Euro 2016 Final Pick- Portugal vs France (July 10th)

Euro 2016 Final Pick- Portugal vs France

After a month of football at the European Championship, Portugal and France are the two remaining teams that have a chance of winning Euro 2016. There should be confidence in both camps that they can take the title home and both have plenty of recent experiences of reaching the business end of competitions to fall back upon.

Well that experience will come through some of the players on the field and the staffs off the field as both Portugal and France have plenty of younger faces in their starting elevens. For Portugal this tournament might have come a couple of years too early as they blend in some of their new talent with the older heads like Pepe and Cristiano Ronaldo, while France had been preparing for Euro 2016 prior to the last World Cup.

You do have to feel that France are the better team and plenty of other nations that have already gone home will feel they could have beaten Portugal. However the likes of Iceland, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Poland and Wales have failed to do that and now Portugal get to play in the Final where anything can happen on a given day.

It would still be a big surprise if Portugal are able to win the tournament based on the form they have displayed in France, while the hosts have the stand out result in beating the World Champions Germany in the Semi Final. Wins over Romania, Albania, Republic of Ireland and Iceland were expected, but France were seen as the slight favourites against Germany and had to ride their luck at times in the first half to eventually see them off.

I am hoping for a good Final on Sunday, but France have dominated Portugal in recent times with eight wins from ten games in ninety minutes, and the two exceptions both came in European Championships with France winning both in extra time. Over the last two years these teams have met twice and France came out winners in both friendly games and will go into the Final as the favourites which should not be a surprise to anyone.

Portugal v France Pick: The Euro 2016 Knock Out Stage looked lopsided after the Group Stage had been completed, but the favourites to win the competition have made it through to the Final from the bottom half. Being the hosts meant France were heavily backed prior to the tournament and they looked to have the perfect balance to go all the way.

That expectation will have increased having seen France see off World Champions Germany in the Semi Final on Thursday. That victory might have been a little fortunate as Germany were missing key players and looked the better team right up until the controversial penalty was given to France in first half injury time.

Antoine Griezmann tucked that away and scored another in the second half to help France through, but now the team have to re-focus and not think the title is all but theirs going into the Final. That would be a dangerous mindset because France haven't always convinced defensively and will be facing an opponent in Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo who will believe they can create chances.

The key for Portugal has to be to defend well and try and make it a nervy atmosphere in Paris the longer they can keep France at bay. Portugal have looked fairly compact in their last three games, but this is the biggest attacking threat they have faced so it won't be easy to prevent France from scoring as the latter have managed at least two goals in nine of their last ten games.

If Portugal can 'spoil' the game for the first half, they might feel they can get a few set pieces to try and exploit the France nervousness which will seep down from the stands to the players. That is the best way for Portugal to try and win this game in my opinion and I simply can't see them being able to contain a very good France attack for long enough.

An early goal for France would really up the pressure on Portugal and I think they would then cruise to victory, but early goals have been an issue for the hosts. They have scored five first half goals, but four of those came against Iceland and one was deep into injury time against Germany.

Eventually you have to think France have enough attacking, creative players to exploit spaces they do find and I think they will be too much for Portugal. I would love to see Cristiano Ronaldo add an international title to the host of club titles he has won in his career, and he won't get a better chance than here, but France have looked the superior side through Euro 2016.

I was expecting France to go off at odds on to win this match in ninety minutes and I would not be surprised if that is the case come kick off on Sunday. Backing the hosts to underline their success in Euro 2016 by picking up the trophy on Sunday at odds against looks too good to ignore and I will back France to do that.

MY PICK: France to Win @

Semi Final: 1-1, + 1.60 Units
Quarter Final: 2-2, + 1.10 Units
Second Round: 3-3-2, + 1.80 Units
Group Stage: 16-21, - 5.30 Units

Euro 2016 Quarter Final Picks (June 30-July 3)

Euro 2016 Quarter Final Picks

That image above sums up the England performance at the Euro 2016 Finals where they return home having won one of four matches and being defeated by Iceland in the Second Round.

How many would have picked England to be beaten by Iceland?

I'd hazard a guess at not many outside of that nation and it is easily the most disappointing defeat England have suffered in my lifetime. I can't argue with the suggestion it is the worst result in a major international tournament for England since beating beaten by the part-timers of the United States in the 1950 World Cup and once again they return home from a major international tournament with plenty more questions than answers.

Roy Hodgson had to go- he simply didn't have the guts to follow through with his convictions in terms of system or personnel and ultimately he has to take the blame for the failure at the World Cup in Brazil and now these European Championships in France. A manager to have the guts to tell the media where to go and not have them dictate the squad or starting eleven is the first thing England need, while it would also be wise of them to perhaps go into a tournament not believing their own hype, but be willing to work hard as a unit to grind their way to positive results.

While the Hodgson departure was inevitable, I think Wayne Rooney should be next in line to accept that international football has now passed him by. I can't imagine he will do that, but he was shoehorned into a spot in the starting eleven because he can no longer lead the line effectively and has lost the pace to be played in one of the wide positions in a front three.

His midfield performance against Iceland was embarrassing and came perhaps a step earlier than even I had called for. I have been very clear that Rooney is not a midfielder because his passing is vastly over-rated, his positioning is poor and he again doesn't really have the pace to challenge the best players in those positions, although those issues were exposed by anything but 'World Class' players.

It might also be time for the likes of Gary Cahill to move on from international football while Joe Hart should be dropped in favour of Jack Butland in time for the World Cup Qualifiers.

Hart is another player I have heavily criticised for being over-rated by the media for some time. How anyone thinks Hart is a better goalkeeper than David De Gea is beyond me and I think any pundit or journalist who makes that suggestion again should be banned from speaking about football again.

In fact he probably won't be Pep Guardiola's chose Number 1 soon enough and Hart might find a more acceptable level lower down the English Premier League and Jack Butland certainly looks a much better goalkeeper.

So who will England turn to to guide them to the next World Cup in Russia? The suggestion has been Arsene Wenger by the media, but I think England would do worse than to pick a manager like Sam Allardyce who has shown he can motivate players to perform above their abilities and is someone who isn't afraid to set his teams up in the manner he wants even if that upsets his fans.

He looks a manager who will believe in what he wants to do and I think it is definitely something England should be looking for in their next manager.

Iceland might not have received the plaudits they deserved, but it has to be said they are fully worthy of their place in the last eight. The stand out tie of the Quarter Finals looks to be the one between Germany and Italy on Saturday, while France might feel they have the best draw as they face Iceland on Sunday.

Portugal and Belgium are favourites to meet in the other Semi Final, but both Poland and Wales will feel they can upset the odds and the next four days will be very intriguing.

Thursday 30th June

Poland v Portugal Pick: You have to think both Poland and Portugal are looking at this as being a big opportunity to get into the Semi Final of Euro 2016 with both likely to be fancying their chances of beating the other. Will that mean we get a tight game between two teams who are scared to make a mistake which will cost them, or will both teams take the game to the other in a bid to move through to what would be a winnable Semi Final regardless of whether it is Wales or Belgium in their way.

There is also a fatigue issue in play which may help contribute to how these teams can play this game. Both Poland and Portugal played 120 minutes in their wins on Saturday and Poland also had to battle through the mental baggage of a penalty shoot out and both physical and mental fatigue could be an issue making it harder to play a conservative style of play.

I have been impressed with Poland in the tournament, although disappointed with the lack of composure in front of goal. This looks a team that will create chances, but they have only scored three goals in their four games despite the opportunities that they have fashioned in all four games.

And I do have to say that Switzerland had Poland on the back foot for the second half and extra time and I am wondering if this team might have left something out on the field in that game. They might create some problems for Portugal, but I also expect the latter to be a lot better than they were for much of the game against Croatia.

Portugal have been a hard team to really get a feel for- they have looked very good at times and created chances that have been wasted, while also being a little hit and miss when it comes to the defensive shape they produce. Against Croatia they looked very solid, but this is a team that somehow conceded three times against Hungary even if those goals conceded were all a touch fortuitous.

The teams have had ample time to rest since their Saturday Second Round clashes which should help restore some energy, but both also had to be at their best mentally which can take its toll. I have a feeling we will see goals in this game as both defences have shown strength but also have allowed chances to be created and both have an attacking figure in Robert Lewandowski and Cristiano Ronaldo who have proven they can score goals at every level.

Out of the two teams, I do think Portugal are the slightly stronger even if they have yet to show that in this tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the Quarter Finals that does produce a few goals, but my gut feeling is that Poland might not have the same energy levels that Portugal could potentially call upon going into this Quarter Final. Portugal also have the better tournament experience and that can't be underestimated at this stage of an event and I will back Cristiano Ronaldo's nation to get through in ninety minutes.


Friday 1st July
Wales v Belgium Pick: The familiarity that Chris Coleman and his Wales team have with a talented Belgium team would have given them an edge in knowing what to expect in this Quarter Final regardless. But the fact that Wales took four points out of six and kept two clean sheets against Belgium during the Euro 2016 Qualifiers has to only make the Welsh team believe they have every chance of moving into the Semi Final here and becoming the most successful national team in their history.

These teams have met four times in the last couple of Qualifying campaigns and the only times Wales were beaten was when they had James Collins sent off early in a game. That was the first of the four matches and the red card after 26 minutes came with the game poised at 0-0 and it took a late goal from Belgium to really wrap up the 0-2 win on that day.

Draws in back to back games before a Gareth Bale goal helped Wales beat Belgium in their home Qualifier should mean Wales go into this Quarter Final without any intimidation factor of a 'golden generation' for Belgium.

That despite Belgium producing a really strong performance in their 4-0 win over Hungary in the Second Round. Coming off a 3-0 win over the Republic of Ireland and a 1-0 win over Sweden has added to the belief that Belgium can win this tournament and turn potential into actual success.

However they will need to be careful as Belgium missed a few opportunities against Hungary while at 1-0 up and their opponents created a few really good chances to score goals. This time they face a team with Gareth Bale in their starting line up who is unlikely to pass up on the chances that Hungary did and my feeling is that this will be different to when they met in the Qualifiers.

Both of those games were tight affairs but the hard work being put in over the last few weeks has come in a short span of time and we have seen some spaces opening up in defence. Belgium certainly will produce chances, but also look a little suspect at the back, while Wales were not rock solid against Northern Ireland and conceded in their first two games against Slovakia and England.

I do think Chris Coleman will want his team to contain Belgium by making them play in front of the defence, but both Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard looked in sparkling form. Wales will offer a threat going forward, but they have to be better than they were in the win over Northern Ireland and I think this is an intriguing Quarter Final that both teams will think they can win.

Picking a winner looks like a far from easy task- I can make a real case for both teams, but my feeling is leaning towards Belgium to finally get the better of Wales after recent failures against them. However I have more of a feeling that we will see goals between these teams considering how well they have performed in attacking spots, but also the chances teams have created against them.

With Bale, Hazard, De Bruyne on the field, I have to think chances will be created and backing at least three goals to be shared out is my overriding feeling.


Saturday 2nd July
Germany v Italy Pick: All of the talk prior to this game is whether Germany can break the curse and finally beat Italy in a tournament match. It is a strange statistic considering how successful Germany have been, but Italy seem to hold the mental cards and will know they have won the last two Semi Final matches these nations have competed in in 2006 and 2012.

If you look a little further, Italy also beat Germany (well West Germany) in the 1970 World Cup Semi Final and the 1982 World Cup Final, but these past results are mainly irrelevant.

The 2012 European Championship Semi Final defeat is the bigger mental obstacle for this German team to overcome. Seven of their starting eleven at this tournament also played in that match, while Thomas Muller came on as a substitute and Germany will have a lot of respect for this Italy team who have exceeded expectations significantly to this point.

Even the 4-1 Germany win in March won't have much of a bearing on the Italian team knowing half of their vaunted Juventus defence were missing. It is that Juventus defence which has helped Italy be so successful at this tournament so far, but that would also be harsh on the speed in which they have attacked teams and caused plenty of problems.

Italy will need to bring in a little more composure in front of goal as they allowed Spain to stick around in the Second Round thanks to some decent goalkeeping from David De Gea. It doesn't get easier when you face Manuel Neuer but Italy will feel they can give this Germany defence more problems than most of the teams they have faced so far in Euro 2016.

I also think this is the best attack that the Italians have faced with Joachim Low ditching the 'false nine' system and using Mario Gomez as his number nine. That allows the midfielders to make more runs off a front man, while also giving the Germany attack another avenue in which to try and break down Italy and Gomez has responded with two goals in two games.

I am really looking forward to this match which looks likely to be one of the best in Euro 2016 between two teams in form. Germany's lack of success against Italy when it matters is a concern, but they are the World Champions and I can see an attacking game with both teams having their chances.

Neither has conceded in Euro 2016 but I believe they are facing the best opponents they have to this point and I think there will be chances. In the 2012 Semi Final the same four Juventus players that have formed the impenetrable defence kept Germany out until the 90th minute while defending a 0-2 lead and I think both teams are going to concede their first goal at the tournament here.

There have been at least three goals in three of the four games in Bordeaux (two in the other) and both Germany and Italy have shown enough in front of goal to think they can match that. My lean is towards Italy finding another way to get past another one of the favourites for the tournament, but I will simply look for this game to produce the goods and the goals.


Sunday 3rd July
France v Iceland Pick: Historically France have been far too strong for Iceland but those holding to history will not be giving the latter the respect they now deserve. Coming out of a weak Group was one thing, but Iceland showed resolve and determination to come from a goal down to beat England in the Second Round, although there is no doubting this is a significant step up.

That is not to say that Iceland won't fancy their chances against a French backline that has looked a little vulnerable at set pieces, an area Iceland will look to exploit with their long throw ins too. Adil Rami is suspended so France are down another centre half which will mean they have to be fully focused if they don't want to be the latest nation to be surprised by 'little' Iceland.

Truth be told, I think anything other than a France win will be a big surprise especially with home advantage and Iceland will look to play their part in this Quarter Final. I would have been interested to see how Iceland would have reacted to going behind as early as they did against England if they hadn't equalised within seconds of the restart, and France look to be rounding into form.

Unlike England, France also have enough creative talent and players capable of producing a moment of magic to turn this game in their favour if they need to unlock this Iceland rearguard. England might not have threatened them, but all three of Iceland's Group opponents created enough chances to win their game against them and France are not likely to be as generous in front of goal as those teams.

You have to respect Iceland for the unity and trust they have in one another and I do think they can create some very awkward moments for France, especially in defence. However I think France will succeed where England failed and set up a huge Semi Final, regardless of who they face, for next Thursday.

After getting in front, I see France perhaps putting this game away late on in a manner they should have done against the Republic of Ireland so I will back them on the Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Portugal @ 2.40 Coral (2 Units)
Wales-Belgium Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Germany-Italy Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)
France - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Quarter Final Update: 2-2, + 1.10 Unit
Second Round Final: 3-3-2, + 1.80 Units
Group Stage Final: 16-21, - 5.30 Units

Euro 2016 Second Round Picks (June 25-27)

Euro 2016 Second Round Picks

The expanded format of the Euro 2016 tournament might not have been to everyone's taste, but I have to say I have been pleasantly surprised with how it has worked. There simply hasn't been a dead rubber in the tournament so far with so many of the teams knowing the importance of Group positions, while only one team were eliminated before the final round of games.

I also think there has been an encouraging trend towards attacking football and most teams have looked to win games rather than settling for draws that might have been the most convenient result.

And there have been some surprises.

The failure of Spain and England to win their Groups means they join the likes of Italy, Germany and France in the bottom half of the draw which has opened the door for a potential surprise Finalist.

Or it has opened the door for a team like Belgium to show why so many have put them down as a potential 'golden generation', but it won't be an easy run to the Final for them either. Croatia, as long as the fans behave, have the talent to beat any team in their half of the draw, while the likes of Poland and Wales may feel they can surprise in the summer of a season in which Leicester City shook up the Premier League.

The most disappointed teams have to be those I have mentioned that failed to win their Group- Spain and England should have been in the so called 'weaker' half of the draw, but failing to win their last game has left them in this spot. Both can be rightly criticised as Spain missed a penalty and then conceded late in a game they could have drawn to win the Group, while Roy Hodgson will have some explaining to do after changing more than half of his starting line up for the final Group game against Slovakia which ended in a goalless draw.

The short straw has obviously been drawn by Spain and Italy who will meet in a huge game on Monday, but England are also left in a situation where they will likely have to beat France and then Germany/Spain/Italy simply to get to the Final. With the pressure on Hodgson to at least reach a Semi Final, perhaps the England manager's office could be looking to be filled by a new occupant in time for the World Cup Qualifiers at the beginning of September.


There are some big Second Round matches to be played in the coming three days as we prepare for the final few days of multiple games being played on the same day. After this we will have one game per day, at best, and the withdrawal symptoms from the missing Premier League may begin to settle in.

Thankfully there isn't so long to wait one this tournament is over though.


Saturday 25th June
Switzerland v Poland Pick: For many of the fans watching Euro 2016, the feeling was that the tournament wouldn't really start until the Knock Out Stages. With only eight of twenty-four teams going out in the Group Stage, that is an understandable reaction but now we have gotten to the time where one mistake can cost a team a place in the Quarter Finals.

The natural inclination is to move towards thinking these games will be a lot more cautious with so much on the line and that can make it tough to pick the way they will go.

Both Switzerland and Poland have been in good form in the tournament so far and both have to think they won't have too many better chances to get into a major international tournament Quarter Final. That can create its own pressure on players and I am not that surprised that the layers are not expecting a lot of goals.

This Stadium in Saint-Etienne has seen six goals scored in the three games here in the Group and one of those was the Slovakia-England goalless draw. The pitch is playing well compared with some of the others in France and I can see both Switzerland and Poland being able to play some very strong football in this one.

Goals have been an issue for both teams in the tournament so far though and both defences have combined for five clean sheets in six games. That is a contrast to the form they were displaying going into Euro 2016, but has to be respected and instead I believe backing Poland to progress is the right call.

Poland have just looked a little better all around than Switzerland and have a player in Robert Lewandowski who looks to be the star turn on the field. There is quality in the squad and I think Poland will have enough to move through in this match, although I will back them on the level ball Asian Handicap which will return stakes if the match does go into extra time.


Wales v Northern Ireland Pick: When England and Wales played each other in the Group, the match very much took on the feel of an English club game and I think this Second Round is going to have a similar feel.

Both Northern Ireland and Wales have to be looking at the other as an ideal Second Round opponent and there will be some familiarity having played in March. Northern Ireland were moments away from winning that friendly played in Cardiff and ending their poor run through recent years against Wales, but they were denied at the death.

You have to consider that neither Aaron Ramsey nor Gareth Bale played in that match while many of those Northern Ireland players that started that game will likely be in the starting eleven in this one. It is hard to ignore the quality that Ramsey and Bale will offer Wales in this one and I think that will give them an edge in a match where both teams will set out in similar ways.

The defensive units being compact is the key for both Wales and Northern Ireland, although the former will look for Bale and Ramsey to use their speed and quality whole Northern Ireland may look to take advantage of set pieces. I really liked the way Northern Ireland played against Ukraine and I don't think they will be overawed in facing Wales so I can see more attacking play than the layers who have again left some tempting numbers when backing goals.

And I don't mean backing at least three goals to be shared out, I mean backing at least two goals to be scored which can be found at 1.70 which does look appealing. All of the Wales Group games would have seen that number hit and Northern Ireland created enough in their win over Ukraine, while also giving up plenty of chances to Poland and Germany, to think that can come in.

Games at the Parc des Princes have not featured a lot of goals which might concern, but I was more tempted in simply backing Wales to win at odds against anyway and won't put off anyone in suggesting there will be at least two goals. I like Wales with the likes of Bale and Ramsey being able to unlock the Northern Ireland defence and I think they can prove to be very dangerous on the counter attack through the ninety minutes.

While I have a lot of respect for the way Northern Ireland have conducted themselves on the field and in the stands, I think those two players mentioned are the best on the field. In the Knock Out Stages of these major international tournaments, those players can come to the fore and I like a moment of magic from one, or both, to beat Northern Ireland and move into the nosebleed area of a Quarter Final here in France.


Croatia v Portugal Pick: You can't have been anything but impressed with the way Croatia came from behind to beat Spain in their final Group game which has put them in the 'weaker' half of the draw to the Final on July 10th. Spain missing a penalty at 1-1 was the key moment in the match, but Croatia showed why so many have tipped them as a potential winner here.

Having won the Group, Croatia would have hoped for better than a clash with Portugal in the Second Round and this does look like one of the better Second Round matches. The latter have put themselves in this spot having failed to win a Group game against limited opposition, but Portugal will feel beating Croatia opens up the path to playing in the Final in two weeks time.

I can imagine Croatia earning plenty of backers and the layers have placed them as the favourite in this match, but Cristiano Ronaldo will be a constant threat in this game. His two goals against Hungary may have seen him come alive in the tournament at just the right time for Portugal who may also feel they can peak in the Knock Out Stage of the Finals.

Personally I am finding it hard to separate these teams and the prospects of extra time and perhaps even penalties does loom large. Both teams have looked a little vulnerable defensively which could make this an entertaining game to watch for the neutrals, although I do think a returning Luka Modric might give Croatia more control and thus the edge.

However I want to go with that vulnerability we have seen in both defences with one clean sheet kept in their Group games by both teams. They have also shown enough in front of goal to suggest both Croatia and Portugal score in this one and I will back that, although I wouldn't put off anyone backing a draw and seeing this as the first game to go into extra time in the tournament.


Sunday 26th June
France v Republic of Ireland Pick: After all the emotions of the win over Italy which has put the Republic of Ireland through to the Second Round we can expect that happiness to have turned to thoughts of revenge. No one will have forgotten the way France beat the Republic of Ireland in the 2010 World Cup Play Off as Thierry Henry deliberately used his hand to help guide the football into his path before setting up William Gallas' equaliser that saw France go through and Ireland go out.

It would be fitting for the Republic of Ireland to get ultimate revenge in this one by beating France in the tournament they are hosting, but it might be a big ask for them. There have been suggestions they will play the same eleven that beat Italy in the final Group Stage, but that might leave them a little too open against a France team that can create chances and score goals.

We have yet to see the best of France, which isn't a bad thing as they would want to peak on July 10th rather than June 10th. There is so much quality in the squad that even when they are struggling they have players that can create a moment of magic and create something out of nothing.

The Republic of Ireland can look to frustrate France in a similar manner that Romania, Albania and Switzerland have all done. However they will know that the former two nations were undone, while the latter escaped thanks to the woodwork and a couple of top saves from the goalkeeper.

I think it will be tough for the Republic of Ireland to pick themselves up again after the emotional win over Italy. They might have 'nothing to lose' in this Second Round match where there is little expectation on their shoulders, but I think Ireland may struggle with their balance if they do fall behind in a similar way they did when Belgium got the better of them in the Group Stage.

After keeping France at a distance for some time, I expect the hosts to find the breakthrough and I expect they will be able to finish off an Ireland team chasing an equaliser down the stretch. Backing the hosts to cover the one goal Asian Handicap looks to be the best way to get onto this game.


Germany v Slovakia Pick: This looks like being another one of the Second Round matches that should capture the imagination as I think Slovakia are anything other than an 'easy' game for Germany. Slovakia simply haven't lost too many games since Qualifying for the Euro 2016 Finals and they have to take some confidence out of their 1-3 win over Germany prior to the tournament.

That was a victory in Germany against a much changed team, but Slovakia will believe they can get forward and cause some problems. Good performances through the Group Stage suggests Slovakia have the quality to surprise and they have a player in Marek Hamsik who is capable of the magical at any given moment.

There are some injuries in the Germany defensive positions which may also make them vulnerable, but I am encouraged by Joachim Low's decision to move away from the 'false nine' system. I have to expect he will stick with Mario Gomez leading the line after seeing Germany create many chances in their 1-0 win over Northern Ireland and the all around performance was encouraging after earlier matches had been a little more inconsistent.

Germany certainly have the quality to find room against this Slovakia team who generally don't defend as well as they did against England. I also think Germany are a lot cleverer in the final third than England when it comes to breaking down teams that will sit back and I think the World Champions will prove a little too good.

Slovakia can play their part, but I can see them in a position to chase an equaliser which sees them caught on the counter as Ukraine were in their 2-0 loss to Germany in the Group Stage. I did consider backing at least three goals to be shared out between the teams at odds against, but instead will stick with Germany to win by a couple of goals and cover the Asian Handicap.


Hungary v Belgium Pick: The top half of the Euro 2016 draw looks an open one and any of the eight teams in that half have to believe they can go all the way to the European Championship Final next month.

There are some surprising nations in the mix, but I think none more so than Hungary who were the absolute outsiders in Group F. Not many would have picked Hungary to get into the Second Round and outside of the team I don't imagine too many picked them to win the Group.

It has given Hungary some confidence to take into the Second Round, although I do wonder if they have just taken advantage of slack play from others in the Group. They were moments away from losing to Iceland and all three goals scored against Portugal had their fortunes about them while Hungary looked significantly second best in that game.

Failing to win a Group they were expected to has helped Belgium join the top half of the draw and they would be ecstatic with the draw. Italy won Group E and have to face Spain, while Belgium finished second and get to play Hungary and I do think they are going to be too good for them on the day.

Belgium have looked solid in their wins over the Republic of Ireland and Sweden and they have been flowing when going forward. There are still some question marks as to whether they score enough goals, but Belgium will have their chances against Hungary and going ahead in this one could see them run away with this Second Round match.

I have been impressed with some of the Hungary play in their first three games, but I think they might have looked better against poorer teams than Belgium. The one quality team they have played is Portugal and Hungary needed two deflections and a special strike from Zoltan Gera to come away with a draw and you can't rely on those bounces of the ball in two games in a row.

There is still some room for improvement in the Belgium play, but I think they might be picking up some momentum and I will back them to score a late goal to put this one away and win by at least two goals.


Monday 27th June
Italy v Spain Pick: There is no doubting what match is considered the best of the Second Round and it is fitting that Italy and Spain will be meeting in the biggest football Stadium in France.

The winner of the match might feel they have some real momentum behind them to win the Euro 2016 tournament although whoever gets through likely has to face Germany in the Quarter Final and France in the Semi Final to simply have a chance to play for all the marbles.

I think it is fairly obvious what we are going to see on Monday- Italy will look for their Juventus backline to defend as they have and set Italy up with a clean sheet while they will look to hit Spain on the counter attack against a vulnerable defence.

Spain will likely dominate possession and hope to pull the Italian defence around and eventually wear them down, while also protecting the defence by keeping the ball for long periods.

I have no doubt that Vicente del Bosque and Antonio Conte are well aware of this too and the game will come down to which of the teams can impose themselves on the other more effectively. They have met five times since the Group Stage of Euro 2012 and three of those games have ended in draws with one another seeing a single goal being enough for Spain to win.

Of course the exception is the Euro 2012 Final but Spain scored twice in the last ten minutes against a chasing and tired Italy side to put a gloss on that scoreline and generally games between these teams are tight.

I think Spain are the more likely winners in regulation time with Alvaro Morata likely to provide them with some inside information on his Juventus team-mates who make up the Italy defence. Morata has scored three times in his last couple of Spanish games and he might be the big threat, but Italy have been strong defensively and this looks like being another tight game between these nations.

It would not surprise me at all if this is one of those Second Round matches that does need extra time and perhaps penalties to separate them. I'm going to have a small interest in the draw at full time in this one, even if the layers aren't taking any chances with the prices.


England v Iceland Pick: England and Iceland have both got through to the Euro 2016 Second Round with different attitudes and there are also different expectations on their shoulders. For England anything less than a place in the Quarter Final would likely be the end of Roy Hodgson as manager and see the team come home with plenty of criticism to face.

For Iceland they have already achieved more than their fans possibly could dream and going out in the Second Round would be no disgrace. That means the team have nothing to lose in this match and they have shown by holding Portugal that Iceland are able to load the box and make life difficult for any team that face.

Breaking down teams has been a problem for this England team, but the selection for the Slovakia game didn't really suit the game plan. The likes of Wayne Rooney and Harry Kane are likely to be restored with both full backs and England will feel they have enough in their locker to break down Iceland.

The latter will defend deep and look to counter, while Iceland can be a threat from set pieces against a vulnerable England backline that will offer some chances if teams go at them.

I think one issue for Iceland is they have put a lot into their Group games with the way they defend and work hard through a game. That has to mean there is a chance for some fatigue in the team, while they haven't really had to chase a game for long periods at any point. That is what England have to make them do and see what Iceland have in the locker when they are forced to come out.

Can England do that? They have created enough chances early on in their last three games to think they can and a more familiar line up might just be what Roy Hodgson needs. I have a lot of respect for Iceland, but it has taken a few last ditch tackles to keep them from conceding more goals than they have and Iceland had conceded a fair few goals in the friendlies leading up to Euro 2016.

England should be too strong and if they can take their chances early on in this Second Round game like they've created through the tournament, I can see England picking off Iceland. This is a much improved Iceland than the one that lost 6-1 to England in June 2004, but I can see a situation where Iceland are chasing the game and England pick them off for an impressive win and likely a Quarter Final against the hosts next Sunday.

MY PICKS: Poland 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wales @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Croatia-Portugal Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
France - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Italy-Spain Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
England - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Second Round Update: 3-3-2, + 1.80 Units
Group Stage Final: 16-21, - 5.30 Units

Euro 2016 Group Stage Picks (June 19-22)

Euro 2016 Group Stage Update

The final round of Group games are going to be played in the next few days and a few teams might already have enough points in the bag to ensure they are going through to the Second Round.

For others winning the Group is an important factor and others still have 'must win' situations going into those games. The idea for a twenty-four team Euro 2016 tournament has certainly worked with only one team, the Ukraine, officially eliminated going into the final round of games.

It should be a good few days before we get into the beginning of the Knock Out Stage and the Second Round next Saturday.

Euro 2016 Group Stage Picks

The biggest disappointment of getting into the final round of Group games is that we have lost the three back to back games in one day until the Second Round begins, but there is still plenty of football to enjoy over the next few days.

Sunday 19th June
Romania v Albania Pick: There is no doubt that at some point in this game that both Romania and Albania are likely to take risks with the draw meaning both teams will be heading home from the Euro 2016 tournament. Out of the two teams, it is Romania who would potentially have enough with two points, although extremely unlikely, and that might be good news for the neutrals.

You can't blame Albania for being a cautious side as they try to bridge the gap to teams with more quality, but the fact is that they have to play a little more expansive in this one if they want to play in the Second Round. There have been things to like about Albania as they have defended doggedly at times, while they did create chances in the loss to Switzerland, but it still looks a big task to beat Romania against whom they have historically struggled.

Like Albania, Romania might feel they should have more points on the board having also been undone by France very late in the game. They haven't defended as strongly as expected, but Romania have shown something going forward even if they are yet to score from anything other than a penalty.

I can see this game perhaps surprising the layers with goals at both ends and it producing at least three goals, but I have more of a feel backing Romania to win the game and move through. There should be more spaces to exploit with Albania likely to have to come out and play a bit more and Romania have shown they can be a dangerous team on the counter attack.

Their win over Northern Ireland in the Qualifiers should set up the team to know how to break down Albania if necessary and I think Romania will be a little too good in this final Group game. 4 points should be enough to move into the Second Round regardless of what happens in the other game in the Group and I will back Romania to earn those three points they need in this game.

I do think Albania will make history with their first goal at a major international tournament, but Romania look a big price at odds against to hand them a third straight Group game loss.


Switzerland v France Pick: Late goals have been a feature of the France Euro 2016 campaign so far with those goals helping turn two points into six and a place in the Second Round. Group A has yet to be won though and France still need a point in this game to win the section, although the talent in the squad suggests they are more than capable of doing that.

They can't expect Switzerland to roll over with a point helping secure a top two spot in the Group, while a little more belief could see them win the Group if they can beat the hosts. Switzerland have to show better composure in front of goal to do that, but they will get chances against this France defence which has looked far from comfortable through this tournament.

But France will also expect to create chances in this one as Switzerland have looked a little susceptible at the back with a high line not being held as well as they would have liked.

It should be entertaining, and I am expecting goals in this one.

However the overriding feeling is that France are going to be good enough to win this one and make it three wins in three games. It looks like Didier Deschamps won't be making wholesale changes to make sure the team wins the Group and the likes of Paul Pogba will be starting this one.

I will back France to earn the three points in this one at just under odds against.


Monday 20th June
Russia v Wales Pick: There is a lot on the line when Russia play Wales in the final game in the Group and the authorities will be hoping that any battles will be contained to the twenty-two players on the pitch rather than the thousands in the stands and Toulouse in general.

Both teams have every chance of making it through to the Second Round without having to worry about the result in the other game in the Group and I expect plenty of attacking football from both. The draw doesn't really do a lot for Russia, even if Wales would likely take that now, and this could be a game where the Wales pace on the counter attack could be crucial in this game.

Gareth Bale has scored in both Group games already and his pace should be a big problem for an ageing Russia defence once they step forward. You do have to think Wales will look to defend in numbers, but Chris Coleman knows his side have already worked very hard on Thursday in the loss to England and Wales have to release some of that pressure on the defence with a more convincing attacking plan.

The counter attack will be crucial for Wales as they would have seen the spaces that Slovakia managed to find against Russia, but there are goals in this Russia team when forced to come forward. I am surprised that Russia are the favourites to win the game though as they have not looked like a good team for much of their first two Group games and only really shone late on when chasing the game.

That might make them more of a threat in this one as Russia know this is a 'must win' game for them and I do think we will see goals in this one. Russia have both scored and conceded in their last 5 games, while 4 of the last 6 Wales games have ended with at least three goals being shared out.

An early goal in this one should certainly liven things up as spaces open up with one of the teams beginning to chase the game. Backing at least three goals to be scored in yet another game in Group B at odds against certainly looks like it can give you a run for your money.


Slovakia v England Pick: The other game in the Group could have a big impact in the way this one is being played, but on the face of things you have to think Slovakia and England can produce an entertaining game. The teams look well matched in styles of play as Slovakia will look to use a pacy counter attack against England's possession and I can see both teams having their chances.

For all of England's good play in the tournament, this is a defence that can look vulnerable and I think Slovakia have the quality to hurt them when they do go at them with pace. However I think Roy Hodgson has finally seen the light and the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Jamie Vardy will give England plenty of pace and, more importantly, confident players in the final third compared with Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane.

I am expecting a good game because England have played well going forwards, but have always looked a little shaky at the back. There is a situation where a 1-0 England win would suit both teams and perhaps stop either chasing anything more, but they won't know exactly what is happening in the other game in the Group until the final few moments.

Before that I expect attacking football as both teams have been better going forward than defending and there is enough to gain from the victory to motivate the players. With the way games in this Group have gone, I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least three goals in this game and at odds against that has to be worth chancing.

My feeling is that England will be too strong on the day, but I will back goals at the prices on offer.


Tuesday 21st June
Northern Ireland v Germany Pick: This is a huge game for Northern Ireland, but they would have appreciated events in the other Groups which have put them in a strong position to Qualify as one of the four best third place finishers. Northern Ireland certainly helped themselves with a 2-0 win over the Ukraine following a slightly fortunate 1-0 defeat to Poland, and they might be in a position where even a narrow loss to Germany does not spell curtains for them.

Depending on what has happened in the Group B games played on Monday, Northern Ireland might already be able to book their place in the Second Round by the time they finish this one. The fact they likely could afford a narrow defeat suggests Michael O'Neill will be happy to play a defensive formation to contain Germany, although he will want the same attacking verve that we saw against Ukraine rather than against Poland.

It is dangerous to think Northern Ireland can afford to sit back and hope to move through to the Second Round, but it does make a lot of sense. Germany have shown they can struggle to break down teams with their own 'false nine' system and Northern Ireland will likely load up with two banks of four to make it difficult for the World Champions.

However you would have to think that Germany will find some chances as Poland created against Northern Ireland and even a 2-0 defeat should not be an issue for Northern Ireland. That looks the most likely result as it should confirm Germany as Group winners, barring Ukraine falling apart against Poland, and I don't think Northern Ireland will commit too many players forward chasing the game as a 3-0 defeat might leave them under pressure.

This might be a rare occasion in Euro 2016 when both teams settle towards the end of the game rather than pushing for late goals. Northern Ireland will be a threat from any set pieces as they showed against Ukraine and almost stole a point against Poland, but I think Germany will hold them out and I will back them to win with a clean sheet.


Ukraine v Poland Pick: The Ukraine have been a difficult opponent for Poland to deal with in recent matches, but I have to wonder what the mentality is of the players who are already out of the Euro 2016 tournament. Of course they should want to finish with a flourish and they did beat Poland twice in the 2014 World Cup Qualifiers, but it has been a long season for many of the players and it can show up with nothing to play for.

On the other hand Ukraine have nothing to lose and they can challenge a Poland team that are still striving to win Group C ahead of Germany. Unlike the Northern Ireland game, Ukraine should have more space to operate when they have the ball going forward, but defensively they have been poor, especially from set pieces.

Poland will be looking to expose those vulnerabilities, but they will also be looking for a little more composure in front of goal. For all their dominance in the Northern Ireland game, Poland did only score one goal in that game and scoring goals might have been the biggest concern pre-tournament even with Robert Lewandowski to call upon.

At least Poland have shown they are perhaps better defensively than many expected, but the onus is on them to push forward in this one. That should lead to some gaps at the back, but I think Poland will be able to cover them up against this Ukraine team and perhaps they can secure their first win over this nation since September 2000.

It might not be enough for Poland to win the Group, but I will look for them to record a narrow victory which secures second place and a Second Round berth. At just under odds against the prices are just tempting enough for the Poland win in this one.


Croatia v Spain Pick: A lot of the focus in the last few days would have gone on the behaviour of the Croatia fans who seem intent on disgracing their Football Association on the biggest stage. It might not be the way that all the Croatian fans want to display their dissatisfaction, as shown in their in-fighting during the draw with the Czech Republic, but there is a fear the fans will get the team thrown out of the Euro 2016 tournament.

For now they will turn to matters on the pitch and trying to secure a top two finish in the Group. Croatia might be missing Luka Modric which is a huge blow as they try to win the possession statistics against Spain and I do think he was one player they couldn't afford to lose.

There is pace in the counter attack which is a threat against Spain, but losing the passing and control of Modric means Spain should be able to dictate the tempo and have much of the ball. Spain don't always look to get behind a defence which may aid this ageing Croatian defence, but Alvaro Morata showed what he can do when Spain do try to hit him in the box.

It looks a tough game which is going to see the teams try to prod their opponents with long spells of pressure and passing. However I think Spain are the team coming in with a lot more focus on the football rather than Croatia who are urging their fans not to ruin their tournament. That slight lack of focus or distraction might prove critical in this final game in the Group and I do like Spain to win this match at odds against.


Czech Republic v Turkey Pick: Everything has become clear to the Czech Republic and Turkey going into the final round of games in the Euro 2016 Group D. They both need the three points if they are going to make it through to the Second Round and the Turkey need for a significant win should make this an entertaining game for the neutrals to watch.

You have to think Turkey are going to show a lot more than they have in losses to Croatia and Spain, and they should have chances against a Czech Republic team they beat in the Qualifiers. The fact that the Czech Republic struggle for clean sheets should help Turkey try and score their first goal in the Euro 2016 Finals and either team scoring will force the other team to come forward.

The draw is no good to any of these nations and that should also mean we see an open game that produces at least three goals.

Historically this fixture has done that with at least three goals scored in 7 of their 9 previous games, although it also has to be remembered that the exceptions have come in the last 3 games. However there is so much on the line for both teams with the three points being imperative that I can see plenty of chances for both during the course of the ninety minutes.

Even a 2-0 lead for either team shouldn't prevent spaces opening up in the final twenty minutes as fatigue and chasing the game sets in. Backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against looks a big price to me and that is what I am expecting in this one.


Wednesday 22nd June
Hungary v Portugal Pick: All eyes in Portugal are going to be on Cristiano Ronaldo as they look for their star player to finally spark in Euro 2016 after two frustrating outings. Missing his penalty against Austria which would have turned a goalless draw into a win has left Portugal in a very difficult spot in the Group, but they do know a win will be enough to perhaps even win the section.

That will depend if they can win by a margin bigger than Iceland, who are no givens to beat Austria, and so Portugal know where they stand going into the game.

To be fair to Portugal, they haven't been all that bad in their first two games and on another night they would have won both of those games. The negativity around Cristiano Ronaldo has to be a concern, but he is the kind of player that can quickly rediscover his form and I am looking for something special from him.

Portugal do have to be careful though.

Hungary have shown they can be an effective defensive unit and they have some talented players in the wide areas that will threaten on the counter attack. My concern for Hungary is that they are in a funny position in the Group and might not know whether they want to defend deep or attack Portugal.

A draw wouldn't be the worst result for Hungary who are officially through to the Second Round even as one of the best third place finishers at worst. The point would likely be enough to top the Group, while an Iceland failure to beat Austria means Hungary are in the top two at worst so perhaps the 'nothing to lose' mentality will aid them.

However Portugal look like a team that could give someone a bit of a going over if they can take some of the chances they have been creating. They might not win too many competitive games easily, but I think Portugal win this one by a couple of goals and find a way to win this Group.


Iceland v Austria Pick: On paper it might not sound the most exciting of games, but there could be plenty of spaces opening up as this match wears on with one of Iceland or Austria likely chasing the game.

For Austria matters couldn't be any simpler as they try to show the rest of Europe why there was so much hype in their squad going into the Euro 2016 Finals. After picking up just a single point from two games, Austria have to show why many expected them to be an attacking force in the Finals and come forward to score the goals to win the game.

A draw will mean an early exit for Austria so they have a very simple permutation if they want to make it through to the Second Round. A win will be enough regardless of what happens in the other Group game although their position in the Group can only be either second or third.

On the other side of the pitch, Iceland might feel a draw is enough to see them through with the way the other Groups have shaped up, but they haven't looked a team that will want to 'park the bus'. Yes they try and defend properly, but Iceland haven't struck me as a team that won't give away chances so it would be a surprise if they risk their place in the Second Round on earning a clean sheet in this one.

It does look a tough match to call, but Iceland might be trying to pick themselves up from two points dropped late in the game against Hungary. That coupled with the fact that I have been expecting a lot more from Austria and am not going to base my judgement on their first two games means I fancy the 'dark horses' to at least reach the Second Round with a victory.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see goals on the day too, but simply backing Austria to win is my call.


Italy v Republic of Ireland Pick: There is little doubt that Antonio Conte will rotate his players, especially now Italy have a big Second Round clash with Spain to come on Monday. He won't want any suspensions and the older players, particularly the Juventus defence and goalkeeper, might need that additional time to recover from two tough games.

Defensively Italy have been excellent as they have used players who are well aware of what is expected of them at the back and they are marshalled perfectly by Gianluigi Buffon. However there could be an issue with new faces in those positions for this final Group game and that is where the Republic of Ireland have to look to take advantage.

The situation is clear for the Irish who have to win this game to help them through to the Second Round. Anything less would see them out of the Euro 2016 Finals in which the other nations from the United Kingdom and Ireland have made it through to the Knock Out Stage.

I am not sure how the Republic of Ireland will deal with the pressure of having to push the tempo and they have to be careful against the counter attacking quality Italy have shown in the tournament. Even a changed forward line will look to exploit any gaps Ireland will leave if they begin to chase the game and that has to be a concern for the Republic of Ireland while preparing for this game.

However the changed Italy team might not be as strong defensively without some of their more recognised back line and the Irish have to use the set pieces to make something happen in this one. I do think the Republic of Ireland will have their chances to beat this Italian team they face as Italy don't score that many goals when playing their full team.

They will give the Republic of Ireland some chances and, while Italy should have players motivated to show they are good enough to start in the coming matches, I am going to back them to avoid defeat in this one.


Sweden v Belgium Pick: This is the end of Zlatan Ibrahimovic's international career so you can imagine the ego he has will mean he won't want to go away quietly. Unfortunately this isn't a vintage Sweden team and the struggles to create too many chances in their first couple of games has to be a concern for a team that needs to win this one.

All the pressure is on Sweden, but they have not really looked good enough in this tournament and now face a Belgium team who would have restored some confidence in their last game. They looked much better in front of goal in the win over the Republic of Ireland and Belgium can bide their time in this one knowing the spaces will open up as Sweden begin to chase the game.

Finishing second in the Group might open up the draw for Belgium thanks to the likes of England and Spain blowing their last games in the Group. The top half in which the Runner Up of Group E will be playing looks much weaker than the bottom half so the motivation for Belgium to play this one properly should make them very dangerous.

The talent level looks to give Belgium a clear edge and being able to play on the counter as Sweden begin to chase the game makes them a worthy favourite. I can't see Belgium losing this one and I think they are going to hand Sweden another defeat and maybe not provide the fairytale ending to his international career that Ibrahimovic would want.

A win here might also give Belgium the momentum to travel very far in this tournament, although they could face a Second Round clash with Portugal to open the draw. For now they can concentrate on winning this game and I will back Belgium to do that.

MY PICKS: Romania @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
France @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Russia-Wales Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Slovakia-England Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Germany Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Poland @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Spain @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Czech Republic-Turkey Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Austria @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belgium @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Group Stage Match Day 3 Update: 5-7, - 3.92 Units
Group Stage Match Day 2 Final: 7-5, + 6.82 Units
Group Stage Match Day 1 Final: 4-8, - 8.20 Units