Indian Wells Tennis Day 3 Picks 2026 (Friday 6th March)

It has been a conscious decision to make a slower start to the Tennis Picks at Indian Wells and that is partly down to the uncertainty as to how conditions are playing here this year.

The other reason is the continuous rumours of illnesses surging through the field, which is something that slightly concerns me whenever I've seen a price drifting.

Two selections have been made from the opening Second Round matches at the tournament as Day 3 gets underway.

On Thursday, the two selections were split with a win apiece, but that meant the narrowest of positive returns- at the moment the idea is to slowly build into the event, but you just never know when there are multiple matches that hit the criteria being used to move from shortlist to selection.

Victoria Mboko - 5.5 games v Kimberly Birrell: Like many sports, there is always going to be times when you want to identify the next big stars coming through.

Two teenagers are making waves in the top ten of the World Rankings and Victoria Mboko may be feeling most confident.

The 19 year old has reached the Final at a couple of tournaments on the hard courts in 2026, although Victoria Mboko has come up short both times. The latter of those appearances was in the Final of the WTA 1000 event in Doha and Mboko has also reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.

Twelve months ago, Victoria Mboko was sitting outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and would have been taking part in tournaments far below this elite level. It means the Canadian has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points until the Tour moves significantly into the clay court season in preparation for the French Open and Victoria Mboko has been playing well enough to believe she can have a strong impact in Indian Wells.

Playing here for the first time will be challenging, but Mboko has to be pretty comfortable with the opponent she is facing in the Second Round.

Kimberly Birrell was a comfortable winner in the First Round and reached the Semi Final in Austin last week, but it has been a real struggle for the World Number 69 when she has stepped up to face some of the top players on the Tour.

Over the last twelve months, Kimberly Birrell has a 4-8 record on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents and her numbers have taken a significant dip in those compared with her overall form on the surface.

The first serve has perhaps not had the impact she would have hoped and Kimberly Birrell has struggled on the return, which are both going to pose problems for her in this kind of match.

Both Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina have secured very strong wins over Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts in 2026, while Victoria Mboko beat her for the loss of just three games in the Adelaide Semi Final back in January.

This is the second time Victoria Mboko has beaten Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts over the last seven months and the younger player has been a much more confident server in those head to head matches. When they played in Montreal last August, Mboko wasn't quite as effective on the return, but still won pretty handily and was much improved in that aspect of her tennis when facing the Australian in Adelaide.

You have to expect Kimberly Birrell has picked up some confidence from her performance in Austin and then winning an opening Round match here, which also means being a bit more comfortable in the conditions.

However, not only has she lost all five hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, but Kimberly Birrell would not have covered this line in four of those defeats and that may be the case again in the Second Round.

Alexandra Eala v Dayana Yastremska: One player who seemingly plays at an unexpected level when she is opposed on these pages, but is so far off it when she is backed, is Dayana Yastremska.

However, she is going to be opposed in this Second Round match at Indian Wells.

A win in the First Round will have made the World Number 52 feel a lot better about her tennis, but she has a 4-7 record prior to Indian Wells on the hard courts. Dayana Yastremska has struggled for any kind of consistency and her numbers on serve and return both back that up.

Draws can slant any record, but it should be noted that Dayana Yastremska is just 4-4 when going into a match as the higher Ranked player- even in those matches, the numbers remain disappointing for a former Australian Open Semi Finalist.

Without a doubt that has to have had an impact on the confidence.

At the moment it does feel like Alexandra Eala is a touch overrated in the main- she has played at Rafael Nadal's Academy, which will generate headlines, and the youngster has put some solid results on the board that means she climbed 100 places in the World Rankings from January 2025 to January 2026.

An early exit at the Australian Open would have hurt considering the support she received, but Alexandra Eala has bounced back with a solid run through the Middle East.

Out of the two players, Alexandra Eala has been putting up some solid hard court numbers and she will have taken confidence from the crushing win produced over Dayana Yastremska on the grass courts of Eastbourne last June.

A slow hard court is a different test, but Alexandra Eala comes into the match having won nine of the thirteen matches played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 on the hard courts this season. Her numbers have been very good, and she looks like she can edge past the Ukrainian into the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexandra Eala @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 1-2, - 0.90 Units (3 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)

UK Open Darts Day 1 Picks 2026 (Friday 6th March)

The second Ranking tournament on the PDC Calendar is being played in Minehead over the weekend and the UK Open has long been described as the 'FA Cup of Darts'.

Much like the football competition, the top Seeds are held out until the Fourth Round of the competition, which is played in the Evening Session on Day 1 of the tournament.

And just like the FA Cup, the UK Open Darts tournament is an open draw that takes place after each Round following the opening three Rounds, which are played on Day 1 during the Day Session in a best of eleven Leg format.

That becomes best of nineteen in the Fourth Round and the markets will be priced up after the draw is made on Friday afternoon- an open draw means we could see some big matches immediately.

Round Five is set to be played in the Day Session on Day 2, while the Sixth Round will be played in the Evening Session on the same day.

Most top Darts players will be used to the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final played on the Sunday, although the longer format does make it more challenging and increases the importance of trying to get through matches without having to face too much emotional drama.

Picks from the Day 1 Evening Session should be added here around 6pm (assuming markets are put together pretty quickly) and there is no doubting the intensity of all participants with big prize money and strong Ranking Points to be earned.

Gian van Veen to win & over 4.5 180s v Rob Cross: It has been a tough year for Rob Cross who has slipped out of the top 20 in the World Rankings, but he has been producing some decent stuff on the floor.

More will be needed if he is going to get the better of a player who replaced him in the Premier League in 2026.

Gian van Veen has found a consistent level in the Premier League, but has also shown he is a very competitive match player at the World Championship and World Masters.

The Dutchman should have enough to progress past Rob Cross and the expectation is that he will hit at least five maximums in what could be a match that needs at least fifteen Legs before finding Gian van Veen in a position to win and take his place in the draw for the next Round.

Michael Smith - 2.5 legs v Leon Weber: The underdog has come through a couple of Rounds at the UK Open and was hitting some big maximums in those wins.

However, Leon Weber has invested a lot already today with eleven Legs needed in both wins and his average has been far from impressive.

Now while Michael Smith has not been near his best level over the last twelve months, he has shown on the floor and in Qualifying for European Tour events that he is still a level above what he should see in this Fourth Round match.

In a best of nineteen format, Bully Boy should be able to come through with some room to spare.

Luke Humphries to win & most 180s v Luke Woodhouse: If the World Masters meeting is anything to go by, this is going to be one of the ties of the Round in the Fourth Round at the UK Open.

Luke Woodhouse is improving all of the time, but he fell short against Luke Humphries in the World Masters and that is likely going to be the case again.

Set play can make scores that much closer, but Humphries won eleven of the eighteen Legs played at the World Masters and he has still been playing at a level that could be too much for most to handle.

One concern is that Luke Humphries has struggled to maintain standards within matches and he will need to make a fast start- he has been scoring well, but the doubling has been letting him down at times.

As long as he can look after that side of his darts, Luke Humphries may have one or two more maximums in a winning effort.

Gary Anderson - 1.5 legs v Dirk van Duijvenbode: This should be a big hitting match, but Gary Anderson has found a way past the Dutchman in the last three meetings on the Tour.

They only met once last year, but Anderson found that relatively comfortable and he has been playing with a bit more consistency on the floor.

Dirk van Duijvenbode is always capable of producing an upset with his power scoring, but Gary Anderson can match that side of his darts and may use the fan support to find a way to something like a 10-7 win.

Josh Rock - 2.5 legs v William O'Connor: The Premier League has proven to be a really difficult step for Josh Rock, but the actual performances are not as bad as the results being produced.

He is going to be pushed by William O'Connor, who was receiving plenty of support in the Day Session, but Rocky has handled the darts thrown at him from this opponent.

They met in Krakow a couple of weeks ago and Josh Rock averaged 10 points higher than O'Connor, which was reflected in the 6-1 win.

Confidence might have been dented by the opening five weeks in the Premier League, but Josh Rock can use the best of nineteen leg format to warm up to the task and eventually pull away in this one.

Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen: This was a Premier League level match last year and Nathan Aspinall has to be really disappointed that he was not invited back into that tournament.

He has been playing some very good darts to open 2026, but it has been a couple of weeks since we last saw him at the Polish Open.

A huge amount of respect is given to Michael van Gerwen, but Nathan Aspinall may be playing the Dutchman at a good time.

Illness has slowed the early form and van Gerwen has lost his last three matches, while also suffering an early exit at the World Masters. He was not himself on Thursday night at the Premier League and Aspinall had enough wins over him in the Premier League last season to have the confidence to get over the line.

His scoring will need to be on point, but Nathan Aspinall can outlast Michael van Gerwen in this one.

MY PICKS: Gian van Veen to Win & Over 4.5 180s @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michael Smith - 2.5 Legs @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Luke Humphries to Win & Most 180s @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Gary Anderson - 1.5 Legs @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Josh Rock - 2.5 Legs @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Nathan Aspinall @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 17-23, - 2.78 Units (39 Units Staked, - 7.13% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th March)

Tennis Paradise.

The marketing promotes this side of Indian Wells and the fans and players do love playing in this part of California, but the opening day of the main draw of this Masters 1000 event was cold, windy and ultimately too rainy to complete.

It does mean a loaded Thursday at the tournament as the remainder of the First Round is all scheduled to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events taking place and all in preparation for the Seeded players to join the party on Friday.

The weather forecast for the rest of the tournament is looking much more like what we have come to expect from Indian Wells and it will be interesting to hear how players like the new conditions- the tournament had been operating one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but early indications is that the courts are much quicker in 2024 and the desert air will contribute to the balls flying through the court.

It is something we will have to keep in mind compared with previous Indian Wells tournaments.

The conditions were one negative of the opening day of the main draw, but the bigger story is clearly the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal who continues to feel he is unable to operate at the level needed to be back on the Tour.

An exhibition was played against Carlos Alcaraz, but poor movement in practice had suggested Nadal was dealing with a problem and it looks like any return to the Tour will now have to wait until the clay court season, which begins next month.

This is yet another hint towards retirement and it would not be a surprise if the Spaniard calls time on his career after the Olympic Games, also played at his favourite Grand Slam surroundings in Roland Garros. The only hope for fans is that we are going to get to see Rafael Nadal enjoying his tennis and being able to head off on his own terms, but there has to be a concern as to how he will be able to hold up through the tough clay court season in the build to the French Open.

Only half of the Tennis Picks were completed on Thursday as the rain hit the event and postponed a number of matches until Thursday.

A number of other selections from the First Round matches that were originally scheduled for Thursday can be read below as the tournament prepares to welcome some of the top names on the Tour to the action in the Second Round.

Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Conditions may favour the latter at Indian Wells if the courts are playing very quickly, but Lorenzo Sonego has been struggling for any kind of consistent form in 2024.

He has had his moments, and the serve makes him dangerous, but Sonego has not been returning very well and that may give Miomir Kecmanovic the edge in this First Round match.

The Serb has not exactly been piling up the wins, but the run to the Quarter Final in Acapulco will have him feeling better about his overall tennis.

Lorenzo Sonego may bemoan some of the early draws given to him in 2024, but his ending to 2023 on the hard courts was also pretty ineffective and Kecmanovic can move in front in their head to head on the Tour.

Tomas Machac - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The money has come in on the younger player who has produced some very good hard court performances this season and Tomas Machac has to be happy in hearing about the faster court conditions.

Take nothing away from the achievements Stan Wawrinka has had in his career, but he has only played one hard court match this season and has now dropped as low as World Number 70 having peaked at World Number 3.

The lack of hard court tennis has to be a concern, while the move from the clay courts to the faster Indian Wells court may be more difficult than it has been previously.

Stan Wawrinka still has quality and can produce eye-catching tennis, but doing so over a couple of hours may be difficult against this opponent.

Tomas Machac has had solid hard court wins over the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Andy Murray this season, and he will feel he should have gotten the better of Karen Khachanov in Melbourne and Alexander Bublik in Dubai.

He did get the better of Stan Wawrinka on an indoor hard court at the back end of the 2023 season and Machac can do the same at Indian Wells.

Arthur Fils - 1.5 games v Nuno Borges: He may have disappointed me on the clay courts, but Arthur Fils can be backed to win this First Round match.

Take nothing away from Nuno Borges who has backed up the run at the Australian Open with some big performances, but the numbers are average and it feels like he has just played the big points at an unsustainable level.

He will be out for revenge having won just two games in a big loss to Arthur Fils earlier this season, but things have gone much better for the Portuguese player since then.

There is a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Fils, and he has yet to show the consistency that people would have hoped, but this is a solid hard court player. As long as he serves well, Arthur Fils can get the better of Nuno Borges for a second time in 2024 and pick up some big Ranking points before the clay court season gets underway.

Patrick Kypson - 1.5 games v Ethan Quinn: Any player that wins two Qualifiers to earn a spot in the main draw of any tournament has to be given a lot of respect. It means they are familiar with the conditions and there will be some confidence having won two matches in a row, while Ethan Quinn will also note that his two wins were against players Ranked higher than Patrick Kypson.

There may also be a little bit of motivation from the fact Patrick Kypson earned a Wild Card spot into the main draw, while these two players met in a tight, competitive Challenger tournament Final in Cleveland.

Ultimately Kypson got the better of Ethan Quinn on the day with the slightly stronger serving making a difference and the feeling is that this will be the case when they face off in the First Round.

Patrick Kypson followed that tournament win in Cleveland by reaching the Quarter Final in Delray Beach and operating at a higher level than Ethan Quinn may give the higher Ranked American the edge to move through to bigger contests in the Second Round.

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 games v Pavel Kotov: Reaching the Final in his home tournament in Santiago will have been a positive on one hand, but Alejandro Tabilo has to be disappointed he was not able to win the title.

That match was played a few days ago and travelling to Indian Wells to move onto a new surface is going to be a big ask.

Most would also expect Alejandro Tabilo to have his best results on the clay courts, but he is up at a new career high World Ranking mark of 39 and he came through two Qualifying Rounds on his way to winning a hard court title in Auckland in January.

Pavel Kotov is struggling for consistency and he may need Tabilo to be a little fatigued to have a chance to beat the lefty.

With this match on a Thursday, Alejandro Tabilo cannot have many excuses about being too tired to compete and the feeling is that he will get the better of this opponent and continue to improve the World Ranking.

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 games v Rebeka Masarova: A couple of solid Qualifier wins will have given Rebeka Masarova confidence and it is not ideal backing a player speaking about being unworried about results.

That is what was coming from the Emma Raducanu camp ahead of this WTA 1000 event with the British player speaking about development rather than getting matches under the belt.

Ultimately those things do go hand in hand and Emma Raducanu should be winning a match like this one against a solid, but unspectacular hard court opponent.

It has been a mixed start to 2024, but only the loss at the Australian Open has to be considered a really poor one for the former US Open Champion. In general Emma Raducanu has gotten the better of those she should be beating and Rebeka Masarova is one of those players.

The wins in the Qualifiers will give Masarova confidence, but the Spaniard had lost five of six matches prior to arriving at Indian Wells and Emma Raducanu can find her way through to the Second Round.

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anna Blinkova: The upset over Elena Rybakina a the Australian Open may end up being the absolute highlight of Anna Blinkova's 2024 season, but she will be looking for more.

Wins over Caroline Wozniacki and Dayana Yastremska in San Diego shows that confidence is not a problem, but Anna Blinkova is going to need to be at her best to beat Karolina Pliskova.

If the conditions are as expected, Pliskova's serve could be a major weapon on Thursday and potentially deep into the tournament.

An injury hit twelve months has just pushed Karolina Pliskova out of the limelight generated by Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, but the Czech player has just reminded everyone of the danger she poses. After winning a title in Cluj, Karolina Pliskova reached the Semi Final in Doha and Fourth Round in Dubai, two big hard court events, and the only defeat suffered was in three sets to Gauff.

She will certainly feel she should have won that match and Karolina Pliskova had strong runs in Indian Wells in the past having twice reached the Semi Final and twice reached the Quarter Final.

Serving well will put Anna Blinkova under pressure and Karolina Pliskova can earn solid passage into the next Round.

MY PICKS: Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Patrick Kypson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0 % Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 6th)

The late finishes at the ATP events in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires has meant needing to wait for the Semi Final markets to be put together and that means I have had to wait to put my Semi Final Picks together.

The Final in Doha looks a good one on paper, but I can't really pick a winner between Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, two former multiple time Grand Slam Champions who have made a very strong start to 2021. That is particularly the case for Muguruza who had Match Points to beat Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open, form that has been franked by the run Osaka had to the title in Melbourne.

After a slow start and some frustrations, the last two days have turned around the form on the selections and it has justified my belief that the system to identify Picks is not a major issue. Adjustments always need to be made and slight tweaks, but ultimately my feeling was that there was more bad luck than bad identification that was causing the start to the 2021 season.

Too many times the inches had just gone against those players I had picked, but it happens over the course of a long Tour and I think the key was to remain largely grounded. If Borna Coric had taken the multiple Break Points he had created in the second set against Kei Nishikori it could have been a clean sweep on Friday, but I am always happy when a positive outcome is seen at the end of the day.

As I have mentioned, the lack of time between the completion of the Quarter Final matches and the start of the Semi Final matches means I will not have full analysis written down below.

Instead you can see my selections for the day with the tournaments winding down before moving onto five new spots next week.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-16, - 0.66 Units (68 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (March 6-10)

The last major Double GameWeek is in the books for the players of the Fantasy Premier League game, but the deadlines come thick and fast and there is another full round of games to come this weekend.

I will get into the GameWeek 27 Fantasy implications below, but first I will get through my thoughts for the Premier League games to be played this weekend and then the one game to make up during the week.

Burnley v Arsenal Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend will see a rested Arsenal head to Turf Moor as a considerable favourite to beat Burnley.

On recent form you can understand Arsenal being favoured, but Burnley have not been playing badly themselves and I don't think they will be willing to roll over as easily as Leicester City did against The Gunners last weekend.

This should be a stronger Arsenal team taking to the field against Burnley compared with the one that began last Sunday and they are well rested ahead of an important Europa League tie next Thursday. Mikel Arteta will have seen the results go in favour of his club over the last week and Arsenal will want to at least finish in the European places in the Premier League which means finding some consistency in the English top flight.

It has not really been evident all season and the away record underlines the issue with Arsenal having won 6 and lost 6 of their 13 away League games played. They have been difficult to predict from week to week, but they should have more in the tank than Burnley who put in a huge effort in their 1-1 draw with Leicester City on Wednesday and who have played twice since Arsenal last took to the field.

Burnley's poor home record against Arsenal can't be ignored and the visitors will be motivated by the revenge factor having lost at home to this opponent earlier this season.

Either way it will likely be a tight game and goals have been hard to come by at Turf Moor this season, both for Burnley and their visitors.

Recent games between these clubs at Turf Moor have tended to be low scoring too and I do think Arsenal's erratic form could lead to another one. While they have been scoring goals, Arsenal have not always created the best of chances and will need clinical finishing to get the better of Burnley here, although defensively Arsenal have looked a little stronger of late.

My feeling is that the away team may do enough to win here, but I don't think there will be a lot in it. A low scoring game is the most likely outcome of this game with Burnley struggling for consistency in the final third, but largely being pretty good defensively and it would not be a surprise if this is the ninth time in 10 games between these clubs at Turf Moor that we see fewer than three goals shared out.

Sheffield United v Southampton Pick: The 1-0 win over Aston Villa will be seen as a hugely positive result for Sheffield United, but there is still a long road to tread towards safety and it is the longest of long-shots.

They will be feeling pretty confident going into this fixture, but Phil Jagielka's sending off has left Sheffield United with very few options in defensive areas. That will likely put some pressure on their forwards to score the goals that may be needed to secure a positive result and this is a big opportunity for Southampton to earn something to reverse their negative trend.

Amazingly Southampton have picked up a single point from the last 27 available in the Premier League and they would be foolish to believe they are out of a relegation battle. If Fulham have won on Thursday the gap to the bottom three will feel far too close and Ralph Hasenhuttl knows his team need to find a break or two very quickly.

In reality they haven't been playing badly of late, but it has been a switch from earlier this season when Southampton were earning points out of games they were perhaps undeserving of doing. Now the opposite has been happening with Southampton deserving more than they are getting, but continuing in their current vein should see a reversal of form.

Injuries have not helped Southampton so they won't be sympathetic to Sheffield United's issues, but there are going to be a couple of key players returning for them this weekend. That could prove the difference on the day as Southampton look to reverse the slump they are in and I think they are capable of doing that as long as they continue to attack with the verve they have been.

Kyle Walker-Peters return is hugely important to the balance of the team, while Southampton are a big threat from set pieces. I expect they will find the hosts a little tired after the effort put into their last game and I think Southampton take advantage as they look to move away from any late relegation problems.

Aston Villa v Wolves Pick: It isn't easy to predict what you are going to see from Aston Villa and Wolves from game to game and that has been underlined by the recent results and performances from both teams.

There have been times they have ridden their luck to earn positive results, but others when they have perhaps deserved a bit more than they have gotten and a derby game makes things a little more cloudy.

The feeling is that Wolves are still struggling defensively, but Aston Villa may be missing Jack Grealish again and showed how much they can miss him in the loss at Sheffield United. Without his creativity you do wonder how Aston Villa are going to go about breaking down Wolves, although defensively they have largely been in control in recent games and should be able to contain the Wolves threat.

Wolves have scored goals even when not creating too many golden chances and that makes them dangerous, but Aston Villa will be looking to bounce back from their poor last result. They have followed their last 4 Premier League losses with a victory in their next League game and I do think Dean Smith will get a reaction from his players.

It should be close and competitive being a derby, but Aston Villa may do enough to edge to the points.

Brighton v Leicester City Pick: Graham Potter must have been left scratching his head as to how Brighton have earned nothing from their last two Premier League games. Missed Penalties and some poor refereeing can be blamed, but Potter will surely be asking his players to look at themselves and find a little more composure to their play.

To be fair to Brighton, this is a team that have looked really good right up until the opposition penalty area, but the final ball or the finish has not been up to the standard of the rest of the football being played. It has meant the team have created some massive chances in their last few games, but failed to make them count.

In the last two games it would not be wrong to suggest that Brighton could have won by two or three goal margins each time with a little more composure in the final third. At this point of the season you have to wonder if this squad is capable of putting the finishing touches to the style Graham Potter has instilled at the Amex Stadium, but Brighton may not have a better opportunity to beat one of the top teams in the Premier League.

They are facing a Leicester City who have been hammered by injuries and likely need the international break at the end of the month to reset. The battling 1-1 draw at Burnley impressed Brendan Rodgers, but he knows his team need more if they are going to finish in the top four this season and any points dropped here will hurt.

Leicester City have struggled in the last three weeks though and they are hurt at the back which means teams have been able to create chances against them. I would be surprised if Brighton are not the latest to do that, although the key to the outcome of the fixture is whether Brighton can show more composure in the final third and score from the chances they will create.

Brighton do not have a good recent record against Leicester City, but again I say they will not have a better opportunity to change that. This looks like a fixture where the first goal will be hugely important considering the confidence of the teams, but Brighton have looked good enough to earn a big result and I think they can do that.

West Brom v Newcastle United Pick: The reports coming out of Newcastle United are extremely concerning for the fans who have seen their team slip into a relegation scrap over the last two months. Steve Bruce and Matt Ritchie had a bust up on the training ground days after the manager blamed Ritchie for not giving the right instructions to his team mates as a substitute in the 1-1 draw with Wolves last weekend.

That failure led directly to the equaliser for Wolves and the report has suggested the players no longer believe in Steve Bruce.

For now the management staff have remained behind Bruce, but injuries are piling up and if the players have downed tools a move is likely to be made to replace Steve Bruce sooner rather than later. The attack looks lightweight when you think the likes of Allan Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron and Callum Wilson are going to be on the sidelines and that leaves Newcastle United vulnerable.

They can't really afford to lose at The Hawthorns on Sunday and open the door to those below them to drag Newcastle United back into the bottom three. We will learn a lot about what the players think of the manager depending on their performance and West Brom have to feel they can take advantage if there is any element of 'downing tools' from the visitors.

Sam Allardyce will feel his side deserved more from the 0-1 defeat to Everton, but they had plenty of luck in their victory over Brighton last week. It may take a bit of fortune to decide the winner of this one too, but West Brom have to be encouraged by recent performances as they have created more opportunities than the likes of Manchester United and Everton despite not winning either game.

In this fixture West Brom may feel their own defensive issues are less likely to be exposed with the injuries Newcastle United are dealing with and Allardyce's team had kept clean sheets in back to back games before the narrow loss to Everton.

The first goal is going to be huge in this game and I think this is going to be a tight fixture with the players knowing exactly what is on the line. However I do feel the West Brom players are perhaps a bit more behind their manager than Newcastle United and it may lead to a victory for The Baggies that just gives them a glimmer of hope of avoiding the drop back into the Championship.

Liverpool v Fulham Pick: Both Fulham and Liverpool were beaten on Thursday by the same 0-1 scoreline and they will be looking to bounce back this weekend. At least Fulham have been in better recent form than Liverpool, but visiting Anfield will still be a test for the relegation threatened West London club.

There will be some encouragement from the fact that Liverpool have not won any of their last 7 home Premier League games and have been beaten in 5 in a row here. The likes of Burnley and Brighton, two fellow relegation rivals of Fulham, have both secured narrow wins at Liverpool over the last two months and Fulham have also been pretty difficult to beat in recent weeks.

A lack of goals is concerning for Scott Parker, but his team will look to make life difficult for a Liverpool team that has struggled for chances let alone goals at Anfield. At some point you would have to feel that Liverpool will get things turned around, but further defensive problems have come out of the 0-1 defeat to Chelsea and Fulham have some pace in the final third which will make them dangerous.

Much will depend on how much Fulham believe they can secure a positive result here- if they believe they are a Premier League club that can survive at this level I do think Fulham will have their opportunities against a Liverpool team that have lost a lot of confidence.

However, if Fulham don't believe in themselves there is every chance Liverpool can get back on track as their top four ambitions look to be slipping.

Liverpool's own confidence has to be in a poor place with the lack of chances they are creating and with their top strikers all looking a little fatigued both physically and emotionally. A big Champions League game is coming up, which may take away some of the focus, and Liverpool do give teams a chance to get at them.

An early home goal could make life very difficult for Fulham if they have to come out and take risks, but the longer the visitors can stay in this the more chance they have of becoming the latest team to earn a positive result at this ground. Fulham's last away Premier League defeat came at Manchester City when they were 2-0 down inside thirty minutes, but they have since earned a point at Tottenham Hotspur and won at Everton.

I would be disappointed for Fulham if they are blown away here even if they were to lose and I think the visitors could cause enough issues for Liverpool to have chances for bonus points this weekend. The lack of goals is the major concern for Scott Parker's team, but they have created enough to believe they can do the same here against a Liverpool team that could be down another couple of defenders on Sunday.

Manchester City v Manchester United Pick: The last time fans were allowed into a Premier League Stadium in Manchester was almost exactly a year ago to this date.

That game at Old Trafford saw Manchester United win the derby 2-0 against Manchester City, but twelve months on the fans are still waiting for a chance to return. The second Manchester derby of this season will be played on the same weekend, but this time it will be played at the Etihad Stadium and Manchester City are trying to stamp their authority on the destination of the Premier League title.

In reality it doesn't matter what the result of the fixture is with Manchester City 14 points clear and with 11 League games left to be played by their nearest rivals. Even a defeat won't be a setback for the Champions elect, but Pep Guardiola will still be demanding a big performance from his players who have won 21 straight games in all competitions.

Both West Ham United and Wolves have scored here over the last week and Manchester United will be encouraged by that. However it is hard to know what to expect from Manchester United who have failed to score in all but one of their Big Six games in the Premier League this season and who created next to nothing in recent away games at West Brom and Crystal Palace.

Defensively Manchester United have at least been better in those big games, but they will have to work very hard to keep this Manchester City team at bay. Teams have created some decent openings against Manchester United and I do think Manchester City have found their rhythm going forward, but the poor recent home record in the Manchester derby has to be a slight concern for the Premier League leaders.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was convinced Manchester United were not in a title race when they topped the table in January, but now the suggestion is they want to push Manchester City all the way. The horse has bolted as far as that is concerned and there is a real concern that Manchester United are slipping into a top four battle thanks to some poor recent results.

There have been elements of fatigue in the play and I think Manchester United are going to find it very hard here. They have won their last 2 visits to the Etihad Stadium which is encouraging, but I would not be surprised if one of these teams failed to score on Sunday with the likelihood being that that team is Manchester United.

The last 4 Manchester derby games have ended with at least one team failing to find the back of the net and this fixture feels like it will follow suit. Manchester United have failed to score against Chelsea (twice), Arsenal (twice), Manchester City (twice) and Liverpool so far this season and the chances are they won't move the scoreboard in this one either.

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: After a long run of poor results the feeling was that Tottenham Hotspur could soon prioritise the Europa League over the Premier League in their bid to return to the Champions League. That may still be the case in the weeks ahead, but back to back Premier League victories while teams above them slipped up have brought Spurs back in contention for a top four finish.

Jose Mourinho will be looking for his team to keep the positive run going after wins over Burnley and Fulham this past week. They were fortunate against Fulham who played well in the second half and had a harsh goal disallowed, but Tottenham Hotspur will be pleased with the clean sheets in both wins too.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 in a row at home and have kept clean sheets in each, while Jose Mourinho has picked strong, attacking line ups in the last couple of League games. That might be a change in policy for the manager as he looks to guide Tottenham Hotspur up the Premier League standings and a similar line up here will cause all sorts of problems for Crystal Palace.

Roy Hodgson will organise his team, but Crystal Palace have not really produced a huge attacking threat. Even then they have produced results thanks to a bit of luck as teams have not punished them defensively as they perhaps should have, but it will be hard to contain Tottenham Hotspur on their current form.

Wilfred Zaha is edging towards a return, but he may not be risked here and so the onus will be on Tottenham Hotspur to get forward and create chances. They should be able to do that at home and Tottenham Hotspur have every chance to build some real momentum towards the North London derby next weekend when hosting the next two games in the Premier League and Europa League.

I expect Tottenham Hotspur to have the better of this game and they can beat Crystal Palace for a sixth time in a row at home in the League. The home team should have learnt from the mistakes of allowing Crystal Palace to stick around and steal a point from when they met earlier this season, and I do think Spurs will have the chances to end up securing a victory by a comfortable margin as they edge a little closer to the Champions League spots in the Premier League.

Chelsea v Everton Pick: Two teams chasing a top four spot meet on Monday and they will believe there will be an opportunity to take advantage of what could likely be a couple of slips from the teams above them.

Both Chelsea and Everton secured valuable 0-1 away wins on Thursday in their last Premier League fixtures and there will be a confidence in the way both are playing to take into this game.

Thomas Tuchel has really gotten Chelsea playing efficiently and they are a team that creates chances, but offers up very little going the other way. You would think a team like Everton could test that having scored at least twice in recent away games at Old Trafford and Anfield, but Carlo Ancelotti's men have perhaps been overachieving in some games and their away record may be much better than it should be.

They can create chances, but Everton have not looked that secure at the back and it is the main reason I would give Chelsea the edge. While the home team have been pretty solid defensively and giving up very little, Everton look like a team that will be 'easier' to break down.

My feeling is that Chelsea may nick the points and another clean sheet can't be ruled out, but Carlo Ancelotti could make this a tactical battle. Everton have not been at their best defensively when facing the best teams in the Premier League and in the last few weeks they have conceded at least three goals against Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur, but Chelsea look like a team that is still learning the attacking side of the game under Tuchel.

Like the game on Thursday, this may not be as high-scoring as some suggest and I think the two managers will be looking to cancel the other team out before moving forward and looking to nick the points.

West Ham United v Leeds United Pick: There has been so much to like about the Leeds United performances in the 2020/21 campaign and Marcelo Bielsa continues to stand by his philosophies.

The system and the style have been eye-pleasing to say the least, but Leeds United don't have the same quality as some of the other teams in the Premier League and that has perhaps contributed to the inconsistent results. There is some serious talent in the squad, but you can't really rely on Leeds United to perform to a high level week after week and that is largely down to average players overachieving.

It sounds harsh, but I think the next step for the development of the club is going to be bringing in some higher quality players than those who took the club out of the Championship. The second season back in the top flight will be a big test for Leeds United without some investment in the squad, but this is a team that can cause problems when finding their best.

They will need that at the London Stadium against a West Ham United team who will feel hard done by in their 2-1 defeat at Manchester City. David Moyes has to be proud of the level of performance they produced at the Etihad Stadium and West Ham United are playing with a confidence that has rarely been seen in this part of London in recent seasons.

Defensively they have been well organised, but West Ham United have found some quality in the final third to make the difference. Jesse Lingard and Michail Antonio have found their groove together and West Ham United should be able to expose Leeds United on the counter attack in this game.

They did that when these two met at Elland Road and I think West Ham United will edge to the points here before big games against Manchester United and Arsenal to come. Overlooking Leeds United would be a big mistake, but David Moyes won't allow that to happen and I think a team that is creating chances without giving too many big ones away can earn the victory on Monday evening.

Manchester City v Southampton Pick: 

MY PICKS: Burnley-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals

Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap

Brighton 0 Asian Handicap

West Brom - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fulham + 1.5 Asian Handicap

Manchester City-Manchester United Both Teams to Score- NO

Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap

Chelsea-Everton Under 2.5 Goals

West Ham United

Fantasy Football GameWeek 27

I had to take two hits last week after missing the deadline ahead of GameWeek 25, and that means the 105 points earned in GameWeek 26 hasn't quite broken the triple digit mark when including the negative points to open the week.

It was still a strong week, although I have yet to really push my Overall Ranking in the way I would have liked and the decisions now become more critical with games running down.

Last week FOMO stopped me picking Richarlison ahead of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and I was punished for that with the Brazilian scoring twice and picking up significant bonus points while DCL did pretty much nothing barring missing a good opportunity in the win over West Brom.

I do still have a couple of Chips under my belt and I also have the second Wild Card to go, but the plan looks pretty simple- I am going to be using my Free Hit Chip in GW29 and that means my next two transfers are really geared towards shaping my team for at least the remainder of the month.

At this stage I am still not sure whether I will be using my Wild Card ahead of GW30, which is right out of the international break, or whether I will wait until GW31. The Triple Captain Chip is seen as a major one, but I always feel it is the least valuable of the three Chips we begin the season with and I still feel there will be at least one good opportunity to use it with Aston Villa's game against Everton and Tottenham Hotspur's game against Southampton to be rescheduled.

There is a small chance that there isn't a DGW left for any team in the Premier League, but that's a very small chance and so the TC Chip is still expected to be maximised.

My transfer is pretty simple this week and that is removing Ross Barkley from the team (of course he will start this week having earned about 20 minutes across the Double GameWeek).

There are some decent midfield options at this price range and I think the decision will come down to a few names that stand out- I didn't think I'd ever admit this, but Jesse Lingard is one name, although mot being able to play in GW28 is putting me off slightly.

Southampton are on the DGW this week, although one of those is at Manchester City, while Mason Mount looks to have won the trust of Thomas Tuchel and has been in very strong form for Chelsea.

If he had returned to the team a little earlier, Diogo Jota could be a difference maker with a home game against Fulham followed by a trip to Wolves, but I do wonder if he will be risked for both fixtures having only just recovered from a long-term injury.

My decision on the Wild Card will very much depend on how the FA Cup Quarter Finals are completed and where the fixtures are likely to be placed in the calendar. I will have further thoughts on that in next week's thread where I will hazard a couple of guesses as to how the Premier League may solve the dates in which to put the fixtures that need to be rescheduled.

That will have a big impact on the Wild Card because it will also mean the chance to potentially use the Triple Captain Chip and it has to be remembered that both cannot be used in the same GameWeek.

The Captain selection is arguably the most difficult part of the week- the Manchester City double makes their assets very appealing, but who can really predict which of the players are going to play twice.

I am very, very tempted to go with Ruben Dias with the two home games to come and the Portuguese international looking like the first name on the Manchester City team sheet these days. However the return of Nathan Ake brings up some issues and you would think that Pep Guardiola will want to give Dias a rest at some point having been involved in the majority of fixtures this season.

The game against Southampton looks a good chance to do that, and that clouds the selection here.

Ilkay Gundogan and Raheem Sterling both were given long rests in the last DGW just passed, but the options at Manchester City are frightening and it is a hard choice, but one that could make a huge difference over the coming week.

Some will feel the single GameWeek players are as good a choice- Harry Kane at home to Crystal Palace could be very intriguing, but I think the focus has to be on the DGW that is going to be played.

Indian Wells Masters Day 1 Tennis Picks (March 6th)

There was a time when the tournament coming up in Miami was considered the unofficial fifth Grand Slam, but that title seems to be taken by the tournament in Indian Wells these days.

Both the ATP and WTA Tours come together for the next month with the back to back North American hard court Masters/Premier Events scheduled to be played. These events are the same length as the Grand Slam tournaments but one of the key differences for the top Seeds is that they are given a Bye through to the Second Round. The big names return to the Tour after taking in very little competitive tennis between the Australian Open and this event beginning.

You have to factor in the conditions in Indian Wells which has regularly been considered one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but the outside factors do make the ball fly through the air. It is something to consider as most of the players are coming into the tournament playing in very differing conditions in Europe (lots of indoor tennis) and in the Middle East where the conditions tend to be that much faster than you will find in the two North American hard court events coming up.


It is something you should be looking at this week and factoring into the selections although the men's tournament have been dominated by the big names as you would expect in recent years. In something of a surprise Roger Federer has been very good in the conditions, while Juan Martin Del Potro is the defending Champion and that suggests the desert air does give players the chance to really hit through the court.

Naomi Osaka won the women's event here in 2018, although the recent winners have been a mixed bag on the WTA side of things. However that is very similar to the way the Grand Slams have been shared out by a number of different names in the last couple of years.


The First Round of the WTA event in Indian Wells begins on Wednesday and the ATP First Round is set to begin on Thursday for a tournament that will take twelve days to complete before the players have to make the move to East Coast and begin the Miami event.

In the last week of the Tennis Picks I added some positive numbers to what has been a very good 2019 season, but I will admit I have had very little success in the month of March over the last few years. It was actually this time last year when I decided to take a break for the entire month and work out a way to just straighten out my criteria for making Picks after what had been a difficult fifteen months.

That has seemingly worked, but this time I want to be in front of the evolution as we begin a new game at a new tournament to see if I can keep the positive numbers coming.


Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Pauline Parmentier: The Indian Wells tournament and the one coming up in Miami are two of the slower hard courts on the Tour and it does feel much like a 'horses for courses' kind of event. This is one of the big events outside of the Grand Slams so motivation for all of the big names will be high, but conditions in the desert on the West Coast of the United States have been difficult for players to deal with, especially in relation to what is considered to be the slowest hard court on the Tour.

The problem for players is balancing out the overall conditions which sees the ball fly off the racquet in Indian Wells and it means a lot of unforced errors can be in play. Players are pushing to hit the ball through a slow court, but timing can be an issue and that is what players will have to face here.

Johanna Konta is a big favourite to beat Pauline Parmentier in the First Round of the WTA draw, but she has not had a memorable time in Indian Wells in the past. Her best run is reaching the Fourth Round in 2016, but Konta has won just one match in her last two visits to this tournament although I would expect her to get the better of her opponent in this one.

There is no doubt that there is room for improvement in the Konta game as she has struggled to reach the heights she did on the hard court in 2016. Her numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons including in her opening matches in 2019, but Konta is still a dangerous player when she can get herself going.

Pauline Parmentier is going to have to really raise her level if she is going to force Konta to have to dig deep and perhaps earn an upset in this one. If the Frenchwoman can put some pressure on Konta there is a chance she can do that, but it has been a difficult 2019 for Parmentier who is 4-6 on the hard courts overall and sees that record drop to 1-5 when she has faced top 100 Ranked opponents.

The serve has been attacked and Parmentier has not really returned as well as she would have liked and that doesn't bode well in a match against someone like Konta who reached the Quarter Final in Acapulco last week. It has been a struggle against the top 100 Ranked opponents Parmentier has faced on the hard courts in the last fifteen months and her numbers reflect that which is why I am leaning towards Konta in not only winning, but covering what is a big number on paper.

In that time Parmentier is 4-17 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and she has failed to cover this number in twelve of those losses. Johanna Konta is 17-3 in the same timespan when playing against someone Ranked outside the top 50 and she has found a way to cover this number in twelve of those wins and I will look for her to break the Parmentier serve enough times to earn a cover here too.


Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There are a number of bright young talents coming through on the WTA Tour and the highest Ranked teenager on the Tour is Dayana Yastremska. The Ukrainian moved into a career high spot of Number 34 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Hua Hin at the end of January/early February and Yastremska has looked very impressive in the matches she has played.

She is going to be a big favourite to see off Daria Gavrilova in the First Round in Indian Wells as the Australian has made a miserable start to 2019. Daria Gavrilova has lost all six matches she has played on the hard courts and those have largely been uncompetitive losses which always knocks the confidence a lot more.

In those six losses, Gavrilova has only managed to win a single set and even getting this number of games would not have been enough to 'win' any of those matches by covering the handicap. The serve has always been a shot that can be attacked by opponents and her numbers have not really dipped on that front, but Gavrilova has struggled on the return of serve and she is winning a lot fewer points than she has been doing.

At some point I would expect Gavrilova to recover her form and start putting some wins on the board, but this could be a tough match for her. Dayana Yastremska has been serving pretty well for the most part, but she is backing it up with some big returning and my only fear for the Ukrainian is that she gets a little bamboozled by the conditions and begins to make a lot more unforced errors as she struggles to control the ball off the strings.

The speed around the court should help Gavrilova use her defensive skills effectively in this First Round match and confusing the youngster or forcing her to go too close to the lines will give her the chance of the upset. However I do think Yastremska will be able to push the Australian back behind the baseline and I am anticipating her getting into a position to force a number of breaks of serve.

Yastremska has been very strong playing opponents Ranked outside the top 20 so far this season and has won eleven of thirteen in that spot. In those eleven wins Yastremska would have covered this mark eight times and I think she will be in a position to do that here against an out of sorts opponent.

MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 42.52 Units (427 Units Staked, + 9.96% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (March 5-7)

We are not too far away from the first international break in the 2019 calendar year as the Euro 2020 Qualifiers begin in their new slot just fifteen months before that tournament gets underway.

Before that break in the middle of March we are going to find out the final eight teams that will compete in both the Champions League and Europa League competitions. The Second Legs of the Last 16 Champions League ties begin three weeks after the First Legs were completed and there are a number of ties that look settled already.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Paris Saint-Germain have big leads going into the four Last 16 Second Legs to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while Real Madrid won in Amsterdam but looked to have entered a crisis since then.

The best of the ties this week could be seeing how Roma get on defending the narrow lead in Porto, but those are two of the weaker teams left in the Champions League and I think the winner is going to be significantly overmatched in the Quarter Final regardless of who they are paired with.


This week we also have the First Legs of the Last 16 ties in the Europa League as teams chase a second entry point into the Champions League. The competition looks to be developing nicely with some decent teams involved and the majority of the favourites should be able to work their way through the ties they have been given.

Arsenal and Chelsea will be really keen to make sure they have a second chance into the Champions League which they are balancing with a strong effort to finish in the top four in the Premier League.


Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of people in England have been looking at the Tottenham Hotspur stumbles in the last two weeks and been left to shake their head at a 'Spursy' turn of events for the club.

They have fallen off the Premier League title race thanks to back to back defeats at Burnley and Chelsea, while the home draw in the North London derby may have the fans looking over their shoulders rather than at trying to scale the top of the mountain in the Premier League.

It would be the most 'Spursy' of things if Tottenham Hotspur were to blow a 3-0 lead in the Champions League Last 16 on Tuesday and fail to make it through to the Quarter Final of the competition for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Even the defeat to Juventus as the favourites in the Last 16 Second Leg last season would be considered a far better loss than this one if Tottenham Hotspur were to go out.

While some would not be surprised if it happened, I have to admit I would be because they are facing an opponent going through arguably an even stickier patch than themselves.

Borussia Dortmund are not exactly firing on all cylinders with a single win from their last 7 in all competitions and in that time they have exited the German Cup, blown a big lead in the Bundesliga and capitulated in the final ten minutes at Wembley Stadium in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie.

At home Borussia Dortmund continue to score goals, but defensively they have looked a mess and it is hard to think they can earn a fourth consecutive clean sheet in the Champions League having finished with one in all of their Group Stage matches. That inability may prove to be the fatal blow on the day to their chances of progressing, but Dortmund have been showing a real attacking intent and face a Tottenham Hotspur team that have conceded twice in 4 away games in a row and lost every one of those.

In the Group Stage Borussia Dortmund also beat Monaco 3-0 and Atletico Madrid 4-0 so the fans will be fully behind their team to win this Second Leg and I think they can do that at odds against.

My only concern for Dortmund winning this Leg is that they may end up chasing the tie on aggregate late into the second half and could leave themselves vulnerable to a Tottenham Hotspur counter attack. If it is a narrow lead going into the final twenty minutes I would be worried about the backdoor recovery from Tottenham Hotspur if they are able to exploit the spaces that Dortmund would have to leave behind.

You've got to remember if Tottenham Hotspur score one, Borussia Dortmund will have to score five to progress and it could play into the way the game ends.

However on current form I have to think Spurs will just want to get through by hook or by crook and it may mean a nervy night in Germany. I dread to think how the fans and players will be feeling if they fall 2-0 behind, but at some point I think Tottenham Hotspur will get the goal to effectively end the tie although Borussia Dortmund may be able to record a win for the home fans on the evening.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: Losing the home tie is a big blow for the team that was considered a big underdog when the draw was made for the Champions League Second Round, but Ajax will feel they showed enough in the First Leg to believe they can cause problems for Real Madrid here.

They might be getting Real Madrid at a vulnerable time too as the home team have lost 3 in a row in front of their fans who are clearly very unhappy with how things are going in the Spanish capital. Back to back home defeats to Barcelona have angered and embarrassed the club and Real Madrid have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games here which will give Ajax some confidence.

This young Ajax team have been able to go to places like Lisbon and Munich and expressed themselves very well and they clearly have goals in the side. The chances created in the First Leg will have encouraged the Ajax players, while the absence of Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid makes an already shaky defence that much weaker.

Keeping Real Madrid out at the other end may be the biggest challenge in front of Ajax who had not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games in all competitions before the stunning 0-3 win in Rotterdam against Feyenoord last week. Ajax have also conceded in 12 of their last 13 away Champions League games so their best bet to win here is to try and outscore Real Madrid and see if away goals can earn their place in the Quarter Final in huge upset fashion.

It is a big ask of Ajax who could be picked off by Real Madrid if they begin chasing the game, but they will be confident against a home team that will know the fans are ready to get on their backs if they are not performing. Real Madrid don't lose too many games at home in the Champions League though and I think Ajax may ultimately come up a little short not for the lack of trying.

The attacking intentions of the visitors should at least contribute to a good game of football and I do think we will see goals on Tuesday. Backing Real Madrid at short odds in a fixture they don't have to win to go through seems a poor decision, but they have got goals in the side while they are conceding plenty too.

It wouldn't surprise me if Real Madrid hit Ajax with a sucker punch late on to win this game, but I expect Ajax to play their part here. They have scored at Benfica and Bayern Munich in the Group Stage and Real Madrid are missing leader Sergio Ramos so I do think the visitors will get at least one, while also fancying Real Madrid to score on the day.

I can see a situation where a late goal contributes to this fixture producing at least four goals on the night and that is going to be my selection from this Second Leg. A 3-1 Real Madrid win or a 2-2 draw really wouldn't shock me here and I will back goals to be shared out by two teams who may be happier going forward than defending on the night.


Paris Saint-Germain v Manchester United Pick: In the last couple of years we have seen some astonishing comebacks in the European Knock Out Rounds either in the Qualifiers or the final stages of those competitions.

There have been some memorable comebacks in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds too and the most notable may be the Paris Saint-Germain capitulation at the Nou Camp when they somehow blew a four game lead from the First Leg.

That was only two years ago, but the importance of that fixture was that Barcelona were at home in the Second Leg. Those big comebacks have been made by teams that have hosted the Second Leg and we have yet to see a team win by a wide margin away from home and blow the tie in front of their home fans.

Paris Saint-Germain did make history in the defeat to Barcelona by becoming the first team in European Cup history to lose a tie in which they had a four goal lead after the First Leg. That is the kind of thing that will still worry the fans despite the big win at Old Trafford as they look to avoid making history for a negative reason for the second time in three seasons.

However this time they are not facing a really good team like Barcelona and an injury hit Manchester United don't look to have the quality they need to overturn the events from the First Leg. Paul Pogba's suspension adds to the issues and a likely midfield of Scott McTominay, Fred and Andreas Pereira won't be worrying the Paris Saint-Germain players too much, if at all.

It is up to Paris Saint-Germain to make sure Manchester United are offered no encouragement though and they have all the advantages in this one as far as I am concerned. Home form has been good in recent weeks and the return of Thomas Meunier and potentially Edinson Cavani only makes them stronger than the First Leg when I thought they were well worth their win on the day.

Manchester United will employ the counter attack which has seen them win 8 away games in a row in all competitions and score two or more in 6 of those wins, but the absences are just racking up. Paul Pogba's loss will be huge in the midfield and I think Paris Saint-Germain will control the ball and ultimately put enough quality together in the final third to win this game and potentially make a statement to the rest of the contenders in the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool comfortably in the Group Stage here under a lot of pressure and they have won big games against some of the top names in European Football in the last couple of years here.

I would love to be very much wrong with my pick for this fixture, but I can't help seeing anything but another comfortable win for Paris Saint-Germain who can do it by two or more goals on the night.


Porto v Roma Pick: The tie that stands out the most in the Champions League this week as being the one most on a knife edge clearly comes from Porto where the home team will host Roma 1-2 down from the First Leg. The late away goal earned by Porto could be critical to the outcome of the Last 16 tie where the winner is going to be arguably the most sought after opponent from those left in the draw.

That is no disrespect to Porto or Roma, but neither club looks capable of going on and winning the Champions League and there are going to be some huge names left in the Quarter Final stage.

Neither will actually care about that ahead of the Second Leg of this Last 16 tie though and I think it is a very close one to call. Porto have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games at home including all 3 in the Group Stage, while Roma have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition including all 3 in the Knock Out Rounds last season.

That may indicate it is not as close as I am suggesting, but Roma are a team that have scored plenty of away goals of late and I do think they can erase the away goal conceded in the Italian capital last month. With that in mind Porto will have to score at least twice to force Extra Time, but they could also be vulnerable to the counter attack and I do think Roma can cause plenty of issues for the home team to deal with.

The return of Moussa Marega is very important for Porto considering he scored five goals in the Group Stage of the Champions League and this really feels like it could be a game filled with goals. No matter who scores first it is going to potentially really open up this Second Leg and I think both teams are capable of scoring at least once.

Picking a winner on the night isn't easy even if I am leaning towards the home team to do it, but my overriding feeling is that at least three goals will be shared out on the night.

10 of the last 11 Roma Champions League games have seen at least three goals shared out, while it has happened in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in this competition. At the same time the last 5 Porto Champions League games have featured three or more goals, and 6 of their last 7 at home in the competition have done the same.

The situation from the First Leg leaves this potentially becoming an open Second Leg too and both clubs have shown they can score goals as well as being vulnerable at the back and seeing three or more goals looks the most likely outcome.


Rennes v Arsenal Pick: The draw for the Europa League gave both London based clubs a First Leg at home and the decision was made by UEFA that they had to switch one of the ties around.

That tie was the one between Rennes and Arsenal who will now meet in the First Leg in France rather than in North London.

It might be ideal for Rennes who have been given a weekend off by the French FA to prepare for this fixture. They will know the Home Leg is very important to give them a chance to progress to the Quarter Final despite beating Real Betis 1-3 in Spain in the last Round, and they could be facing Arsenal at a very good time.

The Gunners are in decent form, but this game is the meat in a Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United sandwich for them and Arsenal are firmly in the top four race to believe those fixtures are very important to them. With a Home Leg to come next week, Arsenal might have a much changed team starting this fixture for them and it could give Rennes an opportunity for a surprise result.

It certainly makes Arsenal feel a short price at close to odds on to win here with that Manchester United game likely to in their minds. Rennes have been good at home this season too and they score enough goals to make me believe a vulnerable Arsenal backline is going to be tested here.

Arsenal have good attacking players though and Rennes have conceded in 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League. It should mean the visitors have their chances here too and I think the best play may be backing at least three goals to be shared out.

Rennes have scored two or more goals in 5 straight at home in all competitions, but have only kept a couple of clean sheets in that time. With their best chances of earning a place coming from having a First Leg lead I expect Rennes to take some risks and I feel the game could come together to be one of the entertaining ones from the First Legs taking place.


Sevilla v Slavia Prague Pick: There is no doubt that Sevilla have fallen off a cliff when it comes to their form in Spain, but this is a club that has a real affiliation with the Europa League and the two wins over Lazio in the Last 32 underlines their status as one of the favourites to win the competition this season too.

Five Europa League wins in thirteen years is an incredible achievement and it is beginning to look like Sevilla's best route back into the Champions League. Sevilla have been dominant at home in Europe, especially at the Europa League level, and they will believe that form can take them through to the Final in Baku in May.

In this season's competition Sevilla have won all 7 home Europa League games and 6 of those have come by at least a two goal margin. In recent weeks they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in all competitions and Sevilla have scored at least twice in each of those games which suggests they could have too much firepower for their visitors on Thursday.

Slavia Prague have to be respected as the leaders of the Czech top flight and after working their way through to the Last 16. This is their best run in any European competition for a number of years, but I can't ignore the fact that Slavia Prague have had their issues away from home in Europe already this season.

In fact Slavia Prague have lost 3 of their 5 away European ties in the 2018/19 season and 2 of the defeats suffered have come by two goal margins.

I do think that is the most likely outcome of the First Leg which will put Sevilla in control of the tie and I will back the Spaniards to cover the Asian Handicap.


Zenit St Petersburg v Villarreal Pick: Balancing out European and domestic competitions can be a real challenge for clubs who have big goals to achieve in both.

In this situation I do feel that both Zenit St Petersburg and Villarreal may actually feel the Europa League could be a long-term distraction with their main ambitions being successes domestically.

For Zenit St Petersburg the final 12 games in the Russian Premier League will be all about trying to win a first League title since 2015. They are leading the way at the moment and that is their favoured avenue back into the Champions League.

It is a slightly different story for Villarreal who are battling to avoid relegation in the Spanish Primera Division and winning the Europa League won't make up for playing outside the top flight next season.

With that said I do think both clubs will be motivated to reach the Quarter Final and they have both been playing some of their better football in the Europa League. Zenit St Petersburg have a really strong record here in the last few years in Europe and they go into this one having won all 11 of their last 12 home games in the Europa League including all 6 played here this season.

Villarreal have yet to be beaten in the Europa League despite their poor domestic form and they did win at Sporting Lisbon last month. However Villarreal had to ride their luck to earn a 3-3 draw in Spartak Moscow in the Group Stage and this may feel like another step up for them.

I imagine it is going to be a tight First Leg and I do think all will be to play for when they meet again in Spain next week. However I have to give the slight edge to a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been very strong at home all season and who are facing a Villarreal side that have to be lacking some confidence despite forging a path through to the Last 16.

You can find odds against quotes backing the Russian leaders to have a lead to take into the Second Leg and that looks the way to go.


Chelsea v Club Brugge Pick: We are not at the stage of the season when clubs in Western Europe begin to prioritise the Europa League over domestic commitments, but the carrot of a place in the Champions League Group Stage for the winner of the competition has certainly made it a more appealing tournament.

For the likes of Chelsea they will want to keep two avenues back into the Champions League open for as long as possible and this looks to be a tie they can win, although the Second Leg will be problematic in terms of weather conditions and travel.

It makes the First Leg that much more important for Chelsea who will want to take a healthy lead to the Ukraine and have every chance of doing that. For all the negative stories around Stamford Bridge there is still a real belief that Chelsea can be very good at home and 7 wins from 8 games in all competitions underlines that point.

Chelsea have scored plenty of goals in those games and they have also won all 4 Europa League games at Stamford Bridge despite the rotation made to the starting eleven. The side have scored at least three goals in their last 3 here in the Europa League and I do think Maurizio Sarri will be looking to take a strong advantage to Kiev when he can afford to give a couple of key players more of a rest.

Dynamo Kiev beat Olympiacos in the Last 32 and they are not looking to make up the numbers but instead will want to replicate what other Eastern European clubs have done in the recent past in the Europa League. The last few years have seen Spanish clubs dominate, but Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk have won the Europa League in the last twelve years and the chance to get back into the Champions League Group Stage should be a real inspiration for the visitors.

They have come out of their Winter Break in good form and Dynamo Kiev have lost just 1 of their 6 away European ties this season. Dynamo Kiev have scored in each of those away ties so they could be dangerous for Chelsea on Thursday, but my feeling is that a strong team is going to be selected by the home club and they can head into the Second Leg with a decent lead.

With the goals being scored at home, Chelsea can win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one, although I would not be surprised if Dynamo Kiev give themselves some hope by producing an away goal.

MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund @ 2.05 Bet Fred
Real Madrid-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Rennes-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor