Tennis Picks 2019 (April 9th)

In previous years I have not made a lot of selections from the Indian Wells and Miami tournaments played in March, but that was not the case this season and two more winning events have been added to what has been a really strong opening three months of the 2019 season.

Last week I felt I needed to have another small break with only two events being played in Charleston and Monterrey ahead of the start of the clay court season which is usually one of my favourite times of the Tennis Tour. I've always had a soft spot for the French Open and the build to that event will begin in Monte Carlo next week which is the first really big tournament played on the European clay courts.

We should see some of the top ATP players in action in Monte Carlo, but this week we have four events being played with two each on the ATP and WTA Tours. The one in Marrakech is the main focus for me this week, although the two WTA events in Bogota and Lugano are of interest one we get into the Second Round and beyond.

The ATP tournament being played in Houston is a clay court event, but it plays much faster than the European clay courts and you see a number of the top American names taking part there and in general dominate that event.


Below you can see my opening selections from the Tennis tournaments being played this week. At the bottom of the thread I have updated the season records after two successful events in Indian Wells and Miami and I am looking to keep the run going this week.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Adrian Menendez Maceiras: A return to the Tour after a month off celebrating becoming a father for the first time is in store for Fernando Verdasco who missed both the Indian Wells and Miami Masters events.

At this stage of his career it could be easy for Verdasco to begin contemplating call time and settling down with his family. However marriage and fatherhood has been a real shot in the arm for many players in recent years and seen them rediscover their love of the sport and I think Verdasco is still someone who enjoys competing on the Tour.

Regardless of that, I have made the point that Verdasco can be a difficult person to trust with an ability to blow hot and cold in between sets within matches. A first match back on the clay courts shouldn't be a big problem for him, but he is facing an opponent who has won a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw.

Adrian Menendez Maceiras is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and the Spaniard has yet to really make his mark on the Tour. He has yet to win a competitive match on the main ATP Tour and Menendez Maceiras has gone 0-4 while struggling with both his serve and return.

You would expect Spanish players to be very comfortable on the clay courts, but Menendez Maceiras has not really produced great numbers on the surface. In the last couple of years Verdasco has broken at close to 30% of the return games he has played on the clay courts and I think that kind of level would be very difficult for Menendez Maceiras to compete with.

The relatively long lay off from the Tour is a concern for me when backing Verdasco especially as I can't imagine he has spent too much time hitting balls on the court with a new baby to care for. However I think he can produce the stronger tennis of the two players in this First Round match in Marrakech and I will look for Verdasco to cover a big number against his young compatriot.


Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: One of these Argentinian players has just reached a peak World Ranking at the beginning of March, while the other is a veteran who is no longer the force he once was. Carlos Berlocq has made the main draw in Marrakech thanks to a Lucky Loser spot opening up for him after he was beaten in the Qualifiers and he is closer to exiting the top 200 of the World Rankings rather than returning to the top 100.

He faces Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round in Marrakech and Londero is coming in off a very strong Golden Swing on the clay courts of South America which saw him pick up a title in Cordoba.

In the last couple of years Berlocq has been playing on the Challenger Tour more than the main ATP Tour, although he does not have dominant numbers in those matches either. The return of serve has continued to be a big weapon for Berlocq and helped him make up for what is a vulnerable serve, but there has been a clear dent in those return numbers when the veteran has played in main ATP Tour matches.

Carlos Berlocq has lost both matches played on the clay courts on the main Tour this season and the feeling is that Juan Ignacio Londero has stepped up his play and ready to have another strong push on the clay in the coming weeks. I have seen other players produce strong returns on the Golden Swing and fail to back it up on the clay once we hit this part of the season, but Londero looks to have the game that should have a positive impact in the run to the French Open.

This is the first season that Londero has really started to play main ATP events and he has performed well on the clay courts including taking the title home in Cordoba. His strong record on the Challenger circuit has seen him produce better numbers than Berlocq and so far Londero has taken the form onto the ATP Tour with success.

His serve is a big weapon for him and Londero is holding 80% of his service games on the clay courts, while also breaking in 25% of the return games. It is enough to believe he can hold the edge over Berlocq and I think he can cover the number in a win over the veteran he may have seen while growing up and wishing to become a professional tennis player in Argentina.


Pablo Andujar + 2.5 games v Federico Delbonis: When I was putting my research together for this First Round match in Marrakech I actually though the layers would have this set as a pick 'em. Instead I am a little surprised that Federico Delbonis is considered a fairly strong favourite to see off Pablo Andujar and I am going to be behind the underdog with the start on the handicap.

In the last couple of years Delbonis has been playing at a higher level than Andujar who has been recovering his World Ranking on the Tour following injury issues. That has meant having to play at the lower level of the Tour although Andujar has been successful enough to move past Delbonis as far as the World Rankings go.

The Spaniard has won back to back Challenger events on the clay courts and that amount of tennis has to be a slight concern when going into this kind of match. There will have been limited time to recharge the batteries although Andujar has to be respected for the level of performance he has put together in those wins on the Challenger circuit.

This does look like it could be a close match with Federico Delbonis having a slightly more reliable serve, but Pablo Andujar arguably the better returner taking to the court. The run of wins have to give the latter a real confidence boost while the fact he has won the previous five matches played against Delbonis has to help too.

My feeling is that this is a match that is going to need a third set to separate the two players considering so little is between them. It is the returning of Andujar that I believe can make the difference at the key times though and I will take the games with the underdog and look for him to get very close to winning the match outright.


Laslo Djere - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: After coming through the Qualifiers Lorenzo Sonego is looking to try and put a deep run together in the main draw of this ATP tournament being played in Marrakech. It is not going to be easy to get out of the First Round as he faces an opponent who has reached a career best World Ranking thanks to the exploits produced on the clay courts in South America during the Golden Swing.

An emotional Laslo Djere won the title in Rio de Janeiro and he backed that up by reaching the Semi Final in Sao Paulo too. Returning to the red dirt should be a good time of the season for Djere who has improved his World Ranking to the point where he would be Seeded if the French Open was to begin today.

The performances in South America were very good from Djere and his numbers were significantly improved on the last couple of years on the clay courts. It does make me a little wary to really believe in Djere and expect him to maintain the standards he set across two tournaments, but I would expect the Serbian to get the better of Sonego.

Lorenzo Sonego is Ranked outside the top 100 although that could change at the end of this week and especially if he can win this First Round match. He has played well on the clay courts, but the majority of the matches have come below the main ATP Tour level and he has yet to show he can produce his best consistently when facing some of the better players on the Tour.

The return of serve has been a real issue for Sonego when he has played on the clay courts in main Tour tournaments and it could be the reason he is not able to win this match either. Laslo Djere has held his serve at just under 80% on the clay courts over the last twelve months and his return of serve has produced breaks of serve in 28% of those return games.

Those are some impressive numbers and I will look for Djere to get off to a positive start in Marrakech with a win and a cover over Lorenzo Sonego.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 56.98 Units (543 Units Staked, + 10.49% Yield)