Tennis Picks 2021- WTA Finals (November 13th)

After a strong start to the WTA Finals, Day 3 was a little frustrating, but the tournament continues with the middle matches to be completed.

One Semi Final spot has been confirmed with Anett Kontaveit moving through to continue her fine form, but another could be decided when Maria Sakkari takes on Paula Badosa in the first match of Day 4.

Maria Sakkari v Paula Badosa: Both of these players won their opening WTA Finals match in straight sets and that means the winner of this one will be virtually assured of a place in the Semi Final. Maria Sakkari and Paula Badosa were the two most impressive players through the opening two days at the WTA Finals and this has all the makings of a really quality match.

Over the last twelve months there has been a slight edge in favour of Maria Sakkari when it comes to the hard court matches, and she was a strong winner over Iga Swiatek. The serve proved to be a big weapon for the aggressive player and Maria Sakkari will need to be as efficient behind that shot again if she is going to win a second match in the Group.

Playing the Indian Wells Champion will be a challenge and especially after Paula Badosa used the energy of the crowd to win ten games in a row as she upset Aryna Sabalenka in her opening match in Guadalajara. The Spanish background means the Mexicans have something to relate to with Paula Badosa and they seemed to be very much pushing her to come back from an early break of serve as she rolled past Sabalenka.

Paula Badosa played well and her return was particularly efficient in the match and the feeling is that the layers are right to set this as a pick 'em match. The more impressive win in the opening matches has to be on the side of Paula Badosa as she was the underdog against the top Seed at the tournament, but I do think Aryna Sabalenka is someone who can let a match get away from her in the manner we saw.

That should not be the case with Maria Sakkari who has been happy to face the better players on the Tour and I do think she enjoyed the conditions here. She has already played in the early afternoon slot so that should benefit Maria Sakkari a little more in this match, while I think she has been a touch more consistency from the Greek player on the hard courts that suggest she can be the player that backs up the opening win.

It will be a close match and I would not be surprised if this one needs three sets to separate the two players, but my feeling is that Maria Sakkari can edge to the victory. Over the last twelve months, Maria Sakkari has been the player who has gotten a little more out of the serve than Paula Badosa and I expect that to be the difference between the on the day as the two players dig in to try and earn a Semi Final spot.

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Iga Swiatek: It is not always that interesting to hear what a player has to say after a losing performance as they can be too disappointed to really want to analyse what may have gone wrong on the day. That is not the case at the Tour Finals and especially not early in the tournament when players know they have a couple more matches to come.

That is not to say that these players are both not feeling like they let themselves down in the opening match.

Both Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek were quite critical of themselves after losing their matches on Thursday and there is some mental hurdles that will need to be overcome. Aryna Sabalenka had been leading 4-2 early in her match with Paula Badosa, but lost serve immediately and admitted that she was emotionally unable to cope as she ended up dropping ten games in a row to lose the match.

Some of that was down to the fact that Aryna Sabalenka may have felt there was not a lot of fortune coming down on her side of the net, but the Belarusian also knows she cannot allow matches to slip away in the manner she did. This is a chance to redeem herself against an opponent who was also pretty harsh on her own level after losing to Maria Sakkari.

Iga Swiatek has played Sakkari three times in 2021 and lost all three matches without winning a set and felt she had not really competed after losing serve very early on. It is a match up that she has struggled with, but that is not likely to be the case against someone like Aryna Sabalenka when it is much clearer what she is going to be facing on the other side of the net.

However, knowing what is coming and dealing with what is coming is a different story and this is a tournament in which the serve is going to be so important. That is an area that Aryna Sabalenka should be able to have an edge over Iga Swiatek, although you do have to think the Polish player will be more confident in avoiding making the mistakes that blighted both of their opening performances.

There has also been a difference in the levels produced by the players when facing opponents Ranked inside the top 10 on the hard courts. Aryna Sabalenka has a winning record in that spot, while Iga Swiatek is 0-3 and I think the bigger hitting Belarusian can find a way to win and cover the handicap as she gets her tournament back on track.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 2.90 Units (12 Units Staked, + 24.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021- WTA Finals (November 12th)

It has been a good start to the Tennis Picks from the WTA Finals, but it has only been a start.

That is what the four losing players from the first two days will be telling themselves, but the pressure is on when we get to the middle matches of the Group Stage of the tournament. We may even see the first of the Semi Finalists confirmed by the end of Saturday nights play, but players cannot afford to look too far ahead in difficult conditions.

The tournament here is as much a mental challenge as it is a physical one and the players who cope best with both aspects will do well. You don't want to read too much into one match, but Maria Sakkari and Karolina Pliskova look like they are capable going far in the draw.

It can all change quickly at the Tour Finals and the next days play is always the most important rather than thinking too far down the line.

Karolina Pliskova + 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The format of the WTA Finals puts the two opening winners up against one another and both Karolina Pliskova and Anett Kontaveit will be looking to secure a second victory which may be enough to move through to the Semi Final. There is arguably a little more pressure on Karolina Pliskova who needed three sets to beat Garbine Muguruza compared with Anett Kontaveit who was a straight sets winner, but I think the layers are putting in too much stock in the length of the opening matches when setting the odds for this match.

You can't underestimate Anett Kontaveit who has now won eleven matches in a row and who is playing with real confidence under a new Coach Dmitry Tursunov. The Estonian will be looking to build on the last couple of months and hope to have a big impact at Grand Slam level in 2022 as she begins to fulfil her potential, and Anett Kontaveit's serve was in very good nick which helped her edge past Barbora Krejcikova.

She is going to have to serve well again on Friday, but Anett Kontaveit should be feeling good about her chances as she is set to go in the afternoon slot for a second match in a row. This will be a new experience for Karolina Pliskova, and the Czech player is going to want to improve her own serving numbers to stay with her in-form opponent.

However, Karolina Pliskova impressed on the return in the win over Garbine Muguruza and she will feel there is an opportunity for her to earn what the layers will consider to be an upset. She created a lot more break point chances in her win than Anett Kontaveit managed and that is despite the fact that Karolina Pliskova was arguably facing a stronger server on the day.

If she can get used to the conditions in the early afternoon slot, I do think Karolina Pliskova can keep this one very competitive at the least. The long opening match with Muguruza is an issue, but Pliskova has had time to recover and I do think the serve is a potent weapon for her that can keep this match very close.

Karolina Pliskova also holds a 3-0 head to head lead over Anett Kontaveit and that can be important if the match is close, especially when they are playing the big points in the match. I can't help but respect how well Anett Kontaveit has played since the Olympic Games as she bulled her way into the WTA Finals, but I am surprised she is considered such a big favourite to win this second match.

Anett Kontaveit is going to have to pick up her returning if she is going to win this match and I think this is plenty of games to be giving to the underdog.

Barbora Krejcikova v Garbine Muguruza: Losing your opening two matches at the Finals of either Tour event is not fatal to earning a Semi Final berth, but it certainly means you lose complete control of your own destiny. It would also need a set of results that are hard to come by for that player to have an opportunity to progress and it is particularly difficult if you have lost your opening match in straight sets.

Both Barbora Krejcikova and Garbine Muguruza were beaten on Wednesday and they will be looking to bounce back on Friday when meeting one another. The winner will have a chance of progressing when playing their last Group match, but you have to believe the unique conditions in Guadalajara will make it very difficult for the losing player both physically and emotionally.

After losses, both players are looking to bounce back- Barbora Krejcikova will be the first to admit she was not at her best a couple of days ago and she has perhaps been less than 100% down the stretch after a long season. On the other side, Garbine Muguruza will feel she was very close to winning her opening match, but that loss coupled with the almost two and a half hours spent on the court will be difficult to overcome.

Garbine Muguruza did not play that badly, but she did not manage the big points as effectively as she would have liked after winning the first set against Karolina Pliskova. It was a gruelling match, but will have felt all the worse coming out with a loss and this has proven to be a very difficult match up for the Spaniard.

The two players have faced each other three times already this season and all on the hard courts- it was Garbine Muguruza who won the first match in Dubai, but Barbora Krejcikova was a Grand Slam Champion by the time they met again in Cincinnati and at the US Open and deservedly won both matches.

They both created the same amount of break points in the Dubai Final, but Barbora Krejcikova has been the much more effective returner in the other two matches. She won both and I do think the Czech player was serving well enough in her opening defeat to believe she can get the better of Garbine Muguruza on that side of her game in this match.

There have been signs that Barbora Krejcikova is perhaps wearing down after a long season and she is also playing the Doubles tournament here. That is a concern, but I think the match up with Garbine Muguruza is one that the Czech player has enjoyed this season and she can get the better of her one more time to give herself a chance of progressing to the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 4-0, + 6.90 Units (8 Units Staked, + 86.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021- WTA Finals (November 11th)

The opening matches at the WTA Finals have been played and there were definite signs of some early struggles with the conditions.

While the tennis was decent enough, which has to be expected from the top eight WTA players, there were moments when you could see the frustration of players as the ball flew off the strings. The conditioning is also going to be tested and so the long, long match between Karolina Pliskova and Garbine Muguruza is likely going to have a big impact on both players.

They do have a day of rest between the first and second Group matches, but both players admitted the physical effort that was required and in the final set tie-breaker you could see the impact of the altitude on the players.

The Picks from the WTA Finals got off to a good start, but there is plenty of time for things to change so the key is to remain focused. The ATP Finals will get underway on Sunday, but for now the sole selections come from Guadalajara.

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 games v Iga Swiatek: There have been plenty of 'complaints' from the top players of the WTA Tour as they continue to try and make the adjustments to the conditions in Guadalajara. The altitude is one that they simply will not face during the Tour and all eight Singles players have voiced their own concerns about how they are going to adapt.

However, adapt they will.

Ultimately the tournament is not going to be moved now and so all the players involved have to try and manage their emotions during this event. There will be frustrating moments with the difficulty to control the ball as they would normally do on the Tour, while players have admitted they are going to have to deal with making mistakes that wouldn't usually occur.

Being mentally strong through these moments is going to be key throughout the WTA Finals and I do think someone like Maria Sakkari has shown she can cope on that front. The Greek player came very close to winning a maiden Grand Slam title this season and she has shown considerable improvements, although the numbers continue to be a little underwhelming which leaves Maria Sakkari vulnerable to an upset.

This tournament may suit her with many feeling that Maria Sakkari is not amongst the favourites and I do think that will see her produce some of her better tennis. No one on the Tour really intimidates Maria Sakkari and she has admitted that making the WTA Finals was a big goal that has been achieved in 2021.

She opens up against Iga Swiatek who has had another hugely successful year on the Tour even if she has not added to the French Open title she won the previous year. Iga Swiatek has not played since the Indian Wells tournament in October, but she has produced some solid numbers on the hard courts and I do think her game might be suited to the conditions with the spin meaning she is capable of avoiding the mistakes that the more aggressive players will make.

It should give Iga Swiatek a chance to win this opening Group match, but there are a couple of factors that do have me leaning towards Maria Sakkari. Her hard court numbers may not be as strong as Iga Swiatek's overall, but the players have had vastly different experiences playing against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts with Sakkari holding a winning record in 2021 and Iga Swiatek at just 2-5 in the situation.

Add in the two wins that Maria Sakkari has secured against Iga Swiatek in 2021- one of those ended the latter's reign as French Open Champion, while another win came on the hard courts of Ostrava at the end of September. In both Maria Sakkari has deserved her wins with her serve proven to be effective and I do think a strong serving day will give her the chance of winning this match too.

Dealing with the conditions will be a challenge for both players, but I think Maria Sakkari can edge to the win in three sets in this opening Group match.

Paula Badosa + 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There is no doubting how good Aryna Sabalenka can be on her day, but the World Number 2 and the top Seed at the WTA Finals will only feel she has proved herself when she wins a Grand Slam. The Belarusian will feel she let a big opportunity slip through her hands at the US Open when being upset in the Semi Final by a player she had largely outplayed in the match, and there has been little tennis played by Aryna Sabalenka since that defeat in New York City.

Like many of the other seven players in the WTA Finals, Aryna Sabalenka has arrived a few days early to Guadalajara in a bid to become accustomed to the conditions at the tournament. And like many others, Aryna Sabalenka has admitted that she has had to change the tension of her racquet strings and has been looking to get as much practice as possible to try and be ready to compete at the tournament.

She is likely going to enter all four Grand Slams amongst the favourites to win in 2022, but Sabalenka will be looking to win the biggest tournament of her career to lay the foundation for further successes. It may mean Aryna Sabalenka perhaps finding another way to win matches when she is not at her best and when errors begin to flow from her side of the court, but in the main the World Number 2 wants to come out and hit through her opponent.

It won't be easy to do that at the WTA Finals where errors could come thick and fast in the conditions the players are dealing with. Even then, Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite to win this match and she has the kind of power game that can be very difficult for opponents to deal with.

First up for Aryna Sabalenka is Paula Badosa who has enjoyed a very strong second half of the season on the hard courts. The Spaniard is at her career best World Ranking as she continues to show off her development on the Tour and Paula Badosa will be confident going into the tournament after winning a big title at Indian Wells in October.

Paula Badosa beat four top 20 Ranked players on her way to the title at Indian Wells and she has produced some solid hard court numbers since the Olympic Games. During that time she also holds a three set victory over Aryna Sabalenka so I expect the Spaniard to be confident in her ability to secure an opening success in her first ever WTA Finals match.

The key for Paula Badosa is making sure she serves well to try and keep Aryna Sabalenka at bay and it was that side of her game that enabled her to beat this opponent on the relatively quick courts of Cincinnati. Conditions here are different, but I think Paula Badosa is capable of frustrating Aryna Sabalenka into some big errors in the altitude of the WTA Finals.

In their one previous match, Paula Badosa did produce the slightly stronger returning and I do think she is capable of winning at least one set, which should mean this could be a close match. She certainly can make hay with the handicap start and I will look for Paula Badosa to play the cleaner match of the two players and keep this one close at the least.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Paula Badosa + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.42 Units (4 Units Staked, + 85.50% Yield)