am looking to change that and get moving back in the right direction.

As I have already mentioned, this week the Tennis markets are not being created as quickly as I would like and that means I am not writing out full analysis until we get down to the last couple of days at the events being played. For now I am researching my selections, but simply placing those selections in the 'My Picks' below.

Hopefully the momentum from Wednesday can be carried through another day.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Christian Garin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.50 Units (24 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 10th)

The tournaments that are scheduled to be completed this week are being played in various timezones and that also means markets are not being put together as quickly as I would have imagined.

It is a touch frustrating because it means I can research selections, but can't officially make them unless the numbers on the spread are where I want them to be. For example I might favour Player A to beat Player B and believe that the handicap mark should be around 2.5 games, but I can't actually make the Pick unless it lines up with the marks that are eventually released by the layers.

With that in mind I think the early threads this week are going to feature Picks without analysis more often than not, but the tournaments should settle down as we get through to Sunday. With fewer matches, the markets should be created a little quicker and with more time to actually get a few thoughts down as to why I have selected the matches I have.

I will add any Picks from the ATP Santiago and WTA Guadalajara tournaments to this thread on Wednesday (if there are any selections from the Second Round matches there), but for now I have my Tennis Picks from the ATP Doha, ATP Marseille and WTA Dubai tournaments being played.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Vasek Pospisil + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.18 Units (10 Units Staked, - 21.80% Yield)

Season 2021: - 16.48 Units (301.5 Units Staked, - 5.47% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 20th)

What a terrible week this one has been!

That's the biggest takeaway I can have with so many bad breaks that is beginning to feel like I've run over ten black cats and walked under a hundred ladders.

An eleven month season is going to have the ups and downs, but this is far below the standards I have set for the last two and a half seasons and I will be looking at Thursday as potentially being the last day of Tennis Picks for this week if things keep going into the 'weird zone'.

At some point the strong numbers that continue to be returned have to produce more winners than losers, but I am not into chasing a bad beat and so another poor day on Thursday will mean I will look to reset and get back to the Tennis Picks at the start of next week.

Let's see how it goes and whether this week is just one coming out of the Twilight Zone.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: In the years ahead once the 'Big Three' have perhaps hung up their racquets, it would not be a major surprise to see Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner taking on one another at the business end of the Grand Slams. Both look talented enough to win Major prizes, although it is clear that Medvedev is someway further down the line in his career than his Italian opponent.

That is not a major surprise when you think that Daniil Medvedev is five years older than Sinner and the Russian has already reached the Final of a Grand Slam tournament when doing that at the US Open last September. Daniil Medvedev might be a little disappointed with his performance at the Australian Open last month and he was beaten in his first match in Rotterdam last week, but I expect better from him as he gets set to play this Second Round match in Marseille.

At the end of the day the numbers have remained strong for Medvedev and he can play at a level that may be tough to match for Jannik Sinner despite the obvious talent the Italian player has. A solid win in the First Round will have made Sinner feel good after a good run at Rotterdam last week, but there is still some inconsistency in his play which is not a massive surprise as he finds his feet at a higher level than the Challenger and Qualifying events that Sinner was formerly playing at.

So far in 2020 Jannik Sinner has won 62% of his service points played and he has held in 77% of his service games played on the hard courts which are reasonable marks, but nothing that should intimidate Daniil Medvedev. His return game is up alongside the very best on the ATP Tour and breaks in 29% of return games played on this surface suggests he will be able to at least put Sinner under some real pressure.

There is a real difference in the way the two players have been returning on the Tour and Jannik Sinner has struggled to a break in 19% of return games played on this surface. That might be good enough against some opponents, but against someone who can return serve like Daniil Medvedev can then it is a mark that can be exposed.

I think this will be a good match with some strong tennis played by both, but you do have to think Daniil Medvedev can edge out Jannik Sinner with at least one break more in each of the two sets that are likely needed to be played in this Second Round match.


Marin Cilic v Denis Shapovalov: 2019 was a difficult year for Marin Cilic, but he has looked like he could have a bounce back year this time around. The Croatian is back for the first time since the Australian Open where he reached the Fourth Round and he came from a set down to deservedly move into the Second Round here in Marseille.

The match up is much tougher in this Round, but Denis Shapovalov has been struggling for his form. The young Canadian is a definite star going forward, but he has lost four matches in a row which includes defeats in his first match played in both Montpellier and Rotterdam.

Those will have dented some of the confidence and Shapovalov has really been struggling in a number of facets of his game. Despite winning 65% of service points behind serve, the Canadian is holding in 80% of the games being played which is putting a lot of pressure on a return game which has still got a lot of room for improvement.

Over the last twelve months Denis Shapovalov has broken in 16% of return games played on the hard courts, but that number has slipped to 9% in 2020 which is not going to win too many matches. He has not been creating too many break point opportunities in recent matches and that is a real concern, although Denis Shapovalov did crush Marin Cilic when these two met at Indian Wells eleven months ago.

That came at a time when Shapovalov looked to be in better form overall though and Marin Cilic has opened 2020 in decent shape. He is serving very well which can at least keep his younger opponent under the cosh and Cilic has broken in 19% of return games which is considerably better than the mark Denis Shapovalov has produced in the last seven weeks.

It could be the key to the outcome of this match and I do think Marin Cilic can be backed as the underdog in this Second Round match in Marseille. At some point Denis Shapovalov will get back to winning ways and producing solid runs in events, but Marin Cilic may have enough of an edge here on both the serve and return to just get over the line and move into the Friday Quarter Final.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Juame Munar: A return to the clay courts will be welcomed by Juame Munar, but even then it has been a difficult time for the Spaniard during the South American Golden Swing. He has been struggling for consistency, and Munar will know the kind of test that is in front of him when facing an opponent who has reached multiple French Open Finals on this surface.

Dominic Thiem is playing in his first tournament since coming up a little short in the Australian Open Final last month as he could not quite convert a 2-1 lead in sets to a first Slam title. It is no surprise he has taken a couple of weeks off from the Tour to recharge the mental batteries more than anything else as Thiem managed to win some big matches Down Under before finding Novak Djokovic just a little too good on the day.

He is a usual name we see when the Golden Swing hits South America and Thiem will be pleased he was pushed a little bit on the First Round here in Rio de Janeiro as it will have got the competitive spirit bubbling. Dominic Thiem was still largely dominant against a local prospect and the Austrian has been able to get a lot out of his serve on the clay courts which has always put opponents under pressure to try and respond.

To really step up and perhaps win a Grand Slam on the clay courts you might want to see Thiem pick up his level on the return of serve. On this surface you would like to think he can improve the 29% mark of return games in which Thiem has broken serve and that will be especially important just to make life easier in some matches.

This could be a match in which we see that as Dominic Thiem has beaten Juame Munar twice before on the clay courts and has managed to break serve in 42% of return games played. At the same time he has barely been threatened on his own serve by the Spaniard and nothing we have seen so far in 2020 gives much encouragement for Munar here.

Juame Munar is holding just 68% of the service games played on the clay courts in 2020 and over the last twelve months that number is 75%. While that is ok against many, it doesn't bode well against someone like Thiem who has managed to get himself into comfortable positions in the head to head between them.


Borna Coric - 3.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: There are a number of younger players on the ATP Tour who have looked like they are close to breaking through and giving the 'Big Three' players something new to think about. Others have flashed their potential, but could be left behind as the 'Next Gen' continues to develop and I do think 2020 is an important season for Borna Coric.

There is no doubting the talent that Coric possesses, but at 23 years old he needs to have a bounce back from what was an injury hit and loss of form 2019. It was a season much below the kind of level the Croatian had produced in 2018 and a poor start to 2020 is not very encouraging.

Over the last twelve months the clay courts have proven to be his most effective surface so this Golden Swing in South America is an important time for Borna Coric. An early loss in Buenos Aires was very disappointing, but Coric had a very good win over Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round here in Rio and that should give him a boost to take into this Second Round match where he is a significant favourite to progress.

Borna Coric won't just be battling someone across the court from him, but Thiago Seyboth Wild is going to have plenty of support from his compatriots in this match. The youngster is turning 20 years old next month, but Seyboth Wild has yet to really make an impact on the Tour that he would have liked and his clay court numbers are largely fairly average despite playing at a lower level than the one he will see in Rio for the majority of his career.

Thiago Seyboth Wild did have a win as an underdog in the First Round, but it was a very close match against some Ranked considerably lower down the World Rankings than Borna Coric. The Brazilian was on the court for almost four hours which is incredible and Seyboth Wild is going to be challenged by Borna Coric who has the stronger serve and the superior returning on this surface.

This is also the first time Seyboth Wild is going to be taking on an opponent Ranked inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and the step up might be too much with fatigue a potential issue too. I think Borna Coric will be better for the win over a solid clay courter in Londero a couple of days ago and he can win this match and cover a big looking mark for someone who has been in mixed form.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-13, - 19.48 Units (34 Units Staked, - 57.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 19th)

I've had a much busier Tuesday evening than I envisioned and that means I have not been able to put my thoughts down for any of the Tennis Picks I have for Wednesday.

It was a difficult Tuesday with three selections all losing and another ending in a retirement with the Pick being in a strong position. My one disappointment so far this season is that three of the four weeks in which I have made Tennis Picks have now started with a losing record.

Thankfully the other two times it has happened I have managed to turn things around with the process being trusted, but I do think it can be a difficult position from which to recover if it keeps happening and so I will be looking for much better starts to the week going forward.


Below you can see the Tennis Picks from the Second Round matches that are set to be played on Wednesday and I have updated the weekly totals. I will be back with a fuller post for the Thursday selections and hopefully with more winners being produced than not.


MY PICKS: Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dennis Novak @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.74 Units (16 Units Staked, - 54.63% Yield)