NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Conference Championship (Sunday 26th January)

It has been a remarkable season and we are now just hours away from learning which two teams will be heading to the home of the San Francisco 49ers to compete for the Super Bowl.

Injuries have been a big factor throughout the 2025 season and those continue to have a big impact on the outlook for teams, even this late into the year.

The Denver Broncos lost their starting Quarter Back in the win over the Buffalo Bills, while the Seattle Seahawks have a Quarter Back fighting through the pain. Offensive Linemen and Defensive Linemen absentees can be so important at this time of the season when winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so very important.

Both Championship Games to be played on Sunday are intriguing with the factors around them, but it still feels like the winner of the NFC Championship will be a big favourite to win it all in two weeks time.

The AFC Champion is going to have something to say about that, but the focus has to be on the opponent in front of each team this Sunday and both games look like they can produce drama.

It has been a difficult season for the NFL Picks after a decent last few years, but my thoughts on the Conference Championship Games can be read below.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: There was some controversy attached to the end of the Denver Broncos (15-3) win over the Buffalo Bills with a long debate over whether the road team should have been awarded a catch in Overtime that would have put them in a position to win the game. If the decision on the field had ruled Brandin Cooks down with the ball, there would unlikely have been an overturn on the review, but that is in the books and it is the Broncos who will be hosting the AFC Championship Game as the Number 1 Seed.

Fans would have left the Stadium in buoyant mood, but that would have changed very quickly.

Quarter Back Bo Nix was quickly ruled out for the season having suffered an injury on the penultimate play of the Divisional Round win over the Bills.

All of a sudden, the Denver Broncos are going to be heading into the Conference Championship Game with a backup at the most important position of any sport.

Making it all the more challenging is that Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in the NFL since Week 18 of the 2023 regular season.

Head Coach Sean Payton is backing his Quarter Back to come in and do what is needed for the Denver Broncos and there will be plenty of respect for Stidham on the other sideline considering he was Drafted into the League by the New England Patriots (16-3).

He played under the guidance of Josh McDaniels and that should help the Patriots plan for what they may see from a Quarter Back that is the first since 1972 to have his first start of a season in the Conference Championship Game.

Josh McDaniels will be passing all of the data over to the New England Defensive unit, but he will also be focusing on making sure Drake Maye and company have a good plan to deal with what has been one of the top Defensive units in the NFL.

The Patriots have done just enough Offensively, but the run through to the Championship Round has been based on the performance on the other side of the ball. Drake Maye has had a very strong season at Quarter Back, but his two Playoff appearances this season have been erratic to say the least and he has to make sure he has better control of the football when he is being hit.

Turnovers could be a huge part of the outcome of this AFC Championship Game and so the Quarter Back has to be careful.

He will be looking to lean on the New England rushing attack, which has been operating well, and there looks to be an advantage on the Line of Scrimmage in favour of the Patriots. For much of the season the Broncos have been very good at stopping the run, but they have struggled towards the end of the regular season and into the Playoffs and keeping Drake Maye in front of the chains would give the Number 2 Seed a real advantage.

Third and manageable compared with third and long will be a huge difference for the New England Offensive unit.

Putting Maye in a position where he can make quick throws to keep the chains moving would be a distinct advantage, but holding onto the ball too long will allow the Denver pass rush to have a big impact in the contest. The Patriots Offensive Line have been very good at establishing the run, but the pass blocking has been something of a weakness and Drake Maye will not want to attempt to attack this Denver Secondary with the pocket collapsing around him.

You have to imagine the Broncos Defensive players have been focused this week in producing their absolute best to give the injury hit Offensive unit a boost.

They look capable of at least slowing down the New England Offense, which has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in the two Playoff wins, and that will give Jarrett Stidham an opportunity.

It would not surprise anyone if Sean Payton has a solid plan for his backup, but you have to believe the Broncos are going to want to get behind this Offensive Line and at least make sure they can establish the run.

JK Dobbins looks set to miss out again, which is another blow for the Offense, and the Broncos will have noted how effective this New England Defensive Line have been at playing the run in recent games. They have made things very difficult for the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans and so the game plan may be to get Jarrett Stidham comfortable and ask him to make some quick, easy throws to settle in, especially while New England anticipate plenty of early runs.

Head Coach Mike Vrabel has really put together a strong Defensive unit and they have a team that will feel they can shut down the Broncos.

If they can keep Denver in third and long, the New England Secondary will be full of confidence and belief in their Secondary having made Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud look very ordinary. They have also been turning the ball over with great success in the two Playoff wins, although Jarrett Stidham may be given a bit more protection behind the Denver Offensive Line than either Herbert or Stroud were afforded.

Those Interceptions being created by the Patriots have to be respected and New England do look capable of winning this one on the road.

However, there have only ever been 10 Road Favourites of 4 or more points in the Conference Championship Round and those teams are a perfect imperfect 0-10 against the spread.

Hosts that have been set as the underdog are on a 14-3 run against the spread in the NFL Playoffs over the last decade too.

Good teams do have a habit of stepping up their level to offer as much support as possible to a backup Quarter Back, while Denver are hosting, which should also be a big help.

Most are going to back the New England Patriots against Jarrett Stidham, but this Broncos Defensive unit can make this a low-scoring, competitive affair and that makes the points being given to the hosts appealing. The AFC hosts have tended to be the stronger at covering the spread in the Championship Game and the Denver Broncos will have a point to prove after the injury to Bo Nix and can keep this one close thanks to the Defensive unit going up against Drake Maye and company.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: For the third time this season, the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) and Los Angeles Rams (14-5) face off, but this time with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

If the previous two games are anything to go by, this is going to be an exciting, competitive contest that will come down to the final snap of the ball.

The Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle by 2 points when hosting them earlier in the season, but the most recent game in Week 16 of the regular season saw the Seahawks recover from a big deficit and earn a home win. This ultimately led to them finishing with the Number 1 record in the NFC and is the reason that the Seattle Seahawks host the Championship Game.

You want to know how competitive the games were in the regular season? The Rams had a single point advantage in the two games played and just ONE Offensive yard more than the Seahawks.

Seattle had been favoured when hosting in Week 16 and they are going into the Championship Game as a slightly stronger favourite- they played on Saturday in the Divisional Round and so have an extra day of rest, while the Rams had a very tough road game on Sunday that they could have easily lost in Overtime in frigid temperatures in Chicago.

That has been factored into the spread, while the Seahawks are also holding home advantage, which has been a key to the outcome of the majority of recent Conference Championship Games.

However, things are not exactly going smoothly for Seattle- Quarter Back Sam Darnold is playing through an injury, while Running Back Zach Charbonnet has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury suffered in the blowout of the San Francisco 49ers. There are still some issues on the Offensive Line, even though Charles Cross is back in practice to protect Darnold's blindside, and this is a match up that has been tough for Seattle in two regular season meetings.

Kenneth Walker III had a big outing at Running Back behind a powerful Seattle Offensive Line, but he will have a different test without his partner to come in and give him some time to rest. This week Walker III is also running against the Los Angeles Defensive Line, which is much stronger than the one he was facing last week, although the Seahawks will have confidence they can establish the Running Back.

This looks to be an important factor in the outcome of the game, especially as we are still not sure how healthy Sam Darnold is at Quarter Back- the Divisional Round blowout of the 49ers began very early and so Darnold was not under much pressure to drop back and throw the ball, but it is unlikely to be that comfortable in this game agains the Rams.

Any time Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are in third and long, the Rams pass rush is likely going to put the Quarter Back under significant pressure and that has not always been a position in which Darnold has thrived. There have been holes in the Rams Secondary that have been exploited in this Playoff run, which have been exploited by Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, but Seattle are a run first Offensive unit and the main ambition for Sam Darnold is to avoid giving this game away.

Instead he will be happy to play the field position and lean on a fantastic Seattle Defense that has continued to perform at a top level all season.

In recent games, the Seahawks Defensive Line have proved to be stout at clamping down on the run, while the Secondary have stepped in front of passes and turned the ball over.

However, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams have a potent passing game and talented Receivers who will feel they can break clear of some of the Defenders to be faced and offer up passing lanes down the field. Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a finger issue and Sean McVay admitted he did not give his Offensive unit the best game plan to deal with the Chicago Bears, but both are expected to be improved on Sunday.

Giving the Rams most confidence is the fact that they put up almost 600 Offensive yards and Matthew Stafford had over 450 passing yards in the narrow loss in this Stadium in Week 16.

They did blow that lead, but it will offer Stafford and company encouragement about what they can do in the Championship Game and he will also have Davante Adams available for this one. That gives the Rams another crease on the Offensive side of the ball and Los Angeles do have a very good balance in the team.

If the spread moved to the key number 3, it would be an easy choice to back the Los Angeles Rams in what should be another game that comes down to the wire.

On the current line, the Rams still look worthy of being selected with the points they are being given, but it could come down to a final Field Goal and it is a dangerous line.

NFC home teams are just 8-10 against the spread in the Championship Game, while home teams facing Divisional rivals are just 13-17 against the spread.

Blowing out the San Francisco 49ers will have caught the eye, but everything went right for the Seahawks from the opening kick off and NFL teams that have won home games by at least 35 points are 14-26-1 against the spread in the next game played.

There has been so little between the teams throughout the course of the season that it feels unlikely to be much different on Sunday so the points being given to the Los Angeles Rams looks the best play.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 50-65, - 20.31 Units (115 Units Staked, - 17.66% Yield)

NFL Play Offs Championship Game Picks 2017 (January 22nd)

We are down to the final three games of the NFL season and this weekend we will find out which two teams are heading to Houston to compete for the Super Bowl in two weeks time.

Both AFC and NFC Championship Games look very good on paper and I think both will be very good on the field. With the spreads the way they are, I do think both underdogs will play a big part in their games, but overall I just hope there is a lot of drama like we saw in the Dallas Cowboys versus Green Bay Packers game last week.

If any of these games are better than that one, we are in for a treat on Championship Weekend.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The NFC Championship Game is the final game to be played at the Georgia Dome with the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Green Bay Packers. Both had impressive wins in the Divisional Round and the Green Bay Packers are looking for a repeat of their last Super Bowl when they ran the gauntlet of road games in the Play Offs before a Super Bowl win.

They are arguably the hottest team going into the Play Offs with improvements on both sides of the ball and the Green Bay Packers won't fear anyone having knocked off the Number 1 Seed in the NFC in the Dallas Cowboys. One concern might be the flu bug that has swept through the Packers locker room over the last week which saw Aaron Rodgers a little sore too, but at this stage of the season there cannot be any excuses.

An injury to Devante Adams was a blow to the Green Bay Packers last week and he is going to be held out of practice all week to make sure he can go in this one. Adams might be listed as 'questionable' but he will play, although it is less likely that Jordy Nelson can return from the rib injury he suffered in the win over the New York Giants which saw him miss the win over Dallas last week.

As much of a blow as it would be for the Packers to miss Adams, they still have Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and he has shown he can extend plays and make others around him look better than they are. That throw to Jared Cook which helped the Packers win the game last week is going to be one that is replayed down the years if Green Bay can go on and win a second Super Bowl with Rodgers at Quarter Back and I don't think there are too many in his position who can make that throw.

The Falcons Defensive Line have managed to find some pressure up front which rattled Russell Wilson in the win over Seattle last week, but Green Bay's Offensive Line have protected Rodgers well enough. There is no doubt that Rodgers reads Defenses as well as anyone does and he is capable of moving in and out of the pocket to find the time to make his throws downfield.

That should negate the Atlanta pass rush to a point and I would expect Rodgers and the Packers to have more success against this Secondary that Seattle seemingly could. Moving the ball shouldn't be a big problem, but Green Bay could be under pressure to make sure they finish drives with Touchdowns rather than Field Goals if they are going to win this game.

Scoring points is going to be important for the Green Bay Packers as their banged up Defensive unit try to slow down the best Offense in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons perhaps don't receive the same plaudits as others because they are marshalled by Matt Ryan, a Quarter Back with two Play Off wins in his career, but there is no doubt he is playing at a high level.

Ryan will be ably supported by Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman as both players are capable of running the ball effectively and have a good match up here. I would expect the Falcons to be able to establish the run as the Packers will be concerned in stopping the pass and both Freeman and Coleman are also threats coming out of the backfield to make catches and big gains in open space.

Julio Jones is a little banged up, but the Wide Receiver will play on Sunday and he will be a match up nightmare for the Green Bay Secondary with his size and athleticism. Even a limited Jones will take some of the attention away from capable Receivers and the Falcons should have plenty of success moving the ball and scoring points too.

A key factor that can be hard to determine is going to be turnovers with Fumbles and Interceptions to earn extra possessions likely to make all the difference in the Championship Game. You can't really predict with confidence which team will win the turnover margin, but the Packers Defensive unit have looked stronger than their play by making sure they do earn the turnovers to give Aaron Rodgers a chance to pull away.

Both Quarter Backs have looked after the ball pretty well, but you have to favour Rodgers in the clutch with his experience and the way he is playing at the moment. He might not be able to pull Green Bay over the hump as he needs the Defensive unit to step up, but Rodgers can make sure this is competitive, and perhaps as close as the one point win for the Atlanta Falcons in their regular season meeting here.

The illness that has spread through the Green Bay camp has to be a worry as well as the banged up Receivers, but I like Aaron Rodgers with the points to make the plays to keep this one within the number.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Pick: I have no affiliation with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the only reason I wanted them to get into the Play Offs and progress to the AFC Championship Game is because I feel they have the best chance to give the New England Patriots a competitive game before the Super Bowl. I do dislike the Patriots as a Divisional rival to the Miami Dolphins, but anyone who doesn't respect what Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been able to do for their franchise has to not be a true fan of the NFL.

The New England Patriots are the 'gold standard' of the NFL according to Ben Roethlisberger and any team that beats them will be a genuine Super Bowl contender. They are a big favourite to see off the Pittsburgh Steelers against whom they have a very good recent record, but I do think the road team can test the Patriots more than most.

The Patriots Defensive statistics are hard to get a real feel for because they have not exactly played the best teams in the NFL this season. The question is then whether the Patriots as good as the stats say, or whether they are a product of the level of opponent they have seen and I think it is something in between both extremes.

The Defensive Line is very good and they can give Le'Veon Bell something to think about despite how well the Running Back is playing. Bell has been creating new moves for Backs in the NFL and he is arguably the best player in his position and I do think he has been aided by a very good Pittsburgh Offensive Line that should open some holes for him.

Bell is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and makes some plays from there and he has been a key to the Pittsburgh run through the Play Offs. It has eased the pressure on Ben Roethlisberger although the Quarter Back won't be happy with his own play as turnovers have been an issue for him. Big Ben has to be careful with the ball in this one as losing the turnover battle will likely mean the end of the season for the Steelers even if he has a very good target in Antonio Brown to throw to down the field.

It does feel like Pittsburgh are going to be able to move the ball as Brock Osweiler had success last week despite his own limitations at Quarter Back. Roethlisberger is much better and should have the time to make his plays especially if Bell is proving to be a threat coming out of the backfield.

That means it will be up to Tom Brady and the New England Offense to try and match the output from the Steelers and Brady has to be a lot better than he was in the Divisional Round. Brady was guilty of two bad Interceptions which kept the Houston Texans alive in that game despite being clearly second best and it does have to be said that the whole New England performance was a little flat against an overmatched opponent.

You have to believe Brady is going to be much more focused on Sunday against a much better opponent, but the Steelers Defensive unit have been improved over the course of the season. Historically Brady has bamboozled the Defense of the Steelers, but this current group have managed to get a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back down the stretch and Brady has shown he can be rattled when Defenders are bringing him down.

The Pittsburgh Defensive Line have also shown improvement over the last couple of weeks in the Play Offs so they will feel they can slow down ex-Steeler LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis who had a huge game last week. Lewis may be more of a problem as a pass catching Running Back, but Pittsburgh have been fast around the line of scrimmage which has also helped protect the Secondary.

Brady should be helped by an establish running game from Pittsburgh, but he may have to loosen things up front by making a few more throws earlier in the game. That will allow the Steelers to try and get their pass rush ramped up, while the Secondary have made some big plays during games to shift momentum.

This has all the makings of another close game between teams who will feel they can score the points which will take them to the Super Bowl. The 'Killer B's' of the Pittsburgh Steelers all have to be at their best for the upset, but the Steelers might have been the team that matched up best with New England in the entire Conference and showed their character in winning at Kansas City last week.

Taking the points with the underdog in what could be a close game looks the best way forward and I think the Pittsburgh Steelers can do that. I just hope Ben Roethlisberger has his cleanest game in weeks and avoids the turnovers which could allow New England to pull away, but I will look for the two-time Super Bowl to show his experience and make this another competitive Championship Game on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.5% Yield)
Wild Card: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.5% Yield)
Week 17: 5-2, + 5.36 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.29% Yield)
Week 16: 2-4, - 4.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 15: 6-1, + 9.06 Units (14 Units Staked, + 64.71% Yield)
Week 14: 4-5, - 2.36 Units (18 Units Staked, - 13.11% Yield)
Week 13: 4-3, + 1.62 Units (14 Units Staked, + 11.57% Yield)
Week 12: 6-5, + 1.46 Units (22 Units Staked, + 6.64% Yield)
Week 11: 3-4, - 2.54 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.14% Yield)
Week 10: 2-6, - 8.46 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.88% Yield)
Week 9: 5-2-1, + 5.54 Units (16 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 8: 5-2, + 5.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Week 7: 5-3, + 3.36 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21% Yield)
Week 6: 3-3, - 0.46 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 5: 2-3-1, - 2.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 19.67% Yield)
Week 4: 5-5, + 0.26 Units (19 Units Staked, + 1.37% Yield)
Week 3: 2-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Season 2016: 72-63-4, + 8.22 Units (274 Units Staked, + 1.03% Yield)

NFL Conference Championship Play Off Picks 2016 (Sunday 24th January)

After a week in which all of the road teams won their Play Off games, the Divisional Round saw all of the home teams win.

You can't say there have been too many upsets in the post-season so far with all of the games being won by the favourites aside from the Green Bay win in Washington when the home team were favoured by a single point.

Now we have reached the Conference Championship Games and this time we have one small home favourite and one small home underdog as the Number 1 Seeds host the Number 2 Seeds in both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

I have to say I am looking forward to both games and I have picks from both.


New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos stole the Number 1 Seed in the AFC from under the New England Patriots' noses, but I don't think it was ever a big concern for Bill Belichick to host the Championship Game. That was particularly the case with the injuries New England had been dealing with in the final two weeks of the regular season, but they are a lot healthier now and will be seeking revenge for a loss here in the regular season.

It hasn't been a familiar position for the New England Patriots in recent years as their AFC Championship Games have mainly been held at home during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The Patriots haven't really enjoyed the last two times they have had to travel for the AFC Championship Game as they have lost both of those, ironically to the Quarter Back they will be facing on Sunday.

Peyton Manning helped the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots here two seasons ago and was also Quarter Back of the Indianapolis Colts when they beat New England at home in 2007. However, I don't think it is really making any grand statement to say that Manning is not the same as even the Quarter Back that played in the Championship Game two seasons ago and his career in Denver is winding down.

He would love to go out on a high, but Manning will have to be better than he was in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers when only a busted decision from the referees helped Denver come back and win that game. Manning was somehow allowed to get up from a 'self Sack' and then throw the ball for a 40 yard gain, but it was mainly a poor passing day for the future Hall of Fame player, while his Receivers haven't helped with too many drops.

I don't want to be overly critical of Peyton Manning who has had a wonderful career, but I am not sure he has enough to lead Denver to a win in this one. The Patriots have a lot of respect for Manning too, but they will use a fierce pass rush to rattle the Quarter Back and make sure he does not have the time to throw the ball to his Receivers down the field.

The deep ball is gone anyway, but Manning might have some success if the quick passes can be caught by his Receivers and that might be the best way they can get the running game established. Manning is more reliant on the likes of CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman than he has been on other Running Backs over the last few years as he can't move the chains with his arm alone, but the New England Patriots will clamp down on the run like the Steelers did in the Divisional Round and will almost dare Manning to beat them with his arm.

There will be a lot of coverage about Peyton Manning in this one, no less so because he is facing his old adversary Tom Brady who is still playing up to the level he has set for himself. Brady will be very glad that he has got all of his Offensive weapons back and he has had one look at the Denver Defensive unit already this season and has the likes of Julian Edelman in the starting line up this time.

Brady played well in the first game considering the supporting cast, but that shouldn't be an issue this week. The likes of Edelman and Rob Gronkowski create match up problems no matter where they line up, but Denver will have faith in the Defense that has been so important to their success all season.

It will be up to Brady to make the plays because the New England Patriots are not going to have a lot of success lining up and traditionally running the ball. This is the one area that Denver have been strong through the season and it was a big hit against Fitzgerald Toussaint when he tried running the ball that became the key play of their Divisional Round win over Pittsburgh.

Now Josh McDaniels won't want to drop Brady back and have him throw fifty times a game, but I can see New England using a number of players similar to Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground. That is getting Danny Amendola, Brandon LeFell and Julian Edelman taking some end arounds to find themselves in space, while Brady will be happy to make the short passes to keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots through the game.

As much as Denver have enjoyed getting the pressure on the Quarter Backs they have faced, it has been possible to throw the ball against them, while New England's Offensive Line is healthier now. I expect they will give Brady just enough time to make his plays and I do think it will be difficult for Peyton Manning to keep up barring his Defense giving him a couple of short fields with turnovers or big Special Teams plays.

The Patriots will have to change some recent history as eight of the last nine AFC Championship Games have been won by the team hosting. However, favourites in the Conference Championship Game of three points or fewer have a very strong 11-3 record against the spread going back to 1986.

One area New England have thrived in is the revenging a same season loss and they have gone 12-4 against the spread under Bill Belichick in that regards. Add in the fact that teams that won the last regular season game are just 7-11-1 against the spread in the last couple of years in post-season games.

 I do think New England will have learned a lot about Denver from their first game and it is hard to see Peyton Manning generating enough points to win this game unless Tom Brady turns the ball over two or three times.

New England are an experienced bunch and I think they are looking healthier while I can see them earning revenge over Denver by beating them in the AFC Championship Game at the same venue they were beaten by the Broncos two seasons ago.


Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was the game that I always felt was most deserving of the NFC Championship Game and I hope the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are over their nervy finishes to the Divisional Round.

The Panthers were very close to blowing their 31-0 half time lead to Seattle who might have won the game if they could have pushed it to Overtime with all the momentum behind them. On the other side of the coin was the Arizona Cardinals giving up a Hail Mary pass that forced their game into Overtime before a couple of huge plays from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald won it for the Cardinals against the Green Bay Packers.

Carson Palmer had a horrible start to the game with the Packers as he couldn't shake the nerves that come for a player that has had zero Play Off success before last week. That win in the Divisional Round should loosen Palmer up and he and Bruce Arians must have been excited to see what the Seahawks were able to do when they were forced to pass in the second half to get back into the game.

It is not the first time the Panthers have allowed a furious comeback this season- the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants both rallied before ultimately coming up short as Seattle did last week when the time, rather than the Carolina Defense, beat them. This is now a Carolina Secondary that have given up over 300 passing yards per game in their last three games and face an Arizona team that love throwing the ball and are very successful at doing that.

There will be some pressure on Palmer from the pass rush that Carolina generate and he has to be aware of trying to take away the mistakes that have blighted him in recent games. This is a ball-hawking team that looks to create turnover and every possession is going to be key for Arizona to pull the upset.

Bruce Arians will know his team matches up well Offensively with Carolina even if it is unlikely that Arizona will be able to run the ball effectively, but he should also have faith that the Defensive unit can slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers. Newton has been immense when you think of what he has been working with, while Jonathan Stewart looked strong after missing a couple of games through injury.

I do think Carolina can establish the run in this game which is vital for them if they are going to win this game. Both Stewart and Mike Tolbert will be able to find space against Arizona who have struggled against the run in recent games, although that could be down to facing three very good passers and so losing the focus.

Either way  I do think Carolina will have some joy running the ball with Newton using the read-option to good effect, but the key will be whether they can make the big plays through the air which has been a feature of their games all through the season. One aspect where Arizona have improved in each passing week is getting some sort of pass rush generated, although getting to Cam Newton is far from easy, but Arizona also know they have a Secondary that can shut down Receivers.

It is a shame that Tyrann Mathieu is out for the Cardinals, but this is still a team that has used the pressure up front to make the Secondary look even more effective. It has been a struggle at times for Carolina to make the plays through the air that they would like to, especially in recent games, and I think Arizona may have learnt something from the way Seattle approached the second half to slow down what the Panthers wanted to do.

As soon as this game was set I knew I wanted to back the Arizona Cardinals if they were given at least three points here, even though the statistic I pointed out in the Denver-New England pick points to a trend that would favour the home favourites. Unlike the AFC Championship Game, hosting the NFC Championship Game hasn't meant all that in recent seasons with those teams going 4-4 straight up, but they were 2-4 before Seattle's two consecutive wins in the last two seasons although just 1-1 against the spread in those wins.

Carolina have been very dominant as the home underdog of three points or fewer as I pointed out when backing them to beat Seattle, but this Arizona team is 15-7 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons, while they are 4-0 against the spread when set as the road underdog of three points or fewer.

I also think the time of the game is significant for Arizona as it will match what they might be used to on the West Coast even though this game is played in Carolina. It could be cold which is an issue for an indoor team playing outdoors, but I think Arizona earn some revenge for their Play Off loss to the Panthers last season when injuries bit them hard.

This should be a really fun game to watch but I think enough factors are pointing to the Cardinals in this one and I will take the points being offered.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 3 Points @ 2.o0 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

NFL Play Offs Conference Championship Game Picks 2015 (January 18)

After the controversy during the Dallas Cowboys win over the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round of the weekend, the NFL would have been hoping fans around the world would have focused on the games on Divisional Round weekend.

All seemed to be going well for the League after a truly classic Play Off game on Saturday when the New England Patriots just about outlasted the Baltimore Ravens, but it all turned around on Sunday in arguably the biggest game of the weekend.

The Dallas Cowboys were again involved, but this time a 'bad rule' prevented them having the chance to beat the Green Bay Packers and move into the NFC Conference Championship Game. Everyone would have called Dez Bryant's amazing play a catch if you were hanging out and in all definitions it seemed to be the case, but the rule states he has to maintain position going through the ground or make a 'football play' and what would have been an all time great play was overturned.

Dez Bryant's reaction said it all and it looks like the backlash from the game means that the rule is likely to be made more objective and cleared up from the 'grey area' it currently stands in.

Like last week, the Dallas Cowboys weren't guaranteed a win if the catch had stood, but it was a play that would have given them a very good chance. Dallas still had to score the TD and then would have gone for two points to try and extend the lead to three points over the Packers.

That would have still left Aaron Rodgers and the Packers around 3 minutes with three Time Outs to either score a tying Field Goal, if Dallas succeeded in going for two points, or they could have scored a Touchdown/kicked the winning Field Goal if they trailed by a single point.

However, I would have loved to have seen the team moving through to the Conference Championship Game because of what they did on the field rather than a 'bad rule' or the officials making the big, but ultimately wrong, call.


I mentioned the New England game against the Baltimore Ravens which became an instant classic after the Patriots became the first team to win a Play Off game having trailed by 14 points on two occasions. The story out of the game was the Offensive formations that New England used in the second half when only sending out four Offensive Linemen and then declaring one of their Receivers as ineligible on the play.

It infuriated John Harbaugh who took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty while complaining to the officials and looks to be another issue the NFL will have to deal with this off-season.


The Seattle Seahawks comfortably dismissed their 'attractive cousins' from Carolina and are the clear favourites to win the Super Bowl for the second season in succession. They are a big favourite to beat the Green Bay Packers this weekend and I would expect the Seahawks to be laying at least 3.5 points on a neutral field against either New England or Indianapolis if they get to the Super Bowl.


That's right- Indianapolis! I didn't predict the Indianapolis Colts to go into Denver and beat the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but it has since been revealed that Peyton Manning was indeed limited by his thigh injury.

Manning's future has been left up in the air, but John Elway didn't wait too long to make changes after firing (well they claim mutual consent) John Fox as Head Coach and allowing the Coaching Staff to all explore their options. The Broncos also have some big decisions to make concerning which Free Agents they are going to extend, especially with Demaryius and Julius Thomas both needing extensions, while Manning is going to be involved in the search for a new Head Coach even if he decides retirement is the way forward.

The Denver Broncos fanbase must be a little concerned that they have missed their window to win a Super Bowl with Manning at Quarter Back and there could be a lot of changes at this team in time for the new season. It could shift the power in the AFC going into the new season if Manning does indeed retire and I think there are going to be a lot of questions to be answered over the coming weeks by the front office beginning with the announcement of a new Head Coach.


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC Championship Game will be the first one played this Sunday and I think most would accept it would have a lot more potential to be a classic if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers were coming in healthy. Rodgers couldn't disguise his limited movement on an injured calf last weekend against Dallas and, despite saying it probably feels better than a week ago, the Quarter Back has to have more than he did in the Divisional Round game to give the Packers any kind of chance in this one.

The Cowboys got some pressure on Rodgers, but he was mainly well protected by his Offensive Line and that allowed him to pick apart a Cowboys Defense that has given up a lot of yards this season. It will be tough to replicate that success against the Seattle Secondary that will have Byron Maxwell back at Corner Back opposite Richard Sherman.

Seattle can get a lot of pressure up front with a four man rush and the Green Bay Offensive Line will be tested to the fullest if Rodgers is unable to step up and perhaps scramble a little more than last weekend. The pressure without blitzing means there are less spaces to exploit in the Secondary, but Rodgers will at least be boosted by two more weapons he has this week than he did in Week 1.

For starters, Davonte Adams has become more comfortable in the Offense and being matched across from Sherman won't mean Rodgers automatically shies away from one side of the field as he did in Week 1. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson remain key Receivers, but Richard Rodgers could be another new factor at Tight End.

Eddie Lacy and James Starks will find it tough to keep Rodgers in winnable downs and distance as Seattle's Defense is very strong against the run, but the Carolina Panthers showed it can be possible to move the chains on the ground. Keeping Rodgers in third and short will give their Quarter Back a chance to make plays and Green Bay have to be excited about some of the success that Cam Newton enjoyed in the Divisional Round here last weekend.

Lacy and Starks MAY have success, but Marshawn Lynch is almost a lock to be able to punish the Green Bay Defense on the ground. Max Unger looks like he won't miss this game which is huge for the Seattle Seahawks who virtually average a Touchdown more per game with the Center in the line up, while Lynch has also been a lot more effective when Unger plays. Lynch had over 100 yards and 2 Touchdowns when Seattle met Green Bay in Week 1 and he should be able to follow DeMarco Murray to rip some big gains on the ground.

If the Packers can make some Defensive stands, Russell Wilson is also a threat for the Seattle Seahawks when it comes to running the ball and could become the latest mobile Quarter Back to pose problems for the Packers Defense. It is Colin Kaepernick that has ended Green Bay's last two seasons in the Play Offs and Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and happy to run the ball for First Downs or scores.

Green Bay may want to dial up the blitz to try and force Wilson to get rid of the ball quicker than he would like- Seattle have allowed a lot of pressure on their Quarter Back through the season and Green Bay have an effective pass rush which could be their best avenue of success. However, the Packers would prefer to have made some stops on Lynch to set up third and long before they decide to bring these packages into play as Wilson could take off for the First Downs if in man coverage behind the blitz.

Wilson has also been very efficient with the ball when it comes to throwing despite not having the 'big name' Receivers that the NFL fans will be used to hearing. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson are all capable Receivers, but the Green Bay Secondary is a ball-hawking unit that will believe they can make the big plays to try and slow the Seahawks down.

Both teams will be confident they have the game plan to win this one and move to the Super Bowl where they will likely be favoured to win. The injury to Aaron Rodgers calf is really bothersome and Seattle have a very strong home record since Russell Wilson was Drafted, going 20-7 against the spread in those games including 2-0 straight up and against the spread against Green Bay.

Green Bay have neither been a good underdog (2-10 against the spread over last three seasons) nor on the road (10-14 against the spread last three seasons), but I think the Packers are getting too many points this week. They have an Offense that can score points and I like the earlier start which may suit them a little more than a late evening game on the West Coast.

It just seems like too many points to be giving a team like the Green Bay Packers and that is backed up by the trend that an underdog being given 7 or more points in a Championship Game are 9-3 against the spread over the last 18 seasons.

Another trend backing the Packers is the fact that teams who return to play a game at the same venue they have already been beaten at are 28-14 against the spread when that opponent is not from the same Division.

Lacy and Starks could get something going on the ground and I think Green Bay have more weapons than when they played here earlier this season. Rodgers' injury means I can only back this for minimum stakes, while Seattle could pull away as they did against the Carolina Panthers last week if they can establish the run and wear the Packers down. However, I think Green Bay will make enough plays against the tough Seattle Defense to keep this closer than most will anticipate and I like taking the points in this game.


Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC Championship Game is another repeat of one we have seen in a prime time spot earlier this season, but this one won't be taking place at the home of the Indianapolis Colts. This time it is the New England Patriots who will be hosting the Colts in Foxboro and there will be plenty of headlines written about Andrew Luck facing another sure-fire Hall of Fame Quarter Back in Tom Brady after last weekend.

With Brady and Peyton Manning dominating on the AFC side of the NFL for a number of years, Andrew Luck could be in a rare position of beating both in consecutive weeks on the road as he looks for a 'passing of the torch' moment. Getting to the Super Bowl would also vindicate Jim Irsay's decision to draft Luck and allow Manning to move on.

Luck had an effective game against the Denver Broncos last week but the stars of the show were the Defense who held the Broncos to 13 points. Peyton Manning was said to be suffering with a severe enough injury to make me wonder whether that was a real factor in this Defensive performance put forward by the Colts, especially as they had not only lost, but been blown out by a number of the better teams they have faced.

That includes a huge home loss to the New England Patriots, but Luck might feel better with the emergence of Dan Herron who has provided a running game to complement the passing. Trent Richardson is officially a bust in Indianapolis having been a healthy scratch last week, but Herron has proved the Colts can establish the run without him and he is also an effective Receiver coming out of the backfield.

New England's Defense has played the run well for the most part this season and they have a player like Jamie Collins who seems to make plays all over the field from his position at Linebacker. Darrelle Revis must have been running 'Revis Island' on a minimum staff last week as he could not handle the Baltimore Receivers, but the Corner Back is better than he showed and it might be difficult for Indianapolis to consistently move the chains.

The Patriots should get a better pass rush than the demoralised Denver Broncos managed, while I do think it would be foolish to ignore the fact the Colts only scored 24 points. Luck also turned the ball over twice in that game and these are areas where New England will look to thrive this weekend.

Last week the Colts also looked to dare Peyton Manning to throw the ball, but that might have been down to the fact that they were not convinced he was 100% healthy and that isn't the case this week. Daring Tom Brady to do that will give Indianapolis match up problems against Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, and that will open up the Colts to the New England ground attack which hurt them so badly when the teams met earlier this season.

Vontae Davis can take away one of the Receivers New England will be running, but this is an Offense that found the adjustments to beat Baltimore and I don't think the Colts Defense is as good as it showed.

Jonas Gray may not be the featured Running Back in this one, but his 200 rushing yards i the first game between these teams has to be a concern for Indianapolis. LeGarrette Blount is more of a power runner than Gray, but he could take advantage of running lanes that may open up if Brady shows he has a lot more in the tank than Manning had last weekend.

I think the Patriots are the right side in this one and I am surprised that they are actually favoured by a full Field Goal less than Denver went off against Indianapolis last weekend. Even the opening line that the Broncos had was more than what the Patriots have been given and I do think too much stock has been put into the Colts win last weekend. Andrew Luck played well in Denver, but also made some mistakes, and playing outdoors is going to be tough for him, especially if it remains cold in the north east of the United States.

New England have also blasted Indianapolis in their 3 games since Andrew Luck was drafted by the Colts and all of those wins have come by at least 21 points including in the Play offs here last season. Tom Brady will have heard all the talk about Luck after his win over Peyton Manning's Denver and that should inspire a typically big performance from the Quarter Back in this spot.

The Indianapolis Colts Defense looked better thanks to the injury Manning played through and I also think Luck is still good for a couple of mistakes against the best teams. I also expect Darrelle Revis to have a bounce back game at Corner Back and perhaps help himself to a key Interception at some point.

There are some trends that really favour Indianapolis, but I think New England are the better team and can cover this number thanks to a couple of adjustments made by Bill Belichick at half time. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last 5 Conference Championship Games, but this number remains too low as far as I am concerned and the Patriots should book their place in Arizona in two weeks time.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Divisional: 3-1, + 3.76 Units
Wild Card: 2-2, + 0.90 Units
Week 17: 5-3, + 2.55 Units
Week 16: 5-6, - 3.55 Units
Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 75-79-2, - 8.24 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units