College Football Bowl Picks Part One 2023 (December 16-26)

There was plenty of controversy attached to the final four teams selected to make the PlayOffs as the Committee decided to ignore a Power 5 Conference Champion that had put together an unbeaten season.

The Florida State Seminoles were sickened by that turn of events with the suggestion the PlayOff Committee chose to move past them on account of how they BELIEVE the Seminoles would perform rather than giving them a chance.

In previous years they have picked schools with injuries to Quarter Backs, but this time there were enough options that the Committee felt justified in picking unbeaten Michigan and Washington and adding the SEC and Big 12 Champions too. All of this will be a moot point at the end of next season with an expanded PlayOff format, but you can expect to hear much more about the final four selected if we do not get two very competitive Semi Final games.

It will also be interesting to see how Florida State get on when they face the Georgia Bulldogs, another team disappointed to be left out. The Bulldogs have even had a State Senator calling for that Bowl Game to be considered part of the College Football PlayOff, but we are where we are in 2023.

The Bowl Games are going be split in two threads as usual and the College Football PlayOff Picks will be in the second thread that covers the back half of Bowl season.

Picks will be added to this thread between now and Boxing Day.

Ohio Bobcats vs Georgia Southern Eagles Pick: They may feel a touch fortunate to have earned a Bowl opportunity after the Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) produced a 0.500 season. They earned their sixth win relatively quickly, but the Eagles ended the regular season with four losses in a row and Georgia Southern were beaten in their Bowl Game last year.

They are facing the Ohio Bobcats (9-3) who only just missed out on playing in the MAC Championship Game having finished behind the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks within their Division.

The opening weekend of Bowl Games is not always an ideal position for teams with the limited preparation time they can put together on the field. That can have an impact on teams, while the Transfer Portal has opened and some teams will have key players leaving schools as they look ahead to the next step in their career.

It is going to have an impact on the Ohio State Bobcats and has been the main reason they opened as favourites, but go into the Bowl Game as the underdog. Kurtis Rourke has had a strong career as the Bobcats Quarter Back and he displayed dual-threat ability out of the position, but he has entered the Transfer Portal and that mean Parker Navarro is going to have start this Bowl Game.

He has had very limited experience on the field in 2023 and Navarro will not have an easy match up in this Bowl Game, although it is important to know that he can lean on the Ohio Defensive unit and so avoiding mistakes is important. The expectation is that Parker Navarro will be able to use his legs as much as his arm and that should see Ohio move the ball, although they will lack some consistency.

It has been something that the Bobcats have dealt with all season so anything that Parker Navarro can give the team will be making sure that he does not lose this Bowl Game.

Instead it could be the Bobcats Defensive unit that is able to step up and keep this game competitive against a Georgia Southern team that will be lacking some confidence.

Four losses in a row will do that and the Eagles may struggle to establish the run against this Ohio Defensive Line which has clamped down on the run all season.

They will lean on Davis Brin at Quarter Back after he transferred to the Eagles after spending four years with Tulsa and he has become a leader for Georgia Southern. He has thrown for over 3400 yards this season and 22 Touchdown passes, although Brin's criticism is that he has made too many mistakes.

He will earn his numbers in this Bowl Game, but throwing out of third and long situations will make it difficult for Davis Brin to avoid those mistakes. The Quarter Back will be facing a Ohio Secondary that have made plenty of big plays in the passing game, while the Bobcats will put some pressure on Brin when he steps back to throw out of obvious passing situations.

Losing the starting Quarter Back is blow, but the Ohio Bobcats are 25-13 against the spread as the underdog over the last several seasons. Having more than a Field Goal in their favour in this Bowl Game looks the right play to get Bowl Season underway.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs New Mexico State Aggies Pick: A 10-3 record was good enough to take the New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) into the Conference-USA Championship Game, but an injury to Quarter Back Diego Pavia contributed to the defeat against the Liberty Flames.

That loss ended a run of eight wins in a row and that includes the Aggies winning on the road at SEC Auburn Tigers.

Diego Pavia looks like he will be able to suit up for this Isleta New Mexico Bowl against the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) who were never as competitive as they would have liked in the Mountain West Conference. Three losses in a row to end the regular season meant the Bulldogs finished in the middle of the pack, although it was overall another good season for Fresno State with eight wins on the board.

The only negative may be that they were not able to secure at least one more win that would have given them a shot at winning double digit games when taking part in the Bowl Game.

Head Coach Jeff Tedford has left his role as he deals with health issues and there is some question about motivation for a team that may have been targeting a 'better' Bowl Game. The Bulldogs do have an opportunity to make some strong Offensive plays behind Quarter Back Mikey Keene who has over 2500 passing yards with 21 Touchdowns thrown.

Mikey Keene should be given some support from the running game against this Aggies Defensive Line, while there are one or two holes in the Secondary that can be exploited. Avoiding Interceptions will be important, but Keene should have a decent outing and that will give New Mexico State something to think about.

The pressure may be on the Bulldogs to keep up on the scoreboard with the expectation Diego Pavia is going to be on the field to lead the Aggies at Quarter Back.

As the season as wore on, Fresno State have found it more and more difficult to play the run and that is going to be a massive problem against this New Mexico State Offensive unit. Head Coach Jerry Kill has spoken of the toughness of his Quarter Back and that should mean Diego Pavia continues to offer a dual-threat out of the position, which can only aid the Aggies when it comes to establishing the run.

The expectation is that the Aggies will be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and that should help Diego Pavia in running play-action and attacking this Secondary. The Fresno State Secondary numbers have not been bad during the three game losing run, but that may have plenty to do with the fact they have not been able to slow the ground game rather than any real improvement in level of play compared to what we have seen overall.

The Bowl Game is going to feel like a home one for the Aggies, which should help too, and they have thrived as a favourite by going 12-3 against the spread in the last fifteen times they have been in that spot. Controlling the clock and perhaps picking up a turnover or two should give New Mexico State the edge in this Bowl Game and they can win and cover.

Boise State Broncos vs UCLA Bruins Pick: Andy Avalos was fired as Head Coach of the Boise State Broncos (8-5) the day after the team had moved back to 5-5. Spencer Danielson took over as Interim Head Coach, but the Interim tag was removed after the team won three more games in a row and won the Mountain West Conference Championship.

The removal of the previous Head Coach will lead to players leaving and the Broncos are going to be without Taylen Green, the starting Quarter Back who will be playing with Arkansas next season. He can be a dual-threat at the position, but Green has not been able to match his numbers from 2022 and the Quarter Back had 11 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions this year compared with 14 and 6 last season.

Boise State will likely be starting CJ Tiller at Quarter Back and this feels a big spot to throw in a Freshman who has not thrown a single pass in his College Football career. There are big hopes for Tiller in Boise State, but he will be facing a UCLA Bruins (7-5) Defensive unit that was key in getting the team into a Bowl Game.

The problem for CJ Tiller and the Broncos Offense is that they do not match up that well with the Bruins on this side of the ball. Having an experienced Quarter Back would perhaps help, although Boise State may be hoping the lack of tape around Tiller may just surprise the Bruins.

While the Boise State Broncos will be trying to establish the run, they are going to be running into a tough Bruins Defensive Line, albeit one missing Laiatu Latu who has begun to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft. The Broncos have been strong at piling up the yards on the ground in their four game winning run, but UCLA have to be expected to sell out to defend up front and see if the inexperienced Tiller can beat them through the air.

CJ Tiller should be well protected and there are issues in the Bruins Secondary, but the Quarter Back may take a bit more time to allow routes to develop. That will see the pressure counting down on Tiller and you have to believe he will make one or two mistakes as he begins his College career.

They can make up for this one the other side of the ball where the Broncos Defensive unit have stood tall on their way to winning the Mountain West Conference.

There has to be a confidence that the Broncos can keep their team competitive against the UCLA Bruins who lost three of their last four games to end the regular season. Much like Boise State, UCLA have had issues at Quarter Back and Dante Moore has entered the Transfer Portal, which means Ethan Garbers will likely be given the start.

He does have more experience than CJ Tiller, but Ethan Garbers could also be throwing from third and long spots with the Broncos Defensive Line likely to clamp down on the run. Ethan Garbers will then be throwing into a Boise State Secondary that has played well down the stretch, while the Broncos pass rush is likely going to create some havoc in this game.

The Broncos are a very strong underdog to back in recent years and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games when given points.

With the Bruins at 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the favourite, taking the points looks the play in this LA Bowl Game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs California Golden Bears Pick: The Big 12 Conference will have a different feel in 2024 without the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners who are moving onto the SEC. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) tried to play spoiler for the Longhorns in the final regular season game, but were blown out on the road and finished the season at 0.500 with one more opportunity to put a winning record on the board.

Next season could be one in which the Red Raiders target the very top of the Big 12 Conference and earning a spot in the expanded College Football PlayOff. Having Tahj Brooks agreeing to come back at Running Back is very important for the Red Raiders and they are the favourites in this Bowl Game when facing the California Golden Bears (6-6) who are also trying to win one more game to end the year with a winning record of their own.

It has been a bit of a streaky season for the Golden Bears who had lost four in a row and looked they were going to miss out on the Bowl Season, but California rallied to win three games in a row, including an upset of the UCLA Bruins in the final regular season game.

Fernando Mendoza has to be given a lot of credit for the way he has performed at Quarter Back in his first season with the team and he did end up with almost 1500 passing yards and 14 Touchdowns thrown. That's a good return from seven games and the three game winning run will certainly give Mendoza further confidence as he prepares to play his first Bowl Game.

Mistakes have been made, which cannot be a surprise considering the relative inexperience of the Quarter Back, but Mendoza may be able to lean on Jaydn Ott at Running Back to aid him in his bid to keep the chains moving. There are big ambitions held by Ott who had a strong year running the ball in 2023 and he should be able to have success against this Texas Tech Defensive Line that looked worn down towards the end of the regular season.

Keeping the team in third and manageable should make life that much more comfortable for Fernando Mendoza.

The Red Raiders will be leaning on their own big name Running Back Tahj Brooks as they look to end the season on a high after seeing the three game winning run snapped by the Texas Longhorns. It might be tougher for Brooks considering how well the California Defensive Line were performing at the end of the regular season and that may make things more difficult for Behren Morton at Quarter Back.

It has not been an eye-catching season from Behren Morton, but he has played well enough and the Quarter Back is going to be throwing against a Golden Bears Secondary that has had some holes. However, the Transfer Portal may mean Morton is without some of the key Receivers that the Red Raiders would have used through much of the season and so you do have to question whether they can have the kind of success that may have been expected.

The Quarter Back may also find himself under some pass rush pressure, which could lead to the mistakes and turnovers that may give the Golden Bears the edge.

Earning a winning season will be a motivation for both of these teams, but California seem to be quite convinced about their chances of earning the upset.

The Golden Bears are 30-16 against the spread in their last forty-six in that spot and being back in a Bowl Game for the first time in four years is clearly going to be inspiring California for a full effort.

Taking the points with the underdog in the Independence Bow looks to be the right side of this one.

Tuesday 19th December

Marshall Thundering Herd vs UTSA Roadrunners Pick: A win in their final regular season game has just about gotten the Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) over the line to become Bowl eligible. However, it has been far from an ideal build up for this Bowl Game and they are a significant underdog when facing the UTSA Roadrunners (8-4).

The Roadrunners finished with a 7-1 record in the American Athletic Conference and that mean narrowly missing out on a place in the Championship Game.

No matter, UTSA comfortably earned Bowl eligibility and the players will be looking to write their names into school history by becoming the first to win a Bowl Game.

They will have to respect the fact that the Thundering Herd's Defensive Line were playing at a solid level to close out the regular season, although UTSA will also be confident in what their own Offensive Line brings to the field. That battle at the line of scrimmage will be key, if only to ensure Frank Harris is given time at the Quarter Back position to make his plays down the field.

It will be an emotional evening for Frank Harris and his top Receiving option, Joshua Cephus, as the senior players call time on their College career. These two should be able to produce a big game for the Roadrunners against a struggling Marshall Secondary and that will certainly give UTSA confidence that they can complete what has been a successful time for the school.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but UTSA might be catching Marshall at a good time with the Thundering Herd losing their starting Quarter Back to the Transfer Portal. Cam Fancher had 11 Touchdown passes with 11 Interceptions, but his decision to move on has been met with some controversy, and mainly out of Head Coach Charles Huff's comments.

Charles Huff said Fancher has been 'miserable' and received plenty of pushback for that.

He will be hoping that Cole Pennington can help change the headlines- the son of Chad Pennington threw 6 Interceptions when playing relief of the starting Quarter Back and he has yet to throw a Touchdown pass, which means it could be a tough day for the Thundering Herd when it comes to moving the chains.

They would love to lean on a running game and hope Rasheen Ali can get something going on the ground, but it has not been easy to do that against this UTSA Defensive Line. Add in the fact they are not likely to give Cole Pennington that much respect and the Roadrunners may choose to sell out to stop the run and see if the inexperienced Quarter Back can do something special.

Throwing against this Secondary will be challenging for Pennington and Interceptions will likely give UTSA an opportunity to create short fields and, ultimately, pull clear of the Thundering Herd.

Bowl Games can be tough to call, but UTSA can make history with a win and a cover in this one.

Friday 22nd December

UCF Knights vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: A first season in a Power 5 Conference has come with some ups and downs for the UCF Knights (6-6), but they still have an opportunity to put a winning record on the board.

With the Big 12 Conference shaking up next year, the Knights have made it clear that the target in 2024 is putting together a strong season that will end with a place in the expanded PlayOff format.

Building momentum with a Bowl win is the aim as the Knights prepare to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) who lost two of their last three regular season games. Those defeats to the Clemson Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs will not have dented the confidence as the Yellow Jackets who have made themselves Bowl eligible for the first time since 2018.

It should mean they are plenty motivated, and the Yellow Jackets will feel they can do enough Offensively to remain competitive.

Much will depend on the Offensive Line being able to establish the run and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets should be able to do that, even against a Knights Defensive Line that performed pretty well down the stretch. Keeping things moving on the ground and controlling the clock and the rhythm of this Bowl Game, while also keeping Haynes King out of pressurised situatuons.

The Quarter Back will have some success, but throwing against this Knights Secondary has been a tough task for many Quarter Backs this season. It should be a challenge for Haynes King, who has to be aware of the turnover creating ability of this Knights Defensive unit.

While the Knights Defensive Line showed some toughness to clamp down on the run down the stretch, it has been a problem for the Yellow Jackets Defensive Line all season. It is going to be a real surprise if Georgia Tech are able to do much better in this Bowl Game against a UCF Offensive Line that has really enjoyed being able to get into their run blocking, while having a dual-threat Quarter Back makes it that much tougher to slow down UCF.

John Rhys Plumlee admits he is not at full health after dealing with injury through the season, but he should be playing in front of the chains. Enough has been displayed to believe he can make one or two decent plays in the passing game, while Plumlee has looked after the ball much more effectively than Haynes King.

In September 2022, UCF were able to get the better of Georgia Tech and they ended up pulling away for a 17 point win- this one is expected to be closer, but the UCF Knights might have the superior balance Offensively and are likely to be a little more consistent running the ball as they earn a Bowl win and a winning record for the 2023 season.

Saturday 23rd December

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick: Two teams with the same 6-6 record meet in this Bowl Game and there should be plenty of motivation for both the Northern Illinois Huskies and Arkansas State Red Wolves as they try and produce a winning season.

Neither of these schools can really say they have had a lot of success in Bowl Games and that should give the players further motivation.

It is especially the case for the Northern Illinois Huskies who have not won a Bowl Game since knocking off the Red Wolves back in 2011. They have lost seven Bowl Games since that last victory and the Huskies come into this game as the underdog.

They are being given enough points to be considered competitive and the feeling is that the Huskies can make those points count even in a losing effort.

Rocky Lombardi is a veteran College Football Quarter Back and he continues to lead the way for the Northern Illinois Huskies. However, Lombardi's primary role may be making sure he hands the ball to Antario Brown at Running Back and the Huskies will be looking to lean on Brown and the Offensive Line.

Both have been operating very successfully at the end of the regular season and they are facing an Arkansas State Defensive Line which has had some significant difficulties in clamping down on the run. Antario Brown will be looking to keep the Huskies in front of the chains, which should only make things easier for a veteran like Lombardi at Quarter Back.

The key for the underdog is not to force the game to rest on Rocky Lombardi's arm, although there are one or two holes in the Red Wolves Secondary that can be exploited.

Northern Illinois will feel they can move the ball on the ground, but that task may be tougher when the Arkansas State Red Wolves have the ball.

The Huskies ended the regular season with the Defensive Line playing the run about as well as they have this season and they will certainly be looking to force the Red Wolves to become a little one-dimensional with the play-calling.

Arkansas State will be confident in the ability of their young Quarter Back, Jaylen Raynor who has won Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference. However, this could be a tough day to make consistent plays if the team are not able to run the ball as well as they would like, which would leave Jaylen Raynor throwing into a Huskies Secondary that have played well in recent games.

He is clearly a capable Quarter Back and will still have some solid numbers, but the lack of balance could be evident and it may see the Northern Illinois Huskies continue their dominance of the series with Arkansas State.

Taking the points with the underdog looks to be the play in what should be a competitive Bowl Game.

Air Force Falcons vs James Madison Dukes Pick: If they had remained unbeaten, James Madison Dukes (11-1) might have been given the opportunity to impress in a 'bigger' Bowl Game than the Armed Forces Bowl. Regardless, this is the first time the Dukes will be taking part in a Bowl Game and that has to provide plenty of motivation alone, especially as they were not going to eligible at the start of the season due to NCAA rules regarding former FCS schools moving into the FBS.

They are facing the Air Force Falcons (8-4) who were another team looking like they may have been invited into a much more glamorous Bowl Game than this one when they opened the season with eight straight wins. Four losses in a row to end the regular season ended those hopes, although the Falcons will know the importance of playing in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons beat the Baylor Bears in this Bowl last year, but they are the underdog against James Madison.

One of the main reasons for that is that Air Force look like they match up pretty poorly on the Offensive side of the ball with this Dukes Defensive unit.

The Falcons want to run the ball over and over again, and Zac Larrier is asked to manage the game at Quarter Back. The extra preparation time should help James Madison, while the Dukes Defensive Line have been stout up front and been able to clamp down on the run.

At the same time, the Dukes Secondary have not played the pass nearly as well as the Defensive Line have played the run, but Air Force are not built to take advantage and that should give the narrow favourite an opportunity.

James Madison have struggled to run the ball effectively on the other side of the ball and they will be relying on Quarter Back Jordan McCloud to move the chains. He has entered the Transfer Portal, but McCloud is expected to start this Bowl Game as he has yet to tip his hat as to where he will be playing in 2024.

This looks a good chance for Jordan McCloud to sign off as a Dukes player in the right way and he should be able to attack this Air Force Secondary with plenty of confidence.

Pressure around the Quarter Back from the Falcons pass rush and a ball-hawking team that may give up big yards, but who will turn the ball over, makes this a more competitive game. Jordan McCloud will have to be aware of the situations as they develop, but he should have enough success to give the Dukes the edge.

A few of the Dukes players might be leaving in the Transfer Portal, but they would love to sign off with another history making performance. That motivation will be hard to shift and James Madison may to just enough to win this Bowl Game and cover the relatively small number as the favourite.

Northwestern Wildcats vs Utah Utes Pick: Winning records have already been secured for the 2023 season, but winning a Bowl Game would place a neat bow for a number of players that may be departing at the end of the year.

The Utah Utes (8-4) will enter the game as the favourites against the Northwestern Wildcats (7-5).

It had been touch and go whether the Wildcats would be able to produce the kick needed that would take them into Bowl eligibility, but four wins in their last five games helped them not only secure that place, but also ensured a winning season. They will know they are going to be tested on the Offensive side of the ball against this Utah Defensive unit, if only for the poor match up Northwestern have, but the confidence of the finish makes them dangerous.

Running the ball against this Utah Defensive Line will be very difficult, especially as Northwestern have not been able to do that with a lot of consistency anyway. That means it will be up to Quarter Back Ben Bryant to make the plays with his arm, but he has been successful doing that and has guided the Wildcats very well.

He should have more time to make throws down the field and the Utah Secondary were guilty of giving up huge yardage through the air. Ben Bryant has to avoid the Interceptions that have perhaps been a bit of a problem for him, but this Utes team have not been turning the ball over in the air while allowing almost 300 yards per game and it should mean Northwestern have opportunities.

If this was a usual regular season game, Utah would feel they have the balanced Offensive unit that could really make things awkward for the Wildcats.

Quarter Back Bryson Barnes has entered the Transfer Portal, but will play, while other players have decided they are going to join the NFL Draft and will perhaps be looking to focus on that rather than this Bowl Game. Even then, Utah should be able to establish the run to make things a little more comfortable for Barnes, who will have a chance to make big plays into a Secondary that gave up almost 250 passing yards per game as the season wound down.

However, the Wildcats might bend, but they have been aggressive in their coverage and it has led to Interceptions and Barnes might end up being forced into a mistake or two, which can be critical to the outcome of this Bowl Game.

These two teams have had contrasting results in recent Bowl Games- Northwestern have won four in a row, while Utah have lost four in a row. It was the Wildcats who came out on top in December 2018 in the Holiday Bowl against the Utah Utes, while the latter also had an inconsistent conclusion to the regular season.

With players thinking to what is ahead, the underdog Wildcats may be able to make enough plays through the air to keep this one close. Winning the turnover battle will be important, but Northwestern can do that and make sure the points they are being given are made to count.

Tuesday 26th December

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Bowling Green Falcons Pick: The only team that finished the regular season with a losing record and who have been invited into a Bowl Game is the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7). They are not going to apologise for being given this opportunity though and the Golden Gophers will enter the Bowl as the favourite.

They are facing the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) who have already secured a winning season, but who would love to round 2023 off with a Bowl victory.

In recent years, Bowling Green have struggled to do that so there is a big motivation for the players involved as the school looks for a first post-season victory since 2014. Things have been a lot different for the Minnesota Golden Gophers who have won six Bowl Games in a row, including all four under Head Coach PJ Fleck who is now only a couple more appearances away from taking Minnesota to a school record tying of seven Bowl Games.

The Head Coach is one that clearly gets the best out of his players and those additional Bowl practices have certainly paid off.

However, the unexpected Bowl invite has meant a few players are not going to be involved for the Golden Gophers, including starting Quarter Back Athan Kaliakmanis who has entered the Transfer Portal. It has given Cole Kramer an opportunity to finish his College career with a start in a Bowl Game, although the lack of time in competitive action this season will be a slight concern.

This is a level down from the Conference schedule, but the Golden Gophers may still find it challenging Offensively against this Falcons Defensive unit. It all begins up front where the Defensive Line have been playing very well to end the season and clamping down on the run, which is a problem for Minnesota's Offensive Line who have not been opening big holes on the ground this season.

This will mean Cole Kramer is being asked to do a bit more, which in turn may expose some of the lack of experience of playing in the regular season in competitive environments. The Quarter Back will not be able to hold the ball for too long whenever he drops back to throw, while the Bowling Green Secondary have been very good at turning the ball over without giving up huge yards through the air.

Minnesota should still have some success, but they are not expected to blow past Bowling Green and that should make the points being given to the underdog look all the more appealing.

Terion Stewart may have a real chance to make his mark on this Bowl Game with the Running Back attacking a Minnesota Defensive Line that was worn down at the end of the regular season. For most of 2023 it has been tough for the Golden Gophers to contain the run, but they were allowing huge gains to be picked up at the end of the regular season and this may allow Stewart to keep the Falcons in third and manageable spots.

It should make life a bit more comfortable for Connor Bazelak at Quarter Back, although the key will be to ensure he avoids turning the ball over and offering up short fields for the Golden Gophers.

The Minnesota Secondary have decent numbers, but that is also partly down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball right at them and pick up big plays. A lack of a pass rush should mean Bazelak has time time the pocket that has not always been there for him this season and the Falcons can keep this one close.

Bowling Green actually beat Minnesota on the road in September 2021 so they should not be intimidated by the challenge, even if the Golden Gophers have been very impressive in Bowl Games in recent years.

With the points being given to them, the Falcons can make enough Offensive plays to keep this one close, even if they do come up short at the end.

MY PICKS: Ohio Bobcats + 3.5 Points @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

New Mexico State Aggies - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boise State Broncos + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

California Golden Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UTSA Roadrunners - 11.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

UCF Knights - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Northern Illinois Huskies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

James Madison Dukes - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Northwestern Wildcats + 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowling Green Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowl Part One Update: 4-5, - 1.71 Units (9 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

Boxing Day Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (December 26-27)

Let's be honest, this is a time of the year where most of us will be spending time with families so there is only limited time to produce the three threads needed to cover the Premier League fixtures and Fantasy Football plays.

I am going to get into it with the Picks from the Boxing Day round of games below followed by my GW19 team which is not going to have any transfers added to it after I played my Wild Card in GW18 as I had mentioned.


Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: I was largely disappointed with the Tottenham Hotspur performance on Sunday, but the continued defensive errors will be frustrating Jose Mourinho. There is nothing I can say to justify the penalty given away by Spurs in the loss to Chelsea which came in injury time at the end of the first half, but the lack of a real threat in the final third reminded me of the levels produced against Manchester United earlier this month.

It is something Mourinho is going to have to fix if Tottenham Hotspur are going to get closer to the top four, but they have at least played well against the teams lower down the Premier League table. Since the new manager has arrived, Tottenham Hotspur have beaten West Ham United, Bournemouth and Burnley and Spurs have scored plenty of goals in those games.

Losing Heung-Min Son to suspension is a blow to the team, but there is enough quality in the final third to believe they can cover for that in their next three games beginning with this one against Brighton.

I do like what Graham Potter is doing with Brighton and they are a much more pleasing team to watch, although results will ultimately determine whether or not this is a successful season. It does look like Brighton are going to have to avoid the drop, while they did recently win down the road at the Emirates Stadium, but this is a team that has mainly struggled for form away from home.

They do attack teams and that has resulted in a few goals, but Brighton have not defended well and they do offer up chances. I think that will be the case on Boxing Day and Tottenham Hotspur can exploit that in a win as I look for them to bounce back from the loss to Chelsea by seeing off Brighton in a game that I expect features two or more goals.


Aston Villa v Norwich City Pick: After seeing the Aston Villa performance in the 1-3 home loss to Southampton last Saturday I don't think you could reasonably back them with any expectation. That makes them a very short price to win this big fixture, although Norwich City have looked vulnerable away from home for much of the season.

A couple of weeks ago I would have been more comfortable in backing Aston Villa, but that defeat to Southampton coupled with the fact that Norwich City have found positive results at Everton and Leicester City recently makes it a much harder game to read.

Like Saturday I would not be surprised if both teams score and at least three goals are shared out on the day, but those markets are plenty short too.

It could be a fun game for the neutrals to enjoy, but a tense one for two sets of fans hoping for a late Christmas present as they bid to avoid the drop into the Championship. Personally I think there are better options you can back out there.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: The Arsenal trip to Everton was a miserable game of football on the field and the most intriguing aspect of the day was the away fans turning on Arsenal TV, a fan YouTube Channel which irritates me and finally seems to be grating on those who follow this club around the world.

It shows the kind of divide that exists at Arsenal and Mikel Arteta can't be underestimating the tough job in front of him as a rookie manager. Two years ago it was considered that Arteta was not experienced enough to take over at Arsenal, but he has been learning under Pep Guardiola since then and the Spaniard is confident he can get this club turned around.

His first team selection is going to be interesting and there are a number of injury issues and suspensions to deal with.

At least Arsenal secured a clean sheet on Saturday as they have looked like a team who will score goals. The clean sheet will be a boost to the defence and to Arteta and I think they will be able to get the better of their hosts on Boxing Day.

Bournemouth are in miserable form and they are missing some big time players in the squad ahead of this fixture. The 0-1 defeat to Burnley at the Vitality Stadium means Bournemouth have not scored in their last 2 games here, while Bournemouth have lost 6 of their last 7 overall including the last 3 in a row in front of their own fans.

They don't have the best record against Arsenal and you have to think The Gunners will find enough in the final third to secure a vital three points on Boxing Day. It won't come easy and the first goal is going to be huge for both clubs, but I think Arsenal have shown a little more in the final third in creating chances of late and that can see them win at odds against before two big home games against Chelsea and Manchester United.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: In recent weeks we have seen Chelsea earn some big results and fail to follow them up and so that is the challenge for Frank Lampard and his players on Boxing Day when they host Southampton.

The win at Tottenham Hotspur was very deserved for Chelsea, but they have lost 2 of their last 3 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge. Those losses to West Ham United and Bournemouth are not against the best teams in the Premier League and Chelsea have found it difficult when they have not taken the early chances they have created.

It will be encouraging for Southampton who impressively saw off Aston Villa on Saturday and who have scored in 11 away games in a row in all competitions. That includes scoring at Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City (twice) and Arsenal so playing at Stamford Bridge should hold no fear for The Saints who have nothing to lose having moved out of the bottom three.

No one will expect anything from Southampton, and they had lost 4 of 6 on their travels before the win over Aston Villa. With that in mind this feels like a game in which they can play their part, but the defensive problems are likely going to give Chelsea ample chances to still come away with a win.

Chelsea have not had the best recent home record against Southampton with 2 wins from their last 5 at Stamford Bridge against them. That might make some reconsider the very short odds on the home win, but I think Chelsea have been creating chances and should be very confident after winning so well at Tottenham Hotspur.

A home win in a game that features three or more goals looks the outcome of this one.


Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: Having had the weekend off I can make a reasonable case to back West Ham United to win at Selhurst Park, but I don't want to underestimate the home team.

Roy Hodgson's men are lacking goals and they are not defending as well as the run of clean sheets are suggesting. They have conceded in their last 2 Premier League games and Crystal Palace don't look capable of winning games if they do that, but West Ham United have been porous defensively which makes them hard to trust too.

I can see both teams coming in with belief, but it might be a tight game with all three results something you can make a case for. Again there look to be better options out there on Boxing Day through to the late Friday night game and I will look at those instead.


Everton v Burnley Pick: This is an important game for both Burnley and Everton who are coming off League fixtures in which they have earned clean sheets.

Managing the first of two games to be played in three days is challenging for every manager in the League, but it might be a bigger test for Carlo Ancelotti who will want to get a first hand experience of the squad he has inherited at Goodison Park.

The appointment of Ancelotti looks a real coup for Everton who are trying to break into the 'top six club' in the Premier League. A suggestion has been made that Ancelotti will be given serious funds to change the squad, but Everton might not be the most appealing destination for the big names so the Italian's Coaching skills will be tested here.

Everton have played well at home over the last twelve months, although they are in the midst of some poor form here. Scoring goals remains a big problem for the team, but they should have chances against a Burnley team who have not looked completely watertight at the back.

On the other hand Burnley have shown they have a style which can cause problems with two big strikers capable of causing havoc. They were not at their best at Bournemouth, but the weather conditions were pretty terrible and I think Burnley have shown enough in the final third in the last month to believe they can at least score here.

It makes this a hard game to read, but I do think Everton will have a bounce thanks to the excitement of having someone like Carlo Ancelotti taking over as manager. Before the goalless draw with Arsenal, Everton had scored three against Chelsea and two against Leicester City in games here and I think they will play their part in a surprisingly high-scoring game.

Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the selection.


Sheffield United v Watford Pick: The strong win over Manchester United will have just given the Watford squad an injection of confidence to take into the three games to be played across a seven day period.

However Watford can't expect to have things as comfortable as they were at Vicarage Road when they visit Sheffield United who have won 3 in a row in the Premier League.

Sheffield United have proven to be a very good Premier League team with a solid balance between attack and defence and they are now finding the end product to the chances being created. It is a different kind of test when you are expected to win games, and Sheffield United were beaten by Newcastle United in that spot recently, but the victory over Aston Villa suggests Chris Wilder has kept his squad's feet firmly planted on the ground.

As strong as the Watford performance and result was on Sunday, they are a team who will have had one less day to recover and have lost 3 away games in a row while conceding at least twice each time. Defensively there are some major injury concerns and Ben Foster is going to need to have a big game if Watford are able to earn a positive result.

Watford have also struggled for goals and I think there is enough there to back Sheffield United to win this game. It might be closer than some think because The Blades are unlikely to cut through teams constantly and especially not without the clinical finishing that others in the League can offer, but even then I believe the home team create enough to win this game.

They failed at odds on to beat Newcastle United, but I think Sheffield United make up for that on Boxing Day.


Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: It really felt like Manchester United hit rock bottom on Sunday after losing to the club propping up the rest in the Premier League. At this stage of the rebuild Manchester United are going to have setbacks, but the limp performance until it was too late suggests a deeper issue and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is back under the gun.

The return of Paul Pogba was a positive, but Manchester United need to quickly bounce back ahead of two tough looking away games at Burnley and Arsenal. They host Newcastle United on Boxing Day and the 4 draws from the last 6 Premier League games at Old Trafford is just not good enough for a team that is better than the 8th place they occupy.

Games at home have at least seen Manchester United produce a few more chances in recent weeks and I do think they could be facing Newcastle United at the right time. At this stage of the season managers have to balance their squads with games coming very quickly and I would not be surprised if Steve Bruce will be keeping some players held back for a much more winnable home game against Everton which is played forty-eight hours after this one is concluded.

Bruce has said as much by hinting some players are not able to play twice in a short space of time and I think that could leave Newcastle United vulnerable. They are already weakened at the back with injuries taking a toll and losing Paul Dummett is another blow that should give Manchester United a chance to take advantage.

I expect changes in the home team too after a slow tempo was set by the starters on Sunday. Expect the likes of Andreas Pereira and possibly Brandon Williams being drafted in, while Mason Greenwood must deserve an opportunity.

The biggest key could be a return to starting action for Paul Pogba who made a big difference in the time he was on the pitch on Sunday. A player who is looking to pass the ball forward with quality has been missing and Pogba showed enough to believe two more days of training will be good enough for him to start as long as he has not had a negative reaction to the first football played since the end of September.

I think Pogba will help break down a Newcastle United team that will be looking to sit in deep and I would not be surprised if Bruce has targeted the two home games coming up as being more important than this one. It might offer Manchester United a rare opportunity to beat a club sitting below them in the Premier League table and I think the home team can be backed to cover the Asian Handicap considering the chances they have been creating and the addition of Pogba to the starting ine up.

Manchester United are not easy to back at the prices for obvious reasons, but I think they should have enough to beat a Newcastle United team who have lost 5 of their last 7 away from home.


Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: The final Premier League game to be played on Boxing Day is a big one as it is being competed by the current top two in the table, but some of the power of the match has to have been lost by the manner in which Leicester City were beaten by Manchester City on Saturday.

Just judging that one result you can't really criticise Brendan Rodgers and his players as many will have been outplayed by Manchester City.

But this has come at a time when Manchester City have looked vulnerable and Leicester City were trying to show they are genuine title contenders. Instead of showing that, The Foxes were beaten convincingly and are 10 points behind Liverpool having played a game more.

Anything less than a win would make it very difficult to believe Leicester City will be able to close that gap in the second half of the season. They have to knock Liverpool's confidence by beating them and hoping others can follow suit, but it won't be easy for Leicester City having been given the runaround by Manchester City just a few days ago.

Thankfully for them, Liverpool needed Extra Time to win the World Club Cup against Flamengo on Saturday and will be travelling back to England to prepare for this Premier League game. The League leaders are missing some defenders and Fabinho which may give Leicester City some encouragement, especially when you see chances the likes of Watford and Monterrey have created against Liverpool of late.

Controlling the front three is a difficult task though and games between Leicester City and Liverpool have been high-scoring ones in recent seasons. They already shared out three goals at Anfield this season which means 6 of the last 7 Premier League games between the clubs have resulted in that total mark being hit.

4 of the last 5 Premier League games between these clubs at the King Power Stadium have also seen three or more goals shared out and I would be surprised if both teams do not score here. The 1-1 won't be a bad result for Liverpool who will be happy to maintain the gap to Leicester City, but the home team pushing on could leave them open at the back and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out on Boxing Day.


Wolves v Manchester City Pick: It does feel like the Premier League title is going to be beyond Manchester City already as they face an eleven point deficit to leaders Liverpool who have a game in hand. Pep Guardiola is hoping the likes of Leicester City, Wolves and Sheffield United can step up when they face Liverpool, but his own Manchester City team face each of those opponents in the immediate game before they go on and face Liverpool.

Last Saturday Manchester City came from behind to beat Leicester City convincingly at the Etihad Stadium and they have some momentum behind them. There is no doubt that Manchester City are a team who could string ten or eleven League wins in a row and they are going to be a tough test for anyone they face.

There have been times Manchester City have not convinced at the back though and those vulnerabilities have been exposed by teams who can counter with pace. One of those was Wolves who won 0-2 at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season and I think the home team are going to pose plenty of questions for Manchester City on Friday evening.

Wolves have been in good form and they should have at least avoided a defeat when hosting Tottenham Hotspur in their last game here. There are still some questions about them from a defensive point of view though and I think this is a game that can see both teams having their chances to score.

That has been the outcome in 6 of the last 7 away Manchester City games played in all competitions while it has also happened in 4 of the last 5 home Wolves Premier League games. I would be surprised if Manchester City didn't score as they have been very productive in the final third all season and have Sergio Aguero back in contention, while Wolves have been creative in the final third and will exploit spaces that Manchester City leave behind.

It is an attractive price and I think backing both teams to score is the right play.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Coral (2 Units)
Everton-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Sheffield United @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Manchester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

December 2019/20: 12-10, + 1.40 Units (44 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 19

I don't know what has happened over the last month, but the slip from around 75K in the FPL game to down to 800K has been as frustrating as it could be.

It goes back to all of the early mistakes with my Captain and those points that have been left on the table, but I have also not had a lot of luck with the players picked. Twice in the last six weeks my Captain has had a goal ruled out by the nonsense VAR system used by the Premier League, while I seem to be on the wrong side of some form (Todd Cantwell, I hope you are well).

We have only reached the halfway mark of the season though and I am not going to worry too much about the slide knowing things could quickly change back in my favour. The decision to still manage without the top two Leicester City players has continued to hurt me, but I am not going to let this season go the way of the 2015/16 campaign and that was in my mind when making my Wild Card selections.

This week I won't be making any transfers as I had looked to put a squad together that could negotiate the GW18 and GW19 schedules. I am also going to stick with one Captain during this very busy festive period, although bringing in Harry Kane to do that job was not an effective one as I finished with the same amount of points as the average.

My GW19 Fantasy Team

Paulo Gazzaniga- the performance in GW18 summed up my last month... He doesn't just concede twice, but concedes the most ridiculous penalty you will see. Would have underlined the nonsense of the last month if he had been sent off, but a home game with Brighton is a chance to make amends.

Serge Aurier- might not be the best defender in the world, but a real outlet for Spurs in system used by Jose Mourinho and can get amongst the goals and assists.

Harry Maguire- am I biased because I support Manchester United? Maybe, but I do think United can keep a clean sheet on Boxing Day, although I might not bet on that.

John Lundstram- the FPL cult hero has a home game with Watford.

Jack Grealish- one of the rare successes of my Wild Card, Grealish scored again on Saturday and is a big threat for Aston Villa against a defensively weak Norwich City.

Christian Pulisic- did not play on Sunday in the win at Tottenham Hotspur, but I think his underlying stats have been good. Needs a goal, maybe a risky pick if he doesn't start, but I think the American is a good price for now.

Sadio Mane- coming back from Qatar, Liverpool look stronger favourites to win the Premier League title. Winning at the King Power Stadium won't be easy but Mane is a big threat for the League leaders.

Kevin De Bruyne- a cramp ended his game against Leicester City, but he should be good to go by Friday. The Belgian has been in great form for Manchester City.

Wesley- he hasn't scored in months in the Premier League, but Wesley is a stats play considering the chances that have come his way. The goal against Liverpool in the League Cup has to have boosted confidence, but he is a short-term option with games coming up for Aston Villa.

Marcus Rashford- the return of Paul Pogba should boost the Marcus Rashford chances for attacking returns. I think he has been in good form and there are some good fixtures ahead until United travel to Liverpool.

Harry Kane (C)- he has been back in more attacking positions under Mourinho than he was at the end of Mauricio Pochettino's era at Tottenham Hotspur. On penalties and with games against Brighton, Norwich City and Southampton to come I will back Harry Kane as my Captain for the entire festive period.

Bench- Micahel McGovern, James Ward-Prowse (away game at Chelsea, but I don't mind the Southampton midfielder as first sub as he has the set piece threat to surprise), Caglar Soyuncu (hard to expect a clean sheet against Liverpool, but I doubt Leicester City concede more than two goals), Federico Fernandez (there might be some changes to the Newcastle United starting eleven which weakens them for the trip to Old Trafford).

Boxing Day Football Picks 2017 (December 26-28)

There are a host of football matches to be played on Boxing Day in the traditionally busy time of the season in England.

While the players and managers might not be so happy at this time of the year, for football fans it would be strange to have a Winter Break and not have the football to enjoy while also spending some time with families over the Christmas period.

It is another busy round of games and I have the picks from the Premier League below.

I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and an enjoyable last few days in 2017 as another calendar year is about to be in the books.


Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: The opening game in the Premier League on Boxing Day comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur look to back up a solid 0-3 win at Burnley with another three points. They have the chance to put some pressure on the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool by putting up the points before both rivals play and that could see Tottenham Hotspur also move back into the top four.

The win over Burnley will have given the Tottenham Hotspur players a real shot in the arm and they now face a Southampton team who can be tough to break down, but who are not playing with a lot of confidence of their own.

Goals continue to be a problem for Southampton who had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Huddersfield Town on Saturday and the problems in front of goal have been really evidenced away from home.

They do have pace in the forward areas that could pose a threat with Tottenham Hotspur likely to be vulnerable to the counter attack. That pace was seen in the narrow loss at Manchester City, but the concern for Southampton has to be the manner of the losses at Liverpool and Chelsea.

It was a comfortable afternoon for Liverpool and should have been a comfortable win for Chelsea too, except the latter did not show the composure in front of goal to secure a win by more than a single goal margin. After Harry Kane banged in a hat-trick against Burnley I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have a little more clinical finishing than Chelsea did and I fancy the home team to win this one by a couple of goals at least.

Tottenham Hotspur have played well at Wembley Stadium in recent games and they can put together a solid win on the day.


Chelsea v Brighton Pick: It is hard to put a real mark on Chelsea and know where they stand- sometimes I watch a team who look capable of beating anyone on their day, but other times they seem to struggle and look like they are missing something. The draw at Everton was a disappointing result, but Chelsea didn't play badly and I think a return to Stamford Bridge against Brighton gives them every chance to put three points on the board.

The return of Alvaro Morata is important as the Spaniard does offer Chelsea a real focal point to their play and he has fitted in well with his new club. Morata is perhaps not as clinical in front of goal as Chelsea would like, but he pulls the team together and has worked very well with Eden Hazard.

That combination should be too hot for a Brighton team who are off a huge win over Watford, but who have not been as strong away from home. They aren't a team that are likely to be blown away as they have shown toughness in losses at Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, but a lack of goals is an issue.

The layers understand that with Chelsea a short price to win with a clean sheet, but I do think that is the most likely outcome of this one. The Brighton toughness may mean Chelsea have to settle for a pretty narrow win themselves, but I do think Chelsea will have enough to do that.

Backing them to win a game which features three or fewer goals is a tempting price here even if Chelsea might feel someone they face are going to get a hiding sooner rather than later. It might have to wait a few days for that though and I will back a Chelsea win coupled with under 3.5 goals to be scored in the match at a decent looking price.


Manchester United v Burnley Pick: 'Childish mistakes' was the way Jose Mourinho described the Manchester United performance in front of goal and in defence as they missed some glorious chances before the Leicester City equaliser deep into injury time. The manager was not impressed at dropping two points considering how much Manchester United dominated the ninety minutes, but now he has to pick up the players for consecutive games at Old Trafford.

Manchester United have been strong at the Theatre of Dreams in the 2017/18 season and I think they can bounce back from a poor result. They certainly look to be getting to Burnley at a good time with their visitors missing key defensive performers in what has been the foundation for their successes so far this season.

Stephen Ward and James Tarkowski missed the game on Saturday against Tottenham Hotspur and Burnley really did not look right defensively. The 0-3 loss could have come by a wider margin, although Burnley may be able to set up even more defensively away from home than they perhaps would like to at Turf Moor.

That could see Burnley make life difficult for a Manchester United team that potentially are feeling sorry for themselves, but I do think the home side will create chances in this one. Playing at Old Trafford has been a pleasant experience for the players this season and Manchester United will feel a similar level to the one they produced at the King Power Stadium will be enough to win this game.

I respect the fact that Burnley could make this difficult as they have for other top six clubs away from home this season.

But this might be a good time for Manchester United to face them and I will back Mourinho to find the right formula to see United win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Watford v Leicester City Pick: You have to think that Marco Silva will help Watford turn around their form sooner rather than later, but the fans may have to be patient. With injuries and suspensions decimating the squad, Watford are struggling and I think they are going to have a difficult time dealing with Leicester City.

The run of 4 straight losses has to come to an end soon, but Leicester City have found a formula for playing away from home and I think that shows up here.

Leicester City have scored at least three goals in wins at Newcastle United and Southampton and they have a little more confidence than Watford which could make the difference in this fixture.

It certainly doesn't look right to have Leicester City as the underdog in this fixture and backing them with a start on the Asian Handicap returns a winner as long as they don't lose this game. On current form I would expect Leicester City to at least earn a draw against a Watford team who conceded four times in a 1-4 loss to Huddersfield Town last time out at Vicarage Road.

Defensively it has been a struggle for Watford for much of the season and I expect Leicester City to expose those vulnerabilities as they force a result.


West Brom v Everton Pick: This is a set of prices that jumped off the screen when I was looking through the Premier League games for the Boxing Day fixtures. I am not sure what West Brom have done to be given the tag of favourites in this one against an improving Everton team and that makes the underdog worth backing on the Asian Handicap.

Sam Allardyce has made Everton much tougher to beat and defensively they have improved considerably already. With the problems West Brom are having in front of goal, it is hard to see how The Baggies can cause Everton enough problems to win the game, especially as there have been one or two issues defensively in recent games.

That should give Everton a chance to at least score one goal which should be enough to avoid defeat and potentially enough to win the game. Everton have a very good recent record at The Hawthorns which makes them a more appealing prospect to back on Boxing Day, and getting a start seems generous.

It will need an Everton win for a full pay out, but returns a winner as long as Everton earn any kind of result here. They certainly look good enough to do that considering the recent form of the two teams and this is the kind of game where Allardyce will look to make sure his Everton team don't lose and keep pulling away from the bottom three.

Wayne Rooney should be back to give Everton a bit more of a threat going forward and I like them here.


Liverpool v Swansea City Pick: Jurgen Klopp has cut something of a frustrated figure in recent games as Liverpool have perhaps not finished games as well as he would have liked. This is a team who have dropped a number of points from winning positions against Everton and Arsenal which has irritated the manager who has then been testy with the media.

Klopp's Liverpool are still in the top four though and they have a couple of important games at Anfield to come in the days ahead. They certainly look good enough to get back to winning ways in the League at home having drawn 3 in a row at Anfield, but Liverpool have to stop giving away as many goals as they have been.

Mistakes have been hard to erase, but Liverpool have been better defensively when they have played at home. That should show up against a Swansea City team who needed something special to unlock Crystal Palace last time out and who have been goal-shy all season.

It is a big reason Swansea City are at the bottom of the Premier League table and they do look like they are missing something in the final third. The upcoming transfer window will be important for Swansea City to resolve that, but I expect that to be an issue for them on Boxing Day.

With the attacking talent Liverpool have, I think it is hard to see them failing to score in this one and ultimately that should be enough to secure the three points. The Handicaps look wide enough to ignore when you do think of the recent Liverpool failures to win games, but I do believe they get back to winning ways on Boxing Day.

Backing Liverpool to win with a clean sheet looks the way to go here and can be found at decent enough prices.


Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: You have to think that Manchester City are going to eventually hit a poor run of form, but at the moment they look some way away from that happening. Perhaps the late wins over Huddersfield Town and Southampton a few weeks ago are as bad as it will get for Manchester City in the Premier League as they have continued to wear down opponents with their passing and movement too much for teams to handle.

This is a tougher test than the layers may think though as Newcastle United earned a confidence boosting win over West Ham United on Saturday. In saying that, Newcastle United have lost 4 straight games at home and so the layers are not giving anything away on the Manchester City price to win here.

I do anticipate Manchester City will find a way to put another three points on the board with the way they are performing. With the way the schedule has worked out, Pep Guardiola doesn't have to make wide rotation changes and Manchester City look to have the talent to prove to be the difference makers in this one.

However Manchester City haven't had it all their own way in recent away games and that is the angle I am going to play in this one. While they have been winning games, I think Manchester City are facing a Newcastle United team who will be happy to defend in numbers and so it could be a difficult time breaking them down.

I like Manchester City to win a game where there are fewer than four goals scored and that would have been a winner in 3 consecutive Manchester City away Premier League games before their 0-4 win at Swansea City. Newcastle United have conceded three times in 2 of their last 4 at home which is a concern, but they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 at St James' Park.

Manchester City look a short price to win with a clean sheet, but the bigger price of them winning a game in which less than four goals are scored is more appealing. There is every chance Manchester City blow away Newcastle United as they have done so many, but they've not been completely dominant in recent away games and they could settle for another narrow win to keep the points churning out.

Only 1 Newcastle United home game has seen more than three goals shared out this season and so backing Manchester City to win a 'low scoring' game is the call at odds against.


Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: This is another live offering from the Premier League this week in a busy festive period and I have to say that I am surprised Arsenal are as short a price to win as they are. As much quality as Arsenal clearly have in the squad, this is a team who have not played as well away from home as they have at the Emirates Stadium and that does not seem to be factored into the price.

In recent weeks Arsenal have needed a controversial penalty to win at Burnley, another late goal to earn a draw at Southampton and also drawn at West Ham United. That is not a great set of results and now they have to face a Crystal Palace team who have been playing very well of late.

You do have to put that into perspective though as Crystal Palace have not faced the best teams in the Premier League in recent weeks. They have beaten Chelsea at home though and Crystal Palace are a side who create chances and score goals at Selhurst Park with at least two goals scored in each of their last 6 home Premier League games.

Defensively you can get at Crystal Palace here though and the layers aren't offering great prices on there being at least three goals in this one.

However my lean was already towards backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap considering their recent form at home. The win over Chelsea shows they are capable of beating a top team here, while Arsenal have not played as well away from home and needed some luck to earn positive results.

A lack of goals on their travels has to be a concern for Arsenal and I think it is tough to expect them to win this game if Crystal Palace score twice at home again.

And with the start being given to Crystal Palace, only a defeat by two or more goals will mean a full loss, while a defeat by one goal will at least return half the stake. I actually think Crystal Palace can get a result in this one and they are a big price with the start on the Asian Handicap as far as I am concerned.

Arsenal on their day can be near unplayable, but the prices here look short considering they have won just 2 of 9 away Premier League games. The Gunners have lost at Stoke City and drawn at both Southampton and West Ham United and I think Crystal Palace are playing better than those sides to think they can at least do the same.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Crystal Palace + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)