Boxing Day Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (December 26-27)

Let's be honest, this is a time of the year where most of us will be spending time with families so there is only limited time to produce the three threads needed to cover the Premier League fixtures and Fantasy Football plays.

I am going to get into it with the Picks from the Boxing Day round of games below followed by my GW19 team which is not going to have any transfers added to it after I played my Wild Card in GW18 as I had mentioned.


Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: I was largely disappointed with the Tottenham Hotspur performance on Sunday, but the continued defensive errors will be frustrating Jose Mourinho. There is nothing I can say to justify the penalty given away by Spurs in the loss to Chelsea which came in injury time at the end of the first half, but the lack of a real threat in the final third reminded me of the levels produced against Manchester United earlier this month.

It is something Mourinho is going to have to fix if Tottenham Hotspur are going to get closer to the top four, but they have at least played well against the teams lower down the Premier League table. Since the new manager has arrived, Tottenham Hotspur have beaten West Ham United, Bournemouth and Burnley and Spurs have scored plenty of goals in those games.

Losing Heung-Min Son to suspension is a blow to the team, but there is enough quality in the final third to believe they can cover for that in their next three games beginning with this one against Brighton.

I do like what Graham Potter is doing with Brighton and they are a much more pleasing team to watch, although results will ultimately determine whether or not this is a successful season. It does look like Brighton are going to have to avoid the drop, while they did recently win down the road at the Emirates Stadium, but this is a team that has mainly struggled for form away from home.

They do attack teams and that has resulted in a few goals, but Brighton have not defended well and they do offer up chances. I think that will be the case on Boxing Day and Tottenham Hotspur can exploit that in a win as I look for them to bounce back from the loss to Chelsea by seeing off Brighton in a game that I expect features two or more goals.


Aston Villa v Norwich City Pick: After seeing the Aston Villa performance in the 1-3 home loss to Southampton last Saturday I don't think you could reasonably back them with any expectation. That makes them a very short price to win this big fixture, although Norwich City have looked vulnerable away from home for much of the season.

A couple of weeks ago I would have been more comfortable in backing Aston Villa, but that defeat to Southampton coupled with the fact that Norwich City have found positive results at Everton and Leicester City recently makes it a much harder game to read.

Like Saturday I would not be surprised if both teams score and at least three goals are shared out on the day, but those markets are plenty short too.

It could be a fun game for the neutrals to enjoy, but a tense one for two sets of fans hoping for a late Christmas present as they bid to avoid the drop into the Championship. Personally I think there are better options you can back out there.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: The Arsenal trip to Everton was a miserable game of football on the field and the most intriguing aspect of the day was the away fans turning on Arsenal TV, a fan YouTube Channel which irritates me and finally seems to be grating on those who follow this club around the world.

It shows the kind of divide that exists at Arsenal and Mikel Arteta can't be underestimating the tough job in front of him as a rookie manager. Two years ago it was considered that Arteta was not experienced enough to take over at Arsenal, but he has been learning under Pep Guardiola since then and the Spaniard is confident he can get this club turned around.

His first team selection is going to be interesting and there are a number of injury issues and suspensions to deal with.

At least Arsenal secured a clean sheet on Saturday as they have looked like a team who will score goals. The clean sheet will be a boost to the defence and to Arteta and I think they will be able to get the better of their hosts on Boxing Day.

Bournemouth are in miserable form and they are missing some big time players in the squad ahead of this fixture. The 0-1 defeat to Burnley at the Vitality Stadium means Bournemouth have not scored in their last 2 games here, while Bournemouth have lost 6 of their last 7 overall including the last 3 in a row in front of their own fans.

They don't have the best record against Arsenal and you have to think The Gunners will find enough in the final third to secure a vital three points on Boxing Day. It won't come easy and the first goal is going to be huge for both clubs, but I think Arsenal have shown a little more in the final third in creating chances of late and that can see them win at odds against before two big home games against Chelsea and Manchester United.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: In recent weeks we have seen Chelsea earn some big results and fail to follow them up and so that is the challenge for Frank Lampard and his players on Boxing Day when they host Southampton.

The win at Tottenham Hotspur was very deserved for Chelsea, but they have lost 2 of their last 3 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge. Those losses to West Ham United and Bournemouth are not against the best teams in the Premier League and Chelsea have found it difficult when they have not taken the early chances they have created.

It will be encouraging for Southampton who impressively saw off Aston Villa on Saturday and who have scored in 11 away games in a row in all competitions. That includes scoring at Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City (twice) and Arsenal so playing at Stamford Bridge should hold no fear for The Saints who have nothing to lose having moved out of the bottom three.

No one will expect anything from Southampton, and they had lost 4 of 6 on their travels before the win over Aston Villa. With that in mind this feels like a game in which they can play their part, but the defensive problems are likely going to give Chelsea ample chances to still come away with a win.

Chelsea have not had the best recent home record against Southampton with 2 wins from their last 5 at Stamford Bridge against them. That might make some reconsider the very short odds on the home win, but I think Chelsea have been creating chances and should be very confident after winning so well at Tottenham Hotspur.

A home win in a game that features three or more goals looks the outcome of this one.


Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: Having had the weekend off I can make a reasonable case to back West Ham United to win at Selhurst Park, but I don't want to underestimate the home team.

Roy Hodgson's men are lacking goals and they are not defending as well as the run of clean sheets are suggesting. They have conceded in their last 2 Premier League games and Crystal Palace don't look capable of winning games if they do that, but West Ham United have been porous defensively which makes them hard to trust too.

I can see both teams coming in with belief, but it might be a tight game with all three results something you can make a case for. Again there look to be better options out there on Boxing Day through to the late Friday night game and I will look at those instead.


Everton v Burnley Pick: This is an important game for both Burnley and Everton who are coming off League fixtures in which they have earned clean sheets.

Managing the first of two games to be played in three days is challenging for every manager in the League, but it might be a bigger test for Carlo Ancelotti who will want to get a first hand experience of the squad he has inherited at Goodison Park.

The appointment of Ancelotti looks a real coup for Everton who are trying to break into the 'top six club' in the Premier League. A suggestion has been made that Ancelotti will be given serious funds to change the squad, but Everton might not be the most appealing destination for the big names so the Italian's Coaching skills will be tested here.

Everton have played well at home over the last twelve months, although they are in the midst of some poor form here. Scoring goals remains a big problem for the team, but they should have chances against a Burnley team who have not looked completely watertight at the back.

On the other hand Burnley have shown they have a style which can cause problems with two big strikers capable of causing havoc. They were not at their best at Bournemouth, but the weather conditions were pretty terrible and I think Burnley have shown enough in the final third in the last month to believe they can at least score here.

It makes this a hard game to read, but I do think Everton will have a bounce thanks to the excitement of having someone like Carlo Ancelotti taking over as manager. Before the goalless draw with Arsenal, Everton had scored three against Chelsea and two against Leicester City in games here and I think they will play their part in a surprisingly high-scoring game.

Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the selection.


Sheffield United v Watford Pick: The strong win over Manchester United will have just given the Watford squad an injection of confidence to take into the three games to be played across a seven day period.

However Watford can't expect to have things as comfortable as they were at Vicarage Road when they visit Sheffield United who have won 3 in a row in the Premier League.

Sheffield United have proven to be a very good Premier League team with a solid balance between attack and defence and they are now finding the end product to the chances being created. It is a different kind of test when you are expected to win games, and Sheffield United were beaten by Newcastle United in that spot recently, but the victory over Aston Villa suggests Chris Wilder has kept his squad's feet firmly planted on the ground.

As strong as the Watford performance and result was on Sunday, they are a team who will have had one less day to recover and have lost 3 away games in a row while conceding at least twice each time. Defensively there are some major injury concerns and Ben Foster is going to need to have a big game if Watford are able to earn a positive result.

Watford have also struggled for goals and I think there is enough there to back Sheffield United to win this game. It might be closer than some think because The Blades are unlikely to cut through teams constantly and especially not without the clinical finishing that others in the League can offer, but even then I believe the home team create enough to win this game.

They failed at odds on to beat Newcastle United, but I think Sheffield United make up for that on Boxing Day.


Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: It really felt like Manchester United hit rock bottom on Sunday after losing to the club propping up the rest in the Premier League. At this stage of the rebuild Manchester United are going to have setbacks, but the limp performance until it was too late suggests a deeper issue and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is back under the gun.

The return of Paul Pogba was a positive, but Manchester United need to quickly bounce back ahead of two tough looking away games at Burnley and Arsenal. They host Newcastle United on Boxing Day and the 4 draws from the last 6 Premier League games at Old Trafford is just not good enough for a team that is better than the 8th place they occupy.

Games at home have at least seen Manchester United produce a few more chances in recent weeks and I do think they could be facing Newcastle United at the right time. At this stage of the season managers have to balance their squads with games coming very quickly and I would not be surprised if Steve Bruce will be keeping some players held back for a much more winnable home game against Everton which is played forty-eight hours after this one is concluded.

Bruce has said as much by hinting some players are not able to play twice in a short space of time and I think that could leave Newcastle United vulnerable. They are already weakened at the back with injuries taking a toll and losing Paul Dummett is another blow that should give Manchester United a chance to take advantage.

I expect changes in the home team too after a slow tempo was set by the starters on Sunday. Expect the likes of Andreas Pereira and possibly Brandon Williams being drafted in, while Mason Greenwood must deserve an opportunity.

The biggest key could be a return to starting action for Paul Pogba who made a big difference in the time he was on the pitch on Sunday. A player who is looking to pass the ball forward with quality has been missing and Pogba showed enough to believe two more days of training will be good enough for him to start as long as he has not had a negative reaction to the first football played since the end of September.

I think Pogba will help break down a Newcastle United team that will be looking to sit in deep and I would not be surprised if Bruce has targeted the two home games coming up as being more important than this one. It might offer Manchester United a rare opportunity to beat a club sitting below them in the Premier League table and I think the home team can be backed to cover the Asian Handicap considering the chances they have been creating and the addition of Pogba to the starting ine up.

Manchester United are not easy to back at the prices for obvious reasons, but I think they should have enough to beat a Newcastle United team who have lost 5 of their last 7 away from home.


Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: The final Premier League game to be played on Boxing Day is a big one as it is being competed by the current top two in the table, but some of the power of the match has to have been lost by the manner in which Leicester City were beaten by Manchester City on Saturday.

Just judging that one result you can't really criticise Brendan Rodgers and his players as many will have been outplayed by Manchester City.

But this has come at a time when Manchester City have looked vulnerable and Leicester City were trying to show they are genuine title contenders. Instead of showing that, The Foxes were beaten convincingly and are 10 points behind Liverpool having played a game more.

Anything less than a win would make it very difficult to believe Leicester City will be able to close that gap in the second half of the season. They have to knock Liverpool's confidence by beating them and hoping others can follow suit, but it won't be easy for Leicester City having been given the runaround by Manchester City just a few days ago.

Thankfully for them, Liverpool needed Extra Time to win the World Club Cup against Flamengo on Saturday and will be travelling back to England to prepare for this Premier League game. The League leaders are missing some defenders and Fabinho which may give Leicester City some encouragement, especially when you see chances the likes of Watford and Monterrey have created against Liverpool of late.

Controlling the front three is a difficult task though and games between Leicester City and Liverpool have been high-scoring ones in recent seasons. They already shared out three goals at Anfield this season which means 6 of the last 7 Premier League games between the clubs have resulted in that total mark being hit.

4 of the last 5 Premier League games between these clubs at the King Power Stadium have also seen three or more goals shared out and I would be surprised if both teams do not score here. The 1-1 won't be a bad result for Liverpool who will be happy to maintain the gap to Leicester City, but the home team pushing on could leave them open at the back and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out on Boxing Day.


Wolves v Manchester City Pick: It does feel like the Premier League title is going to be beyond Manchester City already as they face an eleven point deficit to leaders Liverpool who have a game in hand. Pep Guardiola is hoping the likes of Leicester City, Wolves and Sheffield United can step up when they face Liverpool, but his own Manchester City team face each of those opponents in the immediate game before they go on and face Liverpool.

Last Saturday Manchester City came from behind to beat Leicester City convincingly at the Etihad Stadium and they have some momentum behind them. There is no doubt that Manchester City are a team who could string ten or eleven League wins in a row and they are going to be a tough test for anyone they face.

There have been times Manchester City have not convinced at the back though and those vulnerabilities have been exposed by teams who can counter with pace. One of those was Wolves who won 0-2 at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season and I think the home team are going to pose plenty of questions for Manchester City on Friday evening.

Wolves have been in good form and they should have at least avoided a defeat when hosting Tottenham Hotspur in their last game here. There are still some questions about them from a defensive point of view though and I think this is a game that can see both teams having their chances to score.

That has been the outcome in 6 of the last 7 away Manchester City games played in all competitions while it has also happened in 4 of the last 5 home Wolves Premier League games. I would be surprised if Manchester City didn't score as they have been very productive in the final third all season and have Sergio Aguero back in contention, while Wolves have been creative in the final third and will exploit spaces that Manchester City leave behind.

It is an attractive price and I think backing both teams to score is the right play.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Coral (2 Units)
Everton-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Sheffield United @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Manchester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

December 2019/20: 12-10, + 1.40 Units (44 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 19

I don't know what has happened over the last month, but the slip from around 75K in the FPL game to down to 800K has been as frustrating as it could be.

It goes back to all of the early mistakes with my Captain and those points that have been left on the table, but I have also not had a lot of luck with the players picked. Twice in the last six weeks my Captain has had a goal ruled out by the nonsense VAR system used by the Premier League, while I seem to be on the wrong side of some form (Todd Cantwell, I hope you are well).

We have only reached the halfway mark of the season though and I am not going to worry too much about the slide knowing things could quickly change back in my favour. The decision to still manage without the top two Leicester City players has continued to hurt me, but I am not going to let this season go the way of the 2015/16 campaign and that was in my mind when making my Wild Card selections.

This week I won't be making any transfers as I had looked to put a squad together that could negotiate the GW18 and GW19 schedules. I am also going to stick with one Captain during this very busy festive period, although bringing in Harry Kane to do that job was not an effective one as I finished with the same amount of points as the average.

My GW19 Fantasy Team

Paulo Gazzaniga- the performance in GW18 summed up my last month... He doesn't just concede twice, but concedes the most ridiculous penalty you will see. Would have underlined the nonsense of the last month if he had been sent off, but a home game with Brighton is a chance to make amends.

Serge Aurier- might not be the best defender in the world, but a real outlet for Spurs in system used by Jose Mourinho and can get amongst the goals and assists.

Harry Maguire- am I biased because I support Manchester United? Maybe, but I do think United can keep a clean sheet on Boxing Day, although I might not bet on that.

John Lundstram- the FPL cult hero has a home game with Watford.

Jack Grealish- one of the rare successes of my Wild Card, Grealish scored again on Saturday and is a big threat for Aston Villa against a defensively weak Norwich City.

Christian Pulisic- did not play on Sunday in the win at Tottenham Hotspur, but I think his underlying stats have been good. Needs a goal, maybe a risky pick if he doesn't start, but I think the American is a good price for now.

Sadio Mane- coming back from Qatar, Liverpool look stronger favourites to win the Premier League title. Winning at the King Power Stadium won't be easy but Mane is a big threat for the League leaders.

Kevin De Bruyne- a cramp ended his game against Leicester City, but he should be good to go by Friday. The Belgian has been in great form for Manchester City.

Wesley- he hasn't scored in months in the Premier League, but Wesley is a stats play considering the chances that have come his way. The goal against Liverpool in the League Cup has to have boosted confidence, but he is a short-term option with games coming up for Aston Villa.

Marcus Rashford- the return of Paul Pogba should boost the Marcus Rashford chances for attacking returns. I think he has been in good form and there are some good fixtures ahead until United travel to Liverpool.

Harry Kane (C)- he has been back in more attacking positions under Mourinho than he was at the end of Mauricio Pochettino's era at Tottenham Hotspur. On penalties and with games against Brighton, Norwich City and Southampton to come I will back Harry Kane as my Captain for the entire festive period.

Bench- Micahel McGovern, James Ward-Prowse (away game at Chelsea, but I don't mind the Southampton midfielder as first sub as he has the set piece threat to surprise), Caglar Soyuncu (hard to expect a clean sheet against Liverpool, but I doubt Leicester City concede more than two goals), Federico Fernandez (there might be some changes to the Newcastle United starting eleven which weakens them for the trip to Old Trafford).

Boxing Day Football Picks 2017 (December 26-28)

There are a host of football matches to be played on Boxing Day in the traditionally busy time of the season in England.

While the players and managers might not be so happy at this time of the year, for football fans it would be strange to have a Winter Break and not have the football to enjoy while also spending some time with families over the Christmas period.

It is another busy round of games and I have the picks from the Premier League below.

I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and an enjoyable last few days in 2017 as another calendar year is about to be in the books.


Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: The opening game in the Premier League on Boxing Day comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur look to back up a solid 0-3 win at Burnley with another three points. They have the chance to put some pressure on the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool by putting up the points before both rivals play and that could see Tottenham Hotspur also move back into the top four.

The win over Burnley will have given the Tottenham Hotspur players a real shot in the arm and they now face a Southampton team who can be tough to break down, but who are not playing with a lot of confidence of their own.

Goals continue to be a problem for Southampton who had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Huddersfield Town on Saturday and the problems in front of goal have been really evidenced away from home.

They do have pace in the forward areas that could pose a threat with Tottenham Hotspur likely to be vulnerable to the counter attack. That pace was seen in the narrow loss at Manchester City, but the concern for Southampton has to be the manner of the losses at Liverpool and Chelsea.

It was a comfortable afternoon for Liverpool and should have been a comfortable win for Chelsea too, except the latter did not show the composure in front of goal to secure a win by more than a single goal margin. After Harry Kane banged in a hat-trick against Burnley I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have a little more clinical finishing than Chelsea did and I fancy the home team to win this one by a couple of goals at least.

Tottenham Hotspur have played well at Wembley Stadium in recent games and they can put together a solid win on the day.


Chelsea v Brighton Pick: It is hard to put a real mark on Chelsea and know where they stand- sometimes I watch a team who look capable of beating anyone on their day, but other times they seem to struggle and look like they are missing something. The draw at Everton was a disappointing result, but Chelsea didn't play badly and I think a return to Stamford Bridge against Brighton gives them every chance to put three points on the board.

The return of Alvaro Morata is important as the Spaniard does offer Chelsea a real focal point to their play and he has fitted in well with his new club. Morata is perhaps not as clinical in front of goal as Chelsea would like, but he pulls the team together and has worked very well with Eden Hazard.

That combination should be too hot for a Brighton team who are off a huge win over Watford, but who have not been as strong away from home. They aren't a team that are likely to be blown away as they have shown toughness in losses at Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, but a lack of goals is an issue.

The layers understand that with Chelsea a short price to win with a clean sheet, but I do think that is the most likely outcome of this one. The Brighton toughness may mean Chelsea have to settle for a pretty narrow win themselves, but I do think Chelsea will have enough to do that.

Backing them to win a game which features three or fewer goals is a tempting price here even if Chelsea might feel someone they face are going to get a hiding sooner rather than later. It might have to wait a few days for that though and I will back a Chelsea win coupled with under 3.5 goals to be scored in the match at a decent looking price.


Manchester United v Burnley Pick: 'Childish mistakes' was the way Jose Mourinho described the Manchester United performance in front of goal and in defence as they missed some glorious chances before the Leicester City equaliser deep into injury time. The manager was not impressed at dropping two points considering how much Manchester United dominated the ninety minutes, but now he has to pick up the players for consecutive games at Old Trafford.

Manchester United have been strong at the Theatre of Dreams in the 2017/18 season and I think they can bounce back from a poor result. They certainly look to be getting to Burnley at a good time with their visitors missing key defensive performers in what has been the foundation for their successes so far this season.

Stephen Ward and James Tarkowski missed the game on Saturday against Tottenham Hotspur and Burnley really did not look right defensively. The 0-3 loss could have come by a wider margin, although Burnley may be able to set up even more defensively away from home than they perhaps would like to at Turf Moor.

That could see Burnley make life difficult for a Manchester United team that potentially are feeling sorry for themselves, but I do think the home side will create chances in this one. Playing at Old Trafford has been a pleasant experience for the players this season and Manchester United will feel a similar level to the one they produced at the King Power Stadium will be enough to win this game.

I respect the fact that Burnley could make this difficult as they have for other top six clubs away from home this season.

But this might be a good time for Manchester United to face them and I will back Mourinho to find the right formula to see United win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Watford v Leicester City Pick: You have to think that Marco Silva will help Watford turn around their form sooner rather than later, but the fans may have to be patient. With injuries and suspensions decimating the squad, Watford are struggling and I think they are going to have a difficult time dealing with Leicester City.

The run of 4 straight losses has to come to an end soon, but Leicester City have found a formula for playing away from home and I think that shows up here.

Leicester City have scored at least three goals in wins at Newcastle United and Southampton and they have a little more confidence than Watford which could make the difference in this fixture.

It certainly doesn't look right to have Leicester City as the underdog in this fixture and backing them with a start on the Asian Handicap returns a winner as long as they don't lose this game. On current form I would expect Leicester City to at least earn a draw against a Watford team who conceded four times in a 1-4 loss to Huddersfield Town last time out at Vicarage Road.

Defensively it has been a struggle for Watford for much of the season and I expect Leicester City to expose those vulnerabilities as they force a result.


West Brom v Everton Pick: This is a set of prices that jumped off the screen when I was looking through the Premier League games for the Boxing Day fixtures. I am not sure what West Brom have done to be given the tag of favourites in this one against an improving Everton team and that makes the underdog worth backing on the Asian Handicap.

Sam Allardyce has made Everton much tougher to beat and defensively they have improved considerably already. With the problems West Brom are having in front of goal, it is hard to see how The Baggies can cause Everton enough problems to win the game, especially as there have been one or two issues defensively in recent games.

That should give Everton a chance to at least score one goal which should be enough to avoid defeat and potentially enough to win the game. Everton have a very good recent record at The Hawthorns which makes them a more appealing prospect to back on Boxing Day, and getting a start seems generous.

It will need an Everton win for a full pay out, but returns a winner as long as Everton earn any kind of result here. They certainly look good enough to do that considering the recent form of the two teams and this is the kind of game where Allardyce will look to make sure his Everton team don't lose and keep pulling away from the bottom three.

Wayne Rooney should be back to give Everton a bit more of a threat going forward and I like them here.


Liverpool v Swansea City Pick: Jurgen Klopp has cut something of a frustrated figure in recent games as Liverpool have perhaps not finished games as well as he would have liked. This is a team who have dropped a number of points from winning positions against Everton and Arsenal which has irritated the manager who has then been testy with the media.

Klopp's Liverpool are still in the top four though and they have a couple of important games at Anfield to come in the days ahead. They certainly look good enough to get back to winning ways in the League at home having drawn 3 in a row at Anfield, but Liverpool have to stop giving away as many goals as they have been.

Mistakes have been hard to erase, but Liverpool have been better defensively when they have played at home. That should show up against a Swansea City team who needed something special to unlock Crystal Palace last time out and who have been goal-shy all season.

It is a big reason Swansea City are at the bottom of the Premier League table and they do look like they are missing something in the final third. The upcoming transfer window will be important for Swansea City to resolve that, but I expect that to be an issue for them on Boxing Day.

With the attacking talent Liverpool have, I think it is hard to see them failing to score in this one and ultimately that should be enough to secure the three points. The Handicaps look wide enough to ignore when you do think of the recent Liverpool failures to win games, but I do believe they get back to winning ways on Boxing Day.

Backing Liverpool to win with a clean sheet looks the way to go here and can be found at decent enough prices.


Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: You have to think that Manchester City are going to eventually hit a poor run of form, but at the moment they look some way away from that happening. Perhaps the late wins over Huddersfield Town and Southampton a few weeks ago are as bad as it will get for Manchester City in the Premier League as they have continued to wear down opponents with their passing and movement too much for teams to handle.

This is a tougher test than the layers may think though as Newcastle United earned a confidence boosting win over West Ham United on Saturday. In saying that, Newcastle United have lost 4 straight games at home and so the layers are not giving anything away on the Manchester City price to win here.

I do anticipate Manchester City will find a way to put another three points on the board with the way they are performing. With the way the schedule has worked out, Pep Guardiola doesn't have to make wide rotation changes and Manchester City look to have the talent to prove to be the difference makers in this one.

However Manchester City haven't had it all their own way in recent away games and that is the angle I am going to play in this one. While they have been winning games, I think Manchester City are facing a Newcastle United team who will be happy to defend in numbers and so it could be a difficult time breaking them down.

I like Manchester City to win a game where there are fewer than four goals scored and that would have been a winner in 3 consecutive Manchester City away Premier League games before their 0-4 win at Swansea City. Newcastle United have conceded three times in 2 of their last 4 at home which is a concern, but they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 at St James' Park.

Manchester City look a short price to win with a clean sheet, but the bigger price of them winning a game in which less than four goals are scored is more appealing. There is every chance Manchester City blow away Newcastle United as they have done so many, but they've not been completely dominant in recent away games and they could settle for another narrow win to keep the points churning out.

Only 1 Newcastle United home game has seen more than three goals shared out this season and so backing Manchester City to win a 'low scoring' game is the call at odds against.


Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: This is another live offering from the Premier League this week in a busy festive period and I have to say that I am surprised Arsenal are as short a price to win as they are. As much quality as Arsenal clearly have in the squad, this is a team who have not played as well away from home as they have at the Emirates Stadium and that does not seem to be factored into the price.

In recent weeks Arsenal have needed a controversial penalty to win at Burnley, another late goal to earn a draw at Southampton and also drawn at West Ham United. That is not a great set of results and now they have to face a Crystal Palace team who have been playing very well of late.

You do have to put that into perspective though as Crystal Palace have not faced the best teams in the Premier League in recent weeks. They have beaten Chelsea at home though and Crystal Palace are a side who create chances and score goals at Selhurst Park with at least two goals scored in each of their last 6 home Premier League games.

Defensively you can get at Crystal Palace here though and the layers aren't offering great prices on there being at least three goals in this one.

However my lean was already towards backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap considering their recent form at home. The win over Chelsea shows they are capable of beating a top team here, while Arsenal have not played as well away from home and needed some luck to earn positive results.

A lack of goals on their travels has to be a concern for Arsenal and I think it is tough to expect them to win this game if Crystal Palace score twice at home again.

And with the start being given to Crystal Palace, only a defeat by two or more goals will mean a full loss, while a defeat by one goal will at least return half the stake. I actually think Crystal Palace can get a result in this one and they are a big price with the start on the Asian Handicap as far as I am concerned.

Arsenal on their day can be near unplayable, but the prices here look short considering they have won just 2 of 9 away Premier League games. The Gunners have lost at Stoke City and drawn at both Southampton and West Ham United and I think Crystal Palace are playing better than those sides to think they can at least do the same.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Crystal Palace + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Boxing Day Football Picks 2016 (December 26-28)

The majority of the next round of domestic football matches will be played on Boxing Day, but the Premier League has shifted a couple of live games across Tuesday and Wednesday too. The Championship has added a couple of live games on the Tuesday.

We then will go into the final games of the 2016 calendar year later in the week as the football comes thick and fast after a 'Winter Break' of a week since the last games were played.


Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The first game up in the Premier League on Boxing Day comes from Vicarage Road and Crystal Palace will have a new face in the dugout to help them change their fortunes.

It was no surprise that Alan Pardew was let go as manager after struggling throughout the 2016 calendar year, while the arrival of Sam Allardyce will come with some controversy. His ending as England manager would be the source for that, but Allardyce is known for keeping teams well established in the Premier League and looks a good fit for Crystal Palace.

It will take time for him to get his ideas across and I am not sure he has that ahead of this Boxing Day game at Watford. The defensive problems will need to be resolved in the coming weeks, but this game might come too early and backing at least three goals to be scored between these teams looks a big price.

Crystal Palace have conceded at least three times in their last 4 away games and Watford have been better going forward at home which suggests they can expose those vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Watford have had just a single clean sheet at home all season and Crystal Palace have scored at least twice in their last 3 away games.

Games between these clubs have seen 5 of the last 7 finish with at least three goals and I will back that to happen in the opening game in the Premier League on Boxing Day.


Arsenal v West Brom Pick: There have been some excuses made in the last couple of Premier League losses for Arsenal, but they should apportion some of the blame to themselves for not putting their foot down when having Everton and Manchester City under the cosh. Failing to get any points from those couple of League games despite leading 0-1 is on Arsenal and the title challenge is already facing some difficulties.

The side have a chance to at least head into the 2017 calendar year with some momentum as they play their final game in 2016 at The Emirates Stadium. Arsenal won't take West Brom lightly having seen how well the latter played at Stamford Bridge when they faced Chelsea, but Tony Pulis sides tend to struggle here.

A problem they have is sitting back and allowing Arsenal to dictate the play which suits the home team fine. Letting Arsenal have the play gives them the opportunity to record a decent win here and 4 of their last 5 home wins against West Brom have come by a couple of goals.

Arsenal have beaten Bournemouth and Stoke City by a couple of goals in their last 2 Premier League games here and I like the home team to win by at least two goals at odds against.


Leicester City v Everton Pick: This is a big Premier League game for both Leicester City and Everton who are hoping they can start building some positive momentum to take into the 2017 calendar year.

The signs are pointing to an improvement in the Leicester City performances, while they have been much better at home which should inspire some confidence even without Jamie Vardy. That can be coupled with Everton's away struggles and Leicester City could be a favourite to win this one.

However they are missing two of their first choice back four through suspensions and Everton have shown they can score goals away from home. That should help them play a part in this one and 6 of the last 7 fixtures between these clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out.

At odds against, I will back that number to be reached again with both teams playing their part in this one and the edge likely to be given to the home team.


Manchester United v Sunderland Pick: The big story is going to be David Moyes returning to Old Trafford, but I hope the majority of fans don't bother booing someone who was simply out of his depth when managing the club. I don't believe in booing former players or managers, even if some idiots believe booing a current player is the right way to go about things.

On the pitch Manchester United look to have got all of their players available for selection in this one aside from Luke Shaw and they are in better shape than Sunderland. The away squad has been decimated by injuries, especially in midfield, and that should mean Manchester United have the majority of control and create the most chances in this one.

With Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the form he has been in, Manchester United have been threatening to hand out a big victory over someone and I think this could be the game. Sunderland have lost comfortably at Liverpool and Swansea City in their last couple of games, and Manchester United have been playing well enough to make it another solid away loss for The Black Cats.

It feels like this could be a long day for David Moyes and his team and an early goal should open things up for Manchester United. I will back the home team to win by at least two goals and feel they can go even further in what would be the second most comfortable win at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season.


Hull City v Manchester City Pick: There is a big transfer window coming up for Hull City who are trying desperately to extend their stay in the Premier League and need to bring in some new faces. Going into Christmas Day bottom of the Premier League has proved to be a death knell for some many clubs over the years, but Hull City can at least say they are still in touch with the teams above them.

Anything they can get out of this game will be seen as a bonus as Manchester City head to the North East as big favourites to win the last live Premier League game on Boxing Day. The win over Arsenal would have boosted the Manchester City confidence although their last away game was a 4-2 loss at Leicester City.

I am not sure Hull City have the attacking threat to hurt this Manchester City team like Leicester City had and I think it is going to be tough for the home team to stay with them if Manchester City produce the same level as they did in the second half against Arsenal.

The last 2 visits to The KC Stadium have ended in wins by at least two goals each time for Manchester City and I think the away team can do that again.

Hull City have lost by that margin to Arsenal and Chelsea in the League this season and half of Manchester City's 6 away Premier League wins have been by at least two goals. At just under odds against, I will back Manchester City to win by a couple of goals here.


Aston Villa v Burton Albion Pick: The form of Aston Villa and Burton Albion at home and away respectively is pointing towards the former Premier League club to get the better of a team that were two Divisions below them last season.

Steve Bruce has been inspiring his team to wins at Villa Park and the confidence looks to have been restored to the side who have scored plenty of late goals for wins in recent games. Now they face a Burton Albion team who have conceded too many goals on their travels and who have lost 4 of their last 5 away games while conceding at least two goals in each of those losses.

Aston Villa haven't been free-scoring but they have been defensively sound which has helped them and I will back them to win this League game and keep the chase going for a top six finish.


Barnsley v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Barnsley and Blackburn Rovers have been involved in some high-scoring games of late as both have looked decent going forward, but struggling at the back.

The last 5 fixtures between these clubs have also produced at least three goals, while Barnsley head into this one having seen 7 of their 11 home games in the League finish with at least three goals shared out.

Goals have been flowing in the last 3 Blackburn Rovers games which have all ended 3-2 and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Newcastle United v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: There is very little doubt that Newcastle United have the best squad in the Championship but the suspension of Jonjo Shelvey will hurt them. I still think they are likely to be too good for Sheffield Wednesday who have not been as strong on their travels as they have been at Hillsborough and I think that shows up in this live game.

Playing at St James' Park has been good for Newcastle United for the most part, although they have produced a couple of terrible results over the course of the season. However they have goals in the side and I think it will be tough for Sheffield Wednesday to match that in this game.

It will be close but Newcastle United can have enough of an edge to come through with the three points and I will back them to earn those.


Brighton v Queens Park Rangers Pick: There has to be a real fear for Queens Park Rangers that they are slipping back towards the third tier of English Football having recently been playing in the Premier League. Ian Holloway was supposed to arrest the slide, but his time in charge has seen Queens Park Rangers slip to 5 consecutive losses.

That doesn't bode well for them in their visit to Brighton who have been very strong at home all season and playing with the confidence that Queens Park Rangers are lacking.

Brighton have won 3 in a row against Queens Park Rangers here and I would be surprised if they don't extend that sequence. A lack of goals for Queens Park Rangers has to be a big concern and I think Brighton are playing well enough to have a fairly comfortable day in the office.

The home side have won a fair few games by at least a couple of goals at home and I will back them to do that here at odds against.


Derby County v Birmingham City Pick: The sacking of Gary Rowett is going to be a big moment in Birmingham City's season and their finish is going to be determined by this moment. If they end up outside of the Play Offs, the Birmingham City owners will be criticised for sacking Rowett, but earning promotion to the Premier League will give them full backing for this decision.

It will take time for Gianfranco Zola's methods to take hold for Birmingham City and his January recruitments are going to be very important to the success or failure of the second half of the season.

This is a tough place to visit for Birmingham City too and The Blues are not blessed with a lot of goals. That is a concern when you think Derby County have 6 clean sheets in a row at home and I do think the home team will find a goal or two to lead them to the victory.

Steve McClaren has improved the fortunes of The Rams and I think he can guide them to another important win over this festive period as they chase a Play Off spot at the least.

MY PICKS: Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aston Villa @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Barnsley-Blackburn Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.70 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Derby County @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)

December Update: 27-29, - 4.95 Units (107 Units Staked, - 4.63% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 142-145-8, + 10.70 Units (555 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (26th December)

The Boxing Day fixtures start an eight day period when the majority of the top English teams will play three times as the squads are tested to the fullest.

At the end of that we will see the January transfer window opened as teams try to hold onto what they have while others strengthen for the big push towards the end of the season.

Let's see how things pan out by the end of the next week as some big games are played at the top and bottom of the Premier League before teams can begin to address their issues.


Stoke City v Manchester United Pick: It was an intriguing week at Old Trafford as rumours began to flow that Louis Van Gaal wasn't too far from the sack, but the Dutchman will take charge for the trip to Stoke City on Boxing Day. However I am not sure Van Gaal can survive another defeat and he could have asked for a much better couple of days than facing a trip to Stoke City and a home game with Chelsea.

There is no disguising the poor form Manchester United have been in as they look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat. Injuries haven't helped Van Gaal, but the defensive strength they have shown has also seemed to have vanished as Manchester United have conceded at least two goals in their last three games.

The lack of goals that Manchester United have produced all season makes that a tally too difficult to overcome and it is now 6 games without a win for the club. Manchester United have only scored more than one goal in 2 of their last 13 games in all competitions and this is going to be a huge test for them to see if the players are still behind the manager.

Stoke City were beaten 1-2 by Crystal Palace here last weekend, but that game could easily have gone the other way while the side have beaten Chelsea and Manchester City in two previous home games in the Premier League. There is plenty of attacking talent that can give Manchester United's defence another problem and I think the home team are a huge price to win this game.

I seriously hope I am wrong, but Manchester United have won just 1 of their last 4 Premier League games at The Brittania Stadium. They lost here two seasons ago under David Moyes and were behind last season before earning a 1-1 draw.

I am just not sure this current group of players is completely behind Van Gaal and conceding the first goal to Stoke City might see the team produce a performance similar to the one that ended David Moyes' reign at Everton. At the price, you'd be foolish to ignore the home win in my opinion even if my heart is really hoping Manchester United can turn things around.


Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: There aren't many teams that have a better three game stretch than Bournemouth who have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United and West Brom to move out of the bottom three. It is no surprise they are favoured to make it four in a row against Crystal Palace at home this Boxing Day, but I am more interested in the away underdog.

That is because Crystal Palace continue to be very effective away from home as they showed in a 1-2 win at Stoke City last weekend. Of course Crystal Palace will give teams a chance to get on the front foot, one that Bournemouth will take advantage of, but that opens up the counter attack where Alan Pardew's men are most effective.

And for all the success Bournemouth have had of late, they would have lost 3 in a row at home prior to the win over Manchester United if not somehow coming back from two goals down against Everton. This is a Crystal Palace side that has won 5 of 9 away games in the Premier League this season too and I really think they are worth a small interest to come out with the three points on Boxing Day.

Crystal Palace have rarely failed to find the net away from home and I do think Bournemouth have perhaps been over-rated by some positive results. I simply don't think they are as good as the results they have produced and I like the away team for a small interest.


Chelsea v Watford Pick: There looked to be a lot more freedom in the Chelsea performance last weekend as they brushed aside Sunderland 3-1 at home, although I have no doubt they were helped by the team they were facing. However you can't ignore the fact that the players had seemingly had enough of Jose Mourinho and I can really see the side going on a bit of a run of successes.

That isn't to say it will be anything but a tough test against Watford who have proven they are more than capable of gelling a squad of players at the Premier League level. There is pace in the forward areas that makes them dangerous and Watford won't be intimidated by heading to Stamford Bridge having won 4 Premier League games in a row.

However, the game is at Stamford Bridge and I think that makes a big difference.

Guus Hiddink is clearly a popular figure for those Chelsea players left here from his last spell as interim manager and I do think he will get the team playing for him. Chelsea have too much talent to be left near the bottom of the table and I have already said I believe they will put a bit of a run together to spark a real move up the League table.

I am expecting Chelsea to use their talented attacking footballers to find a way past Watford on Boxing Day and I like them to win by a couple of goals.


Manchester City v Sunderland Pick: I think the biggest disappointment of the 2-1 loss to Arsenal will be the way Manchester City defended at key times of the match. The goal just seconds before half time that was conceded was a killer blow for Manchester City and I am expecting a response from the players.

The likes of David Silva and Sergio Aguero are getting back to fitness and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those players is rested or put on limited minutes on Saturday.

However, Manchester City have enough quality to think they can beat Sunderland at home especially with the way the latter have defended on their travels. Sunderland are conceding far too many goals and the layers have appreciated that by asking Manchester City to cover a big spread to earn the win.

Instead I think there is a good reason to back Manchester City to score at least three goals on Saturday. That is a number they have reached in 6 of their last 10 games at The Etihad Stadium in all competitions and one that Sunderland have conceded in 4 of their last 6 away games.

That includes at Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool and Manchester City have a team that can match those which is what I am expecting on Boxing Day.


Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City Pick: Last weekend was a stunning result for Norwich City in going to Manchester United and winning the game deservedly despite some poor recent away results. That might be a big reason why they are expected to give Tottenham Hotspur something to think about this weekend, but I can't help think Manchester United are not in as strong form as Spurs and I expect a much different result.

That isn't to say Tottenham Hotspur are anything but inconsistent as shown with a win at Southampton just a week after losing here to Newcastle United. That defeat does go against recent trends though as Tottenham Hotspur had won 4 of their last 5 home games before the loss to Newcastle and I think they can bounce back at White Hart Lane.

There has been a week of preparation for this game so tiredness shouldn't be a factor and I think Spurs are the better team.

For all the credit that Norwich City deserve having won at Old Trafford, this is a team that were fortunate in losing by single goal margins at Manchester City and Chelsea. Both of those teams had enough chances to win a couple of games and I think Tottenham Hotspur will take advantage of Alex Neil perhaps focusing on the home game with Aston Villa just two days later which is arguably the more important game.

Norwich City will expect to win that one rather than this game and I think Spurs win this by a couple of goals.


Newcastle United v Everton Pick: The second live game on Boxing Day comes from St James' Park and I think this has the potential of being a pretty entertaining game between two teams that have looked positive going forward. Neither has shown enough defensively to think they are going to gain too many clean sheets of late and I think the fans and the viewers could have an enjoyable game to watch.

Picking a winner is much more difficult as both teams can make a good case of doing that. The draws in recent Everton games would put me off backing them as the favourite here, but Newcastle United have had two good wins before the draw with Aston Villa, a game they had enough chances to win.

The one scoreline that I perhaps fear the most in this game is 1-1 which looks a real player, but I think both managers are desperate for the three points. It looks like being a game that will see both Newcastle United and Everton attacking for the points that is valuable for them to achieve their goals and picking up momentum at the start of a busy period.

As long as there isn't a deluge of rain like what we saw last weekend here, I think there is every chance we can see at least three goals shared between these teams.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League has been an inconsistent Division throughout the 2015/16 season and that has made things difficult to predict as times. From week to week we have seen teams produce some very good stuff and then followed that with some complete rubbish or vice versa.

Therefore I do have this gut feeling that Southampton may just surprise Arsenal this weekend especially as the latter are coming in off the high of beating Manchester City. However, I have to use the eye test and say Arsenal should not be odds against to win here on current form and for that reason The Gunners have to be backed to win and potentially move to the top of the table ahead of the end of the calendar year.

Arsenal have had a couple of impressive away wins behind them and will be expected to match North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur who won at St Mary's last weekend. That 0-2 win over Southampton has not impressed Ronald Koeman who believes his team are making too many individual mistakes at the moment which are costing them a chance to reverse recent form.

And recent form hasn't been good for Southampton who have also lost 3 of their last 4 games at home in all competitions which includes a thumping from Liverpool in the Capital One Cup. That has definitely knocked some confidence compared with Arsenal who are flying at the moment and so I am surprised they are odds against to win this Premier League game.

It hasn't been a great venue for Arsenal to visit in recent years, but I think they can reverse that on Boxing Day and have to be backed at the prices on offer.

MY PICKS: Stoke City @ 3.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace @ 3.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 (2 Units)
Manchester City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

December Update: 12-19, - 8.52 Units (52 Units Staked, - 16.38% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)

September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)