NFL Week 14 Picks 2022 (December 8-12)

I should be adding Week 14 Picks to this thread all through the next couple of days, but wanted to get the Thursday Night Football selection out there.

Ups and downs through an eighteen week regular season have to be accepted, but this is the time to build some momentum towards the PlayOff Picks coming up in January as the NFL begins the long slog towards the Super Bowl.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The expanded PlayOffs that the NFL have begun using last season may have kept alive the hopes of the Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) to force their way into the top seven of the Conference. They edged into the post-season in Week 18 last season, but a miserable start to this season under new Head Coach Josh McDaniels had given most the feeling that the Raiders were going to miss out in 2022.

Back to back Overtime wins and then another victory over a Divisional rival have put some momentum behind Las Vegas, even if it comes too late to really challenge the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. They are now 2 games behind the New York Jets for the final PlayOff spot on offer to the AFC and the Raiders will feel they could get back into the post-season if they can finish up with nine wins.

When the schedule was released back in April, the Las Vegas fans will have been thinking about this short journey to the City of Angels and wondering how tough it would be. They would be facing the Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams (3-9), but this has been a miserable defence to the crown with injuries piling up and forcing the Rams to begin thinking about next season.

Six losses in a row have ended the Rams hopes of returning to the post-season, while they are going into this Week 14 Thursday Night Football encounter without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kuup and Aaron Donald, three prominent members of the team that won the Super Bowl in this Stadium in February.

Baker Mayfield was released by the Carolina Panthers and has been picked up by the Los Angeles Rams, although it feels like a long shot to see him suit up for this one. John Wolford has been banged up at Quarter Back though and has not practiced yet so there is a feeling that the Rams could throw Mayfield in quicker than they would like, especially as they would have some time to get him up to speed for any Week 15 outing they want from him.

Bryce Perkins is the other Quarter Back on the roster and no matter which way you cut it, this does not feel like an ideal short week for the Rams. It is never easy regardless, but the injury problems and playing off an emotional effort in coming up short against Divisional rivals Seattle Seahawks makes this much tougher than usual.

Regardless of who is going be taking place under Center, the Rams have to try and impose the run game on the Raiders Defensive Line if they are going to have a real chance of winning this game. In recent weeks the Offensive Line has gotten something going when it comes to run blocking, but it feels like they are facing Las Vegas at the wrong time with the Raiders really stepping up their intensity up front.

I do think the Rams will have some successes while the game is close, but it is unlikely to be consistent and the Running Backs may actually be bigger threats in the passing game. That has something to do with the very strong pass rush that the Raiders have been generating in recent games, one that should get the better of the Los Angeles Offensive Line and see Wolford/Perkins/Mayfield under intense pressure when it comes to throwing down the field.

Losing Cooper Kuup is obviously a massive blow to the passing attack and it could be a chance for the Raiders to improve their Interception rate against inaccurate passers. There are holes in the Las Vegas Secondary, but it is hard to imagine this Los Angeles Rams Offense being able to exploit those on a consistent basis and it could be a tough day for the home supporters.

There will also be plenty of black and silver in the stands and that should only aid Derek Carr and the Raiders Offensive unit, which could be bolstered by a returning Darren Waller in Week 14. The Tight End has been a big miss, although Carr and company have kept the good times rolling thanks to Josh Jacobs at Running Back and Davante Adams at Wide Receiver.

Los Angeles' Defensive Line have been stubborn against the run in recent games, but this Raiders Offensive Line may be blocking as well as any unit in the NFL right now. Josh Jacobs is running angry and it is almost impossible to believe that the Rams, who invested as much as they did on Sunday, can have the intensity to clamp down on the run completely.

Any move up front is big for Derek Carr and his time to make throws down the field from Quarter Back- he is also protected by a Line that is just as happy pancaking pass rushers as run blocking and that should mean Carr is able to locate like the likes of Adams, Waller and Mack Hollins down the field.

Turnovers are likely to be the biggest worry for Derek Carr who will be throwing against a Secondary that has allowed some big numbers in recent losses and I do like the Raiders to win and cover on the road.

The Rams should be motivated about being a home underdog, but that was the situation in Week 13 and I do think they have invested so much into trying to spoil the season for a Divisional rival that a non-Conference game may not be on the same radar. And while the Raiders are coming in off a Divisional win of their own, they have so much more to play for if they can keep winning and that focus and mindset can be huge factors in the NFL.

I also cannot ignore the size of the spread, but the Las Vegas Raiders should have enough to win this one by a Touchdown as late turnovers see them pull clear.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The return of Deshaun Watson may not have gone completely to plan for the Cleveland Browns (5-7), but the win over his former team, the Houston Texans, has kept alive faint PlayOff hopes. Those hopes could be much brighter at the end of Week 14 if the Browns can continue their dominance of Divisional rivals the Cincinnati Bengals (8-4), although the Super Bowl losers from the end of the 2021 season look like a team on a mission to go one better this time around.

Four wins in a row have gotten the Bengals involved in the AFC North Divisional race, but it is even more impressive when you think they have beaten AFC West leaders Kansas City and AFC South leaders Tennessee during that time. With Lamar Jackson banged up, the Bengals have to be considered favourites to win the AFC North at this time, while they are only a game out of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, which could be crucial when determining the Super Bowl representative next month.

Joe Burrow has been as good as expected since moving from College Football into the professional game, but there is still a couple of things missing from the CV. Of course the biggest is the lack of a Super Bowl ring, but not many will bet against him adding that to the National Championship won in College, while the more surprising check list that has yet to be marked off is a win over the Cleveland Browns.

The Bengals are significant favourites to do that in Week 14, but the schedule spot is not ideal off those big wins over the Titans and Chiefs. Cincinnati had to really dig deep to win those games, while they are now facing a Cleveland team with a Quarter Back who will feel he has shaken off some of the match rustiness and can have a much bigger performance all around.

Deshaun Watson is not going to reach the level of his last season in Houston, but the Browns may not need him to do that in this match up, which has been in their favour over the last couple of years. For starters the biggest edge the Browns have seemingly had over the Bengals is the strong ability to run the ball and it would almost be a surprise if that is not the case in Week 14 of the 2022 season.

When they met a few weeks ago, Cleveland piled up 172 yards on the ground and it does feel like they can at least get Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt established in this one too. In recent games the Bengals Defensive Line have been a little tougher, but this Cleveland Offensive Line is a confident one that can bully teams up front and I think they will feel the strength of the Quarter Back behind Center will just give opponents a bit more pause for thought.

In saying that, the Bengals cannot have been that impressed with Watson last week and they may actually dare the former Texan to show he still has the ability to make huge plays in the NFL. A struggle against the Houston Secondary is a slight concern, but I do think Deshaun Watson will be a little bit more aware of the strengths of the Receivers in Week 14 and could also have David Njoku back at Tight End to bolster the options.

Cleveland should be able to move the ball with some consistency, but it is also hard to expect Joe Burrow to continue to struggle against this Divisional rival. The Bengals did not run the ball at all well in the loss to the Browns a few weeks ago, but they should have Joe Mixon back this week as they try and do a little better.

Even with the quality Running Back behind Burrow, the Bengals Offensive Line have not been at their best opening holes up front and it may be tough to do that against this Browns Defensive Line, despite the inconsistent performances from Cleveland. In recent games they have largely shut down Tampa Bay and Houston on the ground, but the Buffalo Bills were able to really ramp up the pressure with the run, although Joe Burrow is perhaps not the same threat as Josh Allen with the ball tucked under his arm.

One difference from the first game though is that the Bengals have been giving Joe Burrow more time in the pocket in recent starts and that may be the case here. For some reason the Cleveland pass rush has been failing to get to the Quarter Back, perhaps due to the struggles to stop the run, while the absence of Ja'Marr Chase in the first meeting was clearly a blow for the Bengals.

Cleveland do have a Secondary that has been playing well, but this Bengals team have a number of Receivers who can step up and I do think stopping them completely is tough for any team. However, the Browns have had plenty of success against Joe Burrow, including holding him under 200 passing yards on Halloween, and this could be enough for the Browns to keep this one close.

The Bengals will be focused as they finally look to crack the Cleveland conundrum, but there is no doubting how much they have invested to beat the Titans and Chiefs and this feels like a 'let down' spot for the team. I do think it is hard to ignore the way these teams have performed at the betting window in recent times with the Browns struggling for covers and Cincinnati proving they are a potentially great team, but the underdog is 6-0 against the spread in the last six between these rivals.

Add in the fact that Cleveland are 4-2 against the spread when given less than 7 points as the underdog this season and I will take the Browns with a healthy start.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Three losses in five games has slowed the surprising progress that was being made by the New York Jets (7-5), but the decision to move from Zach Wilson to Mike White at Quarter Back still looks the right one despite the loss last week. It was poor play from Wilson which saw the Jets lose two of three games, but White has given them. chance to back up the Defensive effort which has propelled the Jets all season.

If the PlayOffs were to begin this week, the New York Jets would surprisingly have earned the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. However, there are still five weeks of the regular season to get through and the New York Jets have to find a way to win at least three of their remaining games to have a realistic shot of earning a post-season berth for the first time since 2010.

It has already been seven years since the New York Jets won more than seven games in a single season and so a lot of credit has to be given to Head Coach Robert Saleh who finished 4-13 in his first season with the team in 2021. The turnaround has been down to the Defensive side of the ball, which is where Saleh has made his reputation in the NFL, and I do think there will be a confidence that they can reach the post-season when you think of how the schedule breaks down in their final five games.

This looks the toughest test left with a trip to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills (9-3) who are coming in off a mini-bye having beaten the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 13. Sunday proved to be an important day for the Bills as they have pulled into the lead for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC too, but Sean McDermott and his staff will know they have yet to really take control of the Division, let alone the Conference.

Two of the three Buffalo defeats in 2022 have been against Divisional rivals and they still have three more games to play against those rivals. Back to back home games against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins should keep the Bills plenty focused, especially as they have lost the first meeting with both of those teams, and I think that will see Buffalo produce a big performance in Week 14.

Illness and injury have been concerns for Buffalo in the last couple of weeks, while a storm meant displacing them from home for a game too. However, through it all, the Bills have kept rolling and they will feel they can be much more productive Offensively than they were in the 20-17 loss to the Jets in early November.

Despite being a big favourite on the road, Josh Allen struggled at Quarter Back in that defeat and threw 2 Interceptions that proved to be costly. This will be another test for Allen, but he should be able to have some success running the ball, while the Bills have made a positive decision to give James Cook more of an opportunity at Running Back and he has certainly paired up well with Devin Singletary to offer the Bills a genuine punch on the ground.

I expect they can move the ball effectively against this Jets Defensive Line, while that also should be crucial in slowing down the New York pass rush. Josh Allen will be challenged by this Jets Secondary, but he has a number of Receivers who can step up outside of Stefon Diggs and I also expect the Bills to utilise James Cook when he leaks out of the backfield.

Even with the motivation of wanting to prove something, I do think the Buffalo Offensive unit could become a little bogged down at times with the way the Jets match up against them. New York have shown they can at least limit the scoring opportunities and that will give them a chance to cover with the huge amount of points being given to them, and perhaps even win outright.

Winning outright on the road is not going to be easy, but Mike White has shown he can offer the Jets plenty from the Quarter Back position. Zach Wilson did not play badly in the win over the Bills in November, but he only had 154 passing yards on the day and White has produced back to back days over 300 passing yards since being moved into the starting spot.

Running the ball was a key in the upset of the Bills last month as the Jets won the time of possession and just made things that much more comfortable for the Quarter Back. The game plan is likely to be very similar in Week 14, although the Bills Defensive Line have held teams to just 3.5 yards per carry over their last three games and may be daring the Jets to beat them through the air.

If they still had Von Miller, the Bills may have felt more comfortable trying this method, but the loss of their big time pass rusher is a huge blow to this team. In recent games the pass rush has not been nearly as effective as the Bills would have liked and Mike White has shown he can make the plays down the field to his Receivers.

Garrett Wilson had 92 yards Receiving in the first meeting with Buffalo, but had not been on the same page as Zach Wilson for many of the games outside of that one. However, he has been much more involved since White took over at Quarter Back and Wilson has had 95 yards and 162 yards in the last two games and I think he could do some damage in the Buffalo Secondary in this one as well.

I think that will see the New York Jets having success moving the ball too and they should be able to keep this one close, even against an angry, motivated and rested Buffalo Bills team.

Buffalo have been very good at home and they have a strong record against the AFC East when it comes to the spread over the last couple of seasons, although the Bills are 1-2 against the spread in those games this season. They still have to be respected as a team that can blow out any opponent very quickly, but this is a lot of points to be giving to a well Coached Jets team that have covered in their last four games following a straight up loss.

There is every chance the Bills could begin to turn their attention to the Miami Dolphins and the Saturday Week 15 outing against their closest rivals in the Division, and that allows an opportunity for a backdoor cover at the worst with this spread line.

Sean McDermott is an excellent Head Coach and one who has been very good at covering double digit spreads, but his Bills team are just 3-3 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season. As long as the Jets Defensive unit can do what they are capable of, I think the Jets may only need between 17-20 points to cover even in a losing effort and I will back New York with the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Pick: When you trade away a player in his prime who then comes back to wreak havoc on your team the very next time you face him, it cannot be a big surprise that there are going to be serious discussions about why a General Manager would do that. Those discussions would have taken place with AFC South leaders the Tennessee Titans (7-5) having been crushed by AJ Brown in Week 13 and it is clear that Jon Robinson was considered responsible.

Head Coach Mike Vrabel had made it clear only two weeks before the Brown trade was executed that he would not sanction any trade while he was leading the Tennessee Titans. The only real surprise is that it has taken the Titans this many months to make a change in the General Manager office and even more surprising is that they would not have waited two months.

Upheaval aside, the Tennessee Titans are comfortably clear in the weak AFC South, while Vrabel has made it clear that the focus is to finish strong and try and improve the Seeding. They do have to face three games against Divisional rivals, but the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) have not looked capable of rocking the boat for the Titans and the two games against this opponent have to be won if Tennessee are going to turn things around.

Tennessee have lost three of their last five games, but they are expected to bounce back in this one. Treylon Burks is expected to miss out, but the main focus for Mike Vrabel and the Titans is to get back to doing what they do best and that is running the ball with Derrick Henry.

Recent outings have seen teams clamping down on King Henry, but the Running Back himself has admitted he needs to be better than he has been. He needs to be helped by the Tennessee Offensive Line who have only helped the team produced 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games, but I do think the Jaguars Defensive Line is one that they can get on top of.

It will help the Titans overall if they can find a way to make teams respect the pass- Ryan Tannehill has not been playing badly and the Jaguars have some big holes in the Secondary, but it comes back to the trade to send AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles. With Burks expected to miss out, the Titans will have to rely on Receivers to make plays for them that perhaps don't have the consistency required when it comes to the post-season and I do think there are limitations to this time.

Those are not expected to be exposed by the Jaguars though and I think this is a very good chance for the Titans to bounce back Offensively and at least keep the chains moving.

Moving the chains could be a much tougher ask of the Jaguars who look to be trending towards having to play this game without Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence. They do have a capable backup in CJ Beathard, although I do think Beathard wishes he had stayed in San Francisco where he would have been the starter going into the PlayOffs.

The problem that Beathard will face in this game is that the Jaguars are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball against the Titans Defensive Line and that means having to throw from third and long behind a vulnerable Offensive Line. Short passes to Travis Etienne may be a way to at least try and stay in front of the chains, while the Titans pass rush has not been as effective of late as they have been for much of the season, but it will still be a test for CJ Beathard having not started a game in 2022.

Tennessee have a Secondary which can be susceptible to the big play though and so Beathard may be able to help the Jaguars have some success. Ultimately, I still think the unbalanced Offensive game plan could come back to haunt the road team who were bludgeoned at the Detroit Lions last week.

As one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL, Mike Vrabel's Tennessee team usually bounce back from a defeat. They have been even stronger when playing on back to back straight up losses with his Titans team going 7-1-1 against the spread in that spot and I do think Tennessee will try and cool the headlines about the firing of Jon Robinson by winning this one well.

The Titans have strong recent trends, while the Jaguars are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four road games and who are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games in Tennessee. I would have preferred this spread to be a point lower, but I still think the Titans win by around a Touchdown mark and I will back them to cover here.

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The immediate reaction to a spread of the size involved in this Week 14 game is that the favourite doesn't 'need' to beat the underdog as convincingly as the oddsmakers think they should. You also add in the backdoor cover ability with such a number and it makes it hard to back any NFL team to win by more than three scores.

However, the oddsmakers are normally on the money and you can understand why they have asked the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) to lay this many points against the Houston Texans (1-10-1).

There is enough leeway for the Texans to win at least one more game before the end of the season and still end up with the Number 1 Pick in the Draft and that is going to be important to the rebuild in Houston. They are in desperate need of a functional Quarter Back having tried a number of options in this position ever since Deshaun Watson insisted he wanted to leave.

This week Davis Mills is back behind Center after the Texans decision to give Kyle Allen the starts backfired badly. I don't really blame Allen for that and Mills is not much of an upgrade anyway, but big losses at the Miami Dolphins and at home in their 'revenge' game against the aforementioned Watson and his new team the Cleveland Browns has meant another change being made at the most vital position on the team.

Previously you would have imagined that the Texans would have simply handed the ball off to Dameon Pierce and other Running Backs in a bid to control the clock against this very strong Cowboys Defensive unit. For much of the season it has been possible to run the ball against Dallas and try and stay in games against them, but recent outings have really seen the Cowboys make a big effort to stop the run and they have been successful doing that.

In the wins over the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts, the Dallas Defensive Line have limited the likes of Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor so facing Pierce and company will not be a challenge they shy away from. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 90 yards per game on the ground in those wins and doing that against the Texans will make it very difficult for the road team to have any Offensive success.

Davis Mills would be forced to throw against a very good Secondary without his top Receiver, while the Offensive Line is not likely to stand up against the pressure the Cowboys have been bringing with their pass rush. That does not bode well for scoring points and the Texans may actually need their own Defense to step up and keep them in this game, while perhaps earning a turnover or two that can offer short fields to the Offensive unit.

I have to respect the fact that the Houston Defensive Line have been playing harder of late, but clamping down on the Ezekiel Elliot-Tony Pollard one-two punch out of the backfield feels like a tall order. The Dallas Offensive Line is going to be bolstered by a returning Tyron Smith this week and I think they are going to be able to run the ball very effectively against the Texans.

Running the ball does shorten the game and make it that much more difficult to cover such a number as this one, but it should give Dak Prescott an opportunity to make some big throws down the field too. The reality is also that it is very difficult to imagine the Texans creating too many stops against this Cowboys team and their own Offensive unit is likely going to have a turnover or two that sees them on the wrong side of a very wide margin of defeat.

You have to give the Houston Texans some credit in the sense that only one defeat has come by more than 17 points this season, but this feels a horrible match up for them. If the Cowboys had a Divisional game on deck, I could perhaps have suggested there may be a distraction, but they are playing hard to chase down the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East and I think Dallas will be far too strong on the day.

I can't say enough about how big this spread is, but the Houston Texans are 0-1 against the spread when given more than 13.5 points as the road underdog this season and they may have to accept another blow out defeat against an in-State rival.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: There are a couple of teams in the NFL who look far weaker than their overall record may suggest and one of those has to be the New York Giants (7-4-1). They played out a tie with the Washington Commanders in Week 13, but the Giants have regularly found themselves on the wrong side of the yardage battle and they are still in for a huge fight to make the PlayOffs despite the record.

One of the reasons for that is that New York have a very difficult schedule left to negotiate- they have to face the Commanders again, have a road game at the Minnesota Vikings and, perhaps most importantly, have to face the Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) twice.

With a Number 1 Seed coming up over the horizon, the Eagles are not likely to take their foot off the gas at this stage of the season and they will be heading into this Week 14 Divisional game with a lot more confidence than the Giants. While the home team are banged up, the Eagles look pretty settled and the additions they have made in recent weeks have strengthened them even more.

Saquon Barkley is questionable for this Week 14 game and that would be a massive blow for the New York Giants who are going to want to run the ball if only to keep the Philadelphia Offensive unit cooling down on the sidelines. It has been much tougher to do that consistently against the Eagles Defensive Line in recent games and it could become a very long day in the office for Daniel Jones if the Giants fall a couple of scores behind this NFC East rival.

Daniel Jones is a mobile Quarter Back and can make plays with his legs, but trying to throw against the Eagles from behind the chains is an incredibly difficult challenge. Even more so when you think of the injuries to the New York Wide Receivers, which has been an issue all year.

A fierce pass rush will feel they can get to Jones if he spends any time in the pocket and the Philadelphia Secondary are continuing to play at a high level, which only adds to the expected stresses on the New York Offense.

It should be noted that the Philadelphia Eagles have not been as dominant on the road as they have at home and that despite their sole loss being in front of their own fans. Wins on the road have come by much narrower margins, including a one point win at the Indianapolis Colts in their most recent outing on the road, and that is some concern when it comes to judging this spread.

The game plan should be pretty comfortable for the Philadelphia Eagles on the Offensive side of the ball and that will begin with running the ball right at the Giants Defensive Line. Miles Sanders is having a solid season at Running Back, but he is well backed up with the options the Eagles have to spot him and Jalen Hurts is also more than capable of picking up huge chunks of yards on the ground.

They should be able to stay in front of the chains throughout this game and the Eagles will be motivated to show how far they have come since they last visited this Stadium in November 2021 when losing and scoring just seven points. Establishing the run will just open things up for Jalen Hurts and the passing game that is still operating strongly even without Dallas Goedhart in the line up.

New York are almost better against the pass than the run by default, but I do think the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will win their battles on the outside and give the Eagles the Offensive balance that will make it very difficult for the Giants to contain.

As I have mentioned, the Eagles are not easy to trust to cover considering they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games. They win games, but rarely blow teams away and the Giants have a team that have found a way to stay in games so a backdoor cover cannot be ruled out for the hosts.

However, I do think the Eagles should be highly motivated in this NFC East rivalry game and they do have a team that are capable of winning and winning well.

The Eagles do have a poor 2-5 record against the spread in their last seven games against the New York Giants, but this Philadelphia team looks much stronger than their Divisional rivals and I think they show that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Injuries are always going to be a massive factor in the NFL, but the San Francisco 49ers (8-4) have to be incredibly frustrated to lose both their starting and backup Quarter Back. Jimmy Garoppolo could potentially return in the PlayOffs, assuming the 49ers get there, but for now the keys to the Offensive unit will be turned over to 'Mr Irrelevant' Brock Purdy.

The rookie didn't play badly when coming into the team in Week 13, but he is ultimately a Seventh Round rookie and that will have an impact on the 49ers. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has been firmly behind Brock Purdy in the pressers in preparing for this game, and has suggested that the 49ers will not need to change their approach with Purdy behind Center rather than Garoppolo.

The headlines write themselves in Week 14 as the rookie Quarter Back in San Francisco prepares to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) and arguably the greatest Quarter Back of all time in Tom Brady. Of course the two do not actually play against each other, but all of the talk with revolve around the two players at the most important position in team sports.

Tom Brady showed off some of the old magic in helping the Buccaneers rally for a big win on Monday Night Football, but there is no doubt that Tampa Bay look short of the very best teams in the NFC. They are a game and a half clear in the NFC South, but winning the Division is anything but secured and the Buccaneers are still lacking the consistency that helped them win the Super Bowl a couple of seasons ago.

One of the big problems for the Buccaneers has been the injuries on the Offensive Line that began in pre-season. It has meant the team have not been able to run the ball anywhere near as effectively as they would have liked and that has only increased the pressure on Tom Brady at Quarter Back.

Effectively this game is going to come down to Brady and the passing game as far as the Buccaneers are concerned from an Offensive point of view. There have been too many moments where big plays have been missed by Brady or his Receivers have dropped the passes, but they can ill-afford to be wasteful in this game if they are going to earn the upset on the road.

While it can be hard to believe they are going to get things right completely in Week 14, I do think the Buccaneers can have some passing successes. As strong as the 49ers are Defensively, they have allowed recent opponents to find some holes in the Secondary and Tom Brady and company have to believe they can produce something positive.

They may actually believe that they match up pretty well with the 49ers on the other side of the ball, especially with Brock Purdy playing at Quarter Back. In recent games the return of some key players on the Defensive Line have made the Buccaneers much more stout against the run and stopping the 49ers from getting in front of the chains would be a huge advantage for Tampa Bay.

Of course, you cannot underestimate Kyle Shanahan being able to scheme up something in place of a traditional run game by getting the ball into the hands of his skill players with short passes from the Quarter Back. Christian McCaffrey is the obvious threat, but Deebo Samuel is another who could benefit and at least keep Purdy and the Offensive unit in front of the chains.

Brock Purdy's test could be whenever he is in third and long spots as he will be dealing with the Buccaneers pass rush and I expect some exotic looks to be given to the rookie. This is a Defensive unit that has kept Tampa Bay in games when the Offense has been struggling and I think the Buccaneers will believe they can slow down the run and make Brock Purdy beat them through the air.

The young Quarter Back played well against the Miami Dolphins last week, but this time the Buccaneers will have been preparing all week to face Brock Purdy and that can make the difference for another team from Florida to have more success.

With that in mind, I can't have Tom Brady and the Buccaneers as an underdog that could cover even if they lose the game.

There are plenty of trends that favour the 49ers, including the long trip being made by Tampa Bay on a short week, but the Buccaneers as an underdog for the first time this season is appealing. The Defensive unit can at least contain the San Francisco Offense to give Brady and the Buccaneers the chance of a backdoor cover at the worst and I do think Tampa Bay will play with a considerable effort knowing they have been set as the underdog against a third string Quarter Back.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: It is never ideal to spend a week away from home and not in the midst of a difficult scheduling period when set to play three road games in succession. Becoming a good team also means being picked for National Television coverage and that is something the Miami Dolphins (8-4) have not been asked to do for a long time, but now they have to deal with also being flexed into a Sunday Night Football slot before having to take on Divisional leaders the Buffalo Bills on Saturday in another single game position.

Head Coach Mike McDaniel is not bemoaning the spot and instead asking his players to embrace it- ultimately he has arrived in Miami with the ambition of the team being strong enough to play Prime Time slots and the players have to get on board with that.

A loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 is a blow, but not a fatal one to where the Miami Dolphins want to go this season and they are still in control of their own destiny. At this point, missing the PlayOffs would be a huge disappointment, but the Dolphins are aiming higher and they will win the AFC East if they can win out with five games left.

Of course that means not overlooking the Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) who are firmly in the Wild Card mix in the AFC and who are also looking to recover from a road loss. The defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders means the Chargers have lost three of their last four games and they are certainly struggling to maximise Justin Herbert's ability at Quarter Back.

It isn't the Coaching fault in reality, but injuries have hurt the Chargers on both sides of the ball and it has made it very difficult for Los Angeles to find any sort of consistency through the season. The record underlines the point, but the Chargers will feel their remaining five games gives them every chance to win at least four and reaching ten wins should be enough for a Wild Card place.

Still, any team that has been losing as much as the Chargers have been will have some questions to answer and they will be hoping the week the Miami Dolphins have spent on the West Coast has been a distraction rather than a help for the road team. In recent games it has felt like all the pressure has been on Justin Herbert to pass the Chargers to victory and they are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has really begun to clamp down on the run this week.

A banged up Los Angeles Offensive Line have also struggled to create the holes for Austin Ekeler at Running Back and I do think Herbert will be called upon.

He does have Keenan Allen back at Wide Receiver, but Ekeler may be the more important player considering the problems Justin Herbert has in getting enough time to throw. His Offensive Line are missing key players and are acting like something of a revolving door in recent games as Justin Herbert continues to be hit, and hit hard, and time runs out pretty quickly for him.

Bradley Chubb's arrival in Miami has sparked a fierce pass rush and I do think they will get to Justin Herbert any time they have the Quarter Back behind the chains. This will stall drives or force Field Goals and that is not a good thing against one of the most improved Offensive units in the NFL.

Miami have been a real revelation on the other side of the ball thanks to the addition of Tyreek Hill and the Mike McDaniel mind at Head Coach. This has rubbed off on Tua Tagovailoa, although the Quarter Back was a little banged up last week and will be needed closer to full health for the Dolphins to get back to winning ways.

I wasn't convinced about Tagovailoa, but he has made a fan out of a doubter and I do think he is going to find huge holes to exploit in this one. Last week he missed some throws, perhaps down to the injury he picked up, but I do think the Quarter Back will look closer to his old self in this one and the Chargers Secondary is one that will struggle to hold onto Hill and Jayden Waddle.

Tua Tagovailoa can only be helped by the Running Backs- the arrival of Jeff Wilson has been huge for the Dolphins- and the Miami Offensive Line are expected to open things up against this porous Chargers Defensive Line. Moving in front of the chains opens the play-action down the field and it is hard to imagine the Chargers containing Miami barring Tagovailoa being way under 100%.

The Quarter Back is not expected to be faced with much pressure from the pass rush from the Chargers and that should only make things that much more comfortable for Tagovailoa.

The game at the Buffalo Bills next Saturday is a potential distraction, but the loss in Week 13 should have sharpened the Miami focus.

Miami have not always been at their best bouncing back from a loss and they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, but the Chargers are struggling.

In a shoot out, I think the Dolphins prevail with their superior balance on both sides of the ball and I think they can be backed to cover.

MY PICKS: Las Vegas Raiders - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Jets + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 14 Picks 2016 (December 8-12)

There are just four weeks left of the regular season and we have our first Play Off team of the season as the Dallas Cowboys were confirmed as a participant in the post-season. They are now a couple of games away from wrapping up the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will make them a favourite to reach the Super Bowl, although the Play Offs are like a new season and there is plenty of football to be played before we anoint any team as the favourite.

We could see more teams book their place for football in January with the New England Patriots on the brink of confirming their place- a win for the Patriots and loss for the Miami Dolphins would do that for them. The Oakland Raiders are not that far from clinching at least a Wild Card spot, but a win on Thursday Night Football will put them on the brink of securing the AFC West Division although a loss would give Kansas City the edge in the Division race.

The Seattle Seahawks are another who clinch with a win and their nearest chasers, the Arizona Cardinals, losing, although both New England and Seattle can't clinch their Divisions this weekend unless Miami and Arizona tie when they play each other. The Detroit Lions could move to the brink of winning the NFC North with a win and defeats for both Minnesota and Green Bay and we are in to that time of the season when team's desperation for wins begin to factor into the spreads.

That is something I am trying to ignore and keep breaking down games as I have and take advantage of spreads that are out of sync.


Week 13 proved another narrow winning one as I recovered from a 1-3 start to end the week with a 4-3 record. I am looking for more consistency to put a really big week together, but I don't want to press too much hoping for angles which are tenuous at best.

Week 14 will open with a huge AFC West game between the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs with the Division lead on the line, and there are plenty of fascinating games to come this week. Look out for the weather conditions which begin to play havoc in December and factor that into your breakdowns to make sure you're not picking games without noting the huge issues that can occur at this time of the season.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Thursday Night Football was something of a dud earlier this season with a number of really bad games seemingly picked to open the NFL Week. Ratings are down and talk is that the Thursday Night games pre-Thanksgiving Day will not be on the schedule once the television contract needs renewing in 2018.

This week there won't be many complaints about the game scheduled to be played as the AFC West Division lead is on the line when the Oakland Raiders visit the Kansas City Chiefs. The weather has taken a turn for the worse with the undersoil heating hoping to thaw a frozen field in time for this game, but neither Oakland nor Kansas City are in the excuse making business.

The Raiders currently lead the AFC West by one game over the Kansas City Chiefs, but a win for the latter will mean they have swept the Divisional series and will have the tie-breaker. Matching the Oakland record the rest of the way would mean the Chiefs earn home field for the Wild Card Round and perhaps even finish with the best record in the AFC if they could win out.

I have no doubt Oakland will have something to say about that as one of three NFL teams who have won every road game they have played this season. The home loss to the Chiefs was a blow, but Oakland have bounced back nicely and this looks set to be a very good game on Thursday night.

A lot will depend on Derek Carr and whether he is going to be able to play in what is likely the coldest temperature he would have ever felt. The pressure is on the Oakland Quarter Back because the Offensive Line and his pedestrian Running Backs have not been able to produce enough yards on the ground and I would not be surprised if Carr is in the shotgun formation for much of this one with issues around his pinkie finger.

Carr is good enough to get the ball out of his hands quickly to try and negate the Kansas City pass rush which has Justin Houston back in the line up to give them a boost. I think the Chiefs will pressure Carr, but the Secondary do give up some big plays and I would expect both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper to win plenty of their battles on the outside. However Kansas City have a ball-hawking Secondary that will feast on any mistakes Carr throws which might be an issue, although I do like how Carr looks after the ball for the most part.

While Carr is going to have some nice numbers having to carry much of the Offense, Kansas City will be looking for Alex Smith to manage the game and hope to run the ball down the Oakland throat. Spencer Ware had a big game when the Chiefs beat Oakland on the road, and I think he will have some nice numbers in this one with the Raiders Defensive Line having a few issues against the run in recent games.

The key for the Raiders will be to try and get the Chiefs into obvious passing situations and allow their pass rush, most notably Khalil Mack, try and get after Smith at Quarter Back. The Raiders can get to Smith, but third and manageable will see Smith find Travis Kelce and a returning Jeremy Maclin against an improving Oakland Secondary whose numbers look better with the pass rush being able to penetrate opposition backfields.

Both teams will feel they can move the chains in this one and I do think it is going to come down to a last possession deciding the winner. Oakland have produced some late game heroics on the road to win some of their games, but Kansas City seem to always find either a turnover or a Special Teams play to turn a game in their favour with more of the same in Week 13 helping them beat Atlanta on the road.

The fact I see this going down to the wire makes the start with Oakland all the more appealing now that the number has moved above the key number three. It does suggest the sharp money is on the home team, but Oakland are 8-2 against the spread in Kansas City and the road team has dominated this series. I will take the road underdog with the points to open my Week 14 picks from the NFL.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: It looks like this big AFC game in Week 14 is going to be accompanied by snow, but the Pittsburgh Steelers won't be unfamiliar with the conditions they face when they head to the Buffalo Bills. This is a massive game for both the Steelers and Bills with massive Play Off implications, but the public have made it clear that they want to back Pittsburgh.

It looks the early sharp money has also backed the Steelers who have moved from a two point favourite to a three point favourite on the road. That isn't the greatest spot for Pittsburgh, but I think they are quietly becoming one of the hottest teams in the NFL and one that no one will want to face in January.

Of course most will focus on Ben Roethlisberger and the high powered Offense, but the Pittsburgh Defensive unit have stepped up in recent games. They will need to be very strong at the line of scrimmage as they take on the Buffalo Bills who might be one defeat from extending their streak of years without a Play Off appearance.

LeSean McCoy has been very strong for Buffalo and will be backed by Tyrod Taylor who has shown to be a much more effective runner than a passer. However both are facing the Steelers Defensive Line which has only allowed 60 yards per game on the ground during their three game winning run, albeit against teams that are not exactly known for running the ball. However the Steelers played Dallas well on the ground for large parts of that game and will feel they can makes plays against Shady and Taylor in the backfield.

Taylor does have Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods back to give him an effective Receiver tandem having missed large parts of the season when they were unavailable. The problem for Taylor will be in third and long situations because the Offensive Line has struggled to protect him and recent games have seen the Steelers explode into the backfield and cause plenty of havoc. That has protected the Secondary and this game could come down to how well Buffalo can control the clock and run the ball.

Some may have seen Oakland throw the ball very well against Buffalo last week and think it could be the same this week. It was actually the running game that worked so well and got the Raiders back into the game and the threat from Roethlisberger might see Le'Veon Bell pick up from where Latavius Murray left off. Bell is one of the better Running Backs in the NFL and Buffalo concentrating on stopping the pass will give him plenty of chances to rip off some big gains in the cold conditions.

The wind is not anticipated to be a big problem this week so Roethlisberger should be able to make some solid plays to Antonio Brown. The Bills have struggled for an effective pass rush in recent games and Big Ben has been well protected, while Ladarius Green has become a real weapon in the passing game after returning from injury. The Steelers have been looking for another big target outside of Brown and Green is certainly capable at Tight End with the big money signing getting healthier every week.

These teams haven't played one another since 2013, but Pittsburgh have dominated the recent games they have played. I think the Steelers are getting hot at the right time on both sides of the ball and I believe they can get the better of Buffalo on the road and push Rex Ryan onto the hot seat. It will be tight but once they get Tyrod Taylor having to throw the ball, the pass rush can combine with an overachieving Secondary to make some plays and allow the Steelers to come away with the win by around seven points.


San Diego Chargers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There is going to be some disappointment for both the Carolina Panthers and San Diego Chargers when looking back at the 2016 season as both are destined to miss the Play Offs. That would have been the least they expected this time around, but both have a losing record and look to be playing out the string this season.

The San Diego Chargers have to fly out east for an early game and that is never easy for West Coast teams so I am leaning towards the Carolina Panthers to cover the small number. The Panthers were atrocious in being blown out by the Seattle Seahawks, but a return to their home Stadium might at least give them a little motivation to prove they are better than they showed in front of the national audience.

Carolina won't be back in action until Monday Night Football in Week 15 while San Diego have a couple of big games left when they try and play spoiler for Divisional rivals Oakland and Kansas City who both have to visit Southern California before the season is done. A lot of this will depend on what Philip Rivers is feeling having been guilty of too many Interceptions in recent games which has prevented the Chargers having a chance to challenge for a Play Off spot.

It might be a better match up for him this week against a Carolina Defensive unit that has given up plenty of big plays through the air. Luke Kuechly looks to miss out again, but the Panthers have created some turnovers in the Secondary which is going to be a problem for Rivers, while his Receivers are a little erratic anyway. Rivers might also be under immense pressure from the pass rush that Carolina have maintained from last season especially if Melvin Gordon is not able to take advantage of some of the problems that Carolina have had up front.

Interceptions have also been a problem for Cam Newton with the 2015 MVP not playing up to the level of last season. Part of the problem has been the little time he has been given by his Offensive Line while the Panthers are built to run the ball and failing to establish that leaves them behind the chains. Jonathan Stewart is not expected to have a huge outing this week which will leave the pressure on Newton.

The Quarter Back does have some solid Receivers that he can call upon with Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen big targets in the passing game. The Chargers pass rush has struggled a little bit of late which means Newton should have some time to hit those players downfield considering the injuries in the San Diego Secondary and I expect them to bounce back this week and give their fans something to smile about.

The long trip out east coupled with the fact that San Diego might potentially be focusing on the Kansas City game in Week 15 could play a part in this one. I also think Cam Newton and the Panthers will feel they owe their fans a better performance after being embarrassed on national television last week and I believe they bounce back with a win. It will be close but the Panthers can make one or two big plays in the Secondary to come away with a win by a Field Goal.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: If the Detroit Lions win this week and both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers were to lose, the Lions will be on the brink of the Play Offs and winning the NFC North. I do think the Lions are playing well enough to beat the Chicago Bears who have been hurt by injuries and must be looking forward to getting this season out of the way and continue the rebuild of their team.

On first glance you may think this is a big number having to ask Detroit to cover more than a converted Touchdown worth of points, but I think the Lions are capable of doing that. It won't be down to the Offense that the Lions do that, but their Defensive unit are playing at a high level at the moment and can give Matt Barkley and the Bears a few problems to solve.

Matt Stafford has played well even though Calvin Johnson has been dancing through his retirement, but the Chicago Secondary have been much improved. They have made some big plays and forced teams to settle for Field Goals, while the Lions are not likely to expose any of the issues Chicago have on the Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run.

It will be up to Stafford to avoid any mistakes and also the Chicago pass rush which has been able to get to the Quarter Back. However I do think Stafford can move the chains with his ability to find the open Receiver, while the faster indoor surface should make it easier for the Lions too.

The Lions have been winning plenty of games thanks to a Defensive unit that has given up 20 points or fewer in six straight games. They should be able to slow down Jordan Howard who had a huge game last week and that will force Barkley to make plays at Quarter Back from third and long spots from which the Detroit Secondary have feasted. Barkley has been well protected so he should have time to make his throws, but missing the likes of Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White is a big blow for them.

It is going to be up to Barkley to avoid the big mistakes throwing the ball which is where the Lions have been feasting and being able to turn games in their favour. A big Interception helped them beat Minnesota on Thanksgiving Day and the Lions forced Drew Brees into throwing into coverage last week, which is simply not like Brees.

I do think Detroit's Secondary can create some turnovers and that is going to be a key in this game as they find a way to pull away from Chicago. The Bears have played better than expected through the injuries, but I think they might struggle to find enough points in this one and Stafford will be able to create a couple of huge moments for the Offensive unit to pull away.

The Lions are 5-1 against the spread in the last six home games against Chicago and are playing with revenge on their minds having lost at Soldier Field since when they have won seven of eight games. Chicago have not covered in their next five games following a win and I think Detroit come away with a double digit win.


Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Both the Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans are very much in the race for a spot in the Play Offs but neither can afford to drop too many games down the stretch. With four games left both teams will be targeting at least a 3-1 finish to give themselves a chance of getting into the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs and that makes this a very big game for both teams.

The weather could be a big factor in this one with windy conditions looking like it might make it difficult to throw. If the teams are going to keep the ball on the ground, I have to give the Titans a significant edge in the game coming out of the bye week with DeMarco Murray admitting he is feeling much better after some problems with his toe going into the break.

Murray and Derrick Henry give the Titans a big punch from the Running Back positions while Marcus Mariota has shown improvement over the last few weeks and is a threat to run from the Quarter Back spot too. The Denver Broncos have been a little better up front in recent games, but I do think their overall performance this season suggests the Titans can establish the run and keep the chains in a favourable position.

The Denver pass rush could have some success getting into the backfield when Tennessee to drop back to throw the ball, while their Secondary continues to make plays. In fact this Defensive unit is one that will look to turn the ball over and that has been a big part of the Denver success this season and could be a key to keeping them in this game.

I don't really think the Offense is going to have a big day with injuries and uncertainty at Quarter Back affecting the chances of seeing Denver win the Super Bowl again. Their record is a good one, but the Broncos need the Defense to keep them in games and a windy day would not suit this team.

CJ Anderson has been missed at Running Back and Devontae Booker is having some problems in his first season in the NFL. Justin Forsett has been signed to help the Broncos find a more effective running game, but the Titans have been strong on the Defensive Line when it comes to slowing the run and that could be very important for them again in Week 14.

Forcing Denver into third and long will make it difficult for either Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch at Quarter Back with that position still up in the air going into the weekend. Both players will be faced with a strong wind which could make it difficult to throw anyway, but the Tennessee pass rush is likely to put plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back who will be throwing from behind an Offensive Line which has struggled in protection.

It does feel like the Titans have an edge in this one with the conditions and running game working in their favour. I do think the Denver Defensive unit needs to be respected knowing how they have turned things back in their teams favour with big turnovers but Tennessee might be able to keep the ball on the ground and not force Mariota into tough throwing spots, unlike what is likely to happen to Denver.

It's a small spread, but I do think the Titans can win this game and I will back them to cover.


New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The NFC South is going to be battled out down to the wire this season and the surprise contender in the Division are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have the same 7-5 record as Atlanta at the top of the Division. They face the New Orleans Saints who have lost three of their last four games to fall to 5-7 and need to win out and hope for a couple of favours if they are going to win this Division.

The Saints do have some control over that having to face Tampa Bay twice and Atlanta in their final three games but it is a big ask and New Orleans will be out of contention with a loss on Sunday.

I do expect New Orleans to bounce back from what was a pretty terrible Offensive performance in the home defeat to Detroit in Week 13. They have shown plenty of balance on the Offense with Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower being able to run the ball effectively and I do think the Saints can establish the run against a Tampa Bay Defensive Line which has allowed 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games. Stopping the run has been a problem for much of the season and knowing they need to prevent Drew Brees should mean Ingram and Hightower have strong games.

Brees has made more mistakes in recent weeks than we are used to seeing from him and he will have to be careful against this Tampa Bay Secondary which have been picking off passes. The pass rush has managed to get home too which has helped the Tampa Bay Defense produce better numbers against the pass, but I think Brees has a much better game than last week and can get things done from third and manageable down and distance as well as the play-action pass.

There could be something of a shoot out develop between these teams as Jameis Winston tries to continue playing at a high level. Winston has not been helped by much run support and has to rely on his arm to help the Buccaneers to a four game winning streak which has seen them move alongside the Falcons in the Division lead. The New Orleans Defensive Line has been very good in recent games and it looks like it will be up to Winston to win this game for the home team.

He has a couple of big Receivers who have helped in Mike Evans and Cameron Brate but the Saints Secondary have also shown improvement in each passing week. Keeping teams from scoring have not been the Defensive unit's fault because of the turnovers that have gone against them, although the challenge of Evans and Brate is a big one.

Therefore I do believe Tampa Bay will have success, but I really do like the New Orleans balanced Offense to perhaps help them spring the upset. Drew Brees will be looking to show a much better performance in the game flexed into a late kick off, and he should be benefited by being in third and manageable spots for much of the day.

The Saints have gone 7-0 against the spread when coming in off a loss by at least 14 points and and New Orleans have won four straight here including as the underdog last season. This spread had opened at 3 earlier this week which would have been a great number to hold, but I will still take the Saints with the start and look for a potential upset in Tampa Bay.


Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers Pick: A really poor run through the middle of the season has left the Green Bay Packers in a difficult position to make the Play Offs in a season they were considered one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl. They are at 6-6 and a win for the Detroit Lions will mean the Packers are unlikely to win this Division and will have to focus on trying to win out for a Wild Card spot.

Winning out will be far from easy for the Packers who have the Seattle Seahawks coming to town this week as one of the teams who look to be getting hot at the right time. There is no fear of having to play this one in the snow, but Seattle need to bounce back from their last road game where they struggled to compete with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I don't think the Green Bay Packers Defensive unit have played as well as Tampa Bay's has in recent games and stopping Russell Wilson and the Seahawks has been a challenge for them. The Seahawks are looking to maintain their spot as the Number 2 Seed in the NFC which will give them a bye in the Wild Card Round and at least one home Play Off game.

Green Bay have only given up 26 points in their last two games which have resulted in two wins, but slowing down Seattle is going to be a big challenge. Thomas Rawls showed he can give the rushing Offense the spark it has been missing all season and I think he can have a very big game in Week 14 against the Packers Defensive Line which has been struggling in recent games after a strong start to the 2016 season.

Wilson is another threat to get out of the pocket and run for First Downs which is going to be difficult for Green Bay to contain. However the pass rush should at least challenge Wilson behind a porous Offensive Line, although the Quarter Back is one of the best on the run in throwing the ball downfield. Wilson should have a nice game statistically in a game that might feature snow, but won't have a heavy wind accompanying that.

That should also mean Aaron Rodgers is able to have some success throwing the ball as his Receivers begin to win some of their battles. Earl Thomas is a huge miss for Seattle in the Secondary and Rodgers is going to be able to expose that at times, although this Seahawks Legion of Boom is still a unit that will make big stops and perhaps even create some turnovers.

While I do think Rodgers will have some big passing plays, it will be tough to do that consistently on a tight hamstring with the pass rush pressure Seattle bring onto the field. Rodgers has been passing the ball quickly to prevent teams getting to him, but Michael Bennett is back and the Seahawks can get some pressure up front with Green Bay likely to be in some third and long spots through the game.

Christine Michael will try and get some yards on the ground against his former team, but Seattle play the run well and so it will be down to Rodgers to keep Green Bay in this one.

Green Bay as the home underdog has to be a spot that is hard to ignore, but I think Seattle is the better team and can put the Packers in a desperate spot. The loss of Earl Thomas is going to be an issue for the Seahawks, but I am not sure the Green Bay Defense can make enough plays against Russell Wilson which will mean Rodgers having to make big plays against a strong Secondary.

Rodgers can do that for a while, but ultimately I think a turnover or two will cost Green Bay and I do like the Seahawks who are not a public favourite. At just under the key number of 3, I like Seattle to come out with a big road win in Week 14 and will back them to win at the famous Lambeau Field in wintery conditions.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: People are not ready to jump off the Dallas Cowboys bandwagon and they are a public backed favourite in the late Sunday Night Football slot when they take on the New York Giants. This is the only team to have beaten Dallas this season, but they have won eleven in a row since then and a win on Sunday will see the Cowboys close in on the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Games between the Cowboys and Giants tend to be very competitive as the Division rivals raise their game to play one another and I have little doubt this one will be close. So close that I like the New York Giants getting more than a Field Goal worth of points as the home underdog.

One of the problems for New York has been trying to find an effective running game to give the Offense some balance to what they are trying to do. Rashad Jennings hasn't been consistent enough, while Shane Vereen is still a little away from coming back into the mix and that has meant more pressure on Eli Manning to make plays with his arm.

Jennings may have some success in this one with Dallas allowing 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games, but it will be considered a positive if he can help keep the team in third and manageable and slow down any pass rush. The Cowboys have not had a consistent pass rush anyway, while the Secondary is banged up and remains a Defense that will bend but not always break. With Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard to call upon, Manning should have a decent outing in this one and maintain drives to keep the Dallas Offense on the sidelines.

However they won't be able to control the clock as they would like and Dallas will have plenty of time with the ball in the hands of their Offense. The line of scrimmage is going to be a huge factor in this one with the Giants Defensive Line priding themselves on being able to shut down the run and the big Cowboys Offensive Line looking to show they are the best in the NFL by opening holes for Ezekiel Elliot.

Dallas will stick to the game plan and Elliot has shown he can make some big gains even after contact so I do think the Cowboys will have some success as they have all season. There will be times they are in third and long though and that means Dak Prescott has to make some plays against an underrated Secondary that will be able to turn the ball over. Jason Pierre-Paul is out which is a huge blow for the Giants pass rush, but this is a team that still has Olivier Vernon and have shown they can bring down the Quarter Back.

Getting to Prescott may force some mistakes from the Quarter Back even if he has limited those throughout the season. It may prevent the big plays to Dez Bryant and I think the Giants match up quite well with Dallas which makes me believe the underdog is the right side in this game.

I think Manning can match the scoring output against a Secondary that have allowed some big plays, while the Giants are 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series. It looks like a game that might well be settled by a Field Goal at the end and so I will take the points with the home team.


Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Pick: There are some big Play Off implications on the line on Monday Night Football when the Baltimore Ravens travel to the New England Patriots. The Patriots can move a step closer to securing the Number 1 Seed in the AFC while the Ravens can move back into the top six places after slipping out following the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Buffalo Bills.

This looks like it has the makings of a Defensive battle between the Ravens and Patriots and I am keen on taking the points with the road team. Both teams have been better on the Defensive side of the ball and I do think the loss of Rob Gronkowski hurts Tom Brady in the coming weeks.

It is going to be a much more difficult test for Brady as he can't rely upon LeGarrette Blount to trample teams as he has in recent games. The Ravens are much more stout up front than the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets or Los Angeles Rams and Tom Brady could find himself in third and long more often than he would like.

Losing a safety blanket like Gronkowski is going to mean the pressure is on the other Receivers and Tight Ends on the roster to fill the gap and that won't be easy. The Patriots have just had a few issues scoring points in the last couple of games without the All-Pro Tight End and the Ravens can generate some pressure up front which can help cover the issues in the Secondary, while they have shown they can turn the ball over.

This is also going to be challenge for the Baltimore Ravens to move the chains with some consistency as the Patriots Defensive unit have shown improvement in recent games. Again it has to be mentioned that they have not played the best teams in the NFL, but I don't think Baltimore will have a consistent running game from Kenneth Dixon or Terrance West which will put the pressure on Joe Flacco to perform.

Flacco had a great performance against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13, but this is going to be a cold evening in Foxboro and it won't be easy for the Quarter Back. He is going to be under pressure from a revitalised pass rush New England have generated but Flacco has had success in this Stadium in the past and does have some decent Receivers who can win their battles.

The New England Secondary have allowed some Quarter Backs to produce solid numbers through the air and Flacco can have a decent game to keep Baltimore in this one. I am not sure Baltimore will win the game, but they can have enough success to keep this one within the number.

Both teams will have strong kickers to hit Field Goals from distance where necessary and this game might boil down to a couple of big plays to decide the winner. It all feels like one that might be decided by a Field Goal and I want to take the points in this one from the final game of Week 14.

MY PICKS: Oakland Raiders + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)