Another busy day in the tennis world as the tournaments wind down and the ATP Tour moves onto the first Masters event on the clay courts in Monte Carlo.
The Semi Finals in Casablanca, Charleston, Houston and Katowice take place on Saturday and I have picks from some of those matches.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: This has been a strong week for Albert Montanes who has begun the slide out of the main Tour events. The veteran has yet to drop a set this week but the challenge increases in magnitude as he gets ready to face Federico Delbonis for a place in the Final on Sunday.
It is a big ask for Montanes who has lost all three previous matches against Delbonis and has yet to win a set. Most of those wins have come fairly comfortably for the Argentinian and I am backing Delbonis to be able to cover the number in this one.
2016 has not been a very strong season for Delbonis, but the next few months are going to be key for him as the Tour moves onto the clay courts in Europe ahead of the French Open. This should be the time of the season when Delbonis can put together some strong results and move his Ranking in a positive direction and he has to be looking at this tournament as one he can win to build momentum.
His serve is a little more secure than Montanes and I expect Delbonis will have the majority of break point chances in this one. If he can produce his best tennis at those critical moments, I expect Delbonis will win this one 63, 64 to move into the Final.
Borna Coric - 1.5 games v Jiri Vesely: Two younger players on the Tour will be looking to reach a Final at the start of the European clay court season which could help them improve their World Rankings in the coming weeks. Out of the two players, Borna Coric looks the more secure and able to reach his potential than Jiri Vesely who has struggled for consistency at this level.
It has been an 'easy' draw for Coric who has had to win just one match to reach the Semi Final while his opponent has won three matches to join him at this Stage.
That might mean Coric is a little undercooked for the Semi Final, but the other side of the coin is that he should be physically fine to compete. Both players are comfortable on the clay courts, but I think Coric has the better movement and that might give him the edge on this surface.
Vesely is the taller player, but I think he is still trying to find the best way to get more out of his first serve and that can be an issue on the slower surfaces for him. I can see Coric earning more points behind his own first serve and I think it will be a battle to the end with the Croatian player earning his way to a 76, 64 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Juan Monaco: This has been a good week for both Feliciano Lopez and Juan Monaco with only one set dropped between them in five wins to reach the Semi Final. Both should be familiar with one another as former Doubles partners and veterans of the Tour and both will be looking to win the tournament this week in Houston to put some vital Ranking points on the board.
It is Lopez who has won the majority of their previous meetings which isn't a big surprise to me. While his return game isn't the best, Lopez has a very solid serve and that puts the pressure on Monaco whose own serve can be a weakness and I expect that will be the reason the Spaniard moves into the Final in this one.
The surface in Houston is playing faster than most clay courts and that will only favour Lopez a little more and force Monaco to try and stay with him on the scoreboard. The sliced return should keep Monaco focused at all times if he is to stay with Lopez, but it might also force the pressure onto him when behind on the scoreboard and thus leading to mistakes.
I don't think it will be as comfortable as it was for Lopez on Friday, but I do think he will battle through to a 76, 64 win to make it four straight wins over Monaco.
Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Elena Vesnina: The layers are expecting a tight Semi Final after Elena Vesnina has put together a couple of solid tournaments in a row. I do wonder how much is left in the tank for the Russian having won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw before winning four matches in a row to get into the Semi Final.
One credit that has to be given to Vesnina is she has won all of her matches without dropping a set which should give her plenty of confidence to take into this match. However, Sara Errani is the best clay courter she would have faced and the Italian has shown she is able to build momentum through tournaments having won the title in Dubai in what has been a season littered with early exits otherwise.
Errani has had to dig much deeper than Vesnina to come through the last couple of Rounds, but she has managed to do that to show she is very capable of winning this event. Her serve isn't the biggest, but Errani will move Vesnina around the court and I can see her exposing those movement issues to come through this difficult looking Semi Final.
I can see a number of breaks for both players in this one, but ultimately I think Errani will have enough clay court nous to come through with a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.40 Units (8 Units Staked, - 5% Yield)
Showing posts with label Casablanca. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Casablanca. Show all posts
Saturday, 9 April 2016
Thursday, 11 April 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (April 11th)
The tennis tournaments at Casablanca and Houston continue this week and I will continue making picks where I see any value.
For some reason, the layers are not putting up prices for the tournament in Poland, or limiting the markets at the very least and I am not entirely sure why. Oh well, I won't be losing any sleep over that and will just focus on what is out there.
Martin Klizan - 2.5 games v Filippo Volandri: I have picked Martin Klizan as a potential outsider to win the tournament in Casablanca this week, and I do think he can see off the veteran Filippo Volandri as long as his confidence isn't dented from a poor month or so on the Tour.
Klizan certainly has the clay court pedigree and recorded two wins over Volandri last season on this surface so he certainly won't be intimidated by the match up. However, it does have to be taken into consideration that Volandri has won four matches here so will be much more familiar with the court conditions and could have an edge in the match.
There is also a chance that Klizan is forced to go to three sets to win this match, but I do think he is capable of doing it with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win and I like the Number 3 seed to make it into the Second Round.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Rhyne Williams: I am a little surprised that Sam Querrey isn't favoured by at least another game in this one, unless the layers believe the beating he took by Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup last Sunday is playing on his mind.
Querrey is the American Number 1, which shows how far that country has dropped in terms of performers, but he is still likely to be too good for his compatriot Rhyne Williams. Neither player has a lot of clay court pedigree, but Querrey did win a Challenger event last season on this surface against players of a similar level to Williams.
I think the courts here in Houston do play faster than traditional European clay courts and that should favour the Querrey big serve and I do think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.25 (2 Units Staked, + 12.5% Yield)
For some reason, the layers are not putting up prices for the tournament in Poland, or limiting the markets at the very least and I am not entirely sure why. Oh well, I won't be losing any sleep over that and will just focus on what is out there.
Martin Klizan - 2.5 games v Filippo Volandri: I have picked Martin Klizan as a potential outsider to win the tournament in Casablanca this week, and I do think he can see off the veteran Filippo Volandri as long as his confidence isn't dented from a poor month or so on the Tour.
Klizan certainly has the clay court pedigree and recorded two wins over Volandri last season on this surface so he certainly won't be intimidated by the match up. However, it does have to be taken into consideration that Volandri has won four matches here so will be much more familiar with the court conditions and could have an edge in the match.
There is also a chance that Klizan is forced to go to three sets to win this match, but I do think he is capable of doing it with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win and I like the Number 3 seed to make it into the Second Round.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Rhyne Williams: I am a little surprised that Sam Querrey isn't favoured by at least another game in this one, unless the layers believe the beating he took by Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup last Sunday is playing on his mind.
Querrey is the American Number 1, which shows how far that country has dropped in terms of performers, but he is still likely to be too good for his compatriot Rhyne Williams. Neither player has a lot of clay court pedigree, but Querrey did win a Challenger event last season on this surface against players of a similar level to Williams.
I think the courts here in Houston do play faster than traditional European clay courts and that should favour the Querrey big serve and I do think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.25 (2 Units Staked, + 12.5% Yield)
Wednesday, 10 April 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (April 10th)
The big news out of the Davis Cup was the injury suffered by Novak Djokovic, although it does seem like the World Number 1 has escaped anything too serious. He has been told to rest and that does put his place in the Monte Carlo Masters draw in doubt for next week, although reports that he would be a doubt for the French Open have proved to be unfounded.
The loss of Djokovic from the draw would surely make Rafael Nadal a very strong favourite to win the tournament at Roland Garros, although it would also improve the chances of Andy Murray to go all the way as he would go in as the Number 1 seed in the draw.
However, that all seems unlikely now and I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic decides he will follow Roger Federer's lead and not take part in his first clay court event until the Madrid Masters at the beginning of May.
This is the first day that I will make picks from the tournaments being played this week, although I do have some outright picks which can be seen here.
Robin Haase v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Now before I go on, I will happily admit that Robin Haase is one of the most frustratingly inconsistent players on the Main Tour, although I don't believe he should be the underdog in this match.
Haase has proved he is capable of playing on the clay courts at this level, having a 23-18 record over the last couple of seasons and also winning in Kitzbuhel last season. He does struggle to put in a lot of quality weeks, but he does have the tennis that is capable of seeing off Roberto Bautista-Agut in this First Round match.
The Spaniard has been suffering with a stomach injury that saw him retire in the First Round in Miami and I think he may be a touch over-rated in this match as his nationality will mean he has played a lot of tennis on the clay courts. However, take out Bautista-Agut's run to the Final in Chennai, and he is just 3-7 on the season and he hasn't ever won a clay court match on the Main Tour.
I just think Haase is capable of playing enough quality tennis to get through the match and he is worth a small interest in this match.
Lleyton Hewitt - 3.5 games v Martin Alund: This is the one match that was most appealing to me from the tournament in Houston and it is perhaps a surprising choice to back the veteran Lleyton Hewitt against a clay court specialist like Martin Alund.
While Alund is definitely the more secure on the clay courts, I do think he has spent most of his time at a lesser level than Hewitt operates, although the lack of clay court tournaments for the Australian over the last couple of seasons would be a concern.
However, Hewitt is a former winner here in Houston and the courts here are definitely different to the European and the South American clay courts and that may be enough for Hewitt to find a way through against his Argentinian opponent.
The chance of this going into a third set is a slight concern as Hewitt does struggle to protect his serve somewhat, but I think he will be too tough mentally and will book his place in the Second Round after a 6-3, 7-6 win.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lleyton Hewitt - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
The loss of Djokovic from the draw would surely make Rafael Nadal a very strong favourite to win the tournament at Roland Garros, although it would also improve the chances of Andy Murray to go all the way as he would go in as the Number 1 seed in the draw.
However, that all seems unlikely now and I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic decides he will follow Roger Federer's lead and not take part in his first clay court event until the Madrid Masters at the beginning of May.
This is the first day that I will make picks from the tournaments being played this week, although I do have some outright picks which can be seen here.
Robin Haase v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Now before I go on, I will happily admit that Robin Haase is one of the most frustratingly inconsistent players on the Main Tour, although I don't believe he should be the underdog in this match.
Haase has proved he is capable of playing on the clay courts at this level, having a 23-18 record over the last couple of seasons and also winning in Kitzbuhel last season. He does struggle to put in a lot of quality weeks, but he does have the tennis that is capable of seeing off Roberto Bautista-Agut in this First Round match.
The Spaniard has been suffering with a stomach injury that saw him retire in the First Round in Miami and I think he may be a touch over-rated in this match as his nationality will mean he has played a lot of tennis on the clay courts. However, take out Bautista-Agut's run to the Final in Chennai, and he is just 3-7 on the season and he hasn't ever won a clay court match on the Main Tour.
I just think Haase is capable of playing enough quality tennis to get through the match and he is worth a small interest in this match.
Lleyton Hewitt - 3.5 games v Martin Alund: This is the one match that was most appealing to me from the tournament in Houston and it is perhaps a surprising choice to back the veteran Lleyton Hewitt against a clay court specialist like Martin Alund.
While Alund is definitely the more secure on the clay courts, I do think he has spent most of his time at a lesser level than Hewitt operates, although the lack of clay court tournaments for the Australian over the last couple of seasons would be a concern.
However, Hewitt is a former winner here in Houston and the courts here are definitely different to the European and the South American clay courts and that may be enough for Hewitt to find a way through against his Argentinian opponent.
The chance of this going into a third set is a slight concern as Hewitt does struggle to protect his serve somewhat, but I think he will be too tough mentally and will book his place in the Second Round after a 6-3, 7-6 win.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lleyton Hewitt - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
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