Boxing Picks 2025- Gervonta Davis vs Lamont Roach (Saturday 1st March)

The late illness picked up by Daniel Dubois meant an opportunity for replacement Martin Bakole, but it was clear from the off that failing to have any kind of training camp was not going end well for the boogeyman of the Heavyweight Division.

Of course there are benefits of 'saving' the day for Turki Alalshikh and the Saudi authorities who were running the card in Riyadh.

For starters Martin Bakole will have been extremely well paid, but the second part of the deal is also important for a fighter who feels he has been avoided.

With the gratefulness of 'His Excellency' behind him, Martin Bakole is sure to earn some big opportunities to move back into contention in a fast moving Division and he is expected to be back out with a full camp before the midway point of the 2025 season.

Joseph Parker has benefited from the late call and there are still some that believe that his fight with Daniel Dubois should be rearranged for one of the big cards that Riyadh Season are going to be promoting. However, the team behind the British Champion are instead focusing on seeing if they can do a deal with Oleksandr Usyk and that could leave Parker perhaps in line to take on someone like Agit Kabayel, another Heavyweight who had a massive win last weekend.

The card was a very good one, and entertaining for the fans, even if the Boxing Picks have fallen into a solid hole early in the season.

The key word is 'early' and the turnaround could be pretty rapid, although starting to pick a few winners would help.

It has been a disappointing start, but there have been some misfortune with some of the selections and a bit of luck is always needed.

Still, it is not about erasing the number in one fell swoop, but the key is to rebuild slowly and surely, beginning with this weekend when three decent cards have been put together.

Gervonta Davis vs Lamont Roach

While pretty much every top name in Boxing has made a deal to fight under the Riyadh Season card, including fights in Saudi Arabia, the last outlier is Gervonta Davis who refuses to entertain any outside offers.

The challengers are lining up in and around Gervonta Davis, but the American is firmly in control of his own career and will fight who he chooses.

He is the WBA Lightweight World Champion, and fighters like Shakur Stevenson, Keyshawn Davis, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney have all called him out, but so far Gervonta Davis has resisted those efforts, even if his win over Ryan Garcia looks much stronger these days.

The criticisms are that Tank Davis not nearly as active as he perhaps should be, and you cannot blame some believing Lamont Roach coming up from Super Featherweight is not the kind of fighter that should be opposing Davis when so many others have stronger reasons to fight him.

Lamont Roach deserves his respect as a full World Champion in his own right, but he has not really been in with many opponents that can stand alongside someone as good as Gervonta Davis.

They know each other having faced off as amateurs, but it is Tank Davis who has really been the impactful fighter as a professional and it is very difficult to find a good reason to back Lamont Roach for any potential upset.

Recent fights featuring Gervonta Davis have tended to finish in the middle Rounds and three of the last four have ended between Round Six and Round Eight. He is a patient fighter, but Tank's power is going to be telling and you have to figure he will be able to move through the gears against a rival that is coming up in weight and who doesn't look to offer to slow the momentum that Gervonta Davis is likely to pick up.

It has been almost six years since Gervonta Davis last won a fight before the Fifth Round and you have to believe Lamont Roach has enough know-how to get through the early stages of this one. However, once Davis warms up, he should just underline why so many see him as the top fighter in this Division and the unbeaten Lightweight Champion can find the punches to end this one in the middle of the contest.

Another solid undercard has been put together and Subriel Matias is looking to take another step towards reclaiming his IBF Light-Welterweight World Title.

He is a powerful puncher and won't have to go looking for Gabriel Valenzuela, which should mean a fun, exciting bout, but one that is unlikely to get very close to the Championship Rounds.

It is scheduled for Twelve Rounds, but Matias can just push his credentials for another shot at the IBF World Title by forcing a mid-fight Stoppage.

The unbeaten run Gary Antuanne Russell had built was ended in a very close loss to Alberto Puello and you have to believe the American is looking to get back to winning ways and earn a rematch with the WBC World Champion.

Both are on this undercard too- Russell should get back to winning ways, even if his inactivity continues to be frustration and he can wear down Jose Valenzuela in what looks a good fight on paper with the WBA World Title on the line.

WBC Light-Welterweight Champion Alberto Puello is facing Sandor Martin, who had not been out in 2024 and the unbeaten Dominican looks an appealing price as the narrow favourite to defend the World Title he won against the aforementioned Russell.

We have seen some tough performances out of Sandor Martin, but Puello may just have the Southpaw know-how to deal with the Spanish lefty in another good fight on this Pay-Per-View card.

There are also a couple of veterans heading out to the ring in Brooklyn- Jarrett Hurd has never really recovered from the upset loss to Julian Williams and his style has meant growing much older in the ring than a 34 year old should have.

However, he can give himself one last attempt at a run by winning his crossroads fight with Johan Gonzalez and Jarrett Hurd can do that inside the scheduled Ten Rounds.

The fighter who sparked Hurd's downfall is also on the card and Julian Williams is being used as a potential step up for Yoenis Tellez who is looking to earn an Interm World Title in the Light-Middleweight Division sooner rather than later.

He has impressed in his young career and it does feel like Tellez can get the better of J-Rock before needing to get into the second half of their contest.

British Boxing fans have perhaps been a little frustrated that so many of the top names have headed over to Saudi Arabia, but the promoters have made it clear that they want to put on decent cards in the United Kingdom.

The atmosphere that is likely going to be generated in Belfast may not be matched anywhere and especially when the main event gets underway.

Before that, Tommy McCarthy is hoping to have one more big run towards European honours and potentially having a crack at the World Title in the Cruiserweight Division.

He gave Chris Billam-Smith all he could handle when first facing him in 2021, but that has sparked a run of form where McCarthy has won three fights and lost four.

It all adds up to a crossroads fight with Steven Ward, someone who is very familiar to McCarthy, and both are willing to put friendship to one side in order to give their respective career a late shot in the arm.

Familiarity should mean Steven Ward has a decent game plan for this bout, but his professional career has been stop-start and Tommy McCarthy can use his experience to wear down his man.

In another Ten Rounder, Padraig McCrory is fighting in front of his own fans in a new Division against experienced Craig Richards.

The fans will push McCrory forward, but he was Stopped by Edgar Berlanga a little over twelve months ago and he is facing an opponent who hits pretty hard.

Craig Richards has little room for error if he is going to give himself one more chance at trying to become a World Champion in a tough Division, but he has shown he is close to World level. His last three wins have been in Stoppages and he may just force Padraig McCrory out of this one inside the distance.

Those are a couple of decent fights for the Belfast fans to enjoy, but everyone will be anticipating the main event when Lewis Crocker takes on Paddy Donovan and both have unbeaten records to protect.

It is the right fight at the right time for two fighters who believe they are destined for big things and both teams are incredibly confident.

Both are Ranked highly in the Welterweight Division and so the winner could be in line for an eliminator later in the year so there is plenty on the line.

The reality is that there is very little to choose between the main event fighters and this is one where you want to sit back, savour the atmosphere and enjoy what should be a top main event in Belfast.

Over in Bournemouth, Ryan Garner is headlining an event and there is so much on the line for the unbeaten British fighter.

Reports suggest he will be given a chance to headline a big event at St Mary's Stadium this summer if he can pick up the vacant European Super Featherweight Title and he will certainly improve his World Ranking with a victory over Salvador Jimenez.

The Spaniard is unbeaten with his only blemish being a Draw when Salvador Jimenez fought for the European Title before.

His experience of going Twelve Rounds will help, but Ryan Garner has shown enough to believe he can edge the visiting fighter on the cards.

MY PICKS: Gervonta Davis to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Subriel Matias to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Gary Antuanne Russell to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Alberto Puello to Win by Decision @ 2.62 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Jarrett Hurd to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tommy McCarthy to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.37 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Craig Richards to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Ryan Garner to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 5-25, - 23.35 Units (38 Units Staked, - 61.45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 1st March)

The Final of the ATP 500 tournament is scheduled for Saturday and the attention will soon turn to the Indian Wells Masters.

That tournament is getting going early next week with the main draw released on Monday, but the likelihood is that the first Picks from that event will be made when the Third Round begins a week on Sunday.

Before that, one more selection will be made from the ATP Dubai Final and the outcome will decide whether this is a profitable week or one with a slight setback.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Both of the players competing for the ATP 500 title in Dubai have been firm members of the top ten in the World Rankings, but who have just been through some leaner times and looking for a big boost in confidence and momentum.

A win for Stefanos Tsitsipas will push him back inside the top ten as soon as Monday and ahead of the Indian Wells Masters draw being made. He has come through some difficult moments this week, but Tsitsipas was very strong in his Semi Final win over Tallon Griekspoor.

This will give him confidence having needed to rally in wins over Matteo Berrettini and Karen Khachanov and the World Number 11 is playing pretty well overall in Dubai, which will also bolster the belief.

It is Felix Auger-Aliassime who has made his way through to the Final to face Stefanos Tsitsipas and the Canadian will end the tournament back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

In a tough tournament that brings in some of the best players on the Tour, Felix Auger-Aliassime was not Seeded at the start, but he has perhaps benefited from the top names falling all around him in the bottom half of the draw. This is backed up by the fact that he has not beaten anyone higher than World Number 38 so far this week, which makes Stefanos Tsitsipas the highest Ranked opponent by some distance, and even then Felix Auger-Aliassime has not had things all his own way.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has had to play every set possible in his four wins in Dubai and that has meant spending a lot more time on the court compared with his opponent in this Final.

This is most certainly a potential factor, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has won six of the last seven matches played between these two players on the Tour, albeit the last of those being in November 2023.

Both players are serving well, with Stefanos Tsitsipas having the edge, and that could be important in determining the outcome of the Final.

There hasn't been a lot between the players when they faced off with Tsitsipas having the slight edge on the serve over Felix Auger-Aliassime.

In a match of potentially fine margins, Stefanos Tsitsipas may just do enough to win the majority of the key points that the players will inevitably have to play against one another. He has perhaps not returned as well as Felix Auger-Aliassime in his run to the Final, but Tsitsipas will point out the tougher path he has had to tread to reach this Stage and that could be key in this big match.

MY PICK: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-4, - 0.05 Units (9 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 1st)

Interestingly it feels like an almost normal part of the Tennis Tour that we are moving on to four new events that are set to be played this week and from various parts of the world.

We have two big events in Rotterdam for the Men and Qatar for the Women, with two regular Tour level events in Buenos Aires and Lyon too. That means there are some very big names out there in a bid to improve their World Rankings with the system likely to be restored to the usual one year Rankings rather than the two year Rankings used during the global pandemic.

As the Tour begins to move into a more regular feel, there are further positives to take for ourselves as we head towards what should be a more 'regular' time too. I am still awaiting the first vaccine shot, which I will be taking as soon as it is possible, but I am feeling more positive that there are going to be fuller crowds for the Tennis Tour to enjoy the longer we go into the year.

I have mentioned there will be some big names out on the courts this week, but one of those is not Rafael Nadal who pulled out of the event in Rotterdam citing the back issues he was suffering with in Australia. However, two other Australian Open Semi Finalists are both in action in the Netherlands with Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas the top two Seeds in Rotterdam this week.

Australian Open Finalist Jennifer Brady is playing in Qatar this week too in what is always two big Middle East tournaments played in back to back weeks on the WTA Tour. This year is slightly different for the Qatar tennis tournament with the ATP event being held back from January and playing next week (where Roger Federer is set to return), but the bigger event tends to be the WTA tournament played here.

Some players have decided to pull out of the event and that has to be do with the travelling and the Adelaide event that was played last week. I don't blame the decision and the focus for those players is likely to rejoin the WTA Tour in Dubai and then move on to the Miami Masters which is set to begin later this month.

A decent end to the week at least limited the effect of some of the poor results that began the tournaments last week, but I am not too impressed with the start made by the Tennis Picks.

I've not really had a lot of luck with players losing sets by wide margins and coming back to win which was the case again on Saturday when Alexander Bublik dropped the first set 2-6, only to win his Semi Final 6-3, 6-4 from that point. That meant he got through, which is his sole concern, but I missed the cover and just need a few things to slightly break back my way to put a winning week together.

That match is one of three or four that seemed to go the same route over the last week, but I do think the plays are still be identified in the right way and a bit more fortune with a couple of points here and there would have seen much greater results.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: A long lay off down to the global crisis brought about by Covid-19 as well as injury issues have affected the early performances of Kei Nishikori.

He returned on the clay at the back end of 2020, but Kei Nishikori did not play any of the hard court events that took place in the final quarter of the season. That has not helped early in 2021 as Nishikori has lost all three matches played in the Australian summer swing and he was largely uncompetitive in all of those defeats.

It should be noted that those did all come against players Ranked inside the top 20 as the draws have not been particularly kind for Kei Nishikori and the same has happened in Rotterdam at a tournament where the Japanese star is perhaps fortunate to earn direct entry. The change in the World Ranking system has kept Nishikori artificially high inside the top 50, but he has a very tough First Round match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who is Ranked inside the top 20 and had a strong couple of tournaments Down Under.

The young Canadian served very big and was also returning pretty well over the last month, although Felix Auger-Aliassime will still be dealing with the disappointment of blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in his Fourth Round defeat to the Qualifier at the Australian Open. There has been time to move past that loss, but Auger-Aliassime is going to have to bring his best tennis to the court to have a deep run in a loaded event.

His numbers have looked good in producing a 7-2 run which includes losing in the Final of an Australian Open warm up event. That will be encouraging to Felix Auger-Aliassime who is facing an opponent in Kei Nishikori who has struggled to hold serve in the first three matches played in 2021.

The former top 5 Ranked player has held just 54% of service games played in 2021 and that has put some intense pressure on Kei Nishikori's return game. He has won less than 35% of return points played on the hard courts over the last month and Kei Nishikori has only produced breaks in 15% of return games played, numbers that could be exposed by Felix Auger-Aliassime if he is anything near the level he has produced so far this season.

This will be a test for Auger-Aliassime, but I think he can get the better of Kei Nishikori in the First Round at Rotterdam. It is a big mark, but if the Canadian serves well, he should be able to find the breaks needed to cover the handicap on his way to the Second Round.

Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: A strong run at the Australian Open will give Marton Fucsovics some confidence, but a change in the World Rankings calculations means he has had to Qualify for the main draw in Rotterdam. Two comfortable win have been enough for Fucsovics to make the main draw and he is a narrow favourite to win his First Round match.

The Hungarian will take on a big serving opponent in Reilly Opelka who is heading to Europe after an underachieving Australian summer. There will be some frustration that he was not able to see off Taylor Fritz in the Second Round at the Australian Open and it meant another early defeat to open the season.

It feels like Reilly Opelka will take over some of what we have come to expect from John Isner as he has a huge serve and a pretty limited return game. In the last two and a bit seasons Reilly Opelka has won at least 92% of the service games played on the hard courts, but his return game has been below average and that has seen him play a number of tie-breakers.

On an indoor hard court I think Reilly Opelka can push Marton Fucsovics, although the latter is serving well enough to believe he can at least rattle through his own service games.

Marton Fucsovics has held over 80% of his service games played on the hard courts this season and I do think he can at least keep on top of his American opponent in the First Round.

A mistake could be costly for either player in any set, but the feeling is that both are going to be able to get through their service games with relative comfort more often than not. Barring giving some points away to set up breaks of serve, I would not be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers to decide which player is able to move through to the Second Round.

Even a two set match could see this total number of games surpassed, but I would not be that surprised if a third set will be needed. I give a slight edge to Marton Fucsovics who has the superior return ability, but the total games approach looks a solid play.

Jennifer Brady - 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Losing a maiden Grand Slam Final could be a tough time for any player to deal with and Jennifer Brady is going to have to dig deep to keep the momentum going. The American had a fantastic run at the Australian Open as she took full advantage of the way the draw opened up for her and Jennifer Brady has been playing like she believes she is one of the best hard court players in the world.

Last year she did play well after reaching the US Open Semi Final and Jennifer Brady reached the Semi Final of another hard court tournament played following that run. She also had a strong run in Dubai and the feeling is that Brady should enjoy the conditions in Qatar as she deals with what is going to be a new target on her back having broken through another barrier by reaching a Grand Slam Final.

In the First Round in Doha Jennifer Brady is taking on Anett Kontaveit who is a very competent hard court player and who has a big game when at her best. The serve is as big a weapon for Anett Kontaveit as it is for Jennifer Brady and it was important in taking the Estonian to the Semi Final of a warm up event for the Australian Open before making the Third Round in the first Grand Slam of 2021.

In that Round Anett Kontaveit was beaten by Shelby Rogers, another big hitting American, and it was a day in which the stronger serving was produced by Rogers. Anett Kontaveit could not really get a handle on the Rogers serve and you do have to feel that Jennifer Brady can take the racquet out of Kontaveit's hands.

The first serve in particularly is going to be key for Jennifer Brady and I think if she can put enough of those in play it is a match that she can win.

The courts tend to play pretty fast in the hot conditions you find in the Middle East at this time of the year and that should favour Jennifer Brady. As long as she has recovered emotionally from the Australian Open Final, the next two weeks should be solid ones for Brady before the Tour moves to Miami.

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: There isn't much I am going to say about this match as I look for Thiago Monteiro to back up his win over Roberto Carballas Baena from Cordoba by doing the same in Buenos Aires.

Last week I picked Monteiro to cover this same mark against the Spaniard and I think he can do the same again even after the disappointing Quarter Final defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. That would have hurt Thiago Monteiro, but it might make him feel a little better that his tennis is in a good place and he was only beaten by someone who went on and won the title in Cordoba.

The Quarter Final was a close one and at 26 years old it does feel like Thiago Monteiro is still improving as a player. His numbers on the clay courts in the last three seasons on both serve and return have demonstrated that improvement and he was playing well in Cordoba.

There is nothing wrong with the level that Roberto Carballas Baena can produce on the clay courts, but this has not been a good match up for him. Losing to Thiago Monteiro last week is not something that would overly concern the Spaniard on its own, but he has lost five matches to Monteiro and the last three have come without winning a set.

In fact Thiago Monteiro has won the last eight sets between the players and the wins have gotten a little more comfortable each time they have met, while all five matches have been won on the clay courts. The numbers have been skewed heavily in favour of Thiago Monteiro in the head to head with 86% of his service games held compared with Roberto Carballas Baena's 68% mark and it was more of the same when they played last week in Cordoba.

As long as Thiago Monteiro doesn't take things for granted, he can win this one too and his overall game looks too strong for Roberto Carballas Baena. With the heavy break percentage advantage in this head to head, I will look for the Brazilian to cover the handicap again.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jennifer Brady - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2021: - 13.64 Units (227.5 Units Staked, - 5.99% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (March 1st)

It was a difficult start to the week, but I have stuck with what has been working for much of the 2018 and 2019 seasons and things have turned around. A strong Thursday means this is likely to be another positive week to put into the books, although I don't want to spend any time patting myself on the back and instead focus on continuing to pick the winners.

On Friday we are down to the Semi Final matches at the tournaments in Dubai and Acapulco while the Sao Paulo event has got to the Quarter Final Round. All of those matches are scheduled to played on the one day and I will add any Picks from markets that have yet to be put together to this thread during the day.

Before that you can read my Picks that have been made from the Tennis to come as well as the update to the weekly totals with all of the selections from Thursday completed much earlier than I thought they would be.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: The first Semi Final to be played at the ATP Dubai tournament is a rematch of a Quarter Final that was played at ATP Sofia earlier this month. On that occasion it was Gael Monfils who got the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas to earn a measure of revenge for a defeat to the young Greek superstar at the back end of 2018 on the hard courts in Shanghai.

Both players have been in very good form in February and that makes this a fascinating Semi Final. Both Monfils and Tsitsipas have won titles this month on the indoor hard courts, but they have backed up good performances throughout the 2019 season by continuing that form in the move to outdoor hard court tennis.

The next month is a big chance for Monfils and Tsitsipas to also build some huge World Ranking points with the opportunity to play for the title here in front of them before tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami.

It has to be said the layers are finding it hard to separate the two players because they have both been serving very well and backing that up with solid returning. Out of the two players Tsitsipas is perhaps overachieving a lot more than Monfils when it comes to the performance on the return of serve and he had a much tougher Quarter Final to get through which could lead to potential fatigue after winning the title in Marseille last week.

However it does feel like it will be potentially a very close match as Tsitsipas will be able to put his big serves together to keep Monfils at bay. In their two previous matches there really hasn't been a lot between them, but the key has been the way the Frenchman has been able to just get the better of the returning game compared with Tsitsipas and I think that will be the case in Dubai too.

A three set match would not surprise me, but I think Gael Monfils will just get the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas and he can cover the number in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-12, + 7.94 Units (60 Units Staked, + 13.23% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (March 1st)

I looked through the Thursday matches from Dubai and Sao Paulo and could not find an option I was comfortable with, even if I think Malek Jaziri is perhaps a touch under-rated to win his Quarter Final.

That was the closest match I was willing to pull the trigger on, but ultimately the decision was made to wait for the Acapulco Quarter Finals where both the ATP and WTA event taking place was scheduling all eight matches on Thursday.

It will ensure the tournament is concluded very much in time ahead of the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells which begins in less than a week. The two big tournaments in the United States coming up will conclude the first half of the hard court season before the switch to clay and the build up to the second Grand Slam of the season at Roland Garros will begin.


Feliciano Lopez v Jared Donaldson: The layers are having a hard time pricing up this Quarter Final and it is the veteran Spaniard Feliciano Lopez who goes into it as the narrow underdog against Jared Donaldson.

Both men have played well to get through to the Quarter Final, but I think Donaldson's win over Matthew Ebden and the fashion in which it came has influenced the prices too far in one direction.

As impressive as the win was, Donaldson has not played as well as he would have liked when he has been faced up with those higher up the World Rankings. He has particularly suffered when it comes to the return of serve against players Ranked inside the top 50 and that has to be an issue when facing Lopez who has been serving very well so far this week.

Lopez has two better looking wins behind him this week as he has taken advantage of Rafael Nadal's withdrawal from Acapulco. He has been serving at almost his very best level, but has also impressed with the return of serve and I think he can put enough pressure on Donaldson to beat the American.

It could need three sets to separate them and a couple of tie-breakers can't be ruled out, but I will look for the Lopez serve to be the difference maker and help him through to the Semi Final.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: I will be the first to admit that Alexander Zverev was not only fortunate to cover for me on Wednesday, but he is perhaps lucky to take his place in the Quarter Final in Acapulco. He will need to be a lot better if he is going to see off Ryan Harrison in this match, although the American also played the big points just about well enough to get through his own Second Round match.

There has been a lot to like about the way Harrison has played his tennis in 2018, although the allegations made by Donald Young after a recent match between the two in New York have been ugly. The ramifications have yet to be seen, but Harrison has managed to focus on the court having lost his next two matches in the fall out of the incident with Young.

Harrison has been serving at a high standard in 2018 which has helped him produce some solid results but there is no doubt that someone like Zverev should be able to make him work that little bit harder.

While the Zverev return has some room for improvement, I think he can make enough balls and get into the Harrison backhand to have success.

The young German's own serve has been an important weapon for him and I don't think Harrison is as strong on the return which should mean Zverev is under less pressure than he was on Wednesday. There will be moments Harrison is able to produce a couple of solid returns off back to back serves, but ultimately I would imagine Zverev has the majority of chances in this match.

I will back him to cover this number on his way through to the Semi Final.


Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung: This should be a fascinating match up between the big server and the quality returner when Kevin Anderson and Hyeon Chung meet in the Quarter Final in Acapulco.

The return has been the spark for Chung in 2018 as he made his breakthrough at the Australian Open and it has continued to be very important to a player who is tipped to win Grand Slam titles in the years ahead.

However he will have to get a read on the huge serve that Anderson has at his disposal and the big South African has been in fine form himself in 2018. The exception was a disappointing Australian Open for the US Open Finalist, but he has reached the Final of Pune and Anderson is on a six match winning run having taken the title in New York.

Anderson has also been returning well enough to believe he can get after Chung's serve, which is still a little erratic, and I think he will have enough to get past the youngster who had a long week in Delray Beach a few days ago.

Chung has been in fine form this week so has to be respected, but I like Anderson to find a way to get past him for the win and a place in the Semi Final. The serve may just produce enough cheap points to win the match with key points won behind that weapon for Anderson to get through.


Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: The head to head is hugely in favour of Lesia Tsurenko but I was still surprised the layers have made the lower Ranked player the favourite in this Quarter Final.

They've got it right in my opinion and I do think Tsurenko is going to be able to see of Kristina Mladenovic who is due a significant drop down the World Rankings. That may not happen until after the French Open with huge points to defend from 2017, but Mladenovic has been struggling as a Singles player for some time.

She has won two matches in Acapulco and reached the Final here last season which makes the Frenchwoman dangerous, but that run to the Final ended in a relatively comfortable loss against Tsurenko. Mladenovic was also a little fortunate to come through her Second Round match here and it can't be denied that Tsurenko has looked much stronger so far this week.

The Tsurenko wins have come in the manner that would have been expected and she can be hard to really trust when you think how erratic she can be. However the confidence of having won five of six previous matches against Mladenovic including here in Acapulco last year should also put Tsurenko in a good place.

I think Tsurenko will be able to work her way past Mladenovic in this Quarter Final and I will back her to win and cover the number of games being asked.


Shuai Zhang - 2.5 games v Rebecca Peterson: Any time a player is able to come through the Qualifiers and produce a couple of dominant wins in the main draw they have to be respected for being in very strong form. Rebecca Peterson has yet to drop a set in Acapulco in her four wins and she has dominated the four opponents she has met which makes her a real threat in this Quarter Final.

Beating up both Monica Puig and Alize Cornet are impressive performances from Peterson, but she will have to maintain standards against Shuai Zhang.

Zhang has not been as convincing in her wins as Peterson, but generally she plays at a much higher level than the Swedish player. The erratic nature of Zhang's performances have to be taken on board, but I think she will challenge Peterson more than her last two opponents have been able to do and I like the chances of her winning this one.

These two met a few months ago and it resulted in a comfortable win for Zhang, but I would be surprised if that happens again with Peterson playing the way she is.

However I do think Zhang can get the better of the key moments in this match which should give her every chance of moving into her first Semi Final in 2018 and also cover the number of games being asked of her.

MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-10, - 7.10 Units (34 Units Staked, - 20.88% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (March 1st)

Tuesday was a really busy day of tennis at the various tournaments being played around the world. With the majority of First Round matches being played on Tuesday, it does mean we have to wait for the full matches to be revealed for Wednesday and so I will add any picks from the ATP Sao Paulo, ATP Acapulco and WTA Acapulco tournaments on Wednesday.

I will start with the picks from the ATP Dubai tournament being played and will add any other picks during the day.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Daniel Evans: One of the biggest strengths of Daniel Evans' game is not the power or the variation, but the awkwardness that he brings to the court which can mentally wear down a lot of players. He is working harder than he has perhaps ever done in his career, but I do think Evans is some way short of the best players on the Tour on pure talent and playing shots that opponents are not really expecting to see, and thus find difficult to deal with, has been a key for Evans so far this season.

That awkward style can give Gael Monfils some problems considering the Frenchman can be a player that looks for the flashy shots to entertain the crowds. Those shots are usually low percentage ones and has prevented Monfils really from fulfilling the potential many thought he had.

There are times when Monfils looks more focused and about to really kick on his career, but those have been far too fleeting. He was a comfortable First Round win against an overmatched opponent, but Monfils will know he needs to be better if he is going to get the better of Evans in this Second Round encounter.

You do have to give Monfils the edge when it comes to the serve, but he has to work out that Evans is going to use a lot of slice off his backhand wing and doing that is a key to the match. If Monfils can start bringing himself a little forward, he can force Evans to try and hit through the ball off that wing which can lead to mistakes, while the British players serve is not the biggest on the Tour.

Evans has had some impressive wins in 2017, but I think Monfils gets the better of him in a 7-6, 6-3 win in Dubai as his superior athleticism and bigger serve prove to be a difference maker at critical times.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: Despite some obvious signs that Tomas Berdych has regressed as a player from the days of being a permanent feature inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, I still think he is good enough to win matches like this one.

Berdych faces Robin Haase in the Second Round in Dubai and there is no doubt the Dutchman has a big game, but one that can see him produce some big errors at time as he gives himself little margin for error. The serve is a solid weapon, but Haase does not always back that up effectively and Berdych can still make enough solid returns to earn a couple of break points in the match.

The Berdych serve is not as strong as it once was, but he should still enjoy plenty of short balls coming back from Haase as well as his fair share of unreturnable serves. That should keep the pressure on Haase to match Berdych and I do think will lead to a couple of mental collapses at key points of this match.

The last few weeks have seen Haase be very competitive in matches which makes him dangerous to oppose with this number of games. He has pushed played like David Goffin, Alexander Zverev and Richard Gasquet the distance in matches, but I think Berdych may still be a little too solid for Haase.

Even though he is not he player he once was, Berdych has actually won plenty of matches in 2017 by a margin which would cover this number. I am looking for Berdych to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win in this one and move onto the Thursday Quarter Finals.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: No one expected Roger Federer to really win the Australian Open after the long lay off from the Tour, but he was very good there and has opened his tournament in Dubai with a one-sided win. Federer has enjoyed playing here throughout his career and he should have too much for the Qualifier Evgeny Donskoy in the Second Round.

As well as Donskoy has done to come through three matches in Dubai to reach the Second Round, 2017 has seen him lose some matches in one-sided fashion as he can mentally struggle to stay in a match. While playing the 18 time Grand Slam Champion is going to give Donskoy plenty of motivation to try and challenge Federer, I do wonder if he can stay with the Swiss star.

Federer serves well enough to put the pressure on Donskoy, but he has also looked healthy moving around the court in the First Round win over Benoit Paire. That should mean Federer is able to get into the Donskoy service games and I can see him breaking at least three times over the course of this match which should be enough to cover this number.

There will definitely be enough chances for Federer to break serve that many times and it is about converting those opportunities when they come his way. I do think Federer is able to do that and can come through this match with a 6-1, 6-4 win behind him.


I am adding picks from Acapulco and Sao Paulo in the 'MY PICKS' section after a slightly busier day has meant I can't make full breakdowns today.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 1.96 Units (26 Units Staked, - 7.54% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (March 1-2)

With the European Championships taking place in France in June, the domestic season in England usually is ended slightly earlier than usual so the national team has enough time to prepare together for the Finals.

That does mean that there are a few of these midweek rounds of Premier League fixtures scattered through the course of the season and we have another this week. At this time of the season every game means so much more with the fixture list beginning to run down and this Tuesday/Wednesday is no different when it comes to the title and relegation battles which are warming up nicely.

Injuries, managing a crowded fixture list and picking the right teams to win the points is the reason these managers get paid as much as they do and there are some wonderful Premier League games on schedule in the coming days.


February followed January in being a strong month for the picks made and I am looking for March to continue the momentum after a terrible opening four months of the 2015/16 season. There has been no chasing which is always the key to preventing things from going bad to horrific, but the little elements of luck have most definitely been with me rather than against me in the last couple of months.

Hopefully Lady Luck has found no reason to desert me just yet.


Bournemouth v Southampton Pick: When you think the last time Bournemouth hosted Southampton in this south coast derby was only five seasons ago, it is hard to imagine both clubs were in League One at the time. Both have improved markedly from then, although Bournemouth still have a big task to ensure they are still playing at the same level as Southampton in the Premier League next season.

I am not going to criticise Eddie Howe for the brand of football that he insists Bournemouth play, but at this moment they need to knuckle down and grind out a result. They did that at Watford on Saturday, but it can be more difficult at home where the supporters want Bournemouth to get forward.

The fact is that Bournemouth have struggled at both ends of the pitch in recent weeks and that is highlighted by their 4 losses in their last 5 games at The Vitality Stadium. In all of those losses they have conceded at least twice, although they may feel that Southampton are not the kind of team that will score a lot of goals.

Ronald Koeman bases his tactics on a very solid defensive foundation and I don't think Southampton will change that style even if their 6 clean sheets in a row came to an end this past weekend. This is still a very solid Premier League team and I think they look overpriced to come to Bournemouth and become the latest to leave with the victory.

Bournemouth do put teams under pressure with their possession based game and ability to get crosses into the box, but Southampton shouldn't be as big a price as this. This is a team that has won 2 of their last 3 away games in the Premier League and have kept clean sheets in each of those games so Southampton should have the belief to win here and I will have a small interest they do that.

The Saints did lose at Norwich City at the start of January, but they have been improved since and worthy of a small interest.


Aston Villa v Everton Pick: Everton have had over a week off thanks to the Merseyside derby being postponed this weekend with Liverpool playing in the League Cup Final. This is an important time for Roberto Martinez after it was announced a new investor had arrived at Goodison Park and the Spaniard in the manager position has to get the fans onside to make sure any managerial changes are not made.

It has been something of a mixed response that Martinez has gotten from the Everton fans as they feel this is a team that should be much higher in the Premier League table. They can move back into the top half with a win at Villa Park where the fans have completely turned against their side and the inevitable drop into the Championship.

I really worry for Aston Villa who might be 8 points off safety, but who haven't shown they will get enough out of their remaining eleven games to get out of trouble. Another defeat on Saturday has kept them in a terrible spot, but I fear that this is a club that may slide through the Leagues in the next couple of years.

I don't see enough quality nor those who will have the stomach for the fight in the Championship and who knows if Remi Garde will really feel he is the man to restore this famous old club. Recent home losses to Manchester City (0-4) and Liverpool (0-6) have been bordering on the ridiculous having moved past embarrassing and Aston Villa had lost back to back home games against Everton before beating them last season.

With the team at Everton's disposal I expect them to get back to winning ways here. Everton have won 3 straight away games in all competitions and I think they can play with more freedom away from home without the same expectation they have at Goodison Park and I will back Everton to win here.


Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: You have to be impressed with the character and belief that Guus Hiddink has restored to the Chelsea side and the confidence has followed that. A 1-2 win at Southampton means Chelsea are very much in line to challenge for European places through their Premier League finish even if the priority is now on the Cup competitions in the FA Cup and Champions League.

Recent performances under Hiddink suggests Chelsea are close to being at their best and I am expecting them to be too strong for a Norwich City side who are struggling. Confidence has to be in a bad place on a poor run, but losing 1-0 at Leicester City in the final moments of that game will have been a huge body blow to the side.

Now they have to host Chelsea having conceded at least twice in their last 4 home games in all competitions. That includes conceding three times to Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur and now they face a Chelsea team that have looked much more threatening going forward.

The Blues have won 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and have crushed the likes of Crystal Palace and the MK Dons and now they face a team that might not have too much belief if they fall behind. Chelsea should be too good and I think they might win this by at least a two goal margin and have to be worth backing to cover the one goal Asian Handicap at Carrow Road.


Arsenal v Swansea City Pick: Obviously as a Manchester United fan I was delighted with the performance, or lack thereof, that Arsenal produced at Old Trafford on Sunday. However as someone who might look to determine a Premier League title winner, I think Arsenal need to have a right good look in the mirror and ask themselves if they really believe they are capable of being Champions for the first time since 2004.

I have to think Arsene Wenger was absolutely disgusted by what he had seen on the pitch at Old Trafford and this is a big test for Arsenal to bounce back immediately. The late winner over Leicester City was supposed to propel Arsenal forward, but they have failed to win any of 3 games since and the defeat to an injury hit Manchester United was the most disappointing performance of them all.

This has been a tough fixture for Arsenal in recent seasons as they have failed to win any of 3 Premier League home games against Swansea City and been beaten in 2 of those games.

However it has to be said that this Swansea City team have to be short of confidence having been dominated by Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday and failing to hold onto a 0-1 lead they had in that game. Only an inspired display from Lukasz Fabianski kept the score respectable and I do think Arsenal are a team that can perform better when the pressure is off.

Depending on what Leicester City do on Tuesday evening, Arsenal might feel they have been ruled out of the title race and can string together some positive results. This is a must win game for them and I do think Swansea City are a team that will allow them to play their football and can be punished for that.

If Fabianski is not quite at the races, I think Arsenal will win this one comfortably enough on Wednesday and will back them to bounce back from Sunday with a win by at least two goals.


Stoke City v Newcastle United Pick: The Premier League has been a very competitive Division and that is partly down to the fact that teams have struggled for their consistency through the course of the season. Stoke City are the highlight of those teams with some really good performances mixed in with some really atrocious ones.

They have been very strong against the teams struggling in the Division and Stoke City will look at Newcastle United as another one of those teams. Of the 6 Premier League wins at The Brittania Stadium this season, Stoke City have beaten 2 of the bottom 4 clubs and I do think they will be too strong for this Newcastle United.

Coming off the warm weather training and not having a competitive game for over two weeks is tough to overcome for Newcastle United who were active in the transfer window. They have a big Premier League game at home on Saturday when they host Bournemouth and a slow start here will give Stoke City the edge.

It has been a fixture Stoke City have enjoyed with 3 straight home wins over Newcastle United behind them and I do think The Potters have the positive momentum behind them. Newcastle United have lost 6 in a row away from home in all competitions and injuries have been a major factor against them.

At odds against I think Stoke City can be backed to pick up the three points and keep their Europa League ambitions alive.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This London derby should really have had the television cameras in town for the live showing as both West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur put some long unbeaten runs at home/away respectively on the line. It is a huge game for both clubs who have some big ambitions at the upper end of the Premier League table and I think it is much closer than the layers believe.

I have a lot of respect for the way Tottenham Hotspur have played away from home and I can see why the layers won't take chances with their price. However I am not convinced they should only just odds against to win here, especially when you consider how well West Ham United have played at Upton Park.

The likes of Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Manchester City have tried to snap a long unbeaten run for West Ham United at home in the Premier League, but all failed. The Hammers have no love lost for Tottenham Hotspur so the fans will be completely behind their team and there is enough attacking talent to give the away side a lot of problems.

I do think the pace of Tottenham Hotspur makes them a threat on the counter-attack themselves and this has all the hallmarks of a really exciting game.

Before the 1-0 win over Sunderland, West Ham United had scored at least twice in 4 straight home Premier League games. Anyone who saw the game on Saturday will know West Ham United had plenty of chances to make that 5 in a row, but they also looked vulnerable defensively which is an area Tottenham Hotspur can exploit.

Tottenham Hotspur have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games, but they have also had a single clean sheet their last 5.

It does point to there being goals in this one and I prefer backing at least three to be scored than any Tottenham Hotspur price at evens. West Ham United certainly won't be rolling over for Tottenham Hotspur and this looks like being a 2-1 scoreline or a 2-2 draw to me and I will back there being at least three goals shared out.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The game at Wembley Stadium caught fire in the second half and better finishing from the likes of Raheem Sterling would have seen Manchester City win that game in normal time. Both teams have had to play the additional extra time and then the emotion of the penalty shoot-out and I think both squads will have some fatigue.

There were chances at both ends of the League Cup Final and mental tiredness might lead to more mistakes from both of these defences. I can see Liverpool and Manchester City creating chances and the need for the three points should keep both teams pushing forward with both Jurgen Klopp and Manuel Pellegrini advocating attacking football.

I picked there being goals when the teams met on Sunday and only barely missed out thanks to some erratic finishing and fine goalkeeping through the game, particularly from Simon Mignolet.

If he produces that level again I might be disappointed, but I have to think this game will likely produce at least three goals. The mental and physical tiredness should give the attacking players a little more room to find space to create chances and score goals.

I would be hoping for the quality players to show more composure and backing at least three goals to be shared out in a fixture that tends to produce plenty of goalmouth action looks to be the call.


Manchester United v Watford Pick: When I saw the line up that Manchester United had to put out and the one that Arsenal had on Sunday, I really didn't think Manchester United had a lot of hope in that game. However it was a strong performance from the home team for the most part, but that will all be for nought if they unable to back it up with a win over Watford on Wednesday.

It has been the games against the 'smaller' teams in the Premier League where Manchester United have been let down and they have to be careful not to underestimate their opponents. There is plenty of pace in the Watford forward line which can give a makeshift back four something to think about and some of the Manchester United defending hasn't been convincing.

Credit where credit is due though and I do think there have been better attacking phases from Manchester United. Memphis Depay has arguably had two of his bette performances in a Manchester United shirt, while Marcus Rashford has been a real find for them in the last couple of games.

I do think this is going to be a difficult match for Manchester United as Watford have shown their ability through much of the season. They haven't been as strong away from home although I still expect them to pose problems as they did for Chelsea and knowing Manchester United have looked vulnerable in defence in recent games.

The layers are sticking with their thoughts that Manchester United and Watford games have not been producing a lot of goals recently. However I think Manchester United have definitely looked better going forward without the defence quite following suit thanks to injuries and I can see both teams scoring in this one.

My feeling is that Manchester United will still win the game though and I will back at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.

MY PICKS: Southampton @ 2.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Everton @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
West Ham United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)

January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)

December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)

September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 107-151-2, - 17.55 Units (572 Units Staked, - 3.07% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (March 1st)

We are now just days away from the first Masters tournament of the season at Indian Wells and we are now in a position where two of the tournaments being played this week are going to be coming to a close on Saturday.

It has been a very strong week for the picks and is one of those weeks that you just don't want to see draw to a close as four straight days with winning picks means the season total is also going to be in a very good place despite what has been an up and down first two months of the season.

The bottom line is you have to treat weeks like this the same as when you have a bad week as that is the way it goes over the course of an eleven month season. By keeping an even keel and trying to see what has been working and what hasn't is the only way improvements can be made to ensure this will be another season with a winning record at the end of it.


Roger Federer v Tomas Berdych- Three Sets Played: I am not surprised the layers are not separating these two players by huge prices as both Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych fans would have strong arguments as to which of their players will win the title here in Dubai.

It may be Federer that owns the 11-6 head to head record between the players, but Berdych is 5-3 in the last 8 matches between them and came from a set behind to beat Roger Federer in the Semi Final here twelve months ago.

You have to like the way Berdych has been playing over the last month and he has been serving effectively to think he will cause problems for Federer, even if the latter brings the ultra-aggressive tennis to the court that disrupted Novak Djokovic in the final two sets of the Semi Final that was played on Friday.

Matches between these two have generally been tight and competitive and it only takes a point or two either way to decide who wins the sets. I am just finding it hard to believe that either player would wilt away in this Final and I have a feeling it will produce a deciding set for the title here.

I can make a strong argument for both players winning so I will just keep the pick simple and back this match to go the distance.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer-Tomas Berdych Three Sets Played @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-6, + 14.76 Units (37 Units Staked, + 39.89% Yield)

Tennis Picks (March 1st)

It is Semi Final time at most of the tournaments taking place this week and these will be the picks I am going with on this day.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: I wouldn't normally start a pick with this sentence but Juan Martin Del Potro would absolutely cover this spread if he was serving to the peak of his power.

When Del Potro is on fire with his serve, it can be very difficult for opponent's to break, especially in a case like this when they may have to break serve three times to cover the spread if Del Potro is serving first.

However, I do feel there have been signs this week that all is not well with the Argentinian and he has had to fight his way through a couple of really tough occasions, most notably against Marcos Baghdatis in the First Round. Now he faces Novak Djokovic, the best returner in the Men's game at this moment in time, and I think Del Potro could be forced under pressure in the match.

That has been the case in their three most recent meetings since the Olympics as Djokovic has made enough effective returns to force Del Potro to beat him in rallies and the World Number 1 has been a little too good for him. The added issue of a slight wrist injury for Del Potro makes his task that much harder and I think Djokovic will be able to come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.


Roger Federer to win 2-1 v Tomas Berdych: It is funny to think that Tomas Berdych has a 4-3 head to head lead over Roger Federer in the last 7 matches they have played and I don't think too many people would know that as these two meet for the first time since the US Open Quarter Final won by Berdych last season.

Berdych is certainly playing well enough to beat Federer again, especially as I am not 100% convinced with the way the latter has been playing, but it is a big task in Dubai which is essentially Federer's second home. However, the Czech player certainly has the power and consistency to trouble Federer big time in this one.

I very much did consider a small interest in Berdych, but Federer's record in Dubai is tough to ignore and I can see him just about getting through. However, it is unlikely to be in straight sets as Berdych has only been beaten in straights by Federer in 1 of their previous 8 matches and that was on an indoor hard court in Paris, probably Federer's favourite conditions these days.

This match is outdoor and I do think Berdych is capable of taking at least a set, but I do think Federer will ultimately prevail in what should be a fascinating second Semi Final.


Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Daniel Munoz-De La Nava: Both of these players have had to come through the qualifiers and have done very well to reach the Quarter Finals.

Ernests Gulbis has knocked off two Americans on his way and he certainly looks capable of big things this week, as I mentioned in my outright picks earlier this week. He is a former winner at Delray Beach and I think he will be a little too good for Daniel Munoz-De La Nava in this one.

My biggest issue with Gulbis this week is his service, which hasn't been as effective as it was in the last couple of weeks on the indoor hard courts in Europe. That means he will give Munoz-De La Nava a chance. The Spaniard already has a couple of very good looking wins from his time this week, but he generally plays the majority of his tennis on the Challenger Tour.

I expect Gulbis to have chances and he has a good chance of recording a 6-3, 6-4 win as long as he can get his serve firing a little better.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Ivan Dodig: Tommy Haas played some very good tennis in his win over Denis Istomin and I think he will be following that up with another in this match against Ivan Dodig.

I was impressed that Haas was so comfortable on serve and also the amount of chances he created on the Istomin serve. The German should be able to do the same against Ivan Dodig, a player that is very capable behind serve but is also guilty of throwing in a bad couple of games in each set.

The spread looked a little low to me and does take into account that Dodig has had a couple of days rest between matches as Haas' match was delayed due to the rain.

Yesterday, Haas missed a lot of break point chances and I don't think he can afford to do that again. However, the North American hard courts suit Haas just fine and I think he'll be able to grab a break of serve more than Dodig in each set and come through with 6-4, 6-4 win.


David Ferrer - 6.5 games v Fabio Fognini: This is a very high spread for a player to cover, but David Ferrer has the warrior's mentality of fighting for every ball which will make life very tough for Fabio Fognini.

The Italian is a hard player to get a read on as he can suddenly start popping winners all over the place and playing some real consistent tennis, but too often he can also 'tank' away a set when he thinks he is reserving energy.

It is the latter issue that should cost him the cover in this one as David Ferrer has every chance of recording a 6-1 or 6-2 set and that should set him on the way. They actually met last week in Buenos Aires in what was a comfortable win for Ferrer.

This should be closer, but I still think Ferrer will wear down Fognini mentally and force the Italian to go for too much and end up a 6-2, 6-3 winner.


Nicolas Almagro + 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Rafael Nadal has proclaimed that he is getting 'better and better' with each passing match here in Acapulco and that the last three wins he has had here are the best he has felt and played since returning from injury.

That doesn't bode well for Nicolas Almagro who has lost all 8 matches on the professional Tour against Nadal including 6 on clay. However, this is the best chance he'll have to reverse that form and pull out the surprise win, although I am keeping the games on my side in this one.

Almagro has been serving well this week and that is what may just keep him in the match and possibly spring the surprise. While Nadal has won comfortably this week, he is still not at 100% so there should be chances for Almagro on his serve too and I do think this will be much closer than the layers clearly do.

Generally, Nadal has dismissed the Almagro challenge on the clay courts with no problem, but I do think this will be close and perhaps similar to their French Open meeting in 2010 which finished 7-6, 7-6, 6-4 to Nadal.


Sara Errani - 5.5 games v Alize Cornet: Sara Errani is the defending Champion here in Acapulco and I think she is going to be able to take advantage of Alize Cornet who needed over 3 and a half hours to get through her Quarter Final match. That match finished late into the Acapulco night and I think Cornet could suffer a bit of hangover in this one.

The fact is that Errani is consistent enough to take Cornet into the deep water in this one and the variation used by the Italian can also be mentally draining at times. When your legs are feeling heavy, the last thing a player needs is to face someone that will stay out there all day long and that is the big problem for Cornet in this one.

Errani beat Cornet 6-3, 6-2 on a hard court last season and won 61% of the points against the Cornet serve. With all the physical and mental effort put into the Quarter Final, I think Errani will come close to matching that score.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer to win 2-1 in sets @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7-1, - 0.06 Units (29 Units Staked, 0% Yield)