Tennis Picks 2015 (October 3rd)

The tournaments from this week are wrapping up and that means we are down to the last couple of days in Shenzhen, Wuhan and Kuala Lumpur before we head to Beijing and Tokyo for big events next week.

Friday was a good day for the picks as all four made came into the winner's enclosure to turn around the week from the negative into a positive. I will make a couple of picks from the Semi Finals to be played on Saturday with the hope that these two will confirm a positive result for the second week in a row and get the season totals back into the positive too.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Tommy Robredo: These two met in Cincinnati in what was a one-sided win for Tomas Berdych and I do wonder if the big hitters have a little too much in their game for Tommy Robredo these days. It would be no surprise that the Spaniard has lost perhaps a little bit of speed around the court and perhaps that means his defensive skills have just eroded to the point that the heavy hitters are able to puncture his defences a little more frequently.

It isn't just the battering Robredo took at the hands of Berdych in Cincinnati, but Milos Raonic has also beaten the Spaniard twice this season for the loss of five games and then three games in St Petersburg last week.

While the likes of Berdych and Raonic can keep the pressure on Robredo with their serves too, the latter has to work hard for the points he earns and that once again leads to the possibility that these players get the edge in the rally to the point they are able to hit through Robredo.

Berdych has also been in the better form this week and I expect he will have a little too much for Robredo and the best I can see for the latter is a 63, 64 defeat in this Semi Final.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: It was not surprise that David Ferrer had to ride out some tough moments in his first match here, but he looked a lot more comfortable in the Quarter Final win over Mikhail Kukushkin. I fancy he can back up his sole previous win over Benjamin Becker despite the latter earning a very good win over Grigor Dimitrov on Friday.

However, that win isn't as a good as it might have looked twelve months ago as Dimitrov puts the finishing touches on a poor 2015 season. There is every chance that Dimitrov will finish outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings and Becker will have to dig deep to see off David Ferrer in a similar manner.

Becker hasn't done a lot of winning prior to this week and Ferrer is going to make him play a lot of balls and expose his consistency. If the German serves well this could be a difficult match for Ferrer, but I would fancy his defensive skills to force enough balls back in play to extract errors and earn more break point chances than he gives away.

Of course the Ferrer serve can be vulnerable, but he served well against Mikhail Kukushkin and I think the Spaniard moves into the Final after a tight 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.20 Units (26 Units Staked, + 16.15% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 1st)

It was a disappointing Wednesday for the tennis picks as they went 1-3 to drop this week into a negative, but there is time to turn that around if the last couple of days are much more positive.

The Second Round matches in Kuala Lumper and Shenzhen on Thursday, while the tournament in Wuhan has reached the Quarter Finals.

Johanna Konta is still involved in that event and that means she is now going to move into the position of Great Britain's Number 1 player, which is astonishing considering where she was prior to Eastbourne in June. I said at the time that she was a lot of untapped potential in the Konta game because of how solid she is off the ground and she gets a decent amount out of the first serve, but even I am surprised that she has made such a move up in a short period of time.

Winning matches does breed confidence, but I have been more impressed by how well Konta has handled the occasion when facing some of the biggest names on the WTA Tour. Her performance from 5-1 down in the final set to beat Simona Halep in the Third Round just shows how much strength Konta has mentally and I am expecting a big season from her in 2016.

That doesn't mean I am predicting Grand Slam wins or anything like that, but I can see Konta getting very close to the top twenty in the World Rankings if she can handle the pressure that will come with an improved Ranking. It is a different matter when players now see you as a scalp and being able to bring the high level week after week can be tough, especially when things take a downward turn as they will do.

However, I have big expectations for Konta and think she is only scratching the surface as to where her game can go in the next twelve months- a goal I would set for her is to build on the last couple of months and try to get to Wimbledon as one of the top 32 Seeds. That would be a huge achievement and one Konta should be proud of if she does reach it and I think she is more than capable of doing that.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Radek Stepanek: Two veterans of the ATP Tour meet in the Second Round in Kuala Lumpur as David Ferrer and Radek Stepanek play for the right to reach the Quarter Final. I have doubts about both players for different reasons, but I think David Ferrer will have a little too much in his game for Stepanek and win this match.

What are my doubts about Ferrer? Very simply the Spaniard came back for the US Open after a couple of months off the Tour with an injury, and he had a couple of decent wins before finding Jeremy Chardy too good. That lack of competitive tennis since June has to be a concern in any tournament he enters as Ferrer looks to reach the World Tour Finals again, but there are issues surrounding Stepanek too.

Stepanek missed a large chunk of the opening of the 2015 season having missed the end of the 2014 season too and he has struggled to get his form back up to the level expected. While he does have a good win from the First Round in Kuala Lumpur, Stepanek has struggled against the better players on the Tour since he returned.

I imagine both players will have their chances to break serve in this one, but I think Ferrer is the better player and can wear down his opponent. Ferrer is unlikely to be distracted by any of the antics Stepanek can produce on the court and I think he finds a break more in each set to come through 64, 63.


Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Anna Karolina Schmiedlova: The first couple of wins for Garbine Muguruza this week in Wuhan have come in dominating fashion for the Spaniard and I think she can make it three in a row in that manner.

Confidence is a big factor in the kind of performances that Muguruza can produce and she has struggled for consistency since reaching the Final at Wimbledon in July.

I actually quite like what Anna Karolina Schmiedlova brings to the court and she battles hard which makes her a tough opponent for anyone to face. She has reached the Semi Final in Seoul during this Asian swing, but that means Schmiedlova has played plenty of tennis compared with Muguruza who was beaten relatively early in Tokyo.

It does come down to whether Muguruza can maintain the power hitting she has to blow away Sloane Stephens and Ana Ivanovic in the last two Rounds. That has been tough for her to do for a long enough period in the past and a major factor why it took the Spaniard so long to reach the top ten in the World Rankings, but I think she will enjoy the match up against Schmiedlova and win this one 64, 63.


Venus Williams - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: For all I have said about how much I admire Johanna Konta and praised her for her move up the World Rankings, this might be the most difficult match she has played over the last few months. It might be funny to suggest that considering Konta has played the World Number 2 Simona Halep just yesterday and also beaten the likes of Victoria Azarenka, Garbine Muguruza and Andrea Petkovic in the last couple of months.

Playing someone who is Ranked outside of the top twenty might be a strange pick for this being Konta's most difficult match, but Venus Williams has a different aura around her than those players I have mentioned.

This is a multiple Grand Slam Champion and Venus Williams is in fantastic form with three very solid wins this week in Wuhan to follow up her Quarter Final run at the US Open. She isn't as consistent as he was in her World Number 1 days, but Venus Williams has the big shots and ability to get to the net that can trouble Konta who won't have seen a style like this too much.

Playing big name players hasn't fazed Johanna Konta since Wimbledon, but I think the British player comes up just a little short in this one against Venus Williams who hasn't dropped a set this week. It will be a battle at times, but I think Venus Williams wins this one 75, 64.


Coco Vandeweghe + 5.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Angelique Kerber has surprised me twice this week by winning one match with a little more difficulty than expected and another with more comfort than I anticipated.

The German is a very solid player and has plenty of confidence which makes her very dangerous as she gets deeper into a tournament. Kerber can defend effectively and she can quickly turn defence into attack which is going to put the pressure on Coco Vandeweghe, especially as the American can become frustrated when things are not going her way.

The backhand wing is a weakness that has prevented Vandeweghe from really kicking on up the World Rankings, but she is a player that thrives on the confidence of winning matches. She has battled through three Rounds by winning final set deciders and I do wonder if she has left something physically out on the court.

If she falls behind to Kerber I am concerned that Vandeweghe will mentally lose focus and almost check out of the match, but if the American serves well I like her chances to stay within this number. Kerber is still the favourite to reach the Semi Final on her current form, but this could be the second really tough match she has this week to earn her place in that final four.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2015 (September 30th)

It was a mixed start to the picks from the week as one player won, one player lost, and one was leading before her opponent pulled out with an injury. Retirements in matches are more common at this time of the season when players have had a lot of months of tennis in the body and perhaps are beginning to look ahead to the 2016 season.

There are players who will really reduce the schedule following the US Open if their main goals have been achieved, although most of the big names are out in Wuhan this week for one of the big events left this season.

With only seven weeks left of the season, the 2015 season is quickly winding down and the focus is on seeing which players confirm their places in Singapore and London for the End of Year Finals and there is still some interesting matches to be played as players look to set a marker down for the 2016 season.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: When you look at the way both Venus Williams and Carla Suarez Navarro approach matches, I am stunned to see it is the Spaniard that has the winning record in their head to head matches. I would have thought Venus' power would prove too much for Suarez Navarro to handle, but it hasn't been the case so far clearly.

A couple of the Suarez Navarro wins have come on a hard court, but she has been in terrible form over the last three months and confidence is simply not in a great place. When you are having to work hard for whatever you earn on a tennis court, lacking confidence just means hitting the ball a little shorter than you would like, or perhaps not going for the winners that you might do when feeling a lot better about your game.

It affects shot selection and Venus Williams is directly opposite to Suarez Navarro having produced some solid wins in recent weeks. Williams had a great run at the US Open before finding younger sister Serena a little too good in a fascinating Quarter Final, but Venus has bounced back with solid wins over Agnieszka Radwanska and Julia Goerges this week in Wuhan.

Suarez Navarro is just 6-9 since reaching the Final in Rome back in May and I think Venus Williams gets some revenge for her loss to the Spaniard in Miami. I like Venus Williams to come through 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals.


Camila Giorgi + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It was a tougher match than I expected for Angelique Kerber when she beat Jelena Jankovic in three sets, but importantly the German has maintained her recent form. She should be too good for the erratic Camila Giorgi who has been very inconsistent since winning the title in Hertogenbosch back in June.

Giorgi had a battling win in the First Round against Tsvetana Pironkova and benefited from Belinda Bencic retiring after the first set on Tuesday. She has plenty of talent, but she doesn't always know the best way to control the power she has and her shot making can go down the toilet when under pressure.

The serve is also as much a weapon as it is a hindrance- while she will secure a lot more cheaper points than Angelique Kerber, the second serve Giorgi possesses is a real liability with plenty of double faults never that far away.

Someone like Kerber certainly has the defensive skills to frustrate Giorgi and earn plenty of unforced errors out of her game. However, I like the Italian as someone who builds confidence and can become very dangerous the longer she goes in a tournament and her one and half wins will aid that confidence.

When she releases the pressure and play on instinct, Giorgi is a real handful for any player on the WTA Tour and I think she can give Kerber plenty to think about it with this number of games in the pocket.


Tommy Robredo - 5.5 games v Hiroki Moriya: You don't want to underestimate a player that has come through the qualifiers and then won a main draw match like Hiroki Moriya has, but Tommy Robredo should have a considerable edge in the match.

The Spaniard can't always be trusted to cover big spreads because his service games can be described sloppy at best when he is slightly below par. However, he is playing an opponent that is not exactly going to be able to hit through him consistently and I think Robredo has had enough time to recover from travelling here from Russia.

Robredo did show some solid form in St Petersburg, but this is a big number being asked of him to cover, one that he isn't too used to doing in recent weeks. However, he is playing against an opponent who has rarely managed to get to this level with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit and I think Moriya could be surprised by the amount of balls Robredo is able to return back to the court.

While he has had some wins on the hard courts, Moriya has suffered a number of heavy defeats on the surface and I will look for Robredo to wear him down 64, 62 in this one.


Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 games v Benjamin Becker: A Quarter Final place is up for grabs in Kuala Lumpur and Jeremy Chardy certainly has been playing well enough over the last couple of months to think he can take it ahead of Benjamin Becker.

Chardy had to dig deep to beat the young and talented Alexander Zverev in the First Round, but he looked to be getting stronger as that match went on. He has a decent serve, when it is working, and Chardy should also have the better of Becker when it comes to the extended rallies and I do really believe the Frenchman is capable of covering this number which I think is at least a game short of where it should be.

I have respect for the Benjamin Becker win over Sam Groth, but that has been a rare high point in the last few months and he is actually 4-9 since pulling out at the French Open. Confidence issues and perhaps some physical issues haven't helped Becker reversing his form and now facing a player that is feeling really good about his game is tough to overcome.

If Becker serves at his very best, he can make this competitive and perhaps even steal a set, but I think Chardy wins the match. If Becker is slightly under par, the Frenchman should win 63, 64 and it would take a serious turnaround in form from Becker to prevent that happening.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 23rd)

This is the first week of the Asian swing for the ATP players, while the WTA Tour has already been through a couple of tournaments.

There are plenty of big names on the WTA Tour that are in action, although the big news was the retirement of Na Li due to the host of injuries she has been suffering. It is a real shame she couldn't play a couple of tournaments in a part of the world where she has made a huge impact thanks to becoming a two time Grand Slam, but her health is far more important and Li will enjoy a retirement thanks to her large earnings over the last few years.

To be perfectly honest, the WTA Tour has begun producing players to fill the void that Li will leave behind, even if Serena Williams remains the best player. Younger players are beginning to make their moves and some of those will look to keep their names in high regard moving into the 2015 season by finishing this year spectacularly.


The ATP Tour has less of the big names involved as the majority of those will return next week, including Rafael Nadal who has stated that he will return for four tournaments to end the season. I wasn't sure if Nadal would play with his wrist injury, but it clearly is an ambition of the Spaniard despite the Tour moving onto a part of the year where he has rarely produced his best tennis.

Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer and Andy Murray are the biggest names in action this week as they all look to improve their chances of qualifying for the World Tour Finals in what looks like being a tight battle for the top eight places. With three of those places already taken and Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic close to booking their London spots, players could be competing for just three places over the last six weeks of the season.

That should produce an interesting final few weeks of the Tour for the fans, even if the likes of Murray claim reaching London isn't a major goal of his, and we may even see a few players highlight their credentials for 2015 with confidence producing wins to end 2014.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: These two players met in Tokyo last week and Caroline Wozniacki came away with a 63, 63 win and I can see her matching a similar margin of victory as long as she can serve slightly better.

It has been a very strong couple of months for Wozniacki who fell a little short in the US Open Final to open her Grand Slam account and there has been little to suggest she is off the boil during this Asian swing.

I hate underestimating Carla Suarez Navarro, but she is a top 20 player that has generally found the best players to tough to overcome. Her win over Maria Sharapova is an exception to her last twelve months when it is a rare occasion that Suarez Navarro beats a players she isn't expected to.

The Spaniard's serve is not the best and that is usually feasted on by the best players on the Tour and I can see Wozniacki having a little too much class for her in this match. There should be breaks of serve before the Dane comes through 64, 62.


Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Zarina Diyas: I find Angelique Kerber one of the more frustrating players on the WTA Tour who sometimes shows flashes of being a top player, but can then go through phases of struggling to find the court.

Kerber relies on her athleticism around the court and can sometimes be guilty of offering her opponent too much of an opportunity to dictate rallies which can be tough to overcome.

I sense this isn't the kind of match that will follow that pattern and Kerber should be able to get the better of Zarina Diyas despite the strong showing the latter has put through 2014. However, Diyas has a serve that can be punished by the better players and she is still in the midst of improving as she moved into the World top 40 in the Rankings.

However, I think she is still having a difficult time maintaining the consistency that the better players demand on the Tour and I will look for Kerber to come through 63, 63.


Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Karin Knapp: Karin Knapp does have a big game, but her biggest issue is transferring that to a level of consistency that can see her compete on the Tour with positive results.

The Italian has been in good form over the last month since the end of the US Open, but this is a rare occasion where Knapp will be facing an increase of power on the other side of the court from Petra Kvitova.

One concern would be that this is Kvitova's first match since her surprise early exit at the US Open and she could be undercooked against an opponent that has won a title and 8 of her last 9 matches including a couple of qualifiers to get into the main draw here.

However, I do think Kvitova has the power to put Knapp under pressure in the match and that should see her eventually pull away from her opponent. Kvitova won the title in Tokyo last season in her return to the Tour following the US Open, so is clearly a player that can regain her form and I like her to find a 75. 62 win.


Marinko Matosevic v Nick Kyrgios: Most people should be aware that Nick Kyrgios has admitted this will be his last tournament of the season because he is 'mentally and physically exhausted' from his first full year on the Tour.

It has been a very good year for the young Australian and I would doubt he would be playing this week if his mother wasn't of Malaysian background with this tournament taking place in Kuala Lumper. Once he committed to it, Kyrgios probably felt he had to play this week, but I am wondering how much he is going to have left to put into the event.

The indoor hard courts should play to Kyrgios's strength with that booming serve and heavy groundstrokes, but Marinko Matosevic is no slouch in those areas himself. The difference is that Matosevic can sometimes lose his head and play some brainless tennis that sees him give away breaks of serve.

It is the reason I will keep this pick to a minimum level as I don't trust Matosevic fully to stay mentally focused, but Kyrgios' own mindset has to be a worry coming into this event. With that in mind, Matosevic has to be worth a small interest at odds against to surprise his compatriot who could will be getting ready for a big 2015 starting with his home Grand Slam.

MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marinko Matosevic @ 2.45 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Season 2014: + 30.38 Units (1387.5 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units