Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 15th January)

The First Round was played over three days, which is the norm at two of the four Grand Slams played on the Tour, but we will be getting back to a more consistent schedule going forward.

Of course the weather needs to play ball, and there looks to be some stormy weather in the Melbourne area on Day 4, but this might not be the worst news for those competing.

In fact the next two days are very decent temperature-wise for the players who are heading out onto the courts, although we will be hitting more traditional very hot weather around the weekend. These days bring different challenges, but the Second Round should be comfortable conditions for the top players looking to make their way towards the second week of the tournament.

On Day 4 there are some top names out on the courts, which is so good for the fans, and there are some quality looking matches to enjoy.

Hopefully the Tennis selections below can keep the positives ticking forward as I look to make a much better start to 2025 than I did twelve months ago, a memory that will long be seared on the mind.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 sets v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Both of these players have enjoyed much more positive moments in their respective careers than they are right now, although the signs are perhaps a little stronger for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

A former top ten Ranked player, Felix Auger-Aliassime has been striving to find the solutions to turn his tennis around. In the last eighteen months he has dropped out of the top 30 of the World Rankings as injury and loss of confidence played contributory factors, while the end of 2024 was very disappointing as far as the Canadian's form goes.

However, he has played well to open the 2025 season and winning the title in Adelaide will have done wonders for the confidence around the player. Two of the four wins needed to win that title were earned against players Ranked higher than himself, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has also beaten Taylor Fritz, the US Open Runner Up, this year.

The serve has never really been a massive issue, but there has been pressure placed on that shot by relatively poor returning numbers. Those have been very strong in the limited matches that Felix Auger-Aliassime has played so far this year and his dominant win in the First Round will have done him no harm at all.

He is a deserving favourite in this Second Round match against Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Felix Auger-Aliassime has won all four of their previous matches. Two of the wins have been on the clay courts, which should have favoured Davidovich Fokina, while the other two wins have both been on hard courts.

One of those was at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Felix Auger-Aliassime was Ranked 41 places higher than Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and the Canadian used his experience to come through in four competitive sets.

This year Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 43 places below Auger-Aliassime in the World Rankings having had a difficult twelve months.

In that time Davidovich Fokina has fallen out of the top 30 in the World Rankings down to World Number 66 and the Spaniard has not shown a lot of positive form in the build up to the Australian Open. He benefited from a second set retirement in the First Round, but this is a considerably tougher test for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, a player who has a vulnerable serve even at his strongest times.

The head to head shows that Alejandro Davidovich is able to protect his serve a little better when facing the weak returning of Felix Auger-Aliassime and he has been able to hold 87% of the service games played. However, the reason Auger-Aliassime has won all four previous matches between the players is that he has held 94% of his own service games against this opponent and the current form suggests the higher Ranked player is going to be good enough to move through in three or four sets.

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 sets v Francesco Passaro: This little section of the draw has been opened up by Grigor Dimitrov's hip injury that forced him out of his First Round match and the beneficiary is Francesco Passaro.

The Italian is only in the main draw as a 'Lucky Loser', but will be entering the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of this tournament. However, there are some big challenges for Francesco Passaro to overcome to have a longer stay in Melbourne, even if he may feel he has 'nothing to lose' right now.

He was leading Grigor Dimitrov by a set when the Bulgarian was forced to retire from the match, but Francesco Passaro had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to that. There have been stronger performances on the favoured clay courts and improving his Ranking will allow Francesco Passaro to try and play in some of the big events coming up in the lead up to the French Open, but he had played seven hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents and lost every one.

The real concern is that Francesco Passaro had not been very competitive in those defeats either and that makes Benjamin Bonzi a deserving favourite.

At 28 years old, the time is now for Bonzi to really make an impact on the Tour.

He had threatened to become one of the next leading lights of French men's tennis, but his progress was curtailed after reaching his career high World Ranking in February 2023. However, Benjamin Bonzi ended 2024 in strong form, albeit at a lower level than the main ATP Tour, and he has put plenty of wins on the board in 2025 which can only build the confidence.

The win over veteran David Goffin in the First Round was very impressive and Benjamin Bonzi has been able to beat those that he has been expected to outside of that victory. The Frenchman has won his last nineteen matches on the hard courts when playing an opponent that is Ranked lower than himself and Benjamin Bonzi has won plenty of those matches in strong fashion.

Over the last twelve months, Benjamin Bonzi has held 82% of service games on this surface when facing an opponent Ranked lower than himself.

This has also helped Bonzi dominate on the return of serve and you have to feel he has a bit too much all around for Francesco Passaro in their first meeting on the Tour.

The Lucky Loser may feel fortune is still behind him, but the likelihood is that Francesco Passaro's run ends in the Second Round and Benjamin Bonzi can move through in a relatively untroubled manner.

Reilly Opelka-Tomas Machac over 40.5 games: Life as a tennis player is going to be fun at times, but injuries can have a devastating mental and physical effect on any player on the Tour.

Reilly Opelka will tell you all about that having missed large parts of the last two years dealing with various ailments.

The hope is that 2025 will be clearer for the American who has dropped down to World Number 170 and who will be looking to take advantage of any Wild Cards offered to him to rebuild as quickly as possible. It was a Protected Ranking that allowed Reilly Opelka to compete in Brisbane in the warm up to the Australian Open and he took full advantage by reaching the Final, which included beating Novak Djokovic on the way.

Unfortunately it was not a perfect ending for Opelka who was forced to withdraw from the Final after just five games, but he is able to compete in Melbourne and earned his four set win in the First Round. It was a back issue that had flared up in Brisbane and the concern is that it will impact Reilly Opelka's serving, which is an absolutely huge part of his tennis.

He gave up 13 Break Points in the First Round and that was against an opponent Ranked outside the top 200 so there is little doubt that Reilly Opelka needs to show significant improvement if he is going to upset Tomas Machac.

The 24 year old representing Czechia has some big expectations on his shoulders along with a couple of his compatriots as tennis fans look for the next Tomas Berdych to come through. This Tomas is closing in on reaching the top 20 in the World Rankings for the first time and Machac will have gained some confidence from the level shown at the United Cup in preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season.

A close loss to Casper Ruud and a competitive match against Taylor Fritz will have given Tomas Machac a boost and he was a very strong winner in the First Round.

The higher Ranked player has an edge on the returning numbers, but Tomas Machac will not have faced a serve like Reilly Opelka's in every match.

His own serve will certainly be good enough to contain the threat from the American, but this could be a match that needs a couple of tie-breakers to really determine the direction it moves in, especially if Reilly Opelka is able to bring his best serving to the court.

Both players are more than capable of winning a set and you would have to feel that this Second Round match is able to surpass the total games line set if that is the case. With the serving capabilities on both sides of the net, there is every chance that the sets will be pretty fast with players rolling through service games and the two are capable of combining for enough games to move past this line.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Reilly Opelka-Tomas Machac Over 40.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 5-2, + 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2024 (Monday 15th January)

The Australian Open got underway on Sunday this year, but that means the First Round matches have been shared out over the first three days of the tournament.

The selections from the Day 2 schedule can be read below, although the thread is a short one.

It is a busy Sunday but the selections can be seen below and I will update the totals for the tournament in the Day 3 thread as the First Round comes to a close.

Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 games v Terence Atmane: At the US Open, Daniil Medvedev was happy to fly under the radar with all of the attention on Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. While most would have been hoping to see the rematch of the Wimbledon Final, Daniil Medvedev had other plans and managed to beat the Spaniard before coming up short against Novak Djokovic in the Final.

He has twice reached the Australian Open Final and should have won in 2022 when leading Rafael Nadal by two sets and looking in dominant form.

However, once again the current World Number 3 can head into a Grand Slam event knowing that others will be getting a lot more of the headlines than he will himself. That will not bother Daniil Medvedev in the slightest and he remains one of the top hard court players in the world, which means he has every chance of winning this Grand Slam title.

The expectation is that Daniil Medvedev will be able to make a comfortable start to another hard court Grand Slam event as he prepares to face a Qualifier. You always have to respect any player that has managed to win three matches to get into the main draw of an event, but Terence Atmane will have a big gap to bridge.

The young Frenchman is making his Grand Slam debut in the main draw and being a left hander will give Terence Atmane a chance, but he will also know that this is a considerable step up compared with the usual opponents he faces on the Tour.

Terence Atmane did have a decent run at the Shanghai Masters, while he has a 3-4 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career.

In saying that, Atmane will not faced someone like Daniil Medvedev too often and the ability to get as many balls back in play as the World Number 3 can when at his best. This is his first match of the 2024 season, but Medvedev has made short work of early Round opponents in recent hard court Grand Slams and has the returning ability to break down the lefty.

For a while Terence Atmane should be competitive, but Daniil Medvedev can exert his control on the match and eventually find the breaks of serve to win and cover a big number.

Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: He has spoken openly about considering his future in the sport if the results do not improve, although Andy Murray has been in bullish mood ahead of the Australian Open. The former World Number 1 believes he is playing some of his best tennis since returning from a hip injury that had threatened to force him into retirement and Andy Murray is still keen to end his career on his own terms.

The main ambition through the first half of 2024 has to be on stringing some positive results together and making sure he is Seeded when Wimbledon comes around. Last year Andy Murray only barely missed out on doing that, but he has to defend the points from a Third Round run at the Australian Open and those for reaching the Final in Doha.

The draw was thus very important for Andy Murray and he may be grateful to be facing Tomas Martin Etcheverry, a Seeded player who tends to produce his best form on the clay courts.

Overlooking the Argentinian would be a mistake considering these two players met twice on the hard courts last season and both won one of those matches. Andy Murray won at the Indian Wells Masters, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry got the better of Murray on the indoor courts in Basel.

That was one of the few successes Tomas Martin Etcheverry enjoyed on the hard courts and he has just a 9-14 record on the surface over the last twelve months. It is a run that includes losing both matches played this month against players who are Ranked below Andy Murray.

Andy Murray was also beaten in his sole match played in 2024 against Grigor Dimitrov, although the Bulgarian did go on to lift the title in Brisbane. It perhaps gives Murray some confidence having been beaten in three sets in that event, while he has the slightly stronger return numbers compared with Etcheverry on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Both have had similar successes when it comes to the serve and so the narrow edge is with Andy Murray to win this First Round match and at least open the door for another run into the Third Round. There is a potential for him to meet Novak Djokovic in that Round, which would be a very tough challenge for Andy Murray, but the main focus has to be on winning a couple of matches here and not allowing his World Ranking to be dented.

There was a time when Andy Murray would have entered Grand Slam events looking to win, but his best chance may yet be at Wimbledon and it is important to improve his Ranking in order to earn a 'better draw' when that tournament comes around in July.

A competitive match is expected in this First Round, although the lean is with Andy Murray to find a way through in four sets. This should see him do enough to cover this handicap mark as a relatively small favourite as he gets the better of the Seeded player.

Naomi Osaka v Caroline Garcia: The former World Number 1 returned to the WTA Tour earlier this month and now gets to perform on one of the biggest stages in the First Round at the Australian Open.

We last saw Naomi Osaka in September 2022 and she had been struggling for form as off court issues seemed to be holding her back. A decision was made to cut short the season, but Osaka was later confirmed to be pregnant and so the entirety of 2023 was devoted to becoming a mother.

This has given Naomi Osaka a new perspective and she has returned to the Tour with a clear goal of trying to win more Grand Slams. Four have already been bagged in her career with two of those won right here in Melbourne in 2019 and 2021 and it is clear that this is a player with a huge amount of potential to still fulfil on her return to the Tour.

Winning a third Australian Open title looks a long shot, but Naomi Osaka is unlikely to go away quietly and this is a tremendous challenge for Seeded Caroline Garcia.

The Frenchwoman looked to have finally found the consistency to become a real threat to win the biggest prizes when she took home the WTA Finals title at the end of 2022. However, Garcia failed to back that up as expected in 2023 and it has been a slightly mixed month for her before being handed this very difficult looking First Round match.

It will feel like the pressure is on Carolina Garcia, even if she is set as the underdog, and this is a player that has not always dealt with that as well as would have been hoped.

Caroline Garcia has to know she needs to serve well against an aggressive opponent who is still going to have some issues putting some consistency on the court. Naomi Osaka will go on the attack, but Garcia will be looking to get as many balls back into play and see whether she can break down a player who has been away for much of the last eighteen months.

The serve has been an effective weapon for Caroline Garcia, but she may have some struggle getting into the Osaka service games. Out of the two players, Naomi Osaka might be able to really get after the Garcia second serve and the latter will not have forgotten a pretty heavy loss to this opponent at this Grand Slam in February 2021.

Things have changed in the last three years, but the feeling is that Naomi Osaka is going to be the stronger player on the court even after her time away from the sport. Caroline Garcia can be very good at her best, but she is a pretty inefficient return player and it could be a case of the scoreboard pressure as well as the support for Naomi Osaka wearing her down in this big First Round match.

Winning the tournament might be unlikely, but Naomi Osaka was one of the top hard court players on the Tour when she really focused and she returns with some big ambitions. She can make a winning start to this tournament and open up the draw for a really big, headline grabbing run at the first Grand Slam of the 2024 season.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexandre Muller - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

NFL Super Wild Card Round PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 14-16)

It is quite amazing how quickly time can fly- it feels like the 2022 NFL season only began yesterday, yet eighteen weeks later we have reached the PlayOffs.

Some of the favourites from pre-season have made their way into the PlayOffs as expected, but the NFL continues to show off the parity they are most proud of with a number of teams making the post-season that did not do so last season.

The Super Wild Card Round has been a lot of fun since its introduction and this season we even have a Monday Night Football PlayOff game for the first time. I am not sure that is going to be good news for the winner of the Tampa Bay-Dallas game with the winner most likely heading to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the rested Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round, but it is something that the winner will have to deal with if that is the outcome.

The Monday Night selection will be added to this thread on Saturday.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The NFC West has sent two teams to the PlayOffs and the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) will be given the opportunity to host this Super Wild Card Round game against the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) courtesy of being Divisional Winners. Despite the injuries, especially at the Quarter Back position, the 49ers have used the 'next man up' mantra to great effect and they are considered a real candidate to win the Super Bowl.

That is a long shot for the Seattle Seahawks who have overcome a run of five losses in six games to win their last two regular season games and back their way into the PlayOff. They needed a Green Bay Packers loss in Week 18 to do that and they edged out the Detroit Lions thanks to an early road win over the Lions giving Seattle the tie-breaker.

Recent performance levels as well as the fact that the Seahawks have lost both games to the San Francisco 49ers in the regular season makes Seattle a big road underdog in this opening PlayOff Game of the 2022 season. Spreads like this are hard to work out considering how well the underdog have performed in the recent past in the NFL PlayOffs, but the two losses to the 49ers underline the feeling we all have in that the Seahawks do not match up effectively against this Divisional rival.

That is an issue on both sides of the ball, while the decline in the Geno Smith level at Quarter Back has to be a major concern heading into the post-season. He did not play badly in the wins to close out the season, but the mistakes that have been evident throughout his starting career in the NFL have begun to show up again down the stretch, mistakes that Geno Smith had been firmly in control of earlier in the season.

Before last season, Super Wild Card underdogs had been on a really strong run, but those teams were just 1-5 against the spread in the 2021 PlayOffs. That does not bode well for the Seahawks who will try and run the ball against the 49ers Defensive Line to ease the pressure on Smith, who is also making his first PlayOff start, an unenviable position for a Quarter Back.

The same will be the case for Brock Purdy playing Quarter Back for the San Francisco 49ers and there is no doubt that the intensity of a post-season game is a level above what will have been faced in the regular season. However, even with that in mind, Brock Purdy has shown he can deal with the pressure of being a starter in the NFL and he is surrounded by players that can make the difference for him.

In all likelihood, the Seattle Offensive Line is not going to suddenly rip off big gains against the San Francisco Defensive Line considering they have not had much success in either regular season game. That is going to shift the pressure onto Geno Smith and the weather conditions expected in Santa Clara for game time is going to make the passing game that much more difficult to execute.

Geno Smith has talented Receivers, but the question is whether he will have a good enough grip of the football to throw down the field and whether he will get the time needed for the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to break open with the 49ers pass rush teeing off on the Quarter Back in third and long spots.

There have been one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exposed, but the conditions and the one-dimensional nature of the Seattle Offensive unit may may it difficult to exploit those. You cannot ignore this team averaged 10 points per game against the 49ers in the regular season and it is going to be tough for Smith and the team to produce much better against this elite Defensive team.

Throwing conditions won't be easier for Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are not a team looking for the big play, but simply asking the Quarter Back to get the ball into the hands of the skill players and let them do the work. Another huge advantage for Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers is that they are very much expected to establish the run and Christian McCaffrey should have another big game against this Seattle Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run all season.

Kyle Shanahan has shown he can find different ways to run the ball so I expect Deebo Samuel to also have his fair share of carries and all this means that Brock Purdy will be in front of the chains for much of the afternoon and not asked to carry the team. That means there is less pressure on this first-time starting Quarter Back compared with Geno Smith and Brock Purdy is not expected to be in situations where he can be forced into making mistakes.

Of course he will throw the ball at some point, but Purdy will be asked to make short throws into the likes of Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and those Receivers can pick up plenty of yards after the catch on their own.

Ultimately I simply don't think this is a positive match up for the Seahawks on either side of the ball and staying with the 49ers looks like it could be a step too far.

There is a theory that beating the same team three times in a single season is tough to do, but those teams have won fourteen of the twenty-three games in that situation. You also have to accept that Divisional match ups in the post-season have favoured the underdog since 2014 with a strong 8-2 record against the spread, but neither game between the Seahawks and 49ers has been close in the regular season and I am not anticipating this one to be much different.

Seattle have been struggling down the stretch and are 1-7 against the spread in the last eight games played, while they have not covered in their last five against their NFC West rivals.

The Seahawks also have to deal with a poor trend going against teams that have not had recent PlayOff experience when facing an opponent that made the post-season in the previous year.

And of course there is that known issue that first time PlayOff Quarter Backs have had when set as the underdog- those teams are 7-18-1 against the spread since 2006, while San Francisco are trying to extend a run for home favourites of at least 7 points who are 13-4 against the spread in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

I simply don't think Brock Purdy will need to make pressurised throws too often and the 49ers can wear Seattle down at the line of scrimmage with a strong win to return to the Divisional Round of the post-season and hosting a game next weekend.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: A few months ago you would have gotten some long odds on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) winning the AFC South and securing a home game in the Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. Five wins in a row have not only pushed the Jaguars into the PlayOffs, but they will feel like they are in the right mindset to deal with the post-season having won a 'knock out' game in Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans.

Winning the Division means hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) and I do think there is plenty of pressure on Head Coach Brandon Staley after deciding to play his starters for the full game in Week 18. In most circumstances it would not have been a decision that is being questioned, but the Chargers had been locked into the Number 5 Seed in the AFC before kick off and the injuries picked up by Mike Williams and Joey Bosa have had fans shaking their heads.

Losing in the Super Wild Card Round will thus be a major blow for the Chargers Head Coach, even though both Williams and Bosa are expected to suit up.

Los Angeles are the favourites even though they were blown out at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season. The long trip to the East Coast is far from ideal too and I think this Jaguars team have shown an improvement through the course of the season while being guided by a Super Bowl Winning Head Coach that will make them very dangerous.

Trevor Lawrence is growing into the Quarter Back many believed he would be when selected as the Number 1 Overall Pick, but the Jaguars cannot be as sloppy Offensively as they were last week. It didn't help that they were not able to run the ball as they have come to expect against the very tough Titans Defensive Line, but at least this week there are likely to be more holes up front for Travis Etienne to try and burst through.

Jacksonville are going to need the running game working with an improving Chargers Secondary looking healthier and playing well down the stretch. They can put some pressure on Trevor Lawrence when he steps back to throw if they can put the Jaguars behind the chains and that could lead to mistakes, which has been an issue for the Quarter Back who has thrown 8 Interceptions, but also had 9 Fumbles.

At home, the Jaguars will feel they can have some success even after the inconsistent performance on this side of the ball in the Week 18 win over the Titans.

However, Doug Pederson may be leaning on his Defensive unit to play up to the level produced in holding the Titans to 16 points last week. Since allowing 34 points in a home win over the Dallas Cowboys, the Jaguars have allowed a total of 22 points in three games, although it should be noted the struggling Quarter Backs they have faced in that time.

Justin Herbert is not struggling and he is surrounded by some talented Receiving options and a decent Running Back in Austin Ekeler.

It has not been easy to run the ball against the Jaguars Defensive Line and they restricted the impact that Ekeler was able to make in their blow out win on the road over the Chargers. The Titans did have some joy on the ground with Derrick Henry and Joshua Dobbs from the Quarter Back position, but the Chargers will be happy enough throwing the ball if they have to.

That was not the case for the Titans and there are some vulnerabilities in the Jacksonville Secondary with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer likely to have the edge over the Defensive Backs. Justin Herbert is confident of finding those behind an Offensive Line that has offered their Quarter Back a bit more time throwing the ball down the field.

With Austin Ekeler a solid safety blanket in the passing game, I think the Chargers will be confident of earning the win on the road, but this really feels like a close game.

With that in mind, the spread is much harder to work out at the number below a Field Goal amount of points and I think I could make a case for both teams. Two inexperienced Quarter Backs in PlayOff Football clouds things a bit more, but my narrowest of leans has to be with the home underdog finding a way to win this one outright.

Instead of the spread, I am going to look for the two teams to finish below the total line set for the game.

The Defensive units look to match up pretty well with the Offenses they are going to face and I do think it will be a closely fought game.

The under is actually 11-3 in the last fourteen Jacksonville home games and it is also 5-1 in the last six Los Angeles Chargers games. With the teams looking to establish the run, I do think the game could be shortened and it should be a lower scoring game than the layers may expect if turnovers are avoided to offer up short fields.

Whoever wins is likely to be a significant underdog next week in the Divisional Round, but this is an important game for the development of the franchise Quarter Back for both teams, although it may be a game dominated by the Defensive units.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has been a season of progress for the Miami Dolphins (9-8), but it is likely going to end with a 'one and done' post-season appearance. And for all of the positives, there is a huge question mark over the franchise and that is what to do with Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back.

After an uneven time in the professional ranks, Mike McDaniel has really gotten something out of Tua Tagovailoa, but the big problem has been the durability of a player that is going to want a huge contract extension sooner rather than later. The concussions are bad luck, but also partly down to the mismanagement of the early one that was suffered by Tagovailoa, but it has ruled him out of the Super Wild Card Round and it is hard to know if he will be activated even if Miami are to cause a monumental upset on Sunday.

When Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, the Miami Dolphins have looked like they could have a team that will develop into one that can win the Super Bowl. That is why there is a serious question for the Miami management team in deciding how to move forward, although I expect the Dolphins to be linked with a major name veteran or two during this off-season (book Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as those names).

For now the concentration for the Dolphins is how they can do enough Offensively to keep up with the AFC East Champions Buffalo Bills (13-3) who missed out on the Bye Week into the Divisional Round having played one game fewer than the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't think many associated with Buffalo will care too much about that after hearing the news that Damar Hamlin looks to be taking the right steps towards recovery and I do think that news is something that can give the whole team a boost in the post-season.

They are a massive favourite to win this game with the Miami Dolphins banged up and potentially having to play third string Quarter Back, Skylar Thompson, again. Teddy Bridgewater has a damaged finger on his throwing hand so even if he gets the start, you have to believe he is going to have a hard time getting the ball out to the likes of Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill and this game does have the potential of getting ugly.

Running the ball has been a way to get at the Buffalo Defensive unit, but once again Miami have picked up an injury at a bad time with Raheem Mostert likely to miss out. Jeff Wilson has had some success, but it was Mostert who ran the ball really well when these two Divisional rivals met last month and I think the Bills Defensive Line may choose to clamp down on the run and dare a banged up veteran or a rookie to beat them with their arm.

Miami's Offensive Line will offer up some time, but Skylar Thompson has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and this week is facing a Buffalo Secondary that has recovered some health. Damar Hamlin came in to replace Micah Hyde and the latter is not likely to play until the AFC Championship Game, if Buffalo get there, but I am not sure Miami have the tools to have a lot of success and this could be really tough if they fall a couple of scores behind.

There is every chance that could happen relatively quickly, even if Josh Allen has not played quite up to the level we all know he possesses at Quarter Back.

Unlike the Dolphins, Buffalo may not be able to lean on their running game as they have in recent weeks with the Miami Defensive Line continuing to clog up lanes and hitting Running Backs in the backfield for losses. Josh Allen is a dual-threat at Quarter Back and did have some big runs in the last game against Miami, and that element did allow the Bills to produce 150 yards on the ground in that narrow win in this Stadium so it could be down to Allen to open things up for his own passing game to thrive.

It will be another cold afternoon for these teams in Buffalo, but clearer conditions should give Buffalo's passing game a chance to shine.

Josh Allen did light up this Secondary in the win in December and I think he will be able to pick up from where he left off. The Miami Dolphins have played hard on the Defensive side of the ball to make up for the absence of Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back, but there are too many weapons for Buffalo to exploit the problems that can be had in the passing game and I do think this will give Buffalo every opportunity to cover a mammoth spread.

It really would not be a massive surprise if Skylar Thompson throws an Interception or two to offer up short fields for Buffalo, which eventually leads to the blow out, although this spread is likely to be in play right into the Fourth Quarter.

Make no mistake about that with the number where it is and a backdoor cover could occur if the Bills have a big lead and decide to pull some of their starters. However, Wild Card home teams are a perfect 12-0 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 9.5 points and Buffalo can certainly pull away for a big win here.

Skylar Thompson would also be impacted by the trend that says first time PlayOff Quarter Backs are just 17-39-1 against the spread since 2004 when they are playing opposite an experienced PlayOff Quarter Back, while I expect a strong Defensive Head Coach like Sean McDermott to have one or two surprises for the rookie behind Center.

This is a big number, but Buffalo have all of the momentum and talent to cover... Blow out in my opinion.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Another rematch from a regular season meeting in December takes place in Minneapolis on Sunday in the Super Wild Card Round when home team Minnesota Vikings (13-4) host the New York Giants (9-7-1). This is not only a rematch between the teams, but they are meeting in the same venue and there is every chance this will be just as close as the regular season game.

The higher Seed is once again the favourite, but the spread is not as high as the first meeting and I think it is a massive shame we cannot get more than a Field Goal worth of points with the New York Giants again.

There is some pressure on the New York Quarter Back with Daniel Jones making his first PlayOff start, and I have mentioned the poor trend those first timers have when opposed by a Quarter Back that does have post-season experience.

However, the New York Giants should be able to move the ball pretty efficiently throughout the course of the Super Wild Card Round and the Giants are well rested having given the starters Week 18 to recover. The feeling is that will not have broken any rhythm that the Giants have picked up Offensively with Daniel Jones throwing to his patched up Receivers and having that week rest could be crucial.

The Vikings rested their own starters for much of the Week 18 win over the Chicago Bears too, but they have been a team that has struggled Defensively all season and I just don't know how that changes now.

A major problem has been an inability to stop the run and Saquon Barkley should have a strong performance for the Giants, while Daniel Jones can also move the ball with his legs. Establishing the run sets up everything that the New York Giants will want to do in this game and they have seen Jones find a solid enough connection with the Receivers on the roster that have stepped up as injuries have taken away some of the stronger players on the team.

Daniel Jones should be well protected and the Minnesota Secondary numbers down the stretch look better because teams felt they didn't need to throw against them as they have been gashed on the ground. This is a Secondary that can be exploited though and Jones should find himself having a few options whenever he gets into play-action calls coming through the headset.

I am quite critical of the Minnesota Vikings, but that is largely because their thirteen wins in the regular season seem vastly overinflated as to where they should have been.

However, the Giants have not been much better Defensively and I think the experience of Kirk Cousins coupled with the talent on the Offensive side of the ball should mean Minnesota have plenty of success when they have the ball in their hands too.

Dalvin Cook has remained one of the better Running Backs in the NFL and he should be able to put the Vikings in a position where they do not have to deal with third and long situations to move the chains. They may not have the same mobility out of the Quarter Back, but the Giants have struggled to clamp down on the run and Cook is capable of managing the workload and pushing ahead for the big gain at any time.

This is also very important for Kirk Cousins, who has not been as well protected by the Offensive Line as he would have liked and who would potentially be under significant pass rush pressure when the Vikings find themselves behind the chains. Avoiding mistakes is the key for Minnesota and allowing Cousins to use the play-action to slow down the pass rush and hit his Receivers down the field.

You do have to credit the Giants Secondary for the level at which they are performing, but closing down Justin Jefferson and this Receiving corps will not be easy. They should have some success if they can win at the line of scrimmage and I do think the Giants may have the slight edge in this game, which makes the points in their favour look appealing enough.

Backing Daniel Jones and the Giants means going against a very strong trend that would suggest the Minnesota Vikings are the right side, but I simply do not believe they are the better team and missing a push, at the worst, would be a disappointment.

These two teams both missed the PlayOffs last season and the home team in the Super Wild Card Round in that situation have gone 3-15 against the spread since 2006, which goes against the Vikings here.

Minnesota also closed the season on a 1-4 run against the spread and the New York Giants are 7-0 against the spread following a loss. With a rested team, I think the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings will both push one another, but this time I believe the Giants can earn revenge for the regular season defeat at this same Stadium.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Losing in Week 18 meant the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) were not able to force a coin-toss that would potentially have meant hosting this Super Wild Card Round game. Instead the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) secured home field for this big game, although teams who have lost their last regular season game and then facing the same opponent in the PlayOffs have tended to be very strong against the spread.

That is about as positive as you can really feel about the Ravens who have simply put too much pressure on their own Defensive unit in the absence of Lamar Jackson. A big contract decision has to be made by the Ravens and Jackson in the off-season, but for now the Quarter Back position is one that has not seen good enough play without Jackson to believe the Ravens can have a very deep post-season run.

Despite playing a number of back up players and a third string Quarter Back in Week 18, the Baltimore Ravens did show they can be competitive against the AFC North Champions. Tyler Huntley could be back this week for Baltimore to give them stronger play out of the Quarter Back position, but Snoop has not really been able to come close to the production you would expect from Lamar Jackson and it has seen the Ravens fail to score more than 17 points in any game since the end of November.

As I said in Week 18, it does feel like the Baltimore Ravens match up poorly with the Cincinnati Defensive unit and I am not sure they are going to be able to produce much better in this Super Wild Card Round game. Tyler Huntley will get some help from the running game and he should be able to make some plays on the ground himself, but the Bengals have been pretty good against the run in recent games and I expect they are going to dare Baltimore to beat them with the pass.

Baltimore will have some success on the ground, but they need Huntley to find something in the passing game, anything that may force the Cincinnati Bengals to think twice about loading the box. There are some issues in the Bengals Secondary and Anthony Brown highlighted that by throwing for almost 300 yards through the air in the Week 18 defeat, although turnovers effectively made it a poor performance.

Turnovers have been very important for the Bengals of late and I do think they can produce a couple more on the day to take control of this game.

And there is almost no doubt that Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Offense are going to have the stronger consistency when it comes to moving the ball when they have it, although they cannot underestimate how good this Baltimore Defensive unit can be.

Last week would have shown the Bengals how difficult the starting Baltimore unit are going to make life for them and Joe Burrow will know he is likely going to have to put the team on his shoulders to win the game. The Cincinnati Offensive Line have not been consistent in the run game, even with Joe Mixon in the backfield, and they are not expected to get a lot of change from the Baltimore Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on the run effectively.

In Week 18 they limited the Bengals to just 55 yards on the ground and the Ravens have to feel they can make the home team a little one-dimensional in this one too. Those turnovers mentioned were the key for Cincinnati in their win over Baltimore last week, but a cleaner game will give the road team some opportunities as they look for the upset over the current AFC Champions.

With the team likely to be in obvious passing positions on the field, Joe Burrow will have to deal with a Baltimore pass rush as he attempts to move the ball against a tough Secondary.

Joe Burrow does have some strong Receiving options and those are likely to win some of their battles on the outside, but I think Baltimore's key Defensive players will step up and keep this one close by holding down the Bengals Offensive output.

A first time Quarter Back playing in the PlayOff is a trend against Baltimore, but I do like the way teams have bounced back from losing their last regular season game and facing the same opponent in the opening Round of the post-season.

Cincinnati have been very strong at home and they have positive trends that support them, but I think John Harbaugh will have a plan for this game that gives Baltimore a chance. They are still likely to come up short, but the Ravens should be stronger than last week and I think they make use of getting more than a Touchdown worth of points as the underdog in this Super Wild Card Round game.

The road team is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine between these AFC North Divisional rivals and I think the Baltimore Ravens can find enough plays to secure a cover.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The final Super Wild Card PlayOff game of the weekend will be played on Monday evening and the winner will know exactly what the Divisional Round holds for them before kick off. However, the focus has to be on winning and extending the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) become the only team to host a PlayOff game with a losing record this season against the Dallas Cowboys (12-5).

All season we have been waiting for the Buccaneers to find their rhythm in the 2022 season, but that has not happened.

There were some positive signs in the important Week 17 win over the Carolina Panthers and the Offensive Line could have a boost with a potentially returning Ryan Jensen at Center. He has been a huge miss for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay team all season, but Jensen looks to be trending towards a return and that will be big for the Buccaneers.

Tom Brady will need all of the support he can get from his Offensive Line as the Buccaneers look for a home upset and a visit to either Philadelphia or San Francisco. Improved play up front will also be important to try and get something consistent out of the rushing attack, an area where the Buccaneers have struggled all season.

Even if they are finding their feet in run blocking, the Buccaneers are facing a Dallas Defensive Line which has shown improvement in clamping down on the run. They finished the season holding teams to 3.6 yards per carry and this Tampa Bay team are not expected to get much more going even if the likes of Ryan Jensen are back.

Where Jensen and company can make a difference is giving Tom Brady enough time to try and hit his Receivers down the field. Earlier in the season the Dallas pass rush was playing with freedom and hitting the Quarter Back time and time again, but that has changed in recent weeks and Brady is also someone who will get the ball out of his hands quickly enough to negate the pressure he feels.

And the slowing of the pass rush has also meant the Dallas Secondary have begun to give up some significant passing plays, which should also be very encouraging to Brady and company. Of course you do have to wonder if you can really trust a Tampa Bay team that have seemingly underperformed most weeks, but the same criticism can be levelled at the Dallas Cowboys who have regularly fallen short when it comes to the post-season.

The Week 18 performance will be a concern for long-suffering Dallas fans and they will know they cannot afford to see the team make the kinds of mistakes that they did in the defeat to the Washington Commanders. Dak Prescott has had good moments, but continues to turn the ball over and that is not the way you can win in the post-season.

The Quarter Back may point to a lack of success in establishing the run as a contributory factor in his recent performances, but Dallas may feel they can get Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard back on track against this Tampa Bay Defensive Line. It is very important for Dallas to do that and avoid leaving Dak Prescott in third and long spots and those obvious passing situations and the line of scrimmage may be where this PlayOff game is either won or lost.

If the Cowboys can stay in front of the chains, the Tampa Bay Secondary is one that can be exploited and Dallas do have Receivers like CeeDee Lamb who can make plays for them down the field. That is so important for Dallas as they bid to win a PlayOff game and build some confidence and momentum in the post-season, but this feels like the kind of game where they will come up short.

Dallas have been able to bounce back from losses very well, but they are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games.

It has been a season long struggle for Tampa Bay to cover in games as they have tended to be over-rated by the oddsmakers, but Wild Card road favourites are now just 7-8-1 against the spread in the last sixteen games with that situation. That includes Los Angeles Chargers failing to cover on Saturday evening and I think Tampa Bay with the points is the play here.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars-Los Angeles Chargers Under 48.5 Total Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New York Giants + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2019 (January 15th)

There are always going to be twists and turns when making Tennis Picks through the two weeks of a Grand Slam, but Day 1 did not feel great especially not with the start made by those selections.

When Julia Goerges failed to serve out her match that she had dominated through the first two sets it did set the tone for some of the early selections made.

Things slightly improved during the course of the day, but I expect much better going forward even if the Australian Open early Rounds tend to be a little more erratic than the other Grand Slams thanks to the position of the tournament on the Tennis calendar.


The big headline from the Australian Open on Day 1 was the First Round match featuring Andy Murray after his announcement a few days ago that he might have to call time on his career in Melbourne. You would never have guessed he was not at 100% as he fought back from 0-2 down in sets against Roberto Bautista Agut before falling away in the fifth set decider.

While the Australian Open decided to play a montage featuring his peers congratulating Murray on his impending retirement, the player himself made it clear this might not be his last match in Melbourne after all. I think Murray is going to go home and have a think if he can get through to Wimbledon and then perhaps call time on his career then, or whether he should go in for major hip surgery which potentially will give him another crack at returning to the Tour.

I can imagine the competitive juices that helped Murray achieve so much in his career are flowing and I think he will try and come back. Either way he showed the kind of heart and determination that has been a feature of his career and I do hope Murray can find peace in working out how he wants his career to end.


The First Round continues on Tuesday and you can read some of my analysis below before the remainder of the Day 2 Picks are placed in the 'MY PICKS' section at the bottom of this post.


Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Benoit Paire: In the last couple of years Dominic Thiem has cemented his spot in the top 10 of the World Rankings, but there continues to be a criticism with the way he schedules his season that prevents him from really unlocking his full potential. It is something that Thiem is very much aware of and in 2018 he was rewarded with his best season on the hard courts and with a clear improvement made all around.

Another Group exit in the ATP World Tour Finals will have disappointed Thiem who was also a very early loser in Doha to start to 2019 season, but none of that is a major concern.

Last year Thiem came into the Australian Open having been beaten in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals a couple of months early and that didn't stop the Austrian from reaching the Fourth Round. While Thiem has yet to make the Quarter Final in Melbourne, he has reached the Fourth Round in his last five Slams played on the hards courts in Australia and the United States and I think he can come through what looks a difficult First Round match on paper.

His opponent is Benoit Paire who can be very good on his day, although those days are often seen less frequently than his fans would like. The Frenchman has a pretty poor record in the Grand Slams overall, but the worst of his records comes here at the Australian Open and the numbers on the hard courts are generally not that effective.

Paire holds serve at around the 74% mark on the hard courts and that means he is usually under some pressure to find the returns to hurt opponents. Compare to that Dominic Thiem who improved his hold percentage to 86% on the hard courts in 2018, but had been at 81% in each of the previous two seasons which is still some way higher than his opponent.

With both holding very similar return numbers, I can see this match developing very much like the one between these two here at the Australian Open two years ago. On that day Thiem came through in four sets with one of those being a comfortable set for him and I can see something like that happening here with the Austrian much improved in the two years since these players last met and Paire pretty much on a similar level.


Nick Kyrgios-Milos Raonic over 43.5 games: If it wasn't for injury and the time it takes to rebuild the World Rankings, I would imagine this First Round match would be one more suited to the second week of a Grand Slam. Some may disagree, especially about Nick Kyrgios, but both the Australian and Milos Raonic have reached the latter stages of Slam events and they have the kind of games that can give anyone problems.

Much depends on what side of bed Kyrgios has gotten out of on Tuesday as he has the big serve and power to put Raonic under immense pressure.

However Raonic is a much steadier character all in all and that means you have more faith in knowing what you are going to get out of him from match to match. Both men are going to be heavily relying on their serves which generally see both Kyrgios and Raonic holding at the very high 80s in terms of percentage, although the doubts about the fitness of both make it a tougher match to really get a good read on.

You would worry for either player if they were to go 2-0 down in sets, but breaks of serve look few and far between unless one of them capitulates. Even in matches between the players, Kyrgios has held serve 86% of the time and Raonic has managed to do the same 91% of the time and I do see a situation where a couple of tie-breakers will be needed in this match too.

This is the fourth meeting at a Grand Slam and it is Raonic who leads 2-1, but the last of those was won by Kyrgios back in July 2015 at Wimbledon. My slight lean goes to Raonic getting the better of the home player in this one, but it does have all the makings of a very tight match in the night session on Tuesday.

Nick Kyrgios has never suffered a First Round exit in the main draw at the Australian Open though and I think he will be inspired in the atmosphere to really compete. He hasn't played a lot of tennis to open the season as a spider bite on his foot made it difficult, but I think we are going to see at least four sets played by these two players and the serving both Raonic and Kyrgios produce should give us every chance of seeing the total games surpassed.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Destanee Aiava: There won't have been too many times that Madison Keys would have been described as the 'veteran' in a match at her tender age, but the American has five years on her opponent in the First Round at the Australian Open.

A Wild Card has given Destanee Aiava the chance to play in the main draw of her home Grand Slam for the third year in a row, although the 18 year old is still searching for a first win in Melbourne. A decent start to the 2019 season in preparation for this tournament will have given Aiava some belief even if she found herself on the wrong end of a couple of tough scorelines in her losses.

Now she should feel a little more ready to compete than Madison Keys who is playing her first competitive match of the season. That may give Aiava a chance for a potential upset having pushed Simona Halep to 7-6 in the first set twelve months ago, although the raw numbers suggest there is still some way to go before the youngster is really making an impact on the main WTA Tour.

In general the serve is a decent weapon for Aiava, but she has not been able to get as much joy from the return as she would have liked. That may be underlined in this First Round match when Aiava faces Madison Keys whose power from the serve and forehand propels any success she has on the court.

Keys does enjoy the conditions in Melbourne and the heat should not really affect her. The American has reached the Fourth Round in her last three Australian Open tournaments and this is one of three Grand Slam events where Keys has made the Semi Final.

2018 was a very big year for Keys who reached two Slam Semi Finals as well as a Quarter Final and I think she is going to have too much firepower for Aiava. One criticism of Keys is she is perhaps not as dominant on the return of serve as you would want her to be considering the power she can rip through the ball, but I think Aiava will offer up enough chances in this one for Keys to find her rhythm and eventually break down her younger opponent's game.

In eight of her last eleven wins on the hard courts at Slams in Australia and the United States Keys would have covered this spread and I am going to back her to do that in the First Round here.


Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Tatjana Maria: The last time we saw Serena Williams in a Grand Slam match it was the infamous US Open Final where her tirade against the umpire overshadowed the fact that she was outplayed by Naomi Osaka.

That was the second Slam in a row where Serena had fallen just short of tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Singles Slams won, but she heads into the Australian Open as the favourite to win the title here. The last Grand Slam Serena Williams also came in Melbourne two years ago, but the competition may have stepped up and Williams has to show she is still the dominant women's player on the planet.

Don't expect Williams to be undercooked with the last true competitive match being played back in September as she did win her three Hopman Cup matches earlier this month. None of those were very strong wins, but Williams was barely tested in her run to the Wimbledon and US Open Finals in the last six months and players in the First and Second Round are still going to be in awe of the American.

First up is Tatjana Maria whose return of serve can be a weakness and going to make it very difficult to beat someone like Serena Williams who possesses arguably the best serve in the history of the sport. In the last year Maria has faced a couple of big name opponents in the hard court Grand Slam events and barely laid a glove on either Maria Sharapova or Elina Svitolina and I do think something similar will happen here.

I won't ignore the fact that the Williams numbers on the hard courts were not the best in 2018, but she did show signs of getting back to her best during the US hard court swing. I believe that will at least continue early in the Australian Open who has loved playing in Melbourne having reached the Final the last three times she has competed at this tournament and winning two of those.

As long as Serena Williams serves even close to her best, I think she will have Maria under pressure in this match from the off. That should allow Williams to tee off on a few returns once she sees the second serve and I think she can win and cover a big number in this First Round match.


Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: Injuries and motherhood have seen Victoria Azarenka slip down the World Rankings and really struggle to return to the once incredibly strong tennis she was able to produce on the Tour. The Belarusian was a credible threat to Serena Williams back in 2016, but she has not been able to find that level consistently since then and things have changed on the Tour.

For starters Azarenka is no longer the biggest threat to win a Grand Slam title coming from Belarus with Aryna Sabalenka stealing her thunder. The performances of the younger player have overshadowed Azarenka, but I do think that could work to the benefit of the former World Number 1 over the course of the 2019 season.

The First Round match against Laura Siegemund will be one featuring another player whose injuries have curtailed a career that had been peaking when they struck. The German reached a peak career World Ranking in August 2016, but the 39 wins she achieved that season have been replaced by a total of 36 wins in 2017 and 2018 combined.

Clay courts have been the favoured domain of Siegemund and her numbers on the hard courts are really not that inspiring so I do think Azarenka has every chance of getting her Australian Open off to a strong start. Even in Siegemund's best season on the Tour her hard court numbers were average at best and they have since declined in the last couple of years.

Siegemund's best run at the Australian Open also came in 2016, unsurprisingly, when she reached the Third Round. This is unlikely to be matched here and the bigger question for Azarenka is whether she can serve well enough to make it through the match without too many difficulties.

The second serve has been a real weakness for Azarenka over the last few months and she has to make sure she isn't giving Siegemund too much encouragement as the latter will defend and run all day long. I think the Azarenka quality on the ground can at least see her keep Siegemund under pressure on her own return though and I think that will be a key reason Azarenka is able to win and cover here.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios-Milos Raonic Over 43.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Hubert Hurkacz Over 46.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alja Tomljanovic @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-7, - 2.86 Units (26 Units Staked, - 11% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2018 (January 15th)

The first Grand Slam of the tennis season will begin on Monday and I am looking forward to both the men's and women's draw and hoping we are going to get to see some brilliant tennis over the next couple of weeks.

Timing is an issue with the majority of matches taking place while we sleep in the United Kingdom, but the evening sessions means early risers and late sleepers will all get a chance to watch the tennis over the next fortnight.

I have made a few outright picks from both events being played at Melbourne Park and those can be read here.


The rain in Melbourne has played havoc with the Qualifiers this week as most should have been completed by Saturday. However there are a few to get through on Sunday and that means some of the First Round matches that have been scheduled for Monday have not even been set yet (at the time I am writing this post).

On Day 1 we will see the top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw get underway. The weather looks a lot better this week so there will be plenty of tennis to enjoy and I am looking forward to a couple of really good weeks to get the 2018 season off to bang.

Onto the Day 1 Australian Open Tennis Picks from the First Round matches scheduled.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 games v Jason Kubler: The hard courts are not the favoured courts for a player like Pablo Carreno Busta, but it would still be a surprise to see the Spaniard Seeded player beaten in a match like this. While he doesn't have the same penetration through the courts as the big hitters on the Tour, Carreno Busta certainly has the consistency to force mistakes out of an inexperienced opponent.

Jason Kubler will have the home support here and he has come through the Qualifiers to win a Challenger event in 2018 which will have given him a boost in confidence. However that also highlights the difference in levels that Kubler and Carreno Busta play at with the former having to play Qualifiers to get into a Challenger level event compared with Carreno Busta who is a Seed at a Grand Slam tournament.

The run to the Semi Final at the US Open last year was unexpected, and that has boosted the Carreno Busta Ranking, but he has struggled since then. In fact Carreno Busta has won just one match on the Tour following the loss to Kevin Anderson in New York City and his sole appearance in a competitive match in 2018 saw the Spaniard go down against talented youngster Borna Coric.

A lack of confidence could be the biggest factor against Carreno Busta here, but it should be a decent match up for him and I would expect he can outlast Kubler in the First Round.

Kubler has to be respected with the Challenger title under his belt, and as a former Junior standout, but I think Carreno Busta will do enough to wear him down over four sets. As the match wears on there could be opportunities for the Seeded player to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve and he should be able to cover this number.


Andreas Seppi - 5.5 games v Corentin Moutet: This is the Grand Slam debut of Corentin Moutet and it is in fact the first main Tour match the 18 year old Frenchman is playing in his career.

That should mean a few nerves from a player who has been mainly participating in Futures and Challengers events, although it has to be noted that Moutet has had good success at that level over the past couple of years. Now he takes the step up to face better competition and it is veteran Andreas Seppi who is the First Round opponent for him.

Andreas Seppi won a Challenger event in preparation for the Australian Open so is in good nick despite the drop in the World Ranking. It is an important tournament for him having reached the Fourth Round at Melbourne Park last year and the conditions have suited him as the Italian has taken some big scalps here over the years with wins over Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios behind him.

There will be chances for Moutet in this match simply because of all the tennis Seppi had to play last week to win the Challenger event in Canberra. The Italian also has a serve that can be attacked and I wouldn't be massively surprised if the youngster is able to take a set.

However it will be tough in the first best of five set match of his career to really keep the consistency at the level Moutet will like. That is where Seppi should be able to turn things in his favour and I can see a situation where fatigue helps wear down Moutet against a player who has shown his ability to win long matches in Australia in his career. Eventually it could lead to Moutet losing some belief which can see Seppi pull away for a win and a cover of this number of games.


John Isner - 4.5 games v Matthew Ebden: There have been definite signs that John Isner's best days are behind him. Having a booming serve helps, but his overall play is not at the level it once was and that does mean Isner has a few more issues looking after his serve if players are able to block the ball back into play.

The returning game has always been something of a weakness, but being unable to generate mental pressure with his own serve has been an issue for Isner.

The serve does mean Isner can be in a position to win many matches this season, but the tie-break record doesn't feel like the best over the last twelve months and that is a problem for Isner. While I think he will still have some deep runs, Isner might be a candidate for a few early exits in events even in matches where he is heavily favoured.

Is this match one of those? Matthew Ebden will have the home support but he is a player who has struggled when he has made the step up to main ATP level competition. Ebden also has a 0-3 record against Isner which is likely to play a factor in this First Round match with the last of those coming in the Newport Final in July.

The conditions should be ones that Isner will enjoy and while Ebden can push this into a couple of tie-breakers, and perhaps win one, I also think the Australian does offer up a few chances on his serve. Isner has found those breaks of serve in their previous matches against each other and I think he can win this in either three or four sets.

I will be expecting Isner to win one or two of those sets with a break of serve and I think that will be enough to ensure he can cover what is a big number for the American even in a best of five set match.


Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: There have been some questions about the fitness of Rafael Nadal going into the Australian Open, especially as he pulled out of the first tournament he had entered without hitting a ball. However he looked good in the Tie Break Tens competition and I think the World Number 1 is ready for a big tournament.

He is certainly given a very good chance to ease into the tournament with an opening match against veteran Victor Estrella Burgos.

Estrella Burgos had a decent run in Canberra last week, but the tennis he plays these days mostly come at that Challenger level. His loss was one sided to Andreas Seppi in the Semi Final and Richard Gasquet beat Estrella Burgos for the loss of just two games in Doha.

The problem for Estrella Burgos is going to be how to win points against Nadal even if the Spaniard is not at 100%. The serve won't generate too many easy points and Nadal is going to be too strong in most rallies which makes it difficult to see how this match can be that competitive.

There isn't much room for mistakes from Nadal when it comes to covering as many games as this one, but this match really does feel like a 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 one. However Nadal has been able to produce some one sided sets during his ascent to the World Number 1 spot over the last twelve months and this is a match that the Spaniard should be able to dominate and I am looking for that to be reflected in the final score.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 7.5 games v Kevin King: Coming through three Qualifiers to reach the main draw of a Grand Slam does earn plenty of respect for those players who can achieve that. Kevin King has managed to do that this year, but the competition ramps up significantly for him as he takes on a former Australian Open Finalist in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The Frenchman did reach the Quarter Final here at Melbourne Park last season, but generally Tsonga did not have a good time in the Grand Slams. He will be looking to improve at a tournament that Tsonga has enjoyed down the years and it would be a big surprise if someone like King is able to get the best of him in a best of five set match.

The majority of King's time is spent below the main ATP Tour level and he hadn't shown a lot of form in recent months to think he was ready to Qualify for a Grand Slam. An early loss in a Challenger event in Noumea was the only appearance in 2018 prior to the Qualifiers here in Melbourne Park and it is going to take something special for King to beat Tsonga.

The more interesting question is whether King can stay within the number of games set on the handicap. He is playing an opponent who can be a little predictable in his returns and Tsonga has had issues with big spreads in the past if he begins slowly.

However I do think King's serve is one that Tsonga should be able to make some penetrative returns from, especially the second serve, and that should give him every chance to at least win one set with a couple of breaks. At some point I also think fatigue could be a problem for Kevin King, both mentally and physically, and that should also aid Tsonga who should prove far too strong in this First Round match.


Alison Riske - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: I am not sure where I stand about Alison Riske- there are times I have watched her play and thought she should be higher up the Rankings and others when I struggle to understand how she wins matches. There is nothing really spectacular about Riske, but the American is a decent competitor and can produce some pop off the ground, while her movement is decent enough too.

A very similar player is Kirsten Flipkens, but I think Riske is slightly better in most departments except perhaps movement around the court. That is partly the reason Riske has a 2-0 head to head record against Flipkens as she is also able to get a few more cheaper points out of the first serve.

That is going to be critical for Riske if she is going to win this match and I do think she can do that. Flipkens also had to pull out from the tournament in Hobart during the week and I do wonder if she is going to be at full health in this First Round match against an opponent who has gotten the better of her in their two previous matches.

In both of those wins it was the serve that made all of the difference for Riske and the conditions in Melbourne should be to her liking. It isn't going to be too hot and so both players should be able to compete in the long rallies that will develop, but it is those 'cheap' points difference that should see Riske come through.

I am expecting Riske to win this one in straight sets and she should be good enough to cover this number of games too.


Coco Vandeweghe - 3.5 games v Timea Babos: 2017 has proven to be a breakthrough year for Coco Vandeweghe with strong runs in both hard court Grand Slam tournaments helping her up to Number 10 in the World Rankings. Many have felt Vandeweghe has the big game to become a Grand Slam winner, and her improvement on the backhand wing is certainly helping out.

That had been a glaring weakness Vandeweghe had, but she is becoming much more competent on that side which is backing up a big serve and forehand she does possess. It certainly means Vandeweghe is a threat to win the Australian Open, but she has to make sure she does not overlook Timea Babos despite the poor 2017 the Hungarian had.

This year has opened up with a Quarter Final run in Shenzhen for Babos after finishing with 15 fewer wins in 2017 as she had achieved in 2016. There is a big game in Babos who has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes and I think that has to be respected by Vandeweghe if she wishes to avoid the upset.

With the way Vandeweghe was playing in 2017, I do think she will make sure she is well prepared for this match too. The American has to feel this is a big chance to win a Grand Slam with a decent draw and in the 'weaker' half of the draw, but Vandeweghe has to make sure she doesn't look too far ahead.

If she can concentrate, I would imagine Vandeweghe can win a big hitting match with the superior serve proving to be the difference between the two. Timea Babos is likely to have a better 2018 than she did in 2017, but the first Slam of the year should end in the First Round here as Vandeweghe is able to come through in straight sets.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 4.5 games v Kateryna Kozlova: This is a large number of games for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to cover if she comes out with the inconsistency she can sometimes produce on the court. However I think the match up with Kateryna Kozlova is one that the Russian should enjoy and I am going to back her to win this First Round match by a relatively comfortable margin.

This is the first match of the season for both players on the main Tour, although Kozlova suffered an early loss in an ITF tournament to open 2018.

Both players will look to dictate behind heavy groundstrokes, but I think Pavlyuchenkova is the superior player and that is enough to give her the lean in this First Round match. There are times when her serve can be a little erratic, but Kozlova will be put under pressure on her own delivery and it is Pavlyuchenkova who I believe will be able to dictate the rallies more often than not.

The hard courts are the favoured surface for Kozlova and the majority of her better results at this level have come on the surface. That does make her potentially dangerous, and she can get into a positive frame of mind and run through games to keep this closer than expected, but I think a lot will have to come down in her favour in terms of taking her break point chances and playing the big points on the Pavlyuchenkova serve.

I just believe the Russian is going to have this match on her racquet and I can see a break more in each set leading to a 6-3, 6-4 win for Pavlyuchenkova.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After winning the WTA Finals in October, Caroline Wozniacki comes into the 2018 Australian Open as the Number 2 player in the World Rankings. The Dane might feel she won't have too many better chances to win a maiden Grand Slam with the way the draw has panned out this week, and Wozniacki showed strong form when reaching the Final in Auckland.

She faces a somewhat familiar opponent in Mihaela Buzarnescu after meeting each other in the US Open First Round back in August. On that day Wozniacki breezed through the first set before having to battle in the second and this match feels like it might be similar.

Much of that is down to the fact that Wozniacki's serve can be attacked by most professional players, although Wozniacki is in fine form in recent months and should have the mental fortitude to come through difficult moments. Wozniacki has not been able to produce her best tennis at the Australian Open in recent years, but I don't think she would have come in with as much confidence as this year since her time as the World Number 1.

Buzarnescu has to be given plenty of respect having reached the Final in Hobart last week before a three set loss to Elise Mertens. She is also playing some of the best tennis of her career at 29 years old with 2017 proving to be the best season Buzarnescu has had on the Tour and will see her step up to the main Tour level going forward.

The lefty can cause problems for Wozniacki, but there will be times when the difference in levels between the players should be evident. That should give Wozniacki every chance to put a run of a few games together which can help her cover this number in the First Round and I will back the Dane to do that.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)