Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 10th April)

It felt like another frustrating day was in the offing at the Monte Carlo Masters, but this time fortune smiled down on the Tennis Picks with some big moments going the way of the players selected.

This was in direct contrast to the opening day and has pushed the total back into a positive number.

The first clay court Picks of the season can be difficult to judge with players adjusting to the red dirt having largely competed on the hard courts to open 2025, but we should see pretty quick improvements in the level, even at this opening Masters tournament in the run towards Roland Garros.

However, saying all that, the Third Round matches scheduled for Thursday look tough and the sole pick is going back in with the defending Champion, even if he let me down a couple of days ago.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Nuno Borges: It took a bit of time to get into his rhythm, but by the end of the Second Round win over Jordan Thompson, Stefanos Tsitsipas was motoring.

This is a venue where Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to find his best tennis and the numbers were up to where he would have wanted them to be at the end of that win over Jordan Thompson.

However, in saying that, the Greek star will be expecting a sterner challenge from Nuno Borges and that in turn means having to come out and play some of his better tennis right from the start of this Third Round match. The defending Champion will have some confidence after a decent couple of months on the Tour and ahead of this clay court part of the year, but this is a tough event and the standard of opponent is taking a big step upwards.

Nuno Borges has two wins under his belt in Monte Carlo, although he was pushed all the way in the Second Round by clay court specialist Pedro Martinez. The opening win over Holger Rune is hard to judge considering the second set retirement that was forced upon the Dane, but Borges will be playing with plenty of belief, even with some mixed results on the surface so far this season.

The World Number 43 is a solid performer on the clay, but he was beaten relatively comfortably by Stefanos Tsitsipas on this surface two years ago. While Nuno Borges has improved since then, this is still a big test on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and it may be just a little too much to ask against Stefanos Tsitsipas who loves playing here.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 2-1, + 0.93 Units (3 Units Staked, + 31% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 10th)

It was a mixed time in the Sunshine Double for the Tennis Picks as the first half of the hard court season came to a close.

Still, I can't really argue with the results through to the start of the clay court season as the build up to the French Open continues. Tournaments have already been played at the opening of the month, but the big names are getting their preparation going when the ATP Tour makes a stop in Monte Carlo for the first Masters on the clay courts ahead of further big stops in Madrid and Rome.

The run up to the French Open will see plenty of tennis being played with both Tours giving players the time to really adjust back onto the clay courts.

It is also a time of the year where some of the players that have enjoyed a lot of success through the first three months of the season may have not have the same level of enjoyment and quality of results on the red dirt. On the other side there are going to be some huge opportunities for the clay court specialists that thrive at this time of the season and I do think it is something to keep in mind when making selections, rather than solely focusing on the season numbers.

I am going to update the season totals in either the Tuesday, or most likely Wednesday, thread at the Mont Carlo Masters.

The opening Tennis Picks from the Monte Carlo Masters and the clay court season overall can be read below.

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: You might not always consider a player out of Great Britain as being a 'clay court specialist', but Cameron Norrie has played some of his best tennis on the surface.

The Monte Carlo Masters can be a tournament filled with surprises, especially early in the event, and it is the only Masters event on the Tour that is not a mandatory one when it comes to the World Rankings. That has sometimes meant it is one that skipped by the top names or one where players do not hang around for too long, but Cameron Norrie may feel he is ready to have a deep run following an early exit in his last appearance in the beautiful surroundings.

Cameron Norrie did not stay in Europe and the Middle East between the Australian Open and the hard court Masters events in North America, but instead chose to join the Golden Swing in South America. It is a decision that has proven to be a good one for a player that put together a 10-1 record, which included picking up a big title in Rio.

In general he did not face too many top players, but splitting two matches with Carlos Alcaraz will have Cameron Norrie feeling confident ahead of the European clay court season.

It was a less successful time for Francisco Cerundolo who has a 4-4 record on the clay courts in 2023, but this is a player that has grown up on the red dirt. He will feel his return game is superior than Cameron Norrie's, but Francisco Cerundolo is going to have to pick up his serving numbers when entering these Masters tournaments.

The record is disappointing when you think of the kind of level of opponents Francisco Cerundolo was drawn to face in the tournaments played on the Golden Swing. Wins in events held during the summer in 2022 helped the confidence of the Argentinian, but this is a tough opening draw in Monte Carlo and I do think Cameron Norrie can frank the form that saw him edge past Francisco Cerundolo in Lyon last year.

A loss to Daniel Evans at the French Open was a disappointing one for Francisco Cerundolo and I think he is beaten by a British player here.

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games v Jack Draper: I am backing one British player on Monday, but I am opposing another when Jack Draper faces Sebastian Baez in the First Round in Monte Carlo.

This is another match between a Brit and an Argentine player, but this time I am looking for Sebastian Baez to show off his clay court prowess.

I do like Jack Draper and his potential, but he is coming in off an injury and his lack of experience on the red dirt is a problem. Last year we saw Draper play a couple of quality matches at the Madrid Masters, but that is a tournament played in conditions that tend to be some of the faster clay courts in the lead up to the French Open and would have suited the big hitting game that Jack Draper wants to play.

Unfortunately that is not likely to be the case in Monte Carlo and Sebastian Baez did reach the Quarter Final in Estoril last week.

He was well beaten by Casper Ruud as the defending Champion in Estoril, but Sebastian Baez has had plenty of wins on the red dirt and I think he is one of those players that will thrive playing on this surface over the next couple of months.

Sebastian Baez has found a certain level too much to handle on this surface, but he is 22-5 in clay court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 over the last year. The know how on the clay courts have allowed Baez to serve well and really build the pressure on the return and I think he can put that together in winning his opening match at this Masters tournament.

MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 10th)

Another strong day was completed on Saturday thanks to the successes of big serving Americans in the ATP Houston tournament.

This should mean a solid week has been secured, but the Tour chugs along with matches in the Monte Carlo First Round beginning on Sunday as well as the Finals at the four tournaments that have been played this week.

After looking through the four Finals to be played in Marrakech, Houston, Bogota and Charleston, I can't really find an angle that I am comfortable with and not at the prices that have been placed by the layers.

With that in mind, I am going to accept the winning week and the results that can be seen below after the Semi Final matches were completed on Saturday. It is a positive start to the clay court season ahead of the first Masters to be played on the surface.

Like last week, many players are going to be making their first clay court appearance of the season in Monte Carlo and it can lead to upset results, especially early in the tournament. There are First Round matches scheduled to be played on Sunday, but you can see the only selection I am making from the day in the MY PICKS section below.

This will be the start of the Monte Carlo tournament so the result of the match will be added to the totals of that event over the coming week.

MY PICKS: Filip Krajinovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-9, + 4.36 Units (42 Units Staked, + 10.38% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Joe Smith Jr vs Maxim Vlasov (April 10th)

I could have headlined this post with the other big main event taking place in the United States on Saturday evening as Jaron Ennis continues to showcase his talent and his potential of being the best at the 147 pound limit in the years ahead.

He is taking a step up fight as is Conor Benn in the same weight class earlier in the day, although Ennis is much further along in his development and looks every bit the talent so man believe him to be.

However, there is a World Title on the line in the Light Heavyweight Division where Joe Smith Jr takes on Maxim Vlasov in a bout that was originally scheduled a couple of months ago. The winner of this one will not only become a World Champion, but one that is likely to be involved in big Unification fights in the months ahead and it is a legit bout between arguably two of the top four or five fighters in the Light Heavyweight Division.

Last weekend we saw the end of the Carl Frampton professional career, but the Northern Irish two weight World Champion has nothing to regret.

He had some big nights both at home and in the United States and Frampton has come out as one of the truly deserving men in Boxing who will now get to go home and enjoy his life with his family. He came up short against Jemel Herring and it is the right decision to call time on his career with Frampton looking much declined from his best days, but this was a solid career and one that many others would be very happy to have if they have the opportunity.

Herring will go on and become involved in Unification fights going forward, while I imagine there will be no shortage of media offers for Carl Frampton once he has just had some time to rest and recover after the defeat in Dubai.

The next seven weeks look extremely busy for Boxing fans with some solid looking cards coming up through April and May.  World Champions will be made and Unifications will take place and there should be plenty of action for us to enjoy.

That is the case on Saturday with some big cards taking place across a number of venues, while next week Liam Williams becomes the latest British fighter travelling Stateside to become a World Champion. The build has begun for Canelo Alvarez' return against Billy Joe Saunders and there is also a PPV card taking place in early May headed up by Joseph Parker and Dereck Chisora, two fighters just outside the elite in the Heavyweight Division but who are hoping new trainers can help them push into World Title contention.

Before all that, let's get into the thoughts for the cards taking place on Saturday in the United Kingdom and United States.

Alexander Espinoza vs Ukashir Farooq

An undercard bout in London will give British fighter Ukashir Farooq a chance to pick up a WBC International Silver Title and he is considered a strong favourite to see off Alexander Espinoza who picked up that Belt in his last bout.

However this is only the second time Espinoza has fought outside of Nicaragua and I do think Farooq is going to have far too much skill for his opponent.

Alexander Espinoza has won a couple of fights since an early Knock Out loss, but this is a Boxer who has been down early in previous bouts too. At Bantamweight it is going to be the speed and skill of Farooq that is likely going to make the difference and the British fighter has shown early power while producing six stoppages in his fourteen wins.

That is not an overwhelming number but five of those six stoppages have been earned before the bell for the Sixth Round has been rung and I do think Ukashir Farooq will be looking to impress early against an opponent that has not really performed at a very high level.

It feels like a fight in which Farooq can impress in only his second outing under the Matchroom banner and I think he has the capability of getting through this one early.

Savannah Marshall vs Maria Lindberg

If things go to plan, Eddie Hearn is surely going to want to build towards a big fight between Savannah Marshall and Clarissa Shields and it is one that both Boxers are hoping to secure over the next twelve months.

Women's Boxing needs those kind of fights to at least build the profile of the sport, but this should be a relatively easy night's work for Marshall as she faces a late stand in.

A positive Covid-19 test has removed the original opponent and 44 year old Maria Lindberg has stepped in. Some in the Marshall camp will talk about facing a stronger opponent than the original one selected, and you can make that argument as Lindberg is a former World Title challenger, although always coming up short.

The last of those bids came in 2019, but it is also telling that Maria Lindberg has not fought since December 2019. It was a winning effort the last time Lindberg entered the ring, but this is a very difficult challenge against a hard hitting Savannah Marshall and one who won't have the same ring rust as the veteran.

It is the lack of depth in the Divisions in Women's Boxing that allowed Lindberg to fight for World Titles as often as she did considering the 19-6-2 record, although she has to be respected as someone who has never been stopped before. However, I am pretty convinced that Lindberg has not faced anyone who can hit as hard as Marshall has proved she can and I really believe the British fighter would benefit massively if we did have three minute Rounds.

Despite having a minute fewer in each Round compared with the men, Savannah Marshall has still managed to end seven of her nine fights inside the distance. She was able to break down and stop Hannah Rankin in October, a boxer who had never been stopped before and gone the distance with Clarissa Shields, while Marshall has been able to finish off other durable opponents even in the shorter Rounds.

I think that is going to be the case here as she makes another statement that she is ready to take on the biggest challengers she can find and I think Savannah Marshall will quickly have Maria Lindberg longing for a way out. As durable as the Swede has been, she is now 44 years old and facing the hardest hitter she will have ever been in the ring with and Savannah Marshall clearly doesn't believe in working Overtime for her victories.

Shannon Courtenay vs Ebanie Bridges

It is quite amazing that this is a bout that has a World Title on the line when you think the two fighters have had twelve fights COMBINED.

This underlines the lack of depth in Women's Boxing and especially with the number of weight classes making it easy for some of the top names to move up and down the Divisions and pick up what I think have to be considered as undeserved World Titles.

At this stage of their careers neither Shannon Courtenay nor Ebanie Bridges should be in a position call themselves World Champion, but the Boxers have a big opportunity in front of them and the build up to this bout has arguably been the best on this card in London.

Credit has to be given to Ebanie Bridges for that and there is no doubt she has a pretty strong fanbase for a fighter with a 5-0 record and who is boxing outside of Australia for the second time. The 34 year old has become a popular fighter on social media and there is little doubt that Bridges has been aided by her looks and her willingness to engage with fans.

I like her style, but I also have to be honest and say I simply don't think she has been tested to the kind of standard that Shannon Courtenay could set for her.

I would like to see Bridges bring something to the ring that will surprise me, but I think her come forward, aggressive approach will play into the hands of a solid counter puncher like Courtenay who has had tougher fights than the Australian. Shannon Courtenay is younger and she looks to be more experienced at this level and I think she is going wear down Ebanie Bridges who may be tough early, but likely to run out of gas before the halfway mark of the scheduled Ten Rounds.

Again I would love to be wrong, but I think Shannon Courtenay may just have her way with Ebanie Bridges the longer this fight goes on and the style could see the Australian walk into a barrage that is too much to take. Hopefully it won't be the end of the Blonde Bomber, but I think Shannon Courtenay is the bigger and stronger fighter and can earn a stoppage in this one as she picks up a World Title less than a year after losing to Rachel Ball at Fight Camp.

Conor Benn vs Samuel Vargas

The talk has been about getting in the ring with veteran 147 pound British fighters Amir Khan and Kell Brook, but Conor Benn can only strengthen his claims if he can beat a veteran like Samuel Vargas who has danced with some of the biggest names in and around this Division.

The match up looks to have come at the right time for Nigel's son who is building his own name with each passing victory. I was a little concerned about Conor Benn being someone who is overhyped and living off his father's name, but he has really shone in interviews over the last year and this is a fighter that is easy to get behind.

A shut out win over Sebastian Formella will have given Benn a lot of confidence, although this is a loaded Division with some hugely impressive fighters involved in it. Conor Benn will be looking to make another statement when taking on Samuel Vargas, a fighter who was dropped a couple of times and eventually beaten on the cards by Amir Khan in a previous visit to the United Kingdom.

That fight took place a little under three years ago though and Samuel Vargas looks like a rugged veteran who has plenty of miles on the clock. He was beaten in the Seventh Round by Vergil Ortiz Jr the last time we saw him in July 2020, but Vargas was stopped standing on that day.

My worry for the Colombian is that he was shipping plenty of unnecessary punishment in the loss to the big hitting Ortiz Jr and I do think that adds to the miles in the clock for someone who has mixed it with some of the best names in the Division. Samuel Vargas was Knocked Down in the Second and Third Round against Amir Khan, while Errol Spence Jr and Danny Garcia are others who have stopped him previously.

It is difficult to point to anything Conor Benn has achieved to think he has reached the levels of Ortiz Jr, Spence Jr or Garcia, but I think he may also be catching Samuel Vargas at the right time.

I can't ignore the fact that Conor Benn has won eleven fights out of seventeen by stoppage, but all of those have come inside the first Four Rounds. He can't expect to take out Vargas that early, but I do think there was enough to like from Benn in his last win that he can begin to take control of this fight at the halfway mark and the hard shots shouldn't find a target that is hard to miss.

The referee is likely going to be forced to intervene in the second half of the fight if Conor Benn turns the screw as he tried against Sebastian Formella. Unlike that World Title challenger, Samuel Vargas should find it tougher and tougher to avoid the big shots and he may not give the ref any choice but to jump in and stop this fight in favour of the British fighter.

Efe Ajagba vs Brian Howard

It has been seven months since we last saw Efe Ajagba in action and some of the progress made by this Heavyweight contender has been slowed over the last twelve months.

Early in his career Efe Ajagba wasn't just winning fights, but blowing past opponents. That has changed as he has stepped up his level and it has seen three of his last four fights last at least until the Ninth Round and two of those have needed the judges to produce a winner. He had only once been as far as the Fifth Round before those recent battles, but the Nigerian based in Texas looks to be stepping back a level in this fight.

Efe Ajagba takes on a 40 year old Brian Howard who has lost four times in his career and three of those by stoppage. The last time we saw Howard he was being blasted away by Frank Sanchez in the Fourth Round having also been dropped in the Third Round and I do think this veteran is a good opportunity for Ajagba to put a strong win on the board.

Brian Howard has failed to hear the bell for the Fifth Round in two of his three stoppage defeats and I don't think he will offer a lot of resistance to Ajagba in this one.

Joe Smith Jr vs Maxim Vlasov

This is a bout that was originally intended for February, but a Covid-19 issue for Maxim Vlasov has meant a shorter than expected delay to this Light Heavyweight contest.

The WBO Title is on the line for the Russian and Joe Smith Jr and there are going to be some big time opportunities for the winner of this contest over the next several months.

I have much to like about both of these fighters- Joe Smith Jr is always good to watch and he has some solid wins on his resume, although the last two losses have come against some of the better names in and around this Division.

Maxim Vlasov is another who has some strong wins on his resume and the Russian is someone who has operated in the Light Heavyweight and Cruiserweight Divisions. Like his opponent, Maxim Vlasov has only really been beaten by some of the better names at 175 and 205 pounds and he is confident in his ability.

Both fighters have shown they can be very tough and also are unlikely to take a backward step and it all points to one of the better contests we have seen in 2021.

The Covid-19 test that scuppered the first fight is a concern- there hasn't been a lot of time for Maxim Vlasov to overcome the affects of the disease and it may contribute to the price on Joe Smith Jr to win this fight and the WBO Title that comes with it.

I honestly would not be surprised if both are able to have their moments across this Twelve Round bout, but I can see Joe Smith Jr beginning to take control in the second half of the contest. Maxim Vlasov has never been stopped as a professsional, and the 34 year old Russian is unlikely to take a backward step in this one, but in a firefight I have to like Joe Smith Jr.

I am very much looking forward to this, but I think Joe Smith Jr will begin to wear down Maxim Vlasov and he can find some big shots to put this fight away in the Championship Rounds as he wins a World Title for the first time in his career.

Eimantas Stanionis vs Thomas Dulorme

There is a solid card coming out of Connecticut on Saturday evening as a couple of potential superstars take the next step in their development as they move towards the elite in a loaded Welterweight Division.

We also have a multiple time defending World Champion on this card and there is going to be plenty of intrigue about the top three bouts.

First up is a step up for Lithuanian Eimantis Stanionis who has won all twelve fights as a professional after putting together a solid amateur career. He has won nine of those fights inside the distance, but Stanionis is being pushed forward when taking on a veteran like Thomas Dulorme who has been in the ring with some of the big names in and around this Division.

Generally he has come up short when facing those names, but defeats to Terence Crawford and Yordenis Ugas, two of the Belt holders at 147 pounds, means Dulorme has plenty more experience and ring craft to fall back upon in this bout. He is going to be looking to all that to see what Stanionis is about, while also trying to take him into the Championship Rounds and test the resolve of the young prospect.

Thomas Dulorme was last seen losing a Unanimous Decision to Jamal James, another up and comer, and there has to be some concerns about his potential resistance considering he has been down a few times in his career. Now he is taking on a young fighter who will push forward and look to unload some huge shots of his own and I do think Eimantas Stanionis can get people taking notice by becoming the third fighter to stop Dulorme.

It won't be easy and this should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts, but I can see the younger and fresher fighter having enough strength to eventually begin to crack the veteran.

This will be as much of a learning fight as it will be a potential statement maker for Eimantis Stanionis, and I do think he will get all and more out of it with a stoppage in the second half.

Jerwin Ancajas vs Jonathan Javier Rodriguez

When you think of the Super Flyweight Division the names that immediately come to mind are Juan Francisco Estrada, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai and Chocalitito Roman Gonzalez and that has left IBF World Champion Jerwin Ancajas on the outside.

While those three names have been involved in back and forth high level contests against each other, Jerwin Ancajas has continued to defend his World Title and will be making his ninth defence on Saturday evening. He has largely been comfortable in his defences, although the last time he took on an unknown Mexican, Ancajas was a little fortunate to get away with a Split Draw and hold onto his belt.

Wins over Israel Gonzalez and Miguel Gonzalez are solid ones though as he gets set to defend the World Title against Jonathan Javier Rodriguez who is fighting outside of Mexico for the first time. There isn't really much that can be said about Rodriguez, but like most Mexican fighters you have to expect he will not be hard to find in the ring and anyone who has sixteen wins inside the distance out of twenty-two previous wins has to be respected.

Of course you can't ignore the level of opponents he has faced, but Rodriguez will have seen others from his home nation leave those comforts and change their lives with big performances on foreign soil. A win for Jonathan Javier Rodriguez could pave the way for some huge fights at the Super Flyweight mark and I don't think he will be looking to take a backwards step with such an opportunity in front of him.

However, Jerwin Ancajas has the experience edge and he hits plenty hard enough himself with some good looking wins inside the distance on his resume.

I can see the Filipino fighter beginning to get on top of the exchanges by the midway point of this fight and Jerwin Ancajas can then start taking complete control of this latest World Title defence. A stoppage around the Eighth or Ninth is what I am expecting for Jerwin Ancajas and perhaps the chance to call out others in his Division for Unification fights in the aftermath.

Jaron Ennis vs Sergey Lipinets

There has been a lot of talk around this young man from Philadelphia who looks a star in the making and one who could become a multiple weight World Champion before his career is over.

Jaron Ennis is 23 years old and looks to be have been developed at just the right speed, while Boots continues to knock down and beat whoever is put in front of him. He was supposed to have something of a showcase fight in December 2020, but the bout with Chris van Heerden was ended prematurely thanks to a clash of heads in the First Round.

Even in that limited time in the ring you could see the power and technique of Ennis shining through and ultimately he looked like he was going to steamroll through an opponent who had been stopped by Errol Spence Jr in the Eighth Round. The early onslaught suggested Ennis wanted to get things done quicker than the World Champion and arguably top fighter in the 147 pound Division, but any statement making win had to wait a few months.

He definitely gets the chance to impress when headlining this event and taking on Sergey Lipinets who has only been beaten once before as a professional and that at the hands of Mikey Garcia on a Decision. That was in a World Title fight at Light Welterweight, but Lipinets has moved up and won three fights in a row including stopping former World Champion Lamont Peterson and ending that career.

A draw with Custio Clayton was the last time we saw Lipinets, but this is a considerable step up in my opinion and the perfect chance for Jaron Ennis to have the rest of the Division have to take notice and mention his name.

Boxers have simply not been able to stand up to the skill and the power that Jaron Ennis has been able to bring to the ring and I think he will be able to break down Sergey Lipinets pretty quickly in this one too. The latter did manage to survive the full Twelve Rounds against Mikey Garcia, but this is a Division higher than that fight and Ennis is a big man for the 147 Division and who is likely going to move up the weights in the years ahead.

Jaron Ennis doesn't carry opponents and I think he will likely get into his rhythm pretty quickly.

Sergey Lipinets has shown he has courage and might stand up to the early onslaughts, but this is a big chance for Ennis to show what kind of level he is at by impressively moving through an opponent who has only lost once and never been stopped. I can see Ennis beginning to take control pretty quickly and I think the heavy shots that end this fight may come around the midway point of this bout.

I can then see Jaron Ennis going on and looking to challenge a fringe World Title contender before looking to force himself into a World Title fight, although the belts could soon be tied up between Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford if the rumoured fights that both of those want are put together.

MY PICKS: Ukashir Farooq to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Savannah Marshall to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Shannon Courtenay to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Conor Benn to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Efe Ajagba to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Joe Smith Jr to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Eimantis Stanionis to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Jerwin Ancajas to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Jaron Ennis to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 9-18, - 5.18 Units (52 Units Staked, - 9.96% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 9-12)

The GameWeeks are running out in the Fantasy Premier League game, but the frustration for my choices looks like being a season-long event and I am already looking forward to taking part in Euro 2020 Fantasy games and then preparing for the 2021/22 season.

Hopefully that will be a time when we are allowed back inside the Stadiums- I have missed Old Trafford massively- and the season should also be one that is much more familiar in the way it is broken down compared with this congested campaign.

It is obviously going to be a one season return to normality as the following season will bring us the Winter World Cup for the first time which is due to start in November in Qatar and that will mean another 'different looking' season with the way things are managed by the Associations around Europe and the rest of the world.

I will get into my GW31 team below, but first a few thoughts as to how I think the Premier League games will go this weekend.

Fulham v Wolves Pick: The Premier League returns on Friday night and this looks to be one of a really important game for Fulham as they look to put pressure on those teams above them in the table.

After blowing the 0-1 lead at Aston Villa with a late capitulation, Fulham are now 3 points from safety and they have played a game more than the majority of their rivals around them. A win on Friday would actually take them out of the bottom three for a day or two at least, but Fulham have been struggling for form and have been beaten in their last 3 at Craven Cottage.

However, Fulham have to be targeting this as a fixture they can win when facing a Wolves team who are in mid-table and struggling for consistency. Wolves have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games, but they have been tougher to beat on their travels and I think that gives them every chance of earning a positive result.

The underlying stats have certainly suggested Wolves have been a touch unfortunate not to have picked up more points of late and certainly fail to secure a couple of wins over the last month. They created a huge amount of chances against Aston Villa and West Ham United, while also had the better of play against Liverpool, but Wolves earned just a single point from those fixtures.

A lack of goals has been a concern without Raul Jimenez, but they at least showed a little more composure in the final third in the loss to West Ham United on Easter Monday. That will offer Wolves encouragement as they head to West London and I am surprised they are the underdog by such a margin considering Fulham's form and the likely absence of Ademola Lookman.

A draw can't be ruled out, but Fulham may have to take more risks than Wolves and that could leave them open for the pace that the visitors have. Wolves have drawn at Newcastle United and Aston Villa recently and they are certainly capable of at least earning that kind of result here, although the chances being created of late could see Wolves finally break through and earn a vital win to virtually secure Premier League Football for another season.

Manchester City v Leeds United Pick: You can't underestimate the fact that Manchester City will make changes to their first eleven and will clearly be focused on the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg to come during the week, but this is a deep squad. Any changes that will be made will still produce a strong starting eleven as Manchester City showed in their dominating 0-2 win at Leicester City last weekend.

They will also benefit from the fact that Leeds United will look to play an open game and I think Manchester City will be able to expose any holes that are left behind.

In saying that I expect Leeds United to play their part here with an attacking approach likely to cause Manchester City some problems as Manchester United, Southampton and Borussia Dortmund have found in recent visits to the Etihad Stadium. The style implement by Marcelo Bielsa means Leeds United will press from the front and any lack of focus from the hosts will be punished.

However, some have suggested there is a naivety to the Leeds United approach which has left them vulnerable to the counter attack. They have certainly been exposed by some of the top teams in the Premier League and Leeds United have conceded at least three goals at Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Arsenal already this season.

Manchester City might not be dealing with the clean sheets they had been producing, but this is a team that creates chances and score goals. Even if some key players are rested, the likes of Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero will come in and they are good enough to break down this Leeds United team in what could be a really good watch on Saturday lunchtime for the neutrals.

Of the 8 away League defeats suffered by Leeds United, 6 have come by two or more goal margins and I think that will be the case on Saturday too. They may find a way to goal, but Manchester City should be able to create enough chances to overcome a team managed by someone that Pep Guardiola greatly admires.

There may be quite a few goals on show in this fixture, but Manchester City should have the better of things in a high-scoring game to maintain momentum ahead of the Second Leg against Borussia Dortmund coming up.

Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: If results had gone against Liverpool last weekend you could easily have made a case for the Champions League having a much bigger priority for the club over the Premier League. Even now the fans may feel the Champions League is the best route back into the same competition next season, but Liverpool have closed to within 3 points of the top four in the Premier League and so a strong team should be selected for this League game.

Losing 3-1 in Madrid may also have made it more important for Liverpool to keep the pressure on those teams above them by winning before the likes of West Ham United, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur play.

It will also be a morale boosting win for Liverpool having lost 6 Premier League games in a row at Anfield, especially as they will be hosting Real Madrid here on Wednesday. Another home defeat may just have the players feeling they can't overturn the deficit, but a win on Saturday will be a boost at just the right time and they may just be facing Aston Villa at a good time.

The visitors have looked desperate at the back so I do think this Liverpool team will create chances against them, while the return of Diogo Jota has given Liverpool another strong attacking option. The Portuguese star has played well since returning and I do think Liverpool will create chances against this Aston Villa defence which has a better defensive record than the underlying statistics suggests they should have.

Aston Villa can cause problems for the Liverpool defence with the attacking pace they have, but Jack Grealish's absence would be a big blow. Even without him there will be opportunities for Aston Villa, but perhaps not as frequent as they would like and Liverpool should create chances to win this fixture.

I expect Liverpool will need to score at least two goals to win this game and earn the confidence boosting victory that will at least give them some belief before facing Real Madrid again during the week. I think the return of Jota gives them another threat in the final third and I think Aston Villa will offer up enough for Liverpool to do that in this League game.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea Pick: The defeat to West Brom last weekend may have been one that can inspire Chelsea to a focused and strong end to the 2020/21 season.

They are still on course for a top four finish with their own destiny in their control, while Chelsea have a FA Cup Semi Final to look forward to next weekend. The 2-0 win over Porto during the week puts Chelsea in a commanding position when it comes to the Champions League Quarter Final tie too, although Thomas Tuchel can't afford another poor result in the Premier League with rivals West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool pushing for a top four finish too.

Chelsea have not been as tight defensively as their overall clean sheets have suggested over the last two months, but this is a team creating chances. They will be encouraged by the defensive vulnerability that Crystal Palace keep displaying and a solid record at Selhurst Park will also give the Chelsea players confidence of getting back to winning ways in the Premier League.

One concern for Chelsea is the lack of goals being scored away from home which is putting pressure on them to keep picking up the clean sheets. In only 1 of the last 10 away Premier League games played have Chelsea scored more than one goal, but they do have 3 clean sheets in their 5 away League games played under Thomas Tuchel.

They did score twice away from Stamford Bridge during the week and Chelsea have been creating some solid chances away from home. However I think the main focus after last Saturday will be restricting Crystal Palace and there is every chance they can do that when you think The Eagles had failed to score in 3 home League games before the narrow win over West Brom.

There were plenty of goals shared out when Crystal Palace hosted Chelsea last season, but this one looks to be a tighter affair thanks to the tactics likely employed by Thomas Tuchel. Roy Hodgson won't want to give too much away either and Chelsea are likely to win a competitive fixture which does not feature more than three goals in total.

Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: This is a huge game at the bottom of the Premier League and the winner will feel they are taking a big step towards safety even with seven games left to play this season.

Both Burnley and Newcastle United took the lead in their respective fixtures last weekend and ended up scoring twice, but neither picked up a win to remain in relegation trouble. Burnley blew a 0-2 lead at Southampton in a 3-2 defeat, but Newcastle United may feel they have a bit of momentum having scored a late equaliser to earn a point against Tottenham Hotspur at St James' Park.

Steve Bruce could be boosted by a returning Callum Wilson this weekend and Allan Saint-Maximin may be able to offer more minute son the pitch which should make Newcastle United more dangerous going forward. They will certainly feel this Burnley defence has been far from secure considering the kind of chances they have allowed in recent games and Newcastle United were very good last weekend.

That game was at home though and Newcastle United have looked more vulnerable away from home which makes this a more difficult game to read. Burnley have been churning out some positive results and they haven't been bad going forward, but the underlying numbers suggest they have been more fortunate than they have perhaps deserved.

They have looked like a team who can score goals, but who will offer chances for opponents too, and I think this is likely to be a high-scoring game as long as there is a first half game to just loosen defences. Both managers would likely take a point before kick off, but an early goal can change the mindset completely and neither Burnley nor Newcastle United look capable of keeping clean sheets at the moment.

A 1-1 scoreline is a real runner, but I think there may be at least one more goal shared out between them this weekend.

West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: This is a really important fixture in the Premier League this weekend and the outcome is going to have serious implications as to how the Champions League places are likely to be handed out at the end of the season.

Both Leicester City and West Ham United will be considered surprising top four teams going into the final eight League games, but neither is anywhere near guaranteed of playing Champions League Football next season. Now they are here, both Brendan Rodgers and David Moyes will be looking for a strong end to the season to offer their respective clubs a memorable campaign and the fans something to look forward to if they are able to return to the stands in August.

The importance of the game will not be lost on either team.

A win for Leicester City may see the team begin to feel they can pull away from the teams battling for the final Champions League berth, but a win for West Ham United would pull The Foxes back and have other rivals believing there are two spots up for grabs down the stretch.

It is hard to separate them considering how well West Ham United have been playing at home, but also how difficult Leicester City have been to beat on their travels. The goals being scored by The Hammers will be encouraging, but Leicester City will look at the defensive numbers and the return of James Maddison could see them pick the home defence.

Games between Leicester City and West Ham United have tended to be high-scoring and the last four have all featured at least three goals shared out. 4 of the last 5 in East London hosted by West Ham United have also featured at least three goals shared out and I think both teams are likely to have success when going forward in this one.

A 1-1 scoreline might not be one that either team would be that disappointed with, but I think both managers will understand that there is an opportunity to increase their own chances of Champions League Football and dent a rival at the same time. I don't think either will discourage their team from getting forward and I feel this is a fixture that could easily produce a vital 2-1 result either way.

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: Results last weekend did not just open the door for Tottenham Hotspur to get closer to the top four, but also gave Manchester United an opportunity to take command of one of the Champions League places on offer from the Premier League standings.

Both of these teams fell 1-0 behind to relegation threatened opponents, but only Manchester United were able to secure the three points as they beat Brighton at Old Trafford. Tottenham Hotspur conceded very late in their 2-2 draw at Newcastle United, but Jose Mourinho has had a week to prepare his team and should have a couple of key defenders back that can only help Spurs.

They are also facing a Manchester United team that had a tough away game in Spain on Thursday evening and who have looked a touch fatigued in recent weeks.

You could label both of these teams as being inconsistent in terms of performances, although it is Manchester United who have continued to find a way to churn out more positive results. They have also been difficult to play away from Old Trafford as Manchester United have been able to employ counter attacking tactics to good effect in those matches and that has seen them lose a single domestic away game in fifteen months.

A late goal secured a 1-1 draw here when the season resumed after the three month suspension of play last June and I think Manchester United will make life tough for Tottenham Hotspur. The extra time off is a benefit for the home team who have an in-form Harry Kane leading the line and with some pace and quality around him that makes Tottenham Hotspur dangerous, although Jose Mourinho remains a cautious manager.

That caution is likely going to see Mourinho look to avoid leaving counter attacking space and it likely means we see a tight game between these top four chasing clubs. The game played at Old Trafford this season did finish 1-6, but a very early Penalty for Manchester United and a relatively early Anthony Martial sending off saw that fixture move in a direction that was hard to envision.

I expect this one to be much tighter and the last 3 Premier League fixtures hosted by Spurs against Manchester United have ended with less than three goals shared out. Neither manager is likely want to give too much away in this one either and I think it is another tight fixture between Big Six clubs that looks to be in the offing.

Sheffield United v Arsenal Pick: A seething Mikel Arteta will likely be fully focused on preparing his Arsenal team for the Europa League Quarter Final Second Leg against Slavia Prague which is to be played in the Czech Republic next Thursday. After missing a host of chances, Arsenal finally broke the deadlock in the First Leg with just five minutes remaining, but a late goal was conceded which means a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium was the outcome.

You could see how irritated Arteta was at full time and I expect changes to be made to the Arsenal starting eleven with the players involved next Thursday given a bit of a rest.

That raises doubts in this fixture and makes me feel Arsenal are a very short price and especially with the uncertainty about their team selection in mind. However, Sheffield United have been very poor all season and they can't be trusted to take advantage considering the amount of chances they have been allowing in recent games and with a struggle to score enough goals evident ever since The Blades returned to the top flight in August 2019.

I'll be watching The Masters when this game kicks off on Sunday evening and I really don't have any serious convictions about this fixture. A narrow away win is perhaps the most likely outcome, but this is one of those Premier League games that has very little riding on the result and with Arsenal most likely focusing their real attention elsewhere.

West Brom v Southampton Pick: Both of these teams conceded two goals in their last Premier League games played last weekend, but West Brom and Southampton showed real attacking intent in beating Chelsea and Burnley respectively. The two teams both had to come from behind to earn those wins, which will add to the confidence, but it does feel the Southampton performance is arguably more sustainable.

All credit has to be given to West Brom for the win at Stamford Bridge, but it was a 'perfect storm' of events that landed in their favour. They were 1-0 down before Thiago Silva was sent off and West Brom showed the kind of clinical finishing which has not been evident from them through the majority of the season.

Of course this result could spark them, but West Brom continued to look vulnerable defensively despite playing against an opponent with ten men. That has been a large part of the issue for West Brom as they have struggled to get closer to those teams outside of the relegation zone and they are now going up against a Southampton team who have scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in all competitions.

Southampton also showed how much they still believe in their manager by coming from 0-2 down to beat Burnley 3-2 at St Mary's last weekend.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's team had been hurt by injuries and that contributed to their poor Premier League run, but Southampton look much healthier now. They have attacking options and will head to The Hawthorns with confidence and have won their last 3 fixtures played on this ground.

The Saints have not looked as strong defensively as they did earlier this season, but they are creating plenty of chances and I think they have a team that can secure another big result on Monday. The first goal will be important, but Southampton look the more likely to earn that on recent form and I think they can win here.

It will be a result that gives them real momentum to take into the FA Cup Semi Final.

West Brom have not scored in their last 2 Premier League games at The Hawthorns and I feel Southampton will have too much for them.

Brighton v Everton Pick: The home team are the favourite in this fixture, but Brighton are hard to trust with very few wins secured at the Amex Stadium this season. Their underlying statistics have been very impressive, but Brighton are still struggling for consistency in the final third and that makes it hard to really believe in them with any confidence.

I also think Everton are being a touch under-rated with their results influencing the prices on this fixture.

In reality they should have beaten Burnley and Crystal Palace in recent Premier League games and if they had, Everton would have likely been the narrow favourite to win here. Poor finishing has let them down, but the team has looked healthier which makes them stronger.

Add in the fact that Brighton have continued to struggle in the final third and you can make a case for Everton winning here, but Graham Potter's team are hard to read from game to game. The Seagulls could certainly play their part here with the attacking intent they continue to approach games with, but Everton will also feel they can create chances and I think this could be a high-scoring game like the one played between the teams at Goodison Park earlier this season.

Five goals were shared out when these teams met at the Amex Stadium last season too and this is another Premier League game that could be ignited with a first half goal.

MY PICKS: Wolves + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals

Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals

Burnley-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals

West Ham United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Brighton-Everton Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 31

In a usual Fantasy Premier League season we would be preparing for one or maybe two Double GameWeeks at this point of the campaign, but the big Doubles look to have passed us by.

GameWeek 32 will give one team a double, Tottenham Hotspur, while two other fixtures have yet to secure dates. Those would have landed in GameWeek 37, but there is still ongoing talks of delaying a round of Premier League fixtures which would allow all teams to host at least one game where fans are allowed back inside the Stadiums.

Those decisions are yet to be made and it does make it more difficult to manage when the best time to play the Wild Card is set to be. Any changes to the schedule will mean the two FA Cup Finalists have an extra Double GameWeek which was not envisioned before these talks commenced and I want to hold onto my Wild Card through the FA Cup Semi Finals which are played next week.

While I do think there are some big changes I can make to my squad to get a lot closer to the top 100K, I think those aren't so desperate at this moment with a team that can cover the next two weeks through to GW33 when hopefully the remainder of the season will be set out much more clearly.

Importantly it is also the weekend when the League Cup Final is set to be played and that will mean four teams are not in action at all (of which I have a huge number of players).

That Wild Card decision makes it 'easier' to manage the Free Transfers through the next two GameWeeks, although I have seemingly failed to get on the right side of my choices for much of the season. Not for the first time I have been hurt by leaving one of my top scorers as my third sub, a decision which was compounded last week by my first sub leaving play injured before the 60th minute mark.

Too many single pointers have hurt my Overall Rank throughout the season, one which has produced too many strange results and inconsistencies and I am looking forward to a more settled campaign next time around.

Last week I decided to bring in Edouard Mendy and that turned out to be one of the poorest decisions of the season on the outcome of the transfer, although it was the right play on paper. You can't get too down on yourself when you think that is the case and I don't regret it with the 2-5 defeat suffered by Chelsea against West Brom being yet another strange result we have seen in this congested season.

With a Wild Card coming up soon, any transfers I make now can be seen as 'one week punts', although I am looking at players who will likely take part in both of the next two GameWeeks to get the maximum from them.

Last week I spoke about my disappointment I could not bring in Marcos Alonso and the Spanish left back returned an assist as he continues to move into strong attacking positions. The feeling is that he will be used in both Premier League games to be played by Chelsea in GameWeek 31 and 32 with Ben Chilwell used for the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Porto and the FA Cup Semi Final against Manchester City next weekend.

Thomas Tuchel has tended to use Alonso against those teams that are likely going to sit back and I think that is the case with Crystal Palace this weekend and, to a lesser extent, Brighton who visit Stamford Bridge next.

Another interesting player that is showing improvement is Trent Alexander-Arnold who has something to prove after being dropped from the last England squad, but Liverpool have two tougher games than Chelsea on paper. Add in their situation in the Champions League and I think Alonso makes more more sense at this point than Alexander-Arnold, although the latter may be more of a play when it comes to working out the Wild Card team later this month.

One player who is getting his last chance for my squad this week is Raheem Sterling who has clearly been out of favour at Manchester City since the derby defeat to Manchester United last month. Since that fixture, Sterling has played just 27 minutes in three Premier League games, while he was also benched in the Champions League Quarter Final First Leg against Borussia Dortmund during the week.

Raheem Sterling did start in the FA Cup win at Everton, but both Manchester City goals came after he was substituted and I do think Pep Guardiola has more trust in other options.

However, the manager has spoken about keeping his squad as fresh as possible and the home game against Leeds United looks a very good chance to bring Sterling back in for a start and give Riyad Mahrez a rest following back to back starts this past week.

I think I am so convinced that I am going to give Sterling the Captain armband as a differential maker this week with many jumping off the ownership of the England international. He is the most likely player that I am going to move next week with the target being another Tottenham Hotspur player to treble up on their Double GameWeek, but I am hoping there is a big performance in Sterling against an open Leeds United team at the Etihad Stadium.

It is risky backing any player that is managed by Pep Guardiola outside of Kevin De Bruyne for the Captaincy choice, but it came down to a pretty straight choice for me between Sterling and Diogo Jota. The latter is perhaps more likely to be rested considering Liverpool's situation in the Champions League and with Roberto Firmino capable of coming in, while I will likely hand the Vice Captaincy to a more secure choice as a starter.

Like last week, I was also tempted by Marcos Alonso as Captain if bringing him in against a goal-shy Crystal Palace, but picking a player from the team with the best underlying stats as an attacking force in the last six weeks is hard to ignore.

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 9-11)

We are down to the final eight teams in both the Champions League and Europa League for the 2018/19 season and those Quarter Final ties are going to be played over the next ten days.

With UEFA going back to the formula they used a few years ago in drawing the Quarter Final ties and Semi Final ties at the same time, managers and fans can begin to plot the paths and decide which teams they believe will go on and compete in the Finals.

I wish I could say I was looking forward to doing the same, but the way things have panned out in the Champions League I really am beginning to fear the 'worse case scenario Final' is ready to come round. That is obviously Manchester City v Liverpool as the belief that two of Manchester United's biggest rivals are about to split the top trophies comes sharply into view.

Juventus, Barcelona and the other two English representatives in the Champions League Quarter Final may have something to say about that though.

Three of the four ties really do come with very strong storylines in the Champions League in this Round, but I have to suggest Liverpool are huge favourites to see off a Porto team they beat 5-0 in the Last 16 last season.

Ajax and Manchester United produced stunning away performances in the Last 16 Second Legs played last month, but both are considerable underdogs when they face Juventus and Barcelona respectively. Both also play at home this week and you have to think they can't afford to have the losses suffered in those Stadiums in the First Leg of the Last 16 ties if they are going to have a chance to progress to an unexpected Semi Final later this month.

Most will have Manchester City down as a strong favourite to beat Tottenham Hotspur too, but I think there is some intrigue attached to that tie. The current English Champions are playing a lot of football at the moment and you would think that is going to catch up with them, while Spurs are a team that can compete with the very best on their day.

Again the First Leg is of paramount importance to the underdog and if Tottenham Hotspur can take a lead to the Eithad Stadium next Wednesday then I do think they would have every chance of the upset in the tie.


In the Europa League it does look like Chelsea have been given a great chance to reach the Final and have two shots to make the Champions League having moved back into the top four. They should get the better of Slavia Prague and will be favoured to beat either Benfica or Eintracht Frankfurt, especially after the English clubs dominated two of the best Bundesliga teams in the Champions League.

Arsenal's path looks much trickier as they need to overcome Napoli and then either Valencia or Villarreal and it would not be a huge upset if they fail to reach the Semi Final. The First Leg in North London this week is vital for Arsenal if they are going to have a chance of knocking out a Napoli team that may be focusing on the Europa League with their Champions League spot virtually secure from their League form.


Below you can read my thoughts on the Champions League and Europa League First Legs to be played this week- I have covered all of the ties involving the English teams as well as the Quarter Final between Ajax and Juventus in the Champions League.


Liverpool v Porto Pick: Late goals have kept the momentum behind Liverpool as far as the Premier League title challenge is concerned, but the recent performances have come under the strain of expectation from a fanbase desperate for a first English title since 1990.

It hasn't been a real help for Liverpool, but they are battling hard and winning games breeds confidence more often than not.

On Tuesday they return to the Champions League and I think there is going to be a little more freedom about Liverpool. This is a team who have played some of their best football in the Champions League over the last eighteen months and Anfield has proved to be a very difficult environment for teams to come in and compete against them.

They had won 5 in a row in the Champions League at Anfield prior to the goalless draw with Bayern Munich, but I am not sure Porto can be as defensively sound as the German Champions were that day.

Porto lost in Rome in the last Round and had to turn things around at home, but they will be wary of Liverpool having been crushed by them in the Second Round last season. They did manage a goalless draw at Anfield, but that had a lot to do with Liverpool having a 0-5 lead from the First Leg and I think the intensity will be much greater for the home team in this one.

Jurgen Klopp is going to want a healthy lead to take to Portugal next week so Liverpool can completely focus on the big Premier League game with Chelsea this weekend. Having a big lead could also give the manager a chance to rest some key players for the League fixtures ahead and I think Porto are the ideal team for Liverpool to face in the Quarter Final as they fight on two fronts.

I have to give Porto some respect having had a 6 game unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League before losing in Rome last time out. However they have benefited from kind draws and this is a huge test for a team who have been beaten by Benfica on multiple occasions already this season.

The visitors will want to make sure there is all to play for in the Second Leg next week, but I think Liverpool are too good for them and can win by a healthy margin.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: This is an intriguing Champions League Quarter Final as Manchester City have to face another Premier League club for the second season in a row at this stage of the competition. Last season they were beaten at Anfield 3-0 in the First Leg and could not recover, but Manchester City are strong favourites to see off Tottenham Hotspur.

Kevin De Bruyne downplayed the significance of the game being held at Tottenham Hotspur's new Stadium, but I really don't know what kind of factor this will be. The atmosphere will be far more intense than it would have been if the game was played at Wembley Stadium although I do think there are other factors at play in the First Leg.

The main one is the issue of potential fatigue as Tottenham Hotspur are well rested compared with Manchester City who had the tough FA Cup Semi Final win over Brighton to get through on Saturday. At the same time Tottenham Hotspur have not played since last Wednesday so if there is a time for them to snap their losing run to the defending Premier League Champions then this feels like it.

If both Kyle Walker and Sergio Aguero can't start it makes life that much tougher for Manchester City with injuries in defensive areas beginning to pile up while Gabriel Jesus is simply not as clinical as the Argentinian he is replacing. In games out of the international break Manchester City have been more functional than blistering as they are looking to manage their way through games and I think Tottenham Hotspur are a good enough team to take advantage.

I am not sure Spurs have enough to win the game, but I think they have the pace and power to cause significant problems for Manchester City. The poor run of 3 straight losses to Manchester City is a mental obstacle to overcome, but the schedule could not have worked much better for Tottenham Hotspur and the fans should bring their best to inspire the players with the first Champions League game held in the new Stadium.

It is not easy to oppose Manchester City, but I would be surprised if they are able to put this tie to bed in the First Leg. With that in mind I will recommend backing Tottenham Hotspur with the start on the Asian Handicap that will return half the stake in the event of a Manchester City win by a single goal margin.


Ajax v Juventus Pick: Fixtures like this are what the Champions League have been all about as the four time European Champions Ajax take on two time Winners Juventus in the Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the fact that Ajax are not the force of old, but this season could be a perfect storm for them as a group of talented youngsters have come together to produce a strong campaign. This group is not likely going to be together for very long, but they are in line to win a first Dutch title since 2014 and have already reached the Champions League Quarter Final for the first time since 2003.

It has not exactly been an easy path through the competition either as Ajax negotiated three Qualifying Rounds and have come out of a Group containing Bayern Munich and Benfica. The most memorable performance came in the Last 16 though as Ajax demolished Real Madrid 1-4 in the Santiago Bernebeu to take their place in the Quarter Final, although Juventus present a whole different level of challenge.

Cristiano Ronaldo is potentially missing for the Italian Champions, which is a significant blow, and there are some injury concerns in the squad that will raise doubts about the visitors. However Juventus remain in strong form and I do think the veteran experience is going to edge out the youthful exuberance of Ajax in this Quarter Final.

Juventus have previous for that when they beat Monaco very comfortably in the Champions League Semi Final in 2017. They won both Legs against a talented young side that season and I think Juventus are going to have a bit too much for Ajax who ran into a Real Madrid team that seemed unconcerned about defending in the last Round.

Defending is a strength for Juventus who have been decent travellers in the Champions League over the last two campaigns. The defeats to Young Boys and Atletico Madrid in back to back games might not suggest that, but Juventus had won 5 in a row away from home in the Champions League prior to those results and I think they will be able to take an advantage back to Turin.

The absence of Ronaldo is a concern, but even then I think Juventus can do enough and I will back them on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw.


Manchester United v Barcelona Pick: It needed something special and a lot of good fortune for Manchester United to progress past Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16 and I think they will need to ride their luck at times if they are going to reach a first Semi Final in the Champions League since the 2010/11 season.

Let's be honest for one moment- PSG bottled the Second Leg as much as Manchester United won it and it started with a ridiculous back pass to send Romelu Lukaku through on goal and then a blunder from Gianluigi Buffon for a second goal.

Even then Manchester United needed the intervention of VAR to secure an injury time penalty in the 1-3 win in Paris on a crazy evening full of emotion. I was just as giddy as anyone out there, but in the cold light of day you do realise it is going to take something outrageous for Manchester United to beat the other big guns in the competition.

Facing Barcelona in the Quarter Final is about as tough a draw as they could have received and the First Leg is crucial for Manchester United. Produce the same result as the Paris Saint-Germain Home Leg and I think you can draw the curtain on the competition, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may be able to take more risks knowing he has been given the permanent job as manager of the club.

Ultimately Manchester United have to take risks if they want a lead to take to the Nou Camp next week and that means trying to get after a Barcelona defence that is far from watertight. The problem is leaving yourself exposed to the supreme attacking talents the visitors will be able to put on the field even if Barcelona have not been the best travellers in the Champions League in recent years.

A rested Manchester United should cause more problems on the counter attack for Barcelona with the pace in the final third. I do think that will be the case on Wednesday, although Barcelona are rightly favoured with their dominance in midfield likely leading to plenty of chances.

Manchester United scoring 1 goal in 5 home Champions League games is a real concern, but I don't believe Barcelona can keep a clean sheet, although the same applies to the home team. A 1-1 scoreline might actually suit both teams, but I think there will be enough chances in this game at both ends of the field to see at least three goals shared out in what is a classic European tie between two giants of the sport.


Arsenal v Napoli Pick: The Europa League might have been derided in some quarters in England, but this has become a competition of real importance with the opportunity of returning to the Champions League for the winner. With that bonus now attached to the trophy, English clubs have begun to really take this competition seriously and we have seen Manchester United win it in 2017 and Arsenal reach the Semi Final in 2018.

After losing 1-0 at Everton some Arsenal fans may feel the Europa League path is the best one back into the Champions League, but they have received a very tough draw for the Quarter Final.

Napoli don't look as strong as previous seasons, but there is still plenty of quality in the side and unlike Arsenal they are almost certainly secured of a top four finish in their domestic League. That means they can perhaps put more stock into trying to win the Europa League by resting players between this Quarter Final and I am anticipating a very close tie.

Neither team travels as well as they play at home so Arsenal could be frustrated they have had to switch the venue of the First and Second Leg as Chelsea are playing in London next week. UEFA didn't want both playing at home on the same MatchDay, so Arsenal have been forced to play the Home Leg first when they clearly would have preferred it the other way around.

In the last two Rounds Arsenal have recovered First Leg deficits at the Emirates Stadium, but I think the situation is similar albeit playing at home first this time. Unai Emery will know Arsenal need a lead to take to Naples so I imagine the intensity will be the same as if they were trailing from the First Leg.

Arsenal have been very good at home, although defensively they remain vulnerable. Teams might not have taken advantage, but Napoli are capable and I would not be surprised if they take an away goal back with them.

However I think Arsenal are good enough to edge the First Leg. Napoli have lost 2 of their 5 away European ties this season including a defeat in England to Liverpool. They have also failed to win in Crvena Zvezda, while recent form has been inconsistent. At least Arsenal have remained strong at home with a 7 game winning run to extend here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to have a lead going into next week's Second Leg.


Slavia Prague v Chelsea Pick: I don't think anyone associated with Chelsea will be making assumptions about how far they can go in the Europa League, but the fans have to be excited with the way the draw has panned out for them. It looks like Chelsea are facing the weakest of the teams remaining in the last eight of the competition, but overlooking Slavia Prague would be a mistake.

In the last few seasons Slavia Prague have really improved both domestically and in Europe and their win over Sevilla in the Last 16 is an exceptional performance.

They did need Extra Time to secure the win and Slavia Prague have won just 2 of their 6 home European ties this season. The side are unbeaten in those games, but it is clear that Slavia Prague still have a way to go to bridge the gap to the very top teams in Europe and will need to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to see off Chelsea in this Quarter Final.

It looks a long shot, especially as Chelsea have been very comfortable in the Europa League so far this season. The Blues have won 9 of 10 Europa League ties and they have begun to score a few goals in those wins having beaten Malmo 5-1 and Dynamo Kiev 8-0 on aggregate in the Knock Out Rounds.

You have to believe that Slavia Prague will know their best chance of winning this tie is by having an advantage to take to West London next weekend and that could make this a fairly open First Leg. Chelsea have shown they can score goals away from home in the Europa League too and I think the two teams could combine for three or more on the day.

I'd be surprised if Chelsea do not have enough to win this tie and move into the Semi Final, but the First Leg could be a competitive outing and I will look for goals to be shared out on the evening.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Juventus - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365
Manchester United-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor
Slavia Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor