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It has been a difficult start to the season for the NFL Picks, but the same could be said in reality for so many of the teams looking to mak...

Showing posts with label April 9th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label April 9th. Show all posts

Thursday, 9 April 2026

Premier League Darts Night 10 Picks 2026 (Thursday 9th April)

This is now the time of the Premier League season when the Play Offs really begin to loom up large and the pressure is building on those chasing top four spots.

Luke Littler's spat with Gian van Veen made the headlines on Night 9, but it was one of four Quarter Final matches where the underdog found a way to get through.

Gerwyn Price won the Night 9 trophy and has moved into 2nd place in the Premier League standings and the pressure has really built up on Luke Humphries.

The defending Champion is in for a battle to merely make it back to the O2 Arena after another early defeat and he needs a big week very quickly if only to offer up some momentum to move into the top four places.


Luke Humphries to win & both players over 1.5 180s v Jonny Clayton: After winning a European Tour title, Luke Humphries would have been expecting much more than back to back Quarter Final defeats in the next two Premier League nights.

He cannot afford another one with a two point gap between himself and the top four and especially if Humphries is to allow Jonny Clayton to just pull himself out of his own recent slump.

Unlike Luke Humphries, Clayton was playing out in Germany and made the Quarter Final before coming up short against Danny Noppert.

A strong start to the Premier League campaign has seen Clayton place 19 points on the board, but the Welshman has suffered three straight Quarter Final defeats since picking up the maximum points on Night 6.

The real disappointment for Clayton is that he has lost to Josh Rock in back to back weeks and those are the only wins the Northern Irishman has produced in the Premier League this season. He has also been beaten the last couple of times when facing Luke Humphries since that Night 6 Final win against the World Number 2 and it may be an opportunity for Humphries to get back to winning ways here in what is usually contests where both players can fill up the maximums.


Gerwyn Price to win & over 2.5 180s v Josh Rock: After getting the better of one Welshman in back to back Premier League Quarter Finals, Josh Rock takes aim at the in-form Gerwyn Price.

There was nothing wrong with the level Rock was producing in Germany over Easter Weekend and he lost a high quality match against Niels Zonneveld.

However, Josh Rock has struggled with the Premier League environment and it is going to be very difficult to slow down Price and the momentum he has picked up.

Moving into 2nd place in the Premier League standings, Gerwyn Price has been in fine form for a number of weeks and should be well rested having skipped the last European Tour event. He will recognise that Josh Rock is playing better, but The Ice Man has been producing top level darts and he should have enough power scoring to contain the threat of the younger player with nothing to lose.


Luke Littler to win & most 180s v Stephen Bunting: There has been little wrong with recent Stephen Bunting efforts against Luke Littler, but he has ultimately come up short in those Premier League contests and that is largely down to the power scoring of the World Number 1.

After the issues at the end of the defeat to Gian van Veen, it will be interesting to see what kind of reaction Luke Littler will get from the crowd in Brighton.

For all the talent he possesses, it can be easy to forget that Littler is still young and relatively inexperienced and he has not always handled the crowd turning against him. That becomes a potential factor in this match with Stephen Bunting usually receiving plenty of support, but Littler will want to draw a line under the controversy in Manchester and perhaps set up that rematch with van Veen who plays in the last Quarter Final.

Luke Littler continues to dominate the maximum hitting and he can be backed to complete the match double against Stephen Bunting yet again.


Michael van Gerwen v Gian van Veen: Both of these players travelled to Germany for the last European Tour event, but neither produced anything of note and will now return to Premier League action.

After Night 9 and Gian van Veen reaching the Final, there is now just a point between the compatriots with Michael van Gerwen clinging onto a top four place.

There just has not been a lot of consistency produced by either player, but Gian van Veen was perhaps a little fortunate to reach the Final on Night 9 and his current form has remained sketchy.

You can say the same for Michael van Gerwen, but a slow start cost him in his Quarter Final defeat to Stephen Bunting- the average was decent enough when fighting back, but too much was left to do at that point of the match.

A stronger start is key, but Gian van Veen has not been producing the big numbers in recent weeks and that may allow his fellow Dutchman to come away with a win as the narrow underdog.

MY PICKS: Luke Humphries to Win & Both Over 1.5 180s @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Gerwyn Price to Win & Over 2.5 180s @ 2.15 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luke Littler to Win & Most 180s @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michael van Gerwen @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 46-65, - 10.83 Units (108 Units Staked, - 10.03% Yield)

Wednesday, 9 April 2025

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 9th April)

The first clay court Tennis Pick of the season produced a frustrating result, but it is only day one and there are still two months of action to get through.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had his chances, but ultimately missed the cover by a game after missing the multiple Break Points opportunities he had in the middle of set two and beginning of set three. By the time he brought his clinical best tennis into the biggest moments, the cover was missed and the final set 6-2 win was too little, too late (for the Pick if not for his own personal record at the tournament in Monte Carlo).


The rest of the Second Round is going to be played on Wednesday and it is another very busy day in Monte Carlo.

As frustrating as it was on Tuesday, taking careful steps is the only way forward if we want to build on what has been a productive start to the 2025 season.

Two matches have made the shortlist and the selections can be read below.


Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: Partnering with Marat Safin will have made the headlines, but Andrey Rublev will be much happier if it leads to a bit more consistency on the Tour. He is the World Number 9, which means a Bye through to the Second Round in Monte Carlo, but it has not been the most consistent of twelve months and Rublev is looking for answers to just turn things back around.

The form in 2025 has been feast of famine for Andrey Rublev- he has lost opening matches in Hong Kong, Indian Wells and Miami and was also beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open, but the Russian has also won a big title in Doha and had a Quarter Final and Semi Final run during the indoor hard court season in Europe.

An opening clay court match would have been tough anyway, even if Rublev is very comfortable on the surface, but that challenge is that much greater when opposed by someone like Gael Monfils. All of the support in the crowd will be with the player on the other side of the net, which is a challenge to deal with, while Gael Monfils continues to enjoy an Indian Summer with some big performances throughout 2025.

His fightback to comfortably win his First Round match will have certainly helped Gael Monfils after a couple of difficult years playing on the clay. The numbers have not been good enough on the clay in recent seasons with the Gael Monfils serve looking vulnerable, but that First Round win will improve the confidence even as he steps up his level considerably to face a top ten Ranked opponent.

Andrey Rublev, for all his troubles, continues to serve well and that will be key in working his way past the veteran home player.

Breaks have to be expected in this match on this surface, but Andrey Rublev may get his clay court season underway with a solid win over an opponent in good form. His partnership with Marat Safin will be enjoyable to watch, and the hope for Rublev is that his compatriot can just help spark his season with a solid win to open up.


Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Valentin Vacherot: For the second year in a row, Valentin Vacherot represents Monaco in the Monte Carlo Masters and he is up against Grigor Dimitrov.

The 26 year old will receive plenty of support, although he is facing a popular player, but the World Number 255 has a gap in quality to bridge and that is the much bigger issue for him to deal with.

A Davis Cup win over Nuno Borges on the clay courts will have given Valentin Vacherot confidence, but the majority of the opponents he faces on the Tour are Ranked outside the top 100 and he was crushed by Damir Dzumhur last week in Bucharest.

The First Round win over Jan-Lennard Struff will help, but it is still asking a lot of Valentin Vacherot to compete with Grigor Dimitrov, even if the Bulgarian is much happier on the faster surfaces.

In saying that, it would be foolish to think that Grigor Dimitrov cannot compete on the clay courts with his positive numbers throughout his career suggesting otherwise. His First Round win over Nicolas Jarry underlines the ability of Dimitrov on the red dirt and the World Number 18 has won 66% of his matches played on the clay since the beginning of the 2022 season.

This includes a routine win over Valentin Vacherot on the clay courts of Monte Carlo twelve months ago when Grigor Dimitrov was able to find four Breaks of serve. During that match he only allowed a single Break Point to be created against his own serve and pushed through the gears through the second set to comfortably progress past the Wild Card.

Something similar could happen in this Second Round match with Grigor Dimitrov expected to be able to get on top of rallies as they develop.

Much like that match in 2024, the first set could be competitive, but that soon followed by a more routine set for Grigor Dimitrov and he can do the same here to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Saturday, 9 April 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 9th)

A couple of the Tennis Picks returned as losses on Friday, but both players had won the first set in those matches so the feeling was that the research and identification of selections were on the right track.

Thankfully four of the six Tennis Picks came back as winners and that has turned this week around after a horrific 0-4 start.

The four tournaments being played this week are concluded over the weekend, while the Monte Carlo Masters begins on Sunday. That is the next big stop on the Tour, although only for the ATP players with this week being an empty one at the WTA Tour level with Fed Cup matches scheduled next weekend.

I am hoping to put some momentum behind the Tennis Picks into the next week on the tough slog of a Tour by putting together another winning day.


Laslo Djere - 1.5 games v Alex Molcan: Both of these players have put together a strong tournament in Marrakech and there is a real opportunity in front of them to win an ATP Tour title.

Alex Molcan and Laslo Djere are comfortable clay court players and that should make this a close Semi Final.

However, I am leaning towards Laslo Djere to get the better of Alex Molcan having produced the much stronger numbers in the tournament so far. The serve has been a particular weapon for Laslo Djere who has held 89% of his service games played and that has allowed the Serbian to play with the freedom on the return that has led to breaks in 40% of return games played.

Those are very impressive numbers and will certainly give Alex Molcan something to think about if Laslo Djere can produce his best tennis here.

The left handed Slovakian has played well in the tournament, but Alex Molcan is holding 81% of service games and breaking in 27% of return games played in Marrakech. That certainly will need to be improved to win this Semi Final, while I think it is difficult to ignore the fact that Alex Molcan has largely struggled with the step up to take on top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface.

He has beaten a couple of those this week, but Alex Molcan has been forced to dig deep and spend plenty of time on the court in the wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Botic Van De Zandschlup.

That could also be a factor in the Semi Final coupled with the very strong performances that Laslo Djere has put on the board and I do think he can reach another ATP Final on the clay courts. If he continues to serve as well as he has been, I think Laslo Djere will have enough to move past Alex Molcan.

MY PICKS: Laslo Djere - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 2.37 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-7, + 1.74 Units (32 Units Staked, + 5.44% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Gennady Golovkin vs Ryota Murata (April 9th)

Like so many sports, the lack of spectators meant Boxing fans had to watch the sport behind closed doors while the pandemic was raging.

The Covid-19 issues have not disappeared, but for the last year the big crowds have begun to return and that has been a huge benefit to the Boxers as much as for those of us watching. I almost missed Sweet Caroline... Almost.

As with the likes of Tennis and Football, I felt it was a good time to step back from the Boxing Picks in the sanitised settings we had to experience. It led a whole host of upsets, while the last year has been a time to watch and appreciate the big names as they have begun to come together to make the big fights, although I was not convinced with making too many selections as fighters shook off the rust.

I have kept watching and some new stars have been made and we are set for a really good run of weekends with some high level events to come.

Boxing Picks have prove to be a positive for the most part, although I did have a tough 2019 before heading into the 2020 that no one expected.

And like with the other Picks on the site, I am streamlining and adjusting to try and put together winning selections.


This feels the right time to place my first Boxing Picks of 2022 here and the big events are going to come thick and fast right through to early June.

Unification fights, contenders coming together to stake their claim for future title bouts and both fresh and big name Boxers are all set to head into the ring- it feels like 2020 has just reminder the Boxers and Promoters as to how fragile long-term plans can be with the upsets that came about and that has gotten more and more together to make the fights we have all wanted to see as fans.

I am still hopeful that we will have Terence Crawford vs Errol Spence Jr to add to the quality fights that have either been scheduled or are set to be announced for 2022 and this feels like a year in which the fans are getting what they wanted.

The only expected disappointment for me? The news that Anthony Joshua vs Oleksandr Usyk 2 will likely be heading to Saudi Arabia this summer... What did I say about fans getting what they wanted?!


Gennady Golovkin vs Ryota Murata

Rumours are that Gennady Golovkin is one win away from securing a trilogy bout with Canelo Alvarez, but both need to secure wins over the next month to put that fight front and centre.

For many Gennady Golovkin has never lost a fight- his blemishes have both come in the two previous fights with Canelo.

I had both tight, but I actually thought they were split 1-1, although the trilogy should really have taken place some time ago.

By the time they are expected to clash, it will have been four years since the second Canelo-GGG bout and it is telling that the 40 year old Kazakhstani has only been involved in three fights since then. Inactivity can be a killer for someone who is some way past his prime and Gennady Golovkin has not looked the same fighter as the one that was avoided by other Middleweights as he was crushing all opposition.

He is ageing and I do think Canelo would have far too much for Golovkin these days, while a sixteen month absence from the ring is far from ideal. Could we see Triple G age overnight and fall over the other side? I think it is a possibility, but the carrot of potentially facing Canelo in September should mean we get one more huge effort from the fantastic fighter.

I think it might have felt a lot different if this Unification was against someone else, but Ryota Murata is a fighter that looks to be one that Gennady Golovkin will feel is made for him. The Japanese WBA Middleweight Champion is solid, if unspectacular, and has a habit of trying to fight fire with fire, surely a poor idea against someone who hits as hard as Golovkin does.

And while he is younger than the future Hall of Famer in the other corner, Ryota Murata is 36 years old and has also been out of the ring for a year longer than Golovkin.

Timing has to be messed up by that ring rust, but Murata benefits from being at home and wanting to perform for the fans. It has to be said that the Japanese fans are unlikely to make this a raucous atmosphere to intimidate Gennady Golovkin and I think the likelihood is that there is still enough in the tank to hit hard enough to force a stoppage at some point in the second half of this Twelve Round Unification.

Ryota Murata has to be given credit for his Olympic successes, but he has not really reached the heights as a pro as Gennady Golovkin. His best wins have not been against the top contenders and the longer lay off cannot help the cause of the home fighter.

It could be a fun fight and I don't think either is going to have to look too far to find the other- the superior hitting power and the better defence looks to be with Gennady Golovkin, although you have to have some doubts once a Boxer reaches a certain age as to how much is left.

Someone like Canelo is likely to expose that if the trilogy is put together for September, but I am not sure Ryota Murata is going to on Saturday and the pressure and power of Gennady Golovkin may wear him down and out in the second half of this Unification at Middleweight.


Undercard
This card is being broadcasted by DAZN and there are a couple of decent scraps on the undercard that could be worth some interest.

The chief support is offered by the unbeaten Junto Nakatani who made his United States debut last September before taking this fight back home.

There is much to like about the 24 year old and there is already talk that Junto Nakatani is going to be wanting to move up to Super-Fly very soon, a loaded Division. Big fights are ahead for a fan friendly fighter and I expect him to have too much for Ryota Yamauchi.

Ryota Yamauchi has bounced back from his sole loss to win four in a row and he has found the stoppage in seven of his eight wins, but he has not really faced someone as good as many believe Junto Nakatani is. I expect Yamauchi to believe in his power, but that may make things all the easier for Nakatani to begin to break down his overmatched opponent and I would not be surprised if this fight is ended somewhere in the middle of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.

It should be enough time for Junto Nakatani to just work out his opponent and begin to break him down as he looks to make a statement on a big card.


In the other bout of note, there may only be a year in age between Shuichiro Yoshino and Masayuki Ito, but the latter has been involved in many tougher bouts than his unbeaten opponent.

This feels like a chance for Yoshino to show that he is ready to take the next step up in his career as he faces a former World Champion, but I do think Ito may have seen his better days.

He is a tough fighter and I am not sure Shuichiro Yoshino is going to have enough to earn the stoppage, but I think he can demonstrate the importance of having less miles on the clock as he wins a Decision.


Ryan Garcia vs Emmanuel Tagoe

It has been fifteen months since we last saw Ryan Garcia and he proved he is more than just an social media fighter by getting off the canvas to beat Luke Campbell.

Injury and some other issues have kept him out of the ring since then- he has actually had a couple of bouts fall by the wayside in that time.

But now he is back and Ryan Garcia will find himself on the outside looking in with a number of his rivals in big fights. That isn't the worst thing in the world and this is a good chance for Garcia to shake off any ring rust and be much more ready to compete when those said rivals have cleared up their schedules.

On paper this looks a tough test on his return- Emmanuel Tagoe has won thirty-two fights in a row since his debut defeat, but the 33 year old has been out of the ring for longer than Ryan Garcia and his level of opponents have never reached the one that Garcia has in his young career.

I don't think Emmanuel Tagoe will be hard to find and this feels like a fight in which Ryan Garcia will be allowed to re-announce himself to the public. Bigger tests will be ahead, but I think Ryan Garcia will have too much accuracy and power and he is likely to put a showcase together after perhaps a feeling out First Round.

There is a toughness from fighters coming out of Ghana and Emmanuel Tagoe has to be respected, but I think he is going to have plenty of ring rust of his own and that can see Ryan Garcia get him out of there relatively quickly.


Undercard
The main fight on the undercard that is worthy of a second look is the crossroads bout between a couple of tough veterans.

Gabriel Rosado is coming off a defeat to Jaime Mungaia, but he continues to show his toughness in the ring and I think he may still have a bit more about him than Shane Moseey Jr.

It has been almost a year since Shane Mosley Jr saw his latest run of wins ended by Jason Quigley and I do think he has struggled whenever he has stepped up his competition. Toughness is not to be discounted, but Gabriel Rosado has plenty of that too and I think has just shown he can still offer something at a high gatekeeper level against any opponent.

Both will put a solid undercard fight together, but Gabriel Rosado may be able to just nick this one on the scorecards and perhaps line himself up for another big crack at a top name in the months ahead.

Shane Mosley Jr has shown he has plenty of heart like his father, but the skillset is not the same and I expect him to come up short again.

MY PICKS: Gennady Golovkin Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Junto Nakatani Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Shuichiro Yoshino to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Ryan Garcia to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gabriel Rosado to Win Between Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Friday, 9 April 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 9-12)

The GameWeeks are running out in the Fantasy Premier League game, but the frustration for my choices looks like being a season-long event and I am already looking forward to taking part in Euro 2020 Fantasy games and then preparing for the 2021/22 season.

Hopefully that will be a time when we are allowed back inside the Stadiums- I have missed Old Trafford massively- and the season should also be one that is much more familiar in the way it is broken down compared with this congested campaign.

It is obviously going to be a one season return to normality as the following season will bring us the Winter World Cup for the first time which is due to start in November in Qatar and that will mean another 'different looking' season with the way things are managed by the Associations around Europe and the rest of the world.

I will get into my GW31 team below, but first a few thoughts as to how I think the Premier League games will go this weekend.


Fulham v Wolves Pick: The Premier League returns on Friday night and this looks to be one of a really important game for Fulham as they look to put pressure on those teams above them in the table.

After blowing the 0-1 lead at Aston Villa with a late capitulation, Fulham are now 3 points from safety and they have played a game more than the majority of their rivals around them. A win on Friday would actually take them out of the bottom three for a day or two at least, but Fulham have been struggling for form and have been beaten in their last 3 at Craven Cottage.

However, Fulham have to be targeting this as a fixture they can win when facing a Wolves team who are in mid-table and struggling for consistency. Wolves have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games, but they have been tougher to beat on their travels and I think that gives them every chance of earning a positive result.

The underlying stats have certainly suggested Wolves have been a touch unfortunate not to have picked up more points of late and certainly fail to secure a couple of wins over the last month. They created a huge amount of chances against Aston Villa and West Ham United, while also had the better of play against Liverpool, but Wolves earned just a single point from those fixtures.

A lack of goals has been a concern without Raul Jimenez, but they at least showed a little more composure in the final third in the loss to West Ham United on Easter Monday. That will offer Wolves encouragement as they head to West London and I am surprised they are the underdog by such a margin considering Fulham's form and the likely absence of Ademola Lookman.

A draw can't be ruled out, but Fulham may have to take more risks than Wolves and that could leave them open for the pace that the visitors have. Wolves have drawn at Newcastle United and Aston Villa recently and they are certainly capable of at least earning that kind of result here, although the chances being created of late could see Wolves finally break through and earn a vital win to virtually secure Premier League Football for another season.


Manchester City v Leeds United Pick: You can't underestimate the fact that Manchester City will make changes to their first eleven and will clearly be focused on the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg to come during the week, but this is a deep squad. Any changes that will be made will still produce a strong starting eleven as Manchester City showed in their dominating 0-2 win at Leicester City last weekend.

They will also benefit from the fact that Leeds United will look to play an open game and I think Manchester City will be able to expose any holes that are left behind.

In saying that I expect Leeds United to play their part here with an attacking approach likely to cause Manchester City some problems as Manchester United, Southampton and Borussia Dortmund have found in recent visits to the Etihad Stadium. The style implement by Marcelo Bielsa means Leeds United will press from the front and any lack of focus from the hosts will be punished.

However, some have suggested there is a naivety to the Leeds United approach which has left them vulnerable to the counter attack. They have certainly been exposed by some of the top teams in the Premier League and Leeds United have conceded at least three goals at Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Arsenal already this season.

Manchester City might not be dealing with the clean sheets they had been producing, but this is a team that creates chances and score goals. Even if some key players are rested, the likes of Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero will come in and they are good enough to break down this Leeds United team in what could be a really good watch on Saturday lunchtime for the neutrals.

Of the 8 away League defeats suffered by Leeds United, 6 have come by two or more goal margins and I think that will be the case on Saturday too. They may find a way to goal, but Manchester City should be able to create enough chances to overcome a team managed by someone that Pep Guardiola greatly admires.

There may be quite a few goals on show in this fixture, but Manchester City should have the better of things in a high-scoring game to maintain momentum ahead of the Second Leg against Borussia Dortmund coming up.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: If results had gone against Liverpool last weekend you could easily have made a case for the Champions League having a much bigger priority for the club over the Premier League. Even now the fans may feel the Champions League is the best route back into the same competition next season, but Liverpool have closed to within 3 points of the top four in the Premier League and so a strong team should be selected for this League game.

Losing 3-1 in Madrid may also have made it more important for Liverpool to keep the pressure on those teams above them by winning before the likes of West Ham United, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur play.

It will also be a morale boosting win for Liverpool having lost 6 Premier League games in a row at Anfield, especially as they will be hosting Real Madrid here on Wednesday. Another home defeat may just have the players feeling they can't overturn the deficit, but a win on Saturday will be a boost at just the right time and they may just be facing Aston Villa at a good time.

The visitors have looked desperate at the back so I do think this Liverpool team will create chances against them, while the return of Diogo Jota has given Liverpool another strong attacking option. The Portuguese star has played well since returning and I do think Liverpool will create chances against this Aston Villa defence which has a better defensive record than the underlying statistics suggests they should have.

Aston Villa can cause problems for the Liverpool defence with the attacking pace they have, but Jack Grealish's absence would be a big blow. Even without him there will be opportunities for Aston Villa, but perhaps not as frequent as they would like and Liverpool should create chances to win this fixture.

I expect Liverpool will need to score at least two goals to win this game and earn the confidence boosting victory that will at least give them some belief before facing Real Madrid again during the week. I think the return of Jota gives them another threat in the final third and I think Aston Villa will offer up enough for Liverpool to do that in this League game.


Crystal Palace v Chelsea Pick: The defeat to West Brom last weekend may have been one that can inspire Chelsea to a focused and strong end to the 2020/21 season.

They are still on course for a top four finish with their own destiny in their control, while Chelsea have a FA Cup Semi Final to look forward to next weekend. The 2-0 win over Porto during the week puts Chelsea in a commanding position when it comes to the Champions League Quarter Final tie too, although Thomas Tuchel can't afford another poor result in the Premier League with rivals West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool pushing for a top four finish too.

Chelsea have not been as tight defensively as their overall clean sheets have suggested over the last two months, but this is a team creating chances. They will be encouraged by the defensive vulnerability that Crystal Palace keep displaying and a solid record at Selhurst Park will also give the Chelsea players confidence of getting back to winning ways in the Premier League.

One concern for Chelsea is the lack of goals being scored away from home which is putting pressure on them to keep picking up the clean sheets. In only 1 of the last 10 away Premier League games played have Chelsea scored more than one goal, but they do have 3 clean sheets in their 5 away League games played under Thomas Tuchel.

They did score twice away from Stamford Bridge during the week and Chelsea have been creating some solid chances away from home. However I think the main focus after last Saturday will be restricting Crystal Palace and there is every chance they can do that when you think The Eagles had failed to score in 3 home League games before the narrow win over West Brom.

There were plenty of goals shared out when Crystal Palace hosted Chelsea last season, but this one looks to be a tighter affair thanks to the tactics likely employed by Thomas Tuchel. Roy Hodgson won't want to give too much away either and Chelsea are likely to win a competitive fixture which does not feature more than three goals in total.


Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: This is a huge game at the bottom of the Premier League and the winner will feel they are taking a big step towards safety even with seven games left to play this season.

Both Burnley and Newcastle United took the lead in their respective fixtures last weekend and ended up scoring twice, but neither picked up a win to remain in relegation trouble. Burnley blew a 0-2 lead at Southampton in a 3-2 defeat, but Newcastle United may feel they have a bit of momentum having scored a late equaliser to earn a point against Tottenham Hotspur at St James' Park.

Steve Bruce could be boosted by a returning Callum Wilson this weekend and Allan Saint-Maximin may be able to offer more minute son the pitch which should make Newcastle United more dangerous going forward. They will certainly feel this Burnley defence has been far from secure considering the kind of chances they have allowed in recent games and Newcastle United were very good last weekend.

That game was at home though and Newcastle United have looked more vulnerable away from home which makes this a more difficult game to read. Burnley have been churning out some positive results and they haven't been bad going forward, but the underlying numbers suggest they have been more fortunate than they have perhaps deserved.

They have looked like a team who can score goals, but who will offer chances for opponents too, and I think this is likely to be a high-scoring game as long as there is a first half game to just loosen defences. Both managers would likely take a point before kick off, but an early goal can change the mindset completely and neither Burnley nor Newcastle United look capable of keeping clean sheets at the moment.

A 1-1 scoreline is a real runner, but I think there may be at least one more goal shared out between them this weekend.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: This is a really important fixture in the Premier League this weekend and the outcome is going to have serious implications as to how the Champions League places are likely to be handed out at the end of the season.

Both Leicester City and West Ham United will be considered surprising top four teams going into the final eight League games, but neither is anywhere near guaranteed of playing Champions League Football next season. Now they are here, both Brendan Rodgers and David Moyes will be looking for a strong end to the season to offer their respective clubs a memorable campaign and the fans something to look forward to if they are able to return to the stands in August.

The importance of the game will not be lost on either team.

A win for Leicester City may see the team begin to feel they can pull away from the teams battling for the final Champions League berth, but a win for West Ham United would pull The Foxes back and have other rivals believing there are two spots up for grabs down the stretch.

It is hard to separate them considering how well West Ham United have been playing at home, but also how difficult Leicester City have been to beat on their travels. The goals being scored by The Hammers will be encouraging, but Leicester City will look at the defensive numbers and the return of James Maddison could see them pick the home defence.

Games between Leicester City and West Ham United have tended to be high-scoring and the last four have all featured at least three goals shared out. 4 of the last 5 in East London hosted by West Ham United have also featured at least three goals shared out and I think both teams are likely to have success when going forward in this one.

A 1-1 scoreline might not be one that either team would be that disappointed with, but I think both managers will understand that there is an opportunity to increase their own chances of Champions League Football and dent a rival at the same time. I don't think either will discourage their team from getting forward and I feel this is a fixture that could easily produce a vital 2-1 result either way.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: Results last weekend did not just open the door for Tottenham Hotspur to get closer to the top four, but also gave Manchester United an opportunity to take command of one of the Champions League places on offer from the Premier League standings.

Both of these teams fell 1-0 behind to relegation threatened opponents, but only Manchester United were able to secure the three points as they beat Brighton at Old Trafford. Tottenham Hotspur conceded very late in their 2-2 draw at Newcastle United, but Jose Mourinho has had a week to prepare his team and should have a couple of key defenders back that can only help Spurs.

They are also facing a Manchester United team that had a tough away game in Spain on Thursday evening and who have looked a touch fatigued in recent weeks.

You could label both of these teams as being inconsistent in terms of performances, although it is Manchester United who have continued to find a way to churn out more positive results. They have also been difficult to play away from Old Trafford as Manchester United have been able to employ counter attacking tactics to good effect in those matches and that has seen them lose a single domestic away game in fifteen months.

A late goal secured a 1-1 draw here when the season resumed after the three month suspension of play last June and I think Manchester United will make life tough for Tottenham Hotspur. The extra time off is a benefit for the home team who have an in-form Harry Kane leading the line and with some pace and quality around him that makes Tottenham Hotspur dangerous, although Jose Mourinho remains a cautious manager.

That caution is likely going to see Mourinho look to avoid leaving counter attacking space and it likely means we see a tight game between these top four chasing clubs. The game played at Old Trafford this season did finish 1-6, but a very early Penalty for Manchester United and a relatively early Anthony Martial sending off saw that fixture move in a direction that was hard to envision.

I expect this one to be much tighter and the last 3 Premier League fixtures hosted by Spurs against Manchester United have ended with less than three goals shared out. Neither manager is likely want to give too much away in this one either and I think it is another tight fixture between Big Six clubs that looks to be in the offing.


Sheffield United v Arsenal Pick: A seething Mikel Arteta will likely be fully focused on preparing his Arsenal team for the Europa League Quarter Final Second Leg against Slavia Prague which is to be played in the Czech Republic next Thursday. After missing a host of chances, Arsenal finally broke the deadlock in the First Leg with just five minutes remaining, but a late goal was conceded which means a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium was the outcome.

You could see how irritated Arteta was at full time and I expect changes to be made to the Arsenal starting eleven with the players involved next Thursday given a bit of a rest.

That raises doubts in this fixture and makes me feel Arsenal are a very short price and especially with the uncertainty about their team selection in mind. However, Sheffield United have been very poor all season and they can't be trusted to take advantage considering the amount of chances they have been allowing in recent games and with a struggle to score enough goals evident ever since The Blades returned to the top flight in August 2019.

I'll be watching The Masters when this game kicks off on Sunday evening and I really don't have any serious convictions about this fixture. A narrow away win is perhaps the most likely outcome, but this is one of those Premier League games that has very little riding on the result and with Arsenal most likely focusing their real attention elsewhere.


West Brom v Southampton Pick: Both of these teams conceded two goals in their last Premier League games played last weekend, but West Brom and Southampton showed real attacking intent in beating Chelsea and Burnley respectively. The two teams both had to come from behind to earn those wins, which will add to the confidence, but it does feel the Southampton performance is arguably more sustainable.

All credit has to be given to West Brom for the win at Stamford Bridge, but it was a 'perfect storm' of events that landed in their favour. They were 1-0 down before Thiago Silva was sent off and West Brom showed the kind of clinical finishing which has not been evident from them through the majority of the season.

Of course this result could spark them, but West Brom continued to look vulnerable defensively despite playing against an opponent with ten men. That has been a large part of the issue for West Brom as they have struggled to get closer to those teams outside of the relegation zone and they are now going up against a Southampton team who have scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in all competitions.

Southampton also showed how much they still believe in their manager by coming from 0-2 down to beat Burnley 3-2 at St Mary's last weekend.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's team had been hurt by injuries and that contributed to their poor Premier League run, but Southampton look much healthier now. They have attacking options and will head to The Hawthorns with confidence and have won their last 3 fixtures played on this ground.

The Saints have not looked as strong defensively as they did earlier this season, but they are creating plenty of chances and I think they have a team that can secure another big result on Monday. The first goal will be important, but Southampton look the more likely to earn that on recent form and I think they can win here.

It will be a result that gives them real momentum to take into the FA Cup Semi Final.

West Brom have not scored in their last 2 Premier League games at The Hawthorns and I feel Southampton will have too much for them.


Brighton v Everton Pick: The home team are the favourite in this fixture, but Brighton are hard to trust with very few wins secured at the Amex Stadium this season. Their underlying statistics have been very impressive, but Brighton are still struggling for consistency in the final third and that makes it hard to really believe in them with any confidence.

I also think Everton are being a touch under-rated with their results influencing the prices on this fixture.

In reality they should have beaten Burnley and Crystal Palace in recent Premier League games and if they had, Everton would have likely been the narrow favourite to win here. Poor finishing has let them down, but the team has looked healthier which makes them stronger.

Add in the fact that Brighton have continued to struggle in the final third and you can make a case for Everton winning here, but Graham Potter's team are hard to read from game to game. The Seagulls could certainly play their part here with the attacking intent they continue to approach games with, but Everton will also feel they can create chances and I think this could be a high-scoring game like the one played between the teams at Goodison Park earlier this season.

Five goals were shared out when these teams met at the Amex Stadium last season too and this is another Premier League game that could be ignited with a first half goal.

MY PICKS: Wolves + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals
Burnley-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals
West Ham United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals
Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Everton Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 31
In a usual Fantasy Premier League season we would be preparing for one or maybe two Double GameWeeks at this point of the campaign, but the big Doubles look to have passed us by.

GameWeek 32 will give one team a double, Tottenham Hotspur, while two other fixtures have yet to secure dates. Those would have landed in GameWeek 37, but there is still ongoing talks of delaying a round of Premier League fixtures which would allow all teams to host at least one game where fans are allowed back inside the Stadiums.

Those decisions are yet to be made and it does make it more difficult to manage when the best time to play the Wild Card is set to be. Any changes to the schedule will mean the two FA Cup Finalists have an extra Double GameWeek which was not envisioned before these talks commenced and I want to hold onto my Wild Card through the FA Cup Semi Finals which are played next week.

While I do think there are some big changes I can make to my squad to get a lot closer to the top 100K, I think those aren't so desperate at this moment with a team that can cover the next two weeks through to GW33 when hopefully the remainder of the season will be set out much more clearly.

Importantly it is also the weekend when the League Cup Final is set to be played and that will mean four teams are not in action at all (of which I have a huge number of players).


That Wild Card decision makes it 'easier' to manage the Free Transfers through the next two GameWeeks, although I have seemingly failed to get on the right side of my choices for much of the season. Not for the first time I have been hurt by leaving one of my top scorers as my third sub, a decision which was compounded last week by my first sub leaving play injured before the 60th minute mark.

Too many single pointers have hurt my Overall Rank throughout the season, one which has produced too many strange results and inconsistencies and I am looking forward to a more settled campaign next time around.


Last week I decided to bring in Edouard Mendy and that turned out to be one of the poorest decisions of the season on the outcome of the transfer, although it was the right play on paper. You can't get too down on yourself when you think that is the case and I don't regret it with the 2-5 defeat suffered by Chelsea against West Brom being yet another strange result we have seen in this congested season.

With a Wild Card coming up soon, any transfers I make now can be seen as 'one week punts', although I am looking at players who will likely take part in both of the next two GameWeeks to get the maximum from them.

Last week I spoke about my disappointment I could not bring in Marcos Alonso and the Spanish left back returned an assist as he continues to move into strong attacking positions. The feeling is that he will be used in both Premier League games to be played by Chelsea in GameWeek 31 and 32 with Ben Chilwell used for the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Porto and the FA Cup Semi Final against Manchester City next weekend.

Thomas Tuchel has tended to use Alonso against those teams that are likely going to sit back and I think that is the case with Crystal Palace this weekend and, to a lesser extent, Brighton who visit Stamford Bridge next.

Another interesting player that is showing improvement is Trent Alexander-Arnold who has something to prove after being dropped from the last England squad, but Liverpool have two tougher games than Chelsea on paper. Add in their situation in the Champions League and I think Alonso makes more more sense at this point than Alexander-Arnold, although the latter may be more of a play when it comes to working out the Wild Card team later this month.


One player who is getting his last chance for my squad this week is Raheem Sterling who has clearly been out of favour at Manchester City since the derby defeat to Manchester United last month. Since that fixture, Sterling has played just 27 minutes in three Premier League games, while he was also benched in the Champions League Quarter Final First Leg against Borussia Dortmund during the week.

Raheem Sterling did start in the FA Cup win at Everton, but both Manchester City goals came after he was substituted and I do think Pep Guardiola has more trust in other options.

However, the manager has spoken about keeping his squad as fresh as possible and the home game against Leeds United looks a very good chance to bring Sterling back in for a start and give Riyad Mahrez a rest following back to back starts this past week.

I think I am so convinced that I am going to give Sterling the Captain armband as a differential maker this week with many jumping off the ownership of the England international. He is the most likely player that I am going to move next week with the target being another Tottenham Hotspur player to treble up on their Double GameWeek, but I am hoping there is a big performance in Sterling against an open Leeds United team at the Etihad Stadium.

It is risky backing any player that is managed by Pep Guardiola outside of Kevin De Bruyne for the Captaincy choice, but it came down to a pretty straight choice for me between Sterling and Diogo Jota. The latter is perhaps more likely to be rested considering Liverpool's situation in the Champions League and with Roberto Firmino capable of coming in, while I will likely hand the Vice Captaincy to a more secure choice as a starter.

Like last week, I was also tempted by Marcos Alonso as Captain if bringing him in against a goal-shy Crystal Palace, but picking a player from the team with the best underlying stats as an attacking force in the last six weeks is hard to ignore.

Tuesday, 9 April 2019

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 9-11)

We are down to the final eight teams in both the Champions League and Europa League for the 2018/19 season and those Quarter Final ties are going to be played over the next ten days.

With UEFA going back to the formula they used a few years ago in drawing the Quarter Final ties and Semi Final ties at the same time, managers and fans can begin to plot the paths and decide which teams they believe will go on and compete in the Finals.

I wish I could say I was looking forward to doing the same, but the way things have panned out in the Champions League I really am beginning to fear the 'worse case scenario Final' is ready to come round. That is obviously Manchester City v Liverpool as the belief that two of Manchester United's biggest rivals are about to split the top trophies comes sharply into view.

Juventus, Barcelona and the other two English representatives in the Champions League Quarter Final may have something to say about that though.

Three of the four ties really do come with very strong storylines in the Champions League in this Round, but I have to suggest Liverpool are huge favourites to see off a Porto team they beat 5-0 in the Last 16 last season.

Ajax and Manchester United produced stunning away performances in the Last 16 Second Legs played last month, but both are considerable underdogs when they face Juventus and Barcelona respectively. Both also play at home this week and you have to think they can't afford to have the losses suffered in those Stadiums in the First Leg of the Last 16 ties if they are going to have a chance to progress to an unexpected Semi Final later this month.

Most will have Manchester City down as a strong favourite to beat Tottenham Hotspur too, but I think there is some intrigue attached to that tie. The current English Champions are playing a lot of football at the moment and you would think that is going to catch up with them, while Spurs are a team that can compete with the very best on their day.

Again the First Leg is of paramount importance to the underdog and if Tottenham Hotspur can take a lead to the Eithad Stadium next Wednesday then I do think they would have every chance of the upset in the tie.


In the Europa League it does look like Chelsea have been given a great chance to reach the Final and have two shots to make the Champions League having moved back into the top four. They should get the better of Slavia Prague and will be favoured to beat either Benfica or Eintracht Frankfurt, especially after the English clubs dominated two of the best Bundesliga teams in the Champions League.

Arsenal's path looks much trickier as they need to overcome Napoli and then either Valencia or Villarreal and it would not be a huge upset if they fail to reach the Semi Final. The First Leg in North London this week is vital for Arsenal if they are going to have a chance of knocking out a Napoli team that may be focusing on the Europa League with their Champions League spot virtually secure from their League form.


Below you can read my thoughts on the Champions League and Europa League First Legs to be played this week- I have covered all of the ties involving the English teams as well as the Quarter Final between Ajax and Juventus in the Champions League.


Liverpool v Porto Pick: Late goals have kept the momentum behind Liverpool as far as the Premier League title challenge is concerned, but the recent performances have come under the strain of expectation from a fanbase desperate for a first English title since 1990.

It hasn't been a real help for Liverpool, but they are battling hard and winning games breeds confidence more often than not.

On Tuesday they return to the Champions League and I think there is going to be a little more freedom about Liverpool. This is a team who have played some of their best football in the Champions League over the last eighteen months and Anfield has proved to be a very difficult environment for teams to come in and compete against them.

They had won 5 in a row in the Champions League at Anfield prior to the goalless draw with Bayern Munich, but I am not sure Porto can be as defensively sound as the German Champions were that day.

Porto lost in Rome in the last Round and had to turn things around at home, but they will be wary of Liverpool having been crushed by them in the Second Round last season. They did manage a goalless draw at Anfield, but that had a lot to do with Liverpool having a 0-5 lead from the First Leg and I think the intensity will be much greater for the home team in this one.

Jurgen Klopp is going to want a healthy lead to take to Portugal next week so Liverpool can completely focus on the big Premier League game with Chelsea this weekend. Having a big lead could also give the manager a chance to rest some key players for the League fixtures ahead and I think Porto are the ideal team for Liverpool to face in the Quarter Final as they fight on two fronts.

I have to give Porto some respect having had a 6 game unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League before losing in Rome last time out. However they have benefited from kind draws and this is a huge test for a team who have been beaten by Benfica on multiple occasions already this season.

The visitors will want to make sure there is all to play for in the Second Leg next week, but I think Liverpool are too good for them and can win by a healthy margin.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: This is an intriguing Champions League Quarter Final as Manchester City have to face another Premier League club for the second season in a row at this stage of the competition. Last season they were beaten at Anfield 3-0 in the First Leg and could not recover, but Manchester City are strong favourites to see off Tottenham Hotspur.

Kevin De Bruyne downplayed the significance of the game being held at Tottenham Hotspur's new Stadium, but I really don't know what kind of factor this will be. The atmosphere will be far more intense than it would have been if the game was played at Wembley Stadium although I do think there are other factors at play in the First Leg.

The main one is the issue of potential fatigue as Tottenham Hotspur are well rested compared with Manchester City who had the tough FA Cup Semi Final win over Brighton to get through on Saturday. At the same time Tottenham Hotspur have not played since last Wednesday so if there is a time for them to snap their losing run to the defending Premier League Champions then this feels like it.

If both Kyle Walker and Sergio Aguero can't start it makes life that much tougher for Manchester City with injuries in defensive areas beginning to pile up while Gabriel Jesus is simply not as clinical as the Argentinian he is replacing. In games out of the international break Manchester City have been more functional than blistering as they are looking to manage their way through games and I think Tottenham Hotspur are a good enough team to take advantage.

I am not sure Spurs have enough to win the game, but I think they have the pace and power to cause significant problems for Manchester City. The poor run of 3 straight losses to Manchester City is a mental obstacle to overcome, but the schedule could not have worked much better for Tottenham Hotspur and the fans should bring their best to inspire the players with the first Champions League game held in the new Stadium.

It is not easy to oppose Manchester City, but I would be surprised if they are able to put this tie to bed in the First Leg. With that in mind I will recommend backing Tottenham Hotspur with the start on the Asian Handicap that will return half the stake in the event of a Manchester City win by a single goal margin.


Ajax v Juventus Pick: Fixtures like this are what the Champions League have been all about as the four time European Champions Ajax take on two time Winners Juventus in the Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the fact that Ajax are not the force of old, but this season could be a perfect storm for them as a group of talented youngsters have come together to produce a strong campaign. This group is not likely going to be together for very long, but they are in line to win a first Dutch title since 2014 and have already reached the Champions League Quarter Final for the first time since 2003.

It has not exactly been an easy path through the competition either as Ajax negotiated three Qualifying Rounds and have come out of a Group containing Bayern Munich and Benfica. The most memorable performance came in the Last 16 though as Ajax demolished Real Madrid 1-4 in the Santiago Bernebeu to take their place in the Quarter Final, although Juventus present a whole different level of challenge.

Cristiano Ronaldo is potentially missing for the Italian Champions, which is a significant blow, and there are some injury concerns in the squad that will raise doubts about the visitors. However Juventus remain in strong form and I do think the veteran experience is going to edge out the youthful exuberance of Ajax in this Quarter Final.

Juventus have previous for that when they beat Monaco very comfortably in the Champions League Semi Final in 2017. They won both Legs against a talented young side that season and I think Juventus are going to have a bit too much for Ajax who ran into a Real Madrid team that seemed unconcerned about defending in the last Round.

Defending is a strength for Juventus who have been decent travellers in the Champions League over the last two campaigns. The defeats to Young Boys and Atletico Madrid in back to back games might not suggest that, but Juventus had won 5 in a row away from home in the Champions League prior to those results and I think they will be able to take an advantage back to Turin.

The absence of Ronaldo is a concern, but even then I think Juventus can do enough and I will back them on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw.


Manchester United v Barcelona Pick: It needed something special and a lot of good fortune for Manchester United to progress past Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16 and I think they will need to ride their luck at times if they are going to reach a first Semi Final in the Champions League since the 2010/11 season.

Let's be honest for one moment- PSG bottled the Second Leg as much as Manchester United won it and it started with a ridiculous back pass to send Romelu Lukaku through on goal and then a blunder from Gianluigi Buffon for a second goal.

Even then Manchester United needed the intervention of VAR to secure an injury time penalty in the 1-3 win in Paris on a crazy evening full of emotion. I was just as giddy as anyone out there, but in the cold light of day you do realise it is going to take something outrageous for Manchester United to beat the other big guns in the competition.

Facing Barcelona in the Quarter Final is about as tough a draw as they could have received and the First Leg is crucial for Manchester United. Produce the same result as the Paris Saint-Germain Home Leg and I think you can draw the curtain on the competition, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may be able to take more risks knowing he has been given the permanent job as manager of the club.

Ultimately Manchester United have to take risks if they want a lead to take to the Nou Camp next week and that means trying to get after a Barcelona defence that is far from watertight. The problem is leaving yourself exposed to the supreme attacking talents the visitors will be able to put on the field even if Barcelona have not been the best travellers in the Champions League in recent years.

A rested Manchester United should cause more problems on the counter attack for Barcelona with the pace in the final third. I do think that will be the case on Wednesday, although Barcelona are rightly favoured with their dominance in midfield likely leading to plenty of chances.

Manchester United scoring 1 goal in 5 home Champions League games is a real concern, but I don't believe Barcelona can keep a clean sheet, although the same applies to the home team. A 1-1 scoreline might actually suit both teams, but I think there will be enough chances in this game at both ends of the field to see at least three goals shared out in what is a classic European tie between two giants of the sport.


Arsenal v Napoli Pick: The Europa League might have been derided in some quarters in England, but this has become a competition of real importance with the opportunity of returning to the Champions League for the winner. With that bonus now attached to the trophy, English clubs have begun to really take this competition seriously and we have seen Manchester United win it in 2017 and Arsenal reach the Semi Final in 2018.

After losing 1-0 at Everton some Arsenal fans may feel the Europa League path is the best one back into the Champions League, but they have received a very tough draw for the Quarter Final.

Napoli don't look as strong as previous seasons, but there is still plenty of quality in the side and unlike Arsenal they are almost certainly secured of a top four finish in their domestic League. That means they can perhaps put more stock into trying to win the Europa League by resting players between this Quarter Final and I am anticipating a very close tie.

Neither team travels as well as they play at home so Arsenal could be frustrated they have had to switch the venue of the First and Second Leg as Chelsea are playing in London next week. UEFA didn't want both playing at home on the same MatchDay, so Arsenal have been forced to play the Home Leg first when they clearly would have preferred it the other way around.

In the last two Rounds Arsenal have recovered First Leg deficits at the Emirates Stadium, but I think the situation is similar albeit playing at home first this time. Unai Emery will know Arsenal need a lead to take to Naples so I imagine the intensity will be the same as if they were trailing from the First Leg.

Arsenal have been very good at home, although defensively they remain vulnerable. Teams might not have taken advantage, but Napoli are capable and I would not be surprised if they take an away goal back with them.

However I think Arsenal are good enough to edge the First Leg. Napoli have lost 2 of their 5 away European ties this season including a defeat in England to Liverpool. They have also failed to win in Crvena Zvezda, while recent form has been inconsistent. At least Arsenal have remained strong at home with a 7 game winning run to extend here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to have a lead going into next week's Second Leg.


Slavia Prague v Chelsea Pick: I don't think anyone associated with Chelsea will be making assumptions about how far they can go in the Europa League, but the fans have to be excited with the way the draw has panned out for them. It looks like Chelsea are facing the weakest of the teams remaining in the last eight of the competition, but overlooking Slavia Prague would be a mistake.

In the last few seasons Slavia Prague have really improved both domestically and in Europe and their win over Sevilla in the Last 16 is an exceptional performance.

They did need Extra Time to secure the win and Slavia Prague have won just 2 of their 6 home European ties this season. The side are unbeaten in those games, but it is clear that Slavia Prague still have a way to go to bridge the gap to the very top teams in Europe and will need to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to see off Chelsea in this Quarter Final.

It looks a long shot, especially as Chelsea have been very comfortable in the Europa League so far this season. The Blues have won 9 of 10 Europa League ties and they have begun to score a few goals in those wins having beaten Malmo 5-1 and Dynamo Kiev 8-0 on aggregate in the Knock Out Rounds.

You have to believe that Slavia Prague will know their best chance of winning this tie is by having an advantage to take to West London next weekend and that could make this a fairly open First Leg. Chelsea have shown they can score goals away from home in the Europa League too and I think the two teams could combine for three or more on the day.

I'd be surprised if Chelsea do not have enough to win this tie and move into the Semi Final, but the First Leg could be a competitive outing and I will look for goals to be shared out on the evening.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Juventus - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365
Manchester United-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor
Slavia Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 9th)

In previous years I have not made a lot of selections from the Indian Wells and Miami tournaments played in March, but that was not the case this season and two more winning events have been added to what has been a really strong opening three months of the 2019 season.

Last week I felt I needed to have another small break with only two events being played in Charleston and Monterrey ahead of the start of the clay court season which is usually one of my favourite times of the Tennis Tour. I've always had a soft spot for the French Open and the build to that event will begin in Monte Carlo next week which is the first really big tournament played on the European clay courts.

We should see some of the top ATP players in action in Monte Carlo, but this week we have four events being played with two each on the ATP and WTA Tours. The one in Marrakech is the main focus for me this week, although the two WTA events in Bogota and Lugano are of interest one we get into the Second Round and beyond.

The ATP tournament being played in Houston is a clay court event, but it plays much faster than the European clay courts and you see a number of the top American names taking part there and in general dominate that event.


Below you can see my opening selections from the Tennis tournaments being played this week. At the bottom of the thread I have updated the season records after two successful events in Indian Wells and Miami and I am looking to keep the run going this week.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Adrian Menendez Maceiras: A return to the Tour after a month off celebrating becoming a father for the first time is in store for Fernando Verdasco who missed both the Indian Wells and Miami Masters events.

At this stage of his career it could be easy for Verdasco to begin contemplating call time and settling down with his family. However marriage and fatherhood has been a real shot in the arm for many players in recent years and seen them rediscover their love of the sport and I think Verdasco is still someone who enjoys competing on the Tour.

Regardless of that, I have made the point that Verdasco can be a difficult person to trust with an ability to blow hot and cold in between sets within matches. A first match back on the clay courts shouldn't be a big problem for him, but he is facing an opponent who has won a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw.

Adrian Menendez Maceiras is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and the Spaniard has yet to really make his mark on the Tour. He has yet to win a competitive match on the main ATP Tour and Menendez Maceiras has gone 0-4 while struggling with both his serve and return.


You would expect Spanish players to be very comfortable on the clay courts, but Menendez Maceiras has not really produced great numbers on the surface. In the last couple of years Verdasco has broken at close to 30% of the return games he has played on the clay courts and I think that kind of level would be very difficult for Menendez Maceiras to compete with.

The relatively long lay off from the Tour is a concern for me when backing Verdasco especially as I can't imagine he has spent too much time hitting balls on the court with a new baby to care for. However I think he can produce the stronger tennis of the two players in this First Round match in Marrakech and I will look for Verdasco to cover a big number against his young compatriot.


Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: One of these Argentinian players has just reached a peak World Ranking at the beginning of March, while the other is a veteran who is no longer the force he once was. Carlos Berlocq has made the main draw in Marrakech thanks to a Lucky Loser spot opening up for him after he was beaten in the Qualifiers and he is closer to exiting the top 200 of the World Rankings rather than returning to the top 100.

He faces Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round in Marrakech and Londero is coming in off a very strong Golden Swing on the clay courts of South America which saw him pick up a title in Cordoba.

In the last couple of years Berlocq has been playing on the Challenger Tour more than the main ATP Tour, although he does not have dominant numbers in those matches either. The return of serve has continued to be a big weapon for Berlocq and helped him make up for what is a vulnerable serve, but there has been a clear dent in those return numbers when the veteran has played in main ATP Tour matches.

Carlos Berlocq has lost both matches played on the clay courts on the main Tour this season and the feeling is that Juan Ignacio Londero has stepped up his play and ready to have another strong push on the clay in the coming weeks. I have seen other players produce strong returns on the Golden Swing and fail to back it up on the clay once we hit this part of the season, but Londero looks to have the game that should have a positive impact in the run to the French Open.

This is the first season that Londero has really started to play main ATP events and he has performed well on the clay courts including taking the title home in Cordoba. His strong record on the Challenger circuit has seen him produce better numbers than Berlocq and so far Londero has taken the form onto the ATP Tour with success.

His serve is a big weapon for him and Londero is holding 80% of his service games on the clay courts, while also breaking in 25% of the return games. It is enough to believe he can hold the edge over Berlocq and I think he can cover the number in a win over the veteran he may have seen while growing up and wishing to become a professional tennis player in Argentina.


Pablo Andujar + 2.5 games v Federico Delbonis: When I was putting my research together for this First Round match in Marrakech I actually though the layers would have this set as a pick 'em. Instead I am a little surprised that Federico Delbonis is considered a fairly strong favourite to see off Pablo Andujar and I am going to be behind the underdog with the start on the handicap.

In the last couple of years Delbonis has been playing at a higher level than Andujar who has been recovering his World Ranking on the Tour following injury issues. That has meant having to play at the lower level of the Tour although Andujar has been successful enough to move past Delbonis as far as the World Rankings go.

The Spaniard has won back to back Challenger events on the clay courts and that amount of tennis has to be a slight concern when going into this kind of match. There will have been limited time to recharge the batteries although Andujar has to be respected for the level of performance he has put together in those wins on the Challenger circuit.

This does look like it could be a close match with Federico Delbonis having a slightly more reliable serve, but Pablo Andujar arguably the better returner taking to the court. The run of wins have to give the latter a real confidence boost while the fact he has won the previous five matches played against Delbonis has to help too.

My feeling is that this is a match that is going to need a third set to separate the two players considering so little is between them. It is the returning of Andujar that I believe can make the difference at the key times though and I will take the games with the underdog and look for him to get very close to winning the match outright.


Laslo Djere - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: After coming through the Qualifiers Lorenzo Sonego is looking to try and put a deep run together in the main draw of this ATP tournament being played in Marrakech. It is not going to be easy to get out of the First Round as he faces an opponent who has reached a career best World Ranking thanks to the exploits produced on the clay courts in South America during the Golden Swing.

An emotional Laslo Djere won the title in Rio de Janeiro and he backed that up by reaching the Semi Final in Sao Paulo too. Returning to the red dirt should be a good time of the season for Djere who has improved his World Ranking to the point where he would be Seeded if the French Open was to begin today.

The performances in South America were very good from Djere and his numbers were significantly improved on the last couple of years on the clay courts. It does make me a little wary to really believe in Djere and expect him to maintain the standards he set across two tournaments, but I would expect the Serbian to get the better of Sonego.

Lorenzo Sonego is Ranked outside the top 100 although that could change at the end of this week and especially if he can win this First Round match. He has played well on the clay courts, but the majority of the matches have come below the main ATP Tour level and he has yet to show he can produce his best consistently when facing some of the better players on the Tour.

The return of serve has been a real issue for Sonego when he has played on the clay courts in main Tour tournaments and it could be the reason he is not able to win this match either. Laslo Djere has held his serve at just under 80% on the clay courts over the last twelve months and his return of serve has produced breaks of serve in 28% of those return games.

Those are some impressive numbers and I will look for Djere to get off to a positive start in Marrakech with a win and a cover over Lorenzo Sonego.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 56.98 Units (543 Units Staked, + 10.49% Yield)