College Football Picks- Bowl Games 2021 (December 17-21)

It is that time of the season to go Bowling in College Football and I am planning to split my threads into four parts over the coming month.

This one will cover the early games, before I will begin a second thread that should take in all the games to be played over the Christmas period. Following that, I will have a thread covering the Bowl Games around the New Year period before the final post covering the National Championship Game.

You have to question motivations and it is also a good idea to note players that may decide to skip the lesser Bowl Games in preparation for the NFL Draft which is coming up in the first half of 2022. It can make selections during the Bowl period a little more difficult than the regular season, although any Picks are far from straight-forward over the course of the season.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Toledo Rockets Pick: The 2021 Bowl season will begin with the Bahamas Bowl and it will involve two teams who will feel they underachieved in their Conferences this season. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) and the Toledo Rockets (7-5) should still be plenty motivated ahead of this Bowl Game, even if the exotic surroundings can be something of a distraction to players.

The Blue Raiders have had a really inconsistent season, but Head Coach Rick Stockstill is hoping to lead his team to their first winning record since 2018. That was also the last season in which Middle Tennessee played in a Bowl Game, although the school will be looking for a better conclusion to 2021 having been blown out by the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the New Orleans Bowl.

They are a considerable underdog against the Toledo Rockets who won three in a row to finish with a guaranteed winning record for a fifth season in six under Head Coach Jason Candle. That cannot be underestimated, even if the Rockets were not quite good enough to reach the MAC Championship Game.

Toledo will be encouraged by the three wins in succession and they have been an all or nothing kind of team- they have either blown teams out, or ended up losing scrappy games, while the Rockets are another team that have not been invited into a Bowl Game since 2018. It is something that will irritate the Seniors on the team considering they have been eligible for selection in both 2019 and 2020 and I expect Toledo to want to make the most of the opportunity in front of them.

I have to believe the Rockets will be encouraged by the way they have been running the ball and establishing the ground attack will make them very dangerous, especially as Toledo have been a team that doesn't shoot themselves in the foot. In the three game winning run, the Rockets have pounded the rock with considerable success and I do think that is a potential problem for the Blue Raiders Defensive Line, even though they have largely been tough to run against.

The Toledo Offensive Line is also very strong in pass protection and that is going to give Dequan Finn a good chance to have a big game at Quarter Back. I expect the Rockets to also factor in Carter Bradley into the game plan at the Quarter Back position, and between the two players I do think the Rockets can move the ball through the air thanks to the protection offered by the Offensive Line.

Looking after the ball has been a big feature of the way Toledo have operated this season, but Middle Tennessee will be looking to keep the turnovers coming. It could be a key to the outcome of the game considering some of the Offensive difficulties that the Blue Raiders may have in this game as they continue to operate with a third string Quarter Back.

That makes it very important for the underdog to establish the run, especially as any struggles up front is going to shift the momentum in favour of the Rockets considerably. In recent games it has been possible for the Blue Raiders to get the run going, but over the course of the season the Rockets have been pretty stout on the Defensive Line and they may even risk putting an extra man or two in the box to make sure Middle Tennessee are relying on an inexperienced Quarter Back to beat them.

Any time Toledo have their opponent in third and long, the very strong pass rush being generated by the Rockets is likely going to take over this game. That pressure has enabled the Secondary to make some big plays and I think it is going to be the main reason Toledo are able to win this game and pull clear.

Middle Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog, while they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six on a neutral field.

Neither team has been at their best in recent Bowl Games, but Toledo do play non-Conference opponents pretty well and I think that will help them here. As long as they can continue to play mistake-free Football, I think the Rockets can win this one by a margin wide enough to cover this mark.

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Pick: They finished 0-6 in 2020 and the Northern Illinois Huskies (9-4) were tipped up by many to have another difficult season in front of them. Head Coach Thomas Hammock had overseen back to back losing seasons, but the Huskies were rewarded for keeping faith in him as he led them to the MAC Championship in 2021.

That means Northern Illinois are back in the Bowl season for the first time since 2018 and they are looking to snap a six game losing run in the post-season. A relatively short period of preparation for this Bowl Game may not be ideal for the Huskies, but they have already overachieved by picking up a Championship and they may feel they have nothing to lose.

The same could be said for the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (10-2), but there is something for them to aim for with a victory here- the Chanticleers could make it back to back seasons with eleven wins if they were to win, while it would also be the first time Coastal Carolina have won a Bowl Game.

Coastal Carolina have to be encouraged by the way they have been able to run the ball all season and the Offensive Line have to be given a lot of credit for that. That is underlined by the fact that the Chanticleers have a number of players that have been able to rush the ball for at least 500 yards this season and I fully expect Coastal Carolina to have considerable success on the ground in this one too.

It has been a weakness for the Huskies Defensive Line to stop the run and I think that will see the Chanticleers move the ball with success for much of this game. Running the ball also opens the game up for Grayson McCall at Quarter Back and it should mean he is afforded a little more time despite the fact that the Carolina Coastal Offensive Line have not been the best in pass protection and especially not compared with the level produced in run blocking.

If Grayson McCall is in front of the chains, he should be able to make some big throws against the Northern Illinois Secondary and the Chanticleers will be feeling good about their Offensive power in this Bowl Game.

This feels like a game in which you can trust the Chanticleers to find solid balance Offensively, but the same cannot be said for Northern Illinois despite the team coming in off the high of beating the Kent State Golden Flashes in the MAC Championship Game. The Huskies are very much a run first team, but there is no guarantee that a strong Offensive Line can get the better of the Chanticleers Defensive Line, which has proven to be stout against the run.

As impressive as Coastal Carolina have been on the Defensive Line, you do have to feel the Huskies will have some successes. Some is not going to be good enough to snap their run of Bowl defeats though and I am not convinced that Rocky Lombardi can have the successes at Quarter Back to move the chains with the consistency of the Chanticleers on the other side of the ball.

Rocky Lombardi should be given some protection, but he has thrown 13 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions and any mistakes are going to give the Chanticleers the extra possessions to move away from Northern Illinois.

The Huskies will be trying to climb down off the emotional high of winning a Championship, and they have failed to cover in their last six Bowl Games, while they are also just 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games when set as the underdog on a neutral field.

Coastal Carolina have not been a very good favourite to back, but the sharp money looks to be on them in this Bowl Game and I think they can be asked to lay the points as the Seniors sign off with their place in history secured.

MY PICKS: Toledo Rockets - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Appalachian State Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Utah State Aggies + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NFL Week 15 Picks 2016 (December 15-19)

We are now just three weeks from the end of the regular season in the NFL and it looks like the Play Off battle is going to go down to the wire, particularly for the Wild Card spots. The competition looks to be of a high enough standard that it might need ten wins to earn a Wild Card spot in both Conferences, although the picture will begin to clear up a little more in Week 15 with some big games on tap.

The two games that particularly leap off the page are the Detroit Lions visiting the New York Giants and the Tennessee Titans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. All four of those teams are very much in the mix for the Play Off places in the NFC/AFC respectively, but none of them could afford a loss which might cost them the opportunity to continue playing football into the second week of January.

Plenty of other teams have to avoid difficult Divisional battles this week including the Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Oakland Raiders with all three of those teams being on the road.

Week 15 looks like it could be another really good one.


One of the big news stories of the week was the firing of Jeff Fisher by the Los Angeles Rams despite the contract extension he was given last week. I couldn't believe the Rams were not going to make a change when they announced that extension as they have already begun to lose fan interest behind a mediocre team, but finally it looks like Stan Kroenke has made the right decision.

Fisher has stunk up the NFL for the last few seasons with losing record after losing record and I have no idea what has kept him in his job. I've never seen a Head Coach to cover the Vegas spreads more than winning games as much as Fisher has done over the years and he must have been loved by the sharps with the inflated spreads his poor team would get.

Even that has fallen apart in recent games and I would be really surprised if Fisher gets another shot as an NFL Head Coach.

But where do the Rams turn to? Talk about Jim Harbaugh looks to have been shot down, but Jon Gruden may be tempted out of the ESPN booth. Gruden would be my choice, but there are a few other names being considered and I am looking forward to seeing where the Rams go next.


The picks had a slightly poorer week last week than they have in recent weeks, but I keep feeling like I am taking one step forward and one step backwards. I would love to put a big week in the books this week to get this season in a really good position, but at least I have been avoiding the really bad week that can send me into a hole.

Thursday Night Football has not been much fun for me in recent weeks, but I am looking to get a winner on the board early in Week 15.


Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: It was a terrible effort from both the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, but a return home should see a much better performance from the Seahawks. It is hard to know what to expect from the Rams simply because they are on a short week in which they have fired the Head Coach and given the job to Special Teams Coach John Fassel who admitted he was surprised to have been picked as the Interim Head Coach.

No matter what Fassel does, he is not in contention for the permanent Head Coaching role and I am not sure what kind of game plan he could have put together. It doesn't help that the Rams have one of the worst Offenses in the NFL despite Todd Gurley at Running Back and they have not seen a lot of positives from Jared Goff since he took over as the Quarter Back for the team.

Now they play the Legion of Boom who have got to be super irritated with the effort last week in the loss to the Green Bay Packers, even if Seattle's problems came from the turnovers thrown by Russell Wilson. Gurley is not expected to get a lot of room so it will be up to Goff to throw into the Seattle Secondary to try and move the chains, although I expect the Rams to use a lot of gimmicks to keep the Offense on the field.

It might be a chance for the recently non-existent Seattle pass rush to get going as the Rams Offensive Line has had a few problems protecting a Quarter Back who holds the ball for a little too long. Goff hasn't been helped by Wide Receiver drops, but he is in for a real challenge here and Los Angeles might struggle to tempt a big name Head Coach if they get to see film of this one.

On the other side of the ball, Thomas Rawls should be able to have a really big game against the Rams Defensive Line which has given up big numbers on the ground. Russell Wilson can make some plays with his legs too, but I also expect the Quarter Back will be keen to show Week 14 was an exception to his usual levels as he lights up the Rams Secondary which has also been struggling.

Seattle's Offensive Line issues could be a real concern moving into the Play Offs and the Rams Defensive Line can penetrate into the backfield. However I think Wilson is moving well enough to make some plays on the run and the Seahawks have a real chance to embarrass the Los Angeles Rams who beat them earlier in the season.

In fact the Rams have won four of their last five against Seattle and have won three in a row in the series, so the Seahawks should be really motivated to win this one. It is a big number, but I am not sure the Rams are going to be able to score enough points to stay with a team who have scored at least 26 points in each of their last four home games.

I can see the Seahawks using a couple of big turnovers to pull away from the Los Angeles Rams in this one and I just can't see Goff and the Offense to stay with them through their mistakes. The Rams are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine in this Divisional rivalry, but I think the Seahawks score thirty plus points and cover.


Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: The win over the Arizona Cardinals might be a pivotal one for the Miami Dolphins who are hoping to get back into the Play Offs for the first time since the 2008 season. It came at a cost though with starting Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill going down for the rest of the season, but the Miami Dolphins have made Matt Moore one of the better paid back up Quarter Backs in recent seasons.

The Offensive game plan should be one that works to Moore's advantage with the Dolphins looking to establish the run where they can and have their Quarter Back avoid making any big mistakes from third and manageable. Injuries to the Offensive Line has made running the ball more difficult in recent games, and that includes against the San Francisco 49ers who have been terrible at stopping the run.

It does raise some questions as to whether Jay Ajayi can move the chains effectively against the New York Jets Defensive Line which allowed Carlos Hyde to trample them in Week 14. The Jets have allowed 5.4 yards per carry and 159 yards per game on the ground in their last three games, but there is no guarantee Miami can take full advantage with some key players on that Offensive Line either banged up or out for the season.

So can Moore move the chains through the air when necessary? He should have a chance to do that because the Jets have not got a lot of pressure up front meaning Moore should have some chances to throw the ball effectively. The New York Jets Secondary is not as strong as in recent seasons and Moore has some big Receivers in DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry who can make plays for him.

The Offense should have some success, but the Defensive unit have to pick up their play if the Miami Dolphins are going to make it into the Play Offs. The Defensive Line has had some real problems stopping the run in recent games, although Matt Forte is absent for the Jets and Bilal Powell has had some big moments but has also been inconsistent. Like the Dolphins, there is room for the Jets to make some plays on the ground, but whether they have the consistency to do that is open to question.

Also like the Dolphins, the Jets will be hoping their Quarter Back Bryce Petty can move the chains when necessary as they also try to work out whether he can be the starting Quarter Back going forward. Petty was dropped a number of times by the San Francisco 49ers last week and this Miami Defensive Line can pressure the Quarter Back when in obvious passing situations so I think Petty will be under some pressure. He has also thrown some bad balls which have led to Interceptions and this Dolphins Secondary have helped turn things in their favour with turnovers at critical times.

However I do think Petty will have some success too against this Secondary and that should keep this one interesting.

Despite what people feel about Ryan Tannehill, his loss is a blow for the Dolphins even if Matt Moore is one of the better back up Quarter Backs in the NFL. I think Tannehill's absence will be crucial later in the season, but Moore can help win a game like this one against a Jets team that haven't been playing as hard as their fans would like. I do think Bryce Petty has a couple of really good drives, but a turnover or two will help Miami keep in front and I will back the Dolphins to win on the road.

The road team is also 13-6-1 against the spread in the last twenty games between these Divisional rivals and I will back the Dolphins to cover.


Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: It is going to be very, very cold and windy in Chicago on Sunday in Week 15 as the Bears try to knock off the Green Bay Packers and also remain in front of their great rivals in the historical head to head. A win for the Packers will mean they are tied in wins and losses in history for the first time since 1933!

This is going to be a big test for the Packers who need to win out and hope that is enough to overhaul the Detroit Lions at the top of the NFC North. The Packers have to believe it is possible considering the schedules of the two teams, but they can't overlook the Chicago Bears despite the record with the way they have been playing in recent games.

Matt Barkley has proved to be a more effective replacement for Jay Cutler at Quarter Back than I think most would have imagined and the Bears have been competitive in their recent games. Alshon Jefferey is back from suspension which will give Barkley a big target, but the conditions are going to make it tough to throw the ball so you have to believe there will be a huge amount of handing the ball off to Jordan Howard.

It should be noted that Howard was comfortable in snowy conditions in the win over the San Francisco 49ers and the Running Back has proven he can play at this level in place of Jeremy Langford. Recent games have seen the Green Bay Defensive Line have a few issues when it comes to slowing the run, and I do think Howard can have a solid outing which will control the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense off the field.

Green Bay are likely going to need Rodgers to negotiate the conditions a lot more than Chicago need Barkley to do the same. That is because the Bears have been able to run the ball in recent games, something that has been an arduous task for the Green Bay Packers for much of the season and even before Eddie Lacy went down with an injury. The Bears haven't been particularly stout up front, but the Packers have not run the ball well which will mean Rodgers having to make some big plays in the wind.

That is going to be far from easy against this Defensive unit who have gotten plenty of pressure up front and improved play from the Secondary in recent games. Rodgers is dealing with calf and hamstring issues which means he will need the Offensive Line at their best, but Chicago can force him to get rid of the ball quicker than he would like and this will stall drives.

It could also lead to some critical turnovers and the Bears look the right side to back in this one with the points they are being given. Jordan Howard should be able to run the ball effectively which will keep Barkley and the Bears in a decent position and I think the Bears Defensive unit have played well enough to be very good in the conditions and keep this close.

Field Goal kicking is going to be difficult too so I am looking for a close game that sees the Chicago Bears stay within the points.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: There is a lot of talk about Gus Bradley and whether his time as Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars is coming to a close at the end of this season. This was a team that was expected to take some big strides forward, but the Jaguars are the only team out of contention in the awful AFC South and Bradley has been criticised for the manner in which his team have been playing.

At least they are going up against a Divisional rival this week which should get the juices going for the road team. The Houston Texans have managed to stay in the lead of the AFC South, but this is a big three games for Bill O'Brien who put his stock in Brock Osweiler at Quarter Back who may just be the first worst starting Quarter Back in the NFL.

This is going to be a big test for Osweiler if the Jacksonville Defensive Line can prevent Lamar Miller from taking control of the game. They have been stout up front which should mean Miller is contained for the most part and that will shift the pressure on Osweiler who has not been comfortable throwing the ball.

The Jacksonville Defensive Line is one of the better aspects of this unit and they can get pressure on Osweiler if he is in third and long. Look for the Quarter Back to set up screen plays and short crossing routes to try and keep the chains moving, but the Texans are very happy to try and win the field battle and use their own Defensive unit to force the Jaguars into the mistakes which have blighted them Offensively all season.

It may be possible for Jacksonville to lean on TJ Yeldon at Running Back to at least keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. Yeldon doesn't have big numbers, but the Texans have given up 4.4 yards per carry up front in their most recent games which suggests the Running Back can make some big plays on the ground.

There is little doubt the Jaguars need to keep the Offense in third and manageable on the ground because Blake Bortles has made far too many mistakes at Quarter Back during the course of the season. His mistakes have cost the Jaguars on more than one occasion this season and Bortles will face some pressure from the Texans up front, while this is a solid Secondary that don't make huge mistakes.

Houston showed they can turn the ball over when teams try to pass against them and they can hurt Bortles a couple of times which allows the team to pull away as they look to win the AFC South. Those mistakes are a big reason I like the Texans in this game and they have been better at home where they are 4-1-1 against the spread this season.

I don't particularly like Brock Osweiler as a Quarter Back, but he can manage the game for long enough for the Defensive unit to force a couple of mistakes from Blake Bortles and win this game and cover.


Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: A win over the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 means the Kansas City Chiefs are in prime position to win the AFC West and perhaps even challenge for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. Every week you do look at the Chiefs and wonder how they can keep winning playing the way they are, but every week the Chiefs manage to add a win to their record as they are set for another Play Off appearance.

The Kansas City Chiefs meet the Denver Broncos next, but they can't overlook or underestimate a Tennessee Titans team who are desperate to win the AFC South. The Titans are only behind the Houston Texans on the tie-breaker, but they control their own destiny if they can win out.

That means heading to Arrowhead Stadium and winning this big game in Week 15 which is so important to both teams. If this game had been played earlier in the season, the Titans would have felt very confident they could run the ball effectively against the Chiefs Defensive Line, but recent games have seen an improvement from the Chiefs in stopping the run.

Some of that has to do with who they have played though and this will be a big test for the Chiefs Defensive Line against a Titans Offensive Line which has ploughed some big holes for DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Murray has had a really big season and the Titans have established the run for much of the season, while Marcos Mariota is more than capable of moving the chains with his own legs from the Quarter Back position.

Keeping the team in third and manageable spots have proven to be the key for the Tennessee Titans and Mariota is playing with plenty of confidence from Quarter Back. He has been given time by the Offensive Line, while the play-action works really well for them too, and Mariota could have some steady numbers against the Kansas City Secondary. The importance of not turning the ball over won't be lost on the Titans and Mariota, especially knowing how much this Chiefs Defensive unit love to do that.

On the other side of the ball the Titans Defensive Line has been very good at the line of scrimmage and have plugged the holes to prevent teams being able to run the ball against them. Without Jamaal Charles, Kansas City have had difficulties establishing the run and the Titans will feel they can force Alex Smith to make time consuming drives through the air with his short passes.

There can be some pressure generated up front, but Smith should have a solid time making his passes against a Secondary that has struggled. Tyreek Hill has proven to be an effective playmaker down the field with his speed hard to contain so Smith does have a legitimate threat down the field that he will take shots to, but generally the Quarter Back is happy to make short passes and look to have long drives ending in points.

It is the Special Teams that have really helped the Chiefs win games they perhaps should not be and I think that will need to be a key factor for them over the next few weeks if they are going to make the Super Bowl. That could be important for them in this game, but it feels like the Titans will have their successes too which makes the points being given to them look very attractive. It will be a cold day, but the Titans can run the ball effectively and I will back the underdog to keep this one close.


Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: This is an absolute 'must win' game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings with both teams chasing leaders in their Division. The Wild Card spots are beginning to move out of reach for the losing team and you have to think the team that loses will be out of contention for the post-season.

It is probably a little more important for the Minnesota Vikings in a much stronger Division than the one the Indianapolis Colts play in. The home team look like they might be getting a much needed reinforcement in Week 15 now that Adrian Peterson is back in practice and declaring himself ready to go and help a Minnesota team that have forgotten about a 5-0 start as they head into Week 15 at 7-6.

Peterson's return would perhaps spark a rushing game that has struggled without him this season even if the Vikings have shown some life in that regard of late. The Vikings should be able to find some room on the ground against this Indianapolis Defensive Line which has allowed 4.4 yards per carry over their last three games having had issues to stop the run all season.

That is important for the Vikings who have seen some inconsistent play from Sam Bradford at Quarter Back over their last eight games which has seen Minnesota drop six. There have been some improvements in the Secondary from the Indianapolis Colts in recent games, but Bradford could have a solid game if the Vikings are running the ball effectively too.

Running the ball has been an issue for Indianapolis this season as well as it has for Minnesota, but they too may feel they can have some joy against a Vikings Defensive Line which has perhaps worn down over the course of the season. Veteran Frank Gore has shown he still has some zip in his legs to break a big play or two and getting the run game established will aid Andrew Luck who has been playing behind a porous Offensive Line.

Minnesota are more than capable of getting the pressure on Luck if in third and long, but running the ball eases that rush and also means the Quarter Back can make some throws out of the play-action. The Vikings Secondary has played well, but they are going to be missing Harrison Smith for this one and Indianapolis have players like TY Hilton who can make big plays down the field where the Safety Smith would usually be able to make plays.

I do think both teams will have more joy moving the chains in this one than you may initially imagine with the Offenses both having some difficulties in recent games. The likely return of Adrian Peterson has meant the spread has inflated towards the Vikings, but I do think Andrew Luck can help the Colts move the chains and stay with their hosts. The weather plays no part inside the dome and a fast track should mean the Colts can make some big plays and I will back the underdog with the points to at least keep this one competitive.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I picked the New York Giants to cover against the Dallas Cowboys last week because I thought it would be a close game in which the Giants match up well with them. That was my feeling and it worked out that way, but I was not anticipating a Quarter Back controversy to develop, but the Dallas Cowboys are always news in the United States.

Dak Prescott remains in charge of the Offense, but he will need to bounce back to keep the pressure of Tony Romo breathing down his neck at the position. There have been some signs of Prescott hitting a rookie wall, but I do think the performance against the Giants was an exception rather than the rule. He will be tested to the full by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have improved on the Defensive side of the ball which has put them in contention to make the Play Offs.

The Buccaneers will get plenty of pressure up front on the Cowboys Offensive Line which has just hit some difficulties in pass protection of late. That pressure has led to Quarter Backs making mistakes when throwing into the Secondary where the Buccaneers have created plenty of turnovers and Prescott has to be aware of the challenge in front of him.

However the Buccaneers Defensive Line has had a few problems containing the run and I fully expect Dallas to try and ram the ball down their throat as long as this game is close. Ezekiel Elliot and the Dallas Offensive Line can keep the team in third and manageable which will make things easier for Prescott and I do think the Cowboys will have some success against them.

The question then shifts to the Tampa Bay Offense and whether they can stay with the Cowboys who should be able to score a few points in this one. The Buccaneers haven't been able to run the ball that effectively in recent games which could be a problem for them this week as the Cowboys Defensive Line have been producing solid outings in limiting what teams can do on the ground.

It will mean Jameis Winston is under pressure to make plays against a Secondary which has given up big plays, but one that can get the stops when they really need them. Winston has some big targets like Mike Evans and Cameron Brate who can be virtually impossible to stop, and it will be important for the Quarter Back to avoid any big mistakes to give Dallas extra possessions.

I do think the Buccaneers can make enough plays in the passing game to stay with the Cowboys even if I don't think they win this game. The Tampa Bay Defense has played well enough to at least make a couple of big stops against Dallas and I think Winston will throw the ball effectively to get within the number. Sunday looks like being a day for the underdog for me and I am going to take what looks a lot of points to give a confident Tampa Bay team who can easily score a backdoor Touchdown to cover with this many points given to them.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 16 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 4 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

English Football Weekend Picks (December 17th-18th)

These are the picks from the weekend football- obviously with the Christmas period being packed, I am going to have separate posts for each set of games.

I am going to add picks throughout the next couple of days so follow me on Twitter where I will let you know when more picks are up.

Blackburn Rovers v West Brom Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12663-Blackburn-Rovers-v-West-Brom.htm)

Fulham v Bolton Wanderers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12667-Fulham-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)

Wigan v Chelsea Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12675-Wigan-v-Chelsea.htm)

Newcastle United v Swansea Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12676-Newcastle-United-v-Swansea.htm)

Wolves v Stoke City Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12679-Wolves-v-Stoke-City.htm)

QPR v Manchester United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12680-QPR-v-Manchester-United.htm)

Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12683-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Sunderland.htm)

Manchester City v Arsenal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12681-Manchester-City-v-Arsenal.htm)

Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12692-Aston-Villa-v-Liverpool.htm)


MY PICKS: Blackburn Rovers-West Brom Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Fulham-Bolton Wanderers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Swansea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Wolves-Stoke City Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
QPR + 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 188Bet (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Manchester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Victor Chandler (3 Units)
Aston Villa-Liverpool Both NOT to Score @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)




December Update: 9-8, + 4.04 Units

NFL Week 15 Picks and Previews

It was a tough week really as teams struggle to cope with the expectation and pressure of trying to reach the post-season.

We also saw some potential big injuries this week as Ben Roethlisberger looked like he had broken his ankle (and any chances Pittsburgh had of returning to the SuperBowl) while the Green Bay Packers will be missing Greg Jennings at least until the end of the regular season.

The best moment, for me at least, was seeing Tom Brady and Bill O'Brien going at it on the sidelines during New England's win over Washington just after Brady threw a pick in the EndZone that would have iced the game http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33V0hSri6BM

Anyone else think O'Brien may have caught the - 7.5 point spread(?)


Week 14 Thoughts
1) New England will not win the AFC with that Defense: I am going to stick my balls on the line and say the Patriots will NOT win the AFC this season. New England are the short-priced favourites to do so, but that Defense stinks so much that I cannot see them beating Pittsburgh or Baltimore in their current shape.


I would have picked Houston to beat them too if Matt Schaub was still under Center, but I cannot believe the layers have the Patriots at the price they do. The only thing going for the Pats is if they can secure home-field advantage, but they have been beaten by the Jets and the Ravens in Foxboro in the last couple of seasons so even that won't be enough for them this year.


The Defense is horrible and cannot stop anybody, while they don't exactly create enough turnovers to cover these deficiencies up like the Green Bay Packers do. The Ravens and Steelers are both capable of controlling the clock against the Pats and both have Defenses that can slow down this Offense so I believe either of those teams would beat New England in January.


2) San Francisco's loss to Arizona could be huge for their future: San Francisco had the inside track to gaining the Number 2 seed in the NFC, achieving a bye and also hosting an opponent, most likely New Orleans, in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.


However, it is all change for them now as they season comes to its conclusion as they now have a level record with New Orleans and 3 games to play but consider this: The 49ers host Pittsburgh and visit Seattle and St Louis, while the Saints visit Minnesota and then host Atlanta and Carolina.


I can see the 49ers losing at least 1 more of their remaining games, most likely in the next 2 weeks, while the Saints could run the table and steal the Number 2 seed.


San Francisco have been looking a little more vulnerable in recent weeks and I would not like their chances in the Mercedes-Benz SuperDome, a venue where the Saints are unbeaten. We all know the Saints are very impressive at home, but they have had a hard time on the road outdoors so the next 3 weeks is huge for both teams.


3) San Diego have left it too late this year: After starting 4-1, I really thought the Chargers were a lock to win the AFC West and return to the Play Offs after missing out last year... Then we saw a 6 game losing run that effectively ended their chances.


The last 2 weeks has seen the Chargers do what they do best- beat up teams in December with a late burst to make the Play Offs. It looked like they were going to be just 1 game behind the leaders in the West, but 'Tebow Time' came to play as Denver somehow beat Chicago when down by 10 and 3 minutes remaining and that means the Chargers are effectively out of the Play Offs again.


Norv Turner is unlikely to return as the team made too many mistakes in their 6 game losing run and we could see a few personnel changes in the off-season, particularly in Defense.


4) NFC Play Off picture has become a little blurry: A couple of weeks ago, it looked like teams like Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta had the Wild Card race locked up between each other, but injuries and bad defeats mean the Play Off picture has become a little blurry.


For a long time, I thought the NFC East winner would be the only representative in the Play Offs, but recent results mean it is possible that BOTH Dallas and the New York Giants could make it in.


New York and Dallas both have a 7-6 record, meaning they are both just 1 game behind the teams in the Wild Card spot, but Detroit have to travel to both Oakland and Green Bay in the last 3 weeks and have not looked like a solid team to win games. If they lose both, and the Giants and Dallas can win 2 of their last 3 games, both could go in at the expense of the Lions.


Every game is important now for these teams as things may look a little clearer after this weekends slate of games.


5) Bonehead play of the week: Marion Barber running out of bounds with under 2 minutes left in the Chicago game at Denver... That gave the Broncos an additional 40 secs to move the ball up the field and score the tying FG that eventually led to an Overtime win.


While Barber has been rightly criticised, what were the Bears thinking in calling an outside run at that time? Surely the call should have been an inside handoff and just ram it up the gut- that way there is no chance the Broncos can see Barber run out of bounds and there is always that chance of breaking a tackle and getting the game winning 1st Down.


That was a terrible decision for San Diego and Oakland in the AFC West, while it gives Chicago a mountain to climb in trying to get into the Play Offs in the NFC... Dumb, dumb, dumb play.

Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers (13-0)
2) New Orleans (10-3): Only team that can hang with the Packers in my opinion.
3) Baltimore Ravens (10-3): Will have to beat the Steelers again if they want to reach the SuperBowl
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
5) New England Patriots (10-3): Not going to go too far with that Defense
6) San Francisco 49ers (10-3): Could be going through a bit of a wobble at the wrong time.
7) Houston Texans (10-3): If they were at full health, they could be the team to beat in the AFC
8) Denver Broncos (8-5): Tebow has inspired this team
9) New York Jets (8-5): Don't look now, but Rex's team is in command of one of the Wild Card berths
10) Atlanta Falcons (8-5)




My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay Packers                          32) Indianapolis Colts
2) New Orleans Saints                          31) St Louis Rams
3) Pittsburgh Steelers                           30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4) Baltimore Ravens                             29) Minnesota Vikings
5) Houston Texans                               28) Cleveland Browns




Week 15 Pick and Previews
As always, I will post my picks in the upcoming days and will update Twitter whenever I have some more picks.


Also, remember we have a staggered schedule this week with a game on Thursday, Saturday and Monday nights and the rest playing on Sunday.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview ( http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12661-Jacksonville-Jaguars-at-Atlanta-Falcons.htm)

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12697-Washington-Redskins-at-New-York-Giants.htm)

Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12702-Green-Bay-Packers-at-Kansas-City-Chiefs.htm)

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12703-New-Orleans-Saints-at-Minnesota-Vikings.htm)

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12705-Seattle-Seahawks-at-Chicago-Bears.htm)

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12706-Tennessee-Titans-at-Indianapolis-Colts.htm)

Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12708-Detroit-Lions-at-Oakland-Raiders.htm)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12715-Pittsburgh-Steelers-at-San-Francisco-49ers.htm)




MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 11 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
New York Giants - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 6 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3 Points @ 1.83 BetFred (1 Unit)
San Diego Chargers + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 BetFred (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)





WEEK 14: 5-6, - 1.09 Units
WEEK 13: 6-3, + 5.54 Units
WEEK 12: 5-3, + 2.87 Units
WEEK 11: 3-7, - 8.26 Units
WEEK 10: 4-6, - 3.74 Units
WEEK 9: 6-2, + 7.04 Units
WEEK 8: 3-5, - 6.44 Units
WEEK 7: 5-4, - 2.61 Units
WEEK 6: 4-4-1, - 2.24 Units
WEEK 5, 5-3, + 3.15 Units

WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units

WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units

WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units

WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units


SEASON UPDATE: 61-60-2, - 12.17 Units