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Monday 1 March 2021

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 1st)

Interestingly it feels like an almost normal part of the Tennis Tour that we are moving on to four new events that are set to be played this week and from various parts of the world.

We have two big events in Rotterdam for the Men and Qatar for the Women, with two regular Tour level events in Buenos Aires and Lyon too. That means there are some very big names out there in a bid to improve their World Rankings with the system likely to be restored to the usual one year Rankings rather than the two year Rankings used during the global pandemic.

As the Tour begins to move into a more regular feel, there are further positives to take for ourselves as we head towards what should be a more 'regular' time too. I am still awaiting the first vaccine shot, which I will be taking as soon as it is possible, but I am feeling more positive that there are going to be fuller crowds for the Tennis Tour to enjoy the longer we go into the year.


I have mentioned there will be some big names out on the courts this week, but one of those is not Rafael Nadal who pulled out of the event in Rotterdam citing the back issues he was suffering with in Australia. However, two other Australian Open Semi Finalists are both in action in the Netherlands with Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas the top two Seeds in Rotterdam this week.

Australian Open Finalist Jennifer Brady is playing in Qatar this week too in what is always two big Middle East tournaments played in back to back weeks on the WTA Tour. This year is slightly different for the Qatar tennis tournament with the ATP event being held back from January and playing next week (where Roger Federer is set to return), but the bigger event tends to be the WTA tournament played here.

Some players have decided to pull out of the event and that has to be do with the travelling and the Adelaide event that was played last week. I don't blame the decision and the focus for those players is likely to rejoin the WTA Tour in Dubai and then move on to the Miami Masters which is set to begin later this month.


A decent end to the week at least limited the effect of some of the poor results that began the tournaments last week, but I am not too impressed with the start made by the Tennis Picks.

I've not really had a lot of luck with players losing sets by wide margins and coming back to win which was the case again on Saturday when Alexander Bublik dropped the first set 2-6, only to win his Semi Final 6-3, 6-4 from that point. That meant he got through, which is his sole concern, but I missed the cover and just need a few things to slightly break back my way to put a winning week together.

That match is one of three or four that seemed to go the same route over the last week, but I do think the plays are still be identified in the right way and a bit more fortune with a couple of points here and there would have seen much greater results.


Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: A long lay off down to the global crisis brought about by Covid-19 as well as injury issues have affected the early performances of Kei Nishikori.

He returned on the clay at the back end of 2020, but Kei Nishikori did not play any of the hard court events that took place in the final quarter of the season. That has not helped early in 2021 as Nishikori has lost all three matches played in the Australian summer swing and he was largely uncompetitive in all of those defeats.

It should be noted that those did all come against players Ranked inside the top 20 as the draws have not been particularly kind for Kei Nishikori and the same has happened in Rotterdam at a tournament where the Japanese star is perhaps fortunate to earn direct entry. The change in the World Ranking system has kept Nishikori artificially high inside the top 50, but he has a very tough First Round match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who is Ranked inside the top 20 and had a strong couple of tournaments Down Under.

The young Canadian served very big and was also returning pretty well over the last month, although Felix Auger-Aliassime will still be dealing with the disappointment of blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in his Fourth Round defeat to the Qualifier at the Australian Open. There has been time to move past that loss, but Auger-Aliassime is going to have to bring his best tennis to the court to have a deep run in a loaded event.

His numbers have looked good in producing a 7-2 run which includes losing in the Final of an Australian Open warm up event. That will be encouraging to Felix Auger-Aliassime who is facing an opponent in Kei Nishikori who has struggled to hold serve in the first three matches played in 2021.

The former top 5 Ranked player has held just 54% of service games played in 2021 and that has put some intense pressure on Kei Nishikori's return game. He has won less than 35% of return points played on the hard courts over the last month and Kei Nishikori has only produced breaks in 15% of return games played, numbers that could be exposed by Felix Auger-Aliassime if he is anything near the level he has produced so far this season.

This will be a test for Auger-Aliassime, but I think he can get the better of Kei Nishikori in the First Round at Rotterdam. It is a big mark, but if the Canadian serves well, he should be able to find the breaks needed to cover the handicap on his way to the Second Round.


Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: A strong run at the Australian Open will give Marton Fucsovics some confidence, but a change in the World Rankings calculations means he has had to Qualify for the main draw in Rotterdam. Two comfortable win have been enough for Fucsovics to make the main draw and he is a narrow favourite to win his First Round match.

The Hungarian will take on a big serving opponent in Reilly Opelka who is heading to Europe after an underachieving Australian summer. There will be some frustration that he was not able to see off Taylor Fritz in the Second Round at the Australian Open and it meant another early defeat to open the season.

It feels like Reilly Opelka will take over some of what we have come to expect from John Isner as he has a huge serve and a pretty limited return game. In the last two and a bit seasons Reilly Opelka has won at least 92% of the service games played on the hard courts, but his return game has been below average and that has seen him play a number of tie-breakers.

On an indoor hard court I think Reilly Opelka can push Marton Fucsovics, although the latter is serving well enough to believe he can at least rattle through his own service games.

Marton Fucsovics has held over 80% of his service games played on the hard courts this season and I do think he can at least keep on top of his American opponent in the First Round.

A mistake could be costly for either player in any set, but the feeling is that both are going to be able to get through their service games with relative comfort more often than not. Barring giving some points away to set up breaks of serve, I would not be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers to decide which player is able to move through to the Second Round.

Even a two set match could see this total number of games surpassed, but I would not be that surprised if a third set will be needed. I give a slight edge to Marton Fucsovics who has the superior return ability, but the total games approach looks a solid play.


Jennifer Brady - 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Losing a maiden Grand Slam Final could be a tough time for any player to deal with and Jennifer Brady is going to have to dig deep to keep the momentum going. The American had a fantastic run at the Australian Open as she took full advantage of the way the draw opened up for her and Jennifer Brady has been playing like she believes she is one of the best hard court players in the world.

Last year she did play well after reaching the US Open Semi Final and Jennifer Brady reached the Semi Final of another hard court tournament played following that run. She also had a strong run in Dubai and the feeling is that Brady should enjoy the conditions in Qatar as she deals with what is going to be a new target on her back having broken through another barrier by reaching a Grand Slam Final.

In the First Round in Doha Jennifer Brady is taking on Anett Kontaveit who is a very competent hard court player and who has a big game when at her best. The serve is as big a weapon for Anett Kontaveit as it is for Jennifer Brady and it was important in taking the Estonian to the Semi Final of a warm up event for the Australian Open before making the Third Round in the first Grand Slam of 2021.

In that Round Anett Kontaveit was beaten by Shelby Rogers, another big hitting American, and it was a day in which the stronger serving was produced by Rogers. Anett Kontaveit could not really get a handle on the Rogers serve and you do have to feel that Jennifer Brady can take the racquet out of Kontaveit's hands.

The first serve in particularly is going to be key for Jennifer Brady and I think if she can put enough of those in play it is a match that she can win.

The courts tend to play pretty fast in the hot conditions you find in the Middle East at this time of the year and that should favour Jennifer Brady. As long as she has recovered emotionally from the Australian Open Final, the next two weeks should be solid ones for Brady before the Tour moves to Miami.


Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: There isn't much I am going to say about this match as I look for Thiago Monteiro to back up his win over Roberto Carballas Baena from Cordoba by doing the same in Buenos Aires.

Last week I picked Monteiro to cover this same mark against the Spaniard and I think he can do the same again even after the disappointing Quarter Final defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. That would have hurt Thiago Monteiro, but it might make him feel a little better that his tennis is in a good place and he was only beaten by someone who went on and won the title in Cordoba.

The Quarter Final was a close one and at 26 years old it does feel like Thiago Monteiro is still improving as a player. His numbers on the clay courts in the last three seasons on both serve and return have demonstrated that improvement and he was playing well in Cordoba.

There is nothing wrong with the level that Roberto Carballas Baena can produce on the clay courts, but this has not been a good match up for him. Losing to Thiago Monteiro last week is not something that would overly concern the Spaniard on its own, but he has lost five matches to Monteiro and the last three have come without winning a set.

In fact Thiago Monteiro has won the last eight sets between the players and the wins have gotten a little more comfortable each time they have met, while all five matches have been won on the clay courts. The numbers have been skewed heavily in favour of Thiago Monteiro in the head to head with 86% of his service games held compared with Roberto Carballas Baena's 68% mark and it was more of the same when they played last week in Cordoba.

As long as Thiago Monteiro doesn't take things for granted, he can win this one too and his overall game looks too strong for Roberto Carballas Baena. With the heavy break percentage advantage in this head to head, I will look for the Brazilian to cover the handicap again.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2021: - 13.64 Units (227.5 Units Staked, - 5.99% Yield)

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