Euro 2016 Final Pick- Portugal vs France (July 10th)

Euro 2016 Final Pick- Portugal vs France

After a month of football at the European Championship, Portugal and France are the two remaining teams that have a chance of winning Euro 2016. There should be confidence in both camps that they can take the title home and both have plenty of recent experiences of reaching the business end of competitions to fall back upon.

Well that experience will come through some of the players on the field and the staffs off the field as both Portugal and France have plenty of younger faces in their starting elevens. For Portugal this tournament might have come a couple of years too early as they blend in some of their new talent with the older heads like Pepe and Cristiano Ronaldo, while France had been preparing for Euro 2016 prior to the last World Cup.

You do have to feel that France are the better team and plenty of other nations that have already gone home will feel they could have beaten Portugal. However the likes of Iceland, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Poland and Wales have failed to do that and now Portugal get to play in the Final where anything can happen on a given day.

It would still be a big surprise if Portugal are able to win the tournament based on the form they have displayed in France, while the hosts have the stand out result in beating the World Champions Germany in the Semi Final. Wins over Romania, Albania, Republic of Ireland and Iceland were expected, but France were seen as the slight favourites against Germany and had to ride their luck at times in the first half to eventually see them off.

I am hoping for a good Final on Sunday, but France have dominated Portugal in recent times with eight wins from ten games in ninety minutes, and the two exceptions both came in European Championships with France winning both in extra time. Over the last two years these teams have met twice and France came out winners in both friendly games and will go into the Final as the favourites which should not be a surprise to anyone.

Portugal v France Pick: The Euro 2016 Knock Out Stage looked lopsided after the Group Stage had been completed, but the favourites to win the competition have made it through to the Final from the bottom half. Being the hosts meant France were heavily backed prior to the tournament and they looked to have the perfect balance to go all the way.

That expectation will have increased having seen France see off World Champions Germany in the Semi Final on Thursday. That victory might have been a little fortunate as Germany were missing key players and looked the better team right up until the controversial penalty was given to France in first half injury time.

Antoine Griezmann tucked that away and scored another in the second half to help France through, but now the team have to re-focus and not think the title is all but theirs going into the Final. That would be a dangerous mindset because France haven't always convinced defensively and will be facing an opponent in Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo who will believe they can create chances.

The key for Portugal has to be to defend well and try and make it a nervy atmosphere in Paris the longer they can keep France at bay. Portugal have looked fairly compact in their last three games, but this is the biggest attacking threat they have faced so it won't be easy to prevent France from scoring as the latter have managed at least two goals in nine of their last ten games.

If Portugal can 'spoil' the game for the first half, they might feel they can get a few set pieces to try and exploit the France nervousness which will seep down from the stands to the players. That is the best way for Portugal to try and win this game in my opinion and I simply can't see them being able to contain a very good France attack for long enough.

An early goal for France would really up the pressure on Portugal and I think they would then cruise to victory, but early goals have been an issue for the hosts. They have scored five first half goals, but four of those came against Iceland and one was deep into injury time against Germany.

Eventually you have to think France have enough attacking, creative players to exploit spaces they do find and I think they will be too much for Portugal. I would love to see Cristiano Ronaldo add an international title to the host of club titles he has won in his career, and he won't get a better chance than here, but France have looked the superior side through Euro 2016.

I was expecting France to go off at odds on to win this match in ninety minutes and I would not be surprised if that is the case come kick off on Sunday. Backing the hosts to underline their success in Euro 2016 by picking up the trophy on Sunday at odds against looks too good to ignore and I will back France to do that.

MY PICK: France to Win @

Semi Final: 1-1, + 1.60 Units
Quarter Final: 2-2, + 1.10 Units
Second Round: 3-3-2, + 1.80 Units
Group Stage: 16-21, - 5.30 Units

Davis Cup Quarter Finals

This is a very interesting week as the Davis Cup gets underway again, and for the first time the majority of the big names will be playing for their nations as players look to make themselves available for selection for the Olympics next year.

That means the likes of Andy Murray and Roger Federer have returned to the Great Britain and Switzerland teams respectively, while Novak Djokovic will be playing for Serbia. Other big names in action include Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish, although Rafael Nadal pulled out of Spain's tough clash in the USA.


It is no surprise to see Serbia have been installed as the favourites to win the competition as they do have Djokovic, a player who has lost 1 match all season, and his ably backed up by the likes of Victor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic.

Below I will break down the Quarter Final ties, and hopefully will have a pick or two from tomorrow through to Sunday as long as the bookies can pull their fingers out and price up the matches. Also check out my continuing coverage of the MLB and Copa America at http://www.goonersguide.com/


Argentina v Kazakhstan (Clay, Outdoors)
This would be a fairly big mismatch in a football match and it does not look that different on a tennis court. Kazakhstan have made their best impression on this tournament after shocking the Czech Republic, finalists of last season, 3-2 away from home last time out.

Kazakhstan have Andrey Golubev and Mikail Kukushkin representing them in the first 2 Rubbers, but it is hard to expect great things off either, especially on a clay court. Golubev had a solid season last year, but comes into this tie off the back of 14 successive defeats, and losing every match on the main tour on clay courts this season.

Mikhail Kukushkin has also struggled on the main tour this season so this represents a really tough test for the Kazakhs.

Argentina just dont get beaten at home all that often, especially on the clay courts that their opponents will not savour. They will be missing the influential David Nalbandian through injury, but the return of Juan Martin Del Potro from a 2 year absence is most welcome. Juan Monaco has been given the opportunity to play as the other singles player on Day 1, and he is very much at home on the clay courts, holding a win over Andrey Golubev this season.

It seems far too much to expect Kazakhstan to cause a shock here, especially if I consider Del Potro is very much likely to win both his singles matches. There is a good chance this tie is finished before the final day.

Argentina 4-1 Kazakhstan


Sweden v Serbia (Hard, Indoor)
The loss of Robin Soderling looks like meaning the end of the road for Sweden, even more so considering Joachim Johannsson will also be missing. That means the Swedes will be relying on 2 singles players ranked outside of the World 250 if they are to overcome the reigning Champions and favourites.

Serbia have the best player in the World, both in ranking and current form, in their midst and it is unlikely that they will miss this chance to progress.

Victor Troicki is usually not a player to trust wholeheartedly on the main tour, but he loves playing for his courntry and is likely to be given the nod if it is decided that Serbia want to go with the player that has played more tennis lately.

Sweden are home, so they will receive a boost from the crowd, but it seems very unlikely that they can win 3 of the 5 matches against this Serbian team.

Sweden 1-4 Serbia


Germany v France (Clay, Outdoors)
This should really be a one sided contest when it comes to looking at the players each are calling on, but the French are not always there mentally in matches and that could lead to a surprise.

Last season, big things were expected from the French team that contained plenty of talent and depth, but they were surprisingly beaten by the Czech Republic.

Now Guy Forget calls upon the likes of Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet into the team for this tie. All 3 of those players are in the top 20 of the main ATP Rankings- it is likely that Gasquet and Tsonga will be given the nod in the singles in my opinion.

However, Germany are not to be taken lightly as they have some talented players like Phillip Kohlschreiber as well as very awkward customers in the form of Florian Mayer and Phillip Petzschner.

Barring any lapses of concentration, you would have to expect France to get through, but this could be close. Kohlschreiber is a player who particularly enjoys playing for his nation, while the clay courts should at least make this tie a little closer.

However, France did beat Germany 4-1 last season at home, and I expect them to get through again.

Germany 2-3 France


USA v Spain (Hard, Outdoors)
This is likely to be the closest tie to call of the 4 Quarter Finals, but the USA must fancy their chances against a nation that has never won on American soil.

The Americans picked a very very fast hard court to try and give their big power players, the likes of Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick, and edge in the match up... However the biggest edge may have been provided by the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal.

Losing Nadal is a big issue in this tie as the Americans boast a very very good doubles team that effectively provide them an almost guaranteed win in the Doubles Rubber.

The other issue surrounding the loss of Nadal is deciding whether Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez are to be used as the 2nd singles player (I am assuming David Ferrer is almost guaranteed one of the places). Neither Verdasco nor Lopez are guaranteed points and neither player has been in spectacular form this season (I know Lopez reached the Quarters at Wimbledon, but that was taking advantage of a kind draw as I mentioned in my outright preview).

Lopez may get the call after beating Andy Roddick at Wimbledon, and this tie could come down to that Rubber to decide the winner.

Fortunately, this is the tie being televised in the UK and I am definitely looking forward to it.

USA 3-2 Spain


I will hopefully have some picks during these ties this week, but it will all depend on how quickly the bookmakers can get prices out... At the moment only Victor Chandler have prices for the Argentina tie which is starting tomorrow, although there has been  nothing significant to get my attention.

The USA-Spain tie should be very interesting and I think the Americans can pull the surprise in that one. Again, I will have to look at prices before I decide to make any picks on the matches or the tie overall.