NFL Play Offs Conference Championship Game Picks 2015 (January 18)

After the controversy during the Dallas Cowboys win over the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round of the weekend, the NFL would have been hoping fans around the world would have focused on the games on Divisional Round weekend.

All seemed to be going well for the League after a truly classic Play Off game on Saturday when the New England Patriots just about outlasted the Baltimore Ravens, but it all turned around on Sunday in arguably the biggest game of the weekend.

The Dallas Cowboys were again involved, but this time a 'bad rule' prevented them having the chance to beat the Green Bay Packers and move into the NFC Conference Championship Game. Everyone would have called Dez Bryant's amazing play a catch if you were hanging out and in all definitions it seemed to be the case, but the rule states he has to maintain position going through the ground or make a 'football play' and what would have been an all time great play was overturned.

Dez Bryant's reaction said it all and it looks like the backlash from the game means that the rule is likely to be made more objective and cleared up from the 'grey area' it currently stands in.

Like last week, the Dallas Cowboys weren't guaranteed a win if the catch had stood, but it was a play that would have given them a very good chance. Dallas still had to score the TD and then would have gone for two points to try and extend the lead to three points over the Packers.

That would have still left Aaron Rodgers and the Packers around 3 minutes with three Time Outs to either score a tying Field Goal, if Dallas succeeded in going for two points, or they could have scored a Touchdown/kicked the winning Field Goal if they trailed by a single point.

However, I would have loved to have seen the team moving through to the Conference Championship Game because of what they did on the field rather than a 'bad rule' or the officials making the big, but ultimately wrong, call.


I mentioned the New England game against the Baltimore Ravens which became an instant classic after the Patriots became the first team to win a Play Off game having trailed by 14 points on two occasions. The story out of the game was the Offensive formations that New England used in the second half when only sending out four Offensive Linemen and then declaring one of their Receivers as ineligible on the play.

It infuriated John Harbaugh who took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty while complaining to the officials and looks to be another issue the NFL will have to deal with this off-season.


The Seattle Seahawks comfortably dismissed their 'attractive cousins' from Carolina and are the clear favourites to win the Super Bowl for the second season in succession. They are a big favourite to beat the Green Bay Packers this weekend and I would expect the Seahawks to be laying at least 3.5 points on a neutral field against either New England or Indianapolis if they get to the Super Bowl.


That's right- Indianapolis! I didn't predict the Indianapolis Colts to go into Denver and beat the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but it has since been revealed that Peyton Manning was indeed limited by his thigh injury.

Manning's future has been left up in the air, but John Elway didn't wait too long to make changes after firing (well they claim mutual consent) John Fox as Head Coach and allowing the Coaching Staff to all explore their options. The Broncos also have some big decisions to make concerning which Free Agents they are going to extend, especially with Demaryius and Julius Thomas both needing extensions, while Manning is going to be involved in the search for a new Head Coach even if he decides retirement is the way forward.

The Denver Broncos fanbase must be a little concerned that they have missed their window to win a Super Bowl with Manning at Quarter Back and there could be a lot of changes at this team in time for the new season. It could shift the power in the AFC going into the new season if Manning does indeed retire and I think there are going to be a lot of questions to be answered over the coming weeks by the front office beginning with the announcement of a new Head Coach.


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC Championship Game will be the first one played this Sunday and I think most would accept it would have a lot more potential to be a classic if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers were coming in healthy. Rodgers couldn't disguise his limited movement on an injured calf last weekend against Dallas and, despite saying it probably feels better than a week ago, the Quarter Back has to have more than he did in the Divisional Round game to give the Packers any kind of chance in this one.

The Cowboys got some pressure on Rodgers, but he was mainly well protected by his Offensive Line and that allowed him to pick apart a Cowboys Defense that has given up a lot of yards this season. It will be tough to replicate that success against the Seattle Secondary that will have Byron Maxwell back at Corner Back opposite Richard Sherman.

Seattle can get a lot of pressure up front with a four man rush and the Green Bay Offensive Line will be tested to the fullest if Rodgers is unable to step up and perhaps scramble a little more than last weekend. The pressure without blitzing means there are less spaces to exploit in the Secondary, but Rodgers will at least be boosted by two more weapons he has this week than he did in Week 1.

For starters, Davonte Adams has become more comfortable in the Offense and being matched across from Sherman won't mean Rodgers automatically shies away from one side of the field as he did in Week 1. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson remain key Receivers, but Richard Rodgers could be another new factor at Tight End.

Eddie Lacy and James Starks will find it tough to keep Rodgers in winnable downs and distance as Seattle's Defense is very strong against the run, but the Carolina Panthers showed it can be possible to move the chains on the ground. Keeping Rodgers in third and short will give their Quarter Back a chance to make plays and Green Bay have to be excited about some of the success that Cam Newton enjoyed in the Divisional Round here last weekend.

Lacy and Starks MAY have success, but Marshawn Lynch is almost a lock to be able to punish the Green Bay Defense on the ground. Max Unger looks like he won't miss this game which is huge for the Seattle Seahawks who virtually average a Touchdown more per game with the Center in the line up, while Lynch has also been a lot more effective when Unger plays. Lynch had over 100 yards and 2 Touchdowns when Seattle met Green Bay in Week 1 and he should be able to follow DeMarco Murray to rip some big gains on the ground.

If the Packers can make some Defensive stands, Russell Wilson is also a threat for the Seattle Seahawks when it comes to running the ball and could become the latest mobile Quarter Back to pose problems for the Packers Defense. It is Colin Kaepernick that has ended Green Bay's last two seasons in the Play Offs and Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and happy to run the ball for First Downs or scores.

Green Bay may want to dial up the blitz to try and force Wilson to get rid of the ball quicker than he would like- Seattle have allowed a lot of pressure on their Quarter Back through the season and Green Bay have an effective pass rush which could be their best avenue of success. However, the Packers would prefer to have made some stops on Lynch to set up third and long before they decide to bring these packages into play as Wilson could take off for the First Downs if in man coverage behind the blitz.

Wilson has also been very efficient with the ball when it comes to throwing despite not having the 'big name' Receivers that the NFL fans will be used to hearing. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson are all capable Receivers, but the Green Bay Secondary is a ball-hawking unit that will believe they can make the big plays to try and slow the Seahawks down.

Both teams will be confident they have the game plan to win this one and move to the Super Bowl where they will likely be favoured to win. The injury to Aaron Rodgers calf is really bothersome and Seattle have a very strong home record since Russell Wilson was Drafted, going 20-7 against the spread in those games including 2-0 straight up and against the spread against Green Bay.

Green Bay have neither been a good underdog (2-10 against the spread over last three seasons) nor on the road (10-14 against the spread last three seasons), but I think the Packers are getting too many points this week. They have an Offense that can score points and I like the earlier start which may suit them a little more than a late evening game on the West Coast.

It just seems like too many points to be giving a team like the Green Bay Packers and that is backed up by the trend that an underdog being given 7 or more points in a Championship Game are 9-3 against the spread over the last 18 seasons.

Another trend backing the Packers is the fact that teams who return to play a game at the same venue they have already been beaten at are 28-14 against the spread when that opponent is not from the same Division.

Lacy and Starks could get something going on the ground and I think Green Bay have more weapons than when they played here earlier this season. Rodgers' injury means I can only back this for minimum stakes, while Seattle could pull away as they did against the Carolina Panthers last week if they can establish the run and wear the Packers down. However, I think Green Bay will make enough plays against the tough Seattle Defense to keep this closer than most will anticipate and I like taking the points in this game.


Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC Championship Game is another repeat of one we have seen in a prime time spot earlier this season, but this one won't be taking place at the home of the Indianapolis Colts. This time it is the New England Patriots who will be hosting the Colts in Foxboro and there will be plenty of headlines written about Andrew Luck facing another sure-fire Hall of Fame Quarter Back in Tom Brady after last weekend.

With Brady and Peyton Manning dominating on the AFC side of the NFL for a number of years, Andrew Luck could be in a rare position of beating both in consecutive weeks on the road as he looks for a 'passing of the torch' moment. Getting to the Super Bowl would also vindicate Jim Irsay's decision to draft Luck and allow Manning to move on.

Luck had an effective game against the Denver Broncos last week but the stars of the show were the Defense who held the Broncos to 13 points. Peyton Manning was said to be suffering with a severe enough injury to make me wonder whether that was a real factor in this Defensive performance put forward by the Colts, especially as they had not only lost, but been blown out by a number of the better teams they have faced.

That includes a huge home loss to the New England Patriots, but Luck might feel better with the emergence of Dan Herron who has provided a running game to complement the passing. Trent Richardson is officially a bust in Indianapolis having been a healthy scratch last week, but Herron has proved the Colts can establish the run without him and he is also an effective Receiver coming out of the backfield.

New England's Defense has played the run well for the most part this season and they have a player like Jamie Collins who seems to make plays all over the field from his position at Linebacker. Darrelle Revis must have been running 'Revis Island' on a minimum staff last week as he could not handle the Baltimore Receivers, but the Corner Back is better than he showed and it might be difficult for Indianapolis to consistently move the chains.

The Patriots should get a better pass rush than the demoralised Denver Broncos managed, while I do think it would be foolish to ignore the fact the Colts only scored 24 points. Luck also turned the ball over twice in that game and these are areas where New England will look to thrive this weekend.

Last week the Colts also looked to dare Peyton Manning to throw the ball, but that might have been down to the fact that they were not convinced he was 100% healthy and that isn't the case this week. Daring Tom Brady to do that will give Indianapolis match up problems against Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, and that will open up the Colts to the New England ground attack which hurt them so badly when the teams met earlier this season.

Vontae Davis can take away one of the Receivers New England will be running, but this is an Offense that found the adjustments to beat Baltimore and I don't think the Colts Defense is as good as it showed.

Jonas Gray may not be the featured Running Back in this one, but his 200 rushing yards i the first game between these teams has to be a concern for Indianapolis. LeGarrette Blount is more of a power runner than Gray, but he could take advantage of running lanes that may open up if Brady shows he has a lot more in the tank than Manning had last weekend.

I think the Patriots are the right side in this one and I am surprised that they are actually favoured by a full Field Goal less than Denver went off against Indianapolis last weekend. Even the opening line that the Broncos had was more than what the Patriots have been given and I do think too much stock has been put into the Colts win last weekend. Andrew Luck played well in Denver, but also made some mistakes, and playing outdoors is going to be tough for him, especially if it remains cold in the north east of the United States.

New England have also blasted Indianapolis in their 3 games since Andrew Luck was drafted by the Colts and all of those wins have come by at least 21 points including in the Play offs here last season. Tom Brady will have heard all the talk about Luck after his win over Peyton Manning's Denver and that should inspire a typically big performance from the Quarter Back in this spot.

The Indianapolis Colts Defense looked better thanks to the injury Manning played through and I also think Luck is still good for a couple of mistakes against the best teams. I also expect Darrelle Revis to have a bounce back game at Corner Back and perhaps help himself to a key Interception at some point.

There are some trends that really favour Indianapolis, but I think New England are the better team and can cover this number thanks to a couple of adjustments made by Bill Belichick at half time. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last 5 Conference Championship Games, but this number remains too low as far as I am concerned and the Patriots should book their place in Arizona in two weeks time.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Divisional: 3-1, + 3.76 Units
Wild Card: 2-2, + 0.90 Units
Week 17: 5-3, + 2.55 Units
Week 16: 5-6, - 3.55 Units
Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 75-79-2, - 8.24 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Play Offs Conference Championships 2014 (January 19th)

We have reached the final weekend of the NFL season as we get to decide the two teams that will compete in the Super Bowl in two weeks time in New York City. In all honesty, I think we are fortunate in seeing the four best teams in the NFL remaining alive to win the big game and that should lead to two very good Conference Championship Games on Sunday.


The Play Offs haven't been as successful for my picks as last season, but the season has proved to be a very profitable one and that's all you can ask for back in September when everything gets going.

I hope the last three games will at least add to that as we get the games going.


New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: We know what the Broncos are able to do with the powerful Offense they have been running all season, although there have been small signs that teams are beginning to get a hang of what they are seeing. Even then, it is tough to find a way to stop the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Erik Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker and that is just the Receivers and not accounting for the Running Backs coming out of the backfield.

Bill Belichick is sure to have something up his sleeve in a bid to rattle Peyton Manning when he does drop back to pass and the New England Patriots have found pressure from their pass rush. The Patriots should also show more discipline than the San Diego Chargers who were probably dreaming about 'Omaha' on their journey back to California after the loss last weekend.

If New England can at least force Manning to think about where the pressure is coming from, they have a Defense that can cause some disruption in the passing game, but it will all begin and end up front. If the pressure is not there, we did see Andrew Luck have decent success throwing the ball against the Patriots last week and there is no doubt that Denver hold many more weapons than the Colts did without Reggie Wayne in their line up.

It is not like the Patriots can sell out to defend the pass either as Manning is smart enough to check into a run play if there are not the number of men in the box that he is expecting. New England have struggled against the rush without Vince Wilfork so the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball should be able to keep the chains moving if they are handed the ball by the Quarter Back.

The rushing attack has also been all the rage in New England in their last few games and that was highlighted by the team scoring over 40 points against Indianapolis, yet Tom Brady didn't throw one Touchdown pass. New England have lost some serious Receivers since last season and during the course of this one through injury, but the Offensive Line seems to have enjoyed pounding the ball on the ground and that has seen LeGarroutte Blount show off his own ability.

Between Blount, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, New England have the change of pace at the Running Back position and they have all been effective, although it might not be so easy against a stout Denver Defense. Despite the injuries on that side of the ball, the Broncos have continued making it tough to run the ball against them and they showed that off last week by shutting down the San Diego Chargers when it came to an element that had hurt them at times in the regular season.

That does mean New England are likely to rely on Tom Brady a little more in this one than they did last week and the Quarter Back could open the running lanes by having success through the air. Von Miller is out for the Broncos, but they still managed to get a pass rush going against San Diego, and that is an area that the Patriots Offensive Line haven't always been as comfortable with.

Denver will have to get to Brady if they are to win this game, particularly with the injury suffered by Chris Harris last week which exposed a Secondary in the last quarter against the Chargers. Brady might not have the household names any more, but Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman could pose problems for the Broncos if Quentin Jammer hasn't improved his play with a week of practice under his belt. That will at least give New England the chance to compete in a shoot-out too and could be the biggest problem for Denver to deal with in this game.

Both of these teams have had me convinced that they are the right side to back at different times during the week and it has been tough to get a real feel for being on the correct side, although I have eventually landed with taking New England and the points to at least keep this game competitive.

The Patriots know all about Peyton Manning and while his Offense looks loaded with talented weapons, I think Bill Belichick will do enough to give Tom Brady and his own Offense the chance to surprise the home team.

That's not to say New England will prevent Denver scoring points, I just think the Defense will have enough success to at least limit them to the point that the Patriots own Offense can score enough points to stay with them.

It is easy to see one mistake being critical to which teams goes through to the Super Bowl in New York, but getting more than a field goal head start on New England looks a touch too high. That is especially the case considering the Patriots have rarely been beaten comfortably with their highest point loss being just 7 points all season and I can see Tom Brady at least scoring late to get within the number.

The Patriots are also a good team that has won 13 games this season and the trend that teams that have won at least 12 games but have a weaker record than their opponent are 39-11 against the spread does favour them. However, coming off big blow out wins in the Play Offs has been tough to back up and that has to be a concern for the Patriots backers.

Even then, the absence of Chris Harris for Denver looks to be opening a big enough hole in the Secondary for New England to find a way to exploit it and I think Tom Brady is already a touch annoyed at being the underdog. He mentioned last weekend that no one will expect New England to win and the Patriots have always been strong in that position too so I will take the points in this one and just hope for a close Denver win (that's the Miami Dolphin fan coming out of me at the end).


San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: One of the questions that is going to need answering is how well Russell Wilson plays at the Quarter Back position with some in the media beginning to question how well he is playing. It is true that Wilson hasn't been at his best the last few games, but he is a Quarter Back that relishes the big game and he will be able to make plays against this Secondary if he can scramble away from the pressure that San Francisco have been generating with the return of Aldon Smith.

It will begin by handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch and letting 'Beast Mode' try and pick up some yards on the ground, although it has to be said that the 49ers Defense is playing the run very well in recent games. While they have been productive in that regards all season, the 49ers have only given up 3.4 yards per carry over their last three games, although don't expect Seattle to get away from the game plan as Lynch is capable of breaking tackles.

The Seahawks will look to keep San Francisco honest by using the run, but it might also be a good idea to design runs for Russell Wilson as the Offense needs to stay in third and manageable situations if they are to sustain drives. Otherwise, the 49ers can pin back their ears on obvious passing downs and pressure Wilson, while they have also shown good discipline to contain running Quarter Backs as shown against Cam Newton last week.

Wilson is likely to be not have Percy Harvin in the Receiver position to give him another threat, but there is enough in their passing game to think they can get the ball downfield against a Secondary that has been burnt through the air.

Another factor the Seahawks will look to employ is their home field advantage which has bamboozled the 49ers the last two times they have visited here. The crowd is loud, while the Seattle Defense is probably the best one in the NFL and these are conditions that Colin Kaepernick will have to deal with if the 49ers are to return to the Super Bowl for the second season in succession.

To Kaepernick's defence, he will have a lot more weapons to go against the Seattle 'Legion of Boom' this time as he has Michael Crabtree and a healthy Vernon Davis to complement Anquan Boldin, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will find a way to move the chains throughout the game.

Like Seattle, San Francisco begin by trying to run the ball but the Seahawks Defense has been absolutely bruising against those attacks in recent games. There were a couple of times when teams had success moving the ball on the ground, but I am not sure Frank Gore will get too much joy against a Defense that has allowed 2.4 yards per carry over their last three games.

Again, like Seattle, San Francisco are likely to design more running plays for Colin Kaepernick at the Quarter Back position to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. If you think San Francisco have a decent pass rush, Seattle's is as fierce as any in the NFL and they will give this Offensive Line a lot of problems in late down and long distance if the 49ers can't keep the Offense in a good position.

Kaepernick may have his full complement of weapons back, but the Seattle Secondary is physical and have the ability to make plays under pressure so it will be a tough test for the Quarter Back to make the plays with his arm. I do think he will have some success, but Kaepernick has to make the right decisions too as turnovers have been one of the main problems in the last two games here which has seen the game get out of hand. At home, Seattle have the highest turnover differential in the NFL so you know they are capable of forcing Interceptions which could be critical for their chances to make it back to the big game.

So what can you say about this game that you wouldn't have read already? We all know it is a fierce rivalry that has been best described as the 'new Pittsburgh-Baltimore' of the NFL and I expect it to be as physical and bruising as those Steelers-Ravens games have been over the years.

The two teams are almost mirror images of one another with the same basic principle of tough Defense and using the ground and pound when they have the ball on Offense. What has made a difference in their games has been home field advantage and it is a big mental obstacle for the 49ers to overcome after taking back to back heavy losses in visits to Seattle.

Colin Kaepernick does have more weapons at his disposal, but this physical Defense of the Seahawks matches up well against them and I think turnovers are more likely to come from the 49ers which could prove to be the difference at the end of the game.

It is the turnovers that have killed the 49ers in their last two visits to Seattle and the loud crowd could help force some more to win the game for the home team and help them cover the spread in this one.

The Seahawks have been a strong home favourite to back in recent years and are 24-10 against the spread in that spot since 2007, but they do have to reverse the fact that the underdog is 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 NFC Conference Championship Games. In fact, the underdog has won the last 4 NFC Championship Games, but the 'sharp' money is backing the Seahawks and I do think they are going to prove a little too good for a San Francisco team that is playing their third road game in three weeks.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 84-69-2, + 20.53 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Play Off Championship Games 2013 (January 20)

Well, well, well, we have finally made it through to the penultimate weekend of the NFL season (I don't count the Pro Bowl) and it has been a positive Play Off run for the picks in what was a disappointing and tough regular season to negotiate.

The run in the Play Offs has reached 7-1 thanks to Seattle and New England covering last Sunday and hopefully that will continue through for three more games.

Just before I get on to the picks, I have to say a little about the Manti Te'o situation- it is very worrying to think someone as intelligent as Te'o was catfished so comprehensively, but there is enough gnawing at me to think there is more to the tale.

I have little belief that he didn't know it was a hoax sooner and there are a lot of interviews that contradict what he is now saying. It is a shame, as he looked a lock for a top 15 pick in the NFL Draft, and I do see that stock falling. What makes it worrying is that someone would think it is correct to perpetuate a lie, to almost go out of their way to let the lie develop and there are so many questions to be answered.

The story shows little to no sign of slowing down at the moment and I think a lot is going to be revealed as to how much Te'o knew about the 'hoax'.

Personally, I think there has to be an opportunity for Jeff Ireland to interview Te'o and see if he can put his foot in his own mouth any worse than when he interviewed Dez Bryant.


San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The first thing I would say is that the spread is ridiculous as it should be much shorter, although I do believe the right side is being favoured and I do think San Francisco will cover in the win to book their place in New Orleans in two weeks time.

The problem for Atlanta is that they have shown nothing to think they can slow down Colin Kaepernick- both Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have carved up this Defense this season and Kaerpernick has the wheels and the arm to become the latest to make hay in that situation.

I have little doubt that San Francisco will be moving the chains in this one, almost at will, and my only concern is the situation with Michael Crabtree and whether he will be active for the game. I would be surprised if he wasn't, but if Crabtree was unavailable,  Vernon Davis will be given a bigger opportunity in the Offense.

That won't be a bad thing as Davis is more than capable of replicating what Zach Miller did last week for Seattle, although the loss of Crabtree would limit the Offense a little.

Another issue for Atlanta is that their Offense could be made fairly one-dimensional in this one... Michael Turner showed some life last week against Seattle, but the Seahawks are not as stout against the run as the 49ers and I expect all the pressure will be on Matt Ryan.

Ryan banished some of the demons with a come from behind win over Seattle last weekend, but this is a tougher Defense in my opinion and it won't be easy for him to torch the Secondary without a running game established. The likes of Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez are top receivers so they will find spaces, but to do that consistently will be an issue for Atlanta in my opinion.

There are a lot of trends that do favour the Falcons in the game that worry me, particularly of sides coming off a huge Offensive output as the 49ers are (teams scoring at least 40 points in the Play Offs are 3-20 against the spread since 1996).

However, they look the better team and I do think the 49ers are going to be too good on both sides of the ball and pull the win.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons 24-30 San Francisco 49ers


Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Pick: Is it destiny or something else? The Baltimore Ravens certainly feel that the whole season was going to boil down to them going back to Foxboro for the AFC Championship Game and a chance to earn some redemption from a season ago. Everyone remembers the Lee Evans dropped touchdown and the Billy Cundiff choke in a game the Ravens deserved to win.

That was the weekend when both Harbaugh brothers saw their team lose in the Championship Round to miss the chance of getting to the SuperBowl and I think they may both be in different situations this time around.

I have no doubt that Baltimore are banged up Defensively, but this unit has come together in the last couple of weeks as they rally around for one last run to the big game as a team. Ray Lewis is gone at the end of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Reed joins him, but they look like a team that feels they can put the exclamation point at the end of Lewis' career.

Baltimore should have some success through the air and on the ground against this Defense, particularly if Play Off Joe Flacco has another big game. He outplayed Peyton Manning last week and he outplayed Tom Brady last season, while Jim Caldwell has already shown he is a far better Offensive Co-Ordinator than Cam Cameron.

Rob Gronkowski is missing for New England, but I don't think that will have the huge impact that it would have done a season ago, especially with the Patriots playing down the stretch without him this season. Brady will still find a way to move the chains with his receivers and he will get the ball out quickly to avoid pressure, something that Baltimore have rattled him with in the past.

I also expect the Patriots to find some success on the floor with Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen, but something has to be said about how tough Baltimore have played New England throughout recent seasons.

I hate the fact that Bill Belichick is a covering machine when he faces a team he has lost to previously in the season (14-3 against the spread), but teams given at least a touchdown in Conference Championship Games are 8-3 against the spread since 1997.

Baltimore have also played New England tough in their last 3 visits here, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games too and I'll take more than a touchdown start that they can do the same again.


MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 8 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

NFL Preview 2012 (AFC Conference)

It does only feel like yesterday that we saw the New York Giants knock off the New England Patriots to win the SuperBowl, but the new season is upon us and I can't wait for the kick off.

I actually think the NFC is the stronger Conference of the two and I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up their fourth straight SuperBowl win and their fifth in the last six seasons. There are a number of teams that look capable of going all the way in the NFC, but that just makes it harder to pick a potential winner before the season starts.

Below I will have a brief look at all the teams in the AFC Conference and how I think their prospects are for the new season. Of course things are always likely to change with injuries being a major part of the sport and, depending on who is unfortunate to miss time, that can change the prospects of teams dramatically.

My forecast for how teams do is obviously based on how the teams look at this stage. For example, I think New England are going to win a bunch of games, but that would not be the case if Tom Brady was injured for the season as he was in 2008. So any forecast I have made for teams have to be taken with that pinch of salt in mind.

My preview of the teams in the NFC Conference can be found here.

AFC East

New England Patriots (13-3) Record last year in bracket

Last years SuperBowl Runners-Up remain one of the elite teams in the AFC and they look head and shoulders above the rest of their rivals in the AFC East as far as I am concerned.

Tom Brady has been given a new deep-threat with the signing of Brandon Lloyd, while I expect the two Tight End set to pose plenty of match up problems for Defenses they face. The running game will be governed by Steven Ridley since Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis was allowed to move on, but the key to their whole Offense remains Brady and I have no doubt they will continue racking up the points.

The biggest question mark on the team remains a Defense that finished 31 in yards per game last year, one that will now be missing the pass rushing ability of Mark Anderson, Andre Carter and Shaun Ellis. That means Number 1 Draft Pick, Chandler Jones, will be expected to fit straight on to the Defensive Line, but they definitely look a little weaker if trying to get to the opposition Quarter Back.

The Secondary are capable of turning the ball over, but they may have a hard time if there is a lack of pressure up front. However, this deficiency is unlikely to stop them winning the AFC East as I don't think any of the teams they face have a consistent passing game to take advantage, but they will need to improve play if they are to get back to the big game in February.

New England do not face a horrible schedule and only meet four teams that made the Play Offs last season, three of those coming at home. Looking through their schedule, I am expecting the Patriots to win at least 13 games, and they could finish with an even better record if the Defense improves a little from last year.

Buffalo Bills (6-10)

The Buffalo Bills haven't made the Play Offs since 1999, but they do look a team on the rise and may be in contention for a Wild Card spot with a bit of fortune and better health this season.

My biggest issue with the Bills is an Offense that struggled in the second half of last season after Ryan Fitzpatrick signed a huge contract extension. However, they do get Fred Jackson back this season and I think they will be capable of running the ball with either him or CJ Spiller coming out of the backfield.

My problem is the Quarter Back and the Receivers as I don't particularly rate them highly, but the Offensive Line should be improved and Fitzpatrick may get a little more time to make the right decisions. Stevie Johnson and David Nelson don't exactly get the blood rushing in the receiving areas, but they do seem to have some sort of chemistry with the QB and that can be enough to keep things ticking over.

While the Offense may struggle for consistency without the big play-makers at receiver, the Defense is vastly improved this year and could be one of the better ones in the NFL if they can maintain some health.

Mario Williams was the big off-season signing and he is going to help provide a stronger pass rush with Mark Anderson and their additions to the Defensive Line gives Buffalo one of the best in the NFL when teamed with Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. Stephon Gilmore will be a starter at Corner Back after being picked up as the first choice in the Draft and the Secondary may just be helped out by the front four that should be able to put plenty of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back.

The Buffalo Defense looks very capable as long as the front four can stay healthy and get the pressure on the opposition Quarter Back as I expect they can. The Linebackers have experience, while the Secondary will only be helped if the front four are as good as they look like they can be.

I would have projected Buffalo as a definite Wild Card team if the schedule had been kinder and if I had full faith their starting Defense can stay healthy. Their first nine games are tough, but if the Bills can get out of that at 4-5, there is a chance they can finish with a 10-6 record with full health and may possibly be enough to move into the Play Offs.

New York Jets (8-8)




The New York Jets fell apart from inside the dressing room last year and that saw them fail to make the Play Offs after getting to the AFC Championship Game in each of the previous two seasons.

Bringing in Tim Tebow to the mix looks like a move that will either bring these players together or one that will see the Jets fall apart and end the Rex Ryan era in New York.

Mark Sanchez is the current starting Quarter Back and Tebow is expected to run certain packages for the Offense. Sanchez has struggled for consistency in his three seasons in the NFL and it will be interesting to see how long the crowd give him before they start calling for Tebow to start.

The Offense struggled altogether last season and I don't see enough improvements to them this season. The Wide Receiver position looks weak, while Shonn Greene is inconsistent running the ball.

Last year the Defense struggled against the run, but they do look better equipped to deal with that this year, while the Secondary remains one of the better ones in the NFL. There will be hope that Quinton Coples can help generate a more effective pass rush from the Defensive Ends this season and I do expect the Jets to have one of the higher ranked Defenses in the League.

I don't particularly like their schedule, especially in the early weeks of the season, and it may be tough for them to make a return to the Play Offs. Personally I think they may end with the same record as last season and finish 8-8, but it could get worse if they have the same infighting as last season as I don't see them being better than 4-4 at their bye week.

On the other hand, if the Jets surpass expectations, their two games against Buffalo may decide which of these AFC East teams, if either, gets into the Play Offs as a Wild Card team.

Miami Dolphins (6-10)




It hasn't been the best few years to be a Miami Dolphins fan and I don't foresee too much changing in 2012 with plenty more questions than answers about their team.

In the off-season, Miami missed out on picking up Peyton Manning and then decided to deal Brandon Marshall just before the Draft. Ryan Tannehill was the Number 1 Draft Choice, but he looks like being kept out for the year to get up to speed with the NFL.

Miami look like a team that is going to have a hard time on Offense as they just don't have the receiving playmakers needed to be competitive in this tough Division. The Wide Receivers are Brian Hartline and Davone Bess with Anthony Fasano at Tight End, while there are serious questions over whether Matt Moore or David Garrard start behind the Offensive Line, which should be stronger than last year.

There is some hope that Reggie Bush can continue running the ball effectively and he will be joined by Daniel Thomas in the backfield.

The Defense remains the strength of the team and they were very effective against the run last season and I expect they will be the same again this year. However, there is a lack of depth in the Defensive Line and the loss of Jason Taylor will still be an issue. The Dolphins have a solid set of Linebackers, but they will want to get more pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and not just rely on Cameron Wake to get the job done.

Miami's Secondary could have been upgraded with the signing of Richard Marshall who will likely be the starter opposite Vontae Davis with Sean Smith backing them up.

The team have had just one winning record in the past six seasons and I don't think they are ready to have one this season as they are still rebuilding the Offense. The new Head Coach is Joe Philbin, who was the Offensive Co-Ordinator at Green Bay last season, so he should be able to get something out of the team, but they are limited in terms of talent on the Offensive side of the ball as far as I am concerned.

I initially thought Miami could at least get up to 6 wins in the Division, but moves since I first wrote this has changed my expectations completely, while they will be starting the rookie Ryan Tannehill at Quarter Back... There is every chance that the Fins may finish with the worst record in the NFL, but my heart is looking at a 4-12 record with a bit of luck.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

The Pittsburgh Steelers failed to win the AFC North last season, but they were the favourites to win their Wild Card game against the Denver Broncos before losing in a shocker to Tim Tebow in Overtime.

Pittsburgh remain one of the favourites in the AFC, but the defence is a year older after struggling at times last season and they did really have a hard time earning turnovers. However, they did finish as the Number 1 Ranked defence when it came to points per game and they remain a tough team to score upon.

The bigger question for this squad may be on the offensive side of the ball as they bring in Todd Haley as Offensive Co-Ordinator... This move has not been well received by Ben Roethlisberger as Bruce Arians, a good friend of his, was removed from that post for Haley and there could be a chance in how Pittsburgh attack defences with more emphasis likely to be on the running game.

Mike Wallace continues to be a hold out as he wants a much larger contract and that will take down the quality of the receiving corps if it is not resolved, while Rashard Mendenhall is expected to open the season on the PUP list.

The Offensive Line has at least been upgraded with a couple of Draft Picks and I expect the more balanced offense to protect Roethlisberger a little more as he takes far too many sacks and can be a little beaten up as the season draws into Play Off time.

I have pegged Pittsburgh to reclaim the AFC North title with them having a slightly easier schedule than Baltimore and I wouldn't be surprised if they can get back to the 12 win table after reaching that total in three of the last four years. The Steelers will need to win a couple of really tough road games if they are to reach that total (games at Denver, Tennessee, Cincinnati and Dallas).

Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

Baltimore were literally a slip of a catch away from winning the AFC Championship Game at New England last season and playing in the SuperBowl (also missed a game tying Field Goal from around 27 yards at the end of regulation) and now they arrive into the 2012 season a year older on defence and missing a monster of a component in Terrell Suggs.

Suggs was the Defensive Player of the Year last season but tore his achilles in the off-season and is not due back before November at the very earliest, while the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are another year older (even if they haven't looked like missing a step). There will be some expectation on Courtney Upshaw, their top pick in the Draft, to come in and play immediately in place of Jarret Johnson who signed with San Diego in Free Agency, while Paul Kruger should start in place of Suggs.

The Ravens have also had to replace Defensive Co-Ordinator Chuck Pegano who has taken over as the Head Coach of Indianapolis, but Dean Pees is another internal promotion so I expect the defence to be as tough as ever.

Joe Flacco will be still be looking for a little more consistency in his Quarter Back play, but he showed he has the big game temperament with three solid games against Pittsburgh (twice) and New England in the AFC Championship Game. The Offensive Line remains strong, although the loss of Ben Grubbs to New Orleans could affect the run game as it did when he was injured last season and the Ravens will be using a rookie at Left Guard.

Ray Rice is still one of the most versatile backs in the NFL as he is a real threat in the passing game out of the backfield and he should be ready for a big season after signing a new contract. As long as the Ravens can adjust to running the ball without Grubbs, they remain one of the favourites in the AFC.

I have got them finishing behind Pittsburgh mainly because of the schedule as they have trips to Philadelphia, Houston, San Diego and a potentially improved Kansas City to deal with while also hosting both SuperBowl teams from last season as well as being in this tough Division. I still think the Ravens get into double-digit wins, but that may not be enough to retain their title from last season although I do think they will get into the Wild Card spots for the Play Offs.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

Not many people would have tipped Cincinnati to have finished with a winning record last season, and even fewer would have picked them as a Play Off team as they were set to start a rookie at Quarter Back and they were losing their best player in the Secondary (Jonathan Joseph).

It was a surprising season all around and the expectations have been raised as Andy Dalton and AJ Green (WR) move into their second seasons- Green may find it tougher as teams will be aware of his ability and had already began double-teaming him last season and there isn't another receiver opposite him that will take those away.

The defence may have given up 20.2 points per game last season (24th in the NFL), but they didn't give up many yards (7th) and are expected to be amongst the leaders again this season. It also has to be said that outside of Pittsburgh and Baltimore, only Denver (pre-Tebow) managed to score 24 points against the Bengals.

Cincinnati made some additions to the defence, particularly top pick in the Draft Dre Kirkpatrick, and they should be just as strong as last season if not improved.

Even with that in mind, Cincinnati may actually regress in terms of wins this season as they are in the tough AFC North that has to also play the NFC East which is one of the toughest, if not THE toughest, Divisions in the NFL. Their games before their bye week could see the Bengals as good as 5-2, but their schedule is very tough after that and I believe they will finish without a winning record this season.

Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Cleveland are still in a process of rebuilding and have also just been bought by Jim Haslem, a '1000 percent Steeler fan'.

They spent their first couple of picks in the Draft in bringing in an upgrade at Quarter Back, Brandon Weeden, and Trent Richardson at Running Back in a bid to get the offense going after failing to average more than 17 points per game in any of the last four seasons.

Richardson has had surgery on his knee, but is expected to start in the first game of the season. Weeden's accuracy at the QB position should at least get the likes of Mohamed Massaquoi, Greg Little and Benjamin Watson going.

There has to be better play from the Offensive Line who gave up 39 sacks last season and didn't open up the running lanes, but their improvement at QB and RB should help both of these numbers.

The Browns defence is perhaps a little under-appreciated, but they will be missing Phillip Taylor with injury, while Scott Fujita and Joe Haden are both likely to be suspended and will miss three and four games respectively.

Dick Jauron is the Defensive Co-Ordinator here and I expect them to be stronger in the second year in his system, but the team is unlikely to move out of the basement in this tough Division.

While I do think Cleveland are moving the right way, they still have some ways to go and their schedule has not done them any favours which means I think they struggle to surpass last seasons 4 wins. There are some winnable games on the schedule this season, but I can't see more than 3/4 wins without a couple of surprise results heading their way.

AFC South

Houston Texans (10-6)

It won't be a surprise to anyone that I am projecting the Houston Texans to win the AFC South for a second season in succession as they return some familiar players to the starting line up, although losing a couple of key pieces.

Matt Schaub actually missed the end of last season as Houston looked capable of really challenging for the AFC Championship and a place in the SuperBowl, and his presence will be key to once again powering this Offense that is capable of scoring plenty of points.

The Quarter Back play is pretty good, but is aided by playmakers like Andre Johnson, Arian Foster (as long as both can stay healthy) and Owen Daniels. The Offensive Line has lost Eric Winston this season and that leaves some question marks on them on that side of the ball, but there is too much talent to prevent them averaging more than the 23.4 points per game they managed last season.

Wade Phillips came in as Defensive Co-Ordinator last season and he worked wonders in helping them to the Number 2 defence in terms of yards per game and Number 4 in terms of points per game allowed.

He changed the formation into a 3-4 defence, although some may be concerned by losing Mario Williams in Free Agency. However, Brook Reeds managed 6 sacks as a rookie in place of an injured Williams last season and he will now be a starter opposite Connor Barwin, who had 11.5 sacks last season, at the outside linebacker positions.

Bradie James has been brought in to replace DeMeco Ryans as an inside linebacker and should fit in to the system having played for Phillips in Dallas and the defence looks capable of being one of the better ones again in the NFL as they continue to have the ability to rush the Quarter Back with their front 7.

The Texans are in a weak Division and look capable of reaching double-digit wins again as they are given a schedule that is similar in strength to the one they faced in 2011. They would have finished with more than 10 wins in 2011 if they hadn't started looking ahead to the Play Offs (losing their last 3 games), but I have them getting back to that total this time and hosting a Wild Card game in the Play Offs.

Tennessee Titans (9-7)



The Tennessee Titans were a surprise team to me last season as I didn't expect them to finish with a winning record, but it could be tough for them to repeat that in 2012 despite being in a Division with Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

I expect Chris Johnson to have a much better season after he just cracked 1000 yards for the season at an average of 4 yards per carry in 2011 a year after going for 1364 yards at 4.3 yards per carry and then being rewarded with a big contract extension.

A lot of the offense will go through Johnson with Matt Hasselbeck likely to keep his starting job despite the Titans making a big effort to bring in Peyton Manning in Free Agency. There is a chance that Jake Locker will take over as the starter at some point in the season, especially if the Titans are struggling.

Kendall Wright (WR) may be a bigger part of the offense in his rookie season than he might have expected with Kenny Britt once again in trouble with the law and likely to miss some time through suspension and he is also coming off a ACL tear that prematurely ended his 2011 season.

The defence was the real strength of this team, although they did struggle to get to the Quarter Back in 2011 and they have brought in Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland with that in mind. Cortland Finnegan CB) has moved on so they have got younger in that position, although they could have a tough time if there is not enough pressure from the front 7.

Tennessee face a really tough schedule on slate in 2012 and I can't see how they get back to a winning record- in fact, they may just struggle to even get back up to 8 wins and I foresee them having a losing record for only the second time in the last seven seasons.





Indianapolis Colts (2-14)


The Indianapolis Colts 'won' the chance to pick Andrew Luck in the NFL Draft and that means it is the end of the Peyton Manning era here as he was allowed to move on. There has been a total in-house clearance in Indianapolis as Jim Irsay got set to move onto this new era in the Colts history.

Chuck Pegano, Baltimore's former Defensive Co-Ordinator, has taken over as the Head Coach and the vast majority of the Coaches are in their first year at the Colts. This means a change in systems and getting new ideas across that will surely lead to a rebuilding year.

Andrew Luck will get Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Donny Avery as potential receivers and he also has Coby Fleener at Tight End, his team-mate and safety blanket at Stanford last year. However, the Offensive Line is being rebuilt, while Indianapolis will look to their running backs to keep the pressure off their rookie Quarter Back.

The defence will now have to learn a new system as they move to a 3-4 formation, a situation that can only lead to more struggles following last season when they finished 29th in yards per game allowed and 28th in points per game allowed.

There have been a lot of goings from the roster, but the schedule will provide them an opportunity to maybe double the wins from last season as they get to play Jacksonville (twice), Tennessee (twice), Cleveland, Miami and Minnesota (all at home). That schedule may also see them finish above Jacksonville in the Division if they can get to 4 wins.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)



Shahid Khan took over as the new owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars last season and has promised to keep the franchise here and not move to Los Angeles, although he will be hoping they can attract fans to the stadium to support the team.

That won't be easy considering how bad they looked last season, despite the 5 wins, and the team with the worst offensive yards per game in the NFL are unlikely to have improved much this season. Maurice Jones-Drew is their main, and some would say only, weapon in this offense, but he has been holding out in the off-season as he wants a new contract and that may have set him back... How much will depend when he returns.

The Jaguars did try to increase their production by bringing in Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon as receivers for Blaine Gabbert, but the Quarter Back will really need to have upped his game in the off-season after a terrible rookie season when he looked lost at times.

Jacksonville do have a decent defence that can keep them in games and the signing of Aaron Ross (CB) in Free Agency will make their Secondary that little bit tougher. They are tough to run on having held teams to 3.8 yards per carry last season, but the pressure on the Jaguars will be in keeping games as close as they can and that will mean the offense at least finding a way to move the chains with consistency and giving the defence a chance to rest.

The schedule looks a tough one to negotiate and I think they will fall short of the 5 wins they managed last year and, if things fall a little badly, they may have their worst season since joining the NFL (4-12 record).

AFC West

San Diego Chargers (8-8)

The San Diego Chargers haven't won the AFC West in the last couple of seasons, but they are still the best team in this Division as far as I am concerned. They have had 6 seasons with a winning record in the last 8 years and it was only a collapse in the middle of the 2011 season that cost them a chance of making it back to the Play Offs for the first time since 2009 (the Chargers went 1-6 after a 4-1 start that saw them lose their way in the Division).

Philip Rivers is still the best Quarter Back in the AFC West even though the Denver Broncos have brought Peyton Manning into the mix. Rivers continually denied having an injury last season as he made a lot of mistakes, but I am sure there was something not right with him and he is someone that is still within the elite at this position in the NFL.

He no longer has the option of throwing to Vincent Jackson as he moved on in Free Agency, but the Chargers brought in Robert Meachem who will provide the deep threat, while Malcom Floyd is a huge target that may have his best season in the NFL as long as he can stay healthy. Antonio Gates is still a top receiving threat although there are some depth issues with Vincent Brown breaking his ankle in the pre-season.

Ryan Mathews will carry the workload from the running back position now Mike Tolbert has left in Free Agency, but he has to be a concern with numerous injuries affecting him in his first two years in the League.

The Defense has been upgraded in a bid to improve their form from a season ago and they have brought in Jarret Johnson from the Baltimore Ravens to provide another pass rusher opposite Shaun Phillips from the outside linebacker spot, while they also spent their first draft pick on Melvin Ingram who had 19 sacks in his last 2 seasons at South Carolina.

San Diego should also have a stouter Defensive Line and the players in the front 7 may just cover up the deficiencies in the Secondary, giving the Chargers the edge in the AFC West.

This is a tough Division, but the Chargers schedule has given them a chance to have a winning record and that may be enough for them to take it. San Diego need to make a fast start like last season and they will need to go into their bye no worse than 4-2. If they can get to there, I see them getting 9 or 10 wins this season and we have seen a winning record take this Division in 5 of the last 6 seasons.

The Chargers are also 5-1 against Peyton Manning in his career.

Denver Broncos (8-8)

Last season, the Tim Tebow story captured the imagination of the nation as he led the Denver Broncos into the Play Offs and through to the Divisional Round in the Play Offs. However, Tebow never sat well with John Elway, the Hall of Fame former Quarter Back of the Broncos and the current Executive V-P of Football Operations here in Denver, and it was no surprise when they made a play for Peyton Manning in Free Agency.

Manning turned down the chance to go to Tennessee and San Francisco to play here (I was very surprised he didn't pick the 49ers, but he didn't want to play in the same Conference as little brother Eli).

There are still a lot of question marks about Manning and his health and that is either going to make, or break, the Denver Broncos season.

IF Manning is healthy and get back to anything like his old self, the entire Denver offense has been upgraded and I expect better numbers from the Wide Receivers. The Broncos have been smart in bringing in two players that will know Manning's plays, and I expect the likes of Jacob Tamme and Brandon Stokley to have positive impacts on the rest of the receiving corps.

Willis McGahee should help keep Manning upright if he can run the ball as effectively as he did last season, but the Offensive Line does have some question marks and have to improve markedly from the 41 sacks they allowed last season if they are to help the Quarter Back avoid any serious hits.

Last season, Tim Tebow was getting all the attention, but the Defense was playing at a very high level down the stretch and keeping the Broncos in games and allowing the magical 4th Quarter comebacks to be made. While it is has been possible to use the running game against them, the hope will be that Peyton Manning can build leads and force teams to throw.

That will bring in to play the likes of Von Miller, DJ Williams and Elvis Dumervil who are all very capable at getting to the opposition Quarter Back in passing downs, while Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter can make plays in the Secondary.

Denver do face a really tough schedule and that is why I have projected the Chargers to finish above them in the AFC West and I also think the Broncos may just miss the Play Offs. They have a very difficult start as they host Pittsburgh and Houston while travelling to Atlanta (all Play Off teams in 2011) and I think it would be a real achievement for them to be better than 2-4 at their bye week as they also travel to New England and San Diego in that time.

The schedule is a little more manageable after the bye, but visits to Cincinnati, Kansas City and Baltimore are still on slate and it wouldn't be a massive surprise to me if they finish with the same 8-8 record as last season.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)

There have been a number of changes from 12 months ago as Todd Haley is no longer the Head Coach here having been replaced by Romeo Crennel. There is also a new Offensive Co-Ordinator and Special Teams Co-Ordinator, while the expectations are massively reduced after finishing with a losing record the year after winning the AFC West with 10 wins.

Injuries really took their toll on the Chiefs last season as Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry were four of the big names that missed much of the season.

Cassel will once again be the starting Quarter Back for the Chiefs and will be expected to manage the game, while making a few big throws to the likes of Dwayne Bowe (who has signed his franchise tag tender) and Tony Moeaki.

Charles will share time at the running back position with Peyton Hillis as they look to replicate the one-two punch of a couple of seasons ago when Charles was paired with Thomas Jones. The running game should improve their numbers as the Offensive Line has also been upgraded with Eric Winston being signed as the new Right Tackle.

The Defense has lost a key component in Brandon Carr in the Secondary, but they did sign Stanford Routt from Divisional rivals Oakland to take over one of the Corner Back spots opposite Brandon Flowers, while Eric Berry's return from injury will strengthen the unit.

Kansas City have upgraded the Defensive Line by choosing Dontari Poe as their first pick in the Draft, and only 1 team scored more than 16 points against them in the last 5 games of the regular season in 2011.

There does look to be a lot of upside in the Chiefs this season and I have had a hard time separating them and the Denver Broncos if I am honest. If they are still in contention after their first 9 games, the games do get 'easier' down the stretch and they may just surprise everyone by taking the AFC West for the second time in three years.

I think they will surpass the 7 wins from last season, but they may have to settle for the same 8-8 record as Denver although there is a real possibility they do finish with a winning record if they are better than 3-6 after 9 games.

Oakland Raiders (8-8)

Oakland bet the house on Carson Palmer last season as they traded two Number 1 picks in the Draft and a Number 2 to bring him in from the Cincinnati Bengals, but they lost 3 of their last 4 games to lose control of the AFC West and ended with an 8-8 record.

Palmer has not had an off-season to work with the Oakland Raiders staff, but there has been a huge turnover in staff and new systems need to be put in place. There is some real speed in the Receiving areas and I think the off-season will have given them a chance to work on some real chemistry in this area.

And those receivers may just find a little more space to use their quickness as Darren McFadden will be back running the ball for Oakland after missing 10 games with an injury. McFadden has the ability to take the ball to the house from any position on the field and that threat is going to force defenses to respect the running game here and that should help the passing game no end.

While I do think the Offense will be improved, the Defense will be missing Kamerion Wimbley and Stanford Routt from a year ago, and there are some real depth issues which means they will have the pressure of staying healthy to keep the Raiders involved in the Division.

There are still some talented players on the Defense like Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly and Rolando McClain, but they have to have a lot more success in pressurising the Quarter Back in passing situations if they are to cover up a weaker Secondary, while also improving a rush Defense that gave up 5.1 yards per carry in 2011.

Oakland do not have the kindest schedule and I think they are unfortunate in playing the more 'winnable teams' on the road. The Offense has the capabilities of being really explosive this season so they may just surprise me, but they have a new Head Coach, Offensive Co-Ordinator and Defensive Co-Ordinator and that means I have them falling short of the 8 wins they recorded last season and I think they will get around 6 wins and have their first losing record since 2009.

I still think all roads in the AFC are going to pass through New England, although there are some credible threats in the Conference through Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston.

I do really like the Texans, but I wouldn't want to back them having to go to a cold New England in January and unfortunately I think the Patriots are going to have the best record in the Conference with the schedule on slate.

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh could provide much sterner tests to the Patriots, even on the road, but I do think New England are the right favourites to win the Conference as we stand right now. However, they may have to beat both the powerhouses from the AFC North in consecutive weeks and that may be enough to see them knocked off before the SuperBowl.

These four teams do look the pick of the Conference and I expect one of them will be playing in the SuperBowl, although that is hardly pushing the envelope in making a prediction.

AFC Play Off Team Prediction: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego, Baltimore and Buffalo