Weekend Football Picks 2018 (April 21-23)

The biggest news in English Football was the decision made by Arsene Wenger to step down as manager of Arsenal after twenty-two years in charge of the club.

While Wenger has rightly been lauded in many quarters since the decision was revealed, I also think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Arsenal have slid massively in the last few years of his tenure at the Emirates Stadium.

Stubbornness has not helped Wenger who has refused to make the signings that everyone has been crying out for which would have made Arsenal more competitive. And it does feel this decision is a few years later than most Arsenal fans would have wanted, although at least Wenger is going to be given a positive send off which is the least he deserves.

Winning the Europa League would be the perfect way to underline his time at Arsenal, but that is for another day with another round of Premier League games to be played this weekend. We also have two FA Cup Semi Final ties to be played on Saturday and Sunday.


West Brom v Liverpool Pick: This is a chance for Liverpool to put the Premier League to the back of their minds and concentrate fully on an assault to win the Champions League if they are able to win on Saturday.

A win would likely be enough to secure a top four spot in the Premier League which is the main goal for Liverpool this season and they are certainly good enough to earn that at The Hawthorns.

You have to consider the fact that Liverpool could make changes to the starting eleven for this fixture as they are facing Roma in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg on Tuesday. If they rest some of the big names for that First Leg then winning at The Hawthorns will be that much more difficult, but I am going to second guess Jurgen Klopp and expect a strong team to be named to secure a top four berth and then rest players the rest of the way.

They will need to be at their best to beat West Brom after the relegation threatened club secured a stunning 0-1 win at Old Trafford last Sunday. That should focus the Liverpool minds, but I also think West Brom were given a lot of belief by a poor Manchester United performance.

In recent weeks West Brom have not had a lot of belief in what they are trying to do and that saw them lose 9 games in a row before sacking Alan Pardew. The players are playing for Darren Moore, but they were poor two weeks ago in a 1-1 draw with Swansea City and this Liverpool team are capable of putting them to the sword and then being able to rest their key men in the second half.

I expect that will be the request from Klopp and Liverpool are capable of winning with some comfort on the day. West Brom can score goals at home, but Liverpool have defended much better in recent weeks and I will back the away side to give themselves a boost for the Champions League with a good looking win on Saturday lunch time.


Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The end of the last couple of Premier League seasons have seen Watford struggle to maintain their concentration once their relegation battle has been concluded with a success. The same has happened this season as they have been beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and that won't be good news for those teams still fighting against relegation.

The reason for that is Watford host Crystal Palace this weekend and the away side come in with plenty of motivation and also positive form as they bid for another victory. The three points on offer could be enough for Crystal Palace to ensure they avoid relegation and they are playing well enough to do that.

Wilfried Zaha is in fine form and Crystal Palace have their attacking players back to give them a boost in confidence. They need the goals because Crystal Palace have continued to struggle defensively and Watford have been stronger at home which suggests they could take advantage of those problems at the back.

Watford have scored in their last 13 home games in all competitions and I think they are still showing enough to think they can create chances. However Watford have not looked that convincing defensively which is where Crystal Palace should have their joy and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals in this one.

Both teams could easily score and the three points on offer should mean Crystal Palace are pushing to score the goals to earn those points. With Watford at home they will be pressed by the fans to attack too and I can see there being enough chances in this fixture to see goals arrive.


Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a long time coming, but Arsene Wenger has finally decided to step down as manager of Arsenal with the team on course for their lowest finish under his tenure. While most Arsenal fans will be happy, the players have a chance to show their appreciation for the manager with a strong end to the season and a possible return to the Champions League.

The team selection did not help Arsenal's cause in their defeat at Newcastle United last weekend, but it was also a real indicator of how they have played away from home. Once again they lost a game in which they had led and that has been a source of frustration for Arsene Wenger all season.

Playing at the Emirates Stadium has been much more positive for the Arsenal players and it has been suggested a strong team will be picked even with the Atletico Madrid Europa League tie in mind.

Wenger wants momentum and he wants his key players to be mentally ready for the Europa League Semi Final so he will also expect a big performance from those players. It can be difficult for players to avoid the distraction of bigger games to come, but the loss last weekend should be enough to keep them focused.

They will need to do that against a West Ham United team who are unbeaten in 3 Premier League games and still searching for one more win to ensure they avoid the drop. David Moyes will look to set his team up to frustrate their hosts, but West Ham United have not been as good at doing that away from home although they have found a way to score goals.

Unfortunately they do concede plenty of chances and a strong Arsenal team can go into the Europa League Semi Final First Leg with some positives behind them. I will look for the home team to have a little too much creativity in the final third and break down this West Ham United team for a win by a couple of goals on the day.


Stoke City v Burnley Pick: The performances from Stoke City under Paul Lambert have not been bad, but a lack of goals and losing winning positions have put them on the brink of being relegated from the Premier League. Anything less than a win on Sunday may be costly for Stoke City who probably need 3 wins from their final 4 League games to have any chance of escaping the drop.

This may be a fixture that represents a good chance to earn the first of those wins after Burnley had a tough evening on Thursday competing against Chelsea. There won't be many changes to the Burnley starting eleven which means tiredness could work against them as this game goes on, but Burnley have proven themselves to be defensively resolute.

The home team have simply not scored enough goals to be warranted as a pretty short favourite to win this game, especially when you think of the lack of wins under Paul Lambert.

Stoke City do get on the front foot and have some talented players that could cause problems for Burnley, but I imagine Sean Dyche will have his players well drilled for this fixture even on the short turnaround from Thursday's game.

Burnley may not have the best recent record at Stoke City, but they have played with a lot more belief than their hosts all season. As long as Burnley remain as tough as they have been defensively, I think they will have an opportunity to at least earn a point here and backing the visitors with a start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go.


Manchester City v Swansea City Pick: A party atmosphere in the stands can sometimes filter down to the players, but I would be surprised if Pep Guardiola allows his Manchester City team to ease off the throttle in their final League games. Instead I imagine this is a time when he will want this team to lay down a marker for next season and underline their desire for future success too.

The game on Sunday does look a good opportunity for Manchester City to express themselves as they go up against a Swansea City team who have not been as secure defensively as they once looked under Carlos Carvalhal. The Swans have kept the points ticking over to keep their head above water in the Premier League, but they were clearly second best in a 2-0 loss at Manchester United at the end of March and it is a big test for them here.

They don't have anything to lose so Swansea City can try and express themselves, but that might leave them a little open to a Manchester City team who have been in imperious form at home for much of the season.

And it could be dangerous to be too open against a team who are trying to snap a 3 game losing run at the Etihad Stadium, although I am not convinced Swansea City will get much here regardless of the system employed.

If you defend in numbers you can limit the damage done by the home team, but Manchester City are well rested and ready to celebrate and I can see this being a comfortable win for the home team. They have struggled to win their recent home games against Swansea City, but this Manchester City team look much stronger than recent editions and I think it could be a long afternoon for their visitors.

Manchester City won 0-4 at the Liberty Stadium, but they could settle for a margin of one less than that. Regardless, I am going to back Manchester City to cover a big Asian Handicap as they celebrate the title with a stylish win.


Everton v Newcastle United Pick: For most fans the difference between finishing 9th and 10th in the Premier League table may not be here nor there, but for clubs there is a financial reward for a higher League finish. That may be the only thing on the mind of those in the board room when Everton host Newcastle United on Monday Night Football, but the players should be free enough to perform as they would like.

Newcastle United are on a very good run of 4 consecutive wins which has pulled them away from the bottom three, and they won their last away game at Leicester City. That should give them enough belief they can head to Goodison Park and pose problems for an Everton team who have not won any of their last 3 League games.

However you can't ignore the fact that Everton have played 2 of the top four in that time and they have generally performed better at home. Some of the football has been disappointing under Sam Allardyce and that has put the fans off from backing him to stay in charge of the club, but no one can deny it has mainly been effective to make sure Everton were not involved in a relegation battle.

The home form has generally been pretty good under Allardyce and only the 1-1 home draw with West Brom under the former England manager could be seen as a poor result. Everton have beaten West Ham United, Huddersfield Town, Swansea City, Leicester City, Crystal Palace and Brighton at home since Allardyce took over as manager and the other failures to win games here outside of the West Brom game have been against top five clubs.

Everton have a strong record at home against Newcastle United and I think they can win this fixture too. I don't doubt that Newcastle United are playing well enough to earn a result here, but I lean towards Everton and backing them on the Asian Handicap will return half the stake if this does end in a draw.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is a heatwave in the United Kingdom with some unusually high April temperatures in London which could play a real part in this FA Cup Semi Final. The fans will be hoping the football on the pitch can match the weather as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet for a place in the Cup Final on May 19th.

Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some questions to answer having had an up and down week in the Premier League in the chase for one of the top four positions.

At least Manchester United bounced back from a stunning loss to West Brom by beating Bournemouth on Wednesday night whereas Tottenham Hotspur have failed to win either of their last 2 League games.

Losing back to back games at Wembley Stadium will also be on the mind of the Tottenham Hotspur players despite their familiarity with what has been 'home' in the 2017/18 season. That has given Tottenham Hotspur an edge in this Semi Final and has to be considered one of the main reasons they are favoured to beat Manchester United having done the same in the Premier League in January.

That game was changed completely after Tottenham Hotspur scored in the opening seconds, but this time Manchester United may come in with more belief having beaten the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City recently. The loss to West Brom was a strange day, but the bounce back at Bournemouth and 7 wins from 9 games means Manchester United do come in with confidence.

Tottenham Hotspur's familiarity with Wembley Stadium may give them plenty of belief of their own and I think this will be a good Cup Semi Fina.

My lean is that Manchester United do earn the result to take them through to the FA Cup Final for the second time in three years. However Tottenham Hotspur won't go down without a fight either and the attacking players should have opportunities in this one with every chance of seeing three goals shared out by the teams.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This FA Cup Semi Final may mean a great deal more to Chelsea than Southampton in the grand scheme of things, but playing at Wembley Stadium with a trophy just two games away is not something to ignore for the Southampton players.

This is a team who reached the League Cup Final last season but things have taken a rapid downward swing since that day. Now it looks like Southampton are destined for relegation down to the Championship as they have slumped in the Premier League and the focus has to be in avoiding the drop.

Of course they won't want to throw away the FA Cup Semi Final, but Mark Hughes has suggested he will freshen things up and I think he may consider resting key players for the final four League games.

Antonio Conte's focus is much easier to understand as he bids to help Chelsea win their remaining fixtures regardless of how that will affect his future as manager of the club. Winning out will give Chelsea an outside chance of a top four finish, but Conte will get the chance to sign off with a trophy and that has to be at the forefront of his mind.

Recent Chelsea performances will encourage Conte with impressive wins over Southampton and Burnley particularly the way Chelsea have rallied under pressure. The win over Southampton gives Chelsea a real mental advantage in this Semi Final and they will feel they can expose what has been a shaky defensive unit to say the least.

Chelsea look more secure with their formation and the team that is likely going to be picked and I would be surprised if they can't make it three wins in a week. The likes of Eden Hazard and Willian are well rested and should be ready to make an impact in this Semi Final and I am going to back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day as they punish Southampton for chasing a way back into this one late in the day.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (April 21-23)

The Champions League and Europa League Semi Final line up will be set this week as the Second Legs of the Quarter Finals are completed. A couple of teams will already feel they have done enough from the First Legs last week, namely Barcelona and Napoli, but the other six ties to be played this week are finely poised.

Most eyes will likely be on Munich on Tuesday to see whether Bayern Munich can overturn a surprising 3-1 deficit against Porto, while on Wednesday the eighth Madrid derby of the season is played after a goalless draw last week.

Big games should produce some big moments over the next three days.


Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: It was a remarkably one-sided game in the First Leg as Barcelona dominated proceedings and deserved their victory in Paris. Barring a late defensive mistake, Barcelona would have already wrapped up their place in the Semi Final, but this is still a huge advantage and it will take something special for Paris Saint-Germain to earn a result.

The problem for the French side will be trying to get enough possession to score the three goals they need in the Nou Camp, while of course the big threat from the Barcelona front three means it is almost impossible to imagine a situation where the home team don't score.

Gaps are likely to open up if Paris Saint-Germain decide to chase the game, while injuries to key defensive figures mean it will be tough to contain what Barcelona throw at them. The returns of Marco Verratti and Zlatan Ibrahimovic from suspension means Paris Saint-Germain have two crucial figures back, but that won't help them keeping the backdoor closed and I think Barcelona are going to be far too strong for their visitors again.

In the last Round, Barcelona missed a host of chances to really hammer Manchester City and there is that to be concerned about as they won't need to win this game to progress. However, you have to think if those chances come again, the likes of Luis Suarez, Neymar and Lionel Messi won't be as proliferate again and with Paris Saint-Germain having to push on there should also be spaces to exploit.

I don't think Paris Saint-Germain will push forward too early, but Barcelona will really take advantage if they get in front in this tie and record a third comfortable victory over Paris Saint-Germain this season.


Bayern Munich v Porto Pick: I don't think I was the only person surprised by the manner of Porto's win over Bayern Munich last weekend, although the 3-1 margin wasn't enough for the layers to consider the Portuguese side the favourites to progress to the Semi Final.

However, it is a big advantage and I think the layers are perhaps overestimating Bayern Munich on past experiences, although it has to be said that they are dominant in front of their own fans.

The first goal is going to be so important in this Second Leg- you'd feel a Bayern Munich goal could inspire them to earn the win by at least two goals to try and book a place in the Semi Final. The Porto players could retreat and look to defend what they have which is very difficult at Bayern Munich and I'd favour the German side to qualify.

However, a Porto goal could see them counter-attack Bayern Munich and pick them off as they search for the three goals they would then need to progress. It is a tight balance in the tie, but I can't imagine Bayern Munich playing as badly as they did last week for the second time in this Quarter Final and I do think they will win this game.

Will it be enough to progress? I think there is every chance Bayern Munich will be too good for Porto this time around, but the pace in the forward positions that Porto have can't be ignored. Still, I fancy Bayern Munich to turn this tie around and win by a couple of goals at least.


Monaco v Juventus Pick: This might be the perfect position for Juventus to be in heading to Monaco as they look a team that is very comfortable playing on the counter-attack as they did in their victory at Borussia Dortmund in the last Round.

I also believe Monaco are much more comfortable when they are not being asked to push forward in search of goals and that is not something they can do with a deficit to chase. They prefer playing on the counter-attack themselves, but this might be a reverse of the First Leg with Juventus hanging back and Monaco perhaps being caught on the break.

Last week wasn't a great performance from Juventus, but they have the star striker on the field in Carlos Tevez and he will take the chances that he receives on the break and I do think Juventus can win this Second Leg.

Monaco just don't come off as a team that is going to score a lot of goals and while they have pace in forward areas, space might not be available like last week as Juventus draw them on and punish them on the break. That was the way Juventus hammered Borussia Dortmund in the last Round and I think they will be too good for Monaco in this one.

With the home team chasing, Juventus can grab a winning goal in this one and move into the Semi Final.


Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Pick: The First Leg of this Quarter Final had to be one of the more entertaining goalless draws you can get as both Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid created chances in the game at the Vicente Calderon.

Neither team really settled for the goalless draw either as they both attacked until the final minute and you have to think an early goal could really open this Second Leg up.

Real Madrid are the obvious favourites as they are going to be backed at home regardless, but they look remarkably short for a team that has yet to beat Atletico Madrid in seven attempts this season. Add in the fact they have won 1 of their last 6 home games against Atletico Madrid and lost half of those games and all of a sudden backing the visitors to avoid defeat at odds against looks a decent price.

Losing Luka Modric is a big blow to Real Madrid and their chances of winning trophies as the midfielder really bridges the defence to attack very effectively. Gareth Bale is another big loss, although he potentially takes part in this game and Atletico Madrid will believe one goal gives them a great chance of going through.

However, games between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in this Stadium usually do feature goals as there are spaces to be exploited. An early goal will only make it more open and this could be the fourth time in five games at the Santiago Bernebeu that we see at least three goals shared by the teams.

As I say though, an early goal would really open that chance up as teams will have to be a little more proactive. The longer it goes goalless, the more tension will come in and the fear of making a mistake that costs their team a place in the Semi Final will begin to affect the players.

There were enough chances last week to think the first goal can come within the first half hour of this game and that might lead to at least three goals being shared by the teams.


Dnipro v Club Brugge Pick: The game might have finished goalless in Brugge last week, but it was far from a drab affair and Dnipro might be kicking themselves for not grabbing an away goal having had the majority of the chances in the contest.

The feeling will still be that they are in a strong position to advance to the Semi Final, but they can't underestimate a Club Brugge team that has won 6 of 7 away games in the Europa League. The Belgian side will look to get more out of the counter attack in this one, but they also have to try and breach a Dnipro defence that has kept 7 clean sheets in a row at home and also has clean sheets in their last 3 home games in the Europa League.

Dnipro have won those 3 games including in both of the last two Knock Out Rounds and I think the Ukrainian team will have enough to progress to the Semi Final.

They are a decent enough price to back at odds against to win this Second Leg in the ninety minutes, but I think Club Brugge have shown enough through the competition to not be disregarded easily. Instead of just backing Dnipro to win, I am going to keep faith in their defensive performances too and I do think a small interest is warranted on them winning this one with a clean sheet to boot at a big price.


Fiorentina v Dynamo Kiev Pick: A goalless draw might be enough for Fiorentina to move through to the Semi Final, but it would be a real surprise if they want to risk sitting back in this Second Leg after the dominance they showed last week in Kiev. On another day, Fiorentina would have had a lead to take back home and they might also find themselves with more space as their opponents are going to have to score at least once and can't just sit deep like they did for much of the game at home.

Dynamo Kiev just haven't been as good on their travels and I think Fiorentina have a real edge in the tie. However, the confidence in the home dressing room as to have been dented from recent performances. Fiorentina have lost their last 2 home games in all competitions, while they have won 1 in 4 at home in the Europa League so there is plenty of life left in this tie, even if Dynamo Kiev have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home in this competition.

Any team getting ahead should open up spaces again as the team conceding will have to chase the game and this could be quite a fun game, especially if the first goal comes in the first half.

Both teams will have their chances in this one you would think and goals have been something of a feature of Dynamo Kiev's away games in the Europa League this season. Last week would have featured at least three goals with some better finishing in front of goal and this one will see spaces perhaps open up as the game develops which might see more opportunities created.

At odds against, I think backing at least three goals to be scored looks like it could be the right call from this game.


Napoli v Wolfsburg: The tie is over from a competitive standpoint, but Wolfsburg have had a strong season and won't want to exit the Europa League without showing Napoli they are far better than what they produced at home last week. They will likely get a chance to express themselves here as Napoli won't feel the urge to get forward and instead will look to exploit spaces on the counter attack which will suit Rafa Benitez just fine.

It was the high line that Wolfsburg played last week which ended up being a main factor in their downfall, and that might be the way Napoli expose them again this week. However, Wolfsburg are a team that can create chances and any complacency in the home squad thanks to a large lead might also help the German side score goals.

The layers clearly are offering some tempting prices for both teams to win because of the situation of the First Leg and I could make a case for either team winning. Napoli will have a chance on the counter-attack, while Wolfsburg will be looking to save some pride and the home team can take a narrow defeat and still progress.

They are also taking no chances of there being goals in this Second Leg, but I still think it might be worth backing there being at least three goals shared. Wolfsburg will play in a way that Napoli can get some opportunities on the counter-attack, while the German side are far better than what they produced last week. Both Napoli and Wolfsburg home/away games respectively have produced plenty of goals in the Europa League this season and I think this one will follow suit.

Of course there is a chance that some heads will drop in the away team if they fall behind early, but that might see Napoli run away with another big win as long as Rafa Benitez isn't ultra-conservative like he can be in Knock Out ties in European Football. I can see this game going in the 'open' direction though and I will back there being at least three goals shared.


Zenit St Petersburg v Sevilla Pick: It was a real surprise that a Zenit St Petersburg team missing four key players had played so well in Sevilla and the return of the likes of Danny and Hulk has to give the home team real belief they can overturn the 2-1 First Leg deficit.

You would be a fool to think that is a given against the defending Champions of the Europa League and Andre Villas-Boas has made it clear that he still thinks the edge rests with Sevilla. Of course holding a lead is important, but Zenit St Petersburg have been pretty strong defensively, especially at home, and keeping a clean sheet will give the Russian side every chance of stunning Sevilla.

That is also easier said than done as Sevilla have regularly found the net, but they don't travel as well as they play at home and were beaten in away games in the Quarter Final and Semi Final of the Europa League last season.

I do fancy Zenit St Petersburg's chances of coming through this tie when you consider they have clean sheets in 6 of their 7 home games in Europe this season. Earning another will give them every chance of securing the win in the Quarter Final, but I wouldn't be that surprised if this one goes into extra time either. I will back Andre Villas-Boas' men to secure the win in ninety minutes in the Second Leg.

MY PICKS: Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.40 William Hill (2 Units)
Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dnipro Win to Nil @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Fiorentina-Dynamo Kiev Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Napoli-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.30 Bet Fred (2 Units)

April Update: 11-17-1, - 10.93 Units (54 Units Staked, - 20.24% Yield)

March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)