There are a host of football matches to be played on Boxing Day in the traditionally busy time of the season in England.
While the players and managers might not be so happy at this time of the year, for football fans it would be strange to have a Winter Break and not have the football to enjoy while also spending some time with families over the Christmas period.
It is another busy round of games and I have the picks from the Premier League below.
I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and an enjoyable last few days in 2017 as another calendar year is about to be in the books.
Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: The opening game in the Premier League on Boxing Day comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur look to back up a solid 0-3 win at Burnley with another three points. They have the chance to put some pressure on the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool by putting up the points before both rivals play and that could see Tottenham Hotspur also move back into the top four.
The win over Burnley will have given the Tottenham Hotspur players a real shot in the arm and they now face a Southampton team who can be tough to break down, but who are not playing with a lot of confidence of their own.
Goals continue to be a problem for Southampton who had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Huddersfield Town on Saturday and the problems in front of goal have been really evidenced away from home.
They do have pace in the forward areas that could pose a threat with Tottenham Hotspur likely to be vulnerable to the counter attack. That pace was seen in the narrow loss at Manchester City, but the concern for Southampton has to be the manner of the losses at Liverpool and Chelsea.
It was a comfortable afternoon for Liverpool and should have been a comfortable win for Chelsea too, except the latter did not show the composure in front of goal to secure a win by more than a single goal margin. After Harry Kane banged in a hat-trick against Burnley I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have a little more clinical finishing than Chelsea did and I fancy the home team to win this one by a couple of goals at least.
Tottenham Hotspur have played well at Wembley Stadium in recent games and they can put together a solid win on the day.
Chelsea v Brighton Pick: It is hard to put a real mark on Chelsea and know where they stand- sometimes I watch a team who look capable of beating anyone on their day, but other times they seem to struggle and look like they are missing something. The draw at Everton was a disappointing result, but Chelsea didn't play badly and I think a return to Stamford Bridge against Brighton gives them every chance to put three points on the board.
The return of Alvaro Morata is important as the Spaniard does offer Chelsea a real focal point to their play and he has fitted in well with his new club. Morata is perhaps not as clinical in front of goal as Chelsea would like, but he pulls the team together and has worked very well with Eden Hazard.
That combination should be too hot for a Brighton team who are off a huge win over Watford, but who have not been as strong away from home. They aren't a team that are likely to be blown away as they have shown toughness in losses at Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, but a lack of goals is an issue.
The layers understand that with Chelsea a short price to win with a clean sheet, but I do think that is the most likely outcome of this one. The Brighton toughness may mean Chelsea have to settle for a pretty narrow win themselves, but I do think Chelsea will have enough to do that.
Backing them to win a game which features three or fewer goals is a tempting price here even if Chelsea might feel someone they face are going to get a hiding sooner rather than later. It might have to wait a few days for that though and I will back a Chelsea win coupled with under 3.5 goals to be scored in the match at a decent looking price.
Manchester United v Burnley Pick: 'Childish mistakes' was the way Jose Mourinho described the Manchester United performance in front of goal and in defence as they missed some glorious chances before the Leicester City equaliser deep into injury time. The manager was not impressed at dropping two points considering how much Manchester United dominated the ninety minutes, but now he has to pick up the players for consecutive games at Old Trafford.
Manchester United have been strong at the Theatre of Dreams in the 2017/18 season and I think they can bounce back from a poor result. They certainly look to be getting to Burnley at a good time with their visitors missing key defensive performers in what has been the foundation for their successes so far this season.
Stephen Ward and James Tarkowski missed the game on Saturday against Tottenham Hotspur and Burnley really did not look right defensively. The 0-3 loss could have come by a wider margin, although Burnley may be able to set up even more defensively away from home than they perhaps would like to at Turf Moor.
That could see Burnley make life difficult for a Manchester United team that potentially are feeling sorry for themselves, but I do think the home side will create chances in this one. Playing at Old Trafford has been a pleasant experience for the players this season and Manchester United will feel a similar level to the one they produced at the King Power Stadium will be enough to win this game.
I respect the fact that Burnley could make this difficult as they have for other top six clubs away from home this season.
But this might be a good time for Manchester United to face them and I will back Mourinho to find the right formula to see United win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.
Watford v Leicester City Pick: You have to think that Marco Silva will help Watford turn around their form sooner rather than later, but the fans may have to be patient. With injuries and suspensions decimating the squad, Watford are struggling and I think they are going to have a difficult time dealing with Leicester City.
The run of 4 straight losses has to come to an end soon, but Leicester City have found a formula for playing away from home and I think that shows up here.
Leicester City have scored at least three goals in wins at Newcastle United and Southampton and they have a little more confidence than Watford which could make the difference in this fixture.
It certainly doesn't look right to have Leicester City as the underdog in this fixture and backing them with a start on the Asian Handicap returns a winner as long as they don't lose this game. On current form I would expect Leicester City to at least earn a draw against a Watford team who conceded four times in a 1-4 loss to Huddersfield Town last time out at Vicarage Road.
Defensively it has been a struggle for Watford for much of the season and I expect Leicester City to expose those vulnerabilities as they force a result.
West Brom v Everton Pick: This is a set of prices that jumped off the screen when I was looking through the Premier League games for the Boxing Day fixtures. I am not sure what West Brom have done to be given the tag of favourites in this one against an improving Everton team and that makes the underdog worth backing on the Asian Handicap.
Sam Allardyce has made Everton much tougher to beat and defensively they have improved considerably already. With the problems West Brom are having in front of goal, it is hard to see how The Baggies can cause Everton enough problems to win the game, especially as there have been one or two issues defensively in recent games.
That should give Everton a chance to at least score one goal which should be enough to avoid defeat and potentially enough to win the game. Everton have a very good recent record at The Hawthorns which makes them a more appealing prospect to back on Boxing Day, and getting a start seems generous.
It will need an Everton win for a full pay out, but returns a winner as long as Everton earn any kind of result here. They certainly look good enough to do that considering the recent form of the two teams and this is the kind of game where Allardyce will look to make sure his Everton team don't lose and keep pulling away from the bottom three.
Wayne Rooney should be back to give Everton a bit more of a threat going forward and I like them here.
Liverpool v Swansea City Pick: Jurgen Klopp has cut something of a frustrated figure in recent games as Liverpool have perhaps not finished games as well as he would have liked. This is a team who have dropped a number of points from winning positions against Everton and Arsenal which has irritated the manager who has then been testy with the media.
Klopp's Liverpool are still in the top four though and they have a couple of important games at Anfield to come in the days ahead. They certainly look good enough to get back to winning ways in the League at home having drawn 3 in a row at Anfield, but Liverpool have to stop giving away as many goals as they have been.
Mistakes have been hard to erase, but Liverpool have been better defensively when they have played at home. That should show up against a Swansea City team who needed something special to unlock Crystal Palace last time out and who have been goal-shy all season.
It is a big reason Swansea City are at the bottom of the Premier League table and they do look like they are missing something in the final third. The upcoming transfer window will be important for Swansea City to resolve that, but I expect that to be an issue for them on Boxing Day.
With the attacking talent Liverpool have, I think it is hard to see them failing to score in this one and ultimately that should be enough to secure the three points. The Handicaps look wide enough to ignore when you do think of the recent Liverpool failures to win games, but I do believe they get back to winning ways on Boxing Day.
Backing Liverpool to win with a clean sheet looks the way to go here and can be found at decent enough prices.
Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: You have to think that Manchester City are going to eventually hit a poor run of form, but at the moment they look some way away from that happening. Perhaps the late wins over Huddersfield Town and Southampton a few weeks ago are as bad as it will get for Manchester City in the Premier League as they have continued to wear down opponents with their passing and movement too much for teams to handle.
This is a tougher test than the layers may think though as Newcastle United earned a confidence boosting win over West Ham United on Saturday. In saying that, Newcastle United have lost 4 straight games at home and so the layers are not giving anything away on the Manchester City price to win here.
I do anticipate Manchester City will find a way to put another three points on the board with the way they are performing. With the way the schedule has worked out, Pep Guardiola doesn't have to make wide rotation changes and Manchester City look to have the talent to prove to be the difference makers in this one.
However Manchester City haven't had it all their own way in recent away games and that is the angle I am going to play in this one. While they have been winning games, I think Manchester City are facing a Newcastle United team who will be happy to defend in numbers and so it could be a difficult time breaking them down.
I like Manchester City to win a game where there are fewer than four goals scored and that would have been a winner in 3 consecutive Manchester City away Premier League games before their 0-4 win at Swansea City. Newcastle United have conceded three times in 2 of their last 4 at home which is a concern, but they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 at St James' Park.
Manchester City look a short price to win with a clean sheet, but the bigger price of them winning a game in which less than four goals are scored is more appealing. There is every chance Manchester City blow away Newcastle United as they have done so many, but they've not been completely dominant in recent away games and they could settle for another narrow win to keep the points churning out.
Only 1 Newcastle United home game has seen more than three goals shared out this season and so backing Manchester City to win a 'low scoring' game is the call at odds against.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: This is another live offering from the Premier League this week in a busy festive period and I have to say that I am surprised Arsenal are as short a price to win as they are. As much quality as Arsenal clearly have in the squad, this is a team who have not played as well away from home as they have at the Emirates Stadium and that does not seem to be factored into the price.
In recent weeks Arsenal have needed a controversial penalty to win at Burnley, another late goal to earn a draw at Southampton and also drawn at West Ham United. That is not a great set of results and now they have to face a Crystal Palace team who have been playing very well of late.
You do have to put that into perspective though as Crystal Palace have not faced the best teams in the Premier League in recent weeks. They have beaten Chelsea at home though and Crystal Palace are a side who create chances and score goals at Selhurst Park with at least two goals scored in each of their last 6 home Premier League games.
Defensively you can get at Crystal Palace here though and the layers aren't offering great prices on there being at least three goals in this one.
However my lean was already towards backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap considering their recent form at home. The win over Chelsea shows they are capable of beating a top team here, while Arsenal have not played as well away from home and needed some luck to earn positive results.
A lack of goals on their travels has to be a concern for Arsenal and I think it is tough to expect them to win this game if Crystal Palace score twice at home again.
And with the start being given to Crystal Palace, only a defeat by two or more goals will mean a full loss, while a defeat by one goal will at least return half the stake. I actually think Crystal Palace can get a result in this one and they are a big price with the start on the Asian Handicap as far as I am concerned.
Arsenal on their day can be near unplayable, but the prices here look short considering they have won just 2 of 9 away Premier League games. The Gunners have lost at Stoke City and drawn at both Southampton and West Ham United and I think Crystal Palace are playing better than those sides to think they can at least do the same.
MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Crystal Palace + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Boxing Day. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boxing Day. Show all posts
Monday, 25 December 2017
Sunday, 25 December 2016
Boxing Day Football Picks 2016 (December 26-28)
The majority of the next round of domestic football matches will be played on Boxing Day, but the Premier League has shifted a couple of live games across Tuesday and Wednesday too. The Championship has added a couple of live games on the Tuesday.
We then will go into the final games of the 2016 calendar year later in the week as the football comes thick and fast after a 'Winter Break' of a week since the last games were played.
Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The first game up in the Premier League on Boxing Day comes from Vicarage Road and Crystal Palace will have a new face in the dugout to help them change their fortunes.
It was no surprise that Alan Pardew was let go as manager after struggling throughout the 2016 calendar year, while the arrival of Sam Allardyce will come with some controversy. His ending as England manager would be the source for that, but Allardyce is known for keeping teams well established in the Premier League and looks a good fit for Crystal Palace.
It will take time for him to get his ideas across and I am not sure he has that ahead of this Boxing Day game at Watford. The defensive problems will need to be resolved in the coming weeks, but this game might come too early and backing at least three goals to be scored between these teams looks a big price.
Crystal Palace have conceded at least three times in their last 4 away games and Watford have been better going forward at home which suggests they can expose those vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Watford have had just a single clean sheet at home all season and Crystal Palace have scored at least twice in their last 3 away games.
Games between these clubs have seen 5 of the last 7 finish with at least three goals and I will back that to happen in the opening game in the Premier League on Boxing Day.
Arsenal v West Brom Pick: There have been some excuses made in the last couple of Premier League losses for Arsenal, but they should apportion some of the blame to themselves for not putting their foot down when having Everton and Manchester City under the cosh. Failing to get any points from those couple of League games despite leading 0-1 is on Arsenal and the title challenge is already facing some difficulties.
The side have a chance to at least head into the 2017 calendar year with some momentum as they play their final game in 2016 at The Emirates Stadium. Arsenal won't take West Brom lightly having seen how well the latter played at Stamford Bridge when they faced Chelsea, but Tony Pulis sides tend to struggle here.
A problem they have is sitting back and allowing Arsenal to dictate the play which suits the home team fine. Letting Arsenal have the play gives them the opportunity to record a decent win here and 4 of their last 5 home wins against West Brom have come by a couple of goals.
Arsenal have beaten Bournemouth and Stoke City by a couple of goals in their last 2 Premier League games here and I like the home team to win by at least two goals at odds against.
Leicester City v Everton Pick: This is a big Premier League game for both Leicester City and Everton who are hoping they can start building some positive momentum to take into the 2017 calendar year.
The signs are pointing to an improvement in the Leicester City performances, while they have been much better at home which should inspire some confidence even without Jamie Vardy. That can be coupled with Everton's away struggles and Leicester City could be a favourite to win this one.
However they are missing two of their first choice back four through suspensions and Everton have shown they can score goals away from home. That should help them play a part in this one and 6 of the last 7 fixtures between these clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out.
At odds against, I will back that number to be reached again with both teams playing their part in this one and the edge likely to be given to the home team.
Manchester United v Sunderland Pick: The big story is going to be David Moyes returning to Old Trafford, but I hope the majority of fans don't bother booing someone who was simply out of his depth when managing the club. I don't believe in booing former players or managers, even if some idiots believe booing a current player is the right way to go about things.
On the pitch Manchester United look to have got all of their players available for selection in this one aside from Luke Shaw and they are in better shape than Sunderland. The away squad has been decimated by injuries, especially in midfield, and that should mean Manchester United have the majority of control and create the most chances in this one.
With Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the form he has been in, Manchester United have been threatening to hand out a big victory over someone and I think this could be the game. Sunderland have lost comfortably at Liverpool and Swansea City in their last couple of games, and Manchester United have been playing well enough to make it another solid away loss for The Black Cats.
It feels like this could be a long day for David Moyes and his team and an early goal should open things up for Manchester United. I will back the home team to win by at least two goals and feel they can go even further in what would be the second most comfortable win at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season.
Hull City v Manchester City Pick: There is a big transfer window coming up for Hull City who are trying desperately to extend their stay in the Premier League and need to bring in some new faces. Going into Christmas Day bottom of the Premier League has proved to be a death knell for some many clubs over the years, but Hull City can at least say they are still in touch with the teams above them.
Anything they can get out of this game will be seen as a bonus as Manchester City head to the North East as big favourites to win the last live Premier League game on Boxing Day. The win over Arsenal would have boosted the Manchester City confidence although their last away game was a 4-2 loss at Leicester City.
I am not sure Hull City have the attacking threat to hurt this Manchester City team like Leicester City had and I think it is going to be tough for the home team to stay with them if Manchester City produce the same level as they did in the second half against Arsenal.
The last 2 visits to The KC Stadium have ended in wins by at least two goals each time for Manchester City and I think the away team can do that again.
Hull City have lost by that margin to Arsenal and Chelsea in the League this season and half of Manchester City's 6 away Premier League wins have been by at least two goals. At just under odds against, I will back Manchester City to win by a couple of goals here.
Aston Villa v Burton Albion Pick: The form of Aston Villa and Burton Albion at home and away respectively is pointing towards the former Premier League club to get the better of a team that were two Divisions below them last season.
Steve Bruce has been inspiring his team to wins at Villa Park and the confidence looks to have been restored to the side who have scored plenty of late goals for wins in recent games. Now they face a Burton Albion team who have conceded too many goals on their travels and who have lost 4 of their last 5 away games while conceding at least two goals in each of those losses.
Aston Villa haven't been free-scoring but they have been defensively sound which has helped them and I will back them to win this League game and keep the chase going for a top six finish.
Barnsley v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Barnsley and Blackburn Rovers have been involved in some high-scoring games of late as both have looked decent going forward, but struggling at the back.
The last 5 fixtures between these clubs have also produced at least three goals, while Barnsley head into this one having seen 7 of their 11 home games in the League finish with at least three goals shared out.
Goals have been flowing in the last 3 Blackburn Rovers games which have all ended 3-2 and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.
Newcastle United v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: There is very little doubt that Newcastle United have the best squad in the Championship but the suspension of Jonjo Shelvey will hurt them. I still think they are likely to be too good for Sheffield Wednesday who have not been as strong on their travels as they have been at Hillsborough and I think that shows up in this live game.
Playing at St James' Park has been good for Newcastle United for the most part, although they have produced a couple of terrible results over the course of the season. However they have goals in the side and I think it will be tough for Sheffield Wednesday to match that in this game.
It will be close but Newcastle United can have enough of an edge to come through with the three points and I will back them to earn those.
Brighton v Queens Park Rangers Pick: There has to be a real fear for Queens Park Rangers that they are slipping back towards the third tier of English Football having recently been playing in the Premier League. Ian Holloway was supposed to arrest the slide, but his time in charge has seen Queens Park Rangers slip to 5 consecutive losses.
That doesn't bode well for them in their visit to Brighton who have been very strong at home all season and playing with the confidence that Queens Park Rangers are lacking.
Brighton have won 3 in a row against Queens Park Rangers here and I would be surprised if they don't extend that sequence. A lack of goals for Queens Park Rangers has to be a big concern and I think Brighton are playing well enough to have a fairly comfortable day in the office.
The home side have won a fair few games by at least a couple of goals at home and I will back them to do that here at odds against.
Derby County v Birmingham City Pick: The sacking of Gary Rowett is going to be a big moment in Birmingham City's season and their finish is going to be determined by this moment. If they end up outside of the Play Offs, the Birmingham City owners will be criticised for sacking Rowett, but earning promotion to the Premier League will give them full backing for this decision.
It will take time for Gianfranco Zola's methods to take hold for Birmingham City and his January recruitments are going to be very important to the success or failure of the second half of the season.
This is a tough place to visit for Birmingham City too and The Blues are not blessed with a lot of goals. That is a concern when you think Derby County have 6 clean sheets in a row at home and I do think the home team will find a goal or two to lead them to the victory.
Steve McClaren has improved the fortunes of The Rams and I think he can guide them to another important win over this festive period as they chase a Play Off spot at the least.
MY PICKS: Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aston Villa @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Barnsley-Blackburn Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.70 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Derby County @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
We then will go into the final games of the 2016 calendar year later in the week as the football comes thick and fast after a 'Winter Break' of a week since the last games were played.
Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The first game up in the Premier League on Boxing Day comes from Vicarage Road and Crystal Palace will have a new face in the dugout to help them change their fortunes.
It was no surprise that Alan Pardew was let go as manager after struggling throughout the 2016 calendar year, while the arrival of Sam Allardyce will come with some controversy. His ending as England manager would be the source for that, but Allardyce is known for keeping teams well established in the Premier League and looks a good fit for Crystal Palace.
It will take time for him to get his ideas across and I am not sure he has that ahead of this Boxing Day game at Watford. The defensive problems will need to be resolved in the coming weeks, but this game might come too early and backing at least three goals to be scored between these teams looks a big price.
Crystal Palace have conceded at least three times in their last 4 away games and Watford have been better going forward at home which suggests they can expose those vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Watford have had just a single clean sheet at home all season and Crystal Palace have scored at least twice in their last 3 away games.
Games between these clubs have seen 5 of the last 7 finish with at least three goals and I will back that to happen in the opening game in the Premier League on Boxing Day.
Arsenal v West Brom Pick: There have been some excuses made in the last couple of Premier League losses for Arsenal, but they should apportion some of the blame to themselves for not putting their foot down when having Everton and Manchester City under the cosh. Failing to get any points from those couple of League games despite leading 0-1 is on Arsenal and the title challenge is already facing some difficulties.
The side have a chance to at least head into the 2017 calendar year with some momentum as they play their final game in 2016 at The Emirates Stadium. Arsenal won't take West Brom lightly having seen how well the latter played at Stamford Bridge when they faced Chelsea, but Tony Pulis sides tend to struggle here.
A problem they have is sitting back and allowing Arsenal to dictate the play which suits the home team fine. Letting Arsenal have the play gives them the opportunity to record a decent win here and 4 of their last 5 home wins against West Brom have come by a couple of goals.
Arsenal have beaten Bournemouth and Stoke City by a couple of goals in their last 2 Premier League games here and I like the home team to win by at least two goals at odds against.
Leicester City v Everton Pick: This is a big Premier League game for both Leicester City and Everton who are hoping they can start building some positive momentum to take into the 2017 calendar year.
The signs are pointing to an improvement in the Leicester City performances, while they have been much better at home which should inspire some confidence even without Jamie Vardy. That can be coupled with Everton's away struggles and Leicester City could be a favourite to win this one.
However they are missing two of their first choice back four through suspensions and Everton have shown they can score goals away from home. That should help them play a part in this one and 6 of the last 7 fixtures between these clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out.
At odds against, I will back that number to be reached again with both teams playing their part in this one and the edge likely to be given to the home team.
Manchester United v Sunderland Pick: The big story is going to be David Moyes returning to Old Trafford, but I hope the majority of fans don't bother booing someone who was simply out of his depth when managing the club. I don't believe in booing former players or managers, even if some idiots believe booing a current player is the right way to go about things.
On the pitch Manchester United look to have got all of their players available for selection in this one aside from Luke Shaw and they are in better shape than Sunderland. The away squad has been decimated by injuries, especially in midfield, and that should mean Manchester United have the majority of control and create the most chances in this one.
With Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the form he has been in, Manchester United have been threatening to hand out a big victory over someone and I think this could be the game. Sunderland have lost comfortably at Liverpool and Swansea City in their last couple of games, and Manchester United have been playing well enough to make it another solid away loss for The Black Cats.
It feels like this could be a long day for David Moyes and his team and an early goal should open things up for Manchester United. I will back the home team to win by at least two goals and feel they can go even further in what would be the second most comfortable win at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season.
Hull City v Manchester City Pick: There is a big transfer window coming up for Hull City who are trying desperately to extend their stay in the Premier League and need to bring in some new faces. Going into Christmas Day bottom of the Premier League has proved to be a death knell for some many clubs over the years, but Hull City can at least say they are still in touch with the teams above them.
Anything they can get out of this game will be seen as a bonus as Manchester City head to the North East as big favourites to win the last live Premier League game on Boxing Day. The win over Arsenal would have boosted the Manchester City confidence although their last away game was a 4-2 loss at Leicester City.
I am not sure Hull City have the attacking threat to hurt this Manchester City team like Leicester City had and I think it is going to be tough for the home team to stay with them if Manchester City produce the same level as they did in the second half against Arsenal.
The last 2 visits to The KC Stadium have ended in wins by at least two goals each time for Manchester City and I think the away team can do that again.
Hull City have lost by that margin to Arsenal and Chelsea in the League this season and half of Manchester City's 6 away Premier League wins have been by at least two goals. At just under odds against, I will back Manchester City to win by a couple of goals here.
Aston Villa v Burton Albion Pick: The form of Aston Villa and Burton Albion at home and away respectively is pointing towards the former Premier League club to get the better of a team that were two Divisions below them last season.
Steve Bruce has been inspiring his team to wins at Villa Park and the confidence looks to have been restored to the side who have scored plenty of late goals for wins in recent games. Now they face a Burton Albion team who have conceded too many goals on their travels and who have lost 4 of their last 5 away games while conceding at least two goals in each of those losses.
Aston Villa haven't been free-scoring but they have been defensively sound which has helped them and I will back them to win this League game and keep the chase going for a top six finish.
Barnsley v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Barnsley and Blackburn Rovers have been involved in some high-scoring games of late as both have looked decent going forward, but struggling at the back.
The last 5 fixtures between these clubs have also produced at least three goals, while Barnsley head into this one having seen 7 of their 11 home games in the League finish with at least three goals shared out.
Goals have been flowing in the last 3 Blackburn Rovers games which have all ended 3-2 and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.
Newcastle United v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: There is very little doubt that Newcastle United have the best squad in the Championship but the suspension of Jonjo Shelvey will hurt them. I still think they are likely to be too good for Sheffield Wednesday who have not been as strong on their travels as they have been at Hillsborough and I think that shows up in this live game.
Playing at St James' Park has been good for Newcastle United for the most part, although they have produced a couple of terrible results over the course of the season. However they have goals in the side and I think it will be tough for Sheffield Wednesday to match that in this game.
It will be close but Newcastle United can have enough of an edge to come through with the three points and I will back them to earn those.
Brighton v Queens Park Rangers Pick: There has to be a real fear for Queens Park Rangers that they are slipping back towards the third tier of English Football having recently been playing in the Premier League. Ian Holloway was supposed to arrest the slide, but his time in charge has seen Queens Park Rangers slip to 5 consecutive losses.
That doesn't bode well for them in their visit to Brighton who have been very strong at home all season and playing with the confidence that Queens Park Rangers are lacking.
Brighton have won 3 in a row against Queens Park Rangers here and I would be surprised if they don't extend that sequence. A lack of goals for Queens Park Rangers has to be a big concern and I think Brighton are playing well enough to have a fairly comfortable day in the office.
The home side have won a fair few games by at least a couple of goals at home and I will back them to do that here at odds against.
Derby County v Birmingham City Pick: The sacking of Gary Rowett is going to be a big moment in Birmingham City's season and their finish is going to be determined by this moment. If they end up outside of the Play Offs, the Birmingham City owners will be criticised for sacking Rowett, but earning promotion to the Premier League will give them full backing for this decision.
It will take time for Gianfranco Zola's methods to take hold for Birmingham City and his January recruitments are going to be very important to the success or failure of the second half of the season.
This is a tough place to visit for Birmingham City too and The Blues are not blessed with a lot of goals. That is a concern when you think Derby County have 6 clean sheets in a row at home and I do think the home team will find a goal or two to lead them to the victory.
Steve McClaren has improved the fortunes of The Rams and I think he can guide them to another important win over this festive period as they chase a Play Off spot at the least.
MY PICKS: Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aston Villa @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Barnsley-Blackburn Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.70 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Derby County @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
December Update: 27-29, - 4.95 Units (107 Units Staked, - 4.63% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 142-145-8, + 10.70 Units (555 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Friday, 25 December 2015
Weekend Football Picks 2015 (26th December)
The Boxing Day fixtures start an eight day period when the majority of the top English teams will play three times as the squads are tested to the fullest.
At the end of that we will see the January transfer window opened as teams try to hold onto what they have while others strengthen for the big push towards the end of the season.
Let's see how things pan out by the end of the next week as some big games are played at the top and bottom of the Premier League before teams can begin to address their issues.
Stoke City v Manchester United Pick: It was an intriguing week at Old Trafford as rumours began to flow that Louis Van Gaal wasn't too far from the sack, but the Dutchman will take charge for the trip to Stoke City on Boxing Day. However I am not sure Van Gaal can survive another defeat and he could have asked for a much better couple of days than facing a trip to Stoke City and a home game with Chelsea.
There is no disguising the poor form Manchester United have been in as they look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat. Injuries haven't helped Van Gaal, but the defensive strength they have shown has also seemed to have vanished as Manchester United have conceded at least two goals in their last three games.
The lack of goals that Manchester United have produced all season makes that a tally too difficult to overcome and it is now 6 games without a win for the club. Manchester United have only scored more than one goal in 2 of their last 13 games in all competitions and this is going to be a huge test for them to see if the players are still behind the manager.
Stoke City were beaten 1-2 by Crystal Palace here last weekend, but that game could easily have gone the other way while the side have beaten Chelsea and Manchester City in two previous home games in the Premier League. There is plenty of attacking talent that can give Manchester United's defence another problem and I think the home team are a huge price to win this game.
I seriously hope I am wrong, but Manchester United have won just 1 of their last 4 Premier League games at The Brittania Stadium. They lost here two seasons ago under David Moyes and were behind last season before earning a 1-1 draw.
I am just not sure this current group of players is completely behind Van Gaal and conceding the first goal to Stoke City might see the team produce a performance similar to the one that ended David Moyes' reign at Everton. At the price, you'd be foolish to ignore the home win in my opinion even if my heart is really hoping Manchester United can turn things around.
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: There aren't many teams that have a better three game stretch than Bournemouth who have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United and West Brom to move out of the bottom three. It is no surprise they are favoured to make it four in a row against Crystal Palace at home this Boxing Day, but I am more interested in the away underdog.
That is because Crystal Palace continue to be very effective away from home as they showed in a 1-2 win at Stoke City last weekend. Of course Crystal Palace will give teams a chance to get on the front foot, one that Bournemouth will take advantage of, but that opens up the counter attack where Alan Pardew's men are most effective.
And for all the success Bournemouth have had of late, they would have lost 3 in a row at home prior to the win over Manchester United if not somehow coming back from two goals down against Everton. This is a Crystal Palace side that has won 5 of 9 away games in the Premier League this season too and I really think they are worth a small interest to come out with the three points on Boxing Day.
Crystal Palace have rarely failed to find the net away from home and I do think Bournemouth have perhaps been over-rated by some positive results. I simply don't think they are as good as the results they have produced and I like the away team for a small interest.
Chelsea v Watford Pick: There looked to be a lot more freedom in the Chelsea performance last weekend as they brushed aside Sunderland 3-1 at home, although I have no doubt they were helped by the team they were facing. However you can't ignore the fact that the players had seemingly had enough of Jose Mourinho and I can really see the side going on a bit of a run of successes.
That isn't to say it will be anything but a tough test against Watford who have proven they are more than capable of gelling a squad of players at the Premier League level. There is pace in the forward areas that makes them dangerous and Watford won't be intimidated by heading to Stamford Bridge having won 4 Premier League games in a row.
However, the game is at Stamford Bridge and I think that makes a big difference.
Guus Hiddink is clearly a popular figure for those Chelsea players left here from his last spell as interim manager and I do think he will get the team playing for him. Chelsea have too much talent to be left near the bottom of the table and I have already said I believe they will put a bit of a run together to spark a real move up the League table.
I am expecting Chelsea to use their talented attacking footballers to find a way past Watford on Boxing Day and I like them to win by a couple of goals.
Manchester City v Sunderland Pick: I think the biggest disappointment of the 2-1 loss to Arsenal will be the way Manchester City defended at key times of the match. The goal just seconds before half time that was conceded was a killer blow for Manchester City and I am expecting a response from the players.
The likes of David Silva and Sergio Aguero are getting back to fitness and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those players is rested or put on limited minutes on Saturday.
However, Manchester City have enough quality to think they can beat Sunderland at home especially with the way the latter have defended on their travels. Sunderland are conceding far too many goals and the layers have appreciated that by asking Manchester City to cover a big spread to earn the win.
Instead I think there is a good reason to back Manchester City to score at least three goals on Saturday. That is a number they have reached in 6 of their last 10 games at The Etihad Stadium in all competitions and one that Sunderland have conceded in 4 of their last 6 away games.
That includes at Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool and Manchester City have a team that can match those which is what I am expecting on Boxing Day.
Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City Pick: Last weekend was a stunning result for Norwich City in going to Manchester United and winning the game deservedly despite some poor recent away results. That might be a big reason why they are expected to give Tottenham Hotspur something to think about this weekend, but I can't help think Manchester United are not in as strong form as Spurs and I expect a much different result.
That isn't to say Tottenham Hotspur are anything but inconsistent as shown with a win at Southampton just a week after losing here to Newcastle United. That defeat does go against recent trends though as Tottenham Hotspur had won 4 of their last 5 home games before the loss to Newcastle and I think they can bounce back at White Hart Lane.
There has been a week of preparation for this game so tiredness shouldn't be a factor and I think Spurs are the better team.
For all the credit that Norwich City deserve having won at Old Trafford, this is a team that were fortunate in losing by single goal margins at Manchester City and Chelsea. Both of those teams had enough chances to win a couple of games and I think Tottenham Hotspur will take advantage of Alex Neil perhaps focusing on the home game with Aston Villa just two days later which is arguably the more important game.
Norwich City will expect to win that one rather than this game and I think Spurs win this by a couple of goals.
Newcastle United v Everton Pick: The second live game on Boxing Day comes from St James' Park and I think this has the potential of being a pretty entertaining game between two teams that have looked positive going forward. Neither has shown enough defensively to think they are going to gain too many clean sheets of late and I think the fans and the viewers could have an enjoyable game to watch.
Picking a winner is much more difficult as both teams can make a good case of doing that. The draws in recent Everton games would put me off backing them as the favourite here, but Newcastle United have had two good wins before the draw with Aston Villa, a game they had enough chances to win.
The one scoreline that I perhaps fear the most in this game is 1-1 which looks a real player, but I think both managers are desperate for the three points. It looks like being a game that will see both Newcastle United and Everton attacking for the points that is valuable for them to achieve their goals and picking up momentum at the start of a busy period.
As long as there isn't a deluge of rain like what we saw last weekend here, I think there is every chance we can see at least three goals shared between these teams.
Southampton v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League has been an inconsistent Division throughout the 2015/16 season and that has made things difficult to predict as times. From week to week we have seen teams produce some very good stuff and then followed that with some complete rubbish or vice versa.
Therefore I do have this gut feeling that Southampton may just surprise Arsenal this weekend especially as the latter are coming in off the high of beating Manchester City. However, I have to use the eye test and say Arsenal should not be odds against to win here on current form and for that reason The Gunners have to be backed to win and potentially move to the top of the table ahead of the end of the calendar year.
Arsenal have had a couple of impressive away wins behind them and will be expected to match North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur who won at St Mary's last weekend. That 0-2 win over Southampton has not impressed Ronald Koeman who believes his team are making too many individual mistakes at the moment which are costing them a chance to reverse recent form.
And recent form hasn't been good for Southampton who have also lost 3 of their last 4 games at home in all competitions which includes a thumping from Liverpool in the Capital One Cup. That has definitely knocked some confidence compared with Arsenal who are flying at the moment and so I am surprised they are odds against to win this Premier League game.
It hasn't been a great venue for Arsenal to visit in recent years, but I think they can reverse that on Boxing Day and have to be backed at the prices on offer.
MY PICKS: Stoke City @ 3.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace @ 3.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 (2 Units)
Manchester City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
At the end of that we will see the January transfer window opened as teams try to hold onto what they have while others strengthen for the big push towards the end of the season.
Let's see how things pan out by the end of the next week as some big games are played at the top and bottom of the Premier League before teams can begin to address their issues.
Stoke City v Manchester United Pick: It was an intriguing week at Old Trafford as rumours began to flow that Louis Van Gaal wasn't too far from the sack, but the Dutchman will take charge for the trip to Stoke City on Boxing Day. However I am not sure Van Gaal can survive another defeat and he could have asked for a much better couple of days than facing a trip to Stoke City and a home game with Chelsea.
There is no disguising the poor form Manchester United have been in as they look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat. Injuries haven't helped Van Gaal, but the defensive strength they have shown has also seemed to have vanished as Manchester United have conceded at least two goals in their last three games.
The lack of goals that Manchester United have produced all season makes that a tally too difficult to overcome and it is now 6 games without a win for the club. Manchester United have only scored more than one goal in 2 of their last 13 games in all competitions and this is going to be a huge test for them to see if the players are still behind the manager.
Stoke City were beaten 1-2 by Crystal Palace here last weekend, but that game could easily have gone the other way while the side have beaten Chelsea and Manchester City in two previous home games in the Premier League. There is plenty of attacking talent that can give Manchester United's defence another problem and I think the home team are a huge price to win this game.
I seriously hope I am wrong, but Manchester United have won just 1 of their last 4 Premier League games at The Brittania Stadium. They lost here two seasons ago under David Moyes and were behind last season before earning a 1-1 draw.
I am just not sure this current group of players is completely behind Van Gaal and conceding the first goal to Stoke City might see the team produce a performance similar to the one that ended David Moyes' reign at Everton. At the price, you'd be foolish to ignore the home win in my opinion even if my heart is really hoping Manchester United can turn things around.
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: There aren't many teams that have a better three game stretch than Bournemouth who have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United and West Brom to move out of the bottom three. It is no surprise they are favoured to make it four in a row against Crystal Palace at home this Boxing Day, but I am more interested in the away underdog.
That is because Crystal Palace continue to be very effective away from home as they showed in a 1-2 win at Stoke City last weekend. Of course Crystal Palace will give teams a chance to get on the front foot, one that Bournemouth will take advantage of, but that opens up the counter attack where Alan Pardew's men are most effective.
And for all the success Bournemouth have had of late, they would have lost 3 in a row at home prior to the win over Manchester United if not somehow coming back from two goals down against Everton. This is a Crystal Palace side that has won 5 of 9 away games in the Premier League this season too and I really think they are worth a small interest to come out with the three points on Boxing Day.
Crystal Palace have rarely failed to find the net away from home and I do think Bournemouth have perhaps been over-rated by some positive results. I simply don't think they are as good as the results they have produced and I like the away team for a small interest.
Chelsea v Watford Pick: There looked to be a lot more freedom in the Chelsea performance last weekend as they brushed aside Sunderland 3-1 at home, although I have no doubt they were helped by the team they were facing. However you can't ignore the fact that the players had seemingly had enough of Jose Mourinho and I can really see the side going on a bit of a run of successes.
That isn't to say it will be anything but a tough test against Watford who have proven they are more than capable of gelling a squad of players at the Premier League level. There is pace in the forward areas that makes them dangerous and Watford won't be intimidated by heading to Stamford Bridge having won 4 Premier League games in a row.
However, the game is at Stamford Bridge and I think that makes a big difference.
Guus Hiddink is clearly a popular figure for those Chelsea players left here from his last spell as interim manager and I do think he will get the team playing for him. Chelsea have too much talent to be left near the bottom of the table and I have already said I believe they will put a bit of a run together to spark a real move up the League table.
I am expecting Chelsea to use their talented attacking footballers to find a way past Watford on Boxing Day and I like them to win by a couple of goals.
Manchester City v Sunderland Pick: I think the biggest disappointment of the 2-1 loss to Arsenal will be the way Manchester City defended at key times of the match. The goal just seconds before half time that was conceded was a killer blow for Manchester City and I am expecting a response from the players.
The likes of David Silva and Sergio Aguero are getting back to fitness and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those players is rested or put on limited minutes on Saturday.
However, Manchester City have enough quality to think they can beat Sunderland at home especially with the way the latter have defended on their travels. Sunderland are conceding far too many goals and the layers have appreciated that by asking Manchester City to cover a big spread to earn the win.
Instead I think there is a good reason to back Manchester City to score at least three goals on Saturday. That is a number they have reached in 6 of their last 10 games at The Etihad Stadium in all competitions and one that Sunderland have conceded in 4 of their last 6 away games.
That includes at Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool and Manchester City have a team that can match those which is what I am expecting on Boxing Day.
Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City Pick: Last weekend was a stunning result for Norwich City in going to Manchester United and winning the game deservedly despite some poor recent away results. That might be a big reason why they are expected to give Tottenham Hotspur something to think about this weekend, but I can't help think Manchester United are not in as strong form as Spurs and I expect a much different result.
That isn't to say Tottenham Hotspur are anything but inconsistent as shown with a win at Southampton just a week after losing here to Newcastle United. That defeat does go against recent trends though as Tottenham Hotspur had won 4 of their last 5 home games before the loss to Newcastle and I think they can bounce back at White Hart Lane.
There has been a week of preparation for this game so tiredness shouldn't be a factor and I think Spurs are the better team.
For all the credit that Norwich City deserve having won at Old Trafford, this is a team that were fortunate in losing by single goal margins at Manchester City and Chelsea. Both of those teams had enough chances to win a couple of games and I think Tottenham Hotspur will take advantage of Alex Neil perhaps focusing on the home game with Aston Villa just two days later which is arguably the more important game.
Norwich City will expect to win that one rather than this game and I think Spurs win this by a couple of goals.
Newcastle United v Everton Pick: The second live game on Boxing Day comes from St James' Park and I think this has the potential of being a pretty entertaining game between two teams that have looked positive going forward. Neither has shown enough defensively to think they are going to gain too many clean sheets of late and I think the fans and the viewers could have an enjoyable game to watch.
Picking a winner is much more difficult as both teams can make a good case of doing that. The draws in recent Everton games would put me off backing them as the favourite here, but Newcastle United have had two good wins before the draw with Aston Villa, a game they had enough chances to win.
The one scoreline that I perhaps fear the most in this game is 1-1 which looks a real player, but I think both managers are desperate for the three points. It looks like being a game that will see both Newcastle United and Everton attacking for the points that is valuable for them to achieve their goals and picking up momentum at the start of a busy period.
As long as there isn't a deluge of rain like what we saw last weekend here, I think there is every chance we can see at least three goals shared between these teams.
Southampton v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League has been an inconsistent Division throughout the 2015/16 season and that has made things difficult to predict as times. From week to week we have seen teams produce some very good stuff and then followed that with some complete rubbish or vice versa.
Therefore I do have this gut feeling that Southampton may just surprise Arsenal this weekend especially as the latter are coming in off the high of beating Manchester City. However, I have to use the eye test and say Arsenal should not be odds against to win here on current form and for that reason The Gunners have to be backed to win and potentially move to the top of the table ahead of the end of the calendar year.
Arsenal have had a couple of impressive away wins behind them and will be expected to match North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur who won at St Mary's last weekend. That 0-2 win over Southampton has not impressed Ronald Koeman who believes his team are making too many individual mistakes at the moment which are costing them a chance to reverse recent form.
And recent form hasn't been good for Southampton who have also lost 3 of their last 4 games at home in all competitions which includes a thumping from Liverpool in the Capital One Cup. That has definitely knocked some confidence compared with Arsenal who are flying at the moment and so I am surprised they are odds against to win this Premier League game.
It hasn't been a great venue for Arsenal to visit in recent years, but I think they can reverse that on Boxing Day and have to be backed at the prices on offer.
MY PICKS: Stoke City @ 3.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace @ 3.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 (2 Units)
Manchester City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
December Update: 12-19, - 8.52 Units (52 Units Staked, - 16.38% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Monday, 21 December 2015
NBA Picks December 2015 (December 21-27)
It was a very good week for the NBA Picks last week which has turned around December, but there are still ten days left this month to build upon that.
This week the schedule is a little different to normal with Christmas Eve being a day off for every team in the Association before the annual Christmas Day bonanza which sees five games played back to back through the entire day.
After that we will get back to the usual NBA daily games through the majority of the rest of the season as the turn of the year also starts to shift the players attention to gelling together for Play Off runs.
At this point we are basically a third of the way through the regular season, although it has to be said that the NBA doesn't really seem to pick up steam until the NFL and College Football seasons are brought to a close. That is when the stories become larger and teams are really ready to kick on to the post-season, even if I am still not sold on the size of the Play Offs which means more teams get in than are eliminated at the end of an eighty-two game regular season.
Monday 21st December
The last picks I made were on Saturday as I wasn't convinced by too much on Sunday and also went to watch Star Wars during the day which limited any research time I had. Hopefully Monday will begin this week in the right way to ensure December ends with another successful month this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics Pick: Playing on a back to back is a difficult proposition for teams, but a young one like the Minnesota Timberwolves can't really look to fatigue as an excuse. They have gone 2-1-1 against the spread in the second of back to back games this season and the Timberwolves have to be confident having recorded consecutive wins heading into this one.
They will be making a relatively short trip from Brooklyn to Boston to take on the Celtics who have just lost their way in recent games. Defensively the Celtics are having a hard time and that is difficult to overcome with an Offensive unit that is very inconsistent.
It is four losses in five games for the Celtics and I do think the Minnesota Timberwolves can make this a close contested game. They are 9-3 against the spread as the road underdog this season and the Timberwolves have covered in all six road games against a team with a winning record.
Confidence is a big factor and there is no denying that Minnesota have that from two wins in a row compared with Boston's recent form. I still think the Celtics likely win the game, but this is a lot of points for them to cover and I will back the underdog to keep this close enough.
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Indiana Pacers were perhaps expected to challenge for a low place in the Eastern Conference Play Off picture as they changed the identity of their team. However they have been one of the more surprising teams in the NBA in the first couple of months of the season even if December has seen a little more inconsistency in their play.
The team are still winning though and only trail Cleveland by 2.5 games for the best record in the Eastern Conference, although they now face a huge test in the form of the San Antonio Spurs.
All of the casual fans might be focusing on the Golden State Warriors, but the San Antonio Spurs are quietly dismantling every team they face. They have won five in a row and four straight had come by double digits before knocking off the LA Clippers by eight points and the Spurs should be well rested for this one having had the weekend off.
San Antonio have been incredibly dominant at home and are facing an Indiana team that is a little more erratic on their travels. I respect the fact that the Pacers have a strong recent record against San Antonio, but the latter have dominated as a home favourite being asked to cover between 6.5 and 9 points this season (4-1 against the spread) and I do think the Spurs can continue their fine roll by winning here by at least ten points.
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Golden State Warriors are the team that every other in the NBA are certainly setting as the standard to reach. That is the team next up for the Utah Jazz after this game, but the home team will be wise not to overlook the Phoenix Suns as they struggle for the consistency to get into a position to challenge for Play Off places in the Western Conference.
The Western Conference has been a tough one in recent years with teams with winning records missing the Play Offs, but Utah are currently the Number 8 Seed despite an 11-14 record. Utah have been having a hard time in recent games, but did snap a four game losing run by beating the Denver Nuggets last time out.
There is no doubting that Utah have been a much better team at home, but they have just hit a rough patch Offensively which will give them problems against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns might have lost three of their last four games, but they do have few problems scoring the ball, although it is their poor Defensive record which is letting them down.
Phoenix have given up triple digits in points in seven of their last eight games and that is a tough situation to overcome. While they have been a solid road underdog, they now face a Utah team that is 17-12 against the spread when set as the home favourite of six points or fewer over the last couple of seasons.
The Suns are also just 1-5 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a losing record and they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in Utah. I like the Jazz to find a way to get another win on the board here and cover this number.
Wednesday 23rd December
I didn't like any of the four games being played on Tuesday to a good enough level that I wanted to pick them.
The week continues on Wednesday and I am looking at two big spreads as I look for one team to cover it and the other to perhaps just miss out.
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers are clearly the superior team over the New York Knicks and the latter might also be missing Carmelo Anthony.
That would be a huge loss for the Knicks, especially as the Cavaliers are getting healthier by the day. Anthony's scoring power is hard to replicate for New York, but I think there is a chance that Cleveland are looking ahead to the big Christmas Day game at the Golden State Warriors.
There is time to rest ahead of that game, but I can see a situation where the Cavaliers win this game but are not at all bothered about blowing out the Knicks. Beating the Warriors is much more important than a normal regular season game and I think Cleveland might just rest players to give their returning players a few more minutes to get back up to speed.
I'll take the points in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers Pick: It has only been a few days since the Oklahoma City Thunder blew out the LA Lakers and even a returning Kobe Bryant might not be enough to change the outcome this time. Bryant played well in a win over the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday, but playing back to back games is going to be tough for the Superstar and that is where a rested Thunder team can smash the Lakers again.
Games between them at the Staples Center have been competitive in the past and the Lakers have a strong 4-1 record against the spread in the last five between them here. However, the Lakers are also 0-2 against the spread when set as the home underdog being given 12.5 points or more and I don't think Vegas are wrong with such a big number.
Between Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook I would imagine the Thunder have enough points in this one which is tough for the Lakers to keep up with them.
I have no doubt the Lakers are going to get this much closer than the 40 point loss they suffered a few days ago. However, I still think Oklahoma City have enough to cover this spread.
Friday 25th December
Both Picks came through on Wednesday to put this week in a good position, and hopefully will mean the month ends on a positive note too.
Christmas Day has five consecutive games to be played in the NBA and I will have a few picks from those that are scheduled.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat Pick: The opening game on Christmas Day was perhaps one that the NBA would have expected to have involved two teams with winning records. The New Orleans Pelicans were a real disappointment with the way they began the season, but things are turning around as their health improves and three wins in four games should give them confidence.
It has to be said that the Miami Heat are also a team that doesn't look like they will blow out too many teams as they have been better on the Defensive side of the court than on the Offensive.
Miami have lost three of their last five home games and they would only have covered this number once in that time. The Pelicans have also won the last three in the series and have a solid 4-1 record against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record.
This does look like they are being given too many points in this game and I think backing New Orleans to keep it close will get the picks off to a winning start on Christmas Day.
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder have been in fine form in recent weeks and the team should be well rested for their Christmas Day game hosting the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder have won nine of their last ten games and demolished the LA Lakers twice in a matter of days between beating the LA Clippers.
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have been sparking the Thunder, but they will be matched by Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose in this one.
However, all is not well with the Chicago Bulls with some of their players the subject of trade rumours. The new trend of doing things in Chicago have not exactly sat well with the players and it is clear that the Bulls need more help shooting the ball to actually get things going in the right direction.
Chicago do have a winning record and will likely make the Eastern Conference Play Offs, but they have not looked anything like the tough Defensive team they have been known for in recent years. In fact it is the Thunder who might be the better Defensive team on the court in this one and I like the home team to continue their good run and cover a big number in this one.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: A rematch of the NBA Finals from last season was always going to be set for Christmas Day. With the way things are going, I am not sure there will be too many who would predict anything other than a repeat between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers in June 2016.
Both teams lead their respective Conferences and you can just imagine how much both teams have been looking forward to this game. The Cavaliers look the best team in the East by some distance so this game is very important for them to set a marker for what they can achieve come the rest of the season.
For the Golden State Warriors they have to come through a much tougher Conference, but they will know the one way to remove any doubts about their Finals win last season is by winning another Championship. Both teams have been in good shape in recent weeks, but playing in the Oracle Arena gives the Warriors a real edge in the contest.
Defensively Cleveland can give Golden State some problems, but it is hard to keep a lid on the home team in this raucous atmosphere. I don't think the Golden State Warriors should ever be favoured by less than at least eight points at home with the way they have dominated here and I think this is a game they would have circled.
That has seen the Warriors play at a very high level when fully motivated and I also believe Cleveland still need to get their roster fully healthy before they can take on Golden State.
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets Pick: One of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season have to be the Houston Rockets, although they remain on course for a spot in the Western Conference Play Offs. There can't be any more motivation needed than hosting State rivals the San Antonio Spurs on Christmas Day to at least get a big effort out of the Rockets.
They will need to be at their best if they are going to challenge the San Antonio Spurs as the latter have quietly moved behind the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference.
San Antonio are one of only four teams in the NBA who have yet to suffer double digit defeats in the season. They have been blowing out teams with a strong effort at both ends of the court, but it might be a little more challenging against the Houston Rockets on the road.
This is an Arena where San Antonio haven't been at their best as they have failed to cover in their last five games here. I expect Houston to be fully motivated to cause an upset and they have covered in their last five home games.
I respect San Antonio as a team that can get hot and blow others away with the depth they can call upon, but I will back Houston to cover here with a large number of points behind them.
Saturday 26th December
The Christmas Day games were something of a disappointment with the first going to overtime only for the New Orleans Pelicans to lose by the exact number of points to force a push.
The Golden State Warriors missed the cover by a single point as the Cleveland Cavaliers decided against fouling them with about six seconds left and down by six points. Both of those games going my way would have at least protected the weekly number to this point, but it is what it is sometimes and you have to take the rough with the smooth.
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks will be missing Jason Kidd as Head Coach for the foreseeable future. They beat Philadelphia comfortably enough, but it is a different test against a Toronto Raptors team that has won eight of the last nine in the series and are off a confidence boosting win over the Dallas Mavericks.
The Raptors have just come off the boil in recent games before the win over Dallas and they should be well rested ahead of this one. Momentum is still important for teams so Toronto can't look ahead to visiting the Chicago Bulls as they look to get some wins under the belt.
Toronto haven't played that well on the Defensive side of the court in recent games, and they continue to miss DeMarre Carroll who was brought in during the off-season to strengthen that side of things. However they have been better on the road, which can be surprising to hear, and I can see them recover here in Milwaukee.
You have to notice that Milwaukee have struggled with the better teams in the NBA while Toronto are 4-1 against the spread in road games facing teams with losing records. Milwaukee do have a winning record this season against the spread when set as a small underdog at home, but I like Toronto to cover thanks to previous success over the Bucks.
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Pick: There isn't much separating the Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference and this could be a very good game on Saturday. Both teams have decent winning records, but I think the Detroit Pistons can continue a run of dominance over the Celtics at home, although there is no doubting it will be very close.
I am not reading too much into Detroit's last loss against the Atlanta Hawks which came in a back to back spot. The Pistons have shown they are more than capable of hanging with some top teams and they should be well-rested while also having a few days to prepare for their next game.
On the other hand Boston are hosting the disliked New York Knicks at home on Sunday and a quick stop in Detroit before heading over the day after Christmas doesn't look the best spot. The Pistons have shown some better Defensive form at home and I also like the fact they are 4-0 against the spread when favoured by three points or fewer at home.
Detroit are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games against the Boston Celtics and I like them to cover this number in a tight game.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Phoenix Suns Pick: No one really wants anything to do with the Philadelphia 76ers at the moment and you will continue to get double digit spreads on them as the underdog. I am just not convinced the Phoenix Suns should be asked to cover as big a number with the way they have been playing of late as well as trying to get through some personal problems.
There was some friction between the organisation and Markieff Morris in the off-season after Phoenix traded away his twin brother Marcus. That has only been exasperated since Markieff's request to leave was ignored and it came to a head when he threw a towel at his Head Coach so he is suspended for this game.
It won't be easy for the Suns to focus on this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers their next visitors on Monday, especially out of a Christmas break. The Suns have lost five of their last six overall and they are just 3-5 against the spread when facing teams with losing records at home which would concern me too.
Philadelphia might not win on the road, but they have covered more often than not when facing the weaker teams in the NBA. The 76ers should have enough to cover if they can take advantage of some of the poisonous atmosphere developing in the Phoenix Suns dressing room and that is what I will back.
Sunday 27th December
Saturday was another solid day for the picks and ensures another winning week which has put the month of December in a promising position with just a few more days to go.
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Boston Celtics have been in very good form and are off a very good win at the Detroit Pistons. The second of back to back games sees them host the New York Knicks who also played on Saturday but were beaten easily by the Atlanta Hawks and will be expecting more from the team in this one.
I actually like the Knicks' chances of bouncing back and at least covering as they are 10-4 against the spread as the road underdog including going 5-3 against the spread when playing on the road at a team with a winning record.
There is no doubting that the Boston Celtics are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they do tend to play up and down to the level of the team they are facing. The team have also not been as dominant on the Defensive side of the court which makes this look a lot of points to cover and I do like the chances of the New York Knicks.
The Knicks are also 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen games at the TD Garden and I will look for them to cover.
MY PICKS: 21/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/12 San Antonio Spurs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/12 Utah Jazz - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/12 New York Knicks + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
23/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/12 New Orleans Pelicans + 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/12 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
25/12 Houston Rockets + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
26/12 Toronto Raptors - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/12 Detroit Pistons - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
26/12 Philadelphia 76ers + 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
27/12 New York Knicks + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 32-26-1, + 3.26 Units
This week the schedule is a little different to normal with Christmas Eve being a day off for every team in the Association before the annual Christmas Day bonanza which sees five games played back to back through the entire day.
After that we will get back to the usual NBA daily games through the majority of the rest of the season as the turn of the year also starts to shift the players attention to gelling together for Play Off runs.
At this point we are basically a third of the way through the regular season, although it has to be said that the NBA doesn't really seem to pick up steam until the NFL and College Football seasons are brought to a close. That is when the stories become larger and teams are really ready to kick on to the post-season, even if I am still not sold on the size of the Play Offs which means more teams get in than are eliminated at the end of an eighty-two game regular season.
Monday 21st December
The last picks I made were on Saturday as I wasn't convinced by too much on Sunday and also went to watch Star Wars during the day which limited any research time I had. Hopefully Monday will begin this week in the right way to ensure December ends with another successful month this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics Pick: Playing on a back to back is a difficult proposition for teams, but a young one like the Minnesota Timberwolves can't really look to fatigue as an excuse. They have gone 2-1-1 against the spread in the second of back to back games this season and the Timberwolves have to be confident having recorded consecutive wins heading into this one.
They will be making a relatively short trip from Brooklyn to Boston to take on the Celtics who have just lost their way in recent games. Defensively the Celtics are having a hard time and that is difficult to overcome with an Offensive unit that is very inconsistent.
It is four losses in five games for the Celtics and I do think the Minnesota Timberwolves can make this a close contested game. They are 9-3 against the spread as the road underdog this season and the Timberwolves have covered in all six road games against a team with a winning record.
Confidence is a big factor and there is no denying that Minnesota have that from two wins in a row compared with Boston's recent form. I still think the Celtics likely win the game, but this is a lot of points for them to cover and I will back the underdog to keep this close enough.
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Indiana Pacers were perhaps expected to challenge for a low place in the Eastern Conference Play Off picture as they changed the identity of their team. However they have been one of the more surprising teams in the NBA in the first couple of months of the season even if December has seen a little more inconsistency in their play.
The team are still winning though and only trail Cleveland by 2.5 games for the best record in the Eastern Conference, although they now face a huge test in the form of the San Antonio Spurs.
All of the casual fans might be focusing on the Golden State Warriors, but the San Antonio Spurs are quietly dismantling every team they face. They have won five in a row and four straight had come by double digits before knocking off the LA Clippers by eight points and the Spurs should be well rested for this one having had the weekend off.
San Antonio have been incredibly dominant at home and are facing an Indiana team that is a little more erratic on their travels. I respect the fact that the Pacers have a strong recent record against San Antonio, but the latter have dominated as a home favourite being asked to cover between 6.5 and 9 points this season (4-1 against the spread) and I do think the Spurs can continue their fine roll by winning here by at least ten points.
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Golden State Warriors are the team that every other in the NBA are certainly setting as the standard to reach. That is the team next up for the Utah Jazz after this game, but the home team will be wise not to overlook the Phoenix Suns as they struggle for the consistency to get into a position to challenge for Play Off places in the Western Conference.
The Western Conference has been a tough one in recent years with teams with winning records missing the Play Offs, but Utah are currently the Number 8 Seed despite an 11-14 record. Utah have been having a hard time in recent games, but did snap a four game losing run by beating the Denver Nuggets last time out.
There is no doubting that Utah have been a much better team at home, but they have just hit a rough patch Offensively which will give them problems against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns might have lost three of their last four games, but they do have few problems scoring the ball, although it is their poor Defensive record which is letting them down.
Phoenix have given up triple digits in points in seven of their last eight games and that is a tough situation to overcome. While they have been a solid road underdog, they now face a Utah team that is 17-12 against the spread when set as the home favourite of six points or fewer over the last couple of seasons.
The Suns are also just 1-5 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a losing record and they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in Utah. I like the Jazz to find a way to get another win on the board here and cover this number.
Wednesday 23rd December
I didn't like any of the four games being played on Tuesday to a good enough level that I wanted to pick them.
The week continues on Wednesday and I am looking at two big spreads as I look for one team to cover it and the other to perhaps just miss out.
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers are clearly the superior team over the New York Knicks and the latter might also be missing Carmelo Anthony.
That would be a huge loss for the Knicks, especially as the Cavaliers are getting healthier by the day. Anthony's scoring power is hard to replicate for New York, but I think there is a chance that Cleveland are looking ahead to the big Christmas Day game at the Golden State Warriors.
There is time to rest ahead of that game, but I can see a situation where the Cavaliers win this game but are not at all bothered about blowing out the Knicks. Beating the Warriors is much more important than a normal regular season game and I think Cleveland might just rest players to give their returning players a few more minutes to get back up to speed.
I'll take the points in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers Pick: It has only been a few days since the Oklahoma City Thunder blew out the LA Lakers and even a returning Kobe Bryant might not be enough to change the outcome this time. Bryant played well in a win over the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday, but playing back to back games is going to be tough for the Superstar and that is where a rested Thunder team can smash the Lakers again.
Games between them at the Staples Center have been competitive in the past and the Lakers have a strong 4-1 record against the spread in the last five between them here. However, the Lakers are also 0-2 against the spread when set as the home underdog being given 12.5 points or more and I don't think Vegas are wrong with such a big number.
Between Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook I would imagine the Thunder have enough points in this one which is tough for the Lakers to keep up with them.
I have no doubt the Lakers are going to get this much closer than the 40 point loss they suffered a few days ago. However, I still think Oklahoma City have enough to cover this spread.
Friday 25th December
Both Picks came through on Wednesday to put this week in a good position, and hopefully will mean the month ends on a positive note too.
Christmas Day has five consecutive games to be played in the NBA and I will have a few picks from those that are scheduled.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat Pick: The opening game on Christmas Day was perhaps one that the NBA would have expected to have involved two teams with winning records. The New Orleans Pelicans were a real disappointment with the way they began the season, but things are turning around as their health improves and three wins in four games should give them confidence.
It has to be said that the Miami Heat are also a team that doesn't look like they will blow out too many teams as they have been better on the Defensive side of the court than on the Offensive.
Miami have lost three of their last five home games and they would only have covered this number once in that time. The Pelicans have also won the last three in the series and have a solid 4-1 record against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record.
This does look like they are being given too many points in this game and I think backing New Orleans to keep it close will get the picks off to a winning start on Christmas Day.
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder have been in fine form in recent weeks and the team should be well rested for their Christmas Day game hosting the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder have won nine of their last ten games and demolished the LA Lakers twice in a matter of days between beating the LA Clippers.
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have been sparking the Thunder, but they will be matched by Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose in this one.
However, all is not well with the Chicago Bulls with some of their players the subject of trade rumours. The new trend of doing things in Chicago have not exactly sat well with the players and it is clear that the Bulls need more help shooting the ball to actually get things going in the right direction.
Chicago do have a winning record and will likely make the Eastern Conference Play Offs, but they have not looked anything like the tough Defensive team they have been known for in recent years. In fact it is the Thunder who might be the better Defensive team on the court in this one and I like the home team to continue their good run and cover a big number in this one.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: A rematch of the NBA Finals from last season was always going to be set for Christmas Day. With the way things are going, I am not sure there will be too many who would predict anything other than a repeat between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers in June 2016.
Both teams lead their respective Conferences and you can just imagine how much both teams have been looking forward to this game. The Cavaliers look the best team in the East by some distance so this game is very important for them to set a marker for what they can achieve come the rest of the season.
For the Golden State Warriors they have to come through a much tougher Conference, but they will know the one way to remove any doubts about their Finals win last season is by winning another Championship. Both teams have been in good shape in recent weeks, but playing in the Oracle Arena gives the Warriors a real edge in the contest.
Defensively Cleveland can give Golden State some problems, but it is hard to keep a lid on the home team in this raucous atmosphere. I don't think the Golden State Warriors should ever be favoured by less than at least eight points at home with the way they have dominated here and I think this is a game they would have circled.
That has seen the Warriors play at a very high level when fully motivated and I also believe Cleveland still need to get their roster fully healthy before they can take on Golden State.
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets Pick: One of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season have to be the Houston Rockets, although they remain on course for a spot in the Western Conference Play Offs. There can't be any more motivation needed than hosting State rivals the San Antonio Spurs on Christmas Day to at least get a big effort out of the Rockets.
They will need to be at their best if they are going to challenge the San Antonio Spurs as the latter have quietly moved behind the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference.
San Antonio are one of only four teams in the NBA who have yet to suffer double digit defeats in the season. They have been blowing out teams with a strong effort at both ends of the court, but it might be a little more challenging against the Houston Rockets on the road.
This is an Arena where San Antonio haven't been at their best as they have failed to cover in their last five games here. I expect Houston to be fully motivated to cause an upset and they have covered in their last five home games.
I respect San Antonio as a team that can get hot and blow others away with the depth they can call upon, but I will back Houston to cover here with a large number of points behind them.
Saturday 26th December
The Christmas Day games were something of a disappointment with the first going to overtime only for the New Orleans Pelicans to lose by the exact number of points to force a push.
The Golden State Warriors missed the cover by a single point as the Cleveland Cavaliers decided against fouling them with about six seconds left and down by six points. Both of those games going my way would have at least protected the weekly number to this point, but it is what it is sometimes and you have to take the rough with the smooth.
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks will be missing Jason Kidd as Head Coach for the foreseeable future. They beat Philadelphia comfortably enough, but it is a different test against a Toronto Raptors team that has won eight of the last nine in the series and are off a confidence boosting win over the Dallas Mavericks.
The Raptors have just come off the boil in recent games before the win over Dallas and they should be well rested ahead of this one. Momentum is still important for teams so Toronto can't look ahead to visiting the Chicago Bulls as they look to get some wins under the belt.
Toronto haven't played that well on the Defensive side of the court in recent games, and they continue to miss DeMarre Carroll who was brought in during the off-season to strengthen that side of things. However they have been better on the road, which can be surprising to hear, and I can see them recover here in Milwaukee.
You have to notice that Milwaukee have struggled with the better teams in the NBA while Toronto are 4-1 against the spread in road games facing teams with losing records. Milwaukee do have a winning record this season against the spread when set as a small underdog at home, but I like Toronto to cover thanks to previous success over the Bucks.
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Pick: There isn't much separating the Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference and this could be a very good game on Saturday. Both teams have decent winning records, but I think the Detroit Pistons can continue a run of dominance over the Celtics at home, although there is no doubting it will be very close.
I am not reading too much into Detroit's last loss against the Atlanta Hawks which came in a back to back spot. The Pistons have shown they are more than capable of hanging with some top teams and they should be well-rested while also having a few days to prepare for their next game.
On the other hand Boston are hosting the disliked New York Knicks at home on Sunday and a quick stop in Detroit before heading over the day after Christmas doesn't look the best spot. The Pistons have shown some better Defensive form at home and I also like the fact they are 4-0 against the spread when favoured by three points or fewer at home.
Detroit are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games against the Boston Celtics and I like them to cover this number in a tight game.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Phoenix Suns Pick: No one really wants anything to do with the Philadelphia 76ers at the moment and you will continue to get double digit spreads on them as the underdog. I am just not convinced the Phoenix Suns should be asked to cover as big a number with the way they have been playing of late as well as trying to get through some personal problems.
There was some friction between the organisation and Markieff Morris in the off-season after Phoenix traded away his twin brother Marcus. That has only been exasperated since Markieff's request to leave was ignored and it came to a head when he threw a towel at his Head Coach so he is suspended for this game.
It won't be easy for the Suns to focus on this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers their next visitors on Monday, especially out of a Christmas break. The Suns have lost five of their last six overall and they are just 3-5 against the spread when facing teams with losing records at home which would concern me too.
Philadelphia might not win on the road, but they have covered more often than not when facing the weaker teams in the NBA. The 76ers should have enough to cover if they can take advantage of some of the poisonous atmosphere developing in the Phoenix Suns dressing room and that is what I will back.
Sunday 27th December
Saturday was another solid day for the picks and ensures another winning week which has put the month of December in a promising position with just a few more days to go.
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Boston Celtics have been in very good form and are off a very good win at the Detroit Pistons. The second of back to back games sees them host the New York Knicks who also played on Saturday but were beaten easily by the Atlanta Hawks and will be expecting more from the team in this one.
I actually like the Knicks' chances of bouncing back and at least covering as they are 10-4 against the spread as the road underdog including going 5-3 against the spread when playing on the road at a team with a winning record.
There is no doubting that the Boston Celtics are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they do tend to play up and down to the level of the team they are facing. The team have also not been as dominant on the Defensive side of the court which makes this look a lot of points to cover and I do like the chances of the New York Knicks.
The Knicks are also 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen games at the TD Garden and I will look for them to cover.
MY PICKS: 21/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/12 San Antonio Spurs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/12 Utah Jazz - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/12 New York Knicks + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
23/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/12 New Orleans Pelicans + 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/12 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
25/12 Houston Rockets + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
26/12 Toronto Raptors - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/12 Detroit Pistons - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
26/12 Philadelphia 76ers + 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
27/12 New York Knicks + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
December 21-27 Update: 7-5-1, + 1.35 Units
December 14-20 Final: 9-3-1, + 5.19 Units
December 7-13 Final: 2-4, - 2.14 Units
December 14-20 Final: 9-3-1, + 5.19 Units
December 7-13 Final: 2-4, - 2.14 Units
December 1-6 Final: 5-5, - 0.37 Units
December Update: 16-12-1, + 2.68 UnitsNovember Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 32-26-1, + 3.26 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
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