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Friday 19 March 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (March 19-21)

I honestly don't know how players feel, but they have to be understandably exhausted if us fans are beginning to feel the amount of Football that has been played over the last few months.

With an upcoming international break, the players will at least get to stay in a different environment for a few days and that is an opportunity to just reset after a busy number of months across the top European Leagues. It is important to recover both physically and mentally considering the congested manner of the last two months of the season as Leagues look to complete their schedules before the Euro 2020 Tournament begins in June.

Big matches are coming up, but the two week break will be nice for me personally and I do think it will just help a few get over some niggles and make sure they ready for the tough two months to come.

The Fantasy Football game will have a break too, but I will get onto that below once I put down my thoughts on the four Premier League games scheduled to be played this weekend.


Fulham v Leeds United Pick: This is not a very busy Premier League weekend with only four games scheduled around the FA Cup Quarter Final matches that set to be completed. The opening Premier League game comes from Craven Cottage where Fulham will host Leeds United in what is a very important game for both teams.

A win for Fulham would actually take them out of the bottom three for twenty-four hours at least and also peg back both Burnley and Brighton who earned important away wins last weekend. On the other side, a win for Leeds United will mean they are on the brink of reaching 40 points from the season and would end any lingering concerns of being dragged back into a relegation battle.

Both teams failed to score against Big Six opponents at home last weekend, but Leeds United will have been a lot happier with the point against Chelsea than Fulham were in being comprehensively beaten by Manchester City on this ground.

Leeds United have now failed to score in 3 Premier League games and they have also lost their last 3 away League games with the latter 2 coming in games where they failed to score. Chances continue to be created which makes Leeds United dangerous, but Marcelo Bielsa will be demanding a better composure in the final third.

They should have some opportunities against a Fulham team who have shown better defensive solidity in the last couple of months, but who have allowed Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to create big chances here. Even Sheffield United had their moments in a 1-0 defeat to Fulham at Craven Cottage and Leeds United will play with a certain style that will always seen men pushed forward into attacking areas.

Fulham have also been lacking goals in recent home games with a single strike in 6 at Craven Cottage in all competitions. There is still a feeling that Fulham are perhaps not being as clinical as they should be despite the arrival of Josh Maja and that has let them down despite getting into promising positions against the likes of West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur in recent games here.

Scott Parker's team are likely to cause one or two problems for Leeds United too and the away team have not produced too many draws this season. Both teams hitting the net would not be a surprise in what should be decent conditions to play football and all 3 games between these teams since August 2019 have ended with three or more goals shared out.

A 2-1 scoreline either way would not surprise me at all and I think we will see goals in this fixture as Fulham and Leeds United chase valuable points.


Brighton v Newcastle United Pick: For much of the season Brighton and Newcastle United have been performing in very different ways with the former underperforming compared to their underlying stats and the latter perhaps picking up some fortunate points.

Losing some key attacking players has just blunted the Newcastle United effectiveness in the final third, but they have been better in recent home games. However The Magpies somehow left West Brom with a goalless draw and the feeling is they are going to have to ride their luck to earn any kind of positive result here.

In the last couple of games Brighton's underlying numbers have not been as impressive as they have been for much of the season, but they did earn an important, confidence boosting win over Southampton last weekend. Prior to that Brighton have somehow found a way to lose matches where they have deserved so much more, but the win over Southampton may have just given the team a boost that they can carry into this fixture.

Brighton have conceded late to lose back to back home games against Crystal Palace and Leicester City, but they were perhaps the better team in both fixtures. The latter defeat was a tighter game, but Brighton hammered rivals Crystal Palace and manager Graham Potter is perhaps still struggling to work out how his team failed to win.

They should be able to create chances against this Newcastle United team who have been more vulnerable away from home, although The Magpies have shown some resiliency. 3 draws in a row underlines the point even if they should have lost at The Hawthorns during that run and I imagine Steve Bruce will look for his side to be well organised defensively and perhaps steal a result.

Three points are very important to both teams and the tension will only increase if Fulham have been able to beat Leeds United on Friday. That should make this a tight, competitive fixture, but my feeling is that Brighton can find a way to double up their home wins for the season.

It is unlikely to be a really high-scoring game considering the struggles both Brighton and Newcastle United have had turning chances into goals in the final third, but The Seagulls may be the more dangerous. That is largely down to the fact that Newcastle United could go into the fixture without their three main attacking threats and I think a narrow home win is the most likely outcome of the fixture.


West Ham United v Arsenal Pick: This is an important London derby for both West Ham United and Arsenal who are looking for valuable points that could be key in determining how the European spots are shared out at the end of the season.

At this stage of the season Mikel Arteta is still looking for some consistency from his Arsenal team, but he would have been pleased to see his side reach the Europa League Quarter Final during the week. The 0-1 home defeat in the Second Leg of the Last 16 tie would have stung, but Arteta will believe his team only have themselves to blame having created some big opportunities and been wasteful in front of goal.

In recent games Arsenal have been creating plenty of chances and in the main they have been producing the end product to their football which has meant a decent run being put together. The defeat to Olympiacos will have just stifled some of the momentum, but Arsenal will feel they can hurt a West Ham United team who have not defended as well as their results may suggest.

The Hammers have 4 clean sheets in their last 7 games in all competitions in normal time, and they have won 6 of their last 7 at home. Since losing to Liverpool in the Premier League, West Ham United have won 3 League games in a row here and they have scored at least twice in each of those victories.

David Moyes has Jesse Lingard back this week, but he will still want his West Ham United team to show a little more ambition going forward. They will pose a real threat from set pieces and West Ham United have pace and power in the final third which should challenge an Arsenal team that played during the week while the home team were training and recovering.

Both teams should have the chances to hit the back of the net, and 4 of the last 6 between Arsenal and West Ham United have ended with at least three goals shared out.

An early goal could really spark this fixture and I think the amount of chances both created and allowed by the two teams should see a high-scoring game being produced. My narrow edge is with West Ham United to earn a positive result, but a 2-1 scoreline either way would not be a massive surprise in this one.


Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This has been a remarkably difficult week for Tottenham Hotspur who had led 0-1 at Arsenal before losing the North London derby and followed that up by blowing a 2-0 lead over Dinamo Zagreb to exit the Europa League in a 3-0 defeat in the Croatian capital.

The latter loss is one that clearly has stung Jose Mourinho who struggled to explain what had happened, while Hugo Lloris did not mince his words as he essentially pointed fingers at some of his team-mates for the poor performance.

I would have expected Tottenham Hotspur to have a reaction to the loss to Arsenal in the North London derby, but they were sloppy and lacking confidence in the defeat in Zagreb on Thursday. The performance was truly unexpected, and the pressure is on the players to be much better on Sunday as they look to try and close in on the top four places in the Premier League.

Heung-Min Son and Erik Lamela are both expected to miss out and that is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur.

Even then they should have a chance to show they are much better than the last couple of results as Tottenham Hotspur head to Villa Park to take on an Aston Villa team who have been struggling for consistency.

Aston Villa have only scored two goals in their last 4 Premier League games and only poor finishing from Wolves and Newcastle United helped Dean Smith's men earn draws in the last couple of League games. Defensively the results have been better than the underlying numbers and it is hard to ignore how inconsistent Aston Villa have been in the final third without Jack Grealish.

The midfielder could be back this weekend, but Aston Villa have lost half of their last 4 home Premier League games and there is still plenty of talent available to Jose Mourinho. I don't think this will be an easy game for either team, and Tottenham Hotspur are travelling back from Croatia which could sap some energy.

If the players have perhaps given up on Jose Mourinho it could leave Tottenham Hotspur vulnerable, but there has to be some personal pride that will be on display here. The loss at Dinamo Zagreb will have stung so many inside the Tottenham Hotspur dressing room, but they are facing a team that have given up some big chances and the likes of Lucas Moura, Gareth Bale and Harry Kane could hurt Aston Villa.

As bad as the result was at Dinamo Zagreb, Tottenham Hotspur can bounce back here and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap against an Aston Villa team who will offer some big chances to their visitors.

MY PICKS: Fulham-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals
Brighton to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
West Ham United-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 29
I have made it clear for some time that my Free Hit would be used in a different way than I would usually have used it in a Fantasy Football season and it is going to be activated for the four Premier League games to be played this weekend.

I simply do not have a squad that is capable of managing this GW and my Wild Card and Triple Captain Chips are still in hand- the news that the Premier League could push back a Round of fixtures to ensure clubs get to play one home and one away game in front of fans means there could be a bigger DGW left than most have anticipated with the FA Cup Finalists now 'blanking' rather than having a fixture pushed on between GW37 (FA Cup Final Weekend) and GW38.

Hopefully we are going to get more clarification on plans in the two week international break, but the Free Hit looks to be of most use to me this weekend to make sure I have a full fifteen players ready to go.

So who am I looking to target?

From the defensive side of the field all of the numbers are suggesting Brighton have to be the team considered most likely to earn a clean sheet.

Both West Ham United and Arsenal have decent underlying numbers, while Tottenham Hotspur could benefit from facing a goal-shy Aston Villa even coming in off the quite staggering Extra Time upset at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday.

Fulham and Leeds United feel like they could be involved in a high-scoring game so the attacking options from both teams have to be considered.

The underlying numbers from an attacking point of view suggests an early goal could really spark the fixture, and it is a week where risks can be taken in a bid to get closer to those leading the Mini Leagues you may be involved in.

There are some players that have gotten some traction in the FPL Community that are worth a second look, but the injury to Heung-Min Son is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur's attacking threat and especially after the Extra Time that was needed a few days ago. Jack Grealish's potential return will mean Aston Villa are at least looking a little better going forward, while I think some differentials should be selected if only to try and produce a strong GW.

The Captain selection doesn't look very easy aside from going with Harry Kane, but this is something I will think about right through to the deadline.

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