Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 15th February)

The news about Rafael Nadal has to be considered a disappointment after he confirmed that he would not be healthy enough to play in Doha as he was hoping.

There is still a desire to head to Indian Wells as he takes good care of his body and makes sure he is ready to compete when the clay court season rolls around in April. However, it only strengthens the feeling that this may be his last year on the Tour and that really begin the passing of the torch to the next generation, if we have not already begun to see that happening.

Finding another Rafael Nadal is going to be as difficult as finding another Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic, but the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz can take the Tour forward. Both are already Grand Slam Champions and the hope amongst fans is that they can push each other to great heights in the years ahead.

The WTA tournament in Doha has reached the Quarter Final Round and the three ATP tournaments are effectively a day behind with their own Quarter Final line up completed on Thursday and played on Friday.

Like many Middle East tournaments, the Finals are played on Saturday rather than Sunday and that is the case in Doha and expected to be the case in Dubai when the WTA Tour pitches up there next.

The ATP tournament in Doha will begin next week before the Dubai tournament is next up, although the names involved are perhaps not the elite list we have come to expect.

Below are the selections from the Quarter Final matches to be played in Doha- nothing in Rotterdam appealed as the Second Round is concluded and any selections from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach from the Second Round matches to be played there on Thursday will be added on the day.

Danielle Collins - 1.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: A tough First Round win in the Qualifiers aside, Danielle Collins has continued to play at a high level in Doha and she has four matches in a row in straight sets to reach the Quarter Final.

Despite the fast court conditions at the tournament, Danielle Collins will know she needs to be a bit more effective behind serve if she is going to move into the final four.

No one should be too concerned about the performances behind the first serve, but Collins will not want to allow Anastasia Pavyluchenkova to have too many looks at the second serve. The aggressive American has been confident on the return in the tournament and it will be a match that Collins can feel she can win as long as she serves as she can.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova snapped a losing run to Marketa Vondrousova in the Third Round and will be looking to do the same in this Quarter Final. All three previous matches have ended in defeat against Danielle Collins and the Russian has not been effective enough on the return of serve.

She will go for her big shots and that should mean some success for Pavlyuchenkova when she is able to set her feet, but the aggression of Danielle Collins means there will be plenty of pace coming her way too.

The Russian player has been very good on the return in this tournament, but her own serve has not been working as well as it could and it is Danielle Collins who can progress.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: She may have benefited from a walkover in the Third Round, but Naomi Osaka has won back to back matches in Doha prior to that. This is the first time she has managed to do that in a hard court tournament since the Miami Masters back in March 2022, although of course Naomi Osaka has had a year out from competitive tennis.

One of the few matches played in 2024 was against Karolina Pliskova and Naomi Osaka was beaten in a very tight, competitive match.

She will be hoping to turn that result around as she did against Caroline Garcia and there has to be an accumulated fatigue in play working against Pliskova.

After winning the title in Cluj on Sunday, Karolina Pliskova was playing in Doha on Monday and she has won a match on each of the last three days to reach another Quarter Final. Confidence will have been given a real boost by the fight and quality of tennis she has produced, but Karolina Pliskova has spent over six hours on the court and has had to come from a set down twice.

She should have been beaten in the Third Round, but Linda Noskova struggled to put away her compatriot when serving for the match. That can happen to younger players trying to beat a veteran from the same country, but Karolina Pliskova is facing someone who is motivated to show they belong back with the elite on the WTA Tour and someone who will want to earn a measure of revenge for a tight defeat.

Take nothing away from the run Karolina Pliskova is on, but it is tough to sustain the wins when playing on the tight margins. The second serve is likely going to be attacked by Naomi Osaka and it may be tough for Pliskova to really get a good feeling in the return.

It could be tight again with Osaka still getting up to speed, but she should be the physically fresher player and that may show up in this Quarter Final.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: The Australian Open ended a little prematurely as far as Carlos Alcaraz would be concerned, but he has decided to take in the South American Golden Swing for a second year in a row.

He had a very successful time in South America twelve months ago and Carlos Alcaraz will be defending his title in Buenos Aires.

The move from the hard courts to the clay courts should not be a massive issue for someone like Alcaraz, but he will have to deal with a home player in the Second Round. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won a Challenger title on the clay and is very much at home on the red dirt, while he has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in Buenos Aires.

This will mean Carabelli is well adjusted to the conditions and he will have to try and use that to his advantage against one of the best players on the Tour.

He has won two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in this tournament, although the margins were slim, and it is a big ask for Camilo Ugo Carabelli to raise his level for long enough to beat someone like Carlos Alcaraz.

The Spaniard is likely going to put the Carabelli serve under pressure throughout this Second Round match and he should have the qualities to find the breaks of serve to cover this relatively wide handicap mark.

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 games v Luciano Darderi: His toughest win in Cordoba was against Sebastian Baez, but Luciano Darderi was able to work his way past the World Number 30 and eventually won the title.

He earned a Special Entry into the Buenos Aires event and Darderi was a crushing winner in the First Round to keep the positive momentum going.

That title win last week has pushed Luciano Darderi into a new career high World Ranking mark and the confidence is clearly not going to be an issue for him.

Sebastian Baez will be playing with revenge on his mind- he beat Darderi in Cordoba in 2023 before losing in the Quarter Final last week. The First Round win was comfortable to earn a rematch with the Italian and Sebastian Baez will feel a stronger start should put him in a position to turn the result around.

The serve let him down last week, but Sebastian Baez should be the slightly fresher player in this Second Round match and he is capable of better than what he showed in the loss. Putting that together here and perhaps being a little more clinical on the Break Points will turn the result around and he can get the better of Luciano Darderi, even at this confident stage of his career.

MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 6th)

The late finishes at the ATP events in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires has meant needing to wait for the Semi Final markets to be put together and that means I have had to wait to put my Semi Final Picks together.

The Final in Doha looks a good one on paper, but I can't really pick a winner between Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, two former multiple time Grand Slam Champions who have made a very strong start to 2021. That is particularly the case for Muguruza who had Match Points to beat Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open, form that has been franked by the run Osaka had to the title in Melbourne.

After a slow start and some frustrations, the last two days have turned around the form on the selections and it has justified my belief that the system to identify Picks is not a major issue. Adjustments always need to be made and slight tweaks, but ultimately my feeling was that there was more bad luck than bad identification that was causing the start to the 2021 season.

Too many times the inches had just gone against those players I had picked, but it happens over the course of a long Tour and I think the key was to remain largely grounded. If Borna Coric had taken the multiple Break Points he had created in the second set against Kei Nishikori it could have been a clean sweep on Friday, but I am always happy when a positive outcome is seen at the end of the day.

As I have mentioned, the lack of time between the completion of the Quarter Final matches and the start of the Semi Final matches means I will not have full analysis written down below.

Instead you can see my selections for the day with the tournaments winding down before moving onto five new spots next week.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-16, - 0.66 Units (68 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 16th)

It might have been a busy day on Friday around the four tournaments that are being played this week, but I could only find a couple of matches that I felt comfortable in.

That wasn't a bad decision as both Daniil Medvedev and Gael Monfils won their Quarter Final matches in Rotterdam without dropping a set and that continues what should be another winning week to put into the books. There are still two days of Tennis to be played to conclude the week and I have no intention of giving anything back after a strong week.

You can see the Picks from the matches scheduled for Saturday below.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: In the last couple of weeks Daniil Medvedev has been a very strong player to back and he has worked out for me with a number of winning selections behind the young Russian. This isn't only a two week hot streak as Medvedev has been in strong form throughout the first six weeks of the 2019 season which has seen him play in two Finals already and looking to make a third this week.

He was a dominant winner over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Quarter Final and Medvedev has deserved to make his way through the Rotterdam draw after winning the title in Sofia. Unlike some other players, Medvedev has not really had an easy path through the last couple of weeks which underlines how well he is playing.

The numbers continue to back that up as Medvedev is looking after serve effectively, while the returning numbers are very strong. In the last week Medvedev has been even stronger on the return than he has been in 2019 overall, and that makes it very dangerous for opponents to face Medvedev when he is seeing the ball like a beach ball at the moment.

So far in Rotterdam Medvedev has broken at just under 38% of the games he has been returning and that is very impressive on the indoor hard courts. Gael Monfils will feel he can challenge Medvedev with the way he has been serving this week, but the overall hold percentage is down to 81% compared with his 84% hold percentage for 2019 on the hard courts.

The Frenchman has responded with some very strong returning to make up for the service slips, but this is a step up from the last two Rounds. It is also the second time in two weeks that Monfils and Medvedev are playing each other and it was Medvedev who I picked to win their match in Sofia and I think he can frank that form as he did when beating Tsonga for the second time in 2019 on Friday.

Daniil Medvedev dominated the return of serve in Sofia and as well as Monfils is playing this week, Medvedev is playing a little better. I think he can use the returning powers he has produced for the season to get the better of Monfils in this one and I think he edges him out with a tough win here and I think Medvedev covers against Monfils again.

He is being asked to cover one more game than he was last week in Sofia, but Medvedev is playing well enough to do that.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: The two tournaments being played in the Middle East in Doha and Dubai on the WTA Tour do bring in some of the very best players on the Tour to these events. With that in mind the players who reach the Final at the these tournaments tend to have come through some tough matches and that is the case for Elise Mertens and Simona Halep who play each other for the title on Saturday.

Both players have had a couple of tough wins and both were forced to win a deciding set in the Semi Final on Friday. Out of the two matches Simona Halep had to invest more emotional exertions to turn her Semi Final against Elina Svitolina back in her favour having won the final five games in a row to narrowly edge out the Ukrainian.

Elise Mertens did drop the second set in her win over Angelique Kerber, but she won the final set 6-1. However the potential fatigue factor is balanced out by Halep having played the first Semi Final and the Romanian has dominated Mertens in their two previous matches, although both have come on Halep's favoured clay courts.

The feeling in this one is that both players are going to be heavily reliant on their strong returns of serve to put themselves in a position to win the title. Neither has a dominant serve and both Halep and Mertens have seen that side of their game being attacked and I do think the way the two players have been returning will see a number of break points in this one.

In this tournament the edge has to be given to Mertens for the way she has been returning, but she has been a little fortunate at times as opponents have not taken the chances they have created. She can't expect Halep to be that generous considering the former World Number 1 has won 47% of return points played this week and she has also dominated the Mertens serve by winning 57% of points against it in the two matches between these players.

Elise Mertens has been returning very well too which will give her a chance to cover this number of games in this Final. However I think the match up with Halep is yet to be one that Mertens enjoys and her overall hard court numbers have been a little better than average in the last couple of years.

This week still feels like an outlier in terms of her overall hard court ability and I think Halep can break down the Mertens game and cover this number too.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-7, + 15.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 34.39% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 14th)

On Valentine's Day we move into the Second Round of the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Doha event will be into the Quarter Final Round as those tournaments in the Middle East finish on Saturday rather than Sunday,

It has been a busier week than expected with a number of matches fitting the criteria I have just adjusted over the last nine months and the results have been very rewarding in that time. This time twelve months ago it was another season that had started poorly after back to back poor seasons making Tennis Picks.

Prior to that I had a number of winning years in succession, but I hadn't made the adjustments while things were going well and was punished for it. Taking the time away from making Picks last March was a key moment for me to evolve and the results came after that as I went through a couple of months of trial and error with the selections.

This has been another strong week and I have to be pleased that I have had all winning weeks to open the 2019 season after a very good end to 2018 made sure that season ended with a positive record. There is still some work to do to make sure this week follows suit, although I do recognise in a long season there are going to be some downward moments and trying to avoid a prolonged negative run is always the key in an eleven month season.


The Second Round matches in the ATP events being played this week tend to be split over Wednesday and Thursday so the the rest of the Quarter Final line up will be put together during the course of the day. In Doha the WTA event will have the Quarter Final matches set to be played on Thursday after a very busy start to the week and you can read my analysis of some of the Picks and see the full selection from the day below.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: Any time a player is about to play their first match on a new surface you do have to wonder how they are going to feel about making the adjustment from one surface to another and whether they will be comfortable doing that. For someone like Dominic Thiem I have to believe the move off the hard courts and onto the clay courts is a time that he really looks forward to and to the extent that he would rather play on the Golden Swing in South America than the indoor hard court tournaments that take place in Europe.

The Austrian has actually won his first clay court event played in each of the last three seasons and that includes two titles in Buenos Aires so I am not going to worry about Thiem too much. Outside of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal I think Thiem has been the best clay courter in the world for the last couple of years and he is a very tough customer to knock off on this surface.

On the clay most people do have their service numbers knocked, but Thiem has improved his hold percentage on the surface in each of the last three seasons. It has always been relatively strong to be honest, but in 2018 he ticked that percentage up to 85% from just under 84% and Thiem is unlikely to be threatened too much by the return of Maximilian Marterer.

Marterer has won a match in the main draw in Buenos Aires having lost in the First Round in Cordoba and he really came to the fore with his run to the French Open Fourth Round last year before he was beaten in straight sets by Rafael Nadal. The German has played his best tennis on the clay courts but his numbers show a hold percentage that is significantly down on what Thiem has produced and many of those matches to influence those numbers have come below the main ATP level.

The real difference between the two players has been the pressure they have been able to exert from the return of serve. Marterer has a break percentage of sub-20%, but Thiem is right up there with some of the most impactful returners on the clay courts as he has broken serve at 30% over the last two years as he has moved to a level behind the elite clay courters like Nadal and Djokovic.

It also has not be noted that Marterer's hold number falls to 68% on the clay courts when he has faced top 50 Ranked opponents and that is despite coming away with a 3-5 record from those eight career matches. I expect Dominic Thiem to need a little time to remind him of the feel of being on a clay court, but once he does that I think the return of serve is going to be the key for him to cover a big number against an opponent who simply may not offer enough resistance to Thiem's own serve to stay with him.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This was never going to be a match in which I was going to be backing someone because I thought the layers would potentially over-rate Pablo Cuevas from the number I had for him. Imagine my surprise to see that the Uruguayan is actually laying fewer games than I had predicted for this Second Round match in Buenos Aires and he has an excellent chance of beating Joao Sousa on Thursday.

It is something of a surprise to see Sousa over in South America for the clay court swing considering he has a pretty decent indoor hard court record. Usually this Golden Swing has not been a part of his schedule although he did take it in in 2017 when reaching the Quarter Final in Buenos Aires and then the Semi Final in Sao Paolo.

Joao Sousa has beaten the Cordoba Champion in the First Round which will give him a boost in confidence, but the level goes up another notch here when you have to imagine Juan Ignacio Londero was perhaps a little fatigued physically and emotionally. The Portuguese player does produce some steady numbers on the clay courts, but he will need to be better than that to down Cuevas who loves playing on the South American clay courts.

He reached the Semi Final in Cordoba last week before having to play two matches in one day to make the Final and it was not a big surprise that Cuevas was unable to beat Guido Pella who had been resting. However he produced a solid week there and his record on the clay courts shows a player who has a strong serve and can do enough on the return to beat those players further down the Rankings.

The Cuevas serve has been working very effectively in the small sample of 2019 matches, but in general he has a hold percentage in the low-80s in recent seasons compared with Sousa's in the mid-70s. It might not look a big difference but tennis is all about very small margins and with a similar level of returns I do think Cuevas could have easily been favoured to cover at least one more game in this handicap.

Some will point to Sousa's 3-2 lead on the head to head, but their only two matches on the clay courts have both resulted in wins for Cuevas. In both of those clay court matches Cuevas has dominated with a 94% hold advantage compared with Sousa's 50% mark although those were played in 2014 and 2017.

Both were in Europe though where Cuevas has not been as comfortable as he has on his own continent and I think he is going to be the stronger player in this one. The serving should give him the advantage through much of the match and he can cover this number in a win over a solid, but not spectacular clay courter in Joao Sousa.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: The early weeks of the 2019 season have been all or nothing from Angelique Kerber on the hard courts. She has either won her matches very easily or she has been beaten without putting up much of a fight and that continued in her opening match in Doha when Kerber was able to beat Anett Kontaveit 6-1, 7-6.

The German now has a 5-2 record on the hard courts in 2019 and all five wins have come by a margin of five or more games while both losses have seen Kerber fail to win more than five games.

Over the years Kerber has produced some of her best tennis on the hard courts, but she is a player whose serve can be vulnerable which leaves her open to the heavy losses she has suffered on the surface. What has kept Kerber very competitive is her returning ability and that is going to be key for her when she faces Barbora Strycova in this Quarter Final.

Angelique Kerber has dominated Strycova in their head to head matches and she has won all six matches played on the hard courts. The last of those came twelve months ago in Dubai and Kerber has dominated the Strycova serve in those previous games which has put her in a position to not only win matches, but win matches by a convincing margin.

The opening of the 2019 season has been mixed for Strycova on the hard courts in terms of results and you can't read a lot into her numbers because of the way her draws have panned out. Here in Doha she has beaten a local player who received a Wild Card into the main draw and then was victorious over Anna Blinkova in three sets despite winning both of her sets without losing a game.

Erratic form has been a feature of Barbora Strycova's play since she reached her best World Ranking of Number 16 a little over two years ago. Last year she had a mixed record on the hard courts as Strycova struggled to get enough out of her return of serve and I think that could be a potential problem for her in this one despite facing a relatively weak serve from Kerber.

Barbora Strycova also had a poor 0-6 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018. In those matches her numbers took a significant decline in terms of percentage of points won behind the first serve, second serve and return of serve and I do think Kerber is going to be the player who finds more break points in this Quarter Final.

With the record that Strycova has against Kerber I think the latter is going to be good enough to cover this number in a victory.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-4, + 12.60 Units (30 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (February 9th)

The tournaments are being played in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Memphis for the ATP Tour, while the big event on the WTA Tour comes from St Petersburg.

Last week was a disappointment after a strong start for the picks, but I am hoping for more positive consistency in the next week. I didn't make any picks from a Monday that didn't feature any matches that I felt I had a good read of, but Tuesday has a few more options with those tournaments mentioned really getting up and running.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: One of the more intriguing matches in the First Round in Rotterdam, on paper at least, features Gael Monfils taking on the Qualifier Ernests Gulbis. It is strange to see Gulbis needing to come through Qualifiers again but he has dropped down to Number 80 in the World Rankings after a really disappointing 2015 season.

That came on the heels of two season on the Tour where Gulbis had won 73 matches for the loss of 38, but it looks like 2016 is going to be another difficult one for the Latvian. He has had at least two really disappointing losses in early Qualifiers, while last week a returning Richard Gasquet was barely threatened in a comfortable two set win against Gulbis on the indoor courts of Montpellier.

Montpellier proved to be a disappointment for Gael Monfils too with an early loss in the draw and I do think he has underachieved in his career. There are little signs the athleticism is deteriorating in his thirtieth year, but the Frenchman hasn't ever been able to get the balance between entertaining and winning and that has to be a disappointment for those who thought he was destined for the very top of the men's game.

Monfils is a solid indoor hard court player though because he can get enough balls back in play through his return while having a pretty big serve himself. He isn't really someone I trust to win these tournaments because of his lack of consistency through his career, but Monfils has the game to frustrate someone like Gulbis and I do expect him to win this one.

There is no doubt that Monfils can make life difficult at times and Gulbis has a decent first serve which can offer him some cheap points. However, I also think the Latvian can see his game break down, especially from the forehand wing and I think Monfils will be able to come through with a 76, 64 win in this First Round match.


Renzo Olivo + 2.5 games v Facunda Bagnis: It might be a strange situation for Facunda Bagnis having to come through the Qualifiers while his lower Ranked opponent received a Wild Card into the main draw. However Renzo Olivo earned that spot with a strong showing in Quito last week and I do think the younger Argentinian in this First Round match has enough upside to make use of the games being given to him.

There is plenty to like about the Olivo game if he can maintain that form through the course of the season, but I think the second serve remains an issue. He did play well in Quito where the conditions should be a lot quicker than they will be in Buenos Aires and backing up those weeks on the Tour is tough for a player that is Number 151 in the World Rankings.

Olivo also has to get through the fact he has lost four of five against Bagnis who has been dominating at the Challenger level which is where both of these players generally ply their trade. My concern is also the long week for Olivo has perhaps sapped some energy for his home ATP tournament, both physically and emotionally having reached the later stages after coming through Qualifiers.

Even with that in mind, I think Olivo should have been given some confidence from his performance and he can really give Bagnis a challenge in this one. I am guessing Bagnis is a strong favourite having won back to back Challenger events on the clay courts last month, but Olivo has played well at the Australian Open and in Quito and I like his chances of keeping this competitive even if he falls short of going through to the Second Round.

I actually think Olivo has a good chance of building on last week, but I will take the games as an insurance for that feeling.


Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta:  I am a big Dominic Thiem fan and the clay courts have proven to be his most effective surface in his career so far which means the South American Golden Swing could be a big time for him. His start to 2016 has been a little hit and miss and he is playing an opponent that has already got some clay court tennis beneath his feet having played in Quito, but I still like Thiem's chances in the contest.

There is no doubting that Pablo Carreno Busta is very confident on the clay courts himself, but he can be a little erratic with his overall game and that won't cut it against a player of Thiem's quality. The first serve is decent, but Carreno Busta's second serve can become a weakness in pressurised situations.

The Spaniard did play well in Quito to reach the Quarter Final when he was downed in a final set decider by eventual Runner Up Thomaz Bellucci. However, Carreno Busta has to be disappointed he has not had a bigger impact on the main Tour barring a couple of really good performances against some big name players.

Carreno Busta actually has a losing record on the clay courts on the main Tour and I think Thiem is definitely the more capable player. My one concern will be the focus in playing his first match on the clay courts in 2016, but I think Thiem has the service edge and should win the extended rallies off the ground which will lead to a 75, 64 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Renzo Olivo + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 11-13, - 6.74 Units (48 Units Staked, - 14.04% Yield)

Season 2016: - 34.24 Units (272 Units Staked, - 12.59% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 16th)

I think over the last eighteen months, it has been the outright picks that have really given my tennis season a tough time as trying to recover those misses, but Ivo Karlovic moved into the Final at Memphis which means this is going to be a very good week for the picks all around.

That also means the 2014 season has turned around from a tough start with this being the second really successful week and one that will hopefully spark something for the rest of the season.

The picks went 3-1 yesterday with the only disappointment being Agnieszka Radwanska's loss to Simona Halep after she blew a 5-2 lead in the first set of that match.

Now we reach Sunday which is the day this week's tournaments are concluded and hopefully will be the exclamation point on the season.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: It has been a long eighteen months since Tomas Berdych was last lifting a title in terms of his singles career (he has won two Davis Cup titles with the Czech Republic in that time frame), but I think he has been playing well enough to beat the in-form Marin Cilic for the title this week.

It won't be easy, but Berdych has been serving well and there was some vulnerabilities in the Cilic serves yesterday in his Semi Final win.

It will be a very close match, but I do think Berdych has enough to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win and finally get his hands on a trophy.


David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: In the form that Fabio Fognini is in, it was perhaps unsurprising to see Tommy Robredo get a chance to serve for the match in the Semi Final, but the Italian breaking serve and continuing his dominance on the clay courts.

Since winning his first title on the ATP Tour last summer, Fognini has been on an incredible run on the clay and has added three further titles since then. However, this could prove to be the toughest opponent he has played on the surface since his defeat to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.

David Ferrer had to come through some sticky moments in his Semi Final win over Nicolas Almagro, but it was the second decent performance in succession and the Spaniard has a strong record in Buenos Aires where he looks for a third title.

Picking against Fognini is much harder to do these days, especially on clay, but Ferrer will be able to live with the long rallies that the former has been winning against other opponents. There should be a number of breaks of serve against both players, but that little bit of quality that makes all the difference may come from Ferrer's racquet and help him to a 75, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 13.34 (63 Units Staked, + 21.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 15th)

As frustrated as I said I was after the results coming through on Thursday, it was actually not as bad a day as it could have been, but Friday has proved to be a very important day for the week and looks to bring in some positives that I have been looking for.

After having a number of matches get close, but not quite over the line, the luck seemed to have turned a little on Friday with some big performances and late breaks of serve helping the picks come in with plenty of winners. Unfortunately, Andy Murray proved to be one of the disappointments as he slipped in the Quarter Finals and ended my outright interest at the ATP 500 event being held in Rotterdam, but other than Robin Haase retiring when very much down in his match with Tommy Robredo, it was a perfect day for the picks.

Even with the two outright exits over the last couple of days, Ivo Karlovic is still flying the flag in that regards and is one match away from making the Final which will produce a profit from the outright picks. Of course, if he can go on and win the tournament, this will prove to be a very strong week all around and raise a confidence that may have sapped a little recently.

That has put the week into a strong positive position as we have reached the Semi Finals in all four events being played across the world and I will look for it to end in a position to at least turn around the poor start to 2014 in general.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: A fascinating Semi Final is in store between these two players who have both shown strong form during the week and I think it is bound to be another close one between them.

However, I think Tomas Berdych is the man that is going to get through to the Final as he takes another step closer to ending his title drought which has stretched back to Stockholm in October 2012.

He has to be careful in this Semi Final though as he plays Ernests Gulbis who has already had back to back surprise wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Juan Martin Del Potro and has also stunned Berdych in the past as witnessed by their match at Wimbledon in 2012.

Both have been serving very well, but I think the layers have put too much stock in the Gulbis win over Del Potro as I am not sure the latter was feeling 100% comfortable on the court this week. Against Berdych, Gulbis' strength will be going against Berdych's and I think the forehand battle is more likely to be won by the Czech player.

Of course, if Gulbis serves as big as he has in the last two matches, he is going to be incredibly tough to break, but I think Berdych dealt with Jerzy Janowicz' serve effectively enough to think he will make enough returns to force pressure on his opponent. It is unlikely to be straight-forward and breaks could be at a premium, but Berdych to come through 76, 64 is my call.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: I will be the first to admit that I was expecting something of a come down from Marin Cilic after winning the title in Zagreb last week, but he has been in exceptional form this week and has already downed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray as the big Croatian looks for back to back titles.

This Semi Final represents a strong chance for Cilic to get into another Final as his recovery from a three month ban continues moving in the right direction and I think he will beat the home hope in the match.

You have to give Igor Sijsling plenty of credit for reaching this stage of the tournament as the Dutch look for the first home winner since Richard Krajicek took the title. However, you would also have to be a little critical and say the draw hasn't been the most difficult and this is going to be the toughest match he has played during the week by some distance.

Sijsling actually represented the first competitive match in three months for Cilic at Paris last October and it was the latter who came through comfortably after losing the first set, which was understandable. Cilic will pressure with his return of serve, one of his key strengths that is very under-rated, while he has also been serving with aplomb.

That combination should really work to his favour in this one and I think Cilic will come through with a 64, 64 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Simona Halep: With the consistency that Simona Halep has shown on the Tour over the last ten months, I think it is fair to say that the Romanian perhaps let nerves get the better of her when dismissed so comprehensively by Dominika Cibulkova at the Australian Open Quarter Final stage.

Halep has shown decent form again this week as she has come through the draw with some comfort after a tricky opening match, but I still believe she will fall short against Agnieszka Radwanska in this Semi Final in Doha.

I will be the first to admit that I am not always a huge fan of the Radwanska game as it seems it will only take her so far and I don't believe it will ever be enough to win a Grand Slam. Defending admirably is one thing, but there will always be a player that gets hot and hits through that, so you have to add weapons of your own to give opponents something to think about.

In saying that, Radwanska has generally made hay outside of the Slams and that is the reason she is a top five player in the Rankings. I can see her frustrating Halep in this match, although the latter has shown she is capable of getting hot enough to win matches against the Pole as shown in Rome last year.

That was even on the clay courts where you would think Radwanska's game had more of a grip, but I am not sure that Halep's confidence is quite there at the beginning of 2014 to replicate that. Radwanska has been incredibly comfortable to this point and I think this will be her hardest match, but I am expecting her to come through with the win.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: David Ferrer is definitely on the downtrend of his career as far as I am concerned, but this could still be a good spot to back him to beat his compatriot yet again.

Ferrer has steadily improved his play this week, and he could be facing Almagro at the right time as the latter has had a lot of tennis in his legs and has looked a little vulnerable at times. There has to be a better serving display from Ferrer, but he should have some chances to break serve too and I think that is where he can come through and cover the spread.

The higher Ranked Spaniard has dominated the head to head record between these two and generally has been a comfortable winner when they have faced one another. Even the slightly poorer form of Ferrer from his heyday, but Almagro is still returning from an injury and I think Ferrer comes through with a 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 9.30 Units (55 Units Staked, + 16.91% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 14th)

To say I was absolutely furious with the picks I made on Thursday won't get close to the where I was after seeing almost every single one do their best to lose in the most ridiculous manner.

I knew what kind of day it was going to be as soon as the Grigor Dimitrov defeat was completed as he was seemingly on the wrong end of a Ernests Gulbis performance where the Latvian is unplayable- this is a rare occurrence and unlikely to be produced again in the near future, but saving all the break points with huge serves and just playing top, top quality stuff behind his serve set the tone for an absolutely miserable day.

Tommy Haas never turned up and had ridiculous serving statistics, Petra Kvitova played within herself for two sets (although you have to credit Lucie Safarova) and was still only one game from covering, but things got steadily worse.

How about Andy Murray taking a double break lead in his match with Dominic Thiem, but then giving away the most ridiculous of games which gave his young opponent the confidence to play his shots?

Or how about Nicolas Almagro being broken 3 times in the first set in a terrible display, but suddenly coming back to life to win the match in three sets and facing only 2 break points the rest of the way?

Absolutely shocking day that has sent this week spiralling out of control and it was hard to contain some of my anger as I hate getting things wrong, but to be so wrong with players deciding to put in lacklustre efforts just bothers me all the more. It just made no sense with the way some of the results came through and I am very much bothered when I keep hitting these shocking runs of loss after loss.

I am down, but I very much plan on beating the ten count and getting ready to punch my way back into some sort of positive run.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: This is going to be a big-serving match and initially I may have thought that Tomas Berdych was giving up too many games, but I believe he has the capability of breaking the Jerzy Janowicz serve with the current form he is displaying.

There are times when you watch Berdych and can't help be frustrated as he has a lot of ability but can come off the form he is capable of and that gives opponents a chance. However, this match should be one where he can dictate enough behind his own serve and force the pressure on Janowicz.

They met on the indoor hard courts of Marseille last season and Berdych was a comfortable winner, even if the match was forced into a third set, but the Czech player does seem the more likely to take the few chances that may be presented in the match.

He is 7/13 on break points in his two matches against Janowicz and something similar will give him a great chance of moving through to the Semi Final with a 63, 76 win in the pocket.


Ernests Gulbis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Ernests Gulbis was serving out of a tree in his win over Grigor Dimitrov and will have to bring the same form into this match against Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to reverse the result from last season.

He may have more of a chance as Del Potro is still limited off his backhand wing as to how much power he can generate, but the whole match is going to hinge on how effective the Gulbis serve is today.

If, and it is a big if, he can replicate what he produced against Dimitrov, Gulbis will put a lot of pressure on Del Potro and will have his own chances and I think there is every reason to believe this match will at least go into a third set.

There is likely to be a tie-breaker involved too, and those situations means the 3.5 game head start might be a touch high for Del Potro to cover. The Argentine has won comfortably in his two matches so far this week, but this one might be a lot tougher and I like taking the games.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Marin Cilic has played very well over the last couple of weeks and is looking for his eight win in a row after taking the title in Zagreb and coming through two Rounds here in Rotterdam.

Getting through this Quarter Final is going to be a real test of Cilic's credentials and will also give him a good indication as to how far he is from the top of the game following his return from a three month ban.

His win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was impressive as Cilic dominated the match, but Andy Murray regularly gives him fits and the match is very much on the British Number 1's racquet in my opinion.

Murray had to battle through his match in the last Round against Dominic Thiem, but he admitted he was feeling pretty good and that he should have perhaps converted more chances. Thiem had nothing to lose and was going for his big shots, but Cilic has to overcome the mental barrier which exists when you have lost 9 of 10 and 6 in a row against a single opponent.

They did have a close match in the Final of Queens last season, but Murray's return is likely to give him plenty more chances to win this match with room to spare and I think that is where the match will be won or lost. If Murray takes the chances that come his way, I expect him to get through 64, 64, but if he doesn't, this could be a very close match that could be won by Cilic.

As you can see from the pick, I think Murray will take those opportunities and his return of serve may mentally fatigue a player that has spent a lot of time on the court over the last two weeks.


Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Petra Kvitova: It was only around six months ago that Jelena Jankovic would have been a strong underdog in a match between these two players, but the former World Number 1 has really turned her form around and looks to be coming into this match the stronger of the two.

As much as I like Petra Kvitova's game on the court, she can't keep falling into long three set battles and coming off back to back matches of that nature without a rest day is hard to recover from. I am not doubting her fitness, but Kvitova has to be feeling it a little as she wakes up for this match against an opponent that is capable of mentally exhausting an opponent with her ability to scramble and force the ball into court.

That is what Jankovic has to do- if she can frustrate Kvitova, she will begin to force errors and that will swing the edge in this match in her direction. She also is a decent shot-maker, although Jankovic's serve can go a little haywire at times and that is my biggest concern in the match.

However, I think all the tennis of the last couple of days may just take its toll on Kvitova in this Quarter Final and I like Jankovic to come through 76, 64.


Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is an interesting Quarter Final between these two players, but I think Tommy Robredo's added experience on a clay court will prove to be vital as well as his all around more consistent game.

Robredo won't fluctuate too far between his levels, but Robin Haase can be criticised for doing that at times, and that could be enough to help the veteran Spaniard reach a Semi Final.

There is little doubt that Haase has the bigger serve of the two, but he does seem to lose his focus when it comes to the groundstrokes and that is where the uber-consistent Robredo could come through and win each set with a break more. There will be breaks of serve both ways, but I can see Robredo matching his 64, 64 win over Haase in Portugal on the clay courts last season.


Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Pablo Andujar: Over the last nine months, there hasn't been a player on the Tour in better form on the clay courts than Fabio Fognini as he continues in 2014 where he left off last summer.

This could be a strong season for the Italian if he can keep the momentum he has built up in that time by winning another title on the Golden Swing in South America, especially with the European clay court season around six weeks away.

Fognini hasn't just won matches, but he has been dismissing a lot of his opponents and I think it may be tough for Pablo Andujar to keep tabs on him, even if the Spaniard is very comfortable on the clay courts himself.

Neither player will dominate off the serve, but Fognini looks like he is playing confident, effective tennis off the ground and I think he will be able to knock off Andujar with room to spare in this one. I don't think I ever believed I would back Fognini with so many games being given up, but he is such hot form on the clay that he has to be backed here.


Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Nicolas Almagro started off incredibly cold in his last match against Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but had another win to give him a boost after returning from injury. He served terribly in the first set, but found his rhythm in the final two sets and bringing that to this match will be important.

The amount of time he spent on court yesterday may have been a worry initially, but his opponent Jeremy Chardy had an even tougher encounter as he saved match points to see off Alexandr Dolgopolov.

This match should see both men looking to dictate things behind the serve, but that should be a strength for Almagro as well as the clay court pedigree that the Spaniard has. There is no doubt that Chardy can perform on the surface, but I think he can get a little frustrated with the longer rallies and may not have the patience to really get it going on the clay, although he will knock off 'lesser' opponents the majority of the time.

Unfortunately for Chardy, Almagro certainly is not one of the lesser opponents he will face and I think the latter will add to his four wins on the Tour over the Frenchman and come through a tough match 76, 64.


Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: Any friends and family of Alex Kuznetsov must be proud of their guy as he finally won back to back matches on the Tour after a decade long career. Getting into his first Semi Final will be a big task against Yen-Hsun Lu who had to recover from a set down to beat Denis Kudla in the last Round and must be confident of getting further.

Lu has had a decent season already with one Final under his belt and he will feel he can get to another here in Memphis with Feliciano Lopez falling out of the draw. I also think the match under his belt will help Lu who should be too strong for a player that generally plays at the level below the main ATP one.

He has to be a little tougher when it comes to facing break points as he struggled under that pressure against Kudla, but he also created plenty of opportunities and you have to think he will do the same against an opponent who is of a similar level to Kudla.

As I said, Lu has to serve better, but I think the match under his belt will help a lot and I think he will come through with a break in each set for a 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 1.02 Units (41 Units Staked, - 2.49% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 13th)

I'll admit it, that pick on Donald Young was an abomination and the former child protege was completely outclassed in an error-strewn defeat to Denis Kudla. Fortunately it wasn't too bad a day for the rest of the picks which keeps the week in a good place as we have gone beyond the half way stage, but I don't think I will ever have Young in my staking plan again.

One of the more impressive results was Marin Cilic continuing his fine run with a win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he may finally be returning to the form he was displaying before the ban from the Tour last season. I like Cilic and I think he is a good player that probably should be moving up into the top ten of the Rankings with a clear year on the Tour, but I was expecting the Croatian to perhaps take a little more time before beginning to record the big wins on the Tour.

The title in Zagreb will have helped his confidence, but the run to the Quarter Finals here will just increase that belief and he could be a dangerous player for the top seeds to look out for at Indian Wells and Miami in the big tournaments coming up next month.


On Thursday we will get to see the tournaments completing their Quarter Final line ups and there is plenty of tennis to see through the day, while I am also happy to see my three outright picks for the week still involved in all their events.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: This looks a fascinating Second Round match in Rotterdam, but I think the First Round win for Grigor Dimitrov over Dmitry Tursunov may stand him in good stead for the rest of the week.

It was a tough first match for Dimitrov, but that should have given him all the knowledge of the conditions he needed, while coming through was important as it was a match he may have lost twelve months ago.

Facing a player like Ernests Gulbis is always going to be difficult as he can become very hot at times and get to the point of producing almost unplayable tennis, but he is also inconsistent and has had difficulty in maintaining his form. That was shown by another disappointing showing in a Grand Slam at the Australian Open last month, although Gulbis did play very well in the win over Denis Istomin in the First Round.

The serve is going to be critical for Dimitrov to see off Gulbis in this one, but I do think the Bulgarian is a little more consistent off the ground and can find a way to produce a 76, 64 win and move through to another Quarter Final as he continues finding the consistency that will see him challenge the best players on Tour.


Tommy Haas + 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: I might sound like I am repeating myself from a couple of days ago, but I simply still don't believe Jerzy Janowicz should be favoured to beat a player of the ability of Tommy Haas and the veteran can make this small number of games seem all important as Julien Benneteau did against the Pole in the First Round.

As big as Janowicz plays at time, especially when it comes to the serve, he is still a little too inconsistent off the ground to think he can blow pass someone like Haas. As I said two days ago, Janowicz will get through some service games comfortably, but Haas has the ability to get enough balls back in play to force errors and then it will come down to whether he takes his chances.

Haas also had a long match on Wednesday which followed his exploits in reaching the Final in Zagreb and that is one of the concerns in backing him in this match. The shoulder issue he had last month seems to be behind him, but Haas will have to serve well to make sure he keeps the pressure on Janowicz.

This is something he is well capable of doing when on form and the last two weeks suggests he is finding his way again after a strong 2013 season. Haas might not win the match, but he should be able to take at least one set and that makes this number of games of interest to put in the bank.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Dominic Thiem: This is a very good match for Dominic Thiem to have as he looks to build his experience and improve his Ranking, but the young Austrian is unlikely to be able to trouble Andy Murray through this match and will likely be seen off by the two time Grand Slam winner.

Murray was impressive in beating Edouard Roger-Vasselin and looked comfortable being back on the hard courts following his clay court success with Great Britain in the Davis Cup. He created plenty of break point opportunities and his ability to return serve is likely to put Thiem under some pressure in this Second Round match.

Coming through the qualifiers and then beating Jarkko Nieminen already constitutes a good week for Thiem who is attempting to make the move onto the main ATP Tour, but this will be by far the toughest challenge he has faced in his young career. Thiem has shown some signs of what he is capable of with surprise wins over the likes of Jurgen Melzer and pushing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to three sets in Vienna last year, but Murray's return of serve will give him a new obstacle to overcome.

If Murray is playing as he was on Wednesday, he should prove to be too strong again for his opponent and come through 64, 62.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: This is the battle of two of the top Czech players on the WTA Tour and both Petra Kvitova and Lucie Safarova have come through tough Second Round matches to set this Third Round match up.

Out of the two players, it was always clear that Kvitova was going to have a tougher match in the last Round as she faced former World Number 1 Venus Williams, but she managed to come through a final set tie-break and could be in for another big run in the Middle East after winning the title in Dubai last year.

These two also met in Sydney last month and it was the second time that Kvitova dominated the match, although she has to be a little more efficient with the chances that may come her way to break serve in this one.

Kvitova's serve also has to be on form if she is to cover this spread as she can mentally wonder in matches, while her shot-making can go a little off which has led to her having a lot of three set matches over the last twelve months. This should be a match that has a lot of winners, but I expect the majority of them to come from the side of the higher Ranked player and I like Kvitova to come through 64, 64.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Klara Zakopalova: This looks a good chance for Angelique Kerber to reach the Quarter Final here, especially if she continues serving as well as she did in her win on Wednesday as well as her win over Klara Zakopalova when they met in Paris a couple of weeks ago.

On that occasion, Kerber won 40 of 46 points behind serve and was a comfortable winner which isn't surprising as Zakopalova doesn't protect her own serve that well.

She isn't a bad player and I certainly don't think Zakopalova will return serve as badly as she did in Paris, but I do think this is a tough match up for her and it might be hard to back up the surprise win over Ana Ivanovic in the last Round.

Kerber has been showing enough good form in 2014 to think she will have enough in the locker to come through this one with a 64, 62 win.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: It would have taken a couple of points here and there to have seen Nicolas Almagro reach the Final last week in Vina Del Mar on his comeback to the Tour. It was the first appearance of Almagro in 2014 and he looked pretty good considering and has already won a match here in Buenos Aires to keep the confidence in a good place.

He now faces a compatriot in Daniel Gimeno-Traver who has beaten three times in a row, although they do have a number of tough matches against one another on the clay courts that will be a concern for Almagro backers.

Gimeno-Traver doesn't seemingly have a lot of weapons, but he is very comfortable rallying on the clay courts and that can frustrate a player like Almagro who will continue going for his shots. There is something to be said about not pushing too hard, but that is the way Almagro will play and it has worked the last couple of times they have played one another, albeit on the hard courts.

On the clay the ball slows down enough for Gimeno-Traver to at least force some mistakes from Almagro, but I still think the latter fights through with a 64, 63 win.


Albert Ramos - 2.5 games v Filippo Volandri: Two players that haven't shown a lot of form in the opening weeks of the new season have a chance to change their trends with a Quarter Final place up for grabs in this one.

Both Albert Ramos and Filippo Volandri are very comfortable on the clay courts, although I think Ramos has a little more upside when it comes to the highest level of the Tour compared with Volandri who is definitely saving his best for the Challenger circuit.

Ramos has the more effective serve that should set up his points a little easier and he will be happy to rally with the Italian if he has to and I think there is no surprise to me that Ramos has won 3 of 4 against Volandri.

That includes a couple of wins in 2013, and I think Ramos can put another win in the books in this match too.


Yen-Hsun Lu - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: I don't think anyone would have predicted Denis Kudla winning as easily as he did in the First Round against Donald Young, but that should have given the young American a lot of belief going forward.

Coming through the qualifiers would have aided Kudla and he will be hoping to catch Yen-Hsun Lu a little cold in his first match since the Australian Open almost a month ago.

Lu is a solid journeyman on the Tour, but he able to raise his level at times as shown by reaching the Final in Auckland before the first Slam of the season, although he hasn't enjoyed much success on the indoor hard courts in recent seasons.

He will make it tough for Kudla with the ability to hit consistently off the ground and having an under-rated serve and I think Lu can win this match. It won't be easy coming off a long lay-off, but I can see Lu winning 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Haas + 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yen-Hsun Lu - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-6, + 3.12 Units (25 Units Staked, + 12.48% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 11th)

Monday proved to be a mixed bag for the picks, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at least dominated his match with Florian Mayer (after the first set anyway) in the same manner he has against that opponent in the past.

The two picks from Doha were both disappointing, but at least it is a better start than last week as we get ready for another full schedule of tennis through the four tournaments that are being played through the week.

Igor Sijsling + 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: A poor summer of 2013 dropped Igor Sijsling down the Rankings and he is struggling to regain some of the form he has displayed at times on the Tour, but I still think he can push Mikhail Youzhny in this First Round match in Rotterdam.

Having the home support should help Sijsling who did surprise Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the First Round last year, but the Dutchman has had some disappointing results to open 2014 even if he did reach the Final of a Challenger event on the indoor hard courts.

This is actually more of a pick against Youzhny who has been struggling for form and had a very disappointing loss in Zagreb last week. The veteran looks a little more shaky behind his serve and even if he wins this match, it wouldn't be a big surprise if he is pushed at least into a final set decider.

There will be breaks of serve and I do think Youzhny has the better mentality of the two players, but I wouldn't be surprised if these games on the spread prove to be critical.

Julien Benneteau + 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: This is another match where I think the underdog has a real chance of winning it outright and that makes the games a very attractive proposition. Julien Benneteau had his best success on the indoor hard courts last season, reaching two Finals including here at Rotterdam where he surprised Roger Federer.

Benneteau didn't have a good week in Montpellier last week when he was upset by Nikolay Davydenko, but he has a decent game that will give Jerzy Janowicz something to think about. The Frenchman has to serve well in a match where Janowicz' big serve will put some mental pressure on the Benneteau performance, but he has faced him twice before and should have a better understanding of what to expect.

It is the big serve that makes Janowicz someone that will appeal to casual fans, while his run to the Paris Masters at the back end of 2012 has perhaps made him a little over-rated at times. He will be able to breeze through some service games, but Janowicz can also be weak with his groundstrokes and begin to make a number of errors off the ground that will give Benneteau a chance to win the match.

This spread will essentially need Benneteau to win at least one set to earn the cover, but I do think he can win outright so the games worth keeping in hand.

Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games v Marina Erakovic: It has been a couple of weeks since Marina Erakovic had to pull out of her match in Paris against Daniela Hantuchova, but it might not matter if she is at full health after a really poor start to the 2014 season.

It doesn't help that she is playing against Samantha Stosur who has dominated their three previous matches and who has shown signs that she may be able to regain her form to send her back into the top ten in the World Rankings.

The serve is going to be critical for Stosur as she should have chances to break the Erakovic serve and I think she should be able to win at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve more than she gives up.

If Stosur serves well, I think the Australian wins 62, 64 to move through to the Second Round.


Lukas Lacko - 1.5 games v Benjamin Becker: One of the more inconsistent players on the Tour has fallen out of the top 100 because of injuries in 2013, but Lukas Lacko should still have too much in the locker for Benjamin Becker in this First Round match.

There have been a few times I have watched Lacko and I have seen a player that has a lot of the tools to play in the top 50, perhaps even more, but the inconsistency in his play is hard to get a handle on.

Lacko had a disappointing loss in Zagreb last week, but he has a decent indoor hard court pedigree on the Challenger Tour and Becker doesn't represent a big step up in class compared to that level of play.

The German has a decent serve, but Becker struggles with his own consistency although I believe his current Ranking of 88 is more realistic than Lacko being out of the top 100. Becker did reach the Quarter Final on the indoor hard courts of Metz last year, but he generally doesn't quite have enough to keep his performance up to the level required and I think Lacko wins this match in straight sets.


Christian Garin + 3.5 games v Filippo Volandri: After the performance last week, I am perhaps surprising myself that I am picking Christian Garin to cover the spread in this First Round match, but I do think there were elements of his game that could bode well for him against the veteran Filippo Volandri.

There were signs that Christian Garin could be a really good player, but he has to show more consistency off the ground and can't afford to miss the same amount of easy put-aways that he did in the loss to Jeremy Chardy.

He will have chances against Volandri to at least keep the match competitive as the Italian has one of the poorer serves on the Tour, but I also have to respect that he is still a 'gate-keeper' on a clay court as he remains dominant below the main Tour level.

That should give Volandri the ability to win this match, but he also can fall apart in sets thanks to his weak serve and I think Garin can keep this competitive through the contest.


Robin Haase v Martin Alund: Changing surfaces can always lead to problems early on and that is what faces Robin Haase against the qualifier Martin Alund who has proved effective on the clay courts below the main Tour level but not transferred that to the main draws on too many occasions.

It has been a tough start to 2014 for Robin Haase too which raises more doubts about the match, but the Dutchman won a Davis Cup tie for his country which could spark some form after his best season on the Tour in 2013.

The clay courts are also his favoured surface, but Haase is maddeningly inconsistent, although he should get plenty of chances to recover breaks of serve against Alund.

While I do have some doubts about Haase considering the long travel to South America and this being his first clay court match of the season, I still think he should be a stronger favourite to win the match and like him to come through, possibly in three sets though.

MY PICKS: Igor Sijsling + 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Julien Benneteau + 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Sam Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Christian Garin + 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 1.85 Bwin (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 0.34 Units (5 Units Staked, - 0.7% Yield)

Tennis Picks (February 22nd)

While the regular daily picks are going pretty well, it looks like being my worst outright picks of the new season as Milos Raonic went out and David Ferrer is in a bit of bother as I writing this (although that is down to David Nalbandian who could make some serious leaps back up the Rankings by knocking out the top seeded Spaniard).

That means that only Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is left and I haven't seen the draw in Marseille open up as I expected with both Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro winning tight three set battles to move into the Quarter Finals.

We'll have to see how things develop on that front as the week goes on, but for now these are the latest of my picks.


Sara Errani v Roberta Vinci: Going against Roberta Vinci hasn't been productive for me at all this week, but I am going to try one more time as she faces her close friend Sara Errani in the Semi Final in Dubai.

Errani has won the last 4 matches between these Doubles partners and I do think she has enough game to see off Vinci in this pick 'em contest. The younger Italian also hasn't lost against Vinci since 2010 and I think she will be well prepared to take on someone whose game she will know backwards.

Don't get me wrong though, Vinci has played at a pretty high level this week so under-estimating her would be a bad mistake. She has deserved to win both of the matches when I favoured her opponents, but I think Errani will be tough enough mentally to get through the match.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: I said last week that I think there are signs that Petra Kvitova has turned a corner after a number of months of sub-standard performances from the high level she had set herself.

Her form has continued here in Dubai and I think she will have one too many weapons for Caroline Wozniacki, although I have to say I have been a little impressed with the way the Dane has also been playing this week.

However, she hasn't played someone like Kvitova who is capable of taking the racquet completely out of her hands and I think Wozniacki could find herself under some pressure in this one. The way Kvitova broke down Radwanska today would have been a concern for Wozniacki and her fans and I am not that surprised that the Czech player has won 4 of the last 5 matches between these players.

As long as Kvitova keeps her head, she should be able to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: This is a slightly risky spread as Jerzy Janowicz certainly is backed by a serve that can make it tough to break- Tomas Berdych will need to break twice if he is to cover this spread (twice more than Janowicz) and I think he is capable after coming through a really tough match with Ernests Gulbis.

I wasn't sure how Berdych would respond to his wrist injury that kept him out for a couple of weeks, but he looked in good shape against Gulbis and should really have won that match in straight sets.

He is playing an opponent whose game will be heavily backed by the indoor hard court conditions, but I also feel Janowicz is still finding his feet on the main Tour and the pressure that Berdych could exert is possibly going to be too much to handle.

The top ten player will have to take any chances that come his way as I don't think he will have  a lot of break points, but I think Berdych can do so and it may result in a 7-6, 6-3 win.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Federico Delbonis: This is a rematch of a meeting these two players had last season here in Buenos Aires and I think Nicolas Almagro will be able to book his place in the Semi Finals.

Almagro has come through his first couple of Rounds fairly comfortably and he is one of the better clay court players in the world and I think that will be enough to take him past Federico Delbonis again.

Last season this ended in a 6-3, 6-2 win for the Spaniard and he was very comfortable returning the serve in that match. Delbonis is an improved player since then so I can see him winning a couple more games, but I would be surprised if this wasn't a fairly routine win for Almagro.


MY PICKS: Sara Errani @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-8, + 6 Units (37 Units Staked, + 16.22% Yield)

Tennis Picks (February 21st)

Some of the tournaments have reached their Quarter Final stage, while others are a little behind schedule thanks to the weather. It has been a pretty good week for the picks so far and the likes of David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic are all still involved in their respective tournaments (although Raonic is playing his first match in Memphis after I have finished writing this).

While I have made a fair few picks this week so far, I think this day could be slightly quieter.


Sam Stosur - 2.5 games v Roberta Vinci: This is the opening Quarter Final in Dubai and I am sticking with Sam Stosur who has proved to be a very profitable player to back this week.

I think Stosur holds the clear edge when it comes to the serve in this one and I think that'll prove to be the difference in the match and I do think the Australian will win this match in fairly straightforward fashion.

Roberta Vinci surprised me by beating Angelique Kerber yesterday, but that was as much to do with the German's poor performance as it was with Vinci winning the match. The backhand slice befuddled Kerber who threw in a ridiculous amounts of unforced errors, but I don't think this tactic will fluster Stosur who is very adept at playing the backhand slice herself.

With that weapon taken away from Vinci, the Italian may be forced out of her comfort zone somewhat. Stosur won their only previous meeting comfortably enough on the hard courts in Toronto in 2011 and while Vinci is an improved Singles player since then, Stosur is playing well enough to dispose of her again.


Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Lleyton Hewitt: Lleyton Hewitt could be considered a little bit fortunate to still be in this tournament after struggling in his First Round match yesterday and I think Denis Istomin is going to prove a little too tough for him in this one.

Istomin is a infuriating player to watch, as I have mentioned before, but he has been playing some good tennis over the last couple of weeks and also holds a win over Hewitt from Brisbane earlier this season.

The problem with Hewitt these days is that he allows his opponents to dictate play and doesn't have the same fitness level of old to chase down all the balls he used to. That makes him a little more vulnerable on serve too and I think that will be the problem for him to overcome in this match if Istomin is serving as he can.


Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Marin Cilic can take advantage of Jurgen Melzer's exit by beating Igor Sijsling in the Second Round here in Memphis and I think he will be an easy enough winner in this contest.

Marin Cilic has a very under-rated return of serve and I think he can put enough pressure on the Dutchman in this one to earn at least a break of serve in each set and I think Sijsling's comfortable losses to Martin Klizan and Mikhail Youzhny says more about his form than the win over Melzer who has been struggling for form for around 18 months.

I can see the Croatian just being a little too strong in most aspects of this one and his confidence will be high after winning the tournament in Zagreb and coming through a tough opening contest here so I wouldn't be surprised to see Cilic record a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Albert Ramos - 3.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: I don't like going against home players in these smaller tournaments as they can be inspired to put in a big performance, but Leonardo Mayer looks like he will be in for a tough task against Albert Ramos.

Mayer hasn't opened up 2013 in the best form, but he did record a decent win over Filippo Volandri in the First Round here, although it has to be said that Leonardo Mayer has mainly achieved his success on the lower Challenger circuit than on the Main Tour.

The Argentinian is only 10-10 on the clay courts in ATP events over the last three seasons and he is facing a player in Ramos that has achieved his best results on the slower surfaces. That is not surprising with Ramos being a Spaniard, but his also plays at the higher level on a more regular basis than Mayer and he does have a Quarter Final appearance under his belt this season.

I can see Ramos earning a break of serve more in each set to ensure this spread is covered.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units) Advised Yesterday
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-6, + 4.46 Units (27 Units Staked, + 16.52% Yield)